We're going to get started again. I introduced the conference at 7:10, but that's a bit early, so I'll introduce the conference again. We're very excited to be here for Citi's 2025 Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference. Again, I'm Andy Kaplowitz. I cover multi-industry and engineering construction for Citi. We're really excited to have Honeywell with us. We appreciate them being here. We've got Vimal Kapur, who is the CEO of Honeywell, Mike Stepniak, who just started as CFO. Vimal, as I walk over to you, I think you have a couple of prepared remarks you want to talk about, so go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you, Andy, for having me here on a beautiful sunny day in Miami. You wonder why you're sitting inside the conference room, but we are all here.
Great day. It's great, Vimal.
That's right. So I would say, you know, my second year in this conference, Andy, and a lot changed in one year. In one year, you know, if I look back, we made four acquisitions in Honeywell. We announced the spin-off Advanced Materials business in October. And then we announced a few days back that we will spin Aerospace as a separate business. So if you kind of take a landmark February of 2024 versus February of 2025, Honeywell has changed a lot. Now, the obvious question is, why now? Why we chose to spin these two back to back? And, you know, what's changed over the last few days or a few months? Essentially, when I started my role, the first thing I did was to really say that we'll drive Honeywell into three mega trends: Aerospace, automation, and energy transition.
In my early days, I realized that there was increasing separation between specialty chemicals business, aerospace business, and Honeywell. The specialty chemical business is poised very well for growth. It needs capital. It obviously has options for some nice adjacencies move. The aerospace business is poised to double its revenue in less than 10 years, which requires a massive ISC transformation, which has never been done at that scale. Not many businesses have the opportunity to double their revenue predictably, you know, based upon the demand. Honeywell wants to really go deeper into digitalization, AI, energy transition. I kind of felt that there are three different paths and started really working with the board. What is the best path forward? Here we are. We announced, you know, these two spins.
I believe that the work Honeywell added over the last many years in terms of operational excellence and all the entities is going to be a strong foundation, which carries these businesses forward with many years ahead. So looking forward to executing the spin-off Advanced Materials by the end of this year, we will announce in about a month's time information about which many of you want to know about that leadership team, some, you know, its location, name, and all that, the basic start of it. We are doing work on that. And then as we make progress, we'll announce more details on Aerospace as the time goes ahead. I know there has been a lot of inbound expectations that we provide more details on each one of them, and I fully understand that, and we will want to provide it.
But having said that, we also don't want to jump ahead of the gun and provide information which is not accurate and, you know, provide incomplete information. But fundamentally, I'm excited. I am excited to lead Honeywell in this critical period. I'm also excited on what we can create from a Honeywell perspective as a best-in-class automation stock moving forward. That's been my background all my career. I really feel excited on opportunities with the world presents with the whole advent of AI, energy transition. I think there's a lot of runway here for us. So exciting time. And then maybe a word about we provided a guide for 2025. I think the guide we have provided is realistic and something we can deliver. We are absolutely confident of delivering that. And we are on a pathway for Q1.
Early days are running as expected, and we think we are on the right trajectory there. With that, I'm going to pause here and ready for your questions.
Vimal, you've obviously been busy. Can you talk about, so you've done all of these things, right? Like, where do you think you've made the most impact so far? Is it with the announced split into three companies? It could be, but maybe it isn't. Where have you faced the biggest unexpected challenge?
I would say the biggest thing, obviously, which is visibly seen is the transformation of Honeywell into these three, you know, separate companies. But at the same time, positioning Honeywell more of a growth orientation with a focus on portfolio. That's something which I took on a task to say the portfolio management is the biggest job of CEO. And we constantly need to look at what we should own, what we are the rightful owner. And there are a few things which may not be a rightful owner. And I do feel that we have proven with the last 18 months of action that we can deliver on that. We have a momentum and we'll continue to, you know, execute on it. On disappointment side, I would say, you know, the task of transformation to any company to delivering a growth-based earnings is hard.
You know, I mean, we all know the industry is growing at a high rate. Unless you are aligned to a mega trend like electrification or data center, that's good, but we are not. So in absence of that, we are aligned with aerospace, and that's really a great mega trend Honeywell possesses. And we are really demonstrated benefit of that. But the broader company, how do you really create a growth culture mindset of organic growth? Turning that into a 100,000-person company spread over 80 countries is not that straightforward. So, but I'm confident we are making progress. We headed in the right direction. I think Q4 results were encouraging with 6% growth. I know our investor wants every quarter to be like Q4, and that's what I'm really working towards. How do we give a more sustainable performance?
