Okay. Good afternoon. Welcome to the WillScot Mobile Mini 2021 Investor Day. On behalf of the entire leadership team, thank you all for being here. We also appreciate those of you who are following us via the webcast and appreciate your time and your interest in our company. I'm Nick Girardi. I'm responsible for the investor relations effort here at WillScot Mobile Mini. There are no scheduled fire alarms today, so if the alarms go off, it is real. There is a fire escape in the hallway if you go out this door and on the right. The webcast will be available on our website, and later on, we'll post the transcript from today's presentations. Included here is our safe harbor statement. We'll be making forward-looking statements today, and the results will probably be different.
Factors that could cause the results to be different are included here as well as in our SEC filings. We encourage you to review these carefully. Today's agenda will start with a review of our strategy by Bradley Soultz. Timothy D. Boswell will go through our growth initiatives for the next three-five years. We'll take a quick break, and then Graeme Parkes will go over technology, Hezron Timothy Lopez and Jamie Bohan will discuss our ESG initiatives, and Timothy D. Boswell will go over our financial outlook. After that, we'll open the floor for questions. We ask that you save your questions until after the presentation. Thank you for coming, and we appreciate your interest in WillScot Mobile Mini. We'll now go to a short video followed by Bradley's opening remarks.
As the industry leader in modular space and storage, we've been hard at work building our capabilities, increasing our scope, diversifying our talents, expanding our offering, accelerating our growth, becoming more capable, more agile, more flexible, more prominent. Now, everything's in place. We have expert teams, unrivaled product range, groundbreaking solutions, and inspired leadership to command the market everywhere we operate. Like never before, we are built for growth. We are executing our strategy from a commanding position of strength, and we are making life easier for our customers, so they can operate faster, safer, and more efficiently than ever before. With superior scope and scale, the most comprehensive fleet in the industry, we're everywhere our customers are, delivering the most flexible and innovative turnkey solutions. WillScot Mobile Mini goes beyond just renting workspace.
We outfit our units with all the essentials customers need to make their space safe, comfortable, and productive from day one, delivering more value to them and more opportunity for us. We're a pioneer of turnkey space and storage solutions, reusing and refurbishing our units to achieve asset lifespans that exceed well over 30 years. Customers in construction, manufacturing, professional services, healthcare, education, entertainment, retail, energy, and more rely on us every day because we help them succeed in their projects at every stage. We're the first ones on the project and the last ones to leave. We're committed to service. We are leaders. That's why when over 85,000 customers need flexible workspace and storage solutions, they leave nothing to chance. They call WillScot Mobile Mini. They count on us to deliver value for customers, value for our employees and company, value for shareholders.
We are ready to work.
All right. Hello, and welcome everyone to WillScot Mobile Mini's inaugural Investor Day. First, I just wanted to extend a quick thank you to Nick, Tammy, Cathy, Ben, Scott, and all the colleagues here at Nasdaq that helped us pull this off, and our local crew that helped set up the buildings outside. Team led by Mike Bibby. Hope you guys will enjoy the fruits of their work. We're delighted to host this event in person. Happy to see lots of new faces and many faces, frankly we haven't seen since March of 2020, which was when we announced this transformational merger with Mobile Mini. Just a quick highlight as to who's joining.
While most of you know Timothy and Nick and I well, one of our primary objectives here was to help introduce you to the broader team that's been executing flawlessly and driving this growth trajectory. In addition to Timothy D. Boswell and I, we have Graeme Parkes , Hezron Timothy Lopez , and Jamie Bohan presenting, as well as several others, as a cross-section of our field and executive leadership team in the back of the room. Graeme quickly is our CIO. He knows the business top to bottom, all segments, and he's passionate about making sure technology is the underpinning of everything we do. It's driving our growth and a laser focus on making sure we are the best and easiest to do business with.
Graeme's a native of South Africa, and prior to joining Mobile Mini, had extensive experience ranging from mining to manufacturing in all environments from B2B to B2C. Hezron Timothy Lopez is our Chief Human Resource Officer, including direct oversight for ESG. Hezron joined WillScot in 2019 as our GC. He took over as the newly created CHRO role at the time of the merger. Hezron's unique experience spans experiences at Kohler, A. O. Smith, and Herman Miller. I think it's where he grew a passion for furniture.
Hezron was born in Belize, grew up in the U.S., and has since become a true global citizen personally and professionally. Given the substantial step up in scale, this is one great indication of how we can now afford the opportunity to really build a powerful legacy infrastructure in the team. He really built his team from the ground up, and he absolutely built a powerhouse of a team. Then Jamie Bohan is a prime example of a powerhouse new colleague. Jamie joined us early 2021 as VP of ESG. Prior to joining, Jamie had extensive marketing, product development, technology, and sustainability experiences at Honeywell and Republic Services. As you'll see today, Jamie's combined passion, education, and experience set makes her the perfect architect of our ESG journey.
Now, in the interest of time, I'm not gonna individually introduce the cross-section of our executive field and functional leadership that's joined us today. I might encourage you to speak with them at the breaks, as many of you already have, during the reception in this adjacent room afterwards. Please do visit our fabulous FLEX unit out front, if you haven't had the chance already. Now, this team, you know, frankly, makes everything happen and makes my life quite easy. There's not much I lose sleep about. It's a question most of you ask me often, "What causes you to lose sleep?" That frankly, there's not much, given the unique business model and certainly with this team at the helm.
Beyond being clear leaders within the storage and modular space sector, the team's collective experience set spans commercial real estate, waste, uniform services, car rental, retail, packaging, automotive, military, to name a few. This breadth and depth of talent is certainly unique and hands down the best team I've ever had the opportunity to collaborate with. While our collective history spans over eight decades, the two companies and over 75 legacy acquisitions, WillScot and Mobile Mini emerged as the undisputed leaders of turnkey space and storage solutions, respectively. The 2020 merger of these two great and perfectly complementary companies continues to unlock potential value creation even above that which we expected initially. When we combined WillScot and Mobile Mini, our initial internal motto was stronger together. That hypothesis has been absolutely validated and is evident in our results.
This is a textbook case of one plus one equals much, much more than two, and simply marks another chapter in our success of combining and integrating great businesses. While the common denominator across this history are underlying long life assets coupled with long lease durations, but it really takes the right strategy, the right team, technology, and flawless execution to truly compound value creation as we have. As we've scaled and evolved, integrating business has become systematic and frequent to the point that it's now a normal course. As a note, following the recent successful integration of the WillScot business onto the Mobile Mini SAP platform in just the second quarter, we've already acquired four smaller companies. We integrate these seamlessly with a laser focus on extending our value prop to both legacy and acquired customers.
Our M&A pipeline is robust and looking forward, we're uniquely positioned to continue to compound robust organic growth with highly accretive M&A. Now, what's a presentation without a Venn diagram, right? Joking aside, it's a great way to visualize our reality. We are a category of one. We can be as big or as small as we want. The category of one is centered at the intersection of many large and dynamic industries, all of which we participate in some way or some fashion. Our estimated $10 billion core market that sits at the center includes not only the core assets, but the most relevant ancillary services, products, managed services, and the associated complex logistics to take care of our customers.
The key point is we have a truly unique set of capabilities and an entrepreneurial history that shows we'll identify and pursue growth that makes sense, and we frankly see a vast landscape. Not only do the other large dynamic industries provide market opportunities, they're also where we search for best practices, technology, and talent. If you take note of the cross-section of the team we have here today, I think it's a perfect case in point. Our trajectory is not, nor will it be limited or defined by any end market. This slide is pretty sentimental to me. An important WillScot house rule is, say what you'll do and then do what you say.
Upon remarketing the company, the public markets in 2017, we laid out a recipe that was going to drive substantial shareholder value creation, underpinned by five specific ambitious commitments. While we had high confidence in delivering, it took us a bit to prove to everyone that we do what we say. All five of these we've executed flawlessly. First, we committed to continue the double-digit rate growth organically. Check. Second, we committed to achieve VAPS penetration of $400 per unit per month. Right. We see significant further upside to the $400. We're basically running at those levels now on new units delivered, and we're here to reset that milestone and several others. Third, we committed to further accelerate the doubling of the company with accretive M&A, following and focusing initially on the modular space sector. Check.
We committed to develop and deploy idiosyncratic growth levers that together would allow us to grow through a market shock. We were one of the few industrial companies that grow EBITDA through 2020. All the while, we also closed transformational merger, planned for the integration, and we maintained guidance throughout the journey. Call that a double check. Finally, we committed to establish scale and storage either organically or through M&A. While WillScot's legacy storage fleet was subscale, we love the underlying unit economics and believe that 80% of our customers require both modular and storage solutions. In 2020, we partnered with Mobile Mini, the undisputed leader in storage. Another double check. This recipe of commitments from approximately four years ago has resulted in revenue up 4x, adjusted EBITDA up about 6x, with over 1,000 BPS of margin expansion.
Market cap expansion of 10x, and robust and expanding free cash flow margins of approximately 20%. We said what we would do, we did it and more. Now, our scale is our key comparative advantage. Just a few fun facts. Our business model is underpinned by best-of-breed technology platform, 4,300 space and storage experts, a small cross-section you'll meet today. We serve over 85,000 customers through a branch network of about 275 locations, covering all the major MSAs, Mexico, U.S., Canada, and the U.K. No single customer is more than $1 million of our annualized revenues, such that the customer base is highly fragmented. Most operate in a single MSA or perhaps only a cluster of one or two.
We operate a $3 billion net book value rental fleet comprised of 375,000 assets that are end-market agnostic. Altogether, this is over 120 million sq ft, which is equivalent to 44 Empire State Buildings that we can aggregate or disaggregate, relocate and reuse wherever our customers' opportunities take them. Every one of these 275 branches is not only equipped to properly maintain, but also fully refurbish our assets and further extending their long, useful lives. Beyond our unique scale of our fleet, one third of our net book value is comprised of assets that can be complex together to form space solution measured in tens of thousands of sq ft. I'll share some of these examples of this unique capability in a moment. Finally, from a comparative perspective, we're about 5x our next largest regional competitor.
Our unique and ever-expanding value proposition creates a win-win for our customers from the southern region of Mexico north to Alaska and from Hawaii east to London. Now we've taken a major customer inconvenience and created our most powerful organic growth lever. Aside from M&A, VAPS continues to be the fastest-growing part of the portfolio and that which delivers the highest returns. While our primary focus is on providing turnkey, ready-to-work modular space and storage solutions, we're uniquely positioned to further extend this proposition by bundling additional managed services. Our total space solutions are underpinned by this unrivaled team and technology that, as you'll see more of, and very unique logistics services.
Our technology platform is currently being further tuned to harvest the relevant historical customer information that will further accelerate our path to providing those solutions in every case, which is another massive win for our customers, and to be able to allow them to focus on safely and productively getting on with their own mission. Now I'll walk you through just a quick illustration of the life cycle of a project. We start with an empty pallet. First up, ground-level office at the entrance for security while the primary site's graded, followed by a ready-to-work modular office command center. Next, we'll bring in the storage solutions. We estimate that three storage units are required for roughly every one modular unit. Further enhance these with managed services.
While typically we're only required to visit a project once at the start and approximately three years later at the end of the project, we're uniquely equipped to service and scale space and storage solutions up and down over the life of the project. Finally, we were first on and nearly last off, leaving no residual footprint. Our solutions are typically only 50 BPS of the customer's overall project cost. Their primary purchase criteria is to have the right solution wherever and whenever they require it. I'll walk you through a few customer examples. Complexity is our friend and is the key differentiator given our broad geographic reach and the flexible and market-agnostic solutions we provide. In this example, JE Dunn needed nearly 8,000 sq ft on their project site with minimal footprint for just over 30 months.
For less than $5 per sq ft per month, we provided the perfect solution. While adjacent commercial office spa-space can always be an option, providing this unique cost-effective solution maximized the safe and efficiency of their employees. This example, we're uniquely positioned to provide temporary event and space solutions any weekend, anywhere, ranging from small to tens of thousands sq ft. In this example, we supported 57 PGA events all over the U.S. Typical uses will include security, ticket booths, broadcast centers, player comfort, scoring, event governance, and even health and safety and hospitality of attendees. You can drop PGA from this list, replace it with racing, tennis, NASCAR, concerts, collegiate and professional playoffs, and on and on. In this example, we provided Facebook in a remote location in Iowa with nearly 50,000 sq ft of space solutions.
We mobilized from all over the U.S. and we're uniquely positioned to facilitate this in any geography in which we operate. The space can be used to support the construction of a permanent facility, but also the runoff and staging of equipment that will ultimately outfit the permanent facility. We've supplied the same customer with similar solutions in Nebraska and Utah, and again, drop Facebook and insert almost any tech firm anywhere. Often, where one goes, others follow. We can simply relocate these solutions from customer to customer at the same geography for projects that will span years. You can also replace data center and insert swing space for manufacturing, R&D, warehousing, etc. These are examples of some of the fastest-growing sub-sectors within the end markets we serve. We're also uniquely positioned to service the major retailers.
Broader retail, warehouse, and distribution has been a stable sector for us for years, despite ever-evolving e-commerce needs, shifts in customer shopping and store experience expectation, supply chains that are dynamic and changing daily, as well as population ebb and flows from suburbia and from MSA to MSA. Change is our friend. This complexity requires flexibility more than ever before. This is our wheelhouse. In this example, the orange dots represent a snapshot of nearly 2,000 units on rent we have with Target as of the end of August, which altogether is providing them nearly half a million sq ft of swing warehouse space. If a store needs 1 unit tomorrow or 20 to show up in a single day, our unparalleled fleet and logistics services can support that need. Again, drop the name Target, insert Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, Dollar Chains.
