Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Q3 ORLEN Group Financial Result presentation. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm the Head of Investor Relations. Together with me is Magda Bartoś, Company CFO, and the supporting team. So without further ado, I will hand over to Magda to give the presentation. We will have the follow-up Q&A session afterwards.
Thank you, Jakub. Thank you, Jakub, and good morning, everyone. A warm welcome from myself as well. Today, typically, we will guide you through our Q3 results. At first, a brief summary, what happened in Q3, and then we will go into a bit more detail, regarding each segment, each operating segment, and our outlook. So let's start with the summary. Solid operating results in what it continues to be a demanding macro environment. And what you can see on the page here is a drop in revenues by more than PLN 10 billion, and that relates specifically to drop in gas revenues related to gas prices and gas spreads and compensations, and refining revenues, and that relates to refining margins. We will, as said, deep dive into both those macro drivers later.
However, what is worth noting and what relates to the solid operating results is our LIFO EBITDA, adjusted for one-offs and write-offs, and that stood at PLN 8.1 billion for the third quarter this year, comparing to PLN 8.6 billion for the corresponding quarter of last year. So a much less painful drop of PLN 0.5 billion and proving our solid operating results for the quarter. Cash flows came strong as well, PLN 0.5 billion more cash generated from operations. That relates to a lighter regulatory environment and less gas and write-off that we accounted for in Q3 this year, compared to Q3 last year. And strong standing of our balance sheet, that is worth noting.
We've got a robust balance sheet with limited indebtedness of 0.04, so virtually none, net debt to EBITDA on balance sheet. Let's carry on and discuss our macro environment. There are key drivers for our business. Macro drivers for our business continued to normalize in the third quarter over the first nine months of 2023. The refining environment specifically has normalized to the level of high single-digit refining margins, as compared to more than $20 per barrel last year for the same quarter. That represents 65% drop year-over-year and has a very significant impact on the refining results.
We associate that drop to specifically gasoline and middle distillate drop related to weaker global demand and more refining capacity coming up, specifically in Nigeria and Dangote Refinery. Brent crude oil drop of 7% relates to again weaker global demand but also uncertainty as to supply restrictions and OPEC countries releasing those restrictions. The Polish gas index continued or followed the European gas indices, and these increased over the last few quarters, and that specifically relates to uncertainty to global geopolitical situation but also uncertainty related to supplies from Norway. Electricity price drop relates to CO2 prices drop and normalized expectations as to electricity prices. Has less of an impact on our results, but we will discuss it later as well.
And now, let's summarize the segment operating performance. The normalization of the macroeconomic results, together with solid operating results, can also be seen here on this page. On the upper graph, you see how diversity matters. And we are a diversified business that builds up resilience of our results. And we've got each of our segments, with the exception of petrochemical, but that doesn't come as a surprise, contributing strongly with solid operating results to the 8.8 EBITDA LIFO for the third quarter of 2024. I would rather spend more time discussing the next pages and details of each segment. So let's carry on and move to refining.
Refining operations were very solid in the third quarter of this year, with high crude oil throughputs and high asset utilization. We've got roughly 94% of asset utilization for the quarter. Polish and Lithuanian refineries operated at a very high utilization. Czechia had some shutdowns, and that's specifically a shutdown related to the unexploded ordnance that was found on site of our Litvinov refinery. But what was the key driver of our performance in the third quarter of this year was definitely macro environment, and dimension of 65%, accompanied by a drop in the differential as well, that all drove to a more than 2.7 impact, negative impact, on the segment's EBITDA.
We significantly improved trading margins in the third quarter of this year, but that relates to a distorted baseline of 2023, when specifically in August and September of 2023, refining wholesale prices in Poland were unusually low, and creates a very low base, allowing us to show the significant improvements in the other section on the EBITDA bridge that we can see in here. And lastly, let's take a look at our CapEx. PLN 7.5 billion CapEx planned for this year in refining segment. Already spent 4.3%. We've got an update for you on the total CapEx expected.
We currently expect a total of PLN 33 billion CapEx for this year, which represents a drop of PLN 2 billion compared to last year, and I think is a great testament to what we, as the new management team, announced at the beginning, of our work together, that discipline related to spending and discipline related to CapEx and investment is going to be our key priority, and we keep revising our projects and investment plans to provide for, for the most optimal, forecast and plans. The key, projects here in terms of investment in refining area, is, debottlenecking in our Płock unit and biofuels units in our Płock unit as well, HVO specifically, bottom-of-the-barrel installation in Lithuania, and oil unit in Gdańsk. Let's carry on to petrochemicals.
