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Earnings Call: Q1 2017

Apr 19, 2017

Speaker 1

Greetings, and welcome to the Huntington Bankshares First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to your host, Mr. Mark Booth, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you.

You may begin.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Michelle, and welcome. I'm Mark Muth, Director of Investor Relations for Huntington. Copies of the slides we will be reviewing can be found on our IR website at www.huntingtonir.com, or by following the Investor Relations link on www.huntington.com. This call is being recorded and will be available as a rebroadcast starting about 1 hour from the close of the call. Our presenters today are ceased on Chairman, President and CEO and Mac McCullough, Chief Financial Officer Dan Newmayer, our Chief Credit Officer, will also be participating in the Q And A portion of today's call.

As noted on Slide 2, today's discussion, including the Q And A period, will contain forward looking statements. Such statements are based on information and assumptions available at this time, are subject to changes, risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially. We assume no obligation to update such statements. For a complete discussion of risks and uncertainties, please refer to this slide and materials filed with the SEC, including our most recent Forms 10 K, thank you and 8 K filing. Let's get started by turning to Slide 3 and an overview of

Speaker 3

the first quarter financials. Matt? Thanks, Mark, and thanks to everyone joining the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest and support. Let me start by saying that we are very pleased with what we accomplished in the first quarter.

Not only did we deliver solid core financial performance, We've materially completed the FirstMerit Systems conversion and branch consolidations over Presidents' Day weekend. As Steve will discuss later in the call both the systems conversion and branch consolidations went very well and we remain on pace to deliver the expected cost savings and the incremental the achievement of our long term financial goals. As I discuss first quarter results, please keep in mind that all year over year comparisons will benefit the conclusion of FirstMerit as the acquisition closed during the third quarter of 2016. With that in mind, let me dive into the financials. On slide 3, Clayton reported earnings per common share of $0.17 for the first quarter of 2017.

This includes of $0.04 per share of significant items related to the FirstMerit acquisition, which also impacted the financial metrics that I will highlight on this slide. Return on assets was 0.84 percent. Return on common equity was 8.2% and return on tangible common equity was 11.3%. The net interest margin was 3.30 percent, up 19 basis points year over year and 5 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. Tangible book value per share decreased 8 percent from the year ago quarter to $6.55.

Total revenue increased $300,000,000 or 40 percent year over year, which included 45% growth in net interest income, and 29% growth in non interest income. Non interest expense increased to $216,000,000 or 44% year over year. Non interest expense adjusted for the year over year change and significant items increased 149,000,000 or 31% year over year, reflecting the addition of FirstMerit and ongoing investments in technology and our colleagues. Our reported efficiency ratio for the quarter was added 6.7 percentage points to the efficiency ratio. The reconciliation for this number can be found on Slide 16.

Moving on to the balance sheet, average total loans grew 32 percent year over year, while average core deposit growth fully funded loan growth increasing 39% year over year. Credit quality remained strong in the quarter. Consistent prudent credit underwriting is one of Huntington's core principles and our financial results continue to reflect that. Net charge offs were 24 basis points of average loans remaining well low our long term financial goal of 35 to 55 basis points.

Speaker 4

This is

Speaker 3

up from 7 basis points in the year ago quarter but down slightly from 26 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2016. The non performing asset ratio decreased by 34 basis points from a year ago, benefiting in part from the impact of purchase accounting and the acquired portfolio. We managed the bank with an aggregate moderate to low risk appetite and our results illustrate this disciplined focus. Finally, our capital ratios continue to increase modestly As of quarter end, our CET1 ratio was 9.67%, well within our 9% to 10% operating guideline, while our TCE ratio was 7.28 percent.

Speaker 2

Turning to

Speaker 3

Slide 4, let's take a closer look at the income statement. First quarter revenue was up 40% from the year ago quarter, primarily driven by net interest income, which was up 45% reflecting the addition of FirstMerit and disciplined organic loan growth. The net interest margin was 3.30 percent for the 4th quarter, up nineteen basis 0.6 points on the net interest margin in the first quarter compared to 18 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2016. Non interest income increased 29 percent year over year, driven by mortgage, trust services and card and payment processing. Non interest expense increased 44% year over year.

