Good morning. Good afternoon. I'm Sanjay Kalra, Chief Financial Officer of Harmonic. Welcome to Harmonic's 2022 Virtual Analyst Day. It's great to have you with us today. I want to briefly review the agenda for today's event. Our President and CEO, Patrick Harshman, will kick things off and provide an overall company introduction. We will then first discuss our video segment, and Patrick reviewing investment highlights. Senior Vice President, Video Products and Corporate Development, Shahar Bar, presenting our video segment's business growth strategy, market trends, and technology. I will walk through video segments long-term financial model. We will next review our broadband segment with Patrick reviewing investment highlights. Senior Vice President and General Manager, Cable Access Business, Nimrod Ben-Natan will review our broadband business' growth strategy, market trends, and technology. After which I will walk through the broadband segment's long-term financial model.
We will then open the meeting for questions. Before we continue, I must mention that today's presentation will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements. I refer you to our most recent Forms 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-Ks filed with the SEC for more information on risk factors. Please review the cautionary language here on the slide. I will now hand it over to Patrick. Patrick?
All right. Well, thank you very much, Sanjay, and let me add my welcome and thanks to all of you for joining us today. By way of introduction, for those, particularly those who are less familiar with the company, wanna provide just a high level at a glance overview. We operate two related but distinct and largely autonomous business segments, business units, broadband and video. As Sanjay just indicated, the structure of our presentation today will be really focused on first video and then broadband. We're a Silicon Valley-based company. Revenue guidance for this year, just over $620 million, up 22% year-over-year. Its market cap just over $1.1 billion.
As we'll discuss in some detail, really what's powering the transformation and the growth of the company and the opportunities we see ahead of us is the tremendous investment we've made over the last several years in cloud-native technologies, in both the streaming video as well as the broadband areas. These technologies are really revolutionizing the way our customers do business, deliver advanced services. Indeed, it's no surprise that market-leading customers around the globe have adopted Harmonic as their strategic partner in these areas. We'll be discussing all of that in more detail as we go forward. At a high level, the opportunities that the company is facing are related, but distinct.
Streaming video, particularly of live events and delivery of ever-increasing speed broadband services, gigabit, multiple gigabit services. These are intertwined, and the importance of these and the consumer value of the services that our technologies enable have certainly come to even greater prominence through the pandemic. We think both of these areas are exciting areas. They're strongly growing, as we'll explain to you, and Harmonic is uniquely positioned to take advantage. Not only to take advantage, but to lead in these areas. In fact, one of the things we're quite proud about is the strong execution we've delivered over the past 12 or 14 months since we last spoke with you.
We laid out largely the same strategy as we'll talk about today, and we talked about what I think many saw as fairly aggressive execution targets. Well, I'm happy to be with you a year plus later saying that we have more than executed on what we saw in front of us a year ago, and we are as confident as ever in our ability to continue to execute and lead in each of these areas. With that, let's now move in and talk about our video business in some more detail.
Before I turn it over to Shahar Bar to really walk us through the substance of the market dynamics and how we are benefiting from and taking advantage of those dynamics, let me start out with the following really key investment highlights, key takeaways from Shahar's presentation. We're targeting a cloud SaaS market, which is growing from a very small base, and which we think will be approximately or a little north of $1.3 billion in 2025. Associated with that, we see our sales being above $110 million of SaaS-only revenue by 2025, a compounded annual growth rate of over 45%. Associated with this, we see increasing operating leverage.
We're targeting greater than 14% EBITDA margin by 2025, again, strongly growing from 2022. Powering all of this is industry-leading technology, and as I mentioned a moment ago, particularly around live programming, and we're finding particular resonance with live sports, as Shahar will talk about in some detail. Our confidence in our ability to continue to execute in this area is bolstered by several very significant tier one wins around premium sporting events in particular that have happened over the last year and have really driven the strong SaaS growth that we've been reporting, too, over the last several quarters. With that introduction, let me turn it over to you, Shahar, to talk about the video market and our business.
Thanks, Patrick. Let's dive into the video segment. First, let's take a look at a quick recap of the industry over the years and how it's evolved. We started out with traditional broadcast television, which has evolved over the years to a very significant and material kind of pay TV industry. A little over 10 years ago, subscription VOD streaming services were introduced into the market. Those evolved into TV Everywhere services, as well as recently, sports streaming, premium sports, particularly associated with targeted ads and free ad-supported television. Quite a lot of developments in the industry over the years. Still, when we look at the industry today, you can really categorize it as two separate tech stacks.
You've got one stack, which is the broadcast industry, which is really founded around the 24/7 linear channel and a unified signal sent to everybody, which is identical. On the other side of the fence, we've got kind of a different stack, the streaming stack, which is basically a dedicated stream per user, and with the exception of live sports, pretty much users and viewers watch it at their convenience whenever they want to. That has really led to differences in infrastructure, which is where we participate in providing video infrastructure technology to our customers.
On the broadcast side, from the heritage and just the way it was evolved, you pretty much have private facilities, broadcast centers, pay TV facilities where they place appliances, software, hardware, appliances, and they operate them themselves, and that's one side of the market. On the other side of the market, which evolved from the streaming side, is basically taking advantage of the flexibility and the dynamism of the public cloud and using that to power streaming services, which are variable by nature. If you've got a lot of viewers, you need a lot of compute and traffic, and during other times, non-peak times, you have lower. So the cloud is really the foundation of that. That's where the industry stands today with two kind of separate segments.
You've got basically an appliance market, and you've got a cloud SaaS market, and we'll dive into each of those right now. Well, let's start with the bigger one and the more exciting one, the video cloud SaaS market. Around 2020, this was what I would call a relatively modest market, a little over $400 million. Through 2025, we expect this market to substantially grow with an annual growth rate, compounded annual growth rate around 25% and reach $1.3 billion. Similar to the foundation of cloud, it is a kind of consumption-based business, so as you use the services on the cloud, you're basically paying for the consumption. It's a usage-based model.
There's three major components to this TAM, this growing TAM, and we'll start with the one here, colored in light blue, the media processing. That category is the foundational one, and that basically defines all the media that we're ingesting, storing, modifying, manipulating in the public cloud. That aligns perfectly with the amount of content that is available on the cloud, the size of the VOD libraries, the amount of channels on, and the amount of live sports that are being streamed around the world. That is growth through the amount of content that we're gonna see over the next few years in the industry moving to the cloud for streaming services, mostly. The other two categories are delivery, also known as traffic, and targeted ads.
