AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2011

May 3, 2011

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AMERISAFE first quarter earnings conference call. During today's presentation, all parties will be in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions. If you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the two. If you're using speaker equipment, please lift the handset before making your selection. This conference is being recorded May 3rd, 2011. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ben Burnham. Please go ahead, sir.

Ben Burnham
Company Representative, AMERISAFE

Thank you, Alicia, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your joining us for AMERISAFE's conference call to review 2011 first quarter results. We'd also like to welcome our internet participants as this call is being simulcast over the web. Before I turn the call over to management, I have the normal housekeeping details to cover. You could have received an email of the earnings release yesterday afternoon, but occasionally there are technical difficulties. If you did not receive your email with the release, or if you would like to be placed on the email distribution list, please call 713-529-6600. There will also be a replay of today's call. It will be available via webcast by going to the company's website at www.amerisafe.com. Details on how to access that feature are in the earnings release.

Please note that information on this call speaks only as of today, May 3rd, 2011. Therefore, you are advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the time of any replay listening. Statements made in the press release or in the conference call that are not historical facts, including statements accompanied by words such as will, believe, anticipate, expect, estimate, or other similar words, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding AMERISAFE's plans and performance. These statements are based upon management's estimates, assumptions, and projections as of the date of this call and are not guarantees of future performance.

Actual results may differ from the results expressed or implied in these statements as a result of risks, uncertainties, and other factors, including, but not limited to, the factors set forth in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including AMERISAFE's 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2010, and future and other filings. AMERISAFE cautions that you do not place undue reliance upon forward-looking statements contained in this release or in this conference call. AMERISAFE does not undertake any obligation to update or publicly revise any forward-looking information or statements to reflect future events, information, or circumstances that may arise after the date of the release and call. For further information, please see the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that behind us, I'd like to turn the call over to Allen Bradley, the company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Allen?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Thanks, Ben. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2011 conference call. As usual, I'll make a few comments about the quarter before turning it over to Geoff Banta , our President and Chief Operating Officer, who will then in turn introduce Janelle Frost, our Chief Financial Officer, for additional details. 2011 began with a significant increase in gross premiums written. Improvements in audit adjustments, coupled with the business from the renewal rights and assumption agreement with the former Cooperative Mutual Insurance Co., drove the top line to a healthy 16.8% year-over-year increase in gross premiums written and a 20.1% increase on a net written basis. At the same time, policies written during the quarter had increased pricing, and we believe that the marketplace shows that pricing is firming.

While there is still excess capacity in the marketplace, as the calendar year combined ratios rise, we see a number of carriers that are being less aggressive in pursuing high-hazard risk. Additionally, while the demand for our product is clearly not robust, we do note an uptick in work activity for our insured employers. Across the workers' compensation industry, underwriting margins are under significant pressure, and AMERISAFE is not immune from that trend. However, AMERISAFE has continued to report an underwriting profit driven largely by favorable prior year developments. Going forward, we expect to see greater opportunities to write profitable business as the flight from the high-hazard space accelerates and the economy continues to improve. The combined impact of an improved competitive landscape and increased pricing should become apparent as the current policy year unfolds. Now I'm going to turn it over to Jeff for an update on operations.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Thank you, Allen, and good morning, everyone. I'll make a few comments about our operational performance and trends before turning things over to Janelle to present a summary of our financials. I'll begin by discussing our top line. As Allen noted, gross premiums written were up strongly in the first quarter by 16.8% year-over-year. The increase was due mainly to a year-over-year improvement in negative premium adjustments. These adjustments, made up of audits, cancellations, and endorsements, have now improved for seven straight months year-over-year and were actually net positive in February and March. Additionally, our declarations sheet work comp premium was up by 2.5% in the first quarter year-over-year, as we wrote and assumed approximately $4 million of premium from Co-op Mutual. In terms of renewal business, our results have been very healthy. In the first quarter, our policy retention at 92.6% was the highest

Our average written premium for renewals was also up year-over-year in the first quarter for the first time since 2008. As a result of the strength of our policy retention, our in-force policy count was flat during the first quarter in spite of a drop-off in new business. A drop-off, by the way, which was not unexpected given that we began taking aggressive steps in the latter half of 2010 to strengthen both underwriting and pricing. Speaking of pricing, our effective LCM for voluntary work comp in the first quarter was 1.48 or 148% of the approved loss costs of the states that use that mechanism for pricing. This was up from 1.43 in the fourth quarter of 2010 and represents the third consecutive quarter of pricing increases and the highest pricing level since the third quarter of 2007.