Significant items again impacted both the first quarters of 2017 2016. For the first quarter of 2017, acquisition related expense totaled $73,000,000. Adjusted non interest expense for the first quarter grew 31% from the year ago quarter. For a closer look at the details behind these calculations, please refer to the reconciliations on page 15, of the presentation slides or in the release. We remain on track to achieve the $255,000,000 of annual expense savings that were communicated we announced the FirstMerit acquisition.

In total, we consolidated 110 branches during the first quarter, or roughly 10% of the branch network. We consolidated 101 branches at systems conversion. In addition, as part of our normal periodic review of our distribution network, We consolidated 9 Legacy Huntington branches unrelated to the FirstMerit acquisition during the first quarter. Slide 5 shows the expected pretax net impact of purchase accounting adjustments on an annual forward looking basis. We introduced this slide last fall and believe it is useful in helping you think about purchase accounting accretion going forward.

It is important to note that the purchase accounting accretion estimates on this slide are based on current scheduled accretion. And except for what we actually experienced in the first quarter of 2017, do not include any accelerated accretion from early payoffs in the projected periods. As our results for the past 3 quarters illustrate in reality, we are likely to experience loan modifications and early payoffs resulting in accelerated accretion. Therefore, you're likely to see The accretion revenue in the green bars continue to be pulled forward as modifications and early payoffs occur. Let me also remind you that some of the accelerated accretion may be offset by provision expense as acquired FirstMerit loans renew and we have establish a loan loss reserve in normal course.

As a result, we intend to continue to provide regular updates of this schedule going forward. Until the majority of the purchase accounting accretion has respect to delivering positive operating leverage again in 2017. Of course, we talk about this every quarter and stress how important annual positive operating leverage is to us as a company. In 2016, we enjoyed our 4th consecutive year of positive operating leverage and we are confident that 2017 will be the 5th consecutive year. Turning to Slide 7, let's look at balance sheet trends.

Average earning assets grew 38% from the year ago quarter. This increase was driven primarily by a 57% increase in average securities and a 35% increase in average C and I loans. The increase in average securities reflected the addition of FirstMerit's portfolio, the reinvestment of cash flows, including the proceeds of the auto securitization in the fourth quarter, and additional investments in liquidity coverage ratio the FirstMerit acquisition as well as increases in core middle market, the specialty lending verticals, business banking and auto floor plan. Offsetting some of this growth, we saw large corporate borrowers pay down their bank debt by tapping the debt markets in order to lock in current low rates. Average auto loans increased 14% year over year with the acquired 1.5000000000 FirstMerit portfolio essentially offsetting the impact of the 1,500,000,000 securitization in the 4th quarter.

Average new money yields on our auto originations were 3.54% in the first quarter, up approximately 25 basis points from the prior quarter and up about 50 basis percent year over year as we continue to see strong demand for mortgages across our footprint. Turning attention to the chart, On the right side of Slide 7, average total deposits increased 38% from the year ago quarter, including a 39% increase in average core deposits. Average demand deposits increased 60% year over year. Particularly the increase in low cost DDA. This reflects the addition of FirstMerit's low cost deposit base.

We continue to experience only modest core deposit attrition attrition from the FirstMerit book, limited primarily to some rate sensitive government deposits. Importantly, we are ahead of our original pro form a model with respect to retention of deposit balances. Moving to Slide 8. Our net interest margin was 3.30 for the first quarter, up 19 basis points from the year ago quarter. The increase reflected a 26 basis point increase in earning asset yields and 1 basis point increase in the benefit of non interest bearing deposits balanced against an 8 basis point increase in funding costs.

On a linked quarter basis, the net interest margin increased by 5 basis points, driven by a 10 basis point improvement in earning asset yields and 1 basis point increase in the benefit of non interest bearing deposits. Partially offset by a 6 basis point increase in funding costs. Purchased accounting contributed 16 basis points to the net interest margin in the 1st quarter down from 18 basis points in the 4th quarter. After adjusting for this impact, the core net interest margin was 3.14% compared to 3.07 percent in fourth quarter of 2016. Also adjusted for the impact of purchase accounting.

