Okay, good morning. I see the clock ticking down. I don't think you're going to be able to see it there, but I'll make sure I keep you abreast of how we're doing. Hopefully the torture won't go on for too long.
Looking forward to it, so.
All right, well, good morning, everybody in the room. I suspect on the webcast as well for joining us this morning. My name is Jason Gursky, Citi Aerospace and Defense Analyst. I have the pleasure of welcoming to the stage this morning the CEO and CFO of Curtiss-Wright. Lynn and Chris, thanks for joining us this morning.
Thank you.
We've got a laundry list of questions, we'll go through, but I always like to start off with a really high-level one to help those that may not be as familiar with the company that are in the audience or on the webcast with. Having you step back for a second and just kind of from a very basic level describe the problems that the company is trying to solve, how you go about doing that from a technological perspective. And then, if you're successful in solving those problems, what kind of markets are you addressing, customers that you're helping out, and just kind of a big-level setting of, you know, exactly what the company does.
Sure. Thank you for that. That's, you know, for a company like Curtiss-Wright that is, you know, a highly engineered company. That's a, you know, an important question and something that's a big focus, and we spend a lot of time thinking about that. You know, we're a diversified company. We serve a variety of end markets. I mean, the majority of the business is aerospace and defense, about two-thirds. But within, we're in a variety of other specialized markets. And, you know, most fundamentally, the products and services we provide are for mission-critical, life-critical, you know, high-safety applications. So we really pride ourselves in, you know, taking on really challenging tasks that are hard engineering projects and really delivering products that really have a must-not-fail type of solution for the applications they're in.
So if you say at the heart of the soul, what's Curtiss-Wright, that's really, you know, the heart and soul of what we are. And so where we apply that and something that is makes Curtiss-Wright, I think, a powerful company is, you know, we target picking places where we can build out products in, in applications that maybe we've developed a capability, you know, maybe decades ago. Quite frankly, a lot of the businesses we do, you know, did first instantiations of products, you know, 30, 40 years ago and then build a capability and then we're always have an eye to adjacent markets where you can maybe, you know, change the technology slightly or something and then apply that very, you know, well-honed capability to other end markets.
A, you know, a simple example of this that's, you know, one that's gone on over the past 50 years is our canned motor technology, which was developed for the Navy 50-some years ago that has been taken to commercial nuclear power and now to subsea pumping in, you know, we had a recent press release with Petrobras of, you know, a significant win with them, to take that technology. But, you know, we're solving a lot of problems across our end markets. You know, our Defense Electronics capability is critical in, you know, thousands of programs, across the globe, predominantly in the U.S., but, you know, worldwide with the NATO countries. You know, we have a very important footprint of delivering that Defense Electronics capability into those platforms.
We do things, you know, are a critical supplier to our nuclear Navy type of platform, so aircraft carriers and subs for a variety of products that go into them and are really a valued partner to the Navy in working very much right now on next-generation platforms that are coming and, are really a design partner with the Navy in that retrospect. We play a significant role in commercial nuclear energy, which has surely, you know, kind of made a, a quite a significant turn in public perception and the role it needs to play in our carbon-free goals. And then, you know, we've been taking the carbon, you know, free initiatives that are being embraced around the world to, products that we're bringing to market that are tied to electric vehicles.
And so you look across those, you know, types of things and there's others where, you know, we have really an outstanding capability in electromechanical actuation that is applicable to not only the commercial aerospace market where we have some big growth opportunities there, but finding really some significant wins in defense applications. So again, looking to build out that great capability and then taking our market footprint and our sales footprint and our knowledge of how customers want to do business in these various end markets and taking those technologies and bringing them across. So I would say that, you know, at a high level, that's who Curtiss-Wright is. And then obviously you can deep dive into sensor technologies and electromechanical actuation and that's more than the 40 minutes we have here.
Right.
So, but I'd say that's the, you know, the essence of who Curtiss-Wright is, so.
Okay. Great. appreciate that. I know that you recently had an earnings call.
Yes.
I did want to provide you the opportunity to, maybe kind of sum up what you, what we all learned then and give you an opportunity to make some kind of follow-up comments if you want to kind of clarify any messages coming out of that. But kind of the key data, you know, the key points that you want everybody to walk away from, coming out of that earnings call.
Okay. Yeah. I appreciate it. It was, you know, it's always good when you're proud of the results you're bringing forward and, you know, we were proud of the results we could bring, you know, to at the earnings call. And, you know, we really, we ended 2023 with record levels of sales, profitability, diluted earnings per share, free cash flows, and order books. So a pretty clean sweep of, you know, the things that we're focused on and driving in the company. We put out our initial 2024 guidance and so we're proud to, you know, put up, I think, strong, a strong guidance, you know, across the board on those types of metrics with, growth being, guided at 5%, at the midpoint of our guidance, which our, you know, three-year, our prior three-year average was 4.7%.
