Welcome again. We are sitting here in Orlen Headquarters in a meeting room to discuss Q3 and nine months of 2025, ending September 30th, financial and operating results. We are here in the room with Sławomir Jędrzejczyk, Group CFO, Damian Wieczorek, and my name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations. Please don't... Please mind that we're doing it old school without video, so this is not a malfunction or technical problem. We would like to keep it that way for the time being and maybe further. So we will kick off. We're still having some joiners coming in, but since this is five past already, we'll be kicking off. And I'll hand over to Sławomir, please.
Thank you, Jakub. So good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start only by saying, it's good to be back. Warm welcome to everyone. It's my pleasure and privilege to present Orlen quarterly results. I would like to start with the highlights. First of all, macro environment, and mixed views on that. First of all, lower oil and gas prices, so as you know, that, impacted our upstream business. However, very good refining environment, very high margins. In petrochemicals, still we see market pressure, both in terms of margins and volumes. Electricity, stable prices, and in terms of, retail, fuel retail, we observe lower fuel consumption, especially in diesel. And let's, look at operations, and this is very positive news, I believe. We deliver very good, results in operations, higher gas production, distribution, and sales.
Higher throughput and wholesale fuel sales, however, lower sales in petrochemical, as I said. Higher electricity production and higher non-fuel sales in retail. So as a result, if we look into the financials, we delivered very solid EBITDA close to PLN 9 billion. Very high cash flow from operations altogether for the first nine months of 2025, PLN 34.4 billion. And we managed to continue our CapEx program. Altogether, we spent PLN 21.1 billion for the first three quarters, and we pay record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So as a result, we managed to decrease our debt level by PLN 6 billion in 2025. So now let's move to slide number 4, which is highlights, financial results highlights. As you can see, revenue dropped to PLN 61 billion in the third quarter.
However, that was due to the fact that oil and gas prices were lower. Then very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion. Altogether, close to PLN 30 billion in the first three quarters. Very good cash flow from operations, as I said, although in the third quarter, slightly lower than in past quarters, due to the fact that we increased our working capital by PLN 2 billion in the third quarter, due to the fact that the prices, the prices increased and the volume increased. CapEx, we continue our CapEx program. Our budget was 35, so currently, after three quarters, 21.1. I will come back to this in the slide dedicated to CapEx.
As a result, free cash flow close to PLN 1 billion, and very, very safe net debt position, and net debt to EBITDA of 0.14. So now let's move to EBITDA delivered by segments. As you can see, we delivered good results in all the segments: Upstream and Supply, PLN 3.3 billion; Downstream, PLN 2.4 billion; Energy, PLN 2.2 billion; and Customer and Products, PLN 1.6 billion. So altogether, PLN 8.9 billion. And what's very interesting, I believe, is at the bottom is a change year-on-year. So in Upstream is -3.2, but I would like to pay your attention that basically, the results of 2024 were, let's say, inflated.
1.8 billion out of these 3.2 is basically higher gas prices we achieved in 2024, due to the fact that we contracted 2024 based on 2023 prices. 0.8 is basically purchase price allocation that inflated results in 2024. So you may say that this drop is, of course, due to the fact that there were lower prices of oil and gas. However, please bear in mind that 2024 is not comparable due to those two one-offs, let's say. In Downstream, 1.9 billion higher results, which is, I believe, great due to fantastic macro environment in refining from the refining margin point of view. Very solid results in Energy and Customer and Consumer End Products. Corporate functions increased by more than 200 million.
100 is, you may say, phasing, and 100 is due to the fact that we increased our labor and general expenses by a few percentage points year-on-year. Now, let's move to slide number 6, where we present our operational results, and this is evidence what I said, that from operations, it was a very good quarter. So increased production and wholesale gas sale in Upstream and Supply. We slightly increased crude oil throughput and wholesale fuel sale by 1 percentage points. However, you can observe here minus 16% drop in petrochemical, and this is clear evidence that petrochemicals are under huge pressure, both from petrochemical margin perspective, as well as volumes. In energy, steady growth in almost all sale—all, all areas.
