Exactly. Good morning. Again, this is Dave Begleiter of Deutsche Bank's US Chemicals Equity Research team. Next up is a team from Eastman Chemical, Willie McLain, CFO, and of course, Greg Riddle, who runs the investor relations and corporate communications for the company. So with that, Willie, welcome.
Thanks, David. Happy to be here.
Thank you. Willie, maybe you can walk us around the world from a demand perspective, demand trends by region, by business, by end markets?
Okay, David, I'd just highlight as we think about how we built our base plan this year, it was highly focused on, I'll call it the absence of destocking. Also, the fact that roughly 50% of our end markets are, I'll call it stable, so GDP plus, and that was underlying our expectations. Also, as we think about, in the auto motor space, we were expecting roughly, I'll call it flat builds on a year-over-year. And, in the durables, we expected improvement, you know, coming off of lows, and then, also in building construction, actually slight, you know, neutral to down.
So as we think about what we were expecting, and so as we think about our success in achieving our guidance, you know, what we're seeing here as we continue to go through Q2 is it's broadly in line, whether we look at it from an end market perspective or across our four segments. You know, I'll specifically focus on advanced materials and additives and functional products. We're seeing, I'll call it the expected seasonal uptick in durables, maybe a little. We're seeing it in building and construction as well, probably just maybe not as positive as the durable space. You know, as I look around the world, you know, obviously, the U.S. and North America continue to be the healthiest.
I think, you know, probably a little bit of disappointment as people are looking at PMIs and, you know, the velocity of growth that are coming out of, Asia and China specifically, but we weren't expecting, growth and or recovery from those end markets. So from a demand standpoint, in line with what we were expecting, and we continue to see those trends. Yeah, I would highlight, obviously, just like Q1, March was important, and that played out, you know, well for Eastman. June is, critical as well as we think about, you know, that seasonal and, everything that we see on the order books continue, to support, our expectations of approximately $2 for Q2.
Very good, good news. Looking to the back half of the year, what are your expectations for any demand improvements?
As we think about the back half, a couple of things. One, as we continue to make significant progress with our methanolysis project in Kingsport and, you know, ultimately unlocking you know the demand for our customers and the product launches, we see the incremental EBITDA that we've talked about there being primarily in the second half, and, you know, we can talk a little bit more about methanolysis a little later. Additionally, as we see, you know, in the first half of the year, we've had some impacts of volumes and chemical intermediates, and we see, you know, better performance on that front due to just product availability and, you know, overall, just demand fundamentals.
So as we see it, second half for Eastman, we expect advanced materials and chemical intermediates to, you know, to basically have improved volume and demand growth, whereas our fibers business stable, and there's some seasonality, I would say, in the second half, primarily in our ag exposure within additives and functional products. But as we think about, you know, the full year guide, we continue to be confident in the range and making progress, again, here in Q2, and we'll see the momentum that that gives us going into the second half in Q3, you know, here in the near term.
Very good. We know destocking is over. Has there been much of any restocking yet?
Yeah, I would say, in my view, no real signs of restocking. You know, I think what you're seeing is you're seeing continued discipline from a working capital, you know, the Fed making choices to not lower rates, although the ECB, I think, did today. So people are being disciplined as I would, right? But what you are seeing from, as I say, more instances of rush orders and or restocking, I call it, getting it to the customer so that they can, you know, continue to meet demand.
So I think that's what we're seeing broadly, and I think that will continue until there's a true primary demand. I'll call it confidence, and that confidence will come through, you know, lower rates and then also just broader economic stability.
In China, are we seeing any signs of meaningful recovery yet?
You know, as we even talk to our... You know, we have more people traveling, engaging with our team members there and our customers. I think, you know, consumer confidence, I think, will need to continue to pick up for local demand. I think we've all seen instances of where, I'll call it, at least not where we're competing, but as we think about, you know, more commodity types, you're seeing their products show up, whether it's in Europe or Latin America and other locations around the world. And I think, you know, we need the confidence of, you know, the consumer in China to basically absorb that. I think, you know, some of that's been mitigated, from a trade standpoint, just to, you know, just some of the higher logistics costs.