Within the petrochemicals sector, I think the situation has been doom and gloom, and continues to be doom and gloom. We noticed some slight improvements in the third quarter of this year related to volumes, related to margins, but those were not enough to significantly improve the performance of segment. We continue to be in the negative territory in terms of operating results. That is not a matter specific to ORLEN, obviously. We are struggling, the petrochemical sector is struggling in Europe, and driven by two areas.
One is the market drivers, weaker demand, weaker economic performance, or performance of economies in Europe, that drive the prices down, but also oversupply from territories, from suppliers producing on gas feedstock as compared to Naphtha feedstock. So feedstock that is structurally cheaper and more attractive makes it more difficult for European producers to compete in the market. And that is probably one of the key dilemmas of the management team currently, as well as it is within the petrochemical segment, that we currently are delivering our largest investment in Olefins project. We currently have got PLN 3.8 billion spent in the petrochemical segment, out of PLN 5.6 billion planned for this year.
You must have seen announcements from us last week, where we announced that our analysis of the project continues, and we will come back to you with conclusions till the end of the year. And the energy sector. We've got a new piece of information related to energy segment, and that is our EBITDA contribution of each business line. And you can see that out of the roughly PLN 950 million EBITDA for the quarter, almost PLN 700 million was delivered by energy distribution. This business line provides the stability of our performance and cash flow generation, and is a very stable component of the segment's EBITDA. Another factor that drives performance of the segment is seasonality.
Our heat plants delivered lower results, but that, again, is not a surprise, and is a very regular trend in the summer months for these assets. What is, however, crucial to understand when analyzing the results of energy segment is regulations. We had a change in, or unstable, let's say, environment with regards to regulations. In Q3 this year, we didn't have to pay any more of the windfall charges. In Q3, sorry, last year, we still had a charge related to the support of our retail customers in the amount of PLN 420 million. So there is a positive impact of that change.
However, the allowances, compensations, as we call them, were also significantly lower by more than PLN 500 million and did not cover the cost corresponding to the maximum tariffs that were approved by the regulators, and thus drive the EBITDA of energy sales business to the negative territory. You can see that on the composition bridge on the right-hand side of the page. Another element that I would like to explain is an impact, a significant impact of almost PLN 500 million related to IRS, Baltic Power.
Financing comes with an IRS instrument that needs to be revalued at each reporting period, and this time, we accounted for negative results for that IRS instrument of PLN 270 million, while in the same quarter of last year, we had PLN 200 million positive impact. Good news is that we're working together with our reporting team to eliminate that kind of charge from the EBITDA line, so putting it below the bottom line, so that a non-operating impact does not distort comparable comparability of our results in the future. And the next segment, retail, a very solid performance, both driven by inorganic and organic drivers.
Inorganically, we grew the number of retail sites in the first quarter of this year compared to last year, driven by expansion in the Austrian market, Hungarian market, but also we continue to expand in the Polish market, obviously less of an impact, but still quite visible. Organically, however, we significantly improved fuel margins, and that also relates to a non-standard situation of last year, when for the corresponding quarter, fuel margins were kept low, and especially in the Polish market, impacting the results of the segment. Let's carry on and discuss upstream business. There are two main messages for the upstream business. First, increase in the capacity.
With the acquired assets in Norway, we continue to improve or increase our capacity hydrocarbons production. In this quarter, it was 22% of an increase on volumes. However, one thing or what I also need to mention in terms of volumes and production is a slight drop of production in the third quarter of 2024. That relates to planned outages in our Norwegian assets. 13 out of 20 of the currently active fields were undergoing or underwent maintenance in September, and thus impacting average daily production in the third quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. Another driver of performance for the upstream business is regulations. Finally, there is a sound of relief here.
We didn't have any winter gas charges related to upstream operations in Poland. We had those in the first half, in the first half of the year. You might remember, PLN 15 billion altogether. And in the last year, we also accounted for PLN 3 billion of those charges. So that drives a positive change of EBITDA in this quarter. And I think all in all, a performance that's very good representation of solid operating performance and results that should be expected in a stable macro environment for the upstream business on a quarterly basis.
