Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 31, 2023

Jan Szewczak
CFO, Orlen

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of Orlen Group for the 3rd quarter of 2023. Our speakers include Mr. Jan Szewczak, Management Board Member of Orlen, CFO, and Armen Artwich, Management Board Member for Corporate Affairs. A very warm welcome to all our social media followers. Good afternoon, let me now give the floor over to my fellow speakers. Good afternoon, a warm welcome to all of you at another conference call, at which we'll summarize, recap the results of the 3rd quarter, this time around, of 2023. Let me start by a couple of general comments.

With a couple of those comments, despite unfavorable events and the headwinds, especially in the wake of the pandemic and the effects and the aftermath of the pandemic, as well as the war, a very dangerous war in Ukraine, despite many unreasonable attacks and backlash targeted against Poland's biggest company, which was listed among 5 largest, as well as the 20 most developed and fastest developing companies in the world, we have managed to build a strong multi-utility business.

Some of you still, some of those people still cannot understand that this is not the sales of fuels and service stations that actually generates this very solid results in terms of profit, because the inflows from those services and the sales of fuels represent around 1% or 2% of our profits, and the lion's share of our profits actually come from other segments of our activity. We have managed to build a multi-utility business, which is profitable, as well as we are able to take up unprecedented CapEx projects. We have managed to stabilize our financing sources. We have stabilized our finance footing and the balance sheets, and our shareholders are very much satisfied because we have paid out.

We paid out in June this year, a record high throughout our history, including the last 30 years of company, the highest dividend at nearly PLN 6.4 billion, which is a major injection to the budgets of our shareholders. As a result, we have financed a lot of mergers, including the consolidation with Lotos and PGNiG. As I said, we have managed to build Europe's largest multi-utility business, it's included and is ranked among the world's biggest companies, we must do our best and our utmost, not to waste it in the future, actually to tap into those opportunities which follow from this success in the international scene and in the European scene. This has never actually been achieved by any Polish company to date.

As far as our strategy is concerned, we have upgraded and updated, actually, the strategy in the first quarter of the year, the strategy by 2030, which assumes the spending and investment, which is a gigantic amount, half of the annual budgets in terms of the entire state of Poland on the cost side, of which 120, that is, 30%-40%, will be spent on sustainable growth projects, low emission sources, the improvement and upgrade in terms of quality, our focus on climate change. At this point, I'd like to add that our CapEx year to date for the 9 months of 2023 represents more than PLN 20 billion, and this figure will actually grow as we speak. By the end of the year, it should increase to PLN 30-something billion in total.

It is usually the fourth quarter that is usually a period in which investments actually accelerate, investment activity actually accelerates. In the third quarter, Orlen reported our performance figures, which were close to the previous period. We are talking about PLN 75 billion or PLN 75.4 billion in terms of revenue, as well as PLN 8.2 billion LIFO based EBITDA. Our cash flows came in the third quarter, came in at PLN 7.2 billion. One comment at this point, if you want to compare those figures, then it doesn't make sense to actually compare it to 2022. The 2020...

2022 was an exceptional year in our history, extraordinarily, in terms of high, highest record-breaking results based on price shocks, abrupt and steep increases in terms of prices of gas, natural gas, diesel oil, gasoline all around the world, as well as crude oil. These price shocks, supply shocks, were also the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. It's very difficult to compare our performance to date in 2023 to 2022. I would rather focus on the comparison quarter by quarter or quarter on quarter this year, especially that in 2023, we have already seen certain signs of recession all across Europe, for instance, in Germany, our neighbors, but also in Poland. We see that the economic growth actually goes down and has been going down this year.

In the past months, we have consistently focused on and delivered our projects in terms of transformation. We do not look at any adopted political calendars and time frames. We are consistent, we take care of our treasure, that Orlen is a national treasure, and we are very satisfied with its growth, and this also translates into a lot of investments, especially in terms of Baltic Power offshore project. We have taken or we have secured final investment decisions, and it was also financed in the project finance formula. We are looking for a number of various ways to finance such large projects as Baltic Power. We have launched the construction of the installation terminal in Świnoujście, one of Baltic Sea's most advanced and state-of-the-art ports.

In terms of renewable energy sources, we signed an agreement for the purchase of other wind farms, additional wind farms, 68 megawatts located in Wielkopolska and West Pomeranian regions. As part of building the new transformational businesses or business areas and projects, we signed an agreement with Horisont Energi for the potential collaboration on one of the most advanced CCS, carbon capture and storage, initiatives under the Norwegian Continental Shelves. We're talking about very up state-of-the-art and forward-looking projects, and we see a lot of potential here to tap in terms of savings, in terms of our future growth. We also signed an agreement, the cooperation with Yokogawa Europe, and this agreement focused on the integrated production system for synthetic fuels, which are an opportunity for us to...

or presented opportunity for us to achieve a total neutrality in terms of our fuels. mainly based on this, actually it's based on aviation fuels, but it has a lot of potential to tap, and it's very promising. We also want to be one of the leading companies and countries that actually focus on this particular area, synthetic fuels, as well. In terms of biofuels, in Trzebinia, we launched the used oil, used cooking oil, fatty acids, methyl esters unit. This is a very environmentally friendly investment and part of our group's strategy... on focusing on biofuels market. This is our future. The world has been using those products increasingly, and we do hope that with time, those fuels, waste fuels or waste products, will gradually replace fossil fuels.

