Good morning, and welcome to Deere's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Your lines have been placed on listen only until the question and answer session of today's conference. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Tony Heagle, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you.
You may begin.
Good morning. Also on the call today are Jim Field, our Chief Financial Officer Marie Zeigler, Vice President and Treasurer and Susan Carlix, Manager, Investor Communications. Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's 2nd quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our markets and the outlook for the remainder of 2012. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning.
They can be accessed on our website at www.johndeere.com. First, a reminder, this call is being broadcast live on the Internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere and Thomson Reuters. Any other use, recording or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without expressed written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q and A, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call. This call includes forward looking comments concerning the company's projections, plans and objectives for the future that are subject to important risks and uncertainties.
Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8 ks and periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America of on our website at www.johndeere.com/financialreports under Other Financial Information. Now here's Susan.
Thank you, Tony. Let's begin on Slide 3. John Deere's 2nd quarter was 1 for the record books. Income and sales both reached all time quarterly highs. It was the 10th straight time we reported higher earnings on a quarter over quarter basis and our 8th consecutive record quarter.
Quarterly net income surpassed $1,000,000,000 for the first time. Revenues also broke new ground topping the 10,000,000,000 dollars mark. Another category that hit a new quarterly high was economic profit for SBA, which was greater in the 2nd quarter than in all but 4 full previous peers. Ag and turf led the way, but our other divisions, divisions, Construction and Forestry and Financial Services, contributed to our performance as well. As cited in our earnings announcement, John Deere is continuing to benefit from a global farm economy that CEO Sam Allen said is showing strength and endurance.
This has led to a big increase in demand for our products. And we have raised our full year earnings forecast to about $3,350,000,000 It was, in summary, a record breaking quarter and one that put Steers squarely on course for another terrific year. Now let's look at the 2nd quarter in detail starting on Slide 4. Net sales and revenues were up 12 percent to 10 attributable to Deere and Company was about $1,100,000,000 On Slide 5, total worldwide equipment operations net sales were $9,400,000,000 up 13% quarter over quarter. At constant exchange, sales were up 15%.
Price realization in the quarter was positive by 5 points. Turning to a review of our individual businesses. Let's start with Agriculture and Chirp on Slide 6. Sales were up 11% in the quarter. Operating profit was $1,400,000,000 resulting in a record setting 18% operating margin.
Results benefited from higher shipment volumes and price realizations, partially offset by increased production costs related to new products and engine emission requirements, as well as higher raw material costs and research and development expenses. Before we review the industry sales outlook, let's look at some of the fundamentals affecting the Ag Ag remain strong through 2012, driven by global demand and tight supply. Also shown are the current 2012, 2013 crop prices. Keep in mind, the underlying assumption is for more normal higher yields. However, it is impossible to determine the outcome of the 2012, 2013 crop year in May as there are many unknowns.
For example, good weather in the Midwest allowed for early planting, but the summer and fall growing Central U. S. And drought conditions are emerging in the Southeast. Slide 8 highlights cash receipts. 2011 U.
S. Farm cash receipts were at record levels, about 14% higher than the previous record in 2,008. The 2012 cash receipts number is now forecast to set another record, slightly above last year's level. As a reminder, in our modeling, current and prior year cash receipts are the primary driver of equipment purchases in the U. S.
Market. We do see increased demand as illustrated by our strong outlook. Our base case on acres planted and yields for the 20 twelve-twenty thirteen crop year is shown on Slide 9. Driven by strong global demand and low carryover stocks, our base case calls for an an increase in total planted acres this crop year. With global carryover stocks at low levels, corn prices due to 2011, 2012 crop year are forecast to remain at historically high levels.
This has prompted a forecast increase of about 4% more corn acres being planted in the 20 twelve-twenty 13 crop year. Continued exports China and the gradual growth in ethanol demand also are factors. Soybean planted area is expected to be flat in 2012, while exports increased due to strong demand from China and the weather impacted South America. Higher wheat acreage is forecast with domestic usage and exports expected to expand. As a result of poor weather in West Texas and the Southeast, we expect cotton acres planted to go down in the 20 twelve-twenty 13 crop acres planted yield and price are very preliminary at this point and will be determined by many factors, including weather.
Before moving on, we've talked about commodity price estimates, cash receipts, planted acres and yield. It's too early in the year to know final outcomes for any of these variables. Cash receipts are a function of price and quantity. With projected yields and acres up despite lower corn prices, the projected revenue from corn and beans is virtually identical between last crop year and the coming crop year. With cash receipts at record levels, this bodes well for future farm prospects.
