Centurion Mine, it's a name that really resonates with ensuring we invest in our people first and foremost. For Peabody, this would be the most important asset we have at this time, with the capital that we've outlaid to get this operation back up and running. It's clear testament to how much Peabody shareholders and the board believe in the project going forward. For us, it's one of the premium coking coals in the world. We have customers routinely ringing up, you know, "When are we gonna get this coal back in the market? How do we secure some?" So we've already got pre-orders ready when we kick off our longwall in 2026. Safety to us at Centurion is a core belief.
It's our number one value to make sure each and every person, including myself, are able to go home to their loved ones.
If you wanna learn more, you want to extend into the statutory roles from being an operator to a miner driver, I think here at Centurion, with the management team we have, can guide you anywhere.
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining today to listen to Peabody's Organic Growth Project Centurion. Formal remarks today will be from Peabody's President and CEO, Jim Grech, CFO, Mark Spurbeck, CMO, Malcolm Roberts, and our President of Global Operations, Mark Hathhorn. Also with us today for Q&A is Mike Carter, our Vice President of Australia Underground Operations. Today, we are excited to share a comprehensive update on Peabody's development at Centurion. After comments from our executive leadership team, we will take questions about this presentation and the Centurion project. You will find our statement on forward-looking information, as well as reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there, along with our public filings with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Jim.
Well, thanks, Karla, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today, and for your interest in Peabody and our Centurion Mine Complex. When I look at our company, we started back in 1883 in Chicago, and here we are, a 140 years later, ready to start the next chapter for our company, and starting out with the Centurion Mine Complex. And the timing of bringing this mine online is one that I feel is gonna create significant value for our shareholders. And why is that? Because we're feeding into a market that has growing demand but decreasing supply. And this supply demand dynamic is gonna go well into the next decade.
And we're feeding into this supply shortage and growing demand with a supply source that has the highest quality coal, it's very low cost, and due to the Wards Well acquisition that we did, has a very long reserve life. On top of that, you take the favorable logistics from the Bowen Basin, where our mine is at, and best suited to feed into where the demand is growing globally in Asia and India. You combine all these factors of the supply, demand, the quality of our resource, the timing of it coming online, in combination, I think it creates significant value for our shareholders. So to get into the detail on all of these areas, I'm gonna now start with turning it over to Malcolm Roberts, our Chief Marketing Officer, who's going to discuss the steelmaking coal markets and Centurion's place within it. Malcolm?
Thanks, Jim. As Jim said, I'm gonna talk about steelmaking coal and the role that Centurion Coal plays. I imagine that wherever you are listening or watching this call, you are surrounded by steel, in the high-rise office building, on the train, or even in your home with numerous household appliances. Metallurgical coal is an essential ingredient in blast furnace production of steel, making it one of the most widely used industrial materials on Earth. Centurion Coal quality attributes enable efficient coke and steel production, and when it is processed into coke, it has very low impurities, excellent strength, both in low and high temperatures, resulting in high reduction efficiency in the blast furnace. The high utilization value of Centurion Coal product means this coal is expected to achieve a high price point relative to other metallurgical coals.
Seaborne metallurgical coal annual demand is expected to grow by 44 million tons during the next 25 years. This growth in seaborne demand is predominantly attributable to a significant increase in blast furnace production of steel in India. As you can see on the slide, India's global share of blast furnace steel production grows from 5% in 2024 to 25% in 2050, requiring a 132% increase in the annual rate of India's seaborne metallurgical coal imports from 74 million tons in 2024 to 172 million tons in 2050. This shift in anticipated blast furnace production share is primarily attributable to a forecast decrease in the proportion of blast furnace steel production in China. Currently, China is essentially self-sufficient, with approximately 80% of metallurgical coal consumption coming from domestic mines.
The inverse is true for India, where India is well endowed with iron ore. However, suitable indigenous resources of metallurgical coal are scarce. When demand growth of metallurgical coal is broken out by grade, growth is most prevalent in hard coke, in the hard coking coal grade. Forecasts suggest that by early next decade, we'll start to see a shortfall of available hard coking coal volumes relative to demand, which is a result of resource depletion of some mines that are currently operating, coupled with growing seaborne import demand. The market will require new production capacity to meet the forecast demand profile. Around 45 million tons of new supply is required, that's per annum, by 2040. This is equivalent to a new project of Centurion scale coming to production every year during the 2030s. This grows to over 100 million tons by 2050.