Where we compete in chemical intermediates, we've seen relatively little impact. We've got a great position here in North America, you know, from supplying our specialties, and where we do compete, you know, it's not been a significant impact of their exports.
Right. In Europe, some things have stabilized. Any signs of... Is that your view of European market, stable-ish?
I would say stable-ish, but I think you're seeing assets under scrutiny. So that's been more and more assets are coming to market or choices are being made with those assets. You know, as I've highlighted previously on some of our calls, you know, as we have moved forward with, you know, after our tires and adhesives divestitures, that actually reduced our footprint to really, more specialty with our advanced materials, additives, and functional products is our footprint. They compete regionally, they compete on the applications and the value that we create for brands and our customers.
And actually, there's not a lot of, I'll call it, high labor intensive or high energy intensive. That's so I think we have a strong footprint, and you're starting to see, I'll call it, positive trends, as you think about personal care, water treatment, and those types of end markets, that we have served with some of those assets.
Just on durables globally, it's been a source of weakness for you guys the last 12-18 months. That has stabilized, it appears, the durables demand?
I definitely think it has stabilized, and just as a reminder, you know, we're not competing in large appliances, et cetera. It's, you know, kitchenwares, it's even now with some of our sustainable products, it can even be in power tools, and cosmetics. So as we think about those types of, I'll call it, product solutions, you know, even that we've seen stabilization, and we're actually starting to see, you know, reconnecting to primary demand, and we're seeing that, then that's also key to delivering, you know, our approximately $2 a share here in Q2.
Very good. On pricing and inflation, are you still expecting, I think, a net price cost negative in 2024? Is that the most recent guidance?
Yeah, I would say, and I think if you look at our specialties, and we've talked about that, I think it's evolving. So as we think about, you know, that demand, you know, coming back, you've also seen, you know, lower energy costs. I think it's to be determined, you know, ultimately, if natural gas and utilities play out lower for the year, that could be, you know, closer to neutral. But I would say, you know, around neutral to slightly negative is what we've, you know, seen year to date.
At that point, you mentioned energy. Propane is at about, down about 25% since February. How does that impact advanced adhesives?
Most of our, I'll call it, our propylene to propane spread, I would call it 80% plus, is within our chemical intermediates business. And what we've seen, you know, here in Q2, I don't think substantially changes our view for the quarter. We'll reassess that, we take demand factors in for the back half. So I would say it's, it's more neutral here because of, you know, where propylene is relative to propane, and spreads are, are similar to expectations and not just, pretty similar from, Q1.
Got it. Just one thing back on the guidance. You got into about $1.3 billion of operating profit in 2024. Are the key bridge elements still the same as you laid out back in late April?
Yeah, I think, the key bridge items, as we've talked about, volume and mix, we spent a lot of time on that, also utilization rates, being key, and then also, the incremental EBITDA from our methanolysis facility.
On the cash flow, you got going to about $1.4 billion this year, operating cash flow.
Yeah.
What are the upside and downside risks to that guidance?
Yeah, as we think about that, you know, obviously reconnecting to primary demand and getting the earnings and the sales growth You know, one of the challenges will be, you know, with a stronger second half, from an earnings, you know, is the working capital that goes with that stronger. But our team is highly focused on cash and cash flow and achieving, you know, that end result, regardless of, I'll call it, the economic and, you know, the business curves, being different. Also, as we think about, you know, on the tax front, you know, it's, you know, the upside could have been, could we get a tax deal done? That's not going to happen this year, but, we're still focused on delivering the $1.4.
Very good. Switching to the fun stuff now, circular economy advanced recycling, the Kingsport methanolysis facility.
Yes.
How is that facility ramping up as we speak?
