Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA (WSE:PZU)
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May 6, 2026, 5:04 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 25, 2023

Speaker 2

This is a very important quarter, that's because it's the first time when we're showing our results according to the new standard that is binding for all insurance companies from this year, including a transformation for the parallel periods from the previous year. It's the first time when we are presenting the results in such a way. The preparation of the market for the implementation of the new standard took a lot of time, which means that it was not trivial. I can assume that this presentation may not be obvious for some of you. I will try to build the dynamics of this presentation in a different way than I did before.

I will try to go quickly through the obvious things, which you can easily read on or are easy to understand, or the ones that are related to our situation on the market, the way we've built our scale, our portfolio. They have not changed despite the change of the standard, so we are building our relations with the customers in the same way, but their valuation in the financial report has changed, and that's what I want to focus on. Let's start the first quarter with good results when it comes to sales and the translation of our activities into net profits. Net profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent company. What's important is that when we talk about the growth of the scale in insurance activities, so this is our main activity.

It's not a one-off event, it's not the effect of introducing the standard. This is a natural growth of scale, and we hope that in subsequent quarters we'll be able to monetize it. We are glad that we have maintained high profitability, both when it comes to the investment portfolio and the profitability in life insurance. In terms of the situation on the market, we are very proud of our results. High interest rates of the investment products and other elements, they have contributed to the result of this quarter, and they have translated into a growth over 30% year-over-year, the value for 2022 measured according to the new standard. They have translated into a high equity growth.

We have also recalibrated our strategy, so we've said why we want to start using a bit slightly different measure than the one before when it comes to one's own equity. Thanks to this new index, it eliminates certain fluctuations in our interest rates and different factors. Where we are getting other revenues, which come from a revaluation of technical liabilities on a current rate. It's a very good and high opening. As to the areas of growth, we are growing in every area, both when it comes to non-life insurance. In motor insurance, here the main driver of growth are MOD insurance, especially in the eighth and ninth group. In TPL, general TPL insurance and assistance. In the segment of Baltic countries, so abroad, we have a dynamic of over 20%, mostly in non-life insurance, motor insurance.

Here we are in a very important stage of the cycle. This is the cause of these large changes in year-to-year when it comes to the Gross Written Premium. As for life insurance, the main growth took place in a group and individual continued insurance. After the pandemic, we came back to the channel of 2.5% growth in this segment. On the other hand, we have high growth when it comes to the sales of life and endowment insurance product. It's been introduced at the end of last year to react to the demands and expectations of customers in light of high interest rates. It's an offer that can be an alternative to deposit bank products. That's all when it comes to investment products. We are using the new standard.

We should not be using the written premium, but other indices. As we've promised, this year, we'll be communicating with you through two investments, the investment 17 and 4. We would like to move as quickly as possible to the new dimension, because keeping accounting in the two versions is quite a burden. We'd like to convert to the new formula as quickly as possible, so that we can help you understand us anew, because the introduction of the standard will expect that from us. As for the revenue of the insurer in terms of the new standard, just let me remind you that in a non-life insurance, they are quite similar to the equivalent of the gross premium, and the parts of the premium ascribed to acquisition costs is shown separately, and it's adjusted for the provision from active situation.

When it comes to bad loans, we are moving to a different dimension. This is different from the written premium, we should remember about that. We have a small adjustment from the viewpoint of thinking about the non-life insurance market. We have such property products, which are short-lived, and they are valued with a simplified model, the model of Premium Allocation. We can find a lot of analogies with the gained premium. That was in terms of our revenues from insurance. They are an expression not only of what was happening in Q1 of this year and the way our portfolio was shaped through new sales or maintaining the portfolio allocated in previous periods. It's also a consequence of our growth over time in the past 12 months.

Here, we are talking about non-life insurance products with a short term, less than 12 months. As to revenues from insurance on the non-life insurance products, we also have revenues, which are a consequence of high sales dynamics, which took place in the second half of the past year. That happened, especially in the third and fourth quarter. We were growing a bit faster than the market itself, so this translated into the growth that we are observing on the side of non-life insurance. As for the main driver of the growth, just as with the written premium, motor insurance, which is shaped, first of all, by MOD, and in MTPL, we also have growth, but they are mainly counted with the exposure of the portfolio, especially with the price factor.

As I said, this is shaped by the dynamics of MOD when it comes to motor insurance. In non-motor insurance, we have growth, first of all, in non-life insurance, in property insurance, so eighth and ninth group, general TPL and assistance. We see the growth, especially on the side of corporate investment, especially with the situation of the second half of last year, so the growth has been significantly higher. As for life insurance, we'll be repeating this many times, but there may be a lot of questions regarding this sphere. When it comes to life insurance, let me just say that we are using the general model to recognize them. We are using the fluctuating payment.

That means that we are looking at the sum of our flow over time, and we are trying to match them as best as possible.

