Earnings Call: Q1 2013

Apr 25, 2013

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Deckers Outdoor Corporation First Quarter Fiscal 2013 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone of the company's Safe Harbor policy. Please note that certain statements made on this call regarding the company's expectations, beliefs and views about its future financial performance, brand strategies and cost structure are forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward looking statements are intended to qualify for the Safe Harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to the company's anticipated revenues, expenses, earnings, gross margin, capital expenditures, brand strategies and cost structure as well as the outlook for the company's markets and demand for its products. The forward looking statements made on this call are based on currently available information and because its business is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, some of which may be beyond its control, actual operating results in the future may differ materially from the future financial performance expected at the current time. Deckers has explained some of the risks and uncertainties in its earnings press release and in its SEC filings, including the Risk Factors section of its Annual Report on Form 10 ks and its other documents filed with the SEC. Listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly release or update the results of any revisions to forward looking statements. I would now like to turn the conference over to the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Mr. Angel Martinez. Please go ahead, sir. Good afternoon, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. With me on the call is Zohar Ziv, Chief Operating Officer and Tom George, Chief Financial Officer. As you saw from our press release, Q1 sales and earnings came in ahead of projection. The upside was driven primarily by better than expected consumer demand for the UGG brand in both our wholesale and direct to consumer channels. This was partially offset by some temporary softness in the Sanuk brand's international business due primarily to inventory buildup at some key distributors. Overall, we are pleased with our start to the year and feel good about the strategic direction of our brands. For the UGG brand, sell through of classics as well as casual slippers and spring fashion boots performed very well in double digits on a weekly basis throughout the quarter at key accounts, buoyed in part by colder temperatures across much of the U. S. Versus the same period a year ago. In addition, several new spring casual styles have sold extremely well as consumers responded favorably to our new introductions carrying more attractive opening price points. The Mara, the Inda and Eliza casuals are selling in double digits all in the $70 to $100 retail price point. The brand's continued momentum following the solid end to 2012 continued momentum following the solid end to 2012 further validates our belief in the strength of the UGG brand and the desirability of our growing product collections. As expected, domestic wholesale was down compared to the prior year, but we saw improved selling of the Spring line as many of our key accounts expanded their Spring business following solid performances the past few years. Better than expected sell through of boots did generate some reorders during the quarter. In Europe, prolonged cold spells helped fuel sell through of classic during Q1, further reducing retailer inventory levels and boosting confidence in the brand for next fall. From a sell in perspective, wholesale sales were down in line with plan. However, we are selling the spring fashion sandals well and boots performed well in Q1 with colder than expected weather. Now to Asia, where Japan wholesale sales were driven by the growing popularity of our spring line combined with increased demand for cooler weather fall product. Like the U. S, Japan had a longer winter this year, which helped improve demand for classic boots, particularly the shorter length styles early in Q1. As the quarter progressed and temperatures warmed, we witnessed sell through of casual shoes accelerate, underscoring the progress we've made evolving the UGG brand into a more of a year round brand in this region. Turning to our retail division. Sales were ahead of expectations driven by the combination of a mid single digit comp increase and improved productivity for many of the new stores opened over the past 12 months. By region, comps were strongest in North America with the U. S. And Canada up mid teens and low double digits respectively. Building off a good holiday season and helped by cold spring weather, the U. K. Posted a mid single digit comp gain, while in Japan comps were up low single digits. While down double digits, China comps have continued to show steady improvement over the past few quarters, thanks to new merchandising and marketing strategies as well as the inclusion of several new stores in the comp base. During the quarter, we opened 1 store in the U. S. And currently operate a total of 78 stores worldwide. For 2013, we still expect to open in the neighborhood of 30 stores, 2 thirds of which will be in Asia, primarily China and Japan, with the remainder in the U. S. And Europe. Now to the Teva brand, which grew in the Q1 despite the cold weather conditions. As we documented for several seasons now, our focus has been on transforming the Teva brand into a more complete outdoor footwear brand in order to increase its growing prospects and lessen its growth prospects and lessen its dependence on weather. Following some successful closed toe product introductions over the past few years, I believe we developed the Teva brand's most advanced and compelling spring line yet, led by the new Teva Sphere collection of trail runners and cross trainers. The technology inside these shoes, which took several years to develop, emphasizes a first of its kind spherical heel and pod arch system delivering a more natural point of impact, efficient transition and superior stability on varied terrain. The collection has helped us acquire additional shelf space, expand price points and elevate the brand's position with a broader consumer audience. The combination of performance and stability found in TevaSphere's products is state of the art and speaks to the innovation our organization is capable of bringing to market. We haven't forgotten the brand's roots and continue to advance the sports sandal category with new offerings for this year that includes the successful Tiara and Zira sandals for women and our Terrify Light sandal for men. We did miss out on some replenishment business in Q1 as a result of the unseasonable cool temperatures, which could also have an impact on some Q2 deliveries, but overall, we're pleased with the brand start to the year. For the Sanuk brand, domestically, it was a solid quarter with sales up double digits versus a year ago. Like the Teva brand, the Sanuk brand lost out on some reorders as a result of colder weather, but still managed to achieve a mid single digit wholesale sales increase led by strong response to new styles such as the Yoga Sling Sandals and Dotty Sidewalk Surfer for women and updated looks in our core Sidewalk Surfer for men. The brand's e commerce business continued to post impressive gains fueled by last spring's conversion to the Deckers platform, which allowed us to create a much more effective environment for engaging with consumers. We recently developed another new environment with our 1st company operated Sanuk brand store in the U. S, Located on Third Street Promenade in Santa Barbara and Santa Monica, the store is in the heart of Southern California, home to the surf culture from which the Sanuk brand was born and one of the busiest tourist destinations in the country. It's the meeting of these two worlds that serves as the basis for our strategy with the Sanuk brand. 