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Wells Fargo’s Clean Energy Symposium

Mar 28, 2023

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. We are very excited to have SolarEdge Technologies with us here. Ronen Faier, the CFO, is joining me this afternoon. It's been a long day already. Guess it's already this afternoon. Thank you very much for being here.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Thank you for having me.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Appreciate it. Would love this to be as interactive as possible, so if you have questions, just raise your hand, don't be shy. In the meantime, I will ask the questions. I would, you know, probably the first place to start, I think the most pressing topic for everyone right now is the financial markets, access to capital, cost to capital liquidity. maybe you could just talk through where SolarEdge's balance sheet liquidity stands and any impacts that you're seeing from this, the SVB and all those fun topics.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure. First of all, we're happy that all of our funds are, we believe, in relatively spread across relatively large and strong banks. Today, SolarEdge is about $1.7 billion on its balance sheet, of which $650 million are related to a convertible loan that we issued at the end of 2020, and actually are still in the money, meaning that, you know, still price is to be converted. From a balance sheet perspective, we have a very strong balance sheet where of course, assets or liquid assets is much higher than liquid or I would call it a short-term liability that we have, generating cash flow.

Therefore, no big issue that we see today. Most of it is really held in American banks, and of the larger American banks. As a mean of anecdote, SVB used to be our bank when we started. Thanks to SVB, we were able to fund our business when nobody was funding us. In a sense, it's a little bit sad for me personally to see it happening, while about four years ago, I decided together with my treasurer, that maybe they become a little bit too small for us to hold our monies there. Right now, we do not see any issue, not from a banking point of view. We do not need to access capital markets because we have enough cash, and we generate. Also, it also touches some of our customers. At least from our larger customers, we do not see any big exposure that they have either as access to capital or, from their banking position. I think that at least this wave, I'm not sure if there's gonna be another one, but, we've crossed it unharmed.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Great. I'm definitely rooting for there not to be another wave.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Yeah.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Actually, I had an investor email me, a question that they can't be here today, but they really wanted me to ask you this question.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Okay.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

I'm gonna ask it right now. They're really interested to hear your thoughts on Europe's Net-Zero Act.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Mm-hmm.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

That was just proposed or a couple, I guess, last week or week before.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Yeah. Yeah.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

You know, how real do you think it is? What kind of impact do you think it will have? Is there anything tangible? Any initial thoughts that you might have on that?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

I think that, first of all, we need to understand that when it comes to European policymaking, it's a little bit more complicated in the U.S., given the fact that there is no central or federal government there. You find sometimes that Europe is one continent, but many countries with very different capabilities, and sometimes social views and abilities to implement one unified policy. First of all, from what we understand from the policy, it is just going through the first stage because there are several hierarchies of the European Commission that needs to go through, and right now it is the lowest hierarchy.

It seems that it's mostly about making access to capital a little bit easier, mostly about how to make sure that policies are more aligned, on the country's level. We do not see right now two major things that exist in the IRA, and one is a manufacturer credit that is well pronounced as it is in the IRA. There is a kind of manufacturer credit that is proposed, but it's relatively small. It is not on. It will be only in specific countries, and in many cases, it is including right now modules, maybe batteries, not inverters yet. So I'm not sure that it's going to touch it. Then again, we do not see a unified policy. I think that what we need to understand, though, is that the overall environment in Europe is an environment that encourages solar.

Here, sometimes the various countries' policies are more important than one unified policy of the EU. For example, Germany canceled in January this year, the VAT payments on solar installations. This was 19% cost that went out of the equation simply because of this. I think that the Net-Zero, and by the way, there are two more policies related to it, is a declarative in a sense that Europe understand that in light of the IRA, they need to be a little bit easier to implement a pro, I would call it clean energy policies.