Those esters that are produced in the Ecofine installation offer reduction of emissions lower by 84%. You can understand quite, and see quite clearly, that these projects are very environmental friendly and are focused on the quality of life of Polish citizens as well. We have already tested the first generally accessible hydrogen station in Poznań, and we have also included the first hydrogen-powered locomotive into our fleet. The hydrogen projects and the hydrogen area is an apple in our eye, and we are focusing on this area as well.

In the retail segment, the main event, the key event here, was the decision of the European Commission and the consent to purchase 266 fuel stations in Austria, so we became one of the major players in Austrian market. As part of the unification of our brand, we have completed the rebranding of nearly 90 fuel stations in Slovakia, and we also launched another stage of rebranding in Germany. 100 Orlen stations will be launched or brought on stream at the beginning of 2024, and the Germans see it, and they recognize it, and they estimate duly the quality and the level of the stations.

As far, part of our activities related to the crude throughput and upstream, we have finalized the strategic investment for the third nitrogen fertilizer production line, and we also launched the production from the Tommeliten Alpha in Norway by PGNiG Upstream Norway. Our, as you know, Orlen business in Norway. As a result, we will have around 0.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and this gas will be supplied to Poland via the Baltic Pipe pipeline. This presents an opportunity not only to step up on the production, but also to deliver gas to our customers in Poland. We also started the process of taking control of the transit gas pipeline system. This is crucial to Poland's energy security.

We also launched the biggest investment in our gas storage units by focusing on the construction and reconstruction, actually, of the underground gas storage in Wierzchowice, and we also focused on the floating storage gasification unit, FSRU, in the Gulf of Gdansk. We included two more LNG carriers to our fleet, the Święta Barbara and Ignacy Łukasiewicz, gas storage vessels. Our fleet is growing as we speak, and it will continue. We also signed an agreement to build a very modern oil mill at Kętrzyn, which will produce 200,000 tons of oils, which will be used to produce low emission biofuels.

This is a historical moment and a sign of times, because in this region, at Kętrzyn, we used to have a sugar production plant, which was privatized, senselessly, and then it was sold and closed down. At this very site, we are building a state-of-the-art modern oil mill plant. This is a proof that if you want to do something and achieve something, you can do it, instead of selling out national treasures. This is a sign that we are effective in terms of the delivery of our strategies. We also signed the conditional share purchase for agreement at ENERGOP, the pipelines producers or pipeline element producers. We're talking about various fittings that are used in the construction of pipelines for the refining and petrochemical segments.

This transaction will increase our potential in terms of our industrial projects. We are talking about state-of-the-art, cutting-edge pipeline technologies, and it shows that it's worthwhile to find partnerships to build a multi-utility business, tapping into the experience and potential of smaller companies. ENERGOP is actually a very good example of that strategy. Me and Mr. Armen Artwich, we visited the company, on the location, and we are very happy to see that this company has joined our multi-utility group. Before moving on to our actual performance in the third quarter, traditionally, let me thank and extend our gratitude on behalf of Mr. Daniel Obajtek, President of the Management Board, and the entire Management Board.

I'd like to thank all employees across the Orlen Group, everybody who is involved in our work, and all media representatives who are able to present our efforts in an unbiased way, in our efforts that we take in order to build a modern and strong multi-utility group that is a strong player both in Europe and around the world. Moving on to our macro environment, I'll give the floor over now to Mr. Artwich to discuss it, I'll come back later to fuel consumptions. First, let me give the floor over to Mr. Artwich. Thank you very much. Focusing on the macro environment in the third quarter of the year, we must say that the third quarter was characterized by a great volatility of our parameters.

Armen Artwich
Management Board Member for Corporate Affairs, Orlen

Model refining margin went up by around 60% quarter-on-quarter, as a result of higher margins on diesel oil and gasoline, as well as heavy heating oil, as well as lower prices of gas. Our margins on diesel oil went up by 6%, mainly on the back of a planned stopovers of our units in India and in Europe, as well as lower supply, dropping down the capacity by nearly 9%. The demand for diesel oil in Europe was higher, and this was combined by lower restrictions in terms of transport, obviously, and the effect that it had on the exports of products from Russia. The margins on gasoline went up, mainly based on lower supply, as well as restriction and transports.