Almost any non-mall-based major retailer is an important and significant customer of ours. As an example of the evolution, five years ago, Amazon was hardly on our register. It's now one of our top retail customers. As a final customer example, this UCSD engagement provides for a perfect ESG commercial. UCSD engaged Kitchell for the construction of a Ground-up Theater District Living, learning neighborhood. Kitchell found our FLEX to be the perfect and likely only viable multi-year space solution for their requirement to house 18,000 sq ft without harming protected historic site. Jamie will walk you through this in a bit more in a few moments. Oftentimes, the space needs evolve over the life cycle of the project.
We can flex the space by growing multi-story or expanding or contracting the footprint as needed over the cycle of the project. When construction of this living, learning neighborhood is complete in a few years, we'll be gone as quickly as we came. Zero residual impact. Starting to summarize, the left of this graph will be familiar to those of you that are close to our case. It's consistently highlighted the eight attributes, largely idiosyncratic, that underpin our platform. Our strategy is to safely and frugally grow unit lease revenues, that's volume and rate, provide every solution turnkey or ready to work, and delight our customers. This has been our strategy for five years. It'll be our strategy for the next five years. No change.
We're effectively reloading and replenishing and upgrading the recipe that we laid out in 2017 for the next several years of our journey. Given the predictability of our business model, we have the luxury of being able to look further afield such that we now have very clear line of sight to several milestones. First of which is $1 billion of EBITDA, right, with significant upside beyond that. The second is 45% EBITDA margins, 15% returns on capital, $650 million of free cash flow, annualized, and $4 of free cash flow per share. We are a category of one. Now, our portfolio growth levers in aggregate could actually yield $1 billion of annualized EBITDA growth without assuming any sizable M&A. There's no new drivers here. We simply scaled and tuned the proven levers and expanded them across both modular and storage segments.
Together, these provide for great optionality. Don't get hung up on any one lever. Some will exceed expectation, and some will fall short. That's the power of the portfolio, and I'm confident we'll continue the track record with this team of flawless execution. Growing our LTM EBITDA from currently just over $700 million to the new milestone of $1 billion is not an if, it's simply when. Beyond achieving the new EBITDA milestone in a few years, as I mentioned, this portfolio of levers provide years of continued shareholder value creation. Bringing it back to the cash, our capital deployment strategy remains unchanged, right? It engenders an all of the above optionality. We're on track to achieve the $500 million free cash flow milestone we established early in March 2020 as we announced the merger with Mobile Mini.
Despite the unprecedented shock from the pandemic, we've never wavered from that commitment. As we eclipse that milestone, free cash flow continues to quite naturally expand given the aforementioned growth levers. This platform is a cash flow machine. Given the robust free cash flow, the pace at which we deliver to 3.0 to 3 turns, which is the bottom end of our target range, is fully in our control. Assuming we then hold leverage to 3.0 and we achieve a run rate of $650 million of free cash flow, the business will have yielded between $5 billion and $6 billion of cumulative capital for which we'll deploy. Timothy's gonna walk you through a couple illustrative examples highlighting this potential in a moment. Again, our capital deployment strategy is not changed.
We'll continue to fund abundant organic growth, pursue smart M&A, but the simple fact is we have billions of surplus capital to deploy with full optionality. My last slide here in summary before I hand it over, we have a high degree of conviction in achieving and eclipsing the new billion-dollar EBITDA milestone. Growth levers are all in our control. We've driven them before, and we have the team that's demonstrated flawless execution. Technology is a massive comparative advantage, which Graeme will walk you through. It underpins everything we do. We've assembled a team as a testament to their track record. We're driving nearly 6x EBITDA growth in only four years. Our circular business model is already extremely environmentally friendly.
As we build upon this, our team and our core values, our ESG journey will further provide the accelerant to help us scale our human capital commensurate with our growth trajectory. Our trajectory has frankly been quite predictable and has been quite steep. With that, I'll turn it over to Timothy, our President and CFO, to expand upon the growth drivers.
Good afternoon, folks. One of you asked me earlier if I'd ever actually met any of these shareholders in person before. There are some new faces out there, which is great, but there are also quite a few that I've known for a long time and some old friends among them. I'd say that developing these relationships has been one of the most gratifying parts of the last four years, other than watching our team out in the field slowly dominate the industry that we serve. Great to see everybody here. Thank you for coming. Brad, as always, has done a nice job summarizing how we got here and where we're headed. The destination is somewhere beyond $1 billion of EBITDA, and it's not really a question of if we get there or even really how.
It's just a matter of when and by how far we eclipse that milestone. I've said many times that the most underappreciated aspect of this business is the forward visibility that we have into our revenue streams, and that's driven by the diversification of our end markets that we serve, as well as the stability of our three-year lease durations. Today, we're gonna talk about the forward visibility that we have into growth. We have this visibility today because over the last 12 months, we've diligently planned and resourced a series of growth drivers that we think can propel the business for years to come. Not next year or 2023, but three, five, seven years into the future based on the forward visibility that we have. These initiatives, top to bottom, are all already in motion across our branch network.
I love this portfolio for a lot of reasons. First, each of the five initiatives that we'll talk about is highly credible. In every case, we've executed these before, and we have solid, tangible results to point to as evidence of our competence and capability. Second, we have optionality. We can afford to be successful in some of these and then fall short in others and still eclipse the milestones that we're talking about. Thirdly, we've got a nice balance in the portfolio, not just across modular and storage, but from a timing perspective. Some of these are immediate tailwinds that will drive the business next quarter and next year. There are other initiatives that we're putting in place that are gonna start driving the business in 2023 and beyond.
We're quite comfortable talking that far out into the future. Never in my career have I been in a position with this many ways to win, and I frankly haven't encountered a business model with this level of forward visibility. Over the next 40 minutes or so, we're gonna dig into each of these five categories. We're gonna talk about the relative magnitude of each opportunity. You can kinda see that here on the page. We're gonna talk timing. Again, some are immediate tailwinds, and some are longer term in nature. We're gonna tell you why each of these is achievable and why our team is so confident. First, a few points at a high level.
If you add up the ranges on the left-hand side of the page, you get somewhere between $450 million and $850 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA growth. These opportunities are large in magnitude and very long in duration. We've also given you a rough estimate of how they break down among modular in blue and storage in the light blue. We've got two good optionality across two uniquely attractive asset classes. Thirdly, we do manage this a bit like a venture portfolio. We identify opportunities with attractive risk-return profiles. We prioritize and allocate human and financial capital behind them. We develop execution plans, and then we run aggressively after them. It is truly a portfolio, right? We'll win some, we'll lose some.
Some may surprise us with upside, others may fall short of expectations. The point is that in aggregate, there are enough tailwinds here to take the business to a very exciting place. It's not just appropriate to take the midpoint of each one as we'll go through these. We'll say where we've got, you know, higher degrees of confidence than maybe other opportunities that are earlier stage in nature. The point is, in aggregate, you've got pretty good line of sight at the lower end of the range to around half a billion dollars of potential growth and meaningful upside beyond that, particularly if you extend your horizon out beyond five years or start including additional M&A. We'll talk about how M&A works into this plan. It's always been part of the strategy and always will be. The growth algorithm is not new.
There's nothing new on this page. We've been repeating the strategy, as Bradley said, for five years. We'll repeat it for a long time to come. With that, we're gonna dive into each one of these, spend a little time, starting with value-added products. Value-added products have obviously been the kind of most prominent growth driver in our modular business for almost a decade now. I think people probably don't realize just how long some of these tailwinds have been in play, and we're gonna reinforce that 'cause we don't see them slowing down anytime soon, and some like VAPS are accelerating. When we're talking about VAPS in modular, we're talking about everything that you see on the page, right? so what do you see? You see customers being productive. You see a safe and comfortable and functional workspace.
You know, our team looks at this and sees operational complexity that's very difficult for our competition to replicate. You all got screened down in the middle of Times Square in a building that we dropped off overnight. It'll be gone by 11:59 P.M. this evening. There's probably nobody else in the United States that can do that. What I also see in this picture is over $1,500 of recurring monthly rental revenue coming from value-added products. Given this is a double-wide unit, divide that by two, that's $750 bucks per unit per month. As we talked about on the Q3 call on Friday, the overall portfolio is billing about $230 per unit per month. I'd say we're in about the third inning of this ballgame in North American Modular.
Our track record shows pretty clearly how this game is gonna unfold because it's been unfolding steadily and predictably for nine years. Those of you whom we first met in the summer of 2017, we told you that our most recently delivered contracts were billing about $176 per unit per month. This would have been around Q2 of 2017 when the portfolio was at $115. New contracts were going out at $176. Then what do you know is the portfolio turns over three years later in Q3 of 2020, you're billing $174 across the entire portfolio. This is not a miracle. This is the visibility that you have because of the lease duration in our business. What else have we done over this period?
Again, starting back in 2012, VAPS revenue per unit on rent per month has increased at a 20% CAGR for nine years. The volume of units on rent over that period has more than doubled, so these solutions resonate in every corner of the end markets that we serve. The quarterly revenue from VAPS is up tenfold over this period from $6 million to almost $60 million, and it's arguably accelerating. Our results in Q3 were up 30% year-over-year. This is a perfect example in our business of how the combination of volume times price times value-added products comes in and compounds in an extremely powerful way. How is it possible that value-added products in modular is actually accelerating today?
Many of you have seen me draw this chart on a legal pad on a Zoom call, and then Nick was very kind to actually make it pretty on a slide for us today. The bottom left shows VAPS monthly rent per unit delivered by our sales reps. You know, every column here is a sales rep. Every color is a different product within the category back in 2015. In 2015, on average, the portfolio where we were delivering units around $200 per unit per month, right? But there's a lot of variability in the distribution, and you had clear line of sight to sales reps who were delivering well north of $400 per unit per month. Guess where we set the targets for the sales force going forward, right?
400 per unit per month. You fast-forward to 2021 on the right-hand side of the page. This is our distribution today. We're pretty darn close to $400 per unit per month on our most recent deliveries. Again, the portfolio is only at 230, so there's a massive spread there. You've got clear social proof that the top performers in the sales force are well north of $600. That, to our team, means there's opportunity and upside here. As you saw on the previous chart on slide 31, you know, a fully penetrated unit could support over $750 per unit per month of opportunity. Again, third inning of the ballgame.
How do we actually manage the team to drive this type of incremental performance north of $600 per unit per month in North America Modular? Well, one of the reasons I like the category is you've got multiple ways to win within the category itself, right? You've got increased penetration opportunities. This has always been the lowest hanging fruit just to get more that long tail of sales reps, get that up to kind of the average or above average levels. That'll drive revenue growth. You've got rate optimization opportunities. We've actually been a little looser in terms of how we manage pricing just because the incremental ROI is so compelling, we can afford to be a little bit more relaxed there. But it is an opportunity longer term for both revenue and margin improvement.
New product introductions, like we've been pretty deliberate in terms of the cadence of rolling out, new products. We rolled out data packages, and we rolled out cubicle packages, last year. It's always a balancing act relative to penetration with the offering that we already have. Operationally, Graeme will talk about SAP, and virtually overnight, we moved the WillScot business into a real-time, live, perpetual inventory management system. There's leakage from a margin perspective and return on capital perspective, in the system today, which we can recoup as we get more sophisticated from an inventory management perspective. It's not just one lever that we're using to pull value-added products and services growth or to drive it. It's multiple levers, and you can afford to win some, and you can afford to lose some.
If we're successful in driving our sales force north of $600 per unit per month, the payoff is massive, and it represents $370 million of predictable organic revenue growth over a three-five year period. You've all seen these charts before. You've all done the math before. It's just that the numbers just keep getting bigger and bigger. Again, in Q3, overall portfolio billed $231 per unit per month. Just to get to where the sales force is delivering today, you know, just under $400, you've got about $150 million of incremental revenue convergence just from that dynamic alone, and we're already achieving those levels. If we're then, you know, and that could take three years to get to that point.
Over the course of that three-year period, maybe hopefully even sooner if we're successful in getting the sales reps up to $600, you then have another $220 million of incremental organic revenue growth at roughly 75% flow through to EBITDA. Roughly 12-month cash-on-cash payback, highest return on capital category in the portfolio. We attach a very high degree of probability to these, and when you look at, you know, if we just converge to where we're already delivering today, or if we converge to $600 over time, that's roughly $100 million-$280 million of organic adjusted EBITDA growth in North America Modular alone. Wait, there's more. We just rolled out value-added products for ground-level offices.
The exact same playbook that applies to the North America Modular segment applies to our ground-level office product that operates under the Mobile Mini brand. What does a turnkey, ready-to-work ground-level office look like? It looks no different than a turnkey, ready-to-work modular building. We have the exact same product category in the legacy WillScot's business. We call them container offices. We just have a lot more of them, and they're growing more rapidly under our Mobile Mini brand. We're just gonna outfit them with furniture using the same tactics that we've used before. Again, we've got the product category in the modular segment already. We know the levels of furniture penetration that we're able to achieve. We're just gonna start extending that value proposition now into the 16,000+ units on rent that are in the Mobile Mini branch network.
Across the Mobile Mini branch network today, we're currently billing about $32 per unit per month. That's mostly coming from our insurance waiver product. You can see in the right-hand chart over there, the monthly rate per unit has been pretty flat for some time, but you're starting to see some acceleration in recent quarters as we started to focus on it, and then a select number of branches have started to roll out the value-added products offering. In the left-hand chart, again, the mechanics are exactly the same as they are in North America Modular. If we can get all of these units over time, and again, we're just starting to roll this out in the second half of 2021, so I expect we start to get some traction in 2022.
Over time, if we're successful in delivering every unit at $275 per unit per month like we are for comparably sized products in the modular segment, that's worth about $50 million of, again, very high probability recurring revenue. Apply a 75% flow through to that, and you're at about $35 million incremental contribution from value-added products in ground-level offices. Again, we've got a high degree of confidence. We've done this before in every single acquisition that we've executed. If a unit was acquired from Tyson or Acton or ModSpace, they're all going out with value-added products today. This is exactly the opportunity that we quantified for you 20 months ago when we announced the Mobile Mini transaction. Again, say what you're gonna do and do it. It's getting started.
