Good morning, everyone. Ryan Sigdahl here, Senior Analyst at Craig-Hallum. With me is Founder and CEO Jason Robins. Thanks for taking the time, Jason.
Thank you. Thanks for having me.
So, similar to the past years, these are topic-specific. This year, we will be talking the current state of OSB in the U.S. So, a lot going on with weekly volatility in sports outcomes, the mix of parlays, to taxes, to competition, etc., etc., that we will get into here. But maybe to start, Jason, you detailed on your Q3 call, and as we saw kind of in the state data and the outcomes, but rough start from a sports-friendly October. But anything surprising? And how did November turn out?
You know, we definitely don't want to get into the habit of giving week-to-week or month-to-month updates. But I would say November was a more typical month, even a little on the positive side. You know, yesterday was not. So, it kind of goes up and down depending on the day and depending on the week. But, you know, over the course of time, obviously, everything kind of regresses to the mean.
Yeah, and we all stare at, or many of us stare at New York weekly. It's just because it's a very important state, and they give weekly data, and it looks quite a bit smoother and normal as you get over the past five weeks. From those October winnings, anything change from a player standpoint, better engagement? Are they returning those winnings back in a bigger, better way, but anything notable from that standpoint?
We've seen great engagement. You know, I think it's hard to sort of point to whether it has anything to do with winning or not. I definitely think that, you know, conceptually, it makes sense, but, you know, from what we've seen, there isn't, if there is an effect, there isn't a tremendously large effect on future handle from, you know, whether week-to-week players are winning or not. But, you know, nevertheless, we are seeing tremendous engagement.
You know, some of the best numbers we've seen, really, all seasons till now, and so, at this point, you know, midway through the season, sometimes you hit a little bit of a lull, but we're not seeing that this year. It's been fantastic. NBA got off to a really great start, so really excited about that, so, you know, really seeing great traction across all sports right now.
Maybe taking a step back, U.S. market, the evolution here. We love to compare it to the U.K. just because it was the biggest market prior to the U.S., and it's the oldest one that we can compare to. But we've seen technology, parlays, Bet Builder, a lot of those things, features just coming to those markets. How do you think the U.K. versus expectations, kind of how that evolved versus what you're seeing in the U.S.?
You know, it's so early in the U.S. that it's hard to compare, really. I mean, obviously, there's a lot of similarities between the U.K. and the U.S., both Western cultures, English-speaking, but then there's some differences. The sport mix is obviously completely different, where global soccer is the vast majority of revenue in the U.K., and here, obviously, it's, you know, it's not nearly that, and other sports, which are very small in the U.K., like the NFL, are the most important ones here, so, definitely, you know, a different market in some ways, similar market in others.
For a long time, I had always heard, and well, I shouldn't say a long time, still early in the market, but first few years in the market, I would hear often that, you know, the U.K. And betting there is just, it's part of the culture, and it'll never be that here. And, you know, I always thought to myself, I just don't buy that. The U.S. kind of leads, you know, almost, I think, in every single entertainment spend per capita in the world category. So, I don't know why this would be different. Obviously, gaming in general is very large in the U.S., whether it be through lotteries or casinos.
So, it never quite made sense to me, but we always kind of viewed the U.K. as at least the floor. And I think what you're seeing now is that the U.S. is probably going to be larger comparatively on a per, you know, GDP or per capita standpoint, however you look at it, how big and how much bigger we'll see. Obviously, there's a lot to do, to your point on, you know, the evolution of the U.K. was very different with, for, you know, the first several years of the market, the products were much more rudimentary. Live betting wasn't a thing.
Obviously, the U.S. had the benefit of, you know, starting later and having more fully developed products, technology that wasn't available back then. Mobile was barely a thing, you know, when the U.K. first sort of actually wasn't. It was, you know, smart devices didn't come till nearly a decade after the U.K. started the mobile market or the online market. So, obviously, very different in that regard, too. But we'll have to see where it caps out. But I think for sure it's going to be a lot, you know, at least amongst the regulated markets, it'll be the largest in the world by any measure.
You think about your biggest peers in the U.S., have international, thinking Flutter, Entain, but they have international businesses that have been around a long time, that they've evolved those products to the U.S. market. You guys are U.S. born, you're U.S., you know, native, and you've built this product for the U.S. market. But can you compare and contrast, kind of, if you think that's an advantage or potentially starting at a disadvantage, given what they had?
