Good morning to you all. I'm James Wheatcroft from the Jefferies European Leisure team. I'm delighted to be hosting Jason Robins, the Founder and CEO of DraftKings. Welcome, Jason.
Thank you for having me.
Absolute pleasure. We've got an audience here, and I'm just going to run through some questions just to give us a bit of background maybe to start off with. There've been a few debates in the sector over the course of the last several months. I think the simple narrative being that prediction markets have arrived. They've been cannibalizing online sports betting, and that's been evidenced by handle decline. How do you explain handle decline over the course of the last sort of fourth quarter and into this year? We see other reasons potentially in recycling, et cetera, sharps, et cetera. Perhaps you could give your views on why that handle has declined and maybe what the prospects are for it going forward.
Yeah, it's a great question. There's been a lot of focus on handle. We've tried to focus people on handle as a metric, not the metric, and looking at it in context of other metrics. What I mean by that is, in Q1, our handle did not have a big increase, but our net revenue went up 24%. We mentioned on our earnings call in April we were only up 6% in handle, but we were up 30% year-over-year in sportsbook net revenue. Really, why is that occurring? Why is there such a gap? There's a couple things going on. One, there's just some things natural to the industry, nothing to do with predictions. Meaning, the industry and us in particular, have been significantly improving our net win margins by increasing hold and getting more efficient with promotions, with generosity.
Those two things, of course, have some impact on handle.
Yeah.
We have seen in periods where we get customer-friendly sport outcomes that our handle in subsequent days and weeks goes up. Where we have periods that we spend more on promotions, our handle in the subsequent days and weeks goes up. Similarly, when we're spending less on promotions or having a good run of outcomes or higher hold for whatever reason, we see that have a negative impact on handle. That's one point is I think there is just the interplay between those things, and you have to kind of view it in context of the net revenue and net win margin. The second thing, though, which more is on the question you asked on predictions, I do think that we have looked at enough data that I feel pretty confident that we are not seeing any material cannibalization on the revenue front from predictions.
We have looked at all sorts of different data, that is something that we feel very confident that is true as of today at least. Where I do think we are seeing some cannibalization is on the handle front, particularly from professional bettors and institutional bettors that are now concentrating a lot of their efforts on market making on prediction markets. That handle is generally low or even negative margin handle, which is why it's not really impacting revenue in any meaningful way.
It is, I think, having some impact on the handle as well. If there is anything happening from predictions, we believe it's in that professional bettor, institutional bettor segment, where clearly predictions is a product that allows them to do what they're trying to do a little bit more easily than on the sports betting product. Now, of course, in predictions, you got to be careful of that because you don't want these professional bettors feasting on all of the casual customers. That's something that in predictions, specifically in our product and also the rest of the industry, we're going to have to figure out how to manage that ecosystem.
Yeah. How should we think about handle growth as we move through the rest of 2026 in terms of the shape of it? Obviously, we've got a big upcoming event in terms of the World Cup football. Is that going to stimulate new content at a sort of quiet time of year and get customers re-involved?
We're really excited about World Cup. It's one of those that I have a feeling is going to be big, but we kind of don't have any great data point. We've only had one World Cup since sports betting has been legal in the U.S. This is a very different one, obviously, with the games occurring in the United States and being there and living there's just so much more hype, so much more buzz around it than I have seen in prior World Cup years. Not that there hasn't been some, but this is at a whole different level.
Yeah.
I have a lot of reason to believe it's going to be a huge World Cup, and I actually think betting and prediction markets are going to fuel a lot of that interest in the World Cup. I think a lot of people are going to pay attention and follow more because they have something riding on the game. That's something I really do believe, but it's kind of uncharted territory, so don't really know. We are going to treat it as though it's going to be a big event. As always, we are very nimble and can dial up or down marketing investments based on what kind of data we're seeing and results we are seeing. We will do that as we always do. We're going in thinking this is going to be a big thing.
We also are using this World Cup as a real testing ground for a lot of the messaging and creative that we intend to utilize this fall for our super app. One of the big things that we think gives us an advantage in the prediction space is we already have all of this marketing spend that we're doing on a national level, and we have major partnerships with companies like ESPN and NBC and many others. That gives us this big national marketing footprint to that sports-centric audience. In the prior to predictions world, we were only reaching about half of that audience because only about half of the U.S. population has access to legal online sportsbook. Now we can make that work across the entire population. We have rolled out messaging we are going to be heavily testing during World Cup.
