All right, why don't we get started? Thanks everybody for joining us for this next presentation. I'm Brian Meredith. I am the insurance analyst here at UBS, and it gives me great pleasure to do a fireside chat here with The Hartford. With us is Chairman and CEO, Chris Swift, and CFO, Beth Costello. I'm going to ask a series of questions to kind of flush out what's going on with the story. But I'm sure as you're all aware, on your table there is a little barcode, I guess, that you can ask a question, and I'll get it in this iPad. So any good zingers for them, please, you know, send them through. They can be anonymous also. And then also a little bit later there'll be a microphone we can pass around as well for questions.
You know, the way I thought we'd kind of start off, Chris, is kind of a big picture one. Let's talk about, you know, Hartford's kind of key strategic priorities for 2024, and then maybe a little bit longer, but 2024 kind of key strategic priorities.
Sure. Well, thank you for inviting Beth and I to be with you here at your conference. As I teased you before, you know, this is a nice fireside, but we should have a beachside-
Yeah.
Session next year. So anyways. So, you know, the strategic orientation of the firm, I would say, is generally going to remain the same. I think if you observe our actions over the last, say, seven, you know, to 10 years, I mean, there was a lot of investing in capabilities to differentiate ourselves in a fairly competitive, you know, landscape. Orientation tends to be more the small to middle-size, you know, enterprises, coupled with, I think, an outstanding group benefits business and a investment in a mutual fund operation. So a lot of the investing that we've done over the years, Brian, I think has helped us tremendously.
If I take that to the next level of activities, you know, really what we're focused on is underwriting excellence, and that has an investing component, too, particularly with our data science, data and analytics. We have a customer orientation, customer experience that comes through our digital capabilities in all our channels. We have a talent, you know, component of retaining and attracting, you know, talent that I think we need for the future as we build out some of these additional capabilities. You know, and then finally, I would say, you know, what we choose to do with our excess capital, I think has been really thoughtful and balanced over the last, you know, seven or eight years.
So as we sit here today, you could say more of the same, underwriting excellence, maybe deeper, you know, product sets into parts of our economy, industry verticals, but I would just say more of the same. And, you know, using all our capabilities, our brand, our great distribution, to better penetrate, particularly in the commercial insurance sector.
Let's, let's, let's stay on that for a little bit. So, I remember a conversation maybe six months ago, talking a little bit about, you know, how Hartford's kind of progressed here with products and acquisitions and stuff. Maybe talk about your competitive positioning today in the commercial insurance market versus, let's say, 10 years ago, right? And, and where can we expect Hartford to be in the next five to 10 years?
Well, I think it's pretty simply just night and day, compared to, you know, 10 years ago, you know, coming out of still the financial, you know, crisis at that time, you know, restructuring the firm, selling things, and then eventually, you know, acquiring, you know, capabilities that I thought would benefit, you know, us. So I'm really proud of where we're at today. It's been a complete, you know, team effort, over that period of time, you know, to put us in the position, you know, these days. But if you really look at it, we're diversifying away from our workers' comp product line, which is industry-leading-
Mm-hmm.
but was a little more concentrated. You heard us talk about property. We've invested in property underwriting skills, risk management tools, you know, other, you know, segmentation tools that allows us, you know, to take on more of that risk. We have an E&S, you know, chassis, you know, coming with, you know, Navigators, primarily focused in the construction area. So we want to, you know, move into other aspects or other industry verticals, you know, even in E&S. You know, if you look at our ability to cross-sell more lines per account, it's getting deeper and deeper, you know, every year. If you look at small commercial, you know, what we've invested in, you know, over the last, you know, 10 years to have the, you know, a digital platform that is just highly, highly automated, $5 billion in premium.
The next, you know, real growth journey there is E&S. E&S, you know, through our binding division or E&S through, you know, direct wholesale interaction, you know, with our small commercial chassis. So... And then you put in group benefits. When we did the Aetna acquisition, we created, you know, the second-largest benefits player at that time. We continue to grow our voluntary product set to you know, to augment and supplement our core life and disability. But I would say that the real strategic orientation in group these days is more about leave management and the administration of all the leaves, you know, that are available to an organization. Plus, the second main strategy is 500 lives less. We need to be more competitive.