You know, I think it's a bit of both initially, because, obviously, you know, while having a presence and focus here, having, you know, a customer base, having all of those things here, having a brand all helped a ton. Initially, we were behind when it came to product and technology, and it wasn't until we acquired SBTech and then ultimately, you know, put a lot of work into it over the last several years that we feel like we're really at the premier place in the market when it comes to our technology and product capabilities.
So, I think that what you're seeing is, over time, that's going to become more and more of an advantage, because the things that we were initially behind on, we have been able to rapidly close the gap and now, in some cases, actually get out ahead of the vast majority of our competitors in the market now. So, I think that if you look at it over time, we believe that having that focus and having that knowledge and really just being all about winning in the U.S. at this stage is very helpful.
But I also think that, you know, over time, we will be able to expand globally, too, and that there are benefits to having a platform across the world. For example, you opened up this conversation by asking me about the NFL outcomes. You know, if you have a lot of markets that are betting on soccer and other sports predominantly, the NFL outcomes become less of a, you know, a variance in the business. Not that that matters long term, because, you know, over the long term, it should smooth out, but there are benefits to having more diversification across different sports and different geographies.
So, you know, it is something that we believe there will be a place for us to do in time. But I do think that what you're seeing now is that some of the advantages that we've had of focus are really being combined with now having closed gaps and starting to put some distance between us and most of the competition in many categories of both the sports and casino offering. You know, we feel like this is a time where we really can continue to gain share and do well.
Yeah, it's a good segue into the product side, because you guys have made a lot of progress the past couple of years, I think, closing that gap, namely with FanDuel and the kind of head start Flutter had. We've seen hold improve. You've narrowed that gap. They still have a lead there. One thing that comes up a lot is pricing. FanDuel emphasizes kind of best pricing and trading.
I guess, how much of that delta between you and them do you think really is the pricing and trading capabilities versus VIP mix is something, you know, that might be a little bit structurally different? But can you talk through kind of how your acquisitions, the SBTech, the evolution there, and then what closes that gap between you and them?
Yeah, I don't think that really. Yeah, I'm sure there's little nuances that, you know, can range from everything from which sports that we might be more, or they might be more, you know, have more share in to, you know, what percentage comes from live betting, you know. But I think there's very little difference that can't be explained by bet mix. That's the vast majority of it. And anything else is sort of, you know, just marginal, I think. You know, not to say that collectively there isn't a long tail of a lot of those things. And, you know, like I said, for example, we happen to do really well in college.
And college happens to be a lower hold sport. FanDuel does a little better than us in NBA, which happens to be the highest hold sport. So, there are things like that. But I do think that those are still very much marginal. And, you know, the vast majority of difference between our hold rates is bet mix. If you look at it from a handle share standpoint, we're actually neck and neck, even a little ahead of them. Player-wise, we're about even. So, you know, I like the fact that we're at a place where we get sort of the same benefits of network effects and other kinds of things that come with being a market leader.
But we're actually, you know, still staring at so much upside with every move upward of hold rate. And to me, that's the most exciting place about where we are. It's not, how do we figure out how to grow handle another 20%-30% on top of what we think we can do next year. It's just, how do we move another 25, 50, 100 basis points of hold rate? And that in and of itself is going to create tremendous value on the size of handle that we're generating now. So, to me, that's the most exciting thing. And then, as you kind of go down further in the P&L, we feel we win across the board.
We have a much better promo efficiency than anyone in the market. Our marketing and CAC is better than anyone in the market at the scale that we're at. So, we feel very good about, you know, all the other kind of key components, and we know what we have to do to move the hold rate. And we've made a ton of progress on it over the last year or two, and I think we're going to continue to do that over the next couple of years.
NBA, the highest hold. Good to hear that you say it's off to a fantastic start. And I agree, the flywheel is just starting to accelerate here. One of the things that over the past couple of years, the evolution is, a couple of years ago, maybe three, four years ago when we did the first one of these, Jason Robins, it was, you know, you guys were talking about that flywheel and what was working for you. And then we had, you know, several dozen other sports folks that all thought they were going to get 10% market share. That was seemingly the bogey that everybody thought they could get to.
That's fizzled pretty quickly. How do you see the market evolving from here? It's very top-heavy. Right now, between the top two, there are several kind of competitors in that tier two that have big ambitions. But how do you see kind of the next several years? And maybe taking a step back, three years ago to today, did it evolve as you thought it would from a market share standpoint, competitive standpoint? And then how do you see the next couple of years?
Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, you know, I actually, my IR team always is like, we're getting asked about the next wave of competitors. It's like, hasn't, you know. But I kind of like it, because I think that it's important to always have new competition, aggressive competition in the market. It keeps the team and it keeps everybody really, you know, focused on winning with the customer and keeps that edge. And we've always, for better or for worse, been a company that does better when we feel like we're, you know, under some sort of pressure. And it's easy to get complacent.
