Hello everyone, it's a pleasure to be here today, and I'm happy to virtually connect with so many familiar faces at Nova's Investor and Analyst Day. My name is Miri Segal, and I'm the CEO of MS-IR. I'll begin with a personal note. I've had the privilege of consulting with Nova for over a dozen years, and it's truly exciting to be working alongside such a visionary and committed executive team, one that not only focuses on execution but also fully appreciates the importance of enhancing shareholder value. It's been a couple of years since our last successful Investor Day, when Nova's management first laid the groundwork for our ambitious goal of reaching a $1 billion revenue milestone. Since then, Nova has seen remarkable consistent growth. Beyond the numbers, one of Nova's impressive achievements has been a seamless executive transition.
Gaby Waisman has successfully succeeded Eitan Oppenheim as Nova's President and CEO, and Guy Kizner, following Dror David, was appointed CFO last year. This smooth transition underscores the strength and continuity plan of Nova's leadership, which is integral to the company's ongoing success. I'd like to outline what to expect during the next two hours. We'll kick off with presentations from Nova's executive team. We welcome your engagement, so please feel free to submit your questions throughout the event. We'll have a Q&A session after the presentations, and we'll do our best to address as many questions as time allows. Before we dive into the presentations, I will remind everyone that some of the information shared today may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor statement included in today's presentations, which also applies to this virtual event.
Now, I'm honored to hand it over to Nova's President and CEO, Gaby Waisman. Gaby, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Miri.
Thank you all for joining us. My name is Gaby Waisman. I am the CEO and President of Nova, and I will be hosting today's event. Over the past two years, since I assumed my new position at Nova, I had the privilege of meeting many of you in person, and I plan to continue doing so at upcoming events. Since 2022, when we held our last Investor Day, our industry went through significant changes, opening an entire host of new opportunities for Nova. There are a few things that have not changed, though. Nova's annual 2024 results, reported last month, demonstrated consistent market outperformance as we gained new market share and expanded our exposure. We always put our customers first as we continued to deliver our solutions, meeting an ever-increasing demand, regardless of regional and global challenges.
We continued to strive for business excellence while prioritizing our employees, suppliers, and stakeholders, and we have continued working together as a team to enhance shareholder value. Today, I stand before you, proud of our teams, thankful for the partnership with our customers, and humbled by your continued trust. Nova's management and board will continue to work diligently to justify this trust and deliver on our promise to the market. During the session today, we will share with you the recent developments in the market and our company. We'll talk about ESG strategy and about the market's current and future dynamic ecosystem. We will also review the company's exciting technology directions and finally share our updated financial framework and guidelines. With me today, I have Sharon Dayan, Zohar Gil, Shay Wolfling, and Guy Kizner.
Together, we will aim to cover everything you may be interested in, and we will leave some Q&A time at the end of our presentations. For those of you who are new to Nova, let me take a few minutes to introduce the company. First, our main goal is to deliver metrology and process control solutions, which means that we can deliver highly accurate dimensional, material, and chemical measurements throughout the fabrication of advanced chips that are created on silicon wafers. Our technology supports the measurement of small devices in a sub-angstrom environment, in other words, less than one-tenth billionth of a meter. We provide our customers with process control insight that increases yield and reduces time to market. We approach process control from two different angles. On the one hand, we shine light, or X-ray beam, onto a wafer.
Using a reflection, we measure the dimensional and material properties of the transistor. On the other hand, we employ chemical analysis methods to analyze exact components in the production process. Using Nova's solutions, our customer can tell in real time whether the manufacturing process is performing as intended. We also use our advanced software to combine physical modeling with AI models to extract better results from the hardware and predict the range of the next measurement. Why is process control so crucial to our industry? 3D architectures translate into multiple catalysts for our business, including larger, more complex dies that require a growing number of wafers. They also mean increasingly smaller dimensions, complex materials, and a leap in the number of process steps at a much smaller tolerance for error. Our portfolio today is remarkably diverse, spanning every critical market segment, from advanced nodes to mature ones.
This comprehensive range allows us to meet the evolving needs of the semiconductor industry, addressing cutting-edge applications like AI and high-performance computing, as well as more established technologies. Just a few years ago, our portfolio was much narrower, with limited exposure to advanced packaging and a smaller selection of products. Since then, we've made significant strides and expanded our offering. As you can see, we are now positioned across multiple segments with a broad presence. This transformation has solidified our position as an industry leader, empowering us to provide tailored solutions across a broad range of semiconductor fabrication lines. Since 2022, our install base has reached 6,400 active systems in customer fabs. To support our customers, our global footprint has expanded to 31 sites, including offices, labs, cleanrooms, and warehouses. Our production capacity has grown by 80%, and we are actively working on further increasing it by 2026.
Let me take you on a brief journey to our facilities around the globe for an exclusive behind-the-scenes peek. How is Nova doing in this ever-changing environment? We ended 2024 on a high note, with record revenue and profitability. Our revenues grew 30% year over year and reached $672.4 million, while non-GAAP net income grew 38%. In fact, since 2020, our revenue has grown at a CAGR of 26%, while our profitability grew even more at a CAGR of 35%. Our agile operational model and strategic focus continue to generate value to our shareholders, enabling us to drive higher profitability while consistently growing our business. Over the past few years, we have steadily met our targets, successfully doubling our company's revenue every four to five years on average. This achievement has been driven by our robust technical foundations and our strong organizational culture, which is centered around our people.
It was also driven by an unwavering commitment to our strategic goals, which we have executed with precision. Looking ahead, our strategic plan is to continue this momentum and double our annual revenue by 2027 compared to 2022. One of the ways in which we strategically build a diversified revenue stream is by ensuring we have a broad exposure to the industry to capture opportunities. You can see that we are right where we need to be, as the industry is poised to increase investments in advanced logic and advanced packaging in 2025. When looking at advanced versus mature nodes, our revenues are skewed towards advanced nodes across memory and logic. This is where there is obviously an intense need for advanced process control of the kind we can provide. I assume that this slide and the forecasted growth of our industry is not new to you.
Yes, AI-related demand has been a significant driver of our market, and AI ramps up demand for energy-efficient computing power and for advanced processing, memory, and packaging solutions. The expected CAGR of AI Semi alone is encouraging, but there are additional growth engines in place, such as automotive, mobile, and industrial applications. To meet this demand, wafer capacity is expected to grow by more than 60% by 2030, with more than 75 new fabs being added. The combined impact of increased capacity and increased process complexity spells out a significant growth of our total addressable market. Zohar will expand on these in his presentation. The increasing complexity of advanced nodes drives the demand for high-quality metrology solutions, and Nova is well-positioned to meet this need. The value we provide is clear, as demonstrated by the adoption of our portfolio among the top five CapEx investors in our industry.
Over the past several years, we have cemented our position across multiple device segments, achieving milestones across our product lines. These include strategic penetrations into leading manufacturers, an evolving position in emerging segments, and capturing an increasing market share. Our chemical metrology solutions have been adopted by all top five players for front-end or back-end applications. Our integrated metrology solutions have been adopted by advanced packaging by four of the top five players and are currently in advanced evaluation by the fifth. Finally, our unique inline Raman and SIMS solutions have been adopted or accepted by three of these leading customers for their advanced logic and memory processes. Shay will expand in his presentation about the unique technology we provide our customers. We continue to outperform the industry by leveraging a differentiated portfolio and embracing ongoing diversification.
