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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Aug 31, 2022

Operator

Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Brown-Forman's First Quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sue Perram, with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Sue Perram
Director of Investor Relations, Brown-Forman

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's first quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events, or otherwise.

This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the first quarter fiscal year 2023, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations, are contained in the press release and investor presentation. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. As we began fiscal 2023, our momentum continued, and we delivered another quarter of double-digit top line growth on both a reported and organic basis. We experienced strong consumer demand driven by increased travel and tourism, the gradual reopening of the on-premise internationally, as well as sustained premiumization trends. In addition, as we indicated on our last conference call, in the first quarter, we benefited from an increase in distributor inventories as we continue to recover from supply chain disruptions and constraints that began impacting our results in the prior fiscal year. Supply chain disruptions continued to affect our business during the first quarter of fiscal 2023. While our glass supply improved, overall supply chain logistics and transportation continued to be constrained, which impacted our route to market and increased our costs.

As some headwinds turned to tailwinds, our gross margin expanded with favorable price mix and the removal of tariffs more than offsetting increased costs and the negative effect of foreign exchange. This improvement in our gross margin enabled us to further invest behind our brands and our people while growing our bottom line ahead of the top line. Overall, I'm very pleased with the start to our fiscal year and remain thankful to our Brown-Forman employees for their continued focus on growing our brands throughout the world. This morning I'll provide a few more details on the quarter, and then I'll turn things over to Leanne. Our reported top line growth increased 11%, with organic growth increasing 17% after adjusting for foreign exchange headwinds.

Organic net sales growth in the quarter was driven by continued growth, strong growth for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, and the Jack Daniel's RTDs. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey remains the lead driver of our growth as the brand continued to deliver double-digit growth with an organic net sales increase of 21%, driven by strong consumer demand, higher pricing, and favorable channel mix. Second, our super premium American Whiskey portfolio increased organic net sales double digits. Woodford Reserve led this effort, growing organic net sales 39% and reaffirming the strength of the trademark. As glass supply constraints ease and we increase our bottling capacity, we were better able to meet consumer demand for Woodford Reserve. Also, in May, we launched the first super premium Jack Daniel's line extension in a quarter of a century.

The new Jack Daniel's Bonded Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's Triple Mash Blended Straight Whiskey are the first two permanent expressions in the brand's new bonded series, and they're off to a great start. The products are currently available in the U.S., France, the U.K., and Italy, and will continue to roll out internationally. These whiskeys are another opportunity for both our friends and new drinkers to explore and discover everything Jack Daniel's have to offer. Jack Daniel's RTDs, which grew organic net sales 17%, were the third largest contributor to overall company growth, fueled by the consumer trends of convenience and flavors. Leading this growth is Jack Daniel's and Cola, which gives us continued confidence in our global agreement with The Coca-Cola Company to deliver the iconic Jack and Coke cocktail as a branded, ready-to-drink adult beverage.

We're on track to launch the Jack Daniel's & Coca-Cola RTD beginning in late calendar 2022 in Mexico. We look forward to sharing more about this exciting agreement between two global American icons in the quarters and years to come as it expands to markets throughout the world. The rest of the Jack Daniel's family also delivered solid results, led by a double-digit organic net sales increase collectively from Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire, particularly in the U.S., as the glass supply constraints have eased. Beyond our American whiskey portfolio, organic net sales for our full-strength tequila portfolio declined 3%. Supply disruption, mainly related to glass for Herradura in the U.S. and Mexico, as well as difficult prior year comparisons in the U.S., were significant contributors to this performance.

Demand, particularly in the U.S., remains very strong, but glass supp ly challenges and continued stable but elevated costs for agave have slowed our profit growth. New Mix performed well as the RTD category in Mexico is growing and the brand is increasing share. Sonoma-Cutrer built upon its momentum as the continued reopening of the on-premise channel drove a double-digit increase in organic net sales. Our Scotch portfolio, led by Glendronach and Benriach, also produced strong results. Earlier this month, we announced an investment of over GBP 30 million in the Glendronach Distillery to significantly increase production capacity. Based on the latest IWSR data, global demand for the Glendronach has tripled since 2016, the year that we acquired the brand, as whiskey connoisseurs around the world discovered the distillery's award-winning single malts. We believe this investment will steward long-term future growth of the brand.

Leanne will go into depth about our results in each of the geographic divisions, but I was pleased to see broad-based growth across all geographic clusters and the travel retail channel. Also in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, our reported gross profit increased 13% and our organic gross profit growth was 21%, both ahead of the respective top-line growth rates. While we experienced some headwinds in the form of a negative foreign exchange effect, higher costs related to supply chain disruptions and higher input costs due to inflation, they were all more than offset by tailwinds, including favorable price mix and the removal of the EU and UK tariffs on American whiskey. This combination of headwinds and tailwinds resulted in 80 basis points of gross margin expansion in the quarter.

