Everyone, and thank you for joining us. My name is Marlane Pereiro. I'm the High-Yield Cable and Media Analyst at Bank of America. I'm happy to have with us this afternoon from OUTFRONT Media, Matt Siegel. Thank you for joining us.
Thanks for having me.
It's a pleasure. You know, I wanted to start with the advertising environment. You know, what gives you confidence that ad strength will carry into 2026?
So first, I can say we had a pretty good third quarter led by our transit business, and we gave guidance that the fourth quarter growth rate is going to be a little higher than the third quarter. So we feel pretty good going into next year. And sitting here December 2nd, I can say my visibility into 2026 looks stronger than my visibility a year ago, December 2nd, 2024, looking into 2025. So I feel more confident. We can see it. It's early days yet. Our perm business, which is the, you know, the resetting of our 12-month contracts in advance of the year, price growth is up from what it was last year. So a lot of our sales metrics are improved. And this is, again, with maybe 10, you know, a little more than 10% of our revenue on books, but directionally really good.
Great. You know, national ads have been strong. You know, how is that momentum translated to local markets, or at least local markets next year?
So interesting for us, even though we're considered, you know, the leader in national out-of-home, we have a very big local business, which has much less volatility. So it's really just the last couple of quarters where national focus in transit has kind of overwhelmed local. So we have less volatility, but it's been chugging along. So we feel it's in good shape. Also, that does most of our perms come out of local. The old-fashioned turn left for this, turn right for that, can't miss those. Again, doing well. So we feel good about local both in billboard and transit. Most of our recent management changes have been focused on putting more talent, more digital talent focused on enterprise. And I think local will benefit from some of the extra marketing we're spending on right now.
Great. You know, in terms of just one last question on local, you know, in terms of categories that are driving that or that you expect to drive the momentum, what would you highlight?
So, one of, if not our biggest categories, is the legal profession. And that's, you know, large and fast-growing. So, you know, I think everyone has seen or heard or, you know, the Morgan & Morgan and others, imitators, followers, competitors. That's been big. And we can expect the continued industry to see that growing across the country in almost all of our markets. Plus the resurgence of retail and, you know, most fashion is in national, but there's some that's local. You know, it's a pretty diverse portfolio. Auto, which has been down on the national side, is very steady when I look at it through a local lens. So the auto dealers, not necessarily, you know, Ford's, you know, new vehicle launches, but Bob Chevy and Joe's, you know, the GM dealer don't give up their perms for anything. And that's been a good driver for us.
Great. And, you know, I think, you know, it was discussed on the call, you know, the World Cup, Olympics, you know, those type of revenue streams, you know, how do you expect those types of events to impact outdoor and, you know, kind of drive revenue and innovation?
So without question, the big events are tailwinds for the industry. World Cup in particular this year, we have all except one market. We're not in Seattle, but we're in Kansas City and obviously New York, New Jersey, L.A., and other large markets. So we feel it's a pretty good tailwind for us. It gives us an opportunity to do more, you know, short-term permitting of, you know, experiences and things. You know, we've been stepping out trying to do more than just sell rectangles. Nothing against selling rectangles. We have a lot of rectangles. But doing drone shows and experiences, you know, the shorter duration nature of these high-profile events give an opportunity for that. So we're excited. We don't necessarily think it's going to be, you know, one for one for one ad, one plus one equals two type thing.
But so when we add take in ads or increase pricing for, you know, FIFA in a certain market, something else might get squeezed out. So we're excited and enthused. It's a good tailwind for us and for others. We haven't quantified it yet. Other related, you know, Super Bowl. Every year we have the Super Bowl in one of our markets. We're all in the big markets in the rotation. Some years better than others. Last year, this past year, New Orleans was a big market for us. Again, because we did a lot of that short-term permitting. So that's something we're doing more and more of, whether it's in sports or unique experiences.
Great. Then turning to digital, it's about 35% of revenue. You know, what is the long-term target for digital share?
Not necessarily a target. Maybe it's a mile marker along the way. As 35% goes to 50% and beyond, we look at, you know, how quickly we get to 50% penetration of digital revenue. A lot of countries in Europe and Australia are north of 50%. So we know that's attainable, and that'll likely drive our development and spend on more digital billboards. Most of our transit properties are digitized, and then a lot of spending still to do there, but we're basically growing our digital penetration about 1% per quarter on a sequential basis, so that 35% by the end of next year should be around 40%. And we think we can just grow it from there. I don't see any slowdown. In digital, our programmatic or automated revenue is growing even faster than our regular digital, so we think that helps lift that penetration.
