T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
NASDAQ: TMUS · Real-Time Price · USD
182.75
-7.05 (-3.71%)
At close: Apr 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
183.55
+0.80 (0.44%)
After-hours: Apr 27, 2026, 7:57 PM EDT
← View all transcripts

51st Annual J.P. Morgan’s Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference 2023

May 22, 2023

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Hi. I want to welcome you to JP Morgan's 51st annual TMT Conference. My name is Phil Cusick. I follow the communications and media space here. Welcome Mike Sievert, CEO of T-Mobile since 2020. Thanks for joining us.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Thanks, Phil.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

This is, your tenth-year anniversary and maybe a month since going public.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yeah, that's right.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

I'm very excited about it.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

May first of 2013 we went public.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

I remember it well. I was thinking about how to start this. At the ti, you were the insurgent in the industry, and now how do you think about the company overall today versus that insurgent 12% market share that you started with?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, I think we were a pretty responsible insurgent. I'll preface that because I'll say I think we're still the insurgent, you know? Our company has a culture that is hard to replicate, where every single one of us wakes up every morning hungry, unsatisfied, hungry. We always used to talk about years ago when we were much smaller, that one day we would be as big as kinda the old telecoms, but we can never become them. I say that not to suggest that we don't understand our role as stewards of this industry. I hope we talk about that. I think this is a healthy, vibrant industry. I believe that we still have tons of room to run. The math backs me up on that. We're majorly under-penetrated with major segments.

Many of you know our story in that area, so we're going after it with a tenacity and a hunger that matches anything we've done over the last 10 years.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

As you think about going from, you know, again, like the... I think of T-Mobile as like the John Legere scrappy hair on fire maverick to today you're a responsible insurgent with 30% market share. How does that change how you run the business?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Like I said, I think we've always been reasonably responsible as an insurgent. We just like to have a rhetoric that has a bombast that you have to see through to understand that what we're about is creating value. That was true then, and it's true now. You know, so in, in a sense, not a lot has changed. You know, you look at our balance sheet and our asset portfolio allows us to maintain a value superiority versus AT&T and Verizon. It has for a decade. We haven't... We intend to defend that because our balance sheet and our assets allow and our capital efficiency allow us to do that. We continue to be the value player.

What's interesting and what has changed as we now complete our merger is that we are now also the network leader, and that opens up a whole new TAM for us. We're gonna defend that value proposition. We are the value leader, and we will be the value leader to a similar margin of, through, as we have throughout our history. Now we're winning the he arts and minds of people who buy in this category based on network, and that's really powerful and important.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Okay. I keep coming back to this, but there's this hysteria around competition today, as if the industry hasn't been competitive for the last 30 years. What do you see in the offers that are out there that is somewhat different, or do you see anything that's sort of destructive to the long-term value of the industry?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

I mean, it's interesting. You were talking about our past. I have done 40 earnings calls or 42 earnings calls for T-Mobile, and I've gotten this question with varying levels of kind of abject fear on every single one of those. You know what I mean? You go back to 2013 and 2014, people were asking if we were burning the place down. Look, if you look at this industry today, cash flows in the industry and cash flows as a percent of service revenue are double what they were in 2014. This industry is vibrant and healthier than ever, and yet the consumer is also winning. The customer is getting 4x more data than just four years ago on our most popular plans. You know, customers on our most cost-effective plans are paying 4x less.

They're paying a quarter of what they were before our merger per gigabyte. The customer is winning, but so are we, and so is the industry. You know, you look at the industry's growing service revenues at 5%. The industry is producing more cash flow, double what it was a decade ago, and yet every single quarter I get questions about, "Is this latest thing happening in the industry, you know, value destroying?" If you really look at our role as an insurgent, as you put it, over the decade, it's been reasonably consistent, and it has led to an industry that today is productive and vibrant.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

What drives, the continued revenue growth in this industry?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, for us, there's a number of things. One, you know, I'll talk about us, and I'll talk about the industry. For us, it's share taking. We continue to have a methodical march to build market share where we continue to be very under-penetrated. We have years of room to run on this because we're methodical about it. We're not trying to grab it all this year. We're trying to methodically get after it. We talked about in our 2021 Analyst Day that we would double our market share in enterprise and government to 20%. We're clipping that away. This last quarter, we outperformed Verizon on phone net adds, on overall postpaid nets, and on churn in the business sector.

