Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings earnings conference call for the third quarter 2026. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Following the initial remarks from management, we will open the lines for questions. At that time, if you would like to ask a question, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. In order to get to as many questions as possible, we kindly ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.
This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed, or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line. I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements which represent the company's current expectations, which are based upon information currently available to the company.
A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q, and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors. Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call, and historical operational metrics will include pandemic years of 2020 to 2022.
Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures at the end of our earnings release. Joining us today to discuss our results here in Houston and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. We also have other members of the executive team on the line available for Q&A. I would like to put the call over to Scott.
Thanks, Kristina, and thank you all for joining us on the call today. It has been an eventful year, but it is once again given us the opportunity to demonstrate how de-commoditizing and becoming a true brand loyal airline was a structural change for United that gives us resilience in volatile times, and I expect it will lead to strong results in a normalized environment.
We have built an airline that our employees are proud of, and they are delivering and have made United the leading airline around the globe. Before I start, I want to congratulate Boeing on the certification of the MAX 10. It is a fantastic aircraft, and we look forward to taking our first delivery next year.
On this call, we will talk a lot about 2026 and the current environment, but I want to take a couple of minutes to focus on 2027 and specifically answer the question: What will it take for us to reach our goal of double-digit pre-tax margins next year? We live and breathe no excuses, and the one thing you will never hear us say or use as a planning excuse is, "If it were not for fuel." Instead, we are planning for and actually expect fuel to remain elevated for all of 2027.
It also appears that industry capacity will accelerate. Obviously, either of those things could change and get us to double-digit pre-tax margins, but we are not counting on it. So what would it take to get there in a higher fuel and capacity environment? To be blunt, even though we are outperforming, the traditional way of looking at it would be hard.
Though in fairness, I have been pleasantly surprised at the industry's ability this year to raise yields and pass through much of the increase in fuel prices. So it is possible that airlines will continue to focus on yields at the expense of load factor, and that alone could get us to double-digit margins next year. But we are not going to assume that will happen.
You have heard me say in the past that hope is not a strategy. Instead, we are focused on things we can control, and those are the big investments we have made over the past several years in products, service, and technology. And one of those things is Starlink, a new and truly differentiating RASM tailwind in 2027. Today, about half of United departures are on Starlink-equipped aircraft, but we offer more Starlink flights than the entire U.S. airline industry combined.
We currently expect to reach 61% of departures by the end of 2026, 87% by June 1st, and available fleet-wide by the end of 2027. Importantly, we are also seeing evidence that Starlink is a motivating factor for customers to choose which airline they fly.
That is why we launched a new tracker so people can check if their flight has it and can follow along as we outfit our fleet. It is hard to get brand loyal customers to switch airlines, and while it is mostly anecdotal, we are seeing two important things happen. One, customers who are brand loyal to other airlines and have flown them for years switch to a United flight solely because of Starlink.
Once they try us, they stick with us because they also experience great service and all the nose-to-tail things we've invested in for years, like new aircraft, larger seat back screens in every class of service, oversized bins, technology like ConnectionSaver, and a mobile app that's dramatically better than anything they've experienced before.
We know that eventually high-speed, low-Earth orbit Wi-Fi will be industry standard for everyone. But for 2027, and really 2028, we are well on our way to being the only global U.S. airline with Starlink at scale. A lot of new customers are going to try us. It's a huge head start, and we're going to press our advantage wherever we can.
While others are just ramping up on their LEO Wi-Fi installations, we'll be onto our next wave of product and technology to sustain our lead and further deepen the competitive moats around our business. Our mission will be to show new customers the very best of United and then earn their long-term loyalty by demonstrating that we're the number one airline in everything else as well.
With both fuel and industry capacity expected to be elevated next year, will that share shift happen fast enough to get us to double-digit pre-tax margins? While I do expect a meaningful RASM tailwind from Starlink in 2027, to be honest, it probably isn't enough on its own.
To get there in 2027, we probably also need at least one of the three following things to happen: lower fuel, lower industry capacity, or a continued willingness for the industry to trade load factor for yield. Regardless of what happens on how big the RASM benefits are in 2027, however, our series of big customer investments, including Starlink and some big new ideas we haven't even announced yet that are coming in the not-too-distant future, have emerged as a new tailwind to a plan that was already working at United. We expect to exit 2027 with more brand loyal customers than we otherwise would have had, and expect that to lead to higher RASM in 2027 and beyond. With that, I'll pass it over to Brett.
Thank you, Scott, and good morning. First, I want to thank all of our United employees for their tremendous work throughout the quarter. Our team demonstrated exceptional resilience and adaptability, working together to restore our operation and get our customers to their destinations. United ranked second in on-time departures for the third quarter, with United being first among the top seven U.S. carriers in July.
We also delivered our second-best third-quarter post-pandemic seat cancellation rate in United history, ranking first amongst the three largest U.S. carriers for the quarter. Ultimately, the strength of our operation is reflected in our customer satisfaction results. In the third quarter, we saw our highest quarterly NPS score since 2022 amidst record passenger growth.
Our people remain at the center of everything we do. In August, we completed the first phase of our expanded pilot training center in Denver, increasing our capacity to train up to 860 pilots per day with 86 flight simulation training devices, 52 of which are full-motion simulators. This investment supports both our existing workforce and our ability to develop the talent needed for United's future.
Transportation Secretary Duffy and FAA Administrator Bedford announced that they are seeking an additional $30 billion in improvements for our nation's air traffic control system. A safer and more resilient ATC system will benefit United's customers and operations, and we are actively engaged with the administration and both sides of the aisle in Congress to advocate for this much-needed funding.