We also saw certain gaps in the volumes of gasolines, as a result of the closing down of the 3rd-largest refinery, Marathon Petroleum, in Louisiana, in the United States of America, due to fire. As a result of a change in the structure, due to restrictions on the throughput on REBCO crude, the differential in the third quarter came in at a negative value, -$1 per barrel, which means that we pay a premium versus the quotation of quotations of Brent crude oil. In the petrochemical business, our microenvironment, it remains to be very challenging. The demand is low, which is driven by a slowdown in economy, as well as high competition in terms of exports, especially from outside of the European Union.

The quotations of Brent crude oil went up in the third quarter by 11%, quarter-on-quarter, the prices of gas in the stock exchange went down, which obviously had an impact on our production and upstream segment. We also saw a relatively high PLN versus U.S. dollar and EUR, which also had an effect on our business. This is a summary of our macroeconomic environment in the third quarter of 2023. The data on fuel consumption and the GDP will be presented now by Mr. Szewczak. Thank you very much. Slide number 6 present data on fuel consumption and GDP. As you can see in the third quarter, we see clearly signs of economic slowdown.

Apart from Slovakia and Lithuania, although in Lithuania, the increase at 0% or actually no increase cannot be satisfactory to anybody. The dynamic across all markets shows major drops year-on-year. In the German economy, for the third quarter of the year, the consumption of fuels in 2023 was higher across all our home markets. A major increase in consumption, up 20, 10% year-on-year, was reported for Poland and the Czech Republic, and in the quarters to come, in the periods to come, we expect an upward trend in terms of economy and an increase in GDP. Obviously this will depend on geopolitical situation, the developments in the Middle East in the context of war between Israel and Palestine.

Slide number 8 presents our financial results. We're showing revenues from sale at PLN 75 billion, which is a very strong figure, going up by 3%. That is quite satisfactory. This increase in revenue was driven by higher sales volumes, as well as higher quotations of refining products, combined with low quotations of petrochemical products and hydrocarbons, that is crude oil and gas. Our LIFO-based EBITDA operating profit came in at PLN 8.2 billion, going down by PLN 2.7 billion year-on-year. Let me repeat it, this is a misleading comparison. 2022 was an unprecedented year in terms of the scale of price shocks, as well as international market volatility.

This was mainly due to the result that we delivered in this quarter was mainly due to negative impact of lower volumes, lower differential, lower trade margins, lower petchem margins. We remember, the media demanded to drive down the margins. They were too high at that point, they are too low right now. It's very difficult to meet their expectations, the media expectations. What we are focusing on is the stability of the market and the availability of fuels for our clients. Obviously, hedging was also important. The strengthening of PLN versus US dollars, lower in the 3rd quarter, as well as lower fuel margins, as I said before, in retail. Lower margins in upstream as well. On the other hand, we also had higher overheads and labor costs.

Our multi-utility business has grown. We had higher headcount after the mergers. We believe that these figures, the results of consolidations with the new companies included in the group and consolidated, are on the positive side. We also had lower reserves for CO2 emissions or provisions for CO2 emissions. We must remember about the valuation of CO2 contracts, and also the usage of historical inventory layers. In the third quarter, the LIFO effect came in at PLN 1.3 billion, which obviously impacted our EBITDA that we reported. As far as our financial reserves are concerned in the third quarter, we are talking about minus PLN 0.6 billion, which was mainly due to the negative effect of net FX differences, combined with the positive impact of net interest.

What is of most interesting to you, the net result. It came in at a very solid level of PLN 3.5 billion, and more than PLN 17 billion year-to-date. Let us keep our fingers crossed that the net result figures continue to be that solid. We had reported a EBITDA LIFO, PLN 4.8 billion. This was a positive billion, was a positive impact of consolidation. Obviously, we reported in the refining segment, we reported EBITDA LIFO, which was lower by minus PLN 5.5 billion, which is mainly due to consolidation of the PGNiG Group results.

Jan Szewczak
CFO, Orlen

Corporate functions, we had higher costs by PLN 0.1, which was due to the increase in the scale of Orlen Group's operations, so this is not a major increase compared to the scale that we have right now. In terms of more detailed results by segment, I'll now give the floor over to Mr. Adam Czyżewski to discuss it, starting from slide number 10.

Adam Czyżewski
Director of the Investor Relations Office, Orlen

Slide number 10, we present refining segment's performance. The EBITDA LIFO came in at PLN 1.9 billion, going down by PLN 5.5 billion year-on-year, mainly due to the negative macro impact, which were negative due to lower differential, based on the change in the structure, higher or stronger PLN versus US dollar, and the negative impact of hedging.

