We're ready? Excellent. Thanks, anybody, for joining us. I'm Brian Meredith. I'm the Property Casualty Insurance Analyst here at UBS. It gives me great pleasure to have The Hartford as our next fireside chat here. We've got Chris Swift, the Chairman and CEO, Beth Costello, the Chief Financial Officer. You know, The Hartford's been one of the best-performing stocks over the last probably 24 months, at least 36 months. Finally got some rerating, which is great. I like to see that. I guess a lot of the questions are, how are you gonna continue to keep doing it, right? Particularly in this current marketplace.
So, I figured the way we kinda start off is, big picture, you know, think tell us about kind of the kind of key strategic priorities for The Hartford in 2026, you know, and over the next couple of years as we're kind of facing maybe a different type of a marketplace.
Great. Well, first, Brian, it's always a pleasure to be with you at your conference here. Beth and I always look forward to that and all our discussions and questions you have. So, you know, I would say if I look out over the next, you know, couple of years, there's probably three or four or five things, you know, that we're really focused on. You know, I would say one, you just mentioned it, you know, we're gonna continue to invest in our capabilities, primarily tech-enabled, AI-enabled, you know, to better the customer experience and ultimately to augment human talent. I would say the second, you know, priority for us, and it's been a consistent priority over the last couple of years, is, you know, we wanna be a bigger property underwriter.
Even in the face of softening property prices, you know, we still think the starting point is good. You know, the returns are great. You know, we have about $3.3 billion of property underwritings across all our business units. And you know, I still think we could grow that double digits, you know, into 2026. I would say then the third area is agency Prevail. I think we talked about it in our earnings call. We're planning on being in 30 states with our Prevail agency chassis, you know, by early 2027. We see good growth opportunities there. And really, it's again part of the extension of our strategy of trying to do more business with all our agents and brokers.
Mm-hmm.
Which really means supplying them with product capabilities, underwriting appetite, you know, that we've built or acquired over the years. And I'm really pleased where we're at today. But, property, you know, for agency, particularly home and auto, I think is an important segment, you know, for the, you know, the U.S. population. It's a preferred market we would target. I would say the other sort of business-related growth item is employee benefits. You know, we enjoy a top three market position. We're known more as a national carrier. And we wanna defend that, you know, area and obviously grow it. And one of the key strategies there is to fill out all our absence capabilities, whether it be paid family leave, medical leave, supplemental products, you know, into that channel.
So that's, it's a growth and defensive, you know, type strategy. And then, you know, the new offensive, you know, strategy, if you could characterize it as that, is employers below 500 lives, you know, where we need, really a dental and vision capability. We need more supplemental, you know, capabilities. We needed a little more technology-enabled in that smaller end of the market. And we found it. We found it with a partner. You know, we're live, you know, with a dental and vision capabilities coupled with all our core products, including then, you know, supplemental health. So I feel really good about where, you know, that, you know, business is today. And I would say that's probably the.
Mm-hmm.
The good top four.
Terrific. That's great. So, you know, the first one you identified and you talked about was, you know, continue to invest in the business. AI, that's obviously a really, really hot topic right now. So maybe we can first start on that topic with, you know, where are you investing? Where have you been investing over the last couple of years? I know that you're probably a little bit ahead of the curve with respect to the industry, I think, as far as your investments you're making. Obviously had some success at it. So maybe talk about where the investments are, you know, what areas of business? Is it efficiencies? Is it data science? And then the second thing maybe you can sorry, long-winded question. You can throw into that is.
No, we're used to it. Don't worry.
Yeah. Good. It's a long-winded question. But, KPIs, you know, I'm sitting here as an investor and analyst, and everybody loves to talk about all these wonderful AI capabilities and stuff. But how do we know what the ROI is on this? How do we, how should we think of it as investors?
Yeah. I mean, how much time do we have? So I would, you know, start by always reminding people where we came from and where we are today. I think you know well, you know, we've been on a journey to modernize our platforms for at least the last 10, 12 years. I think that foundational element is pretty key to what I think is the next phase of where technology is going. So, you know, whether it be, you know, claim platforms, administrative platforms, whether it be, cloud-based or on-prem, I think we have a pretty good foundation, you know, to grow from here. We've been working hard on organizing our data, you know, and feel that, you know, there's probably a little more work to be done primarily here in 2026.
