Good morning, and welcome to General Dynamics' Fourth Quarter and Full- Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question- and- answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone keypads. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Roxanne Warner. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2020 Conference Call. Joining me today are Marc Bitzer, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Jim Peters, our Chief Financial Officer. Our remarks today track with a presentation available on the investor section of our website at whirlpoolcorp.com. Before we begin, I remind you that as we conduct this call, we will be making forward-looking statements to assist you in understanding Whirlpool Corporation's future expectations. Our actual results could differ materially from these statements due to many factors discussed in our latest 10-K and other periodic reports. We also want to remind you that today's presentation includes non-GAAP measures. We believe these measures are important indicators of our operations as they exclude items that may not be indicative of results from our ongoing business operations.
We also think the adjusted measures will provide you a better baseline for analyzing trends in our ongoing business operations. Listeners are directed to the presentation appendix and the supplemental information package posted on the investor relations section of our website for the reconciliation of non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for analyst questions. As a reminder, we ask that participants ask no more than two questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Marc.
Thanks, Roxanne. Good morning, everyone. In difficult times like the ones we're living through today, it is important that we remain true to our guiding principles. Whirlpool's 110-year history is rooted in our value-driven commitment to our shareholders, employees, consumers, and communities in which we operate. In 2020, we faced unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We remained firm in our commitment to all of our stakeholders. The health and well-being of our employees was, and it remains our top priority. We increased safety measures at all manufacturing plants and provided additional resources to care for families and those who fell ill. We established business continuity plans to ensure our consumers received our products to improve life at home with their families. We continued to support our global communities by procuring medical supplies, making donations, and engineering critical equipment for frontline workers.
In parallel, we made significant advancements towards our sustainability targets, resulting in ratings improvements and external recognition. Most notably, we received a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics, a year-over-year improvement driven by our outstanding energy and water efficiency programs and our strong global product safety systems. We were named to the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index in recognition of our longstanding sustainable business practices. 2020 marked our 14th time on the list in the last 15 years. I'm very proud of the way our employees have managed through this pandemic. It is ultimately the agility of our organization and the resilience of our employees that allowed us to deliver record results in 2020. Now turning to our fourth quarter 2020 highlights on slide four, we delivered strong organic net sales growth of over 10%, driven by solid industry demand across the globe.
Additionally, we delivered ongoing EBIT margin of over 11%, a second consecutive quarter of double-digit margins and a year-over-year expansion of 410 basis points. Lastly, we successfully executed our go-to-market initiatives and drove strong cost takeout across the globe, leading to positive EBIT and EBIT margin expansion in all regions. Turning to slide five, we will discuss our full-year highlights. We took immediate and decisive action as we announced and executed our $500 million+ cost takeout program. We realigned our go-to-market strategy to effectively operate within a supply-constrained environment. Structural and sustained positive demand trends and the exceptional execution of our COVID-19 response strategy resulted in record ongoing earnings per share of $18.55, a 16% improvement compared to the prior year, above our previous guidance. Record ongoing EBIT margin of 9.1%, a 220-basis point improvement, and a 25% increase in total EBIT compared to the prior year.
Record free cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion with positive free cash flow in North America, Latin America, and Europe. Despite significant macroeconomic uncertainty, we strengthened our balance sheet and drove significant shareholder value. We reduced our gross debt leverage to 2.3x, making progress towards our long-term target of 2x. We delivered a return on invested capital of approximately 11%, representing the fourth consecutive year of improvement. As we realize the benefits of continued EBIT margin expansion at an optimized asset base in our Europe region. Lastly, we returned strong levels of cash to shareholders through share repurchases and increased our dividends for eight consecutive years. Overall, results we delivered in 2020 reflect the structural improvements we have made not just in 2020, but also those made during the years before.
We are a fundamentally different company with an improved margin and cash flow profile. 2020 could have been a setback for us. Instead, we were able to significantly accelerate our progress towards our long-term financial goals. Turning to slide six, we show the drivers of our fourth quarter and full-year EBIT margin. In the fourth quarter, price mix delivered 375 basis points of margin expansion, driven by reduced promotion investment and mix benefits as consumers invest in their homes. Additionally, we delivered on our cost takeout program, positively impacting margins by 125 basis points. Further, reduced steel and resin costs result in a favorable impact of 125 basis points.
These margin benefits were partially offset by continued marketing and technology investments and the unfavorable impact of currency. For the full-year, very strong margin expansion from price mix and our cost takeout program were partially offset by increased brand investments and currency. Overall, we're very pleased to be delivering on our long-term EBIT margin commitment, and are confident this positive momentum will continue to drive very strong results in 2021. Now I'll turn it over to Jim to review our regional results.