The above effects were limited by positive impact of higher refining margins, lower costs of other CO2 provisions. Obviously, we need to remember about the cost of CO2 provisions, as well as the positive impact of the valuation of CO2 contracts. The negative year-on-year volume effect was due to the increase in sales volumes, as well as the change in the structure of processed crude oils. That is the limitation of REBCO processing in the group, and replacing it with more expensive grades of crude oil. In Poland, in the third quarter, we saw a visible negative effect of our shutdowns on a higher share of heavy fractions in the crude and the sales structure. We had a shutdown of hydrocracking and FCC 2, as well as H-Oil and hydrogen plant.

Across the group, volume of sales went down by 2% year on year, and the sales of diesel oil went down by 5%, LPG by 1%, heavy fuel oil by 11% year on year. We sold more gasoline by 10% and more aviation fuel by 19%. Other factors shaping our performance include lower performance by Lotos, as well as lower margins and higher overheads and labor costs, which were partially offset by the positive impact of the usage of historical layers of inventories. Moving on to operational data of the chemical segment. The throughput was high, at 10 megatons, which represents 94% of the usage of our capacity utilization of our capacity. Compared to last year, the throughput was down by 0.4 megatons.

As we said, those periods are not comparable because in the third quarter of 2022, we consolidated the Grupa Lotos, and we included 100% of their share in our utilization and throughput, and this year, we assumed a 70% share. At Płock, the throughput was lower, mainly due to maintenance shutdowns that I have mentioned. The refinery at Gdańsk was in producing at full swing, which translated into an increase in crude oil throughput year-on-year. At Litvinov and Unipetrol, the figures stayed flat year-on-year. In the third quarter, 2023, the volume of refining products came in at 8.8 megatons. We reported lower sales in Poland by 7%, and by 18% and 37% in Czech Republic and Lithuania.

The share of fuels across all our refineries was comparable year-on-year. Moving on to the petchem segment. In the third quarter, we reported negative EBITDA LIFO at PLN 133 million, mainly due to the above-mentioned very unfavorable macroeconomic conditions for the petrochemical segment, which translated, obviously, into lower margins for the majority of our petchem products. The negative effect was offset by stronger EUR versus dollar, higher margins on fertilizers, as well as the valuation of CO2 contracts. Volumes went up by 2% year-on-year, 45,000 tons, mainly due to higher sales of fertilizers. The negative volume effect is mainly due to costs and the usage of natural gas, as well as lower sales of olefins, going down by 8%, PVC by 25%, and PTA by 8% again.

the volume went up by 7% in Poland. However, in the Czech Republic and Lithuania, it went down by respectively 4% and 50%. Others include the negative impact in the petrochemical segment, or lower trading margins year-on-year. In terms of the operational data for the petrochemical segment compared to the last year, we had higher utilization ratio by 13 percentage points. Among others, it applies to the olefins unit in the Czech Republic. However, the olefins unit at Plock reported lower utilization, and the same applies to the PVC unit at Wloclawek. The sales in the quarter came in at 1.14 megatons, going up by 2% year-on-year, mainly due to higher volumes in the sales of our sales, and the same applies to the sales of aromatics and polymers.

Slide number 14 presents the performance of the energy segment. Our energy segment reported more than 1.3 billion PLN in EBITDA, mainly due to the performance of Energa Group, as well as Orlen S.A. units. There was a negative macro impact year-on-year, mainly in terms of electricity price hedging at Energa Group and Orlen S.A., lower margins on electricity production at Energa Group, combined with higher distribution margins. The effect on spread of electricity versus gas prices and lower costs of CO2 provisions were obviously positive impacts. We recognized a one-off provision at Energa Obrót, and the provision was at 230 million PLN, representing 75% of the total amount for 2023.

The negative volume effect year-on-year results from lower production, sales, and distribution of electricity at Energa Group, as well as lower production and sales of electricity at CCGT Płock, as well as the CCHP Płock, combined with the negative impact of higher consumption of natural gas. Obviously, we need to remember about the positive impact of consolidation with PGNiG Group and certain dilution of Baltic Power shares. Those effects were partially offset by the Price Difference Payment Fund at Orlen S.A. and higher costs of transmission and transit fees year-on-year. In terms of the operational data of the energy segment, in third quarter, we produced 2.8 terawatt-hours of electricity, of which 60% came from renewable energy sources and gas-fueled sources.

Production of electricity, including the former PGNiG and LOTOS groups, went down year-on-year by 13%, which was a result of the planned shutdown of CCGT Płock and the lower production output, the Ostrołęka Power Plant. The distribution went down by 2% year-on-year, mainly due to lower consumption of energy across all our tariff groups, which was due to the incentives on energy savings. The increase in sales of electricity, which was noticeable, up by 3%, which is due to higher volumes traded on the wholesale market of our new trading company, Orlen Energia, that deals with the trading in energy. In terms of heat sales came in at 12.9 petajoules, going down by 4% year-on-year, mainly due to higher average temperatures.