I think that right now it's a little bit more declarative, and I think that eventually we'll see something that is simply simplifying things rather than actually taking real money that is out there and, giving it to investors or to manufacturers.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Got it. Thank you. Since we're talking about Europe, I mean, you have a, you know, very large presence in Europe. I know, the last time we talked, you said demand was far outstripping supply. What you could get into the country, I think you had like a six-month backlog.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Mm-hmm.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Where does that stand today? Yeah, maybe just start there and maybe I know, maybe talk through like lead times you have in Europe right now and where you think that's going.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure. The situation is that it's I would say positively unchanged, meaning that the demand continues to be very strong, and I think that today most dynamics are related more to the ability to supply rather than the demand. What we continue to see is the combination of relatively low interest rate environment, where usually in Europe, most installations are done at least in residential, using private money, not based on loans like you see in the United States. It means that there is no good alternative for investment. Plus, the fact that electricity prices hiked so much that in Germany, for example, you pay today EUR 0.70 per kWh .

I think that in the U.S., the average will be based on time of use, but around $0.25, creates a situation where in most European countries you see ROI on an investment of 2.5 to four years. Germany will be about 2.5 . Netherlands will be around four years. This is something that is unchanged. The result is that the demand is booming, and we see right now a situation where for at least commercial, we're fully booked to the end of the year, not because the customers wants to get next year, but because this is what we can provide right now.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Sure.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

On residential, we are having a lot of orders. We can still take orders for the year, but we're relatively limited there. From supply point of view, our situation is that on the single-phase inverters, which are mostly going to countries like the Netherlands, U.K., or sorry, Netherland's old houses, U.K., Belgium, France, most of the supply issues that we had are somehow improved, where we believe that you will be able to see about three months to four months of lead time in about a quarter or so. It comes to the commercial products, the three-phase products, there still we see very large component shortages that are pushing sometimes supply time to six and nine months simply due to the fact that there is a capacity issue there. I combine this with two more elements that we see there.

One is that when we are looking at the inventory on hand, when it comes to our distributors, the channels are pretty, I would say, low on inventory in most cases. At the same time, we see that the outflow of products to customers are growing to record levels. All in all, it very much supports our understanding as well that the demand is there and it's there to stay for, I believe, relatively long time.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

I wanted to talk a little bit about the trajectory of gross margins.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Mm-hmm.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Obviously last year you had some downward pressure. Seems like pretty much all of those factors which drove that are now reversing.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Mm-hmm.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

To some degree or another. I'm wondering if you could just kinda talk through the different elements that are gonna drive gross margin back to sort of prior levels.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

It'd be helpful.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure. I'll, first of all, limit my discussion mostly to the solar business. Solar business being about 94%, 95% of our revenues, and therefore, I think that this is the interesting part. In solar, there are two streams of revenues that we have today. We have inverters and optimizers, and we have batteries. On inverters and optimizers, the main issue that we faced, last 1.5 years, I would say, that started to be resolved in the fourth quarter was component shortages. The combination of COVID, and very high demand for EVs, that is basically an industry that competes with us on the same components.

That is coupled with the fact that most of the component manufacturers, mostly around power semiconductors that are very much limited with their ability to grow capacity very quickly because you need to build a fab, it's very expensive. We saw a kind of al location mode that did not allow us to grow as much as we wanted to grow. If you add to it also a little bit of COVID-related shutdowns in China, result was that the demand was very high. We were promising products to our customers. Because of the war with Ukraine, everyone needed product because they expected a very tough winter in Germany and in Europe in general. The only way to overcome things was simply to airship almost everything that came to Europe. Air shipping is 10 times more expensive than ocean freight.

That was already very much high at that point of time. This created, when we discussed it in Q2 2022, about 500 basis points pressure on our gross margins. An additional 100 basis point pressure that came from the fact that if we could not manufacture in other places in order to ship to the United States, we manufactured in China, and then we suffered from tariffs. All of these factors are being resolved over time. First of all, we have the Mexico factory, where at the end of the year already provided the vast majority of our products that's coming to the United States. We do see that on components, it's not that we have much more components, but at least we have availability that is much more predictable, and therefore, we're able to ship.

