All right. Thanks everyone for coming. Really happy to introduce Sean Sullivan, who is the CFO of SiriusXM. Sean, thanks for joining us.
Thanks, Bryan. Thanks for having me.
Why don't we just maybe start off with, you know, just talking about your 2023 guidance. It's obviously heavily impacted by the combination of macroeconomic pressures, including weak ad market, weak auto sales, as well as some company specific factors, including, you know, higher satellite CapEx and music royalties. Do you wanna maybe just start off by walking us through some of the moving pieces that are affecting the guidance for this year?
Sure. No, happy to. Maybe, maybe we start with the macro factors in terms of advertising and auto sales. You know, on the advertising, I'm sure it's been, you know, a top key topic of the conference that, you know, we exited Q4 of 2022 at a bit of a depressed rate. You saw our, you know, minus 3%. We've certainly seen that persist here in the early part of the first quarter. You know, that being said, I think we're all not anxious, anticipating, probably a better way to say it. Anticipating a bit of a recovery in the back half of the year. Certainly, if it improves sooner than that's hopefully some positive upside for us.
You know, as I think about, you know, whether it's major agencies, whether you think about eMarketer, I think everybody has tempered their expectation, at least for the first half, nine months of the year. I think a couple of bright spots are podcasting seems to be fairly stable. And you know, we've made a tremendous amount of investments in that area, so I feel optimistic about what we'll see on the podcasting side. We are a big player in the programmatic space in audio. I think as people put their money to work in a more flexible fashion, I think that will benefit us too. Overall, we're cautious here, a lot of uncertainty in the first half. I guess that is what I would say about the advertising market.
In terms of, you know, auto sales, you know, we look at all the third-party results or projections for the year in terms of SAAR. I think everybody is looking at it as a Q4 recovery. I know we had a bit of a nice pop here in January. I don't know that one month is a trend. We'll see where that goes. I mean, it's, you know, we obviously would benefit a lot from both the new and the used side. As you know, trial starts, I think we're down, you know, nine and new and used trial starts were down 9% and 7% respectively in 2022. You know, we're cautious as it relates to the first nine months of the year.
I think most of us believe that it's a fourth quarter recovery. As you know, with our trial start structures, et cetera, that's really a 2024 conversation for us in terms of what it could mean. I think those two are the macro factors that influence the, you know, our guidance in terms of self-pay net adds and some of the revenue and the financial guidance. Then there's certainly a couple of things on the cost side that we highlighted. I think we highlighted them in the third quarter. We certainly reinforced them in the year-end call. On the one hand, we've got, you know, a cash tax profile that we're, you know, finally stepping up to being a full cash taxpayer in 2023.
That's certainly unique to us in a one-time that will normalize as we think about 2024 and beyond. We have the, you know, that's what, $170 million I think we said for 2023 incremental. On the royalty side, it's kind of a two-part, two-parter. We had this pre-1972 settlement that happened in 2016 that rolled off in 2022. We're seeing a step up in royalties on the SiriusXM side in 2023. Then we've got the CRB with a 9% CPI inflator. Those two combined, you know, it's about $100 million incremental cost to us. Otherwise, you know, you think about the investments we're making in both satellite and non-satellite CapEx.
You know, satellite, I'm sure we'll talk about it's, you know, we're in a kind of in a high watermark year in 2023. As we make improvements to the product and some of the foundational things we're doing around identity management and commerce, that's all embedded in guidance too, as you think about free cash flow for the year. Feels like a lot of headwinds. I think there are a number of things in our control. I think the good news is, 2023, I think really does position us well for, you know, growth in 2024 and beyond. It's a bit of a investment bubble that hopefully, our communication has gotten people to look through and see what 2024, 2025, 2026 can be.
What needs to happen in order for the company to return to revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow growth in 2024 that's, you know, say more similar to the company's historical growth profile? I mean, is that even achievable?
Yeah. I think, as I just said, I think the investments and certainly in satellite and non-sat, I think are high water marks in 2023 based on the current roadmap.
All right.