By maintaining and expanding our leadership in dimensional, materials, and chemical metrology, we ensure organic growth and sustained market dominance. Our strategic focus on leadership in materials, coupled with strengthening our position in dimensional technologies, allows us to effectively address evolving industry needs. We are driving the adoption of new disruptive products, such as Metrion and Elipson, ensuring that we stay at the forefront of innovation. At the same time, we're expanding into adjacent markets like packaging, broadening our market reach. Our growth strategy is further bolstered by strategic mergers and acquisitions, which enhance our capabilities and deepen our penetration into key focus areas. This multifaceted approach ensures we remain a leader in the semiconductor industry. Here are a couple of examples of how we continue to diversify our offering. First, with a recent addition of Sentronics, we expect our position in the advanced packaging segment to become even stronger.
Sentronics' dimensional metrology will enable us to diversify our offering into the rapidly growing field of advanced wafer-level packaging and specialty devices. This acquisition also opens the door to new customers with additional wafer sizes and types and beyond 300-millimeter production lines, additionally increasing our total addressable market. Sentronics builds highly modular, multi-sensor platforms with proprietary sensors and software that extend the range of applications we can solve. It complements our optical CD standalone offering for critical applications. In 2025, we will launch the i580, the next generation of our leading integrated metrology solution. This new platform will enhance our dominance in integrated metrology for CMP, delivering the fastest and most advanced capabilities available. The i580 will broaden our application range and introduce a new era of wafer edge metrology in an age when increasing yield at the wafer edge is a key requirement for our customers.
This new platform allows for the monitoring of thickness profiles and effectivity at the wafer edge, which is crucial for wafer bonding. The i580 signifies a major leap in our metrology capabilities, offering unmatched precision and efficiency, and we are excited to bring it into market. With all this in mind, we want to share an update to our five-year plan, which we introduced in 2022. In our previous plan, we expected to reach an annual revenue of $1 billion that included approximately $150 million-$200 million of inorganic growth. We now expect to reach this goal organically. This revision is driven by our strong performance, strategic investments, and the successful execution of our growth initiatives. By leveraging our innovative product portfolio, expanding into new markets, and enhancing our operational efficiencies, we are confident in our ability to reach this new goal.
Naturally, pending investment timing, regulation, and market cyclicality, this may happen sooner. We see an upside to this updated model, driven by increased demand for our products and inorganic growth. Guy will address this in his presentation. This updated plan underscores our commitment to delivering exceptional value to our shareholders and positioning ourselves for sustained long-term growth. Everything we tell you here today is based on numbers and data, but for me, Nova is much more than the sum of its numbers. Nova is our unwavering commitment to innovation, our people-first culture, and our focus on talent and sustainability. Innovation is our core, driving us to develop groundbreaking solutions that set us apart in the industry. Our people-first culture creates an environment where talent is nurtured and retained, and we are deeply committed to embedding sustainability in our facilities and products.
This holistic approach not only sets us apart, we believe it is inherent to our success. Now, I'm pleased to introduce you to Sharon Dayan, our Chief Human Resources Officer, who will delve deeper into our ESG strategy. Sharon?
Hello everyone. My name is Sharon Dayan, and I'm the Chief Human Resources Officer at Nova. I also own Nova's ESG chapter, and I'm excited to share with you today the story of our ESG commitment from vision to impact. Nova's products provide our customers with better insights into their production processes and allow them to overcome challenges that reshape reality. The same philosophy of seeing the unseen, of innovation, is at the heart of our approach towards environmental, social, and governance activities. We understand that success goes beyond financial excellence and customer satisfaction.
We believe that our business performance is tightly connected with our ethical and responsible conduct and our people-first culture. Our culture is based on open communication, close teamwork, and we encourage our employees to think in, out, and around the box. By doing this, we foster a space where our employees are seen, heard, and feel safe to challenge the status quo. Their direct perspectives are the key to bold innovation. Our ESG journey is a natural extension of our culture, reflecting our core values, priorities, and commitments. In 2023, we published Nova's first ESG review, where we aligned priorities and introduced guidelines such as governance, compliance, and carbon footprint. Our next updated report, with a review of the implemented plans and achievements, will be published in 2025. We have already set out to publish a third report in 2027. An organization's ESG strategy has standard pillars of action.
At Nova, we view them as a part of what makes us different. We view governance as our compass to ethical conduct and inherent strength. We see people first as the foundation of our social strategy and our secret sauce, and we take the environment as our obligation to future generations. We work to instill value-based guidelines to our employees, our supply chain, and our partners. Now, let me share a bit more insight into each of these areas. We have always valued integrity and transparency. By implementing those policies and procedures, we build trust and contribute to the well-being of our stakeholders. Our governance policies are implemented and enforced globally. We review and adjust them according to relevant rules and regulations. Our leadership is comprised of an independent and professional board made of seasoned industry executives who also sit on board committees.
For example, the compensation committee that ensures management compensation is tied to performance and accounts for investors' capital returns. Nova also employs a professional CEO with deep knowledge of our business and industry. I head the ESG committee that meets on a regular basis and reports to the CEO. We ensure business ethics implementation and provide training on crucial policies such as the company's code of conduct, anti-bribery, and whistleblower policies. Finally, we have a comprehensive set of plans and means to protect the intellectual property and data of Nova, our customers and stakeholders. Let's face it, talent is a critical cornerstone of our industry, and it is in short supply. We prioritize our people-first approach because we firmly believe that each person is unique, has their own spark, and has the ability to make an impact.
This is Nova's DNA, our secret sauce, which is also crucial to attracting and retaining top talent. We aim to inspire a similar philosophy in our suppliers and communities. This strategy has more than proven itself. More than 25% of all open positions are filled through internal mobility, including 50% of leadership positions. We have women present in every technical and sales position, from country manager to service engineer, and 33% of our board directors are women. The most telling indicator is that in 2024, we achieved a retention rate of 95%. In our community outreach, we focus on direct involvement, supporting long-term strategic projects that empower underprivileged youth, promote STEM education, and advocate for women's empowerment. At our key sites, we make science and technology accessible to young people, inspiring the next generation to pursue careers in STEM.
Each of our community partnerships lasts between two to five years. We encourage employee-led initiatives, and this approach has proven to be successful, with more than 40% volunteer participation. Over the past years, we have fortified our obligation to the environment and to a sustainable and resilient future. We prioritize those issues by setting measurable targets, ensuring transparency, and integrating environmental consideration into all business decisions. In our facilities management, we build with sustainability in mind. The latest example is the new building in Bad Urach, Germany. This new property is designed with the most advanced sustainable elements, such as geothermal heating and cooling systems, solar panels, and an advanced water management system. We have also integrated multiple elements into our product design processes. For example, we prefer recycled materials, energy-efficient components, and minimize waste where possible. One of our recently launched chemical metrology products, the Nova DMR, does even more.
Integrated with the Nova Equalizer system, it is the only inline direct metal replenishment solution. It enables our customers to minimize waste and extend the batch life in the production process. At Nova, our ESG strategy reflects our commitment to seeing what others overlook, whether in technology, people, or the environment. By fostering belonging and security within our teams and communities, we empower individuals to amplify this ethos of inclusion and care. We actively listen to employees, customers, and partners, creating a cycle of insight that fuels innovation and meaningful change that generates ripples of influence. Now, let me hand things over to Zohar, who will talk about our market. Zohar?
Thank you, Sharon, and good day, everyone. My name is Zohar Gil, and I'm Nova's Chief Marketing Officer.