Thanks, Marc, good morning, everyone. Turning to slide eight, I'll review our fourth quarter regional results. In North America, we delivered 4% revenue growth driven by continued strong demand in the region. Additionally, we delivered record EBIT driven by the flawless execution of our cost takeout and go-to-market actions. Lastly, we continue to optimize our supply chain operations, driving weekly improvements in our production yield. Delivering top-line growth and a record EBIT performance, the region's outstanding results again demonstrate the fundamental strength of our business model. Turning to slide nine, I'll review our fourth quarter results for our Europe, Middle East and Africa region. Share growth in Italy and the U.K., along with strong demand in the region, drove another quarter of double digit revenue growth. Additionally, the region delivered year-over-year EBIT improvement of $29 million, led by increased demand and strong cost takeout.
We overcame the challenges presented by COVID-19 and restored profitability to the region, in line with our commitment at the start of the year. Our 2020 results demonstrate the effectiveness of our strategic actions and the progress we have made to date. Turning to slide 10, I'll review our fourth quarter results for our Latin America region. Net sales increased 5%, with organic net sales growth of 28%, led by strong demand in Brazil. The region delivered very strong EBIT margins of 12%, with continued strong demand and disciplined execution of go-to-market actions, offsetting significant currency devaluation. Overall, the region's 2020 performance serves as a proof point of the viability of our long-term financial goals, highlighting our ability to deliver double-digit margins in a strong demand environment.
Turning to slide 11, I'll review our fourth quarter results for our Asia region. In India, we delivered strong year-over-year net sales growth driven by demand recovery. In China, we delivered Whirlpool-branded share growth in addition to EBIT improvement led by cost productivity actions. Overall, we are pleased to see a rebound in Asia and look forward to building on this momentum in 2021. Turning to slide 13, Marc and I will discuss our full-year 2021 guidance. I will now turn it over to Marc to begin.
Thanks, Jim. Well, needless to say, some uncertainty remains as we continue to operate in a COVID-19 environment. However, we do believe increased disposable income, investments in the home, and a favorable housing shift are here to stay and will drive strong demand. Based on our internal model for industry and broad economy, we expect global industry growth of 4%. As we have demonstrated in 2020, we are uniquely positioned to capture these structural shifts and further advance our strategic priorities. It is with confidence that we provide our 2021 guidance, which reflects our fourth consecutive year of record earnings per share and significant top-line growth. We expect to drive net sales growth of approximately 6% as we capitalize on strong demand and share gains in all regions. Additionally, we expect to deliver above 9% ongoing EBIT margin and deliver free cash flow of $1 billion or more.
Turning to slide 14, we show the drivers of our 9%+ ongoing EBIT margin guidance. We expect price mix to deliver approximately 100 basis points of margin expansion through three key initiatives. One, disciplined execution of our go-to-market actions. Two, recently announced cost-based price increase in Brazil, Russia and India. Three, new product launches. Just to give you a few examples of our legacy of innovation. In 2020, we rolled out our new global dishwasher architecture, featuring the largest capacity third rack dishwasher. In Europe, we launched a Red Dot Award-winning built-in induction cooktop. In the United States, we entered the consumables detergent business with the launch of our ultra-concentrated Swash detergent. Next, we expect net costs to positively impact margin by 150 basis points. Ongoing cost productivity efforts, coupled with a carry-over benefit from our 2020 cost takeout program, more than offset elevated freight and labor costs.
We expect raw material inflation to negatively impact margin by 150 basis points, led by higher steel and resin costs. Further, as we continue to invest in the future, we expect increased marketing and technology investments to drive a negative margin impact of 50 basis points. While unfavorable currency, primarily in Latin America, expected to impact margins by approximately 50 basis points. In total, we expect these actions to deliver 9%+ ongoing EBIT margin, an EBIT improvement of over $100 million compared to the prior year. Now, I'll turn it over to Jim to highlight a few remaining guidance items.
Thanks, Marc. Turning to slide 15, we show our regional guidance for the year. Starting with industry demand, we expect a robust demand environment for North America, supported by continued strength from consumer nesting trends and increased discretionary spending. Additionally, the impact from positive U.S. housing starts, which began to strengthen in late 2019, and strong existing home sales will translate to higher appliance demand. In EMEA, we expect a continued recovery in the first half of the year to support strong growth. While in Latin America, we expect modest growth of 2%-4% as the benefits from government stimulus in Brazil are lessened. Asia industry is expected to accelerate by 6%-8% as the region rebounds from prolonged shutdowns in 2020. Regarding our EBIT guidance, we expect very strong margins of 15% or more in North America.
We expect the impact of favorable go-to-market initiatives and disciplined cost actions to offset cost inflation. In EMEA, we expect the strategic actions laid out during our 2019 Investor Day to drive EBIT margin expansion of over 250 basis points and a full-year EBIT margin of over 2.5%. In Latin America, we expect to deliver EBIT margins of 7% or higher as steady demand improvements and positive price mix are offset by continued currency devaluation in Argentina and Brazil. Lastly, we expect to achieve EBIT margins of 2% or higher in Asia, driven by demand recovery. Turning to slide 16, we will discuss the drivers of our 2021 free cash flow. We expect another year of very strong cash earnings of approximately $2 billion, driven by sustained EBIT margins. We plan to increase capital investments to historical levels to support the launch of innovative products around the globe.
