Thanks so much. The opening presentation, we have Honeywell. Thanks so much, Sean, thank you. Presenting we have Mike Madsen, President and CEO of Honeywell Aerospace. I think Mike has a couple of slides that he will present, and then we're gonna go into fireside style chat. Mike, welcome. Welcome to London. Great to have you here.
Likewise. Thank you, Andrew. Good morning to everybody, we'll get right into it. Just a few slides, maybe paint a picture of what the business is looking like this year and a few things that we see shaping up over the next few years. First of all, I would say, you know, we feel very fortunate to be in the aerospace business right now. It's a great time to be an aerospace supplier. I've never seen a setup as strong and positive as it is right now. Strong OEM growth in both air transport and business aviation, strong aftermarket in both areas, and I think a stabilizing and more clear set of defense priorities, all very, very encouraging.
From a Honeywell perspective, we feel like we're very well positioned to take advantage of those secular trends, in particular based on our very attractive cost position as we all went through the cycle in 2020 and 2021, I think we adhered to the adage of not letting a crisis go to waste with regard to fixed cost management. Great positions in defense, F-35, national programs, Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, long-range strike, and a few others just to name those. Our space franchises. We don't talk a whole lot about space, but we're very proud of what we do there, particularly with stabilization and pointing systems.
When we spoke the last time, I think a year or so ago, Andrew, we had won about three and a half billion dollars worth of business in the advanced air mobility space. That's now about $7 billion. What a difference a year makes. That continues to be an attractive space for us, not only because of the market itself, but because of the opportunity it's giving us to develop technologies and systems that will be very relevant in the future for aerospace in all market verticals. Productivity improvements. I get asked the question sometimes, "Well, will the margin expansion continue?" The short answer is yes. Still a lot of opportunity with regard to digitized processes and automation, not only with our administrative processes, but also in our factories.
You can see some of the figures there and what we've achieved to date. Market outlook, as I mentioned, is looking very strong, and I think it's going to stay that way for the next few years, despite some of the challenges that we see in the broader economy. We're seeing double-digit growth in air transport, both in the aftermarket as well as in the OEM space. Business aviation, sort of a mid-single digit outlook, and then defense, low to mid-single digits as well. Importantly, that defense piece will return to growth for us this year. We're seeing that already in Q1.
I look at our investment priorities, and we'll talk more about this, I'm certain, today, I would say a wide range of technologies that we're continuing to invest into, all of them associated with the shifting priorities of the aerospace industry. More electrification in particular. That means power generation, power generation and distribution, actuation, and electric systems to help us cool and pressurize the cabin. All of those are, I think, going to be increasingly relevant in a greener aircraft industry going forward. The next generation cockpit, our Anthem cockpit, which we're very proud of for all market verticals, has been sold into the business aviation and also the advanced air mobility space, but has a real potential in general aviation, air transport, and military as well.
I talked a little bit about advanced air mobility and just kind of a summary of some of our recent wins. In particular, I would mention the Hyundai Supernal win that we had with integrated avionics and other systems in play there as well. We're starting to see the OEM base shift a little bit there from just the new entrants that we saw a few years ago to some of the more established players, both in aerospace, such as Textron, and now with Hyundai coming into the space as well. $7 billion in content wins so far. Still a strong pipeline of opportunity there.
Again, I'm really happy with this because it gives us an opportunity, as I mentioned, to develop some of these technologies for application to the general aviation, business aviation, air transport, and defense spaces. Sustainability. Right now, a lot of offerings that provide sort of these low single digit reductions in carbon dioxide emissions as well as fuel savings. Honeywell Flight Efficiency, it used to be called Forge Flight Efficiency. It still has Forge in it. In use on about 3,000 aircraft today, enabling operators to provide more efficient routing and also fuel management on their ground operations. Hybrid electric power generation with power generation levels of 200 kW to 1 MW.
We've tested our 1 MW generator, you can see it in the center of the slide there, working quite well and entry into service of those systems in the latter part of the decade. Of course, hydrogen as a fuel as well as an element within a fuel cell itself. With our Ballard acquisition that we did a few years ago, we're well positioned in that space and very excited about it. In summary, you can see very strong in all market verticals. Very excited to see the recovery that we've seen in the industry. It's quite strong actually. Demand continues to build and output continues to increase as well. It's a great position to be in, especially compared to a couple of years ago.