The result is that out of the 600 basis points that we expected that will be recovered until, sorry, that 500 of these will be recovered until the end of Q2, about 160 basis points were already recovered in Q3 and Q4 last year. A little bit of it will be recovered this quarter as well, not a large amount because Q1 is characterized with Chinese New Year. Again, you have a little bit of manufacturing shortages, will be resolved towards Q2. We feel very comfortable there. We see, as you mentioned, that everything is working in our favor. First of all, Euro to dollar rate is back to where it close to where it used to be in the past.

We do see that shipping costs are going back on a container basis to where they were about two years ago. Therefore, we believe that most of it is being resolved. We believe that we can exit Q2 2023 with inverters and optimizers margin being at 36 ±1%, as we predicted. The one thing that is impacting gross margins and taking it to solar gross margins between 30%-32% now or decreasing the gross margins are batteries. Battery is becoming a major portion of our revenues, especially because a lot of our sales are going to Europe, where attachment rate is, in some of the countries, high double digits. In Germany, it's about 64% as of last quarter. In Italy, it's around 50%. U.K. is about 47%.

In general, in this case, we have products that are very high unit price, which means they bring a lot of revenue. They will be up to 25% gross margins. We're getting close to this, and I believe that we'll be close to this, or maybe arriving in Q2. When you combine all of this takes gross margin down. The last point about it is that while we are all looking at gross margins, the margins that we're very much counting is actually operating margins because batteries also bring with them a much better operating leverage that allows us to stay at 20%-22% eventually net operating profit or margins, when we sell batteries, which is very similar to the inverters. It impacts gross margins, but I would say not impact the profit margins when it comes to net operating profits.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Great. I mean, Do you have a question?

Speaker 3

I have some as well.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Go ahead. Go ahead, please.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Yeah, just on the topic on the batteries. What was behind decision-making of doing your own battery manufacturing instead of just, you know, putting a label on a whatever Chinese manufacturer?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

I divide it to two aspects of making a battery. Battery is made out of battery cells, and on the battery cells, you add the BMS, the battery management systems, and all of the mechanical parts above them. By the way, these two elements need to be questioned separately because they all have different reasoning. I'm starting from the easier one. To make a battery out of battery cells, the main reason to do this was, first of all, due to the fact that we believe that by creating our own battery that works as a system with our own inverters and optimizers, we can, first of all, get a better one-stop shop for our customers. You know, today, most of the batteries installed in the United States are still installed with SolarEdge inverters.

Because if you take the Tesla Powerwall, if you take LG batteries, if you take SolarEdge batteries, they're all installed mostly with SolarEdge inverters. What we saw is that when we're making our own battery, where the system is designed to work with our product, you see much less failures or calls coming to our support center because you have one head that is responsible for everything, and we do not need to throw the customers between call centers of the battery maker or the inverter maker. It doesn't sound like very important for us. For installers who are sitting on the roof, it's a major issue if they can resolve everything within one call. That was the first reason.

The second reason, which is much more important, is that actually you can design a product that works seamlessly. When we start to see that component shortages are alleviated in a sense, the biggest problem starts now to be working hands. The ability of an installer to do two installations a day compared to one is not only important for them as installers because they make double the money, but it's actually related to the ability to actually grow the market itself. It's very important. What we do see is that when you have a system that was designed A to Z by yourself, commissioning time is very quick. Our commissioning time at the very beginning of our installations were around 45 minutes. Today, with our newer versions, we see anything between 15 minutes to five minutes of commissioning time.

In many times, is the main difference of making two sites a day or one. This is why we decided that we want to do our own battery. We want to have one system that provides all of the benefit. Second question was, why do you go to battery chemistry, and why do you need this headache of having a gigafactory? The reason for this is, to be honest, you know, at the very beginning, nobody was actually willing to sell us battery cells. It's about five, six years ago, CATL was not that big. Samsung, LG, so was a company with less than $1 billion revenue for them, we were too small to deal with, and we were not able to get a source.