Great. And, you know, which markets offer the most upside for digital? And what kind of factors should we think about in terms of limiting conversion to digital in certain markets?
So limiting conversion, we're not there yet. So we think all of our markets, even the smaller ones, have opportunity for more digital. You know, so we have a 100+ person real estate team that's always out there looking for opportunities. The digital opportunities really are across our portfolio. The bigger markets, New York or Los Angeles, obviously you create digital, you create new inventory. There's more revenue opportunities. So therefore, you know, generally more EBITDA opportunity. I would have more value in a new digital billboard in, you know, Lower Manhattan than I would in Louisville. That being said, those in Louisville have higher margin. And to the extent we believe the market can handle new inventory, you know, we're looking everywhere to do so.
Great. And, you know, the AWS partnership, you know, how will that reshape planning, buying, you know, measurement in the outdoor space in your view? And, you know, when will that integration start driving revenue growth?
So, interesting. It's the new arrangement for us, you know, partnering with smart people who want to, you know, find solutions is one of the things our new management has really brought in that idea. No revenue this year and probably very little next year associated with this AWS contract. But we think our inventory with them can help us, our salespeople, our clients better see our inventory, what's available, what's not available. We're looking kind of three-dimensional over, you know, time, space, and location. So, you know, we're hopeful for that, but I don't have anything specific to say we're developing this. We think in addition that can help us with post-transaction measurement. But again, a lot of it rides on continued development between us and AWS. Smart people, we use their cloud services, and we think there could potentially be something here.
And when we think about programmatic, you know, that grew roughly 30%. You know, how do you accelerate from here? And, you know, how do we think about outdoor closing the measurement gap versus other digital channels?
First, programmatic accelerating focus. So more inventory tied to programmatic. Right now, almost all of our inventory is connected to the programmatic and automated platforms that we use. The one that's not is rolling stock, you know, train cars, which we've been working on for most of this year, haven't kind of perfected that yet. And people ask me, how can we take so long? I flippantly say, well, you know, the trains are moving. But it's hard. So we're working on that, and that'll be helpful. But getting all of our inventory, all of our billboards connected and all the players connected was a challenge, and that's happened. So everything's there. Our salespeople are still receiving commission for their clients that generate programmatic sales. So they're not obstructing. They're pushing demand, which we think is helpful.
We're covering now, we weren't a year ago, specifically covering the digital agencies, which are kind of spread throughout the country with both enterprise salespeople and commercial salespeople, the smaller. So we're spending more time, more focus to generate programmatic over time. We think there's a number of channels, whether it's something automated for really small customers who want to take a digital billboard and they can send in their copy and get it up, you know, quickly, programmatic and automated. And it still is going to be a channel for direct selling and those who have big complex, you know, plans, proposals, and want to reach varied audiences. You know, we still expect to service that.
Great. And then, you know, turning to the MTA and transit, you know, transit was up about 24% in 3Q. You know, New York MTA up 37%. You know, how sustainable is this into 2026 and beyond?
I'll tell you, for years, I hated taking questions on the MTA. So I thank you for asking it now. It's really doing well. And I, you know, I don't want to say it just started. MTA itself grew 12% last year, still under the minimum guarantee. So it's got some ways to go. And the incremental revenue is good incremental EBITDA. So MTA performance is a result of focus, execution, and portfolio management. You know, we used to have a large billboard portfolio in New York that we exited. It wasn't part of our strategy, but we thought it would, you know, kind of help focus the sales team. So now they're selling more transit that has, you know, same commission structure for them, which is great. And for the company, it has a higher incremental EBITDA. So it realigns the sales force. That's helped.
We've put one of our top marketing people on top of nothing but transit. And obviously, if you're in transit for us, you're doing the MTA and focused on that. And our enterprise group is really focused on bringing their clients to this audience. I think the fears of the subways and safety and cleanliness and other things are mostly behind people. Customers, advertisers recognize that this is the biggest audience in the country, and this is how you reach them. You know, so it's, again, 37%, you know, don't come back in three months and tell us we're decelerating. The math might say so. We think MTA is going to grow in the high teens in the fourth quarter as well.