There are some good firms out there that are just better us, better at that 500 lives less, and we have some strategies that we'll begin to deploy this year into next, to try to capture more market share there.
H elpful. What about-
Can I just add?
Yeah, go.
I just want to make the point, as Chris said, we've been doing all of that as we look at how we're positioned. And we're also delivering, I, I would say, industry-leading returns. You've seen our ROE progression over that same period, and where we are today. So when you put all of that together, all the things that Chris just said, and delivering the returns that we are delivering, we're just very proud of everything that we're doing.
Makes sense. Maybe another thing too, I'm just curious about, I've been asking companies about, is use of generative AI. Obviously, everybody wants to know about it with NVIDIA and everything going on. You know, where are you at The Hartford? I know you're spending a lot of money on technology and stuff and using it, and what are the kind of good applications for that for the insurance business?
Yeah, I would just take a moment to just remind people in context, right? You know, AI, there's a lot of different definitions of-
Yep.
Of AI. You can argue over the last four or five years, we were doing a lot in the AI area with basic data science models. Basic models that were helping us price, risk, segment, you know, the market a little bit better. You know, basically deliver quotes in small commercial with two or three questions. I mean, that was all powered by data science, which is a form of AI. I think now, what you're talking about is more the generative-
Mm-hmm.
... language, you know, models that are existing, you know, today. And I would say we've done experimentation in a safe and prudent way, internally, not externally. We don't like our secret sauce being spread all over the world, so-
Yeah.
... that's one thing. We probably had maybe three areas of focus that we're moving more into, I would say, a production orientation and trying to get tools developed and embedded in our workflows and processes to augment our human talent. And those three areas would be underwriting, no surprise, claims management. You know, think in terms of claims, what is the next best decision in a workers' comp area?
Mm-hmm.
That involves a lot of medical area. What we have deployed right now is a medical record summarization, so we're able to ingest medical records, and then using ChatGPT to summarize those medical records for at least the claimant, or excuse me, the adjuster to see that. Nothing's embedded in the workflows yet, as far as the next recommended decision, but that will be an evolution over the next couple of years to really start to augment human decision-making. And then finally, I know you love this area, you know, in the software area, in coding. You know, we are finding meaningful opportunities to again contribute to our developer coders' productivity.
Mm-hmm.
I n the range of 15%-25% with using some of the generative tools out there in coding.
Excellent. So let's flip onto kind of a hot topic right now in the commercial lines insurance industry. You know, we're all taking a look at these triangles as we're coming out in the 10-Ks, right? You all have your 10-K that came out, and I had my chance to kind of review it and look at it. I'll be honest with you, it looked pretty good relative to everybody else.
I didn't hear you say that earlier.
Pretty good. Looked pretty good. So you've... Little adverse development on 2016 through 2019, right? Just a little bit. So maybe talk a little bit about the triangles, what's going on there in the 2016 to 2019 years. You know, are we kind of getting closer to the end of kind of the, you know, the potential development here just because of the, the life of the reserve and where we're on paid trends? So maybe talk a little bit kind of where we are, and then any impact that'll have on 2021/2022.
Yeah. How about if we... You want to tag team?
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, I would just start out by saying, yeah, I mean, yeah, the data, particularly in the auto liability and general liability space, was erratic at best during that period of time. I think if you look at over the last eight to 12 quarters, we've had to make adjustments, true-ups. I wouldn't say anything sort of outsized, but just true-ups for some of the trends that, you know, we were seeing. I think the good thing, though, again, mechanically, as you know, Brian, you know, when you make those true-ups, you know, that then rips forward-
Yeah.
