Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
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2024 Southwest IDEAS Conference

Nov 21, 2024

Moderator

The symbol CLNE. Presenting on behalf of the company today is Chief Financial Officer Robert Vreeland and President and Chief Executive Officer Andrew Littlefair.

Andrew Littlefair
CEO, Clean Energy

William, thank you. Good morning, everyone. It's good to be in Dallas. I used to live in Dallas, and it's always nice to be back. Clean Energy, let me jump in. I don't tend to take you through these 39 slides here, but maybe I'll cover kind of the top end. I think I'll leave plenty of time for questions because I think, frankly, being a company that's in the green transition space, we just, Bob and I were at a conference a couple days ago in New York, and there were a lot of questions about, well, how does the Trump thing, you know, what happens to the green transition? What about you versus batteries versus? So I'm pretty much up to speed on all that.

be happy to answer those kinds of questions 'cause I think the market, frankly, is trying to sort that out a little bit, candidly as we sit here, and be happy to answer those questions. So let's jump in. Clean Energy, Boone and I founded this company, Boone Pickens, 27 years ago. The whole idea was we had a lot of natural gas in America. It was cheap, it was domestic, it was clean. That should be easy. We've been at it ever since. Today we have about 600. I started out just with the. I was the only employee in one station. Today we have about 600 fueling stations that we own or operate, 350 of which we own. We're totally focused on fleet vehicles. I'm gonna cover RNG. I'm gonna go to this one.

We're totally focused on heavy-duty vehicles. All right. So please get the light-duty out of your mind. It's, it's refuse truck. It's, it's freight forwarding at airports, over-the-road trucking, and transit properties. Today we fuel about 50,000 vehicles at those 600 and some odd stations. About eight or 10 years ago, we began to pivot over to renewable natural gas. And so we've spent a lot of energy and time on that. Today, of the 250 million gal that we sell, 90% of it is renewable. That is, we're capturing methane, or the people we buy the gas from are capturing methane at either landfills or dairies. We're cleaning up that fuel, we're putting it in the vehicle, and it's a dramatically lower carbon fuel.

So, as fleets have been under pressure to become more green and more sustainable, they look around and they think, okay, what, well, we can have renewable diesel, we have natural gas, or, or, or renewable natural gas, battery, and hydrogen. And so we could go through all the, all those choices, but we happen to think and believe, and I, I think our fleets do that fuel with us like UPS and Waste Management and Republic and FedEx is that we have the most cost-effective, lowest carbon fuel that allows that truck to do the job that it's supposed to do. When we started in the refuse space, in 2008, 300 natural gas trash trucks were sold. Today we fuel about, oh, I don't know, 20,000 natural gas trash trucks in 42 states. So I know this works. I know it's economic for certain fleets.

The largest segment is the over-the-road trucking fleet, which is about a 35-40 billion gal annual fuel use segment. So it's a big target. And it won't be winner take all, but there's plenty in there for everybody. So as I look at this slide, I've covered that we have the 600 stations across the country. We've been working with customers like Amazon, UPS, Waste Management for years and years. We're the largest player of renewable natural gas in the United States. 50% of all the RNG that's sold in America, we sell. We generate half of all the RINs and low carbon fuel credits. So we're very active in that space. We're developing dairy farms with our partners, Total and BP as we speak.

Bob is actually the chairman of our effort to begin to open up Western Canada with a corridor of trucking. We're doing that with our partner, Tourmaline, who's the largest natural gas producer in Canada. You can see that we've grown the RNG volumes over on the right-hand side of the screen over time to where today, as I said, about 90% of the fuel we sell. The reason I make a distinction is we do service gal, right? So if you're a transit property, we may build you a station using federal government capital, and we'll get a return on building that station. Then we operate it for you. We might not necessarily sell you the fuel.