Gas distribution +3%, heat generation +5%, electricity generation +7%, and what's very, very important, residue renewables generation increased by 43%. So what I can say is that currently in the electricity generation, renewables constitute 17%. This is four percentage point increase as compared to last year. As regards consumer end products, very good results in retail gas and electricity sale. However, we see some pressure on the consumption of fuel in Poland, especially diesel. That's why you can see that our retail fuel sale dropped by two percentage point. Now, let's move to each segment where we are elaborate more. So let's start with page number 7, Upstream and Supply. We managed to produce up to 200,000 BOE per day.
Majority of this, more than half of this is, of course, Norway, but then we have Poland, and, the remaining amount is, Canada and Pakistan. Majority of this is gas production, and if you can see, the result is lower by PLN 3.2 billion. But as I explained, upstream, Poland and upstream international, this negative, huge negative impact of lower gas and oil prices was, into some extent or even a big extent, offset by higher production, both in Poland and, Norway. And this PLN 2.8 billion, as I explained, before, basically, this is lower year-realised gas sale price, so you may treat it as a kind of one-off from 2024. And negative impact of the settlement of PPA, this is PLN 0.8 billion, again, from 2024. So now let's move to downstream.
Definitely, high refining margins help us a lot. So in the third quarter, that was almost doubling, $15.2 per barrel. However, petrochemical margin is under pressure, 16% drop to 168 EUR per tonne. But what's very good, I believe, crude oil production improved by 1%, so utilization of our Polish operations was basically 100%, whereas Lithuania, 94%, and in Czech Republic, that was lower utilization, 75%, due to plant and unplanned shutdowns. So there was a failure in Litvínov, so that's why we produced less petrochemical products. So as you can see on this slide, petrochemical is minus ninety-two million contribution to EBITDA LIFO.
However, it... If it hasn't been for Litvínov failure, I believe that would, that would be kind of slight plus in the petrochemical business as well. However, we all know that we are looking at downstream business from the whole value chain perspective, so of course, great refining is offset by weak petrochemical business. However, altogether, I believe downstream delivered very solid results of PLN 2.4 billion. Now, let's move to energy. The biggest improvement, higher results by PLN 500 million, basically, and the biggest improvement is in distribution networks of PLN 318 million, and that was basically due to increase in gas distribution volumes and higher gas and electricity distribution tariffs. In all other areas, as you can see, heating, conventional energy, new energy, and electricity trading, we delivered positive results as well. Now, let's move to consumer end products.
Very stable result in retail, fuel, and shops, and we see some pressure on the consumption and on the volumes. That's why it was a slight, slight drop in this, in that area. However, we managed to regain that drop from the non-fuel sale. We continued our promotions during summer periods, so that decreased the margins. However, we managed to regain that from the non-fuel side. And this increase of PLN 300 million is basically retail, electricity, and gas. But please bear in mind that high part of this increase was, again, a kind of one-off from 2024. That was positive impact of the settlement of PPA, roughly PLN 100 million. So, so slightly, slightly inflated the results. Altogether, PLN 1.6 billion EBITDA. Very good, very good result in consumer end products.
Now, let's move to CapEx. So you can see the split of CapEx, our budgeted CapEx for PLN 25-35 billion, and that's almost evenly spread across upstream, supply, downstream, and energy. However, in the past quarters, we indicated that our CapEx program is roughly between PLN 33 billion and PLN 35 billion Polish złoty. So looking at utilization of CapEx or realization of CapEx, for the first three quarters, probably we may expect to be kind of closer to the lower end of this range. However, we'll see how this develops in the fourth quarter. Of course, we continue our projects in upstream and supply to increase our production according to our strategic goals. In downstream, of course, we have three areas of projects. One is enlarging value chain, which is new chemical project.
