Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH)
NASDAQ: PRCH · Real-Time Price · USD
9.63
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT - Market closed
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Investor Day 2024

Dec 5, 2024

Lois Perkins
Head of Investor Relations, Porch Group Inc

Thank you for being here. Oh, there we go. I've got the mic now. We're going to get started in a few minutes. I just wanted to point out a few things first. So you're aware, there is a camera at the back. So if you do grab any refreshments or go to the bathroom, if you wouldn't mind just avoiding walking in front of that, that would be great. The prepared remarks will be just shy of three hours, and then we're going to Q&A afterwards. During that time, we will take questions from the analysts during the live stream. If I can ask for a maximum of two questions, please. If you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand, and we will bring a mic to you so you can be heard on the webcast.

Please start with your name and where you're from, and then ask your question, and the team will be here to take it. After the event, the team will be around the venue ready to take even more questions from you. We hope you can really use the time and get what you need out of them and spend some time getting to know them. And what else do we have? So yeah, it'll be about 60 minutes of Q&A after the event, and there'll also be some refreshments for you. And there's some really cool Porch swag. I know you guys love our T-shirts, so please grab one of those as well.

My favorite brick and mortar.

Yes. And then after the two segments, we will take a five-minute break. So you'll be able to grab some refreshments there too. So we will get started in approximately a minute. So thank you. Okay. Okay. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining both in the room and on the webcast. We're excited to share today's update. First, I have some important disclaimers for you. Today's presentation, including responses to your questions, reflects management's views as of today, December 5th, 2024. We do not undertake any obligations to update or revise this information and urge you to read closely the information on this slide in the footnotes throughout the presentation and in the appendix. Porch is providing guidance and targets for future periods throughout this presentation based on current market conditions, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this presentation.

Actual results may vary due to a number of factors, and there is no guarantee that we will be able to achieve these results. We will make forward-looking statements about our expected future financial or business performance or conditions, business strategy, and plans, including our financial outlook, guidance, and targets for future periods, and discuss the expected benefits and timing of the launch of the reciprocal exchange, all of which are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. We disclaim any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether in response to new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

We encourage you to consider the risk factors and other risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings, as well as the risks described in these slides, for additional information, including factors that could cause our results to differ materially from current expectations. We will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures during today's presentation. Please refer to the appendix for a reconciliation of historical non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. For future periods, we are unable to provide reconciliations of non-GAAP measures without unreasonable effort because certain information necessary to calculate such measures on a GAAP basis is unavailable or dependent on the timing of future events outside our control. As a reminder, this presentation is available on our website, and this webcast will be available for replay after this event on the company's website at ir.porchgroup.com.

Shortly, I'll hand over to Matt, our CEO, Chairman, and Founder, for his welcome. Then we'll cover the insurance, software, and data segments before taking a short five-minute break. Then we'll cover Consumer Services and the financials before wrapping and heading to Q&A. So with that, I will hand over to Matt to get us started. Thank you.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Thank you, Lois. Do a quick mic check. Thank you. It is awesome to be here together. Thank you for being here. Hello to folks around the world. Your time is valuable. We appreciate you spending it with us here today. Before I dive in, kind of set up the day, talk about what's ahead for the business, I do want to take a minute to be able to orient folks that don't know us as well and to look back. I started this company about 12 years ago, and before even having an idea of what the company was going to be, I was coming out of a couple of great runs building some other companies. I knew I wanted to build one more company, and so this was going to be and is going to be the last company for me.

And I had the idea, just the feeling of wanting to go build a truly great company. That's what I talk about with the team. A company that's going to be enduring, that's going to live long past me. And the word that I would really kind of focus on is to build a great company. And what is that? That's, yes, of course, building a huge and valuable company. It's building a business that solves a real problem in the world, makes a dent in the world. It's how you build the company as well. And we'll talk later today about how we operate, our values, the people, because at the end of the day, it's execution. You have the right people in the room with you.

So with that idea, I was going through the process of building and moving into a home and started to hone on to, okay, the problem we wanted to go solve is on people's largest asset in their lives, the home. And we wanted to be able to go make that journey people have with their home easier, the moving process, the maintaining process, and then also protecting the home. And it was about seven, eight years ago where we decided, okay, we really wanted to focus on that area and specifically on homeowners' insurance. And so why? Why is it that we wanted to focus on insurance? It checked all of the boxes of the things that we wanted to go and focus on and build around. It's one of the most important services for homeowners, period.

But not only that, not only is it important, unlike other things you might help a homeowner with, when you provide them with insurance, when you're their partner for insurance, that customer is with you for a long, long period of time. It's one of the largest industries that there is. And not only that, the homeowners' insurance space is growing. And we'll talk more about that, but it's this uniquely massive and rapidly growing industry, which gives a big place to play. And then it's set up to change. The fact of the matter is it can be better. We'll talk about how we're approaching it uniquely. And that for us is a fun thing to go after. Okay, so we decided that. Again, this is eight years ago. We didn't have anything around our insurance operation at all.

You start to think about, okay, how are you going to be able to win? What are the things that you're going to do to set yourself up to be able to play in this space for a long period of time? Fundamentally, I think it comes down to a few things. Base level, what do you need to do differently to be able to win in homeowners' insurance? Number one, underwriting. You have to be able to understand and assess risk better than others, understand how you can price better. That is the core product of insurance at the end of the day: is, can you price risk effectively? Distribution. Can you reach the consumer more effectively or at a lower cost than others? And then lastly, the user experience. Can you build a product which is in some way different for the customer?

Foundationally, those were the ideas. We started thinking through, okay, how are we going to build differentiators, build competitive moats really around those three concepts? We started building out very unique strategies to be able to go and aggregate information about properties that nobody else would have. We started figuring out, okay, homebuyers is an incredibly important segment for homeowners' insurance. About 40% of all homeowners' insurance policies each year are purchased by homebuyers. There's a very small group of people. If you can identify who those people are and get access to those people early, you have a fundamental advantage. Not only did we start building out a user experience around homebuyers to make that move for them really easy, we started thinking about, okay, how do we create a different user experience by having more protection?

Building out our warranty offering, starting to integrate that, protecting more of their home. This is how our strategy came to life. Since that time, we have built out Vertical Software platforms in what we view are very strategic categories. We provide software for the home inspection industry. North of 40% of all home inspections that happen in the country are managed through our software system. If a homebuyer hires a home inspector, it's about a coin toss when the home inspector walks into that home and starts documenting everything about that home. That's our software that they're going to be using to collect all of this data to produce these 40- 60-page reports about this property. We still only have a 40% market share of providing software to title companies.

We provide software to mortgage companies, provide software to roofing contractors, all really to us key strategic verticals. We started building out experiences around Consumer Services, and so we started building out warranty offerings. We started building out moving services, help people to get TV and internet and security set up for their home, all these services that a homebuyer would need so we could provide a differentiated experience for them, and we started building out our data platform, and this is something that we really didn't talk that much about until more recently, but this has been a core part of our strategy really since the beginning, and in fact, I was going back and looking at some old presentations. This is a presentation, a slide from a deck before we'd even launched the company, so this is back from 2011.

Even from then, at the very beginning, we said, hey, data was going to be foundational to the platform that we were building and the company we were building. We use this for employees. We also use this for external investors. And so it's fun to go back and look where even then we were talking about, hey, we're going to map all of this data about properties. And we're going to map the products within properties, the appliances and the systems and the HVAC systems. We were going to understand who the homeowners are and build lots of unique information about them. Nicole's going to talk a lot more about this today, our data platform, the tech we build, and all the data that's in it.

But not only did we start to build out the data platform, we started to pull in all this unique data from our different software systems, different platforms. But we also did a couple of key strategic acquisitions along the way. So just after going public, we acquired a company called V12, which had played in the data industry for more than 15 years. We looked at lots of different companies. V12 was the right one for us. They already had first-party unique data sets, and they were aggregating. They were able to pull in and really extend our data platform. We acquired Homeowners of America. This was, again, probably the most important acquisition that we had done. We looked at lots of different regional insurance carriers.

This was the right one, not only because of the team, not only because they're in the right segments for us, they're focused on homebuyers as well, but also the data. So they had 15 years of claims data that we were able to pull into our data platform, unbelievably important for what we're building out from a data perspective, and we'll talk again more about that today, and so as we built that out, just recently, here within this last month or so, we've really hit this, I would say, inflection point and key milestone, and we're excited to have shared that.

Launching the reciprocal, getting the reciprocal approved and launching it here imminently in January is for us a really important milestone and something we've been working on for the last couple of years to structurally set up our insurance business in the way that we think is optimal as we go forward, and so we're going to be announcing Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange here today. That for us is, again, foundational as we look ahead, and it's going to be winning in three specific areas. Like I said, advantaged underwriting. Using all this data that we've aggregated to be able to understand risk and price more effectively by having the best experience for homebuyers, we want to be known as being the best option for homebuyers, and lastly, more protection.

So what I want to make sure is clear is that Porch really is a new kind of homeowners insurance company as we look ahead. And insurance very much is at the center for us. Okay, last thing before I look ahead, I do want to just kind of acknowledge the work that's happened since we had gone public. This is our first investor day. I've been spending a lot of time in that public process. And I'm proud looking back at what we said then of what we've been able to go and accomplish. But first, four years ago, insurance was really just part of the strategy. We talked about it. It was a very small business. We knew it was the big opportunity. We started communicating right then. It was core to what we wanted to go and do. But we certainly hadn't done it.

Clearly, you look at where we are today, insurance is at the center of what we are building. We were $72 million in revenue at that point in time. We're $450 million in revenue now. So certainly we have scaled up the business. And then lastly, we're profitable. So just in Q3, we announced record $17 million of Adjusted EBITDA. We also announced at that point in time guidance for the fourth quarter of $32 million of positive Adjusted EBITDA. And so $50 million or so in the second half of the year. The other key point that I would want to make is that we'll be profitable on an Adjusted EBITDA basis every quarter hereafter. And Shawn will talk more about that here today. Now let's look ahead. And this is what I'm obviously excited about in terms of what's coming up.

But there are some big things that we're going to be going after. So one, we are going to go scale our homeowners insurance business dramatically. In fact, we're going to talk today about how we're going to go build that business to $3 billion in premium. We're also going to talk about what we're going to go do in 2025 and 2026, building it to $500 million and $600 million respectively over the next couple of years, which to us is very attainable. Matthew will be spending time on that.

Nicole's going to talk about what we're actually doing with the data platform, not only using it to power and create differentiation for our homeowners insurance business, but also building a data business. And so this is a very large opportunity for us, something we've been waiting on for some time, and we are excited about being able to share.

We're refocusing on growth, so obviously organic, but also from an M&A perspective, we have a platform that can support M&A, and we're not doing that imminently, but as we look ahead, it is something we expect to be part of our strategy. And then lastly, we are going to be generating cash for our shareholders, and so we just announced a couple of days ago behind that, but I'm going to talk about and we're going to share our path to be able to go and produce $50 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 and $100 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. So that obviously is transformational for the business to be able to go and produce meaningful amounts of Adjusted EBITDA and cash, and Adjusted EBITDA for us is a very good proxy for cash flow.

I want to make a note that somebody just as they walked in, it's like, "Oh, throwing out some big targets." You'll see this today, which is the $100 million of Adjusted EBITDA is not based on exceptional assumptions. It's based on exceptional performance and execution and the design of the business. So as an example, mid-single-digit housing market growth over the next couple of years below what third parties are estimating. It includes things like our data business. Yes, it starts to have some impact in 2026, but not a huge impact in 2026. As I mentioned, $500 million of gross written premium in 2025, $600 million in 2026. Those are not huge exceptional numbers for us, things that we can go and execute against. It does include our corporate expense.

We've done a lot of work to be able to lower our corporate expense, and we get to see that really flow through over these next couple of years. So certainly that is included. But the thing I would want to impress upon you is just foundationally, structurally, with this go-forward design, it's just way more profitable. And we've been talking about that. This design was going to be meaningfully more profitable, but you'll see that in the numbers here that this is driven mostly by our insurance operation, and it is fundamentally more profitable for us as we look ahead. Okay, so here are the things that I want to make sure we get done today. Number one, I want you to really understand our new insurance business and operation, how it works, how it's structured, how the economics flow back to our shareholders.

Two, the businesses that we operate are very valuable strategically as it relates to building out our insurance operation. I want you to understand that they're also valuable in and of themselves. We've got some really great businesses, and we're going to share more about those businesses. I am confident. I am telling you today that we're going to be able to go and deliver this $100 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. I'm telling you that today. I believe in it. I see it. It's a very clear path for us to go do that. I want you to understand why I believe that and have confidence in that as well. And then lastly, even when we go and we deliver that $100 million of Adjusted EBITDA, I feel like we'll have just been getting started. So this opportunity ahead is massive for us.

And we're going to lay out how big of a business we think this is going to be and where we're going to be able to take this thing. But we're playing in some categories that we're really excited about, and we believe we positioned ourselves to build a really big business. And so we're going to go through that also. I believe deeply that this is a great time, frankly, the ideal time to be doing this, to spend time together because it is this key moment for a company. So I think it's a highly compelling investment. And hopefully, you agree. And if you do, we would love certainly for you to join us on this journey. Okay, let me set up the day over the next couple of hours, and then I will turn it over to the team.

So first, one thing in terms of how we're organizing the day. So looking back, if you recall, we had two core segments, our insurance segment and our Vertical Software segment. Our insurance segment looking back included our warranty business. Our Vertical Software included all of our transactional revenue that's built on top of our software businesses. Starting in 2025, we are changing those segments, and we're going to be going through today based on how we will be reporting on those segments here as we look forward next year. So our insurance business is what we'll go through first. We'll be talking about both our Insurance Services segment, which is a part of what Porch Group will own.

We'll also go through the reciprocal entity, Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange or PIRE, and make sure that it's clear that that's healthy, how it continues to be healthy, how it will scale. We'll go through our Software and Data business or segment. This is now pure Software and Data because we pulled out our Consumer Services, and that'll be the next segment that we'll go through. This now includes our warranty business, our moving services. All of that transactional revenue is in the Consumer Services segment. We'll then go through the financials. Let me just tee up the people that'll be presenting that information for you all. Matthew Neagle, he's our Chief Operating Officer. We have five divisions and five divisional leaders that report up into those three segments. Our business unit leaders report into those divisional leaders. Those divisional leaders report to Matthew.

Matthew works very closely with them on the day-to-day operation. So he really will be representing those collective set of businesses. He'll take us through the Insurance Services business, some of the Software and Data, some of the Consumer Services in partnership with a couple of other people. So Manisha is going to be our SVP of Finance, is going to be working with Matthew in the insurance business, and she'll be talking about the reciprocal and the health of the reciprocal, the financials behind it. Nicole leads our data platform and our data business. Nicole's worked with me for decades now, including previous companies. She will be spending time on the data side of Software and Data. And then lastly, Shawn, our CFO, will take us through the financials, including looking forward and where we're going. So again, thank you for being here.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

All right. I'm excited to talk to you guys about our insurance business. I've actually been with Porch since we launched Porch.com almost 11 years ago, and I'm excited because part of my presentation, I'll get to introduce Porch Insurance. Manisha will also be joining me to talk through the financials. As Matt mentioned, insurance is now at the center of Porch, but the entire set of capabilities are critical as the Software and Data and the Consumer Services help us to unlock those key differentiators of advantaged underwriting, being the best for home buyers and offering more protection. What I want to talk about today, we'll spend just a little minute on the opportunity we see in this industry. I'll share more about the team we've built to go after that opportunity and also the strategy, and the strategy, you'll hear more about the value prop of Porch Insurance.