So to that extent, because it's not sustainable, that's a bit of a disappointment from my point of view.
Vimal, so you suggested, like, I just want to get the Q1 conversation out of the way a little bit. You suggested you were taking a prudent view on '25, and especially I think in Q1 sales growth because of the cross-currents out there. Despite, I think you guys had talked about green shoots, you did have a better growth quarter in Q4 in your automation businesses, slightly improved growth in Q4. So have you seen continued positive momentum in those short-cycle businesses so far in Q1, or have they pulled back at all from that slightly improved Q4 growth?
Look, Q4 is in the bag, and we have delivered the results. So we feel good about it. All the businesses performed on expected lines, and we had a good short-cycle recovery both in building automation and industrial automation. But the Q1 guide, we are not taking credit for one quarter and saying because it happened there, it'll happen again. I think we don't have enough data points to bank it. So our Q1 guide, essentially the three drivers for it, aerospace is now becoming more normal way. It's grown double digit for like maybe something like 10 to 12 quarters. Now, as we have guided mid to high single digits. So there's certainly an impact from double digit to a different rate. So there's an element of that. We have not assumed any recovery in short cycles. So certainly there's an element of that.
Then finally, it's a bit of a nit, but we do have two less working days in quarter one. That's about a 1% of organic growth for us. Now, it's not a problem for the year because year has 365 days, and it will just, you know, show up in Q4 those two extra days. But I think when we put these all three together, it does hold to what we have guided for Q1.
Vimal, you already answered part of my next question. So you aren't forecasting a material short-cycle recovery in the second half of 2025, correct? You're not. But you did during the earnings call mention the word prudent three times. So, you know, as Mike is taking over, you know, I know Honeywell wants to underpromise and overdeliver. Did it all change the way you guide this year versus last year?
Certainly, I think we certainly want to make sure that what we guide is what we can deliver. So certainly there's a chance that we are more than 100% confident that the guide we give is bankable. We have a clear pathway to that. We're not making assumptions that things will get better here. But the good news is if you look at 2025 holistically, the positive I see there is the acquisitions we made. They really become organic in the second half of the year. So that certainly helps. We also had strong bookings in 2024 on the long-cycle businesses. So that also helps in the long-cycle portion of our business have more backlog. But then we also are not counting on some massive recovery.
And I think part of it is we started observing there are various factors, unknown drivers of tariff, what it does to economy. I don't know. I don't, you know, we will not, it'll be not prudent to kind of say it'll be good or bad. Maybe it's good. Then Europe continues to remain in a tight spot. China recovery is uncertain. So when you put the whole thing together, we rather saying what we had a one great quarter and that becomes a data point. We felt it's next time we won't use the word prudent three times. We'll use it once and we use the word wise. I was looking at dictionary. I heard myself. I said, somebody's going to ask me, you said this word three times.
You know, it's easy to go back and look. So maybe just to go into aerospace a little bit more, you mentioned acquisitions. You know, you did CAES, which is going to be good. Bombardier is a big transaction for you guys. But you know, the business has had ongoing headwinds over time, as you know. And it's difficult to tell whether it's company specific or it's just supply chain or maybe a combination of both. So like, I kind of want to go under the hood in the sense that, you know, you guys did mention the biggest unlock for free cash is in Aero with inventory management. You also, it seems like past due backlog has stayed up. So maybe you could opine on how do you mitigate these issues with the understanding that the separation could bring more focus.
Look, the Aero is going to have another strong year, fourth in a row. We have guided mid- to high-single-digit, and the driver for that is we expect the OE demand to be the biggest driver for it. It'll grow double digit, aftermarket we expect to grow mid to high, and then defense mid single, so when you put it all together, you know, that kind of sticks in the, you know, realm of our guide. The biggest variable still remains supply constraints. At the end of the day, this business is a supply-constrained business, and our volumes have been growing constantly, double digit for like 10 to 12 quarters. Last quarter was again high double digit, and that's the biggest, I would say, unknown in the business that how much of supply chain recovery will occur.