In terms of losses, our first quarter results benefited from favorable overall development in accident years prior to 2011. Accident years 2009 and prior are developing extremely well, but 2010 had higher than normal quarter five development due to some severe losses that experienced adverse changes in medical conditions. As a result, in the first quarter, we added 6.5 points to our year-end 2010 accident year loss ratio. Our 2011 accident year has begun with higher frequency, but lower severity than 2010. As a result, we have made an initial estimate for 2011 that assumes similar losses, but higher premium when compared to our 2010 accident year. If we are correct, 2011 will become the third consecutive year in which AMERISAFE has posted accident year loss ratios higher than 70%.

We firmly believe that our results and the results of the industry as a whole are being significantly impacted by the cumulative effects of deficient loss costs and increases in claims duration, and that the full impact of these factors won't really be known until the 2012-2013 calendar years. In the meantime, we are going to continue to push our pricing, tighten our underwriting, and adjust claims as aggressively as we have in the past. With that, I will turn to Janelle to present details on our financials.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2011, AMERISAFE reported net income of $6.6 million, or $0.35 per share, compared to $11.3 million or $0.58 per share in the first quarter of 2010. As Jeff discussed, gross premiums written rose 16.8%, primarily attributable to less negative audit and related adjustments. Also, we completed the previously announced renewal rights and assumption agreement with Cooperative Mutual in the first quarter of 2011. Net premiums earned increased 9.1% from the year ago quarter. Our net investment income totaled $6.5 million in both the first quarter of 2011 and 2010. Average invested assets were $825.2 million, compared to an average of $803.1 million in the first quarter of 2010. The tax equivalent yield on our investment portfolio was 4.6% compared to 4.7% in the first quarter of 2010.

In total, revenue for the first quarter of 2011 was $67 million, up 4% from $64.4 million in the year ago period. Our current accident year loss ratio for the quarter was 77%, compared to 62.5% a year ago and 81.8% for the full year of 2010. Our incurred loss and loss adjustment expenses totaled $44.2 million for the quarter, which included $2.1 million of favorable prior year development, primarily attributable to accident years 2006, 2007, and 2008. We did experience unfavorable development for accident year 2010 in the quarter. This compares to loss and loss adjustment expenses of $37.6 million in last year's first quarter, which included $2.3 million of favorable prior year development. In total, our net loss ratio for the first quarter of 2011 was 73.5%, compared to 68.3% for the first quarter of 2010.

Total underwriting and other expenses increased 16.5% to $14.6 million, compared to $12.5 million in the first quarter of 2010. The 2011 first quarter expense components included $5.1 million of salaries and benefits, $4.3 million of commissions, and $5.2 million of underwriting and other costs. The expense ratio increased to $24.2 million from $22.7 million in the same quarter a year ago. The primary reason for the higher expense ratio is lower experience-rated commission related to our 2011 first layer reinsurance. As you may recall, these commissions act as an offset to our expenses, and in the first quarter of 2011, experience-rated commission offset our underwriting expense ratio by 2.2 percentage points, compared to 4.3 percentage points in the first quarter of 2010. In total, our combined ratio was 98.3% for the first quarter versus 91.5% for the same period in 2010.

Return on average equity for the first quarter of 2011 was 8.1%, compared to 14.7% for the first quarter of 2010. Book value per share at March 31st, 2011, was $18.05, an increase of 9.5% compared to $16.49 in the first quarter a year ago. In the first quarter, we also repurchased nearly 160,000 shares at an average price of $17.98, including commissions. As of March 31st, 2011, we had spent approximately $15 million on our share repurchase program, leaving $20.4 million left authorized. Finally, our statutory surplus was $304 million after paying a $22 million dividend to the holding company. Cash at the holding company is held for share repurchase programs, retiring debt, or future acquisitions. That concludes my prepared remarks on the financials. We now turn the discussion back to Alan.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Thanks, Janelle. Over the past few years, those of you who have been following our quarterly calls are familiar with the portrait we have described in terms of the workers' compensation marketplace. Repeatedly, we have described the marketplace as one beset with multi-year loss cost declines, intense competition, increasing claim severity, all occurring during a weakening economic environment. That portrait was one of a decidedly gothic tint. We were not intending to be overly pessimistic, but rather provide you an honest opinion and picture of how we saw the marketplace. We now believe that landscape is changing. Pricing, as demonstrated by our effective LCM, is rising. Loss costs are beginning to rise after seven consecutive years of declines. Economic conditions, while not vibrant, are improving. Most importantly, the financial results of the workers' compensation line reflects the poor choices made during the prolonged soft market.