But you put it all together, we could go faster now in the AI area because if you know anything about AI, it's really fueled by data.
Mm-hmm.
You know, whether it be the internet data, your own data, you know, customer-centric, you know, industries. You know, so you need to have your own data organized to, you know, interplay with large language models or small language models. So I would say from there, you know, we think in terms of two main bodies of work in the organization. Some of it, you could call it personal productivity tools. And then you would call it reinventing workflows on an end-to-end basis throughout most of the organization to basically, you know, have that better experience. I think our primary goal in all this work, though, is to augment human talent. We're not trying to take it out. And actually, it needs to be in the loop from a governance side.
And then ultimately have a better customer experience, faster, less friction, less friction, more intuitive. And I would put the agents and brokers into that customer category because they're advising, you know, the customers on, on the end product. So that's sort of the, the premise. And then the personal productivity tools, you could think of Microsoft, you know, Copilot. You could think of Notebook by, by, you know, Google. You know, we've, we've, I think, trained and licensed over 6,000 people in our organization to start to use those productivity tools in their own daily work.
Mm-hmm.
You know, that, that's not industrial strength, but it is providing a lift to people, I think, you know, quite a bit. From there then, when we say the end-to-end and sort of reinventing, you know, workflows with an AI-first mindset, that's primarily centered in underwriting, operations, and claims.
Mm-hmm.
I think you've heard me say before, I'm not gonna go into too many details because, you know, we think what we're doing is pretty cool. And you wanna have an element of confidentiality with it. But I would just say, you know, look, we're not trying to replace underwriters. This really isn't an expense play. I think a lot of the things that I just said for the end-to-end, it is really a growth, a customer retention, orientation. And then, you know, obviously, there will be some levels of productivity and leverage, you know, that comes with as we grow. You know, we just need less people to support our businesses. But we're not in a mindset of, you know, having mass layoffs. We talk to our employees, you know, very clearly and adult-like as far as what we're trying to achieve.
We'll keep them posted. But those are the dimensions of how we're going about it. We're going about it by business unit, by product line, in a method, in an organized fashion, probably over the next three years. I mean, this isn't something you're just gonna snap in. Some of this is working with Google as our preferred partner in this particular area, building out, you know, the AI tools specific to our workflows and operations.
That's.
I think on your question on KPIs because that's come up a lot.
Yeah. Yeah.
You know, as Chris described it, it really is focused on all aspects of our business. So it's hard to say a particular KPI that will say, "Okay, that's where the AI benefit shows up." It's really kind of across the value chain. So we believe that over time, it's gonna show up, from growth rate perspective on the top line and what we're able to achieve there. There definitely should be some productivity that we would see from, just operating leverage. There's also gonna be a component that will impact how we think about our loss costs, both from the standpoint of if we can be better selectors of risk, obviously, that will have an impact. But then also just the productivity that we'll see from the claims area as well. So it's not as if it's one particular KPI.
We really see it as impacting kind of all aspects of our business, over time.
I think the early evidence, particularly in small and middle, is quite encouraging.
Mm-hmm.
Particularly with, you know, growth rates and opportunities. And those are, you know, particularly in small, it's a business we've invested in heavily, you know, particularly in data science, you know, the digital, the customer experience. So it's not a stretch to add on a little more true AI activities to that business unit today. But I would tell you, we're using middle and large as the test case for the organization in underwriting.
Interesting. Yeah. What do you think?
We think there's more, actually more opportunities because it's pretty self-evident. You know, we talk about 75% of all our small business customer, new business is processed on the glass today.
Right.
So that's years of investment in technology. That's years of investment in data, segmentation, everything you need to be able to do that and produce the margins that we do. We think the real step change is more in the middle market, you know? And that's why we've started there with heavy investments.
Gotcha. I mean, have you seen it, you know, in number of submissions that underwriters can handle all those types of things? That's what, you know, we're hearing a lot in the industry.
