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Susquehanna Technology Conference

Mar 2, 2023

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

You may begin. All right. I think we're just about to start. My name is Mehdi Hosseini, senior analyst at Susquehanna International. It's with great pleasure to host this fireside chat with the team from Micron. This is actually a truly a global fireside chat. We have Mark Murphy and Farhan from U.S., and Manish Bhatia, who manages operation from Micron, dial in from Singapore. The format is that we will go through a set of prepared questions and topics for 30 minutes, then we open it up to the floor for any question. You can raise your hand or alternatively, just email me your question. With that, again, I wanna thank the team from Micron, especially Manish, dial in. Perhaps Mark, maybe we could start with you giving us an overview of the quarter that just that you just closed, and then we go from there.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Sure, Mehdi. Thank you all for joining us today. Before I start with your question, I'll do a safe harbor. We will be making forward-looking statements. These statements have risks and uncertainties associated with them. I do refer you to the risk factors disclosed in our public filings. To your question, we are not providing a quantitative update on the quarter, which ends today, but I can provide you and the audience some color. Customer inventories are improving, though they're still elevated, with some markets like mobile in relatively better shape than others, such as cloud. We continue to expect improving demand through the year, but pricing trends remain challenging. Consequently, we expect lower margins in our fiscal Q3 than we previously expected.

This outlook may lead to material inventory write-downs, which could or would have an adverse impact on our second quarter margins and EPS. While we're encouraged by supply actions across the industry, it's clear that there is still significant supply-demand mismatch in the industry. As we've said before, we expect our DRAM supply to contract in calendar 2023 to help better align supply demand. To supply anticipated volume growth in the near term, we have ample inventories and adequate production. While our cost of goods are being impacted by the effects of underutilization that we've talked about before, our broad-based spend reductions are generally coming down in line to ahead of plan. For example, on labor, headcount is now projected to be down approximately 15%, versus the 10% we discussed on our December earnings call.

These labor and other reductions will take some time to work through. For example, on the labor, we talked about that occurring through the calendar year. The important point is that we're seeing progress as planned. OpEx, for example, is coming down, and we expect to achieve the $800 million per quarter level by our fiscal fourth quarter, which is down from over $1 billion in the fourth quarter last fiscal year. We will continue to evaluate and navigate these challenging market conditions and adjust our operating spend and CapEx as appropriate. We remain confident in the long-term demand for memory and storage and in our ability to capitalize on these long-term trends.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Great. Thank you, Mark. Thanks for the update. Perhaps, maybe you can remind us, what is your expectation for DRAM bit shipment this year? If this year is going to be one of the most severe downturns in DRAM, then in next year look really attractive. Update on the bit shipment for this year, and what is your current assessment looking into next year for DRAM shipment?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Hi, Mehdi, and thanks again. Maybe I'll take this one. You know, on our last earnings call, we had mentioned that we expect that, you know, DRAM demand for this year will likely be in the low teens, and NAND likely to be around 20%, both of these slightly below what we believe the long-term demand for DRAM and NAND as we're, you know, continuing to work through inventory in this calendar year. We will likely update our industry growth forecast at the time of our [SQ 2] earnings, but that's the guidance we had provided before.

We also said that, you know, we believe that the industry, the DRAM industry needs negative year-on-year bit growth in calendar year 2023 in order to have, you know, to return to normalized inventories by the end of the year and flattish growth for NAND for that to for inventories to normalize. There have been actions across the industry that are in that direction. You know, again, we'll provide a little bit more color on our next earnings call. For us, we had said that our bit production in calendar 2023 for DRAM, as a result of the CapEx reductions and the utilization reductions that we've taken, that we will be negative year- on- year in DRAM and up slightly in NAND.

