Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 22, 2024

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the earnings call, which will summarize the performance of ORLEN Group, after the Q4 of 2023. Today's speakers will include Witold Literacki, Acting CEO, President of the Management Board, Michał Perlik, Executive Director for Finance, and myself, Konrad Włodarczyk, Head of Investor Relations. I'll move on, giving the floor over to Mr. Witold Literacki.

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

Ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome to the earnings call, which will be devoted to the summary of financial performance of ORLEN Group after the Q4 , and after the entire year of 2023. Before we move on, however, to discussing the financial performance by segment, I would like to firstly introduce myself, and also refer to the strategic directions of the development of the entire group.

As you all know, we are in the midst of selecting a new management board through. Until the end of the qualification procedure, I was entrusted with the duties of Acting President of the Management Board of the ORLEN Group. As you probably know, I have come back to the company after several years of absence. From 2008 to 2020, I served as Head of the Tax Office. D uring that time, I gained in-depth familiarity with the entire ORLEN Group, which, however, has recently experienced substantial growth.

The experience I gathered in those previous years aids me in identifying the challenges facing our company, and one of them is how to build the value of the company, and this is what we'll focus on strictly in a business-oriented manner by recognizing this fact and the context of our operations. Allow me to share a few observations that we, as the new management, supervisory board, have made after the initial weeks of work. First of all, we aim for the group to focus more on its key flagship business projects. My ambition for the ORLEN Group in its current configuration is to fully leverage the potential after the mergers. Especially of particular importance to me, is the successful implementation of energy transition projects. Our current capacity of renewable energy sources is at nearly 1 GW.

In this area, the group will continue growing, both through investments and through new acquisitions. In Europe, as you might not know, maybe you do know, the game is not about becoming a leader, but most importantly, ensuring cost-effectiveness and effectiveness and security of energy supply. This will be crucial to the future of our economy. Secondly, we will place a greater emphasis on enhancing the group's financial discipline. ORLEN 's capital expenditure plan for this year's exceeds PLN 38 billion , of nearly PLN 28 billion has been allocated to growth CapEx. The largest portion of this expenditure has been earmarked for projects in the upstream petrochemical and power generation segments. Our task is to deliver these plans in the most efficient manner and to the highest standards.

We must ensure that every single penny or grosz is spent in the best possible way, therefore, vital to give the green light to those projects that yield the highest returns and offer the most promising prospects for our shareholders. Thirdly, we want ORLEN to be seen as a safe investment in uncertain times. We do understand the significance of group predictability to our stakeholders, and we fully recognize how important it is to focus on energy transition projects and building the group's value in the long term. Our objective is, therefore, to establish the conditions for an uninterrupted implementation of growth projects.

At the same time, given the unstable geopolitical situation and economic situation, but mainly geopolitical situation, we will be enhancing our own security, through developing our own hydrocarbon production in politically stable regions of the world. Because we, as the management board, we believe that building an attractive portfolio of strategic projects and allocating capital in initiatives that generate the highest value, is the most effective approach to building the value of the entire ORLEN Group. Thank you very much, and I'll now give the floor over to Michał.

Michał Perlik
Executive Director for Finance, ORLEN Group

A bit of a technical hiccup. Thank you very much for this introduction, and a warm welcome to all of you, and I'll be very happy to discuss in more detail the performance of the entire ORLEN Group after the Q4 of 2023.

Let me first start with key facts and figures in this period, as well as in the first months of 2024. The Q4 of the year was closed with revenue at PLN 98.3 billion. We also generated LIFO-based EBITDA at PLN 11.2 billion. Our cash flows from operations, that is the indicator and the ratio that will show you how much cash we generate in our core business, stood at PLN 6.1 billion in the Q4 of 2023. Throughout the year, we spent PLN 32.4 billion. This is our CapEx figure, and this is a record-breaking amount of figure in the history of the entire group. As a leader in the energy transition in Poland, as well as in the region we focused our operations in this particular segment of the market.