1st and foremost, we must continue to connect with our core consumer who influences much of the U. S. Market and other markets inspired by surf culture. At the same time, we need to expand the brand's conversion beyond the beach and evolve the product line to reach new audiences, while still retaining and maximizing our current audience. Looking at the Sanuk brand's performance overseas, Q1 sales were below last year, mainly due to declines in Asia. I believe much of the decrease can be attributed to the normal growing pains many young brands experience as they make the transition from niche player into a larger market participant. Until now, the Sanuk brand relied solely on distributors to launch and grow the business in the international markets, namely Asia Pacific. And with the formation of the Sanuk management team and Deckers subsidiaries in Japan, we now have the infrastructure to take a more direct involvement in the Sanuk brand's operations throughout the region. So we're currently working very closely with some of our largest distributors to improve their inventory management and distribution strategies. I'll now turn the call over to Tom, who will review the numbers in more detail and update our outlook. Tom? Thanks, Angel. Today's earnings release contains a good amount of detail about our Q1 sales and earnings, including sales by brand channel and geography. Therefore, I'm going to limit my discussion primarily to gross margins, operating expenses, the balance sheet and guidance. Gross margin for the Q1 was 46.8% compared to 46% in the Q1 last year. The 80 basis point improvement was primarily attributable to a greater proportion of higher margin retail sales in Q1, 2013 as compared to the same period last year, which offset an increase in sheepskin cost. Total SG and A expense for the quarter was $120,900,000 or 45.8 percent of net sales compared to 101 $400,000 or 41.2 percent of net sales a year ago. The dollar increase versus a year ago was primarily due to $10,400,000 of additional expense related to our retail operations, most of which for the 29 new retail stores that were not opened during the Q1 last year as well as some additional marketing and international costs. Operating income for the Q1 was 2 $700,000 or 1 percent of sales compared to operating income of $11,900,000 or 4.8 percent of sales last year. The decline in operating margin was a result of the aforementioned increase in SG and A expenses. Our effective income tax rate for the Q1 was 59.9 percent compared to 34.9% in the Q1 last year. The higher tax rate in 2013 was mainly due to one time tax items, which had a higher percentage impact as a result of lower pretax income as compared to the prior year. 1st quarter diluted earnings per share was 0 point 0 $3 versus $0.20 a year ago and compared favorably to our guidance for a loss of approximately 0 point 12 dollars The upside relative to our guidance was driven by the combination of higher sales, which was worth approximately $0.12 and approximately $0.03 was attributable to a delay in incurring marketing expenses during Q1 and will move into Q2, which will now be incurred in the Q2. Turning to the balance sheet. At March 31, 2013, inventory increased 23.3 percent to $257,100,000 from $208,500,000 at March 31, 2012, and decreased 14.4% from $300,200,000 at December 31, 2012. The $48,600,000 increase in inventory from the prior year is primarily due to UGG driven by carryover product, which will be utilized to fulfill orders during 2013. In addition, approximately $10,000,000 is due to higher unit cost and $9,000,000 is due to 29 more retail stores compared to a year ago. By brand, compared to March 31, 2012, UGG brand inventory increased 42,500,000 dollars to $201,500,000 PEVA brand inventory increased $500,000 to $31,300,000 Sanuk brand inventory increased $3,000,000 to $15,100,000 and our other brands inventory increased 2 point $6,000,000 to $9,200,000 I'd like to provide more detail regarding our comfort with the quality of our UGG brand inventory. At March 31, 2013, in line and carryover products represented approximately 90% of UGG brand inventory. The remaining 10% is inventory available for our outlets or the closeout channel and we believe has been valued appropriately and has been considered in our forward margin guidance. Regarding orders for in line carryover product, as of March 31, we have orders for a significant amount of inventory with the balance available for our retail stores and e commerce business, which combined has grown to over 25% of our business. At March 31, 2013, our cash and cash equivalents were $64,600,000 compared to $228,600,000 at March 31, 2012. At March 31, 2013, we had $10,000,000 outstanding in outstanding borrowings under our credit facility compared to 0 a year ago and $33,000,000 at December 31, 2012. The decrease in cash and cash equivalents and the increase in outstanding borrowings year over year are attributable to $200,700,000 of stock repurchases over the past 12 months at an average price of $47.33 a share $62,500,000 of cash payments for capital assets, which includes $34,100,000 of retail expansion, dollars 13,600,000 for the new headquarters facility with the balance of $14,800,000 for IT infrastructure and maintenance as well as other expenditures, offset in part by cash provided by operations. During the quarter, we did not repurchase any shares of the company's common stock. As of March 31, 2013, we had $79,000,000 available under the $200,000,000 stock repurchase program announced in July 2012. Regarding our retail operations for all stores open at least 12 months at March 31, 2013, average sales per square foot was $1500 This figure compares to approximately $1600 per square foot for the trailing 12 months ending December 31, 2012, with the difference driven by addition of our Canadian locations as well as several China stores, countries where productivity levels are below the company average. Total square footage at the end of March was approximately 215,000 square feet compared to roughly 134,000 square feet at the end of March 2012, representing an increase of about 60%. Now moving on to our outlook. Based on first quarter results and current visibility, we still expect 20 13 revenues to increase approximately 7% over 2012 levels. For the full year, we still expect UGG brand sales to increase by approximately 4% and Teva brand sales to increase approximately 6%. We now expect Sanuk brand sales to grow approximately 10% to 13% compared to our prior guidance of approximately 15%, while other brand sales are now expected to generate $41,000,000 in 2013 compared to prior guidance of $40,000,000 With regard to earnings, we still expect diluted earnings per share to increase approximately 5% over 2012. While Q1 earnings did come in ahead of guidance, a portion related to a shift in the timing of certain marketing expenses. We're also seeing some pressure on earnings from fluctuations in foreign currency, primarily in the back half of the year. Finally, with such a significant amount of our earnings concentrated in the 4th quarter, we believe it is prudent to maintain our original full year outlook until we get closer to our key selling season. Our forecast is still based on a full year gross profit margin of 46.5 percent and SG and A as a percentage of sales of approximately 34%. For the year, capital expenditures are still projected to be approximately $85,000,000 with $40,000,000 for retail stores, dollars 30,000,000 for the corporate facility and the balance of $15,000,000 for IT and other maintenance. We are still planning to refinance our corporate headquarters by securing long term financing. For the Q2 of 2013, we expect revenues to be approximately flat with Q2 2012 levels. As Angel mentioned, the cold spring weather thus far is likely to have an impact on reorders for the Teva and Samuk brands, which is factored into our guidance. For the Q2, we expect a diluted loss per share of approximately $1.10 which when you take into account the $0.03 impact from the shift in marketing expenses is in line with the Q2 guidance we outlined on the year end call for a diluted loss per share of approximately double the $0.53 we lost in the same period a year ago. Looking at the back half of the year, it is important to know that based on the growing contribution from our own retail stores, combined with the change in wholesale buying patterns following 2 consecutive mile winners, we now expect roughly 85% to 90% of our projected second half earnings will come in the 4th quarter. I will now turn the call back over to Angel. Thanks, Tom. So we're close to completing our fall pre book and orders have come in as expected, which is down compared to 2012. We saw a good response to our new transitional product highlighted by driving mocs, slippers and ballerinas as well as specialty classics, slippers, casual boots and fashion boots. Retailers remain cautious on fallwinter deliveries following back to back mild winters. We've seen this in our more weather sensitive collections, namely cold weather specific products. On a positive note, a cold first quarter helped further clear carryover inventory in the channel, improving the opportunities for reorders in Q4 should we experience a more normalized winter. Now before moving to questions, I want to expand on our discussion of UGGpure. As we discussed in our last earnings call, our innovation team has delivered on a challenge that's been underway for some time, namely develop additional materials that would allow us to deliver the comfort for which the UGG brand is known, while helping to mitigate the unpredictability of material costs. The material is called UGGpure, which is a wool pile textile created by crafting wool fibers and weaving them into a durable backing that allows us to deliver a plush and consistent sensory experience. We're introducing UGGpure into the footbeds and linings of some of our products beginning in April and in our own concept stores and in late May in our wholesale channels. With UGGpure, we believe that we'll be able to lower our product costs and pursue profitable new growth opportunities, some of which were previously not economically viable. As I said on the last call, UGGpure gives us another important key to further unlock the lifestyle nature of the UGG brand well beyond footwear. While we're excited about the flexibility we believe UGGpure can potentially provide, I think it's important to keep this development in context. We will expand UGGpure into other products in our line over time. As a reminder, our plastic collection is currently constructed using mostly premium twin faced sheepskin, not table grade sheepskin. So while UGGpure will offer some near term cost savings, we'll still be heavily dependent on Sheepskin for the near term. We'll be able to update you on our expected Sheepskin cost basis for fiscal year 'fourteen when we report Q3 results in October. So thank you for your continued interest in Deckers, and we'll now be happy to take your questions. Thank you. The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. The first question comes from Omar Saad with ISI Group. Thanks. Good afternoon. Angel, I wanted to follow-up on your the comments you just made on the UGGpure. It seems like this timetable maybe moved up a little bit. It sounds like you're going to have some of it in your own stores. If I remember correctly, I think on the last call, it sounded like it was more a fall collection development. Has anything changed in terms of the supply chain around that or your comfort level through consumer testing? Any kind of thoughts around that would be helpful. Well, fundamentally nothing has changed. We're getting better at refining our supply chain. Everyone is now growing more familiar and more comfortable with the processes involved in producing the material. We have said from the beginning that it would be infused into the product line slowly. Now some of this transitional product that you're going to see in stores beginning in this April was a good opportunity for it to be introduced in the footbeds and some lining materials. So that's what we're doing. So no real change from what we originally said. You'll still see it at wholesale as we had planned in May June. Got you. Understood. And then one quick question follow-up on the fall your comments around the fall orders, The 2nd consecutive warmer winter as expected there's some softness there as retailers are being more cautious. And it sounded like it was mostly in the kind of colder weather lines. Are there other any other areas in the product lines where you're getting a retailer response that you're a little bit disappointed by that you're going to focus on developing further in the coming years or perhaps some areas of the line where Pure could play a role? I don't think anything has come as a surprise. I think people have just been generally speaking cautious. I think that they have been a couple of things. It's not just the warm winter. That's the impact of all of the e commerce that's going on across all channels, across really all consumer industries. So we're seeing that across the board. That's why a couple of years ago, we really started to diversify our classic assortment. So that was not so monolithic, if you will. Some of the updated classics, some of the new classic derivative product that we've done has added a lot of new interest. It allows us to do more marketing driven around product that's only available for a short amount of time as we did last holiday season. So, no, I'd say generally there's no surprise. People are the cautiousness is pretty consistent. Interestingly, I think you'll see as a result of the cooler weather this spring, it should people may look at their order book and realize that perhaps if we start to trend toward a more normalized winter that they may be a little