Welcome everybody. Thank you for joining us in the conference call regarding strategy of ORLEN Group, 2030, an update of the strategy. We have a bunch of directors, and we will go through the presentation, and after that, we will open floor for Q&A session. Karol Wolff, Head of Strategy. Karol, floor is yours.
Konrad, thank you. Thank you very much for for the introduction. Ladies and gentlemen, we had a pleasure to announce the new strategy update of the Orlen 2030 strategy today. Let me share one personal comment in the beginning. Today is almost anniversary of my start of working at PKN Orlen. I have been involved in preparation of five strategies before. This one is the sixth one. This one was the most challenging one. We have new configuration of the group. We have experienced significant turbulences on energy markets. We are pre-pressured by long-term trends that shape our industry. I will describe them on the next slide.
We after the merger, ORLEN Group after the merger, we are the strong multi-energy company with sound financial position. We are well prepared for for the coming years, for the years of energy transition. After merger with PGNiG, we have seven refineries in Central Europe. We have significant upstream presence with about 200,000 BOE of average daily oil and gas production. We have over 3,000 fuel stations in Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, and Hungary. We are active on over 100 markets.
We have built through last years and through the last acquisitions, a strong position, a strong presence in energy markets with a portfolio of over 5 GW of energy capacity, including 0.7 GW of renewable energy. We are the leader of energy transition in Central Europe as well. Today, we announced new targets for CO2 reduction, new aspirations for this decade. We want to decrease our emissions in oil and gas by 25% till the end of this decade. We increase the target for energy as well. We want to spend about 40% of our total CapEx on green projects. We will describe them later in this presentation.
We want to build a diversified portfolio of those type of energies that are used by our customers, and that would help to decarbonize our company. We are investing in electromobility, in biogas, or renewable hydrogen, for example. All of these aspects should allow us to realize about PLN 400 billion of EBITDA in the period till 2040. How do we think about ORLEN Group's strategy? What is the strategic logic behind our group portfolio? We are active in wide range of business areas, especially after the merger. We cover almost entire oil and gas value chain and almost whole energy value chain.
We have split it in our strategy, the business lines into three groups, three layers. The first layer, called Maximizing Performance, is the group where we want to maximize the value of current assets but not invest very strongly. The second group of business areas, which is Strategic Development, is our core area of interest. The core focus of the strategy. Here, we have business lines like petrochemicals, renewables or gas upstream that we find very important for the future of ORLEN Group. The third layer, which is Investing in the Future, is the layer where we want to focus on the new businesses, new business areas, where we see potential.
We see potential for higher growth and higher, and higher per-intensive perspective for this decade. They are not... In our opinion, they are not so ready to be heavily invested right now. Here one remark because we have changed allocation of the business areas in few cases between now and 2020. For example, in 2020, we perceived electromobility as investing in the future. Now, looking at the trends in Western and Central Europe, we have moved electromobility to strategic development, which is reflected in our strategic goals that we want to achieve in this strategy. Saying about strategic goals, let me summarize a few of the most important numbers in each business area.
Let me summarize the key targets, key aspirations of ORLEN Group, by 2030. In refining, we want to keep our presence, and we want to keep the crude throughput capacity on the level that we have right now after a merger with LOTOS. In gas-fired power, we want to maximize the value from existing assets, but we want to realize or finish the investments we have already started, and add some new capacity. In fuel and fuel retailers, we want to keep the fuel stations network at the level that we have right now.
In strategic development, the biggest change, I think from our point is increase the target of installed renewable capacity from 2.5 GW two years ago to 9 GW now. We see renewables as the base of development in the power segment, power generation segment. Of course, we want to maintain the targets in petrochemicals. We want to increase the share of advanced petrochemicals in our portfolio. In terms of downstream, there are two more business areas or business aspects that are important for us. One of it was mentioned two years ago.
The second one is new. The biofuels, where we increase our aspirations from production of 2 million tons of biofuels by 2030 to 3 million tons. Biogas and biomethane, we want to produce about 1 bcm of biogas by 2030. Another important area, as I said, for keeping our safety and keeping sustainability of our business is gas, is gas upstream, where we want to increase the gas production, gas upstream production, gas upstream production to 12 bcm per year in 2030. Lastly, in retail, electromobility is a new target with much higher aspirations. In the third layer, investing in the future very briefly.
Hydrogen, renewable hydrogen, we declared high ambitions or we think about hydrogen as an important factor for our growth. We want to have over 140 [terawatts] of renewable hydrogen production by 2030. We want to enter synthetic fuels business, we want to enter nuclear business by investing in the first small modular reactor in Poland. We want to be present in carbon capture and storage business. We want to be able to capture about 8 million tons of CO2 by 2030.
That direction are reflected in in our CapEx spending share. We want to spend over PLN 320 billion by 2030, of which about 40% on green projects. As green, we treat the whole new energy segment, but we see, as I said, we have green investments in refining, biofuels, and in conventional power and networks, but splitting the CapEx between segments, you can see that there is pretty balanced diversification of CapEx. There is no point that is highlighted or that is invested strongly.
The spend on upstream, new energy, conventional energy, and refining, including bio-refining, are pretty balanced. In our opinion, they create a balanced portfolio of our businesses and balanced portfolio of new and old business lines. Next slide presents the biggest projects in our green portfolio. As I said, very briefly, 2 GW of renewables, 1 bcm of biogas, 3 million tons of biofuels, over 10,000 EV charging stations, clean renewable hydrogen, SMR. As we declared two years ago, we want to achieve... We have the ambition to achieve net zero by 2030.
We keep those ambitions. We have refilled our 2030 targets after the merger. We want to decrease emissions in oil and gas, so refining petrochemicals and upstream by 25% in absolute values till 2030. We want to decrease intensity of energy production by 40% instead of 33% that we have declared two years ago. We have introduced a new indicator, Net Carbon Intensity. The reduction of Scope 3 emissions that we want to decrease by 15% till the end of decade, this decade. Our strategy should bring us about PLN 60 billion of group EBITDA by 2030.
We see now or we see from our models that half of the operating profit comes from current asset base and from current businesses, and half of the asset base will be generated by the new investments as shown in this graph. In the next two sections, I would like to describe a bit more context and the starting point for our strategy. Starting point for and describe you the biggest challenges and the biggest changes that happened since 2020 and that have impacted our strategy significantly.
First, we have finalized the process of merger with Energa, LOTOS and PGNiG. We have created a truly oil and gas company that is active throughout the whole oil and gas value chain. We have created company that is active in energy value chain, from power generation to direct sales to households. We built on the integration, we build on the synergies, and we want to utilize the synergies that we identify and that we want to use as part of building of our business. So far we have identified over PLN 10 billion of synergies from acquisitions in terms of cash.
There are more intangible synergies, like for example increase of financial ratings by historic notches, or increase in human capital of the organization. The portfolio of our businesses and combine of competencies of our employees, like bringing us additional business opportunities and business applications possibilities. Just few numbers on ORLEN Group today. I don't want to go through all of them, but I would like to draw your attention of some most important from our point of view elements.
Upstream, we have a production which in a combined group is much higher than it was in all ORLEN Group. This is mainly due to merger with PGNiG and LOTOS as well. Our average hydrocarbon production is about 2,000 BOE per day. In energy, as I said, over 5.1 GW of installed capacity include 0.7 GW in renewables and 1.7 GW in gas-fired units. In retail, we serve millions of customers, selling them fuels, selling them electricity, and selling them gas in Poland and in Central Europe.