You know, what needs to happen, and certainly the things in our control is we can continue to, you know, be more efficient on the cost side of the business. You know, I think that when I look at our competitor set, you know, we haven't really grown headcount as dramatically or grown investment in the business as dramatically as some of our other market participants. There's always room to do that. You know, I think I've been very direct about the fact that we'll keep looking at ways to be more efficient and take costs out of the business. We'll do that. You know, what needs to happen, certainly, SAAR returning to a 16 million level or thereabouts, certainly would help us.
On the used side, you know, fairly fragmented marketplace, and less information on that. You know, I think we're expecting those to be down a bit this year too in terms of trial starts. I think both new and used can help us. You know, I think we're on a path. I think we've got to absorb some of these one-time normalizing events, and we're able to, you know, bring back the growth and bring us back to where people have historically seen us generating.
Great. I know you just mentioned getting back to 16 would be part of getting back to that growth algorithm. What's the, I don't know if you can answer this, but what's the sort of level, that threshold where auto sales would need to reach in order for you to just, you know, kind of have solidly positive self-pay net adds on the OEM side?
Yeah, I mean, I think I addressed that a bit. The, you know, there's two things going on, right? Our team has done a tremendous job with penetration rates in new cars, right?
Yeah.
Hitting 83%. I think the streaming as a complement to the in-car subscription has certainly helped the value proposition for our customers. It's certainly helped us keep our churn very low. I think we need to improve the in-car experience. I think we need to improve the streaming app. I'm sure we'll talk more about the app and some of the relaunch we're talking about later this year. Certainly those, the SAR would help, you know, the in-car experience will help. I think all of that will hopefully feed into a better conversion rate with customers. You know, I think many of these things are in control, but clearly, if the ad market, you know, recovers and SAR recovers, I think that certainly will help.
Yeah. You know, in on conversion, you just mentioned, and Jennifer talked about, new car conversion being in the low 30% range this year, which is lower than what it's been historically. Can you maybe talk about, you know, what's happening with trial conversion rates and, you know, why it seems to be moderating?
Yeah. I mean, I don't think the moderation is necessarily unexpected, right? You know, we really are starting, you know, and have historically looking at yield really. It's the pen rate and the conversion rate. We're really looking at the yields because, you know, like I said, we've got 83% penetration in new cars. We're getting to a point where we're at lower MSRPs. We're at lower trim levels. We're probably penetrating in vehicles that have a different consumer that's probably more sensitive to a premium price product like SiriusXM. We focus on yield. As you know, the SAC cost has come down over the years, so we think it's a good balance. I think we're very good at managing that.
I don't think the, you know, necessarily the conversion rate pressure is a surprise. I think that given the investment we made, given the low SAC, I think we really continue to focus on the yield in driving a better experience.
Is the low 30% range, for new cars, is that a conservative estimate, or is that, you know, just based on what you're seeing now and, you know, more just a reflection of that?
Yeah, I don't know that I would characterize it conservative or not conservative. I think that, you know, in the last call, we talked about the low to mid-thirties.
Yeah.
I think that's, you know, where it's at and,
Yeah.
You know, I don't think there's any more to say.
Okay. All right. Let's see. I guess, you know, one of the things that I think some clients have asked me post the quarter is, you know, as you get the pickup in auto sales, you know, is it enough to fix that self-pay net add problem given that lower conversion outlook, given that you will also likely see vehicle churn increase as auto sales pick up? You know, or do you really need success in streaming in order to drive the subscriber growth going forward?
I mean, I guess let's start with the streaming side of it. Streaming has two benefits to the company, right? Those that get streaming as part of their in-car subscription, obviously it enhances the experience. I think we've talked about in the past where, you know, I think their listening for those subscribers effectively doubles. We think it's great in terms of engagement with the customer retention and has allowed us to keep our churn at historic lows and record lows. I think that, number one. Number two, we think that there is a big addressable market for streaming only, given our product offering and price point. You know, in 2022, you know, certainly streaming was the majority of our self-pay net adds.
You know, you know, we've tempered our, I guess, acquisition marketing in 23, as we wait for the relaunch of the app later this year. I do think that both the in-car opportunity in terms of you know, SAR returning, in terms of us improving yields and, and conversion rates as well as standalone streaming with the right product in the marketplace, I think, both contribute to a positive story.
