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Earnings Call: Q4 2015

Feb 23, 2016

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Extra Space Storage Inc. fourth quarter 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. If anyone should require assistance during the program, please press star then zero on your touchtone telephone. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. Jeff Norman, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jeff Norman
Director of Investor Relations, Extra Space Storage

Thank you, Jonathan. Welcome to Extra Space Storage's fourth quarter and year-end 2015 conference call. In addition to our press release, we have furnished unaudited supplemental financial information on our website. Please remember that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by our forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business. These forward-looking statements are qualified by the cautionary statements contained in the company's latest filings with the SEC, which we encourage our listeners to review. Forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today, Wednesday, February 24th, 2016. The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call.

I would now like to turn the call over to Spencer Kirk, Chief Executive Officer.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Hello, everyone. 2015 was a record-breaking year. We executed at a high level and produced outstanding results despite difficult comps. For the fourth quarter, same-store revenue growth was 9.3%. NOI growth was 11.9%. Year-end occupancy was 92.9%, and FFO, as adjusted, grew 28%. This marks 21 consecutive quarters of double-digit increases. We delivered these exceptional same-store operating results while expanding our physical real estate and digital real estate footprints by 24%. In 2015, we added 259 stores to our platform. Our year-end EXR branded store count was 1,347. For the year, we closed on $1.8 billion in acquisitions. Seller expectations are high, and we expect pricing to remain competitive in 2016. However, we are finding accretive acquisitions, including off-market transactions. We are off to a solid start in 2016. I'd now like to turn the time over to Scott.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Spence. Last night, we reported FFO as adjusted of $0.87 per share, meeting the high end of our guidance. Including costs associated with acquisitions and non-cash interest, FFO was $0.38 per share for the quarter. This was below our Q4 guidance due to additional transaction-related costs. We paid $16 million in SmartStop transactional costs, $8 million for SmartStop's investment bankers, and $8 million in severance expenses. These costs were expensed on our books rather than on SmartStop's. In essence, we paid SmartStop's transactional costs with SmartStop's working capital. These costs were included in our original purchase price estimates and had no effect on the transaction on a net-net basis. For the year, FFO as adjusted was $3.13 per share, meeting the high end of our guidance. Including acquisition and non-cash interest costs, FFO was $2.58 per share.

Our same-store revenue growth was driven by higher rates to new and existing customers, increased occupancy, and lower discounts. Our top-performing markets were California, Colorado, and Florida. Our worst-performing markets still grew at 4%-5%, and our platform continues to maximize results. We had a busy quarter on the acquisition front, adding 131 stores for $1.4 billion. The majority of these stores were part of the SmartStop acquisition, which are performing in line with our underwriting expectations. Last night, we provided guidance and annual assumptions for 2016. Our new same-store pool will increase by 61 properties for a total of 564. We expect the change in the same-store pool to positively impact our revenue growth by approximately 50 basis points. For 2016, our acquisition guidance of $600 million refers only to our wholly owned stores. The impact of our JV acquisitions is captured in our equity and earnings.

Our full-year FFO as adjusted is estimated to be $3.65-$3.73 per share. 2016 FFO guidance is $3.57-$3.65 per share. This guidance includes $0.05 of dilution from our 2015 and 2016 certificate of occupancy acquisitions. Our guidance also includes 2015 acquisitions that, as anticipated, will require time to be brought up to our performance standards. Once they are performing at our portfolio average, they should produce an additional $0.10 per share. I'll now turn the time back to Spencer for some closing remarks.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Scott. We expect 2016 to look much like 2015. Demand is steady. New supply, while present, is still muted, and our advantage on the internet continues to grow. However, in 2015, increases in occupancy and reductions in discounts contributed approximately 300 basis points to revenue. This year, we expect occupancy gains of approximately 100 basis points and little to no additional benefit from discount reductions. I congratulate our team on the significant growth and the strong performance in 2015. It has resulted in Extra Space being included in the S&P 500. We are pleased to be recognized as a top-tier REIT and a member of this fine group of companies. Let's turn the time back to Jeff to start the Q&A session.