Additionally, we will continue to invest in world-class manufacturing and our digital transformation journey. As we ended 2020 with record low inventory levels, we are planning for a moderate inventory build. We anticipate restructuring cash outlays of approximately $225 million, primarily due to the impact of COVID-19 related restructuring actions executed in 2020 and the exit of our Naples, Italy, operations. Overall, we expect to drive free cash flow of $1 billion or more as we focus on continuing to deliver record EBIT margin levels and prioritizing our capital investments. Turning to slide 17, we provide an update on our capital allocation priorities for 2021. We remain fully committed to funding the business, driving innovation and growth, while continuing to strengthen our balance sheet and return cash to shareholders.
We expect to invest over $1 billion in capital expenditures and research and development, highlighting our commitment to driving innovation and growth in the future. We have reinstated our share repurchase program that had been temporarily suspended during the height of the pandemic. With a clear focus on returning increased levels of cash to shareholders, we expect to repurchase shares at moderate levels. Lastly, we have a clear line of sight to delivering on our long-term goal of gross debt to EBITDA of two times. Now on slide 18, I'll turn it back over to Marc to summarize our key messages.
Thanks, Jim. Let me just recap what you heard over the past few minutes. We are extremely pleased to see that despite the enormous challenges of operating in a global pandemic, our teams were able to deliver on our long-term value creation targets. In North America, we delivered nearly 16% EBIT margins for the full-year, significantly above our long-term margin goal for the region of 13% plus. We restored the Europe region to profitability. In Latin America, we capitalized on strong industry demand, demonstrating the long-term margin potential in the region.
Finally, we delivered record free cash flow of $1.25 billion or 6.4% of sales, above our long-term goal of 6% of sales. Further, we demonstrated an unwavering commitment to our environmental, social, and governance priorities, resulting in significant advancements to our targets. Building on the momentum of our 2020 performance and the operational excellence of our global team, we are confident that we are well-positioned to deliver another record year in 2021. We will end our formal remarks and open it up for questions.
Your first question comes from the line of David MacGregor from Longbow Research.
Yes, good morning, everyone, and congratulations on the strong quarter and the good guide. Marc, I guess I wanted to just ask about North America and the 4% revenue growth. You indicated price mix was up close to 4%, implying flat volumes versus core six, it was up 20%. You noted that you'd be back to normal in terms of the manufacturing efficiencies by the end of the second quarter, what does the recovery path between here and there look like? What are the implications for the first quarter? I've got a follow-up question as well.
First of all, David, good morning, and thanks a lot. Stepping back on North America Q4, not just Q4, we're needless to say, exceptionally pleased with the overall financial performance in North American margins, which we achieved in light of a pandemic, which is still pretty severe. Specifically to the volumes, and the supply chain, I would say our overall volume directionally are in line in the scope of what you talked about, which also means we're kind of on a sequential base, Q3 vs Q4. We directionally kept market share, but year-over-year, we're down. It's the same down, which we had also Q3 and Q4, which is ultimately related to the supply chain constraints which we have.
With supply chain constraints, and we talked about it in the prior earnings call, they are fundamentally pandemically driven, i.e., you have absenteeism in factories, you have labor shortage, you have component shortages, which have been significant, and we have transportation bottlenecks. Yes, of course, we're improving month by month, but it's also against the demand, which is rising month by month. We're still having a fairly significant backorder situation, slightly better than at the end of Q3, but only slightly.
From everything which we see right now, that's where we, in our prepared remarks, that probably by the end of Q2, a little bit depending on the progress of the pandemic, we should be out of the constraints. It will be around us pretty much as long as COVID is around us. Be crystal clear, it impacts pretty much everyone producing in the Americas, producing in Europe. It is less, almost no impact if you produce in China or Asia.
Is the recovery path through the first half? Do we see the first quarter kind of look more like the fourth quarter, and then we see the inflection in Q2? Just how should we think about the first half?
No, David, it's not going to be an inflection point. It will be gradual improvement month by month. Actually, frankly, already in January, it's slightly getting better. February will be slightly better. The backorder situation will not be resolved in short term. It's just too big from a backorder overall perspective. Our production yield has increased a lot. We're also adding capacity. Every month, you will see improvement. Frankly, we're already seeing it in January. It will still take us time to work through it.
Okay. Well, good luck with that. My second question was just with regard to your ongoing EBIT margin guidance, where you indicated that the net cost would be 150 basis points against that RMI, raw material inflation of negative 150 basis points. I guess, just trying to get some sense from you of your confidence in that 150 basis points on net cost. I guess a third of that's the carryover. Just could you talk a little bit about your ability to just carve into costs further in 2021 and offset that raw material inflation?
Yeah.
David, why don't I start here. Marc, you can kind of follow up. I'd say, David, as you've highlighted, that 1.5%, I'd say you've got $50 million to $100 million. That is our carryover from last year. Again, we continue to implement and drive actions related to that. We'll also have some additional actions that rolled out in Q4 that we'll continue to get a benefit for this year. The second thing is, if you look across our broader production base, as we get more efficient in understanding how to deal with some of the COVID inefficiencies that have come around, that will be a help for us. Incrementally, we expect volume to be higher this year, that will help to drive additional cost savings.