In my talk today, I will share how the instrumental changes we see in the market today and in the future are holding unprecedented opportunities for Nova. Let me start with the key messages of my talk. Over the next five years, the semiconductor market is poised for accelerated growth driven by artificial intelligence and additional growth engines. We are witnessing major technology inflections across all device segments, which are reshaping the landscape of our industry. To meet the surging market demand, the semiconductor capital equipment market will require significant capacity increases and elevated CapEx levels. This growth will be accompanied by a continued rise in metrology and process control intensity. Nova is well positioned to capitalize on these trends, leveraging our unique and differentiated product portfolio to continue our growth trajectory and outperform the market.
Moving to the market review, the semiconductor market is on track to grow by over 50% in the next five years, reaching the $1 trillion mark towards the end of the decade. A key driver of this growth is AI, which is expected to exceed $200 billion in semiconductor revenue by 2028. The largest foundry, TSMC, forecasts an impressive AI CAGR of 45% over the next five years. In addition to AI, traditional industry drivers such as automotive, mobile, data centers, and IoT remain robust, contributing to the overall market expansion. The accelerated growth in semiconductor revenue will translate into double-digit growth across all device segments. Advanced logic, memory, and advanced packaging are set to experience the highest growth rates. By 2029, 2.5D and 3D packaging is expected to account for 40% of total packaging revenues, surpassing flip chip revenues for the first time.
Additionally, high bandwidth memory revenue is projected to make up 35% of the total DRAM revenues by 2028. These trends highlight the transformative impact of key growth drivers on various IC semiconductor device segments. To support this accelerated growth, the semiconductor industry will need to significantly expand its manufacturing capacity. Over the next decade, we anticipate an accumulated CapEx of over $2 trillion. The yearly average growth rate in manufacturing capacity over the next five years will more than double the capacity growth seen in the previous decade. This expansion translates into the addition of 25 memory fabs with 100,000 wafer starts per month and 60 logic and specialty fabs with 50,000 wafer starts per month. Such substantial investments are crucial to meeting the increasing demand for semiconductor devices. From a process technology perspective, the industry must continue to innovate to keep Moore's Law alive.
Higher device density, enhanced performance, energy efficiency, and lower costs are essential goals. Achieving these requires ongoing investments in new architectures, advanced materials, improved connectivity, and heterogeneous integrations. These efforts will ensure that we can meet the growing demand for the semiconductor market while maintaining the pace of technological advancements. Looking at the industry technology roadmap, the next decade will bring multiple technology inflections across all device segments. These advancements are increasing the device complexity and driving greater metrology and process control intensity, underscoring the need for innovative solutions to manage these challenges. Here are some of these advancements. In logic, the transition to gate- all- around and CFET structure to support energy efficiency. In DRAM, the move towards 4F square high-density cell architecture and eventually to vertical 3D DRAM. In NAND, continued increases in layer stacking and shift from multi-deck to multi-stack architectures.
In packaging, the adoption of 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies using heterogeneous integration and chiplet architectures is accelerating. Across all device structures, 3D stacking and hybrid bonding technologies are becoming fundamental. With this understanding, I now want to describe the growth in our addressable markets and the opportunities in the key device segments starting from advanced logic. In the domain of advanced logic, the transition from FinFET to gate- all- around architecture introduces more process steps, new material, and increased device structural complexity. The shift introduces more dimensional and material metrology steps such as individual CDs, multi-layer buried elements, thin films on structure, and unique material property measurements. Additionally, backside power delivery, which utilizes nano TSVs and wafer bonding, adds process steps and opens new opportunities in all three metrology domains.
One example is the increase in copper plating, which proportionally increases the need for chemical metrology with tighter process and contamination control. In addition, we see a growing need for metrology and process control at the edge of the wafer, driven by the adoption of wafer bonding processes. Shay and I will expand on the importance of wafer edge metrology later in this presentation. Overall, we see an increase of up to 50% in the quantity and diversity of metrology steps in advanced logic in the coming years, proportionally increasing the addressable market. Turning to advanced memory, we're addressing both DRAM and NAND technologies. In advanced DRAM nodes, the transition to FinFET with high K metal gates in the periphery and the use of high -k dielectric materials in the cell capacitor drive the need for extended CD metrology and more significantly materials metrology opportunities.
These have already proven highly successful in the logic segment. As DRAM transitions to 3D, it will continue its vertical growth using hybrid bonding technology, following the path of 3D NAND, which will grow even higher into multi-deck structures. These technological inflections amplify the need for high aspect ratio, critical dimensions, and better contamination control using materials and chemical metrology for electroplating and deposition processes. It will also accelerate the adoption of multiple hybrid bonding metrology applications. Overall, we see the metrology opportunity and addressable market doubling as we move to next-generation memory devices in the coming years. In advanced packaging, 2.5D and 3D packaging architectures present numerous opportunities, particularly in dimensional metrology and chemical metrology. High bandwidth memory and heterogeneous integration with chiplets will require extensive interconnect metrology for TSVs, RDLs, and more.
The utilization of hybrid bonding will expand, taking over 3D memories and 3D system on chips, necessitating robust pre- and post-bonding metrology technologies in both wafer-to-wafer and die-to-wafer processes. Additionally, the multi-step packaging processes, which involve different plating, metals, and chemistries, are already expanding the scope of chemical metrology. Overall, we see the metrology opportunity and addressable market growing significantly and reaching $600 million in the coming years. Moving to mature nodes, we will continue to see a growing number of applications that require these technology nodes driven by market growth engines such as automotive, IoT, sensors, and industrial applications. The transition to heterogeneous integration and chiplet technologies will further support the increased use of mature nodes in advanced applications. Revenue from mature logic is expected to grow at 10% CAGR in the coming years.
The CapEx, which has significantly increased over the last five years, will remain at elevated levels to support the growing capacity demand. As we summarize the metrology opportunities across various device segments, it is clear that our total addressable market is expected to grow significantly. We anticipate our solutions' addressable market will reach the $4 billion mark by 2027. This growth is driven by the increasing complexity and demand for advanced metrology solutions in logic, memory, and packaging segments. Our innovative technologies are well positioned to capture this expanding market, providing critical insights and control for semiconductor manufacturing processes. In the last part of my talk, I will review Nova's portfolio, highlight recent and upcoming new product introduction, explain our product strategy, and link it to our future growth. Moving to our product portfolio, we offer a unique range of dimensional materials and chemical metrology solutions.
In dimensional metrology, we are the market leader in integrated metrology for CMP and hold the second largest market share for optical CD and film metrology. Our differentiated solutions, utilizing spectral interferometry technologies, set us apart and enable critical applications, which Shay will highlight later in his presentation. With the addition of Sentronics, we have broadened our metrology offering for the advanced packaging markets. In the material metrology segments, our comprehensive portfolio addresses the growing need to control and measure material attributes such as composition and composition profiling, thickness, stress and strain, and more. These solutions are critical for both R&D and high-volume manufacturing and lead to enhanced device functionality and manufacturing yields, as well as shorter time to solutions. In the chemical metrology segments, our modular solutions leverage cutting-edge chemical analysis techniques.
These techniques analyze the chemical composition of materials in electrochemical plating baths across back-end wafer-level packaging and front-end dual damascene processes. In the next few slides, I will highlight some of our unique and upcoming solutions. First, in 2025, we will introduce the i580, the next generation of our flagship integrated metrology solutions. This new platform delivers significant technology improvements. It will extend our leadership in integrated metrology for CMP, offering the fastest and most advanced capabilities in the market. The i580 will also expand our application space and usher in a new era of bevel inspection in wafer edge metrology. This innovation enables the monitoring of thickness profiles and effectivity on the wafer edge, which is critical for all wafer bonding processes. The i580 represents a significant advancement in our metrology capabilities, providing unparalleled precision and efficiency.