Within this context, high-quality coking coal projects are anticipated to become increasingly rare, with new projects currently weighted towards weaker coking coals, enhancing the value of Centurion's coking coal properties. As explained earlier, the center of demand growth will come from India and Asia more generally. This demand dynamic will result in Australian coals being benefited by proximity relative to other supply regions such as the USA and Canada. Considering ocean freight rates to India over the past five years, USA and Canadian hard coking coals would face $21 per ton and $8 per ton of additional ocean freight costs relative to Australia, making Australian coals more competitive on a landed cost basis. Centurion product fits well within the premium low volatile hard coking coal category.
Premium low volatile hard coking coal is known as PLVHCC, and it is high yielding when converted to coke compared to USA high volatile h ard coking coals. PLVHCC is essential for coke makers to blend to the target range when they work to balance coke strength and yield as part of their blending activities. Furthermore, high-strength coke is essential for a high productivity blast furnace and high productivity coke making, enabling lower CO2 emissions per ton of hot metal produced. High quality premium low volatile hard coking coals are primarily exported from Australia and Canada. Allow me to go into the weeds a little bit here and provide some details of the compelling quality attributes of Centurion Coal, which include very high coke strength, which is primarily measured by a test called coke strength after reaction, CSR.
CSR is important because it measures the ability of coke to sustain forces that cause degradation of coke in the blast furnace because of friction and collision between bulk burden materials such as iron ore sinter, iron ore pellet, and cokes. A stronger coke enables a higher rate of reduction and less coke losses to fines, resulting in the highest utilization rate. Low ash, one of the lowest ash for this grade of coal. Coke produced from lower ash is more efficient and higher value. Furthermore, it results in less waste disposal. Low in phosphorus is another highly desirable characteristic, with Centurion product containing among the lowest levels in coking coals globally. This attribute is vitally important to steel makers, as phosphorus is a key contaminant in steelmaking that results in making steel brittle.
In most cases, phosphorus must be removed in steelmaking processes, and the removal is expensive and capability is limited. Centurion product is low in sulfur, assisting steel mills in meeting environmental standards while reducing treatment costs. Centurion Coal contains very high fluidity with a high level of net effective carbon. Fluidity is a property that is defined as a plastic property, that is best explained as a binder, that enables coke makers to blend lesser grade coal, which directly improves quality during the coking process. These attributes enhance the steelmaker's value and use when consuming this coal as a cornerstone of their blend. Furthermore, customers are known to pay premiums for coals with such desirable characteristics. Centurion is the newest house on best street in the premium low volatile hard coking coal neighborhood.
The premium low volatile hard coking coal comes from the same corridor located in the Bowen Basin, which contains the Moranbah Coal Measures. It places Centurion in a prestigious location next to BHP and Anglo American operations that mine the same seams, which contain arguably the best hard coking coals. Open mining tenures adjacent to the Centurion Mine, the only operating mines is BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, Goonyella Riverside Open Cut Mine, and Broadmeadow to the south. So you can see when it comes to steel making, Centurion premium hard coking coal possesses highly desirable attributes, a favored location, and compelling market fundamentals, making it an extremely attractive asset. Now I'll turn over to Mark Hathorn to talk about project development.
Thanks, Malcolm. I'm on slide fourteen. I just wanted to reflect on that picture. What a beautiful picture. Why? Beautiful blue sky, a world-class team, and a huge chunk of some of the best coal in the world, metallurgical coal in the world, and it's our first, first development coal from in June. We're making great progress with our development activities at Centurion. In the first half of the year, we successfully commissioned two continuous miner units and produced the first development coal. Thus far in the second half, we processed our first development coal through the preparation plant and expect the first coal shipment by the end of the quarter. We also expect to commission our third continuous miner in coming weeks to further accelerate our development activities. We continue to advance on time and on budget towards full-scale longwall production in March 2026.