When we acquired Kokam, the main reason that we did it was because we understood that we want to be masters of our own destiny, we do not want to be at the mercy of Samsung or LG being able to get a better deal from Volkswagen and therefore providing us with cells they assert no. This was the starting point. Over time, we understood what kind of a powerful toy we have. What we understood is that when you design a battery, there's a kind of a pentagon of quality that you can get or attributions that you can get to the battery: cost, safety, number of cycles, energy density. What we found is that most batteries done today are using batteries designed for electrical vehicles that are moved into batteries that is doing ESS.

The main differentiator is that an battery cell made for EV needs to sustain for 1,500 cycles, while a battery that is designed for ESS would need to be sustaining between 6,000-9,000 cycles. How do you get with a 1,500 cycles battery designed for EV into 6,000 cycles? You basically put more batteries in the pack, and then you discharge the battery to, let's say, only 80%. Go to your phone manual, you'll see that Apple, Samsung, whoever makes your phone, will tell you that if you want to prolong the energy, the life of the battery, never discharge to a zero. That means that to get a 10 kW battery, you need to put 12.5 kW cells inside.

By designing our own cell with our own chemistry that we announced, by the way, two months ago, that we developed a cell that can sustain 8,000 cycles, that means that now I can really put 10 kW. Now, I also enjoy the cost structure of having my own chemistry and own cell. This is the reasoning between both of them. It's a hard, rocky way to get there because it's, you know, it's a very structured and many milestone process that you need to pass. Once you pass it, I believe that the advantages of having your own capacity and your own chemistry pays off simply by having better margins with much more flexibility.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Great. I have more battery questions.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Good.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

That's perfect. That worked out well.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Exactly.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Yeah. I mean, you gave us a little snippet into European demand for batteries because attach rates are quite high. What does that look like in the U.S.? As I understand it, and correct me if I'm wrong, you're really only selling into the residential market today?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Yes

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Are there any plans to expand into C&I or utility?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

First of all, I'll start from the later. The answer is yes. Just as we started with residential inverters, and then we expanded into commercial and utility, we believe that eventually all solar installations will be accompanied by batteries. If we have the capabilities to build systems that knows how to work together, why stopping at residential? It's just a matter of time, you know, until you get enough knowledge and experience to develop. Over time, we will be in all. By the way, today we have our residential battery that comes from SolarEdge. We also have a kind of utility- scale ESS, not solar type, it can work with solar, that we're already selling from Kokam, and this is mostly going for, what we call grid frequency regulation and spinning reserve. Here, definitely we wanna go there. When it comes to the, s orry, now I need the beginning of the question because my train of thought is not-

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Just the demand in the U.S.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Demand in the U.S. is much lower than we see in Europe. The main reason is, again, economics. In Europe today, if you go to Germany, you're mostly not allowed to push electricity into the grid because of the fact that the grid has relatively a lot of solar on it. Even if you push it to the grid, you will get relatively low amount when you push the energy. While at the same time, as I mentioned, you pay today EUR 0.70 per kWh . If you want to put a solar system on a rooftop, the best way to utilize it is simply to add a battery.

When you combine the battery cost, the electricity cost, the additional cost of the system because you need to put better inverter, you come to about 3.5 years of payback period on a system with a battery that will live for 25 years. When you go to the U.S., you find that interest rates are very high, electricity prices are relatively low, and batteries are very expensive because there is almost no Chinese batteries in the market. The result is that in some cases, you do not have any viable ROI for a battery-based system. If you want to have resilience for the next wildfire, then maybe you can do it for the next hurricane. It's not an economic decision, it's an investment in resiliency.