... in all your, you know, call it subsequent quarters from a loss cost trend. And that's why we've been so, you know, disciplined over the last eight quarters on, you know, getting rate into the book, particularly in those two lines of business, commercial auto and general liability, and you could say general liability, property liability, umbrella and general liability excess. All those, you know, we need to continue to be very disciplined about keeping up with loss cost trends. And that's why, again, when we talked about 2024 from a high level financial performance side, we commented upon that we are gonna continue to get that high single- to low double-digit rate in most of our liability lines because of the trends that we're observing.
We're gonna continue to push for double digits in property because the reality is, you know, loss cost trends are still elevated, and we're gonna remain disciplined.
Yeah, I think, you know, Chris covered off on it well. I think as you continue to look at our triangles, I don't think you're going to see anything in there that's inconsistent with what we've been saying all year. We're pretty transparent throughout the year-
Mm-hmm.
-about when we take actions and what lines we're strengthening and what lines we're releasing in. And as Chris alluded to, you know, we did, you know, take some modest increases in some of the liability lines, but again, not outsized. And then, as you mentioned, commercial auto has also been an area of focus, some a little bit more in the more recent years. As you know, we did increase our calls on commercial auto for this year and a little bit from last year. And as you know, Chris commented, our focus on that is really then getting rate and again, looking for double-digit rates.
I think we have a good process of evaluating things each quarter, making adjustments, as we see the need, and as Chris commented, making sure then that we're incorporating that into our most recent years, whatever we're seeing on those loss trends, and build that in.
Well, and the simple fact is, I, I came from Naples, where our industry trade group, APCIA, is having its, you know, annual meeting, and we probably have, I don't know, 30% of the agenda, you know, tied towards tort reform-
Yeah.
You know, legal system abuse, you know, trying to, you know, get some, you know, relief into our, you know, liability system these days. It's broken, you know. You know, whether it be lack of disclosures, whether it be third-party capital, you know, coming in to finance, you know, litigation, you know, that is having a compounding effect on jury awards, whether they be outsized, whether they be nuclear, or just a halo effect of pushing up, you know, average awards. So there's a lot that needed to be done. I mean, it's a ground game. I think you've heard me say that.
There's no silver bullet, but state by state, at least through our trade group, and I, and I know many of my, industry competitors, are willing to invest time and energy, and lobby appropriately for the needed adjustments so that we can avoid or limit that tort tax that everyone's paying for.
Gotcha. So, I mean, that was the topic I wanted to talk a little bit about, say, is inflation, and you address a lot of it. And I think I remember Swiss Re was talking about 16%, you know, social inflation per annum over the last five years. That's huge.
Yeah.
Right? And I guess as you pointed out, you know, it's litigation financing, there's other things going on. You know, what can be done about it? I remember back in the early 2000s, the Chamber of Commerce basically went around and tried to kind of win elections, you know, in individual state supreme courts and all those types of things.
Well, I think what could be done, again, it's just a concentrated effort over a longer period of time to get the needed legislative reforms in state by state. That doesn't happen overnight. Again, through our trade group, I think we've targeted, you know, the top 10, you know, states that really do need some real reform, led by Florida here in certain examples. But there's other parts of the country, too, that have judicial systems that are challenged and require reform. I think the best and simplest thing to do is just understanding who's behind all this litigation financing. I mean, it's a simple disclosure, and more and more judges, at least from my perspective, you know, are willing to push plaintiff's bar of asking who's financing, and not just in general terms, but names.
More that I think that gets done, I think you'll begin to see a picture of some strategies that maybe, maybe there's other ways then to fight also.
Gotcha. So the one line of business you talked about that's actually been quite favorable for a long time is workers' comp, right? And it's been a nice, you know, tailwind for the industry. You talked about maybe some pressure here on underlying margins purely because of what's going on with price directions, but it sounds like loss trend is still kind of pretty good. I was looking back. I think, you know, the last time The Hartford actually had adverse development on comp was 2011 through 2013. And maybe, I guess, you know, talk a little bit about, you know, why things are so good in comp, why trends are going the right way, and actually what happened in 2011 through 2013, you know, that, that caused that adverse development, and is that something we should be thinking about?
