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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 21, 2022

Operator

Good day everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation second quarter of 2022 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words "we expect, believe, anticipate," and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to those forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website.

The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Good afternoon, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Before we get to our second quarter results, I wanna highlight some changes we've made to our executive leadership team. As we announced in May, MaryEmily Slate retired on June eleventh. MaryEmily is a dedicated and exceptional leader, and we thank her for her more than 21 years with Nucor. Her impact on our teams across the enterprise contributed greatly to Nucor's success and profitable growth. The Nucor team wishes the very best for you, MaryEmily, and your family, and you will always be a tremendously valued member of the Nucor family. With MaryEmily's retirement, Dan Needham has assumed the role of EVP of Commercial. John Hollatz was promoted to Executive Vice President of Bar, Engineered Bar, and Rebar Fabrication. John is a proven leader.

Over his 23-year Nucor career, he has served in our joist and deck, building systems, and flat-rolled businesses. We welcome John to the executive team. As part of this reorganization, Chad Utermark has been appointed to the newly created role of Executive Vice President of New Markets and Innovation. In this new role, Chad will focus on our continued growth into new markets and integrating new businesses into the core operations of Nucor. Also joining me today on the call are members of Nucor's executive team, including Dave Sumoski, our Chief Operating Officer, Steve Laxton, our Chief Financial Officer, Al Behr, responsible for plate and structural products, Doug Jellison, responsible for raw materials and logistics, Greg Murphy, responsible for business services and our general counsel, and Rex Query, responsible for sheet and tubular products.

Our mission to become the world's safest steel company is the greatest measure of our culture and our most important value. Halfway through the year, we are on pace to have our new safest year in history, which is coming off back-to-back record safety years. I wanna thank each and every member of the Nucor family for your focus and dedication in ensuring every team member is safe. Turning to our financial performance, we achieved a record second quarter earnings per share of $9.67, and record first half earnings of $17.30. This record performance was driven by strength across our diversified portfolio of businesses. Strong financial results were recorded by a number of our businesses, including bar, plate, sheet, structural, joist, deck, buildings, tubular, and our raw material operations.

Since entering the steel business, we have focused on growing long-term earnings power and shareholder value. This month, we are celebrating 50 years since Nucor was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. During that time, we have led the transformation of the domestic steel industry, and we are the envy of the world in terms of Nucor's environmental footprint, safety performance, and efficiency, as well as profitability. Nucor has grown revenues by more than 13% per year from $83 million when we were first listed on the exchange in 1972 to last year's record of $36.5 billion, even as the total size of the domestic industry has shrunk. We have also grown our workforce from 1,800 team members back in 1972 to more than 31,000 team members today, and in the process, created a huge amount of shareholder value.

$1,000 invested in Nucor when we were first listed would be worth over $1.6 million today. Our record first half results continue the history of delivering new highs in profitability and cash flow through successive economic and steel market cycles, demonstrating the sustainability and adaptability of Nucor's business model. We have world-class manufacturing talent, and we are making the right investments to continue our track record of outperformance. Several of our recently completed organic growth projects in our core steel making businesses are already contributing to a record first half profitability, and there is more to come as additional projects ramp up production or come online. For example, our Nucor Steel Gallatin modernization and expansion project is now fully operational, having completed the last of their project-related outage work on June sixth.

Our Brandenburg, Kentucky plate mill is on schedule and on budget for a late 2022 production start with almost 400 team members on board. This is a game-changing mill in the U.S. plate market that will firmly establish us as the market leader in plate. In May, the State of West Virginia approved the air quality permit for our new sheet mill in Mason County. Groundbreaking for the project will happen later this year. Also during the second quarter, we completed our purchase of C.H.I. Overhead Doors and announced two acquisitions that will lead to the establishment of Nucor Towers & Structures, which will serve the utility, transportation, and telecommunication sectors. We are so excited to welcome our new team members into the Nucor family.

As we execute on our mission statement to grow the core, expand beyond, and live our culture, these investments are excellent examples of what we look for in Expand Beyond businesses. They serve growing markets and leverage Nucor's core manufacturing capabilities and our safety and team-focused, incentive-driven entrepreneurial culture. We look forward to rapidly scaling up their operations as we continue to broaden our portfolio of construction market solutions. As we evaluate growth initiatives, either in our core business or by expanding beyond, we focus on driving incremental value by leveraging our capabilities and existing positions of strength, as we have done for the last five and a half decades throughout our history. Earlier, I mentioned the fiftieth anniversary of our New York Stock Exchange listing.