On average, they were higher by 1.2 degrees Celsius. Moving on to the financial data for the retail segment. The retail segment in the third quarter 2023 reported EBITDA at PLN 601 million, and it was down by PLN 225 million compared to the third quarter 2022. As Mr. Szewczak already said, you need to remember about the base effect. The third quarter 2022 was exceptional, unprecedented in terms of the situation in the fuel markets and the retail segment.

We can say that this is an effect on a drop in fuel margins across all markets, as well as higher costs of operation of all service stations due to inflation, as well as an increase in the number of service stations, going up by 255. This is the total number of fuel stations that were included in the network. These effects were offset by higher margins on non-fuel products across all our markets. In terms of the operational data of the retail segment, as I said before, sales volumes went up by 10% year on year. We also Especially, we reported higher sales in the Czech Republic and in Poland by 61% and 9% year on year, respectively, as well as in Lithuania, going up by 6%.

However, we reported lower sales in Germany by 4% year-on-year. The number of fuel stations at the end of quarter three came in at 3,153, which obviously represents an increase by 255 stations, as I said before, across all our home markets. In Poland and Hungary and Slovakia, this was due to the remedies which we had to take in order to close the merger with the Grupa Lotos. In Slovakia, we launched rebranding on self-service stations that we took over, and in Germany, we launched some self-service stations that we took over from OMV. The European Commission also gave a green light to buy additional 266 service stations in Austria.

As a result, we will be one of 3 largest players in Austria, representing a great share of the market. Our market share increased in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and in Hungary, and it stayed flat in Germany and in other home markets. We reported 596 non-fuel locations. In terms of the number of alternative fuel stations, it went up by 101 stations, came in at 701, of which we have additional CNG and hydrogen stations. The number of Orlen Paczka locations came in at more than 9,600. On slide number 18, we present the performance of the upstream segment. In terms of EBITDA, it came in at -212, going up...

Going down, sorry, going down, year-on-year by more than PLN 900 million. This is, as I said, due to the base effect and a major drop of prices of hydrocarbons. We're talking about the decrease of more than 80% for natural gas and 14% for crude oil year-on-year. In addition, we had to recognize a write-down for the Price Difference Payment Fund at PLN 3 billion in the third quarter. Across the year, for the entire year, this write-down is supposed to reach PLN 14 billion, of which we also reserved the lion's share. The average production of hydrocarbons at Orlen Group went up.

We're talking about an increase of total average production of 124.8 thousand barrel of oil equivalent per day, year-on-year. We are talking about an increase in terms of crude oil and condensate. The data is presented on this particular slide. The production of hydrocarbons, compared to the previous quarter of the year, went down. The major drop of 6.1 thousand barrel of oil equivalents was reported for Poland. A lower production, in terms of especially crude oil, was the maintenance shutdowns in our fields. In total, our gas and crude oil reserves across the group is at 2 thousand barrel of oil equivalents per day.

The average production came in at 154,000 of barrel equivalent of oil equivalent per day. We are showing the specific figures this slide for Poland, Norway, Canada, Pakistan, and Lithuania. In terms of the structure of our production, gas represents 74%. Oil and condensate represented 26%. I will now move over to our gas segment. We generated EBITDA at PLN 5.2 billion, of which PLN 4.8 billion in trade and storage of gas. PLN 400 million for distribution. The retail tariff stays the same at about PLN 517. Due to decrease in the average prices of gas across the world, we introduced lower prices for the sector of small and medium-sized enterprises.

As a result, the average quarter for 1 megawatt-hour was at around PLN 201, which was down versus June this year. Especially, we had to remember about lower costs of gas in the segment due to falling prices on the spot market and the monthly contracts compared to the third quarter of 2022, the price at TTF was lower by 84%. The average price of all transactions at spot and other transactions, we are talking about 276 megawatt-hour, going down by 26% year-on-year. The average prices of gas transferred from production or upstream segments to the gas segment is also presented on this slide.

In the third quarter, PGNiG Obrót Detaliczny also received compensation from the Price Difference Payment Fund in the amount of PLN 1.5 billion. For our distribution activities, we generated solid EBITDA, compared to the third quarter of 2022, before consolidation. Volume of imports of gas to Poland in the third quarter of the year came in at around 43 terawatt-hours, of which 41% was LNG imports. The sale of gas outside of the Orlen Group went down year-on-year, mainly on the back of consolidation of companies. A large volume is now sold within the group. On PGNiG Obrót Detaliczny, the figure also went down, mainly as a result of higher average temperatures and as a result, lower consumption of gas for heating purposes.

For the perspective of the segment, we saw a good effect of sold prices. The volume of distribution remained comparable to the volume reported last year. We reported 99% in terms of our storage capacity, so we're talking about very safe levels. We are very much ready for the heating season. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, it was comparable and came in at 98%. In terms of cash flows, I will give the floor over now to Mr. Jan Szewczak .

Jan Szewczak
CFO, Orlen

Thank you very much. Let me go back to our financial data. Focusing first on our cash flows from operations and investments.

