Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2019

Oct 8, 2019

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Levi Strauss & Co.'s third quarter earnings conference call for the period ending August 25th, 2019. All parties will be in a listen-only mode until the question and answer session, at which time instructions will follow. This conference is being recorded. May not be reproduced in whole or in part without written permission from the company. A telephone replay will be available two hours after the completion of this call through October 14th, 2019. Please use conference ID 6988596. This conference call also being broadcast over the internet. A replay of the webcast will be accessible for one quarter on the company's website, levistrauss.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Aida Orphan, Senior Director, Investor Relations and Risk Management at Levi Strauss & Co.

Aida Orphan
Senior Director of Investor Relations and Risk Management, Levi Strauss & Co.

Good afternoon, and welcome to our quarterly conference call. I'm pleased to introduce members of the Levi Strauss & Co. management team, Chip Bergh, President and CEO, and Harmit Singh, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we begin, let me briefly remind you of a few items. Our discussion today may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding our strategies and expected financial and operating performance. Although these statements reflect the best judgments of our senior management, they involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the statements, as more fully described in our annual report on Form 10-K, our registration statements, today's earnings press release, and our other filings with the SEC, all of which are available on our website at levistrauss.com. We disclaim any responsibility to update our forward-looking statements.

Other unknown or unpredictable factors also could have material adverse effects on our future results, performance, or achievements. We provide information on our website about how we compile various measures used to describe our business performance. Participants on today's call may discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations and descriptions of our non-GAAP financial measures are available in the investor section of our website, as well as in today's earnings press release. Finally, today we filed our quarterly financial report on Form 10-Q with the SEC, which is now available on our website. Now I'll turn over the call to Chip Bergh.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Thank you, Aida. Good afternoon, and thanks to everyone for joining us here today. We delivered strong third quarter results and remain on track to achieve our full-year expectations. Revenues of $1.45 billion in the third quarter were up 4% on a reported basis and 5% on a constant currency basis. This brings year-to-date revenue growth to 8% in constant currency. Our strategies to strengthen the Levi's brand and diversify the business beyond U.S. wholesale and men's bottoms to faster-growing markets and categories have helped us deliver these results and offset the challenging U.S. wholesale dynamic. Our strategies are working, and we are confident in the future. I'll briefly touch on some key highlights from our third quarter, all in constant currency and versus prior year. Our international results were again very strong.

Europe grew 18% on top of 17% a year ago, and Asia grew 12% on top of 10% a year ago. Our global direct-to-consumer business was up 12% and has now grown double digits for 15 consecutive quarters. Within that, our e-commerce business grew 21%, with increased e-commerce traffic in all three regions. Our total women's business grew 12%, which was the 17th consecutive quarter of growth in women's, with each of the last 11 quarters being double-digit growth. Our total tops business was up 17%, the 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in tops. The Levi's brand continued its momentum, delivering 8% revenue growth in the quarter, on top of 12% growth a year ago. Levi's brand strength is driven by our ability to bring the brand to life for our fans through leading product and marketing.

With a history of nearly 150 years, the Levi's brand is both iconic and relevant as we continuously reinvent the brand and lead the industry through new fits, innovations, and bold marketing. We launched a number of exciting collaborations with iconic partners in the quarter, including Hello Kitty and Stranger Things, which generated billions of impressions for the brand and gave consumers a reason to make repeat visits to our store. We continued our investment in digital innovation by launching Future Finish, an online customization experience on levi.com that leverages our FLX technology, which makes it easy to create a custom pair of Levi's and puts the power of personalization directly into the consumer's hands. We're premium pricing it. At the end of the quarter, we again collaborated with Nike, showcasing the power of these two celebrated brands, this time with a focus on customization.

We worked with the Nike By You program to allow consumers to create their own custom Nikes with Levi's fabrics and trims using our FLX technology. We also partnered with them to design exclusive co-branded sneakers available in select Levi's stores, which sold out in three days. We have a number of other prominent collaborations in the pipeline for Q4. We just introduced the next iteration of our trucker jacket with Jacquard by Google, which uses advanced technology and patented conductive fibers woven into the fabric of the jacket to seamlessly and wirelessly connect your trucker to your smartphone. This latest version features an ever-expanding range of digital technology. We recently announced a much-anticipated collaboration with Disney's Star Wars, which will be available in our stores and online on November first.

These strategic collaborations with other iconic brands underscore the strength and relevance of the Levi's brand with consumers of all ages and backgrounds. Levi's is the number one denim brand in the world by a mile, and we are maintaining our share leadership position by putting the consumer and our values at the center of everything we do. Before I review our strategies, let's talk a moment about the U.S., which I know is on everyone's mind. As a reminder, we manage the U.S. as a marketplace using both channels, direct-to-consumer and wholesale, to drive our brands. Our success in direct-to-consumer continues to be the best indicator of the Levi's brand strength in the market. In the U.S., our DTC performance remained very strong, up 7%, with e-commerce, outlets, and full price stores all growing.