T o the way that the flows will be carried out in different periods. One of the main components you'll see in life insurance will be claims, technical costs, which are made up of acquisition costs, administrative costs. If they are a good match to the experiences of the given period, then if you have the revenues, besides costs, that is shaping our revenue. This depends on how the margin from insurance is being revealed, the so-called CSM. This will be the main source of our outcome when it comes to non-life insurance in the new standard.

As you can see here in the graphic below, it's the contractual margin that grew from PLN 290 million to PLN 340 million , the correction, links to non-financial risk, were the main factors that shaped our solvency on the life insurance products. The decline in the absolute value by 4% compared to the value from 2022. This is shaped by the correction of our expectations regarding the death rate, particularly the death rate, while regarding the end of COVID and the pattern of mortality or death rate that we had seen in previous periods in 2019, which was not a burden. It doesn't include additional factors of the pandemic, of COVID-19. Well, sad results and sales and really high profits are visible here in this slide.

As I mentioned, in terms of the profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent company, we may say it is composed of the following components: PLN 854 million of insurance service result, and this is the result on insurance from the previous year. It's important because the distribution of services and benefits was really special in the last 12 months. We've mentioned that several times already, and I will mention it today still, that there are some events that life space, such as, well, high death rate in the first quarter and entirely different experiences in the first quarter of this year. They are partially offset by the situation around the health-related products.

On the health-related products, those experience and elements will be discussed further today. We can see there that the health debt is taking part, is being materialized. It is a challenge for our company and for other players in this segment as well. We may say that life insurance, particularly this year on the life insurance part, saw the increase in rentability, increase of margins. Here you can see the point with the asterisk. The standard changed not only the valuation prices, but also the way we group and present our business segments. Previously, as you can remember, on the life insurance part, we spoke about group and individual segments. Both of those segments contained both the protection and investment. In the new standard, this is separated.

As a result of that, and we can see that in the presentation, we have a new segment, a separate one, from the group and from the individual insurance. The contracts that have this investment quality, they were transferred to that third group. So please remember, when we compare the group insurance segment from before the change and after, it's not comparable. In terms of other factors, that's still the same. We have a mass and corporate segment separately, and we are glad to be able to still maintain relatively high margins. A relatively low as for the non-life insurance, that is mixed ratio, that is at the level of 86%. Our activity is profitable, very profitable. It is being built obviously from the expanding portfolio on non-communication insurance.

The motor insurance is maintaining the level, non-motor insurance is a little decline year-over-year. In this quarter, we also show a really dynamic growth in the investment portfolio. It's by 33%. Taking into account what we see in the market currently, what strategies we carry out, how well they are adapted to the changeability of the market, and on the other hand, to the nature of our activity, which is the insurance activity, and the fact that we need to have the technical and insurance provisions. We need to be able to maintain liquidity and low volatility, particularly if we were to be in a situation when those provisions are to be paid out to the clients. This is much safer way of handling things, and the excess of risk is being managed like that.

The risk that is above the strategy is well managed. We grow, and when we take into account this particular structure, an increase in the debt of strategies in the money market, in the real estate market, they're high growths, and that allows us to show 30% of the increase, despite the fact that share-related instruments and equity ones, they grow less significantly. The profitability of the banks grow. In the first quarter, it has been relatively low, but let me remind you that in the second and third quarter of the previous year, that growth started. That's why we expect it to still contribute to the result, and we see high dynamics there. The sum of those elements enables us to report very high results today. All of that is in the context of high security of operations.

This is measured by the Solvency II ratio. It's much higher, significantly higher than compared to the group, comparable groups in Europe. That's why we can pay the dividends in the higher brackets that the regulators have foreseen. PLN 2.40 per share was proposed by the Management Board and approved by the Supervisory Board, and that translates into 6% dividend rate. We have, at the same time, very high commitments to corporate social responsibility, but I would prefer to discuss rather the technical aspects. Still, we continue to remember about our role in the market, and it is not a purely business activity-based. What we have is the health prevention or sickness prevention, taking care of health, and I'm sure that our clients will benefit from our services when they're in good shape.

At the same time, we implement the digital dimension of the PZU Group. The number of accounts is growing, and it allows us to enable our clients to interact with the insurer the way they prefer to. That was the summary. We'd like to say now is to update what happened in the first quarter this year and the fourth quarter last year, and to make the reference to the market, because this has been very important to the PZU. We are not an entity with a large share of the activity outside of Poland, like in terms of geography. It is more impactful on our financial standing, what the situation is like in Poland. Let me remind you, our comparison is to the last data published by the regulator. That is for the fourth quarter of 2022.