So guiding with continuing to build the momentum of what we feel we can drive with organic growth and guiding above that, some moderate, margin expansion. But, you know, really, you know, what we were proud to report on, you know, coming out of that earnings call was, you know, the delivering on our 2023 commitments, delivering on our three-year investor day commitments where we, you know, had a nearly clean sweep of really exceeding all the targets. You know, our cash was just under what the, you know, average free cash flow conversion of 110%. We came in at 108%. You know, clearly, you know, some of the challenges, you know, with inflation and supply chain disruption put a little extra, you know, challenge into that.
But, you know, we grew operating margin 110% over those three years, achieved an average total sales growth of 7.4%, you know, double-digit EPS growth at 12.5%. So it's really, you know, I think the thing to bring home is, you know, we're, we're a well-performing company. You know, we really have the systems and the processes in place that are really helping us manage the company to deliver great results. And, you know, we're looking forward to our investor day here coming in May, May 21st for all of you. Hopefully, you can either join or listen in.
It'll be live webcast, and to really talk about, you know, more than just 2024, but, you know, the bigger picture of what's, you know, there's still so much potential for Curtiss-Wright out there and things that we know are going to, you know, drive great momentum, you know, through the next handful of years. And we're looking forward to that opportunity to talk about those things.
Yeah. Great. So I won't try to front-run the investor day by asking you about, you know, what comes after 2024, but maybe we could spend a minute, just talking a little bit more about 2024. I think you're, and maybe spend a little bit more money this year on R&D. So maybe you could just kind of walk us through where the, where you're targeting the investments to go and what you think comes out the other side. Maybe both, you know, the quantum of, of opportunity that you have in front of you as you make those investment dollars and the cadence of when those might start to pull through.
Sure. So, you know, really fundamental to, you know, what we launched three years ago with our, you know, our pivot to growth strategy of, you know, not, you know, adding, you know, top-line sales growth to our overall financial targets that we're driving is a willingness to invest to drive that growth going forward. And whether that's covering dilution from an acquisition in year one or, or driving R&D either from a technology standpoint or, you know, working on a program with a customer that's probably going to be diluted margin to the corporation overall, but to being willing to drive those investments. And we did drive, you know, an incremental $20 million investment in 2023 and we're building on that and driving another $20 million of incremental investment in 2024 is what we're, you know, is baked into our guidance that we've put forward.
And that's a combination of both internally funded and working in customer-funded R&D that, you know, in many of our defense applications and some of the commercial nuclear applications where we have a lot of work going on, even in the subsea, you know, the customer's quite willing to, you know, spend money to fund your R&D. It's diluted to the corporation, but it's great to get funded for it. And, so we're making those investments. We continue to make sure we're driving, you know, operational efficiencies across the organization to allow for margin expansion while we're, you know, also funding those, those areas. And so it's something we're very proud of being able to do both and really feel confident that we, you know, the momentum is just building with the, the monies we've spent. And there's a handful of areas where, you know, we're targeting those, those investments.
You know, the first and foremost that we talk about is across our Defense Electronics portfolio that's the most visible with IR&D funding. And, you know, we're really proud of, you know, where, you know, we've built out our product offering portfolio and, you know, believe we have the strongest, you know, portfolio of products that, you know, aligns with the MOSA and SOSA. Just acronyms, but it's really a mandate that comes out of the DoD for buying open standards, computing equipment to build systems on it and making that a differentiator in the selection criteria. And so we continue to build out that portfolio of products. That's important to us. Our electric mechanical actuation is an area where, you know, we're continuing to just hone in an expertise that is really fairly unique in our ability to take on really high-power, high-load type of applications.
The announcement with Petrobras for building out the subsea pumping is an area that's just got great potential. This is an entirely new market area for Curtiss-Wright that is something that, you know, we've been working towards for a couple of years. We talked about our partnership with Shell and Saipem. But Petrobras is new and we're really just getting to the point of, you know, any production revenues from this. So it's an exciting growth vector for Curtiss-Wright. And then the investments that, you know, we're making around all, you know, a variety of applications with power electronics tied to electric vehicles that is an area that we have a, you know, quite a unique capability and a growing portfolio of products, you know, in that area that is, you know, there may be some fits and starts of what's going on in that.