In the Q4 of the year, we started work on our first investment, offshore project with Baltic Power as the company implementing it, with the capacity of 1.2 GW. The investment decision has been announced immediately after closing the financing process for this project, which took place at the end of September last year. May I remind you that this is the highest value project finance in Poland to date. We are very active also in terms of the development of our onshore capacities. In the Q4 , we finalized the purchase of five onshore farms with a total capacity of 200 MW. We also signed a preliminary agreement, conditional agreement, for the purchase of another project, 330 MW. We are also active in terms of CCS, carbon capture and storage.

This is a major element of our business, given a very ambitious plans in terms of decarbonization. We purchased a stake of 50% of shares in the Polaris license in the Barents Sea, which is one of the most advanced projects in terms of CCS in this particular region of the world. We also proceed with our R&D prototype projects in the area of hydrogen. Among other projects, we launched the first tests for the first general access hydrogen refueling station in Poznań.

It's worth pointing out that we published our sustainable development strategy until 2030, and all those activities in terms of energy transition and all the activities aimed at reduction of our CO2 emissions, were recognized duly, among others, by rating agencies, and just recently, one of the leading rating agencies, ESG MSCI, increased our rating from double or BB B to A. We are also very active in our traditional segments or flagship segments of our business. In terms of the access to hydrocarbons, let me remind you that we have finalized the acquisition of KUFPEC, a company that is very important because it will increase the scale of our production, our output in Norway by almost one third to over 4 bcm per year.

We also finalized the purchase of 272 fuel stations, service stations in Austria. And by that, we entered the new market, and we are very close to our strategic goal, which is 3,500 stations at the end of this decade. Moving on, we will discuss in a nutshell, macroeconomic environment. In the Q4 , we operated in a very volatile and quite challenging macro environment. We noticed a drop in refining margin by approximately 40% quarter-on-quarter, which is a major negative change for us because it is related to lower margins on our main products, that is gasoline, heavy fuel oil and diesel, combined with higher gas prices.

A drop on diesel is due to higher supply on the back of finishing maintenance shutdowns across Europe and higher availability of refining capacities in or around Mediterranean area. Our gasoline margins went down by as much as 38% quarter-on-quarter. This is a seasonal effect due to the finishing of the so-called driving season, that is the holiday period, as well as lower exports from Europe to USA and Africa. As a result of a change in crude slate, let me remind you that in addition to the Czech refineries, we have dropped entirely the throughput of REBCO crude, and this was replaced by crude from other directions, such as the USA or Saudi Arabia or Norway. As a result, we reported a negative differential. We are talking about $2 per barrel.

This is due to the fact that the crude that we are currently processing is more expensive, but on the other hand, it offers greater yields. Our macro environment is still very challenging in the petrochemical segment. Despite a very marginal or slight increase in the margins, still those margins in the petchem segment remain at a low level. We also see a drop in volumes in the market. Brent prices, quarter- on- quarter, have not changed significantly. We're talking about a drop by 3%. The prices of gas increased quite significantly at TGE. We're talking about an increase of 15%, and TF at as much of 20%, and this is mainly due to a seasonal effect again, and the winter season.

PLN exchange rates versus the U.S. dollar and the euro, quarter-over-quarter, have not changed significantly, and this had no significant impact on our operational results. Moving on to consumption in terms of fuels, in the next slide, you can see, and you probably might remember, that consumption figures is correlated with GDP. In the Q4 of 2023, we reported positive GDP figures, especially in Central Eastern Europe. Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, and this translated into, among other factors, higher consumption of fuels, which was quite noticeable in Poland. We're talking about 8% year-over-year, and 8% in Hungary year-over-year. Moving on to a more detailed discussion of our fin- performance, as I mentioned, in the Q4 of 2023, we reported more than PLN 98 billion in revenue.

This was down by PLN 7.9 billion, if we compare it to the Q4 of 2023. 7% drop was mainly due to lower sales volumes, as well as lower quotations of refining and petrochemical products, as well as hydrocarbons. Across the year, we reported a historically high result in terms of our revenue. We reported nearly PLN 337 billion.