Our DTC strategy in the U.S. will include testing some smaller footprint stores in great locations around the country in the coming quarters. Growing our U.S. direct-to-consumer business allows us to move towards premiumizing the marketplace and remains one of our important strategies to offset headwinds in U.S. wholesale by continuing to reduce our concentration in that channel. When I joined the company eight years ago, U.S. wholesale was almost half of the company's entire global business. Today, it's around 30% of the company's business, and this will continue to trend down as other parts of the business grow at a faster pace. As anticipated, U.S. wholesale in the third quarter faced a tough comparison to prior year for the reasons we've shared previously.

Anniversarying selling associated with the relaunch of one of Dockers key product lines in 2018, reducing sales to the off-price channel in 2019 due to our healthier inventory, and locking stronger sales in 2018 to a large financially distressed retailer, and the overall softness in U.S. department stores and chains, primarily due to the well-publicized traffic trends there. The first three factors, which collectively adversely impacted third quarter U.S. wholesale comparisons by about 6 points, are not indicative of our underlying performance of the channel. Adjusting for these, U.S. wholesale declined 4%. We continue to work with our customers, leveraging the brand strength and diversifying categories on the pad to show up much more as a lifestyle brand, including more womens and more tops.

We're bringing some of what's working in our DTC business to U.S. wholesale, including better merchandising, brand environment, and service. We're investing in our on-floor presentation at some of the top doors of key accounts to achieve this. By doing so, we're winning in a tough marketplace with sell-out trends better than each of the bears themselves. We're also taking a segmented approach to U.S. wholesale overall to drive the business within the broader channel, deploying various strategies to capture growth. These strategies are working. Examples include securing incremental distribution, including with premium customers, which is helping to premiumize the marketplace and expand access to our better and best products to U.S. consumers. Expanding our pure-play digital and wholesale.com business while maintaining brand integrity and healthy margins. Growing with our partners in the mass channel, bringing quality products to consumers at great price points.

Even with these strategies, comparison to prior year are going to be lumpy on a quarter-by-quarter basis due to the timing of shipments, door closures, product launches, et cetera, so it's important to evaluate U.S. wholesale performance over a longer time horizon. For now, we see the third quarter as the toughest comp for the full year, and while we'll have the tail of the Dockers impact and lower off-price sales again in Q4, we expect that U.S. wholesale comparisons to prior year will improve in the fourth quarter. We expect that U.S. wholesale will remain challenging, but we are strategically evolving our approach to the channel and will exit the year with a structurally stronger wholesale footprint than we entered it. Now turning to our where-to-play strategic choices, which is a reminder are drive the profitable core, expand for more, and become a leading world-class omni-channel retailer.

First, on the profitable core business, which comprises men's bottoms, our top 10 wholesale customers, and our top 5 mature markets. Revenues in each of these three components of the profitable core grew in the third quarter when adjusted for the Dockers and off-price impacts to U.S. wholesale that I just discussed. Most importantly, we've grown revenues in each of the three components of the profitable core, low single digits on a year-to-date basis without any adjustments. Turning to our second strategy, which is to diversify the business by expanding for more into women's, under-penetrated markets, and with our value brands. 12% growth in our women's business was fueled by the success of our high-rise skinny fits and ongoing growth in women's tops. Total tops growth of 17% was balanced across men's and women's, driven by truckers, sweatshirts, and tees, as we continue to diversify within the category.

Graphic tees remain a hot item, up 6% in the quarter after being up more than 40% in the third quarter last year. Each of our emerging markets of India, Russia, and Brazil posted another quarter of double-digit growth. In China, net revenues grew 2%. Our company-operated stores in China grew mid-single digits from positive comp performance and a shift towards more full-price stores, and this was on top of double-digit growth last year. Franchise performance was mixed as we continue to work to turn around that part of the business. Last week, in collaboration with a franchise partner, we opened a new 7,000 sq ft store in Wuhan. This is now our largest store to date in China, allowing us to showcase a broader assortment, including super premium products, and early consumer response has been very strong.

On the heels of our recent rollout of Levi's customization services on WeChat, we've joined forces with the hugely popular music and dance game, QQ Dance, to create a 3D-rendered wardrobe for its game characters, so consumers will be able to dress like their game avatars. Check it out on YouTube by searching for Levi's QQ Dance. Not only do partnerships such as these provide consumers with a fun, interactive shopping experience, allowing them to define and design their own cool, but they also support our endeavor to position the Levi's brand at the center of culture. China remains on track to post growth for the full year after being flat last year. We have the right people and strategies in place to accelerate China's growth in 2020. Our third win in place strategic choice is to become a leading world-class omni-channel retailer.