We understand that, but it's surely long-term, is a completely growing portion of the industry. And those new product starts are, you know, affording us some growth while maybe there's a little bit of leveling off in those end markets. But maybe I'd ask Chris to talk a little bit about, you know, the, you know, from a financial standpoint, how we think about R&D investments.
Yeah. Sure. I mean, it's a very, very important topic for us. It's critical to our pivot to growth strategy, as Lynn had mentioned. If you look back at Curtiss-Wright historically, we're probably about 6%-6.5% of sales and spend in R&D, the IR&D and the CR&D. With the $20 million that Lynn had mentioned that we spent this last year, we were still able to provide margin expansion during that year. And with the $20 million that we're targeting incremental again this year, we're targeting operating margin expansion. You know, and that's going to put us over 6.5% of sales this year. So we're really starting to kind of accelerate our investments to stimulate organic growth in these great technologies that Lynn's referring to.
You know, but when you're in growth mode, you know, you have to be very, very focused to make sure that this money is being spent effectively. You know, it's the same way that we approach all of our capital allocation decisions. We're looking at the investments that we're making at a project or program level. We're looking at the revenue impact upon the organization. We're looking at the operating margin impact. We evaluate KPIs and IRRs and NPVs and paybacks and ROICs to make sure that these investments are going to pay off. I think, yeah, we get a common question that we get is, well, when are we going to see it? Well, 11% growth is pretty darn good and 10% of that was organic. We feel like we're starting to see that within our KPIs.
But, you know, as you spend IR&D just generally, you know, you would say that the things that we're spending our money on now will turn into profitable production revenues beyond 2024. You know, it's our internal investments to seize those technologies and opportunities that are out there. And then CR&D, as we're increasing that, the contract R&D, we're seeing that impact right now, right? But it's at compressed margins. You know, I'd rather have somebody pay for the R&D so long as I can own the technology at the end of the day. But we're seeing that impact now. And more importantly, that will also turn into very profitable production revenues in the future. And I think it depends on the market and where you are that, you know, how quickly that converts.
You know, you look at the Naval and Power segment. These are long-lived platforms. Sometimes you're investing 10 years ahead, right? In other, in other areas, it could be, you know, one to two years. We're seeing it in our results. We're really excited about it. You know, despite those investments, margin continues to expand.
Okay. Great. One of the themes that's emerged in some of the conversations I've had with aerospace and defense companies here at the conference thus far has been around the security situation in Europe. And I had one of the CEOs that had just come back from the Munich Security Conference. I think my mic is cutting out a little bit there. I'll try to face this straight away. So I'm not ignoring you. But I think the only way my mic is going to work is if I'm facing this way. I'll do this. And I had dinner last night with one of the large cap prime contractors, as well.
So the guy that had, the gentleman that had come back from the security conference was suggesting, boy, it seems like there is, you know, the half the countries in NATO that aren't spending 2% of GDP are going to giddy up and get there. So certainly we're going to see an acceleration of spending in Europe. And then a large cap prime that I was with last night suggested that they are seeing the aperture open a little on the willingness of European countries to engage with U.S. companies directly, in light of the fact that they need capabilities quickly. And they may not have the industrial base over there to get it done as quickly as they would perhaps like.
The question to you is, maybe you could talk a little bit about some of the exposure that you have in the European market and whether you have the opportunity here to have this be kind of a, I don't want to call it an unexpected, you know, growth vector. Maybe, maybe it wouldn't surprise you, but maybe it would surprise some of us on the outside that didn't really fully appreciate kind of the activity levels that you have going on over in Europe.
Yeah. So maybe I'll talk to some of the places where we're most active and where we're seeing the pull in that and then ask Chris to talk through maybe some of the numbers that we have already experienced in that and what we see going forward. And so this has been a good area for us for sure and driven some nice growth that I'll leave for Chris to speak to. I will say broadly, you know, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and there was a quick punch of like the spending is going to come, that is not, it has not come as rapidly as I think everyone has come. So I think the momentum is really early days of building of them truly spending that money in, you know, us seeing the uptick of that. And it's already been significant to us.
I think it's got a lot of growth areas to go. You know, I'll touch on a few areas. I mean, we really can see that content quite broadly. I mean, we sell our defense electronic COTS content. We have a very active sales team in Europe and sell across the NATO countries and have, you know, very much, you know, are part of the platforms that are built in Europe and sell, you know, those COTS supplies directly into Europe for that. We have our turret stabilization business, which is a high-power electronics, control type of application, has really largely a European footprint, is where they have always built their business.