It was this time last year that we shared our plans to increase prices in the U.S. on the majority of our brand portfolio as part of an overall strategy to increase prices more consistently year after year. At the conclusion of the first quarter, nearly 90% of the price increases for fiscal 2023 have been executed, and we have seen retail shelf price changes reflected in almost 2/3 of the United States. Based on Nielsen data, Brown-Forman remains a price leader with 2.7% pricing growth, outpacing total distilled spirits of around 2%. We continue to utilize our revenue growth management tools to evaluate pricing opportunities, not only in the U.S., but also internationally. We believe the health and relevance of our brands, as well as our continued brand-building investments, will allow us to successfully implement our long-term pricing strategy.

In summary, we had a strong start to the fiscal year and remain optimistic as we look ahead, even as the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment remains volatile and uncertain. This optimism is grounded in our success in both the short and long term. We've been through challenging times and conditions over the last three years, as well as the last 152 years. We've been tested, yet we've remained resilient. We have experienced adversity, yet we have continued to grow. Brown-Forman has endured because we have some of the most attractive spirits brands in some of the most desirable categories, and we continue to innovate and expand our portfolio. We've thrived because of the bold and diverse perspectives of our people, which allow us to think creatively, innovate constantly, and grow consistently.

I wanna thank each and every one of them for delivering the results that we are sharing with you today. They give our company character and complexity, purpose and perseverance, agility and authenticity, and I am greatly appreciative. With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne, and she'll provide more details on our first quarter results.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. As Lawson reviewed our headlines for the quarter, I will provide additional details on our business results and our outlook for fiscal 2023. First, I will share our top-line results by geographic cluster. Developed international markets collectively delivered strong organic net sales growth, up double digits for the quarter. An increase in tourism and a return to the on-premise channel fueled broad-based growth across the markets despite continued supply chain challenges. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey was the largest contributor to growth, driven by Germany, Spain, and Austria. Belgium also contributed to the growth as it has seen solid momentum since transitioning to own distribution in January of 2022. Jack Daniel's Ready- to- Drink momentum continued with double-digit growth led by Germany and Australia.

Consumers' desire for convenience and interest in the Ready- to- Drink category remains high in these markets, and we are gaining share. Aligned with our strategic priority of increasing focus on our premium and super premium portfolio, our emerging brands model that we recently began extending to some international markets delivered very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by Glendronach, el Jimador, and Woodford Reserve. Collectively, our emerging international markets continue to rebound with very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by strong organic growth from Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, particularly in Turkey, Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, and Chile. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey grew organic net sales double digits led by Chile, where the brand has more than doubled, and New Mix growing strong double digits in Mexico.

Growth was partially offset by lower volumes of Herradura in Mexico as the brand faced supply chain constraints and year-over-year declines in Russia due to the suspension of our commercial operations beginning in March of 2022. The U.S. business remains strong, growing organic net sales 7%. This growth builds upon the 19% organic net sales growth delivered in the first quarter of fiscal 2022, which was fueled by the initial reopening of the on-premise channel. Woodford Reserve led the growth for the first quarter with a positive impact from higher pricing and higher volumes as supply and capacity constraints eased. Also benefiting from an improved supply chain environment, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire experienced volumetric gains. Growth was partially offset by lower volumes of Korbel and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, which both lapped double-digit comparison in the same prior year period.

Despite the supply chain challenges, we estimate a net increase in distributor inventories positively impacted net sales. Although even with the increase in the quarter, we believe distributor inventory levels remain below their pre-pandemic levels. This is due in large part to transportation and logistics constraints, as well as increased consumer demand. We continue to monitor consumer mobility trends and based on data from OpenTable and Google Mobility, the on-premise trends have continued to hover around pre-pandemic levels. This shift to the on-premise is continuing to impact off-premise takeaway trends as consumers have made the gradual return to restaurants and bars. Our year-over-year takeaway trends have also been adversely impacted by supply chain constraints for brands such as Gentleman Jack and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple.

Finally, the travel retail channel continued its strong rebound, growing organic net sales 85%, led by increased Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey volume as international airline travel and the cruise business accelerated in the May through July period. Our business in this channel has not yet fully recovered to pre-COVID levels, but continues to close the gap. As Lawson shared the details of our gross margin expansion for the quarter, I will now turn to our operating expenses. Organic advertising expenses in this quarter compared to the same prior year period grew at a higher rate than our top line growth, largely due to the timing of our increased investments in the United States to support Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Herradura, the launch of Jack Daniel's Bonded and Triple Mash, and Woodford Reserve.

Our organic SG&A investment increased high single digits, driven primarily by higher compensation-related expenses and the investment behind our people to support our business needs in a post-pandemic environment while continuing to leverage new ways of working. In total, reported and organic operating income grew 19% and 32% respectively in the first quarter of fiscal 2023. These results, combined with a decrease in our effective tax rate, resulted in a 30% diluted earnings per share increase to $0.52 per share. Finally, to our fiscal 2023 outlook. We continue to be optimistic as we look ahead, even amidst the current volatility and uncertainty of the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

We believe our headwinds and tailwinds will remain largely the same through the remainder of our fiscal year, and the strength of our portfolio of brands, supported by strong consumer demand and our strategic investments, will enable continued growth. Therefore, we are reiterating our full year fiscal 2023 guidance. With the start of a new fiscal year, we have now cycled against the more volatile months of the pandemic and believe we are seeing trends begin to stabilize. We remain confident in the collective strength of our U.S. developed and emerging international markets, along with the travel retail channel. We anticipate our results should continue to benefit from the continued return of tourism and the gradual reopening of the international on-premise channel, along with stronger pricing and innovation. We do remain cautious given the potential impact of inflation and rising energy prices on consumer spending.