You know, what I would highlight, the great thing is we're making, I'll call it, excellent progress on, the mechanical issues that we had with the facility. The reliability is greatly increasing, and our ability, you know, to learn and adapt of how we operate that. So again, to the operators, the engineers, the technology team, they're making significant and great progress, and we're excited about that. Because what that does is it enables us to work with the brands and unlock the brand launches, you know, that we need to deliver the $75 million of incremental EBITDA.
We're still on that pathway based on the results that we've seen, you know, since the conference call. I would also highlight, you know, early on, you know, with the continuous plant, you start the plant up, you're probably operating in the 50% or 60%. We're moving, you know, today towards that 70%-80% utilization rate. And, you know, we have a path and a line of sight to achieving that 100%, so that we can also then to the, I'll call it the hard to recycle materials. Again, where I sit here today. We're excited that we're making the progress, and that the pathway to $75 million is there in front of us.
So I'd say the feed is still more cleaner feed, cleaner waste, correct?
Today, that is true. You know, what I would highlight is we used a bridge technology called Glycolysis. That enabled us over the last, you know, 24-30 months, to supply, brands so that, they could test their products on the shelves with consumers and the price point. So by going to, the feedstock that we're using now in Methanolysis, that's actually already creating incremental EBITDA. And as we, you know, work ourselves to the most complex, you know, that can be, polyester alpha carpet, it can be large chunk waste.
We have that ready to go, and we have continued to pilot that, David, so that we're going to methodically work ourselves through that. You know, sitting here today, I believe you know, most of the key challenges are behind us. It was construction, it was mechanical, it's the learning curve. As we think about the technology, the yield, the on spec.
You know, the product quality is, you know, better or as good as fossil fuel, as what we're already seeing come out today. And, you can think that we put the most robust technology as we have in our pilot facilities, to be able to handle, you know, the transition to the more complex. But that's where we're focused, and as we said, we will be working ourselves through that during Q2, you know, potentially into early Q3. But the progress to date reaffirms that, you know, the pathway to $75 million is, still in front of us, and I'm excited about that.
So by Q4, should we be feeding in the harder recycled or the more mixed plastic waste, the harder to recycle material? Is that a Q4 timeline, or is it perhaps by year-end?
It's in the model as we think about delivering the $75. So the answer is yes, it will be in there this year.
Got it. Now, on the $75 million, you modified your language, your terminology at the Q1 call.
Yeah.
The pathway to $75 million, does that imply a... I wrote a slight shortfall, perhaps $10 million-$15 million. To that target, is that still possible or reasonable?
I think it's just acknowledging that we had more issues with, I'll call it, the transition from operating to achieving the rates and the conversion. I think we've highlighted that was 4 or 6 weeks or so. So it's an acknowledgment of that, David. Obviously, as we think about also achieving the overall broader results both corporately, which includes the 75, but also advanced materials . You also saw us, you know, go from, you know, greater than 450. You know, to a range that you know, raised that for advanced materials.
So as we collectively look at the strength of our specialties and that transition, it's also reaffirming that we're confident in the direction and the path that we're headed. It may not be precisely there, milestone by milestone, but the direction and the confidence that we have, and we will demonstrate that. Y ou know, over the next 6-9 months.
If you mind, where this material will be going into, what types of products, what types of brands?
Absolutely. As we think about our portfolio of products within advanced materials, our Tritan brand, which has been a great growth, you know, product development in and of itself, to greater than $500 million, over a decade. And you take that, with our core copolyesters.
Those products compete on three things today. It's clarity, chemical resistance, and durability. We're adding a fourth dimension, and that's, you know, with sustainability and circularity, to compete, against other plastics and importantly, other polyesters. So we're using those, and as you think about-- we've talked about being in durable end markets, you know, I would add things like personal care. You can think about perfume bottles as an example. You can think about the medical, and medical devices. Medical devices, you know, the healthcare industry wants those to be in service. And with the cleaning protocols, they want those, again, to be durable over the long term, and our product meets that, but it also gives them the sustainability lens.