Jeff Norman
Director of Investor Relations, Extra Space Storage

Thank you, Spencer. In order to ensure we have adequate time to address everyone's questions, I would ask that everyone keep your initial questions brief. If time allows, we will address follow-on questions once everyone has had an opportunity to ask their initial questions. With that, we'll turn it over to Jonathan to start our Q&A.

Operator

Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press star then one on your touchtone telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Our first question comes from the line of Todd Thomas from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your question please.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hi, thanks. Just first question on occupancy. There's a much more muted seasonality impact at the end of the year, only a 30 basis point decrease from the average occupancy in the fourth quarter. I'm assuming that was a pretty conscious effort, but what levers did you pull on to keep occupancy at 92.9% at the end of the year?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

We continued to advertise out there. I think that one of the things we made a conscious effort of is we spent some Pay-per-click dollars as well as maximizing our SEO spend. We continue to try to make sure that we maintain occupancy in the slow season, we're ready to push rates as we move into the busy season.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Are you able to share your occupancy through today and where that was year-over-year, perhaps?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Without giving exact numbers, it hasn't changed significantly.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Just a follow-up then on Houston, with regard to occupancy there, it actually fell rather sharply. It was higher year-over-year, last quarter, but was lower this quarter by 120 basis points, and it's now one of the few markets in the portfolio where occupancy is lower. What's your read on Houston, and are you operating in Houston any differently than you operate in any of your other markets?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Yeah. Houston is overall, Todd, 2% of our total portfolio. This is the beauty of a broadly diversified and geographically dispersed portfolio. Yeah, there is softness in Houston, and we have not done anything differently operationally on our interactive marketing efforts or our revenue management specifically to try and address something that is just part of the economic softness in that part of the country. We're going to continue to do everything we can without being aberrational in our behavior. We've got a platform, we've got a system, and we're letting the system run based on laws of supply and demand.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, thanks. I'll jump back in the queue.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Okay, thanks, Todd.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Toti from BB&T Capital Markets.

David Toti
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Hey, guys. I just have two questions on rent growth. Spencer, I think you mentioned revenue forecast for the year. You're assuming little discount burn-off and about 100 basis points of occupancy. Can you share what your rent assumptions are embedded within that revenue forecast?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

If you look at our revenue forecast, David, the majority of that is actually going to come from rate. You're going to get about 100 basis points from occupancy, and the rest is all rate. We think that we'll continue to be able to push rates in the mid to high single digits, and hopefully, we continue to see strength through the summer months here.

David Toti
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Okay. A follow-up to that question.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Go ahead.

David Toti
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

In assets where you have occupancy in the mid-90s or higher and you have somewhat limited inventory, what's a typical rent strategy in those types of assets? Do you push rent to dislocate tenants to create more inventory? How do you guys approach that situation?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

We push rate as hard as we think is prudent for the market and for the data that we have for a particular property and the unit size codes that are in demand. Part of the beauty of our platform is that data is probably our single most valuable asset, and as you look at 800,000 plus units that we have information on, we're going to push rate as hard as we can. Obviously, we don't want to dislodge customers, but where we have existing customer rate increases being benefited by lofty street rates, yeah, we can get pretty aggressive, both with new customers walking in the door as well as the existing customer, and our system is going to try to optimize the revenue for any particular size code.

David Toti
Analyst, BB&T Capital Markets

Okay, thanks for the detail.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, David.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Metz from UBS. Your question, please.

Speaker 16

Hey, guys. Aman with Ross here. I was just wondering if you could talk about what you're budgeting for SmartStop in 2016 in terms of the revenue growth and how that breaks down between occupancy and rents.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Yeah. We are hoping to have their occupancy be at similar rates to what we have in our occupancy by the end of the rental season or by the end of the summer. You're going to do that first by making sure the rates are relatively low. Overall, for an annual growth rate, it's high single digits.

Speaker 16

Okay. Just on one of the potential JVs you mentioned in the press release, it looks like all those assets are developments in New York you'd buy at CO. I'm just wondering if you could walk us through your thinking there. Thoughts on current supply already underway in the market. In terms of the JV, is your partner, the actual developer or just the financial partner?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

It's actually just a financial partner. It's an institutional partner. It's one we're excited to do more business with, to have more investment with. We like the New York City market. New York City, the boroughs, have low per square foot penetration as far as square feet per population. We're excited to have additional product in a market that has great demographics and high rent per square foot.