The data for the first quarter this year, I hope, will be soon published. We will be able to give you more information in the next meetings. The fourth quarter last year was a relatively good one in terms of growth of the market itself. That's the first quarter continued along that trend. Let's start with non-life insurance market in Poland. High dynamics in quarter four in non-motor insurance. As I've mentioned, a high growth in non-motor life insurance, over 24% year-over-year, relatively smaller when general TPL and MOD was the driver of the increase in that segment. The motor segment has been difficult. Our increase by 5% is relatively good, particularly the collected commission premiums from the MOD. That was really well. The scale is growing.

The fourth quarter, in terms of prices, was in the side the trend. Slight correction as compared to the previous quarters, made the growth of a little less dynamic nature. With this market, the share of PZU grew. We grew faster than the whole market, and it enabled us to close the fourth quarter at the level of 33.4% in terms of whole business operations. Let me clarify, active situation, 33.7%. This is a particular time when we are able to experience high growth in sales. In this difficult market of motor insurance, particularly TPL, as you can see, the fourth quarter differed from the third one, and it enabled insurers to show and to go back to the minimum positive results in solvency.

Those positive results were realized, we might say, thanks to the changes in the frequency of claims that we recognized in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter, year-over-year, the frequency of claims went down by 7%, it was what translated in the slight positive result in solvency in the fourth quarter. The first quarter of this year, the increase as compared to the previous quarter, year-over-year, it's still a slight correction.

Considering claim inflation, it's quite a big challenge for the whole market. Unfortunately, we cannot show you yet how it translates into profitability and the change of average prices. The market is really accelerating. On such a market, the PZU Group, based on some preliminary estimates published by PIU, we have higher sales results, +14.8%. We hope that the data of KNF, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, will confirm that. We hope that this will translate into the further strengthening of investment measured by written premiums. As in the previous dimensions, the main drivers of growth were mainly motor insurance, especially MOD, and in non-communication insurance, mainly non-life insurance.

We are very satisfied that with a small adjustment in the first quarter, the share, the ratio number of MOD to TPL on the market in Poland, especially in light of macro indices, this is a very positive information, and it's a very good trend that's been observed practically from the end of 2018. We are going back to the fourth quarter. It was influenced by negative dynamics in investment insurance. with the components of equity funds. When it comes to a regular premium, which is most of the market, 86%, as well as the periodic premium, that was an element which had a negative impact on the dynamics. In the regular premium, there was an adjustment of around 7% and around 70% when it comes to a one-off premium.

When it comes to premium, periodical premiums, in category one and five, it was 5%, and in additions, almost 7% when it comes to riders. We see how the basis is built when it comes to a one-time premium. There was, the dynamics amounted to around zero. It was quite a stable level and a increasing level when it comes to the share on the market of the regular premium. It was almost 40% with a growing dynamics and the share when it comes to the one-time premium. As for sales, we are growing in the channel of 2.5%. This growth is carried out both in terms of the basis and riders. Riders, especially in health agreements. We have additional riders and, satiation of the portfolio of the already existing ones.

This contributed to the growth of this segment when it comes to PZU. As for individual insurance, there is a growth in life and endowment with the guaranteed amounts, which are distributed mainly through the bank channel, but first, for a short time, they have been available also in a different, two different channels. These are products such as Bezpieczny Zysk, Pewny Profit, Bezpieczne Jutro. Here you can determine the profitability in the perspective of two or three years. It's quite an interesting product. If you haven't heard about them, I encourage you to take a look on them, at them. Also, decreasing premiums from bank protection products, which is related to the sales of basic products such as loans, et cetera, as well as complementary products, which are mainly a collateral of the payment.

Slowdown in sales of individual investment banking products in own channels. This was shaping our sales, measured by the written premium. In the health sector, we were consistently carrying out the strategy, both when it comes to revenues in both dimensions, so subscriptions of insurance and medical facilities. It's very good news because this is not revenue based on the same or decreasing base, adjusted in terms of price, and we know that medical inflation has been growing quite strongly. We are glad to see a growing number of agreements at the end of the period. It has grown by 6.6%. So this shows that we are able to continually build the portfolio and relationships with clients. We are opening new facilities.

We are trying to expand the covering, so that since this is a difficult market with growing costs, we want to make sure we are able to attract customers and clients to our own facilities. Assets under management. Here we've seen quite big growth when it comes to the valuation of assets and new sales. This year, contrary to the previous year, we have quite a stable inflow on the market, this allowed us to grow in terms of net sales, PLN 476 million. We are growing in terms of assets in ECS. We have a stable share in them, which is measured by the level of managed assets, it's about 21%. When it comes to bancassurance and assurbanking, we've already spoken about this. What's important is that despite of the.

difficult situation in this segment, we've been able to get a growing value measured by the written premium. In the channels of cooperation with banks within the group, there's a growth of 30% year by year, almost 20% in terms of change year- to- year, of the premium allocated to the whole bancassurance channel. I won't talk about the product offer, but I encourage you to familiarize yourself with it. especially when it comes to their combination with the one-time premium, and also for agreements for clients of individual continuation. We are moving to the financial results within the new standard, the new reporting standards. I'm having some technical issues. I guess it's a suggestion for me that I should speed up. Maybe it's, you know, to touch it or something. Maybe I'm boring you.

