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Wolfe Research FinTech Forum

Mar 14, 2024

Moderator

Western Union, and thank you everyone for being here with us again, for the afternoon sessions of the Wolfe FinTech Forum. Again, I'm Darren Peller, covering payments and processors and IT services. Really happy to have Western Union with us. I was just saying to Devin, who's the CEO of the company, how I just, I remember going back to 2008 covering the story, and, you know, in reality, there's been a lot of change, actually, at the company, and probably most of it in the time you've been here. It's really been a company that's been, you know, I think, reignited in the last couple of years, and you've been a big part of that.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Thank you.

Moderator

It's really great to have you with us.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

It's great to be here-

Moderator

Um-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

-and we've got Tom Hadley, our head of investor relations, and Matt Cagwin, my CFO, here as well.

Moderator

Thanks, guys. Thanks for being here. Look, I mean, I think starting off higher level, 18 months removed from your Investor Day, and we just touched on a more, more of a revamp go-to-market effort. You know, what have you learned about the business in the last year, year and a half?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So the strength of the brand around the world is a privilege. The strength of the foundation that we have, I had hoped was good, and whether it's our risk and compliance, our payment processing, our agent network, you know, those are all building blocks that have enabled us to actually move faster, Darren, than what I thought we were gonna be able to do. So if you remember, back in October 2022, we laid out the pillars. The first one was stabilize retail, and I think we got a lot of skepticism that that, in fact, after years of cyclical decline, could actually happen.

Moderator

Yep.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And so I was very pleased in the third quarter of 2023 when we got to flat transaction growth globally in retail, and then we sustained that, 'cause lots of people said that was a one-time event. We sustained that into the fourth quarter, and as you know, we're now in the process of shrinking the gap between transactions and revenue. And so the strength of the underlying franchise is evident, and through process improvements, a little bit of hard work, some new talent, we're really making progress against the goals we laid out at our Investor Day in October of 2022.

Moderator

So what played out so far in line with what you would've expected the last year or two, really, on your Evolve 2025 strategy?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Mm-hmm.

Moderator

What may be playing out differently than you expected?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

You know, we'd talked a lot about returning the digital business to double-digit transaction and revenue growth. And starting in the second quarter of... or in the fourth quarter of 2022, we laid out the formula: grow new customers, double digits, that'll lead to double-digit transaction growth, which will lead to double-digit revenue growth. You know, we announced double-digit new customer growth at fourth quarter of 2022. We announced double-digit transaction growth second quarter of 2023, and in the fourth quarter, we were revenue growth of 4% in the digital business and starting to close that gap.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So that has almost gone formulaically like we had laid out and hoped, and so we expect to see, you know, progression quarter over quarter of the narrowing of that gap between transactions and revenue for our digital business. You know, changing the hearts and minds of 10,000 people to have a very customer-first mindset is still a work in progress. We've got a lot of great talent in the business. We've got a lot of people who get up every single day and want to do the right thing for the customers, and that's resulted, frankly, in a lot better customer and agent service. And so I talked about this in the fourth quarter call, you know, we've seen total calls on a higher transaction basis go down by almost a third.

So we've taken almost 10 million phone calls out of the system by just providing a better service to our agents and to our customers, more self-service tools, better transparency about the timing and expectations around the movement of their money. And so I think that's real evidence of kind of bringing the organization along and executing every single day.

Moderator

Can we just touch a little bit more on the blocking and tackling elements of your business that you and I were talking about as we sat down? I remember a meeting we had, maybe so, you know, a few months ago, where we talked about how there were certain aspects you were kinda surprised about when you came on, that the company didn't really offer. I remember thinking about it wasn't always available to send money into, you know, using a bank account.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep.

Moderator

Right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep.

Moderator

In some cases, in some corridors, or there were certain friction elements that you've improved on. You've seen retail now flat, which is a lot better than it was, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep.

Moderator

Give us examples of what you're doing to improve the retail business?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep

Moderator

A nd where that could go.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah, look, a very simple, but it really is about execution, is when I got here, the average retail transaction took about 7 minutes. Now, when you start breaking that down, 80% of our retail transactions come from existing customers. About 80% of those are repeat transactions.