So we feel, again, great going into 2026 and no reason for the momentum to, again, I'm not sure there's a 37% growth quarter in our future, but I feel really good about the MTA now, and that's been great for our EBITDA mix and frankly, great for internal morale. It's good to see the redheaded stepchild, you know, come back and perform.
Can you remind us, you know, how that contract works, right? Because obviously there's like a CapEx component.
A little bit more time.
Okay.
But no, I can think of something.
You know, is it more? We had a breakeven point, you know, just.
I think even might be a stretch. The contract runs through 2030. If you recall, we are responsible for funding and construction and putting all those screens in, 30,000+ screens that, you know, the initial deployment is completed. If you didn't see, a couple of years ago, we took a $500 million impairment for our transit segment, but most of it was in the MTA. So if we hit a certain revenue benchmark, which is above the minimum guarantee, the MTA would start to reimburse us for that spend. Well, we didn't reach it. You know, post-pandemic was really very depressed. And our internal modeling said we wouldn't reach it. So we took that impairment, and that was painful. That led us to some other steps to improve our balance sheet.
But now, once you're still below the minimum guarantee, as you grow your revenue higher than our model, you're getting closer to the minimum guarantee. The EBITDA impact is very high. So I know I'm paying a fixed amount for the franchise fee, and the revenue is all mine except for the commission and bonuses I'm paying for the sales force. So the falling below is painful, but rising back toward and hopefully at some point above is very enjoyable. So again, 2030, we have a five-year option from there to extend. Obviously, it'll be facts and circumstances at the time, but we think we can make a good case for renegotiating something mutually beneficial. You know, we like the franchise. We like the audience. We just don't like the contract.
Thanks for that overview, and, you know, obviously ridership is a factor, but, you know, what other metrics matter, you know, the most now in addition to ridership?
So ridership is a factor, but no longer critical. So, you know, back in the pandemic when ridership was down 90%, I think it's now in the high 70% from 2019 comparison. And for those of you who don't go to the office on a Friday in New York, the natural limit is probably around 80%. So we're probably back to where it's going to be. Key metrics are, you know, CPMs, even though we don't sell transit on a screen-by-screen basis like we sell billboards, getting customers to pay us more for that same audience, even that slightly growing audience is important. And to do that, we need to create more attention, drive more demand on those assets. So bringing people underground or on the street level, different panels we have is important.
Again, going back to not just selling the rectangles there, but selling experiences, you know, doing a big ESPN show on the E-train, you know, doing a metro train with, you know, things outside the shuttle. Recently, I think Bath & Body Works, you know, they had a scent in the shuttle, the S-Train. So if you walked off the train or through that area, you could smell Christmas trees. Again, that's, I'm not sure that's going to change the world, but it's something we can do and others can't, just, you know, from our contract. We're taking greater steps, more focus, trying to be more creative with the MTA and not just kicking ourselves for owning it, but, you know, trying to maximize it.
Great. And as we think about margins, cost savings, starting with the billboard margins, you know, those improved 39.5%, you know, what's next for margin optimization?
I think margins grind higher in a couple of factors. First, on billboard, continue to manage our portfolio. For years, we would focus really on getting, winning, building more billboards, adding, you know, opportunities for revenue. We've, you know, inflected and we're focusing a lot more on EBITDA from the portfolio. We gave up two large contracts, one in New York, one in L.A. in the last 15 months. Both those, we give a pro forma update on revenue, but no pro forma update on EBITDA. EBITDA was pretty small. So we think we can, you know, do without them. And so far that theory was proving correct. Smaller scale, we're empowering our real estate team to negotiate tougher and give up some static leases if they don't think it makes sense to keep them. You know, right now we have 37,000 static billboards.
I don't think anyone in this room would think less of us if we had 35,000 or 32,000, you know, whatever the number is. We have a lot. We think we can manage the cost of our lease portfolio by being proactive. So I think that continues to grind higher. Transit, as the MTA comes up to its minimum, the total EBITDA margin on transit improves. So we think directionally, that's good. And I hope everyone, so, you know, painfully took a reduction in force in June. We lost about 6% of our headcount. And we think there's benefits from that going forward. And we continue to look whether it's through AI or improved efficiency or just better operations, various ways to manage our overhead costs.
Got it. And you know, how do you balance lease cost cuts with keeping premium locations?