Then, on top of that, within any given year, we typically look to drive a certain amount of reduction in what we'll call infrastructure and SG&A spend. So, that's probably another big portion of what comes out there. Where we start the year in terms of the cost takeout programs we've already initiated versus what we've got in the pipeline, we feel very good about that number. Additionally, as we've talked about from a manufacturing footprint, we ceased production in our Naples facility in Italy during Q4, and so we'll start to see the benefits of that also rolling in this year from a cost perspective.
Yeah. Dave, the comment I would want to add is, first of all, also coming back to last year. As you know, in last year, we significantly dialed up our cost takeouts. We started the year with a certain assumption, which we also gave you in the earnings call. Then once the pandemic hit us, we massively ramped it up to $500 million net cost takeout. We did. I would say, I know you see it, we have a track record of being able to deal with costs. Now, of course, we do know raw material is a headwind this year. We showed earlier, it's $250 million to $300 million. I think we have other tools to overcome some of these headwinds. There's carryover, there's additional measures which we're taking.
As you also know, it's not the first raw material headwind we're dealing with, and we have dealt with very successfully in the past. The other thing also in raw material, because I see in some writing or in your writing out there, people are always referring to spot prices, et cetera. Keep in mind, we are either having long-term contracts or are hedged on certain positions. I would say we're less exposed to the volatility you see in spot markets than most other players. That's a good thing, and I think that also gives us probably a higher level of confidence that's pretty much the range which we're talking about.
Your next question comes from the line of Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research.
Good morning.
Morning.
Morning, Eric.
Morning. Two things curious about. One, if you could just give a little bit more insight into what you're seeing in North American demand trends, how that behaved through 4Q. Secondly, I think you commented about gaining share in the U.S. in 2021. When, during the year, do you think your supply chain will be in a position that's effective to allow you to start to accomplish that?
Eric, let me maybe first talk about the demand trends, and maybe Jim want to cover the supply chain piece again. Eric, on the demand trends, first of all, we got to recognize in 2020, yes, you've all seen the North America industry volume was a positive. I think what most people lose sight of is the quality of the demand has changed in a positive way. We saw in particular in Q2 and beginning of Q3, you saw a lot of duress or COVID related stress purchases in the freezers, the microwaves, et cetera. That has gradually shifted more and more into the more higher mix, i.e., remodel, kitchen upgrades or rebuilding or entire home construction.
Beyond the numbers of a volume, we're really pleased with the mix, which comes with the increased volume. What it also means, we do not see the demand as, well, this is a COVID spike. Yes, there was a little bit of COVID spike. This is structurally and sustained healthy demand, which is, yes, coming to extremely strong housing trends, but it's more than the housing. It's the entire home improvement. We do not see that fundamentally changing anytime soon.
That's probably of all the global regions, I would say North America may be the region that we're most bullish about from a structural demand trend. It's very healthy. We just do not see that slowing down. I know the number which we've guided to. It might be even stronger. We're very confident about the structural sustained demand trends. Particularly as we get our supply chain constraints resolved, I think we're confident we can capitalize on these demand trends. That's on the demand side. Jim, you want to cover the supply chain?
Yeah. I'd say, Eric, from a supply chain perspective, as we talked about earlier, is one, we've seen our supply chain now being able to at least keep up with the existing levels of demand. We're beginning, as Marc talked about earlier, starting to see improvements here early in the year, in terms of our ability to start to catch up on some of that backlog. As we've talked about, by the middle of the year is when we expect to begin to have worked through that, assuming that nothing in the environment changes around us. Because most of these, as we've said, supply chain issues are COVID driven. That would put us in a place where we've really caught up not only on the demand, but on the need for higher retail inventory levels.
Then as you get into the back half of the year, you'll begin to see us build our inventory levels slightly as we return to what would be a normalized environment. We talked about during 2020 how our inventory levels came down during this time period. I think that's kind of the path we see throughout the year. By about mid-year, normalizing from a trade inventory level and then, in the third to fourth quarter, normalizing our inventories.
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Darkatsh from Raymond James.
Good morning, Marc. Good morning, Jim. I hope you both are well.
Morning, Sam.
Sam, good morning.
A couple questions, if I might. First off, with respect to the expectations for share gains in all of the regions embedded within your fiscal 2021 guidance, I'm trying to get a sense of what gives you the degree of confidence to categorically state that. I know you're going to have some easy market share comparisons, and you've noted the new product rollouts, but I'm mostly interested if the industry promotional activity resumes, like the normalized promotional activity resumes as lead times normalize, as the discretionary replacement demand continues to improve. If that were to reoccur, what gives you confidence that you would still gain share in that sort of backdrop?
Sam, let me take this one. First of all, as you rightly highlighted, I start with our new product innovations. With dishwashers, which we launched, the new top loaders, the product pipeline which we put in place is very strong, and we know from a [inaudible] or trade reaction, the perception is very well done. First of all, build on the innovation. Second of all, just do the math. As I mentioned before, our back order level is still significant. I don't need to promote back orders. I just deliver them. There's no promotional pressure on the back orders and resolving that. That on its own is a fairly sizable portion. Now, on the promotions going forward, as you know, we're not commenting on our go-forward pricing strategy.