Speaker 16

Is there a chance to increase your-

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Jeremy?

Speaker 16

Yep.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

It's Spencer. If I could just provide a little color on JVs. Number 1, JVs help us with the dilution part of the equation on our earnings. Number 2, it increases our return. Then to answer part two of your question, new supply generally throughout the country, I think that's the question you're getting at. It's still muted, and my own personal number is total number of properties delivered, new assets in the United States in 2016, 600.

Speaker 16

Appreciate the color, guys. Thanks.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Jeremy.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of George Hoglund from Jefferies. Your question, please.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Yeah, I was wondering if you could just, one, comment on the expenses in Chicago that were up pretty significantly.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

It's property tax reassessments. Illinois is very aggressive on an annual basis and some of those we will appeal.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Then when you think about the guidance range in terms of what is most likely to push you towards the higher end of the guidance range or what would be the outlier that would push you above the range? What factors do you think are most likely?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I'd give you two items. One would be if property taxes come in lower than we're originally budgeting. We're budgeting them close to 6%. I think it was 5.8% for our budgets on same stores this year. Second of all, if rates hold better than expected through the summer months.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, thanks. I guess just one more. In terms of occupancy, you'd mentioned it earlier that it was about the same or unchanged. Was that versus the year-end or is that on a year-over-year basis?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Versus year-end.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, thanks.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, George.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose from Citigroup. Your question, please.

Smedes Rose
Analyst, Citigroup

Hi. Thanks. You mentioned that some of the acquisitions made in 2015 can drive an additional $0.10 when they get up to your company-wide portfolio metrics. Can you talk about maybe some of the dilution, I guess, that's embedded in your guidance for this year from the 14 or so C of O properties coming online?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Yeah. The dilution is actually primarily from the 2015 and 2016 acquisitions, and you've got about $0.05 in those properties.

Smedes Rose
Analyst, Citigroup

Okay, thanks.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

From a growth perspective, you've got $0.05 from C of O and another $0.10 from properties that we've purchased, considering them to be value-add opportunities.

Smedes Rose
Analyst, Citigroup

Okay. Then could you just remind us, when you are calculating your adjusted FFO, how do you treat the convertible notes in terms of-

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

The non-cash portion we take out as an adjustment, then the other adjustment is the transaction cost for acquisitions. Those are really our only two adjustments.

Smedes Rose
Analyst, Citigroup

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Smedes.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim from SunTrust. Your question, please.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst, SunTrust

Thank you. Could you just give a quick update on where your street rates were this quarter or January, whichever one you prefer, year-over-year? In terms of tying that into your same store revenue guidance, it sounds like 600 basis points comes from rate. Is that pretty equivalent to street rate growth? So to get 600 basis points of revenue growth from rate, does that equal 6% street rate growth for this year?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Yeah. A couple of things just of note here. First of all, they are high single digits year-over-year, December versus last December. Again, that could depend on what you did last December with your rates. We would caution people always to look at it on average. We can continue to raise rates, but then the other thing that's important is what is our actual achieved rate, because everyone doesn't come in and pay street rate. You have some internet specials, things like that. You also need to look at what our achieved rate is versus our street rates. Overall, they continue to grow. Again, as I mentioned earlier, majority of our growth this year is going to come from our rate increases.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst, SunTrust

Okay. I think the high single digit year-over-year increase in street rates in December sounds noticeably better than last December year-over-year. If this holds up as we get into summer leasing season, is it reasonable to expect that year-over-year increase in street rates to be

More than the 8%-ish number that you posted last summer?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

You know what, Ki Bin? It all depends on how our busy season transpires. We're walking into our prime season with a record occupancy, and we're going to push rates as hard as we can. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but I think we're premature to offer any kind of prognostication as to what's going to happen. Give us another 90 or 100 days and let us kind of see how things are starting to transpire, and I think we can add some color. It's too early.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst, SunTrust

Okay, sounds good. Thank you.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Ki Bin.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jana Galan from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your question please.