That's part of the goal orientation we have. So we do have some KPIs that will go undisclosed today to you, that try to capture, you know, what we think is real. And, and some of this is, you know, this is brand new stuff. So we're, we're making our best estimates based on early test cases and activities that we went, you know, that we tried out 18 months ago. So as we roll it around to more product lines, completely, you know, to the organization, all parts of the country, we should see a lift.
We should see a lift.
But as you know, Chris said, you can look at what we've achieved in small business. And you know, we're kind of leveraging some of those learnings as we bring it to you know, middle and large and so forth. And you know, we've talked about this many times. In our small business division, you know, over 75% of quotes are on the glass, no human touch. And that business unit has a goal of increasing that metric. But I think it just shows the leverage that can be created and how you can get you know, more submissions per underwriter and so forth as you know, kind of think about that moving up kind of within our other business units.
I think the other, you know, area that I'd just talk a little bit about is, you know, claims, right? Some.
Yeah.
People think, you know, you know, claims pretty mundane. But obviously, from a customer side, claims are very important because that's usually some of the first times customers really interact with us. So you gotta get that right. But also, our two largest product lines, both workers' compensation and disability, involve medical records. You know, how people are injured or how people are disabled, and the treatments they seek, or the treatments that are directed by a carrier to get someone back healthy are all summarized in medical records. So we've been able to ingest medical records into an AI capability that, you know, summarizes pages and pages. Like, you can have medical records that are thousand pages.
Mm-hmm.
You know, two hours later, you would have something summarized, you know, for a claim person to begin to get their arms around, you know, what is a covered event, what is a non-covered event, and then begin to think in terms of what is the, you know, best, next best step that the claim person would recommend to a medical officer. So again, real tangible lift, you know, because when instead of reading a file for two weeks, two hours later, you could start to actually interact and try to get, you know, someone back to work sooner, which cuts down on lost time. Hopefully, it cuts down on, on medical expenses too.
That's, that's interesting. You know, so, you know, all of this AI costs money. And it, you know, takes time. And it takes data, right? So I'm curious your perspective on what this could mean for the industry over the next, let's call it, five-10 years.
Well, you're right. I mean, your premise is it's not just a snap-in. I mean, it's sustained investment, you know, for at least, in my judgment, three years. So, you know, we have our three-year roadmap, you know, that we've allocated capital to, you know, various activities, invest capital, and feel good about what we could do with that, you know, allocation of invest capital, still within a balance of expense ratios and ROEs, everything we still wanna try to, you know, try to achieve. And then there's just a bandwidth issue too. I mean, we always challenge ourselves if we had more money, you know, can we do it? And a lot of times, it just comes back to bandwidth.
And you can't, you know, have six-10 major projects going on in your operation and, you know, expect to execute it well. So we have some natural limits we put on ourselves. And it's just not, you know, financial. So then if you play this out, again, at least according to at least the vision that I have, I think there are gonna be a have and a have-not category. And, we're gonna be in the have category for sure.
Yep.
I think that will allow us to continue to grow at above market rates, capture more market share, endear our agents and brokers to us even more because we're doing more with them. They're making, you know, theoretically, more money, particularly from contingent commissions and profit commissions. So it's a decent picture for those that.
Yep.
Invest. And those that don't, I think it'll be a slow, my words, you know, consolidation. It's sort of like the life insurance industry I said on our earnings call. If you look back over the last, you know, 20, 30 years, the top 20 control about 80% of the flows.
Yep.
That's X, you know, the benefits, you know, business. So, and, and really, you didn't have a lot of life company consolidation, you know, that happened. And you might have had some old books and carve out things. But, you know, from the main platforms, I think they've been, you know, performing well. And, and I think our P&C industry probably could use a little bit of that because I think there'll be a little better discipline then for shareholders. I, I think, there's more predictability, more relevancy, better growth rates, more integration with agents and brokers. So yeah, three-four years from now, I think it could be a positive environment for those that really embrace it.