It is especially exciting to be here in Houston today as we celebrate a major milestone in the transformation of Terminal B at George Bush Intercontinental Airport. This project represents a significant investment in one of our most important hubs, and we believe it will fundamentally improve the experience for millions of customers traveling through Houston.
We are making significant investments across our hub network, including at Washington Dulles, where we are also advancing a major airport transformation and expect to open a new concourse with 14 additional gates next month. Together, these investments reflect our continued execution of our strategy to build a stronger airline positioned for long-term profitable growth. With that, I will turn it over to Andrew.
Thanks, Brett. United's top-line Q3 revenues increased by 17.4% year-over-year to a record $17.9 billion. TRASM increased by 15.9% with yields up 17%. Passenger load factor fell modestly. Consumers and businesses have been accepting price increases, which we believe is a result of fares lagging the rest of inflation, along with other aspects of travel costs for many years. Looking at revenues by cabin in Q3, premium revenue, including Economy Plus, increased 17% on a 2.5% increase in capacity.
PRASM increased 14.1%. Non-premium revenue increased 18.4% on a half a point increase in capacity with RASM up 17.8%. Against a backdrop of strong premium cabin revenue growth, it was nice to see standard economy cabin RASMs up. Recall that in Q1 of 2026 was the first time in 12 quarters that economy cabin RASMs were positive.
In other words, yields still have a long way to go to catch up with inflation, whether measured before or after the pandemic. Expect economy RASM to outpace premium once again in Q4. Looking at revenues by travel purpose, business revenue increased by 22% in the quarter, with yields up 15%. Contracted business revenues increased by 26%.
Premium business continues to be strong with load factors in the premium cabins up a little over half a point year-over-year and up 3.6 points since 2019. Business load factor in the quarter increased by almost a point. While Starlink is important to all of our customers, it is critical for our business customers, which we believe will be a key driver of revenue and share growth in 2027. Leisure revenues were up 16% with stronger year-over-year yield gains than business traffic.
Leisure load factor fell modestly by 1.3 points, which reveals a small amount of elasticity given higher ticket prices, a trade we would make every day. Cargo revenues increased by 23% year-over-year, with most of the increase occurring in yields as our global long-haul capacity growth was minimal in the quarter. Loyalty revenue had another strong quarter, up 17%.
Remuneration from Chase was up 15%, and portfolio spend on our co-brand cards was up 13%. We remain on pace to generate 1 million new accounts in 2026, a material increase from 2025, thanks to changes to MileagePlus, along with strong marketing from both United and Chase. I've talked about United's efforts in the past to de-seasonalize our business by improving the relative RASM performance of Q3. We made substantial progress in Q3 of 2026 on this goal.
Fuel costs may make our progress hard to see, but we believe these recent results are another milestone towards our goal of reaching double-digit pre-tax margins as we move forward into a more normalized fuel environment. My goal in absolute RASM is Q1, Q2, and Q4 to be similar each year with a slight reduction in Q3, given less business traffic that travels during the summer.
We can tailor our network and capacity to achieve this goal over time. We expect RASM and yields increase sequentially from Q3 to Q4. Sell-in yields have been up in the very high teens in recent weeks, including some weeks north of 20%. However, we know we need to achieve more to capture fuel costs as we see them today.
For a little more color in RASM strength in Q3, Central America, the Caribbean, Florida, Newark, and London were strong RASM tailwinds in the quarter. In fact, Florida RASMs were up 26% in the quarter alone. Hawaii, the South Pacific, and Chicago were RASM relative laggards in the quarter. Hawaii will have a better Q4 but will still underperform.
A quick note on Chicago, starting in the second quarter of 2027, we expect minimal domestic industry capacity growth at O'Hare due to the FAA capacity constraints where the growth in total flights is capped. United is capped at 600 in daily flights, and we think that may be the likely outcome well into 2028 at this point. United's revenue share in Chicago continues to climb as we win more brand loyal customers.
United hit a key milestone in Q2 of 2026, capturing 50% of Chicago-based passengers' revenue for the first time. Congratulations to the entire United team for delivering this amazing achievement. Beyond Chicago, we also saw share gains in all remaining United hub cities with the latest data released by the DOT. We believe these share gains will increase further in 2027 as Starlink becomes commonplace across all United flights.
As we think about what changes from today to the end of 2027 for United, I wanted to give you a few highlights. We'll continue the efforts to deseasonalize our RASM production. We're excited to reestablish JFK as a destination in 2027. We will largely complete our United Next connectivity goals in our mid-con hubs by the summer of 2027. We'll turn more of our attention towards our coastal gateways and international expansion in 2027 and beyond.
We'll open amazing new terminal facilities in Houston tomorrow and in Dallas in just a few weeks. We'll also open numerous United Clubs. Our newest Club right here in Houston, Texas, opens tomorrow, which will not only be United's largest Club, but the largest in the Americas. By the end of 2027, we expect to finish installing Starlink on all our jets, both mainline and express.
We'll finish installation of our interior signature cabins, including seat back, entertainment for all, large overhead bins, and new lighting by the end of 2027. We'll also grow premium capacity faster than main cabin capacity as we introduce the A321neo Coastliner and A321XLR at scale we believe no other airline is contemplating. We'll launch Relax Row, an Economy Plus open middle seat extending premium products to all cabins as we elevate the experience in all cabins for all passengers.