I'll try to go faster. Okay, it's working now. Thank you very much. Let's move to the financial results. Gross Insurance Revenue, we've already discussed that. We have a growth of almost 7% year-to-year. We are growing on the side of corporate insurance. Corporate insurance, especially in high-risk areas, are very strongly reinsured. There is a growth of the ratio of the premium to reinsurance. Also, when it comes to Gross Insurance Revenue, this is valued through the simplified model of the allocation of the premium, so its level is influenced to a large extent, what we've seen in the second half of the previous year. Very high, stable growth in corporate insurance and in reinsured products. They translate into the current results. Revenue, Net Insurance Revenue at the level of 5%. How about the cost side?

We have a fairly stable development of the portfolio of claims and benefits. This translates into high profitability, both in life and non-life insurance. How is it divided quarter to quarter? First of all, we see a lower mortality rate, so lower benefits when it comes to life insurance clients. As I said before, this is offset with a higher claim in outpatient and medical insurance. That was life insurance. In the non-life insurance, the claims in a non-motor insurance is has been improving year-to-year. Let me remind you that last year in this period, we were experiencing some mass events, also weather events, and that led to low results of the segment, but they were non-representative.

Right now, we are going back to a normal trend and a mixed index in this segment on a level of 80 or even something around that, a bit less than 80. This all happened in the context of the situation shaped by communication products. We have growing benefits, and this is caused by the growing value of insurance, which translates into the price. We talked about that in terms of MOD and TPL. It's a good information. I would like to emphasize that, and it's happening in light of decreasing claim frequencies. Administrative costs have been on the rise. We are being impacted by the market situation, inflation of wages and remunerations. On the cost account of PZU, this is also visible. We are growing when it comes to different costs, also technological costs, so IT costs, for example.

This is related to the implementation of digitization in PZU. We already talked about this, about various initiatives that are aimed at creating some stable, constant competitive advantages. This is important in the context of other dynamics of change, also in terms of the premium and the costs. This element will allow for a stable building of advantages on the market. Thanks to that, both in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter, we've been growing. Thanks to communication insurance, we've been doing it faster than the market itself. As for acquisition costs, we're also seeing growth. They stem from the growing share of more expensive channels, outside channels, mainly the multi-channel. Its share in the sales portfolio is comparable to the channel of exclusive agents or the broker channel, as well as the leasing channel.

They have higher distribution costs than sales as part of our own networks. In the first quarter of this year, we have recognized and composed the loss components in the amount of PLN 347 million, and this covers both non-life insurance as well as life insurance. It's a small growth of PLN 46 million compared to the previous quarter. Let me remind you what this value represents. This is the expectation regarding how, in what way, the life policies and the non-life insurance portfolios can behave over the whole life period, both of the policies or the portfolios. This is different than in the previous standard, because here they do not reflect the way in which the policies, let's say, we think that we won't be able to have some positive margins.

In this standard, they may be offset, compensated by different policies or different portfolios of which are profitable. Here, unfortunately, we have to look for such solutions. In spite of that, we are showing throughout all the segments and all products in this quarter, positive profitability and positive contribution of different elements of given sectors. They all contribute to the consolidated results. This is a very important information, and I'd like us to understand this specific element, this new element, as part of the balance sheet very well on the side of the insurer.

Now, at the end, the result from the insurance services, the result is similar to the previous year. It is a good information, even more, that we take into account the cost inflation. That's a very good information. Despite what happened in the economy in the last 12 months, we're still able to show similar levels of profitability of the insurance business. One more element that is introduced by the new standard. The Insurance Finance Costs, relatively, PLN 461 million this year, a low amount in 2020. Still, I want to pay your attention to the fact that this value, just as the one that lower allocated financial result from the insurance activity, they are related to investment product portfolio that influenced the comparability of the values year-to-year in quite a significant year.

Last year, around this time, what we had was a situation where our clients, in their strategies, had losses on their investment activities. This year, it is a different situation. This is a similar value, but with a different trend. The loss last year was PLN 200 million. This year, we have income at the level of PLN 112 million. On the one hand, it influences the comparability that both in the financial costs for insurance, and it shows the increase of costs at the level of PLN 30 million year-over-year. This amount represents the cost of money and time, and the fact that this standard, contrary to the previous one, to the Standard 4, is in cost of standard and all of the flows are indexed.