The only thing which I want to hint to and repeat is our promotion strategy has not changed no matter what. We participate, then we can create value for us, the trade customer or the consumer, but we make a case by case decision. In general terms, knowing also there's raw material pressure, knowing that particular China transportation costs are rising rapidly, I'm not quite sure the promotion pressure will increase so rapidly as some people assume.
Yeah, I think Sam, the other thing maybe to add to that is, you kind of talked about on a global basis, and I'd say if you look at EMEA right now, the share gains we've had there, especially within some of the key countries that we do business in, we expect to continue into next year as well as our supply chain, while affected there, is not as deeply affected as we see within the U.S. Even within other large markets such as Mexico and India, we anticipate that we'll continue to gain share there. Brazil, as we've highlighted, has also been a very healthy market for us. Around the globe, we really do see multiple opportunities this year in terms of just the trends and where they are right now.
My second question, Jim, I don't know if you had this in your prepared remarks and I missed it, I apologize. Normal seasonality from an earnings delivery standpoint is roughly about 40% in the first half, 60% in the second half. I'm guessing your cost takeout rollover hits in your first half, your volume load in is going to be early on in the first half. Should we expect the normal seasonal earnings delivery to flip this year? I'm guessing the answer is yes, but I'm just trying to get a sense to what degree.
Yeah, Sam, I think you're thinking about it the right way in terms of the variables you're putting in there, and we do expect it to flip. Not to the extreme. In many of the more recent years, maybe we've been closer to 45/55. We do expect actually higher earnings in the first half of the year due to the things you highlighted, is that one is we catch up on our supply chain and the production as well as just the carryover of cost. I would just expect it to be slightly higher in the first half than it is in the second half of the year right now.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut from JP Morgan.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Morning, Michael.
First question I had was just kind of circling back to price mix, particularly in the U.S., and this has obviously been a big area of focus by investors. Following 2Q and particularly 3Q, and now in 4Q in terms of the dramatically reduced promotional backdrop helping price mix, and obviously you saw that come through in the 4Q results. How should we think about price mix as 2021 progresses, particularly in the U.S.? Marc, you talked about obviously not having to promote your backlog and, by all accounts, it appears that the demand trends that have allowed for that reduced promotional backdrop seems like will continue into the first half. If that's correct, should we be thinking about more of a flat to down price mix dynamic in the back half?
Related to this is, I heard that, if I heard right, you talked about price increases in Russia, Brazil, India, but not the U.S. despite obviously having significant raw material inflation and I was just wondering if in lieu of those, normally what we'd expect would be some price increases to offset raw materials. In effect, you're getting those because of the reduced promotional backdrop, at least in the first half.
Michael, it's Marc. Let me try to answer this one. First of all, as you know, we're not giving quarterly guides on price and mix. We gave a full-year number, which is a positive. We're confident in this one. As you point out, there are several elements which come here into play. One is you have carryover. There's a certain carryover element, which will give us quite a good momentum. Two, we have innovation, which I alluded to. Three, that's a really important part, is coming back to the demand trend.
The mix on the current demand is rich. Okay. We have mix opportunities. Fourth, yes, we had already some price increase in certain markets as we alluded to Russia, India, Brazil. We're not commenting on any planned future price increases. The only thing I want to repeat again, in the past, we've demonstrated our ability to pass on necessary cost-based price increases to the market, okay? That doesn't mean we have any precise plans, nor will we announce any precise plans.
Yeah, I think the other thing to think about, and you kind of alluded to this, is Q1 is our least promotional quarter. When you look year-over-year and even the first half of the year tends to be less promotional. While, as Marc said, there's carryover, the amount of impact is less than it would have been in the back half of the year of what we saw this year.
Okay. All right. Well, that's helpful. I appreciate it. Certainly, obviously, mix, I appreciate you highlighting that because I think that's important and maybe underappreciated to a degree. Secondly, maybe to focus a little bit on the EMEA region, with the margins there, the margin trajectory. Down a little bit sequentially in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, the guidance being for 2.5%+ in 2021. I was hoping maybe you could comment on how you feel the margin improvement trajectory is unfolding and what are the kind of markers that we should expect over the next two or three years in order to drive that margin closer to what you'd expect to be more of a normalized level?
Why don't I start with it, Michael, and then I can have Marc kind of add some comments to it. To begin with, as we look at, we're very happy with the performance that we saw in the back half of the year within EMEA and the margin improvement that we made. Now, we have to remember that EMEA typically does have their first quarter as their lowest quarter of the year. We do expect to continue to be profitable. Obviously, when you look at it sequential quarter-over-quarter, we wouldn't expect to see continued margin growth within Q1.
For the full-year, we do expect the margin growth to obviously materialize to 2.5%. A big part of what drives that is, one, you've got cost takeout actions that took place, and many of those were not implemented until the back half of the year within EMEA. Two, as I've talked about with the share gains that we've seen and the continued improvement in volumes there and demand there, we do feel very positive on that.