Jana Galan
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you. Can you provide some detail on where the stores you bought year to date and the acquisitions you're targeting in 2016 are located, whether you're trying to increase scale in the SmartStop markets or just generally for the portfolio-wide?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I would tell you they're more in our core markets. We're not necessarily trying to add in some of the one-off markets where SmartStop is. I think that we're buying them wherever we can buy them and make it at the best pricing possible.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Jana, it's Spencer. The one thing that I would add to this, and I've said this many times, we're not going to get to 3,000 properties by being in Los Angeles and New York. We're going to have a broad national platform, as we've talked about some of these markets that are experiencing a little softness, we also have markets that are performing at levels that are unprecedented. A geographically diversified portfolio is best, and I think a rational strategy of saying, "Look, we can't predict winners and losers over the long haul." Virtually every market will cycle, that I'm aware of. We want to be broadly diversified and geographically dispersed so that we can capitalize on what this self-storage business has to offer, and that is best-in-class performance amongst any real estate class.

Jana Galan
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you, then, just kind of your thoughts on funding the acquisitions and any guidance for dispositions this year.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

First of all, the funding of our acquisitions included in our share count and in our equity estimates. We have about $225 million to fund the $600 million in acquisitions. $225 million of equity or OP unit issuance.

Jana Galan
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Any dispositions?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

In terms of dispositions, we continue to look at the bottom part of our portfolio. Right now, we're looking at $25 million or less in dispositions. We have a few properties listed right now, but it's a small portion.

Jana Galan
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Jenna.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra from Morgan Stanley. Your question please.

Landon
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hey, guys. This is Landon on for Vikram. Just wanted to touch on Chicago. I know it's been sort of one of the weaker markets this year for you guys, and we've heard from some private operators that there's quite a few pockets of supply cropping up there. Is that sort of impacting that market, or on the revenue side, what do you think is driving the weakness?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

There is new supply, Landon, and there are pockets of development around the country. You start to think about parts of Texas, parts of Florida, Chicago, obviously. Yeah, there's some development going on, and it's going to have an impact. Overall, if you look at the entire country, 600 assets, plus or minus, coming online this year is barely keeping up with the population increase of this country in terms of new supply that needs to be added. Back to my earlier comment, being in a bunch of markets with an operating platform that optimizes performance is our strategy, and if one market's up, another one might be down, and Chicago right now is feeling softness, and we're okay with it. It's not what we want, but it's not causing us to have a good night's rest.

We're able to just rest well with a portfolio that's producing outstanding results.

Landon
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Is the weakness there, you think it is largely attributable to new supply?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I would tell you a portion of it's new supply, a portion of it's the overall health of the economy there. I think that there is new supply. It's markets we've seen, probably outsized supply growth.

Landon
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Just more broadly on supply, how quickly do you think that that supply could ramp over the next few years with fairly quick build times in the industry?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

The credit requirements to obtain a loan are tightening. Entitlements are still very, very difficult to get, generally around the country. Although there will be new supply, I still maintain it's likely to be muted, and I don't expect a hockey stick for the aforementioned reasons. I think the operating environment continues to look favorable for the next couple of years. As we progress down the road and we get better clarity, we'll speak to it.

Landon
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Just one last one on the reinsurance income. How much of the increase year-over-year is going to come from higher penetration at SmartStop, and how do you see the penetration at that portfolio sort of trending over the next few years?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I would tell you part of it's going to come from the increase in that, the overall our penetration is low to mid-70s, and it's going to be tough to push it much more than that. You are going to continue to add to our tenant insurance income through acquisition and through addition of management properties primarily.

Landon
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Just remind me, what was SmartStop at when you closed the deal?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I think their penetration wasn't that different. I think it was a little bit more in the rate and kind of what the dollar amounts they were insuring.

Landon
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Hughes from Raymond James. Your question, please.

Jonathan Hughes
Analyst, Raymond James

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Just to touch on Landon's question, I was hoping you could kind of give some similar commentary on maybe the same-store revenue growth in your D.C. portfolio. Is that being impacted by new supply at all or maybe weaker job growth?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

We have not seen outsized growth in new supply in D.C., but I think that it probably has to do more with the overall health there. It was also one of the markets that held up better during the downturn than some of the others. If you look at a 10-year average or a five-year average, I'm not sure it's that different than some of the other markets.