Our economic outlook for the EU 27 is on Slide 10. We see strength in the European Ag sector continuing, with 20 12 farm income 12 farm income expected to remain at very attractive levels supported by good commodity prices. Equipment demand continues strong with a favorable outlook in Northern Europe where farm sizes are larger, offsetting weakness in the South. On Slide 11, you'll see the economic fundamentals outlined for a few of our other targeted growth markets. Slide 12 illustrates the value of agricultural production in Brazil.
This is a good proxy for the health of agribusiness. It encompasses over 20 different crops and have a high correlation to tractor sales over time. As you can see in the graph on the left, the 2012 value of ag production in Brazil is expected to increase 2.7% over the 20 11 level. Our 2012 ag and turf industry outlooks are summarized on Slide 13. The outlook industry sales in the U.
S. And Canada is now up more than 10%, which is an increase from our last forecast. Remember, going into the year, we were looking for sales to be up 5% to 10% and we're saying up about 10% last quarter. Demand continues to be strong, especially for high horsepower equipment, a reflection in the global farm economy. And used equipment levels are low.
In fact, we ended the 2nd quarter with used tractor and combine levels well below a year ago. The EU 27 industry outlook remains flat to up 5 percent from the attractive levels of 2011. The improvement is due to favorable conditions in the grain, livestock and dairy sectors, which are outweighing general economic concerns. Our 2012 industry outlook in the CIS countries is unchanged from last quarter. It calls for considerably higher growth after last year's notable rise.
In Asia, we still expect sales to increase by moderate amount. After several years of strong growth, the tractor market in India is forecast to be down slightly. We continue to see strength in China. Industry sales of tractors and combines in America are now expected to be down 5% to 10% in relation to the strong levels of 2011 due to uncertainty in Argentina and drought in parts of the region. Remember, a South American outlook is and combines only.
It excludes cotton, sugarcane harvesting equipment, sprayers and planters, all categories in which Deere has a strong presence. Turning to another product category, we expect industry retail sales of turf and utility the early arrival of spring, sales of riding lawn and commercial mowing equipment have gotten off to a strong start. We're also seeing continued favorable acceptance of our new utility vehicles. On Slide 14, in March, Deere announced the 3rd capacity expansion in 4 years at our flagship tractor factory in Waterloo, Iowa. As the global farm economy continues to show impressive strength and endurance, ongoing investments in Waterloo will help Deere meet future demand.
As outlined on the slide, Waterloo has a truly global market footprint. By late 20 13, when the latest expansion is complete, manufacturing capacity for large tractors in Waterloo will have increased by more than 50% since 2008. Putting this all together on Slide 15, we continue to forecast fiscal year up about 15%. This includes negative currency translation of about 3 points. Full year operating margin for the on our part in light of widespread product transitions to interim Tier 4 engines and our global growth initiatives.
Let's focus now on Construction and Forestry on Slide 16. Net sales were up 26% in the Operating profit was $119,000,000 helped by price realization and higher shipment volumes, partially offset by higher costs and unfavorable product mix. For the quarter, C and F had a 7% operating margin and a 4% incremental margin. There are 3 major factors to consider when analyzing the division's results. First, there was a negative mix of product this quarter compared to the Q2 of 2011.
Wheel loaders and crawlers, 2 of our higher margin products converted to Interim Tier 4 engines this quarter, impacting production levels. With those 2 lying down for a time, our sales were more heavily influenced by partner products on which we don't benefit from any manufacturing absorption. In addition, in May 2011, the SAP software conversion was implemented essentially shutting down our 2 lotteries for a time. That meant production was unusually high in last year's Q2, as dealers placed orders early to ensure delivery of machines prior to the SAP changeover. Another factor underlying C and F margins for the quarter has to do with growth.
The division has 2 new factories going up in Brazil and one in China. The facility in India is still in its infancy stage. There's a lot of money being spent on growth right now with few sales to offset the costs. And 3rd, results were affected by R and D expenses related to new products in support of global growth and interim Tier 4 transitions. Other costs shown on the slide were also higher in the quarter compared to Q2 2011.
Bottom line, CNS faced some tough comparisons in the quarter due to the factors just noted, but all correct themselves over the long run. In the quarter, CNS margins include about 5 negative points for let's look at the economic indicators on the bottom part of the slide. While stable or improved from last quarter, the underlying fundamentals still don't point to strong recovery. Overall economic growth continues at a slow pace despite promising that things are picking up. C and F continues to benefit from improved sales to independent rental companies as they record higher utilization levels and rental rates.
We also see strength in the energy, material handling, industrial and international sectors. Also encouraging, Deere dealers continue to see an improvement in their rental and used equipment markets. Net sales in Construction and Forestry are now forecast to be up about 20% in fiscal 2012 with negative currency translation of about 1 point. Global forestry markets are now expected to be flat in 2012 from the strong full year operating margin is projected to be about 8%. Our final Tier 4 engine emission solution introduced in March is on Slide 18.