Then we improve our product slate, and this is the construction of, for example, hydrocracking unit in Mažeikiai or hydrocracking oil block in Gdańsk. And of course, we are doing projects that create biocomponents, second-generation biocomponent, like production of all bioethanol in Jedlicze. In energy, of course, we all know that energy transformation is not only renewable energy, but we need to absolutely enlarge and modernize distribution networks. So that's why you can see expansion and modernization of power grid and gas distribution network. And our key projects in this renewables energy is, of course, Baltic Sea. So we continue this project, and we target in the second half of 2026 to have this farm fully operational.
We continue as well our CCGT project, and Ostrołęka and Grudziądz in second half of 2026 should be operational. And of course, we started the new projects like CCGT Grudziądz, the second Grudziądz, the second plant, and in Gdańsk. As regards consumer and products, we expand, and modernize, and rebrand our fuel network stations, and we build alternative fuel stations where network. So this is ongoing tasks, and we allocate sufficient CapEx for that, for that project. So now let's move to our liquidity position. On slide number 12, we present the waterfall. So we generated, or we delivered PLN 34.4 billion operational cash flow. That was, of course, inflated by a working capital decrease, PLN 4.8 billion altogether for the first three quarters.
However, the third quarter itself was a kind of PLN -2 billion, so we observed this effect of increasing oil and gas prices, and volumes increased. So we spent investment cash flow PLN 21.9 billion, that includes our leasing cash out, and managed to pay record-high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we decreased our debt by PLN 6 billion. So we are in a very good financial position for the next years to come. We all know that we have quite significant CapEx program for the next three years, so this safe debt position is very helpful. Maturity, this is very important as well. Average maturity, we have like 2020, 2032, and 2033, so like seven years, six, seven years of average maturity.
So to finalize outlook, which is probably the most interesting slide in my presentation, because here we present how we see the macro environment and our operations. We believe that we see fourth quarter, so far at least 25, as compared to third quarter, 25, positively in upstream and energy segments, more or less stable in downstream, and lower due to seasonality in customer and products. If we did deep dive a little bit in all the segments, so in upstream and supply, higher production, because we don't have any significant maintenance works. We expect higher gas prices due to seasonality and higher sales volumes as well. However, lower oil prices that can, of course, impact upstream business as well.
But altogether, we believe it can be, at least, as I said so far, good, good quarter for us. From the energy point of view, again, seasonality, so higher production, sales, and distribution, higher heat production, higher electricity quotations, and higher gas prices may affect slightly negatively, of course, the energy segment, however, altogether positive as well. Mixed views in downstream, of course. Refining is absolutely great, as we know, so this continues to be great. However, we may expect a little bit lower throughput, lower fuel wholesale volumes due to seasonality, and of course, challenging environment in petrochemical business. So that's why, all in all, probably, kind of a stable situation is the most probable outcome in downstream. Consumer and products, due to seasonality, we expect lower fuel sale and, energy and gas negative as well.
Of course, higher gas sales volumes, but we expect a negative impact of electricity tariff reduction and maintained frozen prices for household. So that concludes my presentations, so we are ready now for Q&A. So, Jakub?
Yeah. Thank you very much. As usual, I would like to take your questions by seeing who raised their hand first, and surprisingly, but not so much to ourselves, it's Anna from UBS, who's gonna be asking the first question. Please go ahead. Anna, we can't hear you.
Can you hear me now?
Yeah, fine. Thanks.
Okay, perfect. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First will be around the wholesale margin in the refining. Can you please provide more details around what is the dynamic there? Because it looks like given how strong the refining margins currently are, it should be a very good support for the downstream segment in fourth quarter. And my second question will be around Azoty Polymers, if you can provide any color around when can we expect any updates for the deal? Thank you.