Those are actually not associated so much with the amount of content, but associated with the engagement on that content. The more attractive content you put on the cloud through a streaming platform, the more engagement you're gonna get on it, the more popular it is, the more you're gonna see traffic grow and delivery grow, so feeding the consumers and all the users that are on the platform. Then, of course, when you have a high level of traffic and interest, you're able to stitch or target personalized ads to those consumers. The kind of the dark blue and the yellow categories here are basically funneling through as content becomes more popular, as more viewers and consumers move towards direct-to-consumer streaming services. That's where you're gonna see this rapid growth in the industry over the coming years.
Overall, we expect it to be around $1.3 billion and continuing to grow. It's worth noting that it's really been kind of accelerating over the last in the recent quarters due to the introduction of a lot of premium sports services on the platform. On the other side, we have the secondary market, which is the appliance market, which I mentioned earlier, kind of which started out from the broadcast industry. This market was around $1.2 billion in 2020, declined by around 15% to this year, around just a little over $1 billion. We expect it to fall by another 25%-30% to by 2025. This basically is a more traditional kind of product category. It's an appliance. Today, most of the appliances are software-based.
They're sold in a capital expenditure with a support contract placed into private facilities, pay TV facilities, networks, broadcast centers operated by the media companies, which continue to invest and to refresh this equipment because their traditional broadcast workflows and selling their content is still a very, very profitable business. There's also a very large multi-billion dollar install base. The focus of the customers in this market is really gonna be on efficiency and cost reduction to optimize as much as they can profit from this market as they invest in their digital. We've got these two markets going in different directions, but combined in 2025, we see an overall very attractive market for our video segment. We have over a $2 billion market, which is growing. The larger part is the cloud SaaS at around $1.3 billion and growing.
We have a slightly declining here, the appliance market at around $700 million. Overall, a very attractive market for us to go after. Let's pivot over specifically to our cloud SaaS products and our momentum in this industry and why we're confident in our success in going after this cloud SaaS TAM. First, we look at our own cloud SaaS business. We launched our first kind of customers in 2017, 2018, the early adopters. In 2020, we started to see momentum in our business really take off. We had around $12.8 million of SaaS subscription revenue that year. That grew to $21.3 million last year, and this year our midpoint with the guidance is expected to be around $34 million. Very nice growth.
It's around 63%+ CAGR over the three years with a lot of momentum. Of course, we're driven by the market itself as more of our media customers move to the cloud, especially for their streaming services. Specifically, our business has been fueled by premium sports streaming, which I'll talk about in more detail. It's also worth mentioning here that not only do we have a high growth rate on the top line, our growth margins have been dramatically improving and are getting to be significant levels already on this platform. Even though there is a $34 million you could categorize as relatively modest, we're already well above 50% gross margin.
Now with the business growing in several years and having the predictability and the operational expertise of running it, we are very confident that we can reach 75% or higher in the long term on this business from a gross margin perspective. There's three major applications that we focus on when we sell our SaaS cloud platform. The first and maybe the fastest-growing one right now for us is the live sports streaming. We have a lot of logos on the platform and some very big customers. Some of them are listed here, Bally Sports, Peacock, beIN SPORTS, Sky in Europe, kind of all over the globe. We do a lot of premium sports for our customers. On average, we do anywhere from 4,000 to 5,000 sporting events per month. We have here the data here on the average MRR.
That's the monthly recurring revenue or equivalent to the invoices we send our customers for running our services on the cloud platform. On average, for our sporting customers, it's around $100,000 per month. Many of our bigger sporting platforms spend a lot more than that per month, but we also have some smaller sporting customers which run tier two leagues or smaller sporting venues and basically have a smaller monthly invoices. But on average, we do about $100,000. That's relatively material, and that goes back to why I explained about the TAM. When you put in very attractive premium content, you're gonna get a lot of engagement.
For our sports streaming systems, you have quite a bit of delivery of traffic, and you also have a lot of targeted ads as the CPMs, kind of the price per thousand impressions, is very attractive in the market. Overall, our live sports category is around 42% of our total SaaS revenue in 2022, and the fastest-growing. TV Everywhere is where we do kind of VOD libraries or traditional channels, linear channels, but are made available on the digital side. That is actually a slightly bigger part of our overall revenue. It's about 48%. We also have a larger number of customers on this. However, the average MRR is a little bit lower at around $25,000 per month. It's worth noting we have some very large customers doing TV Everywhere services in the hundreds of thousands of dollars per month.
However, we also have some customers which are doing a very small investment into their digital. Maybe just a small VOD library or maybe just one or two of their channels are available to a small subset of their consumers. Overall, on average, we have about $25K average MRR on this segment per month, but we have a larger customer base here. Finally, there's a third, and I would say early stage, application that we're targeting with our SaaS cloud market. This is important to note, this is the only one out of the three here that actually overlaps with our traditional appliance business, which I'll describe in detail later in the presentation. The other two, the streaming, the live sports, and the TV Everywhere do not overlap with our traditional appliance business. This one is the broadcast migration.
This is the same broadcasters or pay TV providers that are looking to take their traditional broadcast workflows, which were in their private facilities, and move them over to the cloud. This migration is in its infancy. We have a few large customers around the world testing a very small subset of their workflows, moving them to cloud-native stacks, looking at the applications, learning how to operate it, and so on. Those customers, still again, very early stages, are generating around an average of around $30K MRR for us. Overall, this business is very modest, about 10% of our SaaS revenue. The broadcast cloud migration is a long-term transition. It is something that was going to take probably eight to 10 years to fully kind of run through the system. It's not gonna be a quick one- or two-year migration.
You have enormous investments in facilities, and they're gonna selectively move certain workflows to the cloud, and we will be involved in many of those transformations. Those are the three major applications that we focus on in our SaaS cloud business. The question is: Why do we win and why are we successful with all these logos that I showed in the previous slide? Let's first tackle the streaming side. It's no secret that today a lot of the streaming happens on the big screens, on your 58 Samsung TVs or so on, or LGs. In that environment, quality, latency, buffering time, startup time are all very, very critical. Those are areas we outperform other competitors in the market.
We invested very, very heavily to provide the best quality of experience for our customers, and that's one of the four major reasons we're being selected for these live sports or TV Everywhere services. The second one is specifically with sports. We've invested extremely heavily over the last two to three years with features that are sport-specific. The ability to make replays available very shortly after the event, the ability to jump between different events of the game, and many, many other features. Understands the cloud and has experience with the cloud and is not basically in its early adoption of the cloud. Because of our work in streaming, we are very, very mature in the cloud. We understand it very well, and we stress the cloud very, very collaboratively with the cloud vendors.
