Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)
NYSE: LEVI · Real-Time Price · USD
20.06
-0.29 (-1.43%)
Sep 10, 2026, 1:49 PM EDT - Market open
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q4 2019

Jan 30, 2020

Operator

This conference is being recorded and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the company. A telephone replay will be available two hours after the completion of this call through February 5, 2020. Please use conference ID 2979134. This conference call also is being broadcast over the internet, and a replay of the webcast will be accessible for one quarter on the company's website, levistrauss.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Aida Orphan, Senior Director, Investor Relations and Risk Management at Levi Strauss & Co.

Aida Orphan
Senior Director of Investor Relations and Risk Management, Levi Strauss

Thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss the results for our fourth quarter and full fiscal year for 2019. Joining me on today's call are Chip Bergh, President and CEO of Levi Strauss, and Harmit Singh, our Executive Vice President and CFO. We have posted complete quarter four and full year financial results in our earnings release on our IR section of our website, investors.levistrauss.com. The link to the webcast of today's conference call can also be found on our site. We'd like to remind everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements on this call, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. Please review our filings with the SEC for a discussion of the factors that could cause the results to differ.

Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today's date. We disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the earnings release on our IR website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results. Finally, this call, in its entirety, is being webcast on our IR website, and a replay of this call will be available on the website shortly. Today's call is scheduled for one hour, so please limit yourself to one question at a time to give others the opportunity to have their questions addressed. Now I'd like to turn over the call to Chip.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Thanks, Aida. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. 2019 was a historic year for the company. We returned to the public equity markets with our IPO last spring, maintained focus on what we could control in a challenging environment, and executed against our objectives. We're pleased with the financial results we delivered and the progress we've made toward becoming a leading global lifestyle brand. The backbone of our success remains the strategic initiatives we've implemented to diversify our business by expanding our direct-to-consumer presence and growing internationally and across categories. On the back of double-digit growth last year, we delivered revenues of $5.8 billion in 2019, up 3% on a reported basis and 6% in constant currency.

We did this despite facing several challenges, both expected and unexpected, not the least of which was having no benefit of a Black Friday week in the fourth quarter. That impact, in combination with our distributor acquisition in South America and the unrest in Hong Kong, cost the company a point of growth for the full year. Growth was driven by diversification and included the following highlights, all in constant currency on a full-year basis. Our growth internationally was broad-based, with Europe growing 13% and Asia 10%. Direct-to-consumer grew 10%, and within that, e-commerce grew 18%, and womens and tops were particularly strong, each up 14% for the year. The Levi's brand had another strong year, maintaining its position at the center of culture and growing 7% for the year on the back of 13% the prior year.

We continue to assert ourselves as the inventors of denim and the leader of the category, connecting with consumers through innovative shopping experiences, leading fits and styles, and exciting new collaborations, all while redefining our industry. Levi's continues to be the partner of choice for influencers, artists, iconic characters, and technology companies alike. In 2019, we unveiled several diverse creative collaborations with partners including Star Wars, Hello Kitty, and Stranger Things. We worked with Nike to launch an exclusive in-demand collection of footwear, and we partnered with Google to create an improved version of Jacquard, our smart trucker that allows consumers to control their phone from the cuff of their jacket. In 2019, these collaborations delivered over 12 billion impressions globally, equating to roughly $100 million in media value. Collaborations continue to generate brand heat as well as drive traffic and sales.

Looking forward to 2020, you can expect to see the Levi's brand come to life with many more exciting, unexpected, and innovative collaborations in the pipeline. We continue to evolve the Levi's consumer experience to create deeper connections with our fans. We opened six next-gen stores globally across Europe and Asia in 2019. These stores amplify the Levi's brand and feature a redesigned storefront, tailor shops, updated fitting rooms, and more. As we exited the year, we launched our largest-ever pop-up in Miami, 45,000 square feet, which opened in conjunction with the launch of Art Basel and has been a hotspot this week in the run-up to the Super Bowl.

The pop-up showcases the best of our brand and the future of retail, housing Levi's premium products, our largest and most innovative tailor shop, interactive one-of-a-kind experiences, technical innovations, and collaborations with well-known artists such as Shepard Fairey and Cey Adams. Just last night in Miami, we launched our global product campaign for the Levi's XX Chino, our new extra comfort, extra soft chino for men, with Grammy-nominated artist Khalid as the global face of the campaign. Speaking of Super Bowl, how about them Niners? Our ROI from Levi's Stadium investment has been tremendously amplified behind the run this powerhouse team has been on. With more than a decade to go, our stadium deal has been one of the best returning advertising investments we make in the U.S., and continues to be one of many vehicles that enable us to stay squarely at the center of culture.

I'll now walk you through our full year constant currency results in the context of our three where-to-play strategic choices, which are drive the profitable core, expand for more, and become a leading world-class omni-channel retailer. First on our profitable core business, which comprises men's bottoms, our top 10 wholesale customers, and our top five mature markets. We protected and grew our share of leadership in men's bottoms. Levi's men's bottoms grew low single digits, while Dockers men's bottoms declined as we anniversaried the line reset in 2018. Our top 10 global wholesale customers collectively grew 2%, despite a disruptive U.S. channel, and our top five mature markets grew 2%, within which the international markets were collectively up 10%, and the U.S. was down 1% for the year. We have several initiatives in place to strengthen performance in the U.S. market.