We've built up great partnerships across BAE and Rheinmetall, you know, really kind of, you know, prior to these, you know, the invasion in 2022 and are their, you know, selected partner for a variety of subsystems. And they're obviously a, you know, a critical supplier across Europe. And, you know, of course, as these countries want to spend their money and are being pushed to spend their full 2% or Poland spends 3%, you know, some even over, you know, they want to drive jobs in their country. So where they can build, you know, spend the dollars and build out their own industrial base, we're pragmatic. They want to do that. And that's largely in ground vehicles is the belief of that. They're not going to go in and, you know, design a new jet. I mean, there's Euro fighter, but, you know, like largely.
So some of those dollars come back to the primes here in the U.S. and we're across virtually every platform that the U.S. provides. So we will get dollars that way, but also, you know, in-country directly. And then even, you know, other areas such as our tactical communications equipment where they've really been, you know, selling into the U.S. government, the Army and the Marines predominantly, and have built up, you know, fantastic growth, you know, in those end markets. We started seeing even last year more of a pull from the NATO countries, some furnished through the U.S. government, and then some pulled directly out of the NATO countries for that, that communications equipment. So I think like that's another area that's going to continue to grow.
And then we've always sold, you know, a lot of the equipment we have for landing, in high seas, helicopters and such on jets in high sea states. They've always had an international footprint and is, you know, not just the situation in Europe, but the situation in the Asia-Pacific grows and the, you know, the focus on navies across those countries. That's great for, for that business. And our recent ESCO, the arresting systems business, that we acquired in the summer of 2022, you know, they've always were 75% overseas, 25% U.S. And they've really seen an explosion in their order book.
I think, you know, I think pragmatically of things that we sell that can directly lead to, you know, NATO countries, you know, improving their defensive posture, you know. The communication equipment is you have it, you can deploy it with soldiers, you can use it that day, you know, right away. And then the landing equipment for aircraft so you can set up forward battlefields and be able to have your aircraft be part of the battlefield. And so I think those two areas have just seen, you know, dynamic growth. And I think they're our front end of how we can deploy equipment. But all those electronics, the naval ship capabilities, all that other stuff is still a, you know, a growing momentum for us.
So I think we have a lot of equipment that is really going to, you know, benefit as, as these spendings, you know, do take stronger hold, you know, in the years to come. With that, maybe Chris can talk about some of the numbers that, you know, we have experienced.
Sure. I'll just, I'll try to be brief with this. So our Foreign Military Sales, which we categorize as sales directly to foreign governments or directly to foreign customers, excluding those sales that we have to primes that go overseas. So we have 35 Stryker platforms, various other domestic, domestic platforms going overseas. Our FMS sales are about 8%-9% of our sales across the organization. And this last year, we saw our FMS sales grow 20%. So it was a pretty big jump forward. You know, we had, you know, broad improvements across, our Defense Electronics portfolio and Foreign Military Sales serving all three of the, you know, naval, aero ground defense markets. We also saw increased arresting systems. We saw increases of, you know, turret drive stabilization systems this, this last year. So a big, a big boost, you know.
Quite frankly, it was great to see when we got to year-end. I didn't think it would come, you know, that quickly. But I agree with Lynn. I think there's a lot more to come in that regard and companies are really, countries are really just starting to ramp up in terms of their spending. As we go into this year, you know, the guide that we have for Foreign Military Sales is going to be a mid-single-digit growth rate now. There's going to be strong sales underneath that in aircraft handling systems supporting, you know, naval markets. And then there'll also be, you know, some improvements in tactical communications that we have overseas. But we grew so strong this last year in our aircraft arresting systems and aero defense markets. It was greater than 20% in that market alone.
That's going to level off a little bit this year. And then these turret drive stabilization systems programs can be a little bit lumpy. So this will be kind of maybe a flatter year for that as well. So mid-single digit growth, you know, coming into the year and, and optimistic about, you know, where our portfolio is going to take us in the future.
Right. Right. Okay. Good. So that, that theme continues essentially is what I'm hearing. Yeah. Across more companies in the ecosystem. Maybe we could talk a little bit about, I guess it's kind of in risks and opportunities, but I want to put this in the context of the, the backlog. You talked about having record backlog.
Yes.
I think that's the way you described it. That's a pretty common statement that I hear from most aerospace and defense companies. Good reason, right? We're seeing lots of demand on the commercial side, lots of demand on the defense side. What we've learned, however, over the last couple of years is that there's maybe a little bit, there has been a little bit more risk in that backlog than I think what people would have, you know, otherwise thought to be true if this was five years ago, pre-pandemic. That backlog is, those risks have manifested themselves through the supply chain bottlenecks and led to higher cost inflationary pressures on labor that have led to higher costs, particularly for companies that are operating on firm fixed price development programs.