You'll hear about the structure, this optimal reciprocal structure that we spent the last few years putting in place. And you'll hear how we see a path to get to $3 billion in premium, which is the next section. And then Manisha will walk you through both what the reciprocal economics look like and then what our insurance service segment that will flow into Porch Group. All right, let's take a minute on the opportunity. You guys all know insurance is a massive industry, but it's also growing. It's growing over 6%. Part of that is we've seen inflation and increase in home values, but there's also more weather risk. We actually see that as an opportunity because that's our job. We get to price risk and sell that as a financial product. So it's an opportunity for us. In addition, there is a lot of space in the industry.

You guys may not know this, but there are actually hundreds of carriers. You know the national ones, but there's many regional carriers. When we reach $3 billion in premium, we won't even be a top 10 insurance company in the United States. We have a lot of room to grow and play in the insurance market. Let's talk about the team. As you guys may know, we're launching Porch Insurance in just a few weeks. So we're letting our insurance team stay focused on that launch, but we do have a great team. As Matt mentioned, when we were looking to acquire an insurance company, we looked at a lot of different regional carriers, and HOA was by far the best, and part of that was the position they had built up in Texas and a number of other states, but also the team.

Ephraim is the general manager of our insurance business. Dante leads actuarial. They built HOA. They were there for over 10 years, and they're core to our team. But over the last few years, we've also assembled a deep bench of leaders from very established and successful insurance companies. Mike Capuzzi, who leads our ops and claims, he was an SVP at Allstate, which I think is a Fortune 100 company. Andrea Ferrari, she was VP of underwriting at Kin. She also built the underwriting team at Hippo. Chad, Nathan, and Janelle, they were leaders at Country Financial, Kemper, and USAA. On top of that, as a corporate team, we spend a lot of our time supporting the insurance business. So we think we have the right team to go after this opportunity. Let's talk a little bit about our strategy.

I'm excited that we are launching Porch Insurance on January 1st. So in a few short weeks, we'll sell our first Porch Insurance policies. But getting here, as Matt mentioned, has been 10 years in the making because the reason we can be a new kind of insurance company, member-owned, by home buyers and homeowners who care, is because of all of the different things we've done to build up the software and the data to create unique insights into homes and our Consumer Services platform, which will help us to differentiate our consumer experience. I want to take you guys through what we see as the value prop to consumers. First, we talk about protecting more. One of the reasons we can do this is because we actually have a decent-sized warranty company that has the know-how and capabilities to offer additional types of coverages.

And so we will offer additional coverages that are not typical in an insurance policy, things like Service Line or Refrigerated Product, Water and Sewer. And from a consumer, that means your insurance company just doesn't show up maybe never or once every 10 years when something really bad happens, but we're there when day-to-day things happen to you. We will also offer every policy member of Porch Insurance a free 90-day whole home warranty at no cost. This is for every policyholder, but it's especially nice if you're a new home buyer moving into your home. You don't want something to happen in those first important moments when you're trying to get your life situated. We will also help our consumers to reduce risk. We're able to do that, we think, in a special way because we know a lot about their home.

We have insights about their home that they may not recall or remember or read carefully, but we have them and can help to organize them for them. We'll be able to provide personalized home risks and recommendations based on those insights. We know for many homes what the serial number is on the appliances, so we can automatically track if there's any recall notices for any of your major appliances. We'll be able to send seasonal maintenance reminders, which can be customized to what we know is going on inside your home from the data that we have, and severe weather alerts, so in both cases, you can be proactive to reduce risk in your home, and then we have support for the things that you need to get done around the home through our virtual home assistant and a Porch App.

That Porch Home App will be a way for you to organize all the information around your home. Lastly, Porch Insurance is member-owned. So we have an opportunity to provide membership perks and discounts to Porch Insurance members. It will include up to a 16% discount for home buyers, discounts on warranty, ways to get things done around your home through handyman, and whenever you move to get somebody to help you with all parts of your move through the Porch Moving Concierge. I now want to take a moment to talk through Porch Insurance Reciprocal Exchange. We'll refer to it today as PIRE. We may also refer to it today as the reciprocal. At the highest level, PIRE will be a separate entity owned by policyholders. Porch Group will act as the operator of the reciprocal. On January 1st, we will sell HOA to the reciprocal.

One thing that's important about that is it means as of January 1st, all premium in all states, whether it's in HOA or Porch Insurance, will be under the reciprocal economics that we will talk through in detail today. In exchange for selling HOA to the reciprocal, Porch Group will get a surplus note. It'll be approximately $110 million, which may actually be higher based on how Q4 is wrapping up. And that'll be 9.75% + SOFR. And the interest from the surplus note will flow to the Porch Group P&L. The reciprocal will provide insurance to its members. It'll cover all of the claims. It'll keep the premiums and any surplus generated. And Manisha will talk through how the exchange will generate surplus. But importantly, the exchange will also be. Sorry, the reciprocal will also be responsible for other major variable costs, including agent commissions and reinsurance.

Porch Group is the operator of the reciprocal. So Porch Group is responsible for providing operating services to run the reciprocal. In exchange for that, Porch Group will get approximately a 20% take rate, which is both from commissions or fees from the reciprocal and fees from policies from consumers. Porch Group will also provide non-CAT quota share reinsurance to the reciprocal and will get approximately similar revenue from doing that. So to kind of give a little bit of recap, in terms of how the economics flow to Porch Group and to the Porch Group shareholders, we get about a 20% take rate for providing the operating services. We'll provide non-CAT quota share reinsurance, which will provide about a 20% revenue rate off of both of those are off the GWP. We will get interest from the surplus note, and that will also flow to our P&L.

In terms of who's covering what, Porch Group will have all of the employees in order to operate the reciprocal. Those are essentially all fixed costs. So as it grows, there'll be some operating scale in Porch Group to operate the reciprocal. The reciprocal will have the three main variable costs: claims, reinsurance, and then agent commissions. We've talked about this being an optimal structure, and I want to go over why we think it's the optimal structure. Firstly, this will provide a simple recurring revenue model based off of gross written premium. So from your guys' perspective, this will be a simple model, be high margin, quality recurring revenue. In addition, it will be more predictable. The reason is for Porch Group, the costs that we have are largely fixed. So a lot of the volatility and the variability is handled at the reciprocal.

We'll also have a much less seasonality, really limited seasonality on the Porch Group P&L because our take rate is based off of the amount of GWP, and it doesn't go up and down with what happened to be the weather that quarter. There's also opportunities through the reciprocal to drive surplus growth. Manisha will talk more about this. For those somewhat new to insurance, the amount of surplus you have determines how much premium you can support. Within the reciprocal, which is typical with the reciprocal, members will contribute 10% of their policy as surplus to the reciprocal, and the reciprocal has an opportunity, if needed, to raise surplus capital from third parties. The last advantage that we like is the consumer value we think it can provide by being member-owned.

Some of our consumer research shows people like to feel a part of something, and we can offer them additional discounts and perks for being a member of Porch Insurance. Okay. So we've covered the structure and the value prop. I now want to talk about who we're targeting. So within this big U.S. homeowners insurance market, we are particularly interested in home buyers. To start, we have a lot of insight into who they are. So we know about 90% of people who are going through a home buying experience before they buy the home. And then we also have fresh insights on those homes because of the way our data platform pulls from a number of privileged sources. But there are a couple of other reasons why we're excited about home buyers. Matt mentioned this one.

There are only 5%-7% of homeowners in a given year, but they represent over 40% of the new policies purchased, and what's exciting for us is what that means is targeting that really subset of homeowners, we think we can reach our target segment without having to invest in massive brand spend. The other thing that's cool about home buyers is actually at least 60% of people never bother to switch their insurance until they have to if they're buying a home with a mortgage, so if you buy a home with a mortgage, you have to get insurance, and you have to switch insurance, so everybody is starting fresh when they buy a home with a mortgage, which is most homes, and then 60% of those folks will never switch.

And so home buyers retain better than trying to compete in what we internally refer to as switchers, people who are in an existing home, they have an existing policy, and they're just shopping around for a lower price. Our internal HOA data shows homeowners retain about 30% better than if we acquire the customer from a carrier. And what's cool is about 90% of them are paying insurance through escrow. And so in a lot of ways, they don't actually see the insurance payment. It's just part of what they pay with their mortgage. We also think we can differentiate and target to lower-risk homes. We're well-positioned to identify lower-risk homes because of the data platform that we've built, which Nicole will go over next. Let me tell you how that would work. You take Jill.

So one of the things we've learned is that if you have an electrical panel with the appropriate capacity, you have less frequent claims. Why? Because if your electrical panel doesn't have enough capacity, you're at a higher risk for a fire. We can offer Jill a lower price. Jack happens to have an old water heater, and it's in a pretty risky place, the attic. There are actually water heaters in attics. You're probably thinking, "Where's my water heater right now?" When this happens, the claims are more severe. So when there is stress on that house and that water heater breaks, there's greater damage. So we would charge Jack a surcharge. Over time, we will get more Jills into our portfolio. And if we have Jacks in our portfolio, they'll be priced appropriately.

The last thing I want to mention about our strategy is just to reiterate something we've been talking about pretty much on every earnings call, which is we are focused on profitability. So we've taken a lot of actions over the last several years to drive profitability. We've made updates to how the things we cover in our product. We've taken advantage of our data to bring the right pricing into our products. We've been really diligent about where do we keep risk, which risk do we want to bring into the portfolio. And then we've been very aggressive in taking premium rate increases whenever and wherever we can actually justify them. And the results have had an impact. And you can see this in HOA's gross combined ratio improvements. And so you can see the improvement from 97- 83 over the last two years.

Keep in mind, in the last two years, we've seen significant inflation and increasing home value and a lot of weather events that have impacted us. We've still been able to show that level of improvement because of all of those actions. Some of that is what I just mentioned at a high level, but specifically, if you look at the yellow line, that's our attritional loss ratio. Those are sort of day-to-day events when you take out large weather cat events. It's things like a fire, as I mentioned earlier, a roof leaking, a pipe breaking. That's actually where our data is particularly valuable. We're seeing it show up on our scoreboard, and that's helped to drive this improvement. For all of these reasons that I've just covered, we are ready to grow.

And so I want to take you through a little bit about how we're thinking about growing our insurance business. Kind of to give you guys a little bit of background or a little bit overview of the next few years, our 2025 target is $500 million. We expect to pick up growth a little bit faster in 2026 and get to $600 million. And then we think we can sustain 20%+ CAGR ongoing, and we would reach $3 billion within 10 years from today and perhaps even a bit sooner. We'll talk about some of the upside opportunities we have to go faster. To give you guys a little bit of context, we will be focused on growing through agency distribution. And I want to tell you a little bit about why we think that makes sense for us.

Over the last 10 years, Porch has built a lot of capabilities to go to market through companies. We call this B2B2C, or that's how we refer to it internally, where we can provide value adds to companies to help them to differentiate with their consumers and to grow, and then in exchange, we get introduced to their consumers. We primarily do this through embedding our consumer experiences somewhere in their user experience, and we do this now across many industries, many thousands of partners. We have good muscles doing this, and there's no reason, at least from our view, why we can't bring those muscles to bear for an agent, help the agent to differentiate and grow their business, and they will introduce us to their customers.

So in a minute, I'll tell you about the value prop we think we can offer to agents because of some of these capabilities. Meanwhile, HOA has been very successful growing through agencies. They became a top 10 insurance carrier in Texas through agencies. And they have a lot of long-standing agency relationships, including with homebuilders, which we like because new construction is a very attractive segment within the home buyer segment. So we think that's a winning combination. Let me tell you a little bit more about the differentiated proposition we can provide to agents. The first, we will provide the best products for home buyers and low-risk homes. For home buyers, we'll be able to do things like discounts, free 90-day home warranty, a moving concierge. For low-risk homes, we can offer fair and more accurate pricing.

It is our expectation that we will be the first choice in the minds of our agents when it comes to home buyers and low-risk homes. In addition to being the best for home buyers, because of the strategic consumer access that we've built up, we can offer agents access to home buyers. When we divested from our in-house agency, EIG, a couple of years ago, it was because we saw a bigger and more profitable opportunity to serve our customers through a network of third-party agencies versus trying to do it in-house. But we also saw an opportunity to differentiate our value prop to those agents because of the access we had to home buyers. We could not only help them serve their customers, but we could help them to grow by reaching our home buyers.

And so we will be providing unique marketing opportunities and preferential access to our home buyers to our best and fastest-growing agencies. We do pay competitive commissions, but we see an opportunity to give agents upside through profit sharing. And so if agents are able to bring us valuable customers, then we'll make it a win-win for them, and that'll help us to stand out in their minds. I now want to talk you through why we think just the agency channel can give us a path to $3 billion, gives us a path to $3 billion in premium. To help you guys understand why we think that's achievable, I want to share what HOA was doing in 2022. So if you followed our story, we started constraining growth towards the end of 2022 as we focused on profitability.

This is what was HOA doing before that constraint started to happen. That's about 650 active agents. Those active agents were writing 125,000 new policies per year. If you use 2024 premium per policy, that's $275 million in premium per year using the agency engine they had built in 2022. We would only need to get a portion of this going to hit the 2025 target of $500 million, the 2026 target of $600 million. But we're focused on turning back on the growth engine. We're opening up geographies as the reciprocal. As of November, we've started to open up geographies. We're reinvesting in our growth team. We're appointing now. There was a time we weren't appointing new agencies. We're now appointing new agencies. And we can grow that to over 1,500 agents.

To put 1,500 agents in context, the largest carriers who use agency distribution have more than 2,000 agents just in Texas, and we're going to be expanding not only in Texas, but all over the country, so 1,500 is achievable for us. When we think about how that would scale, that would be about 250,000 new policies, and using today's premium per policy, that'd be over $550 million in premium per year with that set of agents, which puts us on pace to get to $3 billion within 10 years. That's achievable, and I want to take you through it from a different lens, which is through market share and give you a little bit of insight into how we're thinking about geographic concentration risk, so what would $3 billion mean for market share? Today, we're 2%. We're just 2% in Texas.

That's even after not growing much in the last two years. We see Texas as a growth opportunity, and we will continue to grow in Texas. This gets us from 2%-5% in Texas. From a geographic concentration risk, I just want to share a little bit how we think about Texas. It is our largest state, but it is a big state. West Texas is very different from Houston, is very different from Dallas. We actually put Texas over the Northeast map in the map of the United States. It covers all of the northeastern states, and you can put in New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia and still have room left over. You really need to think about when we say Texas is our largest state, geographically, it's depending on which states you pick, five, 10, even 15 states within Texas.

But we want to grow outside of Texas. And so to get to $3 billion, we get to 2% in our other existing states. And at that point, Texas would be less than half of our total portfolio. You assume market CAGR grows at 6%, and that market share would get us to $3 billion in premium. But as I mentioned earlier, we have upside opportunities. We have ways to grow faster. For one, we can and we will expand beyond our current 22 states. Now, we're excited in the nearest term to go into Ohio and Pennsylvania as an example. We can and will look at bundling auto, which is a way to drive retention and increase share of wallet. And there's a number of ways we can bring an auto offer to market.

We may look at excess and surplus, which is a way to get more pricing flexibility in how we sell our products in market. We may experience faster premium per policy growth than 6%. We certainly experienced significantly more than 6% over the last couple of years. And as Matt mentioned, M&A can be an opportunity for us to expand into new areas or new lines. With that, I'd like to hand it to Manisha. She'll talk about the reciprocal and then the Insurance Services segment.

Manisha Patel
SVP of Finance, Porch Group Inc

Good morning, everybody. I'm excited to be here today. So Matthew just went over the insurance strategy and the opportunity to grow. And I'm excited to talk about from the finance angle how the reciprocal is expected to be healthy and scalable. So there are two key takeaways from this section. First, that the reciprocal is an attractive model that will generate surplus organically.