We'll continue to refine our product segmentation and retailing with the introduction of tiered fares across our network and various product types. Again, we'll add more than 1 million new co-brand accounts as we enter the sunset years of our existing Chase agreement. We aim to recapture 100% of the price of oil in 2027. At United, we will continue to stay focused on our consistent strategy and path, recognizing that our relative results show our plan is working. Our goal is double-digit pre-tax margins, and we remain steadfast in our commitment to deliver them. With that, I will pass it over to Mike. Mike?
Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the entire United team for the tremendous effort as we manage through a high fuel cost environment, an environment in which most of the industry will lose money. Our third quarter results reinforce why United is on the right path and demonstrate how much progress we've made earning brand loyal customers, which are critical to delivering resilient and durable earnings. In the third quarter, we were deliberate about where we deployed capacity and continued to thoughtfully invest in the business.
We remain determined to achieve double-digit pre-tax margins and an investment-grade credit rating. Our ability to pass on higher fuel costs through higher ticket prices was stronger than ever before and demonstrates how much United and the industry has transformed. In the third quarter, we delivered earnings per share of $2.54 and a pre-tax margin of 6.2%.
Earnings per share were within our guidance range. Fuel prices accelerated in the quarter and drove a $1.8 billion increase in expense year-over-year. We recaptured 72% of the increase in fuel expense as much of the increase versus our guidance occurred in the period, and most of our revenue was already on the books. We're highly confident in our ability to recapture 100% of increases in our fuel cost, but with a lag.
Our CASM-ex was up 7.8%, and that higher rate now captures the full run rate of expense from our flight attendant deal. We also incurred the impact of closing capacity reductions. We expect Q3 to be the high-water mark for CASM-ex, and expense growth will step down in the fourth quarter and then step materially lower in 2027.
Outside of the impact from closing capacity reductions, our CASM-ex trajectory has remained consistent with our expectations at the start of the year. I want to thank our team for their diligent work to keep us on track in such an inflationary environment. Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter earnings per share to be between $0.50 and $1.50.
Assuming an all-in fuel price per gallon of approximately $4.80, based on last Friday's forward curve. Underlying this guidance is a CASM-ex that will decelerate and a TRASM that is accelerating compared to the third quarter. This is a good setup as we exit the year. We are forecasting that our fuel recapture in the fourth quarter will be similar to the third quarter, given the continued increase in fuel prices.
This is lower than the 100% we were anticipating due to the rapid spike in jet fuel prices late in the third quarter. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $17.7 billion of liquidity, including our undrawn revolver, and paid down approximately $1 billion of debt. We raised $900 million of new debt that was priced at a fixed rate equivalent in the low 5% range.
Additionally, we upsized our revolving credit facility last week from $3 billion of unfunded liquidity to $5 billion, and we extended the maturity two more years to 2031. We intend to reduce gross debt by the same amount as we target $18 billion in liquidity at year-end. We expect this shift to unfunded liquidity to save approximately $70 million of annual interest and fees.
This is currently the largest airline revolving credit facility in history, and yet another proof point of the strength of our business and our balance sheet. Rising oil prices have impacted our near-term metrics, with our net leverage at 2.4 x. However, we remain determined to achieve investment grade metrics and hopefully also ratings next year.
We continue to target net leverage of less than 2x . Our financial performance continues to demonstrate the strength of United's business model and our ability to execute through industry shock events. We can't control oil prices or geopolitics, but we can control how we run our airline. In an environment like this, the gap between airlines that have invested for the long term and those that haven't has become even more apparent.
While our relative margin has been industry-leading, we remain focused on achieving absolute double-digit pre-tax margins as our top financial goal. We will continue making investments that further our competitive advantage, and that will lead to those double-digit pre-tax margins. I'll now turn it to Kristina to kick off the Q&A.
Thank you, Mike. We will now take questions from the analyst community. Please limit yourself to one question, and if needed, one related follow-up question. Regina, please describe the procedure to ask a question.
Thank you. The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Please hold for a moment while we assemble our queue. Our first question will come from the line of Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Oh, yeah. Hey, good morning, everyone. I'm staring at $5 jet fuel, and hard to believe that you're still on track to do $3 billion of pre-tax profit or more this year. United has clearly cracked the code here. A question directly to Mike. Look, as best as I can tell, among publicly traded airlines, I think you had the highest liquidity position of anyone, and yet you upsized it by another $2 billion.
If my math serves me right, I presume your liquidity is right around $20 billion, unless you've paid down debt recently since quarter end. Why the step up? Is it because you already had a lot? Is it just being poised for opportunity? We know that things break at $5 jet fuel. Talk about the philosophy behind having so much cash. Thanks for taking my question.
Yeah, thanks, Mike. It's a great question, and it does create optionality, but we are cost-conscious. If you think about when we've raised our debt and where we're investing the liquidity, the cost to carry is relatively low right now, number one. Number two, the upsizing the revolver is going to allow us to carry that liquidity in a more efficient way. I said in my prepared remarks, but let me repeat. We intend to bring that liquidity to $18 billion at year-end. $20 billion is too much.
We will bring that down. That is going to save us over $70 million in interest and fees. As we earn an investment-grade credit metric, we will reevaluate the level of liquidity. We are comfortable with this. We are an industry that asteroids hit. We are well prepared for lots of events, and it is a relatively low cost of insurance to carry the extra liquidity.
Mike, I will just quickly add, if people think we did that for optionality to do M&A activity, that is absolutely 100% not the rationale. It is save $70 million to get to the same liquidity targets we had anyway. It is simple.
Great. Thanks, everyone.