I would also like to call your attention to the orange line at the bottom of the graph on the left. This shows our cost of deposits which was only 26 basis points for the first quarter. This represents a 2 basis point increase over the year ago quarter clearly illustrating the strong core deposit base we enjoy and our ability to successfully lag deposit pricing. Slide 9 illustrates the continued progress we've made in rebuilding our regulatory capital ratios following the FirstMerit acquisition. CET1 ended the quarter at 9.67 percent, down 6 basis points year over year, but up 9 basis points from the previous quarter.

We have mentioned previously that our operating guideline for CET1 is 9 to 10%. Pangible common equity ended the quarter at 7.28 percent, down 61 basis points year over year, but up 14 basis points linked quarter. Moving to Slide 10, we booked provision expense of $68,000,000 in the first quarter compared to net charge offs of $39,000,000. Net charge offs represented an annualized 24 basis points of average loans and leases, which remains well below our long term target of 35 to 55 basis points. Net charge offs were down 2 basis points from the prior quarter and up 17 basis points from the year ago quarter, which benefited from material commercial real estate coveries.

The higher provision expense was due to several factors, including the migration of FirstMerit loans from the acquired portfolio to the originated portfolio, portfolio growth and transitioning the FirstMerit portfolio to Huntington's Reserve methodology. The allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans increased to 1.14% from 1.10% at year end. And the non accrual loan coverage ratio increased to 190%. Asset quality metrics remained stable in the first quarter. The non performing asset ratio eased 4 basis points to 68 basis points.

The criticized asset ratio increased modestly from 3.62percentto3.72percent. Our 90 day plus delinquencies remained flat. We also experienced lower NPA inflows for the second quarter in a row. With that, let

Speaker 5

me turn the presentation over to Steve. Thanks, Mac. Moving to the economy. Slide 12 illustrates a few key economic indicators for our footprint. The nation during the economic recovery in the last several years, and I remain very bullish on the outlook for the local economies across our eight states.

The bottom left chart illustrates trends in the unemployment rates across our footprint. And as you can see, unemployment rates across the majority of our footprint continue to trend favorably. The charts on the top and bottom right shall coincident and leading economic indicators for the region, want to call particular attention to the bottom chart, which shows the leading indexes for our footprint as of January, which is the most recent data available. This is the chart we look to for insights into expected future growth within our footprint. And as you can see, the chart shows that 70 of our 8 states expect positive economic growth over the next 6 months.

Slide 13 illustrates trends in the unemployment rates for our 10 largest deposit markets. Now many of the large MSAs are footprint remained at or near 15 year lows for unemployment as of the end of February. The labor market in our footprint has proven to be strong in 2016 with several markets such as here in Columbus and in Grand Rapids, where we're at structural full employment. We've noted previously that we're seeing wage inflation in expense base and our customers are too. Housing markets across the footprint are strong displaying home price stability and even increases and remaining while remaining some of the most affordable markets in the U.

S. We continue to see broad based home price appreciation in all of our footprint states. Consumers and businesses like continue to express optimism about a more business friendly environment expected from Washington. This optimism is broad based and shows in our loan pipelines. I know there's been much focus for this quarter on the Federal Reserve H.

H. Data the lack of loan growth acceleration for the sector. For the past several years, we've seen weak performance in the first quarter, followed by building strength over the rest of the year. And based on the acceleration and growth of our pipeline during March, I'm hopeful that this will prove to be the case again in 2017. That said, we continue to see reduced rates to pull through from the pipeline to book loans, restraining our loan growth overall.

Finally, most of our state and local governments continue to operate with surpluses. With that, let's turn to Slide 14 for some closing remarks and important messages. We started the year with good financial performance in the first quarter, but as always, we do not manage the bank around the quarterly earnings cycle. We manage for the long term, and remain focused on delivering consistent through the cycle shareholder returns. This strategy entails reducing short term volatility achieving top tier performance over the long term and maintaining our aggregate moderate to low risk profile throughout.

The integration of FirstMerit continues to progress very well The branch and systems conversion went very well with no widespread issues or challenges. You probably did not have a good sense of just how much work was involved in the in the conversion. So I'd like to share a few statistics. There are more than 1000 colleagues involved, and they converted more than 350 different systems. Over 750 terabytes of data were converted.