One thing that we hadn't contemplated 20 months ago was the opportunity to introduce a value-added products offering for our storage container fleet. As we've spent more time in the storage segment and in the branch network and studied our customers' behavior, we do see numerous opportunities to add value to the storage solutions that we're already providing. The four corners of this page are photographs from units that are on customer sites, and you can see how customers are using our equipment today. They're hanging tools. They are building shelving and workstations with lumber, which is a waste of time and money. They're stringing up electrical and lighting, which is probably unsafe.
Based on what we see our customers doing already, it's pretty easy to imagine how we could add another $20, $30, $40, or $50 per unit per month per transaction in a transaction that today is about $150 per unit per month. This is our highest volume product category, so relatively small dollar improvements can drive very substantial revenue. We spent the last few months conducting voice-of-the-customer research. Again, deliberate approach, same approach that we've taken previously. We're developing the product offering, and we're incredibly excited to begin rolling this out in, you know, the first half, more towards the Q2 timeframe in 2022. This is the type of opportunity when you talk about medium and long-term tailwind. We'll put the gears in motion today.
We'll start to get some traction next year, but this is really a 2023 and beyond opportunity. It'll further differentiate our Mobile Mini brand from the competition, again, introducing operational complexity that's difficult to replicate, and we're incredibly excited about the economics. Similar to the ground level office fleet, in the Mobile Mini brand, we're currently billing about $11 per unit per month of value-added products from storage containers. Again, that's mostly from the insurance waiver product. If we can add just another $29 per unit per month, think shelving, think lights, think the items you saw on the previous page. That's worth about $50 million, again, of organic revenue growth across the storage segment of 137,000 units on rent. Oh, by the way, we acquired some units in Q3 that take that number higher.
Well, it is a new offering, you know, there's always a little more risk to it. We are using the same product development process. It's a very similar customer value proposition to what we've had success with in the modular segment, serving all of the same end markets. I do like our chances of success here over time. Like I said, it's a good differentiator relative to the competition. That's another way to kind of extend our leadership position in the market. We've spent a little bit of time here on the first of the five growth drivers. If you've been doing the math in aggregate, this in the VAPS opportunity alone adds up to around $300 million of organic EBITDA growth over, like, a five to seven-year timeframe, depending on which opportunity you're talking about.
We've got a very high degree of conviction here. Now we're gonna shift gears and talk about rate optimization. Always a fun topic. We could probably spend the rest of the afternoon talking about this, but we won't. We'll try to keep it to five or seven minutes. In many respects, the pricing results in our modular segment speak for themselves. Over the past 10 years, rates exclusive of value-added products have increased at an 11% CAGR relative to the more inflationary trend that we saw in the preceding decades. This is not something that just started, you know, a year or two ago. This has been going on for 10 years. Something changed, you know, 10 years ago, right? What changed? It was people, it was process, and it was technology.
Historically, pricing decisions in the modular segment were very local and decentralized. You got an awful lot of variability. Back in the 2011 timeframe, the team started introducing manual centralized pricing reviews just so that there was a little bit more consistency in terms of the thought process and how we, you know, the rates we charge for our assets. We then began managing out-of-term rates more thoughtfully. These are the prices that we charge once a unit goes beyond its minimum contractual term. Customer will sign an 11-month lease. They'll keep it for 30 months. We have pricing latitude in that interim period. We then look to other industries like airlines and hospitality for other revenue management best practices. We rolled out technology-enabled price segmentation through our CRM in the 2015 and 2016 timeframe.
Then since then, we've further differentiated our value proposition with value-added products. We've consolidated our market position, which will provide further tailwinds from a pricing standpoint going forward. The point of this chart is that we don't see rate growth as some derivative of market conditions or the output of supply and demand. Pricing is consistently outside of the top four purchasing criteria for our customers. We believe we can drive rates through consistent, repeatable processes supported by technology. As you saw in our Q3 results, North America Modular rates actually accelerated inclusive of VAPS, they're up 20% year-over-year.
If we take away VAPS and just look at core unit pricing, we see a 20% spread between prices on our contracts in the last 12 months, totaling over $700 per unit per month versus the overall portfolio average at $600. Simply allowing the portfolio to converge again on that predictable three-year cadence to our current LTM delivered rates represents a $120 million organic growth opportunity over three years at roughly 90% flow through to EBITDA. That implies that we can grow core pricing on our modular fleet by about 5% a year without raising rates beyond those that we've charged in the last 12 months. That's an incredibly powerful position to be in. Rest assured, you know, the team in the back of the room is pushing rates every day. Right.
Stepping back, we're in probably the most favorable environment in the last decade to support rate growth. If you think about inflationary pressures, supply chain pressures, we are the largest marginal supplier of this equipment in all of the markets that we serve at roughly 70% utilization. So we've never been in a stronger position from a rate management position in North America modular. So I think the path for modular pricing is clear, and then the question is, where do you go, where do you go next? The chart on the left shows a rough breakdown of our revenue across four major revenue streams, sales, D&I, VAPS, and unit leasing across our four segments.
We're not gonna talk a lot specifically about storage and tank and pump today, but all the best practices that we're talking about resonate in those segments as well. We're just gonna focus on the core segments. Everything that we've just talked about from a process and technology standpoint as it relates to rate management applies to this 1/3 of our revenue in North America Modular. You see the rest of the playing field is still up for grabs from my perspective. We see very interesting pricing opportunities across all of our transportation revenue streams. We, like I said earlier, see optimization opportunities with value-added products. But the process that's most analogous to that which we're executing in Modular is the unit lease revenue and storage, about 20% of our revenue.
Then we'll talk about that in a second. When I think about this, any single transaction that takes place over 30 months, I kinda think of these as like plate appearances in a very, very long ballgame. You won't get a hit every single time, but you've got enough opportunities to be successful, that we can be confident that we're gonna drive rate. We're just kinda really, really honed in on about a third of our revenue streams currently. What do we see when we dig into the North America Storage segment, given it's our largest, second largest pricing opportunity or revenue stream? Historically, the pricing decisions have been very decentralized with a lot of variability. It's not always a bad thing, but it does sometimes suggest there could be opportunity.
Given that we're dealing with a very high volume of relatively standardized transactions, this is exactly the type of portfolio that can lend itself to technology-enabled segmentation. We also see that rates on containers historically have been relatively flat, despite the fact that we've got a truly differentiated, in some cases, patented storage product offering, and an unrivaled service and transportation capability under the flagship brand in the sector. Realistically, we're probably looking at the second half of 2022 before we begin piloting an optimization tool. We're gonna do the CRM project first, which Graeme will talk about. We've already gotten started with some other process enhancements that then set the stage to begin driving rate rates in the meantime. We're starting to see some results.
You know, a year ago, many of you will recall when we first published container-only pricing and ground level office only pricing in our storage segment, we saw that container pricing historically had been relatively flat. You can actually see that in some of the 2019 and 2020 data. What you're also starting to see more recently in Q3 and Q2 is a modest acceleration, and the timing is not accidental. In Q1, we began a branch-by-branch process to review rates on new activations relative to our overall portfolio. We also tweaked our commission and incentive plan slightly to ensure there was strong alignment with both price and volume. We also began updating national account pricing closer to spot market levels.
The team's been incredibly receptive to these types of changes, and we're starting to see some results. That said, it's early, and we're in a very supportive pricing environment generally. As we look at what our rate optimization roadmap could look like for North America storage, we see opportunities in product positioning. Again, totally differentiated product. We see opportunities with transaction segmentation. We see opportunities with duration-based pricing, charging, you know, maybe a discount or a premium for contracts of certain contractual terms. And we see opportunities to apply technology. If we just simply sustain the growth rates that we're on in Q2 and Q3, again, over a three to five-year period, you get to incremental annual revenue in the $40 million-$80 million range. Again, a very high contribution, 90% plus to EBITDA.
This is definitely gonna continue to be an area of focus, and one that is very near and dear to my heart. Shifting gears to the third growth lever that we're gonna talk about, market penetration. We knew when we underwrote the Mobile Mini merger, that our combined market presence and cross-selling potential would be a competitive advantage, but it was pretty difficult to pinpoint or quantify. We knew there was 80% end market overlap and 40% customer overlap, but aside from introducing our branch managers to one another, and our sales reps to share opportunities the old-fashioned way, the information just wasn't actionable because we were two separate teams operating in two separate systems. That is beginning to change.
After consolidating onto SAP in Q2, the first thing we did was to begin to unify all of our historical customer data so that we have a single view of all historical transactions, regardless of whether the transaction was executed by Acton or ModSpace or Mobile Mini or WillScot over the years. This represents an incredible information advantage in the market relative to anybody else that we're competing with. We probably have over 50% of the market transaction data available to us. It allows us to zoom in both at the ZIP code level as well as the specific account level to identify very specific and actionable opportunities where we're under-penetrated in either modular or in storage. Again, we're in the early stages of rolling this one out, and our capabilities will be enhanced next year as we go through a CRM harmonization exercise.
This will form the foundation from which we'll develop our marketing strategies and territory planning in 2022 and beyond. When we perform this kind of ZIP code by ZIP code analysis in North America, we see some pretty meaningful opportunities to capture share. In the ZIP codes where we're under-penetrated in modular, we see an opportunity ranging from 6,000 to 12,000 units on rent. That could translate to between 1% and 3% annually of above-market volume growth as we're successful in getting our teams aligned to drive that, and it's about $30 million-$70 million of incremental annual EBITDA at current rates. On the right-hand side, we obviously have lower overall market share on the storage side of the business.
When we do the same analysis of under-penetrated ZIP codes, the opportunity is much higher, ranging between 40,000 and 100,000 storage units on rent, which at the high end of the range would double the size of our storage business. Obviously, we would never introduce that much fleet organically, so a consistent cadence of tuck-in acquisitions on the storage side of the business starts to make a heck of a lot of sense as we, you know, strive to converge those relative shares over time. We'll talk about some of those example transactions in a minute.
Inclusive of tuck-in M&A, you could drive volume growth maybe 5 points above market, and the opportunity over time is $45 million-$130 million of incremental EBITDA, again, by bringing that storage share more in line with modular over time. If you take this ZIP code analysis down to the local level, this is where it gets very interesting and extremely powerful and actionable. This is a snapshot of the Greater New York and Long Island markets. You can see very clearly green areas where we're under-penetrated in modular and blue areas where we're probably under-penetrated in storage. The beauty of this type of analysis is we know who all the customers are in each of those locations.
While there's no customer concentration at the portfolio level, you know, we don't have any customer more than 1% of revenue in our top 50 or, like, 15% of revenue. When you go down to the local level, it's not uncommon for the top 20 customers to drive, you know, 80%+ of the business. Then you kind of know very specifically, here are the accounts that our team needs to target, and that then informs the territory plans that our field leadership and our commercial leadership are gonna develop. Again, early stages of rolling this out, but you can begin to appreciate the massive informational advantage that we have by virtue of our scale and by virtue of our commitment to technology. What does the commercial roadmap look like? It's gonna be very long-term and strategic in nature.
This gives you a sense for where we are over here on the journey. As we've talked about on our quarterly calls, cross-selling to date has been limited to just basically old-fashioned call up your buddy and share your pipeline every week or every month, as well as some automated lead transfer between two separate and distinct CRM systems. There are some results. I think we can say with confidence that we're getting about an incremental 110 storage orders per week or about 3% uplift by virtue of having shared modular leads from one CRM into the storage CRM. We also know there's a lot of informal collaboration taking place in the field that we can't really quantify yet.
Given the opportunity here, and the first priority, again, after consolidating the ERP, was to unify all of that historical customer data. As Graeme will talk about, moving into 2022, getting our teams onto a single CRM will be a very important exercise. This will enable all employees to see all customer activity across the entire company, which is pretty cool. That will then allow us to introduce a new level of sophistication in terms of how we target accounts, how to penetrate specific industry verticals, which we haven't really done strategically before, and then how we service national versus local accounts, just as some examples of how we can begin to rethink our go-to-market strategy.
It also then put in place a foundation on which we can build some other pretty cool capabilities based on artificial intelligence and predictive selling, which again, nobody else in our sector is obviously doing. The takeaway here is that, again, we're just getting started with the commercial roadmap, very long-term, very strategic in nature, but it highlights the extreme advantage that we have relative to anybody else in our competitive set. Moving on to our fourth value driver in growth category, we'll talk about operations. As Bradley mentioned, one of the real value drivers in acquisitions is the identification of best practices that can be scaled across the combined enterprise. We can point to best practices today that are in place that have been developed by Acton or by ModSpace. We liked what we saw.
We're pretty objective in terms of how we evaluate our own operations as well as those that we see in our peers, and we've scaled them. If we're doing acquisitions right, being objective and finding the best talent and the best practices is part of the gig. Graeme will talk about technology later, but that was clearly an area where Mobile Mini was further along. We had a state-of-the-art SAP platform in place. We moved over $1 billion of WillScot revenue onto that platform because it was the right thing to do, and it was the best tool for the job. Logistics is another area where by virtue of handling a high volume of smaller value transactions, the Mobile Mini branch network is much more highly evolved than WillScot was.
Not only do we see an opportunity to take some of those best practices that are in place today at storage and apply them in modular, our storage team itself has kind of an ongoing process to drive continuous improvement from an operational standpoint, and we see some exciting opportunities there. There's a lot of value at stake. You know, if you look across delivery and installation revenues, it's about $350 million of revenue across our combined four segments. You see a 20% spread between the margin at which our storage colleagues are operating containers and the margin at which we're operating modular, and there are some operational differences such that they may never be exactly the same, but they should probably be a little closer together than that.
When you just look at the basics, you know, in the storage segment, we've insourced about 70% of our transportation activities. We're below 50%, in the modular business. That means that there's a lot of margin in the modular business going to third-party haulers. Perhaps more importantly, there are a lot of third-party haulers that are interacting with our customers. We have over 500 trucks in the storage segment, under 200 in Modular. Our storage dispatchers have a visualization tool called Descartes. For a given day, they can see where all the deliveries and pickups are, and they can kinda visually map, I think this is the most efficient route. On the modular side, we basically just have a scheduling tool, that's useful to plan capacity across our in-house and our third-party, resources.