Execution remains at the forefront of everything we do. With that, Andrew, I'll turn it back to you.
Yeah, no, Mike, thanks so much for being here. You know, maybe we can start with a lot of questions on Aero outlook for 2023. You know, I think there are some sort of variables in your outlook as it relates to margin. Since you guys reported fourth quarter earnings, what have you been seeing in the business? How have the commercial and defense supply chains trended, and what are you seeing in the wide-body recovery? Why don't we start there?
Well, first of all, there's no question we remain in a supply-constrained environment. Demand is not a challenge for us right now. In our backlog, we continue to see growth. As a data point there, we've had about $18 billion in business wins in the last two years. You compare that to our revenue over those two years, it's quite significant. We are seeing some really positive developments in supply chain and output. Right now I'm seeing output up about 15%-20% year-over-year, and continuing to build momentum, both in terms of what our suppliers are able to commit to and also the fidelity of those commitments as we move through the quarter. We're seeing some positive trends in output, which is good.
I think that will start to recouple with demand in the latter part of this year, and then we'll start to see backlog stabilizing as we go into 2024. Seeing good output from the supply base. In terms of the market trends, very strong still in the aftermarket side of things, particularly in air transport. We're seeing wide-body growth now with the China situation evolving. We're seeing wide-body growth starting to come back. In fact, the growth rate with wide-body flight hours is about 2x what we're seeing in narrow body right now. Starting to come back to a level that is more like what we're used to. I think we've still got another probably year to a year and a half before we're all the way back to 2019 levels on flight hours, though.
On just wide-body recovery, I think one of your competitors had an analyst there recently and sort of stated that the wide-body recovery in China was sort of maybe ahead. They were more conservative. You know, I know Honeywell is always very conservative. We have a lot of debates with investors about just how conservative Honeywell is, but we think sort of sets the standard for beat-and- race. I'll give that to Sean. But, yeah, where are you versus the expectation of the wide-body recovery?
I would say it's starting to accelerate is the way I would describe it. I think we'll see narrow-body flight hours back at 2019 levels by the end of the year, maybe early 2024, and then probably late 2024 for wide body. It depends a little bit on what we see in Europe as well. You know, China's an important market, but still relatively small in terms of global flight hours. I think it's about 12% or 13% of total flight hours, but it is coming back. It's not just within China, of course, it's travel to and from China a cross the Asia region. It's exciting to see, 'cause I think I've mentioned it before, in terms of a revenue base, we have about three times the revenue per flight hour on a wide-body aircraft.
Got you.
As we do on a narrow body. Good to see that coming back.
What are the near-term source of uncertainty? You know, how do you bracket it? I think also, you know, with OE payments, big question. You know, when do you think that sort of you have more certainty on that in the year?
On the OE side?
Yeah.
I would say the OE side remains pretty strong, well, both business aviation and air transport, we're seeing solid double-digit growth in demand. In fact, it's a bit of a contest to try to keep up with the demand right now.
Right.
on the OE side, which is a challenge if you're in operations, but it's not a bad problem to have.
Okay.
We're watching very closely the order books. We stay closely aligned, of course, with Airbus and Boeing. I'll say, by the way, I think Airbus and Boeing have done a very good job of keeping the supply base informed on what they're planning to build and seeking feedback from the entire supply base on what, you know, the supply base can support. I think they're doing the best they can, I feel like that alignment is pretty tight. We're watching the order books there. We're watching the order books with business aviation. No signs of any sort of push-outs, cancellations, deferral of options, anything like that yet.
You know, business aviation aftermarket, I didn't mention that earlier, but still growing, of course, at a much slower rate than it did in 2021 and 2022, where we saw, I don't know, 20% or 30% increases in flight hours. It seems to be stabilizing sort of at a low single-digit growth rate.
Okay.
particularly strong with the fractionals and corporate flight departments.
Okay.
A little softer with the charters and the managed flight services folks. Stabilizing at, I think, what will be a longer-term growth rate in the low single digits. We'll watch that real closely. I think if there's one area that we monitor that's tightly related to the economy, it's that business aviation.