We talked about smaller markets in rural areas, about 40% of the country, where, you know, we had a share in the low teens. It's now 16.5% on its way to 20% in our 2025 planning horizon. By the way, all these metrics are just kinda what you get in our 2025 planning horizon from Analyst Day. There's no reason to believe it stops there. The cash production that can flow from all those things continues to go. Right now, what's interesting about our business is that we're leading the industry on both top line and bottom line growth. That's hard to do simultaneously. We're leading on service revenues, 3%, postpaid service revenues, 6%, both market leading. Cash flow, 46% year-over-year growth in Q1, but guiding to 75% year-over-year cash flow on the year.

Obviously, industry best. Top and bottom line. It's because we're now arriving at the run rate business following our merger. That's kind of the T-Mobile story. Overall, for the business, as an industry, this industry is delivering the dividends on 5G that we promised. You know, revenues and cash flows are vibrant in the industry because we made these investments. At T-Mobile, we take a lot of credit for that because we obviously spurred it all on by having our merger get completed and by chasing mid-band spectrum the way we did in building this network. That caused everybody else to do what they're doing. What you have is a vibrant, growing, profitable industry where both the industry and consumers are winning. You know, that's what we see. We don't see anything in the last quarter or two that changes that.

For us, Q2, I mean, looking at we're in the middle of Q2, it looks like it'll round trip last year very nicely. We should have postpaid phone nets at or above last year's. The dynamic's very healthy overall.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yeah. It's interesting because we do get this very focused question on postpaid. Postpaid in the industry, postpaid for you. I think part of that is because these industry investors in the space are trained that revenue per user does not go up. People generally don't pay more. Yet we're seeing some consistent price increases from AT&T, Verizon, and we could argue from yourselves over the last year, depending on where people start. Do you think that that's a inflation driven, or is it just the value that's coming into the industry?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

It's absolutely the value, that's kinda what I was talking about, you see a 5G dividend coming into the industry. You know, we Our most popular plans at T-Mobile, Magenta MAX and the new Go5G Plus plan, also happen to be our higher-end plans. Customers are self-selecting up based on the 5G network. Then once they're there, they're using four times more data than what they were using on our most popular plans four years ago. Four times more data. So, you know, that's fantastic for us because you see ARPUs, you know, last year rose. ARPA's rising this year in our guidance. You know, you see what AT&T and Verizon are doing in terms of trying to capture value from 5G as well.

Overall, it looks productive for the industry, but we shouldn't forget, it's also productive for the consumer.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yeah. It's nice that you say that, postpaid adds will be better year-over-year in the second quarter. That's helpful. I think there's been a lot of fear about what those numbers are gonna look like. As Cable has taken a lot more share of those headline postpaid numbers, I've been amused when you say things like those are... I can't remember what was the word. Not necessarily the highest quality or low-

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Low calorie.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Low calorie is the word. You have been accused of things like that in the past as well. How do you look at their growth and say low calorie when you have been accused of the same thing?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Sure.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

You've come through and they've continued and stuck around for a long time.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, what you see with us is, you know, an ARPU that rose over the last year, ARPA that's rising. You see churn falling. You see, you know, fundamental dynamics that are strong. You know, I'm not that focused on Cable, but one of the reasons is that the telemetry tells us that what's happening there isn't really affecting us. For the last four quarters in a row, our porting has actually stayed consistent or slightly improved versus Cable. You've seen this sort of change in their overall trajectory without seeing a change in porting ratios with us. In fact, it's improved over the last four quarters, each of the last four quarters versus year-ago periods. You kinda look at that and say, "Well, what's really happening over there?