I also want to reiterate that the seasonality of our fiscal 2023 results will be impacted by the abnormal seasonality of our fiscal 2022 shipments due to supply chain disruptions. As you will recall, in the first half of fiscal 2022, distributor inventories did not increase ahead of the important holiday season, as is typical, and we experienced stronger shipments in the second half of fiscal 2022 as glass supply challenges began to ease. In the first half of fiscal 2023, we expect distributor inventories to continue to return to more normalized levels. Therefore, we expect our growth rate in the first half to benefit from the net change in distributor inventory. Our second half results will lap the increase in the net change in distributor inventory related to the rebuilding of our inventory position in the prior year period.

As it relates to our fiscal 2023 costs, the removal of the EU and UK tariffs on American whiskey remains a significant tailwind, while we continue to expect input cost inflation to remain a headwind. Also cost related, our glass supply position has improved, though some challenges remain for some of our brands, particularly Herradura. We are continuing to partner with our current glass suppliers as well as add new suppliers to address these constraints. Similar to many other CPG companies, the overall supply chain, particularly transportation, logistics, and freight, continues to be challenging. While we are actively working to navigate these challenges and their impact, we do believe supply chain disruption will remain a headwind for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Based on these headwinds and tailwinds, we are reiterating our reported gross margin guidance for it to expand slightly for the full year as our trajectory of expansion continues. Also related to our supply chain, we constantly search to identify continuous improvement opportunities to optimize both our supply chain and its related costs. As we have shared with you during many calls, we have been progressing various initiatives to address the challenges related to the cost of wood. One such initiative has led us to the recent announcement regarding the decision to sell our Stevenson Mill in Alabama and Jackson Mill in Ohio to Independent Stave Company. This sale is a part of a long-term agreement between Brown-Forman and Independent Stave Company to allow for the expansion and diversification of our supply chain network. Independent Stave Company is a dynamic, family-owned cooperage company and is committed to environmental sustainability in its operations.

All of its existing mills are Sustainable Forestry Initiative certified, and Independent Stave, like Brown-Forman, is a founding member of the White Oak Initiative to support the long-term sustainability of white oak forests. Although divesting part of our business is never an easy decision, there are significant advantages to this partnership, including broader-based sourcing, continuous improvement initiatives, and cost savings from economies of scale. We are also pleased that all employees impacted by the agreement will be offered positions with Independent Stave. It is important to note we will continue to own and operate our Clifton mill in Clifton, Tennessee, and both our Brown-Forman and Jack Daniel's cooperages. For the last component of our outlook, the outlook for operating expenses remains the same.

In addition to our philosophy of growing the investment behind our brands at a rate similar to our top line growth, as we have stated many times that when the EU and UK tariffs on American whiskey were removed, we would reinvest a portion of the relief back behind our brands. We are very pleased that in fiscal 2023, we are now executing against this additional investment behind our brands. As we shared last quarter, we will also invest behind our people and expect a continued rebound of discretionary spend to support our business needs in a post-pandemic environment. Based on these expectations, we currently expect our organic net sales and organic operating income to grow in the mid-single digits range for the full fiscal year. We still expect our fiscal 2023 effective tax rate to be in the range of about 22%-23%.

Lastly, we have noted the impact of foreign exchange on our reported results. The dollar continues to strengthen against many major currencies. Most notably, we are seeing the negative effect of the appreciation of the dollar against the euro and the Turkish lira. The guidance we provide is on an organic basis, which excludes the impact of foreign exchange. If we were to take the rates where they are today against the dollar for the remainder of the fiscal year, foreign exchange would be a headwind for us in fiscal 2023 on a reported basis. In summary, and as Lawson stated, we have had a strong start to fiscal 2023, delivering double-digit top and bottom line growth on both a reported and organic basis.

We remain optimistic as we look ahead and are confident in our ability to build upon this momentum and deliver consistent long-term growth despite near-term challenges and uncertainties. We believe our brands and our people are resilient as our results continue to reflect. As we often say, there is nothing better in the market than Brown-Forman. This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder to ask your question, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Andrea Teixeira
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Thank you for taking my question. Good morning. I wanted to just first of all congratulate you on the earnings. Just as you had this 5% positive impact, which was called out in the last earnings call in the first quarter. It seems as if like the remainder of your fiscal year would then be the risks because of this strong number. Do you expect that inventory rebuild to phase out in the second quarter fiscal, or you still have that benefit in your view? I know the TR numbers would still continue to be positive, but if you can elaborate a little bit more between consumption and the depletions. Thank you.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Hi, Andrea, this is Leanne. We are continuing to evaluate the timeline to get back to normalization of our distributor inventories. Since the last fiscal year, and again, we talked about in our prepared remarks, in the second half, we began making significant progress on in rebuilding inventories. We're continuing to work very hard to rebuild those inventories, but at the same time, we're continuing to experience very strong consumer demand. At the same time, we've also launched a new innovation. While we are working to improve our inventory position, and you can see through the net increase in distributor inventory change that we are making progress, but we are facing challenges and strong demand. We'll come back to you.