Moderator

Sure.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So I send money to my mom every Friday, the same amount, right? And so last year, we implemented something we call Quick Resend, which literally turned that repeat customer, repeat send into three clicks, right? And so that speeds up the experience for the customer. They don't have to revalidate. They don't have to stand in line. Agent efficiency goes way up, and frankly, there's a lot less errors that then have to be refunded or reprocessed, right? So simple execution, process improvements are making a big difference in the retail business, right?

Moderator

Yeah.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Staffing our call center, so when agents call, and they have a problem, you pick up the phone immediately, and you solve the problem. You don't make the agent wait. You don't make the agent call back. You don't make the customer come back. This is hard to believe, but for our Vigo brand, which is one of our higher-performing areas in the North American market. They focus on the LACA market in Mexico in particular. If you had a refund, you couldn't get a refund in a Vigo location, you had to go to a Western Union location to get the refund. So you couldn't go back to the place you sent the money-

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

You had to go someplace else. By the way, the Western Union agents who were doing Vigo refunds weren't really excited about that prospect either. So you, as a customer, weren't getting the great customer experience that we would desire for you, regardless of channel, brand, market opportunity, so now today you can get a refund in a Vigo. So those kinds of process improvements have made a big difference.

Moderator

Okay. And so we're now, like I said, we're now flat, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep.

Moderator

On a year-over-year basis in retail, after having been negative for some time. Your comps are a little bit tougher though, I guess, right? And so help us understand your conviction around that sustaining at these, you know, flattish or better rates going forward.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep. And so, you know, we continue to work on these process improvements. I told you we're about 1 in 12 call center interactions per transaction. I'd like to get that to be 1 in 20, 1 in 25, so that's all continued upside. We continue to see strength in regions like LACA, which is a strong retail business for us. Surprisingly, we're seeing strength in Europe, right? This was one of the big drags on our retail business. You know, we lost 2 big, important agents there. The team's really been rebuilding our agent network. We've been aggressively implementing some of our new go-to-market strategies, and so, you know, that, in a tough market like Europe with a tough macroeconomic drop, is encouraging that this is, in fact, durable and sustainable.

Moderator

Yeah. When we think about the footprint, obviously, it's an important part for your brand in general and, you know, just generally getting to the business. It's somewhat of a flywheel, right? And so how are you trying to really maximize your footprint in terms of profitability, in terms of efficiency? Just talk about some of the steps you've taken.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah. So we've really shifted the mindset from agent count.

Moderator

Yep.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right? And so in the industry-

Moderator

Yeah, it used to be every quarter, we're at 500,000 and 20,000.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right. In the industry, there was a real emphasis on who has the most agent locations.

Moderator

Sure, sure.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

I think, prior management had set a goal for a million locations.

Moderator

Yep.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

That wasn't really grounded in anything, I'll call it math, science. And so we spent a lot of time working, and we actually talked about this at our Investor Day, kind of how do you determine a great location for an agent? How do you use demographic data? How do you use cell phone data? How do you use competitive intel on where our competitors are and how they're doing, to make sure that you have the right network in the right place, serving the right customers? And then we've put a really big emphasis on productivity. So we are very pleased when we now report, you know, over 400,000 productive locations—not just total locations.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And then, how do we grow productive locations in the right places, has really been the emphasis. So much more emphasis on productivity, much more emphasis on agent prospecting in the right places, not just agent count for agent count.

Moderator

Just remind the audience, you know, from a retail standpoint, what your goal is in terms of, you know, is this a growth business, or is it just kind of holding its own so that digital can really do well?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah. So for many years, as you know, 'cause you followed it, the digital business was growing strong double digits, sometimes even into the mid-20s, low 30s. That was a $400-$500 million business, but the retail business was shrinking 1%-3%.

Moderator

S- sorry.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

The math equation kept the company kind of flattish.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Some years plus one, some years minus one, because you the retail business is $3 billion of revenue, and that shrinking a couple of % is very hard to-

Moderator

Just remind me, what's the mix again? Retail today versus the digital side.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Retail's about 25... About 75%, digital's about 25%.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right, on $4 billion-

Moderator

Yep

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

$4.1 billion of revenue. So think $3 billion-

Moderator

Retail, yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

retail, $1 billion-ish, a little less than a $1 billion-ish on digital. So, and we have consumer services, otherwise known as-

Moderator

Yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

other, which we can come back to.