And second, that the reciprocal has a scalable model. So with that, let's dive in. First and foremost, as we launch the reciprocal, the insurance carrier, HOA, is in a financially healthy position. And so what I mean by that is taking a step back, financially being financially healthy for an insurance company, the key word there to understand is surplus. So in simple terms, what surplus is, is shareholders' equity. And for surplus to improve, surplus can improve by profit generation, by capital contribution, or a third-party surplus note. So with that background, HOA surplus at the end of 2024 is expected to be about $100 million. And that's record for HOA and double from last year. And frankly, we expect the end of the year surplus to be north of $100 million, dependent on where our stock price lands at 12/31.

So overall, the reciprocal is set up well for 2025 and beyond. So as I said, growing the surplus organically is a key to the health of the reciprocal. And this is a very important slide to really understand the economics of the reciprocal. So I'll take you through this step by step. So a couple of things to just remember. As Matthew pointed out, this is the entity where 100% of the premiums reside, where the variable costs reside, and where the weather volatility also resides. This is also the entity where all the assets on January 1st will transfer over, including the cash and investments of this entity. Also, as Matthew mentioned, when we launch the reciprocal, we'll have two insurance products. First, the HOA product, and second, the Porch Insurance product. So with both products, we'll have comparable price.

In this example, the price is about $3,000 of premium. As I mentioned, the reciprocal keeps 100% of that premium. Second, let's assume that 30% of the policyholders select Porch Insurance. One unique thing about selecting Porch Insurance, and it's typical for reciprocal exchanges, is that those policyholders will provide 10% of surplus contributions on top of their premium. So on those 30% that are shifting over, we'll get 10% of contributions, and that equates to 3% of premium. Third is the interest income. As I mentioned, all the assets transfer over on January 1st, as well as the cash and the investments. So the interest income generated from that is 2%. Then, Porch Group earns 20% of the economics as the operator of the reciprocal.

One thing to note here is that they will earn, Porch Group will earn the 20%, all the premiums across both products. Then we have the largest bucket of costs, our variable costs, which are 80% of the premiums. There are three main buckets in that variable cost: the claims costs, which is the largest of the bucket. Just to note that in that claims cost, we have modeled a major hurricane that will be in the coverage of the reciprocal and will surpass the retention limit. Second, the second largest cost is the reinsurance cost. That's where we pay reinsurers for the coverage for weather-related events. I will go in a couple of slides deep into our reinsurance strategy. The third bucket of costs is our distribution channel costs, which are agent commissions.

With that, if you add that across, we end up with 5% of surplus generation. As Matthew mentioned, our goal for next year is to hit about $500 million of gross written premium with a 5% surplus generation. 500 million times 5% is $25 million of incremental surplus that the reciprocal will generate organically. Let's talk about if more policyholders select the Porch Insurance product. That creates more surplus. And with that, and with more surplus, Porch Group can take higher take rate . Let's see how that flows out here in the unit economics that I just laid out. With the contributions increment from 3%-8%, that means that at the end, the total now surplus generation is 10%.

Then we have the ability to increase the overall rate for the Porch Group from 20%-25%, still leaving us with a positive surplus of 5%, which is the initial economics that I laid out on the first slide. So as you can see, the advantages of this model is that it's dynamic, and so it allows us to have levers to really bolster our surplus and provide value to Porch Group. We covered this in our Q2 earnings, but another way to support and bolster the surplus is through the Porch stock flywheel. In Q2, Porch stock was contributed to HOA, and as the Porch Group stock increases, that creates long-term opportunity and a flywheel. So as the Porch stock price increases, that creates additional surplus in the reciprocal.

And I do want to note, based on insurance-specific calculations, only a portion of that stock appreciation will get counted towards the increase in surplus. And similarly, on the downside, there is a discounted impact. So with the increase in the surplus, that allows the reciprocal to grow faster, to be able to support more premiums. With more premiums, more fee-based income to Porch Group, which in turn should increase the valuation of Porch Group and the stock price, and then start the flywheel over again. We do have a great deal of belief in where our stock price will go, and we do want the reciprocal to be able to participate in that. So we will ensure that we manage our targets to ensure that we account for the stock volatility.

So with that, this engine, along with the unit economics that I walked through, are two mechanisms that will create the surplus that we really need to scale this business and which we're really excited about. As I mentioned in the unit economics, the reinsurance strategy is one of the key components to understanding the health of the reciprocal. So despite the fact that we already have a healthy surplus and the Porch Group will be separating from the weather risk, reinsurance is one way that we can protect the reciprocal from the variability. And what I mean by that is the reciprocal will pay money to third-party reinsurers for the weather protection. So when there is an event, we do have coverage. So overall, there are two types of reinsurance coverages. First, the third-party reinsurance that mitigates weather risk, and then second, our Porch Captive.

Looking at the third-party reinsurance coverage and the first component, that is excess of loss. Simply put, the excess of loss covers large but non-frequent catastrophic weather events. Starting April 1st, which is when the new reinsurance period starts, our expectation is that the reciprocal is to have a maximum of about $20 million of loss exposure per one in 130-year events occurrence. In that scenario, anything above the $20 million, the third party covers. As a reminder, the one in 130-year events basically means that events cover 99.5% of all expected incidences. Also, as a reminder, the reciprocal in Q1, which is right before the treaty period is over, the maximum loss exposure is $7.5 million. The next component in the third-party reinsurance is the quota share. The quota share absorbs losses across the portfolio.

Historically, HOA has been utilizing the quota share program, but frankly, that reinsurance program we've seen the price is quite high. And so our expectation is to decrease the quota share coverage come April 1st, but that will be dependent on the price and the terms in the market. And then, as I mentioned, the Porch Captive. As a reminder, Porch Captive is a wholly owned entity by Porch Group. This is the entity that rolls up into Porch Insurance Services segment. The basic strategy here for Porch Captive, as Matthew mentioned, is having coverage for the non-cat weather and to be able to utilize the Captive for its capital efficiency. So the next couple of slides here, I'll be talking, going deeper into the Captive and what that means for us. So first, the Captive. Why? Why are we using the Captive? Well, the Captive is capital efficient.

It's a common vehicle in the insurance industry to use the Captive, and our Captive already has capital in it, so it makes sense for us to be able to use that and to be able to support the premiums and the growth in the business. Second, how are we to use the Captive? As I mentioned, the basic strategy there is to have non-cat weather coverage. This will allow us to have predictable and consistent financial results as well. Third, because we are utilizing the non-cat weather exposure, that is mitigating the weather exposure to Porch Group. However, as a reminder, and ahead of the 4/1 renewals, the Captive will have in Q1 the cat exposure as the legacy contract runs out. However, we have forecasted expected losses at a high confidence level. And finally, what does that mean in terms of numbers?

That means predictable and consistent results, revenue of 20% of gross written premium, as Matthew mentioned, with healthy market margins and attractive to Porch Group. So as I said, the biggest thing with the Captive is the utilization of the Captive for its capital efficiency. So here on the next slide, we'll go deeper into what does it mean to be capital efficient and let's look at some of the numbers. So first, the baseline rate at the reciprocal is 3- 1. And what that is, is a gross written premium to surplus. So in simple terms, that is, for every $1 of surplus, the reciprocal can support $3 of gross written premium. So in this example, with the $500 million of gross written premium that we plan to do next year, the reciprocal will need $167 million of surplus. With the Captive, as I said, it's capital efficiently.

It's a common vehicle used in the insurance industry. That rate is 7-1, so if we take the blended effective rate with the utilization of the Captive and the reciprocal together, the blended rate is 5-1, so in this example, with the $500 million of gross written premium at 5-1 rate, the surplus needed is $100 million, and as I mentioned in the first slide of this section, we will be ending the year just north of $100 million, so what that means is that we have the surplus already to be able to support the growth in the $500 million plan for next year, and taking a step further and looking into 2026, as Matthew mentioned, the $600 million gross written premium plan, and that's $100 million increase from the 500 to the 600 million.

And so with the $100 million increase at the blended 5- 1 rate, the additional capital needed is $20 million. So that's the way to think about the capital need. And as I mentioned in the unit economics, we are going to be generating an incremental $25 million in surplus. So overall, the key message here is that with the utilization of our Captive and in looking at our economics and being able to generate surplus organically, we are able to support the growth that we've laid out in the future. So as I wrap up this section, I hope I've demonstrated two key takeaways here. First, that the reciprocal has an attractive model that generates surplus. And second, with the examples I've laid out, that the reciprocal has a scalable model.

Now that we have a better understanding of the reciprocal and the health of the reciprocal now and in the future, this will create sustainable and profitable growth for Porch Group as the operator of the reciprocal. The key to this section is to really understand the Porch Group Insurance Services segment. There's two components in this segment. As a reminder, it's the operator of the reciprocal and the Porch Captive. The main metric for those that are doing the modeling, the main metric here for this segment is gross written premium. The gross written premium, as Matthew mentioned, for 2024, it's $440 million, and we'll be going to about $600 million in gross written premium in the 2026 year.

Under the reciprocal structure, as I mentioned, the revenue for this segment will decline from 2024- 2025 as the premiums will reside in the reciprocal entity, but that is a one-year blip. So as you can see, in 2026, you'll see our revenue grow 20% +. So overall, as a note, as you're thinking about modeling, the key there is that overall gross written premium to revenue conversion is about 40%. Looking at gross profit, gross profit from 2024- 2025 is actually doubling with the expected 80% gross margin. It's also key to understand here is that we'll no longer have that variable, the weather variability that we've seen in the past, and that leaves us with EBITDA, strong EBITDA margin of 33%, delivering $80 million of EBITDA in the 2026 year.

So overall, our journey to be a new kind of insurance company will result in higher profitability, higher margins, as you can see here. To wrap up the Porch Insurance Services segment, there are four key components to really understand for this segment. Those are the four components on the top, starting with gross written premium of $600 million that we plan to hit in 2026, the 2%, the take rate of 20%, the quota share rate of 20%, and then the surplus note interest. As a note, the surplus note interest economics and the take rate economics are interchangeable. We could take a lower interest, but a higher take rate, and those are similar economics to Porch Group. We are indifferent. All the while, the reciprocal still remains healthy.

The other thing to note here is that the 20% take rate applies to across all the premiums, all states, and across both insurance products, as I mentioned, the HOA product and the Porch Insurance product. So with that, let's take a look at the output with revenue for 2026 at $245 million, with predictable and recurring revenue, gross profit at $195 million at 80% margin, and then EBITDA at $80 million, 33% margin. It's important to note that the take rate revenue has a strong operating margin with incremental margins of 80%. So with this opportunity and the other opportunities that Matthew laid out, we do see ourselves to be able to hit 40% + in long-term margins. So overall, the key takeaway here is a Porch Insurance Services segment is well positioned to generate high value, predictable, and a scalable business.

As Matt mentioned, we'll show the buildup of our $100 million throughout this presentation today. We just now covered the largest portion of that $100 million, with $80 million coming from the Insurance Services segment, and with that, next, Nicole and Matthew will cover our next segment, which is Software and Data.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Thank you, Manisha. All right, I'm going to go through software and Nicole will go through data just to make sure we're orienting with our segments. Our current segments, our Vertical Software includes our software, data, and our services, Consumer Services businesses. We're separating those out. So what I'm going to cover here is just the Vertical Software and Data. Coming back to our strategy slide, our Software and D ata businesses contribute unique data and distribution to support our insurance business.

I'll talk through it in a minute, but it gives us insights into homes and home buyers and people who are moving. What I also want to share today is these are financially attractive businesses with high margin recurring revenue, independent of the value they provide to our insurance business. Let's take a quick look at the numbers. We expect $90 million in Software and Data revenue in 2024, and this is essentially all recurring revenue, 78% gross margin, 17% Adjusted EBITDA margin with a contribution of $15 million. This segment, we support 27,000 companies through our different Software and Data products with an average revenue per company of about $3,000. What I'll share in a moment is these businesses have fared pretty well over the last couple of years given the headwinds within the housing market.

Some of you may know these businesses, but I do want to refresh you on what they do, how they fit within the market, and how they performed over the last couple of years, and then Nicole will go much deeper into the data platform we're building and how it provides value to consumers, to our insurance business, and also to brands who want to target movers, home buyers, and properties. Matt mentioned this, but over the last really 10 years, we have been strategically assembling a set of assets to build a data platform and to give us differentiators in insurance, and I want to walk you through how that fits into the journey of the home.

So the first thing you would do if you were buying a home is you'd actually apply for a mortgage to get pre-approved for a credit limit so you knew how much you could buy. Floify handles that loan origination and application process. Once you narrow in on a house, you will most likely get an inspection. Almost everybody does because you want to know what you're actually buying. We have a suite of software products that really power the entire inspection experience and give us insight into those homes and early access to people who are about to move. Around the time you'll get the inspection, there's actually a title file that gets opened. And that'll lead up to that special moment. How many anybody bought a home? Yes, most of you, some of you.

You get that moment where you show up and you get to sign all of those papers at the closing. I was telling the team, my wife and I actually got a picture of us signing like we were future D1 athletes. Rynoh makes sure that all of that happens without any hitches. And I'll talk more about what Rynoh does. What some of you might forget, but you certainly felt it when you're going through it, moving is incredibly stressful. You're not only dealing with all of the clothes, you're probably getting your kids set up in new schools, figuring out new providers, moving all of your belongings. And we know that moving is so stressful, which is why we built capabilities in our Porch App and through a moving concierge to help those consumers in that very important and very stressful moment.

A lot of what we do with software companies is we can provide that concierge as a value add for them to offer to their consumers, which gets us introduced to consumers early in the home buying process. What do we do with that app and that moving concierge? We help consumers to purchase home insurance. We help them to book movers. We help them to get a warranty set up, get all their utilities, TV, internet, and security set up. Ongoing, there are ways Porch helps with home projects, and we have a software tool called iRoofing, which powers the point of sale experience for roofing contractors. The reason we are interested in that is a significant amount of insurance claims result from roof failure, something happening with a roof failure.

iRoofing tells us who's in the process, who needs to get their roof replaced, and who recently got their roof replaced. But all of this just leads back to our core strategy of building a long-term relationship with consumers through Porch Insurance. Let's look at Rynoh. So Rynoh is the leader in reconciliation software in the title industry, supporting 40% of transactions. Let me walk you guys through what's the problem Rynoh is solving. So if you're a title agent, your job is to close and transfer title. When that happens, you need to do a three-way reconciliation between your agent software, which is tracking the close, what actually gets to the banks of the people who are involved in it, and then what is on the settlement summary.

And if you've gone through a home buying experience and you look at your settlement summary, there's dozens of crisscrossing transactions that all have to be netted out and get to different parties. Okay? You have to do that to be compliant. You also have to do it to make sure the funds don't go to the wrong person or don't clear. And sometimes it can take weeks for a payment to clear before you can close out the transaction. Now imagine you have hundreds, and in some cases, thousands of closings every month. If you were trying to do that manually, it would be an absolute nightmare. And so that's what Rynoh does. It automates that three-way reconciliation. It will proactively identify issues so you can address them to reduce your close time. And then there's a bunch of stuff on the compliance side that it streamlines.

It's an absolute workhorse. Since 2007, it has protected and facilitated 25 million transactions. What that means is $8 trillion of funds got where they needed to go and to the right person with limited effort and issues for the title companies. Over the last few years, we have built Rynoh from a tool, a reconciliation tool to a platform that powers and automates more of a title company's workflow. I've mentioned RynohLive. That's the three-way reconciliation tool. We also launched RynohEscheat. Where is our general counsel? If you'll indulge me, I have a little bet with our general counsel. How many of you know what escheat means? Anybody? Okay, I win the bet. Escheat is, let's say at the end of that title transfer process, there are unclaimed funds.