Our July 12th, 1972 news release announcing the listing gave our firm's business description as, quote, "The nation's largest producer of steel joists", end quote. It had mentioned that the company also produces carbon and alloy steel. At that time, we just operated one steel mill, which was Nucor Steel Darlington. Nucor's tremendous growth in profitability and market value over the past five decades has been fueled by our decision back then to expand upstream into steel making. The result is that today we are the leading North American manufacturer of a diverse array of steels and steel products, providing essential solutions for construction, infrastructure, energy, transportation, automotive, capital goods, and consumer durable market applications. Today, Expand Beyond is a disciplined strategy for profitable growth and value creation, just as our expansion into steel making was 50 years ago.

With it, we are targeting higher growth sectors of the economy and leveraging Nucor's core competency in efficient, variable cost-based manufacturing, as well as our broad product portfolio and existing channels to market. Turning to policy issues, I want to mention that we support swift passage of legislation to address semiconductor manufacturing and beneficial updates to our trade laws through legislation known as Leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0. Congress must get this important bipartisan priority across the finish line. Since the COVID-19 pandemic first disrupted our lives more than two years ago, it has become clear that the U.S. needs strong, resilient domestic supply chains for all sorts of critical materials, such as semiconductors made by great American companies. Reshoring semiconductor production here in America gives us a tremendous opportunity to unleash a manufacturing renaissance in the United States.

Also, last week, the United States International Trade Commission unanimously extended anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders for an additional five years on imports of corrosion-resistant steel from China, India, Italy, South Korea, and Taiwan. While this is a positive development, unfairly traded imports remain a concern for our industry. The ITC is conducting several more five-year sunset reviews this year of key trade orders on flat-rolled products. These orders are critical to market stability and industry performance and are an important part of our government's trade enforcement toolkit. Nucor is working hard to ensure that they all remain in place. Finally, today's headlines are full of concerns regarding inflation, interest rate hikes, and whether we'll experience a recession. While we are all aware of these factors, Nucor's sustainable and flexible business model gives me great confidence in our ability to continue to grow and create value for our shareholders.

Our team is focused on enhancing our capabilities, not simply adding capacity, and on delivering a differentiated value proposition for our customers by reliably and safely providing a broad offering of the most environmentally responsible steels and steel products found anywhere in the world. Before I turn it over to Steve, I want to congratulate our 31,000 Nucor team members for a fantastic first half of the year. Thank you for your hard work and dedication and commitment to delivering exceptional customer service. Let's continue our progress towards delivering the safest, cleanest, and most profitable year in Nucor's history. Now Steve Laxton will share additional details on our first half performance and our outlooks as we move forward into the second half of the year. Steve?

Steve Laxton
CFO, Nucor Corporation

Thank you, Leon. As Leon mentioned, this year's second quarter was the best quarterly financial performance in our company's history. The quarter's earnings of $9.67 per diluted share exceeded our prior quarterly record of $7.97 per share by more than 20%. Operating profits were stronger than we anticipated for all three segments. I wanna thank our 31,000 teammates for these fantastic results. Your dedication and efforts are what drive the efficiency of our manufacturing businesses, which enable us to reliably meet the strong demand we're seeing across our broad array of products. Comparing the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2021, all three segments generated higher earnings, with pronounced outperformance in our steel products segment. That segment produced $1.1 billion in operating profits for the quarter.

Our joist and deck business continued to be the largest contributor to the segment's performance. While joist and deck shipments were down from the first quarter, higher prices more than offset the decline in volumes. Contributions from tubular products and metal buildings were aided by both higher volumes and higher pricing during the quarter. Overall, our steel products segment continues to benefit from strong non-residential construction demand. This segment's earnings power and strong free cash flow characteristics continue to make key contributions to our overall performance. In our steel mill segment, shipping volumes were up by 10%. Most of the increase was in sheet and plate, as we were able to take advantage of what we consider to be strong demand, leading to attractive pricing in those markets.