You really want to go back that far?
Come on, Chris.
You want to take that?
I can go back to 1990s.
Yeah, I know you can. Those were some scars early on-
Yeah.
11 and 12. So what I would say on comp, it still remains a highly profitable line.
Yeah.
You've heard us say that repeatedly. I don't see that changing in 2024. I think it's gonna contribute meaningfully to our overall profitability and ROE. I would say on the components of loss trend, frequencies are behaving, and I expect them to continue to behave into 2024. Your wage indemnity probably is coming down a little bit, so the indemnity payments based on replacing salaries, just there's less pressure from an inflation side. Still will be elevated, but, you know, less so, it's not increasing. And then on the medical, you know, severity side, that's where, you know, a lot of the discussion is occurring. And I would say again, generally going back years, it's behaved and actually outperformed our expectations.
Mm-hmm.
You've heard us say consistently, we price for and reserve for 5% medical inflation. So that's what we, that's what we charge, that's what we put on the balance sheet, and as those reserves season, and we outperform that, that would provide an opportunity for positive prior year development. I would say medical severity is a significant watch area as we sit here today. Still contained within that 5% area, but I think you've heard our tones the last couple quarters. It's ticking up just a little bit.
Yeah. Still below 3%.
Mm-hmm.
But kind of, you know, we have seen some increases. But again, not a thing that gives us concern, 'cause again, we're pricing, we're reserving-
Right.
For a much higher trend, and there's a little bit of trend on trend built into that. So, feel good about that. And I would also say a focus that we have on looking really hard at medical costs and how we adjudicate claims. I mean, part of what Chris was talking about on the investments we've made in medical record ingestion, that's a big deal for us, because we get a lot of medical records. And being able to make sure that we're being charged the right prices based on what the fee schedules are in various states, as well as the networks that we contract with, as well as making sure that we're paying for the workers' comp injury and not other injuries. I mean, all of that goes into making sure we're paying the right claim and a focus on our costs.
Gotcha. Yeah, and those fee schedules are also interesting. I want to get your comment on that. They're like every three years, they kind of roll, right? So that's something we got to keep an eye on, right, is the fee schedules?
I mean, they do have a term to them. I can't tell you as I sit here today exactly-
Right.
... where we're at in that cycle, but, you know, generally, it's a multi-year type, you know, commitment.
Okay.
If you really want to go back to 2010 and 2011?
Yeah.
Yeah. All I would say, those were dark years. Primarily because of the lag effect out of the great financial crisis.
Okay.
I think 2010 and 2011 were comp years that we missed the call on, particularly from a frequency side. Obviously, we made our adjustments and have never looked back and never want to go there again.
Well, I will say we have looked back-
Oh.
to make sure that wouldn't happen again.
Oh, okay.
And a couple of things going on there. So to Chris's point on frequency, you know, if you go back to those years, we did see an uptick in frequency, which sometimes you can see when you're kind of coming out of a recessionary environment. You have a lot of new workers, and we'd also grew in some lines-
Oh, sure.
that attracted a lot of new workers. And we didn't have the same level of diagnostics and reviews that we have today to really be able to see those things, those things happening. So we learned from that. So I think today, The Hartford is a much different company than it was back then.
Gotcha. So let's pivot over to the premium side, revenue side of things a little bit. So you've commented that renewal written pricing in commercial lines, ex-comp, should be pretty consistent with 2023. I thought maybe we'd unpack it a little bit here. You know, how do you think about that kind of rate versus exposure, property versus casualty, large middle market versus small? Kind of, how are you kind of thinking that? What's kind of the components of it here?
Yeah, I think. Well, I know in our fourth quarter call, we tried to qualitatively describe some of those things, so I'll try to be as consistent as possible, where when we talk about exposure and pricing-
Mm-hmm.