That gives a very attractive combination where we know the workflows, and we are very experienced in the cloud, which may market. Those are targeting the do-it-yourself market. Those companies or startups or maybe even a media company that wants to build everything on their own and maybe cherry-pick a service from a cloud provider, but not directly competing against us. Finally, the app and subscriber manager providers, the same ones that I mentioned earlier in the previous slide that are our partners, some of them have decided to not partner with us and build their own video pipeline stack for the infrastructure. We call that a good enough pipeline.
It's sufficient for early-stage launches, it's sufficient for trials in the media stage, but if the system becomes very large scale, if it needs enormous resiliency, if you move into premium sports, it doesn't cut it, and as a result of that, basically they don't tend to last in the media industry very long period of time. We tend to wind up taking some of those customers. For early stages and trials and stuff, they are very good in the market, and they do, we do compete against them. Shifting over to the appliance business trends, it's a little bit different. We'll first start with the financials over the last three years. You can see in 2020 we had just under $229 million increased in 2021 to $265 million. This year our midpoint is around $241 million.
It is a very, very stable and consistent business around this range, and not just on the top line, but also it's very resilient on the gross margins. Despite all the supply chain headwinds we've all experienced and have heard in the industry, the margins have been very, very steady at around 60%. Part of that stability comes from our recurring revenue component, which is the support contracts which support over $1 billion of installed base and are a material component of the overall revenue of the appliance business. Overall, this business is a very stable business. Despite the market decline again that I showed earlier from $1.2 billion to a little over $1 billion between 2020 and 2022, we actually increased our dollars between those two years.
It basically shows that during this decline we are expecting to continue to grow our market share in the appliance business. There's three applications that we focus on in the appliance business. One is channel origination, which is the creation of the linear channel. This is actually a pretty healthy sub-segment of the market because whether you're feeding a TV Everywhere service or a traditional cable plant, or a terrestrial system, you still need to originate your content. That is a relatively healthy part of the market and we do very well in that area. The second area is to feed into pay TV providers. There's no doubt that pay TV in general is a little challenged in the industry. They're getting pressure from direct-to-consumer services, from content owners going directly to consumers, and from free ad-supported television. It still is a big segment.
There still is a lot of facilities that are being upgraded, enhanced and refreshed, but that is an area that is a little bit challenged. That's the second area we focus on in our appliance business. The third is content distribution. It's effectively moving the content from these media companies towards their affiliates, whether they are streaming affiliates or whether they are traditional cable, telco or direct-to-home affiliates. That's actually a very attractive market for us because that industry is in flux. You have a lot of satellite infrastructure that needs to be refreshed or upgraded for efficiency gains that are driven by cost or by government regulations like C-band. You've also got a lot of content moving away from satellite altogether, moving to the cloud, CDNs or terrestrial distribution.
that is actually a pretty attractive market and we've done very well there in the recent years. Those are the three main segments that we focus on in our appliance business. Our competitors in our appliance business are a long list of companies. Most of these we've competed against for better part of 10+ years. They were historically owned by larger communications companies, which have in recent years spun them off into private equity ownership. That transition has been helpful for us. Not all the acquisitions by the private equities have gone very well, and there's been some disturbance in those acquisitions, which allowed us to take market share, as I showed earlier. Overall, we generally believe that the declining TAM in this industry will help us as customers look for the one bigger player.
We are the biggest player in this market, by far, and with the best technology and the most breadth of solutions. Finally, it's important to note that technologically, our appliances are derived from our cloud stack. They're essentially, we take our cloud software, we strip off a lot of the cloud specifics, we make effectively a single node cluster, and we place it on a HPE or an Intel or a Dell server, and then ship it to our customers. That gives our customers, our appliance customers, a lot of confidence that they're getting the most up-to-date and the most advanced software stack, which is aligned with our cloud vision.
The result of that gives us confidence that we can continue to compete very well against our traditional appliance competitors. With that, I'll hand it over to recap the financials for the video segment to Sanjay.
Thanks, Shahar. Corresponding to the industry and business transformation that Shahar has just outlined, we're driving a transforming financial model for our video business. The baseline for today's discussion is 2022, when our video segment is expected to report $277 million in revenue for our previously stated guidance, comprised of $241 million in appliance revenue and $36 million in SaaS revenue. Looking ahead to 2025, we are targeting video revenue of over $290 million, including appliance revenue of over $180 million.
Looking more closely at SaaS revenue, taking advantage of both market growth and Harmonic's differentiated and expanding solution set, we are targeting compounded annual revenue growth of over 45% for this timeframe, leading to over $110 million in SaaS revenue for 2025, representing nearly 40% of 2025 total video segment revenue. As SaaS revenues continue to scale and SaaS gross margin improves, for 2025, we are targeting non-GAAP video business gross margin of over 62% compared to 58.9% we expect to report in 2022. Our video research and development, marketing and G&A costs are expected to remain relatively flat with our current levels. Thereby enabling good operating leverage.
We expect video non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA margins to exceed 14% by 2025, compared to approximately 8% expected in 2022, and 3.4% in 2020. Looking beyond 2025, we expect continued gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin as SaaS revenues continue to grow. In summary, our video SaaS business continues to scale and expand. We expect to see continued financial transformation to a higher margin and more recurring revenue-based model over the next three years, mirroring the market and technology transformations we've reviewed with you today. Now let me turn it over to Patrick Harshman and Nimrod Ben-Natan, who will review our broadband segment.
Okay. Thanks very much, Shahar and Sanjay. As Sanjay just mentioned, we'll now switch gears and take a look at our broadband business. Before I turn it over to Nimrod for a detailed discussion of market dynamics and our strategy and progress, let's review the key investment highlights. What you'll be hearing from us is that we see the addressable market we're targeting being over approximately $2 billion by 2025. This is growing at a continued good clip, and associated with that, we are now targeting revenue of greater than $800 million in 2025, with growth actually somewhat outpacing the growth of the market.
Behind these projections of our revenue growth is powerful transformative technology, particularly the cloud-native technology, which remains well ahead of the competition in the broader broadband space. Evidence of our leadership and the traction we're seeing in the market is offered by a growing number of leading broadband operators domestically in the US as well as around the world, who are embracing and deploying our technology actually with accelerating pace. Lastly, while certainly enabling services over traditional cable infrastructure is home base for us and accounts for the lion's share of the revenue and the growth to date, we're increasingly confident in our new initiatives around fiber, analytics, as well as cloud services to create an expanded opportunity for our business.