With the recent addition of Sentronics to Nova, we now offer a comprehensive and diversified portfolio for the rapidly growing segment of advanced packaging and specialty devices. We estimate this adds between $100 million-$200 million to our addressable markets annually. The Sentronics multi-sensor metrology platform, including the SemDex and the new WMC platform, expands our presence into a broader range of applications and wafer sizes. These platforms support wafers from 150 to 300 millimeters, highly warped and framed wafers, and panel-level packaging. They also introduce new applications such as total thickness variation, wafer-shape metrology, and micron and nanometer-level topography. This expansion underscores our commitment to addressing the evolving needs of the semiconductor industry with innovative solutions. Our unique material metrology solutions set industry standards and drive innovation. The VeraFlex platform is the industry standard for thickness and composition measurement in both R&D and high-volume manufacturing.
It is the preferred tool of record at the top five IC manufacturers and by many others. Additionally, our Metrion and Elipson platforms offer unique inline solutions for materials metrology in R&D and high-volume manufacturing, utilizing SIMS and Raman spectroscopy. Each platform has already been adopted and qualified by three of the top five IC manufacturers worldwide and is in the process of broader market adoption by additional leading manufacturers. We continue to invest in R&D to push forward the performance of these solutions to the limit, ensuring that we remain at the forefront of material metrology technology. As the global commitment to sustainability intensifies, major players in our industry, such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, are setting ambitious sustainability goals and actively working towards them. These goals include significant waste reduction, increased recycling rates, and achieving zero waste to landfill by 2030.
Public statements from these companies highlight their dedication and green manufacturing and sustainability operations. On the right side of the slide, we highlight our unique process control and replenishment solutions as a prime example of how our chemical metrology solutions support these sustainability goals. Our Equalizer and DMR platforms utilize non-reagent techniques and smart replenishment solutions to reduce chemical usage, extend bath lifetimes, and minimize waste. These innovations align with the industry's zero waste and recycling objectives, helping our customer achieve their sustainability targets while reducing their total cost of ownership. Looking at the elements of our product strategy, we are committed to investing back into R&D, allocating 50% of our revenue for this purpose. This rate puts us at the top of our industry and 20%-30% higher than our peers.
The substantial investment aims to secure continued leadership of our flagship products, enhance our support and the market adoption of our new technology platforms, and accelerate the development and market introduction of new pathfinding technologies. To complement the organic evolution, our inorganic product strategy targets complementary technologies such as materials, emerging metrology and cross-control solutions, and adjacent high-growth market segments. This dual approach ensures that we remain at the forefront of innovation and market leadership. To summarize my presentation, over the past five years, Nova has outperformed the industry indices and peer performance with exceptional growth. Looking ahead, we see a healthy semiconductor end market with major technology inflections on the horizon. CapEx and metrology intensity are expected to grow, and Nova, with its unique and strategic approach, is well positioned to continue this growth trajectory and outperform the market.
Our commitment to innovation, sustainability, and strategic investments will drive our success in the coming years. I want to invite Shay Wolfling to discuss Nova's proven solutions for IC manufacturing challenges. Shay?
Thank you, Zohar. Good day, everyone. I'm Shay Wolfling, Nova's CTO for the past 13 years. In my presentation today, I will review some of the chip manufacturing implications of the AI revolution and Nova's proven solution to address these challenges. In my review, I will elaborate on the critical role of semiconductor chips playing in the AI revolution. To continue meeting the increased demand for performance, semiconductor manufacturing is undergoing various key transitions across several device segments. These transitions, or trends, create significant manufacturing and process control challenges.
As I review these trends in each of logic, memory, and advanced packaging, I will focus on some of Nova's proven, unique solutions for the key challenges today and going forward. As Zohar mentioned, AI and the associated hardware are key drivers of the current semiconductor growth. However, the growth of semiconductor content extends far beyond the direct AI hardware server needs. AI acts as a catalyst for many business applications, including agriculture, industry, robotics, health, connectivity, autonomous vehicles, and IoT. With AI becoming more affordable, it will proliferate to even more applications, driving additional usage and increased IC content. Semiconductor devices must enable this increased content, functionality, and connectivity. The roadmap evolution of AI-centric chips has demonstrated significant growth in the last decade.
If we focus on a few AI chips and GPUs from NVIDIA over the last five years, we see that their performance, which is critical for the ever-growing AI and large language model tasks, is growing exponentially. Based on published data, if we compare the 2020 A100 chip to the B100, we can see that the number of equivalent cores of CUDA has risen by a factor of 21, while the total number of transistors has grown over four times, reaching over 200 billion transistors. This hardware growth has enabled a chip that can run 7,200 terafloating operations per second, 11 x more than just five years ago. As far as we see, both these hardware and performance trends continue with the next models.
When you see the magnitude of AI application, you should remember that this revolution could not have happened without the huge progress in semiconductor manufacturing technologies across all device segments. A typical AI data center has multiple advanced IC components. The AI processor or computation engine requires the most advanced logic, which is now FinFET, but already moving to Gate-All- Around. The memory part includes multiple non-volatile memory units of the newest 3D NAND chips, each with over 30 TB of memory, as well as the DRAM volatile memory, which is built in HBM architecture. Of course, advanced packaging technologies connect all the elements together: the memory, GPU, and CPU.
The manufacturing complexity of these new chips creates a multitude of process and process control challenges, including the need for more process steps with tighter control windows, the need for complex 3D architecture and the introduction of new materials, the criticality of the wafer edge for increased yield and bonding reliability, and a multitude of challenges due to the new advanced packaging schemes. In the next slides, I will highlight the past and expected future progress in critical elements of logic, memory, and packaging, and note some of the key semiconductor innovations that enable them. For each segment, I will present AGM examples of unique Nova solutions addressing key manufacturing challenges. The advancement of logic technology is one of the main enablers of the dramatic increase in the performance of modern chips.
Historically, lateral scaling, called Moore's Law, has played a key role in the constant reduction of the cost per transistor and thus de facto increasing the performance. In the last decade, however, logic performance has been driven by novel 3D dimensional architecture, FinFET, and now the Gate-All- Around, together with the added backside power delivery. In addition, and as important is the impact of materials on the evolution of the logic roadmap, starting from high-k metal gate for precise VT control, silicon-germanium scale fill, and precise engineering of SiGe boron source and drain of the emerging Gate-All- Around devices. Precise control of the germanium content and boron doping is essential to achieve the desired strain, to ensure low contact resistance, and enable high drive current. These are key performance metrics in advanced technology nodes.
Looking into the future with forksheet, CFET, and even 2D materials, it seems that the logic roadmap is visible for the next decade, but it is paved with a variety of new dimensional and material-related challenges. I will now present two challenges in Nova metrology solutions used in the manufacturing of advanced logic devices. In each use case that I will show, I will start from the challenge on the left side, highlighting the device segments and the type of challenge, and then present the Nova solution and utilized technology. The first example is the epitaxial growth in the source drain, which is a critical step in the logic Gate-All- Around. Precise control of the doping concentration is essential to achieve the desired strain and minimize defect, as well as to ensure low contact resistance and high drive current, determining the transistor performance.