Gotcha. Yeah.
Yeah.
So on the commercial, you know, just for the audience, how do you see build rates evolving over the next three years? Taking a longer-term view, you know, what are the key source of uncertainty bottlenecks? Why don't we start there?
I think that clearly this year the build rates are quite high. That's the strongest sector we're seeing right now is air transport OEM. I think there's enough backlog that that's gonna continue into next year and probably into 2025. Then we'll see. Beyond that, we'll have to see if there's a big shift in the economy or something that could slow things down. So much catching up to do right now. The demand from airlines for aircraft is been bottled up now for about a year and a half. We started really seeing the order rates pick up in 2021. I don't think that we're gonna see much of a slowdown there. I think the supply base will continue to accelerate.
We'll see that demand continue to grow, and we'll probably recouple next year, early next year. I don't think that that's going to slow down. If there's any areas of uncertainty, it would probably be, you know, if global credit markets really have a challenge, and it could slow down things with the leasing companies. I don't see any signs of that yet.
In terms of supply chain over the next three years, like in the dialogue with supply chain, what are the key bottlenecks that need to get better over the next three years?
Labor.
Labor.
It's all about labor. We're not yet at a point where we're challenging the capital capacity of the supply base. You know, I think we'll probably be there in the 2025 timeframe, not now and probably not even in the first half of 2024, maybe even all of 2024. It's much better than it was a year ago with the electronic supply chain.
Mm-hmm.
I would say mechanical is still working to recover, and it's labor-based. Enough people in the workforce to be able to produce all the parts we need. We're continuing to work on dual sourcing, insourcing where it makes sense, looking at selective automation where it makes sense, alternate means of manufacturing, everything that everyone else is doing. You know when you're producing it close to 20% year-over-year and then trying to get more-
Right.
It's not a bad place to be really.
No. That's very good to hear. You know, one of the questions we get, and I think it's particularly relevant to Honeywell, what are your thoughts on the timing of the next big commercial airframe program? How do you think about that?
You know, I think about that quite a bit. I think it's gonna be the end of the decade, frankly. The reason is, you know, there's a lot of great aircraft out there. The A350 and the 787 are still, you know, relatively new aircraft. Airbus has the A321 and the neo and the XLR coming along, very strong aircraft, and of course, the MAX now back in production. I think that, barring a big shift in fuel prices or something that drives a change in the demand for sort of that intermediate length segment, I don't know that we're gonna see another big investment in aircraft for a while. We're sort of planning around that 2028-2030 timeframe.
When would R&D sort of have to pick up to meet that?
Three to four years from now.
Okay.
Yeah. 2026 timeframe, 2027 timeframe.
Excellent. Maybe, you know, you alluded to business aviation, can we talk about sort of any structural changes and drivers in the post-COVID world, should we look at this market any differently?
Well, it absolutely has changed. What we saw was an enormous increase in non-corporate flight activity on business aircraft post-2020, post-COVID. A lot of folks who I presume, as, you know, flew, premium cabin in the commercial or transport space are now flying private. You see that in the fractional products, the card products from, companies like NetJets and Flexjet, big increase in demand there. So far that has not slowed down or gone down. I think that's there to stay. Kind of a shift over along with sort of this normal rate of corporate travel as that's come back over the last year and a half. I'd say that's a big change from what we saw in 2019. Driving demand for new aircraft as well through those, through those fractional operators.
ifting to defense and space. What are the key trends, you know, as I said, you have some in your slide deck, but, you know, I think I don't know how much detail you can share, how much analysis you've done, but, you know, the latest president's budget, what's key trends, programs, and noteworthy thing in the latest president budget that stands out to Honeywell specifically?
We spend a lot of time going through that, obviously, and all the components within the budget. You know, we participate primarily in the RDT&E, the O&M, and the procurement elements of the budget, much less in MILCON and military personnel elements of the budget. There's quite a bit of transparency. I would say kind of starting at a macro level, it's stabilized, and it's more clear. It was more clear last year, it's more clear this year where the priorities are, and those priorities have changed substantially since 2019. 2018, 2019 timeframe really still all about the conflicts that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, now pivoted much more toward a defense of the Asia Pacific region, preparation more toward a great peer conflict sort of posture.