Nimrod will discuss all of this now, in the next several minutes. With that, Nimrod, let me turn it over to you.
Thanks, Patrick, and great to be here again. Very similar market dynamics to those we discussed last year with a couple of changes. The demand for broadband consumption is keep growing for different applications, but what we see this year is a heated up competition between service providers. Fiber has become a foundational priority for a lot of the telcos, and we see more and more fixed wireless services. In fact, in some markets, we even see cable competing with both fiber at the top end and fixed wireless, which is going very competitive on pricing.
In addition to that, we see more and more government money being allocated, and more specifically, we also see established, bigger operators going after government money and putting it to work. Looking at the addressable market, as Patrick said, close to a $2 billion and growing addressable market. The foundation of that is our DOCSIS market about $900 million, where we exclude the legacy eroding CCAP market, and we're very focused on the virtual CMTS and the distributed architecture. On top of that, with great synergy, as we're gonna discuss in more details, we see the fiber market at about $800 million.
This is really a subset of the total addressable market of fiber infrastructure, which is higher than $3 billion globally, even excluding China. To be conservative and for the next three years, we really focus on a subset of that market, which is very focused on cable MSOs and additional alternative providers where our technology is a great fit for. On the cloud services, this is a smaller modest but very important component. This is really the analytics and insights that we provide on our customers' network and subscribers to really help them with operational excellence and better customer satisfaction. You may remember last year, we also presented in our term an edge cloud opportunity. This year, again, to be conservative, we took it out.
We're still very excited about that opportunity. It's developing slower than the timeline going into 2025. This is really the opportunity to host at the edge of the network applications which are latency sensitive and really take advantage of the growing footprint and penetration we have with cloud native infrastructure at the edge of the network. The major issue with the deployed cable broadband infrastructure today, which is really the Achilles heel for cable, is really the upstream and the inability to provide symmetric services which are being promoted by the competition. In fact, this is what's being deployed in more than 80% of the market today. Most of the cable MSOs are still running on an infrastructure that does not do well on the downstream.
As you know, cable have introduced gigabit services a while ago and really took the market away from DSL with higher download speeds, but is lagging behind on upload speeds. This is really where the focus of the industry. That's the good news. Despite of the situation in the market today, they really have a great 10G strategy for the next couple of years. In fact, multiple options to modernize the network while expanding upstream as well as downstream, again, to be competitive with higher speeds and symmetric speeds.
Their modernization starts with a cloud native platform that can provide the services can help the architecture to migrate away from analog optics into digital optics put the so-called digital nodes into the network increase the split of the network such that you can go from 100 megabit per second to about 1.7 Gb on the upstream. This is a lot of what's driving our business today. There is an interesting add-on optionality for that architecture, which is really surgically overlay fiber to the home on top of this architecture. We'll talk more about that.
That's part of our strategy to enable what we call fiber islands for customers to really put fiber to the home where they really need, whether it's an MDU or a competitive neighborhood. Instead of doing a complete network upgrade, they can do it surgically. We see a couple of other interesting cases, combination of DOCSIS 3.1 with advanced CPEs, 4.0 CPEs, in fact, can take the cable industry to 8 Gb per second on the downstream, even on technology that exists today. They can push fiber deeper. Again, it's an investment that they will have to make regardless over time as they go to fiber to the home.
Obviously DOCSIS 4.0 that will push the limits of the cable infrastructure, and we'll talk more about that, and we recently heard about some MSOs that will start deploying this technology as early as 2023. Obviously fiber to the home is something that some of the customers are doing definitely for a greenfield. We see that as the choice in the rural markets or as they edge out of the geography of their network. Similar to other technologies, we're now seeing the virtualization and distributed architecture technology adoption going basically crossing the chasm and becoming a mainstream.
It's been a journey we have pioneered back in 2017 and, you know, 2022 going into 2023. We definitely see the market adopting that and this technology becoming mainstream. Just to get a context for what we have captured over the last couple of years with 85 operators and a footprint that covers about 60 million connected subscribers. Our technology or the virtual CMTS and DAA technology have only been deployed in front of 20% of that footprint. Obviously that will grow over the next couple of years.
Certainly with competition on the service provider side, as well as success of the early adopters of the virtualization technology, along with the fact that this technology is in fact something that you have to do as you go to DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber. Very exciting for us after years of pioneering this space to see this going mainstream. In fact, we see a very interesting multiple waves of upgrades, and some of them are going in parallel, either for the same operators or different operators.
Basically to successfully navigate this transition of technologies, extending the upstream with DOCSIS 3.1 or putting fiber, as we said, into MDU or OOO areas, as well as going to DOCSIS 4.0. We see all of that happening in between now and the next couple of years. Fiber is happening now. It's not only a future thing, and as we said, DOCSIS 4.0 will begin deployments in 2023.
As we said, we believe that to successfully do that, operators will need a broadband platform that will help them to go through the increase of the speed tiers, different options, going higher split or splitting the nodes, 4.0 or fiber to the home. They will move away from analog optics into digital nodes with digital transport, and they will need a strong foundation of core virtual CMTS and virtual BNG for fiber to the home, as well as tools to manage that extending network with advanced telemetry and analytics, automation and again all of that with the focus on operational excellence and customer satisfaction.
Our success in this market over the last couple of years, and as you're gonna see our projected growth into the next couple of years, was driven by two I would say foundational differentiation that we have built over the years. The first one is our true virtualized cloud-native software platform. We truly believe that this is unique, the way we took very complex network functions, such as the CMTS, which was traditionally implemented as hardware into software. We did it by following the spirit of a cloud native something that you can scale out horizontally with microservices rather than taking a monolithic implementation in software.
That's the first thing, and this is all in production at amazingly high scale and great customer satisfaction. The second thing that we've done is the multi-tenancy by developing something that enables DOCSIS and fiber within the same implementation, such that customers do not have to put separate platforms to do that. They can add on top of any DOCSIS implementation surgically, as we discussed previously, which is very CapEx-efficient fiber to the home. Of course, the analytics, which is all modern implementation of cloud-native architecture. Again, this is giving our customers instant visibility into their networks.
Instead of many minutes and hours to understand changes in the network and trends that are impacting their customers, they can instantly see that and of course, automate that to create a customer that gives them operational excellence. An interesting side effect that was not our main focus, but this new architecture gives our customers huge space and power saving. This, today, more than ever before, is becoming very, very important. Perhaps one other factor moving into commodity compute infrastructure with software has solved for us the supply chain problem. That's one of the reasons that we could keep up with demand without much of supply chain problems. That was the first one, the software, the cloud-native architecture.