So when you look at our numbers, we have service gal and we have fuel gal, fuel gallon being, as you would expect, where we're actually selling the fuel. 90% of those gal are today RNG. So we're on the RNG supply side. We're totally focused on these dairies. We have six that we have built most recently. They're just now coming on to production. If there is a critique, a negative critique of that, they seem to take a little bit longer to get on production and get to be contributing to the bottom line. But they are now finished. We have six more that are in process. It's important to note as you look at our numbers, we have all the money for those projects set aside.

So we're not looking to go out and raise more capital, certainly not with a $3 or less than $3 stock price. We are fully integrated, right? So we source this RNG from 60 different suppliers all across the country. So we're really the largest in that game. And then we distribute it at our stations. And I've talked about our distribution. So we're the largest in that. And we've paid for all that. So we've probably spent a billion dollars over our 25 years putting that all in place. We've got a pretty good network of truck stops across the country. Why RNG? Well, it's sustainable. It's super low carbon. It's quieter. You know, it's natural gas, right? It's 90% less on the tailpipe on NOx. So, you know, today in America, we don't really focus on the tailpipe.

We've kind of gotten all enamored about, you know, carbon and climate. But the tailpipe emissions are still important in natural gas, and RNG is really low on that. I mean, it already meets the standards that'll be in place in 2027, and it's proven. This isn't rocket science anymore, right? UPS has bought a diesel truck now in, oh, I don't know, four years, five years. I've lost track. They've operated a billion miles now on natural gas and RNG. I think this is an important slide. And you know, one of the questions as you sit here as an investor, and you're thinking, okay, well, I don't know, how is with the, with the new administration coming in and all I've heard about electric and this and that, is clean, is low carbon, is sustainability dead?

And I haven't. I've been at this a long time. I, I don't think so. You know, I'm an old political guy. One of the, one of the highest things that continues to pull is people want, they want a healthy environment. They want a clean environment. And so I don't believe that the sustainability or kind of the move to lower carbon is, is over. I do happen to think that there's gonna be a more sensible way to go about it. And I don't happen to think that mandates that we've seen most recently, electric vehicle mandates, those kinds of things, I think that they're gonna fall out of favor. So you're gonna get back to what is economic? What is a market approach to reducing carbon? I know that our large trucking customers haul. Let's just use an example.

I mean, Knight-Swift hauls for Procter & Gamble. Procter & Gamble wants their supply chain to be cleaner. And so these trucking fleets are looking for how do we continue to do, how do we continue to make money, how do we haul this stuff, and how do we do it on a cost-effective basis that allows us to operate the way we'd like. This, this is important because it shows you, this is a slide, this is California. So this is the grid. This is zero, this line running across. So you could see the kind of the baseline of gasoline and diesel, this is carbon, is at 100. And you could see green hydrogen, if you had it, is about half. Renewable diesel does a pretty good job, right? And that's why there's about three or four billion gal of it today.

Electric vehicles, I always think that's interesting. So we're gonna go to electric vehicles and have more carbon. RNG, renewable natural gas from landfills, wastewater, food waste. This is why we're focused on the dairies, right? Literally five times less carbon. So I'm able to sell RNG today to a heavy-duty customer at $2 a gal less than diesel and be four times less on carbon. That's it in a nutshell, right? That's why we do it. And I happen to think that's not gonna go out of style. I think there's gonna be some rough water in here. The market's trying to sort all this out. Who are the winners? Who are the losers? And as evidence of that, our stock's gone down about 20% in the last 10 days. As people are looking at, well, just what's gonna happen to hydrogen and what's gonna happen to batteries?

I happen to think we're gonna end up doing fine because we have a real economic solution that is lower carbon. I won't dwell on this. There's a lot of this stuff. It takes a lot of money to bring it on, but it does get an economic return. These, when you put a digester at a dairy or at a landfill, you know, it's a four- or five-year payback. So there is a return on that, but it's expensive. If you were to say, well, how much of it is there really? Remember, the market is 40 billion gal. You're not gonna replace all that with renewable natural gas, but there's probably 2 billion gal of RNG from dairies. There's a couple, there's four, five, six billion gal from all the other sources, the wastewater, the landfills.