We had 24 separate plans for conversion weekend containing more than 17,000 tasks. We had more than 2.30 milestones over the weekend. And finally, we mailed 1,200,000 welcome kits. So it was truly a tremendous amount of hard work and our colleagues on privacy performed it very well. Now with almost all of our technology conversions complete, We are progressing as planned toward realizing our targeted $255,000,000 of annual cost savings from the acquisition with more than 3 Forks already implemented.

We also remain on pace with our revenue enhancement opportunities such as the SBA And Home Lending Expansions in Chicago and Wisconsin and the RV and marine lending expansions, which we've discussed at recent investor conferences. We've previously discussed some of the early wins we had Capital Markets And Insurance by bringing our superior product offerings to legacy FirstMerit customer base. We are delivering the promised financial benefits of the FirstMerit acquisition and believe you can already see the benefits in our underlying fundamentals. We approach the branch conversions with the mantra of retained and grow customer relationships and deposits. And I'm very pleased with our success.

When we announced the transaction, we shared that one of our assumptions and our model called for about 10% deposit runoff, and we're clearly outperforming that assumption. We have invested and will continue to invest in our businesses, particularly with our customer facing teams and in mobile and digital technologies as well as data analytics. Importantly, we plan to continue to manage our expenses appropriately within our revenue outlook. Finally, always like to include a reminder that there's a high level of alignment between the board, management, our employees and our shareholders. The board and our colleagues are collectively the 5th largest shareholder of earnings since.

We have holder retirement requirements on certain shares that are appropriately focused on driving sustained long term performance. We're highly focused on our commitment to being good stewards of shareholders' capital. First quarter is down the book, so it's time to look forward to the remainder of 2017. I'll ask you to note that our expectations for the full year 2017 are unchanged from what we shared with you at year end. We expect total revenue growth in excess of 20% We continue to target positive operating leverage on an annual basis.

We will grow the balance sheet, at the average balance sheet in excess of 20%. We expect to fully implement all the cost savings on the FirstMerit acquisition by the third quarter of 2017. We also expect asset quality metrics to remain near current levels, including net charge offs, remaining below our long term target of 35 to 55 basis points. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Mark so we can get to your questions. Thank you.

Thanks, Steve.

Speaker 2

Operator, we'll now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy of your peers, each person asks only one question and one related follow-up And then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue.

Speaker 1

At this time we'll be conducting a question A confirmation you. Our first question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning. Just a couple of questions related to the merger. First of all, You mentioned Steve 3 quarters of the saves got through. The conversion was in February.

So can you just help us understand, do we see a step down again in 2Q and then also Mac to your prior commentary about that 609 plus amortization by the fourth quarter? Is that also still what you expect by year end?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Ken. So, absolutely, we're still focused on that 609, excluding intangible amortization, and not adjusted for the expense that we need to basically support the improved revenue, which is, but very confident that we're going to achieve that 609 in fourth quarter of 2017. You know, regarding how it plays out from here, keep in mind that there's seasonality as we move through the year. But we're definitely headed towards that 609 in fourth quarter of 2017.

Speaker 6

So Matt, just to follow-up on that then. You mentioned it's ex amortization and ex investment. So how do we think about netting all that together, how much is that investment and how and or is any of that investment not already in the run rate?

Speaker 3

So the investment is coming into the run rate, even as we speak, because of the fact that we're hiring personnel in Chicago, for example, for SBA Lending, Mortgage Banking, those types of activities. I would think about it in terms of your model whatever you assumed for the incremental revenue to put an efficiency ratio against that revenue and build it in that way.

Speaker 6

Okay. And just one quick follow-up. Short term borrowing costs were elevated. You mentioned the release that it was related to liquidity around does any of that roll off and does that help the margin going forward?

Speaker 3

We do have some medium term notes that are rolling off here shortly. And that should be of some assistance to the margin going forward. But clearly, the March rate increase is going to be helpful as well.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Armstrong with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just following up on Ken's question on the margin. Loan yields are up. Maybe, Mack, can you touch

Speaker 3

a little bit

Speaker 7

on What's going on there? Is that just the impact of the December rate increase? And could we see similar type increase from in Q2 from the March hike?

Speaker 3

Yes, thanks, John. So, yeah, clearly, we are seeing the impact of the of the December increase in the first quarter, with the core of margin increasing 7 basis points to 3.14. I think probably 2 basis points of that is day basis. So I'd be thinking more about a 5 basis point increase from a core excluding day basis. And we definitely expect the core margin to expand from here.