We want to build on the strong base of our customer base, and we want to use the potential of such broad presence in the group. Of course, gas, which is heritage of PGNiG, significant gas import, over 200 LNG deliveries to Poland, and very wide gas distribution network. On next two pages, we wanted to share with you some messages that we have developed dring the two last years. We are on track with our targets that we have set two years ago. In refining, we have increased the capacity due to lot of mergers. At the same time, we are investing in biofuels.
We are finishing ekofarm projects in Poland. We are investing in HVO installations in Płock refinery. We are investing in bioethanol installation in Poland as well. There is no increase so far, but in next quarter we will or next quarters we will open new installations. Petrochemicals, we are advanced in preparation of the projects with our Or in discussions about these projects with our partners. In recycling, we realized acquisition of one company in Czech Republic. In energy, we have increased capacity both in renewables and gas-fired power plants. In retails, we have increased our presence by acquiring stations in Hungary and Slovakia.
We have increased the share of non-fuel margin as well. Upstream, the upstream today, the upstream of ORLEN Group today is very different from the upstream of ORLEN Group before the mergers. We are ready to build a company that is driven by sustainable development. We implement processes and solutions that would help us to manage the climate-related issues. Here I wanted to focus your attention on the right column on the slide, where we give some examples of the policies or functions that we have implemented during the last two years. We have a member of the board responsible for climate and sustainability.
We have Climate and Sustainability Council, as well as we introduce climate policies and thorough analysis of climate scenarios according with Paris Agreement. That was about Orlen. As I said at the beginning of this presentation, the markets have changed significantly as well, both in terms of long-term trends and in terms of current market developments. Just a few examples, because we are not in the presentation about trends, but about Orlen and Orlen, the future. We see a significant increase of or we see significant trend changes in trends that will impact our businesses. For example, electromobility, exponential growth in Western Europe of electric cars.
Growth in Central Europe in Poland as well, but at local pace. We expect that that will follow Western European patterns. Renewable energy growth up in Western and Central Europe as well. Short-term trends. We of course are in the middle of the energy crisis that we experienced since the end of second half of 2021. What is important for us and what I want to underline here is that we live in a world of volatility. The prices of energy resources and the prices of energy is very volatile and it is very hard to forecast nowadays. The volatility is something that drives our...
or that impacts our thinking about the future, and impacts our, our strategy as well. Finally, new opportunities. In all of our, in all of our business segments there are new opportunities that will shape or that will impact our future. We want to utilize them. We want our future business to be built on them. We want to be significant player in the energy business in the future. Thank you from my side. Let me hand over, guys, now to Stanisław Piekarski, the Head of Sustainability and Energy Transition, who will describe the strategic aspirations of our group and the decarbonization targets of ORLEN Group till 2030.
Hello, good afternoon. Yes, I will try to walk you through the more detailed information about our aspirations and plans for the coming decade by the end of 2030. The first slide of this part you can see is something that big part of this was already described by Karol. What is worth mentioning on the, on the light gray column, you see our aspirations for 2030 in different fields of new energy, fields of strategic play that we announced two years ago that we are today. By 2030, you can see our aspirations. You can see that the growth in green energy field is very high.
First line you can see renewables, that is going to increase up to over 9 GW in energy. We are going to allocate over PLN 50 billion for this investment. Biofuels already mentioned, we are increasing our aspiration up to over 3 million tons. Biogas, which is both biogas and biomethane, over 1 billion cubic meters until the end of this decade. Renewable hydrogen, also, we are very much concentrated on this field. Over, you know, 130 kilotons by the end of 2029. E-mobility.
Today we have 600 charging points and we are aiming to have to overpass 10,000 of fast charging points by the end of this decade. At the same time, we are strengthening our position in existing we can say traditional business of our activity. The few things to be mentioned here already was said that we are increasing our gas production up to 12 billion cubic meters, and we are allocating PLN 70 billion for this. High increase in specialty petrochemicals in our portfolio, up to over 25%.
Refining capacities is stable as is today as it is in our strategic logic of maximizing value of the assets that we possess today. High increase in CCGT's power plants and low emission power plants up to approximately 4 GW in 2030. Then fuel sales, we are still going to increase the number of fuel stations that we will be operating in the region up to 3,500 by the end of this decade. Now let me make a deep dive for three KPIs in our decarbonization strategy that were presented some minutes ago by Karol.
First of all, here what you can see is our, I would say the most important KPI, which is our absolute reduction of emissions from refining petrochemical and upstream by 25% until 2030. What is, what is worth mentioning is and shows how seriously we treat our decarbonization strategy, is that we updated this KPI referring to the previous ambition in three dimensions. First of all, we pledge to speed up this decarbonization path by 5 percentage points. Secondly, we included upstream in the KPI because previously we only referred to refining and petrochemical. Thirdly, we are including today, we are pledging to include development projects in this KPI.
We are not only referring to the assets that we possessed in 2019, but also we include to this kind of calculation the new investment that we are working on and we will realize until the end of this decade. How are we going to achieve this reduction? What you can see on the rest of right side of the slide are the groups of activities, investments, tools that we are going to use to achieve this 25% reduction goal, which are reduction of methane emission from upstream, energy efficiency improvements in our current assets, CCUS and low carbon energy sources, both in Scope 1 and Scope 2.
The second decarbo- KPI, also already mentioned, is minus 40% of our intensity in of emissions in our energy production. I will stop over here for a second. On the left side of the slide, you can see what is our current or what was our production of power and heat in 2019. It was 29 TW hours. We are going to double this number, almost double this number by 2030, but at the same time, as you can see on the top part of the left side of the slide, decrease our emissions from those power generation by 40%.
At the same time, here we want to pledge that by the end of 2033, we are going to totally coal, totally exit from production energy from both power and heat from coal, and you can see more specifically how we are going to realize this, to realize this goal on the right side of the slide. That includes obviously our investment in gas CCGTs, power generation units and strong speed up in renewables investments, and also at the end of this decade, SMRs, first SMRs that we first SMRs that will begin to operate.
The last KPI that we announced today is the Net Carbon Intensity that expresses the carbon intensity of the energy, all energy that we sell as ORLEN Group. We are pledging to decrease the NCI for ORLEN Group by 15% by 2030. This KPI refers to our emissions in Scope 1 and 2. Our emissions of our clients in Category 11 in Scope 3, minus CCUS that we offer as a service for external clients. That refers to the energy, the content, energy content of the energy products that we sell, that's fuels, electricity, and heat.
You can see, again, though here you have mentioned the KPIs in renewables or green energy that will allow us to realize, to fulfill this KPI for decreasing emissions from NCI by 20%.
Building value of ORLEN Group, Konrad Włodarczyk speaking. As you see on the slide, we're gonna build the value in the six main areas. Of course, those areas are a little bit different than the current segmental breakdown, but don't worry, current segmental breakdown is still valid, so you don't have to change your models. Cumulative EBITDA for years 2023, 2030 will exceed PLN 400 billion , so PLN 50 billion on the yearly basis, reaching more than PLN 60 billion in 2030. The main contributor will be Upstream Segment, delivering 30% of cumulative EBITDA, followed by Energy and Refining. Petchem and Retail will deliver up to 10% of cumulative EBITDA each. Next slide, Upstream and Gas Trading. Slide number 28, as I see.