The state has all sorts of regulations on how you handle, notify, and dispose of those funds. And a title company is obligated to follow those procedures. We help to automate that. Rynoh Verifi is a tool to make sure that the bank account is a valid and legitimate bank account for the person. And that may not seem like a big deal, but actually in 2022, there's an FBI report over $500 million is lost through fraud in real estate transactions. Rynoh Verifi can prevent that. When we look at the key metrics of Rynoh, over 2,600 title companies use it. We have 99.3 monthly logo retention. And keep in mind, that's when the housing market has had challenges. Tremendous Net Promoter Score, really attractive LTV to CAC, which is why we've been investing in Rynoh and will continue to invest in Rynoh.

Let's refresh you guys on what we do with our inspection software. Inspection is a critical and strategic step of the home purchase. People spend up to and above even $1,000 on an inspection, and the reason is if you're going to spend that much money on a house, you want to know what you're getting into. Are there any issues I should bring to the seller to get a reduction? How much work am I going to have to do when I get there? Are my kids going to be safe if we're living in this house? Super, super important. The reason why it costs that much is because you bring a trained, certified inspector who comes to your house for four hours, goes up on the roof, crawls in the attic, documents everything about the home, following a really detailed standard process that the industry has developed.

And everybody does that. Almost everybody does that. And what that means for Porch is there's a lot of insights around the home that get generated through the inspection process that are one of the sources of our data platform that allow us to do what we do. And we actually support almost the entire part of an inspector's business. ISN, you've probably heard that. That's CRM and workflow. So communication with the consumer, agent, delivering the report, collecting payment, all that happens through ISN. We'll sometimes refer to a report writer. That's what they're carrying around the house that allows them to collect information systematically, and it's what produces the report. We have report writers. ISN integrates with essentially all report writers, and the reports that are generated sit within our software systems.

We also do payment processing, appointment setting, growth tools, a bunch of things just to help be an all-in-one partner for these inspectors. In terms of key metrics, we have over 9,000 inspection companies. I'll emphasize these are companies. The number of inspectors is actually much more because we have lots of companies have multiple inspectors, but we have almost all of the largest inspectors. With that, we cover over 40% of inspections. Historically, that's north of 10 million inspections that have happened on our software. We also have a 99.3% monthly logo retention during a period where there's been significant headwinds and a great NPS score. Let's look at our two other software products that we've mentioned. So Floify is a point of sale solution, and if you're a lender or borrower, we streamline the loan origination process.

What makes Floify stand out is it's highly customizable so those loan officers can set up the workflow that works best for them. And a lot of what this does is if you just think about if you've gone through buying a home, you're sending and passing back many pieces of information in order to be able to close on the loan and get approved for a loan. So Floify handles all of that collection and organization, notifications, communication with the different parties and the consumer. And over 7,500 loan officers use it. It is a leading product for mid-market and SMB. And we see some opportunity for Floify in the future there. And this gives us insight into people who are starting their journey. I've mentioned iRoofing. iRoofing is a mobile software so that the roofing contractors don't have to be at their desk.

It helps them to close more business faster. One of the key features, and you can see it on this image here, it allows remote measurement of roofs. They can do it from anywhere. Then with that remote measurement, they can rapidly create an estimate and a visual pitch book to send to the consumer. Over 1,700 roofing companies use that. We are interested in that, as I mentioned, because the roof is a key failure point when a house is under stress, which drives a significant portion of claim costs. We want to know who's getting a new roof. I want to talk about the last couple of years because these businesses have had to deal with just tremendous headwinds. I'm quite proud of some of the stuff that they did despite those headwinds. Housing industry has been tough.

You guys ask us every earnings, what do we think the housing market's going to do? Well, this is what it did. It dropped 30% from 2021- 2024. But what you should also know is refinancing dropped even more. Refinancing dropped really pretty much to the bottom, 80%. The reason that's important is if you're a mortgage company or a title company, all of that's a big part of your business. And so the mortgage industry and the title industry have dropped a lot of transactions. Most of our software revenue is driven by transactions. Some of it is per seat, but most of it is by revenue. And so this impacted their revenue over the last couple of years. But what do we do?

We innovated, and we set a strategy of doing a major product release every year and then making sure our pricing was updated to match the value. In Rynoh, I mentioned how we went from a tool to a platform, launching escheat, Verifi, inspection. We did a bunch of stuff. I highlight a couple here. There's a new innovative payment option to consumers. We built an integrated native report writer within ISN. Floify did a bunch of stuff, including recently automating the step in the process where they have to verify that you actually have a job and you actually make the money you say you make. And this had a big impact on these businesses during a very challenging market time because it allowed us to drive up our revenue per transaction.

And so if you look at the top, our revenue per transaction across all of our software businesses grew by 50%. And then Rynoh, it more than doubled. That allowed these businesses to roughly keep their revenue the same despite that steep drop-off in transactions. And we were also able to do it with limited attrition and at a time when these businesses were hyper-focused on cutting costs. What's exciting about this progress is transactions will come back. Housing transactions will come back. Refinancing transactions will come back. These businesses will not need significant investment. They can support much higher volume, which means as those transactions come back, we'll see it drop to the bottom line. With that, Nicole will take us through our data platform, and then we'll do a five-minute break after this.

Nicole Pelley
Data Platform Lead, Porch Group Inc

Awesome. I was right.

Thanks, Matthew. Looking forward to talking to you all about our data platform. The bulk of my presentation today is going to be about the four main ways that we create value with data. But before we do that, I want to spend a little bit of time talking about the history of our data platform. We've been building it over the last decade, and so there's a lot that's happened to get us where we are today. I also want to talk a little bit about the technology and then the types of data that we have available. Starting back at the beginning, like Matt said, when Porch began, we knew that data was going to be really important, and so from the very beginning, we began ingesting tens of millions of records on homes and projects that had happened on homes.

And we also began investing in machine learning and AI. It started very early for the company, and it's something we've continued to invest in today. From there, we acquired software platforms that had unique data assets. And so Matthew just walked through some of those, but that allowed us to bring in some unique data into the system. And then we had a really pivotal acquisition with V12. And V12, to me, was a major accelerant to our data strategy, both in being able to bring in the capabilities that they had around the many different sources and unique data that they had, just a tremendous amount of data that we were able to bring into the platform, a really amazing team of people that know data inside and out, and then the go-to-market capabilities around bringing data and marketing services.

With that, we started combining the Porch data sets and the V12 data sets, and the first thing we did is really establish early insights into nearly 90% of all movers. That's hugely valuable because movers are an incredibly valuable segment of consumers. They spend a lot of money during that move period and have a lot of key needs. Next, we started integrating HOA data, so we brought in about 15 years of data from HOA, which allowed us to understand what had happened across all the properties we insured over that time period. That also included all of the claims data to understand all of the properties that had issues, and from there, we were able to start correlating, taking all of that property data that we had in our data platform, correlating it with all of the HOA data.

And not surprisingly, the more data you have, the better you can understand risk. So we'll spend some time talking through that here shortly. Given how valuable we saw in that HOA result set, we started creating early insights into nearly every property in the United States. So today, we know nearly 90% of properties. We have insights into nearly 90% of properties in the US to understand property attributes and conditions of homes. And with that, we brought to market our Home Factors product that we'll talk about today. And we've begun monetizing that in the market, but we're really just getting started. There's a couple of things that I think are really important as we think about our data platform. The first is it takes just a tremendous amount of data to be able to do what we are trying to do and unique data at that.

And then the second thing is it takes a key investment in technology, and in particular, machine learning and AI technologies, both of which we've invested in and I believe provide us a competitive advantage. So let's spend a minute talking about our technology platform. Our technology platform is something I'm particularly proud of. It's an incredibly robust platform, but it's nimble. It lets us scale, yet it can still process a tremendous amount, billions of data points coming into it at a time. It's been built with machine learning and AI from the very beginning, and that is core to everything that we do with data. It's super critical to allow us to build really highly predictable models to allow us to have insights into the volume of data that we have volume of insight into.

The process that we take with our technology is that we first source the data, so we bring in data from many, many, many different data sources, and what we have to do is we have to be able to bring that data in. We have to be able to master it, deduplicate it, store it, and in some cases, we have to extract data, so there are many types of data sets that are just not easy to simply ingest. Property data is one of those where we have to build unique models to be able to understand property attributes, and then we make that data actionable, so we build additional models on top of that, which allows us to establish insights into nearly 90% of properties and 90% of consumers across the United States.

The type of data that we have in the platform, so we have billions of data points, so I want you guys to have a sense for how big this is. Billions of data points in our data platform, and we primarily focus on two key things, so one is property information, in particular, insights on the interior of the home, so this is going to be things like pipe, roof material. It could be foundation condition, and then the second area is household information, so who are the people in the homes? What are the demographics of those people? Intent signals, so are they shopping? Are they searching for roofers? Things along those lines, and what's really fun for me is that I get to bring together all of this unique data that we have, the really great technology platform that we've built, and build really cool data products.

And so we'll talk about some of those right now. So our data creates value in a few different ways, and we'll spend time on each of these. The first is it creates improved pricing and risk understanding for HOA and Porch Insurance. Second, it can create improved pricing and risk calculations for other carriers. We can help businesses target the right consumer at the right time. And then we add value into our own consumer experiences. So let's start with creating value for Porch Insurance and for HOA. There's really three types of data that are used to understand risk in the insurance space or the home insurance space. The first is person, so the type of information about you as people. So what is your insurance score? What's your age? What's your education level?

This is generally going to be pretty commoditized data, but it's going to be really important into your insurance pricing and risk calculations. The second is the geography of your home. So where is your home located? What are the weather patterns? What are the catastrophe risks? And then the third is the home itself. And this, to me, is really where our unique data adds a huge amount of value. So today, insurance companies have some information here. They certainly are going to know things like the square footage of the home, the number of bedrooms, the number of bathrooms. And they might even spend money to have an inspector go out on site and walk around the exterior of the home.

But what we know is that gives you just a tiny bit of information, and you're really missing a huge amount of info on the true condition and property characteristics of the home. And this is where I really believe that our unique data provides a huge competitive advantage for us. So if you think about it, our competitors today, they know the people and the geographies and a little bit about the home and their pricing based on those things. But we understand the people are unique, the geo is unique, and the home is unique. We can look at all of those characteristics to better segment our risk, price, and understand that as we move forward. Today, we are producing about 50, a little over 50 Home Factors, which are the unique property characteristics of a home. And so that's going to be things like foundation condition.

Is there a crack in the foundation? Electrical panel condition. Are there any issues with the wiring there? Windows condition. Do the windows need to be replaced on the home? It's things like, what is the foundation type? Is it a slab? Is there a basement? Is there an electrical subpanel that you should be aware of? Or is there a sump pump on the property? It can be the type of pipe in the home, the water heater capacity, or the electrical panel capacity. And this is just the start. We're adding more HomeF actors on a continual basis. So let's talk about the results that we're seeing. So first, I want to talk to you through the process that we use to understand how do these HomeF actors add value.

So the process that we take is we build this model, this home factor model, which gives us insights into nearly 90% of properties in the U.S. We then combine it with our HOA data. So we combine it with all the historical HOA data that we have to understand 15 years of data, what properties had claims, what properties didn't have claims. We take our production pricing today, and we run a univariate analysis. So we say if we just simply added this variable into our calculations, how would it have changed our results? What would we have done differently? So as I walk through the results here, these are going to be results that we see within our HOA data set. I would also say they are univariate analysis, so you can't sum them. There could be some overlap between results, but it's impressive.

An electrical panel that needs repair could signal that there are some issues with the wiring, and it could signal that there's a higher risk for fire. Not surprisingly, it also, when you run it against the data, it indicates a 41% higher claims frequency. When we run that against our HOA data set, we see that 39% of policyholders, their properties don't indicate that there's an issue with the electrical panel. They should get a discount. 33% of our policyholders indicate that they probably do have an issue with their electrical panel, and therefore they should pay a surcharge. What I love about this is this creates much more fair pricing in the industry. People are paying for the appropriate risk in their property.

Now, you'll notice those don't sum to 100%, and there are always going to be some properties where we're not able to determine, and in that case, we'll keep their pricing consistent. So let's look at a couple of other examples. So electrical panel capacity. So we're going to look at a panel capacity that's less than 100 amps. So this is going to be a small capacity panel. And so this likely indicates an older home potentially and probably a panel that can't keep up with modern electrical needs. And in this case, if a home has a smaller capacity panel, there's a 45% higher claims frequency. Again, people with a big capacity panel should pay less. People with small should pay more. Copper pipes. So copper pipes are interesting because they perform differently depending on the geo, but they tend to have issues when there are freeze events.

And so if we look at our HOA data, homes with copper pipes have a 39% higher claims frequency. Again, if you have copper pipes in our geos, you should probably be paying a surplus. If you don't, you should be getting a discount. And what's fun for me is I could just keep going slide after slide. So here you see roof repair, presence of skylight, foundation type, windows repair. And I could have created dozen more slides for you. So if you've had concerns about the data and if it is valuable in understanding risk in a home, I think you can put those to bed. It is very clear to me that the property data that we have is highly valuable and highly indicative of risk. And our HOA team knows that. So they are using our HomeFactors insights across 18 states.

They've done over 40 filings using our data today. Let's talk about how we can create value for other carriers. Some context points for you guys. HOA has 2% market share in Texas, our largest market. There's just a huge amount of the insurance industry that's out there for us as we think about our data that's non-competitive. Today, there is over $7 billion spent on data and analytics to understand risk. The market is huge here. This is key to insurance companies being able to price accurately. If we do some quick back-of-the-napkin math, if I assume $150 billion of premium is spent on home insurance annually, about 60% of that typically goes to claims. A 1% improvement is $1 billion.

As you guys saw from the results, there's a lot more than 1% out there that I believe can be accomplished or improved through our data. The market here is huge. The data is clearly valuable, and margins are high in this business. The data can add value in a lot of different ways. Certainly in pricing and making sure pricing is accurate. Also in underwriting, both in saving costs. Insurance companies today don't have to spend as much money sending inspectors out to inspect properties if they have the data. They can underwrite more quickly, which means they can get back to consumers faster and write more policies. They can renew more quickly, potentially reduce their reinsurance costs, and certainly market to the right customers, the right target customers for themselves.

So when a carrier works with us, the typical process that they go through is they'll do a proof of concept. And what that means is that we will give them a small portion of our data. Their data science and actuarial teams will typically get involved, and they will run our data against their own data, very similar to what you just saw with HOA. At the end of the day, carriers are seeing results. And you guys can see that here from the quote from Brian, who's the Chief Insurance Officer at Bamboo. And we're just getting started here. There's so much more to come. So what's next? Ramping our sales team. So we expect to reach out to 90% of carriers over the next 18 months. We'll launch more Home Factors. So we're over 50 today. We'll be over 100 by the end of next year.

And what's important for you guys to know is that we price per address, per factor. And so as we add more factors, it's an easy way for us to add revenue per account. And then brand awareness. What's awesome about this product is more carriers use Home Factors, more carriers have to use HomeF actors, right? In order to stay competitive, the market is going to have to start adapting to using more data here. Creating value with brands. So we've talked about the type of data we have here. But if we think about a large windows company, by using our data, they can target the right homes and the right consumers that need to have their windows replaced. Or roofers, being able to target the right homes that require roof repair or replacement. Or a large furniture company, being able to go after movers.

It's a primary time people are purchasing furniture. So just through the use of both property conditions as well as mover signals, we're able to help brands target the right people at the right time. An example of that is this case study with Frontpoint Security. They used our MoverT ech capability where they were able to understand who from their customer base was moving, and they were able to target those consumers, reduce cancellations, improve retention, and overall drive more LTV and revenue. Lastly, let's talk about how we create value for consumers. So what's fun for me is not only are we helping companies, not only are we creating more fair insurance pricing in the market, but we're also able to help consumers better understand risk of their property and take care of it. We can bring in all of their data with minimal effort.