Our next question will come from the line of Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. Thanks very much for the time. Just curious for Andrew, you mentioned a lot of momentum on the loyalty side of the business, and it's been kind of running the low double-digit rate the last couple of years, but a million new co-brand accounts annualizing next year, and then some of the other benefits with Starlink. You've made a lot of leadership changes on loyalty. Curious about connectivity as well. I guess, long-winded way of saying, could we see that other revenue line item accelerate, maybe into the low teens potentially next year?
I think we hope so. As you pointed out, the milestone of a million new accounts, as those accounts mature and spend more next year and the year after, that's how that calculation works, as I think we're all aware of. We'll do a million accounts this year. We'll get those accounts spending. We'll get them upgraded to higher credit cards, the club card in particular, and then we'll do another million accounts next year. That's a big investment in making that number in terms of total loyalty revenue increase, hopefully in the mid-teens, at least 14% or 15% consistently for the next few years, or maybe even higher.
Thanks. That's really helpful. Then if I could squeeze in a quick follow-up just on the tiered fare categories. Just curious early learnings with that and maybe how you could think about that tailwind into next year, specifically around buy-up to basic business. Thanks again for the time.
Yeah. I will say that we are really pleased by the launch of the tiered fare products, and we continue to expand them and are doing a bit more in the next few weeks. I think it's been great for our customers. It provides more options for them and great for the airline as well. We redesigned united.com specifically to sell them effectively, and we'll continue to refine our approach on that I think has even more upside.
The buy-up rates are incredibly high. Consumers know what they're buying, and we disclose it very carefully. This has worked for years. It started with basic economy a little more than 10 years ago. We've learned a lot of lessons on how to do this, and I just think it's been really monumental for us, more so than people realize, and we're glad to pave the way on this.
It was a very good idea, and we look forward to refining it. If you recall, the early days of basic economy took a lot of refinements, and I think we're just at the early days of this phenomena in the other cabins as well.
Our next question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the fleet, maybe just based on deliveries slipping out of 2026 and your view for higher for longer fuel and accelerating capacity. How are you thinking about 2027 deliveries and retirements? Maybe as a follow-up to that, your specific plans on MAX deliveries across the MAX 9 and MAX 10 models in 2027.
Hi, Sheila. Look, we're really excited and want to congratulate Boeing for the certification of the MAX 10. The MAX 10 is a big part of our up-gauging strategy. It's going to be a very competitive aircraft for our network. So very excited about taking delivery of that. As we look into 2027, I think we're going to take about two wide-body aircraft a month, and we'll take over 100 narrow-body aircraft.
So we have some pent-up demand in our fleet, with older aircraft that are maintenance inefficient, fuel inefficient, and so regardless of the amount of capacity we end up flying, there is an opportunity for us to modernize the fleet and to up-gauge the fleet that has really strong economics. So we're excited to accelerate that rate of delivery on both narrow and wide.
Our next question will come from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. Maybe I'll push back a little bit on that opening statement from you, Scott. The bare thesis that's out there is that you already had low fuel. You had structural change in the industry that brought industry supply super low for a long period of time. Now, obviously fuel has spiked. Industry supply is ramping into that. You're still seeing competitors discount close in. I'm trying to feel comfortable about the long-term double-digit pre-tax margin. It just feels like tweaks in supply don't get you there anymore. If you could just paint the picture a little bit better, I think that would be helpful. Thanks.
I'll do my best. I'll disaggregate it into unique United and industry. Unique United, we've been winning share kind of everywhere we fly at all of our hubs for a while now. I have pretty good anecdotes already. It's mostly anecdotal now, but that Starlink is causing customers to move. What I hear from those people as they get on, the number one thing I hear is they pick a United flight, they live somewhere else or a frequent flyer somewhere else. They pick a United flight and they say, "Oh, my God, the app is amazing. Why doesn't any other airline have that?" Then the people are nice, and they wind up switching.
I don't think that's going to happen fast enough personally in 2027 to get us to double digits without some other structural macro changes, as I said in my opening comments, but it's a big tailwind. That's sort of unique to United. On the structural level, boy, I happen to think that jet fuel prices are going to be high all the way through next year.
There've been an awful lot of airlines, say, managing their business as if it weren't for fuel. Which in the short term is a way to absolve yourself of responsibility and accountability. I just don't think that's going to last. Really what I think is going to, I don't know the timing. I think this is more a question of when than if.
But if oil prices stay high, like I think they will through next year, I find it low probability that every airline runs out what their current capacity plans are for the full year. I know they are all going to get on calls and say it, but once they get an activist investor coming in or something else like that happens, it changes your mind in a hurry.
The losses will be. So six to 10 U.S. airlines are going to lose money this year. If oil is higher next year, the stress is building. I think there are going to be supply changes. Actually being successful as an airline is really simple. One golden rule, don't fly places that lose money. While that is simple, very few people follow it, but there is going to be less loss-making flying.
I think, by the end of next year, I do not know when it is going to happen, but I think at some point next year, these calls are going to be transitioned to 2028 is going to be a really good year because more structural change has happened in the industry. Structural change has happened this year. The fact that Spirit went away was a reprieve from some airlines from making hard decisions. It gave them a reprieve. But there are other airlines that are next up on the firing line, and I think changes are coming.
Okay. Thank you. Maybe kicking over to Mike. It has been difficult to model costs, and I know it is not just a United thing, it is more of an industry problem, or an industry headwind. I know you are talking about decelerating growth into next year, but if you could just give any color around 2027 and how you view cost. I think just people are trying to get comfortable with that side of the equation as we determine where fares go in general. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Scott, and I think it is a reasonable question to ask. This team has done an incredible job of managing the inflationary pressures we faced in 2026. I will repeat what I said in my script. Were it not for the voluntary reductions in capacity, our 2026 CASM-ex is tracking exactly where we expected it to at the beginning of the year. So, given the inflationary pressures, given what we have seen from peers, I think that is an incredible result.