What that means is platforms like the F-35, long-range strike, shipborne systems, aircraft, on aircraft, on ships, as well as the ships themselves, communication systems, satellite systems, a recapitalization and improvement of the nuclear triad have all been prominent areas of the budget.
Right.
We participate in all of those. We're seeing the budget shift from sort of fifth-generation aircraft, ground-based systems, more toward these systems.
Yeah.
Superimposed on top of that, with the situation in Ukraine right now, we're starting to see a demand increase for navigation products with missiles and munitions.
Right.
Areas. We're starting to see that roll through, with things like the GMLRS, HIMARS, and systems like that. We're starting to see demand pick up there.
Should we be thinking that this plays into Honeywell's strength?
Yeah, I think so. It plays into our strength, certainly on the space side, on the advanced aircraft side, on the RF and SATCOM systems side, pointing and navigation systems for satellites, and now of course with the navigation products. I think we're gonna see a significant uptick there in the next couple of years as that demand firms up.
you know, I think historically you sort of highlighted international sales being important for Honeywell. How do you see the evolution of international sales over the next several years?
Well, I think that's also an area that's gonna get revitalized. We're already seeing some interest. You've seen the countries in Europe starting to increase their defense spending, kind of getting closer to that 2% of GDP number that NATO always advocates. What that's translating to is two things. One is demand for U.S.-based systems as well as indigenous systems.
Right.
That's an area that we're focused on, is partnering closely with the OEMs of those systems so we can participate to a greater extent in those sales as well as just the U.S. systems. We've had a partnership recently that we talked about with Civitanavi. That was based on being able to play a larger role in navigation products here in Europe, for example.
I think last spring, we sort of when it was way too early to figure out what was happening, you and I sort of spoke about it in Deer Valley.
Yep.
you know, it is interesting. It seems that the change that's ongoing is more structural in nature than I think we would've guessed even a year ago. Maybe looking at the direct impact on the budgets, maybe it's slower than we would've guessed. How and when will this impact Honeywell?
Well, it's starting to impact us now. We'll be back to a growth posture in 2023. I anticipate growth in 2024 and 2025 as well. You know, it just takes time for priorities to get substantiated and instituted in the budgets and for those budgets to get approved. You know, we went through a cycle last year where it took a long time for the budget to get approved in the defense, the defense budget that is. That's done, and now we're starting to see that flow. It's now.
Okay.
It's really right now. Yeah.
That's good. you know, one of the initiatives, you have sort of been highlighting is, you know, with Aero, is retrofits, modification, and upgrades. I think you sort of highlighted this as a high-margin opportunity, $800 million-$1 billion next year. Can we just talk about where we are, where do we stand, and what's the progress like?
Yeah. Retrofits, mods, upgrades, services, all of those play an important role for us in enabling us to grow faster than the market. We just kind of rise with the tide. We don't wanna do that. We had targeted last year $950 million in retrofit, mod, and upgrade revenue. We actually came in about $100 million higher than that.
Okay.
It's gonna be $1.1 billion this year.
Okay.
I anticipate that to continue to go up at about a 10% CAGR. That may be conservative. We have some really exciting SATCOM systems coming out in 2024. Think a Ka-based SATCOM system that allows you to use multiple constellations in the same system, so you can switch back and forth between the constellations, including WGS constellation for the defense applications. We're excited about that. A continued stream of Epic cockpit upgrades as well. That business is gonna continue to grow, and we're really happy about that. It solves customer problems. It's a great source of decoupled revenue for us.
Right.
It's short cycle, which I like in the aerospace business. Short cycle's always good.
Interesting. You think all the trends that sort of supported that performance is still there?
Absolutely. We're seeing the orders come in, and we've got a strong pipeline of products that we're developing to support that as well.
That's great.
Yep.
You know, services and connectivity.
Yeah.
always, you know, I just remember every time you go to Paris, you know, there's a big services and connectivity presentation.
Yep.
You know.
There will be again this year.
Can we just talk about what's there, what are the big opportunities for you over the next several years there, key programs?
Well, I mentioned the multi-constellation Ka-band system.
Yes.