So they have all of their home data in a single place. From there, we can create to-do lists for them to be able to plan the work and the costs for their property. We can monitor their home for recalls and notify them if there's any recalls in their property. And as we move forward, we'll be able to help them understand the risks in their home, know the highest risk items in their home, the actions that they need to take, provide severe weather notifications, and personalized recommendations for their property of the actions that they need to take. And this is a win-win. Consumers are able to reduce the risk in their property. They're able to reduce the risk of having a claim, having the headache of having to deal with a claim. And for carriers, they have lower-risk properties.

So looking forward, we're working on a key milestone to get to $100 million of revenue. I want to talk to you guys about the assumptions that go into getting to that key milestone. And we expect to do that over the near term or the midterm, I should say. It's midterm here. So one, we need to take our existing business, and we expect to need to add 60 carriers into HomeFactors. As we think about carriers, carriers are a wide variety of sizes. So a carrier can be worth small six figures up to multiple millions of dollars, right? Depends on the number of policies that they have. For this milestone, we generally assume small and regional carriers. Next, we've assumed 12 factors per account. Like I said, we price per factor, so it's important to know how many factors we're assuming in our models.

That gets us to $100 million of revenue in the midterm. We're focused on building something much bigger than that, though. $100 million would certainly be a notable accomplishment, but we're focused on something much bigger. And the opportunities that we have in front of us, onboarding more carriers, market's much larger than the 60 that we have in plan. We'll increase the number of factors per account. So we're at over 50 factors available today. We'll be over 100 by the end of next year. And we're already hearing from carriers that they want all the factors. So we believe there's clear upside in the amount of factors that people are taking per account. Increasing the cost per factor.

As we price our factors based on the value that's generated, we expect to be able to increase the cost of many of our factors, which will increase the revenue per account, so to wrap up, the market here is really big. The data is unique and valuable, as you saw from our results with HOA, and we believe this can be a really big business for us over the next five years, and with that, I will hand it back to Matthew to wrap up the segment.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Thank you. All right. We'll give you guys a look at what the segment financials be over the next couple of years, and then we'll take a five-minute break.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Okay. So keep in mind this segment is just our Software and Data businesses. $90 million in 2024, growing to $130 to support our 2026 target. And again, this is effectively all recurring revenue. What we assume here, limited market share growth in our software businesses, but we do continue the process of taking price as we roll out new products. And then mid-single-digit housing market recovery, which is on the lower end of third-party forecasts. And then for Home Factors, very, very little in 2025, and then starting to get some traction in 2026, but not the 100 million. That will build towards that.

Keep in mind that there is a longer sales cycle, and then the revenue gets recognized over the life of the contract. We expect gross profit growing in line with revenue, and then we do expect EBITDA margins to improve, growing from $15 million in 2024 to $40 million in 2026. As I mentioned, we expect to take more price in our software businesses, have some more transactions without material investments, and then on the Home Factors side, it is very high margin, but again, very little in 2025, starting to see some traction in 2026. We'll track you throughout the day to the $100 million target. Software and Data will contribute $40 million in 2026 towards that target.

Lois Perkins
Head of Investor Relations, Porch Group Inc

All right. Thank you. We're all going to take a quick break and be back in five minutes. Thanks.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Okay. I'll take you guys through our third segment, Consumer Services. Consumer Services strategically fits in to help us build a unique value prop to our insurance business and to contribute data around homeowners to the data platform. And these are also, although we don't talk about it as much, these are also interesting businesses where we see some real growth opportunities. When we look at it by the numbers, it's a $70 million business. Most of it's actually recurring between our warranty business and some long-term partnerships we have that drive revenue for us in the moving industry or the moving business. 76% gross margin, 14% Adjusted EBITDA. We monetize over 200,000 services a year, around $350 per service.

I'll take a minute just to talk about the capabilities we've built up to get strategic consumer access, and then I want to go a little deeper into our two largest Consumer Services businesses, warranty and moving. When we think of strategic consumer access, we think about that B2B2C strategy that allows us to get introduced to consumers by partnering with businesses to help them differentiate to their consumers and to grow. We do this in a variety of industries, real estate and inspection. We've talked about, I'll talk about moving where we partner with some of the largest moving brands like PODS and Budget. We do it with utilities. We help when customers are going through a transfer of service. We partner with them to provide our moving concierge. We do it with insurance, with HOA, and we actually have some D2C capabilities targeting movers and home buyers.

Our strategy is in partnering with these companies is to embed our consumer experiences into their consumer experience, which is how we get introduced to consumers through these channels. These are some examples. In the moving space, we partner with really large brands like PODS, PACK-RAT, and Budget to provide moving labor. And so if you're PODS, you're selling to a customer, they have a container, but those customers need help loading it and unloading it. We plug into their consumer experience, and then we get introduced to that mover, many of which are home buyers. Our moving concierge, I mentioned the utilities. Utilities care a lot about customer satisfaction. And so offering a free concierge to help consumers who are transferring service with other services they need is a win for them and introduces consumers to us.

Our Porch App and our digital experiences have helped over 300,000 people, and that's growing every day. Through that, we are able to execute high-value services for consumers. This shows our main services in addition to insurance that we offer to consumers, primarily home buyers. Warranty, moving, TV, and security. This LTV is actually contribution margin LTV. Let's take a look at our warranty business. We actually provide over 200,000 consumers with warranties. That last slide focused on our core product, Whole Home, which drives the economics of our warranty business today. We also offer other warranty products. We offer a 90-day free warranty. That's going to be a key part of the insurance value prop, but it's also something that inspectors can offer as a value add to their consumers.

Micro warranties is a new and growing area for us where we offer part of a warranty. So surge protection, something for just your sewer or your HVAC system. And we're excited about being able to grow that part of our warranty business. When you have this many products and all of those channels, it creates a lot of opportunities for us to grow our warranty business. So through inspection and real estate, we'll distribute a 90-day warranty, which we can then upgrade to a Whole Home warranty. Utilities, when we're helping their customers to transfer, we can talk to them about warranties. And we see potential through the utilities channel to offer our warranty products to all of their consumers. We're developing unique partnerships around our warranties. So we partner with Watsco. Watsco's one of the largest distributors of HVAC.

We've embedded an extended labor warranty into their sales process that's supported by our warranty team. Within insurance, we're offering warranty together with insurance, and we're offering coverages that the know-how of our warranty team allows us to offer as part of the Porch Insurance policy. Then we also have direct-to-consumer capabilities targeting recent home buyers to sell our Whole Home warranties. So all of the products and all of the channels give us a lot of different ways we can grow our warranty business, but it's also strategic to our core strategy around insurance. Third-party consumer research showed over 80% of people who were buying insurance would consider also buying a home warranty if it was together with the insurance policy, and they're willing to pay real dollars for that. Whoops.

And so we have incorporated this into one of our key value props, which is that we protect more, and we include these extra coverages. And the reason we feel comfortable offering those extra coverages and supporting the consumer experience needed around them is because of our warranty business. Let's go into our moving services business. You probably don't know this, but we are the second largest provider of moving labor. So that's if you have a truck or a container and you want help loading and unloading. The largest provider is U-Haul. So after U-Haul, it's actually us. We operate a number of different brands using a marketplace model where we handle the communication. We connect them with the provider. We collect payment, but it's handled by our network of local moving providers.

Because of this capability, we are embedded into the consumer experiences of the largest moving companies that offer trucks and containers, such as, as I mentioned, PODS and Budget, but also Penske and PACK-RAT. We are the main player in that space. We're at pretty decent scale, over 90,000 moves through our marketplace and incredibly high customer satisfaction, which is the reason these top-tier brands rely on us to complement their consumer experience. We are good at labor, but we see a bigger opportunity with our moving services, which is why in 2024, we launched on our marketplace what we call local full service, which is you can book the whole thing through our marketplace. You don't have to get the truck and container separate. You just book through us. A lot of the network we had already built offers local full service.

So we were able to move into this category, which is higher value and also a much more common way to move, which shows up in a larger TAM. And then we're going to keep going. In 2025, we're going to launch ancillaries on our marketplace to improve the consumer experience and to create more of an addressable market. So when I think of ancillaries, think packing. You need permits often to put a container or a truck on a busy street. You may need additional storage while you're facilitating your move. So we'll bundle those services. The bigger opportunity or the thing we're excited about is to take all that, combine with our moving concierge, and bring it together in a one-stop shop for moving services. And this will be under the brand of Moving Place. It'll actually launch in about two weeks.

In about two weeks, we'll have a dedicated one-stop shop for all those moving services I mentioned together with the moving concierge. We think of it as an important need in the industry. Booking all these different services, you really can't do it in any one stop. That team likes to think of themselves as the Expedia of the moving industry. There is a real opportunity for us over time. Moving is also contributing to our core strategy around insurance. We told you how important new home buyers are to our strategy. Every new home buyer needs to move. This is third-party research that shows over 60% of home buyers who are moving would take extra help from a moving concierge to help them work through all the things that they need to get done.

We are building out moving services as part of the value prop specifically to home buyers. So we can offer a discount, a Whole Home warranty, and a moving concierge to every home buyer as a way to stand out to our target customer, which we know a lot about from our other capabilities. I'll take you now through the financial overview of this segment. This is currently a $70 million segment. And as I mentioned earlier, more than half the revenue is recurring revenue from our warranty and long-term demand partners that generate revenue in the moving services business. What this growth assumes, some growth from warranty and some traction as we launch Moving Place and sell more local full service and ancillaries, but it still assumes just mid-digit growth in the housing and moving market, which is on the lower end.

We expect gross profit to increase in line with revenue. We do expect margin to grow, and there's a couple of reasons why. First, Warranty is a recurring business that builds on itself. And so we renew these customers with essentially no CAC. And so as we can grow and improve margins because of that. And then within Moving, we have been shifting towards the higher margin products. Local full service is higher margin. Ancillaries are higher margin. And the network we've built and the infrastructure we've built can handle significantly more demand with very limited investment. And so as we grow the Moving Place brand, as moving transactions increase over the next few years, we'll be able to get operating leverage on that business. Tracking up to the $100 million, Consumer Services in 2026 will contribute $20 million towards that goal.

With that, we'll take you even deeper into the financials with Shawn.

Shawn Tabak
CFO, Porch Group Inc

Thank you, sir. All right. It is great to be here. Thank you all for joining us. I wanted to start out by reiterating something that Matt said, which is we really appreciate you guys spending time with us today. We are quite excited to be able to share the data that we have and the insights into our business as well as the additional disclosure, and we hope you're finding it helpful and useful. There's two key takeaways I wanted to make sure we hit home and we leave this section with. The first is that we are at a clear inflection point. We expect to be Adjusted EBITDA positive every quarter going forward.

The second point is that the reciprocal shift here is a fundamental shift for Porch to allow us to create a predictable high-margin business that generates meaningful cash flow, and we think that's quite valuable. Okay, so let's dig in here. The three sections here I'll cover. First, I'll go through our 2026 targets. I'll cover a couple of housekeeping items I want folks to understand, and then we'll end it with long-term value, so let's go. We'll start by taking a look back here. We went public in 2020 with $72 million of revenue. This year, we guided to $450 million at the midpoint of our 2024 guidance. Revenue less cost of revenue has grown from $55 million in 2020 to $205 million at the midpoint of our 2024 guidance. Point to make here on revenue less cost of revenue.

Historically, we were impacted by claims in our insurance business. As we move forward for the Porch shareholder interest, which I will walk through shortly, those claims are no longer paid by Porch Group in our shareholder cash. Let's take a look forward. First, revenue in 2025, we're expecting $380 million of revenue for the Porch shareholder interest. The reason it's decreasing from 2024 is because we are shifting to that Insurance Services business model, but it's only a one-year decrease. In 2026, we're right back up at $460 million. Going forward after 2026, we continue to expect a growth rate north of 20%, and I'll get into that shortly in a little bit more detail. From a gross profit perspective, we expect $297 million of gross profit in 2025. That is an almost 50% increase in gross profit despite the 15% decrease in revenue.

So I really want to hit home on this point here because I think it highlights the profitability of this new business model for the Porch Group shareholders. It's a key point, I think, for folks to understand. In 2026, we expect gross profit of $365 million. Key point here also, because of this high-margin business model and the incremental margins that we have in those, we expect gross profit to actually grow faster than revenue here. Last point I wanted to make on this slide. From a seasonality perspective, I think Matthew may have touched on this earlier. We expect to be much more even throughout the year, a little bit higher perhaps on revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA in the third quarter because more people are moving. But from a seasonality, it should be much more flat and consistent throughout the course of the year.

I wanted to shift gears a little bit and talk a little bit about our corporate spend. Obviously, we brought it down quite significantly over the last couple of years. You can see here we expect to continue to bring it down further. There's two things I wanted to call out that really have enabled these cost decreases. The first is we've tapped into lower cost locations, so we're much more efficient. The important thing to understand about that is we're able to maintain the pace of speed, the pace, the innovation, and the quality in those international locations, low-cost locations that we've tapped into while still reducing costs. So that's one thing I wanted to call out. The second is we've significantly reduced G&A back office type costs. So things like the audit, we've brought down the fees there.

Internal audit, we have brought that in-house and then have staff in India, for example, performing some of those functions. D&O insurance has come down quite significantly. We've integrated a number of the acquisitions that we've done. So there's just been a lot of cost reduction here and efforts there, and you see it in these forecasts here. Final point here is that a lot of the actions that will drive these cost numbers have already been taken. Let's shift to Adjusted EBITDA. This year, we're nearing breakeven. That's approximately a $45 million improvement year over year. Two things I'll highlight. In Q3, we had Adjusted EBITDA of $17 million. In Q4, we guided at the midpoint to Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million. We're here in December.

I know some of you are probably curious, and so I'll get ahead of the question, and I'll tell you that we are on track with the Adjusted EBITDA guidance that we provided about a month ago. Okay, looking ahead, in 2025, our target is $50 million of Adjusted EBITDA for the Porch Group shareholder interest, and in 2026, $100 million of Adjusted EBITDA for the Porch Group shareholder interest. And as is typical at the beginning of each year, obviously, as we give for 2025 and for 2026, we'll provide guidance as we normally do with ranges around these numbers, but these are our targets that we're sharing today. Okay, so let's dive a little bit deeper into that 2026 target and look at it by segment. The first one I'll start with is the bellwether Insurance Services, $80 million of Adjusted EBITDA here.

Before I get into the Porch Group shareholder interest, there's one point I want to make sure is very clear that folks understand about PIRE, the reciprocal, which is not in these numbers. The reciprocal and PIRE are in a very healthy starting position. We have starting surplus of north of $100 million. As Manisha mentioned, it's impacted by stock price. It's also we expect it to be north of $100 million given the performance that we're seeing in insurance. The second thing I wanted to highlight there is with that strong base, you then think about the unit economics moving forward. How do we expect PIRE to perform? As Manisha said, based on the unit economics that we provided, each policy is actually generating additional surplus.

One important thing in there that I also want to make sure folks understand and picked up on and is super clear is in those variable costs, the claims portion that Manisha talked about, that kind of 80% of premium, we have taken conservative assumptions in that, so we have actually assumed that a hurricane is going to happen and PIRE is going to have to pay for that. Now, we had a hurricane this year. We didn't have one last year. Usually, there's not a hurricane every year. I think it's about once probably much, much less than that, but we wanted to make sure the unit economics were solid and stable, so in our modeling, that's what we've assumed.

The third point I wanted to make on the health of PIRE is that in addition to the beginning strong surplus, in addition to the solid unit economics, we also have our reinsurance strategy, which also protects us from these large weather events. Final thing that helps us, or the fourth thing that helps us there, is that the Porch stock that's held by the HOA entity as an asset on its balance sheet has significant value also to bolster that surplus level. So I think as I sit back and think about it, one of the key things that enables this is that health of PIRE, and we feel really good with where PIRE is or PIRE will be and where HOA is currently from a surplus perspective. Okay, so let's dive in deeper.