As a reminder, you know, we had announced approximately 20% utilization reduction in both our DRAM and NAND networks, in late part of last year. We, you know, we haven't really provided anything yet on calendar year 2024. It's too early for that right now. We'll have to see how things play out.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay, great. Just to summarize, the bit shipment for DRAM, bit shipment loading NAND, 20%. On the supply side, a decline in DRAM and a flattish on the NAND side, right?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Well, we said that the industry needs that. For us, what we said is that we would be negative on DRAM bit growth year-on-year, and on NAND, maybe slightly up.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. Got it. Okay. The inventory situation, I think we started with the inventory correction middle of last year. It seems like we need the entire 2023 to work that down. Two follow-up question here. If you could elaborate or quantify DRAM inventory for Micron and industry or at the customer side, same for NAND. I have a follow-up here.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah. Maybe, Mehdi, start with customer inventories. As I mentioned in my opening comments, you know, the customer inventories, they're still elevated, I'd say across the board. Now, some markets, like mobile are better, other markets like cloud are worse. We do expect, you know, our demand to increase through the year as we continue to see the supplier, or these customer inventory levels decline and improve. That's still the case. And you know, again, that's gonna support what we see as volume growth through the year. Our inventory levels are still, you know, very high. As we said on the last call, our second quarter here, we expected days of inventory to be over 200 days, with NAND being worse than or h igher, I should say, than DRAM.

However, as I mentioned in my earlier comments, given the challenging pricing environment and assessing our current outlook, we could have, and, you know, inventory write-downs that are material in this second quarter, and of course, that would have an impact on reported inventory and the associated metrics. We did mention, you know, on the last earnings call, looking out through the year, we did mention that we expect to end FY 2023 with still elevated inventory levels in excess of 150 days versus, you know, what's more normal down around 100 days, which we're certainly keeping working towards longer term.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Given the setup that you just laid out with inventory, then could fiscal Q3 revenue be down again? Or there is enough of a shipment increase that would offset the lower pricing?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah, I mean, you know, the market's clearly trying to get its footing, and while we expect volumes to improve through the year, and actually pricing, we expect the declines to moderate through the year. The pricing environment currently is weak. Our third quarter could be flat to down, or we believe will be flat to down, versus the second quarter, as we see it today. Of course, you know, we've got, you know, this is the end of the quarter, we'll report, at the end of March, and we'll have a clearer picture and more commentary at that point.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. I think, Mark, just since we're on the topic, I think one of the things that I always struggle with inventory, write- down. Your book value will come down, but you can actually make up for it as we go through upturn. Your margins could also improve as the cycle turns. Can you just give us a, an idea how we should think about the near term and the longer term impact of the inventory write- off or write- downs?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Well, I mean, you've touched on it. It's gonna be a timing difference. We're essentially, you know, pulling forward, or writing down things and pulling forward that cost into the current period. The sort of the basis of that inventory would be lower and, you know, going forward, that margin would be, would be better, with that inventory having been a portion of it having been written down. You know, again, we'll talk in the earnings call about, because we'll need to go through our procedures at the quarter end on our inventory balances and assess those against the pricing environment in our latest forecast.

We will size, you know, a write- down, if and as required, and at that time, talk about how that will, you know, flow through the income statement and play out through the forecast in the future.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. Just one final follow-up here. As we look into the second half of the year, your inventory is coming down, your customers' inventory coming down, and hopefully supply and demand are more in balance. Is it gonna take a period for customers to feel good enough to start thinking about a long-term contract, pricing contract? Is it gonna take, like, 2024, sometime in 2024 is when longer term contracts would resurface. How is the inventory correction going to impact price negotiation dynamics?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Well, that's probably a question that's better handled in the earnings call when we have a better picture of the forecast and, you know, a more complete picture of the market dynamics and are willing to comment on that.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I mean, I think what we are seeing is, you know, the market working to get its footing. You know, we see some positive data points and hope that those positive data points increase in frequency and are more sustained. Right now, there's no doubt that it's a challenging pricing environment still. However, we do still see volumes increasing through the year. We do still see and believe that customer inventories are improving, and that eventually, you know, and supporting the volume growth, customers will be replenishing their inventory levels, and eventually prices will firm up and market conditions will improve. We'll comment more in the earnings call...