Okay. Maybe you could talk about the full scope of the streaming product redevelopment this year. What are the goals you hope to achieve and, you know, any timing around the relaunch?
Yeah. I, you know, it's probably a little premature to talk too much about it. It's certainly something that we will talk about as the, as the months go by. It's really a Q4 relaunch, for those that have used the product, can appreciate my commentary where I believe we need to improve the features, the functionality, the recommendations, and reducing the friction. You know, I'm excited about it.
You know, again, part of the investment we're making this year that's probably less consumer-facing, but creates, I think, a lot of agility and flexibility for the company is some of the foundational work we're doing on the platform in terms of subscriber management system, in terms of identity, in terms of commerce and how you transact with us, how you put price increases through, et cetera. You know, part of the work is not just a streaming relaunch later this year, but it's some foundational work that will support not only streaming, but in-car, make 360L better and probably accrue benefits to the Pandora business as well. We're excited about it. Again, you know, it's about recommendations, it's about features, functionality, and really reducing the friction with the customer.
Streaming subscribers have become a larger, you know, albeit still, I think, a material portion of the overall base. Can you give us any sense as to how many streaming-first subscribers the company has? If you could talk a bit about the relative customer lifetime value of a streaming versus a satellite radio subscriber.
You know, as you know, we don't disclose our streaming-only subscriber. It continues to be a small portion of our 30 some odd million subscriber base. You know, as I said, it is a more important part of the self-pay net adds, as it was in 2022. Again, I think we'll get to a maturity level where we'll be more comfortable probably saying more about the number of subscribers, what the churn rate is. I think we're doing a very good job in terms of getting people into the funnel, whether those be on a direct basis, whether that be through the IAP, or whether that be through partnerships that we do. Very pleased about the addressable market.
You know, again, we've talked about the margin profile and the profitability of a streaming-only sub, right? You don't have rev share, you're paying a different royalty structure, et cetera. I think we're very comfortable with the unit economics of a streaming sub versus an in-car sub. Again, committed to it, we're gonna kind of take a more measured approach, I guess, until the relaunch later this year.
Okay. All right. I understand the company has some price increases taking effect in March. Can you talk about how you're managing the business to deliver positive ARPU growth every year through price increases as well as the other tools that you have?
And for those of you that or customers are getting your notices, I think they customers have been contacted, I think, as plans start to renew in the middle of March. We're putting through a, you know, a $1 per month price increase on most full price plans. That's happening. I think that the company has a certainly a long history of managing rate and price increases. We'll certainly have to keep an eye on, you know, the churn rate. You know, I think we do a good job there. We will see, you know, the benefit of that in 2023 in terms of those price increases.
We'll certainly manage the, you know, promotional side or discount side as a normal customer will look to trade. I think those, you know, if we have a history of doing that, what, every couple of years, I think our input costs, as we talked about at the beginning of this, in terms of royalties, et cetera, I think it's warranted. I think we've got a great value proposition both in and out of the car. We'll manage that. I think the ARPU growth, we have a long history of that too. I don't know that we'll see the same level of growth that we have seen in ARPU. I think 2022 was probably a fairly strong, maybe a high watermark in terms of growth in ARPU for the company.
I wouldn't expect that. Certainly, the ad market improving would help and be a positive lever there too.
Can you talk about, or maybe give an update on where 360L is today in terms of, you know, the installed base and current installation rates? Any, you know, any color around that?
Yeah. you know, those aren't familiar, 360L is our satellite and IP, you know, module in the car. I think today there are roughly 7 million 360L-enabled cars on the road. A small number of the total enabled base. you know, 23%, if I have my facts right, of the SiriusXM-enabled cars in 2022 were 360L.
Okay.
As we look into 2023, my hope is that we're in the mid-30% range and exiting at something higher than that at the end of 2023, in terms of every new SiriusXM-enabled car having 360L. You know, we've got, I think, 20 OEMs. We've announced new deals with, you know, Nissan, Land Rover, Jaguar, Lamborghini, et cetera. We're getting there. You know, I think that, you know, it's starting to, you know, be the plan of record in many of these OEMs.