We will continue with our systematic building block approach, For interim Tier 4 Stage 3B, we added a smart exhaust filter to our proven cooled EGR solution. And to meet final Tier 4 Stage 4 compliance, we will add SCR to our EGR and smart exhaust filter. With the combination of cooled EGR, smart exhaust filter and urea, we expect to deliver the best fluid economy in the industry in many applications, equal to or better than the John Deere Interim Tier 4. Not only is John Deere a leading off highway engine manufacturer, we also have the best in class dealer network standing with us to support this new engine technology. Let's move now to our financial services operations.
Slide 19 shows the financial services provision for credit losses as a percent of the total average owned portfolio. Year to date on an annualized basis, the provision is a mere 5 basis points. This reflects lower write offs, primarily in the Ag portfolio, as well as recoveries of prior year write offs and fewer repossessions. Our 2012 financial forecast contemplates a loss provision of about 20 3 basis points as a percent the 10 year average is about 34 basis points. Moving to Slide 20.
Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere and Company was $109,000,000 in the quarter versus $105,000,000 in 20 11. Net income benefited from growth in portfolio, partially offset by increased selling, administrative and general expenses. Looking ahead, we are now projecting worldwide financial services
net income attributable to Deere and
Company of about 12. The slight decrease from fiscal 2011 when income was $471,000,000 is mainly attributable to 2 things: increased selling, administrative and general expenses in support of the equipment operations global growth and narrower financing spreads. These items are being largely offset by growth in the portfolio. Now on Slide 21, let's look at receivables and inventories. For the company as a whole, receivables and inventories ended the 2nd quarter up about $2,300,000,000 compared with the Q2 of 2011.
That's equal to 36% of trailing 12 month sales, which is similar to what we have seen in other recent years of high equipment sales. To help put this increase into perspective, our implied sales guidance for the second half of the year is up nearly 18%. That means over $2,500,000,000 in additional shipments. Over 60% of the $2,300,000,000 year over year increase is in inventory. Inventory needed to meet shipment schedules in the second half of the year.
In addition, remember that shipments and retail activity were much more front end loaded last year due to interim and CNS SAP conversion. In response to 11. Let's turn now to raw material and logistics on Slide 22. 2nd quarter material costs were up about $185,000,000 over last year. A little over 3 4th of the $400,000,000 increase being forecast for the year occurred in the first half.
As we have shared in the past, changes in Deere's raw material costs tend to lag the market by 3 to 6 months depending on the type of commodity or contract. About 80% of the increase is for ag and turf and about 20% for
per CNF.
Finally, as we introduce new products and features to our growing customer base, the price cost of compliance with engine emission regulations in North America and Europe will be roughly $500,000,000 higher than 2011. Note however that the combined increase in material and interim Tier four product costs will be more than offset by what we are forecasting to be 4 points of price realization. Looking at R and D expense on Slide 23. R and D was up about 18% in the Q2 compared to the same period last year. Our 2012 forecast calls for R and D expense to be up about 13%.
As stated in previous quarters, R and D spending is expected to remain at high levels for the next few years as we continue product launches with interim Tier 4 and soon thereafter final Tier 4 engines. Also included is ongoing new product development expense for our growing global customer base. Moving now to Slide 24. SA and G expense for the equipment operations was up about 5% in the second quarter. Growth accounted for about 3 points of the increase.
Our fiscal year 2012 forecast calls for SA and G expense to be up about 11% with growth accounting for about 4 points and currency translation a negative 2 points. On Slide 20 5, you see our equipment operations history of strong cash flow. We are forecasting cash flow from illustrates the steady increases we have made in dividends paid to shareholders since 2003. In keeping with our use of cash priorities, we have consistently and moderately raised the dividend. In fact, the dividend has been raised 64% since introducing our revised John Deere strategy in 2010.
For those not familiar with the strategy, it is included in the appendix. On Slide 27, we outline our 2012 outlook for the remainder of the year. The 3rd quarter forecast calls for net sales to be up about 25% compared to the Q3 of 2011. Price realization is expected to be positive by about 4 points with currency translation being a negative 4 points. The net sales forecast for the full year is up about 15% compared to 2011 translated at constant exchange up about 18 points.
Price realization of 4 points will contribute to results. As stated in the press release, we have increased our full year 2012 net income forecast to about $3,350,000,000 as promising fundamentals are lending strong support to our plans for increased sales and profitability. In closing, 2012 is shaping up to be what Sam Allen called a year of outstanding performance. As we've stated in the past, promising fundamentals are lending strong support to the company's wide ranging plans for growth. We aim to capitalize on these trends through extensive investments in new products and additional capacity, a list that includes no fewer than a dozen major are essential to the success of our plans for driving sales and profits.