So both of those set us up coming out of 2021 on what I would say is a good trajectory that we feel will put us on track to our longer-term margin goals there. The bigger drivers of that will continue to be cost takeout. In addition to, with the market share gains that we're seeing right now and some of the new product introductions we're doing, we do expect to grow volumes there, and we've talked about that over the next few years. That's one of the key drivers to get those margins to a healthier, longer-term level.
Yeah, Michael, just what I want to add on Europe, a little bit echoing Jim's point, is we are actually very pleased with the 2020 full-year results in Europe. As a reminder, the pandemic from a consumer sellout hit Europe harder than it did Latin America or North America. Q2, as you all remember, was pretty devastating from a demand and also what it meant. I'm very pleased that with that huge dent in Q2, we were able to achieve on a full-year base a profit in Europe, which mid-year was a very difficult target to even think about. We achieved a full-year profit. Now, we all know achieving a profit is not a heroic achievement, but it's an important milestone.
What it basically tells me with the second half performance is we're back on track with the trajectory which we laid out in front of you, which said we want to get Europe very quickly to 2%-4%. Then while we work on the long-term strategic levers, get it on track towards the 7% or 8% operating margin target, which we talk about. Today, I would say the second half performance, and I'm not reading too much between Q3 and Q4, the second half performance gives us all the confidence we're back on this trajectory.
Your next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle from Bank of America.
Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. Forgive me if you guys have already addressed this, but just a quick one on the backlog. In 3Q, I think you said it was seven to eight weeks. That compares one to two weeks normally. Where does that stand? Or where did that stand in 4Q? Roughly, I know there'll be improvements coming through to 2Q or the end of 2Q, but how should that kind of phase through the first half of the year in terms of that time?
Yeah. Curtis, this is Jim. What I would say is, listen, it continues to be, as we've said previously in the call, it continues to be at that similar seven-to-eight week level. Right now that our production is caught up with the current levels of demand, and we haven't given a forecast or an outlook of how that's going to go, but throughout the upcoming two quarters. What we do see in terms of production improvements, we do believe we will have it resolved and have worked through it by the middle of the year. You could think about that would obviously be relatively ratable throughout the first two quarters.
Okay. I guess, just a quick follow-up. In terms of cancellations, I think you'd said no issues there. Is that still the case? Just kind of a modeling question here in terms of demand flow. At the Investor Day 2019, I think 55% was replacement, 15% new housing, 30% discretionary. Presumably, that math has changed a little bit. Could you give an update in terms of where those percentages stand now?
Curtis, it's Marc. Without getting in the details of the %, I think, let me maybe more make the qualitative comments, which also adds why we're confident, particularly in North America, on the long-term demand trends. As you know, on the replacement side, we were running against the trough of the industry in 2008 to 2010. We're now pretty much coming out of this trough. Keep also in mind, when people typically take this reference to eight to 10 years appliance, that's when you replace. Last year was a year of extreme intense use at home, which probably accelerated that replacement of the need for replacement. I would say on a fundamental replacement, we're now coming, I think soon the trough will be behind us, so that will give strength. On top of that, we saw last year, throughout the years, I talked about significantly higher discretionary demand.
First coming from really the rest and stress to really structure improvement. I think on top of that, the housing side will come stronger and stronger and stronger. The housing side, the only thing why you probably don't see extreme numbers in short term is it's housing supply constraints, okay? You saw housing starts 1.7 million or 1.667 in December. That is a promising sign, and it's been the highest in a long time. Still far away from where we believe it should be. It should be around 2 million housing starts. That is not yet fully in the numbers. Again, these are all the data points which give us the high degree of confidence in the structural demand improvements.
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I appreciate the color so far. Marc, I share the overall enthusiasm around home improvement spend and what that can do for long-term appliance demand. I guess I'm trying to think more about kind of cadence and to the point of some of the replacement cycle potentially got accelerated. For all the comments around potential for structural shifts in stay at home, there's also viewpoints out there about this kind of roaring '20s post-vaccine distribution and potentially some shift in pent-up demand towards restaurant dining and dining away from home in general. Again, appreciating the favorable overall construct, to what extent does that play into your view on cadence for demand for this year, especially later in 2021?
Michael, first of all, you hit already all the points which I would have answered. Again, it comes back to the fundamental confidence in consumer demand. First of all, in macro scheme, of course, there's uncertainty. There's uncertainty every year around what happens with raw material, currency, et cetera. I think this year, and that's different from the last three years, we have a high degree of confidence in structural demand trends, and that's just real. Okay. It's the housing side, it's the home improvement side. The one thing which I really want to emphasize, which sometimes outside observers get wrong, is everybody thinks, well, post-COVID, everything will go back to where it used to be.
It won't. First of all, COVID will be around as longer than we want it to be. Second of all, a consumer who has been more than one year essentially at home will not change behavior overnight. Consumer mind is not a flash memory which you just erase. That behavioral trend is not going to go away, and also in the context of how people talk about future work, you should assume that going forward, the average consumer spends more time at home than before. It's just going to be that way. What it leads to is a fundamental reorientation of the consumer towards the house, the purpose of the house, how I live in the house, and how much money I invest in the house.