short on even core classic product and core colors. But it's too early to tell that. We'll find that out as the season progresses. Have the retailers had any response to Pure? Is that reflected at all how they responded? We've had tremendous positive response to Pure. I think in the end, the consumer is really being offered a product that's improved and better. So it actually enhances the UGG experience at retail so that the retailers we've had in and showed them the material and A, they on a blind test, they say, well, I like this one. It feels better to me and they find it's not pure. So in many cases that we've shown it to people that's been the response. Thanks a lot for all the information guys. Good luck. Thank you. Thanks. And next is Bob Drbul with Barclays. Good evening. Hi, Bob. I guess the first question is on the order book I'm sorry on the inventory levels, I think you said 90% of it is in line. Like how much of that number can you give us a number in terms of how much of it has orders behind it right now as you head into the fall? Yes. Bob, that I even commented that on the script. A significant amount of that already has orders. And we also that inventory also supports our direct to consumer business as well. So we feel like we've made good progress in getting the inventory levels more in line and feel really comfortable looking at that inventory and the quality of that inventory on a very detailed basis relative to what was pre booked. Okay. And then on for the rest of the year, I guess, from the Q1, you talked about more attractive price points. Just similar question, but do you feel like you have the pricing piece of this in a good position for the rest of the year, both on orders but at retail? Yeah, Yes, we do. We feel that we're in a good situation there. One of the things that helped us even get more and more comfortable is that with that colder winter that we experienced in the Q1 and the strong sell through we saw the classic products in the Q1 with our major customers that even reinforced further that we feel really good where we're at from a pricing point of view. Yes. We experienced no price resistance with core product in the Q1. We really feel that this sort of validates what we've been saying about the brand. The brand has tremendous power in the consumer environment and normalized winter creates significant demand increases as we've seen just in the example of this colder spring. Great. Thank you very much. Good luck. Great. Thanks. And moving on to Erinn Murphy with Piper Jaffray. Great. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to follow-up. It was helpful to hear that comp detail by region. If you could just help us kind of put some of the key regions North America, Europe and Japan in context of last year? And then as we go forward throughout the year, where do you see the biggest opportunity in terms of the regional performance? That's my first question. I have a quick follow-up. Thank you. Yes. We were pleased with how the comps performed during the Q1. I think we talked about there's still some challenges in China. I think we've made great progress in identifying what we need to do there in China from a store operation point of view and an inventory management within the stores. In addition to a merch from a merchandising and marketing point of view on the stores, We experienced good traffic increases in the stores during the Q1. One thing to keep in mind on the comps is there's still we're still relatively new to retail and the comp base is still relatively small in the scheme of things. So it is subject to some volatility, especially in the regions that have a smaller number of stores and that being Japan. So I think net net because it is still very early and really the results for the year are really 4th quarter driven and they're very direct to consumer oriented kind of results. We're still assuming some caution in the comps until we get to the Q4. And still then, we're even looking at trying to be cautious at this early stage of the game. And as far as your other the other part of your question, we're very excited about opportunities in Asia with our brand. One of the things that we've learned is to be much better merchants. So the merchandising approach that Dave Powers and his team have brought forward is going to make significant impact already has been making an impact. UGGpure is going to allow us to evolve and develop product that is a little bit more attainable for a broader percentage of the population in China, because right now we're really looking at product that's only available to the top 2% or 3% of the population from a price point point of view. It's leaving too big a gap below us that knockoff brands are exploiting. So this is going to be an opportunity for us to really exploit that opportunity, that potential in our brand and we're pretty excited about that. Thank you. That's really helpful. And then I guess Tom just a quick last follow-up for you. On the Q2 revenue guidance and can you appreciate the dynamics just given the deferred spring selling season with both Kevin and Sanuk. But how should we think about the revenue component for the UGG brand? And just help us maybe appreciate the channel dynamics between retail wholesale in the Q2? And that would be really helpful. Thank you. Right. I mean, Q2 is a sort of the most insignificant quarter really. It's most of the spring product is really sold into the Q1. So that remains the Q2 is some closeouts are involved in the Q2 and retail is very low in the 2nd quarter as well. So we I'll give you a little bit more flavor not only with Teva and Sanuk, but Teva and Sanuk are sort of flattish at best. The UGG domestic wholesale is planned to be a little bit down. From a comp perspective, any gains from a channel perspective, we expect comps to be sort of flattish, maybe slightly up. We have seen some improved productivity on the new stores, but the declines I described in the wholesale and the distribution channel, that's going to put some pressure. So net net net it all boils down to sort of flattish quarter from a top line point of view. And so that's that. Great. Thank you. Understood. Best of luck. All right. Thanks. And next will be Scott Kraseck with BB and T Capital. Hi, everyone. Thanks. Tom, I just wanted to clarify your comments based on the $0.03 you did this quarter and the minus $1.10 in the second quarter that would imply about $4.70 or so in the back half of the year. And then you said only 10% or 15% of that would be in Q3? Yes. That's right. I mean, there's a lot of different dynamics going. More retail stores and we also talked about there's more and more of a shift with our major wholesalers to order more product for the Q4 versus the Q3. I think another dynamic there is we are moving to try to get more of our retail stores opened in the Q3, not have them all piled into the Q4. So and given the 3rd quarter is not that strong of a retail quarter, you get some more SG and A that you need to absorb in the 3rd quarter. And I think one other thing, pretty important thing is from a margin perspective, there's really no benefit we're seeing in the Q3 relative to the sheet scan and the pure savings we're going to experience this year. That's really a 4th quarter phenomenon. So that