Is it affecting us and our business model deeply? That informs how we respond to it. The reason I said what I said last quarter wasn't to cast aspersions. I mean, their model may be doing things that are important for their business and their success. I was just trying to point out it's not affecting ours. You know, it's not destroying value in this sector because it's not really penetrating into the kinds of customers that are now informing our value creation. I mean, look at who's really informing T-Mobile's value creation right now. Postpaid consumer families with prime credit. I mean, that's fascinating, by the way, if you think about our history at Sprint and T-Mobile. That's not who we were fighting for five years ago.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

No.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Just a couple stats there. Last quarter, we again achieved an all-time high in our prime credit base. We outperformed AT&T and Verizon on bad debt, both nominally and as a percentage of revenues. Think about that. I'm not talking about year-over-year performance. I'm saying that T-Mobile customers pay their bills at a superior rate to AT&T or Verizon customers overall, again this quarter. That shows you who we're attracting, and it kinda speaks to your first question as to how do we view under-penetrated segments. We got into the top 100 markets as a market leader by being a value player. Tens of millions of people during that period never gave us a real look because they wanted the network leader. Now they're giving us a real look by virtue of those stats that I just shared.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yep. You know, you mentioned being a responsible incumbent. Sorry, responsible insurgent, not an incumbent.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

You just coined a phrase.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Responsible insurgent.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Right. You recently launched an Un-carrier called Phone Freedom, which to me is remarkably like Un-carrier 4.0, which when launched eight years ago was considered to be the end of the world in postpaid. What's different about this in terms of allowing customers to come out of AT&T and Verizon this time?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yeah, you know, Contract Freedom. That was Un-carrier 4.0. We launched at the beginning of 2014. It's one of those time periods that I was talking about where, you know, investors were panicked that we were destroying the margins of this industry. It's kinda one of the reasons I reminded everybody that cash flow margins are, you know, and cash flows are double what they were in 2014 in this industry. Not at T-Mobile, but in the industry. You have to kinda look beyond the headlines. I'll tell you this, Un-carrier 4.0 in 2014 was one of the most successful things we ever did. Because it showed people you don't have to be trapped. Look, right now, the data tells me millions of customers feel trapped.

You know, just look at the stats, I talked about these on the launch day for Phone Freedom, our Un-carrier move. I said that, and I'll give them a lot of credit, AT&T had the lowest postpaid phone churn in Q1. They beat us and Verizon. That, you know, and that, of course, gnaws at every T-Mobile person because I told you our culture and our attitude. Yet, data from one of the most popular survey companies that we all look at, not from T-Mobile, says that AT&T customers have the highest propensity to churn. Not a little higher. 50% more propensity to churn, more desire to churn than Verizon or T-Mobile customers while having the lowest churn. Listen, that tells you one thing. That tells me one thing. They feel trapped. They're trapped.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Well, they spend a lot of money to get their customers on new handsets.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

They're locked into these three-year contracts whether they wanna be or not. What Phone Freedom is about is showing them that they don't have to be trapped. We'll take that phone. Don't worry about it. We got you. You know, at T-Mobile, you'll be in a two-year arrangement and, you know, you can leave when you want, and we'll even send you back if you want. Those kinds of things that are kinda hallmarks of one of our previous success stories from years ago when the story was about service contracts. Those same feelings are there today at a higher level than ever before, and we have to solve those pain points when we see them.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

I just wanna be specific. That option's been there. You would've bought me out of my Verizon contract before you announced that a month ago, too.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, there's a variety of things that we did with Phone Freedom. One was to make sure that people know that not only will we welcome you to T-Mobile and give you our best deal, the same deal we would right now for a new customer as an existing customer, but we'll promise we'll do that in the future.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Okay.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

AT&T doesn't do that. Right now, they have a track record of treating existing customers the same as new customers, but it's not a promise that they make, and so we're making that on Go5G Plus. We're also promising that we will take your locked phone at AT&T, and that's new with Phone Freedom. That phone that may be still locked, you don't have to go through the hassle of trying to convince them, like begging them through 611 to unlock it for you, and then, you know, you have to pay it off. You have to take the money from us and pay it off and it takes some days. A lot of people get lost. It's not worth a weekend of their life, and so they don't. They're afraid. They don't know how to do it.