Putting out there that DraftKings is available now everywhere and anywhere you are in the country, you can have action on sports, you can trade on sports, bet on sports, whatever the product available in your market is. We're not going to make that the customer's issue. We're not going to say, "Okay, you have to figure out if I'm in this state, I need to get the predictions app," or "If I'm in that state, I need to get the sportsbook app." We're putting everything into that single super app that has all sports content and all content for all of our verticals, regardless of what state you're in and what products you're eligible for.
If you're a customer in California or in Texas that doesn't have access to sportsbook, you were all these years getting that marketing message through those partnerships and other places, but you couldn't download the product, and now all of a sudden you can use it. We believe that'll make our marketing much more efficient than it's ever been. We expect to have a really big year, a back part of the year. The World Cup is going to be an important testing ground to really hone that messaging, get the conversion funnels working at the optimal level, and all those sorts of things.
We should sort of see handle picking up through the World Cup and as we then go into engaged customers for the sort of NFL season ahead?
I think a lot of the impact will be felt in prediction volume.
Yeah
volume together. Yes, I do think sportsbook handle will continue to be more of a single-digit grower, but revenue growth should be higher.
Yeah. Well, let's talk about prediction markets. You published some quite interesting data yesterday. Just give us a feel for how you think your rollout for prediction market product is going at the moment, what you've learned so far, how we should think about sort of shaping it and sizing it in the rest of this year and into next year.
Well, it's very early, we have been extremely encouraged by what we've seen, and the data we shared yesterday, I think is evidence of that. We start with the product. We have always, and this has been like a thing for DraftKings since day one, said that the secret to our success will be building and continually improving and having the best customer experience, the best products, the best offerings in the market. That is something that is enabled by our technology. We have an extremely fast-moving engineering team. We can ship a product at a high velocity and with high quality, which is not easy to do. We've consistently done that, I think more than anyone in our industry, and that's part of why we have established what have been continually rated the best products in our core verticals. It really starts with that.
We launched predictions as an MVP product in December, it has dramatically improved since then. If you look at where it was at that first MVP versus where it is now, it's night and day, really. We feel like we now have a product that's pretty competitive, and it's going to continue to get better and better. Some of the key things coming up, we are in the process of rolling out our own exchange, DraftKings Exchange, which is still sort of in the preliminary testing mode. At some point, we are intending to start to shift a lot of our sports volume over to there. We are also just recently, in the last couple of months, stood up our own internal market-maker. We're seeing really strong, encouraging signs there.
It is already a profitable enterprise for us. We continue to scale up our share of volume on CME and crypto, which is where we're primarily doing our market-making. That's something we are very encouraged by, too. That makes sense for us because it really leverages a lot of the same capabilities that we've built for Sportsbook over the years, the pricing models, the trading desk. Those are all things that give us a huge leg up on the market-making side. We're also in the process of applying for our own FCM license, our own DCO license. We're working over time to bring more and more of those capabilities and licenses in-house.
From a consumer-facing perspective, we believe, even if that's not all completely controlled and in-house by DraftKings, that we will have the best sports product in the industry by the start of this NFL season. We really do feel like we have clear line of sight to that. We're not far off now. We're actually closing in right now. Really other than a few things, we're kind of almost already at parity. We think we can get better than the competition by the start of NFL.
Maybe just sort of double-click on that market-making piece. Just sort of thinking about what kind of stance you'll take in the market with that. How aggressive will you be? Will you take people on, as it were? How do you think you're sort of going to shape that over time?
It's an interesting question. The truth of it is we're still learning. I do think there will be more profitable parts of the market to focus on. RFQs definitely is a big focal point for us. We just recently launched Combos. That's something we're going to focus on from a market-making perspective as well. It's probably going to be a little bit of a focus thing. Within the places that we choose to focus, we want to have as much share as possible. I think ultimately we feel like other than maybe Flutter, potentially maybe bet365, not many companies out there that should have the underlying capability set that we have, certainly none of the traditional prediction markets players.