Our LIFO-based EBITDA, that is the main ratio, on the profitability of our business, stood at more than PLN 11.2 billion , which was down year-on-year by PLN 5 billion , mainly on the back of the negative impact of lower refining margins and lower differential, which has already been mentioned, lower petrochemical margins, lower margins in upstream, as well as prices of hydrocarbons, lower volume effects, lower trade margins, and the strengthening of PLN versus U.S. dollar year-on-year, as well as the valuation of CO2 contracts.

On the other hand, we reported a positive effect related to the results reported by PGNiG Group companies, higher fuel margins, as well as non-fuel margins in retail, hedging results, so the hedging of our operational positions, as well as the usage of historical inventory layers, lower provisions for CO2 emissions, as well as provision reversal for or on inventories, that is NRV. The financial result in the Q4 stood at PLN 1 billion , which was mainly a result of the positive impact of net foreign exchange differences. The group had, throughout the greater part of the year, had access to net cash, so we generated positive interest rates here as well.

Our net result stood at PLN 7.3 billion in terms of net profit reported last year, which was down by PLN 11 billion than current quarter year-on-year. Throughout the year, we generated PLN 27.6 billion of net profit. Looking at our key business lines and how they contributed to our results, it must be pointed out that in the refining segment, we generated nearly PLN 600 million in EBITDA, and here reported the greatest decrease year-on-year, because we're talking about PLN 9.8 billion down year-on-year, due to mainly negative macro impact. That is, lower margins, as well as lower sales volumes, combined with lower results or lower performance of the Lotos Group, lower trade margins, higher fixed costs, as well as labor costs.

On the other hand, we reported some positive effect as well here. That is the usage of historical layers, as well as provision reversals on inventories and RV, as I've already mentioned. This has been yet another challenging quarter for the petrochemical segment. The petchem segment reported a loss on LIFO-based EBITDA at more than PLN 300 million. This was down by PLN 900 million year-on-year, and as we have already mentioned, this was on the back of, on the one hand, lower volumes and also lower margins in this segment. In the energy or power generation segment, just as in last year, in the quarter four, the segment reported a loss due to one-off items or events.

In this year, we reported a negative impact here in terms of payments to the price difference payment fund, as well as lower results of Baltic Power on the hedging instrument, hedges, the interest rate for the investment project that we have mentioned before. In retail, traditionally, this has been yet again, a very stable segment. We're talking about a result of more than PLN 600 million , and this was more or less flat year-on-year. In terms of upstream, on the back of a major drop in the prices of hydrocarbons and also the write-offs for the price difference fund, we are talking about a drop of PLN 5.7 billion , down to around PLN 600 millio .

The best performing segment, on the highest performance, we're talking about gas sales and distribution, which generated nearly PLN 11 billion , going up by nearly PLN 12.5 billion year-on-year, as a result of the positive impact of lower gas procurement costs in this segment, as well as the compensations we received, and that is PGNiG received from the price difference payment fund. Corporate functions reported a level of minus PLN 500 million , going up by PLN 670 million year-on-year. This is a big picture of our financial performance, let me now give the floor over to Konrad, who will discuss in more details the performance by segment.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Thank you very much, let me start traditionally with the refining segment.

In the Q4 , LIFO, EBITDA in the refining segment stood at around PLN 600 million, going down by PLN 9.8 billion year-on-year. As you can see on the chart or graph, the negative macro impact was an effect of lower margins of light and middle distillates, as well as lower differential due to changes in the structure of processed crudes, and the strengthening of PLN versus U.S. dollar, as well as a negative impact of CO2 contracts. On the other hand, these effects were limited by positive impact of higher margins of heavy fuel oil, hedging, as well as lower costs of internal use due to a drop in crude oil prices, as well as lower CO2 provisions. In terms of volume effect is negative as well, and it's PLN 2.5 million, mainly due to lower sales.

We are talking about a drop in all our products except for jet fuel. Except of that particular fuel, all other fuels reported decreases. We also had a negative impact of the changes in the structure of processed crude oil, and there is reduction of REBCO and replacement of REBCO with more expensive grades of crude. Among others, we are talking about PLN 500 million year-on-year here. We reported a negative impact of the Lotos Group results, lower trade margins, higher overheads, as well as higher labor costs, which were partly offset by the positive impact of usage of historical inventory layers and inventory write-downs, NRV. Moving on to the next slide, that is the operational data of the refining segment. The throughput in the Q4 in the refining segment stood at 9.5 million tons.