We'll just take it. We will deal with all that, don't worry. We will take your locked phone, we will get you a brand-new one, you will only be committed for the two years on that phone. It's a, you know, it's a real differentiator and, of course, you know, not surprisingly, customers love it.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

I didn't know that part. That's taken a weekend of my life in the past. That's interesting. On that launch day, you also launched Go5G plans, which I consider sort of a step, a little bit of a step above Magenta. How has the response been and the uptake on those?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yeah, it's been great. you know, we remain above 60% run rate. Go5G Plus.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

What does that mean, above 60%?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

We look at people coming to T-Mobile in the new flow, whether they're self-selecting at Magenta MAX or higher.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Okay.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Now Go5G Plus tends to be about $5 higher at different points. That's the primary offer that they're being presented with. You can still get Magenta MAX, but Go5G Plus is the most popular one now. You take them in sum, and it remains above 60%. What that means is we've successfully launched a new set of offers with more value packed in, an opportunity to self-select up the rate card, and it's working. You know, it's really about us continuing to offer choices. It's a different strategy than our competitors in terms of we're not executing price increases on the base, but it is...

It's a similar concept, which is this network supports more usage, and it supports more features, and it supports more primacy in your in the life of your connectivity. There's opportunities to buy up and take advantage of all that. It's one of the ways that 5G is proving to have the dividends that we promised.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Netflix is still included.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Absolutely.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Unlike some of your peers who are taking those things away. Do you think there's for customers in having a, like, an à la carte menu rather than a pre-selected bundle?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

I don't think it's a bad idea. I mean, you know, if Verizon had slashed their prices, when they took out all those goodies and then allowed you to pay to buy the goodies back, that would've made more rational sense, I think, to consumers. Instead, they kind of just sorta took them out, didn't reduce the prices, and said, "Look, we're giving you choice now." Consumers probably see through that, you know? They're hoping consumers won't see through that, but we'll see.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yeah, we'll see. You know, so far in 5G, there haven't been a lot of applications that really take advantage of that. We've got fixed wireless, which has been a great use of the capacity. We haven't seen applications that are really driving people to, you know, super fast speeds and super low latency. What do you see as you tour the Apple skunkworks and the Samsung skunkworks that gets you excited?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yeah. Well let me, let me first, like, slightly disagree with the premise, just for the fun of it. If you go back to some of the things I said, the typical Magenta MAX user is using four times more data. They're using more gaming. They're using more video. They're using more social media. They're engaging in higher kinda bitrate things in all of those activities. That's not, like, 40%. That's four times. It's not in across a decade. It's across the last three years or four years. It's profound. It's all driven by a 5G network that allows that. It's causing them to run up our rate card, our most popular plan now being our most expensive plan. It's great for them.

It's great for us. Customers on our lowest price plans are getting 4x more data per dollar they spend than they were just three or four years ago. These are 5G dividends for them and for us. You know, I was saying this two or three years ago, and people weren't listening. The smartphone is the killer app of the 5G era. You know, our customers are experiencing data speeds that are 10x faster than they were before the merger, and they're using that by buying up our rate card, having wireless become more important in their life, and using more data. That solidifies their relationship with us in some very significant ways. That's one thing. Secondly, you mentioned it. Fixed wireless is a fantastic phenomenon, and we're still in the early innings of it.