You probably over the next decade have seven to eight billion gal of this. You say, well, is that a niche of the 40 billion? Well, it's a pretty big niche, except on a carbon basis, it's as if you're reducing diesel by half, more or less. So it can make a significant contribution on the, on reducing carbon. And that's why I think you'll continue to see it. I've talked about our focus on the dairy and that we bring a lot of RNG in from all sorts of different sources, and a lot of it's from landfills as well. One of the things, and I'll just go over this quickly is, okay, well, look, Littlefair, if this doesn't work for transportation, what do you do with your RNG?

The truth is RNG, renewable natural gas, is the lowest greenest feedstock. So if hydrogen ever were to take off someday in the future, it'll be reformed at a station. That's the lowest carbon fuel. It's not coming from wind and solar and all this stuff. And also you can take RNG and make electricity out of it. Or you do what we're doing today where you clean, you capture the gas and put it in a pipeline and put it right in the vehicle. I'm gonna skip over this. We have stations. I don't know that there's 600 dots on there, but we're all over, right? We're in, we have about 120 truck stops down the I-10, the I-40, the I-95, the I-5. So we're kind of well positioned at this point, for an awful lot.

Our infrastructure today can handle about another 250 million gal. So we have room. We have capacity without spending any more CapEx. This is a sampling of our customers. I don't know if I have an Amazon deal on here or not. Huh? In the back, probably. Maybe in the back. Let me just talk about Amazon because I think it's what you're gonna see going forward. We're working with. I'm gonna talk about the Cummins 15, and I'm gonna talk about kind of how this works. We made a deal with Amazon a few years ago. They bought 2,500 12 L natural gas trucks. They wanted all of it to be on RNG. And we agreed to build them 19 depots for their trucks. What's that? The dairies, we can come back there.

We built about 20 of the 19 of these. So they're parking 150 of their over-the-road trucks. This isn't for the last mile stuff. This is for their big hauling. But I love it 'cause I've been at this a long time. This is kind of a very nice commercial example there. They have a couple, they have 100 to 200 trucks overnight. We fuel them on natural gas. We also have that canopy you see here in the foreground, which could fuel trucks rapidly, and that's open to third parties. So we finished these with them. They're fueling 2,500, probably 2,200 trucks. They used our network as we got these built. They used 80 stations in our network, and now most of their focus is on these stations. Now, I happen to think that as the Cummins 15 L, can you see what page that's on?

There's an interesting event that's happened here recently. Pardon me, everyone. This is an example of the time fill location where we're, you know, these Amazon trucks come back at night or in the afternoon and they plug in and they're full. So it's kind of sweet. The our competition, for instance, a battery electric, you wouldn't be able to find the power to be able to do this. I like to remind people that 50 over-the-road trucks on electricity requires the same amount of electricity that's used every day in the Empire State Building. So the idea that you're gonna run around and put electric truck depots in for 200 trucks, it's just you might find one location someplace, but not like we're able to do.

So that's what gives me a lot of comfort that we have something that works. What is different and what's happening right now, that is a new Knight, that's a new 15 L Kenworth truck. I think it's Kenworth from PACCAR with the 15-L engine. Cummins now, they make a 9-L, they make a 12-L, but the truth was we never really had the 15-L engine. 70% of all the over-the-road trucks use a 15-L diesel engine, and we didn't have it until this year where we did. So this in 2024 was a year where the largest fleets in America, the Ruans and the Knight-Swifts and the J.B. Hunts have all been testing. Walmart, FedEx, UPS have all been testing this. The testing went extremely well. 500 horsepower, a thousand miles of range, a thousand pounds of torque.