And gas trading, what we can see here, things worth mentioning here is increase in volume, and that specifically relates to a domestic gas sales for industrial clients or business clients. Those volumes went up by 16%, and we relate that change to a normalizing macro environment. When with less volatility in gas prices, the spreads are tightening, our customers feel more comfortable, and as such, volumes improve. And you can see the macro change, quite a significant macro change, which is associated to lower margins on sales of gas and tightening spreads, as I mentioned, with less volatility in the market.
There is also a one-off impact on the results of the segment related to the own-use contracts that we continue to account for related to PGNiG acquisition. Let's move on to discuss debt. This is a new update, but we thought might be of interest to you especially that we have put quite a lot of effort over the last few months to conclude on the two large financing deals. The first one is European Investment Bank, providing us a 15-year tenor debt instrument that for financing modernization of our energy grids. So that specifically relates to Energa-Operator, PLN 3.5 billion of very attractive in terms of cost and very attractive in terms of tenor financing that will support the modernization of the grid.
Revolving credit facility, we signed a new revolving credit facility of PLN 2 billion, dual currency, five plus one plus one tenor, providing stability of balance sheet and operating financing. A great support tool to manage our cash flow operations throughout the next year. Lastly, let's take a look briefly at our short-term perspective, short-term outlook. We continue to believe that lower commodity prices will support economic recovery in the region. There are two major updates that we share with you on this page. First one related, and both are actually impacting refining business. First one related to Brent prices.
We lowered our expectation related to Brent prices to $81, and driven by the same factors I mentioned when discussing refining segment operations. And same drivers drive our expectations of refining margins down to $11 per barrel, meaning more capacity, more supply in the region with weaker demand globally, driving specifically gasoline and middle distillates down. However, we expect less volatility in the refining margins for this quarter, for the last quarter of this year.
To comment briefly and in general on the EBITDA for the fourth quarter, we expect the EBITDA in slightly negative compared to last year's EBITDA, specifically driven by the gas segment, where tightening spreads will compare negatively to last quarter of 2023. On refining and energy and upstream, we expect better results in quarter four compared to the trend of the year. In refining, higher trade margins will improve our results comparatively, in energy, improved regulatory environment and in upstream as well. Retail and petrochemicals are expected to deliver comparable results, stable results.
And, we also, lastly, last comment from my side, we also took a look at your consensus. We still feel quite comfortable with your forecast and how you see the business for this year. And with that, thank you very much. As Jacub mentioned, we are all gathered here in the room, ready to answer your questions. Please, go ahead.
Thank you for the presentation. By the order of raised hands, I'll hand over to Michał.
Hi, thank you. Thank you. I have a couple of questions. The first one, you have said that the CapEx spent for Olefins so far was PLN 14 billion, and that it would take roughly one and a half years from today to fully stop the installation, if such a decision were taken. How much would the total CapEx, including penalties, be if you stop this installation in December, including penalties? And would the EBITDA from this installation be near to zero at current shape?
Let me clarify the total CapEx spent. Total CapEx spent for the Olefins II project, Olefins III, sorry, project, is PLN 12.5 billion, out of which almost PLN 9 billion has been written off. At this point in time, we are unable to comment on very specific numbers related to the project shutdown or project continuation. As we mentioned in our announcement last week, the analysis continues. And while you might have heard some comments, those were purely estimates, and I would rather avoid talking about specific numbers until we've got specific scenarios. But, of course, I'd like to give you some flavor so that you've got a better understanding what is being analyzed. One of the scenarios...
is indeed to cease or suspend the project, that might be temporarily or permanently, and that would involve settlements with our contractors already on site, but also our commercial partners that we contracted our volumes with. That would obviously take time to demobilize and also clear up the scene. And so as such, it is a lengthy process, and might involve or surely will involve but specific funding. And the second scenario, which is rightsizing or resizing the project, to make sure that we maximize value from the volumes of base chemicals produced, that requires a revision, a thorough revision of CapEx.
Therefore, would be premature to comment on the total CapEx and any incremental EBITDAs from that scenario until we complete our analysis. So please be patient. We will take a few more weeks and then share all the details about the scenarios and the selected one as well.
Sure. Thank you. The next question: are you considering purchasing a stake in the JV from LyondellBasell, which is planning divestments in Europe? Can you expand, please, on what you think about this type of naphtha-based installations in Europe? Could this be for you an opportunity to buy cheap, or are you long-term negative on these assets?