They also put Deere in a sound position to respond to society's needs for food, shelter and infrastructure, needs that are growing by the day. In our view, trends of this nature have power and persistence as well as a good deal of promise. We're confident they should prove highly rewarding to our customers and investors in the years ahead. Tony?
Tony? Thank you, Susan. Now we're ready to begin the Q and A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. But as a reminder, in consideration of others, please limit yourself to one question and one related follow-up.
If you have additional questions, we ask that you rejoin the queue. Operator?
Question comes from Henry Kern. Please state your company name.
Hey, good morning guys. It's UBS.
Hi, Henry. Good morning, Henry.
Wondering if you could talk about Europe, maybe the progress with your market share goals in Europe, the credit availability in the market and your thoughts on any risks to subsidies given recent elections in that key market?
Yes, it will I'll start with the credit availability. Credit still remains available and readily available in that market. As we've talked about in the past, the market in general is more affected negatively in the South, but the northern part of Europe, which tends to be stronger markets for deer, continues to be very strong. So as you see in our outlook, we continue to look for flat to up 5% in the market for the year.
There's been no change in government posturing or commentary on cap reform. So it continues to be strong in current year, next year and then starting in 2014, it is basically frozen at the level of payments, which are supportive from farm income, and it stays there through 2020. So there's been no change in that.
And then in terms of where we are, I would say with our plans in Europe, actually, I was just there a couple of weeks ago with Sam and reviewing the progress on implementing the dealer of tomorrow, which is an integral
track.
That's helpful. And on South America, could you talk about the competitive dynamics given the weaker forecast?
The weaker forecast really is more of a function of 2 things. Of course, there was some weather impact from the drought that affected both Southern Brazil and Argentina. But more importantly, we've lowered our outlook for Argentina specifically, basically through dealing with some challenges there around some of the government
policies. Thanks, Henry. Our next question comes from Eli Lustgarten. Please state your company name.
Longbow Securities. Good morning, everyone.
Hello. Hi, Eli.
Can we talk a little bit about production in the business? You had a hell of a second quarter, but volume was a little lighter than we expected, I think, versus all consensus in most numbers and profitability was sort of outstanding. Was some production shifted to the 3rd quarter? Was it always that way we didn't see any tonnage numbers this quarter? Could you give an idea of because it looks like you're going to have a bigger 3rd quarter than the 2nd quarter in AG.
Can you give some color of what's happening in the shipments? And profitability, I guess, you're implying in AG will be lower in the second half of the year than clearly than the Q2?
Yes. In terms of the second quarter being a little lower than the outlook we had given in February, really that's driven by 3 areas. You'd mentioned South America, Argentina in particular, was much lower than what we had anticipated. And then also Asia, so India and China both were lower in the quarter than what we had forecasted. Eli,
this is Jim. The way maybe another way to get at your question is if you kind of look at the first half of the year versus the second half, the second half versus the first half shipments are going to be up about 20%. But when you look at what's going on, absorption will be down $150,000,000 which we said is part of the issue why we've got the inventory built up at the 2nd quarter. Some of that's going to get released, obviously, a significant portion in the 3rd Q4. And so when you're doing the analysis on the first half versus second half, that absorption impact is a big portion of it.
The second piece of it, when you do that analysis is first half versus second half, we've given the SA and G guidance and you can see that that's up pretty significant in the second half if we're going to hit our SA and G guidance. And that really is a reflection of how we feel about the market conditions. We're investing in increased marketing expenses. Of course, there's an element of it that's variable related to service publications and all of that. But I would very much also read that in connection with the increased inventory levels that we're going to end the year of with the notion that Sam said that these trends are looking very enduring.
So thank you.
Okay.
And can we follow a little bit follow that up with talk about the Construction Forestry business. I guess, volume was stronger than what you expected, margins were a little bit weaker. You start to explain some of it. But are we going to begin to see some improvement in the second half of margins? I mean, your 8% implication says that we should have 8% margins in the second half versus roughly 8% in the first half.
So are we seeing better profitability and a better mix in the second half? Or what's going to what can we expect in the construction and forestry? And particularly, if we look out towards the end of the year, I mean, would volumes hold? Or is there any fear that the United Rentals still are overspending in the first half and not in the second half?
Sure. And as it relates to mix, maybe it would help to give a little bit more color on that. Some of the differences year over year in mix is, remember last year, we converted to SAP. So there was a ramp up of production ahead of that, knowing that the facilities would be shut down for a period of time. And so on our our core construction equipment products, production was heavier than normal last year and the margins are attractive on certainly on those products.