All of these factors are the pigments of a new portrait, one that is brighter and portrays greater opportunity for those who are positioned to take advantage of the circumstances. With a solid balance sheet, an established distribution network, and excess operational capacity, AMERISAFE is well positioned to take advantage of these circumstances, and we do intend to seize this opportunity. As I cautioned you last quarter, we do not expect these opportunities to result in an immediate short-term benefit, but rather to form the foundation for an sustained period of expansion for this company. Operator, let's open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, if you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. If you need to withdraw your question, press the star followed by the two. If you're using speaker equipment, you will need to lift the handset before making your selection. Please ask one question and one follow-up, and re-queue for additional questions. Our first question comes from the line of Mike Grasher with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Good morning, everyone.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Morning, Mike.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Quick question for Jeff and a follow-up to it. I guess with regard to the accident year loss ratio, sounds like it remains a pretty fluid situation. Are you seeing trends, though, that suggest some stabilization in here or maybe to keep the accident year loss ratio at this level and away from the higher levels we saw in the last two quarters of 2010?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Mike, which accident year are you specifically asking about?

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

On a quarterly basis, if you look at 2010, the accident years loss ratios came in at 95.5%, 83.4%, and now this quarter we're at 77%.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Yeah. 2011 and 2010 are tracking fairly similar in terms of incurred losses. 2011 has a slightly higher frequency, but because of mix of claims, the average severities in 2011 are lower. They're very similar in a lot of ways. They both started fairly robustly. And obviously those loss years are impacted by lower than what we think are reasonable loss costs. What gives us some degree of optimism is that earned premium is up 9.1% for the 2011 accident year. The denominator is going to play an important role, and we'll just have to keep watching whether 2011 continues to track with 2010. Both were loss years that were hotter than we were used to.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Yeah, it may be unfair to compare 2011 to 2010 just yet, I guess, given that we're only three months into it.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

True. I was thinking in terms of first quarter versus first quarter, Mike. It is somewhat apples and apples.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Okay. I guess the other follow-up to that would be how much does the current environment impact your thinking around the accident year loss ratio from the standpoint of the claim duration? If you look at the change in your accident, your assumptions, and you see what the job outlook is, how much does it keep you with keeping that accident year higher?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Well, we are still concerned about duration. It still is elongating. As Alan mentioned, there are some economic indicators out there, and we know that employment is released again. The figures are released again this Friday, but the economic environment is improving, albeit incrementally, and I won't speak for Alan, but I expect that to calm down and get to the point where we're not nearly as concerned about that factor in our 2011. I think it will start easing, but it definitely began, and we began to see the duration increases in 2009, and the big issue is going to be return to work and how much temporary total disability causes us to continue to keep claims that would normally have been closed in 2008 and prior on the books in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Alan, would you?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Right. Mike, the real disappointing part about 2010 were the negative audit premiums, which came through for time periods that were not exactly matched up with the loss periods.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Yeah.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

That cycle has clearly changed. As we've mentioned on previous calls, we expect that to continue for another 12 to 15 months. In a way, in 2011, we are now recording premium for exposures that we had in 2010, and that lack of perfect matching between the premium and the losses is one thing that negatively impacted 2010 and will be a benefit to 2011.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Mike, one more point. Last year at NCCI, and I think you were there, we saw for the first time since I can remember, a presentation specifically dealing with temporary total disability. The actuaries down there at NCCI tend to be very conservative in terms of calling a trend a trend. They like to see a lot of data. To me, that was quite telling that they provided a special presentation on an emerging, a beginning trend in TTD that they were seeing. I fully expect they'll repeat that presentation, and things will have deteriorated. That's something you ought to watch if you're looking on the NCC website after the Annual Issues Symposium is completed.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Okay. Well, thank you very much. That's helpful.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Mark Hughes
Research Analyst, SunTrust

