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Earnings Call: Q1 2020

May 7, 2020

Speaker 1

Declined 2% through the end of February and revenue per member was roughly flat. But with roughly 1300 of intervals exchange resorts either closed or not taking reservations in the short term due to COVID-nineteen, transaction activity was adversely impacted in March resulting in a decline in average revenue per member. As a result, adjusted EBITDA for the segment was down $13,000,000 in the quarter. 19, G and A expense declined $10,000,000 in the quarter, reflecting the continued benefit from our synergy initiatives. We realized $17,000,000 of synergies in the first quarter, bringing our total run rate savings roughly $70,000,000.

However, as we talked about in March, we have decided to defer most of our investment spending for the time being. As a result, it may take us a little longer to achieve our $125,000,000 goal, but we remain committed to generating at least this amount talking about the actions we've taken to manage high margin recurring revenue. These two businesses represent nearly 45% of our annual adjusted EBITDA contribution, diving in a little deeper, about 36 percent of our adjusted EBITDA contribution comes from our management and exchange businesses, With about 80% of this revenue coming from stickier recurring sources, including the revenue we generate for managing the resorts. And our financing business represents nearly 20% of our adjusted EBITDA contribution nearly 85 of which comes from in a strong competitive position, had to make some very tough decisions. For example, we furloughed 65% of our associates and reduced work weeks for the remainder by 25% critical positions and deferred our 2019 401 match contributions.

We've also eliminated all travel and all site meetings and curtailed all discretionary spending. These were hard choices, but we think we can manage at this level until business starts to return. On top of these cost reduction actions, we're also minimizing all CapEx, inventory and integration project spending that will allow us to to defer up to $260,000,000 activity in dividend payments for the foreseeable future. As a result of these actions, combined with the revenue and cash flow generated from our management financing businesses, We believe our monthly cash burn will be roughly Moving to our balance sheet liquidity. We ended the quarter with $650,000,000 of unrestricted cash and $98,000,000 to $531,000,000 at the beginning of April to make sure we have enough capacity in case the securitization market isn't available on reasonable terms.

At the end of support another $375,000,000 of new sales assuming 50% financing propensity. We have no corporate debt maturities until September 2022, which is our convertible note, and that's only $230,000,000. With the credit markets open and rates relatively attractive given the environment we decided to raise an additional $500,000,000 of senior secured notes, which will take our available liquidity through at least 2021 if occupancies remain at current levels and our sales centers remain closed an extended period of time. Our leverage for covenant purposes stood at only 1.3 times our March 31, number compared to the 3 times first lien leverage ratio limit in our credit agreement. Depending on the length of the shutdown, we could be above three times by the end of the third quarter.

As a result, we are pursuing an amendment to our credit facility to suspend this covenant through the first quarter of 2021. So as difficult as the current situation is, we believe we have positioned the business to of the storm and emerge in a strong position when business starts to rebound. With that, Steve and I will be happy to answer your questions. Operator. Operator?

Speaker 2

Melissa, are you there?

Speaker 3

Can you hear me now?

Speaker 2

Yes, we can. Thank

Speaker 3

We have a question from the line of Patrick Scholes.

Speaker 1

Hi, good morning, gentlemen.

Speaker 2

Good morning,

Speaker 4

Patrick. Busy morning, so I apologize if you did mention these on the in your prepared remarks already. You took a large, not unsurprisingly charge on the loan loss provision. You know, going forward, for the rest of the year, you know, what would you expect, the trends to be in that loan loss provision percentage?

Speaker 1

Sure. So what we did in the quarter, and we thought this was a good point of reference. We went back to the 'eight, 'nine financial crisis. And we looked at, for both our MVW portfolio as well as the legacy Vistana business. So we looked at how those portfolios performed call it, starting in late 2000 and 8 or 2009.

And what we saw there was we saw call it delinquency rates on average go up roughly 50% from where they were at at the time. For call it a 15 to 18 month period and then they started to come back down to more normalized levels. So, we did the same thing. We went to our defaults prior to COVID-nineteen in the current trends. And then we took those default levels up on the existing portfolio assuming a 50 ish percent increase for a 15 to 18 month period.

And that's how we came up with the $52,000,000 charge that we took in the quarter. Time will tell Patrick, obviously, this is a little bit different, but our business was at the time to grow the top line. It was a good economic environment. And we've been a lot more disciplined in this time. So, we've got a strong customer like we've always talked about with average household incomes in terms of where we target of 125,000 or more.

And generally, net worth in excess of $1,000,000. So, with that said, we'll see higher default but for now we think that reserve hopefully will cover what comes out us down the road.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you for the detail on that. You cut your the next question, you cut your dividend just yesterday where previously, obviously, it was maintained, is that due to changes in your assumptions for macro conditions since you had your, update call a month ago, or was that, a requirement to receive the additional lending that you just have taken?