Moderator

Right, we'll come back to that.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And so that equation just was a very hard equation to propel the whole company. So our goal for Investor Day, and I think we're now well down that path, is to get the retail business to stable revenue.

Moderator

Okay.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

If you can get the $3 billion to stable revenue, the double-digit revenue growth in what's now almost $1 billion, changes the total revenue equation for the company.

Moderator

Totally.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And now you can see yourself getting to mid-single-digit revenue growth in, in the total, because you've stabilized the big chunk of it from shrinking anymore, right? Is there upside beyond that? I remain optimistic as we kind of continue to perfect agent location, agent productivity, market. Different markets have different dynamics in them. And so, but our goal right now is to get that business to revenue stability, continue to grow our digital business double digits, and that equation is a pretty good equation-

Moderator

Right

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

f or the company.

Moderator

That's, I think, you know, still not totally priced into the stock, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right.

Moderator

I mean, I think there's a lot of investors that wanna see that, you know, play out more than one or two quarters.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Correct.

Moderator

Um-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

I mean, you don't, you know, given what our current multiple is, you...

Moderator

Yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

you don't. That's not priced in there yet.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

There's still skepticism on the sustainability of a flat retail business?

Moderator

Well, I think, as you mentioned, I've covered it for a long time, and we've seen some fits and starts, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right.

Moderator

And so now if we can see sustainability, but it sounds like you're, you know, you've made a lot of progress, and you have pretty good conviction in it.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right.

Moderator

Um, and-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And then, you know, on the last call, we introduced this idea of Consumer Services, right? And this was the third part of our Evolve 2025 strategy, where, you know, we are adding products and services. That's our digital wallets, that's our bill pay, that's our retail money order, that's our foreign exchange services, that's our, you know, issuing debit cards out of the wallet, so we have some interchange. Those products and services, which expand the TAM, which expand the value proposition to the 120 million people around the world that we have a privilege to serve. You know, we got on the call last time and said we feel really good about the investments we've made, how they're starting to come to fruition, and we see that as a double-digit revenue grower now into the medium term.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And so-

Moderator

So that certainly helps the overall profile quite a bit.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So that's, you know, $300 million-$400 million of revenue we're saying is now gonna grow double digits. So you add that to the equation with nine hundred million dollar, give or take, digital business growing double digits and a flat retail business, you start to get to a growth equation that's a lot more compelling than maybe what you've been used to-

Moderator

That's fair

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

... on your-

Moderator

That's fair.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

I guess 2008 would be 14-16 years you've been following.

Moderator

When I started covering this stock, yeah.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah.

Moderator

Let's shift to digital before we go back to the consumer services or the ecosystem. Just, I mean, again, it's an area that I think that's, in my opinion, what you've probably made one of the biggest dents on since you've been there, is really showing, like, a more pure, clear strategy around branded digital, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right.

Moderator

I was saying this to you last night even, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah. Yep.

Moderator

There was some confusion over white label sometimes in the past. So you, you're pretty focused-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah

Moderator

right, on the branded offering. You've accelerated it again in terms of both transactions, but there's been some pricing to some degree to help, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah.

Moderator

And so, where are we on that journey first?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah.

Moderator

You know, 'cause I think it grew last, was it 13% or 14% in fourth quarter, if I remember correctly, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah, transactions were 13%, revenue was 4%.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So there was a 9-

Moderator

Spread

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

point delta that we're closing, right? And we believe we can get to, in a reasonable period of time, at least certainly within the Evolve '25 strategy timeframe, revenue and transactions to a 200-300 basis points spread.

Moderator

Yep.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Revenue will keep coming up. We've been able to sustain new customer growth. We continue to see strong transaction growth, so we feel good about that strategy. We're very indexed on that branded business. That is where the competitive market is. It allows us the most control over the customer experience. It enables us to also manage what we talk about, kind of the retail to digital escalator. So, you know, we, on the fourth quarter, talked about now 5% of new digital customers were originated in our retail business, so creating those omni-channel experiences.