Another one that we've got coming out at the end of this year is a cockpit-based L-band system. You know, if you think about today, cockpit communications are mostly HF radio. It's not as reliable as we'd like it to be. It's heavy. The systems are heavy, and they have limited functionality. It's basically voice communication. We have a system coming out at the end of this year, the Aspire 350 product, that's an L-band system that will allow the operators to replace one or both of the HF radios in the cockpit. People sometimes say, "Are you guys playing a bigger role in HF radios?" I say, "No, we're replacing them, and with something that's more reliable, allows voice communications, text communications, aircraft data communications, think ACARS communications, all of those in one system." That's coming out.
Beyond that, we're also looking at and have just started development work on systems that'll be what I call an all-in-one. Think an antenna on top for SATCOM and an antenna on the bottom for air-to-ground. We think particularly for continental transport, that'll be very attractive. Again, all aimed at allowing operators to use the lowest cost network to do their comms and having a choice.
You had a slide just maybe sort of shifting to R&D priorities. Where are we in the R&D cycle? What are the key R&D priorities in Aero? As I said, you did have a slide, maybe we can sort of dive into the roadmap for the next, you know, three, four years.
Yeah. Really, I would say a couple things. Some traditional sort of areas of investment, but also I think aerospace is at one of those watershed points. You know, you think about when pressurized aircraft first were developed, and then you think about the dawn of the jet age in the late fifties and early sixties. I think we're at another one of those points right now with electrification. It's been brought about due to the advent of higher voltage DC power systems, 400, 800, 900 volt systems that enable us to do things with electronics that used to be done with hydraulics, pneumatics. That's gonna take a lot of weight off the aircraft. It's going to be more reliable, more green, because you don't need to use bleed air off engines to run things like cabin pressurization systems.
What that does though, is it makes a significant change in the technology that's on the aircraft. Think, larger generators, electric actuation, electric cooling systems, vapor cycle-based cooling systems for the aircraft instead of air cycle machines. We're excited about that because it gives us a chance to play, quite frankly, a larger role in some systems that we've been just component providers in.
Mm-hmm.
Like aircraft surface actuation. We're moving into that space in a big way, using the advanced air mobility investments that we're making.
Right
as a way to develop that technology and reapply it. Compact fly-by-wire flight controls, electromechanical actuation, electric air pump systems for cabin pressurization, vapor cycle cooling, and then of course, generators and power distribution systems. Those are sort of the newer areas superimposed on top of our HTF product line, our business jet engine product line, which is in the middle of a development cycle right now for a next generation engine that will be available in about three years. The T-55 recapitalization that we're doing for the U.S. Army with the 714C. To name a couple, and I think also navigation, I mentioned earlier, alternate navigation is another area of focus for us. The world is going to wanna operate in an environment where they cannot rely solely on GPS navigation. Systems today use GPS and inertial navigators.
We're gonna continue that, but also developing things like optical and celestial navigation systems to go on top of that.
A lot of things in the funnel. Does that mean that R&D, you can do it with the current level of R&D by being more efficient? Does that mean that sort of we're entering new R&D cycle for Honeywell Aero?
Both. Both. We'll continue to have R&D levels that are in the 5% to 8% of revenue is kind of where we'd like to operate. We're there now. We'll continue to do that, but of course, as revenue grows, that investment level will come up. Then we're always looking at efficiency. You don't hear about Honeywell having development program problems.
Right.
We constantly look at ways to shorten cycle time and reduce estimate to complete EACs. The last, I don't know, five years I've run a net negative EAC growth on my programs.
Okay.
Small increases, larger decreases, and we're constantly driving that mindset of how do we do things faster with less money and more effectively in our development program execution. It's one of our strengths, actually.
the scale is basically the increasing scale of the business because it sounds.
Yep
there's a lot of revenue coming. It will effectively pay for.
That's right. That allows us to reinvest in those products at a similar or maybe even slightly increased rate as a percent of sales.
Okay.
Yeah.
That's great. You know, energy transition, and I think you have addressed a lot of this stuff. You know, clearly fuel efficiency, big focus for you. I think for Honeywell, just given other things you do, I think it's a much broader story. A, can you just talk about fuel efficiency, you know, your digital capabilities, just making aircraft more efficient, but then also, you know, you do have the sustainable aviation fuel collaboration with PMT. Because as I said, I think very few of your peers can deliver a much more comprehensive solution than the peers. Can you talk about that?