Upstream, despite significant EBITDA generation, is the segment where mergers can generate many synergies. Definitely essential is to ensure Poland's energy security via production and supply of natural gas. Production currently has an international range. Yeah. In terms of Poland, we are maintaining exploration and optimizing upstream to ensure production at current level. We are assuming here a moderate growth. Current production is around 4 bcm per year. In Norway, simultaneous investment in organic growth and potential M&A. Expected production of 6 bcm per year plus. Maximizing value from other assets. Keeping upstream assets in Pakistan, developing upstream activities in Libya and United Arab Emirates, and cautious continuation approach in Canada. We expect that total production will increase to more than 12 bcm of gas.
Gas is not only the security of the industry, but also the security of growth of renewables. Within ORLEN Group, we plan to develop gas-based power generation to complement renewable sources' capacity. With regard to gas supply, we will ensure a portfolio of contracts balancing the demand of our clients, enabling to take advantage of the optionality offered by free on board contracts. Contracts for more than 15 bcm per year are already signed. These are both FOB and Delivered Ex- Ship contracts with existing and new suppliers. Trading strengthening to enable maximize trade margins, and adequate transport capacity to ensure the entire volume of FOB shipments from the U.S. with a fleet of owned and chartered tankers. Next slide. Slide number 29.
Main financial targets in upstream segment. As you see, EBITDA increased from PLN 4 billion up to PLN 16 billion in 2030. Cumulative EBITDA at the level of PLN 110 billion . Yearly average CapEx at the level of 8.3 bcm. Cumulative CapEx at the level of PLN 65 billion . Next slide. Slide number 30. Refining. In the refining segment, we want to maximize the value, and we see the need definitely to invest in green projects. In terms of refining assets, we wanna focus on, first of all, maximizing value of refineries through the optimization of Płock refinery configuration. Execution of projects with a business rationale, taking into account the necessary infrastructure and logistics projects.
Implementation of operational excellence program within the group. Reducing the maintenance CapEx for Płock refinery, but of course, maintaining best safety practices. R&D and pilot program of biowaste processing technology and conversion to petrochemicals. Second area is strengthening logistics and trading via securing access to logistic assets on the key market, as well as building a solid trading. The third element is the carbonization. This is going via through the reduction of CO2 emission by 25%, yeah, 4 million tons by 2030, mainly through CCS, so carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, potentially TPOX, so partial oxidation unit or other technologies, redirecting heavy residual from CHP.
In terms of green transition, we will significantly develop biofuel capacity, and this is the response for the change in the scope of biofuel that is implied by the evolution of strategic framework. I'm talking about RED III directive that implies the need to obtain between 5 PJ up to 700 PJ of renewable energy, which means additional several 10 million tons up to 16 million tons of alternative fuels to be introduced into the market in Europe. Current size of biofuel market in Europe is, roughly speaking, 20 million tons. Taking into account fuel sales volumes in ORLEN Group, we will strive for leadership in biofuel segment in Central Eastern region.
Our key objectives are expanded base of production assets, providing a pathway to aviation fuels or green petrochemicals, particularly HVO, so Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil. Secured raw material base for biofuel production, all production assets and sourcing of finished products and raw materials. Effective optimization of advanced fuel mix on the basis of economic criteria, taking into account the cost of raw materials, logistics, media, et cetera, in a, let's say, changing regulatory environment. We are increasing our ambition in biofuel production in 2030 from 2 million tons presented two years ago, up to 3 million tons. Next slide number 31. Main operational and financial targets in refining segment.
EBITDA decreased from PLN 24 billion. Please bear in mind that, this level was generated in extraordinary environment, this year with, high margins down to still decent PLN 8 billion in 2030. In recent years, just to remind you, refining segment deliver up to PLN 5 billion EBITDA LIFO on the yearly basis. PLN 8 billion, looks, quite decent, as I've mentioned. Cumulative EBITDA, for 2023-2030 at the level of PLN 85 billion. The yearly average CapEx at the level of, PLN 7.6 billion, of which 30% is dedicated to green projects. Cumulative CapEx at the level of, PLN 60 billion. Next slide. Slide number 32. Petchem.
Our key target in petchem segment are, first of all, strong petchem with a growing share of advanced petrochemicals in the product mix that will increase to above 25% in 2030. Strong marketing and sales, particularly of advanced products and portfolio of petchem assets enabling processing of bio and alternative feedstocks, as well as development of recycling within circular economy. How to achieve those goals? First of all, via building a feedstock base for petrochemicals. We're gonna complete olefin expansion program with analysis of target optimal configuration of the site, including downstream facilities, for example, LDPE for Ethylene and value chain extension option on aromatics and propylene.
value chain extension, so I mean organic and through M&A, as well as analysis of the possibility of expanding petchem in Gdańsk with a partner. We are fairly advanced in talks with Saudi Aramco right now. Building value on existing assets. Building a central sales and commercial organization, including product development, tailored to effectively locate the future product portfolio of the market. I mean, including IT tools and representatives' office. Very important aspect is growth of green petrochemicals. Further expansion of the position in recycling, particularly chemical recycling and the position in green petrochemistry, including green petrochemicals and green petrochemical feedstock. Building the need of organization, competencies and partnership focused on the sourcing of bio and alternative raw materials. Next slide. Slide number 33.
Main and financial targets in petchem segment. EBITDA increased from PLN 3 billion up to PLN 6 billion in 2030. Cumulative EBITDA at the level of PLN 35 billion. Yearly CapEx at the level of PLN 5.1 billion and cumulative at the level of PLN 40 billion. Thank you very much. Now I hand over to Marek Garniewski.
Thank you, Konrad. Good morning, everyone. Good afternoon. Let's move to the energy segment. Within the conventional energy segment, the focus is on gas-fired power generation, the modernization of grid, both electricity and gas grid, and development of new SMR technologies. We will execute projects in Ostroleka and Grudziądz, and additional projects in Czech Republic and Poland are also being analyzed. By 2030, ORLEN Group will have around 4 GW of CCGT capacity. In our approach, these gas-fired power plants will, in the short term, replace the oldest, most carbon-intensive, and least efficient coal-fired power plant and CHP plant. In the long term, especially after 2030, ensure that the stabilization of renewable, energy source-based system operations will be available.
We want to become the operator of a portfolio of assets that will include six large gas and steam units, including four new ones that will decarbonize and balance the Polish electricity system. By replacing the aging coal-fired power plants and combined heat and power plants. Those are in Ostrołęka with a capacity of 750 MW hours, megawatts installed capacity, electrical production, which means it translates to high decarbonization potential. Construction to replace the coal-fired unit at an advanced stage with high potential. Also in Grudziądz with a capacity of 560 MW, also high decarbonization potential. The construction is at advanced stage of implementation and double-digit expected IRR.
In Gdańsk with a capacity of 450 MW, and in Litvínov with a capacity of up to 300 MW. The generating capacity will be complemented by an electricity and gas distribution network. Our goal for 2030 is to have a modernized and well-developed electricity distribution network, including connections to renewables, renewable sources which work towards Poland's energy transition and ensure the continuity and reliability of energy supply. Currently, ORLEN Group operates 193,000 km of power lines of all voltages over one-fourth of Poland's area, which means energy distribution to somewhere around 3.3 million customers carried out by energy operators.