Moderator

Makes sense.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

That is a very low-cost CAC. We see 20 million-plus new customers, recent migrants, showing up in our retail business around the world every year, capturing those as they go on their journey-

Moderator

Right

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

from retail to digital.

Moderator

So to your point, to your point, you're keeping retail flat as you're-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Feeding-

Moderator

To some degree, feeding the digital side

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

digital business.

Moderator

Yeah.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right. So that's why we like the branded. It's a lot easier to go from Western Union to Western Union than from Western Union to something else.

Moderator

Sure. So once again, I mean, if we look at the setup for 2024, I mean, you had slightly tougher comps now after what was a good year for transactions-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right

Moderator

In 2023 for digital.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep.

Moderator

You still feel good about that trend in this year?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Look, we exited last year with strong trends. That was less true in 2022. So as you know, there was a little, you know, kind of hiccup in the first part of 2023 as people looked at the exit trends, whether that be margin, whether that be transactions. We exited 2023 with strong trends on every direction to set ourselves up for a great 2024. So I feel good about where we are. I feel great about the guidance that we've provided and, you know, the underlying work that you've been talking about.

Moderator

Yeah.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Improving the processes, improving kind of operational execution is what powers a large global transaction business.

Moderator

Just remind us the timeline of, you know, you implemented some strategic pricing initiatives on the digital side also?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yes.

Moderator

That's partly explaining the spread between the 13% transaction growth and the 4%-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep

Moderator

revenue growth. When do we start anniversarying those again?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep. So we started that process in basically the third quarter of 2023.

Moderator

Uh-huh.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So we launched our new go-to-market strategy, which, for people to remember, included new promotional offers. So, it's a multi-part program, but on the pricing side-

Moderator

Yep

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

it included first-time promotional offers, and it included new customer segment pricing-

Moderator

Yep

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

which we call market-based pricing. So that is basically being competitive in the marketplace in an attempt to increase retention beyond the first promotional pricing. There was a lot of worry that we would put promotional pricing in the marketplace, people would take advantage of it, and never come back. We've been very clear that we've actually seen stronger second and third transactions from those promotional pricing than we did before we had promotional pricing.

Moderator

Some good retention, yeah.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So we're also starting to see it a little bit in retention.

Moderator

Good.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

That happened, we launched that in North America in the third quarter of 2022. We then started rolling it around the world, so we were in Europe, kind of in the fourth quarter of 2022, the first quarter of 2023. We then kind of worked our way into the Middle East, and then the last place we implemented it was in Australia, which would be kind of back half of Q2, beginning of Q3 of 2023. So we're now lapping that, which is part of how you saw revenue growth go 3%, 4%. As we continue to lap it, that's why you can have confidence that that decline or that from the 9 points of delta between transactions and revenue will shrink, 'cause we're just gonna keep lapping what we did, you know, back half of 2022-

Moderator

Right

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

t through middle of 2023.

Moderator

Right. So that sounds like a good setup. When we think about the competitive landscape for everything we're talking about on the consumer side for a moment, just help us understand what's changed, if anything, in the industry from your perspective. We've had, obviously, a number of panelists, some of them touch on this, some of them don't, but what are your thoughts lately?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So I think one of the good things is lots of people last year at this time were quite worried about the macroeconomic effect around the world, whether that be Europe because of geopolitics, whether that be the Middle East, whether that be potentially not a soft landing in the United States. So there was a lot of worry, and our customers, remember, are at the lower end of the socio and economic strata around the world. What's actually transpired is labor shortages and the continued demand for those occupations, whether it be in agriculture, whether it be in hospitality, whether it be in construction, have remained strong, and so we've continued to see very consistent principal per transaction. We've continued to see strength in transaction growth. So the competitive environment has benefited...

Yeah, competitors get aggressive when the world is shrinking, as they try to keep their fair share. In a world in which is growing a bit, it makes the competitive environment-

Moderator

Right

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

a little bit easier, and so that macro backdrop has been very, very helpful. And then obviously, you know, you see strong competitors on the digital side continuing to invest in their business and grow their business. But I think we're a player again. So, you know, we, we are back in the hunt on both the retail and digital side, and, you know, people are paying attention.