That's something that we think should be a huge advantage for us, and we do believe that a meaningful chunk of the economics in the ecosystem are going to go to the market makers. It's very important that we play in that space.
Yep. Maybe just think about the sort of the legal backdrop to prediction markets. We're obviously on a journey here. As you sit here today, how do you think that's going to evolve onto the Supreme Court, et cetera? Paint a picture for us in terms of that journey.
Well, it's obviously not quite 100% certain, but the kind of most likely scenario I have been told anyway is that the Supreme Court will end up taking this up. That will probably end up resulting in a ruling either late next year or early the following year. At that point, we'll have some level of clarity, at least from the court system. After that, it's sort of depending on the ruling, I guess, left in the hands of the CFTC, assuming it isn't a ruling that affirms the CFTC's jurisdiction. The CFTC has been solidly in support of sensible regulation of predictions, including sports predictions. We expect that to continue for the near term at least, and then we'll see as time evolves and politics are always interesting, so you never know where things are going to go.
We're focusing on what we can focus on, which is to build the best consumer experience, have something that we are doing, not just in a way that's good for DraftKings, but also responsible and making sure that even though this is a different product and it's trading, we bring a lot of the same Responsible Gaming principles and things like that we've brought to Sportsbook to the trading side of sports. We do believe that a lot of those things are very applicable and relevant, and it's another area where we've just built up so much. We have a Responsible Gaming, which we've now turned into a Responsible Trading for Prediction Center, and that's a huge advantage for us, too, not just with consumers, but with regulators.
Let's think about the other sort of legal piece of it as well. You spend a lot of time going around, I know, seeing politicians and regulators in all of these states advocating for the legalization of online sports betting and iGaming. Where do you think we've got to in that? Do you think that if we were to go to the Supreme Court and see that ratified for prediction markets, that states would then have to have a sort of stronger think about online sports betting, that in and of itself might be a catalyst for further legalization? How should we think about that on the sort of traditional SB side?
I absolutely think it will. We're already seeing traction on that front. I do think you're right that a Supreme Court ruling will probably be a bigger catalyst than just the potential of one. Already people are taking notice in states that don't have legal sports betting, and they are having conversations that feel very different from what we were hearing previously about really taking this seriously. It makes sense if you have an activity that is already occurring under a federal framework or something similar anyway is occurring under a federal framework, and you have an opportunity to regulate state online sports betting and collect tax revenue and protect consumers and all those things, it's very sound policy for a state to do that. I think it's sound policy either way, but particularly with that.
I do think that's going to be a big factor and like everything, it takes time, but I think that's going to motivate a lot of states to really move forward with sports betting.
Sort of maybe talking, touching on a couple of the bigger ones, say it's like a Georgia or a California, do you feel like there's some material progress? It looks like there's some progress there. What should we think about sort of timeframes for maybe either or both of those?
We have seen some progress in both of those states, obviously a very different situation. Georgia is a legislative thing, California would be a ballot initiative, and we really would need to partner with the tribes in order to make that successful. We have a lot of great relationships with many of the California tribes, but not all of them have been in favor of this.
What we are hearing is that some of the ones that have been skeptical of sports betting, I think the emergence of Predictions has really caused them to say, "Maybe we should reconsider our position on that." We're hopeful that much like the political side in state legislatures, that the tribal coalition in California, that they look at Predictions and say, "Okay, this is a real reason to move forward with an online sports betting framework." I don't think that it's something that ultimately most of the tribes don't want. It's really a handful of holdouts that are causing that. It's not like you have to get everybody to change their view. There are already quite a few tribes that are in favor of online sports betting in California, but there are a few that were not.
Too early to say, but we are starting to hear some signal that maybe some of them are reconsidering their positions.
Yeah. What about on the sort of iGaming front? That has been very slow relative to the legalization of online sports betting. What's the sort of the feedback that you're getting on that at the moment? Maybe in the sort of same breath, maybe give us a feel for how DraftKings has been going for online casino. It feels like that's still quite a significant opportunity ahead for you.