Direct-to-consumer growth of 12% reflected strength in each of our three regions. Global DTC for us includes the brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce sites that we operate. Revenue growth in our brick-and-mortar stores was up 10% globally. Performance of existing stores improved both internationally and in the United States, in our outlets and full-price stores. We continue to build out our store network, which has grown by 90 stores since last year. In the third quarter, we opened the largest Levi's flagship in Asia in Tokyo's Harajuku district, the center of Japanese youth culture and fashion. Global e-commerce growth was even stronger, up 21% for the quarter, with increased traffic and double-digit growth in all three regions. We continue to enhance our omni-channel capabilities. Our rollout of ship from store continues, and we are now also leveraging RFID technology in more than 500 stores across 17 countries and growing.

Both of these initiatives allow us to optimize inventory, augment sales, and improve store productivity. We're seeing an uplift in stores where we have rolled this out. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, in the U.S., we're launching new ways to connect loyal shoppers to the best of the Levi's brand with a new loyalty program and app, which will give consumers access to frictionless shopping, exclusive product, loyalty rewards, and style inspiration. These platforms allow us to get closer to the consumer, and we will be rolling them out globally over the next year. Our strategies to diversify our global business are clearly working, domestically and abroad. Our international business is approaching 60% of total revenues. Direct-to-consumer is heading to 40%. Women's is nearly a third of total revenues, and tops is almost a quarter. In all of these areas, there remains a long runway for growth.

We're achieving all of this while keeping our commitment to doing right by people and the planet. In August, we released a global strategy to reduce our water usage by half in water-stressed areas by 2025. We're also setting the standard for other apparel companies with our industry-leading targets to reduce carbon emissions. Our long history of incorporating sustainability in everything we do, not least of which is the supply chain disruption we're driving with Project F.L.X., continues to reduce our reliance on precious resources, driving innovation across our business and resonating with younger consumers whose passion for the planet has been particularly visible of late. Now over to Harmit to review our third quarter performance and update our full year outlook. Harmit?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Thank you, Chip, and welcome to everyone joining our call. My comments today will reference third quarter comparisons on a year-over-year basis in U.S. dollars, unless I indicate otherwise. Third quarter revenue of $1.45 billion grew 4% on a reported basis and 5% in constant currency. The contributions by region, channel, and category of the five points of constant currency growth were as follows. By region, five points of growth from Europe and two points from Asia were partially offset by lower sales in the Americas. By channel, three points came from our company-operated stores, one point from e-commerce, and one point from global wholesale. By category, six points of growth generated by a diversification into Levi's women and tops was partially offset by a decline in Dockers. Levi's men's bottoms were flat for the quarter.

Third quarter gross profit of $767 million represents an increase of $25 million, despite $11 million of unfavorable currency translation. Gross margin of 53% declined 20 basis points on a reported basis due to currency headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar. Excluding all currency effects, both translation and transaction, gross margin expanded by 40 basis points, driven by the margin benefits of our direct-to-consumer and international growth. We're also starting to see benefits of the price increases we have taken globally, which substantially mitigated the product investments we have made. Third quarter SG&A expense of $596 million was up 2% over prior year. SG&A as a percentage of revenues improved by 60 basis points.

High investments in direct-to-consumer expansion, technology, and distribution capacity were more than offset by higher incentive compensation expense last year, reflecting performance significantly ahead of internal expectations in 2018, and a lower impact from previously cash-settled stock-based compensation awards. Additionally, we drove leverage on base cost this quarter, reflecting our cost discipline. Third quarter operating income of $171 million was up 8% on a reported basis and up 9% on a constant currency basis. Operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 11.8% due to the lower incentive compensation expense. Adjusted EBIT, which excludes the impact from our previously cash-settled stock-based compensation awards, was $176 million in the third quarter, up 2% on a reported basis and up 4% on a constant currency basis.

Adjusted EBIT margin was strong at 12.2%, reflecting our cost discipline as the 20 basis points decline compared to the prior year was due to the currency headwind in gross margin. Adjusted net income of $128 million for the quarter was down $5 million, as the prior year benefited from $11 million in discrete tax benefits that did not repeat this year. Adjusted diluted EPS for the third quarter of 2019 was $0.31, a $0.03 decline as compared to $0.34 in the prior year. The prior year tax benefits I just mentioned, in combination with the increase in our share count this year, adversely impacted the year-over-year adjusted diluted EPS comparison by $0.05. I'll share more detail on the third quarter results of our three regions in constant currency, unless I state otherwise.

In the Americas, net revenues were down 3% after being up 9% last year. Direct-to-consumer in the region grew 9%, reflecting the strength of the Levi's brand and execution in our stores where performance was positive, including positive comps in U.S. outlets, and which was augmented by strong double-digit growth in e-commerce. We anticipate our recently announced acquisition of a South American distributor will give us the opportunity to accelerate growth in this important region where the Levi's brand really resonates with the consumer. In anticipation of the acquisition, we didn't ship additional product to the distributor in the third quarter, and that adversely impacted growth in the Americas by about a point in this quarter, which was about half a point to the total company. Beyond this impact, underlying performance in the Americas region, international markets remained strong.