Okay, thank you for your questions. As regards the first one, we have slide number 17, where we present the kind of the most current, macro situation, the fourth quarter. As you can see, model refining margin is absolutely extraordinary. This is $ 18.4 per barrel. We all know the macro environment, I believe, so I'm not going to elaborate much on that. This is definitely due to, due to shortage of supply and basically the situation in Russia or the war in Ukraine. So this continue to be like that. Of course, in our base case scenario for the next quarters to come, we don't assume such a high refining margins. This is definitely extraordinary from our, from our perspective. As regards the polymers projects, I can only confirm what is officially published.
That means that we put on our offer of PLN 1 billion, cash-free, debt-free, and our offer is valid officially till the end of this year. So we, we are waiting still for the response of Grupa Azoty. So no progress, let me... official progress, at least from what we are hearing, in that, in that area. Hopefully, hopefully, this will develop in a positive way, but it's too early to conclude.
Thank you very much. Regarding the wholesale refining margins, which you mentioned are a bit on the lower side, what's driving that?
You mean this model refining margin, as I explained?
No, no, no, like in the comments for the downstream segment, for example-
Okay.
One of the reasons you mentioned, like, lower wholesale margin. So can you please clarify there, what does it mean?
Yeah, this is more or less like Inland Premium we generate, and this is due to seasonality and lower consumption. So that's why this is our indication that in the wholesale business, the margins can be slightly lower. So this is basically the explanation.
Do you see the, those getting worse in fourth quarter, or it will be stable?
Sorry?
Time is tracking. Could you please say it again?
Comparing in fourth quarter to third quarter, do you expect it to worsen further, or will it be stable?
You mean third... fourth quarter?
Fourth quarter versus third quarter.
We expect to be slightly lower, of course, as we indicated here, lower wholesale margins in refining. Yes.
Understood.
But slightly lower due to seasonality, basically. So this is not going to be a significant impact, I guess, as positive impact of model refining margin, definitely.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Tomasz Krukowski, Santander, please go ahead. We can't hear you.
Oh, yeah, I think you can hear me now.
Yes.
Tomasz Kurkowski, Santander. Three questions. The first one is, specifically to Mr. Jędrzejczyk, and actually, I would like to hear your view on the dividend policy of the company. The company has a dividend policy, we are aware of that, but I'm wondering whether do you fully support this policy or you would like to introduce some changes to it? So this is the first one. The second is, on the Energa situation, if you could, give us some color in new direction, the analysis which you are performing is going. The third one is, on the refining. You already mentioned that you do not expect the refining macro to be so strong, going forward, but actually, what is your reading of the situation right now?
I mean, do you see any kind of lack of the product on the market which is driving the prices? How is the situation with the Russian imports? What's your take on this? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you so much. As regards dividend policy, of course, we have official dividend policy, which was approved by the management board and the supervisory board, so definitely is still valid, and I'm in a position individually to change it, of course. I can give you just my comment on dividend, and I express those comments all the time. I was CFO in Orlen a few years ago. Basically, my view is that the best dividend policy is basically to prove to the market that we are dividend-paying company, and consistently each year to pay slightly higher dividend.
So if there is no extraordinary situation, my personal view is that Orlen absolutely should be a dividend-paying company, and we try to pay, pay, slightly higher each year, which was included in the strategy of Orlen from 2025. And the second point, Energa. My comment on Energa is as follows: we have four segments, as we know, and we are much bigger due to those acquisitions we did a few years ago. So now, absolutely, we should focus on creating a very efficient four business lines, and we are working on this efficiency in all the segments. So not only energy segment, but as well in upstream, and supply, and customer, and product. So this is, this is the task which is ahead of us. We should create as agile and as flexible organization as we can.
Of course, we are very, very complicated business, but we should be as, as I said, as agile and flexible because macro environment can be challenging, can be dynamic. So that's why we are focusing to create in energy as well, a very solid business line. However, no formal final decisions have been made so far, so it's difficult for me to comment at this stage, apart from all official information we put, what is going to happen with Energa. As regards refining margin, so I believe I said that this is basically perception of the market, and the shortage of fuels, which is due to the fact that some installations in Russia were attacked by, by Ukraine. So basically, there's shortage of fuel, and this is basically the main, the main...