Speaker 2

Yes. First of all, Patrick, I think if you go back to call that we had at the end of March, I don't think we gave any indication that we were going to continue to pay a dividend in the short term. With that said, I'll let John address your question about whether there's an additional covenant or something and require that, which is there is not.

Speaker 1

Right. I mean, Patrick, I think in this environment and you saw we went out, not that we expect we're going to need the additional $500,000,000 in liquidity. As management of the business, we're making sure we position the company and manage the rest. There's clearly, unless you've got a good crystal ball, there's clearly a lot of uncertainty going forward. And we felt like given all those risks and all the other measures we've taken in terms of reducing workweeks, furloughing folks that while, sure, we've got the cash and we could pay the dividend.

We didn't think it would be a prudent decision to do that at this point in time until we have a better sense as to when things start to open back up and how the and how the sales start to come back, have better visibility into that. And then clearly, we'll be able to readdress those decisions going forward.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you. One last question. Thoughts on if and when you might be doing your securitization and what are you hearing feeling from the securitization market as far as an appetite for an issuance? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Sure. Yes. We're, we're working on our normal term securitization right now. I'm still working through some stuff with the rating agencies in terms of default assumptions, things like that. I think for our portfolio, time is our friend because we'll be able to see how our portfolio performs.

And, age a little bit here. And I think that I think for us, I expect our portfolio to perform well. That's going to help. But that being said, as we talked about, we increased our warehouse facility. We just got a couple of $100,000,000 of capacity there.

As I said in my prepared remarks, that's roughly $375,000,000 of future sales at a 50% financing propensity. Get an 85% advance rate in our all in cost of funds on that warehouse, which goes through late 2021, is less than 2%. What I can tell you right now in the term market, we could get slightly better advance rates, but given the market right now, not much better than what we're getting under our warehouse. And the rates are higher. So given our liquidity position and the reason we always put the warehouse in place that gives us optionality.

And we don't need to go to the term market and do a securitization until that market, has has the right borrowing costs and advance rates that we'd be looking for. So we'll continue to be ready. Just like we were to go to the bond market here and take advantage of that. But at this point, We're going to see how things play out here over the next month or 2 and we'll go to the market if it comes back a little bit.

Speaker 3

Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour

Speaker 5

Good morning guys. Thanks a lot for good morning. Thanks for all the details. We appreciate it. So just I was hoping Steve or Jean, you could flesh out a little bit more about what a reopening might look like sort of in more on the phased approach.

And then if you are potentially going to be able to open, some of the more drive to heavy markets in, let's say, early summer, what quarter thereafter do you think you might be seeing tour generation that's comparable.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Brent. First of all, I guess I feel obliged to remind everyone that only 32% of our resorts are closed. The others remain open. Financial restrictions from state and local municipalities in terms of what kind of services can be offered, etcetera.

So When we speak of reopening, I'll take it in 2 different phases. Obviously, for those that are currently opening, are currently open. We will continue to ramp up activity. We have not taken new reservations for arrival, until called the end of May. However, we are honoring all existing owner reservations, that are arriving in May.

We have canceled all rentals and we'll begin to take those back up beginning of June. And of the same thing on our preview guests, which will also begin in June. I think regulations that are in place, as recently as this morning, I saw that New Jersey, for instance, has now implemented an additional 30 day restriction on travel. While there are some other parts of the country, call it, South Carolina, there seem to be much more open to allowing businesses to get back in place. So in each particular case, what we will do is as we see demand continue to pick up, we will obviously increase our staffing level as resorts, as you might imagine, with low single digit occupancy.

We've got a largely skeleton staff and those required to keep the facility maintained and looking good, but we'll begin to bring people back into the business. And then following that as occupancy levels at resorts continue to build when we believe we can operate a sales operation, which is generally speaking, co resident on the property with our resort. When we can operate that at at least a cash flow neutral basis, will begin to ramp up those sales activities. So, while I'd like to sit here and tell you that on this month or this day, that the system wide is going to look like this. I think this is really going to be a wait and see approach.

I mean, I can give you, even here in just looking in Florida. I can tell you that some of our beach locations in Florida, the advanced bookings for those even into the middle, the end of May, are looking stronger than say Central Florida. I would say in Central Florida here in Orlando, A lot of it will be contingent upon when the various parks and attractions reopen. So, I don't know if that's helpful to you. I can certainly get into more particulars, but I hopefully gives you a sense of what we're doing.

Speaker 5

Yes, that does. Thank you for that. And then wanted to follow-up on your comments on the virtual tours. Maybe you could kind of tell us how this has affected the original, rollout plan for those digital, capabilities. And do you expect that virtual tour sales will be meaningful over the next couple of quarters?