In the third quarter, we generated cash flows from operations, I'm sorry, at PLN 7.2 billion, with a positive LIFO effect at PLN 1.3 million, and a negative impact on the settlements of derivatives, minus PLN 1.2 billion. We paid taxes, obviously, which had an impact. We also had a change in provisions. We also had a settlement of grants for property rights at minus PLN 1 billion. We reported 10.2 in terms of our spending. The effect of other cash flows, mainly due to purchase of CO2 emission allowances, property rights, and a change in advance payments, came in at minus PLN 2.6 billion. Year to date, for the nine months of the year, we generated more than PLN 34 billion in EBITDA LIFO operating profit.

This shows the scale of our growth and our potential, obviously, the fact that our decisions were well thought. The LIFO effect came at a minus PLN 0.3 billion. Working capital decrease came in at PLN 14.4. CapEx represented more than PLN 20 billion year to date for the nine months. It all happened in the context of a payment of historically record-high payout of the dividend. We also purchased CO2 emission allowances and property rights. We spent an enormous amount of PLN 8.2 billion. Had it not been for those obligations and spending figures, our performance would have been better. In total, in terms of all taxes, we paid more than PLN 51 billion year to date, which is a gigantic, humongous amount, we'll also have more spending, obviously.

At the end of the year, we will probably be talking about more than PLN 60 billion. This is our obligation that we will be paying in terms of taxes and an inflow to the Polish budget. As a result, our net debt went up by PLN 1 billion year-on-year, which is not a major increase in terms of debt. I'll talk about it later on. We can say that we can be sure, and you can rest assured that our situation, financial situation, remains very solid. Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2022, our debt in general went down, and in terms of net debt, by 6.1. As a result, at the end of the quarter, net debt amounted to PLN 1.3 billion.

Quarter by quarter, our net debt increased by PLN 11.4 billion as a result of net outflow from investments at PLN 10.5 billion, the dividend paid out in the amount of PLN 6.4 billion, combined with net inflow from operations at PLN 7.2 billion. As far as the relation of our net debt to EBITDA covenant, which is obviously of much interest to all financial analysts, it was at the mere of 0.08 times the acceptable level for the company, for the group, which is included in the strategy, is at 2.5. This shows that we have the financial strength that we need. In terms of our finance sources, as I said before, they are well diversified, with the average weighted maturity date in 2026.

Something very important I'd like to remind you of, today, our ratings from global institutions, in terms of our investment grades, include A3 with stable outlook from Moody's, as well as BBB+ with stable outlook from Fitch. The most renowned global rating agencies decided that our stability is very solid. In terms of our CapEx and our spending, you have to remember that if you don't invest, you'll go back. Not only stop in your tracks, but you will go back. We do not slow down our investment activities, despite very high increase in terms of the cost of our CapEx projects and investments, an increase in the cost of feedstocks, labor costs, and so on. We still believe that those processes need to be continued, and we need to have a forward-looking strategy.

Our forecast of CapEx spending is at PLN 36 or 30+ billion, because it all depends on the decisions that will be taken in the process, which is double the figure compared to the last year. This shows you the scale of our growth. 70% of the amount will be spent on development projects, growth projects, because we believe that this is the leverage that we need in order to grow, in order to prosper, and this is also a guarantee for increasing the energy security and independence in terms of feedstock supplies for Poland. Obviously, the detailed list of the projects, CapEx projects, is presented on the slide. Year to date, our CapEx spending exceeded PLN 20 billion, and the split by segment is quite equal.

I mean, the petchem, upstream, energy, and all, and refining, obviously. We expect that CapEx spending will be increased in the quarters to come, and the investments will be accelerated. In terms of our outlook for the macroeconomic environment, Mr. Artwich will now continue.

Armen Artwich
Management Board Member for Corporate Affairs, Orlen

In terms of our macro environment in the fourth quarter of the year, the current quarter, we need to say that, first of all, Brent crude oil price goes up by 6% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the conflict between Israel and Palestine, which obviously fuels the uncertainty in this very sensitive region in terms of the crude oil, that is the Middle East. This is also due to low reserves in the United States of America. Model refining margin went down by 40...

almost 40% year-on-year, mainly due to the negative effect of lower margins on diesel oil, gasoline, and heavy fuel oil, as well as higher prices of natural gas. The differential went down by $0.6 per barrel, down to -$1.6 per barrel, mainly, obviously, due to the replacement of REBCO Russian crude oil with alternative, but higher crude oils from Norway, from the United States or Saudi Arabia. The margins, that is the crack for petrochemical products, are going up slowly. The fourth quarter is very important, especially taking into account the above-mentioned, very unfavorable macro situation in the previous quarter for the petrochemical segment. During our previous conference calls, we, both me and Mr.

