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Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Aug 9, 2021

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Planet Fitness' Chief Executive Officer, Chris Rondeau and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Fitzgerald. We also have Dorvin Lively, President of Planet Fitness on the line, who will be available for questions during the Q and A session following the prepared remarks. Today's call is being webcast live and recorded for replay. Before I turn the call over to Chris, I would like to remind everyone that the language on forward looking statements included in our earnings release also applies to our comments made during this call.

Our release can be found on our website, investor. Planetfitness.com, along with any reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures mentioned on call with their corresponding GAAP measures. Now I will turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Stacey, and thank you everyone for joining us today for Planet Fitness' Q2 earnings call. It's a testament to the strength of our brand that more than 13,000,000 people remain committed members of Planet Fitness in the depths of a global pandemic when most of our gyms were temporarily closed. Our membership momentum continues to defy our historical seasonal patterns. In through July, we had more than 15,000,000 members. We have regained approximately 75% of the members we lost from our peak in Q1 2020 to our low in Q4 2020.

I've never seen this type of unseasonable membership growth in my nearly 30 years at Planet. And some of our larger franchisees who have been with us for a good portion of that time are also amazed at the positive trends that they are seeing across their portfolios. And today, with nearly all our stores reopened, existing members are reengaging with us And new members are joining at unprecedented rates as they all realize the importance of fitness to their overall wellness. We're in the business of helping people feel better and get healthy, And that's what they're seeking right now, a community based support system in a gun free environment combined with an incredible membership value proposition. COVID hit the US hard.

The country came into the pandemic with more than 70% of adults over the age of 20 considered overweight or obese, one of the top risk factors for severe illness from COVID. In fact, life expectancy in America fell by 1.5 years in 2020 due to the pandemic and other residual impacts, the largest single year decline since World War II. A Kaiser health study showed that people who regularly We believe the unseasonal momentum in our membership gains is fueled by people recognizing the importance of self care. Our messaging to to consumers is about taking the first step by getting off the couch and getting into a fitness routine. Our national May sale of 1 month free and no commitment removes all the barriers to doing so.

As a result, total net member growth in May was 3 times our growth in May 2019. In June, We ran a Black Card flash sale and for the month net member growth was nearly 20 times what we saw in June 2019, during which we ran a similar offer. For the quarter, net member growth in Q2 not only exceeded Q1 net growth, it doubled what we saw in Q2 2019. We ended Q2 with more than 14,800,000 members. Exceeding 15,000,000 members with our July national sale It was truly remarkable for our brand when you consider the state of our business in the Q2 of 2020.

We had approximately 30% of our stores temporarily closed and negative net membership growth. In just 12 months, our business has rebounded and importantly, our franchisees are very excited about the trends in the future. It's It's hard to predict whether these recent seasonal joins will continue for the rest of the year, but we believe that people are recognizing the importance of taking better care of themselves. The The trends in our business attest to this. In addition to the strength of our joints in June, attrition and usage are normalizing and in some cases exceeding our 2019 level, both on a regional and age demographic basis.

During June, we began to see certain key metrics in our business return to nearly pre COVID levels. National usage trending up during the quarter, ending June at nearly 90% of 2019 levels. Usage in June for all demographics was nearly back to a typical pre COVID month, with only boomers trailing. However, it is still trending upward for that age group. Our last group of reopenings are returning to pre pandemic performance levels faster and those that reopened back in 2020 as people begin to return to more normal activities.

While Cove had a temporary impact on our business, There are areas that the pandemic accelerates such as our digital strategy. When we shut down our stores last year, we quickly shifted to keeping our members engaged digitally with free workouts offered via the web in our mobile app. And as we announced last quarter, we strengthened our partnership with iFit to unlock future opportunities to further accelerate our digital content strategy. App adoption of our members is nearly 60%, having grown from 40% in Q4 2020. During Q3, we plan to roll short friend incentive program through the app.

During the Q2, we hired a Chief Digital Officer, Cheryl Capital, to lead our bricks to put strategy. We believe that the future of the fitness industry is about providing people with a high quality in person experience coupled with the ability to engage and service them outside our 4 walls. We're providing them with many other benefits as well as differentiated premium content to make it even easier to get the most of the membership. We believe that there may be an opportunity for us to aggregate other wellness categories into our app at a disruptive value all geared towards casual first timers. We continue to pilot Plus in a limited number of stores to test price elasticity included as a bundled offering with our Black Card membership.

We expect to run this test for the balance of 2021 and look forward to sharing more on possible offerings in early 2022. In June, nearly 40% of PF Plus subscribers joined our bricks and mortar locations, underscoring that consumers want a more omnichannel fitness experience. I'm proud of the efforts our franchisees, headquarters staff and club staff who persevere during the pandemic to keep our system strong, and I'm very excited to now have nearly all stores reopen. There's a dislocation in the fitness industry with 22% of the gyms permanently closed due to the financial impact from COVID through the Q2, while at the same time more Americans are realizing that fitness is essential to physical, mental and emotional well-being. After shutdowns, quarantined and isolation, They are seeking a sense of community.