Great. That's helpful. Let's pivot over to the commercial lines pricing environment, right? And what's been going on? It's a topic I'm getting a lot of questions on. So if we look at your, you know, renewal written price increases, right, ex-comp, what, up 6.1% in Commercial Lines. That moderated from 7.3% in the third quarter. And it's the lowest actually it's been since the first quarter of 2021, right, when we've, you know, things obviously got a little better there. So maybe talk a little bit about, you know, where you see the pricing environment heading into 2026. And as investors, what should we be thinking about and prepared for?
Yeah. I don't wanna just reprise what we said on the earnings call. So but I would, you know, point out, you know, pricing is a function of what you view your loss cost to be and what you're trying to execute to within a competitive, you know, market situation. And that's why we, I think we talked about as far as, you know, where we see trend in an aggregate, you know, portfolio basis compared to 6/1. Loss trend is probably, you know, a couple tenths of a point.
Mm-hmm.
3.4, 0.5, you know, higher than that. So that's one, you know, reference point. So the second reference point that I will repeat is, you know, we have, you know, open dialogue with our underwriters across, you know, the organization working through, you know, our team structure. And we're asking them to hold on to margins the best way they can.
Okay.
Third, outside of, you know, property is probably the area that is softening the fastest. But I would also say that 60% of our property book is in small and middle.
Okay.
Which is tending to hold up just a little bit better. You know, I would say then at the highest levels, everything else, particularly liability, remains robust because trends are in the high single digits, you know, for liability.
Mm-hmm.
Whether it be commercial auto, whether it be primary, whether it be GL, Excess, umbrella, you put it all together. And, you know, that's still a hard market because the views of loss trends.
Right.
So, I don't know if I answered your question, you know, completely. But I still feel like it is a good time to be a P&C carrier. I think there's many opportunities. I think the starting point matters. And it's still relatively healthy.
Mm-hmm.
There's not one cycle that I feel right now. I think there's micro cycles in comp, property, liability. Then you could put all the specialties, including E&O and D&O, together in there. You could put London in there. There's really four micro environments that you really gotta track and manage.
Yeah. Let's just go back to the back. I mean, one of your key priorities you said is growing the property business, right? But you just said that's one of the most competitive marketplaces. How are you navigating that kind of desire to kind of grow market share then in a more competitive market? It's a specific area. You're like, "Listen, returns are great. It's fine." 5%-10% lower.
Yeah. I would say, you know, again, that's why I gave you the point. 60% of our book is in small to middle. That's the focus.
Okay. Good. Not large.
Yeah. You'll see us pulling back in E&S.
Yeah.
See us pulling back in large. We're really not a big shared and layered player.
Yeah.
So it's really in our sweet spot, you know, that again, we could build a diversified national book, you know, with our great distribution. We could take on incrementally minor, you know, catastrophe risk or incremental casualty, excuse me, catastrophe risk. But, you know, we're really going after the fire perils more than anything in the strategy.
Makes a lot of sense. Another one, just pivot to, you know, on that topic of the cycle, you're the industry leader in small Commercial Lines. So maybe you can kind of talk to us a little bit about how that line typically kind of goes through the cycles, right? You know, is it as volatile? You know, how should we think about pricing in that line, margins in that line as we kind of think about this over the next as we head into a softening market?
Yeah. I, again, I'm gonna, you know, break it down and bifurcate it by, you know, some of the categories I just, you know, gave.
Yeah.
You know, the big product line in small is comp.
Yep.
Comp has its own cycle that, you know, we've talked about. We probably face, whether it be in small or middle, just a little headwind pressure. But severities, medical severities are, are behaving. You know, we're not getting a lot of rate. Frequencies are, are still negative or positive.
Mm-hmm.
Depending on how you wanna view negative, which is a positive. So, you know, we see, just an element of consistency there, but just maybe slight headwinds. And then our BOP, you know, second biggest product, is both the, you know, the property component and the liability component. I think what you're seeing in some of your questions is the property component of BOP is actually slowing down because we're rate adequate now.
Yep.
On a national book basis. That wasn't the case, you know, over the last two years. We had to work hard to get rate into the book, you know, particularly in California and some of the western states. You know, we, we have done that. And then I think what you'll still come through is that overall elevated liability trend, you know, that we're gonna stay on, on top of, you know, from, from a pricing side. Commercial auto, you know, we, we are selective there. But that's been a, a growing book, you know, for us, over the last, you know, couple of years. Again, trend there is probably high, high single digits, low double digits. And, you know, we need to keep up with that, that trend. And then I would say E&S binding is sort of the other, you know, category that, you know, we talk about.
