Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)
NYSE: LW · Real-Time Price · USD
42.28
+0.74 (1.78%)
May 14, 2026, 10:39 AM EDT - Market open
← View all transcripts

21st Annual Global Farm to Market Conference

May 13, 2026

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Conference this year for the first time. Lamb Weston, a leading supplier of frozen potato products to restaurants and retailers globally, is nearing the one-year anniversary of beginning to execute against a redefined strategy under new leadership with a sharper focus on customers and returns. CFO Jim Gray joined the company just over one month ago, bringing his financial discipline and focus on driving sustained, profitable growth to enhance Lamb Weston's execution against its strategy. We're pleased to have Jim here to share his initial thoughts since joining Lamb Weston and discuss the company's strategic priorities. Thanks for being here.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Glad to be here. This is one of the first conferences we've done in a long, long time, so actually really, really appreciate the invite.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

We're thrilled that it's here at Farm to Market. Maybe where I would start is just having just joined Lamb Weston, what attracted you to the company? We'll start there.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, I think one, when you look at Lamb and the amazing franchise and the history it's had since the spin from Conagra, I always thought that, like, there's just gotta be inherent value in the company and kinda started doing my homework. Then maybe other than soda pop and energy drinks, you know, the ability for their, you know, value creation along the entire supply chain, right, from the consumer. What is the food service operator, you know, what does the retailer make? What does the processor make and what does the farmer make? It's just one of those rare supply chains which offers enormous economic return to kinda all participants.

That is always, I think bodes well for when you look at an industry in terms of being able to support top-line innovation, et cetera. Maybe I'm a bit of a contrarian, but I actually love having kind of a CEO in his first year and felt that I can offer some hopefully, you know, constructive counsel. I kinda like a board that's kinda having fun. I'm not one to shy away from some of the, maybe the challenges and stresses in that. I figure, like, what, you know, I probably can be a calming voice and probably add quite a bit of value to kinda this leadership team.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

When you think about that setup, and coming into the role, what do you expect to be able to leverage from your prior experience, as you come in and kind of add to what's already going on with the company?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, maybe the one piece that was surprising is just how similar the value chains are, right? You know, mother nature gives us something every year that grows, and there's variability in that. We run it through a conversion process, and there's efficiencies in the scale and cost-minding that's important. We come out with a product that needs to be marketed and sold and nurtured to a customer franchise in a way where there's actually quite a bit of value creation in the choices that our customers make, and then ultimately to the consumer and the consumer eating experience and how much value add is there. In some ways, whether it's, you know, food and beverage or it's ingredients or very similar value chain.

One of the pieces that I see is like, I think is always important in delivering consistent profit earnings is how do you reduce the volatility in any step along the way? There's a number of different, you know, lessons learned in my prior history, and I think some of those can apply absolutely to this company and this industry.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

You mentioned surprise about the supply chain. Any other kind of initial thoughts first month in, or surprises that are worth mentioning?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

I mean, I think that the first of all, the team and kind of our ability to kinda get at data is outstanding. You kinda hear ERP change and, you know, oh, maybe we fumbled on that implementation. The fact is that the systems data is actually quite good, surprisingly good. There's a remarkable amount of detail there. In this day and age, setting up with good data and then being able to, like, say, "Okay, where am I at on my process? Where am I at on my AI journey?" Like, that's always the first things you wanna check or otherwise that's two or three years of work. I think that's probably one piece that I'm kinda positively surprised about.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Walk me through the immersion plan, your areas of focus over the next three, six, 12 months, how you're thinking about your priorities.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, I think first is being able to, you know, recognizing we're at the end of our fiscal quarter, so we end kind of May 31. Setting up for next year's AOP plan, thinking about, hey, how are we going to finish this year, relative to the various financial metrics, and then, you know, what are we setting out there for guidance? Again, right now it's a busy time of the year for my team and myself with the board, and being able to just be able to say, "This is the kind of the lie of the ball and this is the game we're playing and this is where we're heading for 2027." I think that's first and foremost.