Our metal margins decreased by about 5% from the first quarter's $941 per ton to a still robust $895 per ton. Offsetting some of the benefits of the stronger metal margins we have been realizing over the past several quarters are some cost pressures from higher electricity and natural gas pricing. Our energy cost per ton of steel produced was up approximately 50% year-over-year. However, for some context, energy costs still represent approximately 6% of our overall cost per ton. Some of the changes in the energy commodity pricing seen in the marketplace overall over the past year were mitigated by Nucor's physical and financial hedges that we had in place. Our raw materials segment outperformed first quarter results on the back of increasing selling prices for DRI and scrap.

DRI benefited from elevated metallics pricing that we use to determine transaction values between segments. Cash provided by operating activities during the quarter was $2.3 billion, enabling both continued investment to grow Nucor's future earnings power and the return of approximately $900 million of our shareholders' valuable capital via dividends and share repurchases. Our direct returns to shareholders for the quarter was 37% of earnings. Year to date, it is 43%. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. Our highest priority is deployment of capital in our businesses to create long-term value. We also remain committed to our regular quarterly dividend, something Nucor has paid and grown consistently over the last half-century. Importantly, we remain committed to additional direct returns to shareholders in times of strong performance, with an overall payout ratio of at least 40% of net earnings.

During the five years ending in 2021, we returned approximately 56% of Nucor's net earnings to shareholders. We remain confident that with the capital we retain and deploy, we are building a more resilient, more profitable, and more cash-generative Nucor. During the second quarter, Nucor funded $520 million in capital expenditures and $3.1 billion in acquisitions. Between this past December and this year-end, we expect to have completed three major organic growth projects that will substantially enhance the competitive position of our steel mill segment. The first, Hickman's Gen-3 galv line, was completed this past December. The second, Gallatin's modernization and expansion, was completed in June. The third, our new state-of-the-art plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky, is anticipated to start at the end of the year.

We expect these investments to generate at least $370 million of combined annual EBITDA once fully ramped up at mid-cycle performance, and considerably more in robust market conditions like the ones we're seeing now. Nucor has an additional $3.6 billion of approved and in-process organic growth investments that will be completed by 2025. The largest of these is our West Virginia sheet mill. Once these five projects are fully ramped up, we anticipate they will contribute a further $700 million in run rate EBITDA in normal market conditions. As you're also aware, we closed on C.H.I. Overhead Doors in June. With the acquisition of Summit Utility Structures and Sovereign Steel Manufacturing, we've established Nucor Towers & Structures.

We expect these businesses, along with other new capabilities we've acquired, such as insulated metal panels and warehouse solutions, can contribute as much as $600 million of incremental EBITDA annually in future years. Turning to the balance sheet briefly, as of the end of June, Nucor had debt to capital of 29% and ample liquidity with $2.5 billion of cash, short-term holdings, and restricted cash holdings, and an undrawn $1.75 billion in revolving credit facility.

In May, we felt it was prudent to enhance liquidity and raise $500 million of senior notes with a three-year maturity and a coupon of 3.95% and $500 million of senior notes with five-year maturity and a coupon of 4.3%. Turning to the outlook for the third quarter of 2022, while we recognize there is considerable economic uncertainty right now, demand appears stable and resilient across our key end use markets. Prices in the steel segment have softened due to import pressures coupled with overall commodity pricing declines globally. For the third quarter, we expect lower earnings from our steel mill segment relative to Q2, and we expect continued strength in steel products and raw materials, with performance roughly in line with the second quarter.

For the year, we expect earnings per share will establish a new annual record for Nucor. Thinking about the longer term, with balance sheet strength and product diversity that is unparalleled in our industry, coupled with our highly variable and adaptive business model, we remain confident that Nucor is well-positioned to deliver on our commitments to our team, our customers, and our shareholders over time. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, simply press the star key followed by the digit one on your telephone keypad. Also, if you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, it's star one if you would like to ask a question or make a comment. We'll pause for a moment. We'll first hear from Curt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodworth
Director and Metals & Mining Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Yeah. Hey, good afternoon, Leon and team, and congrats on the exceptional quarter. First question is just with respect to the plate and structural markets. You know, you noticed somewhat soft utilization rates for those verticals this year, yet pricing is holding up extremely well and, you know, basically close to record metal spread today. Just wondering if you could talk to kind of what you're seeing in those markets and maybe long products more broadly. You know, how you think about plate volumes into 2023 with respect to ramping, Brandenburg. Thank you.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Yeah, absolutely, Curt. Thank you. We're incredibly proud of our team in achieving an incredible quarter, an incredible first half of the year at over $17 per diluted share. It's just a tremendous outcome and again, something that we and the entire executive team could not be more proud of the 30,000 men and women who make up the Nucor family. You know, specifically to your question on structural and plate, I'll let Al Behr, our EVP of Plate and Structural, touch on it. I'll just say from a very high level before I turn it to Al, that you know, one of the unique opportunities that we have, particularly in structural, is the market share position that we have.