The next step for storage branches is true algorithm-based route optimization. That's something that we're working on, I'll talk about here. We're already experimenting with more zone-based and value-based pricing in the storage segment. I mean, there's a lot of good experience there that we can draw from in the modular segment, where we're really more of a cost-plus, a little bit reactive in terms of how we price our transportation services. If you just think about what could something like route optimization mean across our business. We've tested algorithm-based tools, linear programming tools to say, "Okay, how am I gonna minimize mileage or fuel costs?" Or, you know, pick the constraints that you wanna put on the model. You know, scheduling alone, and we saw this efficiency when we rolled out our pricing tools.
It's very time-consuming to be thoughtful about every price point. It's very time-consuming to be thoughtful about route scheduling. Work that could have taken a dispatcher eight hours can now be done in eight minutes. In this example, in a single branch, in a single day, our team saw a 17% reduction in the mileage that was committed to a route. As Bradley said, you know, we're doing over 100,000 miles per day. Get a 17% reduction on that at $4 per mile, now you're talking $15 million-$20 million of cost savings just by doing that. Plus the emissions reductions, which Jamie will talk about. We also see opportunities on the revenue side of delivery and installation.
I highlighted earlier that D&I revenues represent about 20% of our consolidated revenue, and we really haven't had a consistent pricing process around those, around those activities. Modest improvements in the top line, such as differentiated pricing, for expedited delivery, different price for delivery tomorrow, different price if you want something set up in Times Square overnight, different price if you want it delivered, two weeks from now. Material handling charges for value-added products. When we first rolled out value-added products, we kinda gave away the delivery as a promotion. Five years later, we're revisiting that. Then standardization of installation services and the associated charges. There's a lot of work, as you saw out in the FLEX unit, to get that unit set up, level, with the steps in place.
That is pretty inconsistent in terms of how it's executed across our branch network today. These are three examples of things that we're doing now that can represent nearer term tailwinds for 2022. Then you've got the other examples like more insourcing over time in the modular business, the introduction of route-based optimization. Those are probably more medium and longer term in nature. Again, you've got multiple ways to win, multiple ways to drive between $25 million and $50 million of potential margin recapture, both in near term initiatives and in longer term, more strategic initiatives. Moving on to our last segment in the growth opportunities section of the agenda. We'll talk a little bit about how we're thinking about acquisitions.
Before we take a short break, Graeme's gonna talk about technology, and then Hezron and Jamie are gonna talk about environmental and social and governance initiatives. Our acquisition track record again, I think speaks for itself. We've executed all shapes and sizes, ranging from relatively straightforward tuck-ins to, at least by our standards, highly complex and transformational transactions like both ModSpace and Mobile Mini. In all cases, we've realized the benefits that we expected, and we've integrated timely and without, you know, too much disruption.
We've also adjusted our integration process and refined it over the years to catalog all the mistakes that we've made and also catalog the best practices so that next time we can do it better, some of the smaller tucks that we've talked about in the last couple of quarters. We're able to commit to a 30-day sign close and integrate because of you know, the ability to repeat these processes as well as the scalability of both the branch network and the technology and the corporate infrastructure. In all cases, our deals have been both strategic and accretive. We've been disciplined, and we've also walked away from our fair share over the years when opportunities didn't meet those criteria.
Most importantly, when we buy something, we do it with the conviction that we will be the absolute best owners and operators of the acquired assets, because through our commercial and operational best practices, we know that we can add value. We used this exact page in June of 2018 when we announced the acquisition of ModSpace, and it's a case in point. The transaction was highly strategic. It represented the opportunity to acquire the number one or two operator in every single market in the United States and Canada, making us the dominant number one. The financial benefits were extraordinary. Everybody knows there were $60 million of cost synergies on $106 million of EBITDA, so pretty extraordinary uplift from cost reductions alone. We had an entirely duplicative branch network and corporate infrastructure.
Lots of disruption in terms of executing that, but high value at stake and high value realized. We also acquired over $1 billion of net operating losses, which are continuing to benefit the company today and will for five years, if not more into the future. We also, little known fact, received over $100 million of owned real estate in that transaction, which over time we've been able to liquidate and recapture that capital and redeploy it into VAPS and other tuck-in acquisitions and maybe some refurbishments. Much more efficient use of our capital. ModSpace also operated with almost $100 million of additional net working capital relative to WillScot. You may recall we take deposits on the first and last month's rent on a lot of our standard lease transactions. ModSpace didn't do those types of things.
Over time, we've been able to recapture some of that working capital out of the business, and frankly, we still have some work to do in that area. Then there, of course, was some revenue leakage pricing as the portfolio turns over, as well as the ability to cross-sell value-added products into every asset in ModSpace's fleet, taking the post synergy acquisition multiples into really, really attractive territory. All right. There's obviously a lot of work and disruption that goes into that. The team executed as well as any I've ever encountered. This illustrates how we look at acquisitions and the different sources of value that you can find in any given situation. In many respects, our discussion today about Mobile Mini is the exact same discussion. We're talking about all those same types of value drivers again.
Once again, we're on track with the plans that we committed to about 20 months ago when we announced the merger on March 2nd, 2020, the last time I was in New York City, a couple of blocks from here. We successfully navigated the most complex part of the integration, the ERP migration, again, taking all of WillScot's operations, every single branch in the modular network onto SAP, really seamlessly. You just don't see any disruption in what we report externally. The effort behind the scenes is really extraordinary to pull that off. That's, you know, what the team has been up to for the better part of the last nine to 12 months. We're now starting to see the results from some of the initiatives that we had envisioned 20 months ago.
We're working on the IT in the back office, as we've talked about. We're talking about cross-selling and commercial coordination. We're talking about logistics optimization, and we're realizing the cost synergies that we committed to. Everything that we envisioned 20 months ago when we started this journey is still very much on the table with some additional upside like value-added products and containers. Beyond this integration, there's a lot more opportunity out there for us to pursue. You've all noticed in the last 45 days, we've closed four very high-quality tuck-in transactions, and we also walked away from a couple that didn't make any sense. In aggregate, we added 11,500 portable storage units. We added 1,200 modular units, and you know, roughly $10 million of run rate EBITDA going into next year.
These smaller transactions are meaningful because we can execute them efficiently and with scale. We're acquiring at fair valuations, and we have a growing pipeline of these opportunities. The transactions effectively compound upon our existing value drivers, adding new opportunities for price growth, value-added products growth, as well as operating efficiencies down at the branch level. When we look at these deals, we see very clear ways to add value, and we know that we are the very best owner and operator of storage and modular assets in the markets that we serve. These deals are extremely impactful when you zoom in and look at the local level. This graphic zooms in on the state of Texas. You can see in Dallas, San Antonio, and in Houston, we are just compounding our local scale with these types of transactions.
You see WillScot branches on top of Mobile Mini branches, on top of Saf-T-Box branches, on top of Equipe branches. Before you know it, with a handful of tuck-in acquisitions, we've increased our fleet size in three of the largest markets in the United States by 70%. Then from a human capital standpoint, we're adding salespeople, we're adding drivers, we're adding branch personnel, all of whom we can leverage across our branch network, and who in turn then enjoy the superior benefits and career opportunities that are associated with being part of a world-class enterprise. It's always difficult to predict the timing and the magnitude of future M&A, but it will absolutely continue to be part of the growth strategy.
What we do know about our recent M&A is that the transactions that we've already executed will be providing earnings tailwinds for two or three years on into the future. We just acquired approximately 10 million of run rate EBITDA, as I said, in Q3 and Q4. We've highlighted previously approximately $40 million of cost efficiencies that we think we can extract over time, mostly from the merger with Mobile Mini. There will be some additional synergies, probably longer-term in nature, as we fully integrate the acquired tuck-ins. Think about commercial convergence, which we've realized in all of our, you know, prior deals.
This, of course, excludes any future acquisitions, which are probably inevitable, but we don't see a lot of benefit in trying to predict the timing or the magnitude of that, given all the other initiatives that we're talking about are 100% within our control. As we wrap it up, we're going to kinda close out the growth opportunities section, and we're gonna take a 15-minute break. Let's plan to come back, what is that, Nick? After like 2:40 P.M? Good call. There was a ton of content in these pages, and there's a lot of supporting analysis, so I don't expect you were able to digest everything that we just went through, but we've been working on it really ever since we closed the Mobile Mini transaction. We were laser-focused on getting the ERP integration done right.
All of these other value drivers, we just kinda parked, and we put them in a little shopping cart of opportunity that we're now selecting from. It's all incredibly exciting to our team. I promise we will take time to do the usual follow-up meetings and answer your questions and provide updates in future periods as to our progress. The takeaway should be clear. We have a vast portfolio of growth initiatives that are within our control. You haven't heard us talking about market prognostications. I didn't even mention infrastructure once. These are opportunities that we own, and they are unique to WillScot. They're each highly credible because we've executed every single one of them previously, and we have tangible results to back it up. In aggregate, they total nearly $1 billion of growth opportunity. Again, we're not gonna get it all.
We'll win some, we'll lose some, but in aggregate, there's a nice playing field to run on. Focusing on these high-value opportunities will propel the business almost indefinitely. That's exactly what we're gonna do. When you hear from Graeme regarding our tech initiatives or from Hezron or Jamie regarding ESG, I think you'll appreciate that all of our functional initiatives, as well as our human and our financial capital, will be channeled towards these highest value opportunities. It's our job as a leadership team to ensure that we maintain that laser-like focus. I think that's been our track record, and that's exactly what we intend to do. With that, let's break. We'll reconvene at 2:40 P.M. according to our master of ceremonies. Thank you for your interest and your attention.
Hey, could we have everyone kinda move back to their seats? Oh, sorry. I think we got it turned on. We're gonna drop the curtain, and I'd like to quickly introduce Graeme. Graeme's gonna take us through our technology platform, where we've been, where we are, and where we're going. Then he's gonna hand it over to Hezron and Jamie to walk us through ESG and back to Timothy for the outlook. I'll do a one slide wrap up and get us into Q&A. Thanks, everyone.
Thanks, Bradley. I think we'll just wait until the excitement on the side is finished up. We don't kill anybody.
Yeah. It's like returning to a cruise ship. You don't make it on time, you're not allowed back on board. All right. I think it's time to move. All right. Thanks, Bradley. Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Graeme Parkes . I am the Chief Information Officer for the company. You know, it's at this time of day, I'm expecting people to stand up and be excited about the presentations. You know, following up on Timothy and the information he's just provided, pretty difficult to follow something like that. I'd be remiss if I didn't say as a technologist to stand up here and listen to both Bradley and Timothy talk about technology and how important it is to the company.
There's no doubt that it feels good to be part of a team that really values technology as a component of the overall, you know. I think what we're gonna discuss today as I take you through sort of how we enable the growth that both Bradley and Timothy talked about is, you know, it's not just about technology, it's truly around how do we take that technology, how do we decide what it is that we're gonna put in, and then utilize it to the best extent possible. Timothy mentioned credibility, and I think that, you know, as I stand up here and look out on the floor, the question becomes, why can we do what we say we're gonna do, you know? There's a
There's obviously a business process and a business value here that's so incredible. From a technology point of view, it underpins so much of what we're planning on doing. The question becomes, well, can you do it? I mean, that's part of what you're telling us the growth is. What we wanted to do was just have a look back over the years and all the way back to 2008, where very much you start to see a proven track record of implementation of successful systems and platforms. All the way back to 2008 when we were talking about both WillScot and Mobile Mini independently implementing Salesforce, ability to create sales teams to utilize those platforms, right?
Timothy touched on Zilliant and the pricing side in 2015-2016 timeframe, which allowed us to get better visibility into our rate management and optimization, all the way up to a very successful, and we'll touch on it briefly next, ERP implementation on the Mobile Mini side in 2016. We've been executing and implementing successfully world-class platforms for a long time, and that's gonna continue, right? It's not just about how do we grow, right? It's not how do we implement new platforms. It's how do we take our current processes and at the same time as we impacting or influencing change on the organization, how do we continue to support and optimize those things that we currently do as well?
I think Timothy mentioned it's not about doing things differently necessarily, although we are gonna do some things differently. If we just continue to do what we're doing right now and optimize, there's a huge upside as well, right? When we looked at implementing SAP in 2014 at Mobile Mini, when I joined Mobile Mini, the intent was never to implement a platform to run a $600 million company, right? It was rather to architect something, a much more robust solution that we could scale to be much larger. This is the victory lap, I'm afraid to say. I was told I was allowed to take a very brief victory lap on an SAP implementation that was on time, on budget, and relatively successful. This is it. It's
With Warren Smith, who's sitting in the back, we partnered with the Chief Admin Officer and integration officer, and really worked with the business team that over 10 months, which is pretty quick, we implemented SAP for the WillScot side of the business. We've seen that not only was it successfully implemented with very little impact to our business. I think the vast majority of you were probably on the call on Friday that Bradley and Timothy ran. Very little, if any impact to operations. Certainly there's been no impact to the numbers that we've seen going out on the earnings calls. More importantly, we've architected and we have a system that can continue to grow.
We aren't at capacity on this platform. We have an ability to grow this to wherever we need it to go to. I think even more importantly that as we've gone live on SAP, it's not just that we're live on SAP, but now that we're starting to understand what we've got across the broader organization, we're starting to take advantage of that. We've been able to do that pretty quickly, and I've been in the SAP game for over 20 years. We've started to take advantage of the platform a lot quickly than a lot of companies have been able to do. Why? Because we have a team sitting in Phoenix that has been running and optimizing this platform for five years already.
As we've brought it, the WillScot business onto that platform, we're starting to see very, very quickly the benefits of that implementation. Couple of examples. We've got much more accurate real-time fleet status information. We know exactly where our fleet is. We know exactly what the status is, what condition it's in, what we need to do to be able to to repair it, to refurbish it, to get it back out as quickly as we possibly can, or as quickly as we need to. We've deployed things like handheld devices, which again, this is not new technology from a point of view of people sitting back going, "Wow, you guys have sort of put handhelds in your yard." No, there's lots of companies that do that.