I think it's a big opportunity for us, both in the existing states where we absolutely believe we have an opportunity to accelerate our growth. We haven't been doing as much as we could on that front, and we have since made a lot of changes, including we have a new team leader that we brought in, and we also have quite a bit that we've done on the product front. I'm actually quite optimistic that we are going to start to really see some momentum on the iGaming side in existing states. To your point, probably the biggest opportunity is the fact that still almost 90% of the population does not have access to iGaming. That's a huge amount of potential TAM.
It's not obviously been as quick as you alluded to as we all had hoped, but I do think it's a when, not if, that a lot of these states are going to legalize iGaming. Customers want it. The tax revenue potential is real. We're seeing a lot of momentum develop in different states. Some that I would give as an example would be Virginia, Maryland, New York. Those are all states where there is keen interest in it. They're more, Washington, D.C. has put in their budget iGaming revenue, which is hopefully a good sign that if they're counting on it for their budget, that they have to obviously make sure they legalize it. Definitely seeing some momentum start to materialize there, but it hadn't moved as quickly as we thought. I still think it's a matter of when, not if, though.
There's various factors for that. There were a lot of states that in the years emerging from COVID had a lot of federal money that they had obtained, so the needs weren't as much. You're really in the last year or so starting to see states that really are running out of options for generation of tax revenue that they need to balance their budgets. I think a lot of states are going to look at it and say, "If I have the choice of either taxing my citizens or something else undesirable, cutting budget items that I don't want to cut or bringing in this huge new revenue stream where the companies that are going to pay it are actually raising their hand and saying, 'We want to be a part of this.
We are willing to.'" It's a lot easier than trying to raise your state income tax or something like that. I do think for policy reasons alone, it's got to be when, not if, in a lot of places. There's a lot of politics that go into this, and there are certainly opponents, so it's never a straight line.
Just in terms of your DraftKings product, it feels like you've sort of slightly repositioned the way you're targeting customers. Maybe give us a feel for what's been happening in that business and where the direction of travel is.
I think the biggest opportunity for us is we have had a real heavy focus historically on the table games audience and on cross-sell from Sportsbook. We have not probably focused enough on acquiring and monetizing the slots first customer, the casino first customer. That has since shifted. We are very focused there now. We're seeing really strong performance on the acquisition front, as well as a lot of new product development really paying off that we've rolled out on that. I think still early days in our refocus there. We're starting to see real signal that it's working. I think that's probably the biggest opportunity for us. There's a huge casino first, slots first audience that we had not previously reached with our sports marketing. I think we have a big opportunity to grow our share in that segment.
Right now, I think we probably have much, much higher share than anyone else of table games. We are absolutely under-indexing in slots share.
Yeah. Well, maybe we stick on the product subject. I think DraftKings has got a very strong reputation for product innovation. I think that's been there from the very beginning.
Thank you.
Tell us some of the new innovations that you've had in the product recently, and what should we think about going forward, including the prospect of adding in AI and how that's going to sort of make the business more efficient, et cetera?
Well, first of all, I appreciate you saying that, and I feel like the number 1 thing we have done best over the years is product really enabled by our great engineering and technology team, and AI is a huge part of that going forward. AI is not something new for us. We've been focusing on machine learning for years. We were deploying AI before the recent boom, probably at least a year before everyone else started talking about it. A lot of like what companies have struggled with hasn't been, "We can't do this. The tools aren't there." The tooling, as you know, has absolutely emerged in the last year or two. There is so much you can do now.
A lot of what companies have struggled with is adoption, getting people to change behaviors, getting people over the hurdle of, "Is this a threat to my job long term?" Because we were ahead of that and because we were investing in it before everybody was talking about it, we've already crossed a lot of those hurdles.
Yeah.
We already have a very strong engagement level from our employees on AI. In fact, we hear more from people that they want help figuring out how to apply it more meaningfully in what they're doing, versus resistance to it. We've created a central team, led by one of our executives, that is actually responsible for making sure that we're allocating AI engineering resources to the best and most high-impact projects and initiatives throughout the company. A lot of those are internal back office type stuff. A lot of those are customer facing things. It's truly impacting every element of the business. Some examples of that, the engineering capacity and the velocity with. We always were fast. It has gone to a whole new level now. We are shipping so much.