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

... If there's any change on that.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

That's fair. Moving on to next topic, CapEx. I think last time you guided to fiscal year 2023 CapEx of $7 billion-$7.5 billion. Any update there?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

No update. Maybe just reinforcing that, we're certainly it's a big lever for this business, an important part of our business, both, you know, managing the cash flow and, investing for the future and the technology, investment required. We still have, you know, no update range between $7 billion and $7.5 billion. That's down 40% year-over-year. WFE within that is down over 50% year-over-year. I think what you'll see in 2023, and you see this play out into 2024, is the mix of CapEx is, kind of a bit heavier on construction, and that's related to just long-term capacity planning.

Also related to fiscal 2024, as you mentioned on the last earnings call, you know, we do expect our 2024 to be significantly down versus what we had originally planned to align with this supply demand environment. We expect 2024 WFE to be down from 2023 levels. Again, you know, we're, you know, we see an improving demand environment through the year, but as we've talked about, we have a substantial amount of inventories to work through. We have the underutilization, of course, that Manish mentioned that we will, you know, reutilize our capacity or bring capacity utilization back up. We have some nodes that are in great shape and can be efficiently ramped when we need to.

Manish can talk more about that later. We're feeling good about, you know, our current CapEx projections, but of course, we'll modulate that, based on market conditions and.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Just a quick follow-up here. When will you include the CHIPS Act impact?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

That process is underway, you know, for the application, as you've seen. We have some assumptions internally, but and may be in a position to make some comments on it, at the earnings call about what we expect.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

You know, we would expect substantial grants in addition to the legislated ITC. In order to support any investment in U.S.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. Is...

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Maybe I'll just add, maybe I'll just jump in on that one and add that, you know, our plans for, you know, that we've announced for both the Boise, Idaho, manufacturing site that'll be co-located for R&D, as well as the larger scale manufacturing site in Syracuse, New York. You know, both of those are really to meet supply for the second half of the decade as we talked about. We're still, you know, a ways out in terms of the WFE CapEx for those coming into our, you know, our window. You know, not likely to be or not going to be in 2024. Really it's just a, you know, the construction CapEx that might start coming in there.

As Mark mentioned, you know, we're still pretty early in the CHIPS process to understand how, you know, grants and investment tax credits will be able to impact those as we go.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

A couple of other semiconductor manufacturers that have commented on CHIPS Act, it seems like there is a lag in effect. The funds will come in one or two years later, and then they will readjust depreciation schedule. It could have a impact on the margin and depreciation margin, one or two years after the actual application is filed. Is that a reasonable assumption?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Mehdi.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

I'm gonna have the accounting.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah, Mehdi, we've got a lot of, there's a lot of variables there.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yeah.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

That, you know, we'll talk about at a future date when it's appropriate. The important thing is just to recognize that we're being capital disciplined. We are investing the amount that we need when we need it. As it relates to U.S. investment, it requires the full support of that legislation in the form of substantial grants and a, you know, full and long ITC applied to the projects.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Got it. Okay. Let's switch gears and talk about process technology and maybe Manish could help me here. What's the update with the DRAM technology as you transition from 1-alpha to 1-beta and 1-gamma? What's the update on the EUV insertion?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Sure. Sure. Thanks, Mehdi. On DRAM, you know, we, 1-beta is looking like a very, very good node for us. You know, as a reminder, our 1-beta node does not utilize EUV on the back of 1-alpha. You know, we've been able to push the, you know, the advanced immersion capabilities and multi-patterning, you know, beyond others in the industry. We feel really good about that decision with regard to both what we were able to deliver, in 1-alpha, you know, industry leadership in terms of time to market and it's been a terrific node for us.

1-beta now that we've, you know, we're making very, very good progress on, expected to have really good bit density improvement, about 35% improvement versus 1-alpha, which in itself had 40% improvement over 1z. These two have been really, really good nodes. We're bringing up 1-beta across our portfolio. We'll have, you know, 1-beta, we'll have solutions from, you know, in the mobile space, in the compute space, you know, LP5 and DDR5, and then we'll have it in, you know, across our graphics and high bandwidth memory as well.