However, in our industry, when we look at our competition, we are a long way ahead of what people are doing. Our fleet is there. We've got better visibility around our workforce and our labor, right? We can reduce some of those variable costs as we get the units ready to go back out. Timothy mentioned the more accurate spare part and VAPS inventories, which reduces the stock holdings and overall spend. More importantly, when we look at all of these things in conjunction with the sales data that we've got at the moment, it allows us to execute more accurately, get things where they need to be, more timely, which at the end of the day, results in a much more improved customer experience. Sadly, that was, you know, that was it.
That was the victory lap. It doesn't stop. That's sort of the. That was yesterday. As we move forward, we continue to look at the application catalog that we've got, and we look for redundancy, and we look at replacing and eliminating that redundancy to reduce operating costs, but also to standardize processes across the organization. As we standardize processes across that, we drive efficiencies in operations, we facilitate the onboarding and training of new employees as we bring them on board, and we can also start to run the analytics which identifies areas of issue across all the activities that we execute within the organization. Which means that we can very quickly go back and fix when we start to see inefficiencies or things going wrong in certain areas.
All of that contributes to the attainment of some of the identified $40 million merger-related synergies, but more important, further cost efficiencies and revenue growth as we move forward. Right. Tim's talked a lot about the CRM implementation, and now that we've got a lot of the operations and the financial side onto the SAP platform, we pivot a little bit more to the customer-facing systems. Obviously, central to that is gonna be the Salesforce consolidation project. We're currently running two separate Salesforce instances which integrate into SAP, and we'll be moving on to a brand-new instance of Salesforce running the latest version and taking advantage of all the latest bells and whistles that Salesforce has to offer us.
We've also got a large number of unique applications. When I say unique applications that we have built at home that we'll take advantage of through this process, and a large number of those are only being used on one side of the business currently. Over the next six-nine months, we'll be looking at rolling some of those things out. Things like Periscope, which helps us identify and quantify individual market opportunities. Not only does it help us quantify it, but then it helps us align our sales teams to those markets, ensuring that we've got the right people in the right place looking after our customers and meeting the customer needs.
Timothy mentioned our capability of interrogating historical customer data, and this combined with the ever-expanding opportunity to cross-sell the new VAPS offerings, as well as our rate optimization and management pricing tools, will all contribute when we implement this new CRM platform to a much improved customer experience. I think that at the end of the day, one of the things we talk a lot about operational efficiencies, but we are a growth company. We'll continue to be a growth company, and it's that ability to put tools in people's hands that will facilitate that growth. The other side that we talk about is the digitization and the customer self-service. We've got a number of tools available to us that we're going to expand their use across the organization.
Connect is a product that was created on the Mobile Mini side four or five years ago. It gives our customers the ability to review their orders, review their invoices, make payments on their invoices, right? These are capabilities that we haven't had across the entire organization and we'll start to roll those out. We have further things that we're gonna wanna discuss as it relates to that digitization. I think we're going to be more focused on the CRM platform initially, and the rollout and the expansion of our current capabilities. We'll start to see that any e-commerce discussions will start to happen a little bit later and after that.
Certainly, as we work with the commercial team to identify what those opportunities are, we'll also be going out and taking the voice of the customer to ensure that the products and services that we build on the technology platform are things that people are actually going to use. So a very pragmatic approach to development. Touch very briefly on one of the other areas Timothy talked about, which was the logistics side. Really an exciting piece of work going on here that the team have already kicked off with some of the transportation and logistics teams. When we've done some of the modeling and some of the work in a proof of concept stage, we did this around Dallas. There is a huge opportunity for efficiencies within our logistics space.
We've got tracking up here. We also talk about the inventory sides. But at the end of the day, this is all upside to what we're trying to accomplish. Here is, in my opinion, the most exciting piece from a technology point of view. Timothy touched on it as well, but I wanna reiterate this. We have more data than anybody else in the industry. We have a vast number of transactions and moves that span the entire country that we can go and interrogate. It's not just about customer data, right?
Think about it from the perspective of, if we've done two million plus moves over the past four years, we have information about our customers, those contracts, the fleets associated with that, the rates that we got to that from that, the operations involved in getting that fleet ready to send out to customers. We've got all of it. As well as that, we've now implemented a Snowflake with a data warehouse, which combined with Tableau dashboarding and BusinessObjects, SAP BusinessObjects. We have an ability to very easily get in and dissect that data very quickly. Which means that as we start to want insights, we will be able to accelerate getting that information out. Now, we are at the beginning of this, and with Matt Jacobsen and the BI team and FP&A team, we're really starting to scratch that surface.
It's a really, really exciting piece that when we get to the end of this, we become a lot more predictive in nature rather than being reactive. We can be directive in terms of how we sell, where we sell, at what rate we sell, where we position our fleet. We can combine that with additional information out in the marketplace, whether it be weather information, whether it be anything else, and we can become very predictive in how we operate. That to me is unbelievably exciting or an unbelievably exciting opportunity. Not gonna spend much time here. Need to wrap up as well.
Really the other thing that the merger and the assumption of WillScot onto the SAP platform gave us was the ability to create a framework and a set of tools to do these acquisition integration. With a dedicated team, right? Not only did we bring on board WillScot, we've done four acquisitions lately, three of which were in one single weekend. Nearly killed the team, but it was done in a single weekend to bring three companies on.
Again, it's not just the fact that we've brought them on, it's the fact that we now are going to be running standard processes and all these acquisitions that we do, we bring onto the WillScot Mobile Mini way of doing things, which as Timothy said, we believe we are the best. We know we're the best. We've got data to prove we're the best at doing this, the most efficient at doing this. When, as we grow through acquisition, that's all just efficiencies that we'll start to see. On top of that, the more we grow, the more acquisitions that we do, the more data we get. The more visibility into the overall market that we get.
In conclusion, if I leave you with anything today, it's that we've been able to, with the help of Hezron and Jamie, who'll be up next to talk about ESG, create business teams and technical teams who are the best in the industry. Those teams are busy implementing, optimizing, and utilizing a recognizable. When I say recognizable, you look around that ring over there, the vast majority of the tools that we're using could run companies ten times the size of ours. We've got capability of growing, and our teams are world-class in implementing these technologies.
We are very dedicated to ensuring that any technology that we do deploy is value add to the business, and at the end of the day, is manageable, and we can report on ourselves to ensure that we're getting what we said we would do. Thank you very much. I appreciate your time. I hand it over to Hezron and Jamie now, who are going to take you through ESG.
Thanks, Graeme. I'm Hezron Lopez, CHRO. Graeme covered how technology will enable our future growth. I will provide a high-level overview of our ESG approach, and Jamie Bohan, our Vice President, ESG, will provide the details on how our ESG approach will accelerate our future growth. We believe our ESG profile is inherently sustainable because our products and operations have a low environmental impact due to reusability, relocatability, and our scale. We also believe our ESG approach will deliver opportunity to our employees and the communities where we operate, provide best-in-class safety and value to our customers, and accelerate growth and value for our shareholders.
We are new to ESG, but we took some time to get here, and these focus areas are a result of extensive peer review and benchmarking against companies with distributive franchise-like business models like our own, and conversations with our employees, management, and board members. Given our low impact on the environment, our ESG approach is straightforward. From an E perspective, we will continue to reduce, reuse, recycle, and improve energy efficiency over time. From an S perspective, we'll continue Delivering Opportunity to our employees via our human capital strategy that Jamie will discuss. Our human capital strategy ensures that human capital does not constrain the growth that Bradley and Timothy talked about, but provides us with a comparative advantage. With company demographics that mirror the locations where we operate, we're able to focus on inclusion and drive diversity.
Further, with 275 branches, we can leverage our scale to enhance the community giving in those communities where we operate. With respect to governance, we will maintain one, strong enterprise risk management processes, two, strong management and board oversight over our ESG initiatives, and three, we'll remain committed to diversifying our board from a gender, race, and ethnicity, skills enhancement, and a skills enhancement perspective. Now, I introduce to you Jamie Bohan, our Vice President of ESG, who will provide you a little bit more detail on our ESG approach, and I'll return to discuss our board structure, guardrails, and next steps. Jamie.
Thank you. Thank you, Hezron. Hi, everybody. I've met a few of you before we started, but it's nice to see so many faces out there. I bet it feels good to be together in person today. You've heard us say multiple times today that ESG is an accelerant for our growth strategy, and I'd like to add some color to that. At a high level, it means that when we execute on our ESG initiatives, our business performs better, and we remove constraints to growth, as Hezron just said. That's one of the reasons why we call our ESG program Delivering Opportunity. I think what you'll see today is that this is a company that is smart to own and you can also feel good about owning. In practical terms, we reduce cost and risk when we manage our environmental impacts.
We win with efficient logistics at scale. We win with industry-leading safety performance, and we win with a diverse and inclusive employee population that's fully engaged both at work and in their communities. We're gonna take a look at each of these, and we're gonna start with our circular business model. As we said, we lease commercial grade units that are designed to be reused, relocated, and reconfigured. In fact, we do this more than 200,000 times a year. A typical modular unit is cycled to different customers 8x or 9x over its lifetime with a minimal refresh or get ready between each customer. When we layer on best-in-class refurbishment, we can extend the asset life by another 10 years. Through reduce, reuse, and recycle, we're able to really stretch our assets and our materials.
Because of our lease model, we prevent our customers from building over 121 million sq ft of space each year. As Bradley said, that's the equivalent of 44 Empire State Buildings, and that's space that would otherwise be torn down and sent to a landfill at the end of the project. Just as VAPS compounds our growth story, it also compounds our circular story. Timothy spoke about how reuse, repair, and maintenance of VAPS helps us to drive better growth and margins. Here again, when customers don't lease VAPS from us, they buy them and scrap them after their project. That's our circular business model. It's intentionally designed for lease and renew, and it reduces our material usage, our emissions, and our costs, and it helps our customers with their ESG goals. Let's look at some numbers.
We're the only company with the capability to do refurbishment in-house at scale. With the cost of a refurbishment being only 20%-30% of the cost of a new asset, it's more capital efficient for us to refurbish our units, and it extends their life from 20-30 years, as I said. This helps us reduce our costs for sure, because we can refurbish four units for the price of one new asset. In the lens of our aggressive growth mindset, this also enables us to respond to customer requirements faster with greater scale, flexibility, and at higher profitability. In addition, our refurbishment capability also helps to insulate us from supply chain disruptions and price volatility for materials we would otherwise need for new assets.
This gives us a higher degree of control over our supply chain relative to our peers in the industry. Finally, as we acquire companies with older, poor quality fleets, we're able to pump those units into our refurbishment channel when they're ready, which represents an additional capital synergy from our investment. We have the same strong story on the storage side of the business. What's unique about these units is that the majority come to us used. We've established a best-in-class modernization facilities that are enabled by the inventory management systems that Graeme touched on. We can put these assets into service with a new life as a storage container. Again, circular by design. With minimal annual maintenance, we're able to get an IRR roughly 30% over a 30-year lifetime.
Here again, VAPS amplifies the circularity of our offerings for storage. Timothy showed you some of the VAPS innovations that we're bringing to market. These help us take waste out of the system. It's safer for our customers. They reduce damage to our units, and they drive improved customer value. In summary, the better we drive our circular business model, the more we control our costs and material usage. We enhance our return on capital. We insulate ourselves from supply chain disruptions and price volatility, and we have a great story for our customers. That drives growth. Now we're taking that to a whole new level with FLEX. Hopefully you saw FLEX when you came in and got tested. FLEX is a panelized product, which means that the walls can be reconfigured and reused. That essentially eliminates wood waste.
In addition, through a number of features, we're able to reduce our customers' carbon footprint and energy costs with FLEX. FLEX also helps us create new market opportunities in at least two ways. First, we can take on complex, unique projects that aren't possible with traditional modular space. Bradley mentioned the project at the University of California, San Diego. That was at the Stonehenge historical location, and there were numerous 100-foot-tall Torrey pines and eucalyptus trees that are protected there. We were the only vendor that was able to come in and perfectly fit the units around those without causing any damage to the trees, the historical stone figures or the roads. The second new market opportunity is brought about by the ability to scale efficiently across the timeframe of a project without changing the project footprint.
Bradley showed you an example of this as well, where, for example, we can start with 30 units, and as the project scales up, we can add another 30 as a second or third story and continue to grow with the customer and then ramp down as needed. We think this is a fantastic alternative to traditional permanent workspace with what we're seeing right now with companies needing to respond to expanding, contracting a remote workforce. This is a huge step forward for the industry, led by WillScot. FLEX serves all of our current markets with an improved ESG profile. As I said, it opens up new market opportunities. FLEX is really the platform that will help us capture new market share in the sustainable economy. Now we're gonna switch and talk about climate.
Compared to other industrial companies, our greenhouse gas footprint and our risk is small, but we can still make an impact, and that directly aligns with cost efficiency and customer benefits. We're looking at a number of fuel efficiency measures to reduce our emissions, including the logistics optimization that Timothy and Graeme talked about, and expanding the use of telematics and cameras. We're also looking at alternative and emerging fuels, so we're currently piloting a renewable natural gas delivery truck. We talked about insourcing logistics. As we do that, we reap those benefits of fuel efficiency and alternative fuels on that additional fleet as well. Again, these efforts reduce our fuel costs, reduce our risk, and help us win contracts with like-minded customers, all of which support our logistics and market penetration growth levers. Moving now to safety.