Second is, you know, Debbie Hancock and I have been working a lot with shareholders, to understand kinda where's the voice of shareholders right now, so that we are coalescing all the input, and being able to develop a game plan against that. Then just actually knowing the business and knowing my team. So that's been a little bit busy for them because we've been actually just jumping straight in and doing. Hopefully we'll get more time to actually know the team as well.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Great.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

As we go forward.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

We've known each other for a while, but maybe for investors that don't have the history with you, how do you think about the key drivers of long-term value creation?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. Wow. That's a great question. Fully loaded. So first, you know, as someone who always encourages building business, you have to make sure that your leader and your commercial team and your operations team understanding that they are all playing together to drive operating income growth, right? That can start with top line. You know, that can start with an efficiency model in terms of the business. You, you have to have the front part of the team driving operating income growth, and I mean, fully measured, including depreciation and all the costs. You, you work with the finance team on making sure that your fiscal policy is impacting smartly all the way down to adjusted EPS.

And then set a, I think, a course forward on, you know, what you think adjusted EPS growth can be. Probably the last piece of that is just always making sure that the capital investment is very disciplined, such that when you know, you pull up and you actually measure ROIC, you know, that you're actually not just, you know, driving a better ROIC. You're actually thinking about how am I actually improving the ROIC or how am I actually indirectly creating EVA and growing EVA. There's only so much I think an organization can understand.

The parts for us are get the operators focused on driving up income growth, be smart on your fiscal policy and driving adjusted EPS and maybe dividend or total TSR, but then, be thoughtful about capital and capital turns on ROIC.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Shifting gears a little bit, maybe zooming out, can you give us a sense for the structure of your customer base, your mix across channels, kind of the nuts and bolts of how of what the business mix looks like?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, you know, we did change segments a couple years ago, we actually report on North America and International, but, you know, prior to that, it was some characterization of our customer base. You know, we're probably about 80%+ , 85% food service in kind of all elements. Full on the biggest global chains, regional chains, and then through distributors, all of the independent restaurant operators out there. We also have a fairly large retail business. I think we're number one in terms of sourcing the product within the U.S. We have some brands, but we also do private labels. We actually get to play in grocery and club and mass on both dimensions.

We don't really feel like, you know, the headwinds on the grocery basket, if it's against branded, because we're also kind of a big supplier in terms of private label. You know, on the branded side, we've done that through licensing of some restaurant brands. Some restaurant franchises have a very unique, kind of identifying, fry or chip that they make, and we've branded some of those and been actually quite successful. In fact, like, I like, you know, the Checkers brand is out there. I like to say that the Checkers brand is the leading retail brand in the Pac Northwest. If any of you know Checkers, they don't have outlets in the Pac Northwest. That's sort of interesting, right?

You know, 35 days in, I gotta step back and think about, okay, hey, wait a minute, what's the power of what we're actually doing and the product and the product quality? I think there's some fun opportunities there as well.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Interesting. Okay. In terms of the crop cycles, your sourcing, your pricing, how does that all work together?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. I think the crop cycle in potato is super like, it's super interesting in that and it's actually surprising, the maturity and the sophistication. Maybe I'll talk just about the Pac Northwest or North America. Potatoes need to grow in a very loamy soil, sandy soil. We have a lot of volcanic soil that's, you know, all the way from the Yellowstone Basin, follow the Snake River and then through the Columbia River Basin. An amazing spot to grow potatoes. Just enough moisture during the planting, which is kinda now, like, well, maybe a month ago, kind of really, no, Feb's too early, a little too cold. Probably more March, April. We're gonna harvest anywhere between September and October.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Okay.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Understand, all of the farmers are amazingly sophisticated. We have irrigation, automatic fertilization, super efficient on the fertilization. Constantly monitoring both the crop health such that we can almost time exactly when we need the pull-up. We'll direct that. Our ag team actually works with our partner farmers to actually say, "Okay, we're ready to go right now, and we like the size of your potato, and we wanna halt that starch growing and starch degradation into sugar." It's remarkably precise when we're pulling up. Why does that matter, right? It's super subtle, but it's kind of interesting, right? A potato plant's gonna grow eight to 10 potatoes.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Okay.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

The ones that started early, the good old Idaho potatoes, they turn out to be like that big. That's what makes those big, beautiful french fries. You also get four or five potatoes that are gonna be that big, and you get one or two that are that big. We're buying the whole crop. When we go and process them, we gotta make sure that the super big ones get cut a certain way, so those are the premium, and we can sell those for more value. The medium ones, we might make wedges. Or something smaller. The very small ones and all the chips, we might make hash browns. We use the whole crop, we use however the potato shows up, and we use all of the harvest.