We have the opportunity to expand distribution in wholesale and in direct-to-consumer, and to premiumize the marketplace on the back of the strength of our brand by offering a broader assortment of our better and best products across both men's and women's in order to offset some of the macro trends we are seeing at wholesale. Initiatives in the U.S. wholesale channel include gaining share within the largest department store retailers through elevated product presentations and broadening our portfolio, incremental penetration in premium retailers, and selectively adding distribution and enlarging our footprint in existing specialty and regional retailers. We are collaboratively managing our expanding digital business across pure play, wholesale.com, and our own e-commerce site, and we are growing a presence with our partners in the mass channel. We believe these initiatives will support our aspiration to manage the U.S. wholesale business to flourish over time.

In our U.S. direct-to-consumer channel, we will open more mainline doors, leveraging the successful model we've deployed internationally. Smaller footprint, more profitable, more capital efficient stores, and better locations. This will support our objective to increase distribution of our premium products in the U.S. marketplace. We're approaching expanding DTC brick and mortar distribution judiciously by testing a handful of stores in the U.S. this year. If the test has a high ROI, we'll expand that model. We're focused on optimizing execution of our strategies within the U.S. with an objective to grow the marketplace over time, despite fluctuations within U.S. wholesale on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Our second strategy is to diversify the business by expanding for more. This strategy continued to drive strong results. As I mentioned, our total women's business grew 14% in 2019, approaching $1.8 billion, and four years in a row of double-digit growth.

We continue to grow our market share in women's denim, including in the U.S., where we've overtaken the number two position. We're driving trends and leading the category in innovation, demonstrated by the rapid growth of our women's fashion fits, including high rise styles like the Ribcage and looser fitting bottoms like our new Balloon Jean, which are really resonating with the consumer. We also have recently expanded our accessories line and ventured into new categories in women's, including body wear. These are natural extensions of our brand and areas that offer us a long runway for growth in women's. Our total tops business growth of 14%, also its fourth year of double-digit growth, was driven by the success of a wide spectrum of tops, including tees, fleeces, outerwear, and trucker jackets. Each of our emerging markets of India, Russia, and Brazil posted strong double-digit growth.

Though modest at 2%, Mainland China is back to growth. Our plan is to accelerate growth in Mainland China in 2020, and December was a very strong month. The virus had a significant impact to our business in January. It is really unfortunate how the outbreak of the recent virus has been impacting people's lives, especially during the Chinese New Year. We're taking this seriously and responsibly, with our top priority being our people and our business partners. As a result, we temporarily closed roughly 50% of our fleet and have stopped all employee travel in and out of China. While this will put a damper on our growth in China in the near term, we are continuing to execute on our strategies there, and we will update you on the impact to our business when we provide our first quarter results.

As a reminder, Mainland China is still only 3% of our business. Our value brands, Signature and Denizen, grew mid-single digits in 2019 as we continue to offer great products at lower price points in the value market without cannibalizing the other parts of our business. Both brands improved gross margins and leveraged their cost bases, improving profitability. Signature and Denizen collectively represent about 7% of our total business. Our third way to play strategic choice is to become a leading world-class omni-channel retailer. Global DTC Plus includes the brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce sites that we operate. Direct-to-consumer growth of 10%, also its fourth year of double digits, reflected strength in each of our three regions. Revenue growth from our brick-and-mortar stores was up 8% globally. Performance of existing stores improved both internationally and in the United States.

We continue to build out our store network, which grew by a net of 81 stores in 2019. Global e-commerce was up 18% for the year, with strong growth in all three regions, largely driven by increased traffic. We continue to enhance our omni-channel capabilities. We've accelerated US rollout of ship from store due to strong performance, and we're leveraging RFID technology in more than 600 doors across 17 countries and growing, including all of our company-operated mainline doors in China, to provide inventory visibility and meet consumer demand in real time. Both of these initiatives are adding to consumer experience and positively impacting top and bottom line.

We've introduced the all-new Levi's App and loyalty program in the U.S., which allows consumers to access curated editorial and brand content, as well as purchase premium products available exclusively on the app, from limited edition collaborations to Levi's authorized vintage truckers. Looking forward, we plan to roll out the Levi's App and loyalty program beyond the U.S. Our strategies to diversify our global business are clearly working domestically and abroad. Our international business is approaching 60% of total revenues. Direct consumer is heading to 40%. Vintage is nearly a third of total revenues, tops is almost a fourth. In all of these areas, there remain a long runway for growth. Underlying our performance for the year, as it has always been during our long history, is profits through principles. In 2019, we reaffirmed our commitment to the Paris Agreement.