At Peabody, we strive for safety and excellence in every aspect of our operations, and this is driven by the world-class team we've assembled at Centurion. Centurion's general manager and our VP of Australia Underground Operations each have over 25 years of underground mining and major project development experience, bringing a wealth of knowledge and expertise to Centurion. Having the right management team and support team is the difference maker. As we ramp up to full-scale longwall production, we continue to onboard operators and maintenance personnel to support underground development and preparation for longwall mining. With a new, exciting world-class project like Centurion, the buzz in the region and targeted recruitment have allowed for all key positions to be filled, and we continue to hire experienced miners to continue our development work ahead of schedule.
All required licenses and permits are in place for our longwall start in Centurion South District. Coal mining from Centurion North is approved by existing mining leases, but will require an amendment to the existing environmental permit. These amendments are a fairly routine exercise for our activities, and we don't see any problems for that amendment. Centurion has a large reserve of premium hard coking coal, with approximately 140 million tons and a long mine life of over 25 years. With a coal seam in excess of four meters, the GM Seam is known for its geological stability, providing a consistent and continuous coal face that minimizes operational disruptions. The uniformity of the seam, combined with the state-of-the-art, fit-for-purpose longwall, reduces the risks of operational variability. All of this allows for efficient mining and first quartile production cost.
To date, we're developing ahead of schedule, month after month. In August and September, we broke the mine record for the most meters from two continuous miners at any given point in the history of the mine back to 2015. We also more than doubled the number of meters we were scheduled to mine in those respective months. Very encouraging. To put that in perspective, in August, we were scheduled--we were forecast or scheduled to produce 427 m of drivage, and the team exceeded over 1,000 m. In September, with a power outage, a planned power outage with the power provider, the team still managed to get 967 m. So we've got two months where we've averaged right at a 1,040 m and substantially beat our forecast. We don't foresee any unexpected delays to get the first longwall coal.
We're on track and on budget to date. We have all the existing infrastructure in place that we will talk about shortly. The only potential delay would potentially be equipment delivery or unexpected maintenance. We've mitigated delays in late equipment delivery through the hire of an extra continuous miner, plus what I talked about before, the achievement of the development rates being way ahead of schedule. Centurion has designated districts, the southern panels and the northern panels. In the south, we have five panels to be extracted. They range in length from 1,100 m - 2,900 meters and around 20 million tons of reserves. The northern district consists of 24 panels, with lengths ranging from 1,100 m- 3,800 m in length, and this is over 120 million tons of mineable reserve.
Further, there are significant additional reserves in the area with the GLB-2 seam below us, not even included in these numbers. Also, a premium hard coking coal underneath, as I stated, underneath the GM Seam. On Slide 16, I'd like to stop and reflect on those pictures real quickly, because the infrastructure is really key to what we have here. The first picture there is our prep plant. I tell you, I would really, with the prices still, I'd hate to try to replace that thing. It's a real luxury we have to have that prep plant, mostly galvanized, and it's a solid plant. So it's a minor refurbishment for that plant. You see the picture of our new longwall there to the right, the new Cat longwall system, 153 shields.
You see our camp or our accommodation village for over 400 workers. There might be a nicer camp out there, but I haven't stayed in it in Queensland. We have a dedicated rail loop connected to the Goonyella Rail System. All personnel are either from nearby towns, and they drive in or out to the operations, or FIFO, Fly in, Fly out, from Brisbane, Queensland. Most employees reside at the Centurion Accommodation Village, which is located 19 km east of the mine. The type of mining equipment utilized is fit for purpose for the geological and mining conditions expected at Centurion, based on a long history of operating in the basin. The major mining equipment to be utilized includes the new Cat longwall, as I mentioned, with 153 shields and 3 Komatsu continuous miners and support equipment.
The slide includes a list of key equipment there also at the mine. While Centurion South is being developed, two development units will concurrently commence development of the main headings to access Centurion North longwall panels in 2025. Mining 101. Continuous miners are used to cut the entries for the mains and the gate roads. The coal is transported by shuttle cars to a feeder breaker, which reduces the size, mined, and gets it in a consistent form to be easily handled on the conveyor system. The continuous miner cuts and bolts. It's a miner bolter arrangement. It cuts and bolts simultaneously, increasing productivity and safety for the operators. Centurion has one set of Caterpillar longwall mining equipment, which is currently being stored on the surface in that picture I referenced.