Szewczak said that petrochemical market is cyclic in nature, those cycles are unspecific, because they are long cycles. We are talking about several or even more than 10 years in terms of cycles, slow signs of slowdowns are observed. The prices, TTF and also TGA, gas prices go up, the strikes in LNG terminals in Australia, we are talking about macro environment. In terms of gas, this is a global market. Even a strike at the gas terminal in Australia will increase the prices of gas prices also for the Orlen Group. We also had a close down of the Groningen field, which is of the largest gas field in Europe, a breakdown in the Baltic Connector between Finland and Estonia. According to media reports, this breakdown was intentional.

Moving on to our outlook, market outlook. For the last quarter of the year, we expect the average crude oil price at about $80 per barrel. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the price in the short term may even go up to $90 per barrel. Our refining margin is expected at around $15 per barrel. Differential is expected at about $1.5 per barrel. The petrochemical margin is expected to go down by 20% year-on-year. We expect natural gas prices at around 200 PLN per megawatt-hour. Electricity prices at around 500 PLN per megawatt-hour.

Jan Szewczak
CFO, Orlen

For the entire year, versus 2022, we expect that the consumption of petrochemical products and fuels to go down, lower gas consumption, obviously due to energy crisis and high feedstock prices, as well as reductions in terms of domestic consumption, with comparable usage of electricity. This is a high effect of the high base of last year. In terms of regulatory environment versus the previous quarter, we had and we saw no major changes which could impact our business to any significant extent.

Operator

Thank you very much for your attention. I do believe that we are now ready to move on to the Q&A session. Thank you very much for this presentation and discussion of our financial and of our performance and results. We'll now move on to the questions that we have been receiving. Mr.

Tomasz Wypych
Analyst, Salon24

Wypych of Salon24 asks: "When service stations or fuel stations in Austria will be brought on stream to your network?"

Jan Szewczak
CFO, Orlen

We expect that the transaction will be finalized. I am talking about, to remind you, 266 service stations under the Turmöl brand. We expect this transaction to be finalized at the turn of 2023 and 2024, so in just a couple of months, or 2 months. The consent or the green light from the EC has already been given. We will be present in the seventh market. In addition to a network of service stations, we are also taking over a network of electric vehicle charging stations and, importantly, fleet card business. They are widely recognized, broadly recognized in the Austrian market.

At the turn of the year, we expect that this transaction will be completed and finalized. Thank you very much. Polish Radio, Mr. Prostek asks: "What is your assessment in terms of your liquidity situation in the context of a payout of a record-breaking dividend at 6.4 billion PLN?" Well, to pay out such an enormous amount to our shareholders, you need to, or you must have a solid liquidity on your side. If you don't have solid liquidity situation, which did happen in previous times, long gone, obviously, you were not able to pay out such high dividends. Our dividend policy is well thought. It is consistent. We do believe that if we make profit, we will share those profits with our shareholders.

We're not talking about last year's dividend, which was paid out in September this year, but we're talking about a consistent dividend path, which is expected for the years to come. I do believe that this is the path to take. The dividend, we're talking about, around almost PLN 6.5 billion. It is record high, it is a record-high dividend payment in the Polish capital market. We managed to pay out such a high dividend in the context of such a great CapEx spending figure. We're talking about more than PLN 20 billion, and it will go up by the end of the year still.

At the same time, in the third quarter, we were able to have net cash, free net cash at PLN 1.3 billion at hand, as well as our credit lines, which came in at PLN 27 billion. All in all, we can say that we can only wish that such a solid liquidity situation remains with us for the years to come. Both the way we secure our financing sources, the savings that we made with the rationalization of costs that we make, is a good path to follow, and we do hope that Orlen is still able to share our profits, such high profits generated by the company, with both the shareholders and also the state budget.

We are talking about more than PLN 50 billion paid in taxes, which is an enormous amount, an enormous injection to the state budget. Mr. Apanowicz, ISB News, asks why the prices of fuels go up, and what are the prospects for the weeks to come? As you well know, those of you who look into crystal ball are able to actually calculate the price precisely, what should the price of gasoline or diesel oil, what it should be. But this is a couch warrior strategy, so to speak. We need to remember about the uncertainty of certain events. Some events cannot be foreseen, such as the conflict in the Middle East. This is a region that is fundamental for the petrochemical segment, for the refining segment.

We believe that being consistent, being, in a way, stubborn in the way we focus on the mergers and the consolidation with PGNiG, Energa, and Lotos, it gave us a certain buffer. It gave us a certain advantage, competitive edge. We were able to optimize our purchase and procurement activities, strengthened our potential, trading potential, and also bargaining power. This is why we were able to offer you practically the lowest prices all around Europe. Obviously, we have a number of smaller companies, but talking about large European price countries, these prices were the lowest, and those prices are the most stable at the same time. Obviously, we'll also have certain dissatisfied and disgruntled people where prices were quite high last year at fuel stations.