Matthew talked about our growth plan here to go from $440 million of gross written premium in 2024 to $600 million in gross premium in 2026. That's the key factor there. From there, we expect a 40% conversion to revenue. About half of that, as you recall, is from the take rate. The other half is from the captive quota share arrangement. There's about an 80% gross profit margin on that, a 33% Adjusted EBITDA margin, and that gets us to $80 million of Adjusted EBITDA. I love this model because it is consistent and sustainable, and it really is driven by that gross written premium number up top. It's quite an exciting time, I think, for the company. Okay, software and data. Let's set the baseline here. Today, the business is $90 million of revenue, about an 80% gross margin on that, and $15 million of Adjusted EBITDA.

In 2026, we expect to grow revenue here to $130 million. Key thing to understand here is we are the leader in these Vertical Software assets. And so, as Matthew mentioned, we do expect annual revenue per account or ARPA to increase quite significantly over the next few years as we continue to take price increases. As we talked about, our strategy is to launch additional functionality for the customer. And as we're doing that, as we're creating value for the customer, we're also able to capture some additional value for ourselves and increase prices while maintaining really high retention of those customers. So that's one factor. The other factor that goes into this is just the number of transactions in the housing market. You saw in Matthew's chart how that's coming down, has come down quite significantly.

I know a lot of third parties have estimated that to be high single digits, perhaps even higher. We've been very modest here and will continue to be modest in this area, and we've assumed mid-single digit housing market recovery over this term. So that would be further upside if those third-party forecasts actually came to fruition. On the data side, we have a tremendously exciting product there. It's differentiated in the market. It's very unique. We have a ton of opportunity there, and we're quite excited about what we can do. For purposes of these targets, we've assumed fairly modest revenue in 2026 from HomeFactors. So that would be further upside if that ramped faster. Okay, very high gross margins, obviously, in our software business, as you'd expect, 80%. And that drops us to $40 million of Adjusted EBITDA with a 31% Adjusted EBITDA margin.

Again, the key point here is that growth is really supported by the ARPA increases, the price increases, and we feel confident and able to do that because of the high customer retention that we had that we talked about, as well as the very high NPS scores that we have in these software assets. The other thing I wanted to mention first on software, and then I'll talk about data, the price increases drop straight to the bottom line. So, unlike the increase in the number of transactions. So that'll hit revenue and gross profit and EBITDA by similar amounts. Home Factors is the other item I wanted to talk about here. That is a tremendous product, as I mentioned. The margins there are extremely high. It's essentially mostly fixed costs there.

And so, as we deliver that revenue, again, a lot of that we've already made the investments in the data assets, in the infrastructure, in the platform that Nicole talked about. And so, as we now start to monetize that, we've already paid most of the fixed costs, and they are primarily fixed. And so, we expect that to be a high margin product. I'm excited about that. Okay, sorry, Consumer Services here. $20 million of Adjusted EBITDA. I'll set the baseline in 2024. We expect to do $70 million of revenue, 76% gross margin, and $10 million of Adjusted EBITDA. Over here, we've expected, as Matthew just talked about, modest growth to $85 million in 2026, still maintain that really high 75% gross margin, and that delivers $20 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2026.

We do have upside here also from the housing market recovery to the extent that it's faster because, especially like our moving business, for example, if there's more home transactions, more people are moving. And so, we would expect to be beneficiaries of that. Again, we've assumed modest mid-single digit growth in the housing market. If it grows faster, that's also upside here as well. Okay, so what I just went through is essentially the base case. I wanted to cover off on additional opportunities and summarize those for folks because we have upside to what I just went through. So I'll go through each of the segments. First, let's start with insurance. A couple of things that could drive upside to the numbers to the 2026 target I just spoke about: faster gross written premium growth.

Also, if we have an ability to increase the take rate from 20% up to 25%. And so, that would create further upside as well. And again, that also would flow through revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA, the same amounts. The second point here, second item here is Software and Data. Again, upside could be from the faster housing market recovery if it's greater than mid-single digits, as well as any faster ramping of Home Factors and any large enterprise agreements there. Consumer Services, again, housing market recovery, as well as the launch of Moving Place. I think it's quite a unique asset to launch in the market. And so, we are excited about the opportunity that we have there, especially as the housing market and the number of moves increases here. And finally, we've assumed, obviously, no M&A in these numbers. So this is all organic.

We've also assumed nothing on international in our base case here. Okay, I'm going to shift gears a little bit. I wanted to talk now about a couple of housekeeping items. I just want to make sure folks understand is clear. The first one I'm going to talk about is actually the accounting and reporting model. So folks can understand how that's going to look, how we're going to provide folks disclosure so they can understand our economics. So to set the tone here, the first thing to know, as we talked about, is PIRE, the reciprocal, is owned by its policyholders. Despite that, Porch, we expect to consolidate PIRE into our financial statements in the near term. The important thing, I think, here is that Porch's cash and PIRE's cash are separate, meaning Porch doesn't have access to PIRE's cash and PIRE doesn't have access to Porch's cash.

With that backdrop, we think that as a management team, shareholder value is driven by our ability to generate cash for Porch shareholders. Adjusted EBITDA is the best proxy for cash flow in the short term as a company. If you put all that together, Adjusted EBITDA going forward will include the businesses that impact cash for the Porch shareholders. Obviously, as I mentioned, that excludes PIRE. Okay, let me show you what it's going to look like here on the next slide. These are the four items we discussed today: Insurance Services, Software and Data, Consumer Services, corporate costs. All of that sums to our Porch Group shareholder interest. The Adjusted EBITDA for the Porch Group shareholder interest will be the Adjusted EBITDA of the company.

That's how we generate cash for the Porch Group shareholders with that number that's highlighted in blue there on the screen. So that's going to be the primary focus of all of our reporting, starting with Q1 of next year once the reciprocal is launched, obviously. We do expect, as I mentioned, in the near term to consolidate PIRE. Obviously, as I mentioned, it won't be included in Adjusted EBITDA because PIRE's cash generation doesn't contribute to the cash of the Porch Group shareholders. So we will include it in GAAP net income, though. And one thing to note here, obviously, we will reconcile it for folks. So you'll be able to understand how the two things differ. Final point here, what could trigger deconsolidation? To the extent that PIRE pays back the Surplus Note to Porch Group, we expect it to be north of approximately $110 million.

That could be a trigger for deconsolidation here. I want to switch gears now and talk about our capital philosophy, so the first thing, we maintain, obviously, a minimum appropriate level of operating cash to run the business, so we feel safe and comfortable there. Going forward, we expect to generate cash for the Porch Group shareholders. From an investment perspective, when we look at investment opportunities, we have an internal hurdle rate, and we compare the risk-adjusted return of that investment opportunity against that internal hurdle rate. That hurdle rate, by the way, is obviously well in excess of our weighted average cost of capital. Fundamentally, that's how we think about it. We are investing significantly, all the things that we talked about today, right?

PIRE, Home Factors, building out the sales organization there, ramping that in the warranty business, product and channel expansion, the Moving Place business we talked about within our software businesses, Rynoh, and our inspection software businesses. We're investing in the product there to deploy additional functionality to the customers there. So we're investing quite significantly. And when we do that, we look at the risk-adjusted returns we expect and allocate capital on that basis. We do have our unsecured, shifting now a little bit towards capital structure. We do have our unsecured convertible notes. Those are due September 2026. The value on that is $174 million par value. As I said before there, I'll kind of reiterate what we said before. Same thing, the coupon is exceptionally low there. It's like 75 basis points. So we expect to be patient.

It is something we talk about with our board, and we have a plan for, but given the low coupon, we'll just continue to be patient on that front, and then let's think a little bit about capital structure going forward, so as I mentioned, we have a plan on the unsecured and addressing those. After that, we're left with our $333 million of secured notes. Those are due in 2028. The rate on that is six and three quarters. So very well-priced paper for the company. Longer term, if you think about our targets and that remaining 300-ish million of secured notes, that would put us at a leverage ratio when we approach that 2028 maturity of between two and three times. We think that would be an appropriate platform for a double B rating.

We like the double-B rating platform because it provides access to capital throughout economic cycles, and so that's how we're thinking about capital structure as we move forward here. Okay, let's shift gears a little bit and talk about value, so before I dive in here, let me just say that as a management team, we believe our job is to create value for shareholders by generating cash, and your job is to evaluate that and determine a value for the company, and I respect that, and that's an important point I want to highlight. What I'll go through here, I'll basically look at valuation here from three different ways. One is a multiples-based approach based on some conversations I've had with our shareholders.

I'll then take you through a long-term model and how we think about 10 years out, what it'll look like, and then the resulting impact of the DCF on that. And then third, from a sum of the parts perspective. The punchline here at the end is, and the takeaway will be that all of those methods get you north of a $15 share price. And so let's take a look and dive in. So the first thing I wanted to mention here, starting with some conversations I've had with shareholders, what folks have told me is they're really thinking about Porch based off our 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and applying a 20-25 times multiple on that number.

And so if you do the math based on our $100 million target, think about the net debt, the number of shares outstanding, that gets you to a mid-teens plus share price. And again, that's based on just conversations I've had with some shareholders. I want to take you now through a more fundamental bottoms-up view. And to do that, let's take a look at our long-term model. So let's start with insurance, which is the bellwether. This is going to comprise, so this long-term model section I'll take you through will get us to, in 10 years from now, $2 billion of revenue and $600 million of Adjusted EBITDA, about a 30% Adjusted EBITDA margin. So the Insurance Services business will represent about two-thirds of that revenue and the majority of the Adjusted EBITDA. So this is obviously an important one to understand.

What I've assumed here is if I take our 2026 targets and apply that 23% growth rate out 10 years, it gets us to $1.3 billion of revenue. Matthew talked about earlier how we will be targeting $3 billion of gross written premium and the multiple ways that we can get there. And so that's what would be required to hit that amount of revenue. Summary, by the way, from Matthew's section for those if you didn't hear it, is we have currently 2% market share in Texas. We think we can bring that to 5% market share. Over the next 10 years, we expect that market to grow 6% or north of that. And then on top of that, we also think about expansion in other states and geographies.

So that's just one way we can get to the $3 billion, but there's others that Matthew shared as well in his presentation. I've kept the margins consistent here with 2026 at 33% from an Adjusted EBITDA margin perspective. So I just simply rolled it across at 33%. I think we have an ability to beat that, and I think we have our ambition is to exceed 40% Adjusted EBITDA margins. And the thing that gives me confidence in that is the take rate revenue in the Insurance Services, it has like an 80% incremental contribution margin. I think we talked about it a couple of times today, but the operating services that we're providing to the reciprocal are fixed. Our costs are largely fixed. It's mostly employee type of expenses and things like that. But to keep it simple, I've just for now kept it at the 33%.

Okay, and then there are potential upside opportunities here from faster gross written premium growth, M&A, and as I just mentioned, the margin accretion. Let's talk about Software and Data. Here, I've assumed revenue growth greater than 20% for three years and then reducing over time. One of the things that supports the revenue growth here, which gets us to $580 million revenue ultimately, is the ARPA growth that we talked about, the high Net Promoter Score in our software businesses, the high customer retention. I've also assumed, I would say, fairly modest assumptions from the Home Factors product as well, which I have tremendous belief in. I'm really excited to see that ramp. Not only is the economic profile of that fantastic, but on top of that, it's a really differentiated product in the market. The other thing it says here, I've assumed 31%.

Again, I just kept it simple, dragged it across for Adjusted EBITDA. I also think we have an ability to beat this Adjusted EBITDA margin. First of all, as we mentioned, a lot of the growth here, some of it will be driven by price increases as well as housing market transaction recovery. Same point there that I made before. It'll also help us here. The other point I wanted to make is if you think about our data business at scale and what that could look like, one competitor in that space is a company called Verisk. Their Adjusted EBITDA margin is north of 50%. And so when we say it's quite a valuable and unique asset, but also how we think the economics there will perform, we're quite excited about that opportunity. I have, just to make it clear, I've not yet assumed that in here.

So we've kept it fairly modest. But I do think there is material upside there as we get that going more. Okay, upside opportunities here are from housing market, Home Factors, and faster margin accretion. Okay, Consumer Services. If I extend out the 2026 revenue, 13% gets us to $230 million in approximately 10 years from now. Same 24% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Upside opportunities here from the housing market, scaling a lot of the investments that we talked about or as they scale, as well as additional M&A opportunities. The thing here also to remember, I think Matthew highlighted it well, was that the warranty business here is essentially a recurring, or it is recurring revenue transaction. The retention there is quite high.

And so not only are the initial unit economics strong, but you get a really high LTV because you retain the customer well over a long period of time. Okay, let's round it out with corporate costs. In 2026, we assumed $40 million of Adjusted EBITDA. I just grew that 5% thereafter. It gets us to $60 million of costs in the longer term. Secured notes is our primary. When you think about converting Adjusted EBITDA to cash, the primary item is just the interest expense that we have on the notes. Today, it's about $22.5 million on the secured notes. So that's when folks are modeling this out, that would be the main thing I would think about there. We don't have really any large CapEx, working capital. They kind of offset each other, actually. And so those are less meaningful in a long-term model like this.

It's really just that interest expense. That's the main bridge. We do expect, as I mentioned, given the future leverage ratio of the company, to be able to, in the future, have a similarly priced notes as we, in 2028, look to obviously, or thereabouts, refinance those secured notes as they come due. Okay, so all of that gets us to $2 billion of revenue, sustainable 20% growth in our base case, conservative assumptions on our margin, 30% Adjusted EBITDA margin. By the way, these numbers are just based off of the summing of the individual components that I just went through. And so I think that's important to understand. This is all fundamental bottoms-up work that we're doing here. Our ambition, and we believe we can exceed that 20% growth rate. And our ambition is for our long-term Adjusted EBITDA margins.

I mentioned a couple of things to exceed 40%, given the business opportunities that we have, HomeFactors, things like that, Insurance Services, take rate revenue of things. The summary of all this, I think, is that we have a compelling opportunity to generate Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow for the Porch Group shareholders. Okay, so I mentioned north of $15 share price here. When I bring that all together, I run a DCF on that, obviously. And obviously, folks will have their assumptions on weighted average cost of capital, terminal growth, things like that. That brings me to north of a mid-teens share price. I ran it a bunch of different ways, different assumptions. I still kind of kept coming back to the same answer. And I want to be explicit. This is not a guarantee, anything like that.

I'm just simply sharing both how I've heard our shareholders talk about it, as well as the math from the model that we just went through. Here's the third way of looking at it. So if you look at it from some of the parts perspective. So in our Insurance Services business, we said $80 million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. A public company reciprocal operator, Erie, is one. They trade north of 40 times cash flow. For us, Adjusted EBITDA, as we mentioned in cash flow, are very similar here. And so I didn't include the 40. I just included a much lower number at 25 here. That gets us to a value for that. Software, I just think a common multiple there for software assets is 20 times. Consumer Services, because of the high recurring nature, pick something like 15.

That gets us to $3 billion of enterprise value. What this tells me, obviously, that's much higher than even the mid-teens. What this tells me is that there is a significant negative valuation currently on the Porch corporate platform and the value that it provides and the value that it can generate in the future. That's going to cover that shortly here in a couple of minutes. So let me close out, and I'm going to hand it over to Matt to cover those. But to summarize here and to bring this section to a close, the two key takeaways are we are at a clear inflection point in our business. We expect to be Adjusted EBITDA profitable each quarter going forward. And the reciprocal is a fundamental shift for Porch.