... renewal pricing, we had ex-comp about 8.5 points of pricing increase. And generally, you were in a 2.5% range for exposures that contribute to that. So exposures that act as rate was about 2.5 points of that 8.5. So that's one point. I think on the sort of casualty property split, you know, we talked about property being in, you know, the high single- to the low double digits. I still feel good about that. We also talked about property. We closed out written premiums of about $2.5 billion in 2023. We expect to generate $3 billion in written premium in property across our commercial lines, and that property is ex homeowners-
Mm-hmm.
... ex our homeowners book. We talked about, you know, the liability lines, you know, particularly GL, umbrella, and excess, you know, needing, again, high singles to low doubles, more on the low, you know, double digit rate, that we're expecting our underwriters to get. And you put all that together, and we really believe we're gonna stay on top of loss trends with a margin, and that we can, again, produce similar results to last year in 2023, this year, even with, you know, some pressures in workers' comp that we talked about.
Great. That's helpful. Just remind everybody, if you want to ask a question, feel free to do it. I'll give it a couple more questions, and we'll get the mic out here in a second. Actually, a quick one here, for you, Beth. Investment income, you gave your guidance. I think, a lot of people I've talked to are like: "Are you sandbagging it?" Maybe talk a little bit about-
Yeah.
... you know, what went into your NII guidance?
Yeah.
Sounds like a great idea.
So as I said, when I commented on our thoughts on NII for 2024, it was based on where the yield curve was then. Yield curve has come up a bit since then, so we weren't trying to make a prediction on what was gonna happen with the yield curve. So yeah, sitting here today, there's probably a little bit more tailwind there. Probably, rates are probably up 25-30 basis points, so that could, you know, be another five, you know, 5-10 basis points for us. It all depends. So I wasn't trying to sandbag anyone. I was being very clear that it was based on just where things were. A lot of... You know, there's been obviously a lot of movement in rates and spreads.
But yeah, things today are a little bit better than where we were about a month ago.
Okay. Good. Helpful. Sticking on the reserve topic, another thing that, you know, has been talked about and getting some questions on is A&E, right? You know, you did a nice job many years ago buying a nice cover from Berkshire Hathaway. What are your kind of thoughts here going forward? It looks like it's getting close to being exhausted as we look into next year. Is that something you anticipate getting another one? Do you need it?
Do you want to tag team?
Yeah.
I would say, you know, first, who knows really what's going to happen in the future, but based on past trends, you know, we could exhaust that next year. I'll let Beth talk about the accounting, you know, what that, what that means. You know, second-
Next year being this year.
Yeah, this year being 2024. Excuse me. You know, second is, you know, when we did that deal at the end of 2016, I think-
Yep.
December of 2016, sort of the effective date. We were just in a different point in our development, you know, as an organization. You know, we were still restructuring, we were still improving, we were still fixing a lot. And, you know, as we sit here today, it's, it's even totally different, right? Generating 15.8 ROE, you know, for the year. Impressive, at least in, in our humble judgment. And A&E covers aren't cheap. You know, they're expensive. They come with a cost, they come with trade-offs, right? So you got to give up cash, which means then you have a less NII. So Beth and I always, you know, challenge ourselves just to think in terms of what, what's the best economics for us at this point in time?
To date, we haven't done anything, which you conclude that the economics still favor holding that and retaining that for the foreseeable future. But you should know, we're always pushing ourselves to think in terms of, you know, what are our risk mitigation strategies, strategies to put some of this behind us, if that's feasible. And barring that, you know, we're comfortable just running it off over a longer period of time.
Yep, I'd agree. And, and you know, as you pointed out, we have $62 million left on the cover. I always like to make the point, though, not to forget that the way that the accounting works with those, retroactive covers, is we have a pretty big deferred gain sitting on our balance sheet. So when you put the A&E, deferred gain with our Navigators' deferred gain, it's a little under $1 billion pre-tax. That as we get recoveries on that, those treaties, that will bleed into book value over time. So just don't lose sight of, of that. It's a, a pretty sizable deferred gain we have in both of those.