Frankly, some people refer to us as Whirlpool, a housing play. I wouldn't even say it's a housing. We're a home play. I don't care. Well, I do care, but if you improve your home, it will benefit us. If you upgrade the kitchen, it will benefit us. If you build a new house, it benefits us. There's multiple trends which are all ultimately coming from a consumer reorientation to the home, which really play in our favor.
Got it. Just a quick follow-up to that, and I think it kind of plays into an earlier question around seasonality of earnings. Based on that answer, we shouldn't expect that within your guidance, there's necessarily a huge spread in your growth expectations for first half versus second half, i.e., not some up high single digits in certain parts of the first half of the year and then flat to down in the second half of the year?
No, Michael, this is Jim. You shouldn't assume that there's some high first half. Now, what you should assume within there is think about when you're looking year-over-year, you're going to see the first half of the year just being stronger because around the globe, you had numerous closures within various countries that would have impacted, obviously, our shipments and our sales. We will show stronger year-over-year growth, but when you think about it, starting from Q3 of this year and on through Q4 of next year, quarter-over-quarter growth won't be anywhere near as dramatic as it was this year.
Yeah. Michael, just to add to this one, as Jim highlights an important point, this will be a year where the baseline comparisons are just a little bit misleading because I mean, we all know April, May. The year-over-year comparisons just will not make a whole lot of sense. I think you should particularly look at the sequential, the run rates, and I think that's where you need to be looking at. With that in mind, you see a lot less seasonal swings this year. We will have a very balanced year. Yes, we'll have a very strong first half, but frankly, also the second half will be strong. I would say you see much more balanced dispersion of earnings throughout the year. That's a good thing. It's just the baseline comparisons will be a little bit misleading.
Your next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.
Thank you. Good morning.
Morning.
Good morning.
My first question is focusing on capital allocation. You mentioned that you are modestly resuming your share buyback activity this year. I believe in that past, when you use that language, it kind of refers to a $200 to maybe $300 million range. Is that how we should be thinking about it this year? Any thoughts in terms of the cadence there and kind of your appetite to be buying the stock back?
Well, Susan, this is Jim. Obviously, in the past, we haven't given specific guidance on the amount or the cadence that we'll do it within the year. What we always have said is, one, we at least intend to buy back any dilution that comes through any of our executive compensation programs or other things. That's kind of the minimum that we look at. Again, when we say a moderate amount, we're also going to keep an eye on what the situation is around us and globally. We feel very confident as we've talked about our balance sheet is in a very strong position. Also we want to be cautious throughout the year just with any of the unknowns that could come. I think you should think about it being, as I said, at a minimum on that lower level that at least eliminates any dilution that could occur.
Okay. All right. That's helpful. My second question is turning to Latin America. You had another quarter with a really nice margin in that region. Can you maybe just talk to kind of the sustainability of that, a little bit of what's going on on the ground there? I know you mentioned that you're putting some price increases through in Brazil. Just any color on that part of the world?
Yes. Susan, I would read right now, the second half performance in Latin America, it's not only Brazil, we also had Mexico, very strong business in the upper part, was very impressive. The way I read it is, this is a demonstration of what this region can deliver. There are, of course, crazy swings coming from currency, and you all have seen what the Brazilian real does, and Mexican peso has now strengthened recently a little bit. I would say that performance is even more impressive knowing how much currency losses we had, in particular in Brazil. The way I would look at it going forward, that region is absolutely [inaudible] from structural perspective, which is able to deliver 8%-10%, and right now we guided 7% plus, and we're pretty confident. I would also emphasize we're confident on plus.
Our Latin America business is very well-run business, operating very strong. We have exceptionally strong brands. The demand trends, and that probably has been really positive surprise, held up pretty strong in Latin America, and I would even argue last year was the least impacted from the demand trends of all regions, which is largely a result of the COVID stimulus in the respective countries. We see that continuing. The demand holds up strong. Of course, we're observing currency fluctuations. We're observing raw material increases, which were particularly impactful in Latin America. Again, coming from the second half of last year, I'm very encouraged by what our Latin America business can deliver.
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten from Credit Suisse.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. You guys had outlined industry growth for North America of about 4%-6%, yet you still will have some capacity constraints in the first half. Maybe if you could walk us through Whirlpool's ability to grow with the market next year, given some of the constraints in the first half.
Yeah, Adam, this is Jim. As we kind of talked about here is, one, we believe and we know that our supply chain has kind of caught up with where the demand levels are. Right now it's just working through a backlog, and if you think about last year, that backlog is what we built. As Marc talked about earlier, that was due to disruptions in our supply chain that were a result of COVID, and whether it was impacts at our suppliers or our own factories. We're confident right now that we're able to keep up pace with the industry and where it is. Again, for us, we see it as more of a positive as we begin to work that backlog down throughout the year.