And then we also this year, those couple of those key construction products were going through interim Tier 4 conversion. So year over year, the production was lower on that product. And as a result, there was a higher level of partner product in the mix than what would be normally. So but again, from an order intake perspective, things are very positive and we feel pretty strongly about the second half
of the year for that division.
A lot of it's just mix and shifting of when that production is occurring year over year. Okay. As we move to the next question?
Our next question comes
excellent realization in the quarter.
Can you say more about the drivers of the acceleration that you saw? And with your U. S. Production rates rising in the back half of the year, I guess step us through why your guidance assumes pricing slows in the back half?
Our guidance for the full year is 4 points. We probably had a little bit of a favorable mix, but I wouldn't read anything into it. I think in terms of the timing of some of the product launches, so really no story there.
Can you say more about the mix in the quarter,
Marie? I think we've talked a little bit about the fact that maybe the most significant thing that we haven't addressed, let me start over, is in terms of our combines. Combines, as you may recall, last year, were very front end loaded. If you go back over on average over time, we have about 35% of our combine sales are shipped in the first half of the year and it's about 65% in the back half. Last year, we were fifty-fifty.
This year, it's more like 25%, 75%. So you've got a lot of these combines that are coming in the back half of the year for the Ag division. And that has to do really with the move to Interim Tier 4 and the way we managed our production to meet market needs and optimize our ability to serve our customers.
And then I would add, Jerry, because we could only give pricing in whole percentage increments, 50 basis points one way or another way can vacillate us to 4 or 5. So I think when Marisa, there's not a real story there. There's we continue to expect strong price realization and very good acceptance of our product. And of course, our guidance is 4 and we'd be delighted if it ends up at 5, but that's where we're at.
Thank you. Okay. Next caller.
Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann. Please state your company name. Hello? Please check your mute button. We're unable to hear you.
Why don't we go ahead and go to the next caller and then we'll try to get feedback in.
Our next question comes from Ann Duignan. Your company name.
Hi, JPMorgan.
Good morning. Good morning.
Good morning, guys. Can you talk a little bit about the changing practices in agriculture on the back of greater corn on corn acres and the increase in the total acres for crops? What that's doing to demand for things like large horsepower tractors, etcetera, etcetera? And then in conjunction with that, does that tie into your comments about ending the year with greater inventory? Can you talk about any forward outlook you have into I know Marie, you won't give guidance for 2013, but are you we heard from dealers last week that you're they were taking orders already for things like planters into 2013.
Could you just talk about what might be driving some of that in terms of the changing practices in the Midwest?
Okay. Ann, this is Jim. Why don't I start with the whole corn on corn question. Obviously, when you have corn on corn and to the extent that that is a long term shift in practices, it's nothing but positive for deer. It means more activity in the field because you're either going to have to come through with some tillage instrument to deal with the debris or you're going to have to put a chopper head on a combine and therefore the horsepower requirements for the combines, all other things being equal, would increase somewhat to deal with the increased load from the chopping head.
So that practice of corn on corn, which seems to be a positive and nearly and basically in every respect to Deere because it means more activity in the field, it means higher hours on tractors, all those sorts of things. In terms of the increased acreage, I think and what's going on in general, I think just speaks to our long term belief that the fundamental dynamics of the agricultural equipment businesses are very good and very positive with lots of positive macroeconomic tailwinds.
And maybe to follow on that Ben, the frustrating thing for us to understand the fundamentals is your commentary to investors that some of your end markets in the U. S. Are at 120% of normal. Can you talk about the conflict between both of those comments?
Well, the way first of all, it's really important for folks to understand how we establish normals. And that's a backward looking calculation, basically an average of the prior 7 years. So to the extent that you have a growing market, our measurements as a percent of normal are lagging they lag. And so they don't reflect that in the normals. And so but I would say a couple of other things that well, you're right.
You predicted quite correctly that Marie is not going to give you 2013 outlook. But look, we're bringing on capacity. We've got higher SA and G expenses in the second half of the year. We're building inventory and then with higher inventory. I think there's a reasonable inference that can be drawn as to what we think the prospects are for 2013.
Okay. I
hope that was helpful. Thank you, Ann. Thank you.
We'll go to the next caller, please.
Our next question comes from Rob Wertheimer. Please state your company name.
It's Critical Research Partners. Good morning, everybody. Just wanted to ask if you wouldn't mind about the state of the union on the construction forestry business. I asked this last quarter a little bit and I'm well aware that in the U. S.
We're still as an industry well below normal. But your revenues are hitting record highs. I'm just curious if that share gain in the U. S. Is that geographic expansion, if you could just give us a sense of how that business is trending geographicallywhat's going on there?