We'll know more as we get into the second quarter to understand kind of what our exact timeline looks like. We do continue to see benefit in the first quarter, as you stated. From a glass supply perspective, you know, supply chain in general, we expect to be a headwind for the fiscal year. Our glass supply has continued to improve, you know, with our current supplier increasing capacity. We've broadened our supplier base. The Jack Daniel's facility is still bottling at record pace. But as Lawson noted in prepared remarks, we continue to face challenges for some brands and some sizes, and particularly for this quarter, it's Herradura, and we have some capacity strengths in the current supply chain. We're addressing that currently by expanding our supplier base.

As we noted, kind of one of the challenges that will impact us through the remainder of the fiscal year is our ability to move the product into market through logistics and supply, and freight constraints because there is a high demand for the equipment. There's an imbalance of the equipment around the world, and again, that's coming with associated costs. In the U.S., which is our home market and our largest market, where we produce the vast majority of our product, we still face driver challenges and equipment challenges. Net-net, we're making progress, and we are working to replenish it. It does remain below pre-pandemic levels, but we're encouraged by the strong consumer demand. Lawson?

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Yeah. I mean, I think, let me add a little bit to it because it seems like glass supply, I mean, this has been a major problem for us for a year now. We actually first started talking about this, it was this quarter a year ago, when we first really gave some detail on our glass supply situation. Fast-forward a year, I do think it's worth reviewing because it almost feels like every question we're gonna get asked this morning, glass supply is part of the answer. But a year ago, we really prioritized Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, so Core Black Label, you know, to allocate our immediate needs to Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, as really the on-premise was opening up not only in the United States, but around the world.

We really prioritized Tennessee Whiskey to the detriment of practically every other brand in our portfolio. As the year went along, our demand has been very strong. I mean, demand for Tennessee Whiskey, which we believe is either the largest or certainly one of the largest on-premise brands in the world, the demand has just been outstanding, quite honestly. We had a big year last year, and it continued on through the first quarter of this year. To, as I said, brands like Gentleman Jack, the flavors, and now most recently our tequila brands, have all suffered for it. We've caught up with Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey for the most part. I mean, it's taken a little longer because of the strong demand, but it's doing well.

Woodford Reserve had a great quarter, so we begin to replenish the inventories of Woodford around the world. Same thing on Old Forester. Gentleman Jack and flavors are not caught up yet, but they're getting better, but you'll see those trends improve in the upcoming few quarters. Then as we said, Herradura really suffered over the last quarter. That was a bit of a surprise, but you know, the Herradura for one point to also make, Herradura grew by 90% in quarter one last year. Tough comps is also part of that answer, but certainly the brand is suffering under our glass supply shortage that we're working very hard to try to fix, but it's not there yet.

Andrea Teixeira
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

It's super helpful. If I can squeeze just one question on how consumers have been receiving the price increase, and It doesn't look like you're seeing any down trade, but this is the topic that we obviously spoke to all the companies this earnings season. If there's any price elasticity you've seen on the trade that investors should be aware of.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Yeah. I mean, I look, we have pushed through our price increases. I think we said sort of 90% of the price increase is already reflected on the shelf. We haven't seen the trade down. Now, I'd express a little caution in looking at our trends and then extrapolate those to sort of macro trends because of our glass situation. That dominates over any sort of, you know, trade down or lack thereof really because it's not showing through in our numbers. When we look at TDS, we're not really seeing it. This is obviously it's a U.S. comment, but you're not seeing it really in the data there either. You know, elasticities, I think the biggest piece of an elasticity question always is what are your competitors doing? The competitors are also going up.

For the first time in, you know, I'll say a decade, you're seeing some pretty good pricing throughout the industry, and you're not seeing a lot of pushback. We're able to get prices through. We're getting them through the retailers. It's on the shelf, and consumers are still buying it, feeling pretty good. You know, we use the term affordable luxury a lot. And I do think spirits is an affordable luxury where consumers, you know, they prioritize that bottle of Jack Daniel's. To the detriment of a lot of other consumer products, you know, you've seen a lot of the big retailers in the U.S. that have struggled with inventories.

We're kind of the opposite, where we don't have enough inventory out there, and it's pretty healthy. You know, it's a good situation in that the demand is still there.

Andrea Teixeira
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay, helpful. Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS. Your line is now open.

Peter Grom
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Hey, good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. I kind of wanted to follow up on Andrea's question just, you know, around the guidance and just given, you know, the strong start to the year from a top line and margin perspective. You know, it just, you know, the guidance seems to imply a pretty meaningful slowdown from here. I guess I just would be curious, is that simply just conservatism given the uncertainty on many fronts, or is there kind of something you're seeing more real time, either in the U.S. or other markets around the world that's giving you some concern here?