That is why when we move along the time, we recognize the cost of money in time throughout the month. On the one hand, it is recognized as the change in the sales, and then it is visible in the results as the financial cost from the insurance activity. What is a good information is that this cost is here with a large excessive investment activity. So we have strong increases, taking out the element of the insurance capital apart. The increase is of 50%, and in a moment, we will sum up the investment portfolio as such.

Now, the operator insurance grows year by year, with PLN 1,139 billion, with the net result attributable to the equity holders of the parent company with PLN 884 million, 30% increase year-over-year, with the contributions for the bank interest to the increased interest rates. That allows, of course, first quarter of this year, at a very high result of PLN 1,155 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year. With the high level of rentability of non-work and non-life insurance sectors and life insurance sectors. I hope this rate of presenting is acceptable. Now, let's sum up what we saw in particular segments. We shall start with the non-life insurance. Let me remind you what I've mentioned before. They're not comparable between the old life and non-life insurance in the previous standard.

On the non-life insurance, this is what we have. In the mass segments, the income grows by 9%, the revenue by 9.2%, mainly due to TPL. That trend is visible also in other products, and this portfolio has been gradually built in the last 12 months with good dynamics of those products, particularly in the second half of the previous year. What we can also see is the increase in cost of the premium for the acquisition costs due to some relatively more expensive model distribution based on channel three. Insurance service expenses, we have higher growth than in the insurance revenue, both by the claims sector. There's an increase in a claims ratio this year, plus administrative basic costs, and acquisition costs went up also in the multi-channel and brokers channel.

Apart from that, the component of the loss was recognized more than the previous year, PLN 95 million, but without a significant impact on the profitability of the whole segment and non-life insurance as such. That is why the end result is nearly half a billion. There was full half billion last year. Decrease is three points, and that translates into rentability of the whole segment at the level of 86.9 percentage point in the mixed indicator. The increase of the indicator, 92.1%. Relatively important increase, still at high rentability level for the non-life insurance products. Mix in index 92% with rentability of 20% of non-life insurance products. In motor insurance, there's different dynamics on particular dimensions. The market is relatively flat. The TPL are relatively flat and MOD more increase.

There's a more allocation of premium for reinsurance, much more so in the business sector for the last 12 months. Here we have costs of the insurance services that go up more slowly than in the other segments. That translates into operating results in a positive way. It is supported by the higher allocation and attribution of investment results allocated to this segment. The operating results went up to PLN 130 million, nearly 30% last year. Life insurance, a group and individually continued, is the section where I would like to pay your attention to two things. The first of them is the fact that although we speak of a product, of a segment, that is characterized with its, like, finite idea from the business point of view, there's a group insurance and that we have corporate clients.

For those clients, for their employees, we have an attractive insurance contract. That group policy is then transformed after this phase into an individually continued policy. We would like to have our clients benefit from those solutions in the individual phase. Despite that, what we have are two subsegments, so to speak, a group insurance that is yearly and renewable, that we have a right to negotiate and modify and think about the price with our corporate partner every year, and individual continued policies, where quite often the clients gain the right in that group phase. Why is that important? It is important because in terms of revenue allocation in the standard form, it changes in the group and individual continued phase. In IFRS 17, it's different. The group part, it is allocated from group to individual continued. What consequences does it have?

When we look at the group business, without that element, sometimes it has a relatively higher claims ratio and lower rentability in the group segment. In the individually continued, when that premium is reallocated from the group phase, it shows a slightly higher profitability. It is significant, as much so as the lack of symmetry influences the rate, scale, and time distribution of the claim that we recognize in those both components, so to speak.

I'd like to emphasize that we have to remember about that, as for summing up of revenues from life insurance. As I mentioned before, when it comes to life insurance, we'd like to encourage you to look at the value of revenues in a different way. Contrary to short-term agreements, where we have many similarities to the old world, whereas here it is being built through the perspective of our expectations on how we'll be shaping our relations with our clients. How we are going to recognize in our results different elements, both the ones related to claims and benefits, administrative costs, and others. Why am I mentioning this? Because especially in this area, perhaps the standard won't be as intuitive for all of you. Because we are recognizing a very particular situation in this quarter.

In light of a decreasing mortality and improvement in profitability in life insurance, we are allocating a smaller part of the insurance to components such as claims and benefits. Thanks to that, we can recognize the higher element of our insurance margins. As you see, in 2023, that is on the level of PLN 294 million. Last year, in this period, it was at the level of around PLN 250 million. This is happening in spite of, or especially because of the way that our expectations are shaped when it comes to the distribution over time of costs and claims and benefits, and how they match the actual reality. From the viewpoint of adjustments of the expectations in the context of the COVID pandemic, this can make understanding of this topic even more difficult.