We pioneered a contextual approach to water use that prioritizes saving water in areas that need it most. We encouraged others in our industry to sign on to reducing their carbon emissions to meet science-based targets. Our employees and consumers have come to expect that we will do what's right, and we operate with the firm belief that sustainability and business performance go hand in hand. In today's environment, profits through principles is another thing keeping us at the center of culture. Overall, it's a really good fiscal 2019, and we look forward to advancing on our strategic initiatives as we continue to gain traction in building a global lifestyle brand. We are well positioned to drive strong growth in 2020 and beyond. Now over to Harmit to review the fourth quarter and year-end financials. Harmit?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Thank you, Chip. Welcome to everyone joining our call. We were pleased to have delivered fourth quarter performance ahead of our expectations across gross margin, adjusted EBIT, and adjusted diluted EPS, and met our revenue plan. We also performed better against fourth quarter expectations for U.S. wholesale. Absent certain factors, most notably that our fourth quarter did not include the benefit of 2019 Black Friday, along with the impact of our acquisition in South America, total net revenues continues to track with our long-term growth algorithm, and the underlying health of our business remains strong. I'll now walk you through our fourth quarter and full year results before turning to our outlook for 2020. My comments today will reference comparisons on a year-over-year basis in U.S. dollars unless I indicate otherwise.

We published the details of our reported and constant currency results in today's press release. I will not repeat all of those here. As Chip mentioned, our results were notably impacted by the lack of the benefit of the 2019 Black Friday week, which fell outside our fiscal year into quarter one 2020, which I will refer to as adjusted for Black Friday. As such, my comments today will focus on our organic business results adjusted for Black Friday. Fourth quarter net revenues of $1.6 billion grew 3% in constant currency when adjusted for Black Friday, the impact of our acquisition in South America, and the unrest in Hong Kong. Also note that we are lapping a strong fourth quarter 2018, which we grew 11% in constant currency.

The company's direct-to-consumer business grew 7% in constant currency when adjusted for Black Friday on expansion and improved performance of the retail network and e-commerce growth. Net revenues from the company's wholesale business declined 1% on both a reported and constant currency basis, reflecting the South American distributor acquisition as a decline in U.S. wholesale was offset by growth in Europe. Gross margin of 54.3% increased 110 basis points on a reported basis and increased 130 basis points excluding 20 basis points of unfavorable currency effects. On the back of a healthier inventory position and a stronger brand globally, about half the gross margin expansion reflected lower sales to the off-price channel. With the remainder primarily driven by the price increases we have taken, higher direct-to-consumer and international growth.

Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenue increased 50 basis points when adjusted for Black Friday, reflecting investments related to the continued expansion of our direct-to-consumer network, the implementation of our omni-channel initiative, and the beginning of our global multi-year ERP upgrade. Adjusted EBIT margin of 9.3%, expanded 50 basis points when adjusted for Black Friday, reflecting the higher gross margin. Adjusted diluted EPS for the fourth quarter of $0.26, declined $0.04 compared to prior year due to the increase in the company's share count resulting from an IPO, in combination with missing the benefit of Black Friday. Now I'll share more detail in the fourth quarter results of our three regions in constant currency, unless I state otherwise. Fourth quarter revenue in the Americas declined 2% when adjusted for Black Friday and for the impact of our acquisition of a distributor in South America.

Direct-to-consumer grew 2% when adjusted for Black Friday. U.S. wholesale declined 4%, a sequential improvement from the prior quarter, primarily reflecting reduced shipments to the off-price channel this year and lapping the final leg of last year's Dockers line reset. Adjusted for these, the U.S. wholesale decline was 1%. The disruption that many of our customers continue to experience in the channel was substantially offset by double-digit growth in premium and digital, and a few bright spots at department stores, particularly high single-digit growth in our women's business. Europe's revenue were up 11% when adjusted for Black Friday, with growth again broad-based across channels, product segments, and markets. This on the back of mid-teens growth in the prior year. Direct-to-consumer revenues were up 11%, adjusted for Black Friday, driven by strong traffic and wholesale revenues were up 11% on broad growth across our customer base.

The women's business continues to perform well, up 16% on the back of 19% growth last year. Levi's men's bottom grew 9%, fueled by innovative new fits that are resonating with consumers. Europe's profitability is really strong. On a full-year basis, it's up over 200 basis points, showing real leverage as we grow revenue. In Asia, net revenues grew 6% when adjusted for declines in Hong Kong, reflecting the unrest there and a seasonal shift in the timing of shipments in India. Revenue growth was broad-based across most of the region's markets, particularly in the direct-to-consumer channel. Specifically in China, revenue was flat for the quarter, as growth in our company-operated mainland and outlet stores was offset by a decline in the franchise and e-commerce channel. Switching gears to our full year results.

I'm pleased to point out that in our 1st year as a public company, we delivered at the high end of our constant currency long-term growth algorithm. Revenue grew 6%, Adjusted EBIT was up 8%, adjusted net income was up 14%, augmented by a dividend yield of nearly 2%. The lack of Black Friday sales benefit, combined with our acquisition in South America and the unrest in Hong Kong, hurt the year-over-year revenue growth comparison by about one percentage point. Fiscal 2019 revenues were driven by growth across all regions. Consistent with our strategy, direct-to-consumer drove the bulk of our growth, which grew 12% on a constant currency basis adjusted for Black Friday from both performance and expansion of the retail network, as well as e-commerce growth. Global wholesale grew 4% as strong international growth more than offset a 3% decline in U.S. wholesale.