You now have the product that they need that can operate in Canada with these large can haul the 80,000-pound load. And we haven't had that. And I think this is gonna be really important for 2025 and 2026. At the end of this year, the Cummins will have sold about a thousand of them. UPS, they just announced, the CEO of Cummins announced on her earnings call that UPS just acquired 250. Now, why 250 of these 15 L? Why is this important for us? 'Cause we have about 70% market share. Each truck burns about 15,000 gal. So when you get into next year, I think they'll sell about 4,000 of these units. Still small, but that's 60 million gal.

That's a 40, if we have 70% market share, that's 40 million gallon added to us on the, you know, that really begins to get us into the 20% growth rate. But it's really the next year, the following year, 2026, where Cummins says that they don't see any reason why they couldn't have 8% penetration of the heavy-duty market. Heavy-duty market's 250,000 units, so 8% is 20,000 units. And then I immediately say, okay, but that's 15,000 gal per unit. Well, that's 300 million gal. So if I still have 60%-70% market share at that point, that basically doubles my volume in a given year, every year. So I think we're kind of on the cusp of the adoption. I think we actually have a solution that makes economic sense versus some of the other mandated technologies that just aren't really ready.

I feel pretty good about where we are because we've built out the infrastructure. We have a green fuel, but we're not gonna bust the company in order to, you know, to, double or triple down on, on creating RNG. And, and we bring it in from so many suppliers, we don't have to, and we can still have a very low carbon fuel. Bob, would you like to make any, comments here? And then, and then we have 15 minutes left. I'll be happy to, to answer any questions. Okay. Well, that's helpful. okay.

Robert Vreeland
CFO, Clean Energy

Back up just a little. Maybe I'll just comment. Yeah. Okay. So, I mean, I, and of course I'm gonna look at like how, how well are we capitalized? Are we appropriately capitalized for, for a small-cap company? We, we are in very good financial shape.

So this is at the end of September. We had about $244 million of cash and investments. Our kind of net land, property, and equipment is at $354 million. Now that's been significantly depreciated over time. So, you know, interesting, one of our analysts covers us has a price target for us of $10, and it's solely based on our kind of net tangible value of our equipment base that we have in the ground and thinking about replication costs. Because frankly, today, we trade probably at about our tangible book value, right? And so, the point being that we're well positioned, we've significantly invested in this infrastructure. It's bought and paid for. We recently, just about a year ago, got a debt facility. It was $300 million.

That was, it is really to support growth in the RNG production side of the house. You know, each year, I mean, through September, our operating cash flow is $43 million. And that's really reflective of the distribution or the station network side of the house. The supply side are really equity investments. And they're still in kind of, you know, beginning operation mode. So we're well capitalized. We're. Our revenue's $400 million-ish. We have some pretty significant non-cash charges that go on in our GAAP statements. So, you know, one of our key metrics is our adjusted EBITDA. And this is what we've run over the years. You look at this and you say, okay, so we're in the $40 million-$50 million of adjusted EBITDA each year.

You know, through September, we're at $53 million of adjusted EBITDA. So we're starting to see the effects of the heavy-duty truck fueling adoption go on. So we should be somewhere; we guided to $62 million-$72 million of adjusted EBITDA for 2024, and we're at $53 million through September. So we're on pace to be certainly maybe toward the higher end of that range. Yeah, this is what I was just speaking to. This is for the quarters. So, you know, one of the key aspects of the business that I appreciate is the recurring revenue aspect of our business. You know, these vehicles run out of fuel every single day and they fuel, and so we and we're servicing them every day. So it's a very sticky model. It's, you know, that's good and bad news.

The stickiness is, we generally, I am not going into a year of budgeting and discussing about customers that are handing their keys in and going back to diesel. Once the move is made into natural gas, they're very, they're very well committed. So it is a big deal. So as you see, if you are paying attention to, you know, the adoption, and I will say it is all about adoption, and we now, now we have access to the largest market, right? I mean, the 15 L, we didn't have access to that. 70% of that 40 billion gal runs on 15 L. So Cummins is, promoting that. In fact, I would suggest if you wanna, if you wanna measure and, monitor how adoption is going, you can look at the Cummins newsroom.