In the field of gas distribution, on the other hand, our goal for 2030 is to implement the investment plan of ORLEN Group in the field of gas distribution, focused on the modernization of the gas network and on the cost-optimal expansion of gas source connections, including biomethane plants. ORLEN Group operates 200,000 km of gas distribution network, including connections supplying gas to somewhere around 1,700 municipalities in Poland. This translates into gas distribution to somewhere around 7.4 million customers realized under the PGNiG operation. The volume of gas delivered last year was somewhere around 13 million cubic meters. Investment in SMR technology, which is small nuclear reactors, will also guarantee a stable energy supply.
By 2030, we will have 1 SMR unit in Poland with a capacity of 300 MW acquired in partnership by a JV company. This is a new area. It was not in the 2020 strategy. Why SMRs? Small nuclear reactors, on one hand, do not have the problem of generation unpredictability, and on the other hand, their smaller scale allows private entities, not just states, to bear the investment, as in the case with the classical reactors. ORLEN Group, as a part of ORLEN Synthos Green Energy joint venture, is working with GE Hitachi to build a fleet of BWRX-300 reactors in Poland. So 300 MW of electricity production power units, based on BWR, so boiling water reactor technology.
The first unit of this type is being built in the Canadian province of Ontario. SMR technology also allows the carbonization of large and very important sector such as the heating industry. Industrial plants can also be a heat consumer, depending on heat quality requirements, of course. What about the conventional energy in terms of heat and coal? Orlen takes responsibility for energy transition and energy security. Therefore, we'll develop a long-term plan to decarbonize somewhere around 230 district heating assets. Currently, Orlen has 18 district heating assets, 14 in PGNiG Termika, with 5.5 GW of thermal capacity, and four in Energa Kogeneracja, 4.3 GW of thermal production. These assets are high carbon, coal-based, and difficult to decarbonize.
We are preparing a long-term district heating system transformation plan for Warsaw in cooperation with the district heating system operator and the city authorities as well. This is for the conventional energy segment. Now let's move to the so-called new energy segment. In the area of strategic development, we'll allocate the lion's share of our investment in what we call the new energy segment. In this segment, the two big businesses areas are renewable energy sources and biogas. Renewables is an area where we see a definite acceleration compared to the original strategy two years ago. Today, no one doubts anymore that renewables are a key component of energy development in the coming decade. This is clearly shown by the global trends.
Globally, renewables are expected to become the new primary source of electricity, accounting for 50% of the world's energy mix by 2030 and 85% by 2050. Photovoltaic and wind power are already cheaper than fossil fuel sources in most countries and are expected to become increasingly cost-competitive worldwide. In Poland, where possible, there is rapid development of photovoltaic sources. At the end of 2022, solar PV capacity exceeded 12 GW of installed capacity, of which only 8.6 GW were installed in the last two years, so 2021 and 2022. Orlen's statement regarding the green energy is simple: more wind and more solar. We are more than tripling our renewable energy sources development ambitions. Two years ago, we were talking about 2.5 GW, which already Karol mentioned before. Now we are talking about 9 GW.
This is also significant progress from today's level. We currently have 4.7 GW and are developing 1.2 under Baltic Power. It will be a portfolio of attractive assets, offshore, onshore, and PVs developed in Poland and abroad. The Group ambition is to take the energy industry beyond Poland. We are first considering markets where we are already present, so the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, but also, for example, the North Sea and Norway. We have entered a different league through mergers, and we will be playing an international game, not just local ones. As a result, we assume growth both organically and inorganically through partnerships or mergers in Poland and abroad.
The development of renewable energy sources is the basis for the decarbonization of our business, as well as the fact of modernization of the Polish economy, so forth. It is worth noting that in Poland, the development of renewables must be parallel to the development of the network. Renewable energy sources must be complemented by investments in the grid, both at the level of operators and grid operators. It must be complemented by smart solutions for the distribution network adapting into the development. That is why we see a great need for modernization of DSOs with the possibility of using energy storage technologies or even fast storage power plants. An important element in the development of the power industry is also the development of SMRs, which will replace conventional units, including those based on coal.
Before 2030, there will be mainly preparatory work. Nevertheless, we assume the first investments in the construction of SMRs before 2030. We'll provide more details, including the locations soon. The keyword that supports the development of new energy is also more biogas. The goal is to produce 1 billion cubic meters of biogas by 2030. It's an equivalent to about 650 million cubic meters of biomethane. By 2030, we'll allocate CapEx of over PLN 10 billion for biogas and biomethane development. Just for clarification, biogas is a product of anaerobic decomposition of plants or waste. After the purification process, biomethane is obtained. A direct substitute for natural gas needed in industry or heating. Biogas can also be used to produce bioLNG, decarbonizing transportation. The construction of biogas and biomethane plants is an opportunity for rural development.
We will support the construction of a local value chain through the management of a central resource base and the integration of distributed assets. Hydrogen development is also an essential element of the new energy strategy. Our goal is to position ourself as a regional leader in the production, transportation, distribution, and use of low-carbon hydrogen in industry and transportation. Why hydrogen? Well, hydrogen is the answer to the challenges of sectors that are hard to decarbonize in other ways, because it's a great way to transport energy, basically. The European Union has set an ambitious target for the availability of 20 million tons of green hydrogen in 2030, of which 10 million tons would be produced by itself and 10 million tons might be imported.
The regulations impose requirements for decarbonizing hydrogen production, which is currently sourced from natural gas. We want to achieve this through the process of electrolysis powered by renewable sources. It is possible to produce hydrogen in zero-emission way and use it in industry like refineries, fertilizers, and also in transport, for example, city bus pilot. In the long term, it can be used as an energy source. Renewable energy sources under favorable conditions produce green hydrogen, which is burned in adapted gas power plants. We want to be the operator of about 1 GW of electrolyzers and Waste-to-Hydrogen generation capacity in Central Europe.
In total, this would translate into the production of over 732 kilotons of hydrogen, of which 130 kilotons, so roughly 18%, would be renewable hydrogen and 50 kilotons from waste to H2, which translates to 150 kilotons of green hydrogen. Let's move to the retail. Let's say a new retail, to be honest. In retail area, we are paying special attention to two aspects, electromobility and the integration of the fuel businesses with the power and gas businesses. There is definitely more emphasis on electromobility. According to the data of the end of January 2023, there were a total of 76,000 electric vehicles registered in Poland, where a year earlier these cars were about just half of that amount.
Behind this development, we must develop the infrastructure for charging electric cars. Projections in Germany, on the other hand, are for 15 million electric vehicles in Germany by 2030 and 1 million charging points by the same time. In this context, we can see that the targets we showed two years ago have proven to be far from sufficient. Two years ago, we declared that we would develop the infrastructure for charging electric cars in line with the pace of market development. We declared that we would build 1,000 EV chargers. That's why we are accelerating and increasing the number of chargers. By 2030, we want to build more than 10,000 charging points.