We believe we are a place that fills that need with our affordable non feminine workout environment that gets people moving and confident as they go on vacations again, head back to the office or see family and friends they haven't seen in a long time. Importantly, our franchisees believe this as well. As a result, we now expect to be at the high end of our 75 to 100 new store openings range for 2021, reflecting their growing confidence in the strength of our business in near term growth prospects. Tom will get into more specifics

Speaker 3

on our outlook for the balance of

Speaker 2

the year in his remarks. We also announced today that we signed an agreement to accelerate growth in Mexico with a joint venture made up of a prominent local retail services company and one of our largest U. S. Developers. The agreement is for a minimum of 80 new stores over the next 5 years in addition to the 5 stores we currently have in Mexico.

I'm extremely pleased that we have added 1,500,000 members in the 1st 7 months of this year. With nearly 1 quarter of all gyms closed due to COVID, I believe that the opportunity in front of is significant. With so much potential given the changing market dynamics and the tailwinds behind the health and wellness, the 4,000 plus long term domestic store opportunity looks better and better. I always knew that we would come out of the pandemic even stronger, but the pace is even faster than I expected. I always come back to the fact that we are a purpose led brand on a mission to change people's lives Better, which is what the U.

S. And the world needs more than ever. I'll now turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I get into the review of our financials, I want to touch on a couple of key topics starting with store expansion. During the quarter, we opened 24 new stores bringing our total count to 2,170. As Chris said, we now expect to be at the top end of the 75 to 100 new store range for the year, reflecting brings a growing confidence of our franchisees to accelerate their development plans. It also reflects the strengthening of their balance sheets.

Several franchisee groups are taking advantage of the increased supply of real estate. As a reminder, we don't typically go after the real estate from gyms that have closed. We look for big box retailers that occupy a 20,000 square foot space. We believe we're even more Interactive to landlords given that no Planet Fitness locations permanently closed because of the pandemic, which strengthened our position as a tenant of choice. We're not necessarily seeing rents come down yet, but we are hearing from franchisees that landlords are sometimes offering more tenant improvement dollars.

In general, we are seeing a more favorable real estate market and historically unseasonable membership trends, which have been the catalyst for some of our franchisees to accelerate their development pipelines. I would categorize franchisee sentiment as bullish as membership levels continue to climb. Next, I want to elaborate on Chris' comments about the state of our business last year in the Q2. As previously mentioned on last quarter's call, we are not reporting a Q2 system wide same store sales growth number due to the fact that the majority of our stores were not billing in the prior year period. We assume we will resume reporting system wide same store sales in the Q3.

As a reminder, our same store sales results are function of the change in membership trends over the trailing 12 months compared to the year ago period. As of the end of Q2, we had 6 consecutive months of sequential net member growth, but our membership levels were still below prior year. Black Card penetration increased to 62.6%, up 191 basis points to last year contributing to continued growth in average monthly rate. Now I'll turn to our Q2 financial results. Total revenue increased $97,000,000 or 241.1 percent to $137,300,000 from $40,200,000 in the prior year period.

The increase was driven by revenue growth across all three segments. The increase in Franchise segment revenue was primarily due to growth in royalties, NAF and franchise and other fees primarily attributable to COVID related temporary store closures in Q2 last year. The increase in revenue in the corporate store segment was also primarily due to COVID related temporary store closures as well as the impact of 7 new corporate stores opened compared to Q2 2020. Equipment segment revenue increases were driven by higher equipment sales to new and existing franchise owned stores due in part to temporary store closures related to COVID last year. Our cost of revenue, which primarily relates to the direct cost of equipment sales to new and existing franchise owned stores amounted to $18,500,000 compared to $8,500,000 a year ago.

Store operation expenses, which relate to our corporate owned store segment were $28,400,000 compared to $14,700,000 in Q2 last year. The increase was primarily attributable to lower operating and payroll expenses last year with the COVID related temporary closures along with higher expenses with the new stores we opened in the last 12 months. SG and A for the quarter was $21,800,000 compared to $15,900,000 a year ago. The increase was driven by higher incentive and stock based compensation, travel expenses and expenses associated with our mobile app compared with the prior year period. National Advertising Fund expense was $13,500,000 compared to $10,900,000 in the prior year period.