Safety extends beyond just our branches and our yards and includes travel on roads and highways and our activities at customer sites. In essence, our company's been on a mission transforming the industry through the more than 75 acquisitions that we've brought in over the past decades using best-in-class safety processes and innovation. This continues with every new acquisition that we make. Today, we're operating at the highest levels of safety across all our combined entities. We're far below the industry average TRIR of 2.6, and we've reduced our own TRIR performance by over 50% since 2015. Customers increasingly focus on safety performance in their sourcing decisions, and employees want to work for companies that prioritize safety. Both of these enable our growth. Okay, now I'm gonna switch gears a little bit and talk about human capital management.
If you think back to what I said earlier about ESG removing our constraints to growth, that could not be more true than when it comes to our people. We offer many, many programs and benefits to our employee, many of which are best in class. What we think is the real game changer is how we're aligning these programs to drive targeted outcomes that will most fuel our growth trajectory. Let's take a look at a couple of examples. Thinking about inclusion and diversity, we have a framework and a steering committee so that we can stand up what we call inclusiveness resource teams or IRTs as they're requested by the employee population. These teams provide visibility, development opportunities, and a sense of belonging to diverse employees and their advocates.
We also have a robust learning and development platform with over 1,600 courses, including compliance-related courses, role-based training, and other employee-initiated training. We layer development, mentoring, and leadership training on top of that. We also provide tuition reimbursement for those who need or want it. We use our L&D platform to not only provide a pipeline of diverse candidates at every level in the company, but also to ensure that our employees are growing with the business. Of course, we want our employees to be healthy and well, both in the face of a global pandemic and in the day-to-day lifestyle choices that they make. From PPE to decontamination protocols when our units come off rent to best-in-class benefits package that includes smoking cessation and adoption assistance, we've got them covered.
Finally, due to our scale, we're now able to bring new engagement opportunities to our entire workforce in two ways. First, we recently launched our giving platform called Give Where You Live. We're super excited about this because employees can now partner with the local charity of their choice across all 275+ of our locations in a way that's most meaningful to the employee. We also still offer company-wide partnerships like Habitat for Humanity, where we're able to provide giving opportunities in the normal course of our business. For example, the temporary use of our storage containers at a Habitat build site. A study by Forbes found that 93% of employees will stay longer at a company when the company invests in their career development.
In addition, workers who give their time and money through workplace giving programs are more productive, and they identify more strongly with the company's overall vision. With our growth strategy, we cannot risk having roles unfilled and people not highly engaged or developing to take on what's next. Simply put, employees that are healthy and engaged have lower turnover and absenteeism, higher productivity and safety performance, and they drive higher customer satisfaction scores. All of these KPIs fuel our growth trajectory. I want to end with an example of a program that wraps many of these concepts together. It helps us bring in diverse candidates for difficult to fill roles. It drives engagement and development of current employees, and it helps our company grow. Coincidentally, it helps solve a social challenge.
It starts with looking at non-traditional candidates from our local communities, those who may not feel like they have much of a future or are wondering how they can participate in the American dream. For example, think about veterans who serve our country, and then they come back, and they struggle to find a meaningful career. Or people that need a second chance because of a mistake they've made in their past. Or someone who's looking at a lifetime of minimum wage jobs. We want to bring these candidates in as entry-level drivers, skilled trades, and sales, thereby expanding our pool of applicants for these difficult to fill positions. Make no mistake about it, these are great jobs. They're above minimum wage with great benefits, working for a great team with the potential for advancement.
Once these folks are in, we wanna give these employees every opportunity to reach for their dreams and help us grow at the same time through access to the programs we mentioned on the previous slide. We have many instances where we've already done this, and we find that not only do we change the employee's life, we also change their family's lives and the way they interact with the community. I'll tell you a little secret. We also find that these folks become some of our most loyal and engaged employees. This is another reason why we call our program, our ESG program Delivering Opportunity. This is a strategy that's intended to make sure we have the people we need to drive growth while lifting up those left behind in our communities.
We recently deployed this for drivers, and we'll use the same playbook for skilled labor and sales going forward. As I said in the beginning, when we execute on our ESG initiatives, our business performs better, and we remove constraints to growth. I hope that connection is now very clear. Thank you for your time, and I'll turn it back over to Hezron.
For some reason, I won't get those transition lenses. Thanks, Jamie. Now let's discuss our board, guardrails, and next steps. From a board perspective, we have proper oversight, expertise, and strategic leadership, and we intend to enhance our board in a couple areas. First, we intend to enhance our board's relevant skills with the skills you see to the right of this slide. Second, we plan to diversify, which we've already begun to do in two important ways. First, Becky Owen has been appointed to our board, where she brings significant governance expertise and end market experience in the retail, commercial real estate, hospitality, and construction industries. Second, we've retained Russell Reynolds as our Evergreen partner to recruit diverse board talent with enhanced skills to be part of our board. We've also asked them to maintain a bench of skilled director talent to join our board as vacancies arise.
Now to oversight. Last year, we brought together two best-in-class companies. As a larger, more dynamic organization, we have greater opportunities, accountability, and ownership. For proper oversight and enterprise risk mitigation, we have a bottoms-up approach from the branch to our Audit Committee, where we detect, anticipate, and mitigate risks to our business. As an across-the-board approach, we have the Nominating and Governance Committee overseeing our ESG strategy, and we have the compensation committee overseeing our human capital strategy. From a top-down tone from the top approach, we have the full board looking across the entire enterprise and overseeing our business strategies and our ESG approach. That's quite a bit, as you can see from our key takeaways here. On to what's next. In 2022, we will publish our ESG goals.
We expect our shareholders to vote to remove our current classified board structure at our 2022 annual meeting. By the end of 2023, we intend to issue our first ESG sustainability report based on the SASB framework. We believe in ESG, and we're excited about the value that it will unlock for all of our stakeholders. Now, to remain updated on our progress, you may visit our ESG micro site, which will be updated on a quarterly basis. Thank you. I now invite back our President and CFO, Timothy D. Boswell .
Thanks. I appreciate it. Yeah. Just unless there's any doubt, we do things the right way. Hezron is always watching, and he's got two sets of glasses to prove it. Thank you. I'm excited for you to hear from Graeme, Jamie, and Hezron because technology and ESG will be critical enablers of our strategy. They're huge differentiators in terms of how we do things relative to everybody else that we compete against, and our customers care about that increasingly, especially the big ones. We don't undertake functional initiatives for their own sake. We undertake initiatives that align directly with and support our growth strategy. That's exactly how we're using technology and ESG. They increased our probability of success in all of the key categories that we're focused on today.
VAPS, you know, technology, inventory management, the ability to improve inventory turns, reduce scrap and waste clearly aligns with growth, aligns with our customer interests, and aligns with our shareholder interests. If you think about lease rate optimization, clearly technology-enabled and also has a governance benefit in terms of allowing us to be better stewards of your capital. Market penetration, as we looked about data and analytics technology, clearly enabled by our tech initiatives. If you think about, like whether it's our world-class safety culture or just the ethical framework that's embedded in our company values, we're committed to doing the things the right way. In expanding our scope and share, we've actually raised the bar operationally across our entire industry. That's something that I and Bradley and the entire team are extremely proud of.
Again, logistics, same thing, technology-enabled, clear environmental benefits, clear operational benefits. These initiatives across the board, top to bottom, they're not just hugely impactful from a financial standpoint. We've prioritized them not just because of that, but they're also, they've got a powerful alignment between, you know, customer interests and employee interests and shareholder interests. When you get that alignment, it can be self-reinforcing, and it then improves your chance of success across each of the initiatives that we're undertaking. That's what we see here. As we talked about, we've got near-term tailwinds. We've got long-term tailwinds. In the near term, I think we're set up, as we talked about on the Q3 call on Friday, to deliver another outstanding year of very high probability, double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.
As we talked about on Friday, if you look at our leasing indicators, again, top to bottom, volume, price, value-added products, we've got momentum across every single one as we go into Q4 and into 2022. We also have a very favorable macroeconomic backdrop. You look across all of the geographies that we serve, you see GDP forecast between 4% and 5%, strongest in the United States. We've had good news around infrastructure, right? I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek earlier when I acknowledged my oversight there. It favorably impacts almost every end market that we serve, right? We break out, call it 8-ish% of revenue that's directly tied to roads and infrastructure. Think about every non-residential general contractor in North America. Think about domestic manufacturing, think about utilities.
We've got top customers across all these sectors that are either gonna be direct or indirect beneficiaries of that type of reinvestment. Even if you go into the social infrastructure side of what's being contemplated, there are examples there where we can be an indirect beneficiary of those investments. We don't talk a lot about it because it's outside of our control, but we are better positioned than anybody else in our sector to capitalize on those types of tailwinds when they become a reality in the second half of 2022 or 2023 and beyond. These are long three-five year investments that actually align very well with the medium- and long-term initiatives that we've been talking about through the course of the afternoon. Think of profitability and where we're going from a margin standpoint.
Some of you had questions this year about variable costs in Q2 and Q3 and any potential longer-term implications for our margins. I'll just reiterate, those costs were directly related to a sharp rebound in delivery volume across all of our segments this year. While some are focused on the costs, I and the team are focused on a lease revenue run rate that has snowballed by about 20% from the beginning of the year to the end. As delivery volumes kinda revert to maybe a normal mid-single digit year-over-year growth rate going into next year, margins will be like a coiled spring and about to pop. We're showing here revenue of $1.925 billion-$2.025 billion, $810 million-$850 million of adjusted EBITDA and solid double-digit growth at the midpoint.
What we expect is very healthy margin expansion as all of the lease revenue that we booked through the course of 2021 flows through the P&L in 2022 with a more normal fluctuation in our cost structure. I'm reluctant to even calculate the flow-through that that would imply, but it could be north of 80% in some of the scenarios that we're running. For those that were concerned about margins, it's just a little bit of a reminder that the mechanics of this business are fundamentally different than any other rental model that's out there. It all comes back to just the value of lease duration and the stability that that brings to our top line. That at any point in time, that's what I'm looking at.
I'm looking at the lease revenue run rate in our business, price times volume times VAPS. That tells you exactly where the business is going, and that run rate has been accelerating every quarter for, I think, six quarters now. Capital spending, based on the market outlook and the ability to drive volume growth, across all of our segments next year. I will introduce a slightly higher range than we've had previously. As always, that will be, demand-driven. For those that are newer to the business, we go through a zero-based 90-day capital planning process, meaning we start from scratch. If you run out of branch, we get your demand profile. Centrally, we facilitate an analysis that says, based on that demand profile, here's the most cash-efficient way to meet that demand.
Maybe we're transferring in fleet from other geographies, maybe we're refurbishing a 20-year-old unit, maybe we're buying a local tuck-in acquisition. Oftentimes, it's a lot more efficient to buy used fleet than it is to introduce new supply into the market. Based on that type of waterfall, that means most of the supply chain is really within our control. I don't see a lot of constraints out there, maybe sourcing containers in the U.K. for the second half of 2022, but that's very marginal, right? I think there's nothing here externally from a supply chain standpoint that makes me concerned about being able to invest at this level. I think overall, we can say as a team with confidence that 2022 will be a very strong year.
The underlying growth levers give us confidence not just about next year, but the years that follow, and we see these trends continuing. Where do these trends take us over more of a three to five-year period? You know, overall, they'll just continue to strengthen our financial profile. Again, I'll just reiterate, they're almost all totally within our control, and maybe we can layer in a little M&A on top of this. As we saw last year, the growth drivers are all idiosyncratic. They can overcome a major macroeconomic shock given the stability of our lease portfolio. Any upcycle that we may encounter would only compound favorably with the drivers that we've been talking about all day. We don't, again, spend a lot of time trying to predict the market.
We'll allocate capital on a 90-day basis and ensure that we've got long-term tailwinds in the business that can drive it through a down cycle while delivering year-over-year growth like you saw last year, or really compound powerfully in an upcycle. Mid- to high, you know, single-digit revenue growth seems readily achievable based on everything that we've talked about. I would say generally that growth rate should be higher in our leasing revenue streams, which are the higher value, more predictable part of the business relative to sales or delivery and installation. Double-digit EBITDA growth over an extended period of time with margins expanding into the mid-40s. We're pushing 40% as we speak, so I think that's very realistic. Free cash flow margins will follow EBITDA margins logically, given the operating leverage in our fleet.
You know, since closing the merger, we've been just shy of a 20% free cash flow margin, and we can see these expanding to 25% with upside over a three-five year period. We see a clear path to the $500 million free cash flow milestone that we announced over 20 months ago before knowing the impacts of COVID. These multiyear estimates are simply implications of really the growth levers that we talked about that are in our control, assuming we continue to execute at a high level. When we look out several years, the implications of that type of growth and free cash flow generation and the implications for capital accumulation and allocation are pretty profound.
To illustrate the point, let's just assume a future free cash flow milestone of $650 million on the right-hand side of the page. This would be about an 85% increase from where we are. Three fifty was kind of our target for this year. We'll eclipse five hundred run rate second half of next year. This is a logical stop along the journey. We're starting at a midpoint of our guidance range this year of $730 million of EBITDA. If you layer in $420 million of growth, mind you, that's right at or actually slightly below the low end of the ranges of the initiatives that we've been talking about. Again, we'll win some, we'll lose some.
Some may eclipse those estimates, but in a reasonable period of time, getting to $1.150 billion of Adjusted EBITDA is realistic. Maybe we're investing at the higher end of our CapEx range, $280 million, to support robust growth. Let's assume we maintain conservative, leverage-neutral balance sheet of around three turns of net debt to EBITDA, so interest costs go up from $100 million cash run rate today to more like $150 million. Layer in maybe some working capital usage, maybe some tax, although we think we've got opportunities in both areas for an extended period of time. You get to, I think a realistic formula, that gets to $650 million of free cash flow.
Now, this isn't intended to be a precise roadmap, right? There will be variability around every element in that bridge, so the exact recipe will undoubtedly change. But it is a realistic recipe, right, which drives 85% free cash flow growth over a multi-year period. If we're successful in ramping to that level, it would imply about $4 billion of cumulative cash flow from operations over a five-year period and at least another $1 billion of capital availability by maintaining leverage at 3x net debt to EBITDA. Together, that would be, you know, between $5 billion and $6 billion of cumulative capital availability over the period, which is equivalent to 60%-75% of our current market capitalization, creating a massive opportunity to reinvest and compound returns. How would we envision redeploying the capital?