Following the development of the southern panels, the longwall will be transported underground and installed to commence production, as I stated before, in March of 2026. Let's talk about the infrastructure that's in place, Slide 18. It's very key. Centurion's geographical proximity provides a significant logistical advantage with key supporting infrastructure. The infrastructure includes road access via highways and improved roads, access to both the Goonyella and Newlands rail systems, coal export terminals through Dalrymple Bay and Abbot Point, connection to high-voltage electricity grid that provides electricity to our existing facilities, and water supplied from the 15 GL capacity at the Burton Gorge Dam. Trains will be loaded at the mine and will travel 217 km to DBCT terminal, then loaded onto a conveyor or stockpiled. Surface logistics infrastructure are in place, and long-term transportation arrangements are covered under Peabody's current contracts.
The port and rail have a proven track record, as they are also used by our existing other Queensland operations. On Slide 19, let's talk about safety. It's all about safety. It's a value to us, and it's also about the lessons we've learned. Centurion is committed to investing in the best people and setting the highest safety standards in the industry. Given the recent fire at a nearby mine and the history of Centurion, the company has taken the lessons from past incidents and incorporated them into our management plans for longwall operations, including gas drainage design and active inertization. Peabody has spent considerable time, effort, and funds to mitigate future risk.
Some of these implemented improved plans include the following: extracting the gas in advance to allow for maximum drainage of the reserve before we cut into the coal with longwall or continuous miners. This is especially important as the depth of the seam increases. Centurion is working on plans to monetize the gas and mitigate extraction and emission costs. The longwall move planning includes rapid recovery, which means a quick move of the longwall when we finish a panel, to allow for quick seating of the extracted panels. This is to prevent exposure to potential heating in the goaf or the gaff. Centurion has committed to not commencing longwall operations until proper nitrogen inertization units are on the property in place for backup if we need that or as we finish longwall panels.
The spontaneous combustion management plan stresses the exclusion of oxygen from the goaf. This is really important, and this requires discipline and automation, real-time observation of gas at the face in the control room. It's really about discipline on the ventilation standards, minimizing the amount of oxygen that gets back in the goaf. We now have the best-in-class monitoring that picks up when we have carbon monoxide, which is a critical indicator of a heating event. We're on time, on budget, and credit goes to our Centurion team. I will now turn it over to the other Mark to discuss the project economics.
Thanks, Mark, and it's great to be here with everyone today. Centurion will be the cornerstone metallurgical coal asset in Peabody's portfolio for decades to come. Centurion significantly increases Peabody's coking coal exposure, producing 4.7 million short tons per year at an all-in cost of $105 per ton. Assuming a $210 long-term benchmark price, the mine will generate nearly $900 million in annual revenue, reweight Peabody's EBITDA to better than 50% from metallurgical coal and transform Peabody into a primarily met coal producer. At a $210 benchmark price, Centurion has an estimated net present value of $1.6 billion, or about half of Peabody's current market capitalization.
The Centurion Mine Complex has 140 million tons of reserves in the Goonyella Middle Seam, yielding some of the most sought-after premium, low-vol, hard coking coal on the planet. The mine will start in the southern panels and simultaneously continue development of the longer northern panels. Production is a little less favorable than the life of mine average in the initial southern panels, but costs will be at the $105 per ton average, as the private royalty in the south is not anticipated to be payable in the early years. We expect production to be approximately 3.5 million tons in the first two years before ramping up to the long-term production rate beginning in 2028. As Mark mentioned, early underground development rates are ahead of schedule, and I'm pleased to say that capital costs remain on budget.
As a reminder, Centurion benefits from $1 billion of existing infrastructure, resulting in comparably lower development capital for a nearly 5 million ton a year mine with 25+ years of life. Consistent with our long-time estimate, we expect $489 million of capital investment to refurbish existing infrastructure and develop the southern panels ahead of longwall production in March 2026, of which $250 million has been spent to date. We expect $430 million of incremental development capital to reach the 120 million tons of reserves in the northern panels and begin longwall production. From a timing perspective, $130 million of that will be spent concurrent with the development of the southern panels, leaving approximately $300 million of remaining development capital over the initial three years of longwall mining in the south.