We have built, essentially, a high-margin predictable business that has the ability to generate meaningful cash flow, and we think that's quite valuable. So thank you. I'm looking forward to the journey ahead, and I'm now handing it over to Matt.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

All right, so if you all are folks that are on virtual, I would be thinking about, okay, but can these people execute? Can they go get it done? I mean, the game is execution. The game is people. Are you making your bets on the right team, the right people? I think it's super clear that the strategy is unique. I think it's super clear. The opportunity is big. I don't think anybody would certainly argue with that. Can we go get it done at the end of the day? And I want to spend just a minute talking about that. We have three core operating philosophies. I fundamentally believe in these things. One, we've designed our organization in a decentralized manner. So I talked about we've got these three segments. We've got these five divisions roll up to it.

We've got lots of business units that roll up to those divisions. We believe in those businesses being autonomous units with a business leader, with the resources to be able to go and execute in the world. We want the decisions made close to the customer. I want aligned incentives around their performance. I want them to be able to move fast. I fundamentally believe that velocity can be a competitive advantage, and I want the organizational design to be one where we will continue to be able to move very fast, even when we're at a much, much, much larger scale. And so the organization has been designed with that in mind. I do, however, believe that most good business leaders don't want to deal with payroll and with getting your accounting closed, tightened up in the G&A.

And so we have centralized, while they have their go-to-market resources and product or engineering, we have centralized G&A in order to create efficiency. And you saw that in what Shawn was talking about. We've been able to get a lot better and save a lot of cost by centralizing G&A over this last two or three years. So for accounting, for finance, for legal, for HR, that is how we will continue to operate here so we can get efficiency as we scale. And then lastly, instead of just leaving these businesses off on their own in a silo and letting them run, we believe in having this Porch platform that helps them win in their respective markets, gives them fundamental advantages, essentially.

We've invested to be able to, in things like the data platform or a shared consumer experience, in certain best practices and other shared capabilities that I'll talk through here now. To Shawn's point, he was saying the Porch platform, probably because it's just not understood, is right now creating a significant amount of negative value in the model. It's just an expense that people don't really know how it adds value and how it's going to help these businesses. I fundamentally believe it's one of the most important assets and capabilities we have. I think it should be very much a positive value because it helps these businesses perform better. What is it? What do we spend money on there?

About half, a little less than half, of that corporate spend is what you would think of as kind of pure, true G&A, the accounting, finance, HR, legal, and then the other half, give or take, is tied to this Porch platform, true investments that we're making, so one, the data platform. I mean, I'm not going to go into that again. Nicole's talked through that certainly plenty. The consumer experience, though, we've talked about a bit, but it is something we've invested in, so there can be a single shared consumer experience that a user can go through when they go through that journey, so we can offer them lots of different services and tie these different business units together for that consumer, so we can cross-sell effectively.

We can be able to take the consumer experience, plug it into our software product so that we can enhance the value proposition for these businesses. This is a consistent consumer experience that any business that's part of Porch can be able to leverage and plug into. Shared services. So this would be things like centrally, we'll help with IT or cybersecurity. We'll help with things like these lower-cost staffing locations that we've been able to build out, a set of locations for ops-type centers, sales support, different locations for engineering or finance-related individuals, software systems, etc. We provide these capabilities. Best practices. So we actually have a playbook, a built-up written playbook that businesses use as they come into Porch.

And so we will tell them a lot of smaller companies don't really have a systematic way to interview people, or they don't have a systematic way to do promotions or to be able to handle performance reviews or to measure LTV to CAC. Everybody does this all differently. Revenue, we use an LTV calculation based on the contribution margin, and we define exactly how that has to work so we can get a consistent view and actually understand the returns that we are going to get. So we create all these standard processes that businesses follow that help them run more effectively. And then we have an operating system. So over years, we've kind of built up a way that we want to operate to make sure we can execute really well, consistently, time and time again. And so what does that look like?

We have a cadence that we run as a business. We've done this for many years now. Obviously, the weekly check-ins, monthly reviews, normal stuff. Quarterly deep dives gets a little more unique as does our annual planning. Monthly reviews is what you'd expect. Every single business has both their short-term and their long-term OKRs and KPIs. And so we're looking at that on a monthly basis with those teams, just making sure that we're executing really well. On a quarterly basis, though, we have this deep dive rhythm that we have. So one quarter, the start of the year, we do a long-term review, multi-year review, looking at competitive positioning. What's the entrance in your market? How are you going to be approaching your objective here over a longer-term period of time? And then we break that down the next quarter into a deep dive one year.

So, okay, let's get really into the details on what we are going to do over this next 12 months to make sure that we're executing toward that plan. The following quarter, we go very deep into the product strategy. So we're going to get into the details of your roadmap, exactly what we are going to be building. We look out over a period of time. And then we go into the go-to-market the following quarter. So we're going to look at, okay, here's your channels. What's the current IRRs that we're getting? What's the LTV to CAC? What's our new channels we can bring out? Where are we going to scale our investments? And then Porch is able to bring that back. We're able to bring that back and say, okay, across all of our investment opportunities, what are our most attractive places?

Where are we going to deploy our capital? Where are we going to get the best returns? And that comes into our annual planning. So then we get together with all that information, and we're able to say, okay, as we look forward, what are the places, whether it's product, whether it's go-to-market, where are we going to go deploy capital? That, at the end of the day, is our primary thing we could do, is to make sure we have the right people, the aligned incentives, and then we deploy capital correctly. And so we have a process to be able to go through that, as well as make sure we're evaluating all expenses across the business. So many times, expenses are just fixed and just kind of accrue. We want to evaluate expenses and where can we pull back expenses every year and become more efficient.

And so the punchline here is that it works. And so I'll just give a few examples, but I'll give first the largest acquisition that we've done, Homeowners of America. Just after we went public in 2021, that acquisition was $84 million in cash, 1.4 million shares. HOA was a $10 million EBITDA business. It was basically flat, wasn't really growing, was in a few states as of that point in time. 2024, this is as of our last guidance we provided. So it may change here as we post our year-end results, but $25 million of Adjusted EBITDA was expected at that point here for HOA. As we look ahead, just with structuring the business optimally, we just told you, we think it's going to be $80 million here as we look ahead. So very significant value creation. Rynoh was also 2021, $32 million purchase price.

It was expected to be about break-even. We turned that business. It'll do $8.4 million this year. I actually just looked back and what do we say when we did a deep dive in this business two-ish years ago? We said it was going to be eight, I think it was. And so we've executed that. As we look ahead, that business will approximately double over the next couple of years given the price increases and a little bit of market return. Guardian is our smallest acquisition that we've done. So take different extremes. You may not have heard about it because it was so small. So it was a $1 million cash purchase price back in 2018. Payment processing system was about $500,000 of EBITDA when we had acquired it. It was $3.2 million this year in a market which has had headwinds.

So this is another business where if there's more transactions, it goes straight to the bottom line. This will grow meaningfully here as we look ahead. But those are just a few examples. I could keep going. V12. V12 was meaningfully unprofitable, now meaningfully profitable. And as we talked about, our data business will grow very fast, very strategically impactful. You could go through American Home Protect, one of our core warranty businesses. We've grown profits substantially, grown that business substantially. Even our businesses like Floify or Inspection or Moving businesses that have taken the brunt of the housing market headwinds, those businesses have actually held up really well, like we've talked about, and we expect them to grow really nicely here as we look ahead, both revenue and EBITDA. So anyway, the point being is that we have been able to execute well for those businesses.

And we have a whole system and a playbook here. So again, we're not looking to turn M&A back on imminently, but it is another option for us when the time is right to be able to accelerate growth. And we think it's a capability set that we have. We have a full integration playbook to be able to bring an acquisition in, be able to integrate it. And frankly, we've invested in that over these last two and a half years as we push pause on M&A so that it is set up for us to be able to turn this back on in the future when the time is right. When we do, we would look at extending our existing businesses. We would look at potentially new verticals. We would look at additional ways to be able to monetize across our platform.

So we'd be looking at strategic plays, looking at the right types of EBITDA multiples to make sure that they are accretive. The thing that I would want to impress is, okay, we've got a strategy and a system. Do we have the right people in place that are going to be able to go and actually get this done? And one of the things that I'm most proud of, of any slide probably that we put up, is we've just got an incredible team. You met five of us today. Most of the people leading us run those businesses, run the divisions. But it's an incredible group of people. Our General Counsel, Matt Cullen, was previously M&A lead at Expedia. Our HR leader was a similar type of role at Amazon and at Microsoft previously. Corporate controller had a similar type of role at Kemper, so deep insurance expertise.

Our corporate development leader, he's obviously led a lot of the acquisitions here at Porch, but had a similar role at Microsoft previously. The bottom row here is our five division leaders. So those are the people to whom those business units report up to these individuals. Matthew talked before about our insurance leadership. Not only has Ephraim just fit our values perfectly and a great leader for that business, that division, his team is exceptionally strong. In fact, we're going to be excited to announce a new growth leader here on that team with exceptional background and experience to be able to add strength. Joshua is the COO at some real estate software businesses. But underneath Joshua, he has our software businesses report up. The leader of our Rynoh business was previously the president of Zillow Closing Services.

So deep background in the title space, built an incredible team around that. Leader of our Floify business, multiple-time CEO. We're really excited about what she's doing. Nick Graham leads our Moving Division. He was the GM of Hotwire at Expedia and spent years and years at Hotwire, or excuse me, at Expedia across marketplaces. So he knows that playbook really well. Malcolm had built a $100 million-plus warranty business previously. And so now he's doing that here. And then Michelle, she was with V12. And so she spent years leading that business. And we're excited about the team that she's built up, 50-plus years across her leadership team in the data business. So not only am I really confident about the people that we've been able to bring together, we've designed the incentives such that they're aligned with shareholders, aligned with you all.

Personally, I am very aligned with our shareholders. I'm the largest shareholder in the company. So I certainly, if shareholders win, I do as well. In fact, I've purchased shares. I've bought more stock along the way and very much believe in terms of what we're doing. Our named executive officers, their primary compensation comes from performance-based stock, performance-based RSUs. And so they win as our shareholders win. But it's the same thing with our division and our business unit leaders where we've built their incentive structure around partly a Rule of 40, so growing their margins and their growth, and partly around profitability execution. That's been a focus for us and that will continue around driving EBITDA. And then lastly, here in this section, our values are real. The first thing you'll see when you walk into one of our offices, no jerks, no egos.

I fundamentally believe you can be a good human and be kind and still build a great business. We won't be in a room yelling at each other. And part of what that means is that when things are going great, when the economy's perfect, everybody's getting along, it's easy. It's an easy game to lead a business. The values really show up when things are choppy. And that's just life. That's business. Sometimes things are choppy. And so you saw this over these last couple of years. It's a hard market. And we still executed, I think, really, really well. The team's in it. The team's engaged. The team's in it for the long term. Solve each problem is something near and dear to my heart. I think that's about perseverance in part. I will grind and grind and grind until I get to the outcome.

That's just kind of what I've done for my career. Be ambitious. We're not looking to hit a single or a double here. I have no interest in that. We are going to build a very, very large company. Again, that's the whole point of this whole endeavor for me. Okay, let me wrap. Four key takeaways from today that I want to make sure folks leave with. Number one, our Insurance Services business is, like Shawn said, is this key inflection point. When we got approval related to launching the reciprocal, that was a very important milestone for our business that we've been working toward for a couple of years. Highly profitable, highly predictable here as we go forward. Our businesses that we have are very unique and important. They obviously impact our strategy. They also are valuable and growing into themselves.

I will repeat what I said at the beginning. We are going to go deliver the $100 million Adjusted EBITDA target in 2026. Period. I hope you see the buildup and why we're confident and the levers we have to create upside as we look ahead. And then lastly, after we deliver that, the thing that I would just want to impress on you is that we would just be getting started. That's the reality. And so we're looking to go build a very large business, huge markets, and differentiated capabilities that allow us to go do that. And so one of the highlights, why do we think it's a good investment? You know insurance, you know data's large industries, but we're playing in lots of large markets. We have a strategy with competitive moats that is defensible. This business is profitable.

So again, $50 million of Adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2024. And like Shawn said, we expect to be Adjusted EBITDA profitable every quarter going forward. Our team is here for the long term. We have a record of executing. We are executors. We are operators at the core. And then lastly, with 80% gross margins and 40% long-term EBITDA margins, this is going to be a business that'll be attractive to scale. With that, I hope you agree that this is a great time to be spending time together. And again, for those that are interested out there in the world, we'd love to have you join us on the journey. So thanks very much for your time today. We appreciate it. With that, we're going to open it up for questions.

And again, analysts, if any that are in the room, Jason, you can start us off. It would be great if you can do a mic so people on the virtual can hear you. That'd be awesome.

Jason Helfstein
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks, Matt. And thanks, everybody today for all the information. Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer. I mean, I guess I'll do two. One on insurance and then one just broader on Consumer Services. What could go wrong for 2025? Won't the insurance industry broadly be leaning into growth? Competition increases just because the health of the industry should be better next year. Within that question, I think probably the most confusing thing is how you use reinsurance and how it will change under PIRE versus how you've used it in the past. That's question one.

Two, Matt, you've wanted to lean into Consumer Services for many years, but really didn't have the capacity given the challenges around getting insurance right. Now that PIRE is set up, how does this impact your ability to lean into services? Thanks.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

That's great. Good questions. I'll kick us off, Matthew. And if you want to lean in behind me, that's great. So let's talk about insurance first. First question. So what could go wrong in 2025? How does reinsurance change? We've got to kick the growth engine back on. I mean, so that's clearly what the focus is at this point. Starting November 1st, we've kind of been waiting, waiting, waiting to get the reciprocal approval to get the model correct. Now we go kick it on. So the encouraging thing is as we've turned geographies back on, as we allow for new agents to start getting appointed again, as we start building the growth team, we are seeing that already start to move the funnel. And so we think that we're on track, but we have to go execute. I mean, it's an execution play, certainly, there.

We got work to do because we had paused growth for a couple of years to kind of reactivate our agency channel. Again, like Matthew said, the nice thing is that when you go talk to an agency and you have leads of home buyers and you have a differentiated value prop and you have compensation where, hey, if you deliver a profitable business, we share in some of that upside or PIRE shares in some of that upside. That's a compelling value proposition for them. By providing them leads when the homeowner does come from one of our channels, our cost, our economics basically are 2x better. We get economics back if it's a lead that we provide to them. We still got to go execute on the growth channel. In terms of reinsurance, we've been running a non-weather quota share program for years.

So again, running a captive reinsurer is a pretty normal thing in the insurance industry because it provides capital efficiency. So it's not that different from the types of things that we've been doing. We just are going to continue that going forward. It's just now there's the separation between the carrier as it's now owned by the policyholder, and then we will be the operator, including that captive. But there's not, I mean, you have to go get regulatory approval each year. We've done that for many years around the quota share terms. But generally, those terms just map to the market terms. And so it's pretty straightforward in terms of how you go about doing that. Before I go to the Consumer Services, anything that I missed that you would want to add around just operationally what we have to go execute on in 2025?

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

We shut down all the levers, and so we'll go turn those back on, and we've set targets we believe are achievable.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

One last thing, maybe, to note on that, that helps us on the 2025 gross written premium goal. We continue to have more rate going into the system. So some of the rate that's already been approved is just in process of rolling out. There's more filings that we've done. And so that rate just helps move gross written premium just naturally. And so again, the great thing is even though, yes, the market's better, you still see carriers across the board raising rates. And so that's just the dynamic of the market. Yes, people are potentially reopening up their appetite for growth. I do think that we're probably a bit ahead. We moved our price earlier than other carriers. But you see across the industry, people are starting to take more rate. You want to talk about Consumer Services?