Okay. Got it. Thanks. Then in the presentation, you noted the potential for opportunistic M&A. Maybe if you could kind of give us a sense for what that may entail. Would it be geographic based? Could it be new product categories? Maybe just a little bit more color.
Yeah. Adam, this is Jim again. As we've talked about at our various Investor Days over recent years, is we look in all those areas, and the first thing we really look to do is see, is it value creating? Is it something that we think can be earnings accretive, and do we have the management capacity to do it? We don't limit it to any specific thing. Again, we're continuously looking at product expansion within the portfolio we have or on top of the portfolio we have, as well as geographic expansion.
One of the things that we had talked about in recent years is that we believe that the first thing we needed to do was focus on some of the existing acquisitions that we did over the prior years, whether they be in Asia or they be in EMEA, and we feel very good with where those are right now. We'll continue to look, and we always are looking, but there's nothing specific that we would highlight outside of what we've talked about in our investor days.
Your next question comes from the line of Ken Zener.
Good morning, everybody.
Morning. Morning, Ken.
What a year. Very well done. With a lot of this, what you would focus on and mix and perhaps structural changes due to accelerated cycle uses. Could you just expand on your North America margin guidance of 15% in the context of lower seasonality, and sequentiality as opposed to year-over-year? I guess what I'm looking at is, just at the average margin swing in North America in 2018 and 2019, so the quarters versus the average, and it was only about 50 basis points. Kind of surprised me, but not really considering how you guys are executing better. Is that a reasonable way to think about margin volatility, in 2021, is that it's going to kind of be off the average by maybe that much each quarter, given your comments around seasonality lacking?
Yeah. Ken, this is Jim. I think the best way to think about it is that our North America margins will be relatively similar to our overall seasonality of the business that we've talked about, because just think of the percentage that they are of our overall business and our overall profits.
Right.
That's obviously one of the bigger drivers there. Two is, as we've talked about, as we look towards the year, we do believe in terms of volume and demand, the front half of the year being strong as we work through some of the backlog, that will help normalize our business on a full-year basis, and especially within North America. Additionally, as we've said, we had more of the cost savings there within probably starting in the second quarter through the 4th quarter. The dispersion of additional cost savings isn't as big in North America as it might be in the rest of the globe. I think, yeah, thinking about it that way is probably correct.
Okay. It kind of surprised me that you had such low EBIT volatility in 2018 and 2019 pre-COVID-19. Just switching across the continent. I was really surprised. Investor Day, I think when you guys did the Investor Day, FY 2021 was when you were supposed to earn $21, is my memory. Dollars at the high end is off, but it's been quite a ride. EMEA, if you're looking at 2.5% margin, it really seems like your a market share has improved. I know you guys have been really focused on delivering positive EBIT, but it seems like you must have gained a lot of share.
Perhaps because it's a country-by-country event and you guys really lost a lot of floor space, and usually it took you a while to get back in. I know you had success at IKEA, but what really happened? Did you guys just have better throughput, so people accepted your product, perhaps ahead of your expectations in terms of share gains? Because it seems like you might have actually leapfrogged where you were pre-COVID in terms of your expectations in Europe.
Ken, it's Marc. First of all, it is true that towards the back half of last year, we started structurally gaining share back, okay? As you also know, there is no European market, there's a lot of countries, and I'm particularly pleased that in several of our key countries, such as U.K., Italy, but also France and now also lately Russia, we expanded our share position, which I think ultimately is a result of we have strong products, strong placement, and very good execution. I think it's a combination of all that. I also want to be very clear, we are not yet back to the level where I would expect us to be from a share perspective. I think we're still quite a bit of a room to grow.
You also know strategically, our particular focus is on the kitchen business, where it naturally takes a little bit longer to gain back the share, and that remains our focus. I would say, I would read the share gains. Yes, we're proud, promising sign, but we're not done. With that in mind, and also given that we're coming almost back to the top of the hour, this was the last question. Before you all check out and hang up and get a new keyboard, let me just pass on one important last message. Just stay with me another one or two minutes. When I reflect on your questions, a lot of them were what happens next quarter, two quarters down the road, supply chain seasonality. They were short-term, and maybe rightfully, and that's what you also obviously talk about.
I would also strongly encourage you zoom out. What I mean with that, look at the long-term, look at the fundamentals. Last year has been the third year in a row where we delivered all-time record EPS. We just guided towards a fourth year in a row. Four years in a row doesn't make it a one-time wonder. We're not a COVID play. This is a structural improvement and a different company. I know Ken, you just highlighted what we promised several years ago. We are delivering towards our long-term shareholder targets, and I'm very pleased.
Along the way, you guys had some questions. We are delivering. We are guiding $19-$20. Beyond, of course, the short-term challenges, I think you should also give us some credit that we demonstrated sustainability to deal with whatever is thrown at us. It's three years in a row now, four years in a row. That is an exceptionally strong long-term fundamental trend, and I think it is fair to say that Whirlpool today is a very different company than it was 10 years ago. With that in mind, thanks for listening to us, and have a wonderful day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We thank you again for your participation. You may now all disconnect.