After commencing longwall production in the north in 2029, annual sustaining capital is expected to be $60 million for the next 10 years. Peabody's seaborne metallurgical coal segment will experience a step change when Centurion begins longwall production in just eighteen months. Met coal production increases significantly and puts Peabody solidly into double-digit tons of annual production. Peabody's metallurgical coal sales will not only increase. The production mix dramatically shifts toward higher-quality coals, materially increasing anticipated price realizations for the segment. Looking forward, our metallurgical coal segment production will essentially become one-third benchmark Australian premium, low-vol hard coking coal. One-third will be a combination of the other Australian hard coking coals and U.S. High-Vol A, and one-third PCI coals. Peabody's met segment EBITDA would more than double to $950 million on a pro forma basis when compared to full year 2023 results.
Centurion's leverage to met coal prices is substantial, with a nearly 90% increase in expected EBITDA over a little more than a $100 price improvement. This leverage to coal price is underpinned by Centurion's projected cost of $105 per short ton, at the low end of the first quartile Australian met coal producer costs, ensuring the mine's profitability throughout the price cycle. Together with Centurion's large reserves and 25+ year mine life, we're developing a premier hard coking coal mine with geographic favorability to supply growing Asian demand for premium low-vol coking coal. I will close by saying, we believe Centurion provides Peabody shareholders with unmatched optionality to tightening met coal markets in the coming decades. Jim, I'll turn it back over to you for closing remarks.
Thank you, Mark and Mark and Malcolm, and I hope this presentation has given our listeners a better understanding of the Centurion project and its value to our shareholders. I'd just like to hit upon a few of the points that the team made today. First off, this value proposition, it all starts for me with looking at the markets and the supply-demand dynamic and the growing demand with the decreasing supply. You take the timing of our entry into this market with what I hope you've heard today is, I consider to be a best-in-class asset. Why do I say that? It's based on a lot of factors: a long reserve life, premium quality, Tier One costs, advantageous logistics, and really low execution risk to bring this coal to market.
This combination, I believe, is a very unique and attractive value proposition for our shareholders. But furthermore, this is transformational for Peabody as a whole. As I said, we've been around for a 140 years, and for those 140 years, for a large part of it, we've been viewed as a U.S. thermal coal producer. Now, when Centurion comes online, 85% of our EBITDA is gonna be coming from the seaborne metallurgical and thermal coal markets, 85%. And that seaborne markets have tremendous upside pricing potential. Let's not forget about the very stable and consistent cash generation we have from the U.S., where we have some very low cost and very well-capitalized assets. You put this combination together, and, I'll say it again, we have a very unique and attractive value proposition, unmatched by any other coal company in the world.
Thank you for listening to us, and we look forward to answering your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our line. And our first question today comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, operator. Thank you, everyone, for a very informative and thorough presentation. There's a lot of good information in there. My first question is on Centurion North CapEx of $430 million. I wondered if you could provide a little bit of color on kind of the breakdown of that $430 million. What are the key items there? And then looking at Slide 23, I wondered if it's maybe possible to break out kind of Centurion North CapEx by year. Thank you very much.
Yeah, good afternoon, Lucas. It's Mark. A couple of things. $250 million spent to date against the $489 million for the South, and $20 million spent to date, really this year for Centurion North. As I mentioned, in my remarks, for the North, we're gonna spend, you know, we got $20 million, we had, you know, up to $50 million in the budget. We're probably gonna, or this year, we're gonna spend a total of about $70 million in the fourth quarter on the total project, trying to accelerate that as much as we can.
But as I mentioned in my remarks, there's between this year, 2025 and the beginning of 2026, before we start longwall coal production in the South, we expect to have about $130 million of that $430 million spent for the North. And that's about $100 million a year, and you can see it at 2026, 2027, and 2028. That's primarily for the North. And that'll be really mostly underground development. You can see on a couple of slides back, the number of meters that we need to get to that first longwall coal production in the North. I think is pretty helpful to see what we're gonna do.