We currently have got a JV with LyondellBasell, that Basell Orlen Polyolefins, a polymer-producing installation in Płock, and that is a naphtha feedstock-based installation. As our partner announced, they're reviewing the future of the new European asset. I think I mentioned during my comments to the petrochemical segment performance that we see a structural negative of the sector related to differences in prices of naphtha-based products and gas-based products. We believe it is an irreversible change in the market and therefore, economics of the naphtha-based product is and will remain difficult. Therefore, I think it would be very difficult to justify an investment in a naphtha-based cracker or polymer plants in Europe, specifically in Western Europe.
Obviously, we keep an eye on interesting assets and analyze all the assets, but the beliefs or outlook is rather difficult here.
Perfect. Thank you. And maybe, the last question from my side. You said yesterday that you have relatively, that ORLEN have a relatively better balance sheet relative to, to its peers in oil and gas sector, with another CapEx reduction for this year that you presented, and probably, for the couples of, of, for the following years. Do you see, in your balance sheet, room, for, special, higher dividend next year than your base amount, PLN 4.3 per share? Do you see room due to better, better CapEx discipline?
Let me address this question this way. What is and will be a top priority for our management team is transparent dividend policy. A dividend policy that that is attractive and transparent. I think those two objectives are the ones that that best describe our approach. We've got a dividend policy in place that provides you with the floor for next year, but we also want our returns to be attractive, comparing to our peers. In the exercise or in the process of reviewing our strategy, we are discussing how we can make our dividend policy or returns to shareholders more attractive. It is too early to comment on the dividend for next year. The floor is what you will definitely. What you can definitely expect.
If there is space and if there is possibility to return more to shareholders, our strategy will tell and we will announce that in December.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Michał. So now I'll hand over to Krzysztof. Krzysztof?
Hello, Krzysztof speaking. Thank you for the presentation. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first question would be about CapEx. So what's the major reason for CapEx reduction this time around? The largest drop was shown in petchem. And the question, is it like a permanent cut to the CapEx pipeline, or there are some delays and some of—some part of the CapEx will be carry over into 2025? And yeah, this one, this question about CapEx. And the second question would be about the gas segment. So have you already received any LNG cargo from Venture Global Calcasieu Pass? Which would be according to the contractual agreement, not the spot delivery.
If not, what are your expectations regarding the timeline for the first cargo delivery? On the same issue, what's the state of affairs regarding the arbitrage with Venture Global, and what's the progress and expected timelines regarding proceedings? Thank you.
Yeah. So let me start with the CapEx reduction. Out of the PLN 2 billion CapEx, estimated drop for this year, PLN 1 billion relates to growth CapEx, and indeed, as you mentioned, petrochemical. And whether this is a permanent drop carry over to next year, a lot relates to or depends on the decision that the management team takes on the Olefins project. And another PLN 1 billion is maintenance CapEx. And here, majority of that drop is permanent and relates to changes in the scope and timing of our maintenance works and also related to some of our logistics assets and rail tanks, for example. So, a lot of detail there. It was a very thorough update, and you can expect that that drop is rather of a permanent nature.
And then on the Venture Global, no, we haven't received any cargo yet. We indeed, in the best case scenario, are expected to receive the first cargos towards the end of the year. However, right now, as we're seeing things, we would rather expect the first cargos to come later in the first half of next year. But on the arbitrage, it is a very sensitive one to comment. If I remember correctly, but I'm looking at my team, if any of you guys have got more detail, the arbitrators were assigned. There's been a lot of news in the general press on that. But pretty much, at least from my side, not much to add other than the proceedings are ongoing.
The arbitrators were assigned, and we're waiting for some more developments.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Krzysztof. Anna, please, the floor is yours.
Good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have several questions, if I may. First will be on the olefin complex. Could you please correct me if I'm wrong that in the strategy the previous the current strategy it was only PLN 13 billion of CapEx included for this Olefin III complex. So even if you like terminate the project there will be no significant incremental CapEx cut from it coming to this a new new number we will see hopefully in December. That would be my first question. The second question will be around the letter of intent of with Grupa Azoty.
I saw the extension there of the deadline, so I want to check what are the current stage of the discussions or negotiations and what options are you checking there? And the final and more technical one on the upstream side. After the maintenance over second and third quarter, like, what level of upstream production would you expect in fourth quarter? Thank you very much.
Anna, on the olefins project, indeed, PLN 13.5 billion was included in our strategic financial plan. Therefore, you're completely right to say not much of a CapEx plan coming specifically from this project can be expected in our strategy update. On the LOI, we signed the letter of intent with Grupa Azoty, initially for two months, and said, we would like to analyze strategic options related to certain groups of assets, in particular, polyolefins in Police, also one of the logistical assets on the Polish seaside, and C4 production capacities or production installation. We currently maintain the same scope of letter of intent, but mostly focus our analysis on the Police project.