The second one is the hardware. This is the outdoor units that we distribute into the network. A couple of very important differentiation factors that we have. Number one, from the very beginning, we made our architecture modular and expandable, basically giving our customers flexibility and optionality where they could start with one module and expand to more capacity, or they could add fiber to the home without forklift or over kind of duplicating the infrastructure. They can piggyback on what they put for DOCSIS for fiber to the home. The same way, supporting all the flavors of DOCSIS, starting from DOCSIS 3.1, 4.0, Extended Spectrum, Full Duplex, the XGS for 10G fiber or the 10G EPON.
All of that is expandable within the same platform. We also focus on creating the smallest to enable that modularity. We came up with the smallest form factor and lowest power design in the industry, which also, by the way, helped us to put our technology into existing third-party outdoor nodes. We've announced support for the Cisco node, which is widely deployed in the market. Again, this is helping our customers to migrate more quickly into this architecture. One of the early decisions we made early on was to standardize on a Broadcom silicon, which we have mastered along with this unified design that really helped us to be more agile, move faster and support all the use cases of our customers.
Of course, this standardized design is very efficient from a supply chain. Again, that was not the main reason back then to go with this, but going through the pandemic, it was very beneficial. This is really what helped us to become number one in this DAA space. The most advanced features for these outdoor nodes, the highest density, the most efficient power. Again, everything we do is supporting DOCSIS and fiber simultaneously. With this, kind of thanks to the market demand that we talked about earlier and the unique technology that I presented, along with very focused execution, our momentum in the market continues. We can see increase relative to what we presented to you a year ago.
We're up to 85 global operators, up from 59 a year ago, and ten tier one. In the last quarter, we were at nine. We added another one during the course of the last quarter. We have crossed, and this was an exciting milestone for us, more than 100,000 of those remote devices, remote neighborhoods, and we're up to 10 million cable modems. As you can see, there is close to 180, 190 million modems. There is a long way to go. With the fact that this technology is going into mainstream, we're confident with our ability to keep growing in the next couple of years.
With that, I will turn it over to Sanjay to give you the financials of the next three years.
Thanks, Nimrod. Over the past three years, the broadband business has delivered strong revenue and gross profit growth. From 2019 through the end of this year, at the midpoint of our 2022 guidance, which we are forecasting a revenue CAGR of greater than 55%. Gross profit is expected to grow greater than 65% over the same period. These 2019 to the end of 2022 CAGRs exclude the benefit of one-time upfront software revenue of $37.5 million we recognized in 2019 related to the software license agreement that we closed with Comcast that year. This slide summarizes our broadband segment's 2025 target operating model. Corresponding to our growing addressable market and multidimensional growth plan, we see an increasingly attractive financial model taking shape.
Using 2022 as a baseline, our cable segment is expected to deliver approximately $340 million in revenue. Our revenue target of over $825 million for 2025 translates to a go forward CAGR of over 34%. For DOCSIS, we are modeling at least 72% market share by 2025, resulting in revenue of approximately $645 million. For the subset of fiber we are targeting, we are modeling a market share of at least 20%, resulting in approximately $160 million in revenue for 2025. Our cloud services offerings should garner a market share of at least 13%, generating approximately $20 million in revenue for that year.
Further, we are targeting a non-GAAP gross margin of at least 50% compared to 42.8% we expect to report for 2022, an adjusted EBITDA margin in excess of 28% by 2025 versus the 16% expected in 2022. We expect to achieve these results even as we continue to strategically invest in R&D to more fully open up the fiber and cloud services opportunities that we see available to us. Looking beyond 2025 and considering these newer R&D initiatives, we expect to position ourselves to achieve even higher adjusted EBITDA margin in succeeding years as multi-product revenue growth eventually outpaces technology investment growth. Please note these blended margin targets are based on our current market share expectations. If these should change, we would expect blended gross margins to change accordingly.
Our organization is uniquely positioned and absolutely committed to achieving the objectives we laid out here today for both of our business segments. We look forward to executing on our growth plans and keeping you updated on our progress. We will now open up the meeting for questions.
Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your phone. Please stand by as we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for the first question. Our first question will come from Steve Frankel of Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.
Good afternoon. Thanks. This was a really interesting presentation. Now, you changed the way you've laid out the cable access business. I just wanted to dig into those numbers a little bit. The last time, you know, one of the open questions was how big would the business be and its impact on gross margins and profit margins. In this new scenario for 2025, what kind of market share are you assuming here?
Nimrod, perhaps you could speak to that.
Sorry, my connection is having a problem here at the office. I could not follow.
Okay. Well, I'll jump in. First, can everybody hear me? Can you hear me, Steve?
Yes.
Okay. A year ago, I think we estimated about 30% market share for hardware. What we've seen since then is we're garnering significantly more than that. While I think today we don't want to quote a specific market share, let me say what has become more apparent is that increasingly customers, large and small, are looking at what we do from a full end-to-end system sale point of view. From that perspective, I think that we think that our hardware market share probably won't differ too materially from our overall market share. As Nimrod laid out, in the end, we think that's a good thing. It's a good thing in terms of the end-to-end competitive advantages that we have.
As you can see from the financial model, it's also a good thing in terms of expanding the earnings potential and leverage of the business. You see a higher implied market share that is more or less along the lines, maybe only modestly below the software, core software market share that we see. Corresponding to that, we're still targeting a 50% plus blended gross margin, which we think is reasonable and attractive in the context of an end-to-end communication services offering.
Thank you. That's helpful. Then as a follow-up, Nimrod laid out kind of multiple pathways that the customer can take to get to this next generation network. Is there a particular architecture choice that gives you unique advantages? Where do you wanna see the market go a certain way, or does it not matter to you how that develops?
It doesn't really matter to us. It's also a matter of availability and a fit for the customer architecture. From our point of view, and this is really key to our strategy is to be able to support them all. Obviously, DOCSIS 4.0 is not fully ready, but flavors of the 3.1 along with the fiber are ready. Our goal is to entertain the customer desire, whether it's this architecture or that.
Okay. That's the same in terms of Remote PHY versus Remote MAC-PHY.