Using the Metrion inline SIMS, we accurately monitor the material depth profile of the nanosheet structure at a 2 nanometer logic node. The bottom CN graph is the germanium depth profile concentration, and the top three graphs are the phosphorus doping depth profile at three different nanosheet widths. At certain design parameters, such as shown in the CN graph of reduced nanosheet widths, this depth profile analysis indicates a critical failure where the source drain is not connecting to the nanosheet. For such a case, device performance will be severely impacted. The second logic challenge is answered by Nova's newest integrated metrology product, the i580. In the era of stacked wafers and devices, controlling the wafer edge for profile thickness and effectivity is critical for a high-quality bonding process in all process segments. Due to the high cost of the wafer at this stage, high wafer sampling is required.
Therefore, integrated metrology, which has access to 100% of the process wafers, is the ideal vehicle for such monitor and control. We've identified this opportunity and are including in Nova's i580 integrated metrology, beyond the enhanced OCD metrology and productivity, also control capabilities of the wafer edge via innovative imaging technology. This new metrology enables detecting defects in wafer chipping for CMP layers, monitoring EBR shifts that will harm subsequent processing of bonding steps, and measuring thickness profile at the edge of the wafer. This i580 solution is in various qualification stages with our leading partners, providing high value for wafer edge control. These are only two of Nova's solutions for logic-centric challenges. Next, I would like to share some of our innovation around the growing need for memory power. Fast and dense memory is required to support the increasing number of operations per second of AI chips.
Key advancements in DRAM technology have been driven by lateral scaling and introduction of novel high-k dielectric materials, which allow for thinner layers, increased bit density, faster performance, and improved power efficiency. In addition, recently, advanced packaging has allowed the creation of high-bandwidth memory by packaging multiple DRAM memory chips. This is done today with the help of TSV and microbumps and moving gradually to hybrid bonding of multiple chips. The next inflection of DRAM is the transition to a more compact 4F square configuration and then to a disruptive 3D DRAM architecture for further improved density, bandwidth, and power efficiency. To enable this transition, tighter dimensional control of complex structures, as well as of silicon-germanium material properties, are required. One key ingredient in the DRAM growth is the roadmap of TSV, which involves scaling to allow denser interconnects.
TSV technology is one of the main cornerstones of advanced packaging and is widely used in the manufacturing of AI chips, HBMs, image sensors, and other products. A key challenge of TSV scaling is the uniform edge of high-aspect ratio TSV in complex structures, requiring tight control of their depth and profile. It is also required to enable the measurements of isolated TSVs surrounded by complex structures of transistor and local interconnects. Nova's unique spectral interferometry technology can provide direct and fast measurement of all the required profile parameters of the most challenging TSVs, including the depth of the TSV and the asymmetry of the TSV bottom. The Prism capability is further enhanced by the VTS algorithm, which, by directly correlating with geometrical features, effectively measures scaled-down TSV in complex structures on real production wafers.
In recent years, one of the primary strategies to maintain the de facto Moore's Law has been through advanced packaging technologies. Also, in this area, innovation in materials and dimension are crucial, enabling a continuous increase in the I/O density of emerging platforms. In this advanced technology, it is highly critical to control the TSV profile and material quality filling, the overall wafer thickness and topography variation, and especially the wafer edge. Looking ahead, improved process control is essential for the widespread adoption of hybrid bonding beyond silicon and organic interposer, including wafer-to-wafer and die-to-wafer bonding, as well as the emerging trends of chip-on-wafer and co-packaged optics. I will now present two challenges and metrology solutions by Nova related to advanced packaging. Continuing with TSV, once it is etched, another key challenge revolves around its plating, required to create a uniform void-free TSV filled with copper.
A key element impacting the electroplating quality is the tight control of the chemical components in the plating bath. For example, to ensure that the copper bath is maintained in tight control, online analysis of the organic and inorganic components is being done by Nova's chemical metrology solution. We use a variety of technologies, including spectroscopy, mainly for metals, chemical titration, and CVS, to measure the accelerator, suppressor, and leveler materials within the bath. It is important to highlight that our chemical metrology advancement also helps to enhance sustainability by minimizing the use of chemicals and reducing chemical waste. A crucial factor in enabling high-power computing chips for AI is the placement of large logic dies alongside high-bandwidth memory stacks, which presents a major packaging challenge.
Control of total layer thickness, as well as the thickness of each individual component involved, is critical, as tolerances are getting tighter with the ever-increasing number of components. Such thickness control, as well as wafer warpage, needs to be done at multiple process steps, including pre- and post-bonding, grinding, polishing, debonding, and dicing. Nova's new acquisition of Sentronics addresses this challenge. Sentronics' unique scanning coherent interferometry, which can be applied to both the top and bottom of the wafer, enables high throughput and high precision thickness measurement of multiple layers at once. Such tight control is obtained via full wafer maps with thousands of points generated simultaneously with surface and layer information. It is also important to recognize that handling this special wafer is a significant challenge, crucial for any comprehensive packaging solution. As you have seen, semiconductor process innovation and inflection create a multitude of process control challenges.
I have listed in this summary slide a few of these key challenges. From a dimensional perspective, challenges include characterization of high-aspect ratio structures, as well as the topography and thickness variation, which are critical for the bonding processes. Better control of the wafer edge is also critical for reliable wafer bonding. From a material and chemical perspective, we see an increasing need to tightly control the material properties in line. These include composition and stress measured on wafer, as well as chemical properties of the material before they are deposited. In some cases, the control challenges involve both dimensional and material aspects, such as local variability, interface properties between layers, as well as material thickness and composition conformality along challenging dimensions.
As you have seen in Zohar's part, Nova has a wide diversified portfolio with unique technology, both for material metrology, Raman, XPS, SIMS, as well as the Equalizer, Ancosys, and DMR for chemical metrology. Our solution for dimensional metrology comprises integrated metrology, including the new i580, as well as standalone metrology, including the unique Prism capability. The recent addition of Sentronics enhances our advanced packaging dimensional offering in topography and thickness process control. Now that I have reviewed the critical role of Nova's proven solution, let us talk about our future technological direction, which continues to evolve at a high pace. We continue to expand the measurement capability of both our dimensional and material metrology technologies by developing unique sources and detectors. For the material metrology technology, we are continuously improving productivity and metrology capability to further enhance their proliferation into high-volume manufacturing.
Additionally, our advancements in chemical metrology are focused on enhancing sustainability by minimizing chemical waste. Our commitment to sustainability extends beyond chemical metrology, as we invest in more eco-friendly solutions across our entire product roadmap. In complex 3D architecture, dimensional and material properties are closely connected. By leveraging AI and our proprietary physics-based algorithm, we address both challenges simultaneously. This example, published in collaboration with Samsung, demonstrates the combined use of Raman and OCD techniques for inline thickness monitoring. Lastly, we are continuously expanding our advanced packaging capabilities in multiple areas. This includes innovation in integrated metrology, new capabilities of the Prism technology, and enhancing the latest capabilities from Sentronics. To summarize my part of the day, we saw that the key AI trends are enabled by advancements in logic, memory, and 3D packaging architectures.
These advancements bring with them new dimensional and material innovations, which create a multitude of process control challenges across all device segments. Nova's current and future solutions are highly differentiated, creating a technology portfolio that is well-suited for the exponential growth of the industry going forward. Thank you very much, and with that, I would like to invite Guy Kizner to discuss Nova's financial strengths and long-term growth. Guy?
Good day, everyone. I'm Guy Kizner, and I'm excited to be here today. I've been in the CFO role for almost a year now, but my journey with the company started back in 2010. Back then, our annual revenue was about $90 million. Today, it's nearly eight times that size. It's amazing to see how far we've come, how we scaled, evolved, and continue to seize new opportunities.