That is 80% of utilization, going down by 1.8 million year-on-year, mainly as a result of the consolidation of 70% of the throughput in the Gdańsk Refinery in the Q4 of 2023, compared to the consolidation of 100% of throughput in the Q4 of 2022. In Płock, our throughput was down by 3 million tons, mainly due to shutdowns of hydrocracking and olefins units. I have already discussed Gdańsk. In ORLEN Lietuva and ORLEN Unipetrol, the throughput went down by 0.2 million tons year-on-year. In Poland, fuel yield went up, staying flat in ORLEN Unipetrol and ORLEN Lietuva. The throughput went down in general, as I've already mentioned.

In the petrochemicals segment, in the Q4 , we reported a loss here of PLN 300 million, going down by PLN 0.5 million year-on-year. The macro effect can be seen on the slide. We're talking about lower margins on petrochemicals, as well as a negative effect of CO2 contracts, combined with the positive impact of the strengthening of the euro versus dollar. The volume effect was also negative, going down by 14%, with lower sales of olefins, PVC, and PTA, combined with higher sales of fertilizers and comparable sales of polyolefins. Sales was lower in general in Poland and in the Czech Republic, respectively, 16% and 10%, with higher sales in Lithuania, 9%.

Others include the negative impact of, among others, lower trading margins, higher overheads and labor costs, as well as the negative impacts of settlements of CO2 allowances contracts, combined with the positive impact of usage of historical inventory layers. In terms of the operational data for Petrochemicals, the utilization was lower in the Q4 , mainly due to technological or maintenance shutdowns and the adjustment of our capacities to the demand in the market. The utilization went up in ANWIL only by 39%, and also at olefins unit in the Czech Republic. Sales went down by 14%, and stood at 98 million tons, and we reported lower sales of olefins going down by 14%. The same applies to PVC and PTA, combined with higher sales of fertilizers and the comparable sales of polyolefins.

Moving on to the Power Generation Energy segment. In the Q4 , this segment also reported a loss at PLN 0.8 billion , mainly on the back of worse conditions in the macro environment, and also one-off events at Energa Group, as well as a negative impact of Baltic Power project. Year- on- year, we reported an impact of PLN 0.2 billion , mainly on the back of the transactions hedging the electricity prices in the Energa Group and at ORLEN . We also reported higher costs of network losses, combined with the positive effects of the change in reserves for onerous contracts and sales. Additionally, positive volume effects of PLN 0.1 billion was due to higher production of sales of electricity at CCGT Płock , as well as Termika, which was partly offset by higher sales of gas.

We reported a positive effect also due to lower use volumes of coal. ORLEN Termika reported a higher performance mainly on the back of higher or comparable volumes of heat sales and higher production of electricity. Year-on-year, we reported negative impact of both overheads and labor costs, write-offs to the price difference payment fund, as well as higher costs of transmission and transit fees, as well as including the results of Baltic Power of PLN 0.6 billion year-on-year. The operational data for the energy segment in the Q4 , the group produced 5.3 TW of electricity, of which 60% came from zero and low emission sources.

The production of electricity went up year-over-year by 36%, mainly as a result of higher generation from renewable energy sources at Energa Group, as well as co-generation unit at Termika Group, as well as the contribution of new wind farms at ORLEN Group. The sales of electricity went up by 1% and stayed more or less comparable year-over-year, which was a result of higher volumes at Energa Group. In terms of electricity distribution, it increased by 2% as a result of higher volumes across tariff groups. The heat sales increased by 11%, up to 26.6 petajoules, despite higher temperatures in the quarter, combined with full consolidation of the assets versus the 2 months of 2022.

Moving on to the retail segment, which reported a EBITDA at PLN 600 million. As Michał mentioned, it was comparable year-on-year, with a positive impact of, as you can see on the slide, higher, both fuel and non-fuel margins, as well as higher sales volumes. Fuel margin went up in Germany and in Czech Republic, while the margins went up in Poland, and non-fuel margins went up in Poland and Germany, but went down in Czech Republic. Higher sales volumes were reported by 21% across all our fuel products, with gasoline going up by 14%, diesel oil by 26%, and LPG by 3%. Our sales went up across all our markets, except for Lithuania.