Yes. I mean, certainly, we've from a market share perspective, we have over recent years had taken some very good market share. As we may have you may have heard us talk about before today, we are a clear number 2 provider in the U. S. And Canada markets on construction.
And actually, our market share, while we don't disclose that in this region, we are the clear we are actually closer to number 1 than what number 3 would be to us. Other thing we've done in that process is a much broader brought a much broader portfolio to the market. We've also talked a lot about price realization over the last decade, averaging our 3 points of positive price realization year over year for the company. And of course, C and F has contributed to that as well. So as you look at all of those factors, while on a net sales basis, it looks like we're at record sales levels from a unit sales perspective.
The industry in the U. S. And Canada is still at relatively low levels.
Maybe just to add on, as we look at our international business, that's still in the Construction Forestry division, a relatively small piece of the business, but it is up. But we are seeing strength in several segments in the U. S. Or recovery. That includes independent rental companies as well as our dealers investing in some rental activity.
We have strengthened material handling. A lot of that is related to ag activity, strength in industrial and energy. So there are some segments in the U. S. That are recovering.
Great. That was really helpful. Thank you. So on the unrelated call, Tony, in Nashville, we talked a little bit about the instruments and how you've had a really sales performance implements. Can you talk structurally about as the curve has been so strong in tractors and have expensive planners or other employees kept up?
Or have they lagged in farmers? Has it been one for 1? Has it been better than one for 1 because people put more updated attachments on older machines? Or is it lagging and people bought the power and now they're buying the rest of the complex? Thanks.
Okay. Hey, Rob, this is Jim. I would tell you in general what we're seeing across the entire large ag portfolio, sprayers, tillage, seeding equipment is reasonably strong as well. And I can't tell you if it's 1 for 1, but all sectors are seeing some pretty significant stream and farmers are investing their healthy cash flows in equipment.
Right. And we talked about earlier in the year along that line with you mentioned seeding equipment and that's typically our early order program for that product line. Normally, it's a 3 stage early order program that actually sold out in the first stage. Last year, Tillage equipment, I think for the first time ever, we actually sold out. We were at capacity on Tillage equipment for the year.
So these other implements actually have had a very strong year as well.
Thank you.
Thank you. Let's move to the next caller.
Next question comes from Laurence De Maria. Please state your company name.
Hi, good morning. From William Blair.
Can you guys just talk
a little bit about Europe? Now that you have all the new products there that were launched last year into this year and working on the dealerships obviously, are you seeing any market share changes yet? And if not, do you expect that to accelerate over the next
year or so? Larry, a lot of those new products have just launched into the market. We have good order intake. We're very excited about the opportunities, and we believe that will translate into a good sales activity as we move through time. But again, some of
Okay. Thanks. And then as it relates to the expansion in Brazil and China for construction, obviously, you stated you're still expanding there. But is there any slowdown on the timing of the expansion given the current market dynamics in those 2 obviously important regions?
No, there's no change on either of those.
Next question comes from Jamie Cook. Please state your company name.
Hi, this is Andrew Buscaglia on behalf of Jamie Cook at Credit Suisse.
Good morning.
So we got so looking just at your incrementals, how should we think of 2012 as a peak looking at your incrementals for ag? And just kind of longer term, how should we think of emissions, mix change of mix and capacity impacting your incrementals?
We have a long term
project within the company to continue to improve our operating margins. That's internally referred to that as E700. There is a tremendous amount of work being done there. So we are aspiring to higher margins than we currently recovering the product cost. To recovering the product costs for interim Tier 4 that said there's more spend ahead of us as we look to final Tier 4, which those compliance dates begin 2014, 2015.
But there we will over the course of this year, we will have recovered most. And by 20 13, it's fair to say we will recover nearly all of the product costs.
Okay. That's helpful. And then just on your capital allocation, just a question on looking at your share repurchase. Is there a chance of being a little more aggressive given where the stock's pricing and what's sort of your bare case on the U. S.
Ag?
Yes. Certainly, as we stated in the past, we don't have any set targets that we communicate or anything along that line with the share repurchase. But we do look at our share repurchase program as a value enhancing use of cash. And so certainly as when the stock prices at a below what we would deem fair value for the company, we would certainly respond accordingly. Okay.
Thank you. Let's move to the next caller, please.
Our next question comes from Andy Casey. Please state your company name.
Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning everyone. Just a quick question. You may have indirectly answered this, but the full year and the Q3 revenue guidance seems to indicate a growth pace moderation to around 10% as you go into the back quarter of the year from the 25% in Q3. Can you provide a little bit more color on the assumptions behind that trend?