Adjusted for the items we previously discussed, U.S. wholesale declined 1%. Full year gross margin of 53.8% was in line with prior year on a reported basis. Excluding all currency effects, gross margin expanded by 60 basis points above our long-term growth algorithm, driven primarily by direct-to-consumer and international growth, and the price increases we have taken. As a reminder, our gross margin was under 50% only five years ago. Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 43.2%, flat to prior year as we levered on base cost and invested the savings behind D2C growth. We added net 81 company-operated stores to our retail footprint in 2019. Adjusted EBIT margin was 10.6%, 40 basis points higher than the prior year on a constant currency basis when adjusted for Black Friday. Again, well above our long-term growth algorithm.

Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased $0.04 to $1.12 on a reported basis and increased $0.09 on a constant currency basis. Turning to balance sheet and cash flows. In dollar terms, inventory at the end of the fourth quarter was flat compared to a year prior, and the composition of inventory was heavy heading into fiscal 2020. We delivered strong adjusted free cash flow for the year of $116 million, $21 million higher than the prior year, even after higher capital investment and a 27% increase in the dividend paid in 2019. As we turn the page to fiscal 2020, we have hit the ground running and wanted to provide some color on holiday results, which for us is the combination of November and December. In our recent holiday period, year-over-year revenue grew mid-single digits on top of low double-digit growth last year.

Global direct to consumer and global wholesale both grew, and women's was up double digits. We are particularly pleased with global holiday performance, given U.S. wholesale was down high single digits as it lapped high single digit growth the prior holiday, in part due to the lower sales to off-price, but importantly, on a two-year stacked basis, U.S. wholesale is roughly flat. Holiday also yielded strong year-over-year gross margin expansion above our long-term growth algorithm, reflecting the continued year-over-year reduction in sales to the off-price channel in the U.S. Given the strength of our brand, we were intentionally less promotional during holiday, both vis-a-vis the marketplace and as compared to our own promotional debt in 2018. Let's turn to guidance.

As a reminder, we provide annual guidance, and we update our annual guidance each quarter as necessary as we move through the year, and we provide color on material items expected in the upcoming quarter. Our full year 2020 guidance reflects a strong base business in line with the long-term growth algorithm, the timing of our fiscal calendar, the impact of our acquisition and another business model change, and recently approved board decisions to increase the return of capital to all our shareholders. We expect net revenues to grow 7% in constant currency and around 6% in reported dollars.

This estimate includes underlying base business growth of around 5% in constant currency and approximately two points of growth from the benefit of having a Black Friday week in the first quarter, as well as the benefit of a 53rd week, which will include a second Black Friday in the fourth quarter. Note that the net revenue benefit from the 2019 South American distributor acquisition we have previously discussed will be substantially offset by a change in ownership of our U.S. footwear distributor, who has recently been purchased by a licensee partner. This will result in a licensed revenue stream, replacing what formerly was direct sales to the footwear distributor. It is also important to note that there is no adverse impact to our fiscal 2020 EBIT estimates as a result of the changes in these business models.

Specifically with respect to U.S. wholesale, based on what we know today, we anticipate that on a full year basis, U.S. wholesale will be roughly flattish to 2019, broadly in line with the long-term growth algorithm when adjusted for planned lower sales to the off-price channel during the first half of 2020. Keep in mind that even with the full year flattish, we expect individual quarters to be quite choppy given the year we are lapping. The U.S. wholesale in quarter one 2019 was up 8% and Q3 was down 10%. Turning now to EBIT. In 2020, we expect full year Adjusted EBIT margin expansion in the range of 30-40 basis points on both the constant currency and a reported basis.

We anticipate gross margin expansion well above our long-term growth algorithm, largely due to the outsize favorable mix shift to direct-to-consumer related to the two Black Fridays, as well as continued favorability from our geographic mix and price increases. We also expect lower sales to the off-price channel to help gross margins. However, we also expect Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenues due to a number of factors, including continued strategic investments in direct-to-consumer and higher advertising to support our growth objectives, particularly in China, as well as the impact of new lease accounting standards and the tax treatment for new equity- settled awards. Based on our net revenues and Adjusted EBIT guidance, we expect Adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $1.18-$1.22, which incorporates a tax rate in the range of 20%-21%.

Our expectation that currency translation will unfavorably impact the comparison to 2019 by about $0.01. We have a strong balance sheet, access to $1.8 billion in liquidity and are generating returns on capital in the mid-teens. Given the confidence in our long-term growth algorithm and access to substantial liquidity, we're announcing the following capital deployment plan, which will fuel long-term growth and return capital to shareholders. We're planning capital expenditures of approximately $200 million-$210 million, inclusive of nearly 100 new company operated store openings on a gross basis in 2020. This is in addition to the 80 stores that we've recently taken over in South America. We're moving to quarterly dividend payments and have announced our first quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share. At this rate, full-year dividends will fall in the range of $130 million, an increase of approximately 14% as compared to 2019.