Obviously, our results were impacted by higher operating costs of our fuel stations, mainly due to in the inflation rate, as well as an increase in the number of our service stations, going up by 73 year-on-year. The operational data for the retail segment. At the end of the Q4 , the number of our stations were at 3,170, which was an increase year-on-year by 73, mainly due to an increase in Germany, with the acquisition of fuel stations from OMV, as part of the remedies, as well as the launch of rebranding of self-service stations from taken over from a local player. We also reported an increase in Germany, launching self-service fuel stations acquired from OMV.

In the Q1 of 2024, just to remind you, we finalized the purchase of 100% of shares in Doppler Energie, which means, in Austria, which means that we will be among the 3 main players in this market. Our market share increased in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, staying flat in our other markets. The number of non-fuel locations went up by 146, standing at 2,605 at the end of the period. During the year, the alternative fuel stations increased, standing at 734, including 660 electrical vehicle charging stations, as well as hydrogen and LNG stations.

The number of ORLEN Paczka locations in Poland stood at more than 10,000 in Poland at the end of the year. In the Upstream segment, EBITDA stood at PLN 600 million, again, which was down year-over-year. This is the last quarter of 2022, which was mainly as a result of a drop in the prices of hydrocarbons, significant decreases in the prices of our products here. We're talking about a drop of crude oil prices by 6%, among others. We also had a negative impact on the write-down to the price difference payment fund. We're talking about the amount of PLN 3.4 billion in the quarter.

In the Q4 , our average hydrocarbons production went down, of which gas production going down and the production of crude and other products going up. A drop in hydrocarbon prices translated into lower performance of the PGNiG year-on-year. Production of hydrocarbons in the Q4 went up by more than 29,000 BOE per day, of which the highest increases were reported for Norway and in Poland, mainly on the back of the finalization of our maintenance work here. In the Q4 , we launched production in Tommeliten Alpha field in Norway. Operational data for the Upstream segment. All in all, total 2P crude oil and natural gas reserves were at 1,264 BOE. We're talking about a breakdown of 72% for gas and 28% for oil and LNG.

In Poland and in Norway, we're talking about more than 80,000 of BOE. The other figures are presented on the slide for Canada, Pakistan, and Lithuania. In terms of the structure, production structure, gas represented 72%, and 28% was represented by oil and crude oil and LNG . In terms of gas trade and storage, as well as distribution, in the Q4 , we are talking about nearly PLN 11 billion EBITDA, of which PLN 10 billion in trade and storage, as well as PLN 0.8 billion for distribution. The retail tariff stood at PLN 517 / MW.

On the back of the decisions of the Energy Regulatory Office, it was reduced. As of January this year, the tariff is at PLN 318 / MWh . The average price for SMEs by the end of November stood at PLN 201/MWh. However, it was increased to PLN 263 /MWh . A major impact was reported on the back of lower purchase price on the back of drops in spot contracts. The price of monthly contracts in TTF was down by 67%. The average price of all transactions, TGE, both spot and future transactions, reported a drop by 21% year-on-year. The average price of gas from upstream to distribution is shown on the slide as well.

In the Q4 , PGNiG Obrót Detaliczny received compensation from the price difference fund in the amount of PLN 5.4 billion, and we are talking about PLN 17.4 billion throughout the year. As I mentioned before, we generated PLN 0.8 billion in profits. We're talking about a decrease of around 20%, mainly on a lower result of the system balancing operations. In terms of operational data of the segment, it went up by 3% year-on-year, which was due to higher demand, both seasonal, with higher consumption of gas, as well as the use of this particular feedstock by the major clients, the volumes at ORLEN Termika went down, mainly on the back of higher temperatures in the quarter, as well as lower usage of gas or consumption of gas by end customers.