We are the leading structural manufacturer in the United States, and it's something that we've talked about many times and shared with you and other analysts that, you know, through the cycle, we have seen incredible performance in that sector with Nucor-Yamato, Nucor Steel Berkeley beams reporting incredible returns and profitability out of those mills, even with some, at the time, depressed utilization rates in the, you know, high 60s%-low 70s%. Over the last couple of years, that's improved markedly in 2021, peaked at upper 90s%. That business segment for us continues to operate. Al, I won't steal all your thunder, but we couldn't be more excited about the shift in what's moving in place and the soon coming online of our plate mill in Brandenburg. Why don't you just touch on that a little bit and share where we're at with Brandenburg as well.

Al Behr
EVP of Plate and Structural Products, Nucor Corporation

Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Curt. Thanks, Leon. As Leon said, Curt, I just echo, you know, in the structural side, I'll start there first. We typically run at utilizations, you know, they're 60-70% and hold that leadership position. Q2, we saw much of the same. Our utilization may have ticked down just slightly in the structural side, and I'd say that's just not chasing the cheap tons. You know, truck and rail car availability remains a bit challenged and probably slowed up a few tons. Our market share position remains strong. Our utilization remains right where we'd expect it, and we remain really excited about the opportunities in structural.

As we talk to fabricators and we talk to what I call the consumptive demand part of the market, the folks that are buying our steel and making something out of it, is still really strong. We're excited about the rest of this year, and we're excited, frankly, about 2023. With regard to plate, you know, I would say, we've made several changes on how we market that product, how we take it to market, how we price it, and how we load our order books. We're really pleased with what that has brought to the market in terms of a rationality of pricing and much less volatility in the pricing.

Supply and demand still governs the price of that, and we publish a price, but the market determines what it really is, and it's held quite strong. Our utilization in Q2 was improved from Q1. Our order book improved when we talk about project work from bridges, from infrastructure, which we expect to mainly hit in 2023, but is starting to strengthen even today. Again, fabricators are a big part of that plate business. They remain strong with strong backlogs. Service centers is a big product segment. They remain a bit cautious with their buys. The sentiment around that part of the market is perhaps I would say more pessimistic than what the reality is. Again, the consumptive side really strong. You asked about 2023. I would just say we would expect continued robust markets.

Non-residential construction has been one of our most resilient markets across the enterprise, and we would expect that continues in 2023. I mentioned infrastructure starting to produce better strength. Energy, including renewables, has been a strong market. When we talk about the build-up to the start-up of Brandenburg by the end of this year and the markets it'll start to serve and open up for us in renewables like offshore wind and some even specialty pipe work, it's very exciting. I mean, we stand as the only mill in North America, the only mill in the Western Hemisphere that can serve that market that's currently served by foreign steel, mostly blast furnace steel.

This will be the cleanest, you know, offshore-powered steel that exists in the world, and we stand in perfect position to serve that market. Pretty excited about it. Our team has done a wonderful job there, navigating the challenges that project has faced over a couple of years, and we sit ready for a start-up by the end of the year. We hope to strike an arc as a matter of fact on the hot side even yet in the next literally day or two. Very excited, very proud of that team. Appreciate your question. Thanks.

Curt Woodworth
Director and Metals & Mining Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Great. Maybe just as a quick follow-up, with respect to Gallatin, can you just give us an update on progress there and what your commercial expectations are for volumes into the fourth quarter? Thanks in advance a lot.

Steve Laxton
CFO, Nucor Corporation

Yep. Thanks, Curt. I'll ask Rex Query, our EVP of Sheet and Tubular, to give an update on Gallatin.