Obviously, that analysis is quite complex, given the situation of the project. We already hold 17% of the stake in that company and have got roughly PLN 500 million of capital employed in that project. Therefore, it's in our best interest to make sure that the project continues to successful completion and operations. We're in discussions with Grupa Azoty about the potential tighter cooperation in the future. Hope to finalize the our contest, our discussions with some more detail, with some more definite feedback for you till the end of the year when the second term, let's say, of our LOI expires.
On the Upstream production, we expect our production volumes to return to the previous quarter levels, roughly. So when you think about the impact of the maintenance, we lost roughly 50% of the daily production on average. So if you recalculate September, simply double the September volumes, then you'll end up with the representative quarter levels.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Next question's from Giuseppe. Please.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the presentation, for taking my questions. I have a couple of them. The first one, you've already commented both yesterday during the press call and today, we touched upon it many times about the challenging environment for chemical producers in Europe. And looking at your existing portfolio, would you consider closing part of your capacity?
Closing what, Giuseppe? Can you-
Part of your capacity.
All right. Right. So looking at our portfolio, we've got assets of very different, let's say, age class and production capacity. So we've got assets in Plock and Włocławek that are part of integrated value chain together with our refining, refining units. Therefore, we can't really make any closure decision on separating that decision from the operations and impact on that integrated value chain. So you'd need to consider the whole downstream operations of the Plock and Włocławek units. And then we've got our Czech assets, where we've got Spolana and Paramo. Both those assets struggling with economics. And we obviously took a deep dive into the economics and future of those assets.
No decisions yet, but clearly, very detailed analysis is ongoing.
Okay, perfect. That's clear. Looking at the projects included in the current strategic plan, how many of them do you believe have prospective returns below their cost of capital?
In the petrochemicals, you mean?
No, like in general, among all the projects.
Yeah, that's a very difficult question given the scope of our investment plan. So I'll let me maybe on a general level comment for each of the segments, as it would be really difficult to get into the detail during this call. On refining, our key projects aim at improving the yields of our processing and improving logistics. Therefore, I've got positive expectations related to the return of those assets, with the exception of bottom of the barrel in Lithuania. But the negative economics of that project is rather driven by the budget, not by the scope of the project. So we simply had budgets over... Sorry.
We had a budget overrun that drove the economics of the project, not the kind of substance of the project itself. With petrochemicals, I think it's very clear from our previous comments that base chemicals, petrochemicals based on Naphtha feedstock, we hardly see any possibility of returning value, and hence the key decisions on the Olefins are so difficult because of the size and the magnitude of the project. Then when it comes to energy, our key downstream investments are CCGTs, with very decent returns on capital and renewables with I think market benchmarks returns on capital.
With regards to upstream, our investments include investments in new fields, new operations, providing very decent, again, market benchmarked return on capital employed. And in the gas segment, investments and gas and energy infrastructure asset investments, returns are regulated, therefore, quite predictable and transparent.
Perfect. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Łukasz, please, now your turn.
Yes, thank you. Thank you for the presentation. Could you please tell us, the CEO mentioned that the dividend is to be based on adjusted free cash flows, and what do you want to adjust the free cash flows for?
Let me reiterate our dividend policy. We offered our shareholders a return of 40% of free cash flows or a floor dividend of PLN 4.15, growing by PLN 0.15 each year. That hasn't changed. We are working, as I mentioned earlier, on our strategy update, and of this, we've got discussions related to our dividend policy and capital allocation. We are discussing about our dividend, but in the direction that I already mentioned. How do we make it more attractive, and how do we make it more transparent? I don't think we can make it even more transparent, but more attractive. And if any update, I'll come back to you with the strategy announcement.
So you suggest you will not adjust the free cash flow for anything, yes? Because I think the CEO mentioned explicitly that it will be adjusted free cash flows, and I'm assured the previous managements mentioned about adjusted free cash flow. So just want to clarify that.
And you didn't have a chance to clarify with the CEO what he would adjust it for? Because I can't really comment on the conversation I wasn't part of. And our dividend policy hasn't changed. It is exactly as I said, and if there are any updates, Łukasz, we will share in details with the strategy update.