The volume of imports was at 20 TWh, 21 TWh, of which a considerable percentage was represented by transport of imports of LNG. We need to remember about the volumes of distribution at 33 TWh going up. The fill level at the end of December was at 95%, compared to 97% at the end of 2022. I'm giving the floor over to Michał to discuss the financial part of the presentation.

Michał Perlik
Executive Director for Finance, ORLEN Group

Thank you very much. To the next slide. To discuss, in a nutshell, our liquidity position, the Q4 of 2023 was yet another solid and robust quarter in terms of the generation of cash across the ORLEN Group. Our cash flows from operations stood at PLN 6.1 billion.

This result could be higher had it not been for the delayed payments of the price difference funds. We're talking about around PLN 5 million, which was received in the first weeks of 2024 only. We are talking about a one-off effect here. We spent PLN 7.5 billion on investments in cash. This also includes advanced payments and settlements of our investments. Throughout the year, the company generated PLN 44 billion in EBITDA LIFO. If we reduce this number by PLN 9 billion, we're talking about the cash effect of around PLN 44 billion. We also were able to use PLN 9 billion in working capital. This is why we were able to finance historically highest CapEx of PLN 32.4 billion. We also paid a dividend of PLN 7.4 billion.

We purchased CO2 allowances and property rights at nearly PLN 9.7 billion, or nearly PLN 10 billion, and we also paid PLN 16.6 billion in income tax. As a result, our net debt went down by nearly PLN 4 billion. On the next slide, you can see that 2023 was closed with a net debt of PLN 1.8 billion, which was marginal, let me put it this way, compared with the current scale of our operations. This translates into net debt to EBITDA, which is the main bank covenant at nearly 0. We did not report any significant changes in terms of the financing structure. It's still based primarily on bonds, as well as credits and loans, bank credits and loans. We are doing our best to consistently increase the green financing in our debt structure.

Our investment grade ratings are still stable, A3 with stable outlook at Moody's and BB B + stable outlook from Fitch. The next slide presents CapEx. Planned CapEx for 2023 was at PLN 36.2. We closed the year at PLN 36.4. Mainly on the back of the savings in terms of maintenance, as well as replacements, a delay of certain projects, and the delayed launch of the project finance operations. As a result, the total difference is at PLN 0.5 billion, and this was also impacted by foreign exchange differences.

In terms of the synergies reported recently on the back of the merger with the Lotos Group and the PGNiG Group, to date, after the Q4 , we are talking about the synergies of PLN 1.5 billion, of which PLN 0.5 billion EBITDA, mainly on the optimization of our supply chain, and also the financial effect on the release of cash through, on the one hand, a replacement of cash, which was previously frozen in Norway, Lotos Norge, on escrow accounts, and we replaced them with bank guarantees, which released some funds. had a positive impact on our bottom line, on our balance. On the other hand, we optimized and reduced our working capital as we compensated the deposits of ORLEN and PGNiG at the TTF, and we also settled the deposit on the guarantee fund at IRGiT.

The next slide presents our CapEx plan for 2024. We planned PLN 38.6 billion for investments, mainly in the upstream, petchem, and energy segments. In terms of upstream, our investments will focus mainly on Norway or Norwegian assets, in order to increase the output from these assets, which in terms of gas, which will be transported to Poland through Baltic Pipe. In the petrochemical segment, we are talking about continuing investments, mainly in terms of olefins. In the energy segment, we are continuing our investments in low and zero-emission assets, mainly in terms of the construction of offshore wind farms, photovoltaic farms, and wind farms onshore, as well as 2 CCGTs at Ostrołęka and Grudziądz, as well as an upgrade of the distribution network at Energa-Operator.

We will continue growing in retail, in terms of our retail network, in line with our strategy. Moving on, and giving the floor over back to Konrad, who will discuss the macro environment, both in quarter four and also our forecast and prospects for 2024.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Referring to the macro environment, in the Q1 , we can see that the prices of crude went down year-on-year, which was mainly on the back of the concerns, considering a global recession, as also increase of production, both in the U.S. and in Angola. Let me remind you that Angola wants to have more freedom of decision in terms of the increase of its production.