There's been some of the initial capital and some for the plant and infrastructure, and improvements that we need for the capacity that North will bring, but it's by and large underground development.
I appreciate that. Thank you. Thank you, Mark. And Jim, I have a little bit more of a strategic question on the back of the value proposition of Centurion. In the past, you've spoken to kind of met coal as a avenue of growth, kind of followed by seaborne thermal. With this project, does it make sense to supplement with M&A on the growth side? And if so, would you point to Australia first, or would you also look at the U.S.? You noted some key attributes of Australia. And then also, in this context, how should we think about the U.S. met coal assets? Are those strategic or for that matter, some of your PCI operations?
Thank you very much.
Hi, Lucas. We, as with, past practice, we don't comment on any M&A activity, at all, whether we're active in it or not. So, I won't make any comments on that. I will state that we have said in the past that as we look where we see the markets to growth being in the seaborne metallurgical markets, that's where we're looking to grow our portfolio. And Centurion is a fine example of that, and investing in our own assets is directed toward that market.
Okay, that's helpful. Maybe one last one on the commercial side. Do you have a view on how PLV would perform relative to PCI and High-Vol A over the next couple of years, given the outlook you mentioned at the beginning of this call? Thank you. Thank you very much.
Yeah, look, it's Malcolm here. Look, I think when you look at the demand and supply fundamentals of particular grades, which you need to answer your question, the premium low volatile hard coking coal segment is the tightest. So if you think about high HVA, there's probably an overhang of that grade of coal in the market at the moment, and really the tightest segment is PLV, followed by PCI. So as I said, in terms of demand and supply fundamentals, it's PLV, HCC, PCI, then High-Vol A.
Got it. Okay. Very helpful. Again, lots of really good information in here. I appreciate all that color, and, Jim, to you and the team, continue. Best of luck.
Thank you, Lucas.
Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Maybe just starting with a couple clarification questions. On the CapEx side, Mark, you made some comments related to maintenance CapEx. I think for the overall business, maybe to start, maintenance CapEx has been around $140 million. I'm assuming that $60 million, Mark, you mentioned, was gonna be the maintenance CapEx specifically for Centurion. I think you said for the next 10 years, once the project comes online. Can we just get some clarification there? I'd appreciate that.
Yeah, Nate, good afternoon. You're right. When we look, once we start longwall production in the north, over the next 10 years, so really 2029 and beyond for 10 years, it's about $60 million average for Centurion on a sustaining basis. I think your other question, and I know we're sticking to Centurion today, but what our sustaining capital is for the existing portfolio, and you're right, we've kind of said it's between $125 million and $150 million per year basis. Centurion being new to the portfolio would be additional to that.
Okay, Mark, and you said that was Centurion North in 2029, $60 million. Any thoughts on what Centurion South's maintenance CapEx would be, you know, between that 2026 to 2029 period?
Yeah, the $60 million is all in Centurion. We're gonna. We're still operating with one longwall, so it's either north or south. So it's, o nce we start in the north, we'll stay in the north for a good 20 years, and that $60 million is all inclusive of Centurion.
Okay, got it. And then related to the cost projections, the $105 per ton, per short ton, that's life of mine, right? So, you said that does include royalties, so what net price do you guys have baked into that $105 assumption?
So the $105 is based on the long-term real or flat price of $210 per metric ton.
Okay, got it. And then I also noticed, and you briefly touched on it too, but any additional comments on the special royalty agreements, you know, both for Centurion South and North, and maybe how those are a little bit differentiated from some of the other items, you know, in Queensland?
Yeah. I think in the appendix of the presentation, we included a slide that kind of mentions the Queensland royalty and the table and the various tiers in the Queensland royalty. But then in the south, there is a private royalty that has been in existence really since about 2000. And that that's paid after losses are recouped at a $210 price assumption. We don't pay on that royalty until about 2028 and 2029, we will be paying. But in our model economics, we're probably paying about $125 million on that royalty. And then when we move to the north, you know, that that comes from the recent Wards Well acquisition.