Like will they actually move the needle for you?

Speaker 2

Let me be clear about what we're talking about. We're talking about telesales. This is, expanding the number. We've always had a telesales operation. Within our company.

However, what we've done is we've taken the, call it, the top 150 of our line sales executives that people then normally take tours at our resorts. We've trained them how to, how to sell over the phone versus selling in person, may not sound like a huge difference, but in fact, it is. And we are, in fact, conducting sales with people over the phone. There's no virtual tour per se in place today and I think what we'll see is the learning that comes out of this that, we'll see, people that are good at face to face tours, some of which will be very good at telesales. Honestly, there'll be some that are very good at face but aren't very good at telesales.

I will say this. Our best sales executives have always had a book of business that with their existing owner base, that they have consistently been in touch with over the years. And so they've always had some form of telesales in many cases, it's a sales executive fielding a call or talking to an owner or says, Hey, I'd like to buy some more points. They write the contract it's all said and done. So I think we'll wait and see just how successful it is.

It's very early in the telesales arena. I can tell you that we are cautiously optimistic about the results that we're getting, but it's certainly too soon to declare victory or not. But we think it's certainly another piece of if you try to find any downsides in this horrific kind of set of circumstances that we're in. I think it's kind of causing us to be a little more innovative even more so than we had originally anticipated. And then telesales may be an even bigger prong of what we think going forward, but it's in possible to predict, how big it might be.

Thank you.

Speaker 3

We have a question from the line of Jared Shojaian.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Jared.

Speaker 3

That question has been withdrawn. We have a question from the line of Brian Dobson

Speaker 6

Hi, Brian. Hey, good morning. So I just had a couple of quick came about owner appetite to return to the resorts following the lift of travel advisories. Could you give us an idea of what your forward bookings look like for the second half of this year in comparison 2019 levels for existing owners. And in terms of sales to existing owners, what percentage of overall sales do pricing, call it, in the back half of this year in first half of next year, in comparison to 2019.

Speaker 2

Yes. So, if you look at total room nights or keys, depending on the vernacular you want to use, I can tell you that 2020. That contrasts to $2,093,000, last year. So down about 3.6%. Of the $2,018, owner stays are 78% of that total, and they were 77% of the total in 2019.

So doing the arithmetic for you. Occupancy for the second half of the year is down 1.8%. Previews are actually up call it 1%. And Transient are down 16%. That's I think the transient thing is the most logical, to be fair.

I think people will book reservations as they begin to feel more comfortable travel and the state of our resorts being open with the full facilities, etcetera. About, call it, 60% to 65% of our sales typically are to owners. I would expect that percentage to actually be a little higher because as you might imagine in our telesales activity, even in the time that we are dark in our sales galleries, There's been a lot of focus on owners and giving them what we think is a very attractive offer to add to their portfolio. So it will not surprise me if the owner sales percentage goes up from where we traditionally have it. But obviously it's you know, I can't say that with any degree of assurance, it's just logical, I think.

Speaker 1

And remember, Brian, I know you're aware of this, our resorts run on average of 90% occupancy. So when Steve compares what's on the books to this year last year, right? We would have ran a 90 ish percent occupancy in the second half of last year. So it's a very high occupancy to begin with and it's only down slightly.

Speaker 6

Yeah, that's right. So those existing owner sales are usually done at higher margins than new, new to time share sales. Do you expect those higher margins to hold, or are you offering incentives to which would generate a somewhat lower margin?

Speaker 2

Well, we're certainly offering incentives. We've rolled back the cost per point and we're providing some additional purchase incentives for people to make a decision now. Plus we're incenting cash sales at a little a better degree than we are in finance sales, all in an effort to kind of supplement our cash flow. In terms of, yes, I mean, typically an owner purchase, carries a lower marketing cost because we've already, have a relationship with that owner. And So you would think that all other things being equal that your margin would improve somewhat because of that with that said.

You got to factor in, they've got a lower price point than they had before. We've got a little higher incentive. So It's difficult to prognosticate exactly what will happen for the balance of the year. But we believe that trying to tap into that owner vein is certainly the most logical and appropriate thing for us to do now. And we'll see how the numbers come out at end.

With that, are there any more questions on the line?

Speaker 3

Yes, we have a question from the line of Jarrett. Jarrett, your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning, everyone. Can you hear me okay?

Speaker 2

Yes, you can. Yes.

Speaker 7

Okay. I'm sorry. I've been having technical difficulties in before this call started. So, and I apologize if you've already covered it in this, but I'm just hoping to understand a little bit more of, some of the comments you made liquidity because, you said you have liquidity and a shutdown through at least beyond 2021. I believe But I think you said you're only burning about $10,000,000 a month through year end.