Jonathan Hughes
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. All right. Turning to the CO deals that were added to the pipeline, are most of these projects with developers you've had prior relationships with, or are they new entrants to the storage development market?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Some of them we have had relationships with in the past. I would say none of them are new entrants to self-storage. They're all experienced self-storage developers.

Jonathan Hughes
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. What are the yields on those deals versus stabilized cap rates?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Obviously, when you get into a C of O deal, Jonathan, your yield is zero. What we do is look at the market, and we like to generally see about 150 basis points spread between that new opportunity and what a fully stabilized asset would be trading in that market. It depends. Depends on the market.

Jonathan Hughes
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Then that one- fifty, you mean, has that compressed significantly over the past six months, or is it pretty much stable?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

It's pretty stable over the last six months.

Jonathan Hughes
Analyst, Raymond James

All right, that's it. Thanks, guys.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Burke from Green Street Advisors. Your question please.

Ryan Burke
Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Thank you. Net rents on the properties that you'll roll into the same-store pool this year, about 20% below the average for the 2015 same-store pool. Just curious if you expect to fully close that gap, obviously not in 2016, but over time.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

You're saying the properties that are moving from the non-same store to the same store in 2016, what will we do with I think a portion of that is not just that they're priced below, but also it's a function of what markets they're in.

From our perspective, we're looking at more what the lift is, change between the two same-store pools. In my earlier comments, I mentioned that it was going to add 50 basis points. Part of that is coming from the properties that are below market rents in certain markets. You can't always just look at that because some of them may be in a different market with a lower per square foot rent.

Ryan Burke
Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Okay, thanks.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Ryan.

Ryan Burke
Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Acquisition volume has been strong across the sector. It's been very strong for you so far this year. Is there any evidence that the smaller private operators are starting to become more willing sellers? What's your general outlook for portfolios that may be coming to market?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I think as there's been some cap rate compression over the last few years, Ryan, I think, yeah, there are a number of folks out there that are saying, "I don't know that it's going to get any better than it is today. I probably ought to take a look at selling this single asset or this portfolio." We're obviously out in the market, looking at everything that is out there. I can't tell you that there's any next big SmartStop hanging out there in the wings for us to go capture in 2016. What I can tell you is we're going to participate in the open market and do so in a disciplined fashion.

We're also going to be going after all of the off-market stuff because we've got a wonderful relationship with hundreds of operators, who at this point, may decide or elect to sell, and we'll have to see how the next 10 months play out. We think open market and off market, we're off to a good start, and we expect to have a decent year in 2016. I can't predict another home run hit like SmartStop in 2016 because there isn't anything right now on the table.

Ryan Burke
Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Great. Thank you.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay from RBC Capital Markets. Your question, please.

Wes Golladay
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

First off, congrats on the S&P 500 add. Looking at SmartStop, what is your forecast for expense growth for that portfolio this year?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

In terms of expense growth, we actually didn't model it at all in terms of what they had their expenses at versus ours. We actually just modeled it entirely based on what our expense structure is. We took what our payroll structure is. We took the pro forma property tax adjustments, all of that. I couldn't even comment on what the growth would be in expenses.

Wes Golladay
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Looking at the 600 facilities coming online in 2016, how much of that is competitive for your portfolio? Do you see any markets where supply will meaningfully overwhelm demand?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I think a portion of those are obviously competitive to us. I would tell you that I don't see a single market where it's going to overwhelm demand. I think you are seeing more construction in Texas and in Florida, in Chicago, some of the markets where it's typically and historically a little bit easier to build and get things entitled.