Yeah. You may remember a year ago, we announced our MAC Anywhere architecture, which is really our unique software architecture. We don't really care whether that runs on Intel compute infrastructure or it runs embedded on a Broadcom silicon. We support both. I think from a customer point of view, they've got their own choices, and there is also availability of the technology. At least the reality so far is that the Remote PHY is the majority of what has been deployed in the market. I think the key factor is that both technologies are giving the same service. I can run symmetric gigabit with both.
You guys may come to next week to see our ICD demonstration, where we show a 2.3 Gb and 1.5 Gb on the upstream, and it works on both the same way. It's really about the urgency. We can see it. We talked about the fiber competition, we talked about the fixed wireless. For many of them, it feels like urgency of availability of technology is becoming a key factor.
Well, great. Thank you. I'll jump back in the queue.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Simon Leopold of Raymond James. Your line is open.
Thanks for taking the question. I first wanted to see if you could maybe clarify one of the slides. I think it was slide number 29 in Nimrod's presentation showing the growth rates for DOCSIS. I'm not quite sure whether that was something I understood what you were trying to show. Maybe that was just the market for virtualized solutions and not all DOCSIS, because I believe the revenue or net was probably higher. I just want to clarify what you're showing on that, the first slide. Is that something you can answer?
Specifically, the DOCSIS that we show here is excluding the legacy CCAP. This is only the virtual CMTS and the DAA architecture.
Great. Okay. Yeah, that's what I suspected it was. That makes sense to me then. As a follow-up, I wanna see if it was possible to maybe get a bridge between last year's high level presentation for the segments that went out to 2024 and this year's financial targets, which go out to 2025. I appreciate it's a one year difference, but it looks to me that the video segment declined a little bit in terms of revenue, but the cable segment is substantially larger in terms of revenue. I suspect part of it is the inclusion of fiber, but I want to get a better understanding of how to draw the connection between the 2024 targets you showed us last year and the new targets this year.
Yeah, Simon. The connection is exactly as you mentioned. You know, for video, we've seen a decline on appliances, but we are seeing very strong growth in SaaS. From a bottom line perspective, we are on track, and actually we are performing better for 2025. That said, for cable, you know, our revenues for 2024, the top line and the bottom line are better where we are for 2024, and hence 2025 is the right target to look at, which eventually includes not only fiber growth, which I shared today, but also an increasing market share on DOCSIS.
Just to clarify, in the last year's presentation, was fiber not included in your assumption?
It was, but we have seen a significant increase there now. We're seeing much more traction than what we envisioned last year.
Great. No, I appreciate that. Then just one last one, if I might. Last week, Comcast, which is a large customer for you, announced efforts to deploy DOCSIS 4.0 in 2023. What, if any, are the implications for your business with Comcast? Thank you.
It's all part of the plan. The assumptions for fiber as we just discussed, as well as flavors of DOCSIS 4.0 and the timeline starting in 2023 going into 2024, 2025 and beyond is all baked into our assumptions that we presented to you.
It's not a displacement. You continue to do business with them in 4.0 world, correct?
Oh, yeah. I mean, I think they, if you go back to their announcement, they were talking about what they do for increased speed with mid-split and virtualized architecture and all the benefits of that. They were talking about continuing that into 2025, as well as there was a comment about symmetric gigabit services with their choice of DOCSIS 4.0 starting in 2023.
Great. Appreciate that. Thank you for taking the questions.
If I could just add on to Simon's question. I mean, I want to be very clear that the foundational advantages of what we're doing in virtualization and cloud-native, as well as the overall DAA architecture, they are not in any way specific to DOCSIS 3.1. They extend and are at least as impactful in the context of DOCSIS 4.0, and indeed in the context of fiber and converged or hybrid fiber in DOCSIS networks. We expect to be at least as strong from a market share and technology competitive position in a DOCSIS 4.0 world and in a converged fiber DOCSIS world as we are in today's cable infrastructure.
Thank you very much.
Thanks.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Tim Long of Barclays. Your line is open.
Thank you. Two, if I could, one on each business. First on the video side, you know, particularly on the sports side, there's obviously been a lot of high profile, you know, fighting for content there, a lot of big, you know, tech and media companies getting involved. What's the risk there that there's further consolidation among players that may be doing it themselves, as far as that business? And is there any opportunity for Harmonic to supply into that channel?
Secondly, on the broadband side, just curious with the, you know, pretty big ramps in fiber in the next few years and, you know, cloud showing up in the forecast, anything you could tell us about kind of visibility into those businesses and, you know, the OpEx move on that side of the house as a little bit more dramatic than on video. Is that really to, you know, fueling these newer, higher growth businesses? Thank you.
Okay, I'll take the video question first. Look, in general, I mean, we see sports as becoming a very high focus for a lot of our customers. Big tech is no different, frankly. They're also gonna be focused on sports. We can't specifically mention names, but we definitely do a lot of premium sports for a lot of big companies, and some of them are in the tech industry for certain. We just expect that to remain the same. Our efforts and our investment over the last few years in that area have given us a significant lead in the market. Doing it yourself is not always a valid option to be able to reach the performance and the scale that is needed and the reliability for a sports system.
We continue to do very well in sports. We continue to win more and more wins, and our brand and our strength in that area will only get bigger in the coming months and quarters. For the fiber question, yeah, we certainly see that growth in fiber and specifically for cable. For most of them, it's not one or the other, and we see a lot of projects where it's both and one piggyback on the other. That's why we design our architecture this way. Certainly, as Sanjay said, it's part of our addressable opportunity. Obviously, the market share in fiber is not as high as in cable, but certainly growing.
In terms of our investment, absolutely, part of the growth is our investment in fiber, which by the way started a couple of years ago. We were incubating that and kind of developing that into the market, but certainly, it's one of the reasons for the OpEx growth. I can also say that a majority of our customer engagements have both discussions of DOCSIS and fiber.
Tim, I just add that OpEx is going up, but at the same time, if you look at adjusted EBITDA, the CAGR is more than 60%. Just wanted to highlight. It is a very good operating leverage.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Our next question will come from George Notter of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Hi. Thanks a lot, guys. Could you refresh me on the timing of your CableOS product in terms of its support for DOCSIS 4.0, whether it's Full Duplex or the Extended Spectrum DOCSIS version? Then, also same question on the node portfolio. I just, obviously, I think you guys are gonna deliver in 2023, but can you just remind me, like, you know, what the, when those products are specifically available?
At least on one flavor, which is the Full Duplex, you heard if customers will start deploying that in 2023, that certainly means that this is the availability window. What I can generally say for DOCSIS 4.0, our piece, is gonna be ready sooner than other elements in the network that you really need in order to deploy that. Since you asked, on the Extended Spectrum, you have to prep the network with new amplifiers, upgrade passes and taps. This is a multi-year investment cycle.