So maybe you could just talk a little bit about your backlog, how it's balanced from a risk and opportunity perspective. And you know, kind of the dynamics around the idea of a firm fixed price development program. You just take that completely off the table if there aren't any of those kinds of things for industries. But you know, those that are going to come in from the outside see record backlog, aerospace and defense company. How do I know what are the risks and opportunities are in that backlog?
Okay. Yeah. So, you know, maybe another question I'll tag team with Chris to give some of the specifics about how we manage our contracts and approach taking these larger contracts. You know, when I think of, of risks in our business, you know, there's a variety of things that we are focused on. And, you know, I'm very conscious that, you know, you know, we have the continuing resolution. We have the need for staffing. I mean, there's lots of things. But, you know, we have, as I talked last year, we increased our engineering spend by $20 million and, you know, another $20 million this year.
So we're taking on a lot of big, meaningful development programs, you know, some of this in the, you know, new nuclear development area, you know, some big projects with our navy as we move towards next generation ships, the subsea projects with Petrobras. I mean, these are big, complicated engineering projects. So it's something that has been an area of continuous improvement for us is to, our approach is to provide oversight and make sure we're analyzing the risks in these, in these contracts, managing them and, you know, continuing knocking down, you know, those risk items and buffering ourselves financially that, you know, we're, we're not going to get bit by these things. And you can never say never, but I feel like, you know, we've got a good handle on it.
You know, our approach to taking, you know, these larger contracts, a lot of this isn't new to Curtiss-Wright. I think we've had pretty good approaches. Maybe I'll talk, we can just turn it over to Chris to talk about some of the ways we enter these contracts.
Sure. So, yeah, when we go through each of these reviews of the programs and projects before we make the investment, I mean, it's a very thorough technological review. It's a very thorough financial review. You know, and if it's something that we're getting into a contract for that's, we'll call it more experimental or more developmental to Curtiss-Wright and something that we're, you know, is less, you know, something that we don't do on the regular, you know, we address that in the risk of the proposal and our pricing. And, you know, we enter that negotiation with the customer with that in mind. Whereas, you know, we do have some development contracts that are a little bit more simplistic and we, you know, we can handle that way as well. We don't do very many cost type contracts across the organization.
Most of what we do is on a fixed price basis. I think, you know, there are advantages and disadvantages, right, for those, you know, you've heard a lot from some of the primes as to, hey, we're not going the fixed price route. But, I think, you know, by and large in the 14 years that I've been here at Curtiss-Wright, we execute very, very well on these contracts. I mean, in the time that I've been here, maybe a small handful have actually, you know, been, you know, lost contracts in that time and certainly nothing that's been material. So the team does a really good job at assessing the requirements, pricing accordingly, and then executing to those contracts. I think that's very important. You have to know what your capabilities are and, and not get too far out in front of things.
I mean, if we were to, you know, get into something that was highly experimental, yeah, I think a cost type contract could be warranted, but you have to be careful sometimes in what you ask for because cost type contracts generally come with lower margins. So, you know, if you believe in yourself and you understand the products that you're working with and are good engineers, which we do, you generally execute very well on those fixed price contracts. So, I think, all in all.
The other thing I would just jumping back in for a second is say that, you know, on some of the larger multi-year contracts that we take, we have very good processes for locking in our supply chain ahead of taking those contracts. So, you know, we don't have, you know, inflationary pressures that are eating away at our margins. I can't say never, but in the vast, vast majority, you know, we're very purposeful about, you know, when we do take these larger multi-year fixed price contracts that we know our cost base.
That's a good, that's a good point. We have about 70% of our costs locked in under contracts at any point in time on the supply chain.
Right. Right. Okay. Good.
It's something we watch. I don't want to be dismissive of it. I don't want the tone to have that. It is something that, you know, is something that we're very conscious of, but I think we're doing the right things to manage it.
Right. Right. Okay. Good. Maybe just going back to 2024, maybe the nearer term, things just kind of, risks and opportunities for the, the guidance for this year, kind of the key watch items that you think, you know, you're going to be paying particular attention to. I know we've got the potential for a CR to continue to, I don't know, exist, I guess, for lack of a better word.
Turn into a sequestration.
Yeah. Exactly. Yeah.
Yeah. So, I mean, honestly, watching the defense budget, it's our largest end market. You know, it's over half of the business. You know, is a top watch item. You know, we were in, obviously, we'd only put our guidance out a couple weeks ago and we are where we are. So we feel we've positioned ourselves with our guidance to, you know, be able to play out the different scenarios of, you know, we do stay in the CR for the full year. And so, you know, the range of the guidance, you know, probably if we stay in the CR for the whole year, we'll, you know, be more towards the bottom of the guidance, but, you know, hopefully not. Even across our Defense Electronics, you know, we guided it 5%-7%.