Could you please tell us more on the PPA valuation in the gas segment? What can be expected in the next quarters on this matter?
Maciej, would you like to take this?
Yes. Thank you very much for the question. Regarding PPA, PPA is a valuation of the portfolio of gas contracts that were at the time of the merger with between ORLEN and PGNiG at the portfolio of PGNiG. So, this is recalculated. This is eventually settled throughout the two years after the merger. So that's why we see, we see each quarter impact of the PPAs on the results.
Due to the fact that on the Polish power exchange, the majority of the gas contracts available in 2022 were the contracts for 2024 and 2023, we should assume that the effect of the PPA will be eventually resolved in fourth quarter, and afterwards, we shouldn't have any PPA impact on the financials starting from first quarter of 2025.
Okay, and the magnitude of the PPA in the fourth quarter will be similar to the one in the third quarter, yes?
Should be similar to the third, third quarter impact, yeah.
Okay. I have a question to page six on the refining segment. On the waterfall, where you mentioned the other effect, can you... The other effect is almost PLN 1.5 billion. You say it's mostly higher trade margins, but can you tell us what is exactly the effect of trade margins?
There are two effects. There are two major effects. So let me comment, while I don't have a number of, of the trading margins in, in, you know, available on hand, there is another significant, impact, that on, on the EBITDA LIFO, that's important. So the LIFO operating result, that's included in here, and it relates to stocks, and historical inventory layers that were utilized in the third quarter of 2023, had an impact, positive impact on that quarter of PLN 500. And this year, we had a negative impact of roughly PLN 270. So there is a seven. Sorry, PLN 250. There is a PLN 750 delta related to historical inventory layers utilization included in that PLN 1.4 billion of margins improvement.
The 750 is negative, included in the one. almost five here, positive impact. You might expect that the trade margins impact was much higher.
Uh, okay.
If that makes sense.
This implies that the trade margin effect is like PLN 2.2 billion, yes? PLN 2.3 billion, yes, something like that.
Yeah.
Okay. Okay. Makes sense.
Yes, something around about PLN 2 billion. Yes.
Okay. Just a follow-up on the, on the free cash flows, because I just checked your news or official news from PAP, and it's explicitly mentioned that it's adjusted free cash flow. So, I'm just make it clear for the moment, you're thinking about adjusting the, I don't know, calculating free cash flows, not—I mean, you don't want to make any adjustments?
Yeah. Yeah, Łukasz, I think we realized here as well around the table that, that my comment was probably not as precise as I would like it to be. Indeed, our official policy says adjusted free cash flows, and I think it provides for some flexibility for the management to, to select adjustments. We currently have got, no offer or no calculation that we would like to, or we could, because it's not really a matter of willingness, but we could discuss. We are working with the assumption that for this year, it is the floor that we are paying. For next year, we will analyze our strategy investment plan as well, our capital allocation, and we will, present our, our offer of returns in due course, but the floor is what you definitely can expect.
Okay. Okay, thank you. Well, the last question on retail, because you gave a very thorough outlook on the fourth quarter. And one thing which stands out for me at least is the retail segment outlook, where you say it should be comparable year-on-year in the fourth quarter. And because looking at the third quarter, which was much, much better, and looking at the current macro, which is much better, I would expect the fourth quarter to be substantially stronger year-on-year, where you say it should be flat. Could you please explain why so?
Quarter- on- quarter, I think. Quarter- on- quarter. There's some seasonality in retail business as well. So the summer quarters are typically stronger than the winter quarters. But here, our comments are, what do we expect in the fourth quarter as trends continuing? So we expect retail to provide stable results.
But stable results-
You are indeed right.
.C ompared to the third quarter or the first-
Yeah
Fourth quarter of last year?
No, no, no. For the fourth quarter of last year, you are indeed right. There is an increase in volumes related to inorganic growth. There will be an improvement in trade margins related to the, let's say, baseline issues. Lower margins, lower trade margins or fuel margins in the fourth quarter of 2023. So you're indeed right. There are catalysts for improvement when you compare year-on-year. But quarter-on-quarter, we see a very stable in-
Okay
Performance of our key assets.
Okay, now it's clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
That's all from me.
Now I'll hand over to Piotr Dzięciołowski. Please, Piotr.