Rex Query
EVP of Sheet and Tubular Products, Nucor Corporation

Yeah. Curt, thank you for the question. Quick summary, all our primary steelmaking equipment has been purchased. We've awarded our significant portions of civil and concrete work.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Just about Gallatin.

Rex Query
EVP of Sheet and Tubular Products, Nucor Corporation

Oh, I'm sorry. Sorry, Curt. I was talking about West Virginia, which I'll hold that for a moment and share that here, perhaps a little later with a question or a follow-up. For Gallatin, completed our second quarter outage. All equipment's been commissioned at this point. We have expanded our slab width beyond original capabilities, so we're beyond 68 inches now. That, the new equipment, we're capable of 73.5 inches. We'll be ramping up here third quarter. By fourth quarter, we expect to be at nameplate capacity. As you may recall, original stated capacity for that mill, about 1.6 million tons.

The expansion will add about 1.4, so we'll be right at the three million ton mark and capable of producing at nameplate capacity during the fourth quarter. Our ramp up also and what we produce will be determined also by what's going on in the marketplace. I do wanna state that, and we'll gauge that by the demand in the marketplace. Thanks for the question.

Curt Woodworth
Director and Metals & Mining Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Seth Rosenfeld of BNP Paribas.

Seth Rosenfeld
Managing Director and Head of Product for BNP Paribas Equity Research, BNP Paribas

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking our questions. I've got two points on raw material strategy, please. First, with regards to pig iron from the mill's perspective, obviously, when we spoke to you a few months ago, you emphasized the strategy to de-risk pig iron supply for the full year. What does that mean for your cost of inventory today? Were you ultimately forced to lock in some high-priced deliveries that might still be arriving even though spot has declined sharply? Secondly, from the raw material side, I think your guidance includes higher DRI price realizations in Q3. Can you explain what would drive that given the weaker scrap and pig iron prices that we're seeing in the spot market Q o Q? Thank you.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Yeah. Seth, thanks for the question. I'll ask Doug Jellison, our EVP of Raw Materials and Logistics, really to provide some background in how that flow-through impact of the DRI pricing into the mills works and explain that in a little more detail. Doug?

Doug Jellison
EVP of Raw Materials and Logistics, Nucor Corporation

Sure, Leon. Thanks. Thanks for the question, Seth. First thing, I wanna acknowledge the great work that the mills and our raw materials group has done over the last six months. Tremendous flexibility and execution to react to the changes in the supply chain. No stops in production. We've cut our pig use by about 50%, which also has led to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and has really been a key part of supporting our record earnings. A big shout-out to the team and a thank you. You're asking about pig iron. As I mentioned, our reliance on pig is half of this year what it was last year. There's no overhang of or buildup of pig. There is the normal flow of pig prices as we purchase pig deliveries, lead times, working through inventories.

We see a little bit probably leveling of pig prices through the third quarter, declining into the fourth quarter. As far as the DRI, we adjust our DRI transfer price monthly. We want the transfer price to reflect the market price into the steel mills, so that'll reflect in those segment reportings. As a result of that, we see a stable input cost to DRI with a still elevated pig price or transfer price into the third quarter and then dropping pretty significantly into the fourth quarter.

Seth Rosenfeld
Managing Director and Head of Product for BNP Paribas Equity Research, BNP Paribas

That's great. Thank you very much.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Thanks, Seth.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Carlos de Alba of Morgan Stanley.

Carlos de Alba
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, thank you very much. Good afternoon. Maybe just exploring a little bit more the outlook for the steel product business. You know, the guidance seems to suggest that there should be relatively in line with the second quarter. Could you comment a little bit more, what where you see the main changes? What is the composition of these basically stable operating results? Is it prices offsetting. Sorry, volumes offsetting prices the other way around? How you see margins? Any color would be helpful. If I may squeeze another one, is it possible to get an update on how you see CapEx for the remainder of the year? Maybe, you know, first look at 2023, and how do you see working capital evolving in the coming quarters? Thank you.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Okay, Carlos, let me start off with our steel products businesses. It's a good question in terms of how that breaks out, because there are segments within the products group that will continue to have record-setting pace and performance. As a group, though, in its entirety, the steel joist and deck buildings, different segments contained in our steel products group, had a record quarter in this past quarter. In fact, their performance in the quarter was stronger financially than the entire year of 2021. At $1.1 billion of net earnings for our products group, they are setting an incredibly high bar and really operating on all cylinders. Chad Utermark, who was our EVP of our products group and now moving into new markets.