This is why, while we see high double-digit attachment rates in Europe, we see low single-digit attachment rate in the United States.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Another question I wanted to ask you, since you do make your own battery.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Yeah

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Is, and from what we understand, the Tesla Powerwall is the number one selling battery out there. Why is that, and what are you doing to compete with that?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure. First of all, this is limited to the U.S. market. If you go to Europe, you don't see Tesla. You see BYD, you see Huawei, you see SolarEdge, you see CHINT, you see Sungrow. You almost don't see Tesla. First of all, you know, Tesla batteries is a premium product. It's basically the vehicle battery packed as an ESS battery, amazingly well-designed product and relatively used to be relatively expensive. With the IRA, it can be a little bit cheaper. From our point of view, this was our strategy from the very beginning, we're not a closed garden. The majority of Tesla battery installations today are done actually with SolarEdge inverters. If you go to YouTube and look for SolarEdge, for a Tesla battery installation, you'll see a SolarEdge inverter. We're happy to sell more inverters with Tesla.

Not necessarily we want to compete with Tesla on that front. Now, when it comes to if we need to compete, what will be our value proposition? This will be, again, coming to the system approach. Once you buy everything from SolarEdge, you buy all the functionality, and you get all of the responsibility and all of the service from one-stop shop. Some people believe that there is a value to it. At the end of the day, we're equally happy to see Tesla batteries and SolarEdge batteries installed with SolarEdge inverters. Go ahead.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Yeah. On that topic, with California now, when you have Tesla battery, like, the customer installs Tesla battery, it's not gonna really help them to manage that, you know, the rates during the whatever time of, you know, time of the day.

With your solution, I believe you can actually, with the software, you can actually do that, right? Once you have the battery installed.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

This is correct.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

That's actually one of the reasons why Tesla might not be, I mean, any battery which doesn't work with your, with your, like, solution, it's not gonna help with that, right?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

No. First of all, the Tesla batteries work with our solution, and our software is actually managed by the inverters. SolarEdge inverters with the Tesla battery will be able to use the same scheme as a SolarEdge battery. This is why, as we said, it's an open garden. I think that eventually we need to understand that we're a small battery manufacturer. Tesla has today, I believe, over, I don't know, 20 GWh . We have 2 GWh.

We cannot make all the batteries. This is why we want to be open for everyone. The idea is that we allow most batteries to enjoy most of the features that we have in our systems, unless these are features that can be done only if you need the battery to cooperate with them, in a sense. In this case, I believe that Tesla can enjoy exactly the same scheme using our software. We will not block it. We really wanna be an open garden in this sense. Maybe just to turn a little bit to the IRA. Yeah. You said you think you're gonna capture the $0.11- Yes. -tax credit. I wonder if you can just expand on that a little bit.

Obviously you're making an optimizer, so are you getting feedback from Treasury or the IRS that gives you the confidence to make that statement or, you know? When are we gonna know? Okay. First of all, I wanna know as well when we wanna know. Right now, we believe that we're going to know by either the very end of this year or beginning of next year. Okay. For us, it's a little bit different situation because we need to understand that our inverters and optimizers, if you look at the functionality and you read what the IRA describes as a microinverter, from a functional point of view, we are a microinverter. We're not a Microinverter Technology, but from functionally, all functional reasons, we are. That what gives us the confidence.

We are working with SEIA on this. We believe that it's not for the benefit of the market to have one solution that is dominating the market. Therefore, we do not believe that the legislator wanted to give an advantage to one company over the other, especially given the fact that if one purpose of this act is to make more jobs in the U.S., then it will not create this kind of situation. The reason that we feel comfortable is because we simply believe that logic prescribed that we should get it, and we work with SEIA and trying also to approach the Department of Energy to help us there. We have no confidence that we will get it. No. Sorry. We have no assurance that we will get it.