In 2030, we want to have about 20%-30% of share in the market in Poland and Czech Republic, a significant share in Germany, and a presence that enables growth in other markets, such as Hungary. We want to focus on stations and in on-the-go location stations, for example, and destination locations, homes, for example, through Energa. We want to focus primarily on the Polish, Czech, and German markets, where we are already have a presence with more than 500 charging points. The second aspect is the full integration of the retail offer in the ORLEN Group, which is a time-consuming path, but necessary for the full implementation of the strategy and maximization of value.
Our goal is a modern retail offer to offer for the multitudes of our customers, this cannot be done without a modern integrated structure. Integration is only option to ensure that strategic aspirations are realized. Building a fully integrated offering is easier to achieve when all products are offered by a single entity. Integration will also make it possible to ensure that the entire retail business is fully coordinated and efficient, that the offer is managed consistently across the retail business. Integration is important for yet another reason. Digitalization and the construction of modern customer relationship channels. Today's customers expect increasingly easy access to services in digital channels, this requires a consistent approach across all business designs. On the next slide, you can see how we want to approach that transition.
It will be supported by processes and tools enabling delivery of strategic objectives. Among those, we want to highlight specifically operational models, which is a management of business areas to effectively deliver key strategic objectives and segment-based management and risk management. It translates to consolidated financial planning, control, and risk management at the expanded group level. Also by strategic capital allocation and performance excellence. Excellence in project management and selection of the best investment in line with key strategic assumptions, and know-how acquisition and development, which is basically the key competency required to build new growth-driving businesses and maximize value from existing areas. This will be enabled. Well, in one sentence, we will use the best practices from all those companies that we acquire and implement them in all our operations to deliver the strategic objectives.
On the next slide, we show that we are aware that delivery of strategy requires new competencies. We are sure that this will be possible thanks to almost 70,000 people working on this strategy altogether. The employees that have committed to those goals. We observe a strong shift of human resources addressing new areas that drive our business growth. Among those areas are renewables, of course, biofuels, but also e-mobility, renewables, hydrogen and synthetic fuels, and biomethane. We will retain and build new competencies to be able to scale organically and also through acquisitions as well. We are also aware that it is not enough to be present in a high margin and large market, large-scale market.
We want to make sure that new competencies will support our growth, driving businesses. The necessary competencies that we look for are basically strategic partnerships, digitization of our operations, cost optimization, advanced analytics, and strategic asset review, among others. On the next slide, just a short slide about our research and development. We will allocate up to PLN 3 billion to R&D as a group by 2030, with a particular focus on the development of green technologies. We call it an innovation ecosystem here internally. We have different tools for this job to address those new and innovative markets. We can use either our R&D, our accelerator, our VC fund, and of course, through the standard means, so by mergers and acquisitions.
That will be all from my side. Now we'll give the leading voice to Michał Perlik, which will take you through the financial condition.
Thank you, Marek. Good afternoon, everyone. The new ambitious strategy and the new ambitious targets required a strong financial foundation. Therefore, we have decided to improve our financial framework and adjust it to the needs of the new combined group, while keeping at the same time the best, the most solid elements of the financial framework presented to you in the previous strategy three years ago. We are still operating based on the pillars. Instead of three, now we have four pillars, with the strategic resilience as an additional one. The three remaining pillars are exactly the same that we were presenting previously. Namely, this is efficient investments, sustainable and balanced financing, and a strong, stable balance sheet.
I will try to give you more light on all of them on the forthcoming slide. The key outcome of this slide and the pillars that are presented here is that we strongly believe that the new strategy in combination with the robust financial framework will enable us to further increase the value of the group to shareholders, which will be reflected in double digits mostly through the whole lifetime of this strategy and a solid, updated, more ambitious, and which will be with more attractive dividend policy, with PLN 4 as a baseline and a growing trajectory. Now we can move to slide number 46. Let's keep slide 45 for a second. We will come back to this shortly.
As my colleagues has already presented, we are planning to significantly increase and significantly diversify our assets portfolio over the next eight years. We will definitely focus on the most efficient investment, mainly in the energy transition area, and we will be definitely much more demanding in terms of expected IRRs as regards to the projects which are related to our traditional businesses. We'll spend in total for the investments around PLN 320 billion till 2030. As you can see, over 30% of this amount will be dedicated to finance green projects, transition projects. Thanks to this, and now we can come back to slide number 45, we expect to generate over PLN 400 billion of EBITDA during the whole period, 2023, 2030.
As we are presenting here, we expect that this result will be well-balanced through our major business segments or business areas, and will enable us to deliver double digits ROCE not only in the perspective on the end of this strategy, but through the whole life cycle of the strategy. Now we can move to slide number 47. As I mentioned at the beginning, well-balanced and sustainable financing will be one of the key pillars of our strategy. Our goal is to adjust our investment plans and investment activity in the particular years through to, through the lifetime of this strategy to the current capacity and current possibilities of funding possibilities of the group. We will definitely cover substantial part of our investment from our current operating cash flow.
We will obviously use also, we'll actively use debt. However, we still confirm that we want to be very robust, we want to be very careful in terms of managing our debt. We keep our target on the net debt EBITDA covenant capped at 2x, maximum 2.5x , exactly as it was presented in the previous strategy. We want to further extend our sources of financing, especially on the bond market. Our intention is to be a frequent, regular issuer of the bond, both on the local and global market. We have a strong goal or aim to further increase green and sustainable financing in our portfolio. As you can see, we estimate that our additional debt capacity is or will be around PLN 100 billion, 125 billion .
As you know, at the current, our leverage is close to zero. We are also open, and this is follow up from the or this continuation from the previous strategy, we are also open for the alternative financing sources. We continue to organize project finance for our selected projects, mainly in energy and FCAN segments. We are open for EU funding for innovative projects and energy transition projects. We are also open for cooperation with external partners in implementation and co-funding of selected projects like we are doing on offshore and SMR in our SMR activity. We keep hybrid bonds as a backup option for us. Of course, the priority for the company is to maintain a strong credit rating.
I will just recall that this is one of the synergies which has been reached already, one of the synergies related to merger with Lotos and PGNiG. We have been upgraded by two notches, both by Fitch and Moody's, shortly after merger with both companies. We can move on to the last slide in this section, which is dedicated to dividend policy. We expect to double our EBITDA till 2030, which means that we would like to also improve the value generation for the shareholders and improve the dividend policy. The new dividend policy will be based on the free cash flow generated by the company. Our goal is to distribute 40% of free cash flow generated by the company in the previous year.
It will be not less than the base dividend, the guaranteed dividend, which is set for PLN 4 per share in 2020, 2022, sorry, and will be gradually increasing by PLN 15 per share annually till 2030. Therefore, the base dividend, the guaranteed dividend will reach PLN 5.20 in 2030, which means almost 50% increase of base dividend over the decade. Following the very solid results we reached last year, the management board has released an initial recommendation of the dividend for 2022 at the level of PLN 5.50 per share. The final recommendation of the dividend will be confirmed shortly after approval of the audited financial, full year financial result. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Michał. Now we can quickly jump into Q&A session. If you would like to ask the question, please remember to unmute microphones. The floor is yours. We are open for your questions.
Hello. Łukasz Kopeć. Ask a few questions?
Go ahead.