Thank you very much. The assumption agreement had a nice contribution this quarter. Any expectations you can share regarding future quarters? Was there any unusual seasonality in this business? Should that repeat over the subsequent three quarters?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Right. The agreement with Austin Mutual/Co-op Mutual was as follows. Beginning January 1st, we had a renewal rights transaction where we had the opportunity to renew the business that had been with Co-op Mutual. The assumption portion of that agreement actually commenced March 1st, 2011, and was for the remaining policies for the stub periods left on those policies, which would be scattered through the remainder part of the year. I think this probably fully accounts for the Co-op Mutual transaction. Anything that you see subsequent to it would just be renewal of policies that come up as they expire should we be the successful bidder on that. I think probably a sort of an interesting question is going to be if, as anticipated, the NCCI reports Thursday of this week that the workers' compensation line has recorded 117 or thereabout % combined ratio for the calendar year.

There may be a great deal more renewal rights transactions or more business available in the marketplace. That's well above the action level for workers' comp, even in normal investing times, certainly not in times where the investment yields are as low as they are today.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Right. Mark, one more thing about that. If you think about the way we book our business, when that assumed business that Allen talked about came on our books at three one, we put that on as estimated premium for the remainder of the policy period. To the extent that business picks up in agribusiness and we get some audit premium from that still could have an impact. Otherwise, Allen is exactly correct. Unless we do another transaction, that ought to be pretty much it for the year for Co-op.

Mark Hughes
Research Analyst, SunTrust

Okay. Then do you have the dollar figure for the reserve strengthening for the 2010 accident year?

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Sure. The adverse development for accident year 2010 for the quarter was $13.8 million.

Mark Hughes
Research Analyst, SunTrust

A big number.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

It was.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Not historically big, but still a number we weren't quite prepared for.

Mark Hughes
Research Analyst, SunTrust

Right. Sure. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Beth Malone with Wunderlich. Please go ahead.

Beth Malone
Analyst, Wunderlich Securities

Okay. Thank you. The pricing environment, as you point out, seems to be improving, or you believe it's going to be improving. How important is it that these companies that are going to be challenged by this 117? Do you think that that's going to be an important part of the capacity leaving the market? Is this just as a consequence of the pricing environment?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Well, Beth, the high hazard market, as we have watched the cycles through our 25 years of operation history, which by the way, Saturday was our 25th anniversary. The high hazard market tends to be sort of a leading indicator in terms of a hardening market and a trailing indicator in terms of a softening market. It's the last place people get in during a soft market and the first place they get out during a hard market. I think that we've gone through a time period where we've had seven consecutive years of loss cost reductions. Because of the shrinkage of the amount of property and casualty business written in the country, the universe of P&C carriers have been fighting over a smaller pie. It's been a typical competitive cycle where the pricing's gone below realistic levels.

The long tail lines have clearly indicated a deterioration in their performance. I think that there will be diminished capacity. I think we're in the capital destruction phase of the workers' comp business. For those carriers that are multi-line writers that have been using workers' comp as a loss leader, I think that's losing a lot of luster. I say that because of the actions we see of competitors leaving the marketplace. It's not all a question of just the pricing. It's a question of how our pricing compares to other people that are quoting on the same account. I would have to tell you, as compared to 12 months ago, our pricing, which has been well above the market, Jeff, I'd say 20% or 30% above the market

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Yeah

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

is now in a competitive state where it was not before. I think it's all those factors together. Usually for smaller carriers, when the NCCI meets and gives their outlook for the industry, that carries a lot of weight with a lot of carriers, particularly the smaller carriers in the marketplace.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Hey, Beth, if I could add to what Alan just said. I think sometimes when we say prices are increased, some folks assume that that's new business only. Some of the underwriting and pricing actions we took in 2010 were for both new and renewal business. What is promising to me is that even with increased pricing, new business did fall off as we expected, but not as badly as it fell off a year ago. A year ago, we were actually decreasing prices. Renewals, just about every measure of renewal health is up, even with increased pricing actions. That gives us great cause for optimism that something is happening in the marketplace that may point to the end of the soft market, especially, as Alan pointed out, in our high hazard niches.