Chad, why don't you just kind of break through a little bit of that split and how that's looking? What's our forecasting into Q3 and Q4? Steve, if you would, on the CapEx.

Chad Utermark
EVP of New Markets and Innovation, Nucor Corporation

Yeah. Thanks, Leon. Yeah, similar to what we had in the script, we expect Q3 earnings to be very similar to the record-breaking results that we had in Q2. Just a big shout out to all of our downstream product groups. As Leon mentioned, we have multiple businesses from joist and deck, rebar fab, steel piling, racking, tubing, insulated panel, grating. That group continues to perform well. There are indicators that we have come off the highs in some of these businesses as far as backlogs, but I want to remind you how strong those highs were. In some of our businesses, our backlogs are still at record levels.

Most all of our downstream businesses have current backlog levels that are 30%-50% higher than the average backlogs we had in that 2015-2019 period prior to the pandemic. We still see that non-residential construction space that is the driver for these businesses, as Al mentioned earlier, to be very strong. What can you expect going forward, even into, you know, past third quarter, and into the future? You know, what I would say is you should expect higher highs and higher lows, and here's why. Number one, we've been making some changes in our businesses through the years, and we've talked about some of those.

From restructuring some of our business to bringing on a construction solutions team, even alignment within our groups to better, more effective commercial practices and expectations that drive higher EBITDA margins. We're not done. You know, bottom line, in some of our businesses downstream, we needed to get better. We've made progress, and I'm proud of where the team is at and where we're headed. In addition to that, we're bringing on these new businesses and expand beyond. You should expect good results from businesses like our insulated metal panel business as we grow that and as we drive efficiencies through that. Steel racking, steel towers, and obviously the overhead steel doors with the acquisition of C.H.I. All these should positively impact our profitability as we fully utilize and integrate these products into our construction solutions portfolio.

I guess if you can't hear my excitement, I'll reiterate again, I'm excited about the future of our downstream businesses.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Hey, Chad, one thing I'll add, and just maybe a further point, Carlos, to share some of this. You know, we get some questions, or I've got some questions over the last weeks, months. You know, why are you so optimistic in the face of inflation and interest rates? If we just look, for example, at the warehousing space, you know, forecast by Dodge for 2023 is down about 19%. As Chad mentioned, and I think it's an incredibly important part, our industry has shifted, and it shifted substantially through reconciliation, through consolidation, and through trade. As a result, you are seeing higher highs and higher lows.

Equally, that drop in 19% for 2023 is 60% higher than what we saw our previous record year, which was 2018 prior to 2021. It's 60% higher than what we did in 2018. In terms of the volumes, yep, it's coming off 19%, but the overall market is still incredibly strong, and there's a lot to be optimistic about in that space. Now, the other piece of that, when we look at Nucor Buildings Group, the Nucor Buildings Group does roughly about 10,000 buildings annually. Just our Nucor Buildings Group. Every one of those buildings has somewhere between four and 12 to 15 doors on every building. Well, now with C.H.I, it is an incredible marriage as they continue to grow their commercial end to tie in with that dealer network, with those businesses.

Then you think about the rest of the warehousing space with companies like Amazon, the gigafactories, the chip factories, and hopefully we'll see that pass here in Washington, D.C., and the CHIPS and Science Act and that incentive package supported to build and onshore and reshore American manufacturing. That is an incredible construction solution piece. Having C.H.I. now in the portfolio continues to differentiate Nucor as a one-stop differentiated supplier that can take care of all of the needs. That's how we're thinking about it as we move forward and the types of businesses Chad will be responsible for in the expand beyond category. Again, thank you, Chad. Steve, you wanna touch on sort of our CapEx for the balance of the year and how we're looking? Thank you.

Steve Laxton
CFO, Nucor Corporation

Absolutely. Hey, Carlos, how are you doing? This is Steve. You asked about capital for the remainder of the year, we have guided to a little more than $2 billion for the year. I'll give you that same outlook from what we said today. We've spent about $1 billion so far, so you can back into roughly $1 billion for the second half of the year. You'd ask about working capital. Working capital is obviously gonna vary where you believe steel pricing is gonna go across our system. I'll let you take the best guess at that. You probably know better than we do.