The first question is on the refining segment. The target EBITDA for 2030 is PLN 8 billion. Could you please tell us how much of this EBITDA is attributed to new investments and how much to existing assets? That's for the first question. The second one, why is there so much CapEx planned for the segment? I mean, if you compare the CapEx planned in the refining segment, it's almost similar to the upstream segment. It's similar to the energy segment, about PLN 8 billion. I mean, it's a segment which should be almost considered as the, I don't know, the cash cow segment. Here you invest almost as much CapEx as much you expect EBITDA. That's the first two questions, please.
For those questions, I will start with the second one. Regarding CapEx and refining, we expected that question. This is the question about split of our model and of our assumptions in the model. As you can see on slide number 31. Tomek, please bring that one. We included into refining segment both type of investments. As next to CapEx in traditional refining, there is a CapEx for biofuels and for CCS.
so the CapEx for refining by itself, so in refineries, average annual CapEx is about PLN 5 billion, which is both maintenance and development CapEx. It's higher because we have higher scope, so we have one additional refinery, Gdańska refinery. We invest in Gdańska, for example, in new HBO block or... We invest in Mažeikiai.
The refinery is still very capital-intensive when it comes to maintenance.
In terms of life?
Yeah.
In the almost PLN 8 billion in refining.
Almost PLN 2.8 billion are in new business segments. They won't be strictly dedicated to refineries.
Yes. Also we include in the refinery CapEx, the CapEx for the CCS. This CapEx does not is included, it increases the amount of CapEx in this segment.
Mr. Foster.
Can you please tell me how much of EBITDA do you plan to generate from the first of all, from the green capex, yes? PLN 2.8 billion capex annual, yes, and from new investments. Because the PLN 4.8 billion is maintenance plus organic plus new projects, yes?
Yes. From the green investments, we assume in 2030 around PLN 3 billion , yes. When it comes to the CapEx from the new investment in the refinery, it's around PLN 2 billion .
You assume that most of the PLN 5 billion out of the PLN 8 billion is from new investments, yes? More or less.
Could you repeat?
Did I understand correctly? Yes.
Could you repeat, please?
You plan PLN 8 billion, out of this PLN 8 billion, PLN 5 billion is attributed to new investments, the green investments and new investments in the refining segment, yes?
Yes, yes. More or less, yes.
More or less. Okay. Okay. Thank you very much. Last question on retail, if I may. Because, well, this, your target EBITDA for the segment is PLN 7 billion, so it is definitely much higher than the segment is generating currently. You don't seem to plan much CapEx here, and could you please explain how do you plan such EBITDA growth?
First of all, we assume in the long run that the retail gas sales, the margin on this market, as well as other bundled projects will increase the margin, where we must bear in mind that part of this EBITDA is also generated from the EV, so the electromobility. The main driver are the increased EBITDA when compared to the 22 from the stabilization in the retail segment.
Maybe one general comment here. We have modeled retail segment jointly as retail of fuel, electricity and gas. Here, as Lucas said, gas margins plays level.
But could you explain what gas margins? I mean, I've seen in the comment in the targets that you plan to sell natural gas and electric energy, yes? Do you plan to transfer some of the margins from the trading segment to the retail segment, yes? Is that correct?
In the long term, in the strategy horizon, we want to integrate, we want to integrate retail business in one segment. Here we have modeled revenues from retail sales.
Okay. One last question about retail. Out of the PLN 7 billion you target, yes, how much is attributed to, well, new business model EBITDA? I mean, because the retail segment on its own is now it's generating PLN 3 billion-PLN 4 billion, yes? How much of the PLN 7 billion is attributed to, I don't know, electric energy, gas trading to electric vehicles? Can you give a split of the PLN 7 billion?
Maybe we can talk about the total EBITDA. It will be easier to talk in these terms. The combined sales in the in the from the stations and the shops is around PLN 4.4 billion. When it comes to the electricity and gas, it's something around PLN 1.7 billion. Electromobility is PLN 1.5 billion, and others are something like PLN 200 million in 2030.
Okay. PLN 1.7 billion from gas and electric energy trading, yes?
Yes, yes.
This is the EBITDA which we currently see in the trading segment, but you plan to kind of change your business model, yes?
Presentation of different positions, margins when we present data from the 2020 to in the 2030, because we assume that these segments will be based on the market-based conditions.
Okay. Thank you very much. It was very, very helpful.
Hi, this is Tomasz Sójka.
Sorry, Tomasz. You go ahead. It's Piotr, but you go ahead.
Thanks. Tomasz Sójka, Santander. The first question is on the CapEx. If you could give us a guidance on the trajectory of this guidance during this eight-year period. Is it going to be equally split each year PLN 40 billion, or it's gonna be front-loaded and loaded? How do you see it?
Okay. Konrad Włodarczyk speaking. As we clearly said in the strategy, we're gonna spend PLN 320 billion . Peak of the CapEx will be till 2025. The CapEx will reach even up to PLN 50 billion , then decrease to the level of PLN 40 billion in years 2026-2029, ending at PLN 25 billion at the end of strategic period, so in 2030.
Okay, thank you. The other question is on the profitability which you assume in the energy segment, both in conventional energy and in new energy. Can you give us some color on how you approach the return on investment in those areas? I see that you want to increase in conventional energy, EBITDA 3x based on just, well, less than doubling capacity. In new energy, the growth is, well, huge. how do you reconcile this growth with really low return on which complain renewable players in Europe?
In terms of.
Maybe I will help. Okay, Karol?
Okay.
Okay. First of all, when we speak about the EBITDA in conventional and networks, we assume that, first of all, in the grid sector, we expect the increase in the return on regulatory asset base due to the increased CapEx spending. This is one driver of the increase. The second, we assume in the long term that this new CCGT plant will contribute to our EBITDA significantly. Because the question was about the conventional power. Yes? Yes?
That's more or less. Yes.
Yes?
Conventional, yes.
Yes. We assume that when we take into account the merit order in the long run, the decrease in the gas prices and increase in the CO2 emission costs will drive gas plants which we will build positive. As well as those we build, as well as those we have in our portfolio currently. When it comes to the question concerning the renewable energy sector and our expected return, IRR, so we as far as understood, you see is it's a challenge that other competitors might expect lower returns? Yes?
Current regulatory assumptions made us think that the projects in renewable energy will contribute around 9 IRRs-10 IRRs, so it's above our WACC. We think that they will be profitable.
Okay. Thank you. The last question from me, if you could say a few words about the macro assumption which you make for this period when it comes to crude oil price, natural gas price, and maybe refining margin, petchem margin.
You can see the slide in the appendix, which summarizes the macroeconomic assumptions of our modeling. We have stated the period for two parts, the first four years and the second four years. In refining, we see a drop of margins from high levels in the first period. Petrochemical still solid, good margin, again on the level about $90 per barrel. High electricity prices and decline of gas prices. Please bear in mind that all numbers that we present and that we use in the presentations are the 2023 period numbers.
We have excluded inflation, in this presentation.
Thank you.
Hi.
Hello.
Sorry, go ahead.
Yeah, please go ahead.
One of you has to mute the microphone, so...
Maybe I will go ahead. It's Piotr Janczewski from Citi. Let me ask a couple of questions. Firstly, I compared your current strategy with the one from two years ago, clearly you assume a much higher uplift on the renewable generation. Can you please explain to me what is the backup of a PLN 15 billion annual EBITDA contribution of the renewables that you assume? What type of a pipeline do you currently have, or it's all coming from inorganic acquisitions? If you think you're going to spend, as per slide 45, roughly PLN 50 billion-60 billion a year, how you can get on the back of this type of a CapEx, PLN 15 billion contribution? That seems to be like a 4x multiple.
