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Analyst Day 2015
Aug 14, 2015
During the course of this meeting, we may make projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company and the industry. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that during the course of this meeting, we may make projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company and the industry. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to the documents the company files on a consolidated basis from time to time with the Securities And Exchange Commission, specific the company's most recent Form 10 k and Form 10 q. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the actual results for the company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward looking statements.
These certain factors can be found in the Investor Relations section of Micron's website. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, rebels of activity, performance, or achievements,
We are under no duty
to update any of the forward looking statements after the date of the presentation to conform these statements to actual results.
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for coming to Micron's 2015 summer Analyst Day. Both of you that are here in person as
well as the webcast.
We I think it will be a great day for everyone. Our CEO, Mark Turkin, will kick it off, followed by Mark Adams, our president, Scott Tibbor, our VP of R and D, and then Ernie Maddick, our chief financial officer. Just so everybody knows, we are gonna save Q and A for the end. So you may wanna take notes as we go through and of what questions you wanna ask. And then at the very end, we'll bring all the speakers back up, for Q And A.
So with that,
I'll turn it over to Mr. Mark Durkin. Well, thank you Ivan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for coming. It's a great pleasure to see so many old familiar faces in the room today.
I think we have a pretty good presentation put together for you. It should answer, a lot of to have about the company and our focus on a go forward basis. But as I just mentioned, in the event we missed anything that's important to you or that we need to cover, we set aside that plenty of time at the end for, for, questions and answers. And as we move through the agenda, we'll, we'll try and present material in a free flow fashion and then come back at the end and answer those questions. If I can advance the slide here.
Clicker's not working. Here we go. I'll kick off with a few views on on, where we are. From an industry environment perspective. And given that, how Micom plans to focus and execute over the next 18 months to 2 years.
Spend a little bit of time to keep a strategic imperative for us and, what are we really focused on executing? Mark Adams, will then join with a lot more detail around how are we interacting with our customers, what are the markets that we're going after in the products that we're going to bring to market and how we plan to grow the business over the next couple of years. Scott Dabour, we'll talk about the technology roadmap, the innovation we're driving at Micron, and how that fuels, not only the product roadmap, but our ability to build in new value for the customers. And finally, hopefully, many of you already know earning math from from, his his previous, jobs and career, those of you that that that didn't know previously We have met him at this point, but he will come up last and talk about the financial strategy of the company a little bit more about capital allocation and how we plan on providing information to our investors on a go forward basis as well as how we plan on managing the company. And then again, I'll come back at the end to talk about Q And A.
I thought it would be to start off today, with a a view of the last couple of cycles, last three cycles in semiconductor industry. And it it's not because I want to, convince you where we might be in any cycle or what the magnitude of any cycle might be, but just to kinda show you the trend because we are navigating, you know, I think what many people are are challenging circumstances at the moment, but there there is a lot that's positive when we actually look at the data in terms of what's happening in the in the memory industry. If we go back before the financial crisis in 2008, you can see, what was a pretty severe semiconductor cycle down, roughly 25% a negative growth at the bottom of the cycle and an even more severe memory cycle with a strong kickback following the end of the crisis. And this cycle is actually probably more shorter, attenuated in terms of its period, given the interruption of the of the financial crisis and what was going on with global economy, but probably more typical in terms of a semiconductor cycle looks like if you go back to the previous cycles prior to that.
If you look at what's happened since then, cycle that that followed of a financial crisis. So I'm plotting here is, peak quarter over quarter growth to the quarter before the next peak. I apologize here. We're having Somebody talking. You have a go.
This will this will work a little bit better. So, what we're looking at here is is is peak quarterly quarter over quarter, growth in the in the semiconductor industry and the dotted lines and and the solid line showing what's going on in the memory industry. And you can see that next cycle had a had a big snapback from memory, obviously, a very strong cycle at the beginning. And then a long what we think of really as sort of an L shape recovery, not the big upside, at the end of the cycle, but not the big downsides that we've seen in some previous cycles. And then when you look at what happened what's happened since then, you see this continued, protracted l recovery, really, a little bit of a, you know, a minimal peak there in the memory market, up 30% quarter over quarter at the peak in in, in the middle of 2 2013, but but but really then ongoing, really a ripple sort of performance.
And I think what you're seeing here, the the reason I show you this is not to say where are we in the cycle, but to show you, that really now we've had a long period of relative muted volatility in the memory market and a long period of relative outperformance, for the memory business. So when we think about, what is going on in the memory business today? Yes, we're seeing, price declines given the historic underperformance of the PC segment over the last, a number of quarters. And I think, really caught a a number of us by surprise, but but not a cataclysmic cycle. And this is a slide now that I think is familiar to many of you, but I think it's it is supported by what I just showed which is that the memory industry, really has changed.
It's in the data. It's in the cycle. And there's and there's real reason for it. You can actually see the detail when you look at the detail of those of those cycle flights. So first of all, consolidated suppliers.
We all have sufficient scale. We're really kind of in an environment where where the suppliers in the marketplace, appear to be, investing for for return on invested capital. And if you look at the kind of the ripples that you saw in that last cycle, you don't see these big swings in terms of supply and, wafer supply in the marketplace. What you see is is a ram ramifications of of small perturbations in the demand cycles. So we got low supply growth, limited new wafer capacity coming online.
I'll show you some more data on that here in a little bit. And the slowing technology migrations that come with the slowing of Moore's Law, really driving a situation where where the the incumbents in the market have to intentionally add wafers in order to grow supply faster than demand. And finally, I think is maybe the least appreciated change that's gone in the memory industry, which is the rapid diversification of the end markets we serve and the differentiator really creating a situation where where memory suppliers today have a lot more opportunity to differentiate their products, a lot more opportunity to add value, for end customers whether it's through, component differentiated functionality or through through system level performance. But that that broadening of the markets and the ability to target those markets, I think, over time, will lead to a a memory industry that looks a lot more like the dotted lines in those pre slides are are much more like the semiconductor industry overall, but with the enhanced growth that you've seen over the last couple of years. Here we go.
So, what does that look like for DRAM today? When we think about what's going on in DRAM supply, our view now is that 2015 Big growth will come in right around 25%. We're, you know, we're not through the year yet, so that could still move up or down a a small amount. But I think the dye is pretty well cast. That's about what we're going to see.
And on a go forward basis, as we look at, what do we think is happening in the marketplace for 2016? We think it's going to be about the same. We're projecting 24%. And, and that, we believe, while a little bit too much 2015 is probably just fine given any sort of normal market on a go forward basis. And on the right side of the graph here, what you what you see is this diversification of end demand, as I mentioned before.
We've got continued shrinking of the most commoditized client segment of the market continued growth in both in in in mobile, which provides opportunity to differentiate and have system value differentiated form factors And in enterprise, where we can really drive, a value added performance and differentiation And finally, in the embedded market, it's not growing as a percent of the total, but still growing with the market in areas like automotive, medical, real, and providing a large opportunities for for value added products as well. Switching to NAND, it's it's a very similar picture. The the numbers are coming from a higher high and and saturating at a at at about 35% on a go forward basis, although really in order to maintain that, we're going to need additional wafers into the 3 going forward. One of the dynamics that's different in the NAND market today, than than in the DRAM market is we have this additional effect, which is not only the slowing of technology migration. But for many of the competitors in the industry, we're starting to see a saturation in terms of the conversion of MLC to TLC.
And as that happens, it will take bit growth out of the marketplace. So with Samsung running, maybe roughly 70% TLC today, their ability to drive more bits just by by shifting out applications from MLC TLC will diminish. That should slow the growth of of supply in the marketplace, similarly for Sandisk at 50%, etcetera. For Micron, we're we're we're further back on that curve. So Micron today does have TLC components into the marketplace, but we have more headroom to grow that that piece of our business on a go forward basis.
And again, on the right hand side, looking at the diversification, you see a continued shrinking of of the consumer and, removable section of market but very robust growth in both mobile and SSDs. And then the nice thing about the NAND market is the elasticity of this demand. So as we think about, some of the new technologies that are coming to market, we believe there will be the opportunity to to grow the market as we grow supply given some of the technology shifts that are coming to enable potentially lower price points. Given all of that and what we've seen historically, which is steady growth on real terms, of the memory industry, whether it's DRAM or NAND, we feel pretty good about continuing to invest through these cycles. So as we think about, what does Micron need to do to participate in the memory market?
We believe that there is continued growth ahead. We believe, that the the products we are we are providing to our customer we'll be able to add differentiated value. We believe we'll be able to put them into into differentiated markets. And over time, generate a real return on the invested capital that we're bringing to the marketplace. And we'll talk more about what some of those investments are as we go through the presentation today.
Thing that's changed dramatically is how that supply is coming to the market and how it is meeting end market demand. So if you look now at, in the blue line, the growth of memory as a percent of total semiconductor market. You can see that, yes, it's cyclical also, and then continue to grow through 2000, you can see that that growth was being driven by dramatic surge in wafer capacity. And that was new entrants at the time, and a and a transition with, incumbent bringing new 300 millimeter capacity in the marketplace, driving a rapid expansion in wafer supply in the memory industry. We have a very different dynamic today with consolidated suppliers.
And What happens when we have that dramatic supply and wafer dramatic increase in wafer supply is that we didn't get paid for the extra bits we were providing to the industry. And you can see these 2 curves are actually anti correlated. If you flash forward now to what's going on in in, in 2014, 2015, since we've had the significant consolidation we've had is you don't see that growth anymore. And the result is, in fact, you see it shrinking as new technologies take take net wafers out of the market. On a relative basis.