We're talking about more than 7.8 PLN for 1 liter of diesel, oil, and gasoline last year. Those people claimed that we are actually upping the prices unreasonably. Today, they are saying that these prices, the current prices, are too low. They were talking about a miracle at oil at fuel stations at Orlen. Obviously, we need to remember about the volatility in the market around the world. The situation is uncertain. We are maybe at the verge of a very major conflict in the Middle East, and we are talking about trading routes. We were talking about the areas around Saudi Arabia, which is a major exporter of crude oil. We're also talking about recession effects in European and global economy.

All in all, you need to actually track the situation on an ongoing basis and adjust your prices accordingly. Please do not give any listening ear to those stories that we hear in the press, the stories that we will see 10 PLN or 15 PLN per liter. Some other people will claim that we should have prices at 5 PLN because there's some magic that can be put into work. It is not so. We depend on the military, political, economic situation around the world. Any decision taken around the world, including regulatory decisions or political decisions, for instance, to lift an embargo or lift sanctions in Venezuela, it all has an impact on our prices. What we are trying to do is to stabilize our price policy, and we obviously were impacted...

Well, obviously, for this reason, we established an Swiss-based company, and which was responsible for those activities as well. The purchase made by our trading company in Switzerland turns out to be more advantageous than the purchases made in Poland or from other importers. This was worthwhile, the purchase was worthwhile. This is a new instrument, and we will take advantage of it in the future as well. As I said before, the situation in the world, for a number of reasons, it is volatile. It's volatile, uncertain, and it will have an impact on the prices. We had a crisis meeting, convened by the European Union, but also the forecasts of the World Bank it points clearly to potential future increases in prices.

We will continue our stabilizing policy, the policy of low prices offered to our clients. We want to reduce the volatility of prices due to the uncertainty around the world. We will do our best, our utmost, to make sure that the prices in Poland remain to be one of the lowest prices all around Europe, and we do believe that we are successful in this area so far, and we have been successful. Please do not give a listening ear to any homegrown experts, couch warrior experts. Everybody can think up certain solutions. In real terms, you need to know the supply chains, you need to know the hazards, you need to know the supply across the world and global markets. It can change abruptly.

It is, for instance, if a certain exporter cuts down on production, the prices will be affected, the same applies for gas. You need to act swiftly, we do believe that we are very effective in this department. We do not take care of certain absurd allegations. We do believe that we have been successfully implementing and delivering our price policy to the benefit of our clients, customers. Mr. Stachura, BiznesAlert.pl asks: "Why do we see such an increase of retail volumes in the Czech Republic?" Thank you for this question. We discussed an increase in sales volumes in the Czech Republic, going up by 61%, let me remind you. Without an additional explanation, you might be caught by surprise of this humongous increase.

We would like to see a physical growth, actually, but unfortunately, we cannot say that it is so. When we reported data for the retail segment, we break it down into sub-units, subgroups: Poland, Germany, Lithuanian, Czech Republic. The retail Czech Republic includes the market that is served by the subsidiaries of ORLEN Unipetrol. We're talking about Slovak and Hungarian market. As you remember, in the past months, in recent months, ORLEN Group increased the network of stations in Hungary, and also the number of stations in Slovakia went up. The group, which we call retail market in Czech Republic, includes an increase of more than 61%, but it includes certain subgroups. I do hope that this figure is more obvious to you and clear to you.

Polish Press Agency asks. ISB News asks about the planned CapEx spending in 2024 across ORLEN Group. By 2025, it was expected to increase every year. Is it so? Yes, I have already discussed it, and this year shows that this increase, we're talking about PLN 30-something billion in CapEx spending. It will be more. This is double the figure compared to last year's CapEx spending, and we expect that 2024 will be comparable in terms of the scale of our CapEx spending and investments. By 2030, we want to spend PLN 320 billion in total. This is a gigantic amount, and also spending more than PLN 20 billion on zero-emission or low-emission energy sources.

This is a major process of upgrade and modernization of the Polish industry, which we haven't seen for, around more than 10 years. The previous decades were actually the sale of Polish companies, profitable companies, big companies. We saw no major investments. We only started seeing those projects in the last decade. I'm talking about large-scale investment processes in Poland. Sometimes they are met with a backlash or with envy from those who are not able to have such investments. We do believe that this is the strategy to take, and this is obviously highlighted in the document, strategy by 2020 - 2030 . To remain a major player in the market, and to be a major player in the market, we need to invest, and we do believe that if you are able to make money...

As you can see, we are able to make money and have profits at a stable market, combined with low prices for the end customer, we need to remember that we have to invest in, for instance, hydrogen, in biofuels. In the end, we will have new jobs and new sources of profit, and thereby improving the living situation of the citizens of Poland. Thank you very much. This is a wrap of today's conference calls. If you have not answered any of those questions that we received, they will be answered by our press office. Thank you very much. See you next time.

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