We don't expect this situation continue, in a sense that it would, it would be absolutely unwise to create base case scenario based on this margin. So that's why I said that in our base case scenario for the next year and for the next years, of course, we don't assume double-digit refining margin, so that we are a little bit conservative, let's say, looking into the current situation. And it's better to be conservative, I believe, in this area than to create a business plan and then CapEx and cash out based on the huge refining margin. So that's, that's my comment on that.
Actually, do you see the lack of the product on the market? Do you have the clients calling you and saying, "Give me more Diesel. Sell me more Diesel?
As regards our markets, no, we don't see shortage. So from our perspective, absolutely, we are full of products.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Tomek. Michał Kozak, please go ahead. We can't hear you.
Okay. So the first question, again, about dividend policy. Will the payout still be based on operating cash flow rather than free cash flow?
So as I said, the policy, and of course, we would... Unless we change it, we are going to follow it. So as regards dividend policy, this is, as you know, up to 25% operational free cash flow, minus interest, but this is up to. So each time, each time, as you can imagine, we look before we give the final recommendation. As regards dividend payout, we look into current financial situation, current financial standing, and of course, we will propose this dividend in the second quarter of next year, probably. So we have still two quarters to go. So we will see how the market develops, how our cash flow look like, how our CapEx programs continue, and then we'll make the final decision. But yes, this is our
Okay, so you don't assume any changes in dividend policy?
Unless we update our strategy and we change.
Okay, thanks. The second question from my side, isn't your approach too conservative when you look at downstream segment for the fourth quarter, assuming current $25 dollars-
Of course,
... refining margin?
Of course, this is our perception. Maybe that's my view. It's better to be slightly less conservative than more optimistic. However, this is our assumption based on six weeks of the fourth quarter, so still we have six weeks to go, and anything can happen. So this is our impression so far, and so absolutely. If you look purely from the refining margin, model refining margin perspective, which is more than PLN 18 billion, 18 million, 18, $18 per barrel, so this is absolutely great. However, we have some challenges, as you know, in petrochemical business. Our petrochemical margin is lower than the third quarter. Of course, our volume should be slightly higher. We still don't know from the operations point of view, how our assets will operate, so that's why we are more cautious on that.
That's why we present more or less stable situation. Stable situation means small pluses, small minuses, and we'll see. We'll see how the fourth quarter fu-
... Okay, thank you.
Okay, Michał, we don't have follow-ups. Please, Ricardo, Morgan Stanley.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes.
Okay. Good morning. Couple questions on my side, if I may. The first one, it's on the CapEx. You mentioned that you're probably gonna be at the lower end of the guidance of PLN 33 billion for this year. Can we assume that those that the PLN 2 billion would be spent next year, or do you expect some CapEx savings and you might not have to disburse those PLN 2 billion? And then the second one, it's on the consumer and product segment. You're talking about some of the margin pressures because of promos during the summer, just how the market is in Poland now. Do you still see some pressures there, and you're still having to do some promos?
When should we expect margins to stabilize or even see some inflection on the margin side? Thank you.
Thank you so much. So as regards CapEx, if you assume that we have the budget of PLN 35 billion, and I said that the range was PLN 33 billion-PLN 35 billion. So basically, there are two items, two big items that affects lower CapEx utilization. First one is CapEx spend on gas ships. Probably, we explained that in the base case CapEx, we assumed four ships to be delivered. However, this year, only two will be delivered, and the next two will be delivered next year. So that's why out of PLN 2.4 billion CapEx, PLN 1.2 billion will be booked this year, and PLN 1.2 billion will be booked next year. So this is a kind of movement to next year.
And second PLN 1 billion, we explained probably, as far as my colleague told me, it was first quarter upstream projects, so we decided to just not to continue with one of the project there. That's why we decreased the CapEx plan for upstream. It's difficult for me to say whether this is postponed or not, but because in upstream, of course, we have our plan to deliver more production in the next years to come. Definitely, in upstream, we'll prepare the CapEx for 2026, which is appropriate to the targets we initiated in our strategy. This is as regards CapEx. As regards consumer end products, I would say the margins are stable, and this is a kind of market play. From time to time, we create promotions.