Really it's gonna be a broad node, and that's what we've, you know, invested for this year, was to make sure that we could bump the yield curve on 1-beta, which is going very well right now. That we'll be able to deploy it across multiple products so that as demand recovers, we're gonna be ready to ramp the node well across all end markets. You know, everything's looking like it's gonna be, you know, again, another time to market advantage for us as well as a very, very strong and competitive node. With regard to EUV insertion, you know, as you said before, you know, we're gonna be inserting EUV into our roadmap on 1-gamma, and that continues to be the plan.

In fact, we have now received EUV tools, not just in our development center in Boise, but also in our manufacturing site in Taiwan. We're getting ready for that 1- gamma insertion. That 1- gamma, as we announced on or explained on our last call, is now scheduled for 2025. We're, you know, we're exercising the EUV tools now and making good progress there. We'll have multiple layers of EUV on 1- gamma, but would expect that we'll have even more penetration of EUV in subsequent nodes later, or more number of layers in subsequent nodes. You know, we really feel great about our DRAM roadmap and some of the decisions we've made.

You know, 1-alpha was a great node, 1-beta optimized for DDR5 insertion and as well as LP 5 is gonna be a really strong node. We're getting, you know, excellent feedback from our customers for the early samples we've provided and think that we'll continue to lead the industry in the DDR5 ramp as we have been.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Manish, when you say insertion 2025, is that fiscal year or calendar year?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

I'm not sure that we've given, specifically. I think it'll be, you know, sometime in calendar 2025.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Gotcha. Okay. Just one quick follow-up. What would be approximate mix of a DRAM based on 1-beta like exiting this year?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

I don't think we've provided that yet, but it will be a very strong node for us this year, as we continue to ramp up on DDR5 and LPDDR5 and take advantage of the benefits, yeah. You know, we may provide some more color...

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Right.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

... A little bit later, but I can tell you that it's performing very well, both from sampling perspective and from a yields perspective.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. I think one concern is...

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

It'll certainly be a function of the overall demand environment...

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Right.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

... and how inventories work down and...

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yes.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

... and how we deploy our CapEx. Also the, you know, the overall utilization, and how, you know, what our, you know, how that works.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yes. utilization is improving into next year, and then just the pricing improving, that will give you the boost in DRAM gross margin. And then in 2025 is when you, your wafer density would step down again when gamma or EUV is inserted.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yeah, I mean, that's the next time that we'll have a technology shrink. I think we'll continue to get benefits, from, you know, 1-beta conversion.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Right.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

... all throughout 2024. Again, 1-beta is gonna be a really, really good node for us.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. Go ahead.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I just wanna make sure, Mehdi, that's not lost on. You know, we'll work down the inventories. We'll benefit once utilization picks back up. As Manish said, we have two very good nodes that are ready to go. When they go HVM, that's gonna be favorable on next and then the next.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. Okay. Quickly, same question on NAND. Where are we technology and what's the next step?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yeah. You know, we mentioned that our 232-layer was making good progress, and it is. Although, given the inventory situation, we have slowed the ramp of 232. Again, continuing up the yield curve very, very well, and also deploying, getting it ready to be deployed across multiple end markets so that the, you know, the mobile, the SSD products will all be getting ready to be qualified. Then we'll bring it and increase the volumes on 232-layer as we see, you know, the inventory situation improve, and we're able to, you know, take more advantage of the, of that technology.

Still, for this year, we expect 176-layer to be the workhorse for us, in terms of our NAND, through 2023.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. Moving on to the mix, and it is for both of you guys, Manish and Mark. Should I assume that under DRAM and inventory write- down is mostly like a DDR4 and trailing edge technology nodes?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah. We're not gonna comment on the mix. You know, it's, you know, all I can say at this point is, given the pricing environment, in our latest outlook and one that we'll refine here over the next several weeks, it looks like an inventory write- down.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

... is more likely. You know, it'll be a portion of our inventories.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I'll leave it at that.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. How should I think about DDR5 and the price premium due to the die size penalty? In the past, we always would think of the next DDR as having a premium over the previous technology. Now, given the downturn, I don't think compares. Should we still compare DDR5 prices to DDR4? The pricing dynamics are different given the downturn?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Well, I mean, as you.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I-

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Go ahead .

