Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2014

Apr 3, 2014

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Micron Technology second quarter 2014 financial release conference call. All the lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, please press star, then the number 1 key on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Thank you. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Kipp Bedard. Sir, you may begin your conference.

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

Thanks, Kate. I'd also like to welcome everyone to Micron Technology's second quarter 2014 financial release conference call. On the call today is Mark Durcan, CEO and Director, Mark Adams, President, and Ron Foster, Chief Financial Officer and Vice President of Finance. This conference call, including audio and slides, is also available on our website at micron.com. Excuse me. In addition, our website has a file containing the quarterly operational and financial information and guidance, non-GAAP information with reconciliation, slides used during the conference call, and a convertible debt and capped call dilution table. If you have not had an opportunity to review the second quarter 2014 financial press release, it is also available on our website at micron.com. Our call will be approximately 60 minutes in length.

There will be an audio replay of this call accessed by dialing 404-537-3406, with a confirmation code of 12756761. This replay will run through Thursday, April 10th, 2014, at 5:30 P.M. Mountain Time. A webcast replay will be available on the company's website until April 2015. We encourage you to monitor our website at micron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including the information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending. Please note the following safe harbor statement.

Speaker 17

During the course of this meeting, we may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company and the industry. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to the documents the company files on a consolidated basis from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause the actual results for the company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. These certain factors can be found in the investor relations section of Micron's website. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements.

We are under no duty to update any of the forward-looking statements after the date of the presentation to conform these statements to actual results.

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

With that, I'd like to now turn the call over to Mr. Mark Durcan. Mark?

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

Thanks, Kipp. I'd like to start today with an overview of the key developments during the quarter, followed by a few strategic and industry thoughts. I'll turn it over to Ron for a financial summary. Before turning to Q&A, we'll close with our prepared remarks with a few comments by Mark Adams covering additional details of our operational performance and market conditions. We had another outstanding quarter benefiting from a favorable industry structure and market conditions as well as solid operational execution. We achieved record revenue of over $4.1 billion, while gross margin improved to 34%, and our earnings per share improved sequentially on both GAAP and non-GAAP basis. We had very strong free cash at $85 million, based on operating cash flow of $1.39 billion, with CapEx of $562 million.

Operator

The company's focus is to drive operational excellence, deliver differentiated and system-level products to diverse market segments, and manage capital allocation, all with the goal of maximizing long-term shareholder returns. Ron and Mark will cover some specifics related to our execution in these areas. I believe we're executing well on multiple fronts, but we still have room for improvement in others, which we will also discuss. Our outlook for memory industry conditions remains favorable. We believe the current industry structure has fundamentally changed, and we can now manage our business focused on return-based capital and supply decisions, which was not always possible in the past. In terms of DRAM, it appears that Hynix's Wuxi fab is back online and supplies in the market.

Low supplier and customer inventory across multiple segments, coupled with our reduction in DRAM capacity as we convert Singapore to NAND, has led to an overall stable supply situation, and we continue to see favorable market conditions in what is generally a slow seasonal period. We expect to see DRAM industry wafer production down at mid-single digits in 2014 as a result of DRAM to NAND conversions and the ongoing increase in process complexity as geometries shrink. We expect total industry bit supply growth in the low to mid 20% range for 2014. This is slightly lower than our prior estimate. Beyond 2014, we expect similar year-over-year industry supply growth in the 20%-30% range, driven by relatively stable wafer output coupled with slowing process technology migrations compared to historical trends.

We continue to forecast five-year DRAM demand CAGR in the mid 20%-30% range, which implies continued favorable market conditions and likely a reduction in volatility compared to historical DRAM trends. For NAND, we're projecting industry growth in the low 40% range for 2014. This includes an increase in industry wafer production of just over 10%, with the remaining supply growth coming from technology. We expect 2015 to be in a similar range, but we could see a reduction in the growth rate beyond 2015 as 3D production becomes more predominant, and there is a subsequent reduction in wafer output given the additional clean room space required for 3D NAND. We are forecasting a five-year NAND demand CAGR in the high 30%-40% range.

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

As you've seen recently in NAND, additions to industry capacity can cause volatility in the market, given the challenge of matching long-term capacity decisions with short-term demand trends. However, we are very bullish about the future of NAND flash, and we believe that this will be a very healthy market. There are strong demand drivers and elasticity to drive rebalancing. Micron NAND process technology positioning remains strong. During the quarter, we continue to make progress on ramp and yields of our 20 nanometer and industry-leading 16 nanometer technologies. The product team has also delivered some exciting new products and innovations to our customers, including the market's best-performing PCIe SSD solution.

We're taking steps to better enable our high-performance MLC and SLC components in value-added segments and sockets, such as enterprise SSD, mobile eMMC, and automobile applications, and continue to add resources in controller, firmware, software, and packaging technologies to support this effort. Relative to Micron Memory Taiwan, formerly known as Rexchip in Taiwan, and since the end of last quarter, we've been engaged in the purchase of residual shares not previously owned by Micron. As a result of these additional purchases, to date, we have purchased all but about half a percent of the outstanding shares. Total consideration paid for the incremental 10.6% of the company was approximately $145 million. Finally, I'd like to update you on a litigation matter related to Inotera. As you may recall, in the fall of 2008, Micron purchased Qimonda's shares of Inotera.