If we create promotions, basically, we create promotions and to decrease the margins or to decrease the sales prices, and as a result, the margin slightly decreases. However, our goal is to regain this in non-fuel sale. We have more customers enrolling to our VITAY program as a result, so loyalty program, so definitely we are going to continue with it.
Thank you. And if I may, a follow-up on the upstream. On the strategy update, you had mentioned that you were looking at potential M&As in North America and the North Sea as well to increase your upstream production. Is there any updates on that front?
I can give you a little bit, kind of, my personal view and then the corporate view as well. Basically, we have quite significant CapEx for the next years, three years to come. Our flexibility in this CapEx is not very significant, as we know. And in our strategy, we indicated that we have CapEx, basic CapEx and options for M&A. And this, M&A... In M&A, definitely we have flexibility. So that's why I'm very cautious as regards, putting any meaningful targets in M&A. We need to look into our cash flow position, and we need to look into the macro environment development, and then we'll decide how much money we have, we can allocate for M&A projects. So at this stage, I can confirm there are no meaningful projects, on the table as regards upstream in US.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you, Ricardo. Łukasz Prokopiuk, DM BOŚ, please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Can you hear me?
Yeah.
Okay. Thank you very much, Łukasz Prokopiuk. I got a question on your upstream and supply segment. First of all, can you tell us what kind of production dynamics do you expect next year? I think you mentioned that you plan to upgrade production in the next years. And the second question: Can you tell us anything on your gas wholesale margins going forward? When I look at your gas contract signed for next year, I see very big spreads. And can you comment on it?
So as regards to gas production, we are in the process of budgeting for 2026, so I will not give you, at this stage, a kind of precise number, of course. And, I can confirm what's in the strategy we put, as far as I remember, the number of 6 billion production from, from, Norway, like 4 billion from Polish, operations. So this is a kind of target for 2030. So step by step, we are going to increase, increase this number. As regards the... Can you be more specific as regards the wholesale, margin? You mean wholesale in Poland or wholesale from, from the-... from the kind of US, US, contracts? And-
What I mean is, the gas margins in Poland, the margins which you book in the upstream and supply segment. So what I mean is the contract signed on TGE, yes, compared to one-month TTF.
Of course. So, we should look into development of gas prices, of course, and, you are perfectly right in a sense that, I explained a little bit this positive impact into 2024. So 2023 gas prices were very high. We booked them at the high level, then prices dropped. So as a result, we managed to deliver roughly PLN 1.8 billion extra money. As regards development of gas prices, of course, this is a big question, what kind of development we'll see in 2026? So at this stage, we don't provide a kind of full visibility on our goals, but generally is going to be more stable than it used to be in the previous years.
I would not assume a very significant difference year-over-year on that.
Okay. So if you look at the EBITDA of the upstream segment this year, and-
Yeah
...as a scenario for next year that it is stable, is it like reasonable? Is it optimistic or pessimistic at this moment?
At this moment, I would assume stable, definitely. So we had this big drop as compared to 2025 as compared to 2024. So if you look longer term, like 2026, 2025, so it should be more or less. I would assume this is the most realistic scenario, maybe slightly lower, but generally, not very, not such a significant difference as 2024, 2025.
Okay. Okay, understood. And follow-up on CapEx. You mentioned that this year's CapEx will be, like, in the lower range, like closer probably to PLN 33 billion. And can you say anything about next year's CapEx? Will it... Is the PLN 33 billion benchmark a good one, or should we expect higher CapEx because there were a few delays and, I don't know, investments kick in? Can you say anything about this?