What's very promising is not only for 2024, not only for 2025, but looking ahead, we had the historic high bookings in aerospace ever in 2024. Bombardier is a big booking. So one can say, oh, it's because you booked this, you know, very large deal. Maybe that's a driver. If you back it out, in spite of that, it was a historic high, which positioned this business extremely well in the years to come. And on the cash side, I would say, yeah, it's a very challenging situation where, you know, the finished goods continue to make progress, but the raw materials are increasing at the same time because of the supply chain constraint. We do believe that we will get some relief in 2025, and that will generate extra cash, which is part of our forecast here.
But I mean, just to put things in perspective, I mean, I always explain to some of our investors, if you have to make an engine, it's got more than 1,000 parts. If one is shot, 999 is in inventory. That's how it works. And that's what we are dealing with. It's just very complex supply chain and shortages. It just takes one person to not make their commit. And then you are hanging in and waiting for that. And that just cycle continues with the high demand, which is coming in. But overall, I'm extremely positive on where the business is headed. Supply chain recovery remained very robust. And cash generation is something we're really working on, specifically on the inventory side, to get some working capital reduction to show up in cash.
Vimal, to your point, it's hard to complain, right? Because you've had high 20s margins now for the last three years. Like, but how much do you get involved to try to push, you know, like whether it's hiring or whether it's supply chain resiliency, getting more partners that way? Like.
I think in aerospace business, I mean, each business, my engagement varies. I mean, if you're specifically saying in aerospace, the biggest engagement has been with the customers. You can imagine the customer expectations being so high. How do we get their trust that we are serving them to the best of our capability in spite of their expectations are here, but we are here, and how do they know we are done enough, and my key engagement has been with all the airframers, practically all of them, and some select airlines. That's where I spent a lot of my time. We have one of the most capable leadership teams in aerospace business in Honeywell. Jim Currier and his leadership team do an outstanding job. You know, I don't engage much with supply base, et cetera, because we have a team to do that.
My focus has been very, very, very customer-centric.
Helpful, Vimal. So we talked about aerospace, but maybe update us on your progress in transforming the automation business. So I think one of your main goals has been to create install base and then sort of mine that install base with software and service and to take best practices from business to business. So maybe update us on your progress there, because I would have thought that increased focus would have driven, you know, better growth or better margin or both, but it's difficult to see because, you know, there's a lot going on.
Yeah, I think, look, I think there are two parts question here. First is where the business is headed, automation, and then short-term results and the long-term results. Maybe I'll answer three parts it. I, you know, in the look ahead, I'm really excited about the automation business, which Honeywell will retain, which is in building automation, industrial automation, and process technology. Those are the three legs of this stool here. And really, our model in each of the businesses is very clear. In case of building automation, we have been consistent to say our business model is to have products which are equipment agnostic, sold through channels. We have been on that journey since 2018. And our business will be, you know, $7 billion-ish in 2025. So the business model is really working well for us.
In the process side, our business model is process technology followed by process automation. We get to customer early. They have to select a technology, and then once they select the technology, we are on the table. We come on the back end and maximize our content from an automation perspective, and I think the process technology plays such an important role in process automation is underestimated. Because unlike many other industries, if you are putting a process manufacturing, you have a lot of choice of inputs and outputs. You can have a lot of choices of what raw materials I can use and what products I can make, and you need a specialist to tell you what to do because everybody has a unique combination, and that's why process technology is the heart of the game from a customer standpoint to choose the right technology.
That's where our UOP business comes in the front. And then, you know, we have our automation coming in the back end. So it's a unique differentiator. And on the industrial side, the other assets we have, they are unique. There are products which are mission critical, like gas detection, critical sensors, meters for utilities, et cetera. So I think that's kind of a broader business model, coupled with one common principle to what you mentioned, Andy, build installed base, monetize installed base. That's what Honeywell will be in automation. One way to explain Honeywell will be, that's what we do. From different form, we create installed base, and then we monetize installed base from services and from software. So I think fundamentally the progress made here is from a strategy perspective, robust. Now, to your point, results are not where we like it to be.
I think part of it is the short-term recovery in some businesses not happened. There are pockets of businesses which are underperforming. But if I look ahead longer term, my conviction on this model performing is extremely high. And always, you know, I focus in the last 18 months to transform Honeywell into three different companies. Next 18 months, I'm really going to focus to make automation as the best performing segment. So we just, you know, going to keep working on it.