Our working assumption is that we will. As such, the plan that we do is that we plan to manufacture both optimizers and inverters in the U.S. With that said, even if we don't get it, since manufacturing in the U.S. is so much more expensive than sometimes making products outside of the United States, even if we do not get the IRA for the optimizers, by manufacturing in Mexico and other locations, we can be in a very similar position compared to getting the IRA credit if we are not manufacturing in the U.S. I don't think that it's for the best interest of the United States. I'm not sure that it's right for the industry. If needed, we will simply do more units outside of the United States. Again, right now, we believe that we will get it, though.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. That's actually a good point to clarify. Are you definitely going ahead with US manufacturing?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

So, yes. Our plan is to start having manufacturing with a contract manufacturer by Q3 this year, and to build our own factory with manufacturing initiating at the later part of next year.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. The contract manufacturing you'll be doing this year, you'll be doing that probably with before you get Treasury guidance?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Correct. Yes.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. I guess the idea is that that's gonna be flexible.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Correct. Yeah.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

That's one of the things that is very nice with contract manufacturers, that they're very flexible with what they make. You simply need to make, have them prepared for this.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. What can you tell us about size in terms of how much capacity you would add this year, versus your own and CapEx associated with that?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Yeah. The idea, first of all, is to be within two years to be in a position where all of the U.S. demand is supplied out of the United States. Now, there are a little bit of, again, ambiguities that are not yet known in the legislation. For example, can you make products here, get the credit, and sell them to Europe? We're not sure if this is the case. Our assumption is that you will not be able to get those. We're working based on a very relatively, I would say, conservative assumption there. We would like mostly to fulfill everything coming from here in the United States.

The investment will depend on the size of the, whether we do optimizers or not here in the United States, and it's supposed to range between $150 million and $250 million of capital expenditures, both related to machinery and actually renovating the building that we're going to take to be a manufacturing facility.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

If I'm understanding the timing correctly, for your own facility, if you would build it, you think you'll get guidance sometime around year-end, and it would take roughly 12 months to build a facility. Is that right?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Approximately, yes. Because once you need to renovate and to start from scratch, it takes a little bit more time. Here, usually, rushing to manufacture means quality issues. Therefore, we would like to take it, I would say, in a very measured way.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. Got it. Okay.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

By the way, in between, of course, we will just navigate based on what we hear.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Right

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

How to manufacture with a contract manufacturer.

Speaker 3

Hi. I was just wondering if you could comment in terms of the demand trends that you're seeing in the U.S. resi market. There was some weakness in January, I guess. Did you think that's been picking up into February and March? Just any clarity you can provide there.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Maybe I was a little bit criticized because of it. We don't see the U.S. market being very, I would say, fast-growing market this year. Not to say maybe that it'll be relatively flat. We do not see a big chances that it will slow down, but we do not see it as a high-growth market. We do not have yet a lot of data about February and March, of course. Given where we are in the quarter, I'm not sure that I can comment too much, but our view has not changed dramatically, and this is coming from an analysis of the market.

The first thing is that the combination of low electricity prices, high interest rates, and the fact that it is a very loan- biased market in a sense, creates a situation where you get relatively long return on investment while you take relatively high risk because of the size of the installation. Installations in the U.S. are more expensive by about sometimes 40%-50% more expensive than in Europe. That's the one thing. Second thing is that the IRA, we believe, creates a little bit of a counterproductive impact at the very first year. Because until now, when the ITC used to go down year-over-year, you knew that if you're waiting for the next year, you will get lower tax credit. There was an incentive to make a quick decision.