Carlos de Alba
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

All right, excellent. Well, thank you very much, and good luck.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Emily Chieng of Goldman Sachs.

Emily Chieng
VP and Head of the North Americas Metals & Mining Equity Research Team, Goldman Sachs

Good afternoon, Leon and Steve. My first question is just around the infrastructure package that should start to really accelerate in 2023. How much early demand are you seeing from that materialize this year? Perhaps what are the categories that are taking some of the early wins there?

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Yeah, thanks, Emily. Look, I would tell you that, you know, right now there's a lot of dialogue going on, but we're not seeing any real movement in terms of material orders. We really think that'll start in earnest in early 2023 and really begin to progress throughout the year 2023. While our teams, our divisions, businesses are ramping up and at the ready, I think we're still about six months out from really seeing that move through our company.

Emily Chieng
VP and Head of the North Americas Metals & Mining Equity Research Team, Goldman Sachs

Great. That makes sense. My follow-up is just on the steel mill side. You know, we've certainly been seeing a little bit more of a buyers' strike type of activity from on the customers' end as it relates to sort of hot-rolled. How are market participants acting now? Is there any sort of renewed or early signs of renewed appetite to reengage here?

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Yeah, look, I think so. Again, if we look at our most recent order books, you know, sheet strong, we're seeing some. Again, the word resiliency is the right word across the non-res construction businesses. You know, well, now in Nucor, that's 50% of our overall mix is into the construction sector. Us providing again a complete solution really is a differentiated value proposition. Yes, we are seeing again stable demand and growing in some cases, but it's, you know, it's certainly not without looking as well at some of the headwinds that are coming from an economy standpoint in the marketplace of interest rates and, you know, inflation. It's in supply chains and some of those constraints.

While those are real, the driving demand factors in our businesses, for the most part, remain very healthy. Automotive is a good example. If we could solve the chip shortage today, I think we're gonna crest well over 17 million units sold. While that's the forecast, so it's easier to say that, I truly believe that. I think the underlying demand, the consumer spending, appetite in this country still remains fairly high. Again, there's some things I think that will begin to loosen up and break loose, in the back half of this year and well into 2023 that will help in addition to the infrastructure, like getting a bit more caught up on the chips.

as Al mentioned, the offshore wind and what we saw President Biden recently announce in executive orders yesterday, that will continue to position Nucor well, will position Nucor's plate group and particularly Brandenburg in an incredible value add opportunity for our customers.

Emily Chieng
VP and Head of the North Americas Metals & Mining Equity Research Team, Goldman Sachs

Thanks, Leon. I appreciate the call.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Thanks, Emily.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, simply press the star key followed by the digit one on your telephone keypad. We'll now hear from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research.

Timna Tanners
Managing Director, Wolfe Research

Hey, good afternoon, guys.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Afternoon, Timna.

Timna Tanners
Managing Director, Wolfe Research

I wanted to ask two questions. One was to kind of probe what was discussed earlier on Gallatin a little bit more, and the other was to ask about follow-up to the garage door acquisition. So with regard to Gallatin, if I look at your sheet tons, you're running run rate less than a year ago levels. I know you made the comment that you'd tailor production to demand levels. How much of Gallatin was in the second quarter? Assuming demand allows, should we be seeing that 1.4, half of that flow through fully in the second half of the year? Just trying to square that with the volumes being lower year-over-year. Then the C.H.I. acquisition question. I just wanted to follow up.

I know you said that you were looking to shore up maybe more overhead garage doors. To kind of get more critical mass like you did with the tubulars, structural tubing in the past. Just wondering if you have any updated comments there. Thanks a lot.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Yeah. Let me start with the back half, and then Rex, I'll turn it over to you. Look, I think good questions on the Gallatin front of what we've seen today would be very little through the cycle of the overall volume, but I'll let Rex touch more on that. Regarding the C.H.I. acquisition, look, in our minds, we acquired the very best company out there in that space, period, bar none. Our opportunity really isn't to move or look for other large garage door companies. We are roughly operating about 60% total utilization with C.H.I. today. We have a lot of room to grow, and most of that 60% is concentrated sort of that mid USA levels.