Helpful. So I think on the call, you mentioned 2% price this year, but you didn't have incremental tariffs baked into your assumptions. But you know, local for local strategy is the essence of Honeywell, I think, and protecting regions such as China. Could you remind us again, though, your raw material exposure, steel and aluminum, and stepping back, you sounded like you could be more flexible really around price this year? So maybe what does that mean? And can you talk through that a bit more, whether you can maintain price costs in the green, even if inflation does tick up?
Yep. So I would say that's probably going to be one of the biggest variables to deal with in 2025 with the new changes coming in. I think in bigger scheme of things, the steel and aluminum tariffs have a very limited direct impact on us, but mostly indirect impact. Just the second order, our suppliers are going to see. So we need to watch that. Generally, our contracts protect us, but something to be observed as these things come into place. But the net impact of that would not be large. Same is true of the China tariffs. We worked very hard over the last few years to make our China supply chain very special, very focused on China. We have multiple factories to support China business. The import from China into the U.S. is not very large.
Therefore, the impact of that is not; it's there, but it's not material again. The really big deal for us is tariffs on Mexico. That number is hundreds of millions of dollars. We are working with our customer to create that sensitization on how do we manage, you know, customer expectation. We learned a lot during 2021, 2022 price changes. Those learnings, those systems are in place. But fundamentally, our model is that we will protect our margins. Passing through tariffs or leveraging other levers we have, to your point, will be the pathway to that. What's different, Andy, is between 2022 and now is we are getting direct material productivity. That was not an option. That card was not there on the table.
Because we are getting direct material productivity, we have to make a choice that if I have to protect my margin as a net goal and increase my volumes, what lever I pull in? Where do I go? The pricing lever? Where do I use productivity? Where do I use combination? And I and Mike are constantly working to find means to protect our margins. Our confidence is very high that we are going to make it happen. The thing here is this is like a goalpost which keeps moving. It was on, now it's moved 30 days out. Who knows 30 days from now what's going to happen? Maybe some other tariffs can pull forward. So then test of this is going to be how well we execute it while protecting our customers' interest and keeping our customers aligned with us and, you know, protecting our margins.
That's going to be, you know, name of the game here this time.
Helpful. I want to ask you one question about the separation. I'll open it up to the audience too if they have any questions in a second. So regarding the separation, I don't think we were overly surprised, you know, in the $1.5 billion-$2 billion one-time costs, the timing of the separation second half of 2026. But we're still under the impression that Aero and really the supply chain between Aero and automation were separate. So maybe you could get it done a little faster for a little less cost. We understand it's complicated, but can you opine on the potential to, you know, get it done faster or for lower cost?
Yeah, I mean, we, you know, we like to do it as early as we can, but we also take into account that we have integration of four companies going on as we speak. Some of them are material acquisitions. So that's a work in progress. We have to finish the Advanced Materials spin this year. And then we have to, you know, complete the Aero spin. So I think the goal there is to do everything flawlessly. What we learned in the spins we did in 2018, Resideo and Garrett, is that it's better to take 15 days extra versus trying to, you know, push through it because you want to set up those businesses for success and also set up Honeywell for success. But our spirit is we want to get it done as quickly as possible.
I think right now the target is to get the Advanced Materials done roughly by end of the year. And what we said was end of the year, early Q1. So we're kind of trending in that direction. And then Aerospace in the second half of 2026.
Any questions from the audience? Anyone want to ask a question?
I will continue.
Yeah.
So I know you were asked in the call about regional sales trends, but at what point, if any, do you begin? So again, this question, I'm kind of asking all companies, right? It's like China's been very big for you. Europe is pretty big for you, but that's kind of not where the growth is right now. You know, it's U.S., Middle East, India. So stepping back, you know, if you're a U.S. company focused on automation, you know, and aerospace is doing its own thing, do you see a bigger move toward deglobalization helping you? Or how do you, you know, what's the future look like in terms of where you focus?
I would say that I use the word nationalization and not deglobalization. I think every country wants to make product locally, which is not a surprise. I would do the same. And we need to make sure that where there's a scale and volume, we should be able to, if we can afford it, we will do it. But we, of course, can't afford it anywhere. I mean, where our priorities sit in, of course, U.S. has to be our priority. It's our largest revenue stream. It remains so, and we want to further benefit from the U.S. economy expansion. One thing which is we are seeing early shoots of benefit is as some of the manufacturing setup is happening in the U.S. for semiconductor and battery plants. We are also getting work in that in building automation.