You know, purchase accounting is going to be a bit difficult to forecast, which is why we put the slide in the deck to help you do that. We did have $8,000,000 of accelerated accretion in the quarter, above and beyond the normal accretion. And that's why we're going to continue to see that the amortization, be pulled forward and likely helped the margin. But I would continue to look at that accelerated accretion and even some of the normal amortization of being allocated to the reserve. Because as we see the acquired loans move to the organic book for FirstMerit, we've got to provide a reserve for those loans.

Okay. Does that help?

Speaker 7

Yes, that helps. I think what you're saying is there's some moving parts, but this is sustainable and we're likely to see some benefits in Q2. Is that fair?

Speaker 3

Yes, the core margin will expand.

Speaker 7

Yes, okay. Just a quick follow-up on you touched on the deposit costs and I noticed they were up modestly 3 basis points, but anything going on there? Are you seeing any kind of pressure or demands from clients to raise those rates?

Speaker 3

I think we don't see a lot of pressure at this point in time. There are some one off requests that take place. In general, I think liquidity is good in the industry. And I think, maybe some of the lack of asset growth in the first quarter across the industry is helping to take some pressure off of deposit pricing. But we've actually seen less than a 10% deposit beta since the increase in the fed cycle starting in December of 2015.

So we don't think that there's going to be a lot of pressure, around pricing in 2017, at least in the near term.

Speaker 7

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks, John.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Johnny.

Speaker 8

Good morning. On the credit front, we just wanted to get a little bit of color. I saw some movement in the in the past dues and the 30 plus past dues on the commercial side of the shop. And not too concerning just yet, but wanted to see if you could give us some of the color on the C and I side, they're up and CRE looked like it was up a good amount in the 30 plus past dues as well. Thanks.

Speaker 9

Yes. So there is nothing thereof, that is concerning at all. In fact, on the CRE side, that movement was one credit that was just administrative past due, not a payment issue, just wasn't renewed prior to quarter end. So, we are at a very low level of delinquencies overall. So while there is some movement, it's still always in a well controlled range in the CRE.

It's just a, again, one item. So very confident in our delinquency levels.

Speaker 8

Okay. And apologize if I missed any of this, I hopped on late. But in terms of your retail CRE exposure, have you commented on that in terms of sizing and how it looks?

Speaker 9

I haven't, but I will. So we have, you know, we have a certain level of retail exposures. Obviously, we have it both in the C and I space and in the CRE space. So, in CRE, we have about $1,700,000,000 of, exposure that is in secured secured exposure in the retail project type. And then we also have about $600,000,000 in our REIT portfolio.

And the REIT portfolio, obviously, very strong credit profile secured by an unencumbered pool of assets and no credit issues there. And within the REITs, we have about $250,000,000 of regional mall exposure. So again, fairly modest exposure there. A good majority of our exposures in strip centers. So you would have grocery anchored, strip centers and other anchored strip centers.

So those are the local, destinations. And so not a risk profile that we're overly concerned about We do have a list of watch tenants. So we've gone through the entire portfolio and reviewed, any of those customers that have filed bankruptcy or intending to file. And then also another tier where, they've announced store closings, etcetera. And when we go through that entire portfolio and look at the impact of all of those entities, were they to stop paying their rent?

We really have, we've had a couple of downgrades, a handful of downgrades, of no meaningful amount. So we feel very good with where we're standing, in the CRE portfolio. Then on the C and I side, obviously, retail is a very broad category, but when you strip out, auto dealer and those kinds of exposures, which really aren't what we think of as conventional retailers. And if you get down to food and beverage, building materials, nurseries, And then clothing stores, etcetera, we have about a $1,000,000,000 of outstandings. And again, no exposure to any of those entities that have, been in the headlines filing bankruptcy or maybe intending to.

So overall, very confident in our retail exposure.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. That's helpful. Lastly, if I could just ask one more on the credit side on auto. I just wanted to see if I can get a little bit more color out of you in terms of you're seeing when it comes to the decline in used car values, what that could imply in terms of your exposures? And then also your outlook for growth there.