We try to close the loop on that. We work very closely with Lucian Boldea and his, you know, my peer over in PMT. I talk to Lucian almost every day about SAF 'cause it's not just, well, what is SAF? We wanna make certain that we're producing SAF that's optimized for the aviation industry. Honeywell is the world leader in the technologies to produce sustainable aviation fuel. We've had this technology for over 20 years. The question isn't how to produce SAF, it's how best to produce SAF. We wanna produce a sustainable aviation fuel that maximizes the heating value, has the right lubricity properties, the right anti-corrosion properties. Working closely with him and our partners in the refining industry to be able to not only show how to do it, but actually produce it.
Of course, getting our products ready to run on SAF. Our products will all be ready to go 100% on sustainable aviation fuel by 2025. It's really just a matter of running the necessary tests to demonstrate compatibility. It's not from a risk perspective, it's pretty low risk. We're doing that and I think sustainable aviation fuel, along with the things we're doing today to improve the efficiency of engines, APUs-Flight efficiency, flight routing, fuel management and things like that will be the solution for the next, say, five to 15 years. Beyond that, hydrogen will play a larger role. Hybrid systems, think batteries combined with turbo machines, fuel cells combined with turbo machines that allow you to optimize your power levels, your emissions, your fuel consumption on the ground versus in the air.
That'll be sort of the solution for 2035 and on. We're working on both of those simultaneously.
Gotcha. Maybe we can talk about urban air mobility because frankly, you know, we did a call with you, and I was a bit skeptical. Ron had a conference on emerging trends last year, and I think every startup.
Yeah.
Every urban air mobility startup that I had drinks with, like, basically was using your technology.
Yeah.
You know, what has happened in the past year, and what is the competitive landscape here? Because you seem to be doing very, very well there. Who is your competition, and what differentiates Honeywell there, and how have you been able to sort of get such a nice chunk of this business?
Well, I'll tell you, it's an exciting space. First of all, I believe strongly in the space. Crew costs are a significant part of airline and cargo operators', right, expense. It's also hard. I don't know if anybody's noticed there's a pilot shortage. There's also a shortage of people to operate on the ground. You know, people can get hurt. Equipment doesn't get hurt. People get hurt. From a safety perspective, a cost perspective, a capacity perspective, there's a lot of energy around how do we operate aircraft, not just advanced air mobility and urban air mobility aircraft, but regular aircraft with reduced crew operations. You think about when a company flies cargo from the U.S. to China, there's four people on board that airplane, four pilots on board that airplane.
Do we need to have four pilots on board that airplane? How do we operate the aircraft with less crew? How do we enable people operating urban air mobility and cargo vehicles, short-haul cargo vehicles to do so with less, you know, maybe, a pilot operation that requires less training, right?
Mm-hmm.
Think of more as an operator and less as a pilot.
Yeah.
If we're gonna have an operation that moves cargo 150 km from a cross-dock facility to a warehouse, and it requires a 1,500 hr ATP pilot, we're not doing it right. We believe that there's gonna be this macro force that will continue on how to operate with less, less crew, and more autonomously. It's really not a technology problem as much as it is a regulatory problem. It's both.
Yeah.
We've got to solve both. We're excited about that space, not only because of the prospect for moving short, medium range, and even long range cargo autonomously, but of course, urban air taxis and mobility in that regard, and the ability to apply those technologies back into other aircraft. Regular, you know, normal aircraft, I'll say, historically.
Right.
You know, conventional aircraft perhaps. That's why we're investing in the space because it is the future. It brings to bear all of our capabilities as a systems integrator, which plays to our strength. We're also seeing a very interesting evolution in this area with the OEMs. It was the startups. The startups are still there. We're starting to see traditional aerospace companies come into play here, like Textron with their acquisition of Pipistrel and the great work that they're doing, by the way, with eAviation at Textron. Very exciting. Now also some entrants like Hyundai coming into this place, which makes total sense given their expertise in electric systems in particular.
It's not just a technology development effort, it's a shaping of regulations, and it's a partnership with, in some cases, new customers.