You just heard from Gaby, Zohar, Sharon, and Shay about our strategy, market positioning, and technology. I want to translate all of that into what it means for our financial performance, how we are driving growth and profitability, and how we are thinking about capital allocation to create long-term value. At the end of the day, our goal is clear: sustainable, profitable growth with financial discipline. Before we get into details, here is what I am going to cover today. First, we will look at our historical value creation, how we scaled our business, driven profitability, and built a strong financial foundation. Then, we will shift to our building blocks that will drive our future success, the key elements that will drive our next phase of growth. Finally, I will cover our updated financial target model. Let us dive in.
Nova's success is built on a clear strategy, investing in the right areas and executing with discipline. Through investment in technology, strong customer relationships, and the right acquisitions, we've been able to scale the business and double our revenues every four to five years, outpacing the market. The numbers speak for themselves. Since 2019, our growth has been more than twice the pace of wafer fab equipment and significantly ahead of both investments in process control and optical metrology. This gap highlights our ability to capture market share, expand our leadership, and execute on the right opportunities. This performance isn't just about market trends; it's about execution. We've constantly positioned ourselves ahead of industry growth, enhancing our competitive edge through innovation and strategic investments. Growth is important, but what truly sets us apart is our ability to translate that growth into profitability.
Since 2020, our earnings per share has more than tripled, reflecting both our strong top-line expansion and disciplined execution. Our gross margin is one of the best in class compared to our peers, a testament to the high value our products and solutions deliver to customers. We see this impact extending to our operating margins as well, which has improved by eight points since 2020 and by two points since 2022. Importantly, this profitability translates into strong cash generation. Our cash reserves have grown to $820 million, up from $529 million in 2022. This result shows that we are not just growing faster, but we are doing it in the right way: profitably, efficiently, and with a long-term value creation in mind. At the end of the day, our performance is about creating real value for our shareholders.
Our strong execution, disciplined investments, and focus on profitability have all translated into consistent and significant shareholder returns. Since 2020, our total shareholder return has reached more than 550%, far outpacing major benchmarks. Our focus remains the same: delivering sustainable growth, expanding profitability, and driving long-term returns for our investors. Talking about past performance is nice, but we are here to focus on the future. The real question is, what will drive the same level of excellence and strong results going forward? We have a clear path to continue our momentum, and to do that, I want to walk you through a few building blocks that will shape our future success. Let's go into the details. Innovation is at the core of everything we do. We believe it is the most crucial factor in driving our growth, both today and in the future.
That's why we invest more than 15% of our revenue in R&D, significantly more than our peers. These investments translate into disruptive innovation that help us gain market share, like the SI channel on the Prism, or even open entirely new metrology spaces, as we did with Elipson and Metrion. On top of the announcements made today, we are also working on several exciting new developments that are currently in the stealth mode. These innovations will further strengthen our position and drive our business forward in the future. As we grow, we still continue prioritizing high R&D investment, just as we have in the past, ensuring we stay ahead of the market and maintain our track record of doubling revenues every five years. This innovation does more than just fuel growth; it expands our total addressable market. In 2020, our TAM was $1 billion.
By 2023, it has doubled to $2 billion, and by 2027, we expect it to reach $4 billion. What is more exciting is that our 2027 TAM forecast is 30% higher than what we projected during our last investor day in 2022. This expansion is directly driven by our commitment to innovation. This approach has worked for us in the past, and it will continue to be the foundation of our success moving forward. Beyond innovation and execution, another key factor is our success in how we are positioned across the industry. One of the key strengths is how broadly diversified we are across customers and segments. We serve all major segments in the industry: memory, logic, advanced packaging, leading edge, and trailing edge. This diversity allows us to navigate industry cycles more effectively.
As investment patterns shift between these segments over time, a great example of this is how our customers' distribution has evolved. Compared to 2020, our revenue streams today are much more diverse, reducing reliance on any single market trend. Another example is advanced packaging, where three years ago we had no exposure, but in 2024, it provided 15% of our revenue. Our broad exposure across the industry enables us to capture a wide range of opportunities and growth drivers as they evolve. Next one is our operational excellence. Operational excellence is a key enabler of our profitability and long-term success. It is about building a stronger, more efficient, and more agile company. We are focused on disciplined cost structure to ensure we drive profitability while continuing to invest in growth. We apply lean manufacturing principles to reduce waste, improve efficiency, and increase throughput.
To support global scalability, we are standardizing processes and systems. A great example of this in action is Ancosys, which we acquired in 2022. When we brought them into our organization, we observed some operational inefficiencies with long production cycles and excessive customization. As part of our PMI processes, we introduced structured processes, lean principles, and efficiency improvements. As a result, their margins improved by nearly 10 percentage points, demonstrating the impact of disciplined execution. Just as important, we are fostering a culture of continuous improvement, where we challenge ourselves to refine, optimize, and push for better results every day. Operational excellence is not a one-time effort; it's a mindset that allows us to scale efficiently, remain competitive, and maximize long-term value creation. Our install base is a powerful asset and a long-term revenue engine that continues to grow and drive value.
Today, services contribute about 20% of our total revenue and are growing at a compound annual growth rate of 22%. Our service business is built around multiple revenue streams, including service contracts, timing materials, spare parts, and value-added services. We provide our customers with unique features that enhance productivity, improve yield, and increase precision. Through effective install base management, we have also significantly improved service profitability. Our service margins have increased from 38% in 2020 to 43% in 2022 and have now extended further to 46% in 2024. As our install base expands, so does this recurring revenue stream, strengthening both our financial performance and customer relationships. Moving to our capital allocation, our first priority is to invest in growth and innovation, ensuring we have the right infrastructure to scale and capture future opportunities.
Over the past two years, we have expanded production capacity across all production divisions, making sure we can support a $1 billion revenue target. At the same time, we are in the middle of a digital transformation journey, upgrading our ERP and CRM systems. These investments will enhance efficiency, improve decision-making, and streamline internal processes, positioning us for even greater scalability. M&A is a top capital allocation priority for us, and we take a focused and value-driven approach to every deal. Our M&A criteria are clear: deals must be accretive within 12 months; they must fit our financial model with a focus on gross margin contribution, R&D intensity, and operational margin. Most importantly, we look for clear synergies between our business to drive additional value creation. Culture of fit is critical to ensure effective post-merger integration.
We believe this approach delivers significant returns for our shareholders, and the results speak for themselves. A great example is the internal rate of return of past acquisitions: ReVera in 2015 and Ancosys in 2022. Together, they delivered a 29% annual internal rate of return on our acquisition investments, more than doubled our weighted average cost of capital. This demonstrates that we not only know how to select the right companies but also how to execute effective post-merger integration to unlock full value. We believe that with our recent acquisition of Sentronics, we will achieve similar success. In addition, we have the cash reserves and financial flexibility to continue pursuing M&A opportunities of various sizes, including transformational deals that can further accelerate our growth.
Before we move to our financial model, it is important to address the headwinds and potential risks we see ahead and how we are working to mitigate them. The first is geopolitical risk. This includes regional conflicts such as Israel and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including export control and semiconductor equipment. To mitigate these risks, we strictly adhere to export control regulations guided by the dedicated compliance team. We are actively diversifying our supply chain to reduce exposure to any single region. For local conflicts, we have a robust business continuity plan in place with multiple production sites to ensure minimal disruption. The second risk is exchange rate fluctuation, which can impact our financial results. We mitigate this through natural hedging by pricing in U.S. dollars across our business to reduce currency exposure and financial hedging strategies to further protect against volatility.