Model refining margin went up, mainly on the back of higher margins on gasoline and heavy fuel oil, combined with the negative effect of lower margins on diesel oil. We are also observing a drop of imports to Poland due to limitations in the Red Sea, as well as higher costs of transport and maintenance shutdowns in Europe and in the U.S. The differential goes up by 0.8 to -$1.2 per barrel, so we are still paying a premium versus Brent crude versus Arabian Light, as well as higher Brent to Ural differential. Crack margins for petrochemical products, as you can see, the crack margins went down quarter-on-quarter.

The price of gas at TTF NG in the Q1 goes down by 20%-30%, mainly on the back of higher figures from Norwegian Continental Shelf, as well as the planned increase in regasification for LNG in Europe. The last slide discusses our market outlook for 2024. In 2024, we expect that the price of crude oil will be comparable year-on-year. On the one hand, we have an increase in the output from non-OPEC countries. Obviously, OPEC has all the tools at hand to influence the prices of crude, it will do its best to maintain the prices above $80 per barrel. That means OPEC will have to limit production. In terms of refining margin, we expect refining margins to decrease to around $12 per barrel.

Let me remind you that the model margin in 2023 was at $17 per barrel, so the baseline was pretty high. In 2024, there will be additional pressures with the launch of new refining capacities around the world. The differential, we expect the differential to decrease to -$0.6 per barrel. The petrochemical margin went up by, or is expected to, go up by around 5% year-on-year. In terms of natural gas, we expect a drop in natural gas prices to around PLN 170/ MWh , and the electricity prices are expected to decrease to around PLN 450/MWh .

Year-on-year, we expect higher sales of fuels in Poland, with lower sales across other markets, and we expect that the prices will be lower, but the demand will be higher. We also expect that the consumption will stabilize in Poland year-on-year. In terms of regulatory environment, it is worth pointing out that first of all, we need to pay the so-called gas premium under the price difference payment fund. This is expected to have a negative effect of PLN -15.5 billion , which will have a negative effect on our upstream segment. On the other hand, we have compensations received in gas sales and distribution segment in Poland, resulting from setting the maximum price below tariffs, and the expected inflow here is about PLN 5 billion .

It is worth pointing out that MBC costs went up from PLN 8.9 to PLN 9.1, and for ORLEN , is at PLN 6.6. Ever since the beginning of 2024, we are selling new gasoline at ORLEN stations with higher bioethanol content. This will be all from my side. Thank you very much for your attention. We can now move over to the Q&A session. We are receiving, and have been receiving questions from our webcast viewers. This is Urszula Zielińska, Rzeczpospolita, Parkiet, will ask the first question: Is Polska Press up for sales, and at which point are we in this process? Have you received one or more offers, and are you considering to list Polska Press on the Warsaw Stock Exchange?

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

It is too early still to discuss our plans for Polska Press.

We are analyzing the situation, we are talking about a multidimensional analyses in terms of the profitability and economics of this business, only after those analyses have been concluded, we'll be ready to announce our plans. In terms of the interest from the market in Polska Press, there is some interest in this investment. Yes, we received a couple of offers. However, we are talking about non-binding offers. This is mainly an expression of interest from the market, nothing more. So far, we have not taken any decisions, and we will continue to analyze the situation.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Thank you very much. Next question, Mr. Ernest Michalak asks, "When will you close the merger with Energa?

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

It was started as the very first merger, but still it has not been finalized, and you are showing the performance of Energa as your own performance, and you are forgetting our minority shareholders at Energa. At this point, we can say that the certain phase of the merger has been finalized, and ORLEN is the majority shareholder at Energa Group, and It is doing its best to support the group in terms of its development. Let me remind you that in the last year, we the group updated its strategic and investment plans, and by the end of the decade, across Energa Group, we will invest a lot in the development in Energa, of Energa Group.

50%, around 50% of our investment will be allocated to the improvement and increase of the distribution network in order to make sure that we'll have more connections and also storage facilities. The other, the remaining half will be allocated to the upstream segment, the power generation segment, I'm sorry, with low and zero emission of energy sources. Where, let me remind you, we have two CCGT projects in progress, Grudziądz and Ostrołęka. At Ostrołęka, we produce or we have around 600 MW of green energy capacities.