The seasonal character of mortality, let us remember that the distribution over the course of a year is such that it's high in Q1, then it drops in Q2 and Q3, and then it goes back to high values in the fourth quarter. It's all from the viewpoint of modeling the revenues, especially in short-term products, in group and individually continued products. This makes a difference in this regard. This is the situation, and this translates into decreasing revenues measured by the sum of the components year-over-year by 5%, with a growing element, which is significantly building the profitability of the sector, which are CMS and insurance margins. On the side of costs, we are seeing a decrease, which amounts to 3.5% year-over-year.

Here we've shown you the components of this value. We've shown you the decreased loss component. Between the last quarter of past year and the first quarter of this year, has dropped by PLN 40 million. This was in light of lower claims due to mortality in this sector. This all translated into the results of the operating results. It has grown to the level of PLN 279 million. That was the increase of margin from 14.1% to 15.3%. The structure of revenues is behaving a bit differently than the structure of costs, especially when it comes to the dynamic between different periods. The operating result and its increase, it's predominantly shaped by elements related to investment results allocated to this segment.

An investment result, which is covering the insurance risk. As for individual protection insurance, here, this story may not be as difficult because there is a decrease in revenues due to a lower expected distribution of claims and the lower valuation due to insurance liabilities year- to- year. This is accompanied by an increase in the level of CSM. This drop of expectations in a, is symmetrically related and is seen in our experiences in the cost of insurance services. Here, there is a decrease of over 4%, which translates into the increase of the operating result. Both when it comes to the contribution of margins from insurance services, as well as the investment component. Two words about the evolution of CMS

As we mentioned, this is the product that is mainly responsible for the profitability of life insurance, its value over time. The main drivers of the change in the balance value of this measure year- to- year. We have some good news that there is an increasing value of CSM in both segments. This tell us that in terms of value creation, we have such a situation, both in group and individually continued insurance. It's been growing by almost 2% and in individual protection insurance by almost 4%. This is good news. I'd like to emphasize that on the one hand, we are creating CSM from new sales.

On the example of group and individual continued insurance, PLN 39 million. We are also creating CSM because throughout this time we've been providing insurance protection. Proportionally to the units of insurance coverage, we have to also recognize this element over time. The depreciation, the release of this component related to the first quarter, which amounted to PLN 274 million. Different factors have not changed, so we might have the wrong impression that we are in a situation where this value is being depreciated and it's not being built. Actually, quite the opposite is taking place. Let me look at the other building block, so to speak, PLN 163 millions, which is built predominantly through changes in the portfolio development between the primary policy valuation in our portfolio and what happened in the first quarter.

In this component, there is a large share of riders for insurance, and due to the methods of valuation, this will be shown as a change of the portfolio development from the viewpoint of value and not as new sales. Again, this may not be too intuitive, but this is important from the viewpoint of a proper CSM development over time. We have different levels of opening and closing balance sheets in individual protection insurance, and this depends on different factors that influence the results. For profitability by operating segments, as we said, high profitability of non-life insurance, around 86%, measured by a mixed index. This is a new measure, new index.

It's also very important to emphasize that, both when it comes to the creation of the denominator of this value, but this is the best proxy that we can propose today. As we refer that, and we try to compare this with the values from standard four . We emphasize that both in terms of mass insurance and corporate insurance, in all corporate lines, MOT and TPL, there are values below 100%. This shows that, despite creating the loss component, we are nonetheless still able to create value and to have operational results in the segments of such products, and this proves our theory. Total life insurance. We have margins almost resembling those from before the pandemic. It was 14.5% in the 1st quarter of 2022, now in 1Q 2023, it's 18.1%.

It's a scale measured by revenues. It's almost 80%, and year-to-year growth due to the decline in mortality amount to 15.3%. I'll just mention briefly that we have a good and growing contribution in terms of foreign business. Let's not forget about that. As we mentioned before, the first quarter of this year means going back to the previous measures in terms of mortality to levels from before the COVID pandemic. I will not go into that, but this is confirmed by our experiences and the influence of different risks to changes in claims. There's been an improvement when it comes to risk of death, and we also have the health debt, which, compared to a similar period in the previous years, was building the claims rate year-to-year, and it worsened it by 4.5 percentage points.

The investment result was shaped by a very safe portfolio. Some of them are debt instruments, mostly debt, treasury debt. We also have corporate debts, additional 17%, 18%, and profitability is high, and it's on the rise. Today, we are trying to be a beneficiary of the market changes.

We've been a bit lucky when it comes to the timing of changes on the market in view of our historical maturation of quite a large tranche, which amounted to the value below 5%, and now it is rolled at a level of 6.5%. It's quite an exceptional situation. A large part of the result has been shaped by growing share of the interest result that is growing. It grows year by year by 40%, 44%, drop of the result in the capital instruments, mainly in our investments in private equity funds, in technological market, and declining valuation at the end of the previous year and at the beginning of this year. A stable increase in real estate portfolio. Mainly from the FX hedging instruments, as well as increase in rental rates.