And, you know, we had a great booking year in Defense Electronics last year, booked $936 million worth of business. And, you know, the middle of the guide is $865 million. So obviously we're well prepared, you know, more than, I think, for those of you who followed us for a while in 2022 and we had the very long CR that went on 180 days, you know, it, you know, we dropped our guidance in Defense Electronics that year, you know, as a result, you know, largely somewhat supply chain, but also the CR. And I think we've buffered ourselves, you know, in that situation and the supply chain is entirely different now than it was in 2022. And so, that's really one of our top watch items is really what's going on with the defense budget.
You know, our another watch item for us is our talent management and, you know, the ability to attract new talent. That we increased our headcount last year, almost 500 people. You know, we still have attrition in the business underneath that. So you have to overcome the attrition and then drive new heads and then, you know, make sure we're onboarding those people. We're training them up. You know, we're making sure we hold our efficiency metrics and of our current open heads, which is, you know, down slightly. I think last year I mentioned a couple of times we had over 500 open heads. We're currently just under 400 open heads across the organization. That's a lot of people we need to bring into the businesses.
About a quarter of those are engineers that we need to hire to execute on some of the project work that, you know, we're endeavoring on. So that's, you know, our ability to attract that talent and making sure we're the kind of business that, you know, people want to come work for is, you know, a top focus area. As we just talked, you know, watching the execution on these, you know, some of these really larger development opportunities is something that is, you know, a watch item for us. We do watch, you know, a few of our businesses; business areas are a little bit more economically sensitive. So some of our industrial businesses and our process valves.
So watching the order books in those, you know, we feel as if we have, you know, pretty good stability and visibility as to what's going on across those and, you know, anticipating very modest growth, low single digits across those, which is largely, you know, being driven by new product introductions. So even if the markets are not showing much growth, you know, we are thinking we can drive some growth through some of our new product introductions. And it's interesting in the vehicle space, you know, you can go to the ACT and the LMC forecasts and see some fairly negative perspectives. I think that's, you know, we're hearing slightly different messages from OEM partners and what they're anticipating. So I think we're a little more positive than what comes out of those forecasts.
But, again, really, you know, you know, driving a lot of new product introductions. And then, you know, even the Boeing 737 situation being on, you know, a production hold, that's a couple percentage points of headwind for our commercial aerospace business that's in our guidance. But that could be a tailwind if, you know, they would be allowed to ramp back up production, you know, in this calendar year. So that's, and I could keep going, but I don't want to scare everyone away.
Yeah. No, fair enough. You know, maybe just double click on the 37. You said a couple points of headwind, but I'm trying to think of why that would necessarily be the case because I suspect that from a production perspective, there'll be.
Well, if they would have ramped the way they anticipated.
Oh, so your growth would have otherwise been higher.
Otherwise would have been higher. Sorry if that was too cut out clearly.
Just as a data point, last year we grew at 18%. This year we're guiding 10%-12%. We would probably be guiding in the mid-teens if it were not for the FAA's halt in Boeing 737 production.
Okay. Great. In rough order of magnitude, I know that they're talking about, you know, they came into the year at 38. They're producing something below that at this point. Is that the same case for you or, yeah, so you're producing below the 38 a month now?
Yeah. That's fair. You know, I mean, we've got a fairly diversified product portfolio. We're selling actuation sensors, surface technologies, you know, electronics onto these platforms. So they're not all at the same production pace, but on average, that's a fair assessment.
Yeah. Okay. They still haven't changed their master schedule, right? They still want everybody to be kind of, you know, the North Star kind of thing getting up into the 50 range in that 2025, 2026 timeframe. Yeah. Just a question of when, I guess, right? Yeah.
Yeah.
If the future's bright, they just have to, we've got to get through this issue. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Maybe we'll get to commercial air in a little bit longer. I do in a bit more detail, you know. I want to go maybe flip back to some of the comments you made earlier about the nuclear opportunity and kind of give us an update on, you know, where you play in the commercial market in particular. And you mentioned that, you know, public perception of that technology seems to be getting a little bit better.
Yes.
So how do you see this market playing out over the next, again, this has got to be a long cycle, right? 10, 20 years, right? So talk about where, where you play, who your partners are there and then kind of what you, how you are all viewing, the opportunity set, particularly set against the investments that you're making.