As we look to 2027, we are going to continue to target 2%-3% CASM-ex. We are definitely facing inflationary pressures. One of the biggest inflationary pressures we are facing is from increasing distribution costs, because as fares go up, the distribution cost is a percentage of fares. We are facing airport costs that since the pandemic have gone up by 60%.
There's lots of work to do to run a more efficient airline to offset those inflationary pressures. At United, we're going to have a unique tailwind in increasing gauge growth in 2027. We're going to work hard to live within that 2%-3% CASM-ex in 2027 and beyond. But we do have our work cut out for us.
The last thing I will say is, in environments like this where fuel prices spike, we're going to have no hesitation to cut capacity of flights that are losing money because we're not managing the CASM-ex, we're managing the margin. We're doing a great job relative CASM-ex. We're not changing the goals. The goals are going to remain aggressive, but make no mistake, we're managing the margin, not CASM-ex.
Our next question will come from the line of Andrew Didora with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess my first one for Andrew or Scott, I guess you talk about this higher for longer fuel environment in 2027. I guess, where do you think industry capacity should shake out next year, and how does United's growth fit into that overall industry backdrop?
I think Scott gave the macro answer to that question largely, so I don't think I want to repeat it. For United, we're very conscious of our capacity. I think about it every day, and look at every flight and every market. And we are nimble, and we will make the right decision, and we'll make the right decision for 2027 as well as we usually do. I think we have a very good track record on this.
Okay, thanks. I guess a second one, just quickly for Mike. Obviously, there was a loyalty transaction out in the market a couple of months ago with Air Canada that I think shed a little bit more light on the value of that business. I know you don't need to do that type of deal, but I think in the past, you've sometimes floated the idea of providing a little bit more disclosure just to give investors a little bit more color on that business. Have you any new thoughts post that transaction? Thank you.
Thanks, Andrew. I love the question. Look, we are the first airline to use our loyalty program as collateral in the pandemic. I want to compliment the Air Canada team on an incredible transaction. I think it highlights the value of these loyalty programs, the tremendous value that frankly, we're not seeing in our share prices. That said, here at United, as Andrew has shared, we are getting close to the sunset of our existing contract with our partner, number one.
Number two, given that it makes sense, given that it's about to sunset and given that it's a historic contract that it doesn't have modern economics, it makes much more sense for us to wait and get the new contract, and then provide the additional disclosure. For now, holding pattern, but Air Canada did an amazing job of highlighting the value that exists in these programs, and particularly here at United.
Our next question will come from the line of Jamie Baker with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everybody. Scott, since you brought up the C word, you've been vocal
What's the C word?
Consolidation. What do you think?
Oh.
You've been vocal about not engaging in M&A. You've spoken about JetBlue specifically, given the, among other things, 10%-15% margin gap between yourselves and them, and a preference to quote unquote, "Go big." I believe that was your term when it comes to consolidation.
There's been no movement at American forward in terms of regime change, but we've seen JetBlue's market cap get decimated here. We've got $2 billion of loyalty bonds trading at, whatever, half of par. Obviously, it's a touchy subject, but why shouldn't United be a potential solution for JetBlue as they ponder a restructuring?
Well, I have done enough talking this year, I think, about the C word, as you say. I have done enough talking to be newsworthy in the last 48 hours. Actually, I did an interview six or seven weeks ago to be newsworthy. I am not going to create any new. I have nothing new to add on that. We are focused on, you can hear from our call, you can hear from our tone. We feel great about what we are doing here at United. I wish oil prices were lower in the short term.
I am really proud of the team. The fact that we are able to be doing this well in this environment. I think it is a matter of when, not if, we get to double-digit margins on a standalone basis. I think, by the way, Starlink, schedule is number one, it is the clear number two in choice when people are choosing an airline, to me. It is a significant advantage we are going to have for the next couple of years.
We are really focused on, my message to the team is, we are going to have new customers trying us from other airlines, and our mission, I am going to do it with a bunch of employees here in an hour, is make sure they know that United is the best airline in the country for them to fly and get them to be long-term customers.
I would say, by the way, for those on the call that are listening, that fly other airlines, at some point in the next 12 months, when you find yourself on the second or third United flight because of Starlink, and you find yourself taking the application from the flight attendant for the credit card, and you realize that you have switched airlines, you will get a twofer. You will have upgraded your airline and your stock investment idea.
Okay, fair enough. Andrew, just quickly, can you expand on your earlier Chicago comment? I know you do not want to give specifics in terms of hub profitability, but on a fuel-neutral basis, can you help us think about the shape of how margins have evolved there and what you expect to occur after the April date that you identified a few minutes ago? Not talking absolute, I am just looking at how the change ex- fuel, if you will, in Chicago profitability has looked.
Sure. Well, look, I'll start off with, in looking backwards at our RASM results in Q3, I don't think you saw any speed bumps, right. Looking forward to our outlook for Q4, I think our numbers also show there are no speed bumps. That being said, there is a bit more capacity in Chicago than normal year-over-year. That headwind, I think, turns into a tailwind as of April, given the way the FAA is managing capacity at the airport.