Okay. At this stage, I can refer only to our strategic plan, and if you look into the strategic goals, of course, the CapEx is higher than 33, so I would not assume at this stage that 33 is our benchmark. So please refer to our strategic plan, which is still valid. And, of course, in this strategic plan, we indicated this M&A as well, which is flexible, so we will be very cautious on that area, but definitely, the range in the strategic plan was higher, as you know.
Okay. Okay, thank you. That's all for my side.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Łukasz. Krzysztof from PKO, please go ahead.
Hello, everyone. Krzysztof from PKO Bank. I got two questions, if I may. The first question will be follow-up on refining, because you said that you expect lower throughput. Is this because of the... strictly because of the seasonality, or do you have, like, plant turnaround on your plants in fourth quarter? And if so, which installations are you going to turn around?
Basically, this refers to the plant shutdowns. So for example, in Orlen Lietuva, we have vacuum flasher and visbreaking shutdown, plant shutdown, so that's why utilization of Orlen Lietuva is going to be below 80%. As regards Czech Republic, we have plant shutdowns as well in the steam cracker. So utilization of Czech Republic, if you assume roughly 85%, would be the good assumption. As regards Płock, we are, of course, trying to achieve as much as should be close to 100%. However, we have some shutdowns as well, so all in all, probably will be slightly lower than 100%. So if you summarize everything and compare to the third quarter, you can assume slightly lower throughput.
Okay, thank you. And second question will be about your Olefin project, because I think it was, like, that you planned to come up with some review of that project in September. Maybe lower, maybe changing something in the, in the budget or in, in assumptions for that project. Is there anything we should know about this, or you are going to come up with something new-
We continue on the project. Yes, yes. Thank you for this question. We continue this project. We have only one item still on the table, which is final agreement with general contractor on CHD. Our goal is at least to conclude this up to the end of this year. However, we'll see how the situation develops, and once we have this final agreement, we synchronize all the timetables and create the budget, the final kind of budget allocation and budget update. Once we are ready, we'll go to the market and communicate the full picture of that investment. So we should expect that probably first quarter next year.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Thank you.
... It does seem that we left you speechless, because there are no further questions. Oh, we have a follow-up from Tomasz. Good timing.
Yes, thank you. Just one on the CapEx. There's quite a lot of investments, especially in downstream and in energy, which will be completed next year in 2027. Could you give us an estimate, what kind of contribution to EBITDA would you expect from those completed investment in 2026 and in 2027, given current macro conditions? Not the one which you had when you started those project, but those that are at this moment.
One minute ago, I was happy that I answered all the questions. However, finally, there is a question I cannot answer, so sorry for that, but those are the numbers we basically don't specify in detail. And first of all, let's wait, let's wait for these projects to be concluded. Once they are concluded, we look into the macro environment, and then we may discuss in more detail. So sorry for this, but at this stage, please allow me not to give you any specific numbers.
In general, do you expect this contribution to be positive, or you think there are gonna be some projects which will be more kind of burning at the beginning?
We believe that all the projects will be positive. However, the question is about the returns, and that's why we book this kind of impairments. Maybe this is the topic we can elaborate. In the third quarter, we booked PLN 1.1 billion impairment of new chemical projects, PLN 0.3 billion on the bottom of the barrel in Mažeikiai. So you can, you can... This is a clear evidence that those projects are not delivering the return higher than weighted average cost of capital. However, this is not negative projects from the EBITDA point of view, because if it hasn't been negative from the EBITDA, it's a kind of wise move to just basically close this down, as we know.
So you can assume definitely positive, and which projects are difficult from the return perspective, you can observe our impairments, which we post.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Now, it seems that we left you speechless. So we will be concluding before the market opens. Thanks very much for answering this wake-up call from Orlen today. We may consider doing that going forward, to have it before the session kicks off, but we're open for your feedback. Thanks very much for joining us today. If you have a spare half an hour, we're having a press conference, including the CEO. So you can access it online. But thanks for joining us. Thanks very much for your insightful questions, and see you in a quarter, unless we see you on the road before.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you very much.