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Hi, Peter, how are you? It's nice to hear from you. It's been a while. From building on what Lawson said from our inventory perspective, we really started, as glass supply began to ease in our second half of last year, our shipments were kind of above our depletion level, trying to get our inventory rebuilt. Yes, we've had a strong start to our year, and we know that next quarter will be comping one of our lowest performing quarter of fiscal 2022. Then at the end of fiscal 2022, we had a 4-point benefit from those shipments.

When we have talked about, we will have a strong first half of our 2023, and that we will have to comp that 4-point benefit that we saw in the second half. We also, again, as we said in our prepared remarks, you know, we do remain cautious about how inflation and rising energy costs are going to impact our consumers. You know, will there be any macroeconomic or geopolitical events that, similar to last March, when we suspended our business? Again, that'll be an impact in FY 2023, is the absence of our business in Russia. From a cost perspective, we've talked about this a bit. You know, we're facing challenges, both easing on the glass supply, but then now moving to logistics and transportation.

It'll be our ability to get our product to market and to consumers, which we believe is possible, but it's gonna come at an increased cost, some of which we plan because we plan for inflation every year. But one of the things that is different for us is that, you know, as we talk about inflation, with the removal of the EU and UK tariffs on American whiskey, unlike many others, we'll, that will help us mute the impact of inflation and cost that we have. So I don't necessarily. It's very early in the year. There's a lot of year to go, and a lot can unfold ahead of us. We're definitely optimistic and off to a strong start. But we know we have a strong back half of last year to comp.

Peter Grom
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

No, thank you for that. That's super helpful. I just maybe following a different topic, just, you know, the Coca-Cola and Jack Daniel's partnership. Can you maybe just provide some more background on the partnership? Why both parties decided now is kind of the right time? I know, I think, Lawson, you mentioned a Mexico launch in the fourth quarter. Just any initial thoughts around timing in the U.S. and, you know, contribution to top line growth versus maybe cannibalization versus, you know, for the existing, you know, ready to drink portfolio.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Sure. Look, we are behind the scenes working through all of that right now. There's obviously a ton of work that goes into launching a new product on the scale of what this is about, and you're correct. We are looking at, it's only a couple of months away from launching in Mexico. What we're gonna do, I think, or prefer to do is push this question off for another quarter. We will be more transparent with you all as we move into the rest of the fiscal year. We are still working behind the scenes on the cadence of launches, the level of investment, all the everything that goes with effectively a new product launch. You know, on a positive side, our Jack Daniel's and Cola, so not the Coke, but Jack Daniel's and Cola is flying.

I mean, that business is still really, really strong. That's part of the trick to this launch, is how we remove those products from the market and replace it with Jack and Coke. It's a little more complicated than maybe that might sound, but this is still a very healthy business. There's a lot of, particularly in the U.S., there's a lot of competitors, not so much in the Coke side of things, but I mean, there's a lot of RTD interest these days, and there's a handful of brands that are doing really, really well. We feel really good that this thing, once we get it out there in the market, you know, we'll be ready to you know, drive some pretty significant demand. I think we're gonna wait another quarter before we sort of release a lot of those details.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

The only thing I would add to that is we're really excited about the numerous opportunities that we believe that this product will have from a geographic expansion perspective and our ability to gain share with it as well.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Yeah. Obviously, the Coca-Cola system is so big, they cover the world. You know, we haven't even offered Jack Daniel's and Cola in many parts of the world. It's gonna be an exciting thing for this company, and we're looking forward to it, knowing that most of that growth is really gonna fall in calendar 2023.

Peter Grom
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

No, thanks so much for that color. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein. Your line is now open.

Nadine Sarwat
Equity research Analyst, Bernstein

Hi, everybody. I gotta kick off with my usual question on pricing. I remember on the last conference call, we discussed how you'd taken broad pricing across the board in the U.S. Great to hear that. I think you said 90% of that pricing for this fiscal year has gone through. Can you give us an update on your pricing strategy outside of the U.S., though?

Have you taken incremental pricing? This is especially in light of that inflationary environment. One final question. Jack Daniel's Apple, I know you mentioned flavors being deprioritized, but even if we take into account the changes in distributor inventory, we're at a fall of about 8% at an underlying level. Is there anything else we should bear in mind for the weakness in the quarter for this brand, or is this a one-off because of those supply chain issues? Thanks.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Yeah. I'll take pricing a bit, and then maybe you can comment on Tennessee Apple itself. I mean, yes. Now the pricing strategy that we are implementing is global. It's not just the U.S., and it's on kind of similar numbers. Europe has been a very difficult pricing environment for a long time. We finally pushed through, successfully pushed through last year, and we'll continue to do it again this year. I call it that low single digit pricing, that sort of 2%-3% range is something I wanna see for the foreseeable future. I mean, every year, not, we're not trying to go up 10% in one quarter and then back off a little bit.

It's trying to go slow and steady, and you know, that's worked. It's worked so far. As I mentioned to the earlier question, I think a lot of it has to do with other brands are also going up too. We're not seeing this sort of negative reaction either from the retailers necessarily. I mean, there's still challenges to partner with them to get prices up. The environment is more conducive right now for most, you know, for many brands in our industry, not only Brown-Forman's, to go up. Can we talk about Apple just a little bit?