And at that rate, it would seem that you would have a lot longer than through 2021. So are there some inventory costs or other obligations that are coming up next year? Could you just help me think about that?

Speaker 1

Sure. Hey, Jared, it's Sean. Yeah, you're right on. When we talked about getting it with all the reductions in, furloughs and all that to get it to close to as possible. Those went into effect here at pretty much at the end of April.

So when you look at call it May, through the end of the year, December, our cash burn rates that roughly $10,000,000. So pretty close to what we thought we could get when we talked about it back at the end of March when we first started doing all the different initiatives. But if you think about our our time to our normal business model, working capital outflows, you have significant maintenance fees for the inventory that we own that we haven't sold yet that we pay, caught at the end of the year beginning in early part of the year. Just like owners pay their maintenance fees, right. So that's all the inventory.

That generally is called about $150,000,000 or so of maintenance fees typically we'd have to pay. And then the others, which these aren't new, if you go and look at our commitments, we've got the New York asset light deal San Francisco, as well as Bali into a lesser degree, Costa Rica, that's about $140,000,000 in the first quarter of next year. So when you put those two items together, first quarter of next year, all else being equal with everything shutdown, no rentals, no sales, It was about a $300,000,000 outflow, right? But that, that's just the kind of typical timing. Once you get through the first quarter, you're kind of back to the run rate that we're talking about here.

And we have no other significant, capital commitments. We've got through Waikiki, which we did and announced earlier as an asset light deal. And we're working with a partner that, that would get built later and develop, that would be hopefully inventory we would need to develop and take down for a couple of years here given where we're at. But That's it. We don't have as we talked about, coming into the year, we needed to get out there and find new development deals.

So, we don't have a lot of other commitments at this point. And so you think about it on a full year basis, you're probably, looking at, call it, a $30,000,000 burn rate based on the numbers I just talked about if you normalize for the full year given that big outflow in the first quarter.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you. And then just switching gears, can you tell me how much gross VOI sales declined in April. And I guess the angle here is I'm just trying to figure out how meaningful the telesales are and you still have many resorts that are still open.

So I'm just wondering if you're selling any time shares at those resorts and just trying to understand that dynamic a little bit better.

Speaker 2

Yes, Jared. No, all of our sales centers, even in those resorts that are still open, have been closed since the end of March. So yes, there's still some telesales activity that on a normalized basis under the kind of what we're going to call our traditional telesales program. I don't have that number here in front of me. I won't tell you that it's all that material.

And we've just spun up the new telesales program here in the beginning of May. So for all intents and purposes, I think you would probably assume that close to 100% decline in VOI sales in April for the business. And that's across the entire business.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just one more quick follow-up for me. Do you know what percentage of your owners are retired and maybe even broken down further between existing owners versus the new owners you're selling to.

And if there's a meaningful difference, for those that have

Speaker 2

I mean, this is one of those things that we might have sold somebody, something 15 years ago when they gainfully employed and everything else. And they make a decision. They own their inventory 100%. They make a decision to retire. We certainly don't inquire of them, whether they're retired or still working.

And so I it would be nothing more than a swag and I'm not kind of in that business. So, I wish I could tell you, but I can't.

Speaker 7

Okay. Understood. I appreciate it. Just the angle of the question was just the idea that I think if you're retired, you're not obviously dependent on a job and you have just stable income already coming in. And I would think, anyway, in this industry in particular, you would have a lot more retirees and particularly with leisure travel.

But, all right. Thank you very much for the time.

Speaker 1

Hey, Jared, I mean, as I talked about earlier, I mean, I think retired is interesting, right, but household income or net worth of the other key statistics. Our owners tend to trend first time buyers, fifty years old, plus or minus. So talking about people that are got the household income if they aren't retired, but generally have more network than your average consumer given where we target. So once again, just some other data points, like Steve said, knowing whether just because somebody 65 nowadays doesn't mean you're retired. So we don't pull people on that, but but I think some of those other metrics are pretty good in terms of thinking about our owners.

Thank you.

Speaker 3

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Weisz, do you have any closing remarks?

Speaker 2

I do. Thank you, Alicia. Thank you, everybody, for joining our call today. We do apologize. We know there have been a few technical challenges along the way.

And we this is not traditionally how we conduct the call, but We appreciate your patience. Well, I obviously don't know when this all will end. I hope we've illustrated today that we have a unique business model with substantial recurring revenue and an owner base that has proven in the past its desire to get back to vacationing as quickly as possible. We've taken difficult and necessary steps to protect our great company and have the balance sheet and liquidity to see this through and emerge in a strong position when do. Finally, I wish all of you well and encourage you to be safe, take care of each other, take care of yourself, and hopefully in the not too distant future, we all will be able to enjoy our next vacation.

Thank you.

Speaker 3

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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