Now, with the ITC set for the next 10 years, interest rates being high, and I believe that most people believe that they will not be as high, and electricity prices not hiking so quickly, the most interesting thing to do is actually to wait and see what happens, and therefore we do not see a lot of growth. The last thing, by the way, the NEM 3.0, that does add a little bit more of a certainty to the market. That's why we believe that it's going to be a flattish to a small growth market this year. We'll be happy to see that we're wrong. At least now, on this 36% of our overall business, because 64% is happening outside of the United States, we take a very cautious approach.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Just one more related question to this, IRA discussion.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Mm-hmm.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Is there any thought to manufacture batteries in the United States to take advantage of the tax credits?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Not at the beginning. First, because it's tough to build a factory in the U.S. I think that as a company, taking the effort of building a contract manufacturer, our own manufacturing in a battery manufacturer is relatively tough. It's something that may happen. Again, there are two stages, ways to do it. One, to make battery packs in the United States and enjoy the $10 per kWh . The second is to make battery cells. The second thing is that actually, the return on making a battery from IRA perspective is much lower than making an inverter and optimizer. Therefore, we want to harvest first, you know, this cash stream that will leave more money in our pocket.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Okay. Well, I'm running out of time here, but, so I don't know if I'll get to everything.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Okay

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

I did wanna ask you, one more question about the U.S. residential market. you know, certainly since 2017, you and Enphase have, you know, kind of enjoyed a close to a duopoly.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Mm-hmm

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Because of the rapid shutdown requirements in the U.S. From what at least I could see going to RE+ and things like that, there's a host of competitors that now can offer rapid shutdown in a central inverter configuration.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Yes.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

It seems like that barrier to entry is really no longer there from that perspective, if I understand it correctly.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

No. I think that you understand correctly, but there are several things that needs to be mentioned. First of all, by the way, when you go to conferences, you see a lot of solutions that do not materialize into a product eventually. I take everything with a little bit of a grain of salt.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Yeah.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Not because, by the way, they don't want. Simply because usually, there is a tendency to pre-show products that are not fully developed, and sometimes they're not getting to their endpoint. With that said, I think that no good viable market can live for a very long time with a duopoly. It needs to be a very specific market of acquired taste to do it. I don't know, I don't know how many other soda makers you see other than Coke and Pepsi. There's something that differentiates this market. I think that there will be a solution for, or more companies will have a solution for rapid shutdown. What will happen until then?

First of all, whoever is going to make these products will have to make them in relatively low quantities at the very beginning, simply because it is a duopoly market right now. The first barrier to entry will be cost. You saw it from Generac. The Generac solution did not very much catch market share simply because of the fact that it was relatively more expensive, and second, it was the first generation. How good can you make it compared to an Enphase that is doing the 9th generation product and we doing, you know, the fourth and the 5th and the 6th generation? I think that it's a little bit tougher. Second, from characteristics of the market, there is a stickiness to one brand once you start using it. We watch it very closely.

I think that we need to be very cautious and not being, I would say arrogant, saying that, you know, nobody will come in. That's usually the best way to lose market share by simply missing someone that will come in. At the same time, we do recognize that whoever will come will have to be highly differentiated and reasonably priced in order to start a real movement in market share dynamics.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Got it. Last questions here. All right. One more quick question from me. Maybe just on the utility scale business. I know you've talked in the past about scaling that, getting into that business in a bigger way. Can you just talk about the strategy and also the timing?

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Sure. Strategy is twofold. We first start with a product that is going to be large size commercial, small size utility, which is the 330 kW inverter. It's already being tested. We test it for a very long time because usually in this business you pay liquidated damages or production damages if you're not producing the expected amount. Therefore, we test it for a very long time. This is a product that bounds to go out during this year, and we believe that we will start capturing market share. For the long term, we do believe that we will see chassis that will be bigger in size, bigger inverter sizes that will better fit the utility market. Not only that we will come with the inverter, but actually with a full solution.

We have today our own tracker solution that is getting traction. We are having the inverter solution that again, will start to be sold and more chassis will come, and we will have over time, more capabilities within storage. This is definitely an area that we wanna focus and we want to bring as usual, a one-stop shop of a full solution that allow all of the system components to talk to each other and make the installation much more easy and cheaper to be operated.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

Great. Well, thank you so much for your time.

Ronen Faier
CFO, SolarEdge Technologies

Thank you very much for having me.

Michael Blum
Managing Director, Wells Fargo

This has been a great conversation. Great. Thanks for being here. [crosstalk]. Thank you.

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