I love the fact that a lot of people are now believing that their best strategy is to cast aspersions on fixed wireless and sort of try to downplay it. It says we've got their attention. I also will remind everybody that we're not. This particular model on fixed wireless, you know, we will take it into high single-digit penetration, and we don't have illusions that it's gonna take over half the market. For the market we're trying to serve, it's a highly profitable, accretive, incremental business with little to no capital allocated, so it's a beautiful thing. Finally, to your question. Yes, we are seeing cool things. I think actually in the early days, those things will not be dramatically more consumptive than smartphones, but they have the potential to be.

Things like wearables, interactive devices, certain 5G models also require the movement of lots of data back and forth. Not so much the generative AI kind of text, most of that processing is in the cloud, but the 5G stuff or the AI stuff you're seeing around video and around photos is much more consumptive. There's lots of stuff sort of in the labs that's hitting, but I wouldn't expect something over the next 12 months to come out and say, "Aha, there it is.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

This is the one.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

There it is, the 5G answer we've all been waiting for." It's right in front of your face right now.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Okay. Interesting. Sorry. As you think about those things that you can see coming, are they really sort of niche products over the next few years?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, a lot of times what happens is things come out in their niche in the first year or two.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

You know, they, then they start to take off. My personal view is that there's a lot of room for innovation in this market. The smartphone is now, you know, a 15-year-old idea. AI is showing us we have... there's a better way to interact with our technology and, you know, things are gonna start moving in this industry, and I think it's, you know, it's gonna be very positive. At the same time, big discontinuous things like AI are usually simultaneously going to be more earth-moving than most people realize and affect things differently than most people realize and not live up to the hype in the next 24 months.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Right. We've seen this. Switch gears a little bit, and I think as we go back to where we started, which is the competition in the industry, one thing that I have been surprised by, and you and I talked about this a year ago, was that in your legacy markets, the markets where you have rounding maybe to 40% penetration, or 40% market share, you're still growing subscribers. Just help us think about how that is being driven and how you're defending those very high penetration markets against competitors.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

In the top 50 markets, we're the leader. In the top 100 markets, we're one of the leaders. It's always been a source of strength for us. We got there by being a value player. Today, we're growing because we're winning with prime credit network seekers. That's just a new phenomenon for us over the last couple of years. It was an aspiration we had, and most people didn't believe we could grow. They were asking us if we would be able to defend our castle there. We're growing and, you know, it should be obvious why. Like I said a minute ago, tens of millions of people never really gave us a good look in the big cities. They were worried there would be a trade-off. These are the people who don't buy on value, they buy on network.

They want the best network. Increasingly, we're finding ways to convince them that's us. It is us mathematically, but we need to convince them, and that's starting to take root. We're growing, and you see it in those stats that I talked about, you know, with our prime base being at an all-time high, as evidenced by our bad debt rates being low and lower than our competitors, both nominally and as a percent of revenue. Those are signs that it's not that we're starting to sort of win a few people, but overall, the quality of our base is improving and is actually better than our competitors, and that gives us room to run in those top 100 markets.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Well, let's talk about sticking with the top 100, but the enterprise space has always been a source of strength for AT&T and Verizon. Can you talk about where your sort of strengths are as you enter that space, whether you're starting SMB and sort of moving upward? Are there particular industries that you're targeting and why?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

We've been reasonably strong on run rate in SMB for a while. The real focus, as we talked about in our business plan, with the market two years ago, is enterprise and government. Our aspiration was to move north of 20% within the planning horizon, 2025, and that's very much on track. Big enterprises want a reliable provider with innovative technology, will solve their problems. They don't want risks. They want solutions that are easy to manage. In some of those areas, we've been coming from behind, including even the solutions on how to manage your relationship with us and so forth. As the pieces in our business plan hit, we're seeing the business respond, and that's really gratifying. As I talked about in Q1, we outpace Verizon on business nets.