Beth Malone
Analyst, Wunderlich Securities

Okay. Then a question on the reserve development that you experienced in 2010 that you saw in 2011. I guess the way I think about it is, does that suggest that when you put that business on the books, the circumstances subsequently changed with that business? That there were events that occurred in that book that you hadn't anticipated because otherwise, wouldn't you have priced it higher to begin with and set aside more reserves to begin with?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

I don't know if I'd go to that extent. This underwriting and pricing is art, not science. I would say that the severe claims have been the ones that have really kind of dogged us. It's just not that precise that one, two, three, or four claims where somebody falls, and these are real examples, somebody falls 50 feet and lives. Somebody appears to be recovering nicely. Those things in a business like ours where we're not a large carrier, and especially in our situation where we've lost $100 million of premium in the last, what, Allen, four years?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Four years.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Those things have a bigger impact when you compare them with a lower denominator. I think it's really this lumpiness we've talked about and this unpredictability of these large losses that tend to cause us to miss in terms of approximating what our future development would be more than did we price it incorrectly.

Beth Malone
Analyst, Wunderlich Securities

Okay. All right. Is it that kind of fluctuation that also is the catalyst that gets these fringe participants in the market to leave the market eventually?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Absolutely.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Yes.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Absolutely.

Beth Malone
Analyst, Wunderlich Securities

Okay.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Yes.

Beth Malone
Analyst, Wunderlich Securities

All right. Thank you.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Beth, think of it this way. This is one of the cases, I don't want to be too specific about it in the interest of the privacy of the claimant. The injured worker, which was injured, I want to say back in August or September.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

September

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

was diagnosed as having a significant injury, but at least a potential for full recovery. Two and a half months into the year this year, all of a sudden, he's diagnosed as a complete paraplegic.

Which comes as a shock to everyone. That changes the dynamic of that case in terms of medical expenses dramatically.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

As a matter of fact, and this is quite unusual, as far as the 2010 accident year, Beth, that ends up being our largest claim now.

Beth Malone
Analyst, Wunderlich Securities

Okay. All right. Well, thank you.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bijan Moazami with FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Bijan Moazami
Analyst, FBR Capital Markets

Good morning. Alan, you mentioned that the LCM is going up. Would you be kind enough to put some numbers on that?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Sure. The LCM for the quarter was 1.48 or 148% of the loss costs. Let me give you some sequential numbers. The second quarter of 2010, it was 141. The third quarter, it was 142. The fourth quarter, it was 143. The first quarter, it's 148. We intend to continue to push it within the bounds of reason.

Bijan Moazami
Analyst, FBR Capital Markets

Okay. Where do you see the most price increases?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

We see the most price increases or where we can actually get the greatest price increases, quite frankly, in states we're not too interested in writing.

Bijan Moazami
Analyst, FBR Capital Markets

California and Florida.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

We're not in California, and you can't adjust your pricing in Florida. I would say that would fall into Illinois.

I would say it would also be in certain sectors such as trucking as opposed to maybe construction.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Roofing.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Roofing.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Ag.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Oil and gas, ag. Some of those are the ones that are seeing the most movements. There is a state component as you have certain states who have reduced loss cost or perhaps have hostile sort of environments. I think you've probably heard a number of carriers indicate that they're not terribly excited about Illinois' workers' comp environment, and we share that. We have restricted dramatically our writing there. It's not just a question of whether we can get a rate. We can get a rate in Illinois, but it probably needs to be 200% of the loss cost in order to give you a reasonable expectation of producing a profit.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Hey, Bijan, let's take trucking, for example. I'd like to make a distinction. We don't know exactly what our competitors are doing. We have ways of finding out in general anecdotally, but we've noticed in trucking a few competitors, and not small competitors, just saying, "We're out of this state." We'll take a state that may not be doing well in trucking, and we'll say, "Can we sub-segment this?" It can't be the whole trucking industry in that state that is going south. There's got to be a way to drill down and figure out segments that are still performing well, and that's the approach we take. Maybe I'll compare it to a sledgehammer versus a scalpel. That's what we try to do.