Additionally, our board has approved a share buyback program that we will use to offset dilution that will otherwise be introduced from our employee stock grant. Based on today's stock price and the vesting schedules of the awards, we anticipate using cash in the range of $80 million-$100 million in 2020 for this purpose. Before we move to Q&A, please note the following color with respect to the first quarter of 2020. While we do expect a strong quarter for total company revenues, we are anticipating revenue growth will come in a bit below our full-year revenue guidance, reflecting an expected decline in U.S. wholesale as well as the risk from the coronavirus, the impact of which we will quantify as the situation develops. We anticipate that the U.S. wholesale will be down significantly in Q1, driven by two factors.

First, as we lap 8% growth last year, and second, given the improved health of our inventory, we expect lower sales to the off-price channel. Despite anticipated strong gross margin expansion in the first quarter of 2020, we expect Adjusted EBIT margin in the first quarter to be adversely impacted by two factors as compared to prior year. First, we expect about 100 basis points of Adjusted EBIT margin decline from higher advertising as we plan to smooth out advertising by bringing more of our spend into the first half of the year. Second, the timing of the employer tax expense for new equity- settle awards will hit us when they vest in Q1, this will pressure Adjusted EBIT margin by approximately 50 basis points. Note that we expect Adjusted EBIT margin to build back towards our annual guidance as the year progresses.

With that, we'll now open it up and take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound sign. Your first question comes from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim.

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim

Good afternoon, guys. Good quarter.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Hey, Bob.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

[Thanks Bob] .

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim

T he first question is probably towards Harmit. You guys mentioned the annual algorithm in the prepared remarks. I was just wondering if you could just sort of remind us or refresh exactly what you guys consider the algorithm to be.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Sure. Thanks, Bob. Good question. Our annual algorithm basically talks about growing revenue in the mid-single-digit range. Think about 4%-6% in constant currency. That's basically comprised of the Americas growing 2%-4%, Europe and Asia in the high-single-digits. If you consider channels, wholesale is growing globally in the low-single-digits and direct to consumer growing in the high-single-digits. On a product basis, the men's bottom business growing low-single-digits and the tops and women's business growing high-single-digits. That's on the growth side. On the Adjusted EBIT side, we expect to grow a little faster. We expect to grow our EBIT in the mid-to-high-single-digits, especially as Adjusted EBIT expands 20-30 basis points annually.

There's leverage on fixed costs of interest, because we expect the debt levels to be largely there. This is going to be augmented by our increase in dividends which we've just talked about, driving a total shareholder return of close to 10%. On top of this, while we've announced plans to buy back the shares just to offset dilution, longer term, we can increase our share repurchase as well as M&A. All that is on top of the TSR growth of 10% that we look at growing annually on a constant currency basis. Does that help?

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim

Yeah, that's great. I just have, I think, a question for Chip. I think you talked about the Balloon Jean. Just sort of two product questions for you. Are skinny jeans fading in favor of pleated jeans? That's my first question. Then the second one is, are shaping jeans becoming a trend? I saw recently that the Totally Shaping pull-on skinny jean from Signature by Levi Strauss & Co. was the number one best-seller on Amazon. I just wondered if you might be able to comment on those two. Thanks.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Which is true. Thanks for pointing that out, Bob. On the trends, I'd say that the overall trends driving the category holistically are kind of a continuation of the same theme we've been seeing for the last year or so, which is a macro trend of casualization, the evolving impact of streetwear and streetwear influence, and clearly an '80s and '90s mood going on. On women's, everybody's been talking about the death of the skinny jean for years. I will say that the skinny is still more than 50% of our total women's bottoms revenue. Women want a wide range. I think part of our success over the last couple of years in women's has been meeting her need for fit and fabric in particular, and finish as well. I call it the three Fs.

We've been leading in some of the more fashion-forward fits like loose, which is the Balloon Jean that we mentioned in the prepared remarks, to the wide leg and high rise and straight. We've read the trends as the rises have been going up. One of our fastest and hottest items in our line is the Ribcage skinny, which is our highest rise women's jean ever with a 13.5-inch rise. The fashion fits are clearly driving a lot of the growth. In fact, our fashion fits on women's were up about 87% over the prior year. The core skinny business is still a huge part of the business, and it's still an important part. On the shaping jeans, we've been selling shaping jeans for over a decade.

There are some women where that's really an important consideration for them. They want a jean that flatters them and celebrates their curves. We offer it across many parts of our line. The Signature jean that you referenced is the number one selling jean on Amazon. We've got more coming in this space in 2020 as we look ahead and more on that later in the fiscal year. It is certainly an important part of our women's business. Hope that got it.

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim

Yes, perfect. Thank you very much.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Thanks, Bob.

Operator

Your next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Good afternoon, folks, and congrats on a nice quarter.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Thanks, Matt.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Maybe to break down the U.S. plans, Chip, can you elaborate on growth opportunities within U.S. wholesale that you're excited about and just your confidence in managing this part of the business flattish? Then just maybe touch on some of the drivers of the continued direct-to-consumer runway that you see remaining also in the U.S.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Yeah. Back to the growth algorithm, just to get everybody grounded. We say Americas will grow 2%-4%, and within that, we're saying we will deliver a wholesale business roughly flattish year-on-year. That's what we've been able to do over the last three years on a favor basis. In today's environment, there are winners and losers. First and foremost, we are focusing on winning with the winners. Within every single customer, we have opportunities, and we're focused on the largest stores and showing up great in the largest stores of all of our big retailers. We have portfolio opportunities as well when you look at segmentation of the wholesale base. As you know, we've been really focused on premiumizing our offering here in the U.S. based on the strength of the brand.