The quality level isn't suffering because the AI capabilities are just enhancing what we've already been able to do on the code development and QA front. It's not like we're shipping code at the expense of QA time or anything like that. It's simply doing more with the same quality or better quality standard that's enabled by agents. Customer service is another example. We think we can dramatically improve our SLA, without as much reliance on human customer service intervention going forward. Win-win, create a better customer experience with less cost for the company. Really, it's everywhere. There is not a single group throughout the business.
I was talking to my head of HR the other day, who's like, "I'm using it in recruiting." We've developed an AI coach so that questions that people have about their job that traditionally were answered by a manager, a lot of those can be answered through the AI coach now. Even simpler stuff like, how do I find this thing and whatever, like something that's not necessarily coaching, there's just so much management time that can be freed up. We're thinking about it in that way, like there's not a single part of the business. It's not just an engineering thing. That's something we've really stressed to the company. If you think it's just an engineering thing, think again. We've also really stressed to people that this is not about displacing jobs.
This is about making you better and more efficient at what you're doing and about you freeing up time so that you can do other things. Might we hire a little bit less going forward, and might we see some groups that over time are not as large as they are now? Yes. Don't be concerned that you're going to develop some agent that's going to take your job away. In fact, be concerned about the opposite. If you're not adopting AI, that's where we're going to potentially have to make some hard decisions on people because we need everyone in the company to be at the forefront of this.
Yeah. Very interesting. Maybe let's do a sort of few financially tight ones. Guidance for this year feels like it's very conservative. That's the way you styled it when you've been talking to the market, I think. How do you get that balance between having numbers which are, you want to deliver a beat, I get that, and numbers which are going to be arriving close to that guidance?
Can you say the question one more time?
Just in terms of the guidance, it feels like it's very conservative.
Yeah. Well, we want to make sure because there's predictions, and we don't know if that's going to be something that we maybe want to lean in a little more on. We want to make sure we have enough cushion in there that if we need to invest more than we thought in predictions, we are not going to miss our guidance. When we first went public, we were very cautious with guidance, and we repeatedly were hitting or beating. A lot of it was sport outcomes, but still no excuse. We had a couple quarters over the last year and a half that we missed, and that's something that we do not want.
It happens, but we don't want it to happen, and we want to gain the confidence of investors that they can trust that we're going to hit the numbers we put out there, even when there's a lot of moving parts like there are today. Going into a year where we know that there might be a meaningful investment, and will be, I should say, a meaningful investment in predictions.
We wanted to make sure that we were appropriately cautious about the overall guide we're giving. The good news is the core business outside of the predictions investment is performing at an exceptional level. We think we're going to do a billion-plus in adjusted EBITDA outside of the predictions investment this year. We're very excited about that. The predictions investment is going to be strictly data-driven. The vast majority of it will be marketing. Obviously, there's some fixed costs, but that's probably only about 10% of what we're guiding to spend on predictions. Most of it is marketing investment, and we're only going to invest those marketing dollars if we're seeing a good CAC to LTV and we feel like the returns are justified.
Well, maybe sort of dial into that a bit, because you're obviously now able to access all U.S. citizens with your marketing.
You're spending your $200 million-$300 million this year on prediction markets. Give us a feel for what that's going to do to sort of the CAC and LTV metrics.
That's the part that I'm excited about. We, for years, have been marketing nationally, we buy advertising. We have partnerships with companies where we are advertising to everyone. Only about half the country is able to actually download, but actually use the sports book.
That's a huge waste that has been in the system, now without spending additional dollars, just by refining that messaging, we are going to be able to reach 100% of the United States. Huge difference. Obviously there's a bit of an education process. People in states like California and Texas are probably used to seeing those ads and thinking, "I can't get this in my state." We really have to make sure that's part of what we're doing. A lot of what we're testing in World Cup is messaging on DraftKings is now available everywhere. DraftKings is nationwide. What if this is effective, which I believe it will be, means is we are going to probably have the most efficient CAC we've had maybe ever.
That $200 million-$300 million, the bulk of which is marketing, most of that, or really all of that marketing, is going to be local spend in key strategic states like a California, like a Texas, where we feel like there's a large market opportunity and we can heavy up locally because the numbers, the returns will justify it. So much of the value we're going to get is going to just be from repurposing existing spend.
Yeah.