Overall, I'm not going to put a lot of fuel on this fire, but I would tell you that the RASM Premium we have to brand X is about 14 points, and our CASM premium is better by 3 points to 4 points. So I'll leave you to do all the economics and math that results in, but that's the latest data that we see. We watch it daily. But overall, I think that the macro point is, it's a minor thing in our Q3, Q4 numbers. As we enter the bulk of next year, I think Chicago becomes a tailwind as of April and beyond.
Our next question will come from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks everyone. In the prepared remarks, you spoke about de-seasonalization efforts in 3Q bearing fruit, and potentially that extending to other quarters as well. Can you just remind us what that means for how we think about the 4Q to 1Q walk on maybe key KPIs, probably leading with capacity?
Yeah. First of all, going back to Q3, I have been disappointed over a period of years that Q3's relative financial results have been disappointing versus Q2, which has gotten incredibly strong. June, in particular, is an amazing month now, much more than it had been in the past. August is the opposite of that, I think, as kids go back to school earlier.
We have been working really hard to make sure that we can get to a path where our Q3 earnings are at par with the other quarters. For Q4 and Q1, we had a lot of work on Q1 coming out of the pandemic, particularly as business traffic evolved, and I think that has come a long, long way, particularly with our Atlantic RASMs and relative profitability.
But as I said earlier in the opening, we would like for the RASM performance in all the quarters to be the same, other than Q3, where given there is just less premium business traffic in Q3, we think that should be a little bit lower. Again, that number was masked by fuel, I think, in Q3 of this year. But that is our goal, and de-seasonalizing the business creates a lot more ability to fly and even schedule almost year-round, which creates other cost efficiencies, which we think is the right way to go. That is what we are evolving to as quickly as we can.
Very good. Thank you.
Our next question will come from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Scott or Andrew, I think you both mentioned potentially trading load factor for yields or maybe dialing that in in revenue management systems. Is that something that United is maybe considering even more looking into 2027?
Look, I think it's obvious where the price of fuel is. It's obvious where our total CASM is. It's also, therefore, mathematically obvious what yields need to do. Do I expect there to be some impacts on load factor? There was a tiny bit in Q3. There will probably be a little bit more in Q4. But we know where yields need to be for United. We are taking all the appropriate actions to get them there so we can recover 100% of fuel. I do expect that that means slightly lower load factors. I will just reiterate, we do not manage to a fixed load factor target. That's not how it works. It's not how it should work.
We manage to maximize our RASM and our long-term margin goal, and if load factors fall, they are incredibly high, by the way, relative to all of the past in my experience in this business. That's perfectly okay.
Appreciate that, Andrew. I guess, what people are a little bit worried about here is obviously if you look at fourth quarter domestic capacity, both United and your large competitor, American, are up about 8%-9% domestically, and obviously into a higher jet fuel environment. Can you just talk to us about the classic prisoner's dilemma between this? I think, Andrew, you highlighted the relative performance in Chicago, but I guess, how does this ultimately resolve, and can this be a more sustainable long-term outlook competitively?
Well, I am not going to talk about the other guy in that level of detail. I can tell you that we are winning share in all our hubs, not just Chicago, by the way. We have an amazing competitive tool out there with Starlink to help us monetize that more, even for the next year.
I also point out, why Starlink is so important to us is in this unique advantage, is that our hubs are contested much more than the average legacy airline, and therefore there are a lot more splitters that split their business between airlines. In fact, there are a few people in our hubs, I do not know exactly why, that give a higher share of wallet to the other airlines. We are going to reverse that next year and gain more share.
We feel really good about the unique aspects for where we are going. For Chicago, whether I like it or not, the FAA has imposed caps, and those are a reality, and that is going to change the game a bit. We like our advantage in Chicago.
It is a good advantage to have, and we will work it, and continue to push it. I like our position, quite frankly, in Chicago for the short run and the long run. I do think the competitive heat, as maybe you would describe it, is going to be different for them a vast majority of 2027, just because of the conditions placed upon us by the FAA, and also because of our gains of share because of Starlink.
Our next question will come from the line of John Godyn with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Scott, I just wanted to ask another one about the industry structure and really just get your perspective. You talk about a structure where there is a small cluster of airlines that are succeeding, executing, winning, et cetera, and a separate group that are struggling.
When we look at that group that is struggling, generally, oversimplifying their turnaround plans are usually something like we are going to add some premium seats, we are going to change some fees and fares, we are going to add a couple bells and whistles for the passengers, and we are going to double or triple our earnings in two or three years, which, of course, is way faster than United did when it was doing its turnaround. You are somebody who has actually quarterbacked a lot of these turnarounds successfully. I'm just curious what your reaction is when you see other airlines that have never done it, simplifying it in that way.
Well, thanks. You described it kindly. I'll describe it, I think, more accurately. I'm not meaning to be mean. I look at those strategies as hope is our strategy, and it's not going to work. The reason it doesn't work is because it's not bells and whistles. You used the term bells and whistles. You can't just put a couple of bells and whistles on it.
You can't just put a first class in. You can't just put in a seat that has a door or whatever. You just can't match selectively some of the things that have been done. It's the whole package. We have the best product, I think, in the Western world now on our aircraft, and we've gotten some recognition of that from others. That's the easiest part to match for another airline, to match the product.
It's really important, but it's the easiest part to match. The rest of the stuff is harder. We are the best, we're the most reliable airline in each one of our hubs. Newark is now the most reliable of the three New York airports. We've invested an incredible amount in technology to do that, and that's why we operate in the hardest places in the country, but that's why we're number one. That's hard to replicate. Technology, incredibly hard to replicate.