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

To your Apple question, Nadine, it's really in the process of lapping the final phase of its international launch last year. Demand has been high, and as Lawson mentioned, you know, the prioritization of our products with the constraints that we have, it has been negatively impacted by that. But we continue to believe that its launch and its connectivity with consumers remains very high.

Nadine Sarwat
Equity research Analyst, Bernstein

Got it. Thank you. If I could just clarify on that pricing, have you taken pricing yet outside of the U.S., or is that something you're hoping to do?

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Oh, yeah.

Nadine Sarwat
Equity research Analyst, Bernstein

You have.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

No, no. We did it. Yeah, we did it last, kind of last cycle. It would've been, I guess, Q2 for the most part, Q2, Q3 of last year, where the international prices all went through.

Nadine Sarwat
Equity research Analyst, Bernstein

Got it. You're planning on hopefully implementing similar pricing this fiscal year?

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Correct.

Nadine Sarwat
Equity research Analyst, Bernstein

Got it. Thank you very much. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Vivien Azer with Cowen. Your line is now open.

Vivien Azer
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Cowen

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. Sorry to go back to the glass supply, but Lawson, I think you've given us permission to dig in on that. So it seems like, you know, Herradura was clearly the surprise. As I reflect back on your commentary around glass supply issues, last fiscal year, and just looking at Herradura's results where you rightly call out, you know, a very tough comp, how is it that Herradura was more immune to glass supply issues in fiscal 2022? What changed this quarter? Thanks.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Well, I mean, it's just where the glass is coming from and which plants are supplying the individual brands. Herradura is one-

Vivien Azer
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Cowen

What changed this quarter? Thanks.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

I mean, it's just where the glass is coming from and which plants are supplying the individual brands. Herradura is one of the most important brands in our portfolio, so it would've gotten some level of priority, particularly Herradura in the U.S. At the end of the, you know, as the demand, as I said, was 90% in Q1, the demand for several of our brands, and not only Herradura, but that would be the most obvious one, where the demand was higher than what we were forecasting. You know, you can keep that going for a little while, but eventually that runs into a problem.

That problem showed its head, you know, over the last quarter, couple of quarters really in Herradura. We are madly trying to find alternatives and find additional supply, but it's challenging. It really is. Okay, that's helpful. Maybe just to follow up on that, with the underlying gross margin disclosure, I was wondering, Leanne, if you could just kind of unpack even just like order of magnitude, the 180 basis points of cost pressure that you saw, like, how much of that was glass versus agave versus other? Thanks.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

The largest driver of the 180 basis points of higher input cost is a portion of that is glass pricing. Glass prices as we, you know, we have the commodity inflation on natural gas. I would say a bigger piece of it right now is corn and agave, and I'll explain the agave piece in a moment. But for corn, for the corn futures, they've moderated throughout Q1. It's stabilizing as we look out for FY 2023, but it is stabilizing at a place that it's approximately 20% higher than last year. This is where in Q2, we'll know more about the harvest, as it has been impacted by the weather, what the quality of it will be, supply, demand, and again, the harvest will be coming in soon.

Another thing associated corn is the increased freight cost due to fuel. For us, agave is going to be a little bit of a headwind this year. Now, I wanna make sure that I'm clear, the external agave prices have remained stable between 27 and 29 MXN per kilo. Right now we're seeing prices at the top end of that range. For Brown-Forman, it's going to be the mix of what percentage we source from the external market versus what we have internally grown ourselves. With the balance between what our inventory of agaves are that are ready to be harvest versus our demand, we're sourcing externally at a bit of a higher mix than what we would have last year. There's a bit of that change impact there. The pricing for external is stable.

Really for us, it's, I would say, corn and agave are the two biggest. We'll know more for corn as we get into the harvest. We do have, you know, small inflationary increases on the cost of wood and, again, natural gas is above it. Is there anything else I can provide to you on that?

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

No, that's really helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Pitcher with Redburn. Your line is now open.

Chris Pitcher
Equity Research Analyst, Redburn

Thanks very much. I have a couple of questions on extending the Jack Daniel's brand. It sounds from your comments, Lawson, that you're still comfortable with the flavor extension strategy, and there's more growth to go for in apple. It feels like honey perhaps has achieved critical mass. Should we expect you to be working on further extensions beyond apple? Or do you think the flavor story is perhaps playing out, and the focus is more now towards extending the premium extension for Jack Daniel's?

And as a follow-up to that, I mean, looking at Bonded and Triple Mash, what sort of price premium do you think Jack Daniel's can move to and still achieve meaningful volumes? Because you have tried to take the brand up the price ladder before, and it runs into resistance. Are you targeting existing Jack Daniel's consumers to trade them up, or are you now going after more premium whiskey consumers? Thanks.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Well, to the second half of your question, the answer is both. The Bonded series is, say, we haven't done, you know, an ultra premium or super premium line extension in a long, long time, really since Gentleman Jack and some of the single barrel expressions over the years. We feel really good about the initial takeaway on these innovations has been very strong. We feel, you know, we feel very good about that. It's getting really positive reviews and, you know, at that sort of $29- $30- $31 price points, there is a real market for Jack Daniel's consumers, and so we, you know, we feel pretty good about that.