puts that really skews the back half earnings numbers. So on how I guess your order book closes I think the end of April I had heard. Do you see orders sort of move from Q3 to Q4? Do people just eliminate the orders from Q3 and keep the orders the same for Q4 and then expect that 1's business? How does the order book look as it's almost closed I think? I think we're seeing a slide more toward Q4. I think we're seeing people are willing to roll the dice on inventory availability in Q3, if they haven't stepped up and ordered as aggressively as they had in the past. If the winter season kicks off aggressively, they'll be chasing inventory. And we'll be fulfilling a lot of orders on our e commerce and our own stores. So we're just seeing a shift now with retailers wanting to be much closer to market, which is a little ironic because it wasn't that long ago that you'd see fall product in full bloom in July, lots of merchandise. I think you're going to see that big shift away from that at retail. So if I could just sneak one last one in. You talked about transitional product last quarter. I guess 2013 you just didn't have enough time. But what type of product can you create to get some of that Q3 business back in wholesale? Well, we do have some transitional product shipping this year and we really began that last year. It's really about the weight of the material, the components of the material that make it more winter appropriate versus fall appropriate. Driving mocs are important as transitional product. The ballerinas are important as transitional product. Sandals still obviously important in the first half of Q2. So we've got more diversity of product, more colors, more materials, wedges are important. All of that stuff is something we've been building and it's been well received and selling through quite well. So we'll be doing more of that. Okay. Good luck. Thanks. Thank you. Thanks. Next will be Randy Konik with Jefferies. Hi, can you hear me? Yes, we can. Yes. All right. Great, guys. I guess on health, can you give us some perspective on when you think about the inventory in the wholesale channel distribution, where do you feel like it's cleanest from a geographic perspective? That's my first question. I think anywhere we've had cold weather this spring, which is Europe, U. K. Particularly, the U. S. And Asia as well. Japan had cold weather in the 1st part of spring. So in all of those markets where we had carryover product from Q4, that will have a positive impact. I mean, certainly, it was inventory that a lot of retailers already owned, but it bodes well for what we have in terms of their needs for Q4. So they're much less concerned about that aspect of their UGG business given what happened in the with the weather in the Q1 in those key regions. Got it. And then second question is, in terms of the product that we're going to be looking at from a fall, winter perspective 2013, what would the consumer or what should we from a sell side perspective be? What kind of product should we be noticing the most in terms of incrementally impacting demand, I. E. They'll pop with the consumer, etcetera? What are the wholesale customers getting most excited about right now? Well, what we things we've done around Classic, I think are very exciting. And Classic is almost you sort of have to think of it as a design theme versus specific product assortment. It is classic inspired product. So it really kind of takes what people love so much about classic and evolves it with material upgrades and colorways and treatments, a whole variety of things that make it very unique and unusual compared to what people have seen in the past. So that's pretty important. The casual boots are very important. That's there's a lot of excitement about that. We've got good price points on those products. I think we've done a good job with the right style and assortment. Our men's product for fall is quite strong, especially the boots. So it's and by the way, in the fall, we sell a lot of sneakers. I mean, the beginning of the fall that's been continues to be pretty strong. So it's a much more diversified product. Continues to be pretty strong. So it's a much more diversified product line. Now given the last 2 years of mild weather, we really haven't been doing a lot of aggressive development of more cold weather product, what we call cold weather product, because obviously there you got a one shot deal there. And our core styles in cold weather have performed well. It's just that there hasn't been enough cold weather to go around. So we've just evolved those appropriately, but haven't evolved the amount of SKUs in those assortments. Got you. And I guess last question would be more for Tom. Tom, if you go back a little while ago when you guys added some leverage to the balance sheet and used it to aggressively repurchase about $200,000,000 or so of your stock over the last 12 months. You have $79,000,000 left to buy back. You're going to generate a ton of cash in the back half of the year. The business seems to be stabilizing. Could we expect you to get more aggressive once again from a share repurchase perspective? How should we be thinking about that? I think the best way we can comment on that right now is just refer to the current authorization. We do have 79,000,000 dollars remaining on that authorization and we will look to continue to be opportunistic. And you're right, the company the business model does generate a significant amount of free cash flow. And that being said, we've got a significant amount of opportunities that we want to reinvest in the business. So I can't comment on any really that's about all I can comment on relative to share repurchases. Fair enough. Thanks guys. Thank you. And moving on to Sam Pozer with Stern and G. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my call. A couple of questions. Number 1, you mentioned that the backlog was down. Can you give us some indication of you gave it on the Q1. You said the backlog was down 17%. Can you let us know what's going on this quarter? Yes. Sam, we feel good where the pre book came in, and it is down really in line with our expectations and gives us a lot of comfort in terms of how we're guiding for the back half of the year. What I'm trying to get to is last year a lot of the retailers were sitting on a good deal of inventory. And this year I believe the inventory levels are cleaner at retail. So I was wondering sort of what percentage of the backlog that you've had at this point last year did you actually ship? Trying to get a read on basically how stick if the backlog you have now is stickier, you end up could be ending up in better position. I mean, good question. A year ago, in what eventually happened in the back half of the year, especially the Q4, we did experience some significant cancellations. And we also commented on the call, we've seen that the inventory in the channel is a lot cleaner. And all that being said this early in the year before the key selling season, we still think it's prudent to maintain a similar percentage level of cancellations to last year in our guidance. All right. That's okay. Thank you. And then secondly, you mentioned on the prior call that you expected inventory at the end the second quarter to be around $300,000,000 and be