We outpace them on business phone nets. We outpace them on churn. You know, these are... I'm not trying to disparage them, I'm just saying we have always held them as this great benchmark, and we, you know, we can't be a leader unless we chase them, and we're a competitive company, so we like to go do that. So our team's got a little spring in their step, you know, that we're seeing validation from customers. This could be a leading indicator for top 100 markets. Because what happens is businesses don't go on reputation. You know, they check out 100 phones for some weeks and compare side to side, and then they come back and make a decision. That does two things.

One, it makes sure that we're winning on network, which I think then does give you a little bit of a headlight into how we will win prime network seekers on the consumer side. Also it protects the value of that customer account. You know, we are not, by and large, winning based on slashing prices the most. You know, we're winning because they want the best network. We have value. You know, we're going to come in with a great value, but enterprises want the best network for their customers. With the speed and capacity of this 5G network being so far ahead of AT&T and Verizon and being outlooked to be so far ahead of them for years to come, we're winning business, and we're winning them at accretive values that allows us to make money.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

I thought the AAA win was particularly instructive out of the middle of nowhere. That thing better work.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yeah.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

People will notice.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Absolutely.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Well, let's talk about the middle of... well, middle of nowhere, maybe. Those smaller and rural markets where you've been building market share. You and I started talking about this again maybe 10 years ago, and it was a future plan. Where are we in that process now in terms of the You talk about a intent to or license to fight, license to win?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yes.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Something like that.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

License to play.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

License to play, license to win.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yes. License to play, license to win. Exactly. What we do, with the 775 markets that make up 40% of the U.S., where when we started this journey in 2021, we had a low double-digit market share. I mean, you think about this, you know, we're a scaled competitor, number two in customers in the country, and in 40% of the country we have a low double-digit market share, like not even teens two years ago. Today, it's 16.5%, we're on our way to the 20% we promised in 2025. It doesn't stop there, we don't think. What we did with the 775 markets is we classed them all based on our relative network competitiveness.

A few years ago, most of them were not licensed to play. We just really weren't competitive there. Now we are. Then you get licensed to win, where you get even more of the homes passed with two-wall indoor coverage, strong signal, and that's when you start to bring in your marketing, your distribution, your whole formula for winning. What we find is in the 2/3 of the markets where we're fully competing licensed to play or above, our SOGAs are, you know, fantastic, you know, well into the mid-30s. We're winning market share. We're making our way towards that 20%, and everything's on track. We're doing it in a really value accretive way for our company. We're not trying to go there and change the competitive dynamic around price.

We're trying to go there and change the competitive dynamic around quality, you know, maintaining that price leadership we've always had.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

As we see capital spending come down in the next couple of years or come down this year and how should we think about the pace of expansion into those rural areas? Can that accelerate as you have more money that's not being used for the integration, or is this just a steady progress?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Steady progress. By that I mean, you know, the network is now largely built. From here we go grab pockets of opportunity. That's a, that's a great place to be. You know, we will end 2023, this year, with 300 million people reached by our Ultra Capacity 5G network. An average of 200 megahertz of 5G dedicated to those 300 million PoPs. No one is talking about doing anything like that even two years from now. We remain more than two years ahead of our competitors, and the key place where that difference has landed this year is smaller markets in rural areas, because we hit the big cities a couple years back.

You know, with each passing quarter, you see a step change in our ability to compete in smaller markets in rural areas, but that's kinda in the run rate. That's, you know, this $9 billion-$10 billion capital picture for us feels like a run rate number that allows us to not only lead now, but to stay ahead for years to come in the 5G race.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Does fixed wireless sort of help you go into those new smaller markets as well?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Absolutely. You know, there's very much a land and expand thing happening. Some customers are discovering our brand through fixed wireless, which is a wonderful new thing that was. You know, we didn't have that on our way up in the top 50 markets as a tool. In fact, at this last quarter, 40% of our fixed wireless net additions, or gross additions I should say, came from smaller markets in rural areas. You know, it just kinda shows what's happening there.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