I always remind everybody there's no plant can be set up without having a building. First, that's a 101. You have to first set up something. And in building automation, we do environmental controls, very critical for all these high-tech manufacturing, security, safety, you know. So it's not meaningful enough, but if this momentum continues, we will benefit from that. We are a large player in building automation. But somehow the nearshoring equals to discrete automation in many people's mind, which is fair. And our portfolio there doesn't align with that, but also, our portfolio aligns with building automation for those facilities. And we are going to get benefit from that as those things scale up. I mean, to the other questions, Europe and China definitely are not performing at the rate U.S. is performing. And that's why our guide reflects that.
We are conscious of the fact that we have a good presence in those regions, and they are flat at best, and therefore we have to be conscious of the factor. But we also see momentum in India and Middle East and ASEAN countries. So we are investing in that and benefit from it. The good news is the Honeywell footprint allows us to flex up and down depending on where the opportunity is. Because today we are at a snapshot of opportunity in 2025. Some regions are doing well and some are not doing well. But if we fast forward two years from now, things will change. And that's an optionality we will always have that we will be able to flex ourselves up where the opportunity exists. We do well in all regions. We do well in all countries, and everything is important for us.
Vimal, I want to dig into the segments a little bit more. Just back to aerospace for a second, right? You talked about it kind of normalizing a little bit, but it also has this huge backlog, as you talked about, even Bombardier, right? I think your guidance this year, Bombardier is mid- to high single-digit growth, been growing high single digits to mid double digits over the last few years. Why would it slow down that much if you've got this huge backlog on the OE side? I do get a lot of DOGE questions, as I'm sure you're getting a couple. Like anything that you're seeing on the defense side or anything, you know, that you can talk about there?
Look, I think the business, as I said a couple of minutes back, the business will continue to grow this year and next year. I think the drivers for growth are different for different aerospace companies. In our case, we have a certain mix of commercial, business jet, defense, and depending on each of those end markets and their aftermarket, that really determines the growth rate there. So our forecast is OE growth in double-digit, aftermarket in mid- to high-, and then defense, we do expect a mid-single-digit. I mean, the DOGE impact of that, given look, all our contracts are really long term. So we don't will it impact down the line? You know, I'm not going to speculate on that. I guess we haven't seen anything to offer any input on that.
But I would also offer that our business in defense outside U.S. is growing very rapidly. That's one of the largest growing segments because every country is spending a lot more defense spend. So think of NATO-friendly countries, Australia, Japan, Korea. So we are clearly seeing growth of our defense business from a low base, but at a very high rate. And that certainly helps to, you know, define that. I'm also, you know, excited in terms of the new products which Aero is creating and the momentum. I mentioned some of the best win years in 2024, but the momentum is going to continue because we are ramping up our R&D spend in Aero in 2025 because we see these opportunities ahead of us. And, you know, so far our R&D spend, Andy, has been at parity with industry, like just about four, just shy of 4%.
Because there's a perception that Honeywell underinvested in aerospace. That's not factually correct. Our R&D spend is at parity. We are ramping it up. So it'll go to north of 4% in 2025 itself. And we also have a very interesting dimension of having our R&D footprints not only in the U.S., in Phoenix, but also in Europe, in Czech Republic and Poland and in India. And when you true it up as if all of them were existing in the U.S., our R&D spend is north of 5%, which is best in class. So this business is because it has a massive pipeline of new products while we are looking at a 2025 guide and it looks, you know, what it looks. But what's coming ahead based upon the wins we have and R&D spend we are making, it's really very, very exciting on the things ahead there.
It's interesting, Vimal. So let me ask you about industrial automation. I already asked you, we talked a little bit about, you know, potential greenshoots. You are guiding to low single-digit down in 2025. But maybe just walking through the businesses a little bit more. I think you've talked about a product refresh helping you in PSS and you got the PPE exit should help you in the second half. You know, if you look at Intelligrated, it's down significantly last year, but orders are better. So, you know, maybe with the understanding you want to be conservative, what's holding you back from, you know, talking about some improvement in IA?