The further out towards the coast you get, the market shares drop off a little bit. You have an opportunity, or we have an opportunity to really grow that business with what we have today. Now, there may be some things that we're looking at that I can't get into that would be very, very small, that might be complementary, but our eggs are in the C.H.I basket. Couldn't be more excited about Dave Sumoski and his leadership team, the entire C.H.I team, in welcoming them to the Nucor family and what they're doing in that business segment. We're proud of them already. We're proud of all the Nucor team members and the growth that they're gonna bring in the coming years is something incredibly exciting for us. Rex, you wanna touch on the Gallatin question?

Rex Query
EVP of Sheet and Tubular Products, Nucor Corporation

Yeah. Timna, I'll speak first. Let's speak about the first half of the year. We had some outages with Gallatin as we were installing its equipment. If you look as a group, if you took the first half of the year, we were running at a utilization above the 80% mark as a group. With the outages, we were a little bit under that at Gallatin, but we augmented that with other sheet mills in our group. That was how we handled that, took care of customers through supply from other mills. Now that the outage is complete, equipment's installed, our run rate will ramp up, and we're putting the equipment through its paces. We're doing a full thickness slab now on the new slab, 130 mm.

As we start to put the mill through its paces, we'll go wider and wider. That'll happen during the third quarter. Again, we'll have the capability. We absolutely expect in the fourth quarter to run at really nameplate capacity. You would look right at that three million ton run rate annualized. We'll gauge that to what the market's doing off of that.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

You know, Timna, where we sit, maybe a little more color. It'd probably be in the several hundred thousand ton range based on what we see today that we would produce between now and the end of the year and from the new expansion part of Gallatin.

Rex Query
EVP of Sheet and Tubular Products, Nucor Corporation

Correct.

Timna Tanners
Managing Director, Wolfe Research

Okay. Super. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate the color.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll hear from Michael Leshock of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Michael Leshock
VP and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, good afternoon. I wanted to follow up on your M&A commentary. It sounds like the C.H.I. side will be mostly organic growth from here, but do you see other opportunities to make downstream acquisitions, and how deep is your pipeline of potential targets right now?

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Yeah, Mike, thank you for the question. You know, when I took over in January of 2020, our eight-word mission statement is alive and well, and that's grow our core, expand beyond and live our culture. The live our culture piece is easy. It's delivering uncompromising results in every area of our business and doing that while maintaining the safety, health, and well-being of our team. The core is just that, the West Virginia mill, the Lexington micro mill, the expansions in Hickman and the new, you know, increases across in Kankakee and other core assets that we have.

This expansion beyond piece over the last two and a half years, driven really by Steve Laxton before he became CFO, and Alex Hoffman is really about finding those companies that provide a differentiated value proposition and moving us sort of that one standard deviation outside of the normal and traditional steelmaking lane that have a direct steel adjacency. Like C.H.I., offer you some insulation from the traditional cyclicality of steelmaking. Hannibal Industries is indeed doing that. Cornerstone in the insulated metal panel building business is doing that. The other side of it, and the other filter that we look for is how do we continue to provide sweeping solutions in construction, in energy, in automotive, so that when our commercial teams go and meet with the architects, engineers, owners, VCs, they can say, "We've got the entire solution for you.

You don't have to worry about doors or joists or deck or grading or anything else. We are a one-stop shop and can solve the entity and entirety of their steel needs." So the pipeline is rich. I think it'll get richer as we move forward. You know, for every downturn, Nucor's gotten stronger and continue to invest that, you know, our cash flow position, the profits we're generating today, put Nucor in an ideal position to continue to be very deliberate and very strategic with long-term goals to enhance our shareholder value.

Michael Leshock
VP and Equity Research Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Got it. Thank you.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

Okay, Michael. Thank you.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will turn the call back over to Leon for any additional or closing comments.

Leon Topalian
President and CEO, Nucor Corporation

I'd just like to congratulate our entire team again for a record first half of the year. Thank you for delivering on our mission and making 2022 the safest, cleanest, and most profitable year in our history. Thank you to our customers, and thank you for the trust that you placed in each and every one of our Nucor teams for your business. We will continue to work hard to earn that business well into the future. Finally, thank you to our shareholders for the trusted capital that you place in our hands. We continue to want to be great stewards and great, shepherds to return that valuable shareholder capital. Thank you for your interest in our company. Have a great day.

Operator

That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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