Energa, recently, last year, recent quarters, finalized three acquisitions, which will enable Energa to increase the capacity by 600 MW, as part of its company Energa development, it also proceeds with its own green investments, and it has a pipeline of a number of projects. What's important in terms of the growth of the group, as part of the ORLEN Group, is the fact that it secured two licenses last year for offshore wind farms, with a capacity, target capacity of 1.7 GW of energy. At that point, however, we have no plans, specific plans, in terms of our activities aimed at increasing our share in the shareholding structure of the group. This, I believe, will be analyzed and verified by the new management board as part of updating the strategy.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Next question from Biznesalert.pl: "If ORLEN has such a great impact on after the merger with PGNiG, what do you think about revaluation of the value of this company?"

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

Just as in the case of Polska Press, we are analyzing the situation. We are in the midst of the auditing process. We are discussing the situation with the employees as well. At that point, there are no conclusions so far, in order for us to decide whether or not we are considering any disinvestment or whatever decisions you can think of. We need to take an in-depth look and analyze the situation of all these companies, and only then will we be able to take any decisions. I do expect that the new management board, after some time, after those analysis, will announce its decisions.

How can you explain a drop in throughput numbers or figures at your refineries? I believe that we have addressed this question during the presentation. The throughput figures went down by 1.8 million tons, which was mainly due to lower figures at Gdansk in terms of crude throughput on consolidation of 70%, compared to 100% consolidation in 2022. In other refineries, the throughput number figures are slightly lower, and they were due to maintenance shutdowns.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

A question from Piotr Apanowicz, ISBnews: "Is the new management board willing to update the ORLEN strategy, and when can we expect to see the updated strategy?"

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

I understand that the strategy is adjusted, but those adjustments or updates are introduced every 2 years.

These times are dynamic times due to the macro environment and all those changes in terms of the transformation process for the companies as ours. The new management board will think about the strategy and think whether or not this strategy is suitable for the times that we operate at. The new management board will be appointed through competitive procedures, and they will decide on the approach for the strategy for the years to come, whether to leave it as it is or maybe adjust it or update it, and to focus on new directions of our operations.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Mr. Robert Tomaszewski, Polityka Insight: "What was the impact on your LIFO-based EBITDA in the refining segment of the utilization of historical inventory layers?"

Michał Perlik
Executive Director for Finance, ORLEN Group

A short answer here, we're talking about PLN 200 million on the plus side.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Mr. Piotr Apanowicz again with ISBnews: "Are you considering to phase out your company from SMR project with ORLEN Synthos Green Energy?"

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

At that point, there are no such decisions. We keep in touch with the company on an ongoing basis, and we will continue with the audits in the company itself, and at that point, we'll be ready to take decisions. At that point, there are no decisions to announce.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

The next question from Cleanenergy.pl: "In the retail segment, you reported a growth of 97, say, stations year-on-year." We're talking about the number of 773 alternative stations. How many of these are in Poland versus foreign markets?"

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

Yes, we have 734 alternative fuel stations, including EV chargers. 540 in Poland, 90 in the Czech Republic, and 29 in Hungary. In terms of CNG, we have 70 such locations, also in the Czech Republic and Germany, and we also have 3 hydrogen stations, 2 in the Czech Republic and 1 in Germany.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

Next question from Cleanenergy.pl again: "Does your CapEx figure include the purchase of onshore wind farms, 200 MW, finalized in 2023?"

Michał Perlik
Executive Director for Finance, ORLEN Group

Our CapEx figures do not include any M&As.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

A question from Gazeta Wyborcza: "When will you select your auditor?"

Witold Literacki
Acting CEO and President of the Management Board, ORLEN Group

We have already selected an auditor. At the end of last year, Supervisory Board of ORLEN S.A. decided to entrust this role or the committee, recommended to entrust this role to Mazars, who will be the lead auditor for ORLEN S.A. and ORLEN Group in 2023 and 2024.

Konrad Włodarczyk
Head of Investor Relations, ORLEN Group

I don't see any other questions, so I believe that we can now close this earnings call. Thank you very much for your participation, and goodbye.

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