I just wanna make sure we don't confuse numbers. E&S binding, again, is composed of both a property book and a liability book.
Okay.
Could be individual or can be combined. That overall book of liability and property and E&S binding in small is about $425 million at the end of this year.
Okay.
Sometimes when I talk in earnings calls about binding, I'm really reflected in, you know, the property component.
Yep.
Which is about $300 million at the end of the year. And then we still think we could grow that in the, you know, 10% range next year too, both the liability component and the property component. So we still like, you know, the binding business. We've got great partners that know our risk appetite and sort of adhere to, our rules of the road. And, I think we've been able to, you know, grow that with strong profitability.
Great. That's helpful.
I think the other thing I'll just add, you know, as it relates to small business, I mean, we do talk about this a lot that, you know, a key focus of how we manage that book, is we want ease, speed, and accuracy. And that has been over multi-years. And we've talked about before that you, you know, we have been sub-90 on an underlying basis in small business for many, many, many years.
Yeah.
That's indicative of just how the team is operating, how they think about it. You know, definitely wanna manage that book in such a way that we're, you know, always trying to keep up with loss trend so that we're not putting, you know, big increases or big decreases into the marketplace. You kinda just want that to be steady. And that, I think, is a big part of why we're able to achieve what we do, in that area of the market.
Gotcha. On the topic of the MGAs, you know, delegated authority, you know, I mean, I've been doing this for 30 years. You know, MGA was a bad word for a long time, right, particularly when it came to the carriers just 'cause you see the conflict of interest, and they wanna grow in a soft market. Are we different today? How do you manage that? How do you think about that as we are heading into a softening market?
No, you still got it right. I mean, there's a lot to worry about, a lot to, you know, think about from a risk side. I would say from a pure MGA side, we're, it's not that big for us. I'm making a little distinction on the binding business because we actually set the risk appetite.
Okay.
Someone executes that to us. MGAs are usually a little different. They usually want more flexibility to, you know, to grow. You know, they have usually third-party capital and usually a claims TPA, which we just don't think is a is a value proposition for us in what we stand for. I think you've heard me, Brian.
Yep.
I get a little strong in our views here. I mean, we're underwriters. We pay claims, and we manage our investments. Anything that comes close to sort of disintermediating that, we're not gonna have the best reaction.
Makes sense. I just wanna remind anybody, if you got a question, two ways to do it. We can, just I guess on your, computers, you can log one in. We'll also have a microphone if anybody's got a question. I've got a lot of them. But anybody in the room right now? Nope. Keep going. So another thing that I think, it's been interesting with The Hartford over the last 10 years has been following you. And, you know, one thing that's been really interesting to me is just the fact that, you know, if I look at your written premium growth in your Commercial Lines business, you know, it's exceeded peers by more than 100 basis points, you know, over the last four years.
So really, really strong growth while maintaining that, you know, terrific profitability. Maybe you can talk about how The Hartford's competitive positioning has been changed over the last five-10 years and what you put you in that great position to continue to drive, industry-leading growth.
Do you want to tag team?
Yeah, go.
You know, so I would say it's not one thing. It's probably a multitude of things. So, I mean, if you look at the heart of it, I think, you know, the biggest change that we've made is, you know, we've added more product, you know, capabilities, expanded our underwriting appetite, added E&S, you know, capabilities, and broader specialty capabilities. Some of that was organic. Some of it was, you know, M&A. Second, you know, even sort of the depths of the crisis, I would say that our agency force just remained very loyal. You know, when I joined The Hartford in March 2010, you know, we felt firsthand, you know, their loyalty, but they're also nervous.
Yeah.