Great question. So we're not giving up things on Houston Street or the West Side Highway. We have given up some things in Times Square, but there's a lot of stuff and we have a lot of inventory in Times Square. It's a combination of art and science, you know, so it's not just a metric. This doesn't make enough to get rid of it. Some of these high-profile ones, whether it's the iconic statics or the digitals, we're not giving up any digital. We think more digital is better. But they make sense to have because the client wants them, even if you're not making money off that. Our largest advertiser, probably everyone's largest advertiser, chooses static instead of digital. They're not flipping from an electronic device to a static. They're not sharing. So the focus is really on some of the expensive, low-return static.
We think even if you're not taking down the tool, our real estate team has to negotiate tougher. I think is a valuable tool for them to have.
Great. And, you know, turning to your capital structure, you know, leverage is, you know, 4.7 times. You know, how are you thinking about and/or prioritizing some of your nearer-term debt?
Our next maturity is summer of 2027. Still basking in the refinance of our 2026. So, you know, we probably wouldn't address that until they're near going current. These 2027s and probably the 2028s seem to be historically low coupons. And if I can't put them in a museum, at least I can ride them as long as we, you know, as long as we can. Leverage-wise, we'd still like to reduce our leverage, maybe closer to four, not necessarily to live there forever, but to regain or continue to build some financial flexibility. You know, the high-yield market is very supportive of out-of-home in general and OUTFRONT specifically. So we want to be respectful and, you know, kind of keep a regular cadence. And, you know, just we think having a little less leverage is beneficial to all of our stakeholders.
Great. And what is your current secured capacity?
We're about one and a half times, say, three turns. So about $1.5 billion. We do have one unusual secured bond, which we issued a little over a year ago when the secured-unsecured gap was unusually wide. At some point, when the rates line up within the call window, we'd probably take that out and replace that with unsecured. Not that I dislike secured debt. I'd rather save it for, you know, necessary usage in M&A or distress or rainy day or something. But again, plenty of secured capacity, even if we don't replace that. So we feel pretty good about that. I do want to have a balance. So I'm in the term loan market, the bond market, secured, unsecured. So, you know, no one gets sent home hungry.
Right. And, you know, obviously you have, you know, strong liquidity. We just talked about the balance sheet. You know, would you consider a larger M&A and bringing kind of leverage a bit higher, you know, for the right opportunity?
I think for something smart, prudent, and we would take leverage up with a path of de-lever just to go, you know, turn higher and live there without the ability to de-lever, I think is not going to be rewarded by any of our stakeholders. But we do think we have some flexibility, some creativity. We've used other people's money and some off-balance sheet financing, you know, I think smartly. So I do think the industry probably has some strategic changes in the future, although people have been saying that for years. And as one of the three large public companies in the industry, we would expect to participate in some fashion.
Are acquisitions about footprint, digital capabilities, or maybe a combination of both?
Great question. Probably more about footprint. I think I can deliver digital capabilities within a footprint if I added the footprint, as opposed to if we bought some digital capabilities or bought some digital operations and I didn't have, like, went out in Charlotte, North Carolina. I'd rather spend money to get into Charlotte and then build from there. It's a good young market that's growing as opposed to just ignoring it and buying some cool stuff. It doesn't mean they're mutually exclusive. But I think the focus in our shop is more on tuck-ins to the locations we have and any new markets that we should have. You know, top 25 DMAs that we're really not a big presence.
Great. And you know, for a larger scale M&A, you know, what are some of the tax implications that might be a hindrance or even a benefit that would be part of that thought process?
So we're a REIT. So some sellers would like REIT shares. I think everyone's heard about, you know, an Up-C structure or something that we don't have, but we could put together in a month. You know, we haven't spent the time or resources on the paperwork, you know, pending a need. But the tax implications, I'm guessing most of the industry is very low basis. So sales would create capital gain. Even for a REIT, you know, we had a capital gain distribution when we sold our Canadian business. That's something to consider. And frankly, if you took your leverage too high, it becomes even more challenging remaining a REIT. Very difficult to pay down debt when you're paying a big dividend.
Great, and then just thinking of longer-term targets, you know, you raised AFFO guide for 2025. You know, when we think about 2026, you know, how do you see that trending?
So we can answer, but we'll be in the high single-digit growth rate in 2025. And without giving, you know, too much forward guidance, I would expect to be at least there, if not continue to improve. You know, we do think there's some tailwinds and costs. And we talked about some revenue opportunities in 2026. So we feel pretty good about it. You know, again, we feel pretty good with the changes we've made, portfolio we have, performance. And I think that'll be reflected in the AFFO.