Within the U.S., strong direct-to-consumer growth of 7% partially offset the U.S. wholesale decline. This year, we are comping the Dockers line reset and sales to a financially distressed retailer, and we are reducing sales to off-price, all of which we do not consider indicative of our underlying performance in the channel. Collectively, these adversely impacted U.S. wholesale comparisons by about six points in the quarter, and we expect these factors to be of similar dollar magnitude in the aggregate in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by lower off-price sales. Excluding these factors, U.S. wholesale declined 4% in the third quarter, reflecting the ongoing challenging environment in the channel. Importantly, given the diversification of the business over the last few years, this only equates to one point for the company overall, which we've been more than able to offset by areas of opportunity that are growing at a faster pace.

U.S. wholesale remains an important profitable channel. Keep in mind that our revenue algorithm does not assume growth in the U.S. wholesale. Our strategies are targeted towards managing it to flattish over time, and they're working. U.S. wholesale is about flat year to date on an adjusted basis, and we expect the full year to be similar. Even with the decline this quarter, the Americas as a region has grown 3% year to date, right in the middle of the range for this region in our growth algorithm. Third quarter operating income for the full Americas region declined 7%, more than the region's revenue as higher selling expenses offset a higher gross margin. Europe again posted outstanding growth, 14% on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency.

This despite a backdrop that remains challenging at retail amidst an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic climate. Revenue growth this quarter was again broad-based across the region, with double-digit growth in men's and women's, all product categories, and both channels, where wholesale and direct-to-consumer each matched the region's 18% growth rate. The brand continues to be hot in Europe, and the team continues to do an amazing job executing across all channels to support the brand's momentum. Europe's operating income grew 34% on a reported basis and 39% on a constant currency basis, reflecting the net revenue growth, a higher gross margin, and leverage on SG&A. Asia also posted a strong quarter, notwithstanding macro volatility from tariff talks and protests in Hong Kong. The region's net revenues grew 9% on a reported basis and 12% in constant currency. Traditional wholesale, franchise, and e-commerce each grew double-digits.

Most markets in the region grew. The strongest growth in Asia this quarter was in India, partially due to a seasonal change in shipments with the prior year. China grew modestly and remains a huge opportunity as it still represents only about 3% of total company revenues. Hong Kong was the notable exception in the region. The ongoing protests there impacted traffic and caused some of our stores to close temporarily, costing the region about a point of growth. Asia's operating income grew 18% on a reported basis and 25% on a constant currency basis, reflecting the net revenue growth and SG&A leverage. Turning to balance sheet and cash flows. In dollar terms, inventory at the end of the third quarter was nearly flat compared to a year prior, reflecting the deliberate measures we've taken in recent quarters to reduce and maintain the health of our inventory.

Adjusted free cash flow of $28 million for the first nine months of 2019 was $42 million higher compared to the first nine months of 2018, despite higher CapEx investments and paying a higher dividend in the first quarter this year. Speaking of dividends, you may have seen our press release a couple weeks ago announcing an increase to the dividend we've been planning to pay in the coming weeks. At $0.15 per share, we now estimate a total payment of approximately $59 million, a 7% increase as compared to the previously announced $55 million. Returning capital to shareholders is a key component of our total shareholder return. A higher dividend payment would bring fiscal 2019 dividends up to approximately $114 million, a 27% increase compared to 2018. With three quarters in the books, we are solidly on track to achieve our full-year guidance.

We expect full-year constant currency revenue growth in the range of 5.5%-6%. We are tightening our range now that we have only one quarter to go and incorporating the impact of the distributor acquisition we announced in August. As regards to currency, due to a stronger U.S. dollar, we expect currency translation will adversely impact the full-year reported revenue growth by about 275 basis points. Given year-to-date constant currency revenue growth is 8%, our constant currency guidance implies fourth quarter about flat to slightly down compared to the prior year. This reflects an adverse impact of about 500 basis points collectively from lack of a Black Friday, lower off-price sales, the distributor acquisition in South America, and the unrest in Hong Kong. None of these factors detract from the underlying strong health of the business. Turning to gross margin.

We affirm our full-year guidance and wanted to further clarify the currency impact embedded in our gross margin expectations. On a reported basis, we expect full-year gross margin roughly in line with prior year's 53.8%. Excluding all currency effects, both translation and transactional, we expect full-year gross margin expansion in the range of 40-60 basis points in line with our growth algorithm, reflecting our geographic and channel diversification strategy. With respect to Adjusted EBIT margin, on a reported basis, we expect full-year Adjusted EBIT margin roughly in line with prior year's 10.5%. Keep in mind that this year we won't have the 25 basis point benefit to full-year Adjusted EBIT margin that we normally get from Black Friday. Excluding the currency effects from translation, we expect Adjusted EBIT margin to expand approximately 10 basis points.