Okay, helpful. On the product side, Prevail. Hearing a lot about it. I thought maybe it'd be helpful to kind of explain to people what are the kind of advantages of Prevail, what it does. And I know it's focused on personal lines. You're, what, 39 states right now? Probably had it delayed a little bit just because of the profitability issues in personal lines, right? So, but still rolling it out. Maybe talk a little bit about the Prevail product, and then also, is it, is it something that could be translated into the small commercial business as well?
Great. Thank you for the question. You know, I describe Prevail, you know, to anyone that'll listen, is both a product and a sort of a chassis.
Yeah.
why I say that, the product orientation comes in from when we renegotiated our AARP contract that we extended for 10 years, I think through the end of 2023. We negotiated-
Thirty-two.
30, 32. Excuse me. We negotiated a six-month policy with no lifetime continuity agreement, which means guaranteed renewable, which was a big product feature in the old product. So the new product doesn't have those features in it. I would say then also from a, just the technology side, we just have better segmentation. We have better data. Our data is more timely as far as, you know, keeping up with, with trend. And all that technology is hosted at Duck Creek, which is a third-party SaaS platform where they host it. It's our instance, it's our version of how we've customized, you know, things. So it's both a technology, a digital capability, and a product capability. Again, all targeted at AARP members on a direct response basis.
Okay.
So again, I think it'll allow us to, again, to be more timely, particularly with six-month policies in auto. The question, though, of, you know, can you apply that approach mentality in small commercial auto? Simple answer is no. We have class plans that both small and middle sort of share.
Gotcha.
Obviously, it's geared towards a business as opposed to a mature market in AARP. But I think your mindset, I give you A for creativity, but it's the sort of same type of things that we're trying to do in Prevail that we are doing successfully in commercial auto. Better segmentation, you know, looking at data more timely, being as aggressive as possible with rate filings. You know, using all the modern technologies that exist today to target customers and keep up with trend.
Great, that's helpful. Something I've been asked about, haven't asked for a while, but I'm going to bring it up, agency personal lines. So, I guess my question in your agency personal line business is, you know, how is the profitability of this business relative to your direct AARP business, where clearly is your crown jewel? And then I, I'm always wonder why you're still involved in the non-AARP agency business, right? It, it personally strikes me as a business you've got to have scale, right? You just don't have scale there. So maybe talk a little about that.
Yeah. I would say non-agency AARP, you should think of that as about a $300 million premium business for us.
Mm-hmm.
So I take your point. It's small, it doesn't move the needle, but it's profitable. I mean, we're making money on, you know, on that, you know, primarily because retention's decent, and we're able to get rate. I think the larger question you're saying is, you know, beyond AARP in a direct response, mature market segment, you know, what are you gonna do? What are you gonna do with personal lines? And, the simple response I would say for you is, the Prevail chassis gives us optionality to think of attacking the marketplace with different distribution and a different segmentation.
Okay.
We're not ready to announce anything yet, but you should think in terms of us studying and thinking of how to use that more modern tool set. Probably still in a preferred market segment, you know, but are there other distribution channels, other means to grow and get a little bit more scale? Because I would admit, you know, at $3.5 billion of premium, we are substandard from a scale side, and I think, again, with better tools, better technology, better risk management, you know, capabilities, we can make a go of it once we decide when and if we want to think differently about personal lines. I think that is all organic. That's an organic orientation. That is not an M&A orientation to deploy capital into the personal line space on an M&A basis.
Okay. Anybody got any questions in the audience? I've got a laundry list more. Okay, I'll keep going. What about capital management priorities going forward? You know, how are you thinking about balancing kind of growth in the business, both organic and inorganic, versus returning capital to shareholders?
You want to take this?
Yeah. I'd say, you know, pretty consistent with how we've been doing it. I think we have a really good balance of being able to make sure that we're providing our businesses with the capital that they need to grow. We've had a lot of growth, and we've been able to fund that. And as we've said in the past, excess capital that we have, we then think about dividends. We've maintained, I think, a very competitive dividend with 10 years in a row of increases. And then, obviously, right now, we're continuing to execute on our share repurchase plans. We see it still as a good use of excess capital. We've said in the past that, you know, M&A, we see as a low priority.