Yeah, so what we guided, Andy, was what's our proven delivery in the second half of the year. Second half of the year, we were low single-digit contractions. So that's what's a proven delivery and that's what we are forecasting. Things can always get better. You know, from a segment perspective, I would say process solution business is growing modestly aligned with their peers. So I won't report anything different for them. Our play in transportation, logistics and warehouse, our scanner business and our warehouse automation business, I think both will be flattish this year. Our personal productivity solution business, the scanning business, actually have a comps of Zebra royalty of last year. So because on a reported basis, numbers look different. The business is growing nicely in 2025 because of the refresh rates of large deals there.
Where we have challenges, where we have some still stocking in some of our sensors business, PPE business will be part of our portfolio for the first half. So there's some contraction there. So I think there are a few things which are pulling us back. But overall, that's my main focus area that how we continue to improve our performance in industrial automation and, you know, make it grow like the rest of Honeywell so that we can deliver a better performance.
Guide and then, you know, you alluded to building automation a bit, but you did grow 8%, which was quite a good result in Q4, low to mid single digit growth guide for 2025. We talked about it. It had some European and China exposure, so you want to be careful, but it seemed to consistently outperform really over the last, I don't know, it feels like a few years here. You didn't mention expectation for building products growth turning positive, so first, what do you think this segment arguably does better maybe than other segments, and, you know, why can't the growth momentum last and be a special easy comparison?
Look, Q4 was strong. I think what's working well for that business is the mix of solution and products. Solution part of the business is growing well. We finally got some share in data centers. We were like missing in action, and I couldn't have used where data center sitting on this year. I can use it now, so all the hyperscalers are slowly becoming our customers from our automation perspective. That therefore showing up in the numbers. It's a small base, but we are making a rapid progress. So solution business is getting help from that. The product side of the house business, I would say because of the global footprint, we are conscious of the fact the business is the footprint in China, the business is the footprint in Europe.
And therefore our guide reflects that element of reality that U.S. is doing well, but other parts are not doing well. And the shorts in the product business is a larger part of the business there. I'm also very confident about progress and performance of Access Solutions business we bought acquired last year. The business is performing on expected lines. We are going to meet our commitments on that business and that's certainly helping grow. So overall, I think the dynamics in BA business are positive. And we aspire to deliver strong results, you know, in line with our guide, you know, in 2025.
Vimal, I want to follow up on one thing you said because most platforms are kind of small at Honeywell. Like in solutions business, like the data center stuff, are we talking about $200 million nowadays? Like, you know, that kind of thing?
Yeah, we can talk hundreds of, you know, a few hundred million dollars. You know, think of any data center needs, you know, environmental controls. So our BMS system plays a role. It needs a special form of fire protection. We have some special system for data centers. We have a high share in that. And then after we acquired the Access Solutions business, we need a very sophisticated security system in data centers specifically, which are colo types. Nobody wants to go from this location to that location. So we have a, you know, a great offering in the Access Solutions business. So we have a very comprehensive portfolio. Couple that with a global footprint, program management capability. So we do present a compelling proposition, but this is a case in which we have to regain share from something we did not pay attention in, you know, till 2022.
We are making good progress. I won't say I won't take a victory lap here, but this is something we are getting traction here.
Very interesting, and then moving to ESS, we know you've highlighted energy transition, you know, megatrend support, but you also bought an LNG business, so I think you've got pretty good balance in that business, so maybe just talk to us about, you know, the future of that business, and then I always hear like UOP orders are really strong, but then it doesn't seem to convert, so like maybe talk about that too and, you know, how that's going to manifest in 2025.
So, you know, the way I look at ESS business we are building is we're building in the four verticals: refining, petrochemicals, gas, and renewable fuels. And our acquisition of gas was to fill the, you know, capability gap we had in liquefaction in gas. And with the, you know, I would say the momentum in LNG, that certainly will help us. And the rest of the portfolio, you know, we have the right portfolio in the world, which requires energy security, but also needs, you know, the energy transition. And I think it's a decades-long trend and we are going to benefit from that. Now this year, I mean, UOP will do well. We have a good backlog. The projects part of the UOP is carrying a good backlog. So that will show up in our numbers as the year progress.
The projects are never linear depending on the shipment times and the contractual commitments. But we do expect a good year from UOP, including the margin expansion here. And overall, I remain very bullish on that business. It has some unique capabilities, which our customers really like.