And what you see there is continued growth in the re continue to outperformance of memory relative to the semiconductor industry as, as we get paid for the incremental tips we're providing. So overall, we we believe, that this trend is more likely to continue rather than less likely continue and gives us additional confidence in the investments we need to make. What are we focused on for 2015 2016? It's pretty simple. It's it's about investment in technology to drive new products and manufacturing efficiency.
It's about continuing to invest in our capability to deliver advanced products, new technologies, and system level functionality, to drive value added solutions. And it's about growing our customers, our relation our customer relationships and our partnerships. You know, if you think about about Micron today, we are, really the most global a menu memory manufactured by far. We have great relationships with customers all over the world because we we don't compete with our customers when we're there. Technical resources close to And we really have the ability to drive, differentiated solutions and and deeper relationships to drive these value added solutions into the future.
So in 2015, 2016, it's about execution. We're gonna execute on our 20 nanometer DRAM RAF. You'll hear more of, from Scott and Mark about that. We've got 60 nanometer TLC NAND in the memory in the market today, on a component level, we need to ramp our solutions, our TLC SSDs based on that technology over the next couple of quarters and beyond. And we need to make sure we execute on what's a really exciting new technology, and differentiated from our competitors with our with our our floating gate 3 d NAND solutions.
We need to con we need to continue to create these new technologies like the 3 d cross point that we introduced a couple of weeks ago, and and Scott will talk about some of the new ones we have in the pipeline that we believe will also, position Micron very well for the future. And we need to continue to grow our, our system level capability, and you'll hear more about that from Mark Adams. And finally, this piece about investing in our customer relationships and our partnerships is very, very real. We have, we have great partnerships, many of you, many of you know about, some of them. Some of them are are not so visible yet to you.
But these these partnerships, I think, are critical, to, to growing in the complicated, markets and, and, and, in the markets that require the customer intimacy we believe in the future. So I'm gonna just stop, stop right here, turn it over to Mark Adams. But just leave you with the thought process that notwithstanding the challenging times right now. We have a we have a very strong plan. We have a lot of room to grow and improve.
And we're very, very focused on doing that. And you're gonna hear a lot more about that, over the next couple of hours, and they'll come back to take your questions. So let me turn it over to Mark Adams. Thanks, Mark. We probably should have done at the front, but for those of you in the room, we're very apologetic for the setting that we're in today.
So sorry about the views in the windows and hopefully not too much of a distraction. As Mark talked about, it's a very exciting time for our company when we think about the term opportunities. But I I wanted to start with, a little bit of a setup for how we see the market today. So no shock to anybody that we're dealing with some softness obviously in the PC market. Was a catalyst for some of the, the turbulence in the DRAM business.
When we think about broader market conditions, with Nate there. So I'm really good pockets of the end end end demand. And there's, you know, this this this PC driven dynamic in in primarily DRAM today. We're watching, obviously, the broader market. But it's also an important point to know that other markets doing quite well.
Mobile, networking, automotive, the server market, still doing pretty well, and that's an important point to distinguish today as we think about our business. On the NAND side, there's still tremendous growth. Said all along that NAND over the long term, because of this growth opportunity, property is a little bit more turbulent. But Notwithstanding that, it's exciting growth. And then we think we've demonstrated that already with the success we've had in Mobile NAND.
Well as our our growth in in, SSDs. So, yes, we've seen softness in PC, and it certainly had an impact on SEC pricing. But the message is that, there are other assets that are doing quite well. And I talked a little bit with some of you last night to think about this. We all feel like Micron, a sense of urgency, in a cycle.
You saw a marked slide in a cycle. And while I can't share with you anything about current quarter results or any of that stuff, Let's go back 90 days to where we reported margins that you saw. Well, if that's the new low, if that's the bottom of the truck, that's the new memory business. That's the new the memory business. So then you say, okay.
Great, Mark. Why? And I would suggest to you that the diversification aspect that Mark talked about in terms of end markets is the really primary driver for why the memory business is different today and will be more future. And I'd like to talk to that a little bit. If you went back to this meeting 5 years ago.
We may have shown a slide that showed an aspirational state of where we wanted end market demand to be. We may have shown you that all these markets that are now material Well, matter of fact, that's our business today. Networking is a big part of our business. Automotive is a big part of our business. Mobile is a huge part of our business.
Server's data center cloud is a huge part of our business. We're no longer a PC memory, PC DRAM company. And this diversification on the DRAM side is mirrored on the NAND side, even though NAND is a relatively newer technology segment. The products in NAND can you to diversify as well. You know, 10 years ago, 5 years ago, it was mostly MP3, USB, photography, today, solid state, you know, automotive, mobile, tremendous growth, and continued diversification.
And here's the interesting thing. We forget. We talk about DRAM and say, bummer, DRAM is only only gonna grow 25%. I'm not an economics expert, but 25% growth is 25% growth. I imagine there's some on the PC business, we're seeing 25% growth pretty freaking good.
So how should I think about our business? Meet DRAM and NAND and growth will continue to diversify. That is why we're so bullish on a long term opportunity for Micron. What I thought I would do because this chart is nice and it starts with the start what I thought I would do is I'd pick a couple of few cases of how this shift has happened at Micron and how it impacted our business. And by the way, go back and substantiate why, you know, margins that we reported 90 days ago, I think, you know, somewhere in the 30% range Right?
Why it's different? Let me show you why it's different rather than try to convince you with one slide. I don't know if there's been a technology that shifted our lifestyle more as consumers than mobile phones, okay? Let's just start with the fact that, I get less kid time because my kids are walking around with these devices playing games, basically 24 hours a day. And then think about all the video, all the photos I came in.
People were taking pictures of the Golden Gate Bridge this morning. This beautiful view. And then what do they do then? Upload these pictures through social media, remote access to other applications. Being able to check your home security system from a from a device like that.
How we communicate and how we all travel. Right, going back home, communicating over, applications that allow you to video chat with somebody. The level of application that's driving these devices to be so critical in everyday life. Go back in terms of product development and our engagement with our customers. None of that happens without memory.
And it's not a commodity memory that they just go by on the street. In mobile, I'm missing our portfolio. It's a huge asset. DRAM, how we integrate those products in the package solutions, different power consumptions, different performance, capabilities, all working with products that are designed for one customer, one customer's requirement one customer needs. So as we think about the mobile case study for us, we're not just selling a commodity product to a to a group of customers.
Each one of our customers is defining how might run and how we can work together and collaborate to provide unique solutions to them so that they can direct their products to a certain customer set. This segmentation in this product development initiative is why our mobile business unit, the top performing business unit might run. And this we couldn't say 3 years ago. As a matter of fact, it was our worst performing business unit 3 years ago. Today, our mobile business, because of this type of engagement model, is providing tremendous opportunity.
Again, portfolio mix capabilities beyond silicon, firmware controllers, packaging, provide us an amazing opportunity, and here's the thing with mobile. We're just starting these devices will become more and more integrated into how we live our lives on a daily basis. Another example, probably one that's more changing in our lives today. I hesitate to ask the questions I won't, but I took the Tesla plunge. I live here in the bay, and it's hard to miss these things around it.
Matter of fact, when I pulled up downstairs yesterday, said, well, you'd like us to charge your car while you're at your meeting. And, of course, I use my smartphone to make sure they charge my car. I don't know Zoom certificate. Domino, hopefully, jerking will approve the express state number. That's another story.
But you think about the automobile experience. Okay. First thing, my kid gets into this. Holy. Look at that screen.
The display on this thing is bigger than the MPC. I don't have my life. I'm in the application set in front of you. 1st of all, there's diagnostics. There's also energy consumption models.
There's all this information. There's navigation, there's media, of course, in in this specific model. Okay? I can go sit at the end then. Soon, we do not want to drive the the the option there.
They're smart enough to turn off the video functions. But the automotive experience today is incredible, and that's way on the early care. Companies like Tesla and other companies are innovating self driving cars and software that you're downloading to let you know that if you change I've never done this, but if you don't put your blinker, I'll come back and tell you to get back over in the other lane. So the information and and payment value of what's going on inside of automotive, the safety, all the sensors. It's incredible.
None of it happens to that number. You can't do it? Same thing for us. We have field labs. Field labs.
15 years ago, field map to add customers that define products that work with customers, not on, hey, sitting next quarter. If I choose down the road, I'd like this function. How can you help me get there? That's powerful. That's the shift in our business.
So when you think about the portfolio there, it's amazing. Again, products for see. Think about that. Package material, a NAND in a DRAM package with a specific controller, which firmware customized for that customer, again, a very unique opportunity for us, and we do as well. It's one of the reasons why we're the number one supplier of memory products to the automotive 3.
Perhaps one that's a little bit less consumer obvious, but I would argue is the most radical in terms of change right now is the value for us in terms of cloud and the enterprise. Fun. We do that for our lives and we transfer ourselves and we talk to the game and all that stuff. But the infrastructure to make that happen is probably in a more dynamic change than in the prior 2. First, when you think about compute, The capabilities today for a memory to play a role in changing how companies leverage their compute architecture year is unprecedented in terms of, computing.
And you think about the opportunity for us to react to things like big data, like in memory database applications, pattern recognition, to name a few opportunities for us in this segment in terms of computing. We now are dividing new architectures, and we're defining new products that, again, are not just silicon, but architecturally changed the way people do compute. Use compute power. When you think about even a product we're shipping today hybrid memory cube, where we redefine how close we can get to the processor and the packaging and the overall architecture provide the throughput that memory can help make compute more efficient and more powerful. That's a powerful story for us.
And going forward, beyond our leverage and our strength in this business, innovation around packaging, innovation around software and architectural improvements get us closer and drive performance and overall throughput, and working with the CPU and processing at power is a critical opportunity for us to take to leverage we think that's going to change the way computers are in the future. Beyond that, when you think about storage, You've kind of got 2 issues going here. You've got people just massively storing everything. I talked earlier about our behaviors, right? You know, uploading all these pictures to social media.
You go to Google or you go to YouTube, but I'm just I'm just amazed. You just look at that and there's a video on it on them. It's stored somewhere. And this this massive amount of storage bit increase in our industry, it's calling for new ways, new methodologies to store things. And the backdrop of all this is the advancement in solid state technology, and that is, I'll stop short of saying fully replacing mechanical, but certainly making a dramatic impact on how people are thinking about storage architectures for the year.
And the growth of the solid state market posting client enterprise, a mile early, it's just staggering. So not only is there gonna be more bits to be stored, They're gonna need more bits to be stored on our technology. You can't do it. You can't do these changes. You can't change computer architectures.
You can't change storage capabilities without memory. 1st couple weeks ago, we have announced a revolutionary products and 3d Crosspoint. So beyond our core technologies today, we think 3d Cross point can be a game changer, not just in today's applications on the high end of our spectrum of what we market to. But we think it actually redefines what what what's possible. We think for things I gain medical, the speed and the performance and the capabilities, a three d cross point will enable us to contribute to how people are able to diagnose certain diseases, how quickly we get people cures, And so when you think about how we're looking at our business, we're actually defining our products for the end markets.
And I think that's a big shift that you're going to continue to see in the numbers that it's not just one size fits all in memory. We're defining technology. For the long term and solve these problems that people are having today, and we're excited about that opportunity, the role that Mike Ryan can play in that. So you can see the big shift in our business. The business is expanding.
And it's also expanding to a different model, not just the scale of it, but it's expanding to a different model. The legacy memory business that we participated in for years, kind of the demand fulfillment model is becoming less and less a part of our business. What we're doing now is investing resources and capabilities to develop value added products with a whole host of different customers. Major OEMs, hyperscale customers. Different channel partners.
Mark referenced earlier strategic partners. How can we do things differently? How can we innovate together? We're having conversations with the end markets. You can imagine government and security being an issue.
I just gave an example about medical gaming. What's, you know, for consumer entertainment? The whole host of things that that we look at and the conversation is starting with the end market opportunity what do we need to do? How can we update? How can we work together?
What are the type of products you need to create and solve your requirements. That's a different discussion than 10 years ago. Let's shrink the dye and let's sell it to PT guys and put it in the hub and hope they call. At the different model. And so we're investing to provide these value add solutions.
And by the way, it's not just chip level. It's much more than that. It's a complex business that's beyond just silicon. How we stack products, how we package products, the firmware, the software that we add. And it's all different because of different requirements.
In phones, it's, you know, power's a big issue. And automotive power's a big issue, but industrial temp. They have to operate in certain weather conditions just have to be done. Networking provides another type of opportunity. So This is a different business, a fundamentally different business, and that's how we're reacting to it, and that's how we think about investment.
One of the ways we measure things and how we're doing on this turf and we'll continue to measure this way is how are we doing relative to our competition in utilizing our capacity, our capabilities, and placing our products in these high value segments. So that's nice to put these slides together and talk about tomorrow, what have you, but we need to be making sure that we're getting somewhere on this path than we are. One of the ways to measure this is how much are people paying us for a broad portfolio of products? And how good are we to put these products in the end markets that are attracted to us? And we're pretty confident that we're leading the past year.
We did more for our products by putting them in these high value applications. Both in NAND and DRAM. And we've talked about it before. Automotive is a very big strong segment for us. We do very well in networking.
We do very well in servers. Even in mobile, the continued growth and leadership there. When you think about mobile, for example, if you take out the fact that one of our competitors consumes a lot internally, with large provider of mobile memory solutions. So, the innovation and the capability to put our product into these higher value segments is our focus. We do sell commodity products still.
I'm not trying to suggest otherwise, but the mix of what we're of the company, and our mission at Micron is to take that capacity and put it in the best areas. Best high return areas The areas that actually we've developed core companies is in 2, drive value. Mark talked about investments and the message that we are going to continue to invest in the cycle because we believe so strongly in our future. And the long term success of the business. And this is really when we think about it, this is really the first time that Micron could get up here and say, we have the financial well resolved to do so, and we're going to do so.
Now in a capital intensive business returns don't happen overnight. That's just the nature of big ticket items. And there's there's a process that happens. Right? There's research and development being done, not research and development, then It's handed over to manufacturing and equipment put in the fabs.
And, of course, you're taking out older equipment at times and you're qualifying the product for your own internal qualification. Then you've got to bring customer qualifications in the picture. It takes some time. That's the nature of the business. We talked actually, Mark talked, a year ago at our event.
He said 2015, the slide was is an execution year. Of course, every year's execution, but his point was, that we have a lot going on and a lot of investments to make to position us for long term success. And the fact of the matter is we have line of sight on estimates. And the point of this chart is, yeah, 20 nanometer has been a big focus for us, and we know a lot of progress. And Scott's gonna get up and talk a little bit about that progress.
Even product mix, you know, low power, DDR3 to DDR4, it has an impact on our ability to grow as we transition the end state. On the NAND side, obviously, we've been very focused on, on our 3 d 3 d NAND, development and, and production. And beyond that, emerging technologies, you know, we just announced a pretty significant revolution in technology just 2 or 3 weeks ago. And that stuff we're doing in the background of everyday execution. So with all that investment, My message to you is we need to invest.
This opportunity doesn't come for free, and we're going to invest through the cycle to position us for continued long term success. And we want you to know that we're starting to see it. We're starting to see in our business. And we have line of sight in 2016. That you're going to see more of it because of the investments we're making in 2014 2015.
That's the nature of the business we're in. What does that mean typically. Non man and DRAM, these new technologies show up. We have capacity to do things. And the mix of products how the memory business is going to behave, something like 3 d Crosspoint will be a material part of our business.
I mean, in 2 years, that's going to be a major segment for us in terms of how we use our capacity And as we think about our business, as I said to you earlier, I believe that that's the new memory business, memory for specific applications that helps drive differentiating differentiation and innovation. It sounds on where we are from a big growth standpoint because I know that there's some of the traditionalists in the room would like to know, okay. Okay. Sure. What does that mean to The bottom line is with all the shifts in technology, all the mix issues going on and what have you.
15 was a year that our cycle line up to a little bit lower than the industry in terms of DRAM. And we expect to be back in line and grow at least with the industry in 2016, second half of twenty sixteen, exiting our fiscal year. We expect to be back in line as we see that. Those investments I've made, I've mentioned are gonna be putting us in a position to be back there, in addition to tremendous growth, in NAND. We fundamentally believe in the NAND business.
We know it's going to be more turbulent than DRAM, but we're in this for the long haul. We're investing for the long haul. Alright. So what I'd like to leave you with today is a few things. We believe in this business.
There are cycles, as I mentioned earlier, we're not calling the bottom of the cycle. That's not our objective today. But it feels like it feels like a cycle that we're in, went in a cycle that in 2008, if you had told me, hey. In the range of 30% gross margin in your business, it's going to be the you're going to be in the middle of the cycle. I'm going to take it then.
That's the new member business. And we think we're in great position to go forward. We're going to continue to invest and pursue high value segments. Because I think we've developed a core competency and we've demonstrated that and how we measure it to deliver on that and to add value in our products. Of course, we're going to manage our business on a daily basis to make sure we're making the right short term decisions.
And there's risk moving words and there's ROIs and we're happy. Of course, we'll do that. That's what we That's our job. But we can't lose sight of this great opportunity for us and Micron to play a role in the changing transformation of this business. We're going to invest to grow.
As I mentioned, capital intensive businesses, the returns don't happen overnight. We've invested a lot in 2015. There are investments we need to continue to make to take advantage of this market opportunity, but we're starting to see some of the, show up and you'll see throughout our fiscal year 'sixteen, you'll start to see more benefits of that investment and as we grow. With that all, We expect to drive relative operating profit expansion in given market conditions. What I mean by that is we think we're going to do better than our competitors, given our plan, and that's our aspiration to grow.
So, I'd like to stop now and ask Scott the board to come up. Scott's gonna need a little more detail on the technology, direction and where we are on some of the, recent efforts. Thanks, Martin. Let's see if this gift works. Okay.
Today, I'm gonna spend most of my time focused on our core technology, really the the current status some of the some of the next generation pieces in terms of our technical solutions to support our major customer requirements, across the memory space. When we look at, high performance memory, our DRAM scaling, we've we've talked about, I've talked about here many times before. Headwind in terms of process complexity, in terms of physical scaling limitations. And and and those are those are all through, at the same time, we have, line of sight to 3 technology nodes we're working on right now in R&D. I think I'll go through in some detail our 20 nanometer status right now.
We're really pleased with with where that technology is. It's on it's on plan. He's executing well. I'm really, I think, starting to hit on all cylinders coming out of out of the, post acquisition time. And and we're we're bullish on what you're going to see out of us in the DRAM technology area over the next several years.
On the NAND scaling side, we see a a fundamental path to scale vertical NAND technology for the next decade in manufacturing. We we continue to view NAND Technology as, the lowest cost per bit long term option for solid state storage. And we're we are very confident in our technology execution path and our manufacturing ramp. And, you know, you know, I'll I'll go through that in quite the detail today. In addition to our main core product technology areas right now, Mark, both Mark's reference the 3 d Crosspoint technology that we announced in San Francisco a couple of weeks ago.
That's a major innovation coming out of out of our our technology development teams. We have some other ones behind that. And I'm I'll talk a little bit about innovation at Micron in general and and why we have confidence to bring something as as new and and revolutionary as that alone. So starting off with with our DRAM technology. Fundamentally, we've we have we're in the middle of our 20 nanometer ramp right now.
The the technology is is, qualified in ramping in in both Hiroshima and in in, in the terror right now. The technology status in in both of those two facilities is actually relatively the same right now. Good good progress in both those both those paths and really executing to plan right now. I got I've I've got a couple of of, graphs on this particular slide to to give you an indication of where our 20 nanometer technology plan is right now. At the at the top, showing that we expect our our bit output to on on 20 nanometer and below technology, to be more than half of our bits produced, really, by the end of this calendar year.
And you can see the the plot by fiscal year, on this slide here. And we're on track to do that right now. Now how the 2 how the 2 fabs do that transition is is somewhat product dependent depending on which products we're displacing. But the net of all of our bids produced will be greater than 50% by the end of the calendar year. On the bottom graph on this slide is just a representation of where this technology is right now relative to our yield ramp, through the similar phase, at our 25 millimeter node.
And I I think this is representative of a couple things. Post post the merger of the technology teams, we spent quite a bit of time understanding what we needed to do in terms of manufacturing capability, recognizing some of those headwinds in terms of process and difficulty in ramping technology that faces everyone in the DRAM industry. And we and we put a lot of effort into understanding how we're going to continue to improve in terms of early technology introduction and ramp capability. And I think the data right now for for our 20 nanometer relative to 25 is is, a representation of progress from the CRAM technology team, over the past over the past year. Our 1 X Technology node is also now, under development in, Rochemont.
And and making good progress there. We started that technology now no doubt in Boise and and, and now I have the collective team working on it in Hiroshima. I'm making good progress. Our one X nanometer technology really is going to be starting a ramp in the second half of calendar 'sixteen. It's really a volume story for us in 2017.
One of the things I wanted to also talk about say relative year end technology efforts are, as as many of you know, we we have a a, a a collective team of people we put together out of Alpida and Micron post the acquisition. I think that team is really coming on. We have a we have a much stronger, resource base than we've had in many years on our DRAM technology. And we put a great deal of focus, and that that the innovation we're starting to see coming out of that collective team, is is, I think, very impressive. And I think you'll continue to see, a growing contribution in our DRAM business from the momentum that that team is picking up over time.
To the 3 d NAND space, just as a as a reminder, our our leading identity product on 3 d NAND are a 32 tier, 256 gigabyte MLC product, and a 384 gigabyte PLC product. This this technology is still the highest density, technology of any, announced or, currently in production. Technology, whether it's planer or 3d, in the NAND space. Especially the 384 gigabit TLC So this technology is, we think, positioned for the right entry point into, 3 d NAND technology into volume manufacturing. And we think it comes in at a good cost point, and we're very pleased with where the progress is on this technology.
Like DRAM and maybe even more so, from the grounds up on this technology, we recognized it as as, extremely difficult and and potentially disruptive technology that is is is probably the biggest shift in the memory business in, you know, in decades in how memory is actually constructed, fundamentally different. Recognizing those challenges, I think we put extra focus into really understanding where the tech technology needed to be from a manufacturing point as we put it in position to ramp. And I think we've had some actually pretty amazing results in terms of early, early success on our RAM capability, for 3 man. A couple of years ago, if if I would have, projected where I thought we would be relative to our Planner NAND performance as starting the technology ramp, we have we have really, exceeded any expectations relative to how this technology has come And I think it's a combination of of that early diligence and the development process, and some of the technical choices we made relative to our 3 d man technology that have enabled our our yield ramp actually on 3 d NAND technology to be ahead of what we've historically done on our planer nodes.
So we're we're very proud of that right now. We're we're in the process of ramping up TLC products for for mobile, for storage. And and I think have a have a very solid path to continue, a density leadership position, cost leadership position relative to our 3 d man technology as it ramps up. As a result of the early success on our on our 3 d NAND, we're actually now looking at pulling in our prior expectation of, that that we had discussed of, having our bits. Previously, we said we were going to have our bits on 3 d NAND seed, our bits on planterdam, in in calendar year 17.
We're actually now, projecting that it will be before the end of calendar year 16 that we'll be able to have more bits boost on on 3 d NAND than on planar NAND. So, overall, very positive feeling, great execution by the team on this technology. So the next big thing for us on on 3 d NAND are really around continuing to execute this into maturity, in manufacturing in terms of yield and ramp level And then moving on, we have good good results on our next generation right now, that's in development phase. And is is partially running in our theme for manufacturing fab right now also. And then really getting getting volume up on our 3 d man technology.
The picture on this particular slide, showing, really the working day and night right now to get this manufacturing fab to to ramp through Unan up in Singapore. And the, the overall team is very focused on getting 1st wafers out by the summer of 2016. So a lot of, a lot of effort Something I wanted to do today is talk a little bit more. We haven't shared much detail on our technology, intentionally since since we think it is you know, a competitive advantage. Wanted to talk a little bit more about some of the, basics of Micron's technology relative to at least the the currently announced technology from our competitors, and talk a little bit about why we did this.
And the main reason is at a at a fundamental level, we think that, our our technology is gonna allow this rapid pace in terms of ramping the technology and maturity and and provide some advantage there. When we started out looking, and I promise I won't get too technical here. When we started out with this technology, one of the basic concepts for us was take the fundamental cell technology out of the critical path by picking a technology that allowed us to fall back on, you know, decades of reliability improvement and physical understanding and pick that physical cell as the basis and face the other challenges in terms of this new complicated memory architecture with a known base of a a solid cell technology. It's a it's kind of a core core choice. There's other ways to do it and and those ways will have other challenges and and other advantages.
In the end, we think the combination of this cell technology And the manufacturing capability focus we put early in the development cycle are are really gonna be, advantages to us as we as we go into this bond ramp. So we're feeling very good about this. Okay. Now I'm gonna I'm gonna change base here a little bit and and talk about innovation in Micron in general, and how that's leading to 3 d Crosspoint, and and some of the other new technology areas that, that we are thinking are very important going into the future. And one of the things that I wanted to do today is is really step back and say, you know, why why do we have confidence that we can take something like 3 d cross point that that is very revolutionary and and drive that into mainstream, memory technology.
And, you know, what what are some of the things that give us confidence that that we can go on on something that is, so dramatic as that. And I, you know, I'm looking back across, innovation in Micron over over multiple years, really, We've we've faced several different points in time where we put major focus on programs that that actually weren't obvious that they, would work. And I think, when we started 3 across point, it was absolutely in that situation. But looking back over time, many of the innovations of Micron, excellent in that same kind of category. Something like, 6th square architecture in in DRAM, which ultimately, of course, became the mainstream cost reduction path for for the the DRAM business across our competitors.
But when we started working on that, it wasn't obvious, and it was, a pretty major change for the DRAM industry. Picking a, you know, a a couple others in that same category, pitch multiplication, which we which is the lithography patterning methodology that we brought in on our 50 nanometer NAND really was was how we got in the NAND business was with that core technology and bringing it in first. The rest of course, the NAND industry followed that. And it's also gone across the whole semiconductor industry now. Those kind of those kind of innovations, and execution on those has given us confidence that when we when we face something like 3 d Crosspoint or even vertical name, that we have the confidence to push it forward.
So if we look at our recent technology announcements, we talked about in March, our 3 d NAND, and I gave you a summary on that already, you know, big, big technology announcements since the last, since the winter analyst meeting. Then we go to the announcement from weeks ago on 3 d Crosspoint, even bigger game changing technology, multiple, multiple years of of work, culminating in in the technologies, I think, is is very unique and, also, very, very difficult to, duplicate. So give a very little technical detail, related to three d crosspoints. I wanted to expand on it a bit just so you have a little more of an idea about what's technology is and, also why why we think it is such a big breakthrough to have put it together. If you look at, the basic pieces of of 3 d cross point, it's it's the architecture, the integration.
It's the it's the memory cell itself, and it's the switch. Each of those three things have been major sources of industry and academic resource over multiple years. And there are if you take something like the memory cell itself, there is an endless possibility of elements. This is this is one of the the things we use internally sometimes to to talk about. How many different ways you can build an an ROA memory cell.
It's almost every element on the periodic table that either a startup, a university researcher, or someone in the industry has worked on. And we we usually cross off only the ones that are radioactive or, tend to float away before you can get ahold of them and and stick them in a material set. But other than those, almost every element on periodic cable is is capable of building an RN memory cell. It's a it's a great job security for material scientists. And it's a a source of almost endless startup companies and different things that that that can bring out just that on rent cell.
Similar kind of situation for the switch. And then when you look at the integrations of this, there's many ways you can integrate this technology. Even, I think yesterday or the day before, there was a a seminar at the Flash Memory Summit talking about, the cost structure. This is probably awful because you have have multiple quadruple patterning levels or multiple EV with double patterning. And and if you actually required that, this number wouldn't be very interesting.
That's that's agreed. But the novelty of this technology is in how you integrate it in how you pick these materials, complicated materials, and put them together, all of them, along with an integration concept. And you make something work, actually work, in production that has these properties. Crosspoint Memory is a decade old idea. It's an aspiration of the industry for years.
That's not the new idea. How does how to build something, putting unique materials together, and integrate it in a way that provides these properties at a cost effective point, that's that's the newness to this. And we're very proud of this technology, obviously. When we look at some discussion of where does this technology go, we think it has actually a a broad range of uses and in the different big business categories, may make use of different aspects of the technology. So if we look at at something like a a mobile space, the things that are important there may specifically be, how do I get faster non ball memory.
Or how do I make use in the mobile space of the fact that it is nonvolatile? And I don't have to I don't have to refresh it. I don't have a active refresh and standby. In mobile, you take advantage of one subset of the properties of this new memory. When you look at client, there's there are obvious and Mark discussed some of the some some of these up previously, but, there's there's some obvious ones around, putting a high performance cache of of some kind of memory in front of the cheapest memory you have possible in order to build a a higher performance SSC that is, makes use of TLC or TLC NAND.
On the enterprise side, there's an obvious application, taking advantage of almost all of the good properties of the memory, with the endurance, speed, and and the pure bandwidth. So I think I think there's there's some obvious applications across big spaces. And as we mentioned in San Francisco a few weeks ago, one of the things we're even more excited about is now that this kind of memory has become available, where do the system people take it, and what are the new applications that this expands into? Now beyond beyond this, we still have focus on multiple other new memory technology Obviously, 3 d cost point is a multiyear project. It is it is now the bar, for memory technology and, new memory technology.
And and we have to look farther out in the future, and it'll it'll be a ways now before something actually comes along that, has new properties that provides an additional advantage. And our focus on, especially on new memory technology relative to other materials for resistive memories or, or spin torque, which is on this slide, are more around the 2 extremes. So We're interested in developing memory for the lowest cost and something to compete compete with NAND long term, which is complicated and as as I mentioned at the beginning, and the highest end, which is the highest memory performance possible, with the adder of non billable volatility. So our long term research now is focused, kind of on the extremes. And we have a a significant effort in background still on that.
So certainly a three d cross point is not the end, but it is it's a major milestone for us, and, and we're excited about the future options too. So to finish up, just touch on the priorities for the next year and and where where things are and kind of restate a couple things. On DRAM. Really excited about the positive momentum. 20 nanometers on track right now.
And we're we're confident actually that you'll continue to see better and better things out out of the technology organization working on DRAM on Micron over the next couple of years. On 3 d NAND ahead of schedule, really pleased with the progress and pulling in the the, crossover on the technology between 3 d 2 d to the end of calendar year 2016. Free cost point over the next year is really going to be about maturing the technology, working closely with customers and looking at applications to to ramp into in calendar year 2016 in an early stage. And then and then finally, we didn't talk about it much today. But we're still very focused on package technology and how we drive differentiation, with 3 d packaging, and custom mobile packaging, to to add value to our different, customer applications.
So, those are our big focuses for the next year, and and below is, in the roadmap of different, nodes and new memory nodes. So thank you, and I'll turn it over to Ernie. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for Sorry.
Wrong direction. Thanks for joining us today. My talk is gonna cover 3 basic areas. First, give you a quick free cap of some of our activities in the capital management area, our dilution management, our areas of investment, move into something that you're all keenly interested in, which is discussion of how we view 2016 gross CapEx, but also how we look at CapEx on a normalized basis, because we think that some of the that everyone has talked about today are causing us to look to CapEx in a bit of a different way as we go forward. And then finally, also talk about how some of the changes to the business going to impact the guidance that we provide you on an ongoing basis that we think will more fully describe the business and also frankly make things a little bit simpler, for you.
So diving into each of these areas. This is a capital allocation strategy of the company. No big surprise here. Our first priority are always investing in the business, whether that be for the ongoing development of the core businesses of the company, manufacturing efficiency, technology advancement, but also for the development of value added solutions and ways of addressing some of these markets, that Mark Adams spoke about earlier today, which require ever more custom sort of application solutions and closeness with the customer And then finally, and really importantly, over the last couple of years, a renewed focus on a return of capital to shareholders and managing dilution associated with the company's capital structure. And we'll talk specifically more about that here in the next couple of slides.
So this does a nice job. The time period here is 2011 through 2015 fiscal q 3, so a 5 year period. The company has invested about $5,200,000,000 cumulatively and R and D activities in 11.6 or so. In CapEx, all of these, designed to continue the advancement of our core technologies as well as developing those new solutions like 3 d Crosspoint, things like SSDs, things like nonvolatile hybrid memory cubes. Those are all part of what that investment is buying for.
Us and buying for you. We've also spent about $3,800,000,000, managing dilution and returning cash to shareholders. Couple of $100,000,000 of that is in direct share repurchase and the other $3,600,000,000 has been our activities around the, convert exchange that we've had. And the growth of the company over this time has also really allowed us to maintain the strength and flexibility, in our balance sheet. And I'd like to spend a minute on the next five sort of demonstrating that to you conclusively.
And for purposes of clarity, this slide actually has Q4, fiscal Q4 of our and 15 year included at either the midpoint of our guidance or where we don't guide, some street estimates. So no doubt combination of organic and acquisitive activity, the company's revenue has grown, doubled in fact, so taker of about 16%. But that really is sort the start of the story. What that revenue growth has enabled is a growth in cash from operations at about 50% higher than the K of the revenue growth. So you can see that cash from ops has increased over that same time period from about 28% of overall revenue up to about 32%.
And, also, it's enabled that scale us to reduce our overall CapEx, intensity from about revenue down into the 23% range. And the most profound difference you see here is in free cash flow, going from a slight negative back in that 2011 timeframe to a positive north of a $1,000,000,000, as we think about 2015. So clearly, a scale has benefits, and those benefits are multiplied as we sort work our way down through the, the P and L. During this time, we also established this return of capital framework. This is not new, so it's exactly the same as you've seen in the past.
We have established a targeted capital structure. I'll talk more about that in an upcoming slide. We've talked about our dilution management activities, and we have a capital return policy that we now review on an annualized basis and make adjustments for as the business requirements dictate that. I would call your attention to, one specific number on this slide, which is our activities through 2015 at about 70, 79 percent of our free cash flow. That is a Q3 number.
We will be providing you an update on that here, as we exit presentation and, you know, to to preempt a little bit, the number looks a lot more, like our prior year number and maybe even a little bit, maybe even a little bit higher. So dilution management, it's worth spending a minute on this topic. There has been tremendous progress made in this area. Net net And this includes the benefit of the cap call. So it's all in what we've done with respect to, the convert retirements, the share repurchases, and the benefit of the cap call over a pretty broad range of prices, we have essentially reduced the outstanding share count by about a 141,000,000 shares and, a relatively 12%.
And if you really go back, one of the things I'm always interested in doing is going back and looking at history, it's the lowest net share count in a couple of years. So it's really been effective in helping manage the dilution and ensuring that the company does its part in returning capital to to shareholders. So quick summary of the past financial performance, revenues expanded scale helps. Scale matters a lot. In fact, we are now serving a diversified market with segments customers that are far beyond anything that we've imagined in the past.
That has allowed us to strengthen our balance sheet. It has allowed us to make the necessary investments in R And D And Capital and will allow us to do that on a going forward basis as we're going to talk about here just a minute, and enabled us to make significant progress relative to capital return and managing the dilution associated with being a public company. So this is exactly the same chart that you saw a little earlier today, and investing in this sort of productive capacity out put this bit growth, is what largely informs our capital plan for fiscal year 16. However, there are some other things in fiscal 16, that are pretty unique occur maybe once a decade or a little bit more or a little bit less pending on things. And that is a fab expansion in Singapore that you saw on Scott's slide.
We also plan to do a a facility in on the Boise campus to expand the R and D fab. And in addition, you've heard us talk about now 3 d XPoint for a bit of time. This morning, there's an investment in the CapEx plan for next year related to that that unlike some of our normal technology progressions, has a bit of a long gestation period. So it's a little different than doing the next generation of NAND, the next generation of DRAM. This is a brand new technology albeit based on, some ideas that are maybe a a lot older than that, but it takes a little bit longer gestation time.
So there are those unique elements combined with, the company's, if you will, ongoing plan. And as we look at that, that gives us a CapEx number for next year on a gross basis, somewhere in the mid to upper 5,000,000,000 range. But I would ask you to bear with me because just as there have been some changes in the business, there's some changes into how we think about, total CapEx. And, we also will go into some more detail that here in just a minute. So this is a historic breakdown, that you have seen before from us.
So starting at the bottom, about 20 to 30% of our overall spend will be on DRAM that is for 20 nanometer and beyond, ramping of that technology pretty straightforward. The nonvolatile memory category and notice it's called non volatile now and not just NAND. And the reason for that is, that we've actually seen a movement of that cost point CapEx from that top category, which is where you saw it last year into that nonvolatile category. So things get born up there and grow into their adolescence in the middle that category or down below. So it's real, real tangible proof that things actually move down between the categories here.
So that's going to be somewhere between 40% 50% of our overall CapEx. And remember, I said there were some extraordinary items associated with this facility's investments and associated with 3 d XPoint, roughly 25% to 40% of that nonvolatile category relates to investments in those areas. So the remainder of that, which would be somewhere in the range of 60 to 75%. This is for things like, the advancement of, 3 d NAND, TLC and, subsequent sort of normal technology progress that we would, we would expect on an ongoing basis. And finally, at the top in that technology and product enablement category, so another 20 to 30% of our overall CapEx.
That is where you see the R and D facility Boise as a part of that, as a part of that CapEx. And then some of the things that, Scott talked about in terms of leading edge activity that he and his team are working on whether it be for emerging memory, controller capabilities or other, other productization activities. So I've now used words like net and normalized and how different 2016 looks compared to the past, and I'm gonna spend some time walking through that with you. So, starting with our mid-five percent to upper $5,000,000,000 range, we have an extraordinary level of by third parties in our CapEx profile for next year. So we have somewhere between a 500,000,000 to as much as, almost a $1,000,000,000 coming to us directly in support of this CapEx.
Activity. And so as we look at sort of a micron level of CapEx, it's somewhere in the realm of that $5,000,000,000 range. And as we think about these once a decade investments in things like facilities, and think about how to help you think about our CapEx on a going forward basis. We come up with this normalized CapEx level, which is somewhere in that $4,000,000,000 range. Now make no mistake about it.
Next year is going to be high It's going to be about 5,000,000,000 plus all those other contributions we expect. But on an ongoing basis, we would not expect that level of spending the need to continue in order to support the ongoing ramps, ramp of our business. So, hopefully, that adds some clarity, gives you some perspective because the world we're looking at on a going forward basis, frankly, is a little different than the way it's been in the past given some of the partnerships and the increasingly diverse nature of, the world in which we're, which we're living. That actually also has a big impact on how we got. I've been through, my first earnings call prep And the company has historically provided a lot of data on a cost per bit basis, which was completely relevant back in the days when we were doing providing commodity bits.
And our bits looked like someone else's bits, and, you know, it was an easy compare. But increasingly, what we are providing when we're providing these average cost per bits is a broad average across a range of product portfolio decisions it's a it's a set of decisions about what short term output we make versus building longer term strength of our business. And it also reflects increasingly you have to factor into that average that we provide, the various partner arrangements that we have. So in essence, we boil all that complexity of our business down into a cost per bit metric. And the reality is it's sort of like averaging the weight of an elephant in a mouse.
I can give you that precise number I can put both of them on a scale and tell you what the average is. But at the end of the day, I'm not really describing either one of those things. And so as we think about how best inform you about our business on a going forward basis, we're going to move to a much more simplified and streamlined set of guidance. So we expect on a going forward basis, to give you total company non GAAP revenue, gross margin, operating expense, operating income, and EPS. Now I would tell you that that's a guidance statement as we describe our business on our quarterly calls.
So as we're private the quarter just completed, we're obviously gonna put more color around that. We're gonna give you significantly the same information that we provide today in a historical context because we do think that's helpful in letting you know how we're making progress in our business and and what's going on. But on a going forward basis, rather than going through this rather torturous exercise of taking all of that complexity and boiling it down into some cost per bit metric, for a guidance basis. We're just gonna give you at the end of the day what you're interested in understanding from us, which is where are we gonna deliver in terms of earnings? And what are we delivering in terms of overall revenue growth as well as the margin profile of the company?
So I told you a little early. We're gonna come back and talk about our capital management framework. Here it is. Again, there's no big changes there. Still tuning, in the context of that, we have have a hurdle for our return on investment to be, greater than our cost of capital currently cost of capital is right around 10%.
We continue to target a cash balance. It's about 12 months essentially of our operating expenses plus the short term debt maturities and interest. We're continuing to operate to this leverage ratio of GAAP debt to EBITDA of less than 1a half. And CapEx to sales somewhere in the 20 to 25 percent range. So no, no changes there.
We will continue to update that as it's appropriate. So key takeaways, driving long term returns with the ability to allocate and focus our capital decisions appropriately. We're going to maintain a strong balance sheet. We're a growing business with lots of opportunity And our job as finance folks, among other things, is to make sure the company has the wherewithal to support and to deliver that growth And, we are aligning our communications to be reflective and appropriate of the company that we are today, which increasingly diverse, increasingly customized in terms of the products and solutions that we're delivering to our customers, and, we'll make sure that we both inform you, of what we're doing. But at the same time, try to be as simple as possible in helping predict our financial performance.
And then I mentioned earlier, we'd provide you a little bit of an update to our activity so far in fiscal quarter 4. We've actually spent about $630,000,000 so far in fiscal quarter 4, with respect to and capital return activities will provide a further update on that, obviously, at the quarter end, but in case we're keeping score, that takes up 79% from the prior slide. And moves it a little north of 100%. And we'll get the final tally here when we do our upcoming call. So with that, I'm going to turn it back over to Mark for his closing comments.
All right. Thanks Ernie. I'm going to wrap up very quickly here. And then invite everyone back up to to take, questions for a for a little while. Obviously, in summary, we, we like this business.
We think it's a much better business than it used to be. We think it's worth investing in, and we like the cards we're playing with. We like our technology position. We like our, our, our, our global nature and the customer and partner relationships we have, and, we like some of the, new products we're bringing in the market. So we feel, good about where the company sits, notwithstanding some the short term, market challenges that we're we're encountering.
We're gonna continue to focus on diversification. We're gonna continue to focus customer relationships, and we're gonna continue to deliver innovative new products, to the marketplace. And we've got, you know,
some some
clear execution objectives for the next 18 months. They revolve around the the 20 nanometer deployment. As we mentioned, by fiscal Q3. You'll see a majority of our bits at 20 nanometer or below. We've got some good technologies coming behind that.
You should see, an acceleration relative to what we've talked about previously relative to our 3 d NAND ramps. And, you will see as, as Ernie said, the realization of some of the technology developments that we've engaged in over the last couple of years starting to bring those new products into the marketplace in 2016. We continue to generate strong operating cash flow. We expect to make a good progress on our manufacturing efficiency and continue to close the gap relative to our deployed technology in the marketplace. And we think over time, all of that makes Micron a great place to invest, over the long haul.
And we can continue to do that. Let me, stop and invite everybody, up, Mark, Scott Ernie, and, then maybe we can we're gonna pass mics for questions. Let me let me the the one question I got in the back of the room, I think I would wanna just address, first because I know everyone in the room is is probably interested in. It has to do with what what are some of the cost headwinds, that Micron has encountered, you know, bring a little bit more clarity to the cost headwinds we've encountered here over the last 6 months, in, in terms of our relative performance on a cost per bid basis, because I think many people expected, as, as, well, we move through the year, we would generate a a a larger cost reductions than we've actually done. There's a lot of complexity to our businesses.
To send. There are a lot of moving pieces around product mix and and, technology mix, etcetera, etcetera. But let me let me start with the with the Unotero relationship, I think that's a a significant one that maybe people haven't fully digested. When when we look at our DRAM product portfolio, about 40% of that is coming from from Intrarium. And historically, and through the rest of this calendar year, We purchased that product from Innopera to market minus, and that minus is EBITDA dependent.
So as the market gets weaker, the discount to market, for Micron decreases, and then we sell that product out of the marketplace at a later point in time. There's a headwind there, associated with the inotero supply on 40% of our output that is significant. When you layer on top of that, the mix adjustments we've made. And these are adjustments we make because we believe that they're in the long term best interest of the company, to be in these broader segments and to be in these segments over time deliver more value. But as we move product, from a from a high margin commoditized PC segment into the mobile segment, there's a headwind associated, with that move just by virtue of the fact that those ASPs were lower in that time frame.
There's a similar headwind. When you think about, what happens as you move from DDR3 production to DDR4 production in in ensuring that you have the right sockets for future development. There's another headwind that you encounter as you move the mobile products from LPDDR3 into PDDR4 because the nice sizes are bigger and the yields are lower on these new technologies. So those are some of the big, components. What I would tell you is that, you know, as we as we look to the future, we have, significant as Mark and Scott talked about, we have, you know, significant ability to grow our bit density in manufacturing.
And then over time, that's just going to drive Now they won't be as big as historically you would expect from that, amount of bit growth for wafer. Because we're coming from a low depreciation base, but you will see it in a significant way as we move through 2016. And it will have a profound ramifications in overall profitability and cash flow of the company. So why don't you guys all come up here and, let's just open it up for the room. I'm back here.
Yeah. Thanks a lot.
And, thanks for the presentations. Can you expand a little bit more about, you know, the new the new memory, 3 d Cross point and the Intel relationship. I mean, how how is that going to exactly play out? Also, I mean, is there a timeline there? Because you're talking about it's a game changing technology, but, are you very pending on Intel here, is it your are you driving a horse here?
I mean, any any expansion on that?
So let me, let me say a few things. And then if Mark or or I wanna jump in, that'll be that'll be great too. You know, Intel is a is a very good memory partner, for Micron. And as these guys talked about, anytime you bring something that's radically new to the marketplace and the sockets have to develop architecture traffic developed. Deployment is not overnight in terms of market acceptance.
But having a partner like Intel actually is is very advantageous for something like this because they they are key enablers of those new architectures. So with Intel is strong. It will be strong into the future. We will collaborate with them in terms of, enabling their supplier product in the marketplace, and we will keep with them in the market, much as we do in NAND. We sell them NAND today, out of our manufacturing facilities, some of which, they own some of the NAND, and some that we we sell to them on a supply agreement basis, based on long term, agreement.
We will have a similar relationship, with this 3 d cost point memory But we will also be developing our own sockets for our own applications in areas that are maybe of less interest, to Intel and, in some cases, in competition with Intel. In terms of, you know, how quickly will this market grow and how quickly will become significant, you know, I think that is That is hard to know exactly today, but it it could easily be, you know, in the 2018 timeframe, could easily be of the same order of magnitude Vwin Businesses in that timeframe. So maybe not the same size, maybe half the size in 2018, but it will be a significant, additive revenue stream, to Micron at the time. Did anybody wanna add anything up?
Just as a follow-up here, since close to a billion of fiscal year 16 in FX is going to come from the partner. How should we think about the, NAND margin profile, especially the wafers coming out of Singapore going to your, Intel Partnership. Because based on existing setup, you ship based on the Yeah.
So we, well, we we sell them some product at cost because they own that capacity in the joint venture. And then we sell them some product based on commercially negotiated supply agreements. And those supply agreements are more like, you know, a law term customer relationships. They're they're more of a much, you know, a longer term forward sale of that product. And we anticipate we will have, those in place, for our part?
I mean, then the basis, isn't that margin accretive to your NAND business because more wafers coming out of Singapore? Or should we assume that there there won't be a change in margin profile for this specific customer.
Well, the margin, the margin profile depends on the market supply and demand. We've said many, many times, we don't, you know, we don't very hard for us to predict exact over a short time frame exactly, you know, what the NAND margin is gonna be. And certainly wouldn't try and forecast that. We think over the long haul, it'll be it'll be very, rewarding business for us. Relative to the product that we might sell to a partner on a long term contract relationship.
Obviously, we're gonna think hard about what is the trade off between risk and return and and strike commercial relationships that make sense to us.
And then one follow-up for Ernie. Thanks for all the color on CapEx, but there's not a, also, there's not a confusion on the equipment portion. If you were to look at fiscal year 16 versus 15. How should we think about the equivalent portion of the CapEx? And as a follow-up to that, how does the DNA change, which would have an impact on March
Well, if if you look at the equipment portion, you take out some of the commentary I made about facilities. I think you'll end up getting to a point where you're saying it's not that different. We're not gonna give you a specific number around that, but, you know, certainly, we've quantified before in general terms the cost of some of these new facility's expansion. And we've also, talked a little bit about how there is an inclusion for, 3 d Cross point there. So in terms of depreciation and amortization, obviously, it's going to trend a bit up, over time, to vent specifically on the timing of some of these capital investments, which we're still continuing to work.
And you know, we'll likely provide more color on that here on our upcoming call.
Quick question on the 3 d LAN flash. So you're using floating gate. I think your competitors are using a Charge technology, does that give you an advantage in terms of ramp timing and also how does the performance compare specifically the widening speed relative to 3 d NAND from the competition.
You wanna take that one, Scott? So relative to the timing of the ramp, I think back to kinda where I was discussing previously, we we think by by basing our cell tech, the fundamental cell technology, on a on a known entity, and taking that out of the a path. So we we think that is a a piece that helps us ramp faster, and we think that's playing out in terms of our our yield performance, so far. And so I think that's a that's a net positive for us in terms of that. In terms of, product performance, We think that, largely the the technology is going to, look similar in the end applications, and there's gonna be some cases where, maybe, there's there's some advantage for floating gate in some cases where there's some some advantage for truck strap, but the net of the whole thing is that the the, technology won't look that much different once it's in a solid state drive.
Let me yeah. Let me let me found on that just a little bit. Now a lot of the a lot of the performance characteristics are going to be arc dependent on on component architecture decisions and system architecture decisions that we make as opposed to the underlying cell technology. So, yes, you can imagine in some circumstances, you might have a a right speed decrement for floating detail. But, oh, when you get to the end customer, a lot of it's going to depend on, how did you architect the chip and how did you architect the system in terms of the performance they will actually see, from these devices.
We strongly believe that we're going to see a lot less hiccups, and our customers will see a lot less hiccups as we ramp this product in the volume manufacturing because of because of the much greater understanding of all the, fundamental yield mechanisms and reliability back. That's a smooth one. Yeah. All the time. Thanks a lot.
Actually, I had 2.
So first of all, question on DDR4,
ASP, you know, the DDR4 DDR3, gap right there's maybe a 15% premium, currently for DDR4. But of course, your costs are higher than that. So that's why that's a you know, pinch right now on margins. But can you talk about, the risk that the premium that DDR4 gets in the market goes away by the time that you're able to make up the the, the the cost delta between the DART3 and DTO4?
So so, you know, premium is always go away over time because the what what you get to the end of life and there's a scarcity. So it's the the pricing ends up being supply and demand driven. So we would anticipate that over time, you may actually get a, you may start to see a premium for DDR3, right? It's just a matter of of which of these products are in oversupplying or under spline. You are correct.
That in the marketplace today, DVR4 is a headwind for us. We think that is very quickly behind us. We grant the 20 nanometer on.
Okay. And then just one more. You you talked about
dealer and Big Go to CAGR being 20 to
30% between fiscal 15 and fiscal 17.
There's a slide that sort of suggested that it's gonna be well above that
in fiscal 16, and then it's gonna be well below that in fiscal 17. So does that imply something like 35% to 40% in fiscal 'sixteen and then something like maybe 10% to 15% in fiscal 'seventeen did I No.
We tried to give you we tried to give you a curve that would directionally show you what that looks like. And actually, there's an acceleration as we move through time.
Hi. Thanks for the indication. Maybe given the headwind we are seeing in the DRAM pricing, could you remind us how to think about the entire benefit which shows up calendar 2016.
Yep. Yep. Okay. It's it's, obviously, it's a complicated, set of parameters that that drive exactly what that relationship looks like because you have you have market minus moving to margin sharing. You have mix changes, going on, you have technology changes going on, and all of those have an impact.
But having said that, you know, when we talked to you, back in, I think it was February, we talked in terms of, you know, what would the change be when that new agreement goes into place and when it starts to ripple through our financials. And we said, it's in the high single digit kind of margin improvement on, on the inventory output as that change happens. We still believe it'll be in the mid to high single digit range notwithstanding what's going on with the ASPs in the meantime because, obviously, we've had we've had, margin headwinds under the existing agreement in that time So the the the Delta benefit, you know, assuming that there's not some, ongoing class in in pricing, well, we still think that that's a good placeholder, for the Delta benefit. If we see more price erosion and we're currently anticipating, it'll be a little bit less. We see, you know, flat pricing, it'll be a little bit Yeah.
Just just a follow-up to, on the ROIC on the NAND business. So you kind of talked about 40 to 50 percent CapEx on NAND. The margins in NAND has been quite limited. So if you look at ROIC, it's below. Right?
So how when do you think Mikeon gets you know, you get paid for all the investments you're doing in the Navios.
We don't know. Yeah. Very hard, very hard to predict that quarter to quarter. You know, I think there I think there are indications that that, that as we move through 2016, we may we may have very robust demand for NAND, but trying to time exactly what that is like relative to supply, as you know, is is is difficult. I'm not gonna take stab at it today.
It's something that you've been trying to answer fundamentally. It's been one comment really just fundamentally though, Monica. And in March's response notwithstanding, we still believe that the things we've been communicating to you are on track to drive competitive relative better performance. Things like mobile, things like, solid state development controllers, things like, 3d, and things like TLC and Plan we think the combination on a relative basis, notwithstanding hard to predict pricing, a lot of stuff, we're still, very bullish on our performance and what we're going in.
Thanks. Thanks very much. David Longwell Fargo. Two two things. First, 3 d NAND floating date versus Charge Hat.
It's explained the benefits of your choice. But can you give us some idea about why some of the other companies chose to go with Chargebee. Are there some perceived benefits? Is there something easier about doing that?
Yeah. And Scott can comment more. I think fundamentally, it's a little bit easier. Build a charge trap down a long sidewall than it is a slightly more complicated structure, that we have with floating gate. So I think you may see over time others evolve, but they gain more confidence in their in their ability to execute, or they as they realize that there's an existence proof out there.
Okay, great. And on the 3 d crosspoints, how many layers of metal will your initial process have. Can you give us some idea about why it starts out as more expensive than NAND? Is it because you've got more metal layers? Is it a bigger cell?
Is it more expensive to deposit exhaust see everything.
No. No. It's yeah. We're not gonna we're not gonna tell you how many milliliters we have, and we're not gonna tell you how many queues. Although we might have told you how Yeah.
We're we're we're running 2. We did. Okay. Yeah. Sorry.
Go ahead. Yeah. But the fundamental it will be much cheaper than that without a doubt. When you when you start a new technology and you have new equipment and it's slightly underloaded or is underloaded as you're working through yield issues and commencing a ramp. New technology introductions are always a cost headwind but but the technology as currently defined will be much cheaper than than than, sorry, much cheaper than DRAM.
Your your question is more expensive than NAND. Yeah. Sorry. Well, it's gonna be more expensive than NAND for quite a while because, you know, 3 d NAND is is, very cheap. Eventually, as NAND as 3 d NAND scaling slows and as 3 d cost point continues to scale or as we add incremental, levels of sales for physical location, or we can foresee that that would cross over.
The only thing I would add to that is all all correct. The only thing is other thing is, man has the advantage of either MLC, TLC, or QL so number of bits per cell. Most RMs and R3D cross point don't start out with that capability. We're still looking at it long term, but there's some pretty fundamental challenges, to different kinds of resistive RAM materials to actually make them have multiple business. So.
So two questions. 1, you answered most of the questions about the 3 d first point, but long term, the number of layers you can add in switch integration, is it comparable, long term, you think, to flash or there another mechanism of limited like yield or perhaps temperature cycling, something like that? There isn't a it it it actually, in this case, comes down to the the physical structure. So Dan NAND scaling is all about tiers going forward and how many vertical tiers you make. And those those are you know, 324864.
What whatever number big numbers of tiers and the whole string is up. On on 3 d crosspoints, fundamentally still a planar technology with another deck on top of it. So there's actually 2 different scaling paths, which makes this it doesn't compete with NAND in terms of that kind of tier scaling, but you'll have 2 or 4 tiers or maybe more. But but you can also shrink it like a DRAM. So you have you have actually have 2 fundamental scaling paths on Essex on a three cross point and your your your opportunity to keep scaling down a down a DRAM like path is there's not a fundamental limit that.
Thank you. The other question is on, capacity and and market share. In DRAM, looks like some of the bigger competitor, competitors are adding or just maintaining wafer capacity. And so as you scale and and you use wafers, are you going to keep, try to keep market share, or is the idea to use the 3 d cross point to, I mean, you know, eat into that market and maintain total market share, versus trying to maintain the percentage against the other 2 companies. Yeah.
You know, we're gonna we're gonna maintain flexibility on all of that stuff. And and our decisions will, at the end of the day, they're gonna be based on our long term view with the ROIC. Right? We don't need to be any particular market share point in any particular technology. We do need, as Ernie talked about, we do need in aggregate to have enough scale to be an efficient manufacturing technology developer and and to be able to service customers and that we care about in those markets.
You've talked in the the last couple of these meetings about things you could do. If over supply overshot, you talked about, do we think fab loading down a little bit? Because we build inventory up during those periods. And I understand why you haven't done those things. You haven't had that much big growth anyway.
But can you talk about your thinking along those lines going forward? Are there still criteria that you would look at where you might run fab utilization lower than 100% or where you might let inventory build up?
Well, a decision on inventory is is somewhat easier than a decision on capacity coming offline. The decision on inventory is really based on what do you view, the market looking forward over some relatively abbreviated times you would that back end of the market. You know, a decision on removing capacity also depends on that forward looking market view, but it's little bit more complicated because it also depends on what you think the the competitor response, so that is. And, and and and quickly do you think competitors will realize what you've done and and responded? And so, you know, from from our perspective, we are we are, totally comfortable, not running our fab, flat out all the time.
But, at the same time, you know, we wanna maintain some reasonable market share, and we don't want to be, unnecessarily burdening, our, our, our our forward looking ability to deliver product to the customers, nor our cost structure, to the benefit of our competitors. So, you know, the decision to, take capacity offline, I think, has to be more predicated on it. Is there something structurally wrong over the long haul with the the line demand balance in the industry. And is that something that Micron should do something about? Yes.
Thanks. So as we look at 2017, how should we think about the portion of your mix in demand, you know, you know, going towards, you know, in terms of you talked about value creation and all of them, how do you see the SSD portion evolving And do you have all the holes filled in in terms of your product portfolio to address the market?
You want to talk? Here, I'll take that. We municipate continues to be very bullish on our performance in SSDs. And as you project out in 2017, with the byproducts of the portfolio, technology, additional investments in controller development firmware. We, you know, I hate to put too tight a range on it, but I think in somewhere in the you know, 30 to 40 percent of our capacity, at least, we see it in the SSD business.
Mind you that we categorize things like mobile differently and and and then embedded automotive type applications, but SSDs will be a a material part of our business. And the capabilities that we're investing again, similar to the CapEx discussion. The capabilities we're investing in in terms of controller development, for example, whether it be, like, a TCIE type controller initiative. Those investments that we're making in 2015 2016, we think that puts in a really good competitive position and, bicarb position for for 2017. Oh, let me let me do a quick follow-up.
Not all West 50s are created equal. Right? We we we have consumer SSDs, client SSDs, data center SSDs, enterprise SSDs, and we will target our output where we think we have the best relative competitive advantage and can generate the best return.
Okay. Then just a quick follow-up. This is a question for Scott. So just wanted to understand if given the DRAM end of life, whenever it happens, do you think that the replacement could be a nonvolatile memory or and how how ready is Micron if this transition happens. And can you give us some you gave some flavor for it?
And, you know, how ready is Micron that and what kind of cadence should we expect? You know, we saw that with 3 d NAND people have been talking about it for 5 years. So just wanted to get your early thoughts on the end of life Dina. Thank you. Sure.
You know, as I mentioned, we actually have a longer line of sight right now on DRAM Technology, probably even, than we than we did a year ago at this time through more focus on future nodes right now. But I don't I don't think the end of DRAM scaling is is impending over the next, 5 years. I think we're going to be strongly positioned again through our our focus on new memory technology when it comes time to have something ready for the NDRAM scaling. And we're putting, we're putting significant effort into, into that. And there and there'll be, I think there'll be opportunities for us to talk more about that over over the next couple of years I do think that it's most likely that that something that expands beyond DRAM, winds up being a nonvolatile memory.
And primarily because it brings so many other advantages along with it. So so the majority of our focus is on non volatility and high performance on on something that can replace DRAM long term. Just two questions here. On the NAND side, as you exit fiscal 16, what do you see the mix of, 16 nanometer TLC and 39? And the second question for Ernie, as you look at the guide, you talked about, giving a gross margin and operating income guide.
Do you think you'll guide for the full year too, what the gross margin, bracket should be or the upper OpEx? That's an easy one. We don't plan on doing this time.
You wanna take the
missed the first one. Sorry. Well, somewhat for competitive reasons, we're not gonna throw out a percent. Obviously, we've talked about our our ability to now to market with 16 nanometer deal state and you have to think the conversation earlier about the broader decisions we're making on capacity. At each of the factories, we have capabilities, and we have end markets.
For example, there are markets that are very attractive to us that are still on 25 nanometer NAND, MLC. And so, we don't wanna, for competitive reasons, tell people our recipe, needless to say that 16 nanometer CLC. It's starting from relatively low base to now. We're pretty excited to go to market, in markets like channel SSDs where it's pretty competitive. And we think what's interesting about that gives us a little bit of, margin uplift in that category of that segment because we've been out fighting with MLC products, up until today.
So suffice to say that we're gonna take every opportunity to drive that capacity where the returns make sense, but we're also looking at a broader mix of products and how that return aligns for the solutions we're landed. One other dynamic to keep in mind is that the that the 3 d NAND, as it rolls out A significant portion of that will be TLC. We will start at MLC, but very quickly that will transition.
There's a clearly an impression out of Taiwan that, in a terror is behind their curve, as they've made their presentations. And you're saying that you're you expect to have 50% of your bits out in q 4 on the 20 nanometer. Will that be primarily from, I mean, the the impression that's been left, maybe it's incorrect? Will that be primarily out of a Hiroshima and the MMT facility, or how do you see that
balance going? An Oterra is not behind, where they expect it to they are about on track, and we would expect the crossover to, would would occur in fiscal Q3 of 16 in terms of Micron overall bits produced, including including the effects of inventory.
Okay. And on the 20 nanometer as you talk about your scaling into 1x and 1y. Do you have has your architecture, your materials choice for your CAP structure, etcetera. Do you have a path where you feel that the you will be able to catch, close the gap between where you are now with the Samsung?
We're we're we're definitely confident in the material path and and architecture for the technology rolling out. And as I mentioned, we put we've put a substantial amount of resources into Deepgram relative to, historical and and teams really starting to trying to execute. So I I do believe we'll narrow, the performance relative to the industry leaders. And I I think our our DRAM story will continue to get better over the next couple of years as the R and D investment rolls into the manufacturing.
Okay. And your point about, re visioning the way CapEx and the latency for a CapEx to revenue. If you look at, people some people may have viewed that picking up VLPTA in the end of August or end of July of 2013, you've got a free $4,000,000,000 CapEx, if you will. You you put another $8,000,000,000 in subsequently. So you have a $12,000,000,000 over a compressed 2 year period on a revenue base.
That's roughly equivalent to where you were in August 2013. Do you have a because could you give some people give us, like, your sense of what kind of latency changes between where that CapEx would have been spent and where you would expect revenue dollars to leave out the margins and the market prices, but the revenue dollars to come from that CapEx investment
Yeah. I'm not I'm not sure I'm following all your underlying assumptions. In fiscal 13, I think we spent about 2,900,000,000 fiscal 14, we're gonna spend about 3.9,3.8,3.9000000000, something like that. Yep. So the number, I think, is closer to 7,000,000,000.
In aggregate, since the LP'd acquisition closed. I think the you know, I I don't believe that there's a that there's a sea change in the late sea relative to capital deployment to fit out for established technologies. I think there is, obviously, a a different, a return on investment building a new shelf or investing in, a, you know, a radically new memory technology like 3 d Crosspoint. And I think maybe the underlying, missing piece here is some of the headwinds associated, with remix of tool sets in LPIDA. Because we when you bring in you know, a mismatch toolset to find collapse, technology paths is maybe a little latency associated with that.
As well as, I think it's all here. Let me leave it there. I haven't had another another point. I was gonna leave it.
Thank you.
Yeah. First question for, Ernie, your CapEx guide, you're pulling out your strategic partner investments. You're taking that out of the normalized CapEx. But we also heard today that you have a lot of partnership activity that's not announced yet. You've got new memory technologies coming in 20 team perhaps beyond.
So why wouldn't that component be more of a recurring, CapEx versus discrete in 2016? Which portion of the strategic partner investments or 3rd party investments? You probably have strategic partnerships from from normalized CapEx. I'm just wondering if how how recurring that is given what's in the 5 one? You know, it's possible that it will recur on a year on year basis.
And if so, we'll talk to you about that and let you know what it is, but I don't it changes the fundamental message is, which is that on a normalized basis, we think sort of Micron's business is in $4,000,000,000 range. And next, we have some some extraordinary items, some of which are funded by, third parties. Okay. Great. We have time for one more question.
Thanks for taking my question.
Ernie,
I had a question for you on sort of a startup costs, going to next year specifically for 3 d NAND in Singapore. Just given the new toolset that's associated with, with 3 d and somewhat comparable to what we saw with 20 nanor DRAM. Just wondering if if you put some boundaries around it, there's some color on how we should look at that for you?
Well, I mean, startup cost is a is a pretty broad category. I think the investments in general are somewhere in the, you know, from from a pure raw startup phase somewhere in the range of low 100,000,000 for a 1000 way starts a week. We obviously have a shell facility that, is more an expansion area as opposed to directly attributable to to the startup costs. So I'm happy to help you out a little bit more, but, you know, those are sort of the 2 boundary conditions I can give you right now.
Just to follow-up, like, maybe in terms of,
you know,
margin impact or, DNA, incremental DNA.
Well, as I said earlier, we're still in the process of figuring out the specific timing of, of all those investments for next year, and we'll be talking a little bit more about that and the margin impacts, potentially as we get on our call here coming up. Alright. Let's just, close by thanking you all. Once again, we We're, glad to share a lot of good information with you today. We're bullish on the future.
And we're very, very focused on executing for our shareholders. Thanks for coming. Thanks.