With respect to Adjusted EBIT dollar growth, we expect currency translation will adversely impact the full-year reported Adjusted EBIT growth rate by about 450 basis points. In view of our year-to-date tax rate, we now expect a full-year effective income tax rate in the range of 19%-20%. Our 2019 CapEx expectation remains in the range of $190 million-$200 million, and we continue to expect nearly 100 store opens on a gross basis this year. It is pertinent to note that our full-year constant currency revenue guidance, taking into consideration lack of Black Friday, the distributor acquisition, and our strategic decision to reduce sales to off-price in support of brand equity, represents an organic growth rate of over 7%, ahead of our growth algorithm, and this is on top of 14% last year. Before turning to Q&A, a reminder on tariffs.

While it remains difficult to predict what the future holds for tariff policy, we have proactively taken steps to insulate our business from the long-term negative impact of these kinds of measures. As such, we believe we are less exposed than others, and we estimate the impact of tariffs on imports to the U.S. from China will have a negligible financial impact to our business. With that, we'll take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please press star and the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Due to time constraints, the company requests that you ask only one question. If you have an additional question, please queue up again. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing the pound sign. Your first question comes from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan. Go ahead with your question.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Thanks for all the color, guys. Maybe, Chip, on U.S. wholesale revenues, as we think about the 4% adjusted underlying decline in the third quarter that you laid out, back some of those items, I guess, what's the magnitude of improvement that you're expecting as we think about the fourth quarter? Maybe how best to think about underlying U.S. wholesale run rate as we think about next year, and just larger picture as we parse through this. With the department store softness, does this impact your ability to drive mid-single-digit underlying revenues as we think about next year and beyond?

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

I'll answer your last question first and then come back and talk about U.S. wholesale specifically. In short, I think our growth algorithm remains completely intact. Our ability to grow LSA in the 2%-4% range remains unchanged. It's fundamentally driven by the underlying strength of the Levi's brand across the whole region, which is best evidenced by the strength of our DTC business. On wholesale, excluding those one-time dynamics that we talked about, which was worth 6 points, the balance of the underlying trend of a negative 4, as we said in the prepared remarks, we do expect that this is going to be the toughest comp for the quarter or for the year, toughest comp quarter for the full year.

I think it's fair to assume over the long haul that we are going to be able to manage our U.S. wholesale business to be about flattish. That's what we've been saying all along. We've really been focused on structurally evolving our U.S. wholesale business to be sounder than it was as we entered the year. Things like exiting as much as possible the off-price business, which comes at a really low gross margin and is not healthy for the brand. As we do that strengthens our business structurally. Things like testing the brand in Target, which still is continuing to do really, really well, at a very good price point, by the way.

I'm confident we're going to be able to maintain that business in the flattish in terms of total dollars, and as a percentage of our total business, it will continue to decline as we grow our faster-growing businesses at DTC and international.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Matt, as I mentioned, on an adjusted basis, if you take the three factors out, our U.S. wholesale business is flattish on a year-to-date basis, and we expect the same for the year. In terms of anniversarying, Dockers, we said, is going to be fairly minor in quarter four. We're resetting off-price. We expect to have reset off-price by Q1 of 2020. We are anniversarying most of these one-time factors over the next quarter or so.

Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. Just one follow-up. On the gross margin, maybe Harmit, could you just walk us through the drivers of gross margin expansion in the fourth quarter, just as we think multi-year, just maybe the puts and takes on the gross margin line? Thanks.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Sure. I think if you think of the quarter, our gross margin ex currency was up 40 basis points. I would say the expansion of direct-to-consumer and international helps gross margins 40 to 50 basis points. We have taken price increases globally in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, and those price increases are offsetting our product investments. There is just saving from sourcing and the like. That's really what's driving us in quarter four, because we're upping the top end of our gross margin range ex currency from 40 to 50 to 40 to 60. That's largely driven by the fact that we expect lower off-price sales in quarter four. As Chip mentioned, those sales come at much lower margins, so that really benefits us. Currency, I think, in quarter four would be much lower impact as you've seen in quarter three.

It's kind of progressively come down over the last couple of quarters. Does that help you, Matt? Okay, that is a yes. Next question.

Operator

Your next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

Paul Lejuez
Analyst, Citigroup

Hey, thanks, guys. Can you talk a little bit about the Europe business? I'm curious on the wholesale side, that revenue growth, how much of that is being driven by new doors, this quarter versus same-store sales? Same question for DTC, the % driven by new store openings versus comp growth in that region. I guess just one follow-up on the U.S. wholesale channel. Can you maybe break out for us how growth in the channel or contraction in the channel looks by department stores versus the mass channel versus specialty? Thank you.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Your first question was about Europe, right?