Adjusted EBITDA was $55,600,000 compared to a loss of $9,300,000 in the prior year period. A reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to GAAP net income or loss can be found in the earnings release. By segment, franchise Adjusted EBITDA was $51,800,000 corporate store adjusted EBITDA was $10,400,000 and equipment adjusted EBITDA was 5,600,000 Adjusted net income was $18,200,000 and adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.21 Now turning to the balance sheet. As of June 30, 2021, we had total cash of $527,400,000 compared to $515,800,000 on December 31, 2020. This was comprised of cash and cash equivalents of $469,100,000 compared to 439,500,000 and $58,200,000 $76,300,000 of restricted cash respectively in each period.

Total long term debt excluding financing cost was $1,780,000,000 as of June 30, consisting of our 3 tranches of securitized debt and $75,000,000 of variable funding notes. Our securitized debt structure is covenant light. We have 2 maintenance Governance, a debt service coverage ratio and a total system wide sales threshold. These are both tested quarterly, calculated on a trailing 12 month basis and reported on a roughly 2 month lag. In our most recent debt covenant reporting period of June 5, 2021, we had a 13% and an 81 percent cushion to the 1st triggering event for our debt service coverage ratio and system wide sales covenant, respectively.

We believe we have sufficient headroom for our 2 maintenance covenants, especially now with nearly all of our stores open. Additionally, I'd like to point out that this was final reporting period with Q2 2020 included in our trailing 12 month calculation. This was our toughest quarter financially last year and As a result, we believe it was a trough from a DSCR standpoint. Now to our outlook for the balance of 2021. With vaccines readily available across the nation, strong membership growth trends and just under 5 months remaining in this year, we have better insight into what we believe our performance will be across key metrics.

However, I'd like to note that our current view for 2021 assumes there is no major resurgence of COVID that causes member disruptions, whether it be a shutdowns or more stringent mask mandates that results in a significant change in membership trends, particularly as the delta variant is causing case counts to spike across the U. S. We have already discussed that we expect to be at the high end of our 75 to 100 new store opening range. As a reminder, last quarter, we noted that we expect equipment replacement to be approximately 50% of our total equipment revenue this year. We continue to believe this will be the case.

With respect to our corporate store segment, it's important to note that our corporate clubs are primarily in markets that were most impacted by temporary shutdowns from COVID and were in the group of stores that were temporarily closed the longest, which as we've said is the biggest factor impacting a store's recovery to pre COVID levels. Additionally, the vast majority of our corporate stores are mature stores. Therefore, we expect lower revenue and profit for the balance of this year and into next year for our corporate store segment compared to 2019 levels. We still believe in the strategic importance and viability of our corporate store portfolio. It will just take a longer period of time for those stores to return to previous financial performance levels.

Now let's turn to SG and A. There are 2 drivers for increased SG and A spend versus 2019. First, our investments into future growth engines for the business, including our bricks with click strategy, IT infrastructure and franchise marketing. For example, as Chris mentioned, on digital, we have a new Chief Digital Officer who is leading our efforts for an omni channel experience for our members. From a marketing perspective, we have invested to promote our app, support California store reopenings and participate in lobbying efforts for the fitness industry.

The second driver is compensation, including having additional leadership positions as well as typical compensation growth. So when you take all of this together, we believe that our full year revenue will be between $530,000,000 $540,000,000 We expect SG and A to to be in the low $90,000,000 range. We believe adjusted EBITDA will be between $200,000,000 $210,000,000 and we expect that adjusted earnings per share will be between $0.65 and $0.70 Finally, our pace of recovery has been faster than we expected and our membership growth is highly encouraging. As I mentioned earlier, our same store sales results are a function of the change in membership levels over the trailing 12 months compared to the prior year period. We cycle the most significant member declines in Q3.

We expect that our same store sales will become positive given our expectation that Q3 membership growth and membership levels will exceed that of last year. However, I want to reiterate that this outlook assumes there is not another prolonged operational setback, whether through mask mandates, temporary shutdowns or other less tangible ways that COVID can affect the American psyche and in turn our business. But we know that our business model is resilient And while the near term is somewhat difficult to predict, we believe that we are well positioned financially and strategically to capitalize on the value creating opportunities emerging as the country comes out of the pandemic. And with that, I will turn it over to the operator for Q and A.

Speaker 5

Your first question comes from the Janhain Bocko from Guggenheim. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Chris, given what's happening with membership, What do you think about promotional activity that you're going to run between now year end? Is it are you more inclined to be more promotional Because members would respond or can you be less because they're naturally coming back?

Speaker 2

Good question. Yes. Right now, we have nothing Outside of the norm from a marketing standpoint of scheduling, it looks pretty similar to last not last year or years in the past. So regular cadence. But what's really interesting and you kind of mentioned on your question is that, what's more intriguing actually is the kind of The organic demand we're seeing on off promo days, it's quite remarkable, something we've never seen before.

It's even off promo days, the demand is It's just there regardless. So it's so we'll do a normal cadence of marketing, but the membership is extremely strong right now in all generations.