What we expect customers to do is at some point transition and upgrade the transmission infrastructure to be 4.0 ready or 4.0 upgradable, such that by the time they will have the rest of the infrastructure ready, they will be able to enable that. We also see a spectrum of options with DOCSIS 4.0. It's not all or nothing. I also presented an interesting flavor. As soon as you have a DOCSIS 4.0 ready cable modem, you can get much more out of the DOCSIS 3.1 network, 'cause it's not limited to what 3.1 was limited. You can do 8 Gbps, like almost what you do over fiber.
The other important factor, because our architecture is largely based on cloud-native software architecture, we're moving much faster with that, and we can evolve rather than kind of step function progress with hardware. I mentioned that we're standardized on Broadcom technology, and we'll basically be ready with the 23 milestone first and then in the out years for the rest of the flavors.
Got it. Okay. Great. Thank you very much. I appreciate that.
Thank you.
Thank you, George.
One moment for the next question. The next question will come from Tim Savageaux of Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Hi there. Some really impressive targets for cable access in particular. I wanted to follow up on some of the discussion, kind of new customer additions. It looks like it was 79 last quarter, so it looks like you've added six at least to date, including a new tier one. Don't know if I've seen Telefónica's logo up there before, so maybe that's it. Could you talk to the size of that new tier one win? It doesn't seem to have materially impacted your footprint estimate of about 60 million. In any way, you'd like to give some more color there. Then maybe as part of this discussion, is there a way to start to break out what's happening on the fiber side, in terms of wins?
I assume that would be captured, you know, somewhere in those numbers. Could you give us a little separate color on sort of the pipeline there in terms of opportunities and wins to date? Thanks.
Well, maybe I'll start, and Nimrod, you can then pick it up. Thanks first, Tim, for the question. Indeed, your math is correct on the number of customers. Tier one, the additional one that we have secured quarter-to-date, is an international customer. It does actually increase the addressable number of subscribers, but we elected at this point not to. We don't have liberty to communicate who that customer is, and we have not updated the subscriber number associated with that. We'll at quarter-end in our earnings release have an updated, you know, total universe of addressable subscriber number for you.
For those who may be newer to the discussion, we define tier one as top ten in major geographies, North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific. It's a new international top ten customer that we've secured. On the fiber side of things, as Nimrod mentioned a moment ago, virtually every one of our conversations now involves fiber, and it's become actually part of the real value proposition. It's one of the reasons why we're increasingly excited and confident about our opportunities specifically in fiber and more generally about our competitive advantages going forward. Your question about maybe breaking that out going forward, fiber is definitely noted.
I will remind everybody that last quarter, we did call out that we had booked over $10 million of new fiber business for the first time in the second quarter. We'll think about how to best give you indication of the fiber-specific pipeline creation and in-cloud business going forward. Although I again emphasize that really, particularly for cable and international hybrid operators, from a strategic and go-to-market point of view, part of the beauty here is that they, the two opportunities are very much intertwined. Nimrod, is there anything else that you would add to augment that?
No, I think you covered both topics.
If I could follow up maybe just a little bit back to Simon's question, which is, as you look at the TAM estimate for 25, you know, I imagine there's an assumption in there about, you know, the percentage of the overall market that will have moved to kind of next-generation technology. You know, implicit in that TAM, is there, you know, do you assume, I don't know whether it's an equal amount or, you know, what sort of, let's call it, legacy infrastructure assumption is sort of behind those numbers or, you know, what percentage do you think will be next gen by that point?
I think you're assuming there's, you know, still a piece of the market that you're not addressing for operators who, you know, haven't moved in that direction or at least not yet.
Correct. The $900 million of 2025 excludes legacy. Legacy is about $150 -200 million on top of that. Call it 20% or so of the market in 2025 will still be legacy, and we expect that to be mostly maintenance related. We don't see anyone investing in new projects at that point in time, again, in 2025.
Perhaps, Nimrod, we should also explain that as much as possible, we try to adhere to third-party research. In this case, we're really taking the lead of the Dell'Oro report, which historically has been quite good. It's as much their assumption, Tim, as it is ours about this split between legacy business and the next generation business.
Right.
Okay, last question for me and kind of, you know, a decent segue at least when we look at operators kind of classified into early movers versus relatively slow movers in terms of next-gen adoption. You know, Charter would fall into that category. You had an interesting announcement a few months ago about, you know, kinda retrofitting legacy Cisco nodes to Remote PHY. I wonder if you can give us kind of an update on how that program is going and what sort of traction you're seeing with Charter or anybody else in that category.
Obviously, we cannot talk any customer specifics on this, but I can say a couple of things. First of all, these are not slow movers. This is simply becoming the mainstream market. The early adopters, just like any other technology, for certain people, and it's not always easy, but there could be a great reward for that. The specific adopter we call it Pebble for the Cisco node market is something that we've introduced. Since introduction, I think we already have six or seven customers that have actually tested that. This is high volume customers. This is not only in the U.S., a couple of international customers, Latin America, more specific.
I think that the Cisco node was very popular in North America, as well as in Latin America, and we see great engagement with that. As we presented, this gives these customers a faster upgrade cycle with a much smaller OpEx labor impact to go to a new architecture. For that reason, and obviously for the reason that Cisco have effectively exited that market, we see great traction.
Great. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Tim.
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your phone. One moment, please, for our next question. Our next question will come from Ryan Koontz of Needham & Company. Your line is open.
Hi. Thanks for the question. Most of mine have been answered, but I wanted to circle back to George's question about DOCSIS four and the implications for the different approaches to band splits and upgrading the upstream capacity that the different operators have. Can you speak a little more explicitly about where your products are focused today, maybe around, you know, the Comcast full duplex approach as opposed to other approaches, maybe a little bit more explicit about your near-term product capabilities and what's on your roadmap. Thank you.
The answer is that we focus on both. In fact, some architecture decisions we took a while ago is giving us a great synergy between everything we do DOCSIS. For Full Duplex, it requires extra layer of software on our cloud-native architecture, which we have been working on, and it's available certainly for lab and field activities, and we'll be ready for the deployment. DOCSIS 4.0 in many ways from a software point of view is extended version of what DOCSIS 3.1. It's more off the shelf. Again, easy for us to expand with the cloud-native architecture. There is no specific preference for one versus the other in terms of our readiness.