We obviously would try not to, but easy to get complacent when you don't have that. So, I kind of like feeling it, even if in the back of my mind, I also know, you know, we've seen now multiple waves of competitors. No one has been able yet to make a dent in the top two of the market. So, I don't think that it's likely that you're going to see that. And it seems like most investors, even though they ask about it, get it. It used to be, now it feels like a check-the-box question versus a real, you know, question of how are eight different companies going to have 10%-20% share.
But, you know, we also don't take anything for granted. I think that, you know, everything that we do every day, we have to earn with the customer, and we realize that. And there's always a potential for disruption if you take your eye off of that. So, I think having that edge, you know, having the ability to always point to somebody that's coming after us has been helpful. You know, I think that'll continue, because even though I don't think that there's going to be a huge dynamic effect, if anything, I think you're going to see more consolidation to the top in terms of share.
What I also think you're going to see is that, you know, a lot of companies, as this market continues to evolve, that are losing money now will figure out how to survive at smaller levels of scale. You know, that's something that I think, you know, is you're at a disadvantage for sure. But as long as you're profitable, you can continue to keep going. I think there are companies that will do that. You know, I kind of see more consolidation and share at the top, but I also don't see a complete disappearance of the long-tail competitors either.
I think there's always going to be somebody, you know, that is the next kind of, you know, threat or the next one that everybody's talking about for sure.
I agree. It's long been our thesis. There is a place for the tier two if they run it and operate it appropriately and rationally. It can be strategic and profitable.
We'll still have to long term, right? Like, there's a phase where everyone goes for it. But at some point, companies will say, look, this is where I'm at. And I think the smart ones will realize if they are going to gain share, you have to do it over time. There's just, I think the one thing we've proven is this come, you know, grab a bunch out of the gate isn't going to work. It's just, it's never proven effective. And I think that that's something that hopefully, you know, the smarter companies that survive will realize that you got to kind of grind out and build product and try to earn it over time. So, I do think that you'll see that.
But like I said, I also think that the advantages of being at the level of scale that we're at are so great that, you know, the reinvestment that we can make into our product and into expanding our offerings and the data that we have and the ability to buy at scale and acquiring customers, those things are really, really hard to overcome. But it doesn't mean you can't build a nice little company on a few percent share finding a niche in the market.
Sign-up bonuses acquire customers, and it's fantastic for doing that, but product and user experience retain them, and you guys certainly are proving that out. Shifting over a little bit to in-game mix, seems like a bigger focus now, parlays the past couple of years really getting the Same Game Parlay, the Progressive Parlays.
A lot of innovation and feature enhancement there, which makes a lot of sense from the hold standpoint that it brings, but can you talk about in-game betting, how much of an importance or, I guess, focus that is now maybe versus where it was in the pipeline a couple of years ago, and then what are some of the feature enhancements that can potentially be an accelerant to that?
Yeah, I think in-game, if you look at, you know, overseas, the trajectory is going to continue to rise in the U.S. If it follows, I mean, you asked the question earlier, how much can we sort of take from the U.K.? And obviously, you never know, things could be different. But this is one that I think will follow a similar trend, which is as time goes on, you're going to see more and more growth coming from in-game betting. So, you know, I think that right now, we actually feel that, you know, unlike kind of a few years ago where we were on the parlay side, we're actually playing from a position of strength within game.
We think we have the best offering as it stands today in the market. So, we want to build on that and really continue to make it a differentiation point. It's something that I think, you know, if you come back to kind of like hold and all that, it's really not about hold in and of itself. It's about monetization of the player, LTV. There are multiple components of that from retention to spend to, you know, what type of, you know, frequency that you're getting.
And I think that, you know, in-game, while certainly maybe not a creative to hold rate, is very much a creative to, you know, spend per customer and LTV. At least that is what we have seen thus far in the in-game betting we have. And that has certainly been the experience from, you know, overseas.
So, that's something we really think that while we continue to drive the hold rate up, we can also maybe, you know, create an advantage by having an LTV advantage when it comes to, you know, the best in-game offerings and the most volume coming through that and something that we hope we'll be able to continue to build on.
It's a good point. As we all stare at hold and want to see that structurally keep moving higher as in-game is slightly lower, but the velocity is so much higher and diversification of.