Speaker 6

And maybe secondly, right, when you think about the Black Card pricing test, Kieran, you're going about that pretty deliberately, I think compared to the last two increases, right, right. I think you tested it for a

Speaker 2

couple of months and then

Speaker 6

went with it. Is that because of COVID or is that because you're trying to figure out Whether people will pay for the digital content and whether you want to include it in the Black Card pricing or do it separately?

Speaker 4

I'd say a little bit of both.

Speaker 2

I mean, it's been pilot for that reason, so we can test whether it's the $24.99 the right number? Is it more? Is it less? Is digital driving some acquisition, higher acquisition or not? Or at least maintaining the same Black Card percentage through the higher increase in rates.

So a little bit of all that, John. But I think we'll always have the PF Plus Digital separate and apart from the Black Card Bundle. I think for a few reasons. I think one, we've seen that people are doing plus and then migrating into bricks and mortar and about 40% of The non bricks and mortar members who have subscribed to PF Plus have gone on to join bricks and mortar after. So it's definitely kind of they're dipping their toe in the water and then they convert into bricks and mortar The fact which is encouraging, it's really only the marketing vehicle for us.

But it also sets a bar of perceived value so that when you get the bundle, it looks like it'd be even a better deal with bundle because you see the Off the Street price. So I think we'll always have both. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Next question is from the line of Randy Konik from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Yes.

Speaker 3

Thanks a lot. So I have a question, one for Chris and one for Tom. I guess, Chris, in the press release, you talked about having in meeting and possibly exceeding your long term target of 4,000 locations in the United States. So Can you elaborate a little bit more because I think you're getting more kind of bullish about the long term unit potential, especially as your competitors are closing. So And I guess, Tom, when I look at the EBITDA dollar guidance at the high end for the year.

It implies an EBITDA margin of about 39%, I believe, and Your prior peak in EBITDA margin, I believe, was in 2017 at 43%. So just want to get some color on how we should be thinking about a little bit more into the medium term around where the EBITDA margins should really sit for the business and to know if the elevated SG and A in 2021 will subside in growth rate in 2022, I. E, we should see some EBITDA margin expansion next year. Just curious on that. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Randy. This is Chris. Yes, that 4,000 potential, you probably heard of us talk in the past even pre COVID where we were most of our new unit sales for Franchise Development. We're in existing territory that we had already sold, probably, 8 years ago, and we might have sold it for 10 stores in County and we know a lot more now than we did back then.

And franchisees are coming to us and we thought it holds 10 and now it holds 14 based on What we know today. So we were already thinking that the 4,000 might be on the lower side of what the potential is now. Coming out of COVID, I think We've quite a few things going on. On top of the 22% of the industry was shut down, which is amazing out of the 41,000 stores, I think 22% have shut And that does skew higher in the boutique arena as opposed to full service gyms. It's about 14% of gyms have closed, but about 27% of boutiques have closed.

So it does skew higher boutiques. But nonetheless, it's 22% of gyms that are no longer in business. So you have that on top of I think what we're seeing here with the organic growth I mentioned is just It's just the demand I think coming out of COVID of people realizing, everything you see points to the fact through COVID that being overweight or out of shape or Taking care of your health is one of the contributing factors of hospitalization and unfortunate death. So I think people are really paying attention to their health and wellness more so coming out of this. So I think the industry has a huge tailwind coming out of this probably for many years ahead.

I think it's I think we're going to see something probably the industry hasn't seen before. So I think to your question, I think there's no doubt With gyms closed down, the strength of our model, the fact that we're going after casual first timers and 40% of our joints still today have not gone to a gym in their life And that holds true too for the Q2. So, we're really getting people off the couch for the first time and it's those are the people who need the most help. And also, As we all know in less fortunate neighborhoods, they're also more affected by COVID and 25% of our gyms are in neighborhoods that the government classifies

Speaker 7

as low income. So we're definitely

Speaker 2

filling a need here and I believe So we're definitely filling a need here and I believe the 4,000 probably is on the light side. So I think once all this dust settles, it's

Speaker 4

And Randy, on the P and L question. I think as we come through this with the different puts and takes by segment, we talked about the corporate store segment being in the markets that were affected longer. So that certainly has an impact there. And also the franchise segment, our membership levels while rebounding are still, have been rebounding more recently, where in 2019 they were kind of pretty Strong right from the start. So it's a bit of a timing based on the subscription model, but we don't see anything kind of of 43.

It is a little bit of kind of the depressed revenues in the near term and some of the changes across our three segments. I think when you think about SG and A though, we do as Chris mentioned, we have made incremental investments both in terms of people, systems and marketing to support our app back to our bricks and clicks strategy. I think In the main, we run the business with a pretty frugal mindset, but where we think there's an opportunity to invest in, we're going to do that. So I think It's a balance of being frugal where we should and also being thoughtful about the investments we need to make to really power up We see as a big opportunity.