down on a quarter over on a year over year basis. Is that still what we should be looking for? Yes. I think one thing to point out on inventory is there's been a lot of moving dynamics. The business is changing a lot more direct to consumer business that needs to support. There's more transitional product, more stores. There's higher sheet skin costs. The factories are after us to take more product earlier. That said, at the Q2, we still expect the inventory to be down compared to the prior year and flattish to that year end $300,000,000 number. Okay. So that's still nothing's changed with that at all? That's right. And just one last thing, because a lot of people are asking me this question. It was basically you had $208,000,000 at the end of last year at the end of the Q1. If you were to aim even close to that number and be down, you wouldn't have brought in any new product because it would have been logistically impossible. Am I just thinking about that correctly? I think related to the Q1, we were pleased with the progress we made. No, no, I understand that. What I'm saying is that people are saying, wow, your inventory is still up. It's up more than it was at the end of Q4. And my point is that, just in pure dollars, you couldn't have gotten it even close to that number or you wouldn't have had any new product to sell. Am I thinking about that correctly? Right. No, you are thinking about that correctly. That's Thank you and good luck. All right. Thanks. And moving on to Eric Tracy with Janney Capital Markets. Hi, guys. Good afternoon. I guess if I could follow on the UGGpure conversation. 1, just are we able to get a sort of percentage of potential penetration by say holiday this year? What's expected? As we've said, we're because of the evolution of the supply chain, we're going to be introducing it in footbeds and some lining materials in 2013. We have sheepskin lining material that we own from prior years. So I wouldn't expect it to be much more than 10% of what we're using. It will formally be conventional lining material. Over time, I would say that our near term goal is 25% of the lining material to be replaced by UGGpure. I mean 25% of our sheepskin used to be replaced by UGGpure, which would represent about most of the lining material that we're using. Okay. And then and just to clarify again how you're thinking about layering in the UGGpure. On the core classic, obviously, will just be the footbed. Is it my assumption that you try to maintain the pricing level within the classic and obviously just layer in the lower product costs, so the margin beneficial, very helpful. But then on some of the more fashion oriented newer lines, it could actually be the full silhouette in aligning of the product and that gives you an opportunity to adjust pricing down. And then I guess with all of that then, can you give any sense of just like for like what sort of the lower product cost might mean to margin? Well, first of all, over time, yes, the new product where we have an opportunity to utilize more UGGpure in the design of the product and what it delivers to the consumer, you'll see a higher percentage of the new product in the UGGpure material. As I said before, it is superior. And so that's important to understand. Classic will remain for the near term prime twin face. It's still I think a little bit early to sort of discuss what the ultimate impact is on margin, but we're going to be driving as aggressively as we feel appropriate to use UGGpure as an essential part of what makes UGG feel like UGG, feel like nothing else. And that in and of itself, the consumer is going to vote. The consumer is going to vote. Do they like it better? As we think they do, they will. They'll demand more of this feeling and more consistency of product and it's going to give us opportunity to introduce new product at better margin and even at lower introductory price points so that we can go get back some of that core customer that we lost due to price increases over the last few years on the raw material. And then just lastly on the UGG curve. I mean, it's fair to say even if you get to that 25% near term penetration level that the byproduct should actually cause some downward pressure on the Twin Face skin market, correct, in pricing? I think theoretically that you could see that happening. Yes, I think so. But we're always going to be in the market for Prime Twin Face. It's important. We feel that there are some products that consumers just want them the way they are and we're not going to go changing them. But it's this is really about product evolution and the new opportunities it creates. And as we evolve some of the new categories that we haven't been in, such as home products and apparel, etcetera, you'll see more use of this material. And over time, it should have a positive impact on price of the conventional table grade material for sure. Okay. And then if I could just squeeze one last in just sort of switching gears here towards the retail growth. I think there's probably half of the stores, fifteen in the stores, the 30 this year are going to be in China. Maybe just talk through again the weaker comps now. I know there was an issue just around fit and sizing and also some operational issues. Just talk us through the comfort level that you have in improving productivity levels. And then it's my understanding relative to the rest of the fleet, China does have the best profitability. But just trying to get a comfort given how aggressive you're sort of ramping those relative to some of the weaknesses you've seen in the past? Yes. Eric, I mean, hit on some of the things that we've talked about improved productivity and what's going to drive that is some better merchandising, better flow of products, some more marketing, getting the consumer more and more aware of the value of a real UGG versus a down market product and some changes from a store management point of view and sort of a more senior retail management point of view in China. And I think those are going to really those give us more and more comfort in the continued learnings we have there that we're going to be able to turn that around and continue to gain some improvement. We did mention we've been seeing some steady improvement on our retail store operations in China and we're still just scratching the surface of the total opportunity there. When you look at 2nd and third tier cities, you look at outlet concept opportunities, that is still a great opportunity. In terms of productivity, they are smaller stores. They still generate 1 year kind of paybacks, which is very strong returns on invested capital. But they are excuse me, lower smaller stores compared to some of the U. S. And European stores. Okay. Fair enough. I appreciate it guys. Best of luck. Moving on to Howard Tubman with RBC Capital Markets. Thanks guys. As you continue to develop UGGpure and you introduce some more maybe lower price point or entry level price point items into the brand. Would you should we expect to see any new or different distribution or you keep kind of distribution channels in terms of department stores where it is today? I think you'll see us remain pretty consistent with where we are today, actually perhaps even slightly down in terms of our distribution. Outside the