I don't think people appreciate how big the technology advantage is at United. If you fly United, you can see it in the app, but the app is the tip of the iceberg. We started six years ago, a program, hundreds of millions of dollars that we spent to get our technology moved off of legacy platforms and systems and into modern programs.
Not just moving it to the cloud, but moving it to modern platforms so we can move fast and do things that others simply can't do because we did that. At the time, there was no ROI on that, because we didn't know what we'd do with it. But it enables us to do incredible.
Our technology lead is massive versus, I don't know who the second-best airline in the world, but it is massive versus all of them. Finally, service. When you create an airline that your employees are proud of, and that's my job, is to get our employees inspired to believe in United, and they do, and they are delivering for customers. You put that whole package together, that's what being premium. It's all of the above. I like the analogy that I use.
You can't just take a Four Seasons room, copy the room, put it in a Motel 6, and expect it to be a Four Seasons. You need everything else that goes with it, to be successful. There are only two airlines in the country that have been doing it. We've been doing it for 10 years. You just don't snap your fingers and say, "Oh, I'm going to match this one element," and it works. I'm not worried about it as a competitor. They're doing that. It might be better for their own airlines, they may be able to upsell at their own airlines and stuff, but brand loyal customers are not going to switch because of that.
There was a lot there. One thing you didn't emphasize was international networks and the importance of international networks in all of this.
Well-
We do see some of these domestic carriers kind of suggesting or exploring or trying to execute on international build-outs. Any perspective there?
No. The reason I didn't say that is because the commodity part of the business is the route network. Almost everyone in the business, with the exception of people that sit in the conference rooms at United and Delta, thinks of air travel as a commodity. The route network is incredibly important. Patrick is sitting in this room.
He is the best in the world at cool destinations on the map like Nuuk, Greenland, or Ulaanbaatar, or flying to Sapporo now. That is a nice to have for the frequent flyer program, but that is the commodity part of the business. The service, product, technology, and reliability are what sets a brand-loyal airline apart. By the way, for international, United was born on third base. I wish we had a huge domestic hub like Atlanta or Dallas. We don't.
That is a weakness for us compared to the other guys. But on international, Newark, Dulles, and San Francisco are really the three best hubs in the country for international, particularly premium, but all international service. And we happen to have hubs in those places. It is just a natural advantage for us.
Our next question will come from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Scott, I think there is an assumption that whenever fuel eventually goes lower, we are going to give some chunk of this pricing back, and I will preface, maybe this is just a really dumb question, but you are all demonstrating so much more pricing power than I think any of us thought a few quarters ago. It is like, why cannot price or RASM or whatever continue to go up whenever fuel eventually goes lower? I guess, can pricing ever really decouple from capacity, or is that just way too naive of a thought or hope?
It is an insightful question, and I will try to answer it. I have answered too many questions today, but I will answer this too because I think it is really important. First, I think it is important to note that while pricing has gone up a lot this year, it is still down in real terms compared to 2019. So we are bouncing still off of a COVID low. And air travel remains a great value.
The more important point for will it stay and will it hold is I think we are demonstrating this year that it is different this time. It is different this time because costs have escalated so much across the industry. It is not just fuel price. Our airport fees at our hub airports are 60% higher now than they were pre-COVID. And those are the kinds. That escalate, maintenance fees, engines, all that stuff has just gone through the roof.
Those apply to every airline. In the past, the cost leaders were the high margin, low-cost airlines. They are now the low margin, no longer low-cost airlines, because costs have been harmonized. Every airline, like six to 10 U.S. airlines are going to lose money this year. It's expensive to fly airplanes. You can't continue to exist unless you can get to profitability.
I think the tide has to rise for everyone, or those airlines simply won't exist, which would, of course, adjust pricing as well. They won't exist if they can't get pricing up. That is what's happened this year. People, by and large, have been willing to accept lower load factors. I think it's an important point. I said it in my opening script. Maybe we'll continue to trade that, and maybe that way we get there next year anyway.
It doesn't happen 100%. There's still temptation from people to run fare sales and things, but mostly people have been willing to trade yield for load factor because they look at it and say, "I have to charge what my cost is. It costs me X to fly an airplane. My yield has to be higher than X." That sort of fundamental math applies to every airline.
It's actually why I'm pretty confident that we're not going to take steps backwards in pricing because everyone's looking at. They got to get their yield at least above their cost. A number of airlines aren't there yet. So I feel confident. I've been around the industry a long time like you, and it's certainly easier, by the way, if there was less capacity. It's more straightforward.
Because the temptation to run a sale and boost your load factor is lower if you're already booked high. It'd certainly be easier, but I think there's a good chance. I certainly think pricing is going to stay, but I think that there's a good chance that the industry surprises to the upside on yield next year, even in a higher capacity environment.
Mike, just real quick, when you talk about 100% fuel recapture next year, realistically, what's the fuel price we need to get back to to actually get there?
Look, we're trying not to be a hedge fund or fuel trader. What we do is we look at current crack spreads, and we look at the forward curve for Brent. If you look at that, fuel price in 2027 would be over $4 for the full year, and it would be about $4.50 for Q1 and $4.20 for Q2, drifting to $3.70 by 4Q at 2027. We think about that as the base case. I'm sure that's wrong, but we don't try to prognosticate on any different view versus the forward curve. That's what we would need to pass through.
Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks. Good morning. A couple quick ones. Andrew, where are you seeing the most sequential improvement in yields into 4Q, either by geography or customer segment? Really hoping, I know broad-based is a popular term right now, really hoping we can get more than that. Thank you.