Speaker 3

Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Next question is from Oliver Chen from Cowen. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Hi, thank you. Chris and Tom, it sounded like the membership The trends were running better than you expected given your prepared remarks. What drove that upside relative to your expectations. And then second, on the bricks and clicks strategy, what are you most excited about? Why was now the right time for a Chief Digital and how might this impact the models and membership and or churn?

Just what generally is on the roadmap? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Oliver, on the sharing. On the growth in the membership, what's really driving this today and what we typically see after really after the month of April, honestly, mature stores. Mature store We typically not grow at all pretty much the rest of the year after the winter growth months. And in a lot of cases, Oliver, mature stores have actually declined slightly throughout the rest of the So what we're seeing now, which is something we've never seen before, is that the mature stores are growing in a time of year that they typically don't really.

So they add a lot of new members in the Q1, call it, even through April, and then they'll either maintain or retract some over the rest of the year. But for the year they're ahead, but they lose some throughout the rest of the year. We're not seeing that right now. We're actually seeing that even the mature stores continue to grow in months that they typically don't grow. So that's really writing that.

So that organic demand in the sale periods are extremely strong, which is something else to see. I mean, in the month of June or July to grow like that is just something we've never who would have had, this industry we hold on for dear life in the summertime, honestly. And it's amazing to see something this time of year. I think with the bricks and clicks, and it's really still in the infancy stage here, but I think it's many years to follow. But and I said this in the previous calls, if you think about this industry, we open our doors and we turn the lights on and unless somebody uses the facility, we don't offer them anything, Right.

They pay us every month, but we don't give them any service outside the 4 walls. So I think in any way we can provide them some level of service, and engagement outside our 4 walls as well as inside, but outside the full walls can only help with customer satisfaction and ultimately only help with retention and stickiness. So And that's why it's a great platform as it is now, but it's really just the beginning of a platform that's built to be able to add more and more to it. And now it's strictly just exercise, but there's Krishna, I've always mentioned in meditation, is there self help, is there help with sleeping, it goes on and on with the platform. But even just the way people are engaging with us, I mean, the way they're joining now, it's 65% to 70% of our joints are digitally either through the website or through the app.

In 2019, that number was 30%, 35%. So even just the way people are joining is much, much higher than we've seen in the years past by double. So people are just the world's changed. I think this is something that's going Stick around with us. So, and now we're offering the upgrades in the app and we're offering Refer Our Friends in the app, which have a nationwide promotion going with that where a formal way that a member can refer somebody through the app and get credit for that referral and reward them for that referral, which is something that never existed before until we had this app and launched this platform.

So, it's just a way I think that for us to be able to engage our members and provide them more, and get more. So it's it can only help enable satisfaction as the customer goes and only drive stickiness longer term.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Chris. And lastly, usage. How have usage trended? And what are your

Speaker 2

Yes. We ended June with about 90% of 2019 levels, so almost back to normal. Many of the generations are back to pre COVID. The boomers are still lagging some, But they're trending in the right direction now, which is great. So we're almost back to what we normally see.

And usage is about The same too. Yes, usage is about the same too, but average member is using about 6 times per month.

Speaker 8

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. Best regards.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Oliver.

Speaker 5

Next is from the line of Joe Altobello from Raymond James. You may ask your question.

Speaker 3

Hey, guys. This is actually Adam on for Joe.

Speaker 9

I know you mentioned that the guidance assumes, I guess, doing Nothing unexpected in the form

Speaker 3

of like shutdowns or mass mandates, etcetera, all that being quite unpredictable and dynamic. That said, have you seen any impact on membership so far? And I know it's early from Delta in recent weeks either the pace of new joints are canceled and may have maybe too recent to

Speaker 2

even be able to pick up on

Speaker 9

those trends. But have you guys seen anything on that regard?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, we haven't been watching it closely because we did see some of that reaction back, if you remember, if you recall, last summer when Some of the things are spiking in August and stuff. We saw some of the market react to that, but we're not seeing that with the Delta virus, nationally or regionally.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's encouraging. And one more, if I could. I believe New York City imposed a rule requiring proof of vaccination to enter gyms. Do you think that prospect might slow membership or store growth in any way in the near term?

Speaker 2

I mean, it could. We haven't seen it yet, but it's just A little bit of a hurdle here for people to work out, but the big question is how long it goes on for. But we haven't seen it affect things yet. Out of the entire portfolio, we only have about 95 clubs that are masked all the time and about 31 clubs that are masked while not while exercising, but while walking around. So it's not as broad as you might think, especially in the Northeast is

Speaker 10

all you hear.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thanks, Chris, and congrats on the encouraging membership trend.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Next is from Jonathan Komp. Please also state your company name. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Yes. Hi, thanks. It's John Komp from Baird. I want to follow-up maybe a little bit of a bigger picture question. But as you look at the momentum and the membership you're seeing and The bullish tone that you cited, how do you think about whether you're doing enough to stay ahead of some of your competition?