As far as the flavor side of things, I mean, certainly Honey, you know, Honey's been a home run for this company over the last 10 years. Apple’s experiencing its own sort of issues, not only lapping some, you know, the launching, but the Apple launch has, just the timing, whether you're talking about the U.S. or international, was just terrible because it was right in the middle of, you know, right as the pandemic was hitting, and that was a tough time to introduce new products. I do feel that Apple’s gonna, you know, have a healthy future and will do well. We do not have plans for another flavor, you know, in the near future.

You know, I'll never say never, but we're gonna focus on these more premium line extensions for now and the core brand, the core Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, which is, you know, having growth like it hasn't seen in a, you know, in a number of years. We've now, you know, it's gonna be several years in a row of growth on growth, in ways that, you know, we feel pretty good about. Yeah.

I think we'll be slow on any flavor extensions, and you're gonna see more advertising behind these, the Bonded series. It's already, you know, we're already promoting it, not price promoting it, but television and digital and all the different ways that we communicate in a big way on these brands. It's kind of exciting to see that there's a nice market for some premium extensions off the Jack Daniel's brand.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

The only thing that I would build onto that is, you know, when we think about premium extension for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Gentleman Jack is now over 750,000 cases, and we still believe it's very early in its international growth opportunity. For me, I would say higher than 750,000 cases.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Yeah, I mean, keep in mind, Gentleman Jack too. I mean, as we look back, you know, if we fast-forward a couple of years and then look back over everything that happened over this glass shortage, Gentleman Jack is probably gonna be the brand that, you know, I don't know if it suffered the most, but it was rough. I mean, the Nielsen numbers are nowhere indicative of what we think the true underlying demand is for Gentleman Jack. It's just, the brand has just taken it on the chin last year as, you know, it really didn't have any supply. Excuse me.

Chris Pitcher
Equity Research Analyst, Redburn

Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Stephen Powers
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Oh, thanks very much. I had two questions. The first one is on the U.S. If I back out the trade inventory dynamics and get to the metric formerly known as underlying growth, I think we end up with like a 2% growth number in the U.S. in the quarter, which was a bit light of our expectation. I just wanted to get your sense for you know how what you know what that signifies for sort of that underlying normalized demand in the U.S., if it was in line with your expectations and how you expect it to trend from here.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Well, first of all, what did you say, formerly known as? That is,

Stephen Powers
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yes

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

One of the better lines I've heard in a while. Look, the U.S. business. Our international business is still very much dominated by Jack Daniel's. The international demand was very, very strong, and we were able to supply it. The U.S. is much more diversified, and brands like Woodford and Old Forester. Basically, everything other than Jack Daniel's, you've got such a massive, you know, you've got a very broad portfolio that was constrained by glass supply. I also think something that I'm just not sure I appreciated a year ago, but the U.S. on-premise opened up quicker than the rest of the world. We're lapping now that reopening. Q1 would have been, you know, a heavy reopening period for the U.S. The international markets were more like Q2 or, you know, into Q3.

Some of it was just the comps too. Once again, the answer to everything is glass supply and tough comps impacted the U.S. business. You know, look, I look at our U.S. business, I mean, Woodford, I don't know, wasn't a U.S. number. I guess it was a global number, but still being at +39% is a huge growth number. We've got to get our tequilas going again. I mean, that certainly was not a you know, that was a negative for the quarter. But still, you know, still feeling pretty good about our U.S. business and the way it has trended over the last few years. Our U.S. business has been elevated now really throughout the pandemic.

If you go back and step back a little bit and look over a longer time period, you know, three-year CAGR or a four-year CAGR, you're gonna see our U.S. business has been growing more like 7%. It's been pretty steady, but it's been higher than our historical average. It's more like 7% as opposed to a really long-term average, you know, more like 5% or 6%. U.S. business is still really healthy.

Stephen Powers
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Yeah, that's good perspective. Thank you. I guess the second question, if I could, was just going back to, I think it was Andrea's question at the start around inventory dynamics since the second quarter. I may have misheard or misinterpreted the answer, but it seemed like there was a bit more uncertainty from your answer in terms of whether or not and to what degree, you know, that trade inventory rebuilding would be a continued tailwind in the second quarter.

I guess my perspective is, given what we've seen in the first quarter and, you know, acknowledging constraints, but seemingly improved supply and just what you're lapping last year with sort of the teeth of the supply constraints, I would have expected, you know, a more, you know, kind of, you know, affirmative answer that trade inventory dynamics would be more of a definitive tailwind in the second quarter. I just wanted to play that back to you and see if I was wrong or if I misinterpreted what you had said earlier. Thank you.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Yes. I mean, it comes back to we're continuing to evaluate the timeline for the normalization of our distributor inventory because we've got multiple factors at play at the same time. Our glass supply position is strengthening. Our facilities are bottling at record paces. We're getting inventory, finished cases produced that are seeing challenges to get to market through supply chain, but we have multiple strategies in place to get the cases there. We are experiencing very strong consumer demand. As we believe we have inventory to meet demand is increasing. At the same time, we are launching new innovations, you know, our new innovation of the Bonded series and getting that to market.