Hi, good morning, everybody. It's Piotr from Citi. I have three questions, please. So first, you've spent a couple of quarters as a new management team of the company. I wanted to ask you, how about your thinking about this strategy update? Do you feel this group requires a more significant shakeup and refocus on certain things you believe in, into the future? Or you think that what the previous management created is a multi-energy conglomerate that does everything and doesn't have a clear focus is the right way going forward? So basically, shall we expect a bit more drastic measures that you take and on the portfolio shape overall, or that will be a bit of more continuation with a bit of a different numbers going forward?
Second question I have on this new strategy, do you see a path to a positive free cash flow of the company, or you think we'll see a bit of a different number on the CapEx and bit of different scope, but still the company will take on and reach a better or, you know, a higher leverage going forward? And finally, I wanted to ask you about your offshore program. You had some cost overruns on the former on the existing project, but you're also planning to bid into a new auction. And do you think these auctions will take place in Poland, given the prohibitive price on the levelized cost of energy and the CapEx that is basically a very, very high in the Polish circumstances? Thank you very much.
Piotr, those are... Wow! Some really decent questions, and probably can take hours to discuss, especially the first two ones. But I'll try to be concise and provide you with our views on the business and roads to free cash flows positives. So let me start with the first one, and it's not an easy answer, 'cause I mentioned during one of the pages in my presentation that diversity drives resilience. Energy market will continue to be volatile through the transition, energy transition. We're, I think, pretty certain about that. Therefore, having diversified portfolio of assets in each of the key components of the energy market, I think is a great advantage to Poland.
However, what we will be seeking in our strategy update is more focus, as you mentioned, more integration, and the more de-risking of our business model. So we will be active seeking for partnerships. We will be active seeking for more flexibility in our capital investment in our investment plan. And that is a priority we don't believe has been, let's say, noticed so far to the extent that we that we would like to prioritize it. And and I think what is what is really critical and what stands out in our strategy discussions is indeed this capital discipline and flexibility is indeed shareholders' returns and making ORLEN more comparable to peers, especially in Europe, when it comes to decision making and business models.
And then, also organization focus, and de-risking of the model, making sure that we utilize the knowledge and experience of our partners through the energy transition, especially in the, in, at, at moments when we lack experience or expertise. And I think that's kind of in a nutshell, how we think about it and what you should expect from us, when we come to present the strategy in December. On the path to positive free cash flows, here, I don't think we've got such a straightforward answer, 'cause indeed, as you mentioned, our leverage is low, therefore, our cost of capital is rather high.
So we see space to see more indebtedness on our balance sheet and more efficient management of the cost of capital. But on the other hand, with the de-risking strategy and partnerships, and more of a, let's say, less... 'Cause what we believe used to very conservative approach of ORLEN was do everything on your own. We would like to more diversify our presence and partnerships portfolio. Therefore, the capital employed will be also different in different types of projects. We see path to three cash flows having that in mind. But it's a kind of two. There are two ends to that question.
One is, more leverage will make our cost of capital more efficient, therefore, we would like to see that coming. On the other hand, less of this independent approach and more opening up to different capital structures of our energy transition projects, will free up some capital and lead to quicker free cash flows. Right. Offshore CapEx question. Thank you, Jakub, for reminding. We currently are on budget on time with our offshore projects, so no overruns to be reported as of now, and no delays to be reported as of now.
Okay. And can I please have a one quick follow-up on this portfolio? Are there any assets you feel should be shut down or sold because they don't or they are unlikely to meet your returns requirement? Just thinking about something different than just the newspapers or this one, just, like, I don't know, I can mention quite a few, but, just wanted to have your feeling if we could see anything like this in this strategy. Without mentioning exactly which parts of it, but, do you feel you could sell something that is, I don't know, over 10% of your EV or shut down it or something like this?
If we're talking about the magnitude of tens or 12% of our EV, I can't really think of any currently. And, of course, strategy when there is a strategy update, you kind of keep your eyes open on any opportunity. But on the asset shutdowns or non-core asset sell downs, I don't think any of the projects that we currently analyze is of the magnitude of 10% of our EV.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Piotr. Tamas, please.
Yes, good morning. Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I got two questions for you. First of all, you mentioned earlier that the strategy update will be ready by December. Is it still valid? Could we expect this announcement to happen in December? And in relation to this, do you need the approval of your major shareholder, I mean, the Polish state, for this new strategy update, or is it in the scope of purely of the management? That would be my first question. And my second question is a specific one that's relating to the Czech situation. I know that you have an agreement with Rosneft until the mid of next year, and you want to decouple from the Russian crude. So how is this process going on?