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Yeah. I mean, the first thing I'll say, insurance is still at the center. So the company is going to be very focused on that opportunity. We have put a lot of energy into that over the last couple of years to be able to get to this spot. I do think there's going to be space for us to invest and grow our Consumer Services. And some of those businesses, actually, a lot of those businesses have been hit with the slowdown in the housing market. So as we see that start to pick up, especially since those businesses made a lot of, Shawn mentioned this, but we cut costs, we restructured, they're in a position where they're more investable and we can scale them. With a little bit of tailwind, I think there could be some exciting growth there.

And then, as I mentioned, with warranty, we have a lot of warranty products and a lot of channels. And so there's a number of interesting opportunities in that mix. And then moving and Moving Place creates a whole new business opportunity for us as we shift from moving labor only to going into the local full service and the ancillaries that actually a lot of our demand channels bring those customers in, but they come and we can't actually help them. And so being able to help them, we'll be able to reuse some of the go-to-market investments we already have today.

Jason Helfstein
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks.

Hi. Maybe leaning into that risk factors of the insurance model. I maybe want to ask about when switching to this reciprocal model, what are some of the benefits of the old model or the model that you guys currently have that you may be losing when switching to this?

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, yeah. Great question. So two things. One, our balance sheet, it becomes very capital-light going forward. So the balance sheet of HOA moves over to the new reciprocal. But one of the reasons that all these big insurance carriers don't just move to reciprocal is they are balance sheet-centric companies. We don't want to be a balance sheet-centric company. But for most of those insurance carriers, that is the core business, bring in lots of assets, invest those assets, big teams around investing those assets. That is at the center of what they're doing. But that's one. Some people would look at that as a disadvantage that you shift that balance sheet, the assets and the liabilities over to that entity. Second is, on really good years where there's not very much weather, you don't get as much economics. So we get our take rate, and it's consistent.

And so basically, that's what the expected profit effectively is out of the entity is what our take rate is. And so what that means is when the weather's choppy, great, we do better. We don't deal with volatility. But if there was no weather at all, you may have made more in the old model. So it kind of smooths that out for us. It takes away the volatility. We think that's really valuable just as a public company in terms of the investment model for investors because you can predict it exactly what it's going to be. But again, you wouldn't have made as much money in a certain year if the scenario was right.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

The only other thing I'd add in case it wasn't clear is operationally, there's no additional complexity. We're basically all the people, all the processes will stay with Porch to be able to operate it on behalf of the reciprocal.

Shawn Tabak
CFO, Porch Group Inc

As further to add to that, we do expect the reciprocal PIRE to organically add surplus. I think in Manisha's slide, she showed 5%. As the number of folks that choose the PIRE product increase and make that surplus contribution, that could even get up to 10%. We do expect that continued organic growth of profitability and surplus at the exchange reciprocal PIRE level.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

I'm going to just build on that to trigger one more answer, which is so if we had the whole carrier entity, again, we would participate when it's a good year. But let me just comment on let's assume that it's a really good year over in PIRE. Well, if it is, Shawn talked about, we already have regulatory approval to be able to take our take rate from 20%- 25%. So we don't have to go back and get more regulatory approval. And so there's ways, mechanisms for us to be able to change that take rate should it be a good year. So we've built that in to be able to still get more economics if it is really good year, number one. Or if it's a really good year, surplus grows faster. And we just talked about what that means.

Now we can just grow premium faster because there's more surplus there to support it. We still benefit when there are good years. It's just in a slightly different way. Yep. Thank you.

Thank you, panelists.

Cal Bartyzal
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Cal Bartyzal from Craig-Hallum. So maybe just a couple from me. Maybe first to start, you talked about requiring $100 million surplus to hit your 2025 gross written premium targets. Can you just talk a little bit about the confidence that that's enough flexibility there and any other actions that you're looking into to expand that surplus? And then secondly, you touched on some ambitious targets for premium growth and expanding into more GOs. So what are the guardrails with the Home Factors data that you can put in place to continue to maximize the monetization of your Home Factors data without kind of that becoming a competitive conflict with your growth ambitions and premiums? Thanks.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Do you want to take the first one?

Shawn Tabak
CFO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, sure. So I think as I mentioned, the first one really gets to the surplus health at PIRE. I think Manisha showed on the slide. There's about a five-to-one ratio there. So $500 million of premium, you need about $100 million of surplus to go execute against that. We have north of $100 million of surplus that we're expecting at the end of this year. And then for me, the thing again that I build on top of that is, one, the unit economics generate more surplus. And within the unit economics, we're assuming there's a hurricane. And so we're not going to have a hurricane every year, but we want to make sure that PIRE is set up in a really healthy position. And so we've kind of modeled that in. That's included in that 80% column that we showed there.

So that's how I think about it.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

And let me even add to it, which is because you're hitting on the question, do we have enough buffer essentially to be able to kind of make sure we're confident we can go achieve the goals? I'll just first say yes. I mean, we clearly won't disclose every bit of information. But I would say yes, we are confident in the surplus level, how the surplus builds up, that we feel very good about being able to say, hey, we're going to go do $500 million of gross written premium. And Shawn just said we in our assumptions over at PIRE assume that a large hurricane is going to roll through our centers and be a very destructive hurricane. That's in the assumptions. We assume in addition to that, very conservative assumptions just around weather generally in there.

So we have, I would say, meaningful buffer in our assumptions that it's going to be another, just like we kind of seen in the last two years, but another bad year. And that's fine. It works. The economics work really well. And PIRE remains really healthy even if it's a really bad year. And so if it's not, then great. There's even not much more surplus. But even if it's a bad year, there's other things we have with the surplus number to feel confident that we're in a good spot there.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

In terms of the second question, do you want to jump in?

Nicole Pelley
Data Platform Lead, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, I think that was exciting. Second question was, how do we make sure Home Factors gives us a competitive advantage in the HOA and Porch Insurance carrier? So there's a few things I think about. So first of all, HOA today, 2% market share in Texas. That's our largest market. So there's just a huge amount of the industry that is non-competitive that is available for us. The second thing I would say is that I believe strongly going out and learning, working with other carriers, learning that will accelerate our learnings broadly, which we'll be able to take into the HOA and Porch Insurance carriers. And then the third thing I would say is the primary mechanism in which we provide Home Factors to carriers is by API.

That also gives us a lot of leeway on our side to determine what factors we make available and to which consumers. And given all the data we have in our platform, we can be strategic about that. So I believe that overall, it's a smart thing to do to go out to market. I believe there's a lot of area that's non-competitive. I believe we'll learn quickly. And overall, that will be better for HOA and Porch Insurance.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Let me also though give you. I'm just going to lay it out again and give you just a little sneak peek of how we think about it. Because again, you're thinking like, okay, are you going to go monetize? What are you going to hold back? So there's some obvious things. We're not going to play in California. We're going to underwrite in Florida or underwrite in Louisiana. Of course, you can go sell your data there. There's no competitive issues. Let's just talk about Texas. Matthew just talked about our focus is not everybody. Our focus is a very certain set of consumers, home buyers, homeowners with lower risk homes. But let's just talk about home buyers. Well, we can go and be able to monetize HomeFactors data for everyone that's not a home buyer. Maybe we decide to hold back.

or maybe we hold back all the Home Factors data for home buyers so we can be different or unique. Maybe we hold back a subset of Home Factors we know are really valuable for this particular slice of consumers. but now you're talking about a very small set of people where we kind of maintain a competitive and strategic advantage long term so we can price most effectively. but we can still go monetize for the vast, vast, vast majority of opportunities that are out there. but the nice thing is that we have that lever to pull. We can just choose what data do we want to sell, what Home Factors do we want to sell, for which particular addresses and which particular consumers at any time because we have a set of APIs set up with Home Factors.

Carriers ping us requesting, "Hey, I want this particular Home Factors for this address." We can decide if we want to sell that or not. At the end of the day, you have this model, this platform where we will be able to be thoughtful and strategic forever about, okay, how are we going to create the most value for shareholders at the end of the day. Is it by holding that back, maintaining it for our own pricing? Is it by selling it? If you have 10 carriers that all want to buy it, it might be more valuable to monetize it than it is to hold that back. Those are the types of choices that we'll be able to make long term that allows us to be able to create a lot of value.

Manisha Patel
SVP of Finance, Porch Group Inc

And one thing to add, Cal, is that this product is a high margin. So a lot of fixed operating costs, a strong operating leverage. So another attractive trade for that product.

Jonathan Bass
Research Associate, Stephens Inc.

This is Jonathan Bass for John Campbell with Stephens. So over time, is there any kind of regulatory or natural limit that you can drive that take rate up to? What's the potential there?

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, that 25% is basically 500 basis points of additional room that we've gotten regulatory approval to be able to move up to. And so what would be a natural way to do it? You would tick up the take rate a little bit of time in future years to be able to accelerate your growth, expand your margins sequentially as you go. But like we talked about, we don't have to. That way we can move faster if we want to. But that's been built into the approval that we've received.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Did you have one more? Look like you had one.

Jonathan Bass
Research Associate, Stephens Inc.

Yeah, maybe as a follow-up, and I'm not sure if I fully understand this, but so will you guys be selling two different insurance products, one under HOA and one under Porch Insurance, correct? And the one under Porch Insurance benefits you guys more because that's how you can create that surplus generation, which creates the higher take rate. How do you guys ensure that that insurance product is being sold, and does that sort of cannibalize the HOA product?

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

I'm going to take it.

Nicole Pelley
Data Platform Lead, Porch Group Inc

Just go for it. I mean, the thing that I think about, so if you think about Porch Insurance, Matthew talked about this a lot, but it has a differentiated value prop, and so the Porch Insurance product has more protections than the HOA product has. You get coverages that you don't get through HOA. It has additional benefits for members. They get discounts that aren't available in the HOA, and so there are capabilities that you will get through Porch Insurance that you would not have in HOA, and then in addition, there's incentives for agents, and so we believe overall, the Porch Insurance product is a stronger value proposition, and therefore, we should see strong conversions even with a slightly higher price point.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, but when we go to market in January, HOA and Porch will be two products within the reciprocal. We'll keep HOA indefinitely. It'll be a lower market where Porch will be upper market. Our channel, which is agents, will have more incentive to sell the Porch product. And they'll be able to speak to all those benefits that Nicole mentioned to their customers.

Jonathan Bass
Research Associate, Stephens Inc.

Got it. Thank you.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Thank you.

Thank you. Quick question on Home Factors. I think you said that there's not going to be a lot of revenue in 2025 and a little in 2026. But you provided a 10-year target of growth for the software business. Looking 10 years out, that $500 million of growth, how much is Home Factors?

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, we won't break it out specifically. Obviously, we chose not to break out the segments. I figured we would get that kind of a question. I think Shawn hit on it. We're not being overly ambitious because it's a new product, and so we haven't proven it fully. Obviously, we're getting wins with a certain set of carriers. Proof of concepts are going well. But we want to see the whole thing work for a certain extended period of time and really understand the go-to-market math and what returns we're getting on more salespeople before we go and can fully load it into the long-term models. So I think the words we would use there would be, we have modest assumptions as it relates to Home Factors. As you go longer, you have increasingly a bigger impact as you look ahead.

But what we've decided to do is not break out individual business units across the board. Just keep it at that segment level.

Shawn Tabak
CFO, Porch Group Inc

Just to add a little bit to the build-up, we are in market. We now have paying customers. But if you think about the go-to-market, we need to build the team. We'll reach out to carriers. They'll need to do a test. And so the sales cycle is long. So even though we are full steam ahead now, it'll just take into 2026 to start seeing the revenue impact just because of how the sales cycles work. And then we'll see it accelerate from there.

On the long-term leverage target in 2026, I'll call it three times, there seems to be embedded that you're going to pay off the '26 notes in cash or with equity. Or are you expecting surplus to come back from the insurance carrier?

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, I think on the 2026, I'll reiterate kind of what I've said on that is that we have a plan to address those. It is something that we talk about with our board. We will continue to be patient on that given the low coupon on that. And that's our comments on that.

Thank you. Could you guys give a break?

If you wouldn't mind using the mic so they can hear you on the virtual.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Can you guys give a breakout for insurance EBITDA for 2025 and 2026, what the split is between the reinsurance and your take rate?

Shawn Tabak
CFO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, again, it would be a similar answer, which is we're not breaking out the financials at a business unit or product line. We're keeping it at the segment. We've talked about how the revenue split is comparable. And obviously, we've shared kind of the whole gross margin. I would say both have healthy margins, each of our different kind of lines. And so they have healthy margins, good product lines for us. But we're not breaking out the details at an individual product or business unit level.

Got it. So the reason I asked is because, Shawn, for your sum of the parts analysis, you mentioned that you were benchmarking to Erie, right? The EBITDA margin implied here seems a lot higher than what Erie is reporting. So I was wondering, is that from a much higher EBITDA from reinsurance? Is there something else operationally that's just much better? Why is that the case?

Yeah, I can't necessarily speak to Erie. I could talk to how we have confidence in the insurance segment Adjusted EBITDA. I think it was $80 million in 2026. I think the first thing is the health of the, well, just overall the model is very lucrative from our perspective.

I think as we talked about today, on the take rate revenue, which is about half of the 40% conversion from GWP to revenue, we have very high incremental margins on that, pretty much primarily fixed costs. And so it really is just a function of that gross written premium, amount of gross written premium. And then it just very methodically flows through down to a bottom line number for us. And sitting here today, as we talked about our growth strategy there, redeploying with our agents, we've already historically in 2022 done the volume that we would essentially need to be able to get to that $600 million of Adjusted EBITDA. Sorry, $600 million of gross written premium. And so it really does start with that top number of gross written premium. And then the rest is just math, really. That's formulaic that gets you down to that bottom.

That's how I would think about it.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

And let me just give you a little bit more on that question because I think it's a good question. There are a couple of, there are some differences in terms of the model. So one you just highlighted, the captive and the non-weather quota share, where we have maintained low volatility, but it's another way to be able to create value both for the reciprocal and for Porch Group shareholders. That would be a difference. The surplus note interest, Manisha talked about, what are the bells and whistles? We get economics in a few ways. The take rate, the quota share reinsurance program, and then the surplus note interest. And so again, that would be different.

Matthew Ehrlichman
CEO and Founder, Porch Group Inc

Basically an EBITDA, like the interest from the surplus.

Matthew Neagle
COO, Porch Group Inc

Yeah, yeah, for us, it doesn't really matter. You could go to the reciprocal and say, hey, we'll take lower interest and higher take rate. It's all the same to the reciprocal. It's all the same to us, and it creates cash flow for our shareholders. And so it doesn't really matter how we toggle it, frankly, that much. We have a collective set of economics that come across to us. But then on the cost side, agent commissions we talked about is at the reciprocal for us. And so our costs on the Porch Group side really are those fixed costs that we talked about. And that's not the same of all operators. Sometimes they do carry some of the variable costs. And so some of the cost structure is different also.

Got it. Thank you. And then just can I squeeze in one last one? Okay, thank you. Could you give just some color on the volume and the price in terms of growth in the premium growth through 2026?

When you say volume and price, what do you mean?

Just like premium, the amount of increase in premium or the number of policies you're writing. How are you thinking about the split there?

Yeah, sure. We've been north of mid-teens percent increases in terms of price. In fact, in our next earnings, we provide disclosure around kind of the level of price increases we've done over time. I just actually shared just a moment ago that we are taking more rate as we go on the market. And so it is in that, again, that double-digit plus type rate. So there's meaningful more rate that's coming through. So I suppose with that, you could probably take that and then get a sense for kind of units, policies. But we will be taking more rate that obviously helps our premium goals.

Thank you.

Thank you. With that, I will wrap up and just say thank you for the time for folks in person. Thank you for those that joined virtually. Again, we value your time and we appreciate it. For those that are in person, take a 10-minute break. We will be hanging around on tables out there. We'd love to take any other questions that you have and get to know you better. So with that, thanks very much. Appreciate it.

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