Great. And, you know, how will the mix of billboards and transit continue to evolve in terms of share?
Great question, so we recently, the last few years, have been focusing on growing or adding billboard, and frankly, you know, none of our big transit contracts come up until 2030, so we've shed a couple of the smaller ones, so back in 2019, we were two-thirds billboard, one-third transit. You know, we don't necessarily like the risk-reward or the financial profile of transit, so we're not looking to add until these renewals come up and we can reprice them, you know, so we've given up some transit, and I would expect the emphasis on billboard, emphasis on large market billboard to remain and grow. That being said, the Louisville, Columbus, Georges, and others have high margin, lower volatility, and perform very nice function as balance or ballast to our overall portfolio, so we like what we have.
I would expect to increase our performance and our investment in large billboard markets, and if we can reprice, and frankly, as the industry leader in transit, you know, maybe it's up to us to reprice and demonstrate, you know, what we intend or are comfortable paying. We like the transit properties, again, but we just want to improve the contracts.
Great. And then, you know, if we think about free cash flow items, you know, first of all, you'd mentioned kind of getting closer to the four times leverage over time. So, you know, is that being part of it? How do we think about, you know, your capital allocation priorities evolving, right, as we think about leverage, potential M&A? You know, what are the priorities and how could we see them evolve as your leverage comes?
The first priority, you know, as a REIT, we have a big dividend obligation. And, you know, happy to say that our dividend yield has gone down. I remind all equity investors and everyone who asks that we don't control the yield, we control the payout. They control the yield. So that comes out, you know, out from our EBITDA. We do think we'll pick up modestly our M&A activity on the tuck-ins. We haven't seen a lot of things in the last couple of years that have been interesting. I don't think we've missed things. But, you know, if the industry, as I mentioned, if the industry is going to have some strategic moves or have some more consolidation, we would look at that. And then otherwise, we would continue to de-lever organically.
We're getting closer to post-dividend, free cash flow neutral, which is for a REIT nice to have, you know, with funding the MTA and other things. I don't think we're going to be free cash flow positive post-dividend, but pre-dividend, which is, I guess, a metric we would be. But the dividend is about $20 million. That chews up a lot of free cash.
Great. And from a CapEx perspective, you know, should we expect it to be similar to, you know, this year or?
I think similar. We try to spend about 5% of our revenue. You know, this year, the $85 million-$90 million range. Next year, probably in that same $90 million range. Of that, about $30 million-$35 million is maintenance CapEx. We increased that because we started proactively replacing digital screens. Apparently, nothing lasts forever. We have many screens that are older than 10 years. Rather than have the local salespeople and general managers complain, we want to take control of the digital operations group and identify those that should be replaced, not just the squeaky wheels. We'll continue to do that. That's probably lasts forever. I assume the others, not just in out-of-home, but anyone who has digital screens out there, they don't last forever. We're seeing the similar thing that's in our CapEx in the MTA.
If you've been down to the bottom of the seven train in the summer, it's pretty inhospitable. We've started installing these screens in 2018. So we're discovering how long they last in the elements.
Great. And as we think about 2026, whether it's, you know, digitization, programmatic, experimental campaigns, you know, what do you think will be, you know, a little, you know, more of the focus and what are you most excited about when we think about those, you know, areas of the business?
So our focus on digital. So anything digital, more digital inventory, selling digital better. We're now directly covering the digital agencies, which we hadn't done before. Increasing our focus on programmatic within the digital space. Historically, we've sold digital like it's eight statics stacked on top of each other, which is okay. You know, we know the location. There's more demand. We can sell that. We now think with a bunch of new hires, we can sell them more integrated with some others, the retail media networks that are within stores. You know, we have digital screens outside those stores. Why can't we link those? Same thing with stadiums for, you know, the sports teams. They now have on-premise or in-premise advertising. So, you know, we can partner better with more people with digital. We're never going to, you know, exit static. There's all kinds of iconic statics.
But greater focus on selling digital better will help our margin. You won't have to roll trucks and other things. And I think it'll help grow our revenue higher than historical rates.
Great. Well, that's all the time we have, Matt. Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you, Tash. Thanks, everyone, for coming. Thanks a lot. That was great.