It's not to say that things that maybe would fit nicely within the company that, you know, sort of bolt on, you know, could be attractive if it brings a scale, but it's got to come with very high financial returns and financial hurdles to make that something that we would do.
Okay.
But again, as Chris commented on earlier, when we think about the product suite that we have and the ability for our businesses to compete in their markets, we have everything we need in-house.
Good. That's helpful.
Do you want to add anything? He usually asks me that. I'll ask you that. You want to add anything?
Nope. Perfect.
So another bigger picture I've been trying to ask people. So UBS economists basically looking for a 3.6% nominal GDP, you know, 2024 into 2024. I guess my question is: what are the implications to, call it, that slowing nominal GDP on your business? And do you agree? You might not agree, given, I mean, a lot of corporations think things are better.
Yeah, I think we're in that camp. You know, I think we've talked at year-end, we're still quite constructive and bullish on, you know, the outlook, you know, going forward. I think the context, though, of, you know, GDP, you know, coming down from six, which is hot, to-
Mm-hmm.
... 3.6, which is probably still above long-term trend, pretty decent. So, you know, I still think, you know, we can grow our business both through exposure growth and through taking market share in a healthy, constructive way, where we're not diluting margins. There's always gonna be some micro, you know, dynamics in various, you know, parts of the business. So like, you know, we see construction slowing down a little bit, particularly coming out of our surety business. You know, real estate, you know, construction, whether it be multifamily or single housing, seems to have different arrows at different points in time. But I think that's at the margin, more than any major, you know, cyclical trend that we face over the next 12-18 months.
We're still constructive, and again, a 3.6% GDP growth, I'd take that any day of the week.
Okay, perfect. So you talked briefly earlier, we mentioned the mutual fund business. I'm always kind of curious, what's the strategic benefit of that mutual fund business for The Hartford?
Makes money. It's an investment.
It's an investment.
Gotcha.
So it's, you know, as we've talked about before, it operates by itself. It's not integrated with our other businesses. We really do see it as an investment, provides nice cash flow to the holding company, low capital, high ROE business.
Let's pivot to group benefits. Can you talk a little bit about the competitive environment right now in the group benefits business? We've seen some really, really profitable, you know, margins in that business, and maybe, you know, what we can kind of expect here going forward.
Yeah, you're right. I think it's a great time to be in the benefits business. Mortality is coming back to more normal levels, although it's still elevated from pre-pandemic levels that we talked about and we're addressing with rate. I'm pleased with the rate we're getting into the life book to keep up with a slightly elevated, you know, mortality trend. Disability business has been, you know, fantastic, you know, both from a lower incidence perspective than we initially thought, and getting people back to work in sort of a robust economy. We're getting people back to work quicker. All those trends, I think I see continuing, you know, into 2024.
You know, remember, the guidance that we provide there is long term, particularly given the multi-year guarantees that we provide on some contracts, but I think that the near-term momentum will continue, you know, for that business in 2024. You know, the one area we'd like to be bigger in is, as I mentioned, our supplemental critical illness, hospital indemnity. We're probably up to $250 million-$300 million in premium, and I'd like to double that as quick as we can. It's—I think it's products that actually fit nicely into core medical products. I think they're higher margin products, and again, we have the you know the capabilities and distribution, and you'll see us try to be more thoughtful marketers and sort of penetrating that market.
Gotcha. All right, so we've got about a minute left, so one last question. Could you give me your elevator pitch for why somebody should invest in The Hartford for over the next 12 months?
Yeah, I would say you should invest in The Hartford for the next 12 months because, one, we're gonna generate industry-leading ROEs. We're grabbing market share at highly profitable levels, and, you know, we're committed to continuous improvement and getting better and differentiating ourselves primarily with technology.
That's helpful. Great. Thank you. I really appreciate all this time.
You could use that in your write-up.
I know. I will. That's... I got an associate back taking notes. Thank you.
Thank you for having me.
Thank you.