Wes Golladay
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thanks a lot.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Wes.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question at this time, please press star then one on your touchtone telephone. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of George Hoglund from Jefferies. Your question, please.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Yeah, just one additional question. On the past, I guess, few months, have you seen any change in appetite from JV partners in terms of how much they want to buy? Have you seen new JV partners looking to enter into the space?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I would say, George, that for the last two years, there's been a fair amount of interest from various would-be participants wanting to get into self-storage. I think self-storage has proven itself as an excellent investment. Whether it's private equity or institutional investors, there is a lot of demand. There's a lot of inquiry to try and put it into the last 90 days or the last six months, I think, would not be fair. I will just say that we are frequently getting calls, as I'm sure the other major operators are, saying, "Hey, I'd like to participate with you. Can we do something together?" I don't think that that's going to change because storage is a really good asset class. Nothing out of the ordinary in the last quarter or two quarters.

I'd just say there's been a constant level of inquiries and interest expressed over the last couple of years.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, just on cap rates on acquisitions, what are you seeing on stabilized properties for some of the stuff you've been doing year to date?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

We'll typically stabilize a property mid-sixes, but that's not necessarily your forward-looking year one cap. Sometimes we'll take some opportunities to buy a property that maybe has lower occupancy or is in the lease-up phase. I would tell you cap rates are all over, and it's going to be market by market. In the secondary markets, you might get something in the sevens, but if you want to buy something in New York City, you're not going to buy in the sixes even.

George Hoglund
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, thanks.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, George.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your question, please.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yeah, hi. Thanks. In the past, you've said that you would tolerate about 3% FFO dilution from C of O and development deals. In 2016, sounds like you're expecting about $0.15 overall, so $0.05, I think, Scott, you said from C of O deals and $0.10 from development and lease-up deals. That's a little over 4% at the midpoint of guidance, and you're taking up your exposure to C of O deals. Has your tolerance for FFO dilution changed at all? Or is there anything in terms of risk that you're willing to tolerate more at this point?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I'm not sure it's changed at all, Todd. If you look at our 2015 acquisitions, obviously, that's heavily weighted towards one large acquisition. We viewed that as an opportunity, and so we were willing to take a risk on more of a one-time thing there.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Just lastly, taxes associated with the REIT's TRS. The assumption there is about $17 million for the year, so about $0.13 per share. In the past, there have been various initiatives to drive that back down. Any thoughts about reducing that expense? Assuming that the TRS' tax expense does continue to grow, does it cause you to think differently about how you operate the portfolio or run the business in any way?

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

I would tell you, we continue to look for opportunities to save taxes in the TRS. We've done solar. We've looked at making sure that the TRS is paying its fair share in terms of acquisition costs from making sure that they reimburse the REIT for access to these customers. I would tell you our strategy is going to be to continue to be aggressive, but I think there are benefits from having a TRS and having an insurance captive. We'll continue to look for opportunities and ways to maximize our return.

Todd Thomas
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Todd.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Thanks. Good afternoon.

Scott Stubbs
EVP and CFO, Extra Space Storage

Good afternoon.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Spencer, I was just wondering, as we're getting sort of deeper into the economic cycle here and you guys are doing more C of O deals, how do you just sort of think about the risk of the lease-up on the developments? Are you guys sort of changing your underwriting at all or getting more conservative as you kind of analyze these different projects around the country?

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

I would say, Steve, that as we're thinking about C of O deals philosophically, first of all, we have to recognize that historically, or compared to the historical lease-up time, we're running at about one half the time that it takes to fill up a property. There are always outliers on that. For us, whether you're looking at the economic cycle as being steady or even decelerating, what I can tell you is that the life-changing events that cause people to use storage happen in good economies and bad economies, and we are not underwriting anything differently on lease-up in 2016 or even 2017 than what we would say we're doing better than we have historically done. The internet is the game changer that's allowing us to drive more traffic at the proper price point to our properties than we were able to before.

We're going to continually refine that process so that we maximize performance. Maximizing performance is fill it up as fast as you can in an economic fashion to optimize revenue.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Not to put words in your mouth, but if you knew a recession was coming, you really wouldn't do much differently.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

That is correct.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Okay. Thank you.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

See, we never actually changed our underwriting to be more aggressive when things were leasing up faster.

Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Got it. Okay, thanks.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the question and answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Spencer Kirk, CEO.

Spencer Kirk
CEO, Extra Space Storage

We appreciate your interest in Extra Space today, and we'll look forward to the next quarter's call. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.