The third key risk is semiconductor market volatility. The industry is cyclical, and demand can shift quickly. We mitigate this by diversifying our exposure across multiple segments and maintaining an agile cost structure, which has proven itself repeatedly. While these risks exist, we have a proven track record of our ability to navigate challenges, adapt to changing conditions, and continue delivering strong results. Now, let's move to our financial model, and I want to explain how we build and plan for the long term. The first step is to analyze the end markets and assess the expected capital expense spending of our customers. Next, we model the implication for the process control segment. As the industry evolves, every inflection point, especially those with more complex structures and materials, drives higher metrology intensity. A great example is the gate- all-around transition, where metrology intensity increased by 30%.
We integrate these shifts into our assumptions, aligning with the insight that Zohar shared earlier in his presentation. From there, we take a bottom-up approach, analyzing each product line individually. Finally, we evaluate risk and opportunities, factoring in external uncertainties and internal growth drivers. With all those elements combined, we build our business plan. We take a structured approach to scenario planning, incorporating multiple assumptions to account for growth, accelerators, and market dynamics. Let me walk you through the key elements that shape our model. Our first factor is WFE spending growth. In our optimistic scenario, we assume 8% year-over-year growth, reflecting strong foundry and logic investment driving demand for advanced technology. In the low case, growth is below 3%, reflecting softer capital expense spending. Next is advanced packaging growth. The high scenario assumes 15%-20% growth, fueled by strong demand for HBM and chiplet architectures.
The low case assumes growth below 5% due to the cost and supply constraints slowing adoption. The third factor is wafer capacity expansion. In our high scenario, we model 7% year-over-year growth, assuming new fabs ramp faster. The low case assumes 3% growth, reflecting slower fab utilization rates. Inflection points are key catalysts for metrology adoption. Any acceleration in new technologies such as 4F square, hybrid bonding, 3D DRAM, and backside power delivery will drive stronger demand for our solutions. In the low case, delay in industry roadmaps would push our adoption timelines. Another important element is geographical exposure, particularly to China. Historically, our exposure to China has been in line with overall WFE spending, with slightly higher percentages in certain periods. In the best case, China drives 30% of total WFE, while in the low case, it reverts to below 20%.
Taking all these factors into account, we build our model with a balanced approach, reflecting a midpoint scenario between the high and low cases. Ultimately, any shifts in these assumptions can accelerate or slow our performance, and we continuously monitor market trends to stay ahead. Finally, bringing everything together, I am happy to share with you our updated business model. We are raising our 2027 top-line target. The $1 billion revenue goal we originally announced in 2022 will now be achieved organically. On top of that, we expect additional contributions from M&A. Looking at our financial metrics, we are also expanding our operating margin target to 28%-33% compared to our previous model of 27%-31%. Thanks to the faster adoption of our new technologies and market share gains, we are also increasing our gross margin target, now reaching 60% at the high end.
As I mentioned earlier, we will continue to invest in R&D at a higher level than our peers, maintaining a 15%-17% range to drive future innovation. At the same time, we expect to see operating leverage in the SG&A, lowering our target range to 12%-14%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be 15%, and ultimately, these improvements will drive non-GAAP EPS power of $10 per diluted share. This updated model reflects our confidence in the business, our ability to execute, and our focus on delivering sustainable, profitable growth. On the capital allocation front, we have a clear plan for how we will deploy $1.7 billion in capital investment through 2027. $100 million will go into working capital, supporting revenue growth and ensuring we have the flexibility to scale. This reflects 30% of our investment in driving top-line expansion.
$100 million will be allocated to capital spending, investing in infrastructure to lay the foundation for our next growth cycle beyond 2027. $100 million is planned for share repurchases, where we will continue to execute opportunistic buybacks based on market conditions. $400 million will go into R&D investments, maintaining our commitment to innovation and long-term technology leadership. The remaining $1 billion is allocated to significant M&A, fueling inorganic growth and strategic expansion. That concludes my part of the presentation. We cover our strong financial performance, strategic investments, and long-term growth plans. Our focus remains on scaling the business, driving profitability, and delivering shareholder value. With that, I will hand it back to Gaby to summarize our session.
Please allow me to summarize the presentations. We demonstrated remarkable growth and market outperformance, consistently outperforming the market. Record revenue and profitability in 2024 and a CAGR of 26% since 2020.
Strategic focus on innovation and diversification. We invest heavily in R&D, 15% of our revenue to maintain leadership and expand into new domains. We expand our product portfolio. Sentronics i580 highlights Nova's commitment to expanding its product offerings into fast-growing markets and addressing emerging challenges. Strong customer relationships and market penetration. Our solutions have been adopted by the top five CapEx players, demonstrating the value and trust in Nova's technology. Our ESG strategy emphasizes sustainability in property, product lifecycle, and portfolio offering. Robust financial performance and strategic investments. Nova's financial strength is evident with a strong cash reserve and a clear plan for capital allocation, including significant investments in R&D, M&A, and infrastructure. In addressing industry challenges, we are well-positioned to meet the increasing complexity and demand for high-quality metrology solutions, particularly in advanced nodes.
Finally, our vision for long-term success: a holistic approach combining innovation, unique technology, sustainability, and a people-first culture that sets the foundation for sustained long-term growth and industry leadership. Now, let's go to Miri, who will manage the Q&A session. Miri?
Hi, everyone. Nice to see you all again. Let me just review questions and then share it with you. Our first question is: Material metrology is one of Nova's key growth engines. Do you see any emerging competition, and how will Nova maintain its competitive advantage?
Our working assumption is that competition will come at some point because the market is growing, and we are growing fast as well. Our strategy is to invest in our roadmap. We invest 15% on an annual basis, and that creates a significant moat.
In addition, we have accumulated vast knowledge and experience in lab-to-fab transfer, and that is very difficult to emulate. Last, we have a defense strategy, a long-term one that includes investment in unique capabilities, better performance, and better cost of ownership in order to broaden the gap.
Okay, I'll move to the next one. Can you provide a breakdown for the $4 billion TAM in 2027?
Yeah, thank you, Miri. The way we divide it is as follows. If we look, I'll start with the dimension of metrology in the front end. It's accounting for about one-third of this total TAM, so about $1.3 billion. If we look at our materials metrology, which includes our X-ray and our SIMS and Raman technologies, this also accounts for about 1/3. Once again, similar number.
If we look at our chemical metrology, it's about 10%, so about $400 million TAM. The remainder is about 15%, more or less, for our advanced packaging metrologies, mostly dimension metrologies, but additional metrologies as well. This accounts for the $4 billion. On top of that, in the future, with the potential other growth, inorganic growth opportunities can contribute even more.
Okay, I'll move to the next one. Can you expand on the plan of the $100 million CapEx allocation?
Yes, I will take that. When we are planning our CapEx plans, we are looking on the long term, and the horizon of the planning of the CapEx is beyond 2027, beyond the $1 billion plan. Our assumption is that we will continue to grow.
In that aspect, we need to make sure that we have the right infrastructure and the capacity to support beyond the $1 billion. The $100 million that we allocate includes mainly facility-related planning and capacity expansions and the infrastructure investments, such as IT and so forth.
Okay, and the next one is some portion of executive compensation tied to the successful achievement of ESG KPIs.
Thank you, Miri. I will take that. The answer is yes. We define what kind of a company we want to be, and we build our goals accordingly. Management members are being measured according to their performance of these goals. Few examples can be hiring women, internal mobility and promotion, volunteering, and more.