Yeah. What kind of improvements are you seeing with 360L? Do you see much of a difference between churn, between 360L and non-360L, as well as ARPU?
Yeah, we've seen, I mean, again, we are seeing benefits. You know, again, given the propensity or the size of 360L versus non-360L, I think it's hard to see it coming through in the overall numbers. You know, I think that the For You recommendations or people that use the features and functionality of 360L For You, there are Pandora Artist Stations in the car, I think we're seeing better engagement. We're seeing more usage of on-demand. We're seeing, you know, better conversion rates and better retention. I think the promise of 360L is still valid and still a big initiative of ours.
You know, I think that as we continue down this path of a more distributed 360L in the, in the enabled fleet, and, you know, we'll have better data and better ability to really improve the in-car experience, using that.
I know you already talked a bit about the ad market. I guess I wanted to ask something a little more specific around that. We've heard a couple other companies talk about, you know, starting to see some green shoots. Not all of them are saying that. I was just curious if you were seeing any signs of improvement or if it's more or less a continuation of what, you know, you saw in December or just, you know, any sort of more granular comment there that'd be relevant.
Yeah. I don't know that I have any more granular. I think that, you know, from my perspective, it's the market is in line with our expectations for that, whatever that's worth. I don't think it's getting any worse than we anticipated. I think, again, we've got a scaled, ad platform, across obviously Pandora, the podcasting satellite, you know, the satellite side of the business. There are certain categories that are up, there are certain categories that are down. As I said earlier, I think podcasting continues to be, you know, at least a bright spot for us in terms of the, not only the, ad representation deals we've done and some of the inventory we've added.
I think, you know, with the right ad tech, I'm optimistic about the improved monetization of the podcast, and I think the demand is still there. You know, again, people are waiting and placing their money closer to, you know, air, so to speak, right?
Right. Yeah.
That hasn't changed. That was something that we saw at the end of 2022. With our multi-platform solution, with our podcasts, with programmatic, I think that we're in a good position at least to take our share of the market.
Yeah. What's happening broadly with the SiriusXM content offering? Are there areas where you're leaning in and expanding? Any areas where you might be pulling back at all?
I don't think we're pulling back. I, you know, as I think about the content offering, I think it's, you know, it feels almost unmatched. I mean, we've got an incredible library of live curated, not only music, but news, talk, sports. You know, sports in particular, I think that is a real strong niche for us. You know, I don't think we're pulling back. I think it's really more about how do we get the customer to know what we have, to discover what we have. I mean, we've certainly got incredible live events, incredible tent pole events, whether through, you know, the Small Stage Series and some of the things we're doing to really drive usage in the streaming app, as well as in the car.
I think we've got, again, I think we've got an unmatched content portfolio. I think it's how do we present it and how do we get the ability for consumers to discover it and make the recommendations. No, I don't think we're pulling back. I think we feel great about what we have across the spectrum.
Yeah. As you're renewing contracts with the sports leagues, what are the general trends you're seeing? You know, rights cost, step ups, anything like they are on TV and streaming? I mean, just any kind of color, broadly speaking.
Yeah, I won't speak for the TV and streaming people, but we're certainly not seeing those type of increases.
Okay.
You know, maybe part of that's a function of the competitive marketplace we operate in versus what they're dealing with. You know, we certainly have seen increases in some cases. I think in some of the sports leagues, and I think at the end of the day, we've made good trades where we've got either exclusivity or we've got incremental content offering or something. I think that, generally speaking, we've been able to moderate the increase, but at the same time, get incremental rights, and content that we didn't have historically.
Should we expect programming costs in the SiriusXM segment to continue to grow at this high single digit rate in 2024, similar to the past couple of years? you know, what have been the largest drivers maybe of that growth in recent years, and any color on whether that continues?
Yeah. No, I mean, I think it's helpful to break down the fact that if you exclude music royalties and you exclude the rev share that we have, you know, we're not talking about a huge pot of money, right?
Yeah.