Occasionally it gets so bad, like 3 years ago, Illinois construction, where we just said, "We're out of here as far as new business." Most times we try to say, "There's got to be some good in there as well, and let's cut it as intelligently as we can rather than just leave.

Bijan Moazami
Analyst, FBR Capital Markets

Great. On the co-op mutual, what % of the business you ended up renewing? Should we expect some more renewal-like transactions going forward?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

I don't have the %, Bijan, but I would tell you it was very high. I would say 75%-85%.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

I would agree with that.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

That's an estimate. I know that's what it was through somewhere near first couple of months. I haven't gone back and looked at it.

Bijan Moazami
Analyst, FBR Capital Markets

The cost of those kind of renewal-like transaction, it's obviously going to go to the expense ratio. Should we make some adjustments to that going forward?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

It's simply there's no upfront

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Cost of that transaction. It's just a matter if we renew the policy, they get an additional commission. For example, if our average commission was 7% or 6.5%, they would get double that for only those policies that we renewed. There was no upfront cost. If we didn't like the policy, we didn't pay anything for that book of business.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

All right. Is it three years or five years?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Three.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Three.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

It's declining over the-

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

It's tiered

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

three years. It's tiered down. By the way, by way of advertisement, if you know of any others, we are interested in looking.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

I'm sure I can come up with a few. Thank you so much.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

I'm sure you could.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Carletti with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Hey, good morning.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Good morning.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Hi.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Hey, Matt.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Hey. I just wanted to go back, follow on Beth's question about the 2010 strengthening. How much of it, just kind of rough ballpark, was what you mentioned, those cases that just at some point in time get more severe, so I'll call it a case adjustment as opposed to IBNR adjustments?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Probably 60% or 70% of that, Matt.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

What cases?

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

These were big cases where we had changes in medical conditions or the like.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

By the sounds of it's probably just a handful of cases.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

It is.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

It is. Definitely is.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Okay. My next question is on the expense ratio. It is 24% in the first quarter. If I understood the commentary right, in large part driven by the change in the reinsurance structure. Is that a level we should carry it at going forward? Maybe coming down a little bit as the renewals work their way through at the co-op?

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

That is a very good question. The expense ratio, obviously coming into this year, I think we were very good about preparing everyone there was going to be pressure on the expense ratio. Obviously, the difference when you are comparing it to first quarter of last year is the experience-rated commission. Our fixed costs are actually down. Yeah, I think as net premiums earned increases year-over-year, hopefully that will alleviate some of the pressure on the expense ratio.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Okay.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

I think if you go and see the difference on a percentage basis between gross and net this year and compare it between gross and net last year, you'll see the difference in the way the program is structured.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Okay. Last-

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Go ahead. Premium, we don't get the benefit to the expense ratio.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Right. Lastly, on the tax rate, it was 11% in the quarter. I know it's kind of mix of taxable versus non-taxable.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Right.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Have you kind of tried to accrue it for the year in the sense that we should think of a more kind of normalized, you've been running kind of 20-ish on a go forward, or is it going to be a lower amount than that?

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

That's a really tough call. You are absolutely right that what drives it to such a low number of 11.5% is the fact of our tax-exempt income compared to what we made on the underwriting side. As our underwriting margins increase, obviously the tax rate will go up. Predicting that at this point in the first quarter is just too difficult for us to do.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Okay. I mean, there's not a

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

I should say this, our level of taxes and income really hasn't changed all that much from last year as far as the actual dollars.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Got you. Okay.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Hey, Matt.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

Yeah.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Maybe if you declared, because I know you're always interested in the tax rate, maybe if you declared to Janelle that she's got a safe harbor in whatever she says.

Matt Carletti
Analyst, JMP Securities

I'm always willing to do that. All right. Thanks a lot, guys. Best of luck.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Thank you.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if there are additional questions at this time, please press the star one on your touchtone phone. As a reminder, if you are using speaker equipment today, you'll need to lift your handset before making your selection. Our next question is a follow-up question from the line of Mike Grasher with Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Thank you. Just a couple of additional questions here. With the storm activity that went through the Southeast, is that an opportunity for you to sort of, I guess, help put that region back together?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Well, Mike, of course, those were horrible tragedies and it impacted actually some of our employees. None lost homes, but there were many without electricity and that had damage. We have a significant book of business in the Southeastern U.S., and we are engaged insuring people that are engaged in construction and the trucking of goods. As terrible as it is, these types of storms generate economic activity, work activity as a recovery. The recovery portion ends, and the reconstruction phase begins. We would expect that there would be some increased work activity there. There may be some short-term drop-off in business on certain accounts if they suffered some damage to their part of the business. There will clearly be.