That has led to incremental distribution in some of the more premium wholesale customers, and we still have opportunities there. We've been upgrading our in-store fixtures in one of these premium wholesale customers over the last year or so. Then we've also been expanding in the mass channel, as you know. Today, what we've done in Target, we're now in 50 stores heading to 70, and I think we'll go a little bit faster than that over the course of the next year. That's been very positive for us. We have a lot of data that shows that it is largely incremental. In fact, we've run some consumer research where Target consumers have said it's the first time they've bought Levi's jeans in a long time. We have a number of levers to push and pull, and that's part of what gives us confidence.

There's still some white space opportunities that we're chasing down. The strength of the brand, though, grounds us in everything, and that gives us conviction that we can continue to maintain a roughly flattish wholesale business. We'll be choppy, just to reinforce that point one more time. Quarter to quarter, we're going to have our ups and downs as we go through the year, just as we did last year. We're confident we've challenged ourselves that we're going to maintain this business at roughly flattish as we go forward.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Just for clarity, Matt, the 2%-4% was America's growth. U.S. was 2% of the marketplace.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Maybe Harmit, just to follow up. On gross margin, how best to think about the drivers and level of gross margin expansion that you've embedded in your 2020 outlook? Just for Chip, what inning would you say that the brand's pricing power is today globally?

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

I can answer that one first. That's really easy. We're still in the very early innings. Bottom of the first, top of the second, maybe. We've taken some pricing action in Europe in the second half of the year. We'll see some pricing action go into effect in the U.S. here early this fiscal year.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Yeah. Depending on that, Matt, I would say the tailwinds or the factors that contribute to gross margin expansion: price increases Chip talked about. Sourcing savings continue to drive our leverage on volumes. The reduction of off-price, which we're continuing that through quarter two of this year, the benefit of growing our direct-to-consumer channel, as well as international. In 2020, because we have two Black Fridays and it's driving our direct-to-consumer business, that helps. With acquisitions, we probably have a marginal impact. The headwind, maybe slight headwind on currency, not a lot, but slight in 2020. I think that's why we feel good about a higher gross margin in 2020 relative to our algorithm, which was 40-50 basis points.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

One other thing I would add, Matt, and we mentioned it in the script is, it does get back to brand strength on the Levi's brand. Through the holidays, we were intentional to not chase the competitive marketplace. As a result, our promotion levels, the depth of our promotions was less than it was the prior year and less in general than what the marketplace was, and we still had a decent holiday. I think, again, it just underscores the strength of the brand.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Thanks, Matt.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Good luck to the Niners on Sunday.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Go, Niners. Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Your next question comes from Omar Saad with Evercore.

Omar Saad
Analyst, Evercore

Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to ask about the revenue guidance. It's a little bit ahead of the long-term algorithm that you were discussing, Harmit, the +7% . It's a good number. You guys could break down some of the key chunks that gets us there. I know there's some non-comparable components around the Black Friday. How big of a piece is that? Should we think about pricing? What's the underlying U.S. wholesale and broader Americas assumptions? Some of the key pieces there. I also wanted to ask if you could dive in on Europe a little bit. I think it slowed a little bit more on a constant currency basis than we thought. If there's any kind of color to add around that market. Thanks, guys.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Sure, Omar. Our guidance as we begin the year is 7% on constant currency, six on reported. That's revenue growth year-over-year. We are saying our base business or our algorithm, where I talked about four to six, middle of that, about 5%. I talked about the different components. To your question about U.S. wholesale, we're saying flattish by the end of the year, adjusted for the off-price reduction that we're doing. In terms of what makes up the 7%, we're saying two percentage points, largely driven by our fiscal calendar. Each Black Friday will help by about 50 basis points, that's about 100 basis points improvement, and the 53rd week is about 100 basis points.

It's probably a little lower than what you guys have in your model, largely because it's not as simple as taking one week from the year and extrapolating it, for a couple of reasons. Let me explain that. One, not every part of our global business has a 53rd week. Largely Asia runs on a monthly calendar, and there's some markets in Europe with a very similar monthly calendar. They're not going to have the benefit of the 53rd week. The second is if you take the remaining business, our direct-to-consumer business is straight extrapolation. If you take one week, and that's the impact on the 53rd week. Our wholesale business, what we are assuming is about 50 basis points, largely because it's the replenishment sales that we're incorporating. Largely, people, and the open book buys are done on a monthly cadence.

That's how we're thinking about it, and that's why it's 100 basis points for Black Friday, 100 basis points for the 53rd week. That's making it up. Now, we've done an acquisition in South America that was supposed to help. It was supposed to be a headwind this year. Late last year, or early this year, one of our licensed partners bought a distributor. It's a licensed partner who used to handle our footwear business in the U.S. for Dockers has now bought our footwear distributor for Levi's. We definitely see synergies and benefits longer term with this combination. There's a business model change that offsets the acquisition that we talked earlier. Does that help you out, Omar?