Yeah. So it's, I mean, it's a really exciting portion of our portfolio and we kind of think of it in kind of two or three buckets. And one is the aftermarket, which I'll let Chris maybe talk to some of the numbers there, which is here and now. I mean, it's growth now. It's not something that's, you know, a decade out. And then there's the new build. And so I'm going to give Chris to talk about some of the aftermarket numbers and then maybe I'll talk through the various ways we play in the new build and are building our presence there.
Right. Great.
So there's a lot of strong forces that play. Lynn had mentioned, you know, decarbonization, energy independence is very important for Eastern Europe. You know, but also here in the U.S., there's a lot of legislative support, whether it's coming through the Inflation Reduction Act or the Infrastructure Bill. There are these specific programs that have dedicated billions of dollars towards the preservation of the existing nuclear operating reactor fleet. And those programs have helped to already prevent the shutdown of plants in California and Illinois. And now they're even talking about a $1.5 billion loan to restart the shuttered plant that's in Michigan, Palisades, which would be the first time in U.S. history that a closed plant has ever been fully reopened. So these programs are having a dramatic impact on the spending habits of the fleet operators.
You know, we're looking at a mid-single-digit growth rate for this year. I think, you know, we're optimistic as these plant owners become more familiar with the credits and funding that's available to them, that that's only going to further enhance this. I mean, 2023 was the first time that we have ever faced or that I have faced, I think, in the last, you know, 10 years, a year where we didn't shut down a plant. So, you know, post-Fukushima, we were growing at low single digits with plants closing down and consolidation in the industry. So as you look forward, you say, well, take that headwind away from you and you have an opportunity going forward.
So I think, you know, that provides a very strong base and foundation to our business to then build upon in some of these development or more exciting opportunities that we have in SMRs and the AP1000, which Lynn can talk about.
Can I just ask a quick aftermarket question before you talk about the new builds? So you mentioned, I think, Diablo Canyon was what you were referring to in California, right? So how, so you've got that facility, I don't remember when it was built, but I'm guessing it's one of the first ones.
Well, it's just, it's an early one because it's just at that process of going from its 60- to 80-year life extension. And so that's, you know, usually they're shutting them down when they're making that, when their prior license is starting to expire at that, you know, as they're approaching that 60-year life that, so there's a fair amount of work they got to do when they go from the 60 to 80, which all the stuff Chris was talking about is really a lot of funding that's making it economically viable. You know, A, the social pressures to keep the carbon-free energy on the grid, but also economically viable through some of the bills that have been passed through Congress to head into those life extensions. And that's not just, you know, that's a ramp from the normal maintenance.
And also, you know, these plants that were intending to shut down, right? They were probably doing the minimal maintenance that they could do. And now you've got some catch-up to do. So it's just really, you know, a great force. And we see, you know, some plants starting to make the decisions to do things like modernize their instrumentation and control systems, which are, you know, much bigger investments than just the normal routine maintenance where you have to go in and inspect and do things. And so, you know, we're, it's, it's a pretty dynamic opportunity for us.
The other thing I would just mention in the aftermarket and, you know, I think over the past year we've talked about, you know, us pursuing content in France, which is, you know, another, you know, they have a very significant amount of their energy comes from the nuclear fleet. So that's a journey. It's not something that happens right away, but we're engaged with them and, you know, have hosted them in our factories and are making progress in that area. Interestingly, another area that we're pursuing that's longer term than France even is, you know, all these Eastern European countries that have nuclear power plants are largely Russian nuclear power plants. Well, they don't want support out of Russia anymore.
And we're early days of engagement with them to say, how can we be in those plants and be your aftermarket partner in those plants to do work? So that's a very TBD. We'll see where that goes. But, again, things we're exploring as a business for, you know, how to drive our aftermarket business.
How common are, you know, Russian designs versus Western?
It's funny. So I was talking to the gentleman that runs our, a very large portion of our nuclear business and he said it's, it's striking. They traveled to Czech Republic and toured plants and did things to see hands-on what it would mean to be in these plants. And he says, you never know the difference. That it's very, very, very similar. So.
Huh. Fascinating.
Yeah. I don't know. I don't think anybody had an expectation of what they would find. So it was kind of interesting, the revelation with that. So.
Yeah. Okay. Great. So on the new build side.
Yes. Maybe talking to the new build. So when we think of our new build, and again, for people, some of you maybe know Curtiss-Wright and this is, you know, old news, but, you know, there's kind of two parts of it that, you know, we're a major supplier of content on the Westinghouse's AP1000 power plants, nuclear reactor coolant pumps across those. So Westinghouse has really done a fantastic job. We have a great partnership with them and very closely aligned with them. And they've done a really strong job over the past several years of getting into Eastern Europe and, you know, promoting the technology, which it's called Generation III+. And so it's the safest current generation, large plant that's available, you know, in the world and promoting their content and, you know, having success across a whole variety of countries.