Operator

If you would like to make a call, please hang up and try again.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

There'll be a lot of roofing involved in that.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Okay.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Yes, I would expect some work activity out of that.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Mike, I don't know if you know it, but usually we've already gotten Allen. One of the states as North Carolina. We normally, in a very tough disaster, we get a request from the applicable state Departments of Insurance to grant concessions and delays without penalty of premium payments while insureds are trying to recover. We don't expect from a cash or collection basis for that to be significant at this time, but that happens as well. This is a big impact on the business.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

They'll issue a moratorium, Mike, that says you can't cancel anybody for non-payment.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Right

until a certain date. We're very familiar with that with hurricanes and the like. We see that quite a bit. It's not unusual.

Right. Okay. Then with the growth in the quarter, and I think Janelle mentioned the dividend of, I think it was $24 million. I'm looking at the risk to capital now at about 0.72, and you feel like the market's changing a little bit and opportunities that are out there. How are you thinking about capital right now, particularly with the share repurchase authorization in place?

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Sure. Our appetite for share repurchase has not changed. As we've said, our major goal is to not dilute the common shareholder. The company has been fortunate enough since the end of February that the stock price has been trading at 52-week highs, so there hasn't been a lot of activity on that front. As far as the dividend up from the insurance company to the holding company, that's a practice we've been doing for the last couple of years. As you know, as a whole, the company has over $52 million of cash. I will say, and this is going to be in our Q, that our board just last week voted that we are going to retire our $10 million tranche of trust preferred securities. If you remember on our balance sheet-

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Right

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

dollar debt. We're going to retire the $10 million tranche, which is the interest rate there, I think is four-tenths of LIBOR.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Okay.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

We're going to retire that. Now it'd actually be probably a third quarter event because we can't do it until the interest date, which I think is, I believe is in July.

Mike Grasher
Equity Analyst, Piper Jaffray

Okay. Thanks very much.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Seidel with Columbia Management. Please go ahead.

Paul Seidel
Analyst, Columbia Management

Good morning.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Morning.

Paul Seidel
Analyst, Columbia Management

Earlier on this year, you had noted that AIG had been leaving your end of the market. Do you have other specific examples of companies that are going?

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Yes. ACE has signaled in a number of areas that they are retracting, particularly in writing monoline workers' comp. We have seen pricing increases from Liberty and some of its subsidiaries. We've seen pricing increases from CNA, Hartford. We don't compete a lot with Travelers, but we hear of movements they're making in the marketplace. We see more of it, Paul, from the larger carriers than we are seeing from the small ones, and particularly from the small monolines. From our underwriters' perspective, they look out and say, "Well, there's still plenty of competition," because there is plenty of competition. Our average policy size is a small to midsize employer. That's why I think when the results of the year and the outlook from NCCI comes out this week, that will make a difference.

If it doesn't, there's going to be a lot of activity by the Departments of Insurance scattered across this country because there's no way that companies can continue to function in a 117% or higher combined ratio for any extended period of time.

Geoffrey R. Banta
President and COO, AMERISAFE

Especially not with these investment yields.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Yeah. Good point. Good point. The investment yields are a real problem right now.

Paul Seidel
Analyst, Columbia Management

Okay. Thank you.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Thanks, Paul.

G. Janelle Frost
EVP and CFO, AMERISAFE

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Mr. Bradley, I show no further questions in this time. Please continue with any closing comments.

C. Allen Bradley Jr.
Chairman and CEO, AMERISAFE

Just very briefly, we want to thank all of you for your interest in AMERISAFE. Over the past few years, we've had a loyal base of shareholders that have stood by AMERISAFE as we chose to not chase the premium volume during an extremely soft market. We do see that environment changing and look forward to regaining some premium volume opportunistically as the market transitions. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the AMERISAFE's first quarter earnings conference call. If you'd like to listen to a replay of today's conference, please dial 1-303-590-3030 and enter the access code of 4430703 followed by the pound sign. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.