At that time, which was obvious. So again, you know, deep, deep, you know, relationships, you know, where they, you know, like, you know, doing business with us. They want to do more business with us 'cause they're incented to. And I think through, again, a lot of team effort, across the entire organization, I mean, we put ourselves in a position today where we have more to offer. We could cross-sell. We have a one Hartford mindset where we're representing all the business insurance units out in the marketplace, with focus on the segments, you know, within, you know, BI. You know, we've added bulk in our group benefits, you know, business, you know, with the acquisition of Aetna. We've done, you know, other, you know, small little, you know, things along the way.
But at the core, you know, we reinvented our product capabilities, our risk appetite, and renewed our distribution relationships. And again, it didn't happen overnight. But, again, with sustained effort and commitment from the team, and a great attitude and a great culture, voilà, here we are.
That's great. I wanna pivot back also to one of the initial things you said about, you know, investing in Prevail and kinda growing your personal lines. And this is something that we've had discussions with over the years. So, I'm just kinda curious, maybe, you know, talk about growing your personal lines presence in the independent agency system. And on that topic, maybe in the perspective that, you know, this is a really competitive marketplace. There are some amazing providers out there already with very low expense ratios that do it really, really well. How are you going to find your place in an independent agency market?
Well, you know, again, that's the great question. It's, it's the question we work hard every day to make sure we're relevant, particularly as we roll out new states, right? We're in about 10 states right now. We'll be in 30 early 2027. So I'm asking for a little grace. Let's see how we do.
Okay.
But as primarily an agency company in all our product lines, particularly in small and middle, it's not a leap of faith that our agents that are close to us that do business in those lines would also wanna do business with us in personal lines, principally because they lead with a home product where we have capacity. We have, obviously, we worked hard on a Prevail product, which is both home and auto. So we I think we have better roof scores. We have better imagery we use. We have better, you know, underwriting tools, catastrophe management, you know, tools. So again, you put all that we do have done from the product side together with loyal distribution that leads with home, and we have capacity to deliver it.
Mm-hmm.
It's pretty good. And then we'll account round and bundle with auto. So we still want an auto capability in agency. But again, I think there's probably 100-150 national agents or regional agents, you know, that wanna turn us on in their system.
Interesting. Okay.
Just give us a little grace.
Okay.
When we're back here next time, you could,
Okay.
You could really test us.
All right. Will do. I promise that. So on the topic of personal lines, you know, we're hearing some, you know, pushback, or media news and stuff about regulators, putting in excess profit legislation, all sorts of things, you know, as becoming a consumer affordability issue. Curious kind of how you see this playing out, you know, within the industry. And, you know, how does The Hartford think about it? You know, number one. And then the second thing I think about with your small commercial business, is this an area that they could potentially spill over into?
Yeah. So I have a lot of empathy for all of us as consumers of insurance products, but particularly personal lines. I mean, costs have been up.
Yep.
The cost of the product is up. But I think sometimes when you get into the economic political discussions, things don't really get talked about very clearly because, as I said, you know, price is the afterthought for the predicate of what is your loss trends. And it's certainly true in personal lines too, you know, whether it be auto inflationary, you know, used car price, whether it be catastrophe, you know, events, whether it be flood, you know, that is obviously a separate, you know, policy. But there's a lot that goes into the equation. But again, the bottom line, you know, the customers feel it. And the politicians are trying to be thoughtful.
We as an industry, I could speak for our trade group that, you know, tries to educate people is, I mean, there's education that needs to be more clearly, you know, understood. So again, there's a lot of inflationary pressure in a lot of our products, whether it be economic, whether it be social inflation and some of the things that we've been talking about, you know, for a longer period of time. But it's gotten to the point where I think it's on everyone's mind because everyone's feeling it more and more. My only hope is 'cause you had a great case study both in Florida and California of what not to do.
Let's not make mistakes in the other 48 states of what not to do in trying to control price because the regulator's job in the insurance industry is to have affordable product and available product. That did not happen in California.
Yep.
There was a lot of commotion in Florida here until Governor DeSantis, you know, really reformed the industry in a lot of these dimensions that was creating inflationary pressure. So I hope others have taken the lesson from a couple of big states of what not to do and then how to fix it, you know, in real terms.