So we're a solution that already adds value to our customers and how they compete on the shelves with their brands against alternative products. And now we're giving them something new to compete with and differentiate. And it's through that differentiation that we create value, and it's in those applications, and that's what I call our specialty plastics model of how we're going to win with the Kingsport plant. It is highly integrated into that specialty plastics business.
Right.
The other perspective I'll give you is, our Texas facility that, you know, we announced on the call, you know, the site location and also announced, being selected for the DOE and up to $375 million of an award for that program. And this is what I call a circular solution. So you have large packaging needs. Our PepsiCo contract is a, is, is an example of that. So what the DOE allows us to do is to not only, you know, do methanolysis, we're also going to have polymer lines, which could produce PET or copolyesters and bring that close to a zero carbon compared to fossil fuel. For this project with thermal batteries, roughly 90% lower carbon than producing with fossil fuels.
So you've got circularity, you've got a low carbon footprint, and we're actually showing the reality of what can be done with brands in the specialty, but also in the packaging. We're doing that right now, and it's a better way to influence policy and other directions, as it's not theoretical business plan. We can come show the processes, and affect the direction. So it's really exciting, David.
Very much. On your implied EBITDA targets for these plants, what's the implied price premium for this low-carbon recycled polyester or PET?
Yeah. So I'll, I'll take you back to the $75 million first, which is, you know, here in the first half of the year, in Q2, you're going to see, the benefits of the project being up and running, and most of that benefit's going to be in our other segments, so roughly $25 million of incremental EBITDA. In the back half of the year, what you're going to start to see is, these products and end markets and the brands that, that we're highlighting, like, you know, brands like, LVMH and, and others, that those products will start to come to market. You know, we're producing Tritan copolyester, today, and those value chains will start to be filled. So that's the incremental that we would get.
We've also talked about these being above corporate and segment average as we think about the EBITDA margins. For the three plants and the three projects total, that number is, you know, we've put out there, is roughly $450 million. The Kingsport plant is, I'll call it a higher return, so you can expect also higher margins come along with that, both due to the specialty nature and also the integration with our Kingsport facility.
On Kingsport, how should we think about the EBITDA ramp-up in 2025 and 2026, your ultimate target of $150 million-$200 million from Kingsport?
So we've talked about, you know, roughly this year, $75 million of incremental, with, I'll call it two-thirds of that being in advanced materials. So if you're roughly $50 million in the back half, you're exiting it somewhere at 75 or a little greater. We've talked about, at least with the line of sight that we have today, that you could be exiting 2025 at $150. That means in 2026, you're at $150 or greater from an actual EBITDA, and I actually think that number can be at the greater level, but we'll frame it at that level for now.
Looking forward to it. On the Longview, Texas, facility, you have a couple of key elements in place. You have a large DOE funding element. You have the PepsiCo base load supply contract. Can you discuss the elements of those and how they have come together to drive this project to almost FID?
Yes. You know, what we said is, as we think about this business model, it had to have several things. One, it had to have contracts, because as we think about Longview, Texas, it's about a circular solution. We were in the PET industry, and we're not going back to the PET industry. You know, I actually got to lead the, I'll call it, the sale of the final facility, so this is why it's about a solution. As you think about, you know, products and product offerings to the packaging industry, mechanical recycling is a value-added process, but in many cases it doesn't meet, I'll call it, the product needs or the functional needs. An example this morning is I'm having a product that was mechanically recycled, and it's not clear anymore.
It's grey, as you're trying to have a beverage. So as you think about different applications, also, mechanical recycling will break down. It will not function. So we can take all of these, I'll call it, issues that we're seeing with that and basically make it renewable. You break it down into the two key products, ethylene glycol and DMT, and we can make it, you know, infinitely renewable. And we're doing that today. But we're going to do it in a solution that enables the brands to, one, meet their carbon footprint.