We're a little north of half a billion dollars, I think. When you talk about the rate of increase, even though the percentage may be large, I don't, you know, again, I don't think in absolute dollars it's meaningful. I do believe firmly that we are a content company that I think to enable us to continue to deliver a differentiated, premium product, I do think we need to invest incrementally, in these areas and non-music for sure.
Right.
I think we'll do that in a disciplined fashion. you know, I wouldn't get too hung up, frankly, on the % increase. I think the absolute dollars are probably a more relevant conversation.
Yeah. Okay. The satellite build cycle, you know, as you mentioned, is the driver, the elevated CapEx in 2023, which, you know, goes through, I think, 2027. Once you complete it, you know, how long will it be before you need to invest again in building satellites?
I think a long time. Again, for everybody's benefit, we've got four satellites being built now. I think they launch from 2024 through 2027 or thereabouts. I guess when we're done with that cycle and launch, we're probably looking a decade out, probably before we're there. You know, when you get to 2027 or thereabouts, I mean, we're effectively in a near zero state in terms of capital satellite CapEx.
Yeah. Interesting. You could, I mean, when you think about it another 10 or 12 years later, I mean, you'll have 360L.
Right.
When it's fully penetrated.
Yeah.
So.
Penetrated, you know, who knows what the, you know, wireless costs will be at that point in time. I assume they'll continue to come down, so.
Yeah. Interesting. Over the past several years, you've repurchased a significant number of shares and paid dividends while keeping leverage in the low 3x range. Just given the more challenged outlook this year, you know, how should we think about share repurchases and the outlook for the leverage ratio going forward?
You know, No new update on the leverage ratio. I think low to mid threes is a prudent place for this company to be given the market environment, given some of the uncertainty in ad sales and auto that we've talked at length about today. Very comfortable at the 3.5x where we exited 2022. you know, we've got the $400 million recurring dividend or thereabout. The rest is I guess, flexible, right? you know, we've done a special dividend in the past. We've got the capacity to do more.
I think we're gonna take a cautious approach to the market in the first half of the year, given, you know, the cadence and some of the impacts to our business. You know, again, I can't really say whether how active we are in the market in terms of share repurchases. I guess, wait till the Q1 call, and we can talk more about it. I think the beauty is we've got a great balance sheet. We got incredible capacity and flexibility to pull the levers, even with some of the, you know, muted guidance in terms of leverage capacity against the EBITDA guide. I'm pleased with where we're at.
Okay. Is there anything out there that might be of interest from an M&A perspective, not that you would name a specific target, but I mean in terms of areas that could be of interest to you?
You know, I think the right thing to say is we look at everything or we're aware of everything that may advance our strategic roadmap and plan. You know, I think that's what we outlined today between 360L, between the streaming app relaunch, some of the commerce and identity replatforming that we're doing this year. You know, we're in the podcasting space with, I guess, being the leader of audio, it's hard not to be there. I think, you know, and again, we've taken a ad sales monetization approach on podcasting rather than bringing it behind the paywall, so to speak.
I think there's a ton of organic opportunities for us to focus on, execute on, provide you the milestones and the roadmap to success that get us back to the growth path in 2024 and beyond. Again, never say never, but I think we've got a lot to focus and execute on organically.
I think the acquisitions that you've done over the past, you know, call it five years have been mainly in the streaming space and podcasting. Do you think that the company is fairly complete in those areas? Not to say that you have to buy something, but are there capabilities that you still even wanna build or, you know, organically?
You know, I think we've talked about it a few times. I think we've hired a new head of product in tech. We've added a tremendous number of resources to support that group, and a lot of that is bringing on new capabilities and prior experiences that we think will quickly advance our product. And again, I know it seems like, you know, the end of the year is a long time, but I think we'll be pleased with the success of that. I don't think we need to acquire something to onboard the capability. I think from what we've acquired in Pandora, from what we've hired with the tremendous amount of resources within the product and tech group, I think we have the capability.
I think the real focus now is on executing against the roadmap.
Yeah. Okay. All right. Great. We could go to audience Q&A if anyone has any questions they'd like to ask. No? I guess we're, I guess I can end it early.
We'll stop then.
All right. Thanks, Sean.
All right, Bryan.
Appreciate it.
Appreciate it. Thank you so much.