I think you're still dealing with some of the aftermath of interim Tier 4 project transitions. And I would not read anything into it. Again, we've increased our outlook
for ending inventory. Okay. I'll take the rest of them offline. Thank you.
Thank you, Andy.
Next caller?
Our next question comes from Vance Edelson. Please state your company name.
Hi. It's Morgan more on the conditions in the U. S. By end market? So across commercial construction infrastructure, even the single family, what are the trends you're seeing out there most recently?
And do you feel confident that conditions are going to keep improving?
Well, certainly, Marie mentioned the 3 or 4 areas where we're seeing strength. Today, as you look at where housing starts are, while they are improving from a a lot of contribution from the housing market relative to these other areas. So but again, we are seeing some signs of life, if you will, in those markets and are certainly hopeful that, that will continue to improve as we move forward.
Yes. I think the other thing, if you just look at it in aggregate and you look at where the aggregate industry unit sales are relative to the history, that would suggest that there's plenty of runway in the construction business in America. We've had record levels of sales. But if you look at the overall industry, it's far below what folks would consider to be normal.
Okay. That's very helpful. And then just back on ag and turf, with the pricing getting stronger during the quarter, could you just walk us through pricing power by region? Are there any geographies where you feel you have a notable ability to raise prices and then conversely any place where there's more customer sensitivity or greater competition that might keep a lid on pricing?
Yes. As you may be aware Vance, we do not provide any more granularity to the price realization either by division or by geography. But it is safe to say that all geographies and all divisions are contributing to the price, and that's about all we can say. So thank you. Let's move on to the next caller please.
Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz. Please state your company name.
Good morning, guys. Barclays.
Good morning.
Good morning. Good morning.
You hear me okay? Yes. So maybe if I could try and push you a little bit on C and F margins. Susan, you mentioned 5 points of negative mix effects. It seems like a lot of these negative mix effects should go away within the next 2 to 3 quarters as you transition from IT4 on some of these big, big pieces of equipment.
And that shouldn't last so much longer. I know that the expenses from the build out internationally are going to continue. But maybe if you could comment on 5 points going away over the next couple of quarters?
Yes. First of all, I want to clarify the 5 points was not mix alone. That included mix, R and D and growth. So it's a combination of those 3. Certainly, the mix impact, as we talked about in the quarter, should soften at least.
But certainly, the R and D and growth expenses will not. I mean, those will continue on through the year as we look to grow internationally.
Okay. Maybe I'll just shift gears then Tony and ask about the CIS region. I mean you didn't change your outlook for that region in ag, but up a considerable amount is obviously a little nebulous. And you have expanded or you announced another Waterloo expansion. I think a lot of that would go internationally.
So maybe you can comment on the strength of that region, especially Russia and what the impact is on your business?
Yes. Certainly, while we don't give a numeric outlook for that region, at this point, the sales are certainly very favorable and up strongly this year. So Russia, in particular, is up strongly year over year. You are correct, we do sell a significant number of Waterloo tractors into that market as well as large combines from our East Moline, Illinois facility, not to mention some construction equipment as well and forestry.
Our next question comes from Seth Weber. Please state your company name.
Hey, good morning. It's RBC. Sorry if I missed this, but on the you had first half or second half?
Sure. Yes. So far, what talked about with IT4 costs year to date, the IT4 costs was not the front end loaded portion of what you may be thinking of as a raw material cost, the $400,000,000 Okay. It was more front end loaded. And we're actually more than 3 4ths of the way of that is already been spent through the Q2 of the year on the raw material.
Interim Tier 4 actually accelerates as you go through the year. We talked about in the Q1, roughly 70 $5,000,000 This quarter was roughly $135,000,000 And as we continue to convert product, obviously, we have more products and that results in higher costs.
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks, Tony. And then I guess follow-up, the higher industry outlook for North America on the ag side, would you characterize that as coming from high horsepower equipment? Or do you think it's the smaller equipment is pushing the increase there?
The increase would be large ag.
Large ag. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next caller?
Our next question comes from David Raso. Please state your company name.
ISI. I'm trying to get a better read on your confidence in the 2013 demand based on your inventory. I can take you through the calc how I get to it. But essentially, I'm looking at your inventory, calc about $1,100,000,000 higher than normal in the sense of where the inventory is relative to the next 6 months sales you're expecting versus the historical norm. Of that $1,100,000,000 just to give us a little better feel, how much of that would you argue is confidence in $13,000,000 I'm just trying to get a feel for how much was simply maybe a little overbuild versus that larger number.
There's that much confidence in the spring selling season for 2013 already. You can answer that anywhere you'd like, but $1,000,000,000 is a sizable number the way I'm calculating.