Speaker 9

Sure. I'll answer that and then I'll also give a few reminders of, of, what we've stated before in terms of our portfolio and why we think it's different. So first of all, In terms of the, the used car values, you know, the Manheim Index while moving around a bit is still, quite strong. It doesn't impact us quite as much because as a prime super prime lender, we're focused mainly on probability default, not loss given default. And we've done some stress analysis on our portfolio as we've mentioned before and a fairly significant drop in the Manheim does not impact us any great degree.

So we aren't concerned about the values and then think overall, they're holding up fairly well right now. A reminder, we have consistent FICO, LTV, and term. As you look at the schedules that are included, no movement there. We have no leasing. Again, we're focused on prime and super prime borrowers.

We have no risk layering where we're combining low FICO's with high LTVs and extended terms. And again, we tend to have a little bit more exposure to the used car market, which is much more affordable. And for our customer base. So, and our performance continues to demonstrate the consistency in our origination policies. So, again, very confident in the, in the auto book.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Zerbe with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 10

Just a question on the purchase accounting adjustments. I just want to make sure I understand slide 5, properly versus what you reported. If I if I got the numbers right, I think you reported $36,000,000 of PAA in the NII line this quarter, but for the full year, you're saying 68. Does the 68 include any of the accelerated, or is that just sort of the normal scheduled amortization? Just trying to reconcile the numbers.

Speaker 3

Yes, so the $68,000,000 does include the 1st quarter accelerated.

Speaker 10

Okay. So that would imply roughly $32,000,000 of sort of normal amortization for the next three quarters ex any accelerated?

Speaker 3

Yes, that looks right.

Speaker 10

Okay. Makes sense. And then just one other question on the expenses, just to sort of super, super clarify, the 609 that if we assume that amortization, I don't know, pick a number $13,000,000 for the quarter, I just want to make sure that you weren't I mean, obviously, you exclude any other one time items, but just from an investment standpoint, is the right number to think about sort of including amortization, sort of, that 620, 622 number Or is there, when you report it, is there going to be sort of other investments, other things that are a little more recurring that would take that number higher. Just want to make sure. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, the 609, you would need to add the the amortization too, right? And I think that's close to 14. And then, you know, we should we shouldn't see any recurring our non recurring items related to the FirstMerit acquisition in the fourth quarter. We think we're getting through all those expenses in the third quarter. And then the only other thing you need to think about is the expense associated with the revenue investments that we've spoken about around the FirstMerit acquisition.

Speaker 10

Got it. See, I think that's what I'm more asking about. Let's say you spent 50,000,000 just hypothetically to hire more lenders to build out something, then your number would your expense number would be meaningfully higher than the 609 plus amortization. Want to make sure that we're all thinking about that it's likely to be higher, if that's the right way of looking at it? Because those

Speaker 3

Absolutely the right way to think about it. And keep in mind that as we add those the incremental revenue to associated with those initiatives, things like SBA lending and mortgage banking their commissions and commission expense that comes along with that revenue. Got it.

Speaker 10

And have you guys quantified, just the magnitude of those additional investments?

Speaker 3

No, I think, again, I think the best way to think about it is think about the revenue impact and put an efficiency ratio against it. And I would use that as an adjustment for the model.

Speaker 11

Thanks again.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Ramsey with FBR Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 12

Morning, Bob. Hey, good morning. Hey, good morning. Just on that point, what is the right sort of marginal efficiency rate that you would apply to those incremental revenues?

Speaker 3

I would probably you got to keep in mind that we're ramping up those investments and that activity. There's likely to be a higher efficiency ratio in 2017 versus 2018. And efficiency ratio for those businesses in normal times could be in the 55% range something like that. So again, it's going to be higher in 2017 related to 2018 because of the fact that we're ramping up the investment.

Speaker 12

Fair enough. Shifting gears to talk a little bit about loan growth. I know you guys have said 4% to 6% for the year. Obviously, we seem to be off to kind of a slow start for the year. That does seem to be an industry wide trend.

But I'm just kind of curious how you're thinking about progression of loan growth over the course of the year and what kind of gives you confidence in that 4% to 6% number?