It's monetization of the player, right? And so, hold is a component of that. So, is promo rate. You know, these are all parts of it. And so, I think you got to remember not to overly fixate on one thing, not to say that we don't feel there's room. We think actually hold is one of the biggest places of upside that we have right now. So, definitely a focal point. But, you know, I have to remind my team always, I think it's important for investors to remember that there are multiple levers that go into driving monetization and LTV of a player. And that's really what we're trying to maximize here, not just one metric.
Taxes, much more of a focus area, I think, six, nine months ago than maybe it is today. You had Illinois that raised taxes. You've had several other states that have talked about it, but haven't really come close to doing anything. Missouri, most recent state to legalize, should come kind of mid to late next year live, but very reasonable, below average 10% tax rate there.
So, I guess point I'm trying to make is not all states are pushing for the New York type 50%, 51% plus type tax rates. But what did you see from Missouri? And maybe where do you think the market goes? We know your thoughts generally on taxes and maintaining reasonable balance taxes overall for all parties, but just any thoughts on Missouri and kind of breaking that trend?
Yeah, I mean, I think Missouri, you know, and every state has its own. Missouri is a ballot initiative, but every state has their own process, their own politics. So, you're going to see different states approach it differently. I just think it's important that we educate, you know, the industry at this point. If you kind of count taxes plus free cash flow, you know, something like 80%-90% of our free cash flow is going to taxes right now.
So, that'll obviously change as time goes on. But when you think about it that way, you know, we're going to end up paying close to $1.7 billion in taxes this year on, you know, we guided to just under $300 million in EBITDA. Like, that sounds a little crazy, right? So, you know, hopefully as we continue to educate, we will see more, you know, discipline among states as they're setting tax rates. And I think, you know, they just have to understand that we're competing with an illegal market that pays no taxes and puts no money into things like responsible gaming and following regulations.
So, in order for us to be able to do that, we have to have reasonable tax rates. Great to see that Missouri is a reasonable tax rate and hopefully a sign of things to come in future legalization.
To be clear, that is gaming tax that's in the cost of sales. Your EBITDA conversion to free cash flow is extremely good.
Yeah, exactly. Sorry. So, that is COGS. But, you know, if you kind of put it that way to the states, a lot of them are like, well, yeah, I didn't realize that. And I think there's some education to be done. I think that there's a belief among some politicians, incorrectly so, that, you know, the companies can compete at those levels of taxes like you have in New York. And we just have to continue to find ways to explain that that's not the case.
Media. So, a bigger focus kind of these integrated media strategies. You guys, you know, acquired a few companies and started to push more towards that. But how do you think about media and the importance for online sports betting for a strategy and for a brand today maybe versus what you thought a couple of years ago and where you want to go with that?
Yeah, I assume you mean in-house produced like content. So, I think that there's a place for it. It really intertwines with the marketing, and it's kind of hard to separate it because the way that we think about it is, you know, less sort of, hey, how do we build a complete standalone media business that we would be doing anyway regardless of whether we're doing sports betting and more, how do we use this to create synergies for marketing and effectively, you know, increase our reach and our customer acquisition at a more efficient cost?
So, more tactically, we would say, okay, if we have a program that we can, you know, the sort of net equation between the production of that and the ad sales or other revenues that we're going to generate is going to be less, hopefully break even, but even if it's, you know, slightly in the red, if it's less than what we would have spent to sponsor that show, we're better off acquiring the rights and doing that in-house. And so, that's kind of how we've approached it so far. We've had some great partners in the space that have really helped us prove this out.
You know, but for us right now, it's a very, you know, small thing and it's a component of how we look at marketing. Again, not something I don't think there's a place for. I do, but I wouldn't say it's, you know, a huge needle mover in terms of it's more of an optimization for us.
Last question, Jason, but what are you excited about as we head into 2025?
I think 2025 is going to be another huge growth year. Every sign is pointing to that. Obviously, really excited about the state legislative front. You know, 2024 was an election year. It's always hard to get gaming bills done in an election year. I think this year coming up, 2025, we're going to get some real momentum, potentially even get some iGaming bills over the hump, which would be great. You know, those are some of the things that I'm really excited for what we have planned on the product front.
We have an incredible product roadmap and I think really you're going to start to see us make huge accelerations in live betting and continue to drive that hold rate up. A lot of upside we think there. Really excited, big year coming up.
Sounds like Minnesota might even get over the finish line this year.
I hope so.
From a sports standpoint.
I hope so. We got to get that done for you, Ryan.
It's close. Sounds like we got there last minute last year, just a minute too late. But with that, we are on time. Jason, very much appreciate the time today. Thank you, everyone, for joining.
Thank you.