They fairly recently put out an article where they were checking in on the 15-L and profiling various customers that had been running the 15-L and quotes from those customers that it was very positive. And, you know, we're coming kind of from zero on that. So, and the fact that UPS ordered 250. So, anyway, that's kind of where we're at financially, very well situated and positioned very well for added volume. So we could probably double our fuel volumes without really much with really minimal investment at this stage because we're kind of set up for that.

Andrew Littlefair
CEO, Clean Energy

Bob, thank you. Okay. With that, why don't we see if there are any questions? That's a dairy farm in Texas. Sir. Welcome to the icons, one of these digester projects kind of from Texas. Sure.

So we make a deal with the dairy farmer. Dairy farmer doesn't really have much capital. I mean, all these are a little different, but you know, generally they're busy trying to stay above water milking cows. All right. This one's in Del Rio, Texas. This would be a good example. This is a 6,500 size dairy. The industry is focused on the larger dairies first. We actually have one in construction today. It was kind of breathtaking in Idaho, 37,000 milking cows. Second one, the largest one in the United States. You can see here that the digesters in the center, that's where we're literally taking the manure, putting it in there, stirring it around for about 16 days. It's off-gassing.

Methane then comes over here to some, you know, I would say, you know, semi-crude cleanup is a million bucks, but semi or maybe more semi-crude cleanup where you're, 'cause it's organic, right? So you're not, this isn't a landfill where you're knocking out a lot of NOx and bad properties. You're just making it pipeline quality and it goes into the pipeline. Now, all right, what do these things cost? CapEx is running around $28-$30 per gal. All right. So what does that mean? This farm may do 1.3 million gal a year. So the investment here is about 40, 35, wasn't it? I can't really remember about 35. So it's significant, right? This is a $35 million investment.

How it works is, we're getting our money back and we're flipping that farmer on the back end in for a royalty payment. He may get a royalty payment upfront, but then he gets an increased royalty payment later after we get our money back, plus a return. The way that the credits and all, you know, we participate in the low carbon fuel credit. Now this will really drive you crazy. If you're not really familiar with this, you think, oh my God, we get a RIN, that's the federal credit. And if you move it to California or the western states that have low carbon, you're getting paid because you have a low carbon fuel. And you're getting significant low carbon fuel credits because you remember this is so low in carbon.

Long story short, when you boil all that down, those credits could be somewhere around $5 a gal EBITDA. I mean, that's kind of how it shakes out. So I would say that these early projects, even though we've seen those RIN prices go, RIN and low carbon fuel prices change and been a little tough on the low carbon fuel, these projects probably on their own are somewhere around a high-teen 20% return and they're 20-year projects. With the credits. No. Well, they may. Well, you'd have to sell the fuel at $7 a gallon. So no, yeah, would be my answer. I mean, look here, here's the thing. You want clean, you want something that's five times cleaner, it costs more.

And if the world decides we don't want that, we don't give a, pardon my language, shit about that. We don't really care about carbon anymore. This stuff won't fly because this is costing about $16-$18 per 1000 cu ft and natural gas fossil too. $50. Now the reason I think it will weather the test of time is because as I look, as an old political guy, I look at the map that just happened. These are all in red states. I have two of these big new dairies in Thune's district in his state. So, we are more aligned to the ethanol and biodiesel situation than we are. We don't get mandates, you know, we don't have mandates. Nobody's required to burn this stuff.

But in order to facilitate it and make economic sense, I gotta have those credits. Those credits are coming from the refiners, right? I mean, it's Chevron that's standing up those credits, the obligated parties. So it's not coming out of the taxpayer. So, you know, as you'll read, if you follow all this, are they gonna get rid of the IRA and 45Z and all that stuff? My guess is probably no. Probably some of it'll go away. I think the electric mandates will go away. I think, look, if I were a, and I don't say this 'cause I don't love these guys 'cause I know them, you know, would I be optimistic right now if I was a Plug Power shareholder waiting around for my $1.6 billion loan to close? I don't know about that.