Speaker 5

This is Steve. Bob, we've had pipeline and activity increases late in the first quarter. So as we came into the the quarter, we were in a reasonably good position. But if we think back to what we've seen in the last I think for the last 5 years, second half has been stronger than first half for different reasons each year, but but there's sort of a fluency to the year now or the successive years in terms of activity picking up second quarter and translating into to better performance in the second half. We think that will be the case again this year.

It has been recently. Certainly pipelines would indicate that. And so our best indicators are in that fashion and we We take some confidence in leading economic indicators and other factors, including conversations with customers and potential customers. So reasonably confident, we've got the ability to deliver in that loan growth range of 4% to 6% for the year.

Speaker 11

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Alexopoulos with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 11

Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 3

Good

Speaker 11

morning. Maybe just to follow-up on that in terms of 1st quarter loan growth being seasonally weak and you're optimistic of a pickup. Just about every other bank out there is saying their commercial customers are in wait see mode here, just watching to see what comes out of Washington. Are you not hearing that from your customers, maybe because your market is performing a little better?

Speaker 5

We're clearly seeing a weight and see and I think in the first quarter. And so there's going to be some, continuation of that, but the economic development activity in these different states is very, very strong. There's tremendous foreign direct investment activity in Ohio and Michigan in particular where I'm closer. And I would say it's from what they're telling me, it's like record levels of of inquiry and review. The Midwest still has a manufacturing core.

And so this the conversations around, made in the USA and import tariffs, I think are spurring the level of activity that we should benefit from in our footprint. And the states continue to be reasonably well positioned, certainly well run. Many of the cities are financially doing well. So I think we're, well positioned to enjoy investment, continued investment growth and relative outperformance to some of the other regions in the U. S.

Speaker 11

That's helpful. And maybe for a follow-up question, on the tax rate. Many banks are calling out this quarter new accounting guidance around share based compensation. What was the impact from this in your first quarter?

Speaker 3

We had $2,900,000 associated with that in the first quarter. Yes, thanks Pete.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Marty Mosby with Vining Sparks. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Marty.

Speaker 13

Good morning. So I think there's one thing that you could do on slide 5. Where you're talking about the purchase accounting accretion is that for this quarter, We just talked about earlier, you had $36,000,000. You've got $32,000,000 for the rest of the year. So that seems like a fairly significant step down, which the other 2, the other piece doesn't move.

So that looks like that would have a potentially negative impact when you look at the build of allowance related to the shifting of the loans from accretion, I'll person accounting to the normal loan portfolio, you built your loan loss allowance by $29,000,000 this quarter. So that would offset most of the incremental benefit you got from the early prepayments. Putting that on that slide, would help to net it out in a way that would be, I think, better understanding the bottom line impact. Am I misunderstanding that or is that how that typically is working?

Speaker 3

Marty, I think you're absolutely right. We do see opportunity related to the accelerated accretion to build the reserve because of the fact that those loans moving from acquired to organic need to have the reserve built. Now, of course, there's a process that we go through and determining what the appropriate reserve is. And I wouldn't want to associate it directly with the accelerated accretion. And I think it's also important to keep in mind that there's a Huntington component to this as well.

Associated with loan growth and those types of things. But I get your point and I think, let us see what we can do to better, better associate that.

Speaker 13

Just for instance, it looks like the excess, if you just take the 32 and divide it by 3, it gives you about 11 means you had about $25,000,000 of extra early accretion. And if you look at the allowance build, it was $29,000,000. So a little bit more negative on allowance build, but in line with each other. The other thing is if you look at expenses, Looking at the expense base this particular quarter, there's really two pieces that I felt like we didn't show, we're an unfavorable prices. 1, outside that occupancy and equipment, which are typically kind of related to some of the consolidations you did in the first quarter.

So that could just be timing That was up. Those 3 categories were actually up a little bit for the fourth quarter, which could have been working on the consolidation and eventually rolling down. And then deposit insurance stepped up by $5,000,000 this quarter as well. So just was curious if you could address those 2 issues going forward.

Speaker 3

Yeah. I would say, that the the first item is is just primarily timing of in terms of the activity that we see and the work that we're doing. We did have a small true up in the FDIC of about 1,500,000 So that is a bit of an unusual item in the quarter.

Speaker 13

Perfect. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks, Marty.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Barker with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 10

Good morning, Kevin. Hey, Kevin.