I know you cited some of the metrics for gyms that have closed, but there's other of your peers that are seeing similar trends. So maybe just Do you think you're doing enough to stay ahead? And as you think about plans to stay ahead, how should you share Those costs or those investments between Planet and your franchisees?

Speaker 2

Yes, good question. We you might recall last Taylor, the last year we actually put in some about $10,000,000 of corporate marketing dollars just to reinforce the math and to kind of supercharge it to get it going. We don't see the need to do that just yet or right now, not that we wouldn't. I'd definitely keep the optionality open there, but I don't see right now with The way the membership trend is heading and how fast it's growing. And as you know, John, the NASH and the LAP spend, the national advertising fund, the local advertising is is 9% of the membership dollars.

So the faster that the membership increases, the quicker those dollars replenish and get larger. So Right now, we see no reason to do that just yet. And there's no doubt that our excitement about the membership growth It's definitely shared with the franchisees, the amount of text messages I get in the emails about people saying they couldn't believe what they're seeing in the month of July or June. So that's really what we've said this all along. That's really what the franchisees need to see to get, replace their balance sheets, but also feel confident enough that it's time to The time to stop moving here, it's not to stop negotiating leases and get clubs open.

So, which hence why we went to the top high range of our 35 to 100, which as this goes through and put the delta virus aside of us for a minute because who knows what happens and I don't feel that it will go crazy on us. But The one that holds true, there's no reason why we shouldn't start to see some really good growth here, unit wise, for the next few years here now that printed these are out looking at roasting.

Speaker 11

Yes, that's great. Maybe one follow-up then as we think about trying to model out the equipment revenue in the years ahead. Just thinking 2019, I think it was close to $250,000,000 Any broad stroke thoughts about how we should think about next year for

Speaker 4

Yes, John, it's Tom. We're really not commenting on 2022 at this point. We'll do that on our year end call. But I think once all these extensions have kind of run their course. We expect that at sometime in 2022, we'll be back on kind of a normal rhythm, Assuming there's no disruption with COVID, but sometime in 2022 back on a normal rhythm in terms of both store development and re equipped cycles.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

You bet. Thanks, John.

Speaker 5

Next is from Jonathan Vanco from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Hi, thank you. Maybe the increase works at The top end of the unit development range to some extent is the answer. But can you comment on how year 1 volumes are doing? I mean, if you were to look at, for example, the stores that are open in the last 12 months, how they've been doing relative to previous years. And I'm especially interested On the 2021 openings, specifically how those have comped relative to the years past.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, John, it's Tom. I'll start and maybe others will add. So I think in terms of if we wind the clock back, the stores that opened last this year, we're clearly softening historical norms. The stores that opened more in Q4 started to get closer to what we would normally expect and the stores that we open this year are above expectations

Speaker 2

when

Speaker 4

it comes to the 1st year 1st months in the 1st year of ramping. Very encouraging. And again, it's yet another kind of green signal that our franchisees are seeing that gets them very bullish.

Speaker 12

And above expectations, I mean, would that mean that you're, for example, higher than your 2019 class or there's still Yes, some drag in the unit

Speaker 10

volume. Higher.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's fantastic. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Next is from Simeon Siegel from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Thanks, everyone. Congrats on the ongoing progress. Chris, sorry if I missed, I think you touched on it, but can you speak to the composition of new members, it's a change versus pre COVID. I think you mentioned the 40% first timers, but can you maybe speak to the percent coming from competitor closures or reactivations from with your own COVID lapsed customers. And then, Tom, did you guys give the average royalty rate?

I think you normally get that. So sorry if I missed that. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Our rejoins are still running as they were in the Q1. About 30% of our joins are rejoins. The members of us in the past coming back and that typically runs about 20%, so it's quite a bit higher than what we've seen in the years past. About 3% of the joins are coming from closed competition today.

And you're right, about 40% are first timers coming to us from the couch essentially. And Gen Z population is definitely still joining at A rate that we haven't seen ever in the past quarter that elevated the Gen X in millennials are about the same, boomers are slightly behind.

Speaker 4

And yes, I mean, the royalty rate for the quarter was 6.3% versus 6.4% last year, and that's really just of stores that were open and billing last year compared to this year. No fundamental structural change or anything.

Speaker 7

Perfect. Thank you. And then just any notable difference in economics for Mexico versus U. S. As you roll that out?

Speaker 2

No, not really. No, the royalty rates and all that, the development of the 80 stores over 5 years. It's a good group out of Mexico and they partnered with 1 of our largest here U. S. Franchisees who has almost 100 locations.