I mean, can you square these numbers together for me, how the PLN 60 billion in renewables can provide PLN 15 billion of EBITDA, and what's the backup on the numbers? That's the first question.
Okay, I can answer about this number and the approach towards our aspirations. We haven't split the 9 GW into offshore, onshore, and photovoltaic, but that was done on purpose. We are currently in the situation where we are unsure about developments of the onshore projects and we are unsure on the exact mix of our portfolio. Which we assume is the solid mix of offshore, onshore and photovoltaics in Poland and outside Poland.
Of course, this is not only development will be met partially by acquisitions. This is the target for the company that we should that we set ourselves to meet in eight years. In terms of breakdown of the EBITDA, can we see?
Yeah. Okay. When it comes to this, renewable energy is 50, and when it comes to the biomethane, it's around 6.6, and hydrogen is 1.5 in 2030.
No, I was just trying...
In 2023.
I'm sorry. I was just trying to get, kind of a CapEx behind the PLN 15 billion contribution. This CapEx is not just a PLN 60 billion, which you show on slide 45. This seems impossible to gather PLN 15 billion EBITDA out of PLN 60 billion CapEx in renewable world. I mean, the whole Polish utility industry is making PLN 20 billion a year, and to build it costs way more than PLN 60 billion.
Maybe one more general comment. We have included here in the new energy CapEx, renewables, biogas, and hydrogen. Do you ask us about the split for CapEx and EBITDA for each of those business lines?
No, no. No, no, no. I was just trying to kind of understand the PLN 15 billion contribution from the renewables segment. What is the CapEx you're going to spend?
József, it is hard to hear your question. There is something with your connection. Are you still online?
Yes, I'm here. I'm here. Can you hear me? Hello?
Yes, yes, we hear you, but there was some interference.
I was trying to understand what is the CapEx that you need to spend to get a 15 big contribution from the renewable segment. You show on slide 37, a PLN 15 billion in 2030, and I wanted to understand how much money you have to spend in terms of CapEx inorganically or organically to get to this figure. When I go to slide 45, I have PLN 50 billion-PLN 60 billion in value in the renewables. I was just trying to understand if you assume a 4x multiple on the CapEx or there is a different split of CapEx into these elements that give me this PLN 15 billion EBITDA.
Matias.
I'm just trying to understand how ambitious are your assumptions, because I've been looking on the utility industry for some time, It looks to me that for $60 billion is a lot, 12% multiple, maybe 19% if they are lucky, and you can get maybe $6 billion-$7 billion for this company, not $15. I was just trying to understand what is different that you can do versus the industry that brings you to that point. We can take it offline. I mean, I don't want to take too much time of everybody. I have one more follow-up.
Yes, please. Yes, please. We will double-check, yes.
Sure, sure.
We'll come back to you.
I have a question to slide 47. You show PLN 400 billion EBITDA cumulative, and you show dividend taxes, PLN 100 billion . If I take your dividend policy now, as you announce, you're going to pay PLN 40 billion dividend, so PLN 60 billio of taxes. I just wanted to understand, what is the tax rate do you assume on the PLN 400 billion EBITDA? Is it just PLN 60 billion or there should be more? I thought your tax rate, given a lot of the upstream contribution is in Norway, is going to be significantly higher than the nominal tax rate that you have in Poland, and you will pay just the taxes of PLN 100 billion , not PLN 60 billion . What is that I calculated wrong on this chart?
In terms of EBITDA, what we are presenting here is the effective EBITDA as regards to the Norway assets, meaning that we deduct local taxes or the local taxes have been already deducted from this number. What you can see here in the taxes are only the taxes on the, let's say, local Polish level.
How much of these Norway taxes will you pay in this write-down?
We want exactly to share the numbers and the, the split. The, the tax rate is around 80% if in Norway.
Okay.
Depends on the year, on the EBITDA generated, but the effective tax rate is 78%.
Yes. Maybe last follow-up. How come a 50% increase in the gas production can lead to a 4x multiple the EBITDA figure, given the normalization of pricing environment? That's on slide of the upstream. That's on slide 29. You show a 50% in the production and a 4x multiple of EBITDA. I assume this is the same EBITDA to say, ex taxes. In other words, your reported EBITDA quite like goes 8x higher or something.
Once again, repeat, because you asked why the level of EBITDA and effective EBITDA is PLN 16 billion. Yes?
No. Why you have a 50% increase in upstream production volume, and then you multiply your EBITDA by 4x in upstream segment? What is that? Is it synergies? Is it, you know, you find different resources or you lower your CapEx or? I don't know, because I thought 50% increase in production would lead typically to a 50% higher EBITDA.
Um-
Okay, in 2022 data you have, first of all.
Gas write-down.
Yes
...of the upstream activities of the gas and domestic Polish production.
Yes. You have included also, trading segment of Exxon Mobil AG. That's why.
Okay. I understand.
We assume that we will have normalization of prices going forward until 2030, which the market will work normally, and it should stabilize the trading results. Of course, it will lead to decrease the revenues and the EBITDA from production segment. On the other hand, we will have more stable and predictable conditions for gas trading segment. That's basically...
The point is you also increase the production of the other hydrocarbons like oil. Yes. To some extent.
Our priority is to increase gas production. Of course, it will depend on the deposit that we either discover or buy. We'll have the... We prefer gas, but of course, some projects will deliver also crude oil and NGL.
Yes.
Understand.
Can be stated that we assume that the tax shield might be more effective if we spend more CapEx in Norway and that will increase the effective EBITDA comparing to the numbers presented.
Okay. Understand. Thank you very much for the answers.
Thank you, Piotr.
This is Abdessalam from Societe Generale. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
All right. I have a follow-up question on the offshore wind, then a question on biofuel. On the offshore wind, could you, is there a possibility to provide us with some midterm, medium-term targets regarding your 9 GW capacity, installed capacity? Also, if you can provide also some colors regarding the location or the potential partners to extend your capacity. This is the first question on offshore wind. The second question on biofuel, I mean, you mentioned 3 MTPA. Could you provide us a split between FAME and HVO? Also, are you, I mean, what makes you so sure that you can secure enough of these feedstocks to guarantee the targeted production?
This is Jarosław Dybowski speaking. We applied for 11 new locations. You know, we have 1 project under development, which is called Baltic Power, and there is about 1,200 MW. We expect to commission this project in January 2026. So far, there is no any risk of any delay. We applied for 11 new locations. Of course, we knew that it's impossible to get all of them. So far, one was canceled already, three of them was already awarded to some other companies. We expect to get, I would say, few of them. It's very difficult to say, to give you the exact number, but few of them, that's for sure. This is on the Baltic shore.
What we expect is to, or what we want to do is also to participate in the auction, which will be this year organized in Lithuania. Further on, we want to expand also to other Baltic countries like Latvia and Estonia. That's why you have, you know, this total number 9 GW. Apart from that, we want to invest in the onshore winds and photovoltaic. It's very difficult to give you the general split. There is simply a number of the scenarios will drive us to this 9 GW number. Regarding biogas, we aim to achieve both biomethane and biogas, as you asked for, we don't provide the split for your sum.