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Go ahead.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

I was just gonna say, Mehdi, you're right that the die size is larger, and so it is more expensive. I would expect a price premium. I mean, I think, we expect a price premium for that product. In terms of margin, that'll remain to be seen. But certainly the costs are higher, not just for Micron, for everyone, given the specifications of the DDR5 die. We feel we're very well positioned with our DDR5 portfolio. Again, 1-beta is optimized really for that product.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I would maybe just also add to Manish's comment, there's the cost element which should hopefully drive higher pricing in the market. As Manish said, we're very well positioned on the product line. Also DDR4 inventories are higher. As the new CPU platforms, you know, hit Sapphire Rapids and Genoa, you know, they can only use DDR5. The DDR5 inventory levels are thinner than DDR4. You know, that ramp of those new CPU platforms into a bit tighter market should...

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yeah.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

... Hopefully, help with that.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. And by the way, DDR5 will also be adopted for the PC application, no?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yes.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yep. Yeah, actually already, I mean, I think some of that already happened last year, and I think we talked about our strong share in the PC space last year. Definitely now we're, you know, with these new CPUs, we're starting to see the server wave begin. We think that will take some time, though. We think that it'll be, you know... Yes, it'll be happening this year in 2023, the crossover for DDR5 to DDR4 will be in calendar 2024.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. Now I'm gonna switch gears and read some of the questions that are sent to me. Apologize if some of the questions are repeated. I'm just gonna read them to you. Going back to the EUV commentary, did you say that you have actually received an EUV tool in Singapore facility?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

No, I said Taiwan.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Taiwan. Okay.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yeah.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

And then-

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yes.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

For years, yes.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

That's right. Singapore is our NAND Center of Excellence, so no, I had said it was in Taiwan.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

I just wanna make sure. What about Japan? Would Japan also receive EUV tool later on?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

No, we're still working on our overall roadmap. Right now, the plan is for our 1-gamma to be manufactured in Taiwan and with, you know, taking advantage of the, you know, the strong EUV expertise that there is in Taiwan across the foundry ecosystem there. That's what we've announced so far.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. Gross margin question. If you're writing down inventory, does that imply February gross margin will be negative?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Does it imply February quarter gross margin will be negative?

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yeah. Yeah.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

We're not gonna comment on margins until we report the results. You know, the depends on the size of the write-down, of course, and, you know, it would materially affect the results as material inventory write-down, which, you know, the current pricing environment and outlook indicates that there would be a material write-down. Yeah.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. Would you ask the team if they would take further cuts to the wafer starts?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

We will. You know, as I mentioned before, you know, we announced that we have approximately, you know, 20% reduction in wafer starts or 20% utilization actions in both our DRAM and NAND network. We'll, you know, continue to evaluate that level in line with both the demand trends that we see and the, you know, the inventory position that we see ourselves having and we'll be, you know, flexible to be able to manage that to optimize for those factors.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. You said early on that smartphone inventory is relatively better. Has China reopening and demand for smartphone in China anything to do with it, or was it just a broad statement?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I'm sorry, repeat the question.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. At the beginning, you highlighted that smartphone inventory or memory inventory used for a smartphone is relatively in a better shape compared to the other end markets. The question is whether China reopening has had an impact here.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah. It's certainly. I didn't call that out specifically and, you know, that would be one of many factors. I think maybe one of the larger factors is just the market has been, you know, under pressure for so long and the inventory levels have been worked down for, you know, going on close to a year now, that, you know, it just had more time to work it down versus, let's say, data center, which, you know, those inventory levels started being adjusted really in the fall. I think it's a combination of those things.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Sure. Follow-up question here, Mark, when you talk about inventory write-down, is there a specific inventory? Are these all finished goods, or does that also include work in progress? Any color on the mix of the inventory that is being written down?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah. Again, we'll provide more details on the call. I do wanna point people to our disclosures that we do, we look at inventory as a single pool. You know, you know, we're not going to go into and don't account for this at the, you know, product level. That, you know, as we'll give more details on the size and how the write-down will occur and affect on future periods. Again, we look at inventories as a single pool.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. Contract pricing. I'm just gonna read this to you. I don't know how to rephrase it. As investors, we continue to hear and read that quarterly negotiations close after the actual end date of the quarter. What can you do to bring this process into the quarter and to better manage inventory or is there anything you can do to change the dynamics of the contract pricing negotiation?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