I wouldn't bet the farm on that one. So I think some of that stuff, do I think that the Trump administration may claw back $500 billion for 500,000 charging stations across the country? You bet. But the good news is we don't rely on any of that kind of stuff. So we do need a constructive renewable fuel standard in the country. I don't see that going away. That is pretty bipartisan after it's been in place now about 15, 18 years. So I just kind of gave you a little political thing, but I mean, you know, the market's trying to sort that out and the policies are being sorted out.

I think we're gonna go, as the country for a while. I think we're gonna move away a little bit from industrial policy and back to something that these kinds of things need to stand more on their own bottom and rely less on mandates. Like I think, for instance, at the EPA, watch out for those 60% electric vehicle mandates and all that stuff. I think all that's getting ready to get torn back. California has some really way out there mandates, buy purchase mandates, mandates on if you sell diesel trucks, you gotta sell an electric truck and all that kind of stuff. Those aren't working right now. So they're kind of looking for, ooh, how do we pivot? We were sort of left out as a renewable natural gas truck was not a compliant strategy.

It looks like it may get put back into that program. So that's good for us. Other questions, sir?

The carbon balances, your numbers there are quite impressive in terms of the relevance.

Yeah. Right.

I think the green community fully understands that. If you really take advantage of it and promote it as the way to go. Well, no, it's an excellent question. And the honest-to-goodness truth was up until I think very recently, the environmental community, the environmental justice community, which was sort of tied into the party in power, if you will, Democrat party, they weren't interested in this. They used to be, but they really shifted their focus to electric batteries. And if you weren't a battery, you weren't in the game. So I think there's gonna be a new day.

That's what I'm kind of telling you is I think there's gonna be a new day where, and by the way, that battery thing just doesn't look. I'm not against battery of Tesla running around. I don't care. That's fine. But when you got over to the heavy duty, I do know something about that. And they just don't, the power's not available. The trucks cost twice as much. You know, we used to hear about how cheap the electricity is. Well, isn't that cheap? And UPS looked at it. They can't make their over-the-road trucks work on a battery. So that's why they've gone this way. So I think we're gonna have a new opportunity to tell our story.

I think some of the policy guys that were totally captured by the electric battery, you know, business, will have to kind of recognize that there's another, there are other alternatives. So, you know, are we a big enough company to run TV commercials at the foot, you know, at the Super Bowl on this? No, but we do spend a lot of time, effort. We have a big sales force that goes out and this is not a secret to all of America's largest fleets that are under the gun to lower their carbon, right? They've all looked at battery. I told Governor Newsom, who's, you know, a text pal of mine, and I said, listen, you, the California Air Resources Board has got you out on a gangplank here.

Electric, diesel truck sales in California are down 70% because they have to sell a, you know, 5% electric trucks. They can't sell 'em. So that, that's getting ready to, that won't go on that way, right? That's getting ready to change. We ought to be added into that. And I told the governor that. So I kind of think to answer your question is, no, we haven't been a, a beloved alternative here recently. But I think we will get another look. A little follow-up on that. I've heard that when you look at an energy balance around the typical community for garden variety, everyday EVs, you can't deliver enough power to charge up all those cars. No, no, no. No. We don't have enough power in Cal, California. Yeah. Yeah.

Did I say that the 50 vehicles is the same, use the same amount as the Empire State Building? Okay. So how many Empire State Buildings are you getting ready to put at the Port of Los Angeles, for instance, where there's a hundred thousand heavy-duty vehicles? You're not. So, I mean, I knew, you know, intellectually, well, all this was going on, well, this dog is not gonna hunt, you just don't have the power. And look, that was the message a year before, a few years now with AI, when you're talking about needing 25% more power in the United States just for that, you certainly don't have the power. All right. I'm out of time. Am I done? Any other questions before I skedaddle? We'll be here all day. Have a good conference, everybody.

Thank you.

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