All of that still in the context of high solvency. A high in solvency that grows mainly thanks to the own funds increase and operating cash flow. This one is another component that confirms that we're growing in scale. The investment result also contributes to that result on solvency. It is slightly corrected by the increase of the estimate of provisions and what happened until the third quarter of 2020, which is the recommendation by the management board of paying the dividends, and it's missing element as compared to the value reported in the cash flow as own funds at the end of the third quarter. Decline in SCR in fourth quarter, 2020, by PLN 0.03 billion. From the point of view of strategy, we have good information. A very high strategic objective in insurance revenue.

What we did is put the by heart up at the level of PLN 28 billion, where grow and are on a good way. It's easy to estimate that it will not be an easy road. We will try to be able to keep growing in this dimension in the same way as we did at the end of last year and the beginning of 2023. Over 30% increase in the health segment, growing net profit attributable to the parent company. Growth in bank segment. Very high Solvency II ratio and own equity. Why do we speak about corrected solvency of own equity? That's ROE.

As you know, the new standard was supposed to equal, like, equal the assets and liabilities in terms of how they react to the context in which the company is discounting of the cash flow, discounting of in terms of the expected characteristic distribution of the factors typical for the market. Today, this is a parameter that is difficult to estimate. We all know why. Nonetheless, this strong assumption in this concept level is not possible for us to implement 100%. Why?

It's because contrary to other insurers in our view group, we're not able to forget that PZU, while looking at the whole things that we are talking to you about in the context of international standards, we need to be the guardian of the market in terms of local standards, and at the unit level, we are not able to give them up, nor modify them. Why do I say this? It's because due to the dichotomy, due to the fact that in the level of the asset and liability management, we need to remember that we have some commitments to insurers expressed by technical rates. Well, in our portfolios, where the main role is to provide protection, to have the assets to be provided at the level lower than the technical rate, we are not able to change our investment strategy.

It is the investment strategy that determines the valuation of assets and not the valuation of assets, that is determining the strategy. For that very reason, we are not able to make decisions about the valuation of assets to the market, that will lead to this perfect matching of the two sides of the balance sheet, just because in the extreme situations, and the last three years showed us that we have to deal with extreme situations. We cannot make a decision to expose our shareholders to lack of possibility of delivering this technical rate. That would mean we would have to do that from our shareholders' money, from the money that maybe should as additional return.

Because of that standard in its scope is not implemented in identical way in PZU, as in our competitors in the markets where the local standard is international as well. I am paying your attention to that, because that's the very element which makes us a bit mismatched and well, because the assets and liabilities behave a little bit differently. When we need to close the balance sheet down to the same value, we need to find the space where we can actually have this difference. Other total revenue is that space for us, and there, well, we're working on it, we still have no impact on that. Well, I've been joking.

Without much of impact on that, we are not able to manage this parameter in a responsible way, and because of that, the reference value and the value that expresses our ambition in the strategy, is the value with a correction of that element, because only in that way we are able to say we're able to control all the variables. Let's end at this point, that part of the presentation and open the meeting to questions and answers. All the questions are welcome from the room and from online. That's a moment of I wanted to say that we haven't had the questions from the room, and I was given an iPad. Well, very well then. No pressure. Okay. Let's take the question.

Speaker 1

Can you explain current pricing trends in motor Poland, what are your expectations on pricing?

Speaker 2

It is a very interesting question. I will be happy to answer it. As you have seen, the situation of the modern market development, the last chart is at the end of the previous year. Shows us the following thing: thanks to significant drop in the frequency of claims, we went back to slight rentability on that product. We need to remember that at the end of the previous quarter, the commission of financial supervisions recommendation was implemented that impacts the level of the claims paid to the clients on that segment. The growing costs should be accompanied with some assumptions around price adequacy, then we should expect, and that's our central scenario as well, some correction on the profits or revenue side.

What we see today, are the corrections happening around there, but at a pace that's significantly slower than the changes in the costs side. We shall see how we go around and what we can do in the next quarters about that. Let me remind you that in case of PZU , what we are dealing with in terms of local standard, the situation is with weaker rentabilities of the current year, it is accompanied with a release of surplus from the previous years, and that allows us to still show positive rentability on the TPL, motor TPL. Historically, that has been a function of us being cautious. Today, contrary to our competitors, it gives us some space to have an easier way to manage this super demanding situation. Taking into account a local price adequacy requirement, we may expect nothing but just one thing.

Well, I think we've talked about that. We had a separate slide about that, so if you need any further explanation, please let me know.

Is the COR in the first quarter in 2023 at the level of 85.7%, is it comparable to the way of measuring under the old standard?

Well, we have the loss component, which now reflects the loss for the whole period of the insurance coverage. It's different than in the previous standard, when it was related to per premium through the coverage period. It had less impact on the costs, and it was offsetted by profitable policies. There are some small differences due to which we cannot compare the different standards, but this is the best measure that we can propose to you, and consequently, from the first quarter, we can use it and then use it in the subsequent quarters.