As we talked about on the Friday call, Q3, actually, and somewhat coincidentally, serves as a very good formula for how we can allocate capital going forward. By maintaining a leverage-neutral balance sheet, we had about $210 million of capital available for redeployment. We took about 25% of that, and we reinvested in organic capital expenditures, given the growth that we're seeing in value-added products. Storage container fleet is running tight. We've got tightness in some of our other segments. So we're more than happy to invest given the unit economics that we have. And we'll invest wherever we see that organic opportunity. But I think 25% is a realistic mix based on our scale. We invested another 25% in three tuck-in acquisitions. That'll continue to be part of the formula as well.
That left about 50% of our cumulative capital availability in the quarter available for returns to shareholders, and that's exactly what we did. Now what we need to do is be comfortable that we can replicate this formula at scale, right? Using the graphic on the left as a guide, 25% of the capital levels that we're talking about, between $5 billion and $6 billion, it implies between $250 million and $300 million of organic CapEx annually over that period. Realistic range. Slower growth scenario may be on the lower end, higher growth may be on the higher end, but reasonable.
If you allocate 25% to M&A, it implies, you know, depending on valuation, give or take, $150 million of acquired Adjusted EBITDA, which could take you further to the right-hand side of the screen in terms of annualized free cash flow in the top row. That still leaves between $2.5 billion and $3 billion for shareholder returns, hence the billion-dollar share repurchase authorization that our board recently approved. All this hangs together pretty well from my perspective. Based on these alternatives, the chart to the right shows the power of the business model to compound returns over a multiyear horizon. Clearly, organic free cash flow growth is the strongest value creation lever that we have. Sometimes people focus more on the M&A.
The tailwinds that we have organically are the most powerful drive in the business and can drive 80%+ free cash flow growth largely within our control. Acquisitions can enhance that. Depending on acquisition volumes, surplus capital, we would have the capacity to repurchase between 20%-30% of our shares outstanding, again, depending on pricing and timing and those assumptions, but I think our assumptions are at least a realistic and reasonable scenario. The combination of these levers suggest that free cash flow per share could double or triple over the three-five year time horizon from where we are today. Between our organic growth portfolio and the ability to execute smart accretive M&A, and our capacity to repurchase our own stock, we see multiple pathways to drive 20%+ compound annual free cash flow per share growth over an extended period of time.
As I hope you're beginning to appreciate, WillScot is a very powerful compounder with long-duration revenue streams and idiosyncratic growth drivers that will unfold predictably over the years, given our demonstrated best-in-class execution. We have transformed this platform from a capital efficiency standpoint and have a formula that delivers both sustainable growth as well as attractive returns on invested capital growing into the mid-teens. The ability to use conservative leverage, given the stability of our platform, expands our capacity to create value. Our strategy is holistic, you know, focusing on initiatives that find a powerful alignment between customer, company, and shareholder interests, delivering value to all those constituents.
The metrics on the right-hand side of the page provide a framework where we think the business should operate over the medium and long term, and there are some milestones in there that I think we could probably eclipse. I'm sure you'll all have lots of questions for us in the coming days, and we'll be available to discuss those. As we progress into future periods, we'll continue to be as transparent as possible around, you know, where we think we're overachieving, where we think we're falling short in the progress within each of these operating ranges. I hope the material has been helpful for you today. I hope you share the enthusiasm that I and our team have for the future of WillScot Mobile Mini, and wanna give Bradley a chance to give us some closing remarks here.
All right, I'll be brief. I'm between you guys' questions and alcohol, and I don't know which you're more anxious to get to. I mean, the growth levers, they're largely in our control. They're not new. We know how to drive them, and they're gonna yield billions of dollars of surplus capital to deploy with full optionality. Right. Given the predictable nature of the model, which I think you've seen over the last four years of the journey for those of you that have been with us that long, it's highly predictable. We have clear line of sight, and we're resetting to a pretty significant milestones.
From the $1 billion of EBITDA that we have high confidence in achieving with a ton of upside to 45% EBITDA margins, right, to $650 million free cash flow, to $4 of free cash flow a share and 15% returns on invested capital. We've got the recipe, we've got the team to make this happen. Technology and that team are our comparative advantage. They underpin everything we do, and again, give me high confidence in going where I know we will go. Our circular business model is already highly compelling. We're gonna leverage that, build on our core values, and use ESG to provide that accelerant to make sure our human capital never becomes a constraint to what I think are vast opportunities and abundance growth.
We'll use the constraints to make sure we have a fully inclusive environment, and we can unlock the power of every employee. We joke, if an employee is here, and they're happy with our ESG journey, they'll never leave. An employee's not here, they're gonna knock on our door and ask to join our team, and that's what we'll define as true north. With that, I'll just wrap it up. I think we're absolutely a category of one. With that, I'd like to welcome the presenters back to the stage, and we'll do as much Q&A as our young Nick will allow. Then we'll take a break and have some fun outside. Timothy is going to be the traffic director. I'll let Timothy pick and direct questions.
We're gonna grab some chairs, but why don't we just get started while we're getting everything in place. Raise your hand first, so...
The last time I'm on, so. I'll narrow it down. What's kinda interesting is I think, folks, that starting with you folks back in 2017, you're clearly in a much better position competitively than you were back then, if you think about fragmentation against the mod space and mobile manufacturing consolidation. When you look at those free cash flow numbers, though, I mean, you think about capital deployment, one thing that seemed notably absent was a dividend. How do you think about dividend versus growth? Given the relative market share of modular already versus storage, are there other verticals that you can go into? I mean, on one of the slides, and I don't know if it was just illustrated, but you talked about commercial storage and maritime containers. Are those kind of tangential businesses that you can start to scale?
'Cause you know, the math suggests three-quarters of your market cap is gonna be cash. I don't know if you can acquire enough in any of your existing verticals.
Yeah.
I mean, in a positive way. Give me some thoughts on that.
Yeah. Why don't I start on the dividend question and Brad, maybe you can think about our how we view the adjacent markets.
Yeah.
'Cause it's a place where we search for best practices. It's a place we search for talent, and we do a lot of those things, so that are probably underappreciated in terms of how we operate today. In terms of the dividend, it's a good question, right? It's something that the board with us we revisit frequently. The fact of the matter is, we've got a lot of opportunity to continue to grow this business, both organically and through M&A.
We believe that where we see the business going over a three, five, seven-year period, that repurchasing the stock today is the right thing to do with our capital, and we can revisit that question at any point in the future, should we so choose. You know, the predictability of the top-line revenue stream is such that, yes, we can absolutely support a dividend. Reinvesting in our business today, I believe, is the strongest way to compound returns for our shareholders.
Yeah. I'd just add with respect to adjacent markets, you're thinking of the Venn diagram, which I loved. Yeah, we're probably not going into maritime containers, but just we're, you know, we're participating in some way in each one of those large dynamic markets.
Maybe visualize more our total site solution chart, where I said, right now we're really focused on turnkey modular office and storage solutions. Timothy took you through hundreds of millions of growth by just packing every office we send and every storage unit full of apps. That next space, which is really the managed services around, I think that's a pretty interesting adjacency. It's extremely relevant, and we're already in that space today. In some ways you can kind of bifurcate. You know, the unit downstairs is powered by a gen equipment rental generator. Unlikely I ever have a lot of interest in buying a bunch of generators and putting the balance sheet behind technical items that other people can service better. Fencing, hard panelized commercial fencing, right?
Goes out the day the job starts, comes back three years later. That can be interesting over time. You know, we don't talk about it a lot, but on a per unit basis, 10%-15% of our units already have sanitation facilities in the building. Yeah. The larger complexes I mentioned, almost all have sanitation services. Now, you know, it's a wide range there, right? Do I wanna get into pumping those every day or week? Maybe or maybe not. We're already in the space. That's the way I would think about the adjacencies. You know, we've got vast opportunities that we talked about today that really don't have us tipping in in any serious way to any of those adjacencies.
You know, looking further afield, that's why I think, you know, opportunities are vast and no end market's gonna define or constrain our growth.
Ross Gilardi had a question in the back.
Thanks, Tim. I mean, everything you laid out today shows you clearly have got tons of growth opportunities in a number of different directions. Are you trying to signal a strategic shift towards organic over M&A, or are you just trying to make the point that you can kind of go either way? Then I have a follow-up to that.
I think it's just the reality of what we have in the hopper today, right? Both Mobile Mini and WillScot historically always had pretty strong. I know we did on the WillScot side, a pretty strong underlying organic growth trajectory that was kind of overshadowed by some transformational M&A. We just had our entire broader leadership team together within the last month, and one of the things that struck me with our combined scale, with the expertise from all corners of the organization, we can just undertake a lot more at one time than we have ever been able to undertake before. Then we've got the technology platform to allow us to do that efficiently.
Whether there's M&A opportunity out there or not, the organic levers that we have are just so powerful and so accretive that we're absolutely gonna prioritize them and not let M&A get in the way of capturing that value. We've always been inquisitive, right? I think we can have clear line of sight to a steady cadence of local and regional tuck-ins. Big transformational transactions are hard to predict in terms of the timing, so let's just stay focused on the stuff that's within our control. If those opportunities materialize, we'll take a look. If they're strategic and accretive, we'll execute them. In the meantime, there's a lot of stuff that's within our control to drive a heck of a lot of value creation.
All right. Thank you. You made a comment earlier on that really struck me about the pricing dynamics really driven much more by the value add of the service rather than the supply and demand characteristics of the industry.
Yeah.
If that's the case, why wouldn't you tilt towards, you know, a more aggressive fleet growth type strategy, which clearly everything you've laid out, I don't think that's the case. Why wouldn't that be the case?
Brad, do you maybe wanna provide some comments on that one?
Yeah. Yeah. I'm happy to. I'd remind everyone that WillScot legacy platform had achieved 10% year-over-year rate growth in late 2017 with about a 17% market share. We're sitting at, call it, 45% market share today, and you've seen that continue to accelerate. That's not been because of, you know, direct supply-demand balances. I think the other thing I would caution folks is don't get too caught up on the M&A or not, right? Think of that market convergence points. If we have nearly twice the market share of modular that we do in storage, 80% of the customers need both. We already have the in-house demand, if you will, to fuel that convergence.
If I have the option any day to buy used fleet, right, versus adding new supply to a market, we'll do it all day long. Think of M&A as almost funding market convergence in other aspects. Certainly the underlying economics are there. If the local market's constrained, as Timothy said, we'll invest accordingly, and make sure we're not missing anything.
Courtney. Scott, I'll get you next. Yep.
Thanks. You obviously threw a lot of growth levers at us today, and mentioned this a couple of times that, you know, some might exceed expectations, some might fall short. Can you just help us understand maybe, you know, two or three that you view as the highest probability? Maybe it's not the full amount that's on the slide or the full range. Just give us a sense of which you think are most probabilistic versus kind of the more aspirational.
Yeah. I'll give you my first two, just because they're already in motion. You know, modular pricing and modular VAPS, they're happening today. Naturally, I attach a higher degree of probability to those two. Remember, the modular pricing opportunity assumed no further rate increases. It just assumed the ongoing churn of our portfolio. Now, we're rolling out ground level offices in the Mobile Mini branch network. Early indications are really, really good. You've got individual branches where you've got 80% penetration, you know, driving very attractive values per unit. But you gotta scale that across the entire branch network. We're gonna start rolling it out through the course of the remainder of the year and through next year. You layer in a container VAPS initiative, you know, Q2, Q3 of next year. Those are naturally lower probability and longer in duration.
We've done those types of things before, which give us confidence they should be on the page.
Yeah. I would say I'm equally as confident in storage rate and storage VAPS and storage market share improvement.
Yeah.
Right? It's a little longer play, but I mean, heck, we just closed three transactions in a weekend and added 11,000 units to our fleet. It's, you know. The evidence is there that it can be done. Just think of that as, okay, we're launching those now, so it's gonna take a few years to get to the rates we're talking about. Then because of the three-year average lease duration, it takes three more years to harvest and see it all the way, you know, roll through the P&L. I'm as equally as confident in those. They're just probably contributing more to the $1+ billion than they are in the recipe, if you will, to get to the $1 billion.
If I could just follow up. I know it seems like you're de-emphasizing the M&A part of the equation, but you know, you've broadened out your total addressable market from the $5 billion core, you know, to close to a $10 billion today. Should we also be thinking about the M&A opportunities expanding beyond, you know, what we've considered kind of those, you know, more regional tuck-in players within core storage and modular office?
Yeah. No, again, I'd be really careful saying we're de-emphasizing M&A, where I think if you think about that market convergence, the best thing we can do is fund that through M&A. You know, what we're trying to do here is make sure we don't double count, right? We've got a pretty robust portfolio as it exists. I think, you know, we continue to drive kind of that cross sell, as we originally said, to make sure we're winning both storage and modular on every acquisition, right? We don't need to make acquisitions to pack those units full of storage, right, and furniture and such. As you then leg further into the managed services, you know, if we really wanted to establish scale in one of those other markets I mentioned, fencing as an example, that's not a prediction.
You know, a lot of our units are already, you know, with sanitation. That's not a prediction. All of those are pretty fertile opportunities. I think if you've learned one thing with our platform, if we do something, we do it with scale, right? We make sure, we make darn sure we're relevant in that space. You know, my kinda definition of relevance is a pretty high threshold. It's absolutely, you know, kind of the territory in which we can, the incubator, if you will, where we can look for other opportunities further afield from turnkey office and storage. We won't take our eye off that ball either.
I’d just add, Courtney, the expansion of the market opportunity, the $5 billion is kind of predicated on.
The rental revenue associated with an empty box, and that's how the industry always thought. The $10 billion is simply a recognition that we do a lot of other stuff to capture value, whether it's delivery and installation. I mean, the VAPS offering is entirely new to the industry within the last, you know, seven years. So it's just an acknowledgement that the market that we're serving is actually a heck of a lot bigger than maybe people thought five years ago. I think Scott was next back here.