Moderator

Can we touch on the opportunities on the ecosystem, which, I mean, for the longest time, I've thought there's a natural cross-sell to these, you know, relatively underbanked, in many cases, consumers. And, you know, who better than you guys, who is trusted with financials-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep

Moderator

reason to do it? So tell us a little more on the journey of, you know, how that's been going for you guys, and-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep

Moderator

what products are really resonating with, your users?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep, so we're seeing real strength in what we consider to be our transactional financial services, and so that would be bill pay-

Moderator

Uh-huh

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

both in the United States, Argentina. That would be retail money orders, so this was a product that was kind of left for dead when I arrived.

Moderator

Mm-hmm.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

But there's actually real demand for it, and real demand as an alternative to check cashing for non-banked customers. So we actually made some improvements and some investments in our retail point of sale, in our retail money order refund process, and a few things that have actually seen that business, which is, you know, a reasonably sized business for us, it's a big chunk of that kind of Consumer Services, grow high single digits, right? So we've also started to get some traction with our digital wallets, so we're now in 4 countries in Europe. We're live in Argentina, and on April 11th, we'll be live in Brazil. So, you know, all of those come with a debit card. They come with a savings account. They come with a multicurrency account, so we're starting to see kind of traction in that area.

And then, you know, my favorite is, we've gone back into the market, and in fact, you probably remember when we were-

Moderator

Yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

issuing prepaid cards in the U.S.-

Moderator

Sure

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

many years ago. We've gone back into the market in the U.S. with a prepaid card, and so we're live now in about 400 retail locations. Really good reviews from our agents, our customers. We got the value proposition right this time. And this time you can actually do payouts, so you can get money and not have it on a card.

Moderator

Hmm.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So you don't have to do payouts in cash, so the agents like that. It take costs out of the system and take cash out of the system. So we've designed the product to be more integrated into our cross-border remittance than maybe in the past, where it was just a kind of independent product that hung on a J-hook someplace.

Moderator

What type of timeframe can we expect this to be meaningful in terms of contribution to financials?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Well, this is one of the reasons in December, we kind of got out in front of this and said, "Hey, we're going to rebrand this whole segment." It's tough to talk about other with a straight face. We're gonna rebrand this whole segment Consumer Services and went out there with the temp-

Moderator

Right

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

the double-digit revenue growth, right? So these things are contributing. They are starting to be material.

Moderator

Uh-huh.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

You can take that chunk of revenue and build it into the model at double digits, right?

Moderator

So money order, bill payment, digital wallet, I mean, there's quite a few initiatives, right? I mean...

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep, foreign exchange, both retail and digital, we actually are seeing real momentum in that, particularly in Europe.

Moderator

Right

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

where part of our-

Moderator

Yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

controlled distribution strategy, in order to make the economics of that work, you have to have more products than just cross-border remittance. So one of the core products in that, as we open our own locations and our concept stores and hubs, is, Forex.

Moderator

If you had to Just to wrap it up on this, on the Consumer Services side, I mean, if you had to kind of rank order the contributions that give you confidence in, I think you guided double-digit growth-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep

Moderator

... for this segment. Maybe we should just touch on whether that's including or that's organic, with or without inflation from Argentina.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah.

Moderator

But it's coming from what areas, would you say?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah. So the bulk of that today is our bill pay business and our retail money order business. We also, in the fourth quarter, kind of changed how we talk and basically have taken Argentine inflation out of it-

Moderator

Okay

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

'cause it's very confusing when the-

Moderator

Yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Argentinian inflation was so high. So both our guidance and the numbers we talk about are kind of all removed from Argentinian inflation.

Moderator

Okay, good.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So that double-digit is non-Argentinian-

Moderator

That's helpful

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

inflation influenced. But what we really see the growth coming from is the Forex, is the prepaid, is the digital wallet. It's the things we've been building, that are going to drive that base to the double digits.

Moderator

That's great. How about capital allocation? Maybe we'll just touch on, you know, in terms of internal investments, I think you discussed reallocating and shifting some expense base. What was it, at $700 million-$800 million, if I remember correctly, right?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

That would be the non-commission expense base, I believe.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Right, yeah.