U. S, obviously China is a retail only market. So you'll see us be able to talk to more consumers. As I said earlier 2% to 3% of consumers in China have access to the UGG brand because of the price points. So it would be great to get another 3% or 4% of the population able to buy UGG. So that's important. The other thing about China is that there's much known about 170 cities with population over 1,000,000 people, and we haven't even begun to penetrate those markets. So there's opportunity there. I think what we are really looking at is the revolution going on called omnichannel, which really begins to create a different mindset, if you will, for consumers. They want to access brands how they want, when they want. And many of them either do their initial shopping online and go buy in a store or they just only buy online. Yes, in footwear, we're all very fortunate that it's an experiential kind of purchase. So you got to go try something on, which brings people out into stores is very important. But the impact of omnichannel over the next few years is going to continue to be a factor in distribution decisions. So my guess is that when the consumer realizes they can buy a product online 20 fourseven, a product they know and are comfortable with and they prefer to shop that way, it probably means you don't need that many more points of physical distribution than you currently have. So that's just that's sort of my theory. And I think so far it's been validated by what we're seeing. Got it. Thank you very much. Moving on to Mitch Kummetz with Robert Baird. Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. So on how you talked about how the cold weather has led to a reduction of carryover inventory at retail. So I'm just trying to understand as that sort of process has transpired over the last few months, I mean, as you look at your order book, do you think that that's prompted retailers to be a little more aggressive with their orders and maybe what you thought they would have been 2 or 3 months ago before we saw that cold weather? Or does that just or retailers kind of just sitting on what orders they thought they were going to write and then that just better positions you for the opportunity for kind of at once business later in the year? Yes. I think the latter is true. I think what people are doing is just feeling breathing a little easier with the amount of inventory they have on hand, rolling the dice and saying, if I need inventory more inventory than I planned, I'm just going to I'm going to hope UGG has it and I'm going to hope to get that from UGG when I need it. That may or may not be true. And if we see a cold snap early, that may not be the case and they may be chasing inventory. So I think it's this cautiousness, yes, it's weather dependent to a large extent, but it's also, as I mentioned, it's dependent on omni channel. I think people are just very cautious as to what's happening with all this stuff. How much inventory do we really need? Do we and they're saying to themselves, do we have to carry all this inventory? Can't the brands carry this inventory for us? And obviously, that's not my preference. We're not a warehouse for people. So our priorities will be to service those customers that step up in the pre book, certainly service our own stores and our e commerce business. And if there's any product left over, we can ship it to other people. Yes, Kiethis, you guys have been pretty consistent the last couple of quarters saying that the guidance assumes a similar level of cancellations as a year ago. I mean, to me that would seem to be a more conservative assumption today than maybe 2 or 3 months ago before we had this cold weather and this reduction of carryover inventory. Is that a fair assessment of that assumption? I think that's a fair assessment. I mean, I'm comfortable being conservative. When it comes to the weather, no one has a very good crystal ball on this stuff yet. We don't know if there's a pattern. No one does. Yes. And then to Tom, I don't want to take up too much more of your guys' time. But I think coming off the last earnings call, you had talked about just sort of a flat comp on the year and then U. S. UGG wholesale sales down mid to high single digits. It doesn't look like your sales earnings guidance has changed for the year. So do those assumptions still apply as they did coming up the last quarter? Yes, they do. I think that's a good way to look at it. I mean, we have really no change to the outlook in the back half of the year for the UGG brand. Okay, great. Thanks guys. Good luck. Moving on to Christian Busch with Credit Suisse. If you could provide some perspective on some of the moves you've been making to reposition the UGG brand in Continental Europe? And what kind of success you've seen there? And how much is left to do? Yes. It's I don't know that I would use the word reposition. I think what we've really done is a couple of things. Number 1, we cleaned up the distribution, which allowed us to more effectively control the assortment and the mix that's available at retail. We broadened the product assortment, so that with the distribution partners that we have now, we're able to make a much better statement of what the brand is and what it is on a year round basis, what it is for men and women and kids. So I think we were pretty one dimensional before. It was pretty much driven by Classic a couple of years ago, and I think we've been making wonderful progress along these other dimensions. So it's created for the consumer a much better understanding of what Av is and a much more a sense of the appropriateness of the brand for a much broader, much bigger part of the year. So I really think that that's been the fundamental strategy and it's working quite well. Great. Thank you very much and good luck. Thanks. And moving on to Camilo Lyon with Canaccord Genuity. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask a question on PURE. How do you guys think about the risk of cannibalization since you're it sounds like you're keeping the distribution channels the same and it seems like this will be a lower priced product. How do you manage that potential risk? We really don't see a significant cannibalization risk. We feel that the product that we're currently selling, what people know as Classic and what people know as extensions of the Classic line and those price points, that is all very stable, very solid. The new product that we're talking about allows us to compete where we got pushed out of those segments of the market. In some cases, we really were never effectively able to go into the market with any consistency because of the last few years, the increases in sheepskin pricing. Young consumers, and I'm talking about teen consumers for who $200 is a lot of money. Just a few years ago, Classic was available at $120 So really what this does, it allows us to gain traction once again in that target core customer that just had to move past UGG and move to maybe a knockoff brand or just out of the category or put off the purchase for a year or 2, just because the product got pretty expensive. The other thing I'd add is there's a lot of consumers out there. We call them prospect consumers. It represents about 23% or 4% of consumers who among the reasons they didn't