Gotcha. Thanks. That's helpful. Let's talk pivot over to your group benefits business, something that I think probably doesn't get talked about, you know, enough with The Hartford. It's got a pretty good, you know, had earned great earnings over, over many, many years. Maybe you can talk about, you know, you've got this guidance you're always giving us, you know, about what your after-tax margin should be. You're consistently beating it, right? Maybe talk a little bit about why you're consistently beating it, and, you know, why it's gonna go back to the target margins.
Well, I thank you for acknowledging that, you know, the benefits business is a fit for us, strategically and for two primary reasons. One, it's an underwriting business. It's a mortality and morbidity underwriting business. And secondly, you've heard me talk at least three occasions of how important our distribution partner is to us. All our distribution partners have a benefits business.
Oh, okay.
Whether it be medical or whether it be sort of our core products. And it's very complementary. And it's and in fact, we try to do more and more. And, we haven't found the secret sauce yet for, you know, true cross-selling, but from a relationship side.
Mm-hmm.
It helps represent one another in the marketplace. Full stop. Six-seven is our long-term guidance. We've worked hard to outperform it. Can't predict what's gonna happen, you know, in the future. But I would say being responsive to your question is, at least in my view, Beth, we've outperformed our incidents assumptions. And we continue to have stronger recoveries, meaning getting people back to work in a more timely fashion.
Mm-hmm.
You know, than our six-seven calibration model is today. If that continues, great.
That's great. On that topic, I wanna pivot back a little bit to the AI discussion. And, you know, one of the things I think about too and heard talked about is, yeah, there's all sorts of benefits to the insurance, you know, industry. But what are the risks here that we should be thinking about both in the commercial P&C personal lines as well as group benefits business that, you know, new emerging risks that could happen as a result of AI? And how are you thinking about that?
Yeah. It's clearly a watch area for our team and our emerging, you know, risk group, part of our overall, you know, risk management group. You know, I think there's parallels to other industries and other activities, you know, that we sort of collab try to triangulate, you know, impacts. But all I could say, it's an emerging area.
Mm-hmm.
I'm not here to sort of cry wolf and, you know, sky's falling. But you gotta be thoughtful. We look at and remember, the underwriting leader reports to Beth, you know, from a segregation of duties perspective. So we've got a lot of trust and confidence in Mo and all the underwriters. But we split that up to really sort of test theory, test words, terms, and conditions in policies, and make sure we're regularly refreshing our views of what are acceptable terms and conditions. And that's how we manage it. But I'm not gonna try to predict what could go wrong with AI because we've seen it. And I could tell you just, you know, personally, you know, we spend a lot of time out in Silicon Valley with our senior team every year.
This year, we went to Google's campus for two days. Beth and I had the opportunity to drive in a Waymo.
Yep.
It was like Nirvana.
Wow.
I was in the backseat. Beth was in the front seat. But why it was so revealing to me is because if you really understand how Google approached that product or that project, however you wanna say it, it was very cautious, right? I mean, they have radar, LiDAR. They have cameras. They have had nine accidents since they've been driving, you know, these things on the road. They'd limit it to, you know, sort of urban areas. They don't go on highways yet, although they're getting used to. And what just struck me was sort of their really do no harm mentality. And caution and how they wanted to deploy this product, this technology to consumers. You could see others have different, different strategies.
That's great.
Others have different strategies of just how much risk they're willing to take as an organization and/or, you know, with any one particular product.
Gotcha. So perfect from a timing perspective. So I asked this last year. I'm gonna ask it again. You got 60 seconds or less. Tell us why, as an investor, Hartford's a good investment today over the next 12-24 months, 24 months.
Yeah. I would say I can't remember. You asked this last year.
I did ask it last year. I've got it right here. I wanna see if you answered the same.
What I wanna say this year is I think even compared to last year, we're a more consistent, predictable organization.
Mm-hmm.
that values underwriting and underwriting discipline to produce the margins. Second, I think we're gonna grow faster than the market and consolidate and capture more market share. Third, we generate superior, superior ROEs. And we're generating excess capital. And our preferred strategy for excess capital, at least currently, is dividend increases and buybacks. So I think that's a powerful equation for a, a highly valued organization.
Pretty compelling. Thank you. I appreciate both your time. That was great.
Thank you.
Thanks, y'all.