That's a huge advantage we have. When people say, "Oh, what if this prediction competitor that spends a lot of money" I say, "Well, we're already spending a lot of money, if we can get all that money, which I believe we can, working on a nationwide basis, that is a hugely powerful thing to have.
Mm-hmm. Medium-term EBITDA margin target of 30%. Obviously some way to get there. Perhaps give us a few of the building blocks that you've described to get us to that point.
I think the biggest pieces of it, if you look today, we obviously have the revenue then gets turned into gross profit. Today our gross profit is in the high 40s. We believe we can get that a few points higher. Some of that will come purely from just natural scale, meaning promotions. As new customer promotions become less and less a piece of the pie, that will improve our gross margins. We also think there's some opportunity on the payment cost side and various other pieces of that. We think we can get a few more points out of the gross margin. As you kind of travel down the P&L, the biggest levers are marketing and fixed costs. Fixed costs, I mentioned earlier, we don't think we have to grow very much, if at all.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that goes down a little bit over time, just due to some of the things on the AI side that we feel can be really impactful on our efficiency. Then marketing. Marketing, of course, with predictions in the short term is going to go up a little bit. As states mature and as the ultimate industry matures, we aren't going to need to spend as much on customer acquisition. If you sort of look at it now, right, we are opening up twice as much of the population with predictions, but we're not doubling our marketing spend.
On a per state, on a per capita basis, we're actually going to be spending less. As that revenue comes in, we're not going to have to increase marketing. In fact, marketing may actually come down a little bit over time. What that will result in is a lot of that new revenue dropping to the bottom line between very little to maybe negative fixed cost and marketing growth. You're essentially talking about dropping all of that gross margin to the bottom line. Those are really the building blocks, but a lot of this is going to kind of depend on how the customer acquisition environment around predictions evolves. In the short term, we'll spend a little bit more there.
I do think if you separate out and look at what we're calling the core business, the non-predictions piece of the business, we feel like we have clear line of sight, though, even without the predictions side.
Yeah. Very interesting. Let's have a think about sort of capital allocation. How should we be thinking about that going forward? Buybacks, maybe acquisitions, and maybe turning that with a question around sort of do you see some sort of strategic merit for moving DraftKings outside North America?
Well, it's a great question. I'll come to that one in a moment. On the first part of your question, I think we have to look obviously at what we believe the investment in prediction should be. We'll know a lot more about that after we get some data this NFL season, what that will look like in 2027. I do think regardless, though, and it's more a matter of how much, we will continue to utilize our share buyback program. We think that's an excellent use of capital, particularly with where our shares are trading today. We think there's a lot of value there. In general, even outside of that, we're just focused on share buybacks.
We would Obviously, if we saw better uses of capital in some ways, we'd look at them, we don't really see a whole lot of big capital uses outside of that predictions investment and buybacks at the moment. That, to your point, means, of course, that we probably will not, in the short term, be looking at using a lot of cash for big M&A deals.
Not to say that at some point that couldn't change, of course. You never know when the right opportunity comes along, but that's not a focus point for us now. We just feel like we have too much value in both buying back shares and investing in organic growth. That doesn't mean we won't do anything internationally. I do think that that is something that at some point, we want to do. We feel like a lot of the assets that we've built are very leverageable in the global gaming market, and we feel like we can be very competitive in the global gaming market. It's just how that we're still figuring out. There might be some small-scale M&A or organic type of things that we consider, but probably unlikely to do any major M&A on that front in the short term. You never know.
Things can always change, but that's not where our heads are at right now.
Yep. Sort of a nice wide-open question just to sort of give a picture in terms of where you think the exciting opportunities are over the next sort of 12 to 14 months. I'm assuming prediction markets, please.
Prediction markets is obviously the big one. We think that is transformational in terms of our growth and our ability to acquire customers and be efficient with marketing and all the different things I talked about. I see a huge opportunity in iGaming. We think we can absolutely accelerate the growth there. We've been lagging the market, we know why. We feel like we've clearly identified the reasons and the things, we've since put action plans in place on the product and marketing front that we believe are going to result in accelerated iGaming growth. Those are two big ones I would point towards. Then, of course, just continuing to compete and gain share and win the customer in our traditional sportsbook business. We've been having a great run on that.