Two, meet their, also their commitments as you think about circularity. And it's also, in my view, a natural hedge versus disconnects as you go through different policy cycles, different availability cycles, is we can give you a solution that has long-term benefit and effectively, a price point from a return perspective. You don't have the volatility that you could have being exposed to a market that has disconnect and unknown you know, taxes or cost.
Very good. And for Longview, are you still on track for FID Q3 this year and start up back half 2027? Are those still the right dates?
So what I would say is, the answer is yes. We're currently negotiating with the DOE on the key principles of achieving the $375 million, and the time horizon in which those will be impacted. That, along with the PepsiCo contract, as well as, you know, progressing the engineering, I think are the three things that enable us, you know, to make the decision, you know, here in the near term.
Very good.
Thank you.
Now, on the France project, on the Q1 call, you know, that you were not delaying it, but evaluating the timeline, given certain changes in the landscape. Can you discuss what's caused you to perhaps delay the France project, and how those might evolve going forward?
Sure. As we highlighted on the call, there's two or three factors. You know, one of the factors, as I said, with Longview, we're continuing to look at the engineering and make sure that the investment level is at the appropriate level to generate the returns and, you know, make sure that the cash flow investment is at the appropriate level. Two, in the current environment, as you think about with policy, and I'll call it supply-demand in general, in the European environment, that's created questions for brands, and us, as we think about the policy. So those are ongoing discussions.
We're working together to influence, because I think brands and Eastman need more certainty of how these policies are going to be enacted and so that we're moving forward on the right foot and influencing the policy before we make investments and commitments, which is, you know, back to what we said we were going to be, which is discipline. The key thing is we have and develop multiple options. So we will realize the learnings from Kingsport on Longview. We're partnering so that we can with brands, so that we can be a fast follower from Longview with the France project. Right now, I'd say there's not been, you know, significant updates since our call, just given the complexity of the environment.
Is there a timeline to resolve these issues in your mind or, or move forward?
I think, you know, we're, we're working to inform timelines, you know.
Okay
Through the learnings and the engagement, and, you know, we'll update you at some point in the future.
Going forward with this, you know, circular economy platform, what's the business strategy? Would you license these plans? Would you bring in partners? Would you build more on your own? What's the beyond these first three in the pipeline?
Yeah, to me, there's two solutions. One, highly tied to advanced materials and specialty plastics. As we continue to win in more markets and with more customers and more brands, that's core to who we are. As we think about circular solutions, what I would say is, one, we want to prove that the model is a business model. Which gives us then the leverage of, as you think about brands and the commitments that they want to make, we will look at models that create the most value for our shareholders.
But, we're confident that building out the model is most critical for creating the, the most value and the most optionality. If ultimately, if we're going to be successful, like other, you know, brands have been with recycling and circularity, including the aluminum industry, we need lots of plants and lots of capacity. You know, there's other technologies that are for olefins and olefin products. We're not focused on that. We're focused on the ones that are polyester. There are complementary benefits of supply chains developing, you know, from a sourcing of, you know, multiple technologies being successful. So again, we want reduce, reuse. We also know that a big piece of the solution has to come from Eastman and the industry.
Does M&A play a role in the polyester-focused growth of this circular economy platform?
My belief is that it can in the future, as you think about, you know, demands and needs, and different applications and different end markets. I would say that's down the road. We're focused, you know, right now on creating the value from the strategy that we've outlined.
Very good. Before, let me stop. Any questions for Willie? Wait, Chris, one second for the microphone.
Just two sort of housekeeping questions. In terms of the C&I business, I know it's volatile, but you've talked about... Well, you've got a maintenance expense this quarter of $20 million. You've talked about a better second half. Are the spreads actually improving such that you get the maintenance, you know, dropping out, the cost out from the second quarter numbers and then better, can you do better than $20 million improvement, say, sequentially, coming out of the second quarter? And then secondly, when you've got the circular plant up and running in Kingsport, does all that income end up in AM next year?