If you do that efficiently and you get a great quality crop, you're gonna get a lot of margin value add, which is kinda why when you look at our North America segment and you see the profitability there, part of that's because we have the scale in the Columbia River Basin. We have very precise farming, and we actually know how to take that crop and maximize the value out of it.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Interesting.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

I know I started with this in my intro, it's been almost a year now since the company began executing against the Focus to Win strategy.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Coming in with some fresh eyes, how has the execution against that strategy gone so far? Are there areas where you guys are ahead of schedule, behind pace? How would you frame that?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. I think within, you know, Focus to Win, first is looking at, okay, well, which markets do you play in, and are you prioritizing those markets? I think probably within our international business, we're still sort of actually kind of assessing that, and some work's underway. One of the big tenets was, is, okay, so focus on the right customers, so winning with the winning customers, and make sure that we've gone back and repaired any damage that we had to customer relationships. And that journey probably started more than a year and a half ago. We've been, I think, demonstrated quite a bit of success, right? How do you say that?

Well, you say, "Well, Jim, I mean, volume's up, you know, in North America, probably in a market where we've gained some share." Maybe if you said restaurant foot traffic is down a digit, down two maybe, and it sort of recovered in, you know, Q1 a little bit. You know, the stack year-over-year-over-year probably still says, you know, QSR traffic is down. It's demonstrated because we're rolling over multiyear contracts, and we're doing that with expanded volume on top of great service, and I would say with pricing that is fair and adjusted from the peaks following the kind of 2022, 2023 inflation everywhere, pricing was quite easy, and so probably overpriced a bit. Those contracts now are rolling over.

We have nice contract pricing maturation, which is playing out in the business. That's a good demonstrated achievement with some of the toughest multinational customers around. The second big part is we really wanted to focus on operational excellence and cost savings. The team has really jumped on both SG&A as well as COGS savings. We have advertised out there a $250 million run rate savings by fiscal 2028. We put $100 million in front of our sales this fiscal year, fiscal 2026, which ends in May. We're well ahead of that. On our earnings call, we'll catch everybody up with where we're at.

We've been able to do it through kind of all the normal elements that you would think of within, you know, manufacturing optimization. Not just procurement, you know, not just closing one or two factories. Actually, the really hard work, driving OEE, driving efficiencies, driving yields. Because we have the data, we can be super focused on where we wanna do that and where we wanna do that well.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

I wanna talk about that in one second, but in terms of strengthening the customer relationships, I guess, what have you found to be most, you know, what moves the needle the most in those discussions? You guys have also talked a little bit about price and trade support, kinda how should we think about the duration of that and how that plays out?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Would love to hear about that.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

I think, one, in terms of you know, being able to look at the customer relationships, I mean, especially in some of the most global or the largest franchises, is that it is a multi-decade partnership. This is, you know even though we may contract in three-year or two-year cycles, we are absolutely in this to protect the availability and the service to each and every one of our restaurant operators. When they're making a choice in terms of what they wanna serve daily, and, you know, if that french fry is a complement, maybe even it's kinda symbolic of the franchise and how they add value, you got a service level, and you got a quality level that you have to hit all the time.

Believe it or not, I mean, we get audited, and the quality specs are pretty stringent in terms of what shows up in a bag. I'll give you one example. If you think about a curly fry and you think, "Oh, okay, well, yeah, I've had a curly fry," right? Well, how many curls are in the fry, right? Two, three, four, right? You get one of those ones, it comes out, it's big, it's gnarly. You're like, "Wow." Okay, then you also address those, so that's good, right? You also get a loop, and you also get a half-moon. Well, if you put too many loops and too many half-moons in a bag, your operators get upset. Why?

They get upset because when they wanna serve curly fry next to a big stacked hamburger, they want the volume and the 3D dimension of the fries to stand up on the plate. They want it to look like it's a voluminous serving. That conveys value-add. That impresses the consumer at the eating occasion. By the way, you're actually also serving less ounces 'cause they curl and they form, right? You actually have less weight going out on the plate. You're actually getting more value conveyed to the consumer. They're offering that in their meal, and that allows us to actually charge up on price. Delivering quality, that doesn't work if you get a whole bunch of moons and half circles. If you get loops and like, your plate's flat, that's bad, right?

Quality and the size of that massive potato that you need to cut so that it spins around and you get that loop, that's what we monitor. The quality from the customer and the franchise is actually really important to conveying value to the consumer.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

As somebody who really enjoys french fries, this resonates with me. I appreciate that.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

I don't know, Andrew, you might be a volume guy. I'm just saying.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Generally speaking, yes. In terms of the operational improvements, Can you walk through some of the changes that have happened? You talked about some of the metrics, but how have you achieved that?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

I think, you know, whenever I sort of look at an operations group, I think about really three things. One, you know, what are the people, and both the leadership at the plants, but also just, you know, your folks on the front line. You know, how are your day-to-day operators working within a culture? Two, what are the routines, right? Three, what's the capital that's there, right? If those three things are coming together, you're going to be spending capital extremely efficiently, and you're gonna be surprised by both the culture and the routines coming together to drive whatever leading indicator you want coming out of your manufacturing. Just I think under, you know, Sylvia's leadership, who's our Global Supply Chain Officer, she's been in place about two years.

She's got her team in place, and she's really instilled this culture down. It's not just that we see procurement savings. You know, we have a wonderful procurement officer. We've done a lot of work with our top 10 suppliers, we have seen rate savings. More importantly, what we're seeing is within the network, the plants that we really wanna run well, we're running them with the right schedule, with the right type of product quality, and we're seeing it come out the back end in terms of usage rates, lower utility rates, lower water, you know, lower labor costs, et cetera. That's actually been probably the biggest single driver of the amount of cost savings that we have showing up in the P&L.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Great. How does innovation fit into the picture here?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

How does that fit into the strategy? Where are the opportunities? Maybe how do you go about bringing that to market?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Can you talk through that, please?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

I mean, I get excited and you know that I kinda love the details and kinda where the price and where the value is. I think if I could channel Mike Smith, our CEO, for a minute, in that the ability to do a frozen french fry product is not available in every restaurant operator. Okay? There's quite a few restaurant units out there that don't have a freezer and maybe don't have a fryer, right? To the extent that we can think about, well, can we take a product that's baked, right, and be able to just extend our penetration into restaurant units that don't have those assets in their infrastructure, and we can actually make it simple for the back of the kitchen to actually create the product.

There's things that we can do with cut, with coating, with texture, how we actually par-fry, and then how we freeze and store and ship, such that I think that that's kind of market expansive. And then within that, again, we talked a little bit about curly fries, but the amount of different cuts that we can do and how we proportion control exactly for the franchise operator, I think is an innovation battle that we should always be running every single day. And then just kind of as a platform, you know, I think there's a lot of LTOs, and there's experimentation on flavoring and on coating. You can get super textured crunchy. You can go crazy on flavors. And we have kind of all the ability to do that. That is kind of a common discussion.

The question is, well, how much does a restaurant operator wanna use that as a way to kind of excite, freshen up, their menu value, for a period of time?

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Got it. Okay. Just broadly on the demand environment, you know, with gas prices higher.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

stretched consumers, how have you seen demand evolve? How are customers maybe approaching this environment today?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. Well, I think all of our restaurant partners are kind of fighting a little bit for traffic. They're also super sensitive to the value to the consumer, right? Whether you talk about K-shaped economy and necessarily I mean, we do focus a quite a bit on QSRs. I'd say both kind of QSRs as well as maybe that kind of next level up in terms of not quite fast casual, but the, you know, the higher end. They're all concerned about, you know, how much are they conveying in terms of value to the consumer. The thing that I don't see that's changed is the kind of the mega trend, which is, I still think away from home. The eating occasion away from home or out socially is still a positive trend, right?

When whether or not you come out of COVID or you look at Gen Z, the ability to be able to say, "Hey, I'm going to enjoy the occasion to gather," and meals may be part of that. Alcohol may be less part of that, but a meal and definitely, you know, I think a french fry it can be part of that. That megatrend of away-from-home eating, I think, still exists and actually is probably even more apparent in some of the developing countries that we're in.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Mm-hmm. Yeah. On the international business, can you kinda walk through the composition of the international business as it stands today and how we should think about that evolving over the next number of years? I mean, I think about markets that are in very different stages, right? How do you see that evolving?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, I mean, if you follow our own Lamb Weston, I mean, the International segments results this year have been super tough. You know, not good. You know, just obviously, we need to do better. I think when we peel the onion on International, though, I'd characterize as kind of two markets where we've invested a bunch of money and are actually in pretty good growth opportunities. One, we've added a second plant in China, and we have a brand-new plant down in Argentina serving, kind of the Mercosur, you know, Brazil market. Both are in the early stages of their ramp-up, just naturally, as we're going to go into the next year or the third year of that ramp-up, we're going to see kind of incremental volume that will absorb fixed costs.

That's pretty typical of a food manufacturer where we'll kind of invest in an asset and hopefully we can get it ramped within two, if not three years. EMEA, which is really served by our European manufacturing base and U.K. base, that competitive market, I think, is in a different world of hurt. you know, and candidly, a lot of the European industry probably was manufacturing to domestic demand, probably call it 60%-7 0%, maybe as high as 80%. Export volume out of Europe to other parts of the world was a solid 20%-25% of the capacity. That has been met with kinda localization post-COVID.

You got India manufacturers, you got some China manufacturers, and they can both serve both China, they can serve Southeast Asia, they can serve India, and then India can get to the Middle East. Now you have Europe, which traditionally had sourced product into those very, very big population areas, and now it's facing that headwind. That industry, we're gonna have to rationalize some capacity at some point.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

I wanna ask about that in one second.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Okay.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

You mentioned, you know, some of the softer performance in the international-

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

-side. You know, some of that is the market. I'm wondering internally, what can you do to improve performance there? Is there anything kind of outside of the broader market trends that the company's doing?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. I think when you always step back and you have to think about, okay, so I have My demand has slowed. I have excess capacity. First is a timing question, okay? Is this gonna be something that lasts for three months, six months, 12 months, 18 months? How much can I endure, right? You may curtail. If you have multiple plants, you can curtail a plant. You can furlough it, you know, shut it down temporarily. This is a business that you can actually take out capacity and actually save some money and protect the P&L. We have done that. We've curtailed one plant.

If the timing is such that you think it's gonna be longer, then at any point in time, you kinda have to look at four or five or six plants, and you gotta be able to say, "Okay, I gotta rationalize." The key to doing that, though, is not so much identifying which plant. It's making sure that you've actually had conversations with customers about retaining the volume that's sourced from that plant that you would consider shuttering and making sure that you can get the vast majority of that volume back in your other plants. If you can do that, then usually sometimes the economics sorta work out, and you're actually better positioned for the future because you've concentrated volume, you're getting better asset utilization, your ROIC is up, your future capital investment required has gone down, and you're actually getting a better return.

The key, though, to that is that if you do that, you need to signal to competitors, like, "Let me go through this change. Don't attack my customer base so that I can manage the sourcing." What that does is it allows the other competitors to realize that they can do the same. If I think if you can get a few of those dominoes to fall, you can get some industry capacity rationalization, right? If they decide to attack, then you're gonna attack, right? You know, just generally that's like, you know, when you have as many plants as you have in Europe and you've got it spread across multiple competitors, you just need some thoughtful, you know, step-by-step planned rationalization at some point.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

There was the one plant closure. You talked about the curtailments. Have you seen similar actions across the competitive set, or are we still very early in that, in what you just described?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. I think we're still in the first phase of the timing, so people are going, "Well, like, you know, is this conflict/war in Ukraine, how quickly might that end? Does it take three months, four months, six months for Brent oil price to return to some normal?" I mean, that's still a huge uncertainty that's hanging over the balance of this year. I think the competition is probably just delaying. You know, they're definitely delaying any capacity expansion. You know, they'll probably choose to do what we've done, which is also, like, just curtail-.

production. We'll see necessarily kinda where the fulcrum is in terms of a long-term vision.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

I have a question here on the asset footprint globally. You kinda touched on it. Do you Is that the scale of rationalization that you think is required when you look at the footprint? You know, is Maybe frame that.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, I mean, I think that, you know, We're in the midst of sort of, you know, thinking about what is the absolute international footprint, and what are the flows.

that naturally go in between. I mean, the more important question is, okay, so, you're close to a wonderful biome where you grow potatoes. You, you know, you don't wanna ship potatoes 'cause they're a lot of water and they're heavy and they bruise, right? You can't really move them a long ways because, you know, eventually the starch starts to degrade into sugars, and actually that impacts the quality of the french fry. Your manufacturing is generally close to your, to where your potatoes are growing. Now what you wanna do is say, like, "Coming out of my factory in a frozen supply chain, what markets can I get into?" You know. Markets are always driven by where people live and exist, right?

We wanna make sure that as we're always looking through that lens is what's our right to win, right? Whether we do that ourselves with our own assets, whether we do it through strategic partnerships, maybe we do it with, you know, with go-to-market help up front. I think that's sort of the thinking that we're looking at right now before we just pull back and just say like, "Oh, okay, well, we have a cost problem. Let's solve our cost problem." We really wanna solve the strategic answer first and then know that we're setting ourselves up to move the needle in international as we go forward.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Okay. In terms of the geopolitical environment, high gas prices, higher fertilizer prices, maybe supply issues, are there implications for your business? Obviously, restaurant traffic is a given. Just internally, as you think about executing against the strategy, how do you think about maybe potential implications from that?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. Well, if there's one supply chain that can actually tolerate some inflation over time, this is probably it. And yet, you know, obviously you're always gonna be transparent with customers around the types of cost inflation that we're getting hit with. You know, I think probably most directly would probably be, you know, oil into our packaging, right? Into our packaging costs. Well, not a big portion of our COGS, I mean, but significant enough. Typically packaging is kind of on an index basis, and so we'll, you know, we'll get that cost passed through to us.

Packaging's a tough one because you can't always just immediately directly go to a customer and say, "Hey, I gotta go take up your pricing 'cause of my packaging cost inflation." They understand diesel prices, they understand freight costs, much more. You know, we work with customers in terms of, you know 'Cause we have three or four different types of contracting methods and kinda when they hit and when they allow us to take pricing. We'll be obviously actively having that. I think maybe the exposure is just a little bit of lag in terms of input cost inflation hitting the P&L, but then having the confidence that you're gonna get it back as you go forward.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

I wanted to ask about the capital plan, if capacity expansions are not a focus anymore as they were under the kind of the prior strategy, and potentially pivoting to debt paydown, cash returns to shareholders over time. How do you think about capital allocation philosophically for this business? I know thoroughly obviously, but just general thoughts.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Well, never one to not have a hypothesis. I, you know, first, you know, again, you know, if I went back to, like, generating the operating income and being smart about that growth, that translates into, okay, go generate good cash from operations, right? Consistent and a high level. Try and manage the net investment and working capital. Hopefully, that's maybe a negative even. You're starting off with a really healthy kind of cash from operations. I think for our business, when we think about reliability capital investment, you know, right now we're probably thinking between $350 million-$400 million for next year. We're not quite decided on that. Still have to talk to the board. That leaves maybe about $200 million for our dividends.

We'll have strategic cash to deploy as we think about next year. We have four choices. Organic growth, probably not needed right now. M&A, probably also not needed. You know, share repurchase and/or kind of debt reduction. You know, again, haven't really made a recommendation to the board, but I would probably lean a little bit more towards debt reduction. Right now, I think we run about 3.5 x debt to EBITDA. We'd like to see kind of maybe a little bit more stability on the balance sheet and maybe getting us below 3.3 x debt to EBITDA. Although again, you know, need to make sure I'm aligned with Mike and the board on, hey, what those preferences are.

We have purchased back shares too, because of, you know, I always think about buying back shares opportunistically. You know, we run an intrinsic value on the company. We'll see, you know, where those are at. Hopefully, if we focus on cash from operations, and that's a healthy number, then we're left with difficult choices on strategic cash deployment.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Good problem to have certainly. We only have a couple minutes left. Is there any message that you wanna kinda leave the audience with, you know, on the way out?

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah. I just think that, one, in that, look, Lamb and our team have had a lot of input from a lot of folks. We've had, you know, some board changes. Always welcome feedback. You know, diversity of thought from shareholders is actually welcome. Management team is gonna coalesce, and we're very much with Jan Craps, our Executive Chair, and with Mike Smith. We're very much focused on how do we get to a sustainable, you know, algorithm, a sustainable business model in this, in what we think the financial performance of Lamb can be in the next one, two, three years. And very much excited about helping to build that. Pretty confident that we can get there.

Hopefully that's, you know, a bit of a turnaround from kind of what we've demonstrated in 2026.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Great.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Yeah.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

We'll leave it there.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Thank you.

Andrew Lazar
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you very much for being here.

Jim Gray
CFO, Lamb Weston

Thanks for being here.

Powered by