purchase UGG was it was just a little bit it was just too expensive. So our goal is to bring new consumers into the mix with new categories, new products to really broaden the opportunity for the brand. Got it. Maybe if you could just amplify a little bit more. What will be different from a consumer's perspective other than price point between the pure product and the classic UGG boots? Well, we can't the differences are pretty significant because they are we're able to engineer the product to precisely the spec we want. So to give you an example, at the current level of classic product, we are known for the density of the material. The wool inside is quite dense. It lasts a long time. It's very thick and plush and that will continue. One of the problems with making product that is thinner in the sense that it's a lighter weight for say warmer weather, is that when you shave the wool down, it loses its durability. It compacts over time. And this new technology allows us to engineer density and not have to have the thickness, which allows us to make diversify the number of styles we can make. We can make styles that are closer to the foot. We can also engineer different densities of material for different seasons, different weights, etcetera. So all of this was a very big limitation when you're just dealing with conventional sheepskin, which comes only one way and you're very limited in what you can do to create differentiation. So we're going to be able to now differentiate the product line much more completely than we ever had in the past. Have you tested this product in store to see the receptivity or the differences between purchase behavior around the Classics versus the Pure? We have tested it extensively with consumers. And as I said, it is preferred actually. And when it's a blind test, we think that the consistency of the material by the way, TwinFasheapskin is not a very consistent material. It actually there's a tremendous amount of variation from both regions of the world where the hides come from and the seasons in which the winter that the animal has lived through. So that's been an issue and it's a natural product. So it's created a lot of this type of a challenge for our product development teams that I think we've been able now to overcome a lot of that. Got it. Looking forward to seeing it. Good luck with the rest of the year. Thank you. Thanks. And our final question will come from Chris Svezia with Susquehanna Financial Group. Good afternoon, everyone. Congrats. So I guess my first question is just going back on the inventory piece. Tom for you, I mean if you're down slightly or flattish in the second quarter, how do we think about the inventory growth progression in the back of the year? Does it run roughly in line with sales? Or how do we think about that? I think that what I'd like to comment on there is, I think by the Q3, it's a big quarter. We're going to need the inventory to support that. And I think I'd like to push you to the Q4. I think we're comfortable that by the end of the year, we expect the inventory levels to be down relative to where they were a year ago. So at the end of December 2013, that inventory you'll be looking at will be down relative to what the inventory was at the end of December 2012. Okay. All right. And then, Angel, for you, when you talk about PUGPure, 10%, I guess, of the linings and ultimately getting to 25%. Any time frames around that this year, next year? I'm just kind of curious when you hit those targets. We're moving as aggressively as we can. Again, we're building a supply chain around this material from scratch. I don't want to overstress the supply chain and create serious problems on our end. So we're going to be we're moving very aggressively. I would say 2 to 3 years would be a reasonable window in which we expect that 25% number. But if we can move faster, we will. Okay. All right. And then on Hill and the PEP, I think in the last call you made some comment about how you're looking at distribution in the U. S. And those retailers that either are not showing the brand in its entirety etcetera or just focus too much on the classics. I mean, how where do we stand right now on that thought process in terms of maybe some consolidation at U. S. Wholesale for the UGG brand? Yes. That's an ongoing conversation. It's a season to season conversation. We're pretty happy with our stable of retailers, I'd say. The vast majority value the UGG brand for them. It's sort of an irreplaceable part of their revenue and profit picture on a year round basis. So it's a very, very important brand for them. We don't see that many violators out there of our MAP policy. And when we do, we take appropriate action. Retailers have been very cooperative in offering the spread and assortment of product that we've asked them to, given that in fact some retailers just don't have the room. They don't have the type of store that is appropriate for all of our products. We understand that. So we're very flexible in working with people. And I'd say that so far the response has been extremely positive. Yet there are still fringe players out there who are opportunistic and just want to use a brand as a loss leader or in some cases as a way of messing up a market, I suppose. Some people will constantly try to get the brand so that they can just claim they have UGG and they will not be undersold and violate everyone's sort of the integrity of our distribution. We're a lot more aggressive and we come down on that behavior quite hard. So we'll continue to do that. This is just it's an ongoing management year round and it's also also distribution management globally now as well. It's not just the U. S, it's all over the world. Right. Okay. And then last question I have is just on this. I just want to understand something on the cancellation rate. If this time last year, I don't think you anticipated what would happen in Q3 and I'm sure that's where you saw the majority of happen in Q3 and I'm sure that's where you saw the majority of your cancellations occur. I mean, if we come to the Q3 and you obviously don't see that level of cancellations, I mean, how do we think about the revenue thought process there if that doesn't materialize? I'm just trying to understand that for a second in terms of how you think about that cancellation rate being the same year over year. Yes. I think another thing to point out, Chris, is last year not only do we have a fair amount of cancellations in the Q3, we had a fair amount in the Q4 too when the weather got sort of inconsistent. So just keep that in mind from your thinking perspective. And if everything else being equal, we have less cancellations and we've assumed in our guidance, everything else being equal, we should have some upside to our wholesale number. Okay. All right. Fair enough. Thanks and all the best. Thank you. All right. Thanks. And that does conclude the question and answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks. Well, thank you all for joining us on the call. And I think we've made significant progress in this year. We'll continue to drive the opportunities that we feel we have for this company across all of our brands. And we look forward to the next call. Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation today.