Would you able to do that during the first half of next year, or how do you proceed, with this, development? Yeah, thank you.
Yeah, on the strategy update, we obviously working on the strategy, we follow our corporate governance rules. So it is the management team to propose the strategy to the supervisory board, and the supervisory board is, as representatives of shareholders, act in that capacity of providing us with guidance and advice on the strategic directions. But that pretty much it, when it comes to the shareholder involvement in the strategy definition. So does that address your question, or am I missing the point here?
No, yeah, that's understandable. But I mean, yeah, the first part of the question was that, do you expect this strategy to be ready by December or do you need some more time?
We confirmed that expectation yesterday, but still it's an expectation and not an invitation. So as I heard our CEO commenting, he left a little bit of, let's say, doubt, saying that we're doing our best to make it for the 10th of December to be able to have this conversation with you about our strategy update. And I can also assure you that the whole team is working hard to make it happen. But obviously, with the corporate approvals process and some fine-tuning at the very end, we might request some additional time, but it is still our internal target to be able to share that with you on the 10th of December. And can you please remind me your second question?
Yeah, that's the Czech situation and the-
Czech, yeah, and-
Kralupy.
Yes. Yes.
Litvinov. It's Litvinov, not Kralupy, yeah?
Litvinov. Kralupy doesn't, the, the. Kralupy refinery doesn't process Russian crude. With Litvinov Refinery and shift from REBCO to alternative crude types, technically, we're absolutely ready. The only question mark is logistics. Yes. Because I saw a reaction from my team. Logistics is the only question mark, and it's not under our control. It's the model, Czech pipelines operator, responsible for the project. As far as I know, there are no critical obstacles there. However, we can only switch to alternative crude types if that pipeline to Adriatic Sea is up and it is up and running, but is enlarged in terms of capacity.
Mm-hmm. And do you expect this to happen by the middle of next year when your contract with Rosneft expires? I mean, that MERO will be ready.
Yeah, we haven't been made aware of any other, any obstacles or delays. So yes, that's what we expect to happen.
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
It seems that we have a few follow-up questions. Piotr, do you have a follow-up or is it-
No, no, no, it's just, my hand is still up there. Thank you very much. Sorry.
It's the same case with you, Łukasz, or you have a follow-up?
No, actually, I have one follow-up. Thank you. Could you please, can you comment on gas prices? I mean, why do you think gas prices are so high currently, and could you provide some kind of price outlook for next year? Thank you.
Yeah, and I invite the team to add to my answer. The current development of prices, we associate to concerns related to supply from Norway. We had lower output, I mean, we meaning the European market, had lower output from Norwegian resources, from Norwegian assets. There have been several outages impacting the supply, and that's what we associate the higher prices to. In terms of outlook for the next year, I don't see either significant catalyst or significant contra driver for those prices. Rather, expect a bit more stability, but please, team, share your comments as well, if any.
Yes. I will maybe jump on the wagon here. In terms of pricing for the forthcoming years, we see that at least from a forward curve, until beginning of 2026, we see just a slight decrease in prices that will occur on the European market. This is mainly driven by the competition for the LNG deliveries coming especially from United States. Competition between the Asian and European markets, that's driving the prices currently up, and. With, of course, the peak of the prices, after beginning of 2025, we should see the gas prices in Europe to decrease slightly from around EUR 45 per megawatt hour to a range of EUR 40 per megawatt hour.
Significant drop may occur in mid-2026. This is mainly due to the increasing capacity of liquefaction terminals in United States. So with the higher supply, then we can expect prices to go down as the competition between Asian and European market will eventually diminish. So, that's our view on what's currently happening on the market. And, of course, any kind of disruptions that Magda mentioned, especially in terms of local production in Europe, may increase the prices in short term further. So, keeping our fingers crossed for no such disturbances on the market, just to have this price range maintained for coming year.
Thank you.
So to sum up, you're saying that you believe prices, gas prices in next year, at least in a few quarters, should be stable and should remain at relatively high levels, more or less, yes?
Relatively-
That's what you're saying.
Similar to what, what we see right now, right?
Mm-hmm.
Okay. Thank you very much. That's all from my side.
Thank you.
Thank you very much for your questions. It seems that there are no follow-ups, no further questions. I think we will be concluding. Thank you for the effort. Thank you for your time, for listening to us. Should you have any follow-ups, we do invite you to get in touch with our team, and see you on the Q4, if not before on the road.
Thank you so much. Have a good day, and see you in Q4.
Thank you.