Paul Lejuez
Analyst, Citigroup

Yes, sir.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

If you think about our business in Europe, our business in Europe was up 14% on top of mid-teen growth last year. It was across all channels. Wholesale was up 18. I think direct to consumer was up 18. The channels really work together. It's fairly harmonious from that perspective. In terms of is it more doors or is it comp sales? I would say, our comp sales performance in Europe is probably the strongest around the world. We've had generally positive traffic in quarter 3 in Europe and in Asia. In the U.S., traffic undoubtedly was slightly down, but more than offset through better conversion and increased unit per transaction leading to positive comps. I think it's a combination of both new doors as well as comp sales.

The fun fact in Europe is between franchise and company doors, we're opening one new door a week on a gross basis.

Paul Lejuez
Analyst, Citigroup

Okay. Just same on the wholesale side, is it mostly new accounts or is it the same accounts, same chains that you're just selling more to?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

It's largely the same chains we're selling more to, but we're selling more of lifestyle, as our women's business and our girls business continues to grow. We build more of a lifestyle. We are selling more product and obviously taking more floor space given the strength of the brand.

Paul Lejuez
Analyst, Citigroup

Gotcha. Thank you for that.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

The question, Paul, just to answer your question on U.S. wholesale. Chip talked about incremental penetration in premium retailers. Our premium business in U.S. wholesale is up 8% for the quarter, 16% year-to-date. We're also growing our digital footprint in the U.S. and that's across pure players as well as wholesale.com and that business in quarter 3 was up 20%. Again, our strategies are to grow premium and to continue to grow digital, and that's offsetting some of the traffic declines in traditional department stores.

Paul Lejuez
Analyst, Citigroup

Gotcha. Thank you. Good luck, guys.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim Securities.

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Hi, good afternoon. Just a couple of questions from me. The first one is, can you just elaborate a little more on the Target test? I guess specifically, are you seeing any cannibalization with other retailers, or do you think it's purely additive with the Red Tab? I would also just be curious to know within Target, do you think that it's impacting the Denizen brand at all?

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Okay. Hi, Bob Drbul. The Target test, just to take everybody back, we started with the 20-door test early in the calendar year. They actually came to us. They had consumer research with their guests that indicated that the brand that they most wanted to buy in Target but couldn't buy was Levi's. The most searched item on target.com that people couldn't buy was Levi's. We started with a 20-door test just on men's, and in those 20 doors we pulled Denizen. Levi's was purely incremental, at really good price points. It was Levi's men's, it was bottoms, tops, and some trucker jackets. The bottoms, we included some of our latest, most contemporary fits like the 502, which was priced around $50. We quickly learned that the guests loved finding Levi's in their stores. We worked with Target to have great in-store presentation.

The merchandising is really well done. The test, in short, it worked. We looked very carefully at the impact of cannibalization, because if this was purely a left pocket, right pocket, we're just shifting Levi's from one customer to another and not gaining incremental share from this, we weren't interested in pursuing it. We drew a five-mile radius around every test store, and we looked at the incrementality of the test, and it was incremental. We have now since expanded to 50 doors.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

On men's, we have started a 20-door test on women's, which is also off to a very good start. You may recall last quarter I said at full potential, this is, we're really focused on the urban doors and the college town doors. One of the things we're learning is we're converting a younger Target consumer who isn't shopping at the malls, and they're discovering Levi's at their Target, and we're converting them on some of our premium wholesale product. It feels really, really good, and it does appear to be truly incremental. At full potential, this is probably somewhere in the range of a couple hundred doors, 200 doors or so. We're continuing to work it with the Target team, but feel really good about the progress that we've made.

This is part of, as I said in the prepared remarks, this is part of evolving the structural nature of our U.S. wholesale business, and this one seems to be a good one for us.

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Got it. Great. The second question is, on the marketing side, can you just talk about the plans for the fourth quarter and sort of how you're managing the marketing budget even as you look the next few quarters into the next year?

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Well, from a financial standpoint, what we guided is that we expect advertising to be about flattish for the full year, around 7% of revenues, and that implies that it's a little bit heavier in the fourth quarter, which is normal given the seasonality. So we are going into the holiday season loaded and ready to bear. As I said, we've got a number of really strong collaborations. Connecting with consumers digitally around the world is really, really important. I talked about the collaboration that we've got with QQ Dance in China, which really is awesome, and we're connecting with the young consumer through that and really marrying the virtual world, the digital world, and the physical world with product that consumers can put on their avatar in the game and buy for themselves.

We've got a lot of exciting things that just continue to put the brand at the center of attention. We will continue to double down on our marketing. Every time we do it appears to be working. We feel really confident as we go into the holiday that we've got a really strong program lined up for the fourth quarter and through the holiday season.

Bob Drbul
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities

Great. Thank you very much. Good luck, guys.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Got it, Bob.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alexandra Walvis with Goldman Sachs.