Thank you. One last question. I mean, how do you intend to decrease coal-fired power and heat generation? I mean, is it by shutting down capacity or sales to a public entity is concerned? If the latter is considered as an option, can you provide us with some color? That would be all for me. Thank you.
The biggest coal-fired power plant, which is owned by our group, is Ostroleka coal-fired power plant. It's about 700 MW. Even today, it's not fully under operation. It's a quite old power plant. Until 2025, it shall be shut down. Maybe as you know, there is a governmental plan to create a company called NABE. This company will take over all the coal-fired power plants from the older energy, from old Polish energy groups, including, of course, Orlen. We expect that probably this year, this power plant, Ostrołęka, will be sold to NABE.
Apart from Ostrołęka, we have a number of CHPs, no more coal-fired base load power plant, but number of CHPs, a very small in the northern part of Poland and some big CHPs acquired together with Termika, so in the group called Termika. We have a plan to replace those coal-fired CHPs by gas units. The biggest one, you know, there will be CCGTs. In the smaller cities, depends on the solutions, but mainly we'll use the gas engines, and this is included in the strategy.
Thank you.
Hi, Michał Kozak again. I have a couple of questions. The first one, could you give us more details on gas trading segment with PLN 10 billion-PLN 20 billion EBITDA in 2030? This forecast seems to be conservative, especially when we look at current year results, thanks to LNG contracts.
Okay. Stanisław Piekarski here. Our expectation is that, well, we'll have a significant portfolio of LNG contracts indexed to Henry Hub, and we expect it in the longer term that Henry Hub will be a major benchmark that will set the a long-term price for European markets. In the normal market scenarios in, we expect that these contracts will generate. Well, at least will be in the money, and it gives us a significant chance to profit from any market volatility and price increases on European market, such as we expect, such as we experience now. Basically, well, this is, let's say, base case scenario.
We also expect that we'll be able to optimize the delivery of this volume to other location and profit from this optimization, instead source the gas from European market, TTF, THE or other locations or spot LNG.
Thank you. You presented refining margins assumptions at the end of the presentation. Does it include differential and at which level?
No. We have modeled our crude supplies based on Brent.
You assume zero differential? Sorry, I didn't understand.
Yes, we assume 0 differential.
Okay. Okay. Going back to green projects CapEx, could you break down PLN 70 billion, split it into projects, into areas in new energy, renewable segments?
Okay. In rough numbers. In rough, very rough numbers, because we don't want to. Okay. When you're talking about seven, PLN 70 billion here, about PLN 50 billion is on, PLN 15 billionmore is on renewables. PLN 10 billion-PLN 15 billion is on biogas, and about PLN 5 billion is on hydrogen. Please bear in mind that this is just modeling, and this part of the model was the hardest of us, for us because of the uncertainties of the split of the energy mix. In case we will get more offshore, then of course will be much more higher. The CapEx, the CapEx numbers may be a bit higher.
In case there will be more photovoltaic in the portfolio, we assume that the unit cost for photovoltaic will drop in this period, as it dropped in the past and as it maybe not during last two years because they were quite unusual. We assume the decrease of unit cost here. Please bear in mind that while building, we have a model, of course, but this is only the model. The reality, as we experience, is bringing us surprises every day.
Okay. Within offshore projects, you forecast only 1.2 GW, yes? Maybe PLN 8 billion at your share in JV.
We haven't said that. We said that we are currently developing 1.2 GW, projects. We haven't stated that the numbers, the 9 GW into particular portfolio.
My last question on PLN 16 billion to be spent on in conventional power and networks segment. Could you split it, for example, for SMR until 2030? Maybe the contribution of this SMR.
CapEx, of course.
Okay. When you ask about the PLN 50 billion in conversional, those are projects in CCGTs. Those are this is maintenance CapEx. In terms of SMR, we assume only 1 SMR, 1 unit before 2030. We are still building in JV in JV with Synthos within the Synthos Green Orlen Synthos OFE Orlen Synthos Green Energy. These are just few billion PLN.
Thank you.
Yes. Hello. Oleg Galbur is here from Raiffeisen. I hope you can hear me well.
Yes. Go ahead.
Yes. I have two questions. The first one, could you please elaborate a little bit on your targeted synergies of PLN 10 billion? Namely explain a bit more what exactly are those assumptions based on, and how quickly do you expect those synergies to materialize? The second question is a bit of feedback. Of course, we welcome the presented longer-term picture and view on the expected development in terms of EBITDA and CapEx, 2030 targets are helpful to understand what you aim in a longer run. However, for us it would also be very useful and important to have some intermediary tax targets.
Maybe not now, but, in the near future, please consider sharing also, some midterm targets in order to understand how quickly and how realistic are those longer-term targets, reachable. At this point in time, maybe if you could at least share a view with respect to what level of EBITDA do you expect according to your modeling for 2025 or 2026. Thank you.
Okay. Konrad Włodarczyk speaking. In terms of synergies, we said in a strategy that we expect synergies at the level of PLN 10 billion . You have to wait for the details. We're gonna release the information in the second quarter, the list of the synergies with the value. In terms of providing some forecast targets, we rather do not this part of the strategic target as we provided right now. We never even target you on a EBITDA level for the current year, not mentioning, let's say, coming years.
At least I tried. Thank you.
Welcome.
Okay. Any other questions?
Hi, it's Anna Kishmariya from UBS. Can you hear me?
Yes.
I have a quick follow-up on biofuels, the question we had before. Probably I missed that, but can you please repeat regarding your sourcing for the feedstock? Like, how is it developing by when you expect to have the full view of how you will be able to source all the feedstock for the plant capacity? Thank you.
Yeah. Biofuels are important for us from the point of view of supplying or meeting the net zero targets in the future. As we said, we currently invest in 1 HVO unit in Płock. In our strategy in increased targets and we focus both on HVO and bioethanol second generation. That should be, especially HVO should be. Yes. We need more HVO in order to meet the net zero targets. That should give you direction or of type of feedstock we would need.
Understood. Thank you.
Hi, this is Ildar Khaziev from HSBC. Just a technical question from me, please. If you were to use 2022 as a base year, I mean, what would have been the group EBITDA if you owned PGNiG and LOTOS from the beginning of 2022? Thank you.
We do not provide these numbers. Therefore, in this strategy, the starting point was 2021. Yes. It's an aggregated level of ex Orlen, ex PGNiG, and ex Lotos numbers.
Understood. Thank you.
It's Tamás Pletser from Erste. I just got one question. You mentioned earlier that you are interested in Schwedt Refinery acquisition, and I saw that you didn't include an increase in your refining capacity. How would your strategy change if Schwedt Refinery would come to the picture? Would you increase your CapEx from this PLN 320 billion, or should this refinery fit into this CapEx? Thank you.
Yeah, regarding. As we show here or as we've given, we do not plan additional investment in refining capacities. We haven't commented on Schwedt, I think. We haven't declared any interest in those refinery assets. I would treat it just as a speculation and it's not a plan that is included in the strategy.
Okay.
Okay. If there are no more questions, thank you very much for participating in the call. Take care and goodbye. Have a nice evening. Bye.
Bye-bye.
Thank you.