We've got an architecture that enables both, and we are working with customers in both categories.
In fact, Nimrod, as you alluded to earlier, at next week's SCTE Cable-Tec Expo, we'll be demonstrating both, right?
Absolutely.
Got it. That's real helpful. There was a mention about the virtual BNG capabilities in one of your slides. I assume that is in support of your fiber-to-the-home deployments, which you're talking up. Is there any kinda specific capabilities there that are incremental to CableOS that are new and being announced now? Or is that this is kinda a core part of CableOS from the get-go?
The beauty of CableOS as a cloud native platform that supports multi-tenancy is that we can extend that with new capabilities. You know, with the vision of our edge cloud, we will in fact host third-party applications. Our focus for now is very much on services that we deliver.
The vBNG, as you said, is exactly for supporting our fiber to the home, where we do traffic management, subscriber management, provisioning. Again, very much like what we do on the DOCSIS side, but for the fiber side.
Helpful. Thank you. Just one last question, if I could, around 4K and kind of how you view that as impacting the market. How much of your assumptions around your video clients and your SaaS business is based on 4K adoption over the next few years through 2025?
4K, I would say, is in its infancy in the world of streaming. Very early days, especially in sports. We're gonna start to see the point kind of, I would say premium sports being deployed with 4K in the fall, probably for some of the new seasons starting or especially the World Cup. I still think in general it's very early days that the 4K systems don't have, you know, they're not as advanced as high definition when it comes to the latency or the target advanced stitching. So I think there's a lot of room to grow there. You know, can't really comment about it in our forecast, but I still think there's, you know, it's definitely a significant boost to our SaaS business 4K, whether it's the media processing or the traffic side.
You know, as it gets adopted, I think in a few premium sports platform, I think we're gonna see a wave of 4K investment, which will probably boost our SaaS business significantly.
Got it. That's super helpful. That's all I had. Thanks for that.
Thank you, Ryan.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. We have a follow-up from George Notter of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Hi. Thanks a lot, guys. I appreciate you letting me come in for another question here. I wanted to ask about the video business. You know, obviously that business is getting a lot of strength right now because of the C-band transition. I was looking at some of your customer data. I think you did about $60 million in sales with Intelsat, for example, over the last few quarters. You know, you talked about the video appliance business as being kind of stable, but it seems like that C-band transition kind of winds down, going forward. How do I think about, you know, sort of the step down in the appliance business because of C-band relative to the SaaS business, you know, ramping up?
You know, is the SaaS business gonna be big enough to kind of fill that gap, you know, as we go into 2023 and 2024? How do you think about that? Thanks.
Sure. I mean, there's a couple of ways to think about the C-band business. I mean, I think there's two parts to the C-band business. There's a specific, you know, U.S. government-led project for C-band, which had a very short timeframe and a very tight deadline to, you know, transition 12 plus or so media companies off of the C-band frequency. Those projects are effectively complete. However, there's dozens and dozens of operators in the U.S. as well as around the world that looked at that. They weren't part of that original round, and they will need to upgrade their infrastructure and their satellite capacity and so on to a more efficient system. So there is follow on waves across that. They're not specifically associated with the C-band government-led project, but it's associated with the outcomes of that.
I would say that there's also a secondary wave, which is a lot of these companies exiting the satellite altogether and moving towards a cloud, and essentially moving their distribution platforms to our SaaS business. That's a secondary wave that will follow on. You know, when you look at the differences, you do have some, you know, C-band was definitely a boost. We saw that in a bit of 2021. Overall, we tried to project in 2025 what we think the appliance business is gonna be. I tried to give a bit more color in the applications. We see distribution. C-band was part of a healthy migration, the software area of the pay TV industry, which is challenged quite significantly by, you know, FAST platforms and direct to consumers.
At the same time, the cloud is growing pretty fast, so we do have a drop in the appliance business from, I think, $240 million in 2022 to around $184 million in 2025. That's a $60 million or so drop that we're projecting. At the same time, SaaS is expected to grow by around $75-110 million. You know, I also think the dollars are not all the same. Those are recurring dollars versus one-time projects, and I think that makes a huge difference longer term for the business and its predictability. So in general, I would say distribution is attractive. The C-band project is over, but the market itself is not over and we're investing heavily there.
SaaS is also, you know, it's growing quite fast, and those trends are very powerful on the SaaS side.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. One moment, please, for our next follow-up. We have a follow-up from Simon Leopold of Raymond James. Your line is open.
Thanks for taking this follow-up. I just wanted to get a sense of how you're thinking about the operating expense trends versus the prior year's meeting. Summing up the two segments, it looks like you're forecasting 2025 operating expenses just shy of $340 million, whereas my notes from last year suggest you were just north of $380 million in 2024. I'm assuming you're not expecting to see cutting expenses between 2024 and 2025. Rather, you just have a more gradual expectation for expense growth from where you stand currently. Could you maybe elaborate on how you're thinking about your investments and what's driving the expenses and the change versus last year's thinking?
Simon, I'll start. The movement of OpEx over the next two years we think will be gradual as we see the revenues increasing and as we see more traction in fiber and more increase in revenue of DOCSIS. With that, the investment relative to last year, where we were considering a significant investment, we don't think that is gonna be the case. The OpEx is much less than we originally envisioned last year. That's on the overall basis, but at the same time, it's gradual every year from where we are right now.
What's the biggest factor leading you to see lower OpEx than you did last year?
Barry, you're on mute if you're saying something.
Yep. Simon, to be honest or to be transparent, I think in retrospect, our projection last year was overly inclusive. It was more of a top-down conservative view. We've had the opportunity since then to do a more of a bottoms-up appraisal of the initiatives, the requirements, et cetera. Based on that, we have a revised and indeed a more moderate scaling of expenses, along with the initiatives. That being said, it still remains a significant expansion. We actually think we're investing aggressively and somewhat uniquely in the broadband space.
We're confident that our execution plan and the spending plan that sits behind it are sufficient to enable continued, and in fact, expanded leadership in the broadband area. On the video area, I think there's really no meaningful change there. Our assumptions through our more bottoms-up work on that side have, you know, validated the view that we had a year ago.
Great. That's pretty much what I suspected, and thank you for clarifying. Appreciate it.
All right, we are at the top of the hour, so I think we need to wrap things up here. I wanna thank everybody for joining us. Wanna convey again at the top level our conviction in both the opportunities and our ability to continue to execute and take advantage of those opportunities. We appreciate your support, your attention, and we look forward to speaking with you all again soon. Thank you.