What's the level of bundling you see in those fixed wireless customers versus mobile? Are they pretty much all the same customer base?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

No, it's across the board. you know, for us, we're happy to serve them either way. If they're T-Mobile customers and they're adding to the relationship, that's fantastic for ARPA. If they are competitive customers and they're being introduced to T-Mobile through fixed wireless, also great because it allows us to show them how strong the signal is in their own neighborhood. Of course, it's just a matter of time then before they at least consider us for the family. you know, to us, it's a great strategy either way.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Okay. Let's sort of finish up with the cash flow and balance sheet. The cash flow of the company right now being used to buy back stock. How do you think about this long term? Are there other things that you would like to do with this cash?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, our job is to create a business model in this planning period through 2025 that, as we talked about a couple years ago when we laid out these aspirations, has the ability from cash flow and debt capacity to support up to $60 billion in buybacks through 2025. We believe that model is very much on track. You can see it in our execution. We've been running at a good pace on buybacks, but that's because we think our stock is a relative value right now. You know, our board has been very supportive of moving as quickly as our debt capacity allows because we believe strongly in this cash flow story. I mean, you think about how it doesn't stop.

You know, we're growing at 75% cash flow growth year-over-year this year because we're now achieving the post-merger run rate promise of this business. It steps up again next year. In 2025, we talked about an aspiration of $16 billion-$18 billion and then beyond. It continues to grow. Of course, you know, that opens up lots of optionality to us as a board as to what to do with that cash. Right now, in the very near term, you know, to us, it looked like the best opportunity is simply to take a big piece of that value and return it to shareholders who've been with us on this ride for over a decade and, you know, have believed in our story, you know, that's what we're embarked upon.

Right now we've approved this $14 billion of purchases, and we're executing against it. You know, we will weigh the whole rest of the picture like you would expect a board to do, but you understand our policy.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

What is the leverage policy of the company? Like, where do you wanna have that balance sheet?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Mid-twos.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Mid-twos.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Yeah. You know, to us, that feels like a great responsible place to be. Of course, you can always look at that as the interest rate environment changes, et cetera, but that feels like a great place to be. You know, we're a little above mid-twos right now, but as you know, the EBITDA capacity is rapidly growing. You know, we were 9% this year on EBITDA. We see a strong year in 2024, as EBITDA continues to grow, not only do we get more debt capacity, but the leverage begins to take care of itself.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

I think most of the things we've talked about today, people in this room understand, and yet the stock has been stuck in the, let's call it $135-$150 range for quite a while. Investors in this room are frustrated. Are you frustrated with that? Or are you sort of happy to roll the stock in and be buying it while it's a reasonable value?

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

Well, I mean, we're a buyer.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Yeah.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

I mean, it's an interesting thing. I mean, of course, we're happy to be buying it at these prices and, but on the other hand, no. I mean, over the long haul, our job here is to create value, and that's what's gonna happen, in my opinion. You know, we don't get too hung up on any particular week or any particular quarter. You know, you look at the price today, okay. You know, that's obviously not where I think a lot of investors want it to be. Three weeks ago, it was at $150. I mean, you know, I don't get too hung up on that.

What I'm focused on is creating a business with rapidly expanding cash flow, with the superior cash flow per revenue dollar in the industry, which is already true in 2023, then continues to expand from there. If we have a company with the best top-line growth and with the best cash flow growth and the superior cash returns per revenue dollar and a model, you know, and a management team with a track record that you can rely on, you know, the rest kind of will take care of itself over time. There are certain bumps that you see along the way that have nothing to do with us or our performance. You can't get too hung up about that.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

t's a good place to leave it. Mike, thanks very much.

Mike Sievert
CEO, T-Mobile US

All right.

Phil Cusick
Managing Director, Head of US Communications and Media Research, JPMorgan

Thanks, everybody.

Powered by