We know when we started really January, but the second half of FY 2022, we began producing at a higher level and moving cases into the market. That is continuing, but the rebuild is potentially going to take a longer period of time, depending on how consumer demand changes.

Stephen Powers
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Okay.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Does that help?

Stephen Powers
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah, it does. To the extent that you're having, you know, the organic growth will either benefit from. You've got your supply getting stronger. I think you were strengthening. You know, if consumer demand is strong, that will show up in sort of, you know.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

That would show up in consumption, and if demand is, you know, a little bit softer, allowing you to replenish inventory would show up in, you know, kind of the trade inventory build either way. Okay, I understand. I'll stop rambling. Thank you so much.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Noah Erni with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Kevin Grundy
Managing Director, Jefferies

Hey, good morning, everyone. It's actually Kevin Grundy here. Congrats on the strong result. I know we covered a lot of ground. Hopefully, these will be fairly quick. Leanne, on FX, fully acknowledge that you guys do not guide. My question's on transactional FX, so maybe you can just help us think about that. We can do our own modeling on top line. Just thinking about the flow through to operating profit, should we be thinking about the same transactional impact to operating income? That is to say, it was a 6% impact, headwind in the top line of the quarter. It was a 16% impact to profit, so more than 2.5 x sort of multiplier, if you will.

Is that the right way to think about, the impact to profit for the year? Is that something you can comment on?

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

As we would think about this, starting with, it is the transactional impact largely related to the euro and the lira. You're exactly right on the impact. For the shape of it for the full year, I don't wanna comment on that because, again, we started in calendar year 2023, which again would have hit some of the back half of our FY 2022. We started to see some challenges, you know, with our headwinds from FX. That will. You know, we'll be going against that a bit in the latter half of FY 2023. Again, it's transactional. We don't see any meaningful, you know, remeasurement from a translational perspective. You know, we've just been clear to say that if we were to assume the rates remain where they are today, it's gonna be a headwind.

I would hesitate to say shape wise it'll be consistent throughout the years. It will be more consistent than not. It's going to depend when we get into the back half of the year how we're lapping that.

Kevin Grundy
Managing Director, Jefferies

Thank you for that. A quick one. We've talked about this on the call before, just balance sheet and uses of cash. The debt leverage continues to creep lower. Leanne, you talked about some asset sales at the end of your prepared remarks. I'm not sure of the magnitude of that. Maybe you can comment on how we should think about it. It'd be good to get your updated thoughts on where your debt leverage is now. Even taking into account, you know, elevated levels of CapEx for the year, your debt leverage would still continue to creep lower. I'd love to get your thoughts on targeted debt leverage.

As we think about uses of excess cash, where is the bias today between buybacks versus perhaps one-time dividends? Of course, there's a long history of Brown-Forman of those sort of considerations. Your updated thoughts there, Leanne, would be appreciated. Thank you.

Leanne Cunningham
VP and CFO, Brown-Forman

Okay, great. I'll start with the divestiture of our two Stave mills. Again, this is about optimizing our strategic sourcing model. We think there's going to be. This gives us a broader base of sourcing continuous improvement initiatives, that will ultimately result in cost savings with economies of scale. Now, the impact of that, from a capital perspective, it wouldn't not be material. But we do from a barrel cost, wood cost perspective, we do expect to start seeing favorable cost at the back end of this kind of Q4 of this year. But with our aging process and the associated accounting for that, it will take a period of time before we recognize that. That's. I just wanted to comment on that part first.

As it related to capital, again, we don't typically talk about a target, but what is really important for us is that we maintain flexibility in the strength of our balance sheet. We know that we are facing supply chain challenges. There are geopolitical environmental events that we also want to hedge against, but we also wanna be well positioned to take advantage of any potential investment opportunities. We keep our balance sheet at a place where we could capture those opportunities and hedge against any of the risks.

Lawson Whiting
President and CEO, Brown-Forman

Yeah, I don't think there's much of a change really in our capital allocation strategy. I mean, we're always gonna look to invest in our business first. You know, acquisitions are difficult in this industry, but, you know, we're always looking. You know, share buybacks are, you know, the current administration has made them maybe a little bit less attractive, with some of the excise taxes that they're posting. We'll always balance the, you know, the share buyback and special dividend question. You know, it's only been, what has it been? eight or nine months since we did a special dividend, and so there's not pressure to necessarily to do one of those really soon.

I think just at the end of the day, we feel like we're good and smart, and we have a good capital allocation strategy, and we're really not changing it.

Kevin Grundy
Managing Director, Jefferies

Very good. Thank you both.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we've run out of time for questions. I'd like to hand the conference back over to Sue Perram for any closing comments.

Sue Perram
Director of Investor Relations, Brown-Forman

Thank you, and thank you to Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's first quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us. We look forward to presenting next week in person at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference and hope to see many of you. For those of you that are unable to attend, the presentation will be made available as a webcast that will be accessible via our Brown-Forman corporate website under the section titled Investors Events and Presentations. We wish everyone an enjoyable weekend and hope you will join us in raising a glass on September second as we say happy birthday to our founder, George Garvin Brown. With that, this concludes our call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

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