Yeah, thanks.
I got you next.
I have essentially three questions, and Timothy, mostly for you. Two on 2022, and then one longer term. Looks like about a $35 million step-up in CapEx next year. Just curious what's behind that. It's been GLOs and VAPS recently.
Mm-hmm.
Just if you can elaborate on that. Second question, and I can go back and repeat as needed. Just the components-
Young Nick can track that.
All right. I'll stop there.
Okay, look, it's gonna be demand driven, so it'll be what it'll be. We think it's gonna be a strong demand year next year, right? Yes, we're gonna continue converting GLOs. Love the economics. The Mobile Mini branch network absorbs those as readily as we can convert them. Fortunately, we have pre-purchased a lot of the parts and supplies needed to do that, such that I don't see a supply constraint to execute the GLO conversions next year. Value-added products, if it keeps growing like it's growing, yes, we'll continue to fund it. The biggest variable will probably be refurbishment investment in the modular business, so around 70% utilization today. If we're gonna aggressively grow, you know, units on rent next year, there will be a higher refurbishment component as volumes grow.
We are buying some used and select targeted new fleet for the storage segment, the U.K. segment, and as well as tank and pump right now. If the demand doesn't materialize or if we find more efficient ways to fund it, then we could be at the lower end. Just gonna set the expectation that if we're gonna be in a growth environment for the next couple of years, we will allocate the organic capital to support it.
Thanks. Second question's a quick, easy one. The breakdown of you said mid to high single digit revenue growth next year.
Yeah.
Price volume breakdown, and I think you alluded on Friday to we should be seeing some positive volume for the next year. Just a little elaboration. Thanks.
Yeah. I mean, let's just focus on the core North America modular and storage. You know the rate trajectory that North America modular is on. We just kinda gave you the rate trajectory that North America storage is on. I think those are some starting points that we can work with. In North America modular, as I cautioned in Q2, 19% year-over-year, 20% year-over-year, those are big numbers. It wouldn't surprise me if they tapered a bit, but they'll be in the double digits. Storage volumes, I think you're in a position where you could drive 5%+ unit on rent growth next year.
On North America modular, if you're in that low single digits has that portfolio in FLEX™ in probably the early Q1 timeframe, that'll put us in a position where you could drive kinda low single digit volume growth in that segment.
Yes, appreciate that. The last one is the longer term. Looking at, you know, 40% incremental margin this year, going up to, in that slide, you said potentially 80%-
Yeah.
incremental margin next year. That's impressive.
It's just timing, though. That's just, it's impressive on the one hand, but that's just a function of the fact that lease revenue in our business doesn't move quickly, right? Deliveries move quickly. Associated variable cost can move quickly. The lease revenue stream is like a slowly compounding snowball, right? It's been doing that all year. Next year, we're just gonna enjoy a much more elevated run rate for the entire year, whereas it was building during the course of this year. I think that's probably, you know, if there's one misunderstanding in terms of the mechanics of how this business works, that people just take a little time to understand, it's how long lease duration with short-term fluctuations kinda impact the bottom line results.
That's the question on for three-five years out on what kind of-
Put forth today.
What is that implied incremental flow through and what's the variability of that? Thanks.
Yeah, yeah, sure. I mean, we've been pretty consistent. You know, if you're getting volume growth in the business, you can be seeing 60%+ flow through. Value-added products is obviously flowing through around 75%, and pricing growth is flowing around 90%. Depending on the relative mix of those, it should be a, you know, 60%+ flow through business. I think that's consistent with how the Mobile Mini team would have articulated historically as well.
Hey, guys. Price mix has been a big part of your story. As you kind of fully ramp up VAPS and your price optimization tools, how should we think about the runway for portable storage from AMR growth standpoint? And then separately, from a CapEx standpoint, back of envelope math, I think it was like $250-$275 of CapEx over the three to five years. Help us understand what kind of unit on rent growth you're assuming in these two businesses. The reason why I ask is I wanna get a better handle on your view on cross-selling, just because it seems like a pretty big opportunity longer term.
All right. First question, you maybe wanna take storage AMR growth as the first part of it, and I can talk about volume.
Yeah. Let me understand again your question. Your first part of your question.
The AMR growth
Yeah.
for storage, how do you kind of envision that ramping up over time? Is it gonna be that percent range? Is it 5%, 6%?
This is one I mentioned before. You've got to, you know, keep in mind the three-year average lease duration. You know, we've got the same, let's say, levers, if you will, on storage that we've been executing on North American modular. We're already driving improved new rates, right? If you drive only improved new rates, you know, as the units roll over three years, it's gonna take you three years to see that move through ARR, the AMR. Storage also participates in a kind of a repricing, if you will, on a periodic basis. That repricing has been less aggressive than we've had on the modular side. We're gonna push and test that lever as well. Timothy mentioned duration pricing.
I think, you know, low single digits, right, accelerating over time as we introduce the structured technology, and we introduce some of these additional levers or refinements, if you will. I, you know, I think that's one, as I mentioned before, maybe it's not as big a contributor in the runway between $700 million of LTM EBITDA, but and $1 billion, but I think it really starts to compound and drive after that. The other point we probably didn't touch on enough is the legacy Mobile Mini fleet is almost exclusively this premium product that you saw to the left of the coffee out front. It's Tri-Cam locking, easy opening doors, right? Completely differentiated patented technology, right? As we expand market share, the majority of that market's being supplied by ISO standard boxes.
This is another variable as we move forward. We can't assume the entire market's gonna want to pay a significant premium for this legacy premium product. The market will tell us. I mean, this year we've already rolled in all the standard WillScot boxes. We just bought another 11,000. We couldn't convert them fast enough to the premium. That's the other equation here I'd like caution folks to think through is, you know, we don't absolutely know, right? But as we grow market share and market penetration here, primarily on storage, the market's gonna tell us what the right outcome is. And the beauty in it is, from a return perspective, if we don't have to invest in those upgraded doors, it's fine if rates are a little lower, right?
If the market wants, right, this premium upgrade, we'll convert all the units as quickly as we can, but we're gonna make sure we harvest that benefit back in rate, and continue to drive the compound the value creation here.
On the volume side of the question, it's tough to give you like prescriptive assumptions three, five years out. You know, on the modular business, I think if you're looking at volume growth in that 1%-3% range, given where our share resides today, that's an area that we should be able to deliver. It might strike you as low, but just think about the impact of 30-month lease duration. It's very difficult to move the entire volume in the portfolio much faster than that in a period of as short as 12 months, right? On the storage side, I think you can go a little bit higher. You know, we're lower in terms of share.
Certainly, if you layer in, tuck in acquisitions, you could be growing at above that, you know, 5% or so above that market rate. I don't know the exact formula looking three-five years out. The purpose of that bridge was not to, you know, give you a specific pricing or volume assumptions. It was to say, is this a recipe that's reasonable? We do a lot of different scenarios when we're modeling, and it's a reasonable scenario.
Thank you.
Dan, in the back.
Let me first say congratulations, since I was first meeting you in summer of 2017. Quite a journey. Congratulations.
Thank you.
Timothy, the first one will be for you. Given the amazing opportunities, both inorganically, organically, with your share price, M&A, whatever it may be, why not keep leverage where it is now or even elevate it from being, let's say, above the target plan in your history to run this business at a very high level of leverage, some of which is driven by the market, but the market, I think, has a different understanding of your business now.[Inaudible]
It's a fair question, especially at today's interest costs. You know, all leverage is not created equal, and when your blended average cost of debt is 3.8%, I think there's a debate to be had there. You know, we do have a high degree of confidence in the growth outlook as well, and that is why we have kept leverage at 3.7 for the last couple of quarters. Because what did we have? We had good organic opportunities, we had good tuck-in M&A opportunities, and we had some pretty interesting share repurchase opportunities. It's something that we debate all the time.
I think your point around continued market education around why is this business model more resilient and more different and more deserving of operating with a higher leverage level is something important to talk about, and we'll keep having that conversation with folks.
The only bit I would add, Dan, is for me, it just provides additional optionality, right? We've said this forecast doesn't assume any, like, medium or large scale M&A. We don't know when and if those will ever present themselves. We've already shown if we see the opportunity, we're confident and comfortable to take leverage up, right? Because we know we're gonna bring it right back down. You know, it's hard to imagine why we wouldn't naturally delever to around three anyway.
Holding it around three, if something great comes along, you can move quickly, right? If you wanna do it more debt financed, you got full optionality without, you know, really pushing leverage even, you know, into that, like, high four level. Which we've done before. We were comfortable to do. We said we'd bring it down, and we did. From my perspective, as I think about that, I kinda land myself back around the 3x because it does just provide additional optionality.
Makes sense. You know, Bradley, I guess this one's for you. You know, first you were extraordinarily excited about ModSpace, right? Then it was (uncertain). The excitement was extreme, and obviously you executed and the opportunity is still there. Like, if you think about those periods of time and you think about your opportunity ahead of the company now, like, it may not be a fair question, but your level of both excitement and confidence today versus those two amazing opportunities.
Yeah.
How would you just give us perspective on how you guys are thinking about it today versus, you know, the last five years?
Yeah.
Yeah. Who'd ever guess modular trailers and storage could be so darn fun? No, my confidence is higher. You know, look at the amazing team we've built, right? If you look across the back and up here, it's a great cross-section of best-of-breed talent, not just from within modular storage and space, but it's unmatched certainly within this narrow space in any company I've been involved. You know, I had confidence in the team before. I mean, if you'd put a gun to my head and said, "Could this team drive a 6x increase in EBITDA?" I would have told you yes, but I would have been nervous. I'm not nervous now. I'll use the technology platform and the ESG as the other two.
I mean, again, we knew looking into ModSpace, we could acquire, right, integrate it, and harvest massive cost synergies and even more interesting commercial synergies. Done, done, right? Now to have the SAP platform, now we'll start to harmonize the CRM and all the other ancillary applications, if you will. It's all just easier. Yeah, it's. I'm more confident than I was in 2017, and you might have accused me of being arrogant at that time. I think you might have sent me a really nice bottle of liquor, and I said, "I'll open it when we get to, like, $52," or some number that I had penciled out. I went ahead and opened it, I think. Thank you for that.
Thanks, guys.
Yeah.
Congrats. You guys have outlined a pretty nice timetable going forward, where you're gonna have these embedded higher LTM delivered rates. When you just look at the business and the amount of free cash flow it throws off, it's sort of an interesting case study for an LBO. You also have some competitors that are sorta, you know, emphasizing the URI, emphasizing your space. I guess my question is: As a testament of your success, are you concerned at all going forward that there may be a friendly or a hostile offer for your business? And sort of how are you prepared to sort of deal with that in that case?
I'm not afraid. I mean, our objective is always make sure whatever business we own and run is so compelling that if someone does want it, they're gonna pay a hell of a lot. I think that's just a blip in everyone's mind. I mean, look at what we've done here. Yes, URI has, you know, put a toe into primarily the storage market. I don't see that as a threat. In fact, they were a great customer in many regards before. They're responsible operators. It's a vast landscape, as we mentioned. We'll continue to look for growth where we know we can most safely and smartly execute it, and we'll just be nimble.
I think we have time for one more question.
Thanks for the presentation, Brad. Sorry. Obviously, all these growth initiatives look really attractive on paper, and you've proven you can do it. Can you just talk a little bit about how you're incentivizing the troops on the ground, sales personnel and others, in order to achieve this?
Yeah. As Timothy mentioned before, we've already started tweaking commissions, if you will, to really drive two things. One is on both sides, storage and modular, a focus on lease and volume. We're never in a game where we're going to trade one or the other, but so we started to see some harmonization. The same programs and initiatives that have helped support the growth in furniture penetration on modular, we're redoing and rolling them out on the storage side of the business. I mean, it's you take the sales rep has to be confident to sell it, and then the operations have to make it all happen and show up, right? Like that unit downstairs, we have a 24-hour permit, 12:01 A.M. this morning it started, and it's gonna be gone by 11:59 P.M.
We're really focused on not just focusing on the commissions. We also have some, you know, competitions, as Darren would remind me in the back, we don't do contests, we do competitions, to make sure we're driving that market convergence or penetration as you mentioned. We're just having a lot of fun with competitions. We're starting to align commissions. Our kind of broader annual bonus program is basically unchanged from legacy WillScot. In simple terms, it's about 70% EBITDA, right? It's kind of you look two-six months out and then six-12 months out.
The other 30% is basically the composition of the commissions we're paying, which we think is a great indicator of, you know, what we're gonna be dealing with the year following. That recipe's worked. Largely what we're doing right now is tweaking around the edges and harmonizing. Yeah, we'll continue to make sure everyone's appropriately motivated and wants to stay along with this journey.
Let me just add that everybody in this room is a meaningful stockholder as well.
Yeah. Absolutely.
That is the primary component of our long-term incentive plan. It's heavily performance based, at the most senior levels. Everybody's, you know, interests are aligned and motivated to drive the type of results that you've been seeing. Everybody in the room, I think, enjoys and experiences that.
In addition to that, you know, the real folks who are at all of our branches and getting up every day and working hard for us to making sure that these units are clean and delivered on time, and we're delighting our customers. I mean, they're starting at, you know, $25 an hour, for example. If you're making around $50,000 a year, we're delivering about $20,000 worth of benefits to you. You're looking at 4.5% 401(k) contribution. You're looking at nearly 80% contribution from the employer side for your benefits, and you're looking at opportunities for you to grow beyond the starting position that you come into the company. Beyond just the financial metrics that they mentioned, you we want them to stay, we want them to grow, and we're fully behind them.
It's really a great story for us from the bottom up.
Okay. I think with that, folks, we can raise the curtain.
The alcohol on the other side.
Mingle socially. Again, pretty much anybody wearing a tie works for the company, so feel free to corner them and ask your questions.