Okay, the next question. There's a lot of discussion around hybrid bonding. How does this affect the need for process control?
Thank you, Miri. I will take this.
Actually, for hybrid bonding, this enables connecting of various types of chips, memory, logic, and sensor into a single substrate. This requires a significant investment in R&D, which is happening today. With this increase in R&D, we see an increased number of challenges, challenges around the TSV, challenges around the wafer thinning, challenges around the wafer edge, and also some material aspect. With these increased challenges, we see an increase in the metrology intensity. Our current product portfolio is well-suited to answer these challenges. From the material metrology, we have use cases of the XPS for surface treatment, pre-bonding, the Prism I mentioned by presentation, the use case for TSV characterization, the profile, and the CDs and the asymmetry measurement. For the TSV, there are also significant challenges around the plating, where our chemical metrology is expanding for these use cases.
Our recent acquisition of Sentronics, with its flexible platform and multiple sensors, actually also increased our use cases for thickness measurement and topography control. Last but not least is our integrated metrology with CMP control and also with the wafer edge control. We've mentioned the i580 with the wafer edge control. Also, we see new applications around copper dishing. Although hybrid bonding is now in R&D, the tool selections are happening right now, and we are well-suited to increase the adoption and to see an increased metrology intensity.
The next one is: What is the current percentage of Nova sales for AI and HBM in one year? Sorry, I'm just going over it. What is the current percentage of Nova sales for AI, HBM, and in one year, what percentage of Nova sales will come from AI and HBM? Now and in one year.
First of all, AI is broader than just HBM. It includes both advanced nodes and advanced packaging. Currently, we're at about 15% of our revenue coming from advanced packaging. The bulk of it is from logic. By 2027, we expect it to become 20% of our product sales, with a split between advanced packaging for logic and high-bandwidth memory, which, by the way, includes Sentronics. After a couple of years of low NAND CapEx spending for NAND, what are your future expectations for NAND-related sales? We expect NAND recovery to commence at the end of this year and into 2026. We see NAND becoming even higher with multi-deck structures and opportunities that relate to high-aspect ratio and contamination control for both chemical and material metrology. Overall, we expect advanced memory to double the TAM for Nova in the coming years.
Of course, we are feverishly working in order to improve our position in the NAND in order to capitalize on the opportunities that are being derived out of this technology.
Okay, now there is a request for a quick clarification. Is the comment to double 2022 sales by 2027 or $1 billion? Is it new?
Definitely. We presented in our previous strategic plan that we published in January of 2022 a $1 billion target in 2027, which included organically about $800 million-$850 million and another inorganic component of $150 million-$200 million. We are now presenting $1 billion organically in 2027. In addition, of course, an opportunity for M&A, which, if we take the previous plan, is about $150 million-$200 million.
The next one: What is driving the higher gross margin percentage in the new target model, mostly top line or product mix or higher blended speed, if you can rank them?
I think it's all of the above. Obviously, the fact that we are growing on the top line, this has a contribution to our gross margins. All the new offerings that we have, a broader portfolio, it's also a product mix, and the new evolution of new products and evolution of our current products with new platforms that are going into a new generation of platforms that we have, extending also the SPs. All of these contributing to higher high-end gross margin of 60%.
Can you provide some thoughts on not providing a brand new target model beyond the $1 billion revenue, given that trailing 12-month revenue is already $750 million?
We presented the plan, of course, for 2027, which is updating our previous strategic plan. We are working on the additional forward-looking plan as we speak, and we'll present it, of course, at due time. How are you thinking about contributions from M&A in the 2027 target model versus prior view of $150 million-$200 million? There are M&A opportunities that we are currently looking at. As you know, we have concluded the Sentronics acquisition at the end of January this year, which is currently being integrated into Nova. We have a lot of interest from the market, and we're very excited about this opportunity. We previously published about $150 million-$200 million of inorganic opportunities, and we want to tap on the same number for our 2027 plan on top of the $1 billion organic revenue that I've mentioned before.
Next one: How do you expect the mix to shift between dimensional, material, and chemical metrology revenues by 2027?
All three divisions are growing. We currently have about 40%-50% coming out of the dimensional metrology, about 30%-40% from material, and about 10%-20% from chemical. As they are all growing, we expect this ratio to remain intact also in 2027.
Okay. With TSMC becoming increasingly dominant, do you foresee an impact on your margins, and have you factored it into your updated model?
I can relate to bigger customers that are driving higher volumes, and of course, higher volumes entitle a higher discount. Typically, advanced node customers are buying in volumes, but they also adopt our latest and greatest technology. We are focusing on the value that those technologies offer to advanced node customers.
Of course, we are focusing on advanced nodes business as a major part of our revenue going forward. This is, of course, taken into account and factored in our gross margin calculations that Guy presented before.
Okay. Can you share the market assumptions for 2026 and 2027 to reach over $1 billion revenue?
The market assumptions is having WFE growth of between 3%-8%. Obviously, we are expecting about 50% of outperforming these numbers. We are correlated to WFE growth, so this range will obviously impact us, but our assumptions and calculations are taking into consideration that WFE growth in the coming few years.
Actually, there is a second part to this question. What gives you the confidence in the lack of cyclicality for the next few years?
In the previous plan that we published in 2022, we took into consideration one cycle, which happened in 2023. Obviously, any additional cycle could impact us. We're not detached from WFE, but based on the assumptions on the 2027 plan, as I mentioned before, we consider 3%-8% WFE growth, and our numbers are based on that.
Okay, next one. Can you update the TAM opportunities across material metrology solutions? I believe prior was, and then the breakdown between VeraFlex, Metrion, and Elipson.
Zohar, would you like to take it?
Yes. Yes, thank you. Between these, we look at something like around $1 billion for the VeraFlex, where we look at film metrology and composition, and about $400 million combined with the Elipson and Metrion for the new materials metrology.
Maybe, Zohar, if I can add on that.
We see a wide adoption of our Elipson product in the recent years. We see it in multiple tools and multiple top five customers, with a variety of new use cases being proliferated, both in the Gate- All- Around and in the logic. This reassures us in the part that the Elipson will take in the material metrology. We also see the Metrion adoption. We've already announced one win with a major memory player. We are going through a couple of strategic evaluations with the top five customers. Hopefully, when they will conclude, we will see also a continued growth with the Metrion proliferation as well.
I want to add just on top of that.
Oh, sorry.
Just one more comment. We continue to invest significantly across all the different platforms of our material metrology.
Part of that is to make them more HBM-worthy, and we see this as a potential to grow the addressable market as well, so across all the three platforms.
Great. We just do not have enough time, so we will just take the last question for the moment. How do you see CPO and use of glass substrates impacting your opportunity? What products address CPO?
Shay, would you like to take it?
Yeah, I can take part of it. The co-packaged optics, we see this as a trend as part of the advanced packaging, basically packaging optical components together with some of the electronic components. We have a variety of evaluations ongoing to measure the specific optical components. This can be done either with our Prism and also with some of the Sentronics sensors.
Generally, for measuring optical components, optical tools are best suited because we get better correlation to the eventual device performance. Also, the general co-packaged optic is part of a general trend of the silicon photonics, where we see an increased use also of our material metrology. The important growth of silicon germanium adds some significant use case along all our material portfolio. Although this is only in the early stages, the co-packaged optics, we do see some interesting opportunities there.
Great. Okay, thank you, everyone. That's all the time that we have today. If we were unable to answer some of the questions, please email us, and we'll be happy to schedule a follow-up call.
This concludes our Investor Day. Thank you all for joining us today.