Sure. The simple answer, as I said earlier, is leisure yields are higher than business, but business is still strong. The momentum is a bit stronger in international. As you saw in Q3, Latin had a great quarter. I expect that to happen yet again in Q4. We're not going to lose any momentum there. I also expect the Atlantic and the Pacific to gain momentum. That's why we gave the guide, and that's how we're talking about our acceleration into Q4. Hopefully that helps.
That does help. Then just very quickly, cargo, can you speak to. You mentioned that it is mostly yield, but is this macro? Is this geography? Is this go to market? What is driving the continued strength in cargo? Thank you.
Asia is definitely very strong. As you know from our numbers, we did not grow our global long haul a lot last year, and in particular in the high cargo tracks, we did not. So we have been focused on yield in the bellies, because the bellies are relatively full to begin with, and so we did a great job on that track. We will see where it goes next year.
But the environment for cargo, I think, does remain strong. It is more of a commodity-based product than our passenger seats at this point. We are aware of that. We are doing our best to even de-commoditize cargo. That is a whole another subject. But cargo is an amazing part of United Airlines. We lead the way in the U.S. and expect to continue to do so for a long time to come.
Our next question will come from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for having me. Just one on corporate for Andrew. So, it continues to be a bright spot. I understand that leisure yields are having a bit of a recovery here, but still really strong corporate yields. With corporate load factors up 1 point in 3Q, that is better than the, I think, up 0.5 points in 2Q. Do you expect that to continue to improve based on current 4Q trends? Then I guess maybe just higher level, if we see a larger step up in corporate volume recoveries, which I think are still a decent amount lower than 2019, what could this mean for premium cabin pricing over the medium term?
Yeah, corporate is still, I would say, four to five load factor points behind 2019 as a contribution to United Airlines. As that continues to move in this direction, obviously we are really excited. This is another place that we are born on third place for all the obvious reasons, or third base, not third place, for all the obvious reasons.
I think that is a meaningful tailwind to the premium global business carriers, of which there is primarily two in the country. That is, I think, a big tailwind for us. The trends for Q4 look identical in this space to Q3 for me in terms of the yield production and the volumes and the revenue. We are going into a, I think, a particularly strong Q4, where our business traffic just shines in the United network. I think you will see that when we are talking about this in January of next year.
Maybe just one on 2027 capacity. As we have talked about, United is one of the only carriers making money this year. Capacity to accelerate into next year. I think there are quite a few other carriers who should probably be looking at their 2027 capacity plans with a lot more scrutiny than United. Does overall industry capacity growth figure into your plans on growth, just given the impact that could have on the pricing environment?
Yeah. Scott talked about this, I think, in a great amount of detail in that I do not think anybody's capacity plans for 2027 are firm, and even when they are, they probably won't be realized for numerous different reasons. I will leave it at that. I think we have a very good track record of making great capacity decisions, and I expect we will do the same in 2027.
We will now switch to the media portion of the call. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. Please hold for a moment while we assemble our queue. Our first question will come from the line of Leslie Josephs with CNBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Andrew, you had mentioned the load factors going down a little bit and how maybe going forward the pricing is so strong it does not really matter. Do you worry at all about customers getting priced out of air travel, period, and if airfare stays this high? I also wanted to ask you, Scott, Ed Bastian is getting honored at The Wings Club Foundation later this week, and I was wondering if you have any words for him, and how you see your competition with Delta currently. Thank you.
Well, I will start then. I have a huge respect for Ed, and I have been public in saying I took inspiration from what Delta did. Now, I think we have passed them and we are the innovator now, but I took a lot of inspiration from what Ed did. I am going to miss it because we host a big charity event in Dallas this weekend, but I texted Ed as soon as he got it, and said, "Well deserved, maybe a decade late," that you should have got it a long time ago. I think Delta and Ed have done a great job. It is well deserved. He should have gotten it earlier. But I am sorry I am going to miss it, because we have got a conflict.
Leslie, I will take the first part of the question, I guess. Look, our perspective is we need to charge prices that recover the total cost of what it costs to fly an airline, and we have to do that. That being said, as we create our products, we are aiming to elevate for all, in all cabins, for all passengers, and create value for all in the process of doing so. The latest example is Wi-Fi that works. It works at scale, and it is going to be a reason, I think, customers increasingly choose United Airlines in 2027 and beyond.
Our final question will come from the line of John Pletz with Crain's Chicago Business. Please go ahead.
Morning. You mentioned that you think capacity at O'Hare will be lower for longer. Why is that, and why is it going to be good for United?
Well, this is a really complicated assessment, but there is an enormous amount of construction occurring at O'Hare. It goes through the early 2030s, and that is the timeline. We wish it was faster, by the way. We were always supportive of redeveloping the field and getting modern facilities when maybe others were not. We look forward to those facilities being built. But in the meantime, it is a construction zone and we need to reflect that reality.
I think the taxiways and other aspects of the airfield, which do not have immediate changes planned for them, are just going to take years to resolve. It's disappointing. As we invest all this money in the field, I think United Airlines would like to grow. But at the same time, it's important that it be a reliable airfield for all travelers on all airlines.
We've had numerous conversations with the FAA about this, and that's where I think it's coming out at. My guess is that this restriction lasts for longer than its full effect, but that's simply my guess based on what I see in terms of construction at the airport and the timelines for completion.
You cut out there a bit. You said, "My guess is," what?
That this is a restriction that lasts until the construction at the airport is done and the taxiway situation has been resolved.
All right, thanks.
I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.
Thanks everyone for joining the call today. Please contact Investor Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Bye, everyone.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.