You might have heard the press release, but the group there has brought Forever 21 and Old Navy as well So we think it will be a great partnership to have the lay of the land there.

Speaker 8

Great. Best of luck for

Speaker 7

the rest of the year, guys. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Simeon.

Speaker 5

Next question is from Peter Keith from Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hey, thanks everyone and my congratulations as well on the continued progress. Quick question,

Speaker 9

I guess, for the revenue guide that you provided at 5:30 to 5:40. What would you have roughly for a year end member count to get to that range?

Speaker 4

Hey, Peter, it's Tom. We actually don't provide guidance on the member outlook. And as you know, things are still kind of fluid, but in a typical year, we've seen very unseasonable trends in membership this year, as Chris alluded to. And on our last call, it was a couple of data points. Now it's more data points as we've gone through the quarter and into July.

Fiscal year versus what typically happens and stir all that together to come up with how we guided revenues, but unfortunately, we don't provide membership outlooks.

Speaker 9

Okay, fair enough. And my follow-up question is just on The pace of new gym openings, you've guided us behind in the range for 2021. I know you're not guiding for 2022, but I guess I'm interested in how the conversations with franchisees are evolving. I think in the past, you've talked about franchisees maybe wanting to get through that January selling season before making go or no go decisions on 22 openings. Is that changing based on this faster number recovery path that you're seeing?

Could we see gyms open up sooner in 2022 based on the comments you're getting?

Speaker 13

Yes, Peter. I think the way we look at it is When things shut down back early last year and when it became apparent this is going to last for a while, As we've mentioned on some previous calls, the franchisees really shut down all their development activities, furloughing even some of the real estate folks on the team, because there really weren't they didn't know when they'd get back into kind of building new stores. And as you as we progress throughout the 2021 and quite frankly coming into or 2020 and then coming into 2021 with all the concerns around what would happen through holidays with respect to COVID-nineteen and then the vaccination rates We're just starting, the vaccines are just becoming available. And it's obviously, it's still continuing to increase some states better than others in terms of the vaccination rates and people more likely to kind of get out and try to get about their daily lives. And quite frankly, as Chris said earlier, I think it's the reasons we're seeing some of the trends we're having today.

So when you take all that into consideration, obviously franchisees with their own portfolio of stores, they see what's going on with their business and We obviously give them updates in terms of the system and the encouragement that not only we have a Corporate, but they have in their own individual market or markets, they see these trends real time as well. And that's why as Tom indicated in our guidance that we believe we'll be at the high end of that range that we had previously put out. Some franchisees are clearly out there starting to do their deals again. Yes. The issue obviously is the timeframe.

Beginning to end in kind of a normal timeline circumstance. It's about 9 months from the time that you say, okay, I want to try to find a location in this particular market And you start working with your real estate team internally, your commercial real estate brokers, with our team, our corporate team that we have to try to put a number of sites out there for consideration and then start negotiating LOIs and How much tenant improvement allowances they'll give you, etcetera. It's not a 9 month process to ultimately get it open. And so here we are now In the back half

Speaker 7

of the

Speaker 13

year, franchisees clearly are out in the markets now and starting to do deals, certainly starting to get allies going. At this point, we're clearly not back at that run rate we were when this all kind of came down last year in March. And a lot of that is just frankly the timeline to get there. I think you've heard us say before and Certainly, you're saying it again is that we've got a ton of confidence in the model and what has happened in terms of the recovery to this point. And it gives us a lot of confidence that we can get back into the kind of growth that we had before.

It's just a matter of when and not if. And so at this point, as Tom said, we're not commenting on 2022, but we can say that clearly the franchisees willingness to get out there and start surfacing sites is certainly better than it was even 69 days ago.

Speaker 9

All right. That's great. Very helpful. Thanks so much, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks, Peter.

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Speaker 5

Next question is from Paul Golding from Macquarie. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks for taking the question. My first question is if you have any update on Australia and the rollout there given the prolonged snap lockdowns that we've seen over the last several

Speaker 4

weeks. Yes, sure. So I think We just have a few stores there, but we get an update from our franchisees. And it is sort of on again, off again. It's tough, but I think overall when they're open, the trends that they see are still encouraging them and they're forging ahead with their development plans for the future.

Speaker 6

So that 35 unit estimate over the next several years is still the target for now?

Speaker 2

Yes. Great. I think 4 of the 5 is closed right now. It should be open maybe by the end of the month, but

Speaker 4

it's moving target. Yes.

Speaker 6

Got it. And then on plus were there any other engagement stats you could give with respect to Number of workouts in a particular month that Younique might be doing. Just to get a sense of the uptake there and any sense, I guess, as a follow on to Oliver's question around, Is this intended to be top of funnel? Do you see it evolving into more of a standalone maybe with its own branding and marketing. How should we think about that in the model?