I mean, you got the $25 falling out of corporate this year in terms of expense or, you know, a benefit, but does that all, does that all end up in AM next year, or is the $150 run rate split elsewhere within the divisions?
Chris, thanks for your questions, and I'll start with your second question first. So the answer is yes. As we think about the Kingsport facility and the incremental EBITDA from the second half forward, all of that will show up in the advanced materials segment. As I think about the chemical intermediates, obviously, we talked about the maintenance. With the maintenance also is the volume. So I would say volume and mix is the predominant factor as we think about absence of maintenance adds $20, volume and mix will add on top of that, and then I would say there could be some seasonal spread uplift as well, but that would be the third factor.
Very good. Well, a few questions on the segments. Always like to touch on fibers since it's a uniquely good business. It's had a true renaissance. Earnings in 2024 should be up almost threefold versus 2022. What's driven this earnings renaissance, and how sustainable is it going forward?
Yes, I would say there's two or three key factors as we think about fibers and that business team leading a multi-year strategy to result in where we are. That multi-year strategy also is on, you know, how are we advancing our cellulosic initiatives? It's not only about, you know, acetate tow and filter media, it's about acetate flake and how we can create a significant value because it's the original biopolymers. You think about wood pulp, and now we can, you know, use our Carbon Renewal Technology to combine that, and that's a very strong value proposition. Two, I would say the industry, you know, has obviously rightsized the asset, you know, around the world.
And three, it's, I would say, product complexity and alternative risk products that the brands and the industry have brought about for the filter media. The product complexity actually runs slower, so therefore it can consume the capacity. Our view was, to be in this business long term, we're going to get paid for it, and it, it needs to be at a level where we can be there to support, because we're not going to invest in, I'll call it, reinvestment, maintenance, et cetera, if we're not getting paid for it.
And these alternative products, one that I'm really excited about is a product called Aventa in the cellulosic space, and it's on the shelves of brands that are being tested today, where you can take cellulosic material that can be foamed, that is a drop-in replacement, as an example, for polystyrene, on grocery shelves, where your protein can be, or your utensils. That's an example of how innovation, and that's a biodegradable product, versus the existing product. So innovation is core, and that innovation then puts tension, and then you can achieve those. And what gives me confidence in the tension is, you know, 100% of our business is contracted this year, 90% in 2025, and roughly 70% in 2026.
Now, our job is to continue to be successful on the innovation front, but also to be a reliable supplier, because the input cost of our product in a filter is a very small fraction of the overall cost of, you know, what consumers are experiencing.
Just on Carbon renewal technology, how should we think about the growth of this business from an earnings perspective and some of the key products you're targeting here?
Yeah, and I didn't mention Naia, so you know, ultimately, the incremental growth that we're even seeing this year in fibers is because of some of the success that we're having with Naia in textile. With Aventa, you know, I think we will start to see you know, revenue here in the back half. And as we've talked about, you know, with that and the innovation, you know, there is definitely within a view of you know, significantly growing, and as we talked about, that number could be as high as $200 million.
Just very briefly on Tritan, how should we think about this business now? A $500 million business, had tremendous, tremendous success. How should we think about the growth and the margin of this business with the added impetus of the new technology from methanolysis?
Yeah. The new technology, first of all, is going to help us accelerate the recovery from the destocking and the demand that has occurred. You know, what's key to me is also getting back to, you know, restarting, accelerating that, you know, third, investment for the new Tritan line. And on top of that then, as we think about going to, you know, some of these additional applications like medical, personal care, that also offers, you know, the ability, you know, for a different margin set because of the applications and the application development that we can uniquely differentiate and create significant value. So in that case, again, volume and mix upgrade have been core to the advanced materials strategy over the long term, and I think this will be a key component as we go forward.
Is this a billion-dollar business in four or five years, do you think?
I believe it can be.
Very good with that, Willie. I thank you for your time, and thank you, thank you as well for all attending. Thank you.
All right. Thank you.