Alexandra Walvis
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hey, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. I wonder if you could dig a little bit more into the strategy with respect to off-price. Could you remind us of when the decline in sales to that channel started? Perhaps your views on how long that will continue. Any color on how big off-price is as a % of the Americas business today would be helpful, and where do you see that going over time?

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Hi, Alex. First of all, just to back up, we don't make for off-price. There are a lot of apparel manufacturers that see that as an ongoing channel. They build product specifically to hit those price points, and they're kind of in there on an ongoing basis. We do not do that. We treat off-price purely as a channel for selling distressed inventory. We sold a lot last year because part of the Dockers reset, as a matter of fact, we had to get rid of a lot of inventory, so we had a lot of it in the base period. Our inventory position really started to get very clean as we were coming into Q2 of this year. There will be some hangover on off-price going through Q1 of next fiscal year.

Our objective, as we continue to manage our inventories pretty aggressively, is to avoid using off-price. We will only go to off-price when we are trying to get rid of distressed inventory. It's not healthy from a brand management standpoint, and it's certainly not attractive financially. Finding Levi's in one of these off-price customers at $14.99 just makes it really, really hard to sell Levi's at full price in this market. That's how we're trying to manage it. The off-price cycle will end in Q1 of 2020 from a lapping standpoint. Does that answer your question?

Alexandra Walvis
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

It does indeed. Thank you so much. That's really helpful. One more if you wouldn't mind me sneaking in follow-up to some of the earlier questions. Could you give us any color on how fast Signature grew this quarter, and then perhaps also Denizen, given some of the measures that you're taking in Target?

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Yeah. Both of those brands we didn't even talk about them in the prepared remarks. Both brands were essentially flat for the quarter. One of the things in Target, I did say that as we tested Levi's Red Tab in Target, we pulled Denizen. We have had a conversation with Target about going back and testing Denizen, because it plays at a very different price point, and Target's a very different consumer. Going back into some of those original test stores and seeing what happens when we put Denizen back in incrementally.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Alex, the flat for the quarter was on the back of a 15% growth in quarter three of last year.

Alexandra Walvis
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Awesome. Thanks, guys. We'll look it up.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.

Kimberly Greenberger
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you so much. I'm wondering if you can just talk about the accounting impact when you acquire a distributor. Is there a sort of subsequent benefit in future quarters to revenue, to EBIT dollars? If you can just sort of walk us through how to think about the impact. Understanding that you're not giving 2020 guidance today, I'm just wondering if you have a view of how we should, on a preliminary basis, think about FX impacts going into next year. Lastly, China, you indicated, grew modestly in the quarter. I'm wondering if that's sort of meeting your expectations, and what are the sort of puts or takes in China as separate from Hong Kong? Thank you.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Okay, Kim, let me answer one and two, and then Chip can answer China. Let's take the first one, which is the acquisition. Our distributor model is very similar to the wholesale model, which is it's a sell-in model. We sell into the distributor, they mark up, and book the consumer revenue at their end. When we announced the transaction, and the transaction is very consistent with our philosophy to deploy capital to grow this business and actually growth in markets where we think we can drive the business faster than some of our partners. The reason we stopped selling in quarter three and quarter four was largely to avoid the accounting issue that you're talking about. Plus, the distributor had enough inventory.

In terms of the change in business model, what will happen is post the acquisition, the business model will move from a wholesale business model, where we were recognizing the revenues based on sell-in, to a consumer business model where we recognize the revenues based on sell out. That's the change. We will give a perspective on the impact of the acquisition in 2020 when we talk about 2020 guidance in early 2020, in the fourth quarter earnings. We're in the process of taking a hard look on what is the impact of the business conversion, plus importantly, what are the dollars and cents we have to invest, whether it's in advertising, whether it's in organization. Intrinsically, we believe that this transaction is accretive to EPS over the long term and does accelerate growth in that market. That's the question on the acquisition.

To your question about FX. If I could predict FX, I'd be probably doing something very different. What I would say right now is it's probably best to use today's rates as the best proxy. When we close out the year and talk about 2020, at that point, we'll indicate the impact on 2020. I think the best indicator is probably current spot rates. The last question, I think was on China.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Okay. On China, I think just backing way up, since we're new to a lot of you, China is still a huge opportunity for us. It represents about 3% of our total business overall. As we said in the prepared remarks, it grew 2% in the quarter, primarily driven by the strength of our business in company-operated doors. We've been evolving our China business over the last couple of years. You go back two fiscal years, we declined in China. Last fiscal year, we were flat. We took a number of steps in China last year to set ourselves up for success long term in China. We took back a number of franchise stores in Beijing and Shanghai, where we own and operate our own doors. We stopped heavily discounting in Tmall, and now we're basically selling predominantly full price product.