Speaker 14

Good morning. I noticed that the follow-up on some of John's questions regarding the credit outlook noticed that 90 day delinquency in NPAs are trends look okay on a consolidated basis, but the criticized ratio continues to move higher over the last Can you just give us a little bit of color around the trends around the criticized ratio and what you're seeing there?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would say it's it's mixed.

Speaker 9

You know, from quarter to quarter, you're going to see movement of, varying degrees. And, you know, we're starting to get year end statements in now. So that's that's a piece of it. But I think generally speaking, the outlook is very good. I mean, if you look at how it translates into NPAs, NPAs are actually down a fair amount.

Charge offs are well controlled. So we are very much focused on early recognition. So the minute we see any negative development We are very quick to downgrade, but I think the obvious point and what we are pleased with is that it does not roll through. NPAs are are very well controlled. 2 thirds of our, commercial NPAs are current on principal and interest.

I think that points to our conservative stance And again, charge offs very well controlled. So I think the criticized inflow is about the only, credit metric out there that wasn't, improved this quarter. Again, I think it has more to do with, early recognition of any potential problems, which gives us more options in terms of rehabilitating credit etcetera. So no concerns on my end there. I think it speaks more to our, our risk identification.

Speaker 14

Okay. And then in relation to some of your guidance around targeting an efficiency ratio and then looking at our revenue, you talk about the timing on how you see the efficiency ratio peaking in 2017 before it declines back in 2018? Any particular quarter you're looking at where you think the peak will be?

Speaker 3

Kevin, could you repeat?

Speaker 10

Where do you

Speaker 14

see the efficiency ratio peaking in 2017 before it starts to decline in 2018 in regards to your investments in the business?

Speaker 3

Yes, I think, I think we likely see a peak here in the first quarter. There are some seasonally higher expenses in the first quarter. And there is also seasonally lower revenue, especially on the fee side in the first quarter. So I would view, the first quarter as being a bit of a peak. Yes, thanks Kevin.

Speaker 1

Session. Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Elliot with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. A quick one on CCAR, the changes around the qualitative part of the test. What does that mean in practice for Huntington? How are you going to be assessed on the qualitative side?

Going forward? When's that going to happen? And what do you think it means in terms of potential capital returns?

Speaker 3

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Jeff. So, you know, I think, I think we're going to see how this CCAR cycle plays out. Obviously, this is the first time we've gone through with the difference in the qualitative. And I think we just have to understand if that, has a material difference or not as we move through it.

You know, clearly we would, we would feel that we would have more opportunity to think about the dividend opportunity, and, and also, total payout opportunity. And I think we did position ourselves well related to the CCAR cycle with what we did with the balance sheet optimization. In late 2016, picking up about 43 basis points of CET1. So, really, Jeff, I think we have to see how the process plays out.

Speaker 4

And then just switching back to the earlier questions on the retail exposures. I just wanted to check I got the numbers right. So you said $1,700,000,000 of secured retail plus $600,000,000 of of REITs,

Speaker 3

correct,

Speaker 4

within CRE. And that's out of the total 7,100,000,000

Speaker 3

Correct.

Speaker 4

So that just on math is kind of a 32% concentration. So I'm kind of curious, what are the concentration limits that you apply there?

Speaker 9

We don't actually disclose the individual concentration limits we have, we have an overall CRE and then we have a CRE by project type. And we are within all of those limits as it stands today.

Speaker 1

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Steve Steinauer for closing remarks.

Speaker 5

Thank you for joining us today. We're off to a solid start this year. We had good financial performance in the first quarter equally important, we continue to make very significant progress in the integration of FirstMerit. Our colleagues have really rallied together as one team, bringing the best of Huntington to our customers. We're encouraged by the sentiment we're seeing and hearing from our customers and hopeful that thoughtful action in Washington will help bring about more than just optimism.

Our strategies are working. Our execution of both continues to drive good results. We expect to continue to gain market share and growth share of wallet. Finally, I want to close by reiterating that our board and the management team are all long term shareholders. Our top priority remains realizing the full set of opportunities with FirstMerit and growing our core business.

At the same time, we'll continue to manage risks and volatility and drive solid consistent long term performance. So, thank you for your interest in Huntington. We appreciate you joining us today. Have a great day.

Speaker 1

This concludes today's teleconference. May disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

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