Omar Saad
Analyst, Evercore

Absolutely. Could you maybe give us some color on Europe as well?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Yeah, sure.

Omar Saad
Analyst, Evercore

What's the underlying assumption on price, sorry, for the fiscal year?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

The underlying assumption and price is what we factored into the revised gross margin. In our normal gross margin perspective, 40-50 basis points. We think 60-80 next year is probably more like it. That incorporates the price changes, which we think will stick broadly. Relative to your question on Europe grew 11% adjusted for Black Friday. It's a tad bit softer than the remarkable growth they had, and that's just the law of large numbers. Our belief is Europe longer term, we set that in our growth algorithm, is more high single digits, low double digits business.

We are leveraging beautifully on the profit base and the business is now close to $1.6 billion-$1.7 billion, and the operating margins are now close to 20%. They've got this business beautifully positioned for driving profit over the long term.

Omar Saad
Analyst, Evercore

Thanks for the color.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

Heather Balsky
Analyst, Bank of America

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I was hoping first you could talk about the U.S. store tests that you are running and, I guess how these stores compare to your existing fleet and what you're testing exactly. Then also how you think of the U.S. store opportunity long term if these tests work.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Okay. Heather, are you talking about our owned and operated stores? Is that what you're asking?

Heather Balsky
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Okay.

Heather Balsky
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

We talked about this, I think, on the last call. Basically, our big opportunity in the U.S. is mainline doors. Go back to part of our strategy for the U.S. The U.S. is unlike just about any other market globally. It is largely a Tier 3 market with prices on a pair of Levi's Red Tab at roughly $40. You go to Europe, you go to most of Asia, we're in the $90-$100 price point as our opening price point, and more mainline doors there. Here in the U.S., we have roughly 30 mainline doors, and that's it. They tend to be larger doors, often not in great locations. The model that we're now executing is smaller stores, call that in the range of 3,000-4,000 sq ft, with a tighter assortment in better locations. It's more capital efficient.

These stores tend to be more profitable, and they're in better locations as well, and a great presentation of the brand. It's basically what we're executing in most of the rest of the world, but we've never executed it here in the U.S. We have a couple of these stores already right across the bay from us here in San Francisco in Emeryville. It's a good example. We're going to open, in the plan, we've got a couple of doors like this that we're going to open in 2020 that are in the range of 2,500-4,000 sq ft in great locations. We've talked before. One example is we will open a store this spring in the Stanford Mall. We have no stores down in Palo Alto or around Stanford. The Stanford Mall is an A mall, and we don't have a store there.

We're in a great location with a relatively small footprint and on paper, that store pencils out to be very, very profitable. If we can prove this model out, then we will expand the model over time, and we'll do it judiciously. We're pretty diligent and deliberate about capital deployment. That's basically what we're all about. We'll have more as we go through the year on how those stores are performing.

Heather Balsky
Analyst, Bank of America

Great. Thank you. Harmit, just a question on SG&A for 2020. Can you help just break down the drivers a little bit more? Can you quantify the impact from the accounting changes, the calendar shifts, an extra week, and also the ramp in marketing relative to 2019? Thanks.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Yeah. If gross margin is 60 to 80 basis points, I'd say SG&A is probably 30 to 40. That's what gets you to a 30, 40 Adjusted EBIT. Basically, what is that made of? I'd say higher advertising, probably 10 basis points, something in that range. The payroll tax is just the gift of being a public company. We have to pay taxes when the awards vest, and that happens in Q1. That's about 10 basis points. And 10 basis point reclass between interest and SG&A as we implement the lease standard. The rest is largely a direct to consumer expansion. Those are the factors that drive an SG&A increase year-over-year.

Heather Balsky
Analyst, Bank of America

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Your next question comes from Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.

Kimberly Greenberger
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thank you so much. I wanted to just ask, as I'm adjusting my 2020 numbers here for the guidance given today, we want to make sure to keep in mind our 2021 forecast so we don't get out of whack. Understanding that you're not giving 2021 guidance today, I'm just wondering if I should infer by the fact that you're looking for 7% growth this year with a base business at 5%, and the 53rd week will not repeat in 2021, nor will you have two Black Fridays. Should I think about more of a 3% growth rate in 2021 as we normalize for the outsized performance here in 2020?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

I mean, I haven't done the math, Kimberly, but I'd use the growth algorithm I talked about, which is the mid-single digit growth. Yes, you are lapping a stronger year, so whatever number you get on that basis will be the basis. You'll adjust for the Black Friday. I think I'd use that. If, depending on some of the pieces of our business accelerate through the second half of the year, which is largely Asia and China, we'll update you folks as the quarters track along.

Kimberly Greenberger
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. I just wanted to ask about the expanded distribution here in the U.S. with Target. I wanted to understand a little bit about what you're monitoring in order to make sure that business is incremental rather than cannibalizing other U.S. wholesale business. What are the checkpoints you're looking for?