Are you changing anything in the strategy given the new U.S. administration or kind of?
We were always balanced. You know, if you our business is called Energy and Sustainability Solutions. You need both. You need to transition from today to tomorrow, which is going to take decades. We have been consistent in that. This cannot happen overnight. And, you know, the traditional solution of refining and petrochemical will stay here because these operation plants are running. We do see slow move to renewable fuels like hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel, not at a fast pace, but they are moving there. But now we see good momentum on LNG. And if you, again, I'm going to remind our business model is win the process technology, come at the back end and win process automation. And our win rates tend to be high. We can't win everything.
I mean, that's why this combination of having the same customer set, joint offering. We have a joint offering of UOP and process solution that really makes a distinction to us in terms of our business model there.
So then quickly on Quantinuum, you highlighted progressing toward Quantinuum's technical milestones for an eventual IPO. Maybe just lay out for us what internal milestones you're tracking and what would you like to see from the business in order to signal an IPO. I think you announced a partnership with SoftBank recently, so that's encouraging. But as you know, some in the tech community think quantum computing is still many years away from being useful. So maybe you could comment on that?
So I would say a lot of help from the media to make quantum as a point of conversation. You know, if I was sitting here a year back explaining quantum, most people will say he's losing his brain. But now that's not the case. You know, the key for us is the way to think about it is that as the AI is being used in some of the critical sectors, specifically in pharmaceutical life sciences, molecule discovery, the challenge there is there's not enough data set which is available to train a model. Therefore, the models are going to take longer time to get accurate. Quantum solves that problem because quantum compute power is way higher compared to normal classical compute. And in those applications, it becomes a very relevant platform to do that. The question is, how do you get there?
So when quantum computer becomes useful, what's a milestone you have to hit? The magic number is 100 qubits. So we all learned a thing called GPUs in last year. Everybody wants to know about GPU. We also have to learn a new terminology called QPUs, quantum processing units. And 100 qubits is that magical number where it becomes more powerful than a classical computer of any type in any combination. So think of this being a complement to a classical compute. It doesn't replace it. It complements it where classical compute cannot really perform. And we do expect to hit a 100 qubit machine by end of 2026 or early 2027, which really will be then linking to the IPO of this business because that's a milestone everybody's looking at. And now this machine is usable for our commercial use, which today is a lesser use.
And, you know, right now we are going to go through another IPO. I'm sorry, another fundraise for this business so that we have enough money to get to the IPO. What's the right time? I mean, I'll be speculating it, but getting this machine to the right qualification is going to be the point when we can take this business to IPO. But I remain very positive. I think the investment Honeywell made were the right investments. And at the right time, our shareholder will benefit from the valuation we'll get when we'll monetize this business.
So before I run out of time, Vimal, I want to ask you a question I'm asking all companies. I've asked you last year. Just, so what are the top two or three innovations and structural changes affecting your company over the next five years? Are there any emerging industry trends that are perhaps being overlooked in the current discourse?
I would say the biggest trend I see is in, you know, in context of Honeywell: the move towards autonomy. I think this is something which is not discussed enough. We kind of discuss things in isolation. There are three trends which are coming together for a company like us. First is ability to collect data on cloud. Second is 5G, which allows you to collect data without wires because collecting data, the biggest inhibition is you have to put a lot of wires, cables. It's not easy. Many, many buildings, many, many plants. And finally, the AI. So how do you use the three together and build a solution which takes the automation towards autonomy? I'll give one or two examples. Think about a cockpit for a plane. How do we supplement a pilot to have more data so that they can navigate the plane more safely?
But eventually one day, the pilot, the cockpit can have one pilot and not two. That's autonomy. Autonomy doesn't mean things go away and become fully automated over a period of time. Same will be true for an industrial plant. Can we provide tools to an operator or to a technician so they can run their operation with a lesser skilled person versus a higher skilled person? So essentially, autonomy means taking the human judgment to a higher level and leaving the tasks which are repeatable to AI and use cloud computing for that. So I'm really excited. I think that's going to be a pathway for our growth on a longer period of time. And, you know, we are working feverishly to make it happen.
Great. So I got 15 seconds. I probably should not ask another question. We very much appreciate the time, Vimal.
Thank you very much. Thank you for having me here, and enjoy Miami the next couple of days.
Thank you.
Thank you.