And there is a kind of a capped and tiered royalty there as well, once we recover all of the development capital that we've invested in Centurion. So again, at a $210 flat price assumption, we look to pay that really 2031 through 2034, is when that'd be applicable. Just for reference, that again is capped at $200 million. That's all included in the base $105 average life of mine cost.
Okay, great, Mark, appreciate those thoughts. Then maybe just one final one on kind of the commercial side. You know, you guys talked about in the slides how India is likely to be, you know, the biggest growth market for met coal over the next, you know, call it 25 years or so. I would assume that would be, you know, one of your biggest targets from a customer standpoint. But what other countries could or do you expect, you know, will show demand for this Centurion product?
Yeah, look, this coal will be in demand around the world globally. You know, Japan will be a key customer base. You know, potentially Korea, Taiwan, and India. But really, you know, our focus is gonna be partnering with those that have those growth plans and that have invested the capital. I think we'll probably look for a target of maybe five or six customers as our cornerstone customers and then, you know, have a spare amount of product to work with market trends and as they move around in terms of demand. But really focused on Asia, because as I said in my presentation, that's where we have the biggest proximity advantage, and that's where it's growing.
And so that's where our strategy will be in terms of marketing.
Great, Malcolm, I appreciate those thoughts. Thank you, guys, for the time and information, and best of luck.
Thanks, Nate.
And our next question comes from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks, guys, for the presentation, and thanks for taking my questions. I just have some questions on the economic assumptions that you provided, which are very helpful. First, on the $105 cost number, what are you assuming for rail and port costs in that FOB cost number? And do you have any longer term contracts there that will give you stability around those costs?
Yeah, look, we have infrastructure contracts that are in place and that go for many years. I just don't have the specific number there. We're gonna have to get back to you.
Okay, thanks. I'm asking because it's an incredibly competitive cost number, and if that's you'd be, you know, by far the lowest producer in the basin, if you can deliver on that, so that'd be very encouraging if that number is something you can meet or beat. Also on the NPV assumption, the $1.6 billion, what are you assuming for a discount rate to get to that number?
Chris, that's an 11% discount rate on a real basis.
Okay, and then the last question I have is just related to the Bowen Basin. I mean, you have a map in the deck that shows Centurion, it shows BHP, and it shows Anglo. And obviously, you know, Anglo's had two fires at Grosvenor. BHP has had a lot of geologic issues in the Bowen Basin, and they've made significant reductions to their production guidance. You had, you know, when this was North Goonyella, you had a fire there, and, you know, just geology in that region is very challenging. Are you confident that the safety measures you're taking will be enough to ensure operational stability? It just seems like everybody struggles so much there. I'm just wondering what sort of confidence you have in your ability to hit these production targets and these cost numbers.
Chris, Mark Hathorn here. Yeah, I'm very confident. It starts with the team we have. Quite frankly, there's a shortage of really qualified leaders that can do that. But I tell you, our team is rock solid. It starts with that, and then obviously, the lessons we've learned. I mean, we've had a lot of time to study this before we made this investment. And you know, the other thing at the old one, we've never had the luxury of new equipment like we do now. So all of our development equipment is new, and then more importantly, the longwall really is fit for purpose.
If you remember our history, we tried the top coal caving and actually ended up dropping the cop coal caving part of it off and literally left it and was mining with that in 2018 when we had the last incident. That's when we ordered this new longwall. We knew that wasn't the right wall. Before that, we just never had a fit for purpose longwall. The lessons we've learned when we finish a panel to get off really good monitoring and ventilation standards to where we minimize the oxygen getting back in that goaf. I could go on, but I feel very confident. It's the team, it's the new equipment, and it's what we've learned and the standards.
This is the most important thing in the company, and you know, it's our, it's, you know, how important it is to us. So that's what we're gonna be managing, that's what we're managing today. Very confident and very proud of what the team's doing.
Just one final question. Do you think the learnings that you've had over the years and the quality of the team can deliver operational upside potentially to other assets in the region? I mean, there's assets that are for sale, mines that have arguably been undercapitalized over the years and have had, you know, various operating issues. So these problems that you could, potentially your team could resolve based on the learnings that you've had, or is it specific to an asset-by-asset basis, basically?