You know, I think the negotiation of the customers are ongoing. You know, as, you know, there's excess inventories at the moment. supply-demand balance is poor. You know, through the year here, we're seeing customer inventories improve, and expect the market to firm up and pricing effects to moderate, and eventually improve. I think it's important that, you know, again, as I mentioned, we've seen some positive data points. There haven't been enough and, you know, not sustained enough, which is why the pricing environment remains challenging. However, we are seeing some positive data points.

You know, I think it just bears, you know, repeating some of our longer-term themes that there will be memory and storage growth. There are strong secular growth drivers to this business. You know, automotive and industrial, data center and all the recent news on AI, for example, while it's not a material effect in the near term because the supply-demand effect is the dominant, you know, feature in the business at the moment. It's trends like that that long term will really drive the business. If you believe that, you know, AI is going to drive strong growth in compute, then you have to believe it's gonna drive strong growth in memories. There's a match there. I think that's certainly... We're managing the business, of course, for the short term.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yeah.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Improving the financial condition. We're also sustaining investment in technology products, manufacturing to take advantage what of what is a great market to be in long term.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Mark, just a quick follow-up there in terms of end market demand. You mentioned, smartphone relatively or inventory within a smartphone, relatively better, data center is the worst. What about PC market? What do you see in that end market?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I'd say, less clear. Are you talking specifically about inventory levels?

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Inventory and demand from the PC end market.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Well, we think PC, you know, end markets in 2023 units, PC units will decline. However, we do believe that PC bit shipments will be up in both DRAM and NAND, driven by content growth. You know, given where pricing is, you know, is there some elasticity that growth is a bit stronger? We'll have to see. We do see bit growth even though we do see PC units down.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay. If PC market was the first one to weaken, more than a year ago, do you see any signs of a stabilization in terms of just the demand trends, or is it still very cloudy or not clear?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

You know, we'll give an update on, you know, on the earnings call. I think, you know, since our view really hasn't changed since the earnings call, I think that's maybe points to stabilization in our view. It's just that the inventory picture in PC, you know, isn't as sharp as the distinction between, let's say, mobile and data center. I think.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yeah.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I think it's, you know, it may be more on the kind of mobile side as far as inventory channel health. You know, let us make sure we do our full analysis and give a complete assessment in the earnings call.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Shifting gears more of a longer term. As we look into, like, 2024, should I assume that content growth and unit growth would help with the rebound, or would the content growth accelerate? Is there any color that you can give us? I'm thinking about PC units and content, smartphone units and content, the same thing for, like, a data center or servers.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I think in PC we talked about, we think unit PC units will be down. Bit shipments will be up, driven by content growth.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yeah.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Smartphone will we believe will have content growth as well. Underlying smartphone units, we had said on the earnings call, we expected CY 2023 smartphone units to be up slightly. Now it might be trending a little bit off that. Again, that's something we're keeping an eye on and I'll have a better picture on the earnings call. We feel good about content growth and maybe your question earlier, things seem to be stabilizing in both markets. Of course, we're very, you know, everyone, including ourselves, excited about the data center trends long term. It's gonna be growing faster than most segments of the market. You know, except maybe with the exception of automotive growing even faster, and that's across DRAM and NAND. Very excited about things happening there, and our technology and product positioning for data center customers.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Looking into 2024, perhaps auto could provide you with the fastest content growth relative to like PC, smartphone, data center.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Auto continues to be just a very strong grower. It's gonna, you know, it'll increase to, you know, through this decade to become a more meaningful part of memory and storage. Fortunately, Micron has over the decades developed a very strong position in that space, and, you know, knows the technologies, knows all the qualification requirements, manufacturing, you know, requirements for that space, and maybe Manish can talk more about.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Okay.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yeah.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Finish.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Go ahead, Mehdi. I mean, I guess manufacturing, but not... Go ahead to your next question.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