In January of 2011, the trustee for the Qimonda bankruptcy proceedings filed suit against Micron in Munich, seeking, among other things, to undo the share purchase agreement from that transaction and to get the Inotera shares transferred back to the Qimonda estate. On March 13th, we received a decision from the court in Germany. On the one hand, the decision rejects the trustee's claim for the alleged value of participating in the Inotera JV. On the other hand, a part of the decision that is intermediate and not yet enforceable would require Micron Semiconductor B.V. to re-transfer the purchased Inotera shares to the Qimonda estate. The court also determined that the patent cross-license agreement that was entered into at that time is canceled.

There will be an update to the litigation discussed in our 10-Q. Since the material portions of the decision are not currently enforceable, nor in our view probable, there are not any material adjustments to our second quarter earnings. We believe the court's findings against us are wrong and will, of course, appeal. In conclusion, let me confirm we're very pleased with the results of the quarter and the outlook for Micron and healthy memory industry dynamics. We remain focused on optimizing value for our shareholders and worldwide customers in 2014 and beyond. I'll stop here and turn it over to Ron and Mark before returning for Q&A.

Ron Foster
CFO and VP of Finance, Micron Technology

Thanks, Mark. Our second quarter of fiscal 2014 ended on February 27th. As is our practice, we've posted to our website a file containing the financial information I will cover, including GAAP and non-GAAP results, certain key metrics for the second quarter, as well as guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2014. For the second quarter, on a GAAP basis, we reported net income of $731 million, or $0.61 per diluted share on the second sequential quarter of record net sales of $4.1 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, net income for the second quarter was $989 million, or $0.85 per share, which is $108 million higher than the first quarter. Non-GAAP adjustments netted to $258 million, or $0.24 per share. Key non-GAAP adjustments included the following: $80 million in accounting losses recognized on the convertible note transactions.

This includes losses in the second quarter on the conversions that were initiated in the first quarter, as well as losses on the conversions that were initiated in the second quarter. I have more on this in a few moments. $42 million non-cash flow through of Elpida inventory step-up related to the acquisition. Substantially all of the inventory step-up has flowed through to cost of goods sold. We don't anticipate non-GAAP adjustments for this in the future. Q2 adjustments also included $44 million in non-cash amortization of debt discounts and other costs. This primarily consists of the imputed interest on the convertible notes and the Elpida installment debt. In the second quarter, a $33 million adjustment was made to reduce the provisional gain on acquisition of Elpida, as a result of a change in the determined fair value of Elpida's assets and liabilities.

$55 million in non-cash taxes related to the Elpida operations in the quarter. Finally, 42 million share anti-dilutive effect of cap calls based on the average stock price during the second quarter of $23.06. In the third quarter, we expect the following non-GAAP adjustments. Approximately $40 million amortization of debt discounts on the convertible notes and the Elpida installment debt. We expect the results of the third quarter to also reflect $8 million of losses as the debt conversions initiated in the second quarter are completed. We estimate a $5 million to $10 million expense for the tax effects netted against these non-GAAP items. Non-cash taxes related to the Elpida acquisition of between $60 million and $70 million. Also, the anti-dilutive effect of our cap calls will be based on the average share price for the quarter.

Assuming a $24 share price, this would equate to a reduction in diluted shares of 40 million. Please refer to our convertible debt dilution table, which is included in the earnings call data file posted on our website. Let's turn now to our results by technology and our guidance. DRAM. DRAM revenue in the second quarter reflects stable bit sales and stable average selling prices. We experienced favorable overall market conditions, and gross margins improved about 5 percentage points to the high 30% range. Gross margins benefited from record sales in the server segment, an increasing mix of PC and networking sales as well as a shift to lower cost and higher margin wafer sales in the mobile segment.

If our share of Inotera's income in the second quarter were recorded in our DRAM gross margin, and we add back the higher cost from the inventory step-up from the Elpida acquisition, our reported DRAM margin would be approximately 6 percentage points higher than reported on a GAAP basis. DRAM gross margins for Q3 using quarter-to-date ASP and projected mix for the quarter indicates approximately flat gross margin compared to Q2, based on bit production down in the low single digits, including a small reduction in wafer production as a result of the earthquake, which temporarily disrupted our Hiroshima fab operations. Quarter-to-date ASP down low single digits on mix effects, and cost per bit down low single digits. Key items affecting our DRAM guidance for the third quarter are continued favorable market conditions and generally flat like-for-like product ASP trends quarter to date.

Limited impact going forward of selling through stepped-up inventory acquired with Elpida, and lower costs of product coming from Inotera as a result of a greater discount percentage as prescribed in the pricing formula. Turning now to NAND. On the trade NAND side, sales volume increased primarily as a result of the continued conversion of our Singapore fab operations to NAND. Trade NAND gross margins in the second quarter were in the high 20% range, down approximately 5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Selling prices came under pressure during the second quarter, partially due to seasonality and partially due to increased sales in the channel for our incremental production. NAND bit cost reductions were achieved through higher sales volumes of advanced technology products and cost efficiencies associated with expanding production in our NAND-focused Singapore operations.

Trade gross margins for Q3 using quarter-to-date ASP and projected mix for the quarter indicate down a couple of points compared to Q2, based on bit production is expected to be down high single digits, quarter-to-date ASP down low single digits, and cost per bit flat. The key trends affecting this guidance are substantially completing the conversion of the Singapore fab to NAND from DRAM, as I mentioned. On a like-for-like product basis, we expect to see some market price reductions for NAND in the third quarter. We expect a higher mix of trade NAND sales in the third quarter to be in the form of SSDs, which have higher bit selling prices and higher costs. Notably, SSDs also have longer manufacturing cycle times, which impacts our Q3 bit production as we ramp to higher volumes.

In NOR, as we indicated in our Q2 guidance, NOR sales continued their quarterly decrease with a market shift in wireless applications to NAND. Q3 NOR revenue is expected to be in the $100 million to $110 million range. Longer term, we expect to see revenue stability and growth in gross margins with the vast majority of NOR sales in the embedded market now and our planned transition to 300-millimeter production. Looking at other P&L and cash flow results and guidance, the company generated $1.4 billion in operating cash flow in the second quarter. As a reminder, the Q1 operating cash flow included a deposit from a customer of $250 million associated with a long-term DRAM supply agreement. On a normalized basis, we're seeing continued improvement in operating cash flows.

We ended the quarter with cash and investments of just over $5 billion, up about $650 million from the prior quarter. This amount includes just over $2 billion at Elpida and its subsidiaries, which is not available for general purposes across the rest of the company. Expenditures for property, plant, and equipment in the second quarter were $565 million, and we are on track to be within our guided range for the fiscal year of $2.6 billion-$3.2 billion. During the year, the company has focused on reducing the potential dilution associated with our convertible notes through a series of financial transactions. As we outlined at our Analyst Day in February, we intend to migrate our debt mix towards more straight debt over time, where the straight debt has investment-grade-like covenants and competitive rates.

In the second quarter, as part of our overall capital strategy, the company completed an inaugural high-yield debt offering that satisfied these objectives, raising $600 million of straight debt with net proceeds to be used for the retirement of our 2014 convertible notes. In the second quarter, we called for redemption of the 2014 notes as well. Given the settlement period required for their conversion, all of the remaining 2014 notes will be settled in the third quarter. As a result, our cash and debt balances will be reduced by approximately $700 million in the third quarter from settlement of these notes.

Year to date, once we settle the remaining 2014 notes in the third quarter, the net financial effects of the debt restructuring transactions, including the issuance of the high-yield debt, increases our debt slightly by approximately $40 million, utilizes approximately $1.3 billion of cash, and reduces equity by approximately $1.1 billion. Most importantly, we will have reduced the dilution exposure related to our convertible notes by approximately 68 million shares, which adds to the 40 million shares of capped call coverage we have in place, assuming a $24 stock price. Now I will turn it over to Mark Adams for his comments. Mark?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Thanks, Ron. Overall, we were pleased with the team's execution in Q2. In a quarter that at times has proven to be a weaker demand period due to seasonality coming out of the holiday season, our DRAM business continued to deliver strong results with stable revenue and strong gross margin expansion. Our DRAM capacity supports customers in our DRAM Solutions Group, Wireless Solutions Group, and Embedded Solutions Group. We had record bit shipments in DRAM specialty markets, including server, consumer, and graphic segments. Our server business achieved 68% year-over-year bit growth in the second quarter. Micron continues to provide our key server customers with unique solutions to help differentiate their products. We are working on HMC, or hybrid memory computing enablement, with key server customers. We also achieved DDR4 validation at key chipset partners and are beginning to ramp to volume production.

We continue to see strong growth in the public cloud market, indicating a three-year DRAM bit demand CAGR of 76%. Our networking business continues to be a segment where our capacity yields attractive returns. Our strong position in networking applications is a result of our technology-leading solutions and excellent customer relationships. HMC enablement is also ongoing with major networking customers as a path to provide higher bandwidth performance. DDR4 enablement with our key chipset partners will drive further differentiation for network solutions. Demand drivers such as LTE rollout in China and continued cloud and data center growth fosters a healthy demand outlook for the back half of our year. Our graphics business had a record quarter, shipping over 100 million gigabits. We saw major customer qualification of our GDDR5 product and positive yield improvement on our 25-nanometer process.

We had an impressive quarter in the digital TV segment, highlighted by a major win for our new IO product with a key consumer electronics partner. In addition, we saw better-than-expected sales at major game console customers. The desktop and notebook segment remained in good balance during our second quarter, and pricing was up quarter-over-quarter. As we commented during our last call, we will continue to optimize our computing versus mobile capacity as driven by market dynamics with the goal of generating the best possible return. In Q2, PC DRAM shipment volume was up 11% when compared to Q1. This upside was driven by improvement in overall cycle times, as well as continued favorable demand and supply balance in the market. From what we can tell, DRAM capacity in the industry has normalized following the recovery of one of our competitor's fabs in China.

Despite this capacity recovery, DRAM market conditions remain favorable, inventories in the channel remain relatively tight, below normal levels. On the mobile front, our WSG group had an outstanding quarter with operating margins of 20%. Like-for-like mobile DRAM prices were relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but our blended ASP was down primarily due to increased sales of mobile DRAM wafers, also referred to as known good die. WSG revenue was down for the quarter as we adjusted our product mix, but the business unit was significantly more profitable. Inventory of mobile products in the market remains tight, demand signals from our customers are strong. Coming out of Mobile World Congress, we saw continued impressive memory growth in the low and mid-range price phone segments as a number of customers announced products with two gigabytes of mobile DRAM, a density historically found only in high-end smartphones.

Our Embedded Solutions Group recorded revenue of $365 million, with continued strong operating margins of 16%, which would have been higher had not impacted by idle charges in our NOR manufacturing network. These charges should wind down over the coming quarters. ESG had a record revenue for Q2 in the automotive segment. On the product front, we had greater than 40% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in eMMC for the embedded market, with NAND and low-power DRAM MCPs also growing in the industrial segment. We remain bullish on the market demand, confident in our product breadth as we drive our embedded business in Q3. Our trade NAND revenue was over $1 billion in the quarter, up 11% as we continued the conversion of Fab 7 in Singapore from DRAM to NAND.

This conversion is now essentially complete as of Q3, although we will have a small amount of legacy specialty DRAM remaining for another quarter or so. We mentioned on our last call, this DRAM-to-NAND conversion necessitated a requalification of NAND material for products like SSD, consumer products, and eMMC solutions. These qualifications are often dependent on our customers' qualification cycles, as well as timing related to product builds, thus can last a few quarters. The result is we end up with more products sold in component form compared to our long-term target for the NAND business. We are continuing to shift our overall NAND production to our industry-leading 16-nanometer technology, which in our early ramp is shipping into consumer markets such as memory cards, USB storage devices and embedded consumer products. These transitions in our manufacturing output will enable a lower-cost product mix in the future.

We are currently in the qualification process at Tier 1 OEMs for our 20-nanometer M550 SSD products, anticipate shipping in volume for the back half of calendar 2014. Our Crucial-branded M550 client SSD shipments will begin in volume in Q3. Beyond SSDs, our consumer product group had some major wins, new retail customers with Lexar-branded USB and card products. Given current market pricing in the component channel, we feel these end markets will offer a better alternative than selling inventory into the NAND market. Despite some market softness in NAND, we remain optimistic on the longer-term demand profile for the end market segments. Both from a unit growth, a density-per-unit perspective, the client and enterprise SSD business continue to represent strong growth segments.

NAND storage upgrades in the high-end smartphone market, as well as unit and content growth in mid-range smartphones, fuel the overall mobile market as a large and growing consumer of NAND. In addition, the consumer and embedded businesses are migrating from low-density NAND and NOR applications to higher-density flash memory. We remain focused on adding additional value to our NAND technology by building the right organization capabilities and skill sets to deliver premium NAND solutions to our customers. To that end, we are pleased to welcome Darren Thomas as our Vice President of Micron's Storage Business Unit. Darren most recently served as the Vice President of Storage and Networking Products at Dell. He brings a unique customer perspective and understanding of different ways the market will utilize flash memory in the storage systems architecture going forward. We continue to invest in our underlying NAND technology as well.

Our 16-nanometer NAND yields have been very positive and position us well from a cost perspective. We are currently planning to ship 16 nanometers of TLC in calendar Q4 in order to better position our portfolio from a cost perspective in the retail and consumer segments. We are excited about our 3D NAND technology aimed at high-performance applications, still targeting volume production planned for fiscal 2015. While our DRAM business is performing well, we are committed to improving the long-term margin structure of this business. On the technology front, we are expanding the migration of 25-nanometer manufacturing beyond PC and mobile, with a focus on server-level quality with our top customers. Our 20-nanometer process migration DRAM is still on track to commence at the end of this calendar year, all of which should improve our overall cost position in DRAM.

Organizationally, driven by our opportunity to serve a more diversified set of end markets, we have implemented a new structure starting in Q3 aimed at better responding to application, market segment, and customer-specific requirements. We will engage our customers through one of four market-facing business units: Computing and Networking, or CNBU, Mobile, MBU, Storage, SBU, and Embedded, EBU. Tom Eby, who previously ran our Embedded Business, is now going to lead the Computing and Networking Business. Mike Rayfield will continue to lead our Mobile Business, and Darren Thomas, as previously mentioned, will run the Storage Business. Jeff Bader, who has been the Vice President of Marketing for ASC, has been promoted to run the Embedded Business Unit. In support of these market-facing organizations, we have set up three engineering groups, including DRAM, non-volatile memory, and advanced controller development, to help deliver the right customer and market-specific products.

The combination of the four market-facing business units with the named engineering organization will form what we now call the Memory Solutions Group, which will be led by Brian Shirley in his new position as Vice President of Memory Solutions. We are confident this new organization will help us better react to unique customer requirements in a memory business which is increasingly solutions-oriented. We continue to see overall good balance in the memory industry. We are investing in opportunities to differentiate our products and with our customers. With that, I will hand it back over to Kipp.

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

Thanks, Mark. We will now take questions from callers. Just a reminder, if you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset when asking a question so that we can hear you clearly.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press star, then the number 1 key on your touch-tone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Our first question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good afternoon, guys. Congratulations for the results. I guess my first set of questions revolve around the NAND business, maybe for Mark Adams. Mark, can you just help me understand a little bit better with the February quarter? You guys significantly beat the bit production guidance you gave, but you sort of missed on the bit cost reduction. I'm just curious the reason behind that. Typically, you would expect that if bit production were higher, perhaps costs would have been better. If you could help me understand that better, that'd be helpful.

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Typically, as we've made this conversion, there are early ramp production costs that go into our product costing. It was pretty close to our guide for the quarter, and we overall are still ramping. As I mentioned earlier, we're not fully ramped at the facility. We anticipate that there will be continued improvements, but at this point, the process of ramping that facility.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Mark, a longer-term question on NAND. As you think about where your margins are today versus your competitors, can you talk about maybe the two or three things that you need to do to bring your NAND margins up to industry average?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Sure. Well, I think that the things that we think about at Micron really are how we package our products and the innovation around controller and firmware, as it relates to not just SSD and storage, but also eMMC and the mobile phone and embedded business and how we optimize those products. Secondly, we had a customer base that primarily was requiring MLC products in the past, and our utilization of TLC in the future will be a big benefit to us. As I mentioned, we expect to have our 16-nanometer TLC products in calendar Q4 in the channel. I think that there are some interesting choices we've made that were probably right for the time in the past.

When you look at a market like retail, where now there's really two primary players, we're seeing a pretty stable business there and one that we'd like to continue to grow. Our market segmentation away from just component trade sales, if you will, to things like growing our retail and our channel SSD business, where it provides a margin and ASP uplift. Those are kind of the two or three things that I think are most important to us.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Guys, my last quick question here on the DRAM front. You guys, I think, cited server DRAM bits up pretty significantly year-over-year. I'm kind of curious, the impact you guys see coming from in-memory database. You saw Intel bring out a new class of Xeon chip, where really the only incremental benefit was how much DRAM it could address. You've heard Oracle talk about having to put more DRAM into their data appliance tools. How big is that market today, and could that drive significantly better kind of enterprise demand for DRAM than you guys are predicting right now?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah, absolutely. We think that we're pretty well-positioned to take advantage of that, not just through those relationships that you've mentioned, but through advanced technology we're developing at Micron. We see it as a pretty critical part of our overall strategy, and we'll continue to kind of keep you updated on our product development.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thanks, guys. Congratulations.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Cassidy with Stifel. Your line is open.

Kevin Cassidy
Analyst, Stifel

Thanks for taking my question. Along those lines for the server applications, the DDR4 announcement that you had, are you expecting to ship that for revenue in the June quarter or in the May quarter?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah, we are targeted to ship that in early volume material in the quarter to commercial applications for our customers.

Kevin Cassidy
Analyst, Stifel

Is that sooner than you had expected?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Right about what we thought.

Kevin Cassidy
Analyst, Stifel

Okay. Maybe as you're moving from the 25 nanometer and starting with your 20 nanometer, what kind of cost reductions are you expecting from 25 to 20 nanometer?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Kevin, as we've talked about in the past, it's pretty hard to do a year-over-year on these because these transitions are shifting out. It's so lengthy, if you will. Generally, if you take the process node changes, that's what you would ultimately get.

Kevin Cassidy
Analyst, Stifel

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Joseph Moore
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great, thank you. Looking to production growth in NAND down high single digits in May. I understand your response that it's sort of strong, the longer SSD lead times. I'm still surprised you go from up 35% in February, which is pretty steep kind of growth each month to down high single digits. Can you elaborate a little bit more on what's happening there?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah. The biggest part for us is as we look at the markets that we're serving, we take a look at that business and look at the opportunities to place these bits into the channel and what segments. Certainly, SSDs offer us a larger cycle time as far as the product builds and manufacturing. That's driving a lot of it, to be honest with you. That's where we see our growth in terms of products, and I think it's going to reflect in a much higher improved performance in SSDs in Q3.

Joseph Moore
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thanks. With the growth in the TLC that you talked about kind of being more aggressive in the back half, what are the markets where you think you'll see that deployed first for you?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Well, I think today, if you look at those markets really for kind of high-volume, low-end consumer business, I do think that you'll see eventually client SSDs and TLC out in the future. A lot of companies have been talking and trying to develop that. We think we have a good path to that over time, I think early application could mostly be consumer and retail.

Joseph Moore
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Monika Garg with Pacific Crest Securities. Your line is open.

Monika Garg
Analyst, Pacific Crest Securities

Thanks for taking my question. Could you provide more details regarding your share of Inotera and the lawsuit with Qimonda, which you just talked about in the beginning? Could that mean that you will have to transfer the whole share? If you challenge that, how long do you think it could take to resolve this?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah. Monika, since this is an ongoing case, I'm not going to answer too many questions about that. Let me just reiterate, we believe the decision contains significant errors and that the proceedings were fundamentally flawed. I'll give you an example. The court heard only from trustee witnesses, no witnesses from Micron, no expert testimony. As I said before, we'll definitely appeal. The other important thing that you should know is that the Inotera supply and technology relationship is not dependent on Micron's ownership of these shares. We have other shares that we own above and beyond these shares, and whether we did or we didn't, the relationship stands above and beyond the ownership.

Monika Garg
Analyst, Pacific Crest Securities

Thanks. Just the last one, the NAND side, could you maybe talk about how much percentage of output is at 16 and how much at 20? When do you expect the I'm assuming you will do some node transitions starting 2015 for 3D NAND. Would it be first half or second half of 2015?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Well, I mentioned that 3D NAND was a 2015 shipment. Within 2014, we're roughly in this profile, Monika. We're roughly about, today, during Q2, 32%, 25 nanometer, 60%, 20 nanometer. Some of that is SLC and what have you. In Q3, we intend to keep moving slightly towards a 16 nanometer mix. Sorry, 20 nanometer mix.

Monika Garg
Analyst, Pacific Crest Securities

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Vijay Rakesh
Analyst, Sterne Agee

Hi, guys. Congratulations. Another solid, decent quarter here. I just had a couple of questions. On the DRAM side, obviously pricing very stable with all the concerns, but on the bit growth was a little light. Can you elaborate, is that because of tighter tech transitions or capacity?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

The DRAM bit growth for us was more because we had the conversion going on in Singapore, which when you aggregate it out to some of the other improvement areas and process bit growth, kind of gave us what we had for the quarter. It's really a combination of the guidance we gave was pretty accurate relative to Q2, and it really revolved around moving parts, Singapore reducing and some of the process improvements elsewhere.

Vijay Rakesh
Analyst, Sterne Agee

Got it.

Ron Foster
CFO and VP of Finance, Micron Technology

Situation I might just add with, I mentioned the Hiroshima fab. We had a minor earthquake event that had a little bit of short-term effect on it.

Vijay Rakesh
Analyst, Sterne Agee

Got it. Thanks. On the NAND side, what % was SSD in the February quarter? You just mentioned you're increasing SSD output. What do you think the mix would be with SSDs in NAND as we go toward May/August?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

On our last call, I mentioned that the conversion process of that fab as a percentage of our overall output would have a decreasing effect in Q2. It was in single digits in terms of our overall capacity, SSD for NAND. We expect that to be much improved in Q3 relative to going up significantly in Q3 with both commercial OEM relationships as well as the channel. Somewhere almost approaching half of our NAND output getting back to SSDs.

Vijay Rakesh
Analyst, Sterne Agee

All right, great. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG. Your line is open.

Mehdi Hosseini
Analyst, Susquehanna

Yes, thanks for taking my question. The first question I have is on the DRAM. Can you elaborate on the margin profile difference between mobile and commodity?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah, both are pretty good.

Mehdi Hosseini
Analyst, Susquehanna

Can you elaborate on that? What is the difference? Are they both at the same level? Are you able to get the kind of margin that mobile requires given the die size difference?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah. A good way to look at it is you can go back, and when we gave you LPDRAM-specific data in Q1 and in August, that's a pretty good representation of where and how good the mobile business can be. To answer your question, PC is running just slightly behind that on a gross margin basis.

Okay, thank you. Then on the NAND side, can you also elaborate on the mix of embedded NAND as overall NAND or as overall revenues?

The embedded business, as you can see, you kind of get a sense on the embedded business relative. It's about proportional to what the embedded business is to our top-line revenue. The NAND business kind of mirrors that with embedded. We're seeing room for that to grow in the future, but right where it sits today, it's proportional to our revenue.

Mehdi Hosseini
Analyst, Susquehanna

Okay. One final question. It seems to me that the CapEx is pretty much back-end loaded. Is that correct, Ron?

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

A little bit, yes. As I mentioned, we're still projected to be within our guidance range of $2.6 billion-$3.2 billion. We ran about $560 million this quarter.

Mehdi Hosseini
Analyst, Susquehanna

Should we assume that you're going to hit the midpoint or more towards the low end?

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

I'm not elaborating on the range yet. That's the range we're giving you, $2.6-$3.2. I don't have a refinement on that at this point.

Mehdi Hosseini
Analyst, Susquehanna

Okay. Thanks much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Gauna with JMP Securities. Your line is open.

Alex Gauna
Analyst, JMP Securities

Thanks for taking my question. Congratulations on the result. I was wondering if you could go beyond your guidance for your high single digits, down high single digits production estimate on NAND. I know that's a production estimate. Considering sales, would you expect there to be a greater decline than what you're producing, a lesser because of MLC to TLC or mix factors? Thank you.

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

Alex, just let me make sure the room understands your question. Are you asking for a little bit more detail on what we think the relationship between the sales bits versus the production guide can be?

Alex Gauna
Analyst, JMP Securities

Correct. Thank you.

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Alex, it's Mark Adams. Basically, consistent with messages both at our Analyst Day and on prior calls, we're going to look at this from a what's-the-best-return-on-our-capacity and the decisions we're making around inventory. We look at the market conditions right now, and we see some pockets for stronger margins and stronger ASPs, and that's what we're trying to drive our product portfolio to do. Within a given quarter, we can have an impact on how much we sell and how much we direct to these different product opportunities, i.e., if we could ship components into the consumer channel or to the spot market, or if we ship them in SSDs. As we go through and look at the market conditions, that's really what drives our choices. It's really not easy to sit here and correlate what that's going to look like.

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

Having said that, we look at the demand for those end product segments as very strong. Even in Q3, we think that the actual system-level products, client SSDs, enterprise, and some of the consumer markets are going to have a very strong quarter.

Alex Gauna
Analyst, JMP Securities

Should we think about that mixed benefit being something of a delta to add to the difference between what you're expecting from ASP declines and what you're expecting from cost declines? Should we not think of that as a one-to-one correlation because of those mixed factors you're talking about?

Ron Foster
CFO and VP of Finance, Micron Technology

Alex, this is Ron. I think that the reason I gave you a view on sort of the trend of gross margin is we're trying to give you an overall perspective on the business. We have a lot of things that move around quarter to quarter between products and customer mix, and it affects cost and ASP ranges. In general, we'll be down a couple of points on margin quarter to quarter on NAND, and that's probably the most complete way to give it to you. We have variability, I mentioned, in terms of SSD flow. We're actually ramping SSDs in the quarter, and it's hard to call how much of that'll move out in the quarter in your production versus sales question and how much flows into the next quarter. We're ramping, and that's the important news.

Alex Gauna
Analyst, JMP Securities

Okay, real quick, DDR4, you said you will be shipping in May. What end markets are going to be taking that, both in May and then maybe in the second half as well?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Mostly networking and server customers.

Alex Gauna
Analyst, JMP Securities

Okay. Very good. Thanks so much. Congratulations.

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Mark Delaney
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks very much for taking the question. On the last call, I know your team had talked about not wanting to optimize margins in the short term at the expenses in the long-term margins when you were asked about thinking about your overall capacity between DRAM and NAND. I think you guys had talked at that point about expecting NAND margins to catch back up to DRAM when you are discussing this. Now that the NAND margins for your guidance are a bit below where your DRAM margins are for next quarter, has the calculations changed at all in terms of thinking about the mix of your capacity between DRAM and NAND?

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

We don't want to try and react with too high a frequency to changes in the marketplace. When we make those kind of comments, we are really talking about long-term decisions as opposed to short-term opportunities. Having said that, we are always maintaining flexibility in our business, particularly relative to segments, and with a lower frequency relative to technologies.

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

I guess the only thing I'd add from an efficiency standpoint, we now have all of our Singapore operations essentially running on NAND, and that gives us some real benefits in terms of operational efficiency and cost going forward. That also is a strategic decision.

Mark Delaney
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's helpful. Then I think you guys had talked about having some 3D NAND samples out this year. Can you give us an update on how that's progressing?

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

Yeah, we have very good progress, I think, on our 3D NAND technology. We're very excited. We've got functional components with very strong device characteristics, talking about things like read window budgets and tightness of programming levels, et cetera. We're very excited about it. We've decided that we're not going to sample for now. We like our relative competitive position and where we are relative to where we hear others might be. So we're going to wait till we're a little closer to volume production before we necessarily expose ourselves by getting samples out there in the marketplace.

Mark Delaney
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much, and good luck.

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Hans Mosesmann with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Thanks. On that subject of 3D NAND, what's the motivation for not sampling at the moment? You just don't want to show your open kimono, if you will, to the competition?

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

Well, our focus is going to be to deliver system-level 3D NAND products. Putting a bunch of non-enabled components out into the marketplace right now for our competitors to see is of limited value. I think we want to wait till a little bit closer to where we have those system-level solutions enabled, and then, of course, we'll be working closely with our most valued customers to make sure they understand what's coming down the pipe and the value we can deliver for them with it.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Can you share with us how many layers you have on your 3D NAND approach?

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

No, that's the kind of thing we're not wanting to share right now.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Just one last one on 3D NAND, just if you could provide industry dynamics in terms of the overall ramp of 3D NAND. Is it as expected, slower than expected? That'd be helpful. Thanks.

Mark Durcan
CEO, Micron Technology

I think it's about as we've been indicating for Micron. It's maybe slower than some of the early noise was. We still anticipate we'll be in the marketplace late this year, but the impact of the marketplace is

Is not really until the second half of 2015, maybe with some folks, I think I've heard are talking a little later than that even now.

Hans Mosesmann
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is a follow-up from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hey, guys. Sorry if I missed this. I'm just wondering on the OpEx guide for the May quarter, can you help me understand the increase on a down revenue quarter? Is this just the pulling in of some projects, or how do I think about the OpEx level?

Ron Foster
CFO and VP of Finance, Micron Technology

Well, John, this is Ron. The OpEx guide is generally in line with our run rate for the quarter, this most recent quarter, maybe up a little bit higher, and that's usually a function of wafer quals on the R&D side. We were at $344 in Q2, and we're guiding $345-$355. That's just typically wafer qual costs and that sort of thing that's cycled differently each quarter. In SG&A, we're right in there, $177 was this quarter, and we're guiding $170-$180.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Mark, I think you said in the calendar fourth quarter, you would expect to be shipping TLC. Is that into enterprise SSDs as well? Can you talk a little bit about controller technology around TLC?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Sure. No, my point earlier was that the initial applications for our 16-nanometer TLC components will be more consumer and retail-oriented up front. To date, no one has had a lot of success, even on the client side, enabling TLC memory. There is a lot of work being done, and your question around controller development is a good one because I think that's where the error correction and capabilities around enabling TLC to be reliable enough to ship in that segment. We still think that's kind of a 2015 calendar year phenomena. We don't see that happening in large scale in calendar 2014.

John Pitzer
Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Operator

Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you do have a question at this time, please press star, then the number 1 key on your touch-tone telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Freedman with RBC. Your line is open.

Doug Freedman
Analyst, RBC

Thanks for taking my question, guys, and congratulations on a strong quarter. Can you give me a sense of what your inventory plan might be for next quarter?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Sure. This quarter, as you can see, our inventory was flat. As we look at inventory, and we've communicated this message, and it's a good chance to do it again. We're looking at this business from a returns perspective and not looking to hit some arbitrary inventory numbers in a given quarter. In the DRAM business, it's pretty tight right now, so-

Really tight.

Really tight. We don't feel like we're in a position that we're going to be holding back inventory. We've got customers who need us to support them, and it's a pretty healthy market. The NAND business, as we talked about earlier, we're going to make choices around the customer relationships and the product opportunities. We're going to resist the temptation to hit, again, a predefined number in inventory. We're going to run the business to make money, and we're going to run it through the right products, and that's kind of an ongoing process we're going to do.

Doug Freedman
Analyst, RBC

When I look forward, if you could, so far you guys have been pretty good in the last couple of quarters about hitting your numbers. Have you reconsidered whether or how close are we to getting actual guidance going forward?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah. Doug, it's a good question. We've talked in the past, this is something we're constantly reviewing, I think we believe that's going to be appropriate at some point. We're not ready to do it just yet.

Doug Freedman
Analyst, RBC

I guess my last question, it does appear you've talked about your qualifications that are necessary in NAND. I'm seeing some signs that there's definitely different qualities of NAND out in the market. Can you maybe talk about whether there's any concern on your part that the quality of your products that are in the market might not be reflective of the quality that you can deliver in the future? Does that run the risk of having any potential of damaging your brand?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Well, we tend to feel pretty strong about what we've delivered. This being a new category, customers over the last couple of years have been working with companies like Micron to make this a world-class quality level technology they can bring to both the desktop and to the enterprise. Having said that, we've invested a lot in quality, especially around the SSD place, and our NAND performance has been actually touted from key enterprise customers as the highest-performing NAND in the market. As we look at our business, yeah, we're learning a lot. It's a new category, but we feel pretty strong about our technology and our products. The areas we've invested the most, for example, PCIe, we've had the highest performance product in the market. From a reliability standpoint, we don't see that as something that we're explaining anything about in the past.

We think it's been a pretty good quality opportunity for us to grow and to learn about system-level solutions. We think that will lead to stronger product development in the future.

Doug Freedman
Analyst, RBC

Great. If I could sneak one last one in on the DRAM front. In the last quarter, you talked quite a bit about shipping in wafer format. I believe the demand for wafer format is dropping a little bit. How do we think about the trade-off of maybe bit growth for those wafers versus margin? How much of a delta is there in wafer sales versus component sales, and what type of impact does that have on the bit growth numbers?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Sure, Doug. The margin on the known good die that Mark mentioned is better, which is why we took advantage of it over the last couple of quarters. We're going to ship, I think you're right in characterizing that we'll probably ship fewer of those types of wafers, which all of that wrapped in, by the way, because I'm getting some questions on some of the guidance we had adds to this mix effect in terms of bit growth and cost downs. I think you've characterized it right, that the known good die program is more profitable for us than packaged parts, and we have had a pretty strong market for about six months to ship more and more wafers into that. I think now we're going to probably back off of that just a little bit.

As Mark and Mark both alluded to, we're actually shifting mix into customers that drastically need it and are being short-shipped today. There's plenty of homes for where we mix DRAM. We'll continue to maximize margin with it.

Doug Freedman
Analyst, RBC

Great. Thanks for taking all my questions.

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

You bet, Doug. I think we have time for one more.

Operator

Our next question is a follow-up question from Betsy Van Hees with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open.

Betsy Van Hees
Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Congratulations on the quarter. Thanks so much for squeezing me in. You guys talked about how tight the DRAM supply is. As you guys are looking forward and your competitor continues to bring production online and supply and demand come in more in balance, how are you guys looking at gigabyte content in PCs? Are we going to see an increase in that given that things have been so tight and they've been having a hard time getting any components?

Mark Adams
President, Micron Technology

Yeah, Betsy, for the first time, we're seeing third-party data that suggests about a 12%-15% increase in content this year. The numbers would look something like last year's average of about 4.3 gigabytes, going to about 4.9 this year.

Betsy Van Hees
Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations again on the quarter.

Kipp Bedard
VP of Investor Relations, Micron Technology

You bet. Thank you. Thank you all. I'd like to thank you for participating on the call today. If you would please bear with me, I need to repeat the safe harbor protection language. During the course of this call, we may have made forward-looking statements regarding the company and the industry. These particular forward-looking statements and all other statements that have been made on the call that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. For information on the important factors that may cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to our filings with the SEC, including the company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's Micron Technology second quarter 2014 financial release conference call. You may now disconnect.