Is it fair to say, and maybe I'm incorrect, but it does seem that as the labor markets has evolved over the past 12 months, pilot shortage sort of seems to be near term pilot shortage o n this cargo versus passenger. There's sharper focus there. Is that a fair statement?
Yes, it is. I really think that cargo, frankly, will be the leader in this reduced pilot operation and ultimately single and autonomous operation. If you think about an eVTOL that can move 1,000 kg of freight from a multimodal cross-dock facility, you know, think shipping containers coming in on a truck or a train, the ability to then disaggregate that and move it without an airport from that cross-dock facility to a warehouse where electric vans can then deliver it to your home. As more and more e-commerce takes hold, the capillaries in that network are gonna continue to increase. We can't build more roads, and we don't really wanna build more airports. I think eVTOL cargo is gonna play an important role in that ecosystem.
How has the timeline in the past 12 months, timeline for commercialization, evolved? You know, maybe we have four minutes left. Maybe we can talk about sort of the regulatory, because you clearly sort of highlight that it's becoming particular for cargo. It's more of a regulatory issue than technology issue. A, maybe you can address timeline for commercialization, evolution over the past 12 months, and how is the regulatory environment evolving?
Well, it's moved a little to the right in terms of the commercialization of the products. We were looking at, say, 2024, 2025. I think it's gonna be more like 2025, 2026 for the first entrants right now.
Okay.
Then ramping pretty rapidly in the 28-30 timeframe.
Okay.
I have to say that from a regulatory perspective, some positive developments. EASA really led the way with the rulemaking around how to certify one of these vehicles. We're starting to see the FAA align now with that, which is good because you don't want two different sets of rules. You want the same vehicle to operate in both places. Of course, the other agencies are starting to fall in line too. That's a good sign, and I can tell you that all the companies we're working with, you know, normal technical hurdles that they run into. Surprisingly, I say, or maybe not surprisingly, moving along quite well. I think it'll be 2026, 2027 though before these vehicles are, you know, 2025, 2026 timeframe perhaps when they get certified.
What are the political hurdles to adoption? You know, is there a partisan difference though? You know.
I'm not seeing partisan differences. I think that people are keenly interested in noise. They're keenly interested in the regulations around where these vehicles will operate and that they can do so safely, and all of that's appropriate of course. It's important to be, you know, conscious of those things. Seems to be getting solved in time, and I think particularly EASA and FAA are doing a nice job of staying abreast on that.
I guess we have two minutes. I'll ask about Anthem. You highlighted it. Can you just talk about it?
Very excited about Anthem. Not just for the advanced air mobility space, but for all markets. Look, the thing that's interesting about Anthem, and if you come see our technology labs in Phoenix, you'll see what I'm talking about. A cabinet that, you know, was the size of a rollaboard suitcase that had 40 or 50 pounds of equipment, and it is now replaced by a module the size of a book that weighs less than half of what the systems that went into these cabinets. One module does what three did before. Instead of a big rack like this that goes in an avionics bay in an airplane, you're talking about things that are the size of a book.
The ability to not only locate those where you wanna place them in the aircraft, but be able to host other processing on the aircraft, which takes systems off, takes weight off. It's lighter weight, higher power, more capable, always connected, tailorable. The screens can be tailored to different airlines and operators' requirements. It's got a built-in web browser. A user interface that if you know how to use an iPad, you know how to use Anthem. It's that simple. It's very easy to use. When we talk about moving to reduced crew operations, part of that is not just fewer crew members, but crew members that don't have to be so highly trained in something like an avionics system. It's intuitive for them. That'll be important as we start to talk about the proliferation of these devices.
Real excited. It'll be certified in a couple years here. It's about halfway through the development right now. We've got it flying on a Pilatus PC-12, and it's working great.
Just in conclusion, just to summarize what you're saying, it does seem that year-to-date things are as good as you've expected. Supply chain is on track.
Yep.
Mix is getting better.
Yep.
You know, We're still in March.
Yep.
It's still early, you know, the message seems to be as good as expected, maybe some upsides, obviously some economic uncertainty. You know, clearly the message here, a lot of opportunities for growth, profitable growth beyond 2023. Is that a fair way to summarize?
I couldn't have said it better myself, Andrew.
Thank you so much.
Yep. Thank you.
Thank you.