Moderator

In order just to modernize the business, POS hardware, you talked about customer service. Is that still the case? Is there more wood to chop in terms of reallocating expenses?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah, look, we—this is, as you know, in any big company, probably one of the hardest things to do, 'cause people have budgets, and they want to spend those budgets, and they think their budgets are necessary. So trying to take from Peter to give to Paul is a really, really hard exercise in a big, large company. And so I think we've been exceptionally aggressive and done a very, very nice job. You know, we got $50 million in 2022. We got $50 million in 2023. I feel pretty good about another $50 million in 2024. Our goal was hundred and fifty million over the Evolve 2025. By the end of this year, we'll be a hundred million towards that.

I can easily think we'll get that five-year goal done in three or four years, all of which, you know, we're using to really invest in the new point-of-sale, invest in the ecosystem, put the right investments behind our digital experience to be able to compete more aggressively with digital natives. And we've done that all while maintaining the 19%-21% margin.

Moderator

Yeah.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

This hasn't been a story for investors. Let us go spend a bunch of money, and you guys hope that it pays off. We made the commitment, maintain the dividend, maintain the margin, and we'll go find the money to invest, to innovate, to modernize, to help make this thing happen.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

I think, you know, 18 months in, we're doing as we said we'd do.

Moderator

What about M&A? I mean, is there any optionality beyond some of these internal investments? You know, and obviously, while maintaining the commitment to the dividend as well.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Look, our stated capital allocation strategy is, maintain and protect the dividend, which given our investment-grade credit rating and the performance we have, I feel very good about. Second in the hierarchy is looking for places to accelerate our strategy, particularly around that ecosystem, new products and services, tuck-ins by geography, by capability, around the world, and we've spent time last year looking at that. Think things are still a little frothy, but, you know, we're looking for value-oriented acquisitions that we can accelerate the strategy with. And when that doesn't happen, it is like you saw in the fourth quarter of last year, we'll return it to shareholders and drive buybacks, which we did, you know, pretty strongly-

Moderator

Yeah

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

in the fourth quarter last year.

Moderator

Partnership versus M&A, I guess, is another important question. You've had a fair amount of very good partnerships over the past couple of years. Can you just give us a couple of examples and any others you see?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yeah. Look, by definition, we are a partner business. Right? All of my agents, all... Like, we are a partner business. We're great with partners. We, we rely on our partners everywhere around the world, so we like partners. We work well with partners. We know how to do partners. Some great examples as it relates to the strategy, the number one unmet need for our customers is access to credit, right? I'm not that jazzed about using the balance sheet to lend to consumers, but other people are, surprisingly. And so we've been able to find partners. We have one in Australia, we have one in Argentina, we now have one in Brazil, particularly where we have controlled distribution. So when we own our own locations, where we can help someone-

Moderator

That makes sense.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

fill out a loan application, where we can facilitate loan collection, right? Like, that is proving to be very strong for us. And so now we're looking at it in other places in the world where we can enhance that offering through partnerships.

Moderator

Right. A couple of minutes for questions at the end, I'm gonna leave. But I mean, Devin, if we looked at the business in a couple of years, mix, what would this—what is this gonna look like? Digital, you know, is, I think, on a transaction basis, in the high 20% of your-

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep

Moderator

total mix right now.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep.

Moderator

What is that gonna be? What do you expect that to be? And then more broadly, you know, what is the mix gonna look like?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Yep. So if we go all the way back to our investor day, we gave a North Star. It was actually kind of put in there. It got more commentary than almost anything else, and it was a pie chart.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

And it said, "This is where we are today," and it basically, at that time, showed digital about 21%, everything else at about, 80, 80... 79%. And so, we said someday, we didn't say when, we said, "Someday, half of this pie will be digital, and half of the pie will be non-digital." We've updated that to say, "That's still the North Star," although we now have digital, we have consumer services, and then we have what we'll call traditional retail.

Moderator

Right.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

We are well on our path to growing those two slices of the pie to get to that 50%. But that's still the North Star. It's to grow our business, particularly digital, particularly value-added products and services, while maintaining our traditional retail businesses flat.

Moderator

Right. Makes a lot of sense. All right, guