I like that. I think everybody knows my name is Trevor Burns. I lead investor relations at Equifax. I want to welcome everybody today to the 2025 Equifax Investor Day. Very excited to be here. We're going to have a great event. A little bit about what we're going to talk about today. We're going to talk about Equifax and the cloud. We're going to talk about EFX.AI. We're going to talk a lot about differentiated data. Great event. A lot of our leadership team is here. We're going to be up in front of you talking. A little bit of logistics about how the event is going to go. We'll have the presentations about 50% of the way through. We'll do a break, t hen we'll have the follow-up presentations. And then we will do Q&A at the end. Very excited. Turning it over to Mark Begor.
Thanks, Trevor, and welcome. It's great to have you all here, both the group in the room here at the New York Stock Exchange and those that are on virtually. It's been a couple of years since we've had an Investor Day, so we're excited to talk a lot about the new Equifax, as we call it, the post-cloud Equifax. I think you know we spent the last five-plus years doing a massive investment in our technology while still running the company. Now we're pivoting really to leveraging that investment as we drive the company forward. I'll move through these starting slides. I think you're familiar with our strategic priorities at Equifax. We've had really this stack of strategic priorities since I joined seven years ago. Strategic priorities shouldn't change every year. We've really had some consistency.
You'll hear really about these priorities throughout the day this morning. No particular order. These are all number one priorities for us as far as strategic priorities, but accelerating innovation in new products. That makes us more important to our customers. It drives more innovation. You'll hear a lot about that today. You know about our vitality index a nd it also makes you more valuable to your customers when you're bringing them new ideas. Super important. Leveraging the cloud. The tweak on this one for the last number of years, we had complete the cloud. Now at 90% complete in the United States and North America being fully complete, we're really pivoting to leveraging the cloud. A real nuance there that's super important that you're going to hear a bunch about today about the power of the cloud.
What we believe will be upwards of a decade advantage that we're going to have versus our competitors is being the only cloud-native data analytics company out there and how we're benefiting from that from both innovation in new products, but also share gains going forward. Differentiated data assets are really at the heart of Equifax. This is one that I think is often in this community, meaning the investor base, underappreciated, is the data assets Equifax has that our competitors do not. You're going to hear about that today. As you know, that's the underpinnings of new solutions and products we bring to market, the differentiated data that we have that we can bring to the marketplace. Obviously, it starts with Twin, our income and employment business. Chad will be up to talk about that.
We are now starting to take Twin, our income and employment data, and put it together with our credit data with the Twin Indicator that Joel Rickman will talk about. AI is also a big priority of ours. Harold is going to come up and talk about that. We have been investing in AI for a long time, probably a decade, accelerating in the last three, four, five years. The cloud and our differentiated data set us up to take advantage of AI capabilities. What AI should mean to you and what it means to us is the ability to bring higher-performing models, scores, and products to market. Higher performing means higher ROI to our customers. That is going to drive market share, revenue, and price as we deliver the products going forward. A big, big priority there.
Putting customers and consumers first is super important to us. It's one of our strategic priorities. It's also a value that we have with our 15,000 employees. Bolt-on M&A I'll talk about. I think you know we have a strategy of one to two points of revenue growth from bolt-on M&A. Our strategy leader here and corp dev leader, Sunil's up in the front row, so grab him on a break. He won't tell you anything about our pipeline, but he'll tell you there's a lot in there that we're looking at. We'll talk a little bit later that we're very disciplined about what we want to do on bolt-on M&A. We're not interested in doing big deals or transformational deals. We want to strengthen the core. That's when we talk about M&A, we talk about it being bolt-on. Leadership and security is super table stakes for us after what happened in 2017.
Jamil will come up and talk about tech, but also security and how we're leading in security the last five years really in our industry. That was one of our goals to be an industry leader in security and then o ne team, one Equifax. I think you know our financial metrics. A couple of years ago, we increased our long-term growth framework from 6%-8% to 7%-10%. Very deliberate on our long-term organic growth rate going forward. No change in that. Today's meeting is to reconfirm our confidence in delivering that going forward. You should hear that as we go through the day. One to two points of revenue growth from bolt-on M&A, 8%-12% overall. Fifty basis points of margin expansion is still our long-term goal.
The expected delivery, as you know, that is an increase from our old framework from 25 to 50 basis points. We have confidence in delivering that. John will take you through a kind of medium-term goal or scenario for us in 2030 that shows that 50 basis points being delivered really in a flat mortgage market without mortgage growth that we can deliver that kind of expansion, which we are excited about. As you know, back in April, a few weeks ago, we rolled out our new capital allocation plan where we talked about investing about $1 billion a year in growth CapEx. Remember, our CapEx over the last five years has been predominantly in building the cloud. Our CapEx going forward is going to be predominantly around executing growth through innovation on new products. It is really going to be more offensive CapEx. And then bolt-on M&A.
About $1 billion a year going forward, investing in Equifax to keep that high return, high margin, high capital return investment going. With our $3 billion stock buyback program and our dividend growing in line with earnings, about $1 billion a year increasing to shareholders. I think when you walk this out to John's scenario or our scenario for 2030, you see that grows substantially, meaning the cash returning to shareholders grows substantially. We're going to keep this CapEx and bolt-on M&A really in the same framework. The growth engines for Equifax, you can see our growth profile over the last number of years and our long-term growth rate of 8%-12%. As you know, we've been impacted by the mortgage market decline. That impacted our total revenue dramatically over the last three years.
About $1 billion of revenue came out of our P&L. We'll talk about that. We expect that to come back in the future as rates come down. We are confident in our ability to deliver that 7%-10% or 8%-12% long-term growth rate you see on non-mortgage. When we think about our growth engines for Equifax going forward, what's going to drive that 8%-12%, what's going to deliver that 8%-12%? One is really post-cloud leverage. I can't say enough about the fact that the last five years have been challenging to do the cloud, build the cloud, invest in the cloud, work with our customers in executing the cloud, and run the company. When we look forward, we are now fully focused on growing the company. You hope you feel that energy and enthusiasm.
It is going to show up in our results, whether it is our vitality index or our ability to grow. More data is another engine for us to continue to add data, either organically through partnerships or through M&A. Innovation and NPIs is a part of our DNA. You are going to hear that today from Cecilia, our Chief Product Officer, about how we are really continuing to double down. You may remember that we brought in Cecilia, our Chief Product Officer, ahead of our cloud completion, actually five years ago. Not to date Cecilia on that, but she has been here for a while. We are really now leveraging that. We built up and more than doubled our product team over the last five years. We really have a very strong DNA around product, which is a big deal going forward.
I talked about AI. I'm super excited about multi-data solutions, which really is taking the leverage of Twin, our income and employment data, with our credit data. And as you know, I've been trying to do that since I joined Equifax. We now can because we're in the cloud. Joel's going to come up and talk about what we call OnlyEquifax, solutions that only Equifax can deliver. Really, solutions like our Twin Indicator on mortgage, our Twin Indicator on auto that are really going to differentiate us from a share standpoint around the credit file space, which is really a big advantage for us. We have some big growth verticals that Chad will come up and talk about, our leader of EWS, government and talent. Two- $5 billion TAMs where we have $800 million in government and about $400 million in the talent space. So, big growth opportunities in those spaces.
I talked about bolt-on M&A and then, of course, the mortgage market recovery. So, we're excited about the new Equifax. You know this long-term framework, no change from what we shared a number of years ago, and we've been sharing with you over the last number of years. 7%- 10%, one to two points of M&A contribution or 8%-12% overall. You see the businesses on the left. Each business team will talk about how they're driving. In the case of EWS, 13%-15% long-term growth. USIS, 6%-8%, international 7%-9%. And underpinning that is a vitality index goal of 10%, which we've been over-delivering on in the last number of years. So, we're excited about our framework going forward.
We participate in big TAMs. We're much more than a credit bureau, which a lot of us think about Equifax as a credit reporting agency or credit bureau, but we're much more than that in some of the big verticals we participate in. The traditional credit bureau is about $17 billion is the TAM to participate in. That's kind of the TU Equifax Experian space. We think about ourselves playing in a $50 billion marketplace with big markets like government at $5 billion, talent at $5 billion. Identity and fraud is a very, very large space, which we're participating in through Count and Mitigator. We want to continue to grow in that space. Large markets to grow in that are outside of financial services.
We'll talk a little bit about the fact how we're increasingly growing faster out of FI than we are inside of FI, which really delivers a more diversified company going forward, which we're excited about. You think about some of the big share plays that we have in front of us. I already talked about the Twin Indicator on the USIS credit file. We think that's a really big opportunity for us to drive share in mortgage prequel or the shopping space in auto and in P- loans and ultimately cards also where we can add value to our credit file to drive market share gains.
NPI and innovation is a big deal for Equifax. We think we're more innovative than our competitors. We think we have the tools to do that in the data, the AI, now the cloud-native technology in order to drive that going forward. We are really excited around the larger market that we participate in. There are big market trends that benefit our space, data analytics and Equifax. One is digital. I think it is really important to understand that the digital macro is huge. All of our customers are doing all of their transactions online. Being a partner to them, in our case, a provider of data, we have to provide that always-on stability. That was one of the underpinnings of why we went cloud-native. You cannot get to nine-nines or always-on stability unless you are in the cloud. That is why we made the big investment because our customers demand it.
As you know, virtually every transaction our customers do, every credit card application, every identity transaction, every mortgage application, they go from their system to ours. They may hit multiple databases. We bring back the data that they use to complete the decision. That has to happen in nanoseconds. That speed of data transmission also is a big advantage for Equifax. We believe being digital from the cloud and really responding to that is going to drive our market share gains. We will talk a little bit about how that is driving. The other big macro is more data. I have been around the financial services space for almost thirty years. You look at the explosion of data. Twenty years ago, it was principally the credit file. Increasingly, there are more data elements being used in the decision.
We all know from your stats classes in college or MBA school that more data results in a more predictive decision. That is why we are focused on adding more data to our capabilities, whether through M&A and bringing new data assets in. I think you know we have done a bunch of that through partnerships where we are bringing data in from other partners and really expanding our data capabilities. Y ou can't do that without the cloud. Our cloud really gives us the ability to bring in more data and put it into a single data fabric. Remember, that was a big part of our investment in the cloud. Innovation and NPI, we think, is really table stakes as far as a big market trend. Our customers want more innovation. They want more new solutions. They want to drive higher approval rates at lower losses.
They want higher identity pass rates. That is our focus around innovation. You can see the growth levers that we have driving that. I have talked about the opportunity in government. There is a big macro in Washington, obviously, under the Trump administration where there is a huge focus on costs and reducing the deficit. A big play for us is improper payments. There is about $160 billion a year of social service improper payments. Our solution can help address that. As you know, we already have a big business at the federal and state level. Chad will talk about that where we can continue to grow there. Same with talent. Big business for us in supporting the data to the background screeners to make them more efficient, make them deliver their solutions more quickly. As you know, that's a fast-growing $5 billion space for us.
Our global scale, Patricio Ramon, who runs our international business, will come up and talk about how we're taking products we develop in one market and moving them around all our 27 markets around the globe. The ability to move those in our cloud environment is a real asset for Equifax being cloud-native across the globe. Obviously, a big market trend for us is, obviously, we've had to live through the mortgage market decline. Now that we're getting to the bottom, we thought we were at the bottom last year. Obviously, it stepped down further this year. That's going to come back when rates come down.
That is really an option in Equifax stock because we have been very clear whatever that mortgage market recovery is, we are not going to invest more in Equifax with it. We are going to drop it through. It ultimately will end up in dividend and buyback. That is where that recovery is going to end up. It is not going to end up in more investment in Equifax. Jamil will come up and talk more about this. We invested $3 billion over the last seven years in the Equifax Cloud. Now we are 90% complete. We still have some international platforms to finish. United States and North America, which is where 80% of our revenue is, are complete. This has been a huge undertaking and one that really consumed the team.
I hope you feel the energy of kind of post-cloud Equifax where we can now focus on innovation, growth, products, and customers now that we have the cloud completion behind us. It is really, really a big deal. You will hear about all the capabilities, whether it is always-on stability, faster data transmission. We obviously got some cost savings, which you have heard us talk about. The ability to innovate more quickly, the ability to have global products that we bring across all our markets. This is super powerful. I am a big believer to be a great data analytics company. You have to have industry-leading technology. Equifax does after the big investment. Big deal to be pivoting there. We also have, and I mentioned this earlier, scale differentiated data assets that our competitors do not have. That is the underpinning.
If you don't have the data, you really don't have a lot of weapons or a lot of tools to bring differentiated data assets to the marketplace. We all know we have the credit file. So does TU, Experian. That's one that's an underpinning of our business, particularly in FI. We're the only data analytics company that has 200+ million of telco utility trade lines in the United States. Huge additive to the credit file. We're clearly the only one with the scale of the work number. The Twin data assets that we have is super, super valuable for Equifax, particularly now as we start combining Twin with credit. And then, of course, in specialty finance with our DataX and Teletrack acquisitions. On the right-hand side, you see some real scale data assets. Many of those also differentiated versus our competitors.
We have commercial data assets from leasing trade lines, for example, that Experian and D&B do not have that differentiate us in that space. You see some of the others. Our wealth data asset called IXI is only Equifax, which is super valuable to have the wealth data of individuals down to their ZIP+4 household level. Super important to have these scale data assets, a real differentiator for Equifax. Remember, part of our big $3 billion investment was to put all these data assets together from siloed data assets into one single data fabric. That is really going to allow us to accelerate innovation, accelerate new products, accelerate those data combinations to bring those to marketplace, which is really going to drive market share and product innovation for us. Innovation has really accelerated post-cloud.
Pre-cloud, we were an innovator just like our competitors. All companies want to innovate. All companies want to bring new solutions to their customers. Pre-cloud, we had a vitality index, which, as you know, is the percent of our revenue from new products in the last three years. Pre-cloud, that was 5%. Four years ago, we set a goal to double it to 10%. That is a big goal for us. You see we have been outperforming that goal. Back in 2022 and 2023, we had a big lift in EWS from some talent and mortgage products. That ability to deliver 10% consistently is super important. I think, as you know, in our space, that next credit file, that next product that we sell, that next income and employment that we sell is very high incremental margins.
It really drives that 50 basis points of margin expansion as we're driving new solutions because we have a very high fixed cost base. That incremental revenue is very, very high calories for us. It also makes you a more important partner to your customers. You become more integrated with your customers when you're bringing new ideas to help them grow. You're a partner with them. That's why we're so focused. When you think about what are the kind of things we're doing on innovation and new products, it's more differentiated data. We talked about that. Multi-data solutions where we're combining data together, whether it's alternative data that's not in the credit file with the credit file or the idea of Twin Indicator making our credit file more valuable. Differentiated data there.
Harold will talk a bunch about how AI is really driving our performance lifts. Just more data coming in and using AI to drive that. Trend in historical data has always been a big deal. What's someone's credit score today is super valuable, or how much do they make today is super valuable. What's their trend over the last three years? Is it up, down, or sideways in their credit score or their income profile? That trend in data is super valuable. As you know, we typically sell that at a higher price because it delivers more value as a part of that product. Orchestrated solutions and multi-products. Innovation, super important to Equifax and a big part of our priority going forward.
You'll hear about our AI investments that we're making to really drive leveraging our cloud, leveraging our differentiated data to bring those new products to marketplace. A combination of AI proprietary solutions inside of Equifax. We've had over 300 patents in the last five, seven years that are really AI-driven. A real innovator around AI and explainable AI that's super important. You may have seen our press release last week where we issued 35 patents in the first half of the year. I think nine of those are AI-driven. We're continuing to invest in explainable AI to drive our competitive advantage. The cloud has really given us the AI infrastructure. We have our differentiated data assets proprietary to Equifax. You add to it the cloud capabilities and our AI investments. It allows us to deliver higher performing solutions and products.
You saw some outside if you did not get to see them this morning in the product showcase we have outside. Hopefully, you will on the break or during lunch. You see some examples here. You will see it this morning through the rest of the presenters of some of the lifts we have. It is hard, I think, in your chair to appreciate what does it mean when you see a 10.4% lift in our One Score for consumer. That is a big freaking deal. For years that I have been around financial services, you think about 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points of lift is what you are fighting for. That is a lot of ROI. When you talk about 1,000 basis points, 10.4%, huge game change in your ability to bring solutions to market.
What drives that is our differentiated data and our AI capabilities. You see a raft of examples where we're still, and I would characterize it in the early days of really driving our AI rollouts in our scores, models, and products. These are going to drive market share for us. It's going to drive product vitality index. It's also going to drive revenue. It's going to drive price because we're delivering a higher performing solution. We're super excited about AI. I've talked about both on M&A. No change in our strategy here. Just to be super clear, no transformational M&A, no big M&A. I say big with a capital B. We're going to be very deliberate about strengthening the core of Equifax. Four swim lanes that we've been very consistent on.
Number one, we want to look for scale differentiated data that really has a moat around it, meaning it's very unique. A great example is APRIS Insights. Chad will talk about that, the incarceration business we bought for $1 billion four years ago. DataX, Teletrack, PayNet. You can see some of the names on the right-hand side. Unique data assets that we can bring into the Equifax single data environment are the kind of solutions that we want. That's number one. Number two is strengthen and broaden EWS. EWS is our largest, our fastest growing, our highest margin business. We're looking for M&A to strengthen that business. We've done about half of our M&A, when you look on the right-hand side here, is really strengthening EWS. That's going to continue.
Whether it is in unique solutions like APRIS Insights with the incarceration data or some of the employer solutions that brought new capabilities around WATSI and I-9 into the employer business in EWS, that is a real priority for ours. Number three is identity and fraud. Big $19 billion TAM, fast growing. Everything is digital. We have a lot of identity assets. Our focus is on more identity data. That is what Count brought us, or Mitigator brought us. We want to do more in the identity and fraud. Number four is international platforms. This is really an example is before my time, we bought Vida in Australia, as you know. That has been a great acquisition for us. We bought 18 months ago, almost two years ago now, we bought Boavista in Brazil in order to get into a big market. Patricio will talk about that.
That's been a very successful acquisition for us. We are very strong, number two, to Serasa Experian. We look for growing in that fast-growing market. We bought the leading player in Dominican Republic. International platforms is a place we also want to buy. Very disciplined financial criteria. As I said earlier, we've got a funnel of companies we look at all the time that are attached to these strategic priorities. There are a lot of things we do not look at, actually, that our competitors do. For example, D2 C businesses. That is not a space that we want to participate in because we think it is too competitive. We want to be in places where we can have a differentiated position. We have a large funnel.
The financial criteria become what's really the differentiator is we want to buy businesses that are at or above our long-term growth rate. They have to be accretive. We're not going to buy fixer-uppers. We're looking for businesses that have strong inherent, call it double-digit growth. Second, they have to be accretive to our margins. We're not going to buy businesses that are losing money or negative EBITDA. That does not work for us. We want to buy businesses that are generating free cash flow and profits and are accretive to our margins after synergies and integrations. Also leveraging the cloud, and of course, meeting our being accretive to our long-term capital costs, being accretive there. You see what we spent about $4 billion over the last seven years.
We expect to do, over the long- term, one to two points of revenue growth from bolt-on M&A. At our roughly $6 billion of revenue this year, that's $60 million-$120 million kind of annually and growing of revenue additions. When you think about capital to do that, that's $500 million-$700 million a year in our capital allocation plan to strengthen the core of Equifax. That's really what our bolt-on M&A strategy is about, is strengthening really strong businesses going forward to continue to drive competitive advantage. A big part of our strategy. CapEx is also something we'll continue to invest in. As you know, it's coming down meaningfully as we complete the cloud. You can see the bars there. Over the long- term, we expect to be 6%-7% of our revenue from CapEx.
What is super, super important for us is the changing mix of our CapEx. Historically, it was very much pre-cloud on maintaining our legacy infrastructure. We had multiple applications. It was very costly to maintain those. There was less dollars available for product and innovation. Now, as we move forward with a new tech stack that we spent $3 billion on over the last five-plus years, our CapEx going forward is all on offense. It is all on new products. It is all on new platforms. It is new innovation. As you know, products for us are CapEx. You will hear about that today. It is really a different profile for us going forward about investing in offense. This number works out to be roughly $500 million a year. It grows as our revenue grows going forward.
Investing really around driving the flywheel of Equifax around innovation and new products. That's really where the big priority is. We think this is a competitive advantage for Equifax as our competitors are still spending time building their cloud or hybrid cloud. We now have the ability to only focus on innovation, growth, and new products going forward. You saw this chart in our April earnings where we rolled out our new capital allocation plan. I already talked about the investing in Equifax. A billion, billion to a year investing in Equifax. Very high capital returns, very high bar on what we're going to invest in in CapEx and both on M&A. Our excess free cash flow, which is going to continue to grow going forward, returning to shareholders through dividend and buyback.
We laid out a plan to grow our dividend in line with earnings going forward. You know we had a larger increase in May to really send a signal on our confidence in the future of Equifax. Going forward, we'll grow that in line with earnings. No change from what we talked about in April. Our excess free cash flow going through the buyback. As you know, as our revenue grows and our EBITDA grows, and John will take you through this in the financial section after the break, our free cash flow and our leverage grows. The ability to return cash to shareholders grows going forward. I'll repeat a couple of times that as the mortgage market recovers, that excess free cash flow will go down into returning to shareholders. It'll be a higher dividend as our earnings go up. It'll be a lot of excess free cash flow return and buyback. John will actually size that for you in the kind of a 2030 scenario of with mortgage market recovery and without, what that looks like. They're both very attractive, at least in our eyes. I think you'll feel the same way.
Here's the mortgage market recovery. I think you know the slide on the left. We've shown it for a long time. These are hard inquiries from Equifax. You see the kind of very consistent pre-COVID lift from Refis of where mortgage inquiries were and where they are now. They're down 50%. They're going to be down and no change in our guidance. John will talk about this being down 12% this year. We're still tracking to that level because rates went up, as you know, around really the tariff impacts going forward. With inflation starting to stand in control, we'll see what the Fed does this week. We would expect over time rates to come down, not to where they were, but to come down where they are today at kind of 20-year highs. That's going to be a real positive for Equifax. Again, we're going to drop this through to the bottom line. The billion two of incremental revenue is about $700 million of EBITDA incremental and about $4 a share. John's model that we have for 2030 will show that in a mortgage market recovery, that all shows up in earnings and EBITDA earnings, free cash flow, and buyback and dividend because we're not going to invest more.
We're investing the right amounts in Equifax today. We don't see a need to do more M&A. We don't see a need to do more investment in Equifax or more CapEx. We're investing the right amount. As that mortgage market comes back, we're going to return it to you. This is another element, first time we've talked about our subscription revenue. We're going to start sharing it with you more often because it's becoming a bigger part of our revenue. I think you all know the value of having subscription versus transaction revenue if there's an economic event. This is really being driven principally by EWS. Chad will talk about it. In government and talent, we're having more kind of fixed subscriptions for twelve months that then get reset in the next year. Those provide some real stability of transactions versus transactions going forward.
You see 25% of our $6 billion revenue this year is now subscription, growing 14%. That is going to keep growing much faster than the rest of Equifax. Subscription as you go out to 2030 and beyond will be a bigger piece of Equifax's revenue, which we think is a positive. Part of that is market-driven in the markets we are participating in. Part of it is how we are going to market. We think that is a good thing for our customers in order to drive adoption of our products going forward, particularly in government. We have a goal of being consumer-friendly. One of our goals is to be the most consumer-friendly credit reporting agency. This is really focused in USIS on this slide. It is a couple of new rollouts that we have had just in the last few months.
First is we rolled out a new credit report. If you've ever looked at your credit report from Equifax, it looked pretty old. It doesn't anymore. We've got a new credit report out there, reimagined. We're getting great feedback from consumers. We're getting great feedback from our customers who are using that to go to their consumers. There was some press support on it. Big investment of ours to really have a more consumer-friendly credit report that's easier to understand. The My Equifax app is one we're rolling out now. It's just in market. You'll see a demo on that. Really exciting for us to have a solution that's free for consumers to access their credit report. That's going to drive more engagement with Equifax that we're really excited about. There is a demo on Optimal Path, which is a new credit score simulator using AI.
There's a lot of simulators, I'd say, in quotes out there in different versions that are more generic in how they deliver the data to consumer. What's unique about this one is it's about your data. It will tell you which trade lines, which credit cards, which loans you need to focus on in order to improve your credit score. As you know, consumers in the U.S. have a lot of focus on improving their credit score. We're really excited about these new solutions. Check out the Optimal Path demo outside during the break. We're excited about Equifax going forward. John will share the 2030 kind of midpoint, medium-term goals that we've laid out or scenarios. You see with in 2030 growing from $6 billion this year to $9.6 billion, a 10% CAGR. That's without a mortgage market recovery.
That assumes kind of 2%-3% GDP growth, including in mortgage, and just the outperformance that we have of new products in each of the business performances you're going to hear from each of the business leaders. In the scenario of if there's mortgage market recovery, full recovery over that five-year period, instead of being $9.6 billion, there's an additional $1.2 billion of revenue that flows in there to about $10.8 billion. John will take you through the EPS on that. As you know, this year our guide is about $7.45 a share in 2030, that doubles to $15 a share. With the mortgage market recovery, that $4 a share takes you up to $19 a share. A lot of leverage in Equifax going forward post-cloud and where we're taking the company. I've already covered the growth engines.
Leadership team's here today. Hopefully you get a chance to meet them on the break and during lunch. You'll hear from about half of them during the presentation. We're excited about the team that we have here at Equifax, super energized about the future of the company and where we're taking it. When you think about what I hope you take away from today about the new Equifax is, number one, we're confident in our 8%-12% and 7%-10% organic long-term growth rate. We're reconfirming that as well as the 50 basis points of margin expansion. We've got a lot of confidence in that. Hopefully you'll feel that in the presentations you hear today. Number two is cloud is really a big differentiator. It's got to show up in our numbers.
It's got to show up in our vitality. We can feel it in the last six months that we've been kind of cloud complete in the United States and North America. The really post-cloud momentum we have with our customers, the post-cloud momentum we have internally with 100% of our focus on growth and innovation. Really excited about that opportunity. I'm super stoked about OnlyEquifax Twin Indicator. It's something I want to do, as I said earlier, since I joined Equifax, being an old customer of the credit bureaus. I know the power of combining credit, which is really a reflection of are you going to pay your bills in the future because you paid them in the past, right? That's where your credit score is. You don't know if you have the ability to pay because you don't know if you're working.
The combination of income, which is ability or capacity to pay, along with the credit score, only Equifax can deliver. The idea of adding that to the credit report to differentiate it, Joel will talk about. Super exciting. Chad's got a great discussion on EWS growth and margins, particularly in those big government TAMs and the talent TAMs. There aren't a lot of businesses that have $5 billion TAMs and verticals that in principle we're trying to convince the customers that have been doing manual verifications for decades to using our instant solution. That's really the play we have is through our innovation new products, which Chad will talk about. Talked about the $1.2 billion mortgage market recovery. That's an option in Equifax. We're going to deliver our long-term framework without a mortgage market recovery. When it comes, it is going to come to you. And it is going to come through to the bottom line.
Investing in CapEx and both on M&A to strengthen the core of Equifax. We have a very strong capital allocation plan. We are very clear about how we are going to drive that going forward. And then a team now post-cloud that can fully focus on growth customers and new products. Here is our presenters. Jamil Farsi is our Chief Technology Officer. Jamil and I joined about the same time after the cyber event in 2018. He was our Chief Security Officer for about five years. In the last not quite two years, he has been our Chief Technology Officer. Jamil is going to come up and talk about the cloud. He is a really great technologist and a really great business leader. Harold Schneider joined us two years ago. Th r ee? Okay. I'm rounding down.
I'll round up. Three years ago, our DNA leader, really a great leader. He's got a great background from Capital One and from Citi and Visa. He was a customer of the credit bureau. He understands how data is used. Now he's really turning it going forward. We're excited to have that. I already talked about Cecilia, our Chief Product Officer. A FICO background, joined us from Oracle and has really changed the game in our product team. Really made it central to our organization. Chad joined us a year ago. Your anniversary was a few weeks ago, I think. Great to have you on board. Most recently at SoFi. We're a customer of Twin, a customer of Equifax. Before that at Chase, USAA, Fifth Third, and a bunch of financial companies.
A really deep understanding of how credit and data is used in the business. Joel Rickman has been with Equifax about ten years in EWS. He's run our verification business for over five years, which is our mortgage as well as our PLON, auto, and card verification businesses. In December last year, I asked Joel to take on mortgage for both businesses. We combined the mortgage businesses. We have one go-to-market in mortgage. We also asked him to take on OnlyEquifax. We thought he was at the right intersection between EWS and USIS to drive these new products that are going to really differentiate principally our USIS business from a market share standpoint by having more value on that credit file than our competitors can offer.
Patricio Ramon is almost a 20 -year veteran of international at Equifax. A few months ago, he took over the international leadership role. He's based in London. He's been running our European business for 10 years. Okay. Longer than me. So, he's been running international for ten years. Prior to that, he was in South America. He's an Argentinian. His team's not going to make it to the World Cup probably, but we'll see. It's a very sore spot for him. He'll come up and talk about international. Everyone knows John Gamble. John will come up and talk about the financials. He's got a great section to talk about. Exciting day planned for you. Let me turn it over to Jamil and take you through our cloud transformation.
Thank you, sir. Good morning. I'm excited to be here. Thank you all for coming. I'm going to talk about the advancements that we've made in technology. I promise not to geek out too much. The reality is we have done so much over the last several years that it's extraordinarily impressive. It positions us for the future. As Mark said a minute ago, we believe that this sets us up with a good 10-year advantage. That suggests that just from our competitors moving from where they are today to meet where we are now. That does not even account for the fact that we have this, we are going to have a compounding effect from the AI work that we are building and all of the work that we are doing on that front. Let me get into it. For our transformation, we basically have three key parts that I am going to cover for you. The first one is the cloud piece itself. The second one is the single data fabric that we have built. The final one is the scaling services and AI that we've infused within this entire platform.
All right. Cloud. This is ou r core infrastructure. This is what everything is running on. Cloud native, not hybrid. It is not hopping back and forth to an on-prem environment. It is not fully on-prem, so you have to manage all the hardware and things like that. This is purely cloud native using all of the latest services there. It was really hard for us to accomplish this. This is a very big undertaking. On the first piece, look, we migrated thousands of applications over to the cloud. Did not just lift and shift. We refactored them and moved them into the cloud native services that we have.
On top of that, we decombed, and this is just in the past year, decombed eight different mainframes across U.S., Canada, Spain, U.K., a Herculean amount of effort. These things were roughly 40 years old in some cases. It is a huge undertaking, but we got it over the line. We also shut down thirty-nine different data centers. No more managing that hardware, no more having to send people driving to the data center to reset systems anymore in the middle of the night. These things are all gone. Finally, and I think this is often underappreciated, is that we brought our customers with us on this journey as well. We worked with tens of thousands of our customers to migrate them over to the cloud. Now they are seeing the benefits of all the things that we have done on that front.
As I stand here today, we have 90% of our revenue running through one unified architecture for transactional, analytic, AI workflows. It is all sitting on one cloud native platform. We have that 10% left still to go. As Mark said a minute ago, it is just some dogs and cats. We have a few of them in Asia Pacific and Latin America and w e expect those to be done in the next 12-24 months. The second piece is data fabric. A single data fabric. This is an absolutely critical component of what we are doing.
If data is our oil, then the data fabric is the refiner and the pipelines that allow us to be able to turn that data into high-quality fuel to be able to power all the rest of our systems as well as distribute them out to wherever it's needed. To do this, it was a monumental undertaking as well. We combined hundreds of different isolated data silos that were only accessible for their specific purpose at the time. We combined them all. In addition to that, we built out roughly 600 different specialized data pipelines to be able to clean and deliver those data sets to wherever they're needed. This is absolutely critical to being able to improve the speed and quality of the data that we have throughout the environment.
Finally, we built a single policy layer for all of our data, models, and lineage. It is standardized globally. At the same time, what this also allows us to do is that the way we designed this is that it gives us specific configurability on a per-region basis. For example, if you have a data residency requirement that is unique in India, or if you have data privacy rules like GDPR in Europe, we are able to account for those things, be fully regulatory compliant, while at the same time having a standardized control layer top to bottom throughout the fabric. As I stand here, we have one unified capability to be able to govern our data once, to be able to store it once, but to be able to use that data anywhere.
The final piece is our scaling services. This is the engine that drives it all. It takes that high-quality fuel that we get from the fabric, and it puts it into play to be able to create real-time intelligence for our customers. This thing is headlined by Ignite and Interconnect, as you can see. Ignite, this is our analytical sandbox that allows us to be able to build, train, and iterate on our models. Interconnect is our ultra-low-latency decisioning engine that allows us to be able to plug and play any model, any rule set into live production workflows for credit, for fraud, marketing, and so forth. On top of that, these services are supported by a constellation of a bunch of different services that help them operate as well. These things are things like Feature Store, which allows our data scientists to be able to reuse the work that they're doing.
Our Model Guard, which allows us to be able to take advantage of the latest hyperscaler foundational models that are out there. Model Registry, which allows us to be able to reuse our own best-in-class models that we've established. Our API Gateway that allows all of our customers to be able to access those services from wherever they are. The key here for all of this is that when we built these things, we built them for the future. We built them for the AI era. This is really critical because if you look at AI today, and if you talk to technology pros, or if you do any research and read any of the studies that are out there, roughly 70%-80% of the AI experiments that organizations are operating today, they fail in the pilot stage. They fail in the pilot stage.
The reason this happens is for one of three key reasons. Either first, the models themselves cannot get enough compute. The second reason is because the models cannot find enough fresh, clean data to be able to train on. T he final piece is they are unable to be able to find a place to be able to run. If you look at the ecosystem that we have established here, we have cloud, which gives us unlimited compute on demand. We have our single data fabric, which allows us to be able to clean that data and provide it wherever we need it to. We have services like Interconnect, which allow us to be able to run those things on an integrated basis top to bottom. Those models and AI in general are able to be able to maximize top to bottom throughout our organization.
What we did when we built this thing is that we skated to where the puck was going, which gives us a meaningful competitive advantage and allows us to have that compounding effect with the AI revolution that we're all in today. The results are already showing. On the stability front, Mark said this earlier. This is absolutely vital for any organization that's operating today. All of our customers are digital first. If you're not up, then they're going to be feeling the pain from it. This is a key differentiator, but it's also table stakes in this day and age. I'm happy to say that we have record stability. We consistently have been breaking our own stability records for the last several months because of the transformation that we've run. I think the best example of this is Spain.
You all probably heard about the big catastrophic power outage that occurred in Spain a couple of months ago. Right in advance of that, I think it was about three weeks before, we flipped the switch for our Spain business. We moved it to the cloud under the new infrastructure, all the stuff I've been talking about. As a result, while Spain was dealing with this catastrophe and shelter in place, for us, it was business as usual. We did not have a single minute of outage as a result of that. It was a really powerful proof point for the work that we've done on the migration. On top of that, on the other end of the spectrum, we've got peak loads.
Because of the cloud, we're able to be able to support any amount of demand on demand and because of the elastic compute that we get from our cloud provider. We didn't just muscle into this thing. We also added finesse and configurability into the system as well. For things like flex loads, the schedule of jobs that our customers are on, where they do not need something in real time, we've been able to configure it so we can take advantage of spot pricing as well. We have cost efficiencies built in on a fit-for-purpose basis depending on what the workflow and the job should be. I say all this, and we did this, but we did it in spite of roughly 50% increase in the number of changes that we've had within our environment. Now, typically, this is a yin and a yang.
The more changes you make, the more outages and incidents and stability issues that you have. We really want changes within the environment. The reason is because more changes equals more code that we're shipping, equals more features that we're releasing, which means that we are delivering more new innovative products to our customers. We have been able to achieve both, both better delivery as well as far better stability. On the speed side, this is another area where we've been shining. Our data processing is 5x faster. Our mortgage processing is 68% faster. I think the best example here is one that's 316 milliseconds, a transaction. We have a, and just for orientation, it takes you and I, the average person, roughly 300-400 milliseconds to blink an eye. You see where this is going.
We have a highly demanding customer with a very complex transaction. It comes from them, it goes over the open internet, through the Equifax front door, through our entire security stack, and then hits not one, not two, not three different models, but seven of them, and then sends it all the way back to us in 316 milliseconds. Absolutely speed of light, truly blink of the eye speed. What I think this shows is that this investment, what it's done is that it's eliminated that legacy technology tax that most organizations face today. Those manual processes, the incompatible technology, hopping from the cloud at a hybrid model, hopping from the cloud to on-prem, those things within the new Equifax, they're gone. We're operating at light speed. Finally, security. I mean, of course, none of this stuff matters if you lose customer trust.
In the wake of the breach that we had in 2017, our customers, they fundamentally demanded more. That is exactly what we did. I'm proud to say, and Mark mentioned this earlier, this is the fifth year in a row that we have exceeded all industry benchmarks in security. Like, we've done a fantastic job being able to rebuild that trust. Now we're a leader within this space. The data shows it. If you look at the average time, the industry best times for detection, they're roughly 60 minutes. We're below 60 seconds. If you look at the times for incident response, our times, the industry is 24 hours. We're below 24 minutes. A few years ago, the industry started to pick up on, hey, maybe there's cloud security risks, maybe there's supply chain risks. What do we do?
We leaned and we worked with the leading partner in cloud security, the one that just got acquired by Google recently. We worked directly with them, and we were able to expose out our own security posture to all of our customers directly so they could see what the security posture of the products and services they leverage from us were. First in the industry to do something like this. Right after that, we got a tremendous amount of interest from a lot of our customers saying, hey, you guys are doing all these great things in security. You've got all this investment. We don't have that same level here. What can you do to help us? What did we do? We released our control framework. We open sourced it.
We even put on a front end to make it really easy for our customers to be able to access it and understand what kind of insights and intelligence that we had. Again, first in the industry to do something like that. Nowadays, everyone's talking about AI threats and credential compromises. Last year, what we did is that we went and released passwordless authentication throughout the entire organization. Passwords for all of our users, they're no more. They use biometrics to be able to access any of our services, which is a huge step forward. It eliminates the AI threat because you can't fake this, while at the same time making it far easier to be able to get your work done. First in the industry to be able to do that.
You look at our differentiated data, the huge trove of differentiated data that we have. That is end-to-end encrypted top to bottom. Even more than that, if you look really to the future, like I try to do, you think about the quantum risk and the threats that potentially it breaks encryption. You know what? We've already worked with the government, with NIST, and we have those quantum proof algorithms. We've already established them, and we're working with our ecosystem partners today to be able to roll them out. We're already ready for that future state threat. The bottom line here is that we have worked incredibly hard to become a leader in this space, just as we have it on the technology side. We're not going to give that up anytime soon.
Finally, look, we made a huge investment, a huge incremental investment, $3 billion, as Mark said. We put just as much, if not far more effort, heroically, from a top-to-bottom basis throughout the business to be able to drive this transformation. Now we're seeing all of those benefits. I think what's most exciting to me is that the results from last year, arguably they're only from roughly the last six months. Like, a lot of this stuff is just happening. We are at the very, very beginning of this transformation and seeing the value of what it's being able to provide. We're built for the future. I mean, we skated to where the puck was going, and it's given us five- to 10+ year advantage over our competitors. We aren't stopping.
The others aren't cloud native. They do not have the power of our single data fabric. There is a long way to go before they can catch up. We are just going to keep plowing ahead. I think that advantage is only going to increase as AI continues to become more and more important. Harold is going to talk about that a little bit more here in a minute. We have turned the page on transformation. We are post-cloud. Now we are fully focused on leveraging this technology investment, this platform that we have put in place. It is going to give us a really strong future and competitive advantage going forward. Thank you very much. Harold is coming up next. I appreciate your time.
Good morning, everybody. Very excited to be here with you this morning. By way of introduction, I am leading data and analytics here at Equifax. Been here for three years and joined Equifax with a background of almost 25 years in financial services, working for companies like Citigroup, Capital One, Visa. I have been in the industry for a long time, know what our customers need and how our customers operate. As a data and analytics professional, being in the role that I am in here with Equifax is really a dream come true. We have really differentiated, rich data sources in all the countries that we operate in that give us a 360 degree view of consumers and companies. As Jamil just talked about, we are now operating on a modern cloud stack with endless compute, the elasticity of the cloud, real-time streaming, and the availability, the on-time availability. We are a company that has been investing in AI for more than a decade.
It is very exciting and energizing in this post-cloud position that we have put ourselves in to now combine all of these great capabilities and unleash them in the new Equifax. As you have heard from Mark and Jamil, AI is driving Equifax innovation. We just celebrated the 10-year anniversary of our first patent, an explainable AI for neural networks. We have been building on that innovation year after year, turning Equifax.ai really into a differentiator. We have more than 1,000 data and analytics resources that are driving our innovation every day using cloud-native solutions such as Google Vertex and Gemini to deliver new products to our customers faster than we have ever done before. We also have more than 1,800 staff that have, across all functions, gone through AI training.
Of these more than 1,000 data and analytics employees, more than 400 have advanced degrees, including master's and PhD degrees. They are pushing the boundaries of what is possible in data and analytics every day. They are also driving our more than 300 patents that we have been granted and that are pending in AI. Your data is only as good as your AI is only as good as the data that you are using, right? As Jamil shared earlier, with the Equifax Cloud, we have also built our data fabric that is unifying our data from more than 100 different data sources into a single virtual structure that allows us to maximize our innovation while at the same time also maintaining critical governance requirements and our regulatory requirements. Our differentiated data and our patented AI capabilities are creating a real competitive advantage.
As Mark talked about earlier, we have a portfolio of differentiated data. That portfolio comprises our traditional consumer credit file and other data sources such as our telecom and utility payment data, our Work Number, that Chad will talk about in a little bit, and our IXI wealth data. What's really important is that our Equifax.ai capabilities allow us to then easily create unique analytical insights, models, products, and our AI agents on the basis of that differentiated data portfolio. At the heart of our Equifax.ai capabilities is our Ignite analytics platform that we've been developing over the last few years. Within the Ignite analytics platform, we've created a set of state-of-the-art AI capabilities, such as, for example, our advanced model engine or AME. AME allows our data scientists to use our patented AI to build better models and also automates our governance through automated governance guardrails.
We also have machine learning ops pipelines or MLOps pipelines that allow our data scientists to easily deploy these models into our custom-built, real-time, and batch scoring platforms. We're using these AI capabilities also to power the foundation of how we integrate all of our differentiated data assets together. The Equifax Cloud and new AI techniques allow us to enhance our keying and linking or entity resolution capabilities, which leads to higher hit rates in our core data exchanges. For example, in the U.S., in our most mature data assets, our consumer credit file, we're seeing an improvement of seven basis points, which, when you apply that to more than 245 million unique identities, results in tens of thousands of additional hits. For a mature system like our Equifax consumer credit file, to get an extra seven basis points is a really meaningful lift.
We've seen even higher improvements in parts of our Twin business with almost 100 basis points. As Jamil said, we've substantially completed our cloud transformation in our North American businesses. With the Equifax Cloud, we've seen almost 300 basis points improvements in our Canadian business. As we're completing the cloud transformation in other regions like Australia and New Zealand, we're also expecting to see significant increases in keying and linking in those markets. We're constantly monitoring our progress here to make sure that we continuously improve keying and linking. We're also adding new innovations like vector databases and new AI capabilities. The bottom line is, with improved keying and linking, we can give our customers more predictive data. Our customers want to say yes more.
With the Equifax Cloud and our differentiated data, we're able to build higher-performing models to allow our customers to have higher predictiveness and to do just that, say yes more. Mark has shared a few examples with you earlier about higher-performing models, the U.S. One Score and our Australia One Score. These models are driving higher KS metrics. KS, or Kolmogorov-Smirnov, is a measure to measure the predictive power of a score. When we are delivering a higher KS, that means our customers can more effectively manage credit risk, and they can give access to credit to more consumers and customers, including thin file customers. I wanted to share a couple of additional examples with you. One is our One Score for Alternative Finance in the U.S., which provides a 250% KS improvement compared to models without AI and our alternative data.
Now, Mark said earlier, in financial services, you're typically happy when you get 1% or 2% improvement. We're delivering 250%. That helps customers, like, for example, short-term lenders, lease-to-own companies, and subprime fintechs to score more customers more accurately. This innovation extends across all of our markets. In Brazil, one of our fastest-growing markets, we are seeing a 10%+ increase in KS with our new One Score, which leverages the innovation from our Boavista acquisition and benefits almost 200 million consumers in this market. With our market-leading AI and our differentiated data, our customers can improve their performance and generate higher ROI from our Equifax solutions, which in turn helps us to strengthen our market position, gain share, and offer higher-priced solutions in the market.
To bring it all together, our cloud-native capabilities and differentiated data are turbocharging our AI capabilities, allowing us to deliver innovation in the market. As we shared previously, in the second half of 2024, 100% of our models were built using AI. This is a significant increase from where we were just two years ago. To be honest, it's ahead of our own expectations. We will continue to use AI in 100% of our models that we're building in the future. We're also measuring the percentage of new products or NPI that are leveraging AI to ensure that we're driving AI adoption across all relevant product categories beyond models. Again, we've seen that metric already double in the last two years.
We also want to ensure that we're monetizing all the new AI innovations that we're bringing to the market, like, for example, our new affordability solutions and our new fraud solutions. In order to do that, we're measuring our AI vitality index, which has seen a 3x increase already in the last two years. Really showing the great work by the team. Accelerating AI is really core to the next chapter of Equifax. We aim to help our customers win in the marketplace and thereby increase access to credit for consumers and companies. That will allow us to strengthen our market proposition, drive more share, and benefit investors and shareholders. You'll hear more about how these innovations are driving business outcomes in our USIS, EWS, and international sections. For now, I'll turn it over to our Chief Product Officer, Cecilia Mao. He'll talk more about how we're sharing, driving our product innovation. Thank you.
All right. Thank you, Harold. Harold said something. He has a dream job. I have a dream job too. I'll tell you a little bit. You're going to hear about product and product innovation throughout the day. You already heard lots of those points from Mark. I'm going to tell you a little bit of how we are doing it and why I'm so confident that we are only getting started in the innovation of products at Equifax. I've been here five years. When I first joined, Mark said, "Let's, I want more. I want more products. I want higher results. I want more vitality index." We are already accomplishing a lot of those things.
From pre-cloud to now, our vitality index has doubled, right? How are we accomplishing that? Let me start with the who, the teams, right? Product management is no longer just thinking about requirements. In the center of product innovation, we need to think about customers. I remember when I got here, and I'm the first Chief Product Officer at Equifax, I was asked, like, "What does it mean to be a product-led organization? What does that mean? Like, are we shifting from customers?" It is actually the opposite. The customers are in the center of our product innovation. It's really understanding the trends of the market. It's really understanding how we are solving the customer's problems, not just selling products, but understanding the value that we're delivering across the way. The NPI program has been around for eighteen years.
Innovation has happened for eighteen years or more at Equifax. We are really accelerating how we understand the customer's problems and how we could solve them. A lot of, like, we have doubled our product teams, more than doubled the product teams across the five years that I've been here. The talent that we have brought in are not just product managers. They are understanding of the customers. They're understanding of the verticals. They understand credit cards. They understand government. They understand the verticals that we serve. Many of them have actually sat at the seat of the customers. They were customers before. They could tell us what we could do better and how to take our innovation to the next step. You hear vitality index, NPI, a lot.
A lot of the metrics that we report internally, monthly, externally, quarterly, are metrics that are part of our not only DNA. They are part of, like, how we are compensated and the metrics that we measure our success by. Secondly, like, as I talked about, customers is center the center of where our innovation comes from, right? We are customer-centric and product-led. We keep our customers in understanding of their problems in the center of how we think about products and what we are bringing to the market. We want to make sure not only that we are delivering that product, that they are accomplishing their goals, whether it is higher performance in approval rates, better ROI, lower fraud. We understand what are their objectives as we deliver our products. Development is a team sport, right?
You talked about you heard from Jamil talking about a technology and the stack. They are partners in how we deliver those products with speed. We partner with the commercial teams that bring to us all of the, you know, new things that they're hearing from the markets, the new problems that they're hearing from our customers, and the DNA in terms of how we leverage our data assets, our AI in solving those problems. This is a cycle that is not, like, it's a team sport, and it's a very agile sport. I'm going to talk about a little bit about the speed in which we could accomplish that today. You saw a similar slide in Jamil's presentation in terms of the tech stack, the data fabric. Today, all of our data is in one data fabric. This is global, right?
We have the same data fabric platform, data platform in, you know, overseas and international as we have in the U.S. That, in combination with our ability to have our platforms, you see Ignite, Interconnect, it allows us to build the products over here and focus on, like, on building products that are verticalized for our customers. This is, like, every time that we build a product now, we do not need to reinvest in the basic building Lego blocks, right? We have the services in terms of how to construct a model, how to create an attribute, how to validate a model, how to create an orchestration layer for those are all available to us as we go to a new vertical, a new customer that wants us to solve a new product problem.
We have really created a product factory of how we create and construct and launch new products into the market, right? That has tremendous power because we work in terms of a this is the only way that I think we are allowed to say the word hybrid here because we're cloud-native. We work in the hybrid construct between products that are globalized, like under my team that we are really focusing on the Lego blocks. In each region, we have teams that are focused on the markets and their verticals and how they are constructing their products to the market with the Lego blocks. This also gives us not only speed but capital efficiency in how we are constructing our products and how we need to reinvest in customers and delivering their solutions versus the basic Lego blocks.
In the center of our transformation, when we talk about cloud transformation, we talked already about data fabric. Ignite and Interconnect are in the center of our transformation and how we innovate in new products, right? Ignite is our analytics, global analytics platform. That allows us to streamline our model development, access our data, access attribute libraries that have been developed for specific verticals, leverage the patented techniques that Harold talked about, and accelerate really the analytics to production. Building a model is one thing, but being able to deploy it quickly and see that in production working is transformative. On the cloud now we could do that in days and hours versus doing something that before cloud used to take us months, right? The other thing is that Ignite started as a platform for data scientists.
Many years ago, it was for the data scientists who really wanted to look at our data, geek out on creating a model. Now we have really expanded Ignite to be also available for the business user. Not only, like, letting the business user understand their results, understanding how their results compare to their peers in benchmarking, but also being able to have the business user simulate what is the outcome if I were to make a different decision. The power of Ignite is really not only for the data scientists, but it allows maybe various personas and roles inside of a bench to talk to each other to understand, "Hey, if I were to deploy this model, what is the result I'm going to see in my business?" Right? That's a very powerful tool.
I know that we have a showcase outside that you could take a look at. That ties analytics to decisioning. Interconnect is a global decisioning platform. Similar to Ignite, that allows us to execute the models, the scores, and into the new strategies that you want to apply. Similarly to Ignite, there are many ways that we go to market with Interconnect. We could sell Interconnect, and we do sell Interconnect as a decisioning platform that any customer can buy and reconfigure everything in Interconnect, make it a custom platform for them. More so, we are using Interconnect to construct our products. They could buy decisions out of the box. They could buy decisions from us.
They don't need to do anything but to say, "Hey, I'm trying to land a new P- loan for this demographic." To a mid-sized bank in the United States, they may not have the team that compare to a large bank in terms of activating a new decision, bringing in new models, creating new policies. We could create a policy out of the box for them, right, based on the information that we have. The power of, like, a lot of the products that you hear outside and the products that we are launching, they have Interconnect behind the scenes driving that decision, right? Then between, like, fully customizable or fully out of the box, we also have various levels of the product that allows you to do some configuration, right? Some configurations that you could change in between.
The power of these two platforms connected to our data fabric is not only to try to sell software. It's the contrary. This is what's powering our ability to launch products into the market, right? If you think about what that has given us, the results already speak for themselves. I know that you hear a lot about vitality index that has doubled since pre-cloud days. The launching of our products, we have launched consistently over the last five years, over 100 NPIs. We are way on the way of doing the same this year. We are actually aiming at 150. Let me give you three other metrics that are very important behind the scenes. One is the speech market.
We are able today to launch a product from idea, from hearing a problem from a customer to launching into the market in, on an average of 90 days. We have done that, I think, for the last two years, right? That is extremely powerful, right? Like, being able to hear a problem that our customers are having. Our customers live in the digital world. They have problems that are changing in their environment every day. For me to be able to launch a product for them in 90 days is lightning speed, right? It changes the game in terms of how they are able to satisfy their consumers. Secondly is the multi-data. You have heard already about multi-data and the value of our data. We have a lot of unique data, but our products are able to combine the data together.
That sounds maybe basic, but before cloud, it would take months of an endeavor to do that, right? It was a very difficult proposition, not only in combining the data together, keying, linking it together to a person or entity. That tremendously has increased our value of being able to produce better products. The third one is the multi-market products. We are also seeing a lot of trends globally where the problems that I'm trying to solve in the U.K. and affordability are very similar to Canada or very similar to the U.K. Our ability to not only launch a product in one market, but able to also transport it because behind the scenes, we have the same Ignite, Interconnect, data fabric, global platforms around the globe into a different region gives us even more speed and also more capital efficiency in terms of how we are reinvesting in products. Earlier you heard we're going to continue to invest in products, but through all of these three things, it's also giving us the ability to place more bets, faster bets with better capital efficiency, right? That is what gives me so much confidence that this is going to continue to help us innovate in product into the next, you know, decade.
In addition to the scale for us, the speed for us, what is most important is what are we helping our customers accomplish, right? We are seeing that focused on their outcomes, they are seeing better results. They are seeing faster time to value in us selling a product that does not take the months and months to integrate, but days and weeks, right? We are seeing that they are enjoying better products from our unique data, from our AI, and being able to have higher approval rates, saying yes to more, lower losses. We are able to better serve them in terms of their goals and their outcomes, which kind of creates a much better relationship of them seeing us not as a product provider, not as a vendor, but as a partner, right? What we want is for them to think of us anytime that they have a new challenge that they know that we could serve them better and at a faster speed.
Finally, product showcases. I think that many of you have already seen all of the product showcases out. These are only five examples of the hundreds of products that we launch every year, right? Examples of how we are tying and leveraging our cloud, Equifax AI, our unique data. Many of these products have already launched in multiple markets. Again, only five of hundreds of NPIs that we have out there. I hope that you stop by and talk to the product managers that will answer any questions you may have. Thank you. Michelle.
All right. Thank you, Cecilia. Good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be here, and I'm actually very honored to be leading Workforce Solutions on this exciting growth journey that we are on. As Mark mentioned, I joined Equifax 13 months ago, bringing a 25-year-plus career in financial servces. I actually started in financial services with McKinsey and then went on to large banks like JPMorgan Chase and Fifth Third, where I ran their consumer and business bank. I am also a veteran, and I had the opportunity to go run the $100 billion bank at USAA. Most recently, I came from SoFi, where I got this unique opportunity to start a bank, which we launched in 2022 and was the president of the SoFi Bank and also ran the lending platforms. You may say, "Why Equifax?" I asked that question about 14 months ago, and there were lots of reasons why I wanted to join Equifax. The primary one was the positive experience that I had as a customer. I really understood the value of the work number or Twin.
I really understood the power of what it could do in the business. I actually expected that in order to drive my business moving forward, whether it's mortgages or personal loans. Now, after joining and being here for one year, I couldn't be more excited about not only the current capabilities we have, but the growth opportunity we have going forward. Let's dive in. Since 2021, you can see the, I'll call it solid growth that we have, but we can obviously do much better than this. Moving forward through a balanced set of growth levers, I am very bullish that we can drive 13%-15% revenue long-term growth with 50%+ margins. I'll summarize here on the right-hand side some of the levers at a high level, and then we'll unpack them as I go through the presentation today.
Obviously, you heard Mark talk about very large operating in very big TAMs, particularly in government and talent, significant penetration opportunity we have just to replace manual alone. We have had an outstanding track record of growing records and doubling records in the last seven years alone, and we have a real long runway for growth to continue to do that moving forward. We are engaging, and particularly for me coming from the customer side, we are engaging with customers more than we ever have before. With that increased voice of customer, we're driving product innovation. We have a strong performance track record in product innovation, but I almost wanted Cecilia to yell out an amen during parts of your presentation because I also want to join Cecilia to take that to the next level.
Finally, we're going to continue to deliver a value-based pricing capability that's more balanced than maybe what we've seen in the past. We're going to utilize, and we are utilizing, new structures to do a win-win type of scenario with our customers. Stepping back super high level, I just wanted to kind of share kind of a high-level strategic approach about how I think about the business. Obviously, it all starts with the purpose, which is to help people live their financial best. You know, Workforce Solutions is kind of leaning into that by delivering people data that power the moments that matter the most, whether it's accessing government benefits, buying a new home or car, securing a new job, or staying safe in the community.
We are delivering that by delivering customer-centric, seamless, innovative solutions across key markets, across our five verticals that drive quality outcomes. Of course, all of that sits on the foundation of Total Verify, which is a set of differentiated data powered by the cloud. Let's talk about the TAMs. You know this extremely well. We have a huge TAM to operate within, $15 billion. We are just getting started here, particularly with government talent being our two $5 billion, but two, one and a half, one and a half huge TAMs for us to move into. I have a lot of confidence that we can continue to drive penetration into these TAMs.
If I just take government as an example, you all know, just in the last, you know, four or five years alone, we have 4x our penetration going from $200 million to $800 million, and we have so much more room for growth. I think Mark talked about it. You know, the biggest competition we have is manual and convincing our customers, convincing people like myself in the past that says we can do it better for you. We can drive efficiency and effectiveness by leveraging Twin to improve your overall product. As you know, we also have a great diverse set of businesses you can see on the left, and we are really laser-focused to even increase that diversity in two ways. One, in vertical diversity by generating faster growth outside of financial services.
Since 2021, we've increased the revenue mix that comes from non-financial institutions from 50% to 70%. We're also driving it through revenue diversity. We are continually trying to strategically shift the mix of our revenue from transaction-based revenue, so think price times quantity, to subscription or committed revenue contracts. Obviously, this benefits Equifax, creates a lot more revenue certainty for us and certainty for you. Why I'm excited is also great for our customers. We hear it all the time, particularly in the state government sector, where they want predictability, right? They have appropriated budgets they want to stay within. A subscription-based pricing model that creates certainty for them is a really big win for our customer as well.
As evidence of this momentum, just in the last, call it 90 days or so, we have had one federal contract and three state contracts move to subscription, and we have a huge pipeline for that going into 2026. In talent, our committed revenue has also increased significantly. Since 2022, the percentage of overall revenue that is committed in talent has increased 4x. You guys are also very familiar with our dual-sided business model, which is driving extremely strong growth for us. It is a very unique model powered by a large and growing supply side that you see on the left and a large and growing demand side that you are seeing there on the right. At the center in the power is our Total Verify Data Hub leveraging the Equifax Cloud.
You guys know this, the supply side, 751 million records, 4.4 million employer contributors, great growth in our records, and we'll talk about the strong runway we have to continue to grow that. You know, really want to call out, and Mark said it, this APRIS acquisition that we did in 2021 built the 770 million incarceration and court records that we have, delivering unparalleled 92% U.S. coverage of 2,800 jail systems and 2,200 courts. I'll talk about an NPI that that acquisition and that capability has really helped us to enable. On the demand side, huge volume. In 2024, we did 500 million total Twin inquiries through web integrated and batch capabilities.
You know, when I think about this model and I was thinking about joining Equifax and I saw this in an investor presentation, to me, the way I describe it and what I'm most excited about is really the flywheel effect that is created here, the increasing and reinforcing value it creates not only for contributors on the left and verifiers on the right, but also for employers and the millions of people who benefit from this every day as they expect compliant, fast verifications as they're getting that car loan or they're getting that mortgage. No doubt the cornerstone of Workforce Solutions is Twin. It truly is the gold standard providing speed, accuracy, and productivity for our customers.
Whether you're a government case worker or you're a mortgage processor or you're a background screener, Twin no doubt offers the fastest and most frictionless experience in the market today, all while delivering a peace of mind of an FCRA-governed process with industry-leading security. You know, again, reflecting on my time as a customer, I counted on Twin to enable the value proposition I was trying to deliver to my customers. In personal loans, it's just one example. We harnessed Twin to increase the speed and the accuracy in the underwriting process when we wanted to give approval. That actually helped us increase our pull-through rates. It also enabled us to accelerate the actual loan funding. In many times through Twin and that speed, we were able to deliver funds to the customer in less than 24 hours.
This delivered on what I talked about earlier, which is the moment that matters. And as a customer, this allowed me to increase customer satisfaction and loyalty, which drove business for me even more. You know, records growth, we've, you know, no doubt delivered very strong, consistent, sustained record growth, doubling again over the last seven years alone. We'll continue to drive this. You can see on the right-hand side, three levers. We're going to continue to invest in a dedicated data acquisition team whose primary role every day is to wake up and identify, acquire, and onboard new records. That team reports directly to me. That's how important it is. Expanding upon a network of more than 60 partnerships, massive growth, 15 new partnerships last year. We've got a huge pipeline to continue to grow traditional records.
Then leveraging our employer services business, we want to continue to build upon the 13,000 direct contributors we have today by delivering them and delivering to HR professionals what they expect, which is a compelling value proposition to decrease costs, increase speed, and deliver a compliant verification process for their employees. Needless to say, we have a long runway for growth in records. As we evaluate this long runway, I want to kind of share kind of a framework to how at least we think about it, right? Let's ground ourselves in this market opportunity. On the left, you can see total earners in the United States, 250 million, broken into four categories. Category one is traditional income. Think about that as a traditional W-2 type of employee. The second category is this non-traditional income segment.
I'm going to talk a lot more about that, but think about that as gig, 1099, huge growing segment. Pension is pretty straightforward, and then non-working income. That's things like maybe they have just investment income or government benefits. Those are the four categories. Kind of that is a backdrop. Against that, you can see, and you're really well aware of these numbers, the work number has 191 million records, which represents 138 million unique people. As we do that as a backdrop, and you think about where our growth's come, if you go on the right-hand side, there's no doubt we're going to continue to drive strength in our position in the traditional income. We're going to do that through that data acquisition team that I talked about.
We're going to do it through direct employers, and we're going to do it through not only the partners we have today, but increase the number of partners we have. On pension, we'll continue to make great progress here. If you just look at what we've done in the last two years, we've doubled the number of pension records in the last two years. Again, we have a super strong pipeline as we continue to grow. The most significant growth opportunity is in that non-traditional income. If you haven't heard, the non-traditional income segment is the fastest growing segment. It's actually growing 3x faster than the traditional earner segment, and it's added 35 million independent workers over the last four years alone.
Yesterday, you may have seen the press release, and if you haven't, and you saw it in the product showcase, we're excited to introduce Complete Income. This is going to play a huge role in helping us grow in the government sector, which I'll talk about here in a second. In this context, I also want to introduce a new metric. We call it just current, which is reflected in that third bar. As you think about active records, active records reflects how employees report to us directly. They can report active records, they can report inactive records, and so that is the record category we get directly from them. As I think about current records, current records is defined as those records that have gotten paid in the last 35 days.
The difference between active and current, there's a number of reasons that drive the difference there, but the biggest one is staffing agencies. A lot of times staffing agencies will have and report to us active employees, but they may not have had an assignment in the last 35 days and earned income as an example, so they may not be current. Or someone is out on leave but not getting paid is another great example. A third example is seasonal workers. Many times, very large, for example, transportation companies have someone who is active, but they're not current because they're maybe not in a season right now. We think that current records is another great KPI, and we're going to start reporting that to you guys on a regular basis.
I think it's another great indicator of the massive growth that we have opportunity to go from 99 million people with current income against the 250 million Americans. Let's talk about innovation. Again, an amen against Cecilia on talking about NPI and product and being product-led. I agree 100%, you know, that's all around the customer. We've got a great history here. You can see we've tripled our vitality index from pre-cloud days of 4%-5% to about 13%-14% now, well above the 10% goal that has been established. As Mark talked about in 2022 and 2023, we had a nice spike out of our total talent select all product as well as mortgage 36. I think we can even do better than this.
We want to build upon that strong position by focusing on the four things that you can see on the right-hand side. First is elevating our overall product management capabilities, right? Coming most recently from FinTech, I really got an up close and personal view around what great product management looks like in a technology company. We have increased the stature of product within workforce organization. We now have vice president level product leaders directly reporting to the general managers who run this business. We are recruiting new external talent from the outside who can accelerate our product roadmaps and bring in those pipelines and accelerate those new ideas. We are installing world-class product management capabilities that are integrated into our daily operating routines. We are also expanding voice to customer, increasing the number of channels that we can get access to that customer.
Whether it's customer surveys or customer advisory boards or offsite round tables, I personally attend the majority of those round tables and customer advisory groups because I personally want to hear directly from the customer. Number three, we're harnessing these customer insights to really drive co-innovation. I think the biggest example of that is recently a co-innovation initiative we have on with one of the top 10 largest employers in the United States who's trying to tackle the retention problem. Using Twin data and using some shared data analytics, we're helping co-innovate some capabilities that can tackle that really high-cost problem for HR professionals. Again, finally, we're doing all this while we continue to leverage our differentiated data solutions, including valuable assets like trended data. Let's talk about our verticals. I know you all came here to talk about government.
It's something we're super excited about, the $5 billion TAM. To me, as I reflect on government, I just really start with our value prop. We have a very, very compelling value prop. At the highest level, the way we like to talk about it is Equifax can deliver differentiated data that enables social service agencies to distribute the right benefits to the right people at the right time. There are two, you know, really fundamental ways we drive economic value for government agencies. One is program integrity, and one is operational efficiency. When I think about program integrity perspective, I think about mitigating that, what Mark talked about, $162 billion of improper payments, of which like 85% of that is overpayments, not underpayments. I'm going to unpack that here in a second. We also have a proven track record driving operational efficiency.
In the context of operational efficiency, I think about a state agency has basically two choices. One is they can hire and scale case workers who can conduct manual reviews, which is increased labor costs, by the way, in a very high turnover job family that can also be very error prone. Or they can simply connect into Twin, order a Twin report, and get immediate access to high quality, up-to-date, and accurate data. We did a side-by-side analysis around hiring case workers and doing it with a time-in-motion study relative to the cost of Twin and pulling in and getting it near instantaneously. Twin actually is 57% cheaper from an operational efficiency perspective. That is not even including the benefit that you can get by having more accurate decisions and mitigating overpayments.
We'll continue to penetrate here using our established footprint across both federal, state, and local agencies. We're going to continue to expand revenue growth. Think about increased frequency of usage, things like more frequent redeterminations or new variable use cases, as well as new federal exchanges like the EITC, Earned Income Tax Credit program, or the Do Not Pay portal. I'll talk more about that in a second as well. We have a strong focus in D.C., $162 billion of improper payments as reported by the GAO independently for fiscal year 2024. That's across 16 different agencies and 68 programs. A lot of discussion, hugely visible topic in Washington. The Trump administration is wildly focused on efficiency.
That is why Mark and I, as well as other leaders on the leadership team and our government relations team, are in D.C. every couple of weeks meeting with Congress, meeting with agencies, because frankly, we have got a great story to tell. Our value proposition is undeniable around how we can help tackle this problem. As you know, right now, President Trump and Congress are actively working through a lot of potential legislation, a lot of potential policy proposals that are in the works. You can see those on the right. I want to just take a second to bring to light and bring some color to some of the policy changes being considered and how Twin can add tremendous value and help drive the growth for our government vertical. Number one, look under Medicaid.
They're more likely than not going to be an introduction of what they're calling community engagement or work requirements for certain able-bodied adults. Matter of fact, late breaking last night at 5:00 P.M., the Finance Committee and Senator Crapo announced some Medicaid provisions that the Senate's going to put forward that really lays out three or four things that go right into Twin. Number one, they said that there's going to be a requirement for 80 hours of work prior to someone even applying for and getting benefits for Medicaid. Once they get the benefits, they're talking about a requirement of like maybe 20 hours a week. Again, able-bodied adults would need to work 20 hours a week up to the age of 64.
Three, they talk specifically about how the state agencies need to use reliable data to verify that these hours are being worked, which fits right into Twin. We are the only person at scale that actually calculates and actually reports out on hours worked on a weekly basis. We think this is a huge opportunity. Oh, by the way, they also said they were going to set aside $100 million to be able to fund the data required to verify this program. Super exciting there. SNAP, you know, a lot of discussions right now on policy changes on federal funding to error rates. It's a big focus. Error rates, as we know, in SNAP cause a lot of overpayments. We also know error rates are all over the board across the states. It's publicly available information.
Some are in the low single digits, some are deep into the double digits. No doubt Twin data can help reduce those error rates because if this policy or this change goes into effect, higher error rate states are going to be required to pay more into the cost of SNAP benefits, which can be extremely expensive for a state and will be there to help them with Twin to mitigate that. Again, frequency redetermination is another great example. Normally, there is about one redetermination a year, but we did a data study on those populations that are requesting benefits. They have huge volatility in their income. Matter of fact, 21% of those who are seeking government benefits within a one-year period see a spike of monthly income north of 40%. That is kind of validation why.
Say a year, I think it is a month.
Oh, yeah, within a month. Yeah, yeah. It's a year, but it's a week. Okay, within a month. Yeah. I think that's another good example of why more frequent determinations are required. Okay, let's get into state. We talked a lot about federal, but at the end of the day, a lot of these programs are really administered at the state level. On the left-hand side, you can see 90 million unique recipients, and you can see it broken down by program. A lot of recipients may participate in multiple programs like Medicaid and SNAP as an example. On the right, several things that we're doing to drive penetration at the state level.
One is we've got an experienced team of account executives that are deployed locally in state capitals working with agency leaders and policymakers to further penetrate up to 250 different programs across the United States. We also have a very talented team of government relations professionals working alongside consultants and lobbyists with policymakers, making sure they understand the value of Twin. The other thing they're doing is ensuring that the appropriations process has the dollars there to be able to spend on these critical programs and capabilities like Twin. I'll jump down. The other thing we're focused on is product innovation. No surprise. That's a consistent theme today and a consistent theme for Workforce Solutions. You know, we're really building collaborative partnerships with state agencies.
We want to listen to what their needs are, understand what the capabilities that they're looking for from the applicant to the case worker to the administrator, and helping build out those capabilities. Again, really excited. An outcome of that is our Complete Income solution that we announced yesterday. If you haven't been at the product showcase, I encourage you to go do that. Quick high-level summary here. Again, it starts with that non-traditional earner, right? If you look at gig, it's been published that 15% of gig workers receive some sort of government income, and that gig workers are two times more likely to be on SNAP. Government agencies need a solution for this non-traditional income. In steps Complete Income.
Leveraging the current workflow that we already have for the work number integrated together, the Complete Income will deliver an automated income verification to case workers. Process is pretty simple. Left-hand side, that is actually a screenshot of our VIP porter today. It is the same workflow that they do today for Twin. They click through that, they place an order, and then the inquiry comes in and hits Twin first. Then it waterfalls if there is additional data that is needed from the case worker, then it will waterfall into this consumer provision process that you can see in the middle. Super easy for the applicant.
They can simply log on with their mobile device, complete a request to connect their bank accounts, and all of a sudden, step three to the right, we deliver an integrated output containing both the Twin record as well as the incremental non-traditional, making the case worker's life extremely, extremely simple. What the feedback we're getting from states is they love that we can just do it in one process. They need both. They do not want to go swivel chair and do two processes. They can deliver all through Equifax. Let's talk about talent solutions. Another big opportunity, $5 billion TAM. As you guys know, this business delivers data solutions that support hundreds of background screeners and millions of new hires every year. Multiple products here, verification of employment being the main one, but also criminal and education.
Huge growth here, multilevel strategy that you can see on the right. First of all, driving verification of employment penetration through increased employer usage. Today we have about 400 background screeners we do business with. There are other background screeners we do not do business with that we want to earn their relationship and continue to expand from a breadth perspective. The big opportunity is on the depth. Of that 400, about1/3 or so have primary relationships with Equifax. We want to earn the business of the other two-thirds and make them a primary partner with us as well. The second one there, and the one I got a lot of questions about earlier is, you know, we implement a new pricing construct that encourages adoption of additional products. Think about it in a very simple way.
The more products you do with us, the more revenue you commit to doing with us, the better pricing that we'll give you. We've gotten extremely positive feedback from the background screeners around that shift in our pricing strategy. Third, through partnerships with background screeners, we're also going to bring new products to market. Let me just give you a few examples. One is employer services. We have world-class employer services, so we think we can increase the penetration of onboarding products like [I-9] by white labeling them and offering distribution through background screeners, which also increases their revenue as well, which is what good partners do. Second, as we mentioned earlier, non-traditional workers are the fastest growing segment. Partnering with background screeners to see what is the bundle of solutions that we need for this type of employee in the workforce.
Lastly, leveraging our incarceration network, we launched a new product called SmartScreen that I'll discuss here on the next slide. Today, about at least 90%+ of all background checks have some level of criminal-related search. The pain point of that for our customers is that these criminal-related searches can be very difficult. Number one, they can be very manual. In certain jurisdictions, you literally have to physically go to the courthouse to get the data that you need. In many ways, these records do not even have the PII you need to match it to the candidate. Second, it can be really costly. Again, in certain jurisdictions, you could be paying upwards of $90 just to get access to these records. Finally, it is time-consuming. Manual work of all these steps that I just talked about could take up to two weeks.
Meanwhile, you've got an employer who wants to get that person onboarded into work, and it's taking a long time. The solution is SmartScreen. With SmartScreen, we'll deliver an FCRA-governed consumer report leveraging an expansive U.S. network of 200 incarceration records, again, on the foundation of the acquisition we did with APRIS. You know, kind of at the highest level, basically what we'll do is we'll run this SmartScreen check. We'll make it really easy and fast to clear a candidate. If we're able to find, using Social Security number, we're able to find and determine that that applicant doesn't have any incarceration records in our systems, we can deliver a consumer report. If we do find some type of record, we'll return a more research as needed, which, by the way, we have a product to help them clear that as well.
We're getting a lot of traction recently in the market, both directly from some large employers as well as background screeners. It'll be yet another product in our arsenal to drive revenue growth. The next vertical is employer services. This is the first business at Workforce Solutions. You may have heard it called TOX in the past. Delivers compliance solutions to HR professionals, so everything from onboarding, so things like I-9 and WATSI, which is the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, to active employment, things like Affordable Care Act compliance, to offboarding like unemployment claims. Four levers here that we're focused on. Number one is to amplify and scale our People HQ platform. This is our new one-stop shop integrated platform to all products within employer services. Pretty excited about that. Some additional enhancements that we're building onto it.
We're going to start to scale that to our enterprise customers later this summer and into the fourth quarter. Second, we're also leveraging those same payroll and HCM partnerships we already have today with Twin, and we're looking for opportunities to drive distribution of employer service products. We've actually had a couple of our customers we're getting real traction with and have a lot of conversations going on. We think that's an incredible distribution engine for us, leveraging a current relationship we already have. Accelerated adoption of I-9 Anywhere. Again, product innovation is going to be at the core. That's also in employer services. I'm going to talk about that in a second. Obviously, at the core, we'll continue to expand records through these direct relationships. Let's talk about I-9 Anywhere. You've probably heard us talk about this in the past.
On the left-hand side, what you can see here is our I-9 Anywhere product, where we leverage a network of over 2,000 completer stations where people can physically go and get the completion of their I-9 with 94% U.S. coverage. It's been a game changer for us and a real strategic advantage. We were not done there. We wanted to step that up and we wanted to innovate that product, which is in the middle, which is the ability now to do virtual completion. In three simple steps, a new hire can basically go on, complete their Form I-9 Section 1 from their smartphone, update information step two of like driver's license or a passport, and then join a five-minute phone call with a highly trained specialist who can complete the process. The interesting thing about this is you see we did 100,000 transactions in 2024.
We just launched this, I think it was in February of 2024. In the first year, 100,000. As you expect, this naturally to be for like remote workers. There is no doubt we have gotten a good uptick for those who want to do it for remote workers where they may not have an HR person who can be that completer. What we are actually finding is that we are getting a lot of traction, even in home offices, even in national retailers, because the employee experience is so good, they want to expand this to all their employees. You can see here our current forecast is to triple the number of transactions through I-9 Anywhere.
The final business here we will talk about is mortgage and housing. Obviously, you guys know this business well. Mark talked a lot about it at the beginning. $1.5 billion TAM providing verifications, fully connected into all the major mortgage loan origination systems. Three primary strategies here. We're going to continue to expand our existing connected capabilities to support lender workflows, make it easier, a better experience, and increase the usage. Second, we're designing and building new product offerings, with a particular focus on growing and getting more verifications at the beginning of the mortgage origination process. An example I'd give you is something we're looking at, possibly Q4 launching, is kind of a VOI Monitor. Basically, they get VOI at the early part of the process, and then we will alert them if there's any change in employment or income throughout the mortgage process. Third, and probably what we're most excited about, is obviously differentiated offerings across USIS and in EWS, and Joel will talk about that more in a second.
I'll kind of end where I started. You know, I've really been fortunate to work with a lot of great companies, a lot of great organizations, no doubt about it. But Workforce Solutions is truly a special business. In my one year here, I got a much better appreciation on the inside around the capabilities that we can really do. I was impressed as a customer. Now I'm even more impressed by the capabilities that in the future that I see us moving to. I think we have the opportunity to harness all of these solutions. There's multiple growth levers that I talked about across all of our businesses today. You can see here a huge TAM. I'm very bullish around the record growth opportunity that we can continue to move into, the non-traditional opportunity we have to tap into those record opportunities as well.
Obviously, product innovation and really driving product innovation and staying very close to our customers, collaborating with our customers, getting the best ideas from our customers and working together. Super excited, very honored to be able to lead such a great organization and looking forward to it. Thank you all. We are going to take a very short break. Do what you need to do. Also, a reminder, we have the product showcase. If you had an opportunity, please stop by.
Get started. Chad, if you want to sneak out, go ahead. He got trapped up here. I hope you enjoyed the morning. We're going to the second half of the presentation. I'm going to be up here on the USIS presentation. I think you saw a couple of weeks ago Todd Horvath decided to leave Equifax. It's unfortunate. We're going to miss him. We're doing a search, and I'm the acting leader of USIS. Great opportunity for me to get closer to that team for a while until we fill the job. We're looking at what you would expect us to look for is a leader that looks like Chad or Patricio or even Todd, someone who's a growth leader or a commercial leader, and someone who's going to take the business forward. We expect to fill the job in the next couple of months. USIS long-term growth rate is 6%-8%. Did you know that's where we want to take the business? Obviously, they've been through the mortgage impact over the last three years. If you look at their non-mortgage growth, it was at the low end of that range during the cloud transformation.
You saw strong results in the first quarter and in the fourth quarter, actually, from USIS. We expect them to really move into that 6%-8% range going forward now that they got the cloud complete. That cloud transformation was a huge project for the whole company, as you heard from myself and Jamil earlier, but particularly for USIS. It was really our most complex technology transformation because we're so integrated with our customers. The good news is that's behind us, and we're able to really focus on growth. Some of the growth drivers are really post-cloud. We expect to get some share gains. I'll talk about that in USIS. We'll talk about Twin Indicator. Joel will really cover that. The NPI and Vitality Index moving to our 10% goal.
USIS has been lagging that for the last couple of years as they were completing their cloud transformation. We have some businesses in there that are really growing at the high end or above the 6%-8% range that we are really excited about, which I will talk about in this slide. USIS participates in about a $19 billion TAM, principally because the identity and fraud is so large. As a reminder, we have a D2 C business where we sell paid credit monitoring. That is a business that is over $100 million that has been growing double-digit for the last couple of years. That is a really good business inside of this space. We have an identity and fraud business really through the account mitigator space that is growing in a double-digit market.
We expect that to outgrow at the high end of that 6%-8% range going forward. We also have a very attractive commercial SMB business where we compete with Experian and D&B. As you know, TU does not have a commercial data business. That is when we have invested in really some new capabilities in our commercial business. You may remember we made the PayNet acquisition where we bought leasing trade lines that only Equifax has that really advantages us for small business. Of course, we combine our consumer data with our small business commercial data because many small businesses are financed off the back of both their commercial trade lines, meaning bank loans and credit cards, but also the entrepreneur or owner is using their consumer trade lines.
When you look on the right side, you see a number of businesses like our D2 C business, our identity and fraud business, our commercial SMB business that we expect to grow at the high end or above that 6%-8% range. Our mortgage business, really because of pass-through pricing from FICO, as well as some of our new innovation, and we think our Twin Indicator is going to benefit that business in the pre-qual shopping area, which Joel will talk about, should be with a mortgage market recovery in particular, but also just from the pure macros in that business should be growing at the high end of 6%-8%. Our core businesses in FI will grow at the lower end of that 6%-8% going forward.
We're really excited for that business to now be fully focused on innovation, growth, and new products as the cloud is complete. We see some real energy in that business. You saw this slide earlier. It really is a big deal for USIS to be in the cloud and really be able to focus on innovation and growth going forward. All those benefits you see in that large box that are benefiting all the Equifax businesses are front and center for USIS with their customers. You've heard us talk before that we expect, and I'll talk about it in a minute, share gains from our cloud investment because we're always on faster data transmission. You'll hear some vignettes or anecdotes from some of our customers around how the cloud is really differentiating Equifax as USIS versus our traditional competitors in TU and Experian.
We talked about it a couple of times, and the real data advantage in the United States is in USIS. Twin, obviously, Chad took you through the really strong position he has in his multiple marketplaces and verticals. USIS is the business that really has the most differentiated data, even when you add Twin in there. We talked about it a couple of times, whether it is our NC Plus data or alternative data from DataX and Teletrack, our wealth data from IXI, and all the other data that we have. You can see that listed here. That allows us to bring these new products and solutions to market that you heard from Harold and Cecilia.
You see some of them out in the product showcases on the breaks that are really differentiated solutions that we do not think our competitors can bring to market because they do not have the underlying data. Super important attribute for us. Innovation and NPIs are finally ramping up at USIS. It has been a couple of years where that cloud transformation took all the bandwidth from the team. You can see the ramp really from 2023 to 2024, getting to 9% vitality. This year, bumping into that 10%, which is really a big milestone for us going forward. Most of the actual product showcases are in USIS you are seeing out in the foyer area, which we are really excited about. Hopefully, you had a chance to look at those.
A couple of others that we're really excited about, and there's a long list in USIS with that 10% vitality expected for 2025, is a Telco Velocity Indicator. It's just another fraud prevention tool that takes the combination of our Equifax USIS data with our account data to bring a solution around identity and fraud that's super valuable in the telco space. It really gets hit when consumers come in to buy a phone or buy a plan, actually. They don't buy the phone. They've, in essence, financed the phone with their new telco plan. There's a ton of fraud there, and we're able to help prevent that. Another one that you'll hear more from Equifax around is real-time alerts.
We have the ability now to deliver alerts to our customers in an hour or so after the transaction takes place, meaning a requested inquiry or an identity and fraud inquiry. That speed of responsiveness really makes our solutions more valuable because they are more current. Instead of waiting a day or two days for an alert to be issued, we now have the ability with the cloud to issue it almost instantly. That is going to be a real differentiator, and we are going to be rolling out a lot more solutions there in USIS and in international to really take advantage of that. Here is just a flavor of some of the feedback we are getting in the short couple of months since we have been completed with the cloud.
You've heard John and I talk really for the last couple of years about our expectation and what we were hearing from customers about how important the cloud is to them about being always on. Jamil talked about that blink of an eye of really coming through our data set, grabbing those data elements and bringing back that product or solution. The speed of the data transmission, our differentiated data. Top five card issuer, 50% improvement in response time from Equifax. That's super important to them because they don't want to lose customers in their workflow when there's a latency in that workflow. Really positive for Equifax that we think those kinds of improvements are going to drive share and new products for us. Top three financial institutions moved Equifax online due to data in the cloud, access to our higher performing solutions.
A leading personal finance company in the United States, 43% response time and improvement across their 100 million members. So we're more valuable to them. We're going to get more market share. A top three regional bank seein g a 21% approval in bank card approvals and a major utility company, a 10% increase in approval rates. These are all the things that we were betting on were going to happen with our big cloud investment, and USIS is a big beneficiary in that. So you've heard that this morning, and you'll continue to hear about that from us going forward. Let me turn it over to Joel now, who's going to come up and talk about our U.S. mortgage business and also our OnlyEquifax solution. Joel.
Great. Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everybody. My name is Joel Rickman. I'm responsible for our combined EWS and USIS mortgage business. I'm also responsible for our EWS verification services business. Combined, that's about $1.5 billion in annual revenue for Equifax. Today, I'm going to focus a good portion of my time on what Mark's referred to as the program to drive what his vision was when he joined the company seven years ago, and something that we've been talking about for three or four years. That is, we know that we have the differentiated data assets. We have unique offerings and solution sets that if we can bring those together across the BUs, we can truly differentiate. We have named this program OnlyEquifax. As you've heard from both Chad and Mark and Harold and Jamil today, we have a lot of data out there. We have a lot of unique data assets.
Only bringing those together do you get the power of that. That is what OnlyEquifax is all about. We have gotten to the point where we've made it through the cloud transformation to where now we're utilizing the cloud. We're getting the benefits of the cloud and the advanced custom data fabric that we have and the key and the linking to where we can see a customer across all of our data assets, have a fuller view, and understand the benefits. Doing this allows us to have a differentiated approach to the market and put us ahead of the competition. As the leader of the combined U.S. mortgage business, my top priority is working with our clients to understand innovative new things that we can offer to them.
The challenges in the mortgage market are literally evolving day by day, and they have to struggle with a low market, trying to reduce their cost, but get a better view of the customer and pull that customer from application through approval. To help benefit that, we've built the OnlyEquifax program on getting directly with our customers and mapping out each step of their process. Many of these processes are 300 or 400 steps in regards to taking an application and starting to analyze it. We're taking that process flow. We're working with customers to understand where the pain points are and where they're trying to reduce cost or improve pull-through, and we're working to provide innovative custom solutions to those customers.
As you think about the lending process and going a little bit out of mortgage and more into general lending, traditionally, it has been based on a credit report and a credit score. That is a great view into history. It is a great view of the consumer and predicting that future payment, but there is so much more to an applicant. With what we have to offer at Equifax, we can provide a much fuller vision. Two customers can have the same credit score, but look very different. They may have a different number of trade lines between credit reports, still having a similar score, but they also have a much different ability to pay and a much different financial resiliency. Let us think about two customers that might have a 726 credit score, and I am going to talk about one specifically here. It is a fictional customer, Thomas.
He has a 726 credit score, and there may be another applicant that has a very similar score. What we can tell you about Thomas, because of what we have at Equifax, is that he not only has a good solid credit history, but he has a $123,000 annual income. He's been employed for four years. That tenure signifies an amount of stability in his financial history. We know that he has a net worth of $622,000 from our IXI database, and we know that he has a strong payment history of making timely payments on his utility, telco, and pay TV. Additionally, because of our Account 360 solution, we're actually able to identify that that device that Thomas is using to log into the application is his device. He's used it for other financial transactions in the past. It's, again, verifying his identity.
We know that he owns a small business. In addition to his W-2 income that he's getting from ACME Incorporated, we know that he also has a small business generating additional income and financial resiliency. Lastly, we know from our DataX acquisition and the data that's involved in there, we understand that he doesn't have any payday loans or any alternative finance loans, nor does he have any inquiries. Another sign of resiliency. If Thomas was to go and apply for a credit card today, he would get approved just on the 726 score. Most organizations would do that, but they would see him as a singular transaction. If they don't get into the depth of understanding what Thomas is from a full financial picture, they may shorten what they offer to him and limit that relationship.
Now I want to talk a little bit about how this data comes to life. This is a real example. We've changed some names, changed a few numbers, but this is a real example of an experience where a consumer, we're going to call her Natalie. Natalie is a recent graduate. She has a great job. She's been working for about a year, making an extremely strong income, a little over $120,000 a year. Natalie wants to buy a house. The challenge is Natalie is a thin file. By definition, that means she has less than four trade lines. Natalie, two of those trade lines are actually co-signed credit cards with her parents. Natalie realizes she needs to go get additional credit. She needs to build that credit history and goes to apply to get a credit card at a large bank. They pull the credit report.
That credit report shows two trade lines and a very strong credit score because of the card she shares with her parents. Unfortunately, they decline her immediately because of the thin file status. Undeterred, Natalie moves on and says, "I'm going to apply for another credit card," and she goes to a different bank. This bank gets that same credit report, sees the same two trade lines, sees the same strong credit score. Differently, they look at it and say, "We're intrigued by this," and they go and pull the work number. When they pulled the work number, they realized that Natalie's income is verified. She is more than capable to make the payments. Because she's a thin file, she has very few liabilities already. What they do is they go ahead and approve her for $10,000 on a credit card while her thumbs are still on the phone doing the application. After she accepts that $10,000 credit card, they do not stop because they realize that Natalie, being a young professional with a very strong income, who has set the desire to build her credit history, they ask her about her deposits. They ask her about her savings account, both of which they incentivize her to move to the bank.
In a matter of 10 minutes, where one bank declined Natalie based on just a credit report and a credit score, the other bank, using more of the data available from Equifax, using the power of The Work Number, established a relationship with Natalie, getting three trade lines, three products with her, and positioning themselves to be the financial partner for her future endeavors. You can see the difference that this has not only for the lender, our customer, but more importantly, the consumer, how we're empowering it right out onto Main Street. Our ability to deliver The Work Number alongside the credit report is differentiated. What that does is it allows us to help organizations plan their underwriting process. It allows them to know data is available to streamline and automate what they're doing.
With that in mind, you've heard about two initial offerings that we've put out. One is in the mortgage space, and one is in the auto space. What is beautiful about this is by the time when someone pulls a pre-qual credit report, in the mortgage space, the world's changed a little bit. Where it used to be very heavy refi, it's now very heavy purchase. What that means is in the purchase market, it's a much longer sales process and a significantly higher fallout. If you talk to lenders during the heavy refinance days, they may have turned one in two applicants into a closed loan. In today's world, they're closing one in four, one in five. They're seeing 75%-80% fallout from that pre-qual initial engagement to those turning into a loan. That's lost time, energy, and money.
With the Twin Indicator, we're helping them control where they spend that money. 90% of all the investment of making a mortgage today is labor. By knowing that the Twin data is available, lenders can save money from investing that labor early in the process, knowing that the Twin record's available. As they move a consumer into the underwriting process and actually get them to a point that they're going to convert that loan, they know that the Twin record is available. What's even better is we're providing some additional information with that Twin record to give them insight as to how long that person's been employed and what their annualized income is. Two critical pieces of information that early in the process allows you to automate your workflow for generating that loan.
Now, not only are we including the Twin Indicator, but we also are including data elements of positive attributes from our utility and telco database. If you're a thin file or a lower score, we're including data elements to show that you've got additional trade lines in regards to, in the view of a utility or a telco, and that you're making those payments. That information is coming along with the credit report as well as the Twin Indicator at no additional cost. We believe that is differentiating our credit report and putting us at the front of the waterfall with clients moving forward. The other industry where we're focused on is in the auto space. The auto space is changing. Where it used to be people came on the lot, picked a car, and hoped to get financed, now often people are engaging auto dealers through the web.
When they do, auto dealers are asking for a little bit of information so that they can pull a credit report and so that they can check for viability of getting that deal done. By including the Twin Indicator upfront, we help auto dealers with one of their biggest challenges, which is clearing stipulations. Clearing stipulations means they have to provide proof of income and employment to close that loan with a lender. They now know that that data is instantly available, and they can process that in a digital fashion without additional friction in the equation. One other benefit they get is because of the great work that our technology teams have done with our keying and linking in the data fabric is we've already started to match these data sets and know that that applicant matches across multiple data sets at Equifax.
We're helping reduce their application fraud, which if you look in the market, you'll see as much as one in seven, one in eight applicants in the auto space has fraud related to it. We're helping them reduce that. As you can see, I'm excited. We're doing a lot of things. We're moving things forward as an OnlyEquifax program. This is really the first couple of steps, getting the indicator out there, helping lenders understand the data's available, helping lenders have the opportunity to automate their processes and their workflows. We see a whole lot more opportunity. Just like the example with Natalie, which is actually working with clients today, we're going to lean in on card and personal loans in the second half of the year and get the indicator included in products there.
We're going to use the overall data assets of Equifax to enhance our business verification process, our undisclosed debt monitoring, and our portfolio and risk management solutions. Additionally, we're going to be enhancing our consumer engagement suite. As you've heard by a number of the speakers today, we're going all in with AI, and we're powering the most data-rich, AI-driven process automation platform, our Decision Strategy Index. It's an exciting time to be at Equifax. We've made it past the cloud. We have the opportunity now to take the combined assets in a single data fabric, keyed and linked together to deliver greater value to our customers and differentiate our products so that we are selected first. What really excites me the most about this is with everything that we've got going on, we're just scratching the surface, and we're really just getting started. With that, I want to introduce the birthday boy of the day, Patricio.
Good morning, everyone. It's true. It's my birthday. It's a special day for me. Thank you, Joe. I'm President for International. As Mark mentioned before, I'm 19 years in the company. I had the opportunity to work in markets like Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru. I moved to Europe. I've been running Spain, the Iberia operation, and for the last 10 years, I have been leading the U.K. operations and Europe. Very, very proud to have the possibility to lead this organization in International and to be here today presented to you. Equifax Cloud is transforming our business in International, and we are leveraging our custom data fabric, EFX.AI, and global platforms like Interconnect and Ignite to accelerate the growth across the markets that we operate. Here we are.
We came into this year with 7% CAGR in line with our long-term framework. We truly are the new Equifax. We are accelerating the growth. We are harnessing the power of the cloud. At the same time, we are creating bigger scales across International. Our top priority is to keep accelerating that growth in International. Using cloud and data fabric in order to bring those global platforms and products across all the markets that we operate. Let me give you a quick overview of our presence in the International markets. We are in 23 markets, four equal regions, starting with Latin America, now with Equifax Boavista, Equifax Brazil, that, as you know, we acquired in 2023. We have operations in Canada, operations in Asia-Pacific, and operations in Europe. Related to the lines of business that we have in International, we maintain a diversified lines of business in International.
We have consumer credit, commercial credit, debt management, front-end ID solutions, and direct-to-consumer. Each of the regions has different types of specializations of these lines of business. We are learning from each other, and we are exporting knowledge from each other. For example, Australia has a deep knowledge on commercial credit. They have been helping us in order to develop portfolio management applications that we export to the U.K. or Canada or KYB solutions. U.K. led on affordability solutions as well, based in terms of the open data regulation. We have been transferring that knowledge as well into other regions. At the same time, now with these capabilities, we are leveraging in terms with our customers that are multi-regions.
Very recently in Spain, for example, we have been partnering with huge insurance companies, helping through Interconnect in order to integrate different databases and different types of insights for the underwriting process. Then we extend that to their own operations in Brazil in a much bigger scale. A U.S. bank that expanded solutions presence in the U.K. We have been partnering with them, and we have been chosen as a partner for everything, credit analytics, customer management, and debt services as well. Very powerful, not only in terms of the technology, but the solutions that we can go to give to our customers in multi-region. Related to the data, Mark mentioned in terms of the importance of the data. What very differentiates Equifax is the differentiated data assets that we have.
Same in International, we can combine consumer and commercial credit, wealth data, front-end ID data, transactional data, collection data. When you integrate all in data fabric and the power of using this in order to create unique insights, that is something that only Equifax can do. Very, very powerful. Some other examples, for example, in Brazil, we have an application fraud that calls Conduto. Essentially, we have billions of e-commerce transactions, 4 million known frauds. Despite that, it is a leading capability in that market. We are using that data in order to integrate into the credit risk portfolio. In the U.K., we have billions of transactional data. That is helping us in order to create solutions on ID, solutions on customer management, even solutions for collections as well.
If we leverage the deployment of data fabric, it's helping us in order to accelerate the way to ingest data. The faster you ingest data, the faster we can flow that data into new products. Cecilia mentioned before, 90 days from the ideation to the go-to-market in real time. It is very impressive, the differentiation that we are presenting to the market. Other type of capabilities is key and linking. For example, in a U.K. market, we don't have a national ID. A capability like key and linking, in order to have a single key, 360-degree view of consumers and customers, that is very differentiated and very powerful in the market. Related to innovation, because of fabric, because of AI, we have the opportunity now to accelerate the way that we move innovation from one geography to another.
Cecilia also mentioned in terms of how we are growing in terms of that percentage of the multi-region products. Pre-cloud, 30%, now 44%, and we expect to continue growing. On vitality index, you saw before, single digits in pre-cloud and double digits and sustainable post-cloud. Some good examples you saw in the product roadshow in terms of the One Score. We launched One Score also in Australia. 8% KS difference. That is impressive differentiation versus the previous score, a score that was performing extraordinarily well in the market. Essentially, we take now, we are taking now that One Score into our Latin American region, and we deployed two months ago into the Brazilian market. LATAM, we have a capability called Ignite Marketplace that essentially is giving to our customers the possibility to better visualize the data and the insights that we are providing to them.
They're using focus on marketing applications, so customer management applications, prospecting, benchmarking. Now we are moving forward in order to install that capability into the Brazilian market as well. The last one that I want to share with you, one that touched me personally, the product that we're launching in Canada. When I arrived back in 2011 to Spain to be the new Managing Director of Iberia, I went to have a new mobile in Madrid, and I couldn't even get a contract because I didn't have a credit history. Quite bizarre momentum being a very proud Managing Director without a mobile phone. We are launching global credit report. Equifax Canada expects to receive 500,000 immigrants in 2025.
We started in Canada, and we are adding capabilities in terms of data for other regions that is especially focused at the beginning with the immigrants that are coming to Canada, but then we are going to continue expanding with new data sources. There are a lot of examples in the real world how we are taking advantage of the investment that we have been producing with cloud. Equifax Brazil, Boavista, with Equifax Cloud has been much simpler, the integration. It is a fantastic opportunity with cloud, how we can maximize the value of the acquisitions that we are doing. As Mark mentioned, we are a strong number two, Experian the leader, but we have a tremendous opportunity in order to win market share in that market. When we acquired Boavista, they have good credit reports, fraud applications, and good level of analytics, but they did not have global platforms.
We have been working with them in order to install Interconnect, install Ignite, and at the same time, with the power of fabric, accelerating the way now that they put alternative data in order to create better analytics. That combined in parallel with the revamp of the go-to-market that we have been implementing in Brazil, very comparable to the go-to-market now that we have in other territories, is paying off. We have been growing double digits growth in the last two quarters. That means that we're winning market share from our main competitor. I know that market very, very well. The opportunity of growth is tremendous. We are going to put a lot of focus and investment in that country.
To finish, I will say that the new Equifax, along with the Equifax Cloud, EFX.AI, and our data fabric, will continue us enabled to create specific solutions for international customers, more powerful, more secure, more faster than ever in each of the geographies that we operate. We will only gain momentum as we continue to push ahead. Nineteen years in the company, I'm still smiling. I'm still very energized, and I'm energized more than ever for the future of International. Thank you so much, and I will hand over to John Gamble.
Thanks, Patricio. That was great. The discussion of Brazil is really an outstanding example of how with transform cloud systems and our new capabilities, we can integrate and grow at the same time. It is the way we intend to drive growth through acquisitions faster as we continue to go forward and why we think it enables us to be a more effective acquirer because of the transformation we have completed. You heard a lot from the team today about the growth we are driving from the new Equifax Cloud, from EFX.AI, from differentiated proprietary data. I am going to show you how our long-term financial framework translates into revenue growth, EBITDA margin expansion, EPS, and free cash flow expansion, and critically, free cash flow expansion to drive increasing return to shareholders. We will start quickly with a couple of slides on 2025, and then we will jump into a 2030 scenario view. This is very consistent with our, this is exactly consistent, sorry, with the guidance we provided in April.
As you can see, excluding mortgage and hiring headwinds, our 2025 revenue would be well within our long-term framework of 7%-10% organic growth. Our talent markets are down single digits in the first quarter, and we guided them down upper single digits in our guidance. Mortgage market as measured by USIS inquiries are down 12% in guidance. Those two factors are what is keeping our organic growth to be below our 7%-10% framework. Total non-mortgage, even in that circumstance, is up about 6%, and mortgage revenue is also up about 6%. 2025 is a milestone year for Equifax as our cash flow is really accelerating and as we reached our balance sheet targets with leverage at 2.5x EBITDA. EBITDA is growing substantially despite the revenue growth headwinds that I just talked about.
As I said, we would be delivering within our long-term financial framework without those headwinds. Legacy system DCOMs coupled with very good cloud cost management and outstanding cost controls are supporting our EBITDA dollar growth. We expect to generate approaching $900 million in free cash flow in 2025, up 11% with expanding EBITDA margins and CapEx declining. Our cash flow conversion is going to approach our 95% target. This is a very strong performance as we look to start returning cash to shareholders as we announced back in April. Since 2019, non-mortgage revenue is up $2 billion. We think that is very important for people to understand the level of growth we have driven consistently in non-mortgage over the past six years. Growth is driven by $1 billion from government, up 4x , and talent up 6x in the period. New markets outside of our traditional credit markets.
Drivers of other non-mortgage growth have principally been in consumer lending and employer services and EWS, ID and fraud and commercial and USIS. We have seen very good growth in international, as Patricio indicated, operating within their long-term framework. All of this was delivered before completing cloud transformation, which should only accelerate our capabilities as we go forward. Mark showed you before our long-term growth framework, and as he talked about, we are reconfirming our long-term growth framework and our ability to deliver it. Our long-term growth framework did not change. As I said, in any given year, based on market conditions, we may perform above or below the long-term framework, and this is our view of how we will perform on average over periods.
Now, it's important to know our long-term framework assumes the markets that we serve grow on average 2%-3% per year, and that includes the mortgage market. Achieving our long-term financial framework in revenue and EBITDA margin growth does not require that the mortgage market recovers above this 2%-3% per year. Mortgage market growth above that 2%-3% per year obviously would deliver substantial upside. As we talked about consistently, that would flow through to EBITDA and adjusted EPS at our very high gross margin rates. We do not have to reinvest in additional costs below gross profit in order to deliver that level of revenue. This slide provides perspective on mortgage in a 2030 scenario that we'll discuss, assuming we deliver our long-term financial framework on the left.
Again, on the left with no mortgage market recovery, and then on the right, assuming a mortgage market recovery. Specifically, the slide on the left is the 2030 scenario based on our long-term financial framework. We'll deliver on average over the five-year period revenue growth of 8.5% organically. M&A will deliver 150 basis points, so total growth of 10% a year. We'll grow our EBITDA margins 50 basis points a year and deliver on average 95% cash conversion. This assumes the mortgage market does not recover. It grows with the economy 2% a year. On the right-hand side of the slide, it's basically the same scenario, but we have assumed that we have a mortgage market recovery. We think we've assumed a very conservative view of what a mortgage market recovery would look like.
We're effectively using the $1.2 billion of incremental revenue that we've talked to you about starting in February and April. That doesn't assume substantial changes in price, records, penetration, and product. It basically assumes what we have today, right? Your own perspective on how you think price may change in the mortgage market or as we drive more record growth would obviously take the $1.2 billion of incremental mortgage revenue that I'm showing on the right-hand side of the slide higher. We like to remind people who talked about in April, even though we're in a very depressed mortgage market, down over 50% on a volume basis from what we were seeing between 2015 and 2019, we're still building an inventory of mortgages in the market at relatively high rates, north of 5%, some north of 7%.
Every year, we grow 4 million-5 million more mortgages in that high inventory level. As we look forward over the next five years, we will be building substantial inventory of mortgages that are available to refinance at an even higher rate, as you would expect, as we will start to see the purchase market start to recover. Sorry. Okay. The left side of the slide provides a 2030 view of our total revenue at the midpoint of our long-term financial framework, again, with no mortgage market recovery. Equifax will deliver about $9.6 billion worth of revenue, up 60% from 2025. Again, that is 8.5% organic revenue growth on average driven by new products, proprietary data, penetration, and price, and 1.5% from acquisitions.
The right-hand side of the slide indicates that in a 2030 scenario with a mortgage market recovery and recovering back to average 2015 to 2019 levels, we'll deliver an additional $1.2 billion in revenue or $10.8 billion in revenue, a 12.5% CAGR from our 2025 levels. You'll also see further improvement, as we'll talk about in a minute, in EBITDA margins and dollars and adjusted EPS because, again, we'll allow that $700+ million of EBITDA to flow through to net income and adjusted EPS. In our long-term framework, EBITDA margins grow, as we said, 50 basis points a year. They're driven by high margin revenue growth with this very strong vitality index, very good fixed cost leverage, and again, driving cloud efficiency. EWS, consistently delivering margins over 50% or above, will drive higher Equifax margins as they continue to outgrow the rest of the portfolio.
USIS has begun to see accelerating margin growth in 2025 from fixed cost leverage, and they are improving non-mortgage revenue growth as they have completed their cloud transformation. International has also delivered consistent margin improvements from both revenue growth and cost benefits from cloud transformation, which should accelerate as they complete their cloud transformation over the next several years. In 2030, with a mortgage market recovery, EBITDA margins increased to 37% from the 35% we talked about in the non-mortgage market recovery scenario, and they will actually be slightly above 37%, again, driven by the fact that that $700+ million of EBITDA of gross profit that is generated by $1 billion to $2 billion of incremental mortgage revenue flows through to EBITDA, EBITDA margins, and adjusted EPS.
In the 2030 scenario, again, with no mortgage market recovery, the blue bar on this slide, as you can see, will grow to $15 a share in adjusted EPS. Again, that's driven by the high margin growth of revenue that we're delivering over the time period, margin expansion to 35%. And that's CAGR of over 14%, almost 15%, nicely within our long-term financial framework. Again, to the extent the mortgage market recovers, we'll see EPS increase to $19 a share, which is 21% growth on a CAGR basis from 2025. Benefiting both the 2030 scenario with and without a mortgage market recovery are obviously the benefit we're starting to get from share repurchases that we started this year that will become accretive, the entire program as we get into late year three and into year four.
We are getting a benefit from a decline in the rate of growth of depreciation and amortization. As we are bringing down our CapEx over the next several years as a percentage of revenue, the rate of growth of depreciation and amortization will actually decline to the point where it is below the level of growth of our revenue. It is actually driving our margins higher. As we just talked about and as Mark talked about, CapEx over the 2025 to 2030 period should decline to about 6.5% of revenue. It has declined nicely in 2025 from 2024 as we complete cloud transformation to about 8% of revenue.
To the extent we see a mortgage market recovery, we should decline even further because, again, the level of improvement we're seeing in revenue driven by just higher mortgage volumes, we don't need to invest any incremental CapEx in Equifax to deliver those volumes. We'll be able to hold our CapEx at the levels we're talking about in the 2030 scenario on the blue bar that's one from the left, and we'll be able to drive our CapEx as a percent of revenue down to 6% of revenue. Again, we think that puts us in a very strong position to drive incremental cash flow. Now, our accelerating free cash flow and our very strong cash flow and our balance sheet at 2.5x leverage are providing very significant cash for M&A and return to shareholders.
As we complete the cloud transformation and CapEx continues to come down, we expect to deliver free cash flow conversion at about 95%+ of net income. In the 2030 scenario with no recovery, free cash flow reaches $1.6 billion, so very strong growth from what we're seeing in 2025. In 2026, as you see in the middle block of this chart, as we get into 2030, but in 2026, debt capacity expands with EBITDA because in 2030, with no mortgage market recovery, we'll deliver $850 million in debt capacity. The fact that we're now at 2.5 x leverage means as EBITDA continues to grow, we can borrow more, and we can invest that in the company and also invest that in share repurchases. In 2030, with no recovery, free cash flow and leverage generate about $2.5 billion in cash.
With a mortgage market recovery, we generate an additional $1 billion in cash, and we'd aim that additional $1 billion in cash at share repurchases. As Mark discussed, our capital allocation framework is designed to invest in Equifax and deliver significant cash to shareholders both at the same time. In our 2030 scenario, with no mortgage market recovery, we would have $3 billion for investment in acquisitions, investment in the company, and for return to shareholders. Based on our long-term financial framework, we expect to invest about $1.5 billion in Equifax in this 2030 scenario. We'd have over $1.5 billion left to return to shareholders, $425 million in dividends, and about $1 billion in share repurchases.
In the 2030 scenario, with a mortgage market recovery shown in the bar on the far right, we would have about $4 billion for investment and return to shareholders. The additional billion dollars, as I just said, would be targeted at repurchases, and that would increase share repurchases to over $2 billion in the 2030 scenario. This slide just provides a summary of what we just talked about. It is a summarized comparison of 2025 and our 2030 scenario with no mortgage market recovery, as well as the 2030 scenario with a mortgage market recovery back to the 2015 to 2019 levels. As shown in the center bar, Equifax would deliver outstanding results at our long-term financial framework in the 2030 scenario without a mortgage market recovery.
As shown on the right-hand bar, in the 2030 scenario with a mortgage market recovery, revenue reaches almost $11 billion, adjusted EPS almost $19 a share, and cash for shareholders and M&A about $3.5 billion. To wrap up, Equifax is expected to deliver a very strong performance in 2025 despite challenging mortgage and hiring markets. We're reiterating our long-term financial framework of 8%-12% revenue growth with 50 basis points of margin expansion and cash conversion of 95%+ . We do not need a mortgage market recovery to deliver at our long-term financial framework. We can deliver a long-term financial framework with overall economic growth of 2%-3%, including the U.S. mortgage market only growing at 2%-3%.
We have significant upside to the extent the mortgage market recovers, and the $1.2 billion or more revenue that would be generated by a mortgage market recovery flows through the Equifax P&L. We have tremendous momentum from the Equifax Cloud, EFX.AI, proprietary data, and penetration globally in credit and ID and fraud and government and talent. We think this is going to drive tremendous new products and share gains across Equifax. Again, we're generating substantial free cash flow and debt leverage, investing to drive future growth while returning substantial cash to shareholders. With that, I'll turn it back over to Mark.
Thanks, John. Thanks, John. Hopefully you're as energized as we are about the new Equifax. I'll wrap up with a few slides, and then we'll get to some Q&A that might be on your mind that we didn't cover this morning. This is one of the slides I started with. Our strategic framework is clear. We've had a fairly consistent approach to how we're running the company over the last 5+ years, and it's all focused on delivering that long-term framework that we reconfirmed today of 7% -10% organic, 1-2 points of revenue growth from bolt-on M&A, 8%-12% total, and 50 basis points of margin expansion. John showed you how powerful that model is in a post-cloud world of generating returns not only for Equifax, but our shareholders. Big TAM, you heard in a number of businesses today, particularly EWS, big opportunities to grow in big markets that we think will be very beneficial to Equifax. Obviously, the cloud investment is principally behind us. It's a big pivot point.
It's hard to articulate, I think, for investors how much effort went into the last five years, but then how unleashing it is for all of us to be able to pivot to leveraging the cloud versus building over the last five years. It's really a new Equifax in our eyes, and the next chapter of Equifax is really focused on growth going forward. We have scaled differentiated data assets, which is really the underpinning of who we are. It allows us to deliver on, optimize our AI, deliver new products, and drive the company going forward. I hope you got a sense of how embedded new products are across Equifax. It's part of our DNA. Super important if you're a customer and you have one of your partners coming in with new ideas every few weeks, that's a better partner. That's who we want to be.
We want to be in there helping our customers grow, and I think you got a sense of that. John laid out the very powerful capital allocation model we have to invest in Equifax to keep the company growing at that long-term growth rate and then also returning sizable amounts that grow substantially of free cash flow to you going forward. The charts John had, you see what our 2030 scenarios look like. We wanted to lay out a medium-term focus and really reinforce that we do not need a mortgage market recovery to deliver our long-term framework, and the mortgage market recovery is really going to end up in your pockets through dividend and buyback going forward. I went through the growth engines that we have across Equifax. Super excited about the new Equifax. We are confident in our long-term framework.