I was gonna... I got two more follow-up question. Why don't you finish because we're reaching the 45 minute mark? Will you finish, and then I will wrap up the call with the final two questions that I received.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

No, I was just gonna add to Mark's statement. We're really proud of what we've been able to establish in automotive, number one market share, and, you know, great relationships with a number of different, you know, OEMs as well as the, you know, supply base to those OEMs. Throughout the pandemic, we, you know, I personally had multiple different company CEOs telling us how our supply chain resiliency, our quality, you know, both were things they really valued. Of course, our product, our broad product portfolio across DRAM, NAND, and NOR for automotive is unmatched.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Yes.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Really an area that we think we're gonna be able to take advantage of. As Mark mentioned, automotive is the fastest growing segment throughout the rest of the decade.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Got it. Mark, I remember at CES, we spent like an hour debating the pros and cons of cutting back the utilization rate versus inventory write- down. The question that I'm getting is asking, why not just peel off the Band-Aid and further reduce the utilization rate, instead of writing off inventories?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

I think I mentioned earlier that, you know, we are remaining flexible to evaluate our utilization levels in line with, you know, the demand that we see in the inventory. I mean, that's exactly the trade-off decisions that we make. We, you know, will continue to evaluate them.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Manish, is there like a back envelope formula to help us understand how the dynamics of lower utilization rate would work against or versus inventory write- down?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Well-

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Is there a formula you can give us?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Yeah, I mean, look, prices are still well above cash costs. You know, as Manish mentioned, you know, we, you know, there is a, you know, we evaluate inventory levels, how we can efficiently manage the manufacturing network. You know, we, you know, where is pricing relative to costs, you know, across the enterprise and make the best judgment we can. You know, again, we're always evaluating it with a number of factors in the market conditions, we'll update you and investors as we make material changes.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

It's more complicated than just trying to simplify, these two knobs of utilization rate versus inventory write- down, right?

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Yeah. For example, one other factor is, you know, just trying to understand how you efficiently transition fabs from one technology node to the next, right? We have these two great technology nodes that we've talked about that are industry-leading, 1-beta and 232-layer NAND. You know, of course, as you go out and you trying to figure out how you efficiently transition, you know, while managing with, you know, CapEx and supply big growth. That's just another factor. Yes, I mean, the decisions do have many different, many different considerations.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Got it. Okay. We're two minutes or three minutes past the 45-minute mark. Manish, Mark, do you have any closing remarks before we wrap it up?

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

I would just say that, you know, Micron continues to perform well in adjusting to these market conditions through our cost or, you know, our spend program reductions, or our spend reductions, our modulating CapEx. But continuing to invest in technology and product leadership. We're in a great position for when the market strengthens to take advantage of all the long-term trends that we see, in automotive, AI and other areas that we talked about today. Thank you for your time.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Thank you, Mark, Manish, and Farhan. I appreciate it, and look forward to additional commentary in a couple of weeks when you have your earnings conference call. For those investors, if there's any follow-up question, you know where to find me, and I wish everyone a great day. Thank you, guys.

Mark Murphy
EVP and CFO, Micron Technology

Thank you, Mehdi.

Manish Bhatia
EVP of Global Operations, Micron Technology

Thanks, Mehdi. Thank you. Thanks for having us.

Mehdi Hosseini
Senior Analyst, Susquehanna International Group

Bye.

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