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Sure. We are monitoring this very closely. As you can imagine, it could be seen as being disruptive in the marketplace. I don't know if you've been into a Target or if you've seen it, but my starting point is on both the men's pad and the women's pad, and I was in my Target that has this literally three days before Christmas, and the merchandise price point on the pad on both the women's and men's pad was $49.99. We are selling at a premium to the market. The average marketplace price for a pair of Levi's today is about $40. The first check for cannibalization is Target is actually selling and attracting new consumers at a higher price point, consistent with our whole strategy of trying to premiumize the brand.

We've run consumer research inside of Target to see whether these consumers have bought Levi's in other locations, including our own doors. The vast majority of those, Target would call them those guests, have indicated that this is the first time they've bought Levi's in a long time. The other thing we're doing in all the test stores, we've drawn a five-mile radius around each test store, and we've looked at our pre and post business results in other customers and see very little cannibalization. Net, we're pretty confident that this is incremental for our business. It's clearly incremental to Target, but it's also incremental for us and having very little cannibalizing effect on our other customers. We've got a high degree of confidence in that, which is part of the reason we're willing to continue to move forward.

Target's done a great job executing as well. You go to the pad, the brand looks great. I think the way we're looking there over some other places right now. It's really been good for the brand.

Kimberly Greenberger
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great color. Thank you, Chip.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Thank you, Kimberly. I think we have time for one question, and then the others we will respond. You know who's on the queue. We'll respond as a part of our sell side calls that we have set up. Maybe one question.

Operator

Your last question comes from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for getting in under the wire. Given, Harmit, your commentary on the first quarter, can you unpack how we should expect the cadence of the year to play out and how you're thinking about it, especially given the two Black Fridays this year?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Yeah.

Dana Telsey
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group

G o on. Sorry.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

No, why don't you finish?

Dana Telsey
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group

Then Chip, as you think about the wholesale business, the differences between the U.S. versus Europe, what do you see as the biggest differences? Whether it's Asia, whether it's Europe, and what the learnings could be from one to the other, if you were to drive growth globally in terms of wholesale to the levels you'd like. Thank you.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss

Okay, Dana. I'm going to principally stay away from guiding the quarters, but I'll give you some color. I would say that as we've said, the first quarter slightly below our full year number driven by the factors I talked about. We haven't quantified the impact of the unfortunate situation in China because that's evolving as we speak, and we will give you more details of that when we report first quarter results. I think quarter two is progressively better than quarter one, and quarter four is the strongest quarter because it's got the Black Friday and the 53rd week. That's how I would progress the quarterly flow of revenue. We'll give you the color on EBIT as the quarters progress.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Great. On the biggest difference between U.S. wholesale and Europe/the rest of the world wholesale, I would say there are two important dynamics. Number one, in the U.S., there is a very heavy off-price component. We've talked about strategically how we're trying to manage that. If you look at denim consumption in the U.S. over the last 12-18 months, a lot of the consumption has shifted off-price. T.J. Maxx, Ross. There's much less of that dynamic going on in wholesale than in Europe and Asia. The other big difference is really a difference in our business.

Here in the U.S., as I explained, the U.S. is largely a Tier 3 market, and our U.S. wholesale customers are selling Levi's out the door day in and day out in a price ranging from low $30 to mid $40 day in and day out, with an average around $40, which, by the way, is much better than eight years ago when I got here. In Europe and in Asia, we have primarily a Tier 2 and Tier 1 business. Better and best. In the U.S., it's a good quality market at good price points. In Europe and international, it's a better and best quality. Which is consistent with what we have in our mainline doors. The pricing and the product that we've got in wholesale in Europe is very similar to the pricing and product that we've got in our mainline doors in Europe.

We have much more of a premium representation of the brand. The brand pricing, on average, across most of Europe and most of Asia, is in the $80-$100 price point as opposed to $40 here in the U.S. Those are probably the two biggest differences. I guess the only other thing that I would say about Europe today versus the U.S., although we've made some good progress in the U.S., is Europe has been much more successful with the women's relaunch, which we did back in the middle of 2015 in wholesale. Our European wholesale business on both men's and women's tends to be much more of a lifestyle representation of the brand than what you see here in the U.S., where we're still largely being treated as a classification.

We're blue jean bottoms in a lot of customers' when we still walk in. Whereas in Europe, the Levi's brand is much more a head-to-toe, much more of a lifestyle representation of the brand. Not surprisingly, our women's business is better developed and our tops business is better developed in Europe than it is in the U.S. That could be a little bit of an insight on why we're trying to do some of the things that we're trying to do in U.S. wholesale to begin making U.S. wholesale look more like Europe and Asia from a wholesale dynamic. I hope that helps.

Dana Telsey
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group

It does. Thank you. A lot of opportunity.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss

Absolutely. That's how we look at it. All right. Well, I think we'll close it there. I want to thank everyone for dialing in and for participating. Sorry, we went over by a little bit. Chris, Aida, and Harmit will be on the phone with most of you over the next day or two, and you'll have plenty of opportunity to go a little bit deeper with them on those follow-up calls. Thank you all for joining in, and we look forward to talking with you again at the end of the first quarter. Have a good day.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time.