We're confident and excited about pivoting to leveraging the cloud. Our new OnlyEquifax solutions combining USIS and EWS in the United States, we think are super powerful for driving principally USIS benefit and market share gains and revenue going forward. EWS is an exciting business. You know that, we know that. It's one that we're putting a lot of resources in, a lot of investment in, a lot of technology and product into and really continue to drive that growth. There aren't many businesses out there that have $15 billion TAMs in a $2.5 billion business. A long runway for growth, a long runway for record growth. We're super excited there. We've been crystal clear about the mortgage market recovery. When it comes, we're going to return it to shareholders. Really clear about that. That's how we're running the company. It's how you expect us to.
CapEx is really an important change for Equifax. Most of our CapEx the last five to seven years was investing in the cloud. Now we're going to invest in innovation and growth. We're going to have more offense at how we can invest in future to really support that long-term growth rate. Talked about the return of cash to shareholders, and you got a team here that's super energized. If I could ask John and Chad and Jamil to come up, we'll take some questions. We're going to have some mics in the room, which we'll start with. Trevor and Molly are going to go around with the mics. Just raise your hands and we'll take questions. If you're online, there's a question button you can hit to ask a question. T hat Trevor's got an iPad that he's going to navigate while he's running around the microphone. We'll see how that goes. We look forward to questions about what's on your mind after our presentations this morning.
Thanks. Hey, Marnus Bitnag with Barclays. Mark, just one question for you and then one for John. You talked a lot about the government opportunity and a lot of the time you're spending in D.C. Just curious if you could just address, are there any lingering risks on the DOT side or other kind of, we've heard a lot about the FHFA, just if you're spending time with that on the D.C. side as well. John, for you, just the 37% margin target with the mortgage recovery. I know it was four years ago and there's a lot of different bases, but you could just help us why 37 versus your prior aspiration of 39, I think, was the last time around.
Yeah. First on the government, I think you got a sense from Chad and myself and both in the meeting and maybe on the breaks that we're super energized around the current administration's focused on $160 billion of improper payments. Between Chad and myself and some of the other business leaders at Equifax, we're in D.C. every couple of weeks. We're meeting with the agency heads, whether it's CMS, IRS, OMB, Department of Education, Department of Labor, all the different agencies around how our solution can help benefit. We view government as a real tailwind for us going forward over the next four years that is really going to benefit the EWS business. You saw the tweets. I did not tweet, but Director Poultry put a tweet out when I met with him a couple of weeks ago. He actually put a tweet out before I met, then I met with him, and he put another tweet out after I met with him. I put a LinkedIn post out complimenting him on the meeting. That is an area where we are spending time around what are they going to do around scores between FICO and Vantage and then also the 2B, 3B, which we spent a lot of time really reinforcing the value of a 3B poll because of the additional data that comes. There are 10 million consumers in the U.S. that are only on one credit file.
There's 40 million consumers that have significant score differences. Washington for us now in the next four years, or call it three and a half now, I guess, we think is going to be a positive for us with regards to EWS, and that's why we're spending so much time there. As Chad pointed out, most of the lift in the TAM is going to be at the states. We're adding more resources and more people to really focus on the state opportunity and the government growth going forward. John, I'll let you take the margin one.
Sure. The easy one. In terms of margins, I mean, I think the thing we want to focus people on, right, is the 50 basis points a year we're driving in the long-term framework, even without a mortgage market recovery. We think that's outstanding performance, right? W e expect to continue to deliver that as we work over the next five years and quite honestly, as we look beyond that. As Mark said and I said, whatever the mortgage market recovery delivers will flow through. The scenario I put forth at $1 billion- $2 billion of opportunity would deliver 200-250 basis points of incremental margin opportunity, right? If you happen to believe that the mortgage market recovery could be higher, if you think if you want to include pricing or some other view in terms of what you think the mortgage market might look like, again, that will flow through as well, right? I think what we are talking about is very consistent with what we have talked about for a long time. We can deliver that 50 basis points a year, and then the incremental benefit that we will get from mortgage will just flow through. I think that's what you're showing.
Maybe reinforcing what John said, Manav, is that the billion, too, we froze in time as of today, and then we rolled it forward to 2030 without any growth in it. We didn't put any pricing in that. We didn't put any new products in that. We didn't put any records in that. We thought that was a simpler expression because it's a big number. I think if you did your own math on some compounding on that over that five-year period, that's obviously going to be more revenue, more incremental margin that would flow through and drive our margins higher.
When you reported guidance, or when you reported in April, you said you would have raised guidance, but for a more uncertain macro. When you say that guidance is exactly consistent today, does it continue to maintain that conservative posture, or is it that given what's gone on in hiring markets or mortgage markets since then, you say that was just prudence at the time and that conservatism's been enough? For a second question, on the subscription shift within Twin, help us understand the net effects in terms of the revenue benefit and volume benefit to Equifax and the offset on like-for-like price. Thanks.
Yeah. On the, I don't know which one you want to take. Why don't you go first and I'll take the one you don't? Maybe I'll hit the subscription one first. We're really approaching subscription much like we're approaching the Twin Indicator to try to drive share. We see a big opportunity to drive adoption when you think about Twin. Chad talked about this. When you've got a customer that's in a manual mode, helping them kind of bridge the gap from a budget standpoint, from an implementation standpoint, if we can provide a fixed, in essence, transaction dollar amount for a period of time, it helps them get into the mode of driving it into their operations. Very similar to how we're approaching Twin, we view this as an opportunity of driving incremental revenue with that next subscription contract principally. We're doing some on defense, but principally on offense to drive manual to new customers of Equifax. I think the Twin Indicator is really quite similar.
In terms of 2025 guidance, I think as we get through this quarter and we're talking to you in July about our performance in the second quarter and how we see the rest of the year, we will talk a lot more about guidance then, right? We decided in this conversation to really focus on the 2030 scenario and the long-term view we have around 2020-2030, and not so much focus on 2025 guidance. We will do that as we get into July.
I would add, Jeff, that I think in this environment, it's still prudent to be conservative, right? There's enough uncertainty with what's going on in Washington. I think President Trump went up to Canada thinking they were going to cut some trade deals. He had to leave early because of the Israeli conflict and did not cut those trade deals. The market's down today and rates are up a little bit. I think that uncertainty is one where we're going to continue to be balanced and prudent in our guidance going forward. We'll give you an update in a couple of weeks when we report second quarter results. I would say that we haven't seen anything different in how our businesses are operating from when we gave the guidance in April for the second quarter, if that's helpful, which we kind of said we're confirming our guidance.
I just add on the subscription side, given our margin profile, we're seeing at least two different use cases. One, which we're getting new revenue and new contracts with new organizations that we would not have gotten without a subscription. That's something that's attractive to them now. They're leaning in and engaging with us. We're also seeing incremental growth. We have, for example, a state agency that does $10 million on a current contract at a P times Q type of structure. They know they can lean a lot more into Q. We're seeing a kind of a value creation there that says we can lean in and give you subscription. They can drive a lot more Q, which is what they want, at a better value and drive incrementally more revenue for us that we would not have gotten before at a very high margin profile.
It's the right approach when you've got a huge TAM and you're really converting manual to our automated solution. That next dollar of revenue we get, that next customer we get is huge incremental margins, right, because of the business. That's why we're trying to be very thoughtful about the long- term. We're trying to grow this business over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years by building out that penetration into the TAM.
Hey, Mark. It's Andrew Steinerman, JP Morgan. I'm going to ask kind of a blunt question. The USIS growth, 6%-8% is the projection. We could say that was unchanged since we got 6%-8% in 2021, but as you know, 6% -8% did not happen 2021 through 2024.
We did have a little bit of a mortgage market dislocation in that quarter.
Tha t's what I was going to ask you. Do you attribute that all to the mortgage market?
Yep . No, no, actually I don't. I was going to have you finish your question.
You attributed that all to the mortgage market, and how do we have more confidence in 6%-8% for USIS for the next three to five years?
Yeah. I do not attribute it all to the mortgage market. Clearly, the mortgage market had a big impact on EWS and USIS with that huge mortgage market decline. That is the $1 billion or $2 billion to kind of recovery upside that we have. There is no question USIS was meaningfully impacted by the cloud transformation really over the last couple of years. There is no question it had a big impact. It was harder than we thought. It was more time with customers. I have talked with many of you that our customer conversations went to focusing on the cloud transformation for a long period of time. A single customer could be a year between we start the transformation discussion until it is actually completed.
That customer conversation, there was not new product conversations happening in that time frame. We lost a lot of bandwidth there. We have seen a ton of energy in the last six months post-cloud completion in USIS where the team's really been able to be front-footed. You actually see that in the innovation and the new products rolling out very rapidly. They also were curtailed on their new product introductions. They kind of had one or two hands tied behind their back for almost two years along with the mortgage market. We have got a lot of energy around USIS. You look at new solutions, I hope, Andrew, you are as energized as we are about Twin Indicator. That is a great solution that is going to benefit USIS with more credit file market share as we deploy that going forward. A lot of the new product rollouts that we have out in the foyer are USIS-oriented. USIS now up to 10% vitality where they were lagging that in 2022 and 2023 and started to move forward in 2024. We have a lot of confidence in USIS being at a 6-8. I think their first quarter, you would argue, hopefully you would agree, it was quite good inside of that 6-8, X the mortgage market impact.
Yep.
Hey, this is Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley. Quick question for Chad first. I wanted to ask if you could provide any additional detail on the success at certain states. Are there similarities between the states that are adopting the EWS solutions, the verification, and how is the trajectory going within the state? There's such a big TAM right now, so just wanted to understand versus history of the trajectory there. My second question is on international, actually. On the slide, there's, with the circles in the different regions, employment and income in Canada, U.K., India, etc. And so I wanted to understand the opportunity to be able to leverage the employment and income data in the other countries and how big of an opportunity that is. Tha nks.
I'll take the second one, maybe with Patricio's help, but you take the first.
Yeah. We're seeing great momentum at the states. As I talked about before, the dedicated account executive team that we have really getting folks experienced local in the capitals. I think you're seeing it in, I mean, I won't speak to any particular states, but there were a couple of states in particular in 2024 that were new states and new programs we'd never gotten into before. The other aspect that we're trying to grow is, remember, each one of these states have multiple programs. We may have a strong Medicaid, for example, partnership, but less so in SNAP or unemployment income or some of these others. As we've gone into each one of these states and we again continue to have GR helping us, as well as with lobbyists and consultants to really understand the value that we create in one program, that carries over to the other program and we continue to kind of land and expand across each one of these states. See a lot of great momentum. That is where Mark said this. That is where a lot of the energy is. I think there is a lot of obviously policy and programs that have to land themselves here on the federal side over the coming months. Going to the state and helping them interpret what that means and how we can help them is going to be a big, big growth opportunity for us in 2026.
On the international side, I think, as you know, we have been investing for a number of years in taking Twin into some big markets like Canada, U.K., Australia, which are mortgage markets, right? If you think about those for obvious reasons, that is a great use case for the solution. It takes a while to build up the data set. We are in those three markets as well as India, and we are selling our data today. We're starting to get some scale. The record additions take time. There's the equivalent of payroll processors or partners up there. Some of them U.S. partners that are global. We're getting their records in those markets. Principally, we're going to the equivalents of the U.S. payroll processors that are in those different markets to build that out. I'd remind everyone who's been around Equifax for quite some time, when you think about the growth of EWS, it really accelerated when we got north of 50% coverage. Think about it, really three, four years ago, that really accelerated. For a user of the data to embed it in their workflows, coverage is really important. When you're having 30% hit rates or 25% hit rates, it takes time to get that into place until you get that coverage.
We're investing in those. We're going to keep investing in them. We see a track record. You shouldn't think about those moving the Equifax needle in 2025 or 2026, but we're investing for the next five to 10 years so we can take advantage of the Twin capabilities. Cloud is also a big advantage for us because we can take that EWS platform, the technology that manages that, and move it into those markets very efficiently, which we did in the U.K. We took the cloud platform that we completed almost four years ago in EWS, and we're able to now use that in the United Kingdom. We'll likely look at other markets to bring Twin into for the obvious reasons. When I meet with customers in Canada and the U.K., they all want Twin. No question, because the income and employment is so hard to verify, and they know the big coverage and the big asset that we have in the United States, and they look for us to continue investing in those global markets
Thanks. It's Faiza Alwi from Deutsche Bank. I first wanted to ask about the government vertical. I think, Chad, you talked about the potential for increasing the frequency of redeterminations on the government side. Could you help us size that? Sort of how big is that business currently? And are you building in that incremental frequency in your long-term framework? Sort of do you need that to happen? Just help us think through what the ups ide might be.
I'll let Chad jump in. But when we think about EWS, we expect EWS to be our fastest growing business. When we think about government, we expect it to outgrow EWS. There is no question with that big TAM and the huge benefit we deliver at the federal and state level. We expect that to be our fastest growing business across Equifax, period, in the long-term framework. There is no question we expect that growth. Redeterminations are one lever along with state penetration, new federal contracts that will go forward in the current Senate bill and House bill. They go from 12 months to six-month redeterminations. That is a po sitive for us, but jump in.
Yeah, no, I agree. I think there are two levers on it. One is not all of the states we operate in today are using Twin for their annual redeterminations. We have opportunity in white space already.
Certainly not all. It is like less than half.
Yeah, completely, right? We have huge opportunity to just grow that within. With the changes going to twice a year, that would double an already big opportunity just to size it directionally. I think, again, what I mentioned before on that data is when we looked at a one-year period of time, and we pulled specific government beneficiaries into that population of that study, and we looked at that one-year period of time that with any given month, we would have a 40% increase in their total income. That is not getting picked up at all when you're only doing a redetermination once a year.
That is the data we're sharing in Washington around the variability and dynamics of this demographic who are receiving social services. You think about it, they have a life event, they're working, then they can't work, they're getting social services, then they go back to work, but they're still getting those social services and likely don't qualify anymore. That is why the more frequent redeterminations are important. The other big macro in Washington, and it's in the Senate bill and the House bill, is to strengthen the income verification requirements. That is very positive for EWS to have stronger requirements because today there's still some waivers that the Biden administration put in place that allow for self-attestation of income versus verified income. Obviously, that opens the door for fraudulent behavior if you want. There are just a lot of opportunities with what's going on on the focus broadly in Washington around reducing the $160 billion of improper payments.
Chad also talked about some big programs we're not in in Washington, like the earned income tax credit. I think on the chart was, what, $16 billion a year of overpayments. And we've been working for five years to get into IRS. We expect that, and we're working to accelerate that to be another new program that we don't do today to help them really manage the $16 billion of improper payments from earned income tax credit. Just a lot of opportunity with the big focus in Washington.
Great. And then just secondly, on the Twin Indicator, how are you ensuring that it doesn't cannibalize the EWS busine ss? Particularly in verticals where you don't have high penetration, for example, autos, versus mortgage.
Yeah. So obviously, that's something very important to us and one that Joel is really focused on. I think you heard him talk about, if you know this, when we deliver an income and employment report at closing on an auto loan or a personal loan or a mortgage in particular, we deliver 50 attributes, a whole depth of data. Generally, in a lot of those, particularly in mortgage, we're adding three years, two years' worth of historical data. A lot of data is delivered that's really required. You think about it, it's gross pay, net pay deductions. If you're an employee that has incentive income, let's say you're a commission sales representative and you have bonuses that happen every quarter, but there's variability in those bonuses, that rich data is so valuable at the closing and super important for that qualification.
We want to make sure we protect that transaction, which is super important to Equifax, while benefiting the credit file with enough attributes to really help the mortgage originator, as Joel pointed out, or the auto lender, kind of ferret through what kind of a consumer do I have? Because remember now, they're doing marketing. They have a huge funnel. They spend actually billions of dollars a year marketing in the financial services space to consumers to bring them to their website to apply for a mortgage or an auto loan or a P loan or a credit card. They do not know if that individual's working. They'll see their credit score today because that's what they'll pull up front. They'll say, "Mark's credit score is 700, but I could be unemployed." I'll go all the way through the process.
I'll spend COGS and marketing, but then I can't close. Ha ving an indicator that Mark's working, having an indicator of hours worked or years of continuous employment, as Joel pointed out, the employer name, we think that's enough as we collaborate with our customers to add value in what I would call that marketing window of the transaction, but still protect the full income and employment transaction down at the end. As we've said many times, it's only going to be on the Equifax credit file. We've had customers say, "Can you give it to us just as a product?" and we said, "No, no, we're going to deliver that with the Equifax credit file in order to advantage really our market share with the credit file. We're going to do it for free."
Hi, thanks. Shlomo Rosenbaum for Stifel. This is for Chad, a few questions, really. First, just to confirm something we were talking about. In terms of EWS, there was a lot of growth over years, specifically from pricing. It sounds like you're leaning more into product versus pricing. If you could just talk about that a little bit more, about what you see driving the growth. I want to follow up question just on moving to fixed subscriptions for certain areas like in government. We've talked about this a little bit, but I'm trying to understand the dynamics of what happens if you get significant unemployment and you're paying royalties on the other end of that. Is that going to hit your margins? Is that really the right way you want to go?
Yeah. On the first one, you're right. I think I had a number of conversations out in the product showcase about pricing. There's no doubt that historically over the last several years, there have been significant price increases. I was a customer. I paid those price increases. The way I look at it as a customer and the way I look at it on this side of the table is we got a price for value. What's the value of that product to that institution and making sure that there's a good value exchange there? Now, as a partner, having a lot of significant increases over a short period of time is not necessarily the best way to go about it. As we go about it going forward, you're going to see much more balance and moderate price increases. You're going to see a couple of tactics that I talked about, which is things like subscription, right? Things that is how they like the pricing construct.
I mentioned it in the background screening community that got a lot of really good feedback is going to then saying, and specifically, we went to background screeners in 2024. This was the first year. The guy who runs my talent business is also new. We went to the market, and we met with all the leaders of the large background screeners and said, "We really want a win-win here. What pricing are you looking for for you to win more business from your customer?" Because obviously, they're trying to drive more verification of employment packages into their population as well. There are scenarios where we actually had a 0% price increase, but it came at a higher revenue and a higher commitment for more business across other things like incarceration data, like education data. That's kind of win-win dialogue that we really want to have with our customers because when they win and they drive more volume, we get more volume.
It also drives adoption of our solutions. It drives penetration.
100%.
Against manual.
Yep. Yep.
Maybe just on the subscription one, when you think about the subscription, when you're a government agency, it's very complex to manage budgets. They only get them once a year. They're very rigid. The subscription really gives them kind of a defined usage of our product. Let's say it's a new customer at a state level that we're converting that agency from fully manual into using our solution. We want to drive adoption. We want to get it embedded in their workflows. It's a huge amount of work they have to do to change their workflows and technology to embed our solution.
We want to make that as easy as we can by helping them technology-wise, product-wise, but also financially by giving them some certainty around this is how it's going to work. As we go through to the next year, we'll look at what are the transactions against that. If it's above the subscription kind of level, we'll have a new package of subscription for the next year and really kind of stair up with them as they're using more of the product going forward. We think it's a really good model, particularly when you have such a large TAM and you're really trying to convert manual to using your solution. How do you drive adopt ion?
Many things with the subscriptions are they cover what is expected to be spent by the state. To the extent something happens like you're describing where there's an unusual event where the volume would be much higher, they would go into overages, right? There is a cap, generally speaking, on the amount of the subscription, but it is structured so that hopefully everything the state needs in a normal circumstance, what they expected, is covered by the fixed amount that they're paying so that they do have budgetary certainty. Yeah, we do protect ourselves for an unusual event. Yeah.
In the back, Trevor.
Hi, Jason Haas with Wells Fargo. Can you talk about your level of interest in integrating consumer permissioned bank data into offerings for lenders? I was curious if that would sit within EWS or USIS if you were to roll it out.
Yeah. I'll let Chad, you heard about the government solution. You've got a pilot outside. We think that's a strike zone. What we found with consumer permission data is most consumers don't want to take the effort to do it. It becomes a workflow challenge for our customers in mortgage auto, particularly with a prime, near prime consumer. They want to get an instant decision and don't want to go through that effort. Our customers are reluctant to put that in their workflows because when they've tested it, they see consumers dropping out. Remember, they've spent money marketing to them to bring them into their product suite, and they're trying to close a deal with them. Where we have seen some traction is like in the government social services where that individual is trying to get that social service.
They're willing to invest the time to give their bank transaction data because they need food stamps, they need healthcare support, childcare support. We've also seen that, and Chad could talk about this, in some subprime where a consumer is really reaching for credit. They're willing to invest in the consumer consented. It's one that we want to do more of. I think a great example is what we're doing in the government vertical, but it's one that I personally don't see broad deployment of through the credit spectrum, particularly in the higher credit scores, just because of the friction involved.
Yeah, completely agree. Look, let's start with back what I said earlier. Twin is the gold standard. That is what at the end of the day, that's what most customers want, right? It's accurate, it's rich, it's timely, it's directly from the source. That's what they want. I view the consumer permission a little bit, especially in government, as supplemental to that and complementary of that, where we can't get access to that 1099 data that we need. You can't get it through Twin. Therefore, we're going to go the next best thing, which is consumer permission, which will get us access to that. Again, I view it as supplemental. In the use cases that people are going to be willing to do it, someone with a 750 that's getting a jumbo mortgage, they're not going to go through that process. Again, I think we can lean into maybe in areas of personal loans where people are going to be willing to do it. I think our customers tell us they want Twin. Where they have gaps, this is where they want and it's a need, and that's where we're going to be able to fulfill those.
This integrated solution that we have for government now, we'll likely look at moving that into some other verticals, particularly I would characterize more subprime oriented, where the consumer is willing to invest in that workflow. In essence, the same waterfall in integrated hit Twin first. Same thing, you've got a subprime consumer applying for a personal loan. They likely have a gig job also. Verifying their complete income is complex for that P loan originator. We'll look at bringing that solution into verticals like that where the consumer is willing to invest in it.
We do have circumstances in international where we do use consumer permission data because there's open data in place, for example, in the U.K. and expanding into other areas. I'd say we've had some success, right? I don't think it's really taken off substantially in any market that we're in b ecause of the part of what Mark's talking about, even when there isn't a substantial amount of friction because it's already built into the, it's already regulatory required. We do it. USIS does it to a degree for trying to provide some additional information on assets, right? They'll provide that service to a customer. Again, the uptake is very small.
Thank you. As a follow-up question, there's been some new regulation, looks like that's coming around trigger leads. I was curious if you could comment on what sort of impact that could have on your business.
Yeah. We'll see if that passes. It's been in the House and the Senate for years, actually. We personally think it's we want to have good behavior around triggers to make sure consumers are getting access to multiple alternatives. And that's really what the triggers provide. It gives a consumer gets more offers. There's some institutions that become more aggressive around that marketing. If it passes through, it's not a big impact for Equifax. It's not a big business for us on the trigger leads for mortgage. We'll see if it actually passes through.
Now, our revenue directly in triggers is relatively small. If it changes buyer behavior, right, then we'll see what that does. But the direct impact for us is pretty small.
If you think about what they're being used for, it's being used for mortgage originators to market. If trigger leads don't become the way to market, they're going to look for other ways to market because they got to fill their funnel, right? Our differentiated data would be something that we'd look for what other solutions can we provide. In this case, it's someone who's in the market looking for a refi or in the market looking for a loan for their purchase. For the consumer, it generally puts more offers in front of them, meaning they get inbounds what those are. There will be other ways they're going to want to market. Who's got the mic?
I do. Surrender Thin with Jefferies. Mark, just big picture, when we rewind to four years ago and you kind of laid out a vision and then you executed against the vision under obviously very tough circumstances. Fast forward to today, you're laying out a vision here, right? There doesn't seem to be a change in the financial framework here. Was everything already anticipated when you were laying out that vision? What is new here today, the message that you want to get across?
Yeah. I hope you heard some of that. First off, from four years ago, none of us anticipated mortgage rates doubling and the mortgage market going down in h alf. When we did our investor day virtually four years ago, we thought the mortgage market had a blip, if you will, or a boom from the refi boom, but it was going to come back to that 2015 and 2019 level, which it has been for really kind of adjusted for some population growth. It has really been pretty steady for decades. That obviously was a huge change. That took $1+ billion of revenue out of our P&L between 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 that we did not anticipate. No question about that. If you look at our non-mortgage growth through that period, adjusted for taking mortgage out, we feel good about that growing inside of our long-term framework. Our intention today was to reinforce that we have confidence in our long-term framework. We think 7%-10% organic with 50 basis points of margin expansion is a pretty good business.
Obviously, what's new today is the capital allocation plan that wasn't in place then. At then we were talking about it. Now it's in place. I think there's real clarity about how we're going to invest inside of Equifax and then the cash we're going to return to shareholders. We intended to message today that we've been messaging for quite some time that we don't need a mortgage market recovery to deliver that long-term framework. Just the two-three points of GDP growth that's inherent in our kind of growth model going forward. We wanted to message very clearly, we believe over the long- term, the mortgage market's going to increase. Consumers will get used to the high rates. Rates will come down.
They won't come down to where they were, but this kind of 20-year high in rates, we don't believe, I'm not an economist, don't believe they'll stay there forever. When that happens, that excess free cash flow from the mortgage market recovery is going to return to shareholders. That's what we intended to deliver and then also talk a bunch about kind of a post-cloud Equifax. Back to your comments, back four years ago, we thought we'd complete the cloud sooner than we did. It took longer and it was harder than we thought even four years ago, but now it's done. We're at that 90%. That's a big milestone for us to have that complete so the whole organization can now fully focus on innovation, growth, and new products. We think that's an exciting new Equifax and how we think about the company going forward.
And then as a follow-up, when you think about subscription revenues and your push towards 25%, is there the potential to push that further when you think big picture of maybe you could do an all-you-can-eat model across the board, or are there just natural pockets where you have to kind of stick with the transaction-based model?
No, there'll clearly be a lot of portions of our business that'll stay transaction-oriented, but the 25%, to be clear, is this year. Just in a short time frame, it's gone up, I think, 14% CAGR, really because of the growth in certain business segments like talent, like government in EWS. We expect that growth to continue really because we're trying to drive adoption. Do not think about us, we're taking a right-hand turn to trying to turn the business into a full subscription model. That's likely not possible. The benefit to Equifax and we believe to our shareholders is you have an increasing mix of businesses that are more consistent and have more depth to it because of the subscription model that we have going forward. That's only going to grow because those businesses are growing faster than the rest of Equifax. Government and talent will be faster-growing businesses than the bulk of Equifax. That subscription number should continue to increase.
Hi, Kelsey Zhu from Autonomous here. Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions. The first one being kind of circling back to consumer consent data. Are you building the capabilities in-house? How much does it cost to build? Are you buying it from someone? H ow are you thinking about the pricing and profitability of utilizing consumer consent data?
I assume you're referring to government, so I'll let Chad take it.
Sure. Yeah. We are building in a combination of in-house and partner. The in-house, we believe with the design of the solution, is really where the magic is.
Really integrating it into the Twin workflow.
Exactly. That experience it generates, we own all of that. Our tech teams have built all of that. Again, we're excited about launching that in August. As far as what was the other quote about monetizing it? Yeah. I mean, again, it's a huge opportunity here. I mean, I'm not going to get into pricing conversations or anything like that on the product. I mean, we think, again, upwards of 30%+ , 40% of some of these folks today are not getting this data. We're not monetizing this data because we don't have access. We've done some calculations where we think this by itself in government alone is a $300 million-$400 million TAM that we're just now entering in its complete white space in the revenue growth that we have going forward.
Got it. Super helpful. Second question on employer services. I think the segment has seen some headwinds since the end of 2023. I think we've seen six quarters of revenue decline. Just curious to get your latest thoughts around strategies to turn the segment around.
Yeah. Part of that, I'll let John and Mark jump in for the history. I mean, part of that is obviously we have some tailwinds of some revenue streams that no longer exist, like ERC, right? That's something that we've had to outrun a bit. As we've given in our guidance, as we move into the second half and get to the end of 2025, we see a positive year-over-year growth in employer services. We've hired a new head of employer services that's been on board for about 90-180 days now, put together a strategy that we presented to the board. We feel very good about, again, I-9, particularly in onboarding and particularly of that list that we think has some really significant growth. I shared the tripling of the I-9 virtual volumes you can see, which is getting traction around that NPI.
I also think there's opportunities for us to continue to increase our margins on the expense base as well. There are some integrations that we want to do and some platform rationalization that we do that drive out significant costs to continue to increase our margins. I also talked about distribution, right? We talked about background screeners as a great opportunity, p ayroll processors. Both of those are distribution engines today. We've had money conversations with them. They acknowledged we've got world-class products, and it makes a lot of sense. It would be a win-win through our partners to let them drive additional revenue distribution as well. Those things are just now starting to take hold. I think, yes, it's been a tough couple of years for sure. I think, again, we're going to see the light in the second half of the year as we turn positive and grow from there.
Just a reminder, we don't expect employer services to be a fast-growing business, right? This is a low to mid-single-digit type growth business that's within the 13%-15% EWS long-term framework. That's the expectation that's embedded.
Of course, as Chad pointed out in his presentation, one of the benefits of those multiple services we deliver to HR managers is we also get direct records. We grow our records base, and obviously, we know rev share on those. That's a clear part of our strategy. As I mentioned in my comments, I think we've done five acquisitions in the last five years to strengthen employer around WATC and some of the other capabilities. The macros of the change in the WATC forms requirements last year was a real headwind. And ERC was a fairly large business for us post-COVID, and then it went to zero. So that wind down was a big drag on the business in really 2023 and 2024.
Thank you. Craig Huber of Huber Research. Two questions. Talk about regulations first. What's your updated thought on any potential changes for regulatory environment there on the mortgage side of your business? Obviously, Bill Poultier has been in the market, pressed a lot in the last month or so, talked about price and his dissatisfaction there, etc. But what sort of changes potentially can you see here under the Trump administration? There were some regulatory changes that were proposed underneath Biden. Do you think any of those will go through? What does it mean to your business?
Yeah. He put out a tweet, so I met with him. It is very public that happened. I think he's thinking through what are the right changes. He understands the value of the 3B, I believe. We shared with him the 10 million consumers that are only on credit file, the 40 million consumers that have a 20-30-point score difference. The value of 3B is very important, which was proposed by the prior administration, never got anywhere. Really, the mortgage industry knew that that did not make a lot of sense. There are so many proof points on it. Some of the most sophisticated lenders outside of mortgage pull 3B because it improves their originations. I mean, they pull all three credit files for an auto loan, a credit card loan, a personal loan because they get more coverage and are able to drive that through.
I think he's been frustrated with pricing from FICO, no question about that. Where that goes, I'm not sure. I think we're all surprised to see the Republican administration focused on something like that. Obviously, Director Poultier has got that that he's thinking through. Impact on Equifax, we don't think it'll be substantial. We don't believe there's going to be a change in the 3B requirement because it drives financial inclusion. It also drives higher-performing underwriting. Whether there's a change in how they do the credit score, we'll have to see. I think that's also likely unlikely.
My unrelated question, if I could, talk about auto and credit card volumes out there now, where they're at in your mind versus historical trends here. How do you see that playing out long-term, credit card and auto?
Yeah, long-term is a long time. Maybe in the current environment in 2025, I would say they're fairly stable. Our customers are quite strong, meaning the banks and the financial institutions and the fintechs. There was a period post-COVID where a lot of the fintechs had some financial challenges because of rising delinquencies, and they generally aren't balance sheet funded. The banks that loaned them money were tightening up what they could do from an origination standpoint. That's kind of stabilized out. Broadly, consumers are still strong because they're working. Unemployment is still so low. There are at the low-end kind of subprime consumers pressures from inflation, even though it's down. Remember, the compounded impact of inflation hasn't kept up with wage growth, hasn't kept up with the inflation that's happened over the last three or four years. There's still pressures down at the subprime. Broadly, I would say when we look at kind of the second half of this year, we expect it to be a fairly stable m arket with regards to the end ma rkets that we're dealing in.
In terms of overall general levels, we would say probably both auto and car are running below what you'd consider their long-term averages. Right? They're stable, but they're probably weaker than you would consider normal.
Thank you very much. Arthur Truslow from Citi. Two questions, if I may, please. First question, you talk quite a bit about taking share and that the cloud transformation being complete should help with that. Obviously, one of your peers is also very keen on taking share as well.
Actually, both of them are.
Yeah. I just wondered sort of who are you sort of planning to take share off specifically? Also within that, are there specific product lines where you think either you could improve your products to support that or that you could demonstrate that your products are already good, but people perhaps do not know about it that would support that? Second question, back to the sort of mortgage point and the credit score model that is being used. Obviously, you have benefited from organic growth as a result of FICO cranking its pricing. If we were to go to a scenario where there were more than one model used, and VantageScore was used, I understand you own a chunk of VantageScore. Can you just talk through the sort of puts and takes economically from your perspective, please?
Yeah, those are two loaded questions. Well done. I will start with the first one. Hopefully, you heard a myriad of approaches of how we're going to be more competitive in the marketplace today than we've ever been. It starts with our differentiated data. We can bring differentiated solutions to drive market share. We're driving higher-performing products. You heard from myself, from Cecilia, from Harold, and all of us around how AI is driving more predictive solutions. Those drive market share. We have a better product going forward. Underpinning that is our differentiated data. Our competitors don't have the scale of data that we have. I think that's a real advantage. New for Equifax is the ability to now deploy the Twin Indicator to really benefit mortgage, auto, card, P-loan, credit decisioning, where historically we would go kind of one-to-one against the other two competitors with our credit files, adding differentiated data.
Now we can add that income and employment data that's used at closing. That is what we think is a very positive advantage. Cloud in itself is one that we're seeing positives from our customers. There are customers that are moving to Equifax because we've invested in the cloud. We have higher performance with our stability. We're delivering the nine nines of stability. Remember, if we're down or our competitors are down, they're not originating. That becomes a C-suite conversation like, "Why was your revenue down or new applications down yesterday, last week, last month?" "We had a problem with our credit bureau partner." That table stakes of digital is super important. The speed of data transmission, we shared some anecdotes, Jamil and I, about how we're delivering a faster solution that allows them to close more transactions with someone that's in a digital process.
People aren't dropping out. All of those, the cloud capabilities, we think will also. You think about cloud capabilities we've invested in, our big focus on innovation and new products, the AI that we're delivering powered by our differentiated data. We believe all of those are going to allow us to drive growth, which is going to be in the credit space, really USIS International, generally share shifts more to Equifax is what we think going forward. We're going to be better armed to do that. Your second question on mortgage about what happens if it's a FICO or Vantage score. As you know, the three credit bureaus own Vantage. Our COGS on Vantage are really zero because we fund the operation of Vantage. That would be quite positive. Frankly, it's going to take time to drive that change if that happened.
Again, this is an if. FICO is very embedded. It's been used for 50 years in those kind of processes. Change would come quite slowly. We have seen change happen. Use mortgage as an example in the shopping process or pre-qual. You go back two years ago, that was a 3B pull. Predominantly, they pull three credit reports and someone in the shopping process to do that pre-qualification. Today, some originators are pulling one or two because of costs. It's a COGS for them. Joel, what did you say? It's a one in five or one in eight falling out. Seven out of eight times, they're eating the COGS on that. They are going to a one or two B pull. Now, what are we doing? We are adding a Twin Indicator to differentiate our credit file in that shopping process.
We're adding NC plus cell phone utility attributes to our credit file to differentiate us in that shopping process. In auto and card and P-loans, it's different because it's not a mandated 3B. It's one where there's fairly distributed share, meaning all three of us have it. We want to differentiate our credit file in that process. It's one where we're providing more value to the auto originator, more value to the credit card originator, more value to the P-loan originator with that Twin Indicator that helps them originate more and really do a better job in their marketing process. We're going to do that for free, meaning we're not going to change the price of our credit file. We want to differentiate the value of our credit file. That is a lot of the strategy I hope you heard today about how we want to go to market to really drive our market shares and drive our growth.
Thank you very much.
Sorry, I just wanted to ask one question for Jamil since he has been a bit nice. Yeah, very good. I feel left out . You said you had a 10-year advantage versus the competition in your prepared remarks. I was just hoping for a little bit more color. Was that just on the security side? Is it overall tech? Is it the bureaus? Is it other data providers? Just any color because we get a lot of he said, she said between the players. Jus t any data point you can help us with that.
No, that comment was about technology in general, specific to our competitors. If you look at most transformations, I think the stats are only 40% of them ever even complete. They just get abandoned because they're so difficult to do. We're almost there. We're at that 90% mark today. First, we've got a major advantage on that front. The second part of it is because we are so close to the finish line, because we're leveraging AI to the degree that we are today, because we have the cloud provider and almost weekly new releases for new capabilities that they have. There are 130 services today, and they go up all the time. That advantage we have today, it's going to continue to snowball. It's going to compound itself. Even if you start and you try to compete with us and build up and get to the cloud-native infrastructure that we have today, we're already going to be outpacing you along the way as well. That is where I get the roughly 10-year timeframe. Depending on how we perform, I think it could be even beyond that as well.
Great. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for your time. It was a lot of time this morning. We appreciate it. We appreciate your support. We will be around during lunch outside if you have some more questions for us one-on-one with any of the team. Thank you very much.