The comparable net profits under the old standard is a bit lower than under IFRS 17. Which positions have the greatest impact on that? Revenues, claims, or the location results?

No, not the location results. That does not impact the portfolio so much. I mentioned that at the end of my presentation. There is a difference here in terms of the logic that underlies this idea, the logic of those who proposed this shape of the standard. As I assume, the main objective was to create a certain symmetry in terms of reaction to changes in the environment, both in terms of assets and liabilities of the balance sheet. We were not able to enforce that, as I mentioned, it's not the location result that has an impact here, because it is presented and valued the same way as it was before. As for the results under the new standard, they are impacted as it may be easy to guess, and it's a standard related to insurance activities.

This is what influences this new standard, a different valuation of different components, both in terms of costs and revenues. More when it comes to costs, there is a slightly different approach, so we are recognizing them a bit sooner and on a different level of potential losses, if such appear. Again, there is a distortion of the symmetry that we had in standard four and a different approach to revenues, especially on the side of life insurance. These are the components that have the greatest impact on the differences between, as you saw, the value of PLN 1. 155 billion and PLN 1. 80 billion.

What is the target level of combined ratio in the long term, according to the new standard?

Well, it's no trivial question, and let me tell you why. I could say, assuming that nothing changes... To a certain extent, I'm quite skeptical as I say this, because I remember similar changes in the banking sector, how the interpretation of the new standard changed over the course of the first 12 months after its introduction. I am aware that here the situation may be similar when it comes to the interpretation and the approach in the execution of this new standard and how it will impact balance sheets and financial reports. If you're talking about combined ratio in the long term, and since the valuation of provisions is not so conservative as it was under standard four , this conservative aspect is also related to the character of the Polish market.

I would say that this is a move in the right direction, if I may assess it like that it's in the right direction, and now the increase in the level of provisions are smaller. On the other hand, if we look at the share of costs, which are costs attributed to insurance activities, and differently than in standard four , are not completely fulfilling the catalog or meeting the catalog of costs, so their value is a bit lower. Looking at the construction of the denominator, which is a bit different than in the old standard, number four. In the old standard, we were talking about long-term over the cycle, so we want to stay at the level below 92%. Now we should be able to say, starting from the same phrase, long-term over the cycle below 90.

Here I'd like to put an asterisk to this, that this is all under the assumption that we're talking about the same, and we're talking in the same way. Also, looking at different factors which differ and which influence the way that things are reported, also the value of business which yields certain liabilities.

Speaker 1

Can you talk about claims inflation and pricing dynamics in the motor segment, and do you see further worsening of this trend?

Speaker 2

I'm not sure if I agree with the premise, the first part of this question, so I want to go back to the division into segments. Yes, there's been a worsening quality when it comes to TPL, but when it comes to MOD, especially in corporate business, then it's hard to say that. It's not exactly like that. I do agree with the second part. If you're talking about claims inflation, then our estimates about the impact of the use of the recommendations of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, KNF, that could lead to two digits increase growth. At the same time, and I spoke about this many times, we have launched several projects aimed at lowering, decreasing this dynamic, so that we don't have to recognize it 100% on the parts of profitability or revenue.

These are activities which are connected to the improvement of the way we manage this, and we channel this to our own networks, and also the period of dealing with claims, handling claims by outside networks. Contrary to what we thought at the beginning, we thought that these projects would limit our costs, and now we think that these are instruments which are limited our increase of the average claim value. From the early two-digit dynamics, we should go below 10. We should close at the level of maybe eight or below eight, but it's too early in the project to be able to tell, so we'll keep you updated.

Allegedly, if you look at inflation, the cost of work, the parts of inflation, of varnishes, of different elements, all that influence the cost of claims, but also of handling the claims over the course of the past 12 months. Also, in terms of the recommendation of KNF, if this value is growing. As you saw in the previous slides, to some extent, the growth is being limited through a drop in the frequency rate, but not fully, and the insurance market will have to deal with that.

Speaker 1

Are upcoming for maturity this year that could be invested at current higher rates?

Speaker 2

It's about PLN 2.3 billion. That's the portfolio, and that was the last question from this set that I've received. Do we have any other, any more questions? No. Well, I'd like to thank everyone who joined our meeting remotely, and I'd like to thank all the participants who are here on site at the PZU office. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for our meeting. I'd like to use this occasion to invite you to a workshop. We believe it will help you to understand this new standard and PZU through the lens of this new standard. We hope that they will also answer some of your questions that maybe we were not able to cover today. It will take place on June 2nd. Do we have the exact time?

Around 10.

Around 10:00 A.M., but we'll confirm the exact time. We'll confirm that in a standard way. Thank you very much for your attention, and I hope to see you soon.

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