We are now moving to premiumize and super premiumize that marketplace because that's what's working there if you particularly look at other brands. I talked a little bit about this new store that we opened in Wuhan. It's 7,000 square feet. It's over 3 levels. That store features expansive sections for all of our premium collections, including Levi's Made & Crafted, Levi's Authorized Vintage, and Levi's Vintage Clothing. It's also got a massive tailor shop. We're putting kind of customization and personalization right at the forefront of everything. We're going to continue to focus on strengthening and premiumizing the way the Levi's brand shows up in that marketplace. We've got a brand new team on the ground that's led by Amy Yang, who we hired about a year ago. She's Chinese.

We're very optimistic that we've turned the corner, and we expect much stronger results over the next couple of years as it represents one of the biggest opportunities we've got.

Operator

Terrific. Thank you.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Omar Saad with Evercore ISI.

Omar Saad
Analyst, Evercore ISI

Thanks for taking my question. I guess I wanted to ask about tops. It looks like it accelerated from the mid-teens to the high teens. It's an area in your business where maybe there's been some skepticism about the sustainability and the fashion quotient there. The graphic tees piece, I think you said, is only +6. Maybe help us deconstruct what's really working in that business. Men's, women's, international. Is it all trucker jackets? Help us to think about some of the strategies going forward for that category. Clearly, you're being able to sustain the level of growth at a high rate, maybe perhaps higher than some had expected. Thanks.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Thanks, Omar. Clearly, an under-penetrated opportunity for us. The acceleration quarter-over-quarter from that perspective is largely driven. If you think about our tops business, think of about a third being tees, made up the bulk of it graphic tees, a third truckers and sweatshirts, and a third woven and other stuff that we don't sell a lot of, and there's a huge opportunity. Think polo T-shirts from that perspective. The acceleration in quarter three relative to quarter two, it was driven by truckers and sweatshirts really growing at a much faster clip than the average that we indicated of 17%.

As you think about our longer-term opportunities, just get a preview of what's coming on the pike and for H1 and H2 of 2020, I think is really focusing on the other opportunities we have, I think is what makes us confident that we can continue to grow this for a long time.

Operator

We have time for one more question. Your next question comes from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey
Analyst, Telsey Advisory Group

Good afternoon, everyone. As you think about the wholesale business and the shift that's going on, whether it's more premium or to Target, how do you see department store penetration changing? Will we see a shift in the account base of wholesale? Just lastly, on price increases that you mentioned, which began to be initiated, is that globally, and how does it range by category? Thank you.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Yeah. I guess I'll take the wholesale footprint piece. As we've said before, the channel, especially department stores and the large chain stores, which is the bulk of our legacy wholesale business, it's facing structural headwinds and challenges. One customer has gone bankrupt. That customer used to be our biggest single wholesale customer not even 10 years ago, and they are almost gone. There's going to continue to be more closures. We're going to continue to see these customers that are overstored cutting from the bottom up. To date, fiscal year to date, we've faced over 700 doors that have closed where we were in distribution, and that is going to continue for the foreseeable future.

Our commitment has been to continue to run this business, to try to manage the revenue, which is profitable revenue, in this channel to be about flat over time. I think it's inevitable that we will see a shift in what that footprint looks like as some of these bigger legacy customers close doors that they need to close. We are mapping the market and trying to preserve our wholesale business by being in the right place at the right time. I can't crystal ball exactly what it's going to look like in three years or five years. Our commitment is to, and what's built into the growth algorithm is that we will be able to maintain this business about flattish over time.

If you look at our track record, that's what we've been able to do despite all the headwinds over the last three plus years. I'm confident in our ability to be able to continue to do that.

Harmit Singh
EVP and CFO, Levi Strauss & Co.

Quickly, to answer your question about pricing. We had both during the roadshow as well as when we've met with all of you last couple of weeks, we had said pricing is an opportunity for us. The brand has pricing power. We have taken several pricing actions globally. For example, in the U.S., we raised prices on some of our fits, the 502, the 514, the 527 by 10 bucks, and it's largely sticking. We've taken several actions in Europe and Asia. In Europe, in different markets, we have taken pricing between 3% and 5%. In Asia, that's generally sticking and we're seeing an increase in AURs and that's indicated. Just the performance. If you look at what's happening in Europe and Asia, that's just indicator of the fact that the brand's hot and we're able to take pricing.

As you think about pricing strategies longer term, it's all about pricing for inflation and trying to offset currency as one bucket. It's about reducing markdowns where we can. Thirdly, it's about pricing for innovation. We did price in the second half for our Levi's Engineered Jeans in Asia and for example, that's also helping.

Operator

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to the company for any closing remarks.

Chip Bergh
President and CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

I was just about to go there. With that, I suspect we will probably be the first earnings call to wrap by wishing you all a happy holiday because we won't be back with you all until after the holidays when we report our fourth quarter. I wish you all a very happy holiday and we'll talk to you again in the new calendar year. Thank you all for dialing in today.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Please disconnect your line at this time.