I think we clearly have the best product in the market now. We've been gaining share consistently, so that's something that I expect we'll continue to do as well.
Very good. My colleague, Emmy, has been polling questions from customers and investors. Over to you, Emmy.
Sure. Thanks, Jason, and thank you so much for joining us today. As James mentioned, we've been speaking to a couple of investors on this, obviously. One topic I want to ask on first that I think is a really important point is, you briefly mentioned it at the beginning on parlay, how do you see medium-term, the appetite from your customers for accumulator or parlay products evolving, and what does that mean for your net margin medium term?
Parlays or accumulators, as we know they are called here, that's been a huge focus point for us over the last few years, and we have consistently been growing our parlay mix by about 300-400 basis points a year, and we don't see that slowing down. I don't know where the ceiling is. It's certainly much higher than where we're at today. We know that that's possible both because our chief competitor, FanDuel, has a bit of a higher parlay mix today in the U.S., but also because we look at markets like Europe, and we see a much higher accumulator mix at the more mature phase. We do think that the ceiling is much higher than where we are today, and we also are seeing that consistent 300-400 basis points a year growth.
I think there's at least several more years that we're going to see of that continuing to go up. What that means in terms of win margins, right now, we're at about 8% net win margin. If we look at more mature markets around the world, it's closer to 12%. Somewhere in that range feels achievable in the U.S. Maybe it's a little lower, maybe it's a little higher, but something in that ballpark I think is achievable, and we really don't need to do much other than continue to increase that parlay mix to get there. It's not like there's a lot of other levers that need to be pulled. If you believe the parlay mix is going to go up and approach levels that look more similar to mature European markets, I think that alone will get us to the net win margin.
Great. Thank you. I guess the second frustration from investors has been the share price action in the market that you've seen across U.S. gambling. What do you think the market or the investor base is really missing here?
Well, the biggest thing, I think, is this narrative around predictions. We've only been public six years, but this was the first time I can recall. I know you heard me earlier as mentioning, we've seen situations where it's like, "I think the market's making too big a deal out of that," or, "Maybe they're not making enough of a big deal out of that." I haven't seen anything until this where I'm like, it's just completely the opposite of what we are saying internally. We're all very excited about it internally. When we see positive news supporting regulation and sustainability of the predictions industry, we cheer and our stock trades down. When negative news comes out, we are unhappy about that and our stock trades up.
It's this kind of very strange mismatch between how we're viewing it internally and how investors seem to be viewing it. Part of why we put that data out yesterday is to start to hopefully change that narrative. I think what we want to show people is that this is a big incremental TAM opportunity for us, we are going to be one of the winners in the space. I think once that starts to become something that people think, I do think that perception will change. Right now, it's being viewed as purely a threat and not enough as an opportunity for us. We're just going to have to prove that.
It's why we put the results out yesterday, because ultimately, I can say it as many times as I want, but until we actually show that we are making traction, we are gaining share, we are improving our product, we are winning with customers, people probably will be skeptical. I look forward to that. I think that's something the entire team is motivated by, and we all feel very, very confident in our roadmap there, and we feel very, very confident we will be a major player in the prediction space. Time will tell on that, but I think that's probably the biggest thing right now that's misunderstood. We've been through periods before where we've traded up and down and had a lot of volatility. It's nothing new. Obviously, it's a bit of something that you have to educate the rank-and-file employees and stuff like that on.
Most people who've been around a while have seen, back in 2021 and 2022, when we went way down because everyone thought we were never going to be profitable, and now we're making very significant cash flow every year. We just think we've had a track record every time we've been doubted of proving the doubters wrong, it's very motivating to the team when we get doubted. Obviously, to use your words, frustrating, too. I'm not going to say it's not, but we like to turn those frustrations into motivators and actually find it's harder to motivate your employees when things are going well. You have to keep people from getting complacent and everyone sort of feeling a little too good. I like having a situation like this. It creates an edge, and it gives you something to get people fired up about.
We have a very competitive culture. We hate losing. We love winning. People really feel like we have something to prove right now, and I have never seen a team as motivated as our employees are right now.
That's great. Thank you so much. I think we're done with the questions.
That feels like an excellent place to finish.
Thank you.
Thank you very much indeed, Jason.
Thank you for having me.