Let me just say it this way: We're laser focused on Centurion and delivering the prize there safely every day.
Great. Thank you, guys. Good luck with everything.
Thanks, Chris.
Thank you. I will now turn it over to Karla Kimrey, who will address the questions submitted via the Q&A function.
Thank you. Malcolm, in the press release, we indicated that Centurion produces premium, low- vol hard coking coal. They have an interest in knowing what the volatile matters are on the coal on an air dry basis.
Yeah, on an air dry basis, it's 23%-24%, and we typically spec it at 23.5%.
Excellent. And also, a follow-up on that is we have said that we would be shipping coal in the fourth quarter. Do you know if that's sold, or do we still need to market that coal?
We're in various discussions with three or four of our partners at this time on that coal, and we're just completing the wash process for that cargo. Once we know the spec, we'll be locking that down.
Excellent. Mark, I have one for you. What did you mean by optionality on net coal prices?
Yeah. Thanks to whoever asked that question, it really is the, the top question from a valuation perspective. And as we noted in the presentation, a flat $210 benchmark price results in a $1.6 billion NPV at an 11% discount rate. We also noted that with a $100 price improvement, EBITDA increases 90%, which really juices the returns. Taking a step back, there's such a sharp focus on the short term in coal and this current quarter's shareholder returns, that investment in transformative projects like Centurion are often sorely overlooked.
Admittedly, there aren't a lot of organic metallurgical coal projects, and we might have the best one, but the lack of investment resulting in critical shortages of new supply, and this will inevitably lead to much more volatile and higher prices for premium coals and the margin expansion we talked about. With the industry trading at three or four times multiples, it's clear that the market is not valuing coal assets for the fundamental market changes we've experienced over the last 10 years. This is evidenced by the wild volatility in pricing that we've seen over the last few years. Just for context, we had an average realized price of $364 in 2022, and the most recent low was $124 in 2020.
To better reflect these market fundamentals, a much better valuation approach is to use a probabilistic model with variable pricing. This will better reflect the underlying undervalued optionality in coal assets. For example, using a price range for benchmark PLV coal of $100-$380, Centurion's net present value range is $1.5 billion-$2.7 billion. So as you can see, very little downside and over $1 billion of upside. This is the leverage or optionality to tight metallurgical coal markets that Peabody shareholders are receiving with our balanced approach between shareholder returns and developing Centurion. Since 2023, we've allocated $600 million to shareholder returns and $600 million to developing Centurion, what we believe to be the best recipe for increasing shareholder value.
Thank you. Mr. Hathhorn, I have a question for you. Do you foresee any execution risk to get to the longwall operations in 2026?
So it's coal mining. Obviously, there's risk, but I feel good, and I feel good because you know, we talked about it in the comments. You know, equipment delivery can be a risk, but we're about to have that behind us, and I say that because the third continuous miner unit is really close to showing up to site, and the fourth one is in sight. So that's becoming less of a risk to us getting all this development done and getting longwall going in March of 2026. So you know, I feel good. I think one other luxury when I talk about new equipment generically, but being more specifically, is we've got a brand-new conveyor system. And you know, we've got diversification with multiple continuous miners.
If there is some maintenance downtime on one, times we can make it up. You know, when the belt's down, if the belt is down and we don't have good availability there, you know, that can be an issue for a coal mine, but brand-new belt, state-of-the-art, it's performing well, and I feel pretty good. And I think we got a solid team. We've already went through a few areas, conditions-wise, but the team didn't miss a beat in the safety of our people, and more importantly, getting through it. So again, I feel very confident that. And most importantly, by just the rates we're getting. We had some late equipment deliveries. The team is already making that up.
Some may say they already made it up, and we're getting. They're doing well, so I feel very confident that March twenty twenty-six, we'll have the longwall cutting.
Thank you. Jim, I think I'm just gonna turn it over to you for closing remarks.
Thanks, Karla, and thanks to everybody that took the time to listen to our presentation today. It's obvious we're very excited about our project and the starting of shipments of coal here in the fourth quarter. So we look forward to providing updates in our future quarterly earnings calls. And again, thank you for taking the time.
Conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may disconnect.