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Yes. So, still a lot of testing to be had here. We haven't released any subscription numbers yet, but I think there's a couple of ways to look at it too is that there's also a lot of app app holders that aren't even PF Plus subscribers. So to your comment about being top of funnel, you're exactly right.

So there's a lot of people that engage with the app as unpaying members that convert to bricks and mortar and sometimes convert to PF Plus first. So it's kind of a tough to funnel and it really is a whole new marketing vehicle for us. But we have seen out of the people that were subscribers to PF+ that were non bricks and mortar members, it was 40% now have converted to bricks and mortar. 1st quarter was 30% and the 4th quarter was 20%. So you'll see how people are engaging with Plus and then becoming bricks and mortar members after the fact, and also 70% of the members who have plus have also used bricks and mortar at the same time.

So they're definitely engaged. And about 80% of the subscribers are actually current Planet Fitness members who have gone on to pay more for more. And the majority of those are Black Card members, which is, hence why we're doing the test with the bundle as well to see if we can get more price out of just all Black Card members, not just people who opt in for it. So A lot of learnings to be had, but I think it's just how we look at the top of funnel. Out of the out of all the app holders, about 9 about 12,000,000 downloads, 9,000,000 of the members.

The other 3,000,000 are non members or lapsed members that still have the app that we're able to engage with or engage with the app. So, A lot more to be had there and be learned from, but we do have a lot of people that just have the app that not even paid subscribers that we can convert as well. So Just a lot more engagement to be had and to learn from.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks so much for that, Chris. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Yes. Welcome.

Speaker 5

Next question is from Chris O'Cull from Stifel. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Good afternoon, guys. Tom, I apologize if I missed this, but how much of the equipment revenue this quarter was re equipped? And how should we think about the ramp in replacement equipment revenue for the balance of the year?

Speaker 4

Yes. Hey, Chris. Sure thing. So in Q2, it was 60% of revenue, brings the first half to about 45% of total equipment revenue. And so we said that for the full year, we're staying with what we said on the last call, which is The reequipse would constitute about 50% of our full year equipment revenue.

Speaker 10

Okay. That's helpful. And then is the net off season growth you're seeing from either is it from higher gross sign ups or lower cancellations or both? And I'm just curious if you've seen retention change at all from the May June promos after the initial month compared to maybe Similar type of promos that you ran prior to COVID?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's both actually. And we're just seeing it's almost like the year is up and was upside down. Our May June was 20 times June of 2019. And our May expiration on our sale was the highest net member Growth Day even outside of January this year. So definitely demand is upside down and people are coming in higher now than they did in the Q1, Certainly last year, that's for sure.

So, yes, I think it's just people are out and about and resurging. The business is just totally different than what we've ever seen before. So I think there's a factors in closings, people paying more attention to their health and wellness. And I think it's time will tell when God forbid anything happens crazy in the world with the Delta variant. But No, I think it could be a long term trend that we see for the years ahead.

Okay. Thanks, guys. Inc.

Speaker 5

Last question is from Alex Barry from Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Chris, I think in

Speaker 9

the prepared remarks, you made

Speaker 7

a comment that it's Hard to see whether those unseasonal joints will continue. Maybe could you talk through the cancellation rate of new joints within the 1st few months versus normalized levels, Especially with some

Speaker 14

of the no commitment promos you guys have been running. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. We haven't seen any change in any kind of retention or attrition or increased attrition without any kind of commitments or anything like that. So nothing there has changed. So that's all good news. And one of the things we've seen in what our consumer studies is the no commitment messaging.

It's almost more important than the actual enrollment fee discount. As people just want to know that if they can get out, they can. And a lot of our members, 40% of the ones who have driven their life, they're already thinking about how do I cancel this thing before I join. And It's unfortunate, but that's kind of the this industry has kind of been notoriously bad for cancellation policies and we want to make it break in all those barriers. So We haven't seen any increased attrition with those sort of offers.

Speaker 7

Perfect. That's really helpful. Best of luck going forward.

Speaker 2

Thank you for your time. Thanks, Alex.

Speaker 5

That ends our question and answer session. I'll turn the call back over to the presenters for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Good. Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining us today. It's, as you can tell in October, we could be more excited with the momentum the business has, something that I've never seen in my almost 30 years here, and excited as well that not only our staff here, but our franchisees Feel the same sentiment. And I think this is what we were all hoping that was going to happen and quite frankly, higher than we expected it would be, even though we knew it was going to come back that psyche of the customer, they just want to get back and get back to health and fitness and now more than ever.

So all good news and I look forward to the bolsters of the franchisees and getting back to development growth and getting more people off the couch. So thank you all.

Speaker 5

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

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