It's very early, but we see many areas of the world where things continue to be very strong, including North America. And so in order to be sure that we can meet customer It's premature for us much as we I think we all would like to know what 2013 is going to look like. It's premature for us to provide definitive guidance at this point. But the trends, the fundamentals appear very stable in many parts of the world.
Yes. And could you help us
with a little more geographic color on where are you most confident geographically? Obviously, we can extrapolate the margin benefit or detriment to that comment. But just where are you having the most confidence geographically to have that level of inventory at this stage of the year?
Clearly, large ag in North America, as indicated kind of by our industry outlooks, is where a significant source of the strength is. So but going back to your question, the way we like to look at it is receivables and inventory together. And when I look at it on that basis, I see a a number that's slightly higher than the percentage a slightly higher percentage than kind of our historical norm for very high sales activity levels, but nothing that we believe is concerning. The other issue is, if you look back at history, we've vastly built out our parts distribution network and put parts distribution facilities in Russia. We've expanded the parts distribution facility in Brazil, all of which is aimed at the John Deere value proposition.
So some of that inventory is also there supporting that initiative. Thank you, David.
Our next question comes from Joel Tiss. Please state your company name.
Hi, Buckingham Research. I wonder if you can can you give us a little more help on even if you just aggregate it altogether on what the costs of all your various expansions are, I guess, the 12 new plants and how those costs flow through 20122013? And to the extent you can, any sort of an idea what revenue capacity you're building in? So I know you're not going to tell us that, but maybe like the increments to how much we are adding 20% to Russia or whatever. Just to help us understand how this all fits together and it might help us with the flow of numbers into 2013 2014?
Well, growth in SG and A we're saying is up 4 points for the full year, and that's maybe indicative of the kind of expenses that we're seeing. There are incrementally a few costs in manufacturing because you're putting in a little bit of personnel into those places. But that's really where the bulk of the increment is at this stage of the game. In terms of what our future revenue potential is, the only thing that we've really publicly stated is that we've is going back to the Waterloo opportunity. And there we've got another 10% capacity well ahead of us.
And that's really the only area that we're putting things to numbers.
The only thing that I would add to that, Joel, is that we're not going to talk about what the incremental growth opportunity is in 2013 or 2014, but we would tell you that these are the expenditures that's going to enable revised John Deere strategy, which is ultimately get us to doubling the company by 2018. So thank you.
Next question please. Our next question comes from Ashish Gupta. Please state your company name.
Good morning. It's great to hear your confidence in 2013. And thanks for the slide on Waterloo. Can you just walk us through the impact to your margins for making increasing equipment in North America and selling it internationally? Specifically, I'm just trying to wonder if there's a transfer pricing that makes international margins appear lower under GAAP?
Yes. If you look on under GAAP, when we report the outside U. S. And Canada margins, that is heavily, I mean, that's influenced by transfer pricing. So to your point, with the Waterloo tractors the marketing margin.
So the more significant manufacturing margin gets reported in the U. S. Region. So when you look at those numbers, it does distort in many cases where the it distorts the margin in outside U. S.
And Canada. When we look at it internally from a profit by a product basis and don't and basically strip out the transfer pricing, in many cases, the margins on tractors, for example, regardless of where they're sold in the world, the margins are very comparable. Of course, you have additional shipping and logistics costs, but outside of that, the margins are very comparable.
That's really helpful. If I can sneak in just one more. With all these capacity expansions, I'm just wondering, do you believe you're under producing global demand in ag, large ag?
I'll take that. I would say at Waterloo and at Harvester, we're working very hard to squeak out any incremental rock production that we can.
And also, I think that would be true in cotton. We've struggled to keep up with the demand in spring as well. So thank you very much.
We've got time for one more question.
Our last question comes from Andrew Obin. Please state your name.
It's Pecan from America Merrill Lynch. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Yes. Just a follow-up on Joel's question. In terms of your growth costs in C and F, could you quantify them just specifically that piece? And when do these run off?
So this
is the Brazilian factory, Chinese expansion. That's what I mean.
Those factories will start production next year. So you would have a and you'll be in some period of ramp up, certainly probably in 2014 as new product ships in. So you're a ways away from that. But again, you don't have any actual manufacturing taking place right now. So the growth costs are really represented in that SG and A.
But out of this 5 percentage points that you guys talked about, is growth half? Just give us a sense how much of it will linger?
Maybe as we look through the full year, it would be a better way. We know that mix neutralizes, but we're going to continue to see some growth expenses. We've got little heavier weighting on IT Board product costs, a little bit of raw material coming in the second half for them. So it continues. We're not going to provide any more granularity at this point.
Do you have another question, Andrew? I think maybe we lost Andrew. With that, thank you very much. Tony,
go ahead.
We'll be around this afternoon to answer your questions. Good day.
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.