You know, Poland's declared they're going to build AP1000s. Ukraine has declared they're going to build AP1000s. There was an announcement just yesterday or the day before out of the Netherlands. Bulgaria has announced that, you know, they're going to, you know, they're trying to negotiate a contract for their first two AP1000s. So, you know, all in all, you know, we see an opportunity for, you know, 20-25 AP1000s being built, you know, with starts in this decade, you know, going online throughout the 2030s. And this is somewhere, you know, even if Westinghouse doesn't, you know, only wins, you know, half or 60% of those, it's $1 billion-$1.5 billion of business coming to Curtiss-Wright.
And again, for some of you, you know, we took our last major content, was taken back in the mid-teens and that contract, you know, has wound down and we have, you know, we took the final $few million of revenue last year. We have no revenue in this area this year. So this is an entire, you know, an entire growth market for Curtiss-Wright as these AP1000 orders begin to flow. And, you know, we, you know, talked about timelines, you know, starting two years ago and saying three-five years. Last year we said two-four years. We're now officially saying one-three years. So, I mean, to which, you know, if for anyone who's done things in the nuclear industry to have timelines hold, that's a great thing. So we'll just be happy with that and, you know, really feel optimistic.
I mean, this is game-changing business for Curtiss-Wright. I mean, you know, an AP1000 will have, you know, our content is well over $100 million per plant, you know, as they're building those out. And so, you know, good business for Curtiss-Wright. So that's one portion of, you know, how, you know, the move towards commercial power with new builds, you know, will provide, you know, great tailwinds for Curtiss-Wright, you know, throughout the end of this decade. The other area is around the Gen 4 new advanced reactor program. So kind of a new approach to building out nuclear power that's, you know, the intent is to take away some of the risks and overages that have been in these larger projects that have not gone well and gone, you know, significantly over budget.
It's just a concept that the plants will be built more into factory and basically assembled on site. I mean, there's still work to do on the site, but it's more not, you know, piecemeal coming in in this huge construction project. You know, this was really launched back in 2020 in earnest. It's been building, you know, for longer than that, but when the government put forward the ARDP program and picked two companies that they would provide funding to, a matching funding approach. And that was X-energy and TerraPower were the winners of that. And, you know, we've been open about our content with X-energy. We have over $100 million of content for their instantiation of a plant. And so we're very pleased with our partnership with them. We've won, announced system with TerraPower.
We've won the reactor protection system, which is basically controls overall the safety of the plant. No dollar content in that. TerraPower has asked us not to speak about that. So of course we're not going to and other pursuits with them. But even more broadly than those two, you know, GE Hitachi is building an SMR, Rolls-Royce, NuScale, and Westinghouse has a small modular reactor, the AP300. And there's just great advancements across all of these. You know, we're pursuing content on every one of the SMRs and we think it's a real investment opportunity in Curtiss-Wright in that we're not one instantiation of a plant. We're not just AP1000. We're not just one of the SMRs, but we really are working very hard to assure we have meaningful content across all those platforms.
And so, as you know, no one is going to win the world. I mean, there's going to be different winners, you know, in different countries and you can already see that. I mean, Poland has declared they're going to build 24 GE Hitachi plants. The U.K. just announced they're going to build four AP300s. So, you know, these, these different companies are going to win. The U.K. is also looking broadly that Rolls-Royce will probably be a significant player. And, you know, we're, you know, indicating that, you know, we anticipate our, our content will be anywhere from $10 million to that $100 million+ kind of range across all these different plants. And we believe we have a role to play on all of the providers.
And so, you know, there was a study in the U.S., a couple of years ago across energy producers in the U.S. that indicated they have plans to build 300 SMRs by 2050. And so if you take our content, that half of, and that's only half of energy producers in just the U.S., Canada is already also making indications they're going to build out some SMRs. And then, the incremental opportunity across, you know, process industries that require high temperature steam, you know, it's, it's, there's a lot of zeros in the potential for the market size. And so, you know, we're focused on today of being a great partner with these guys, helping deliver the content that gets their first reactors built online, you know, performing safely. And it's just a fantastic opportunity for Curtiss-Wright.
That's awesome. I think we're going to leave on a high note because I just realized that we've counted up seven minutes and gone over.
I can't see. I don't know what's going on.
I looked down and we were already at +2 and I'm like, oh my God, how did we do that? So I want to thank you both for joining us. I really appreciate you coming down and supporting the conference and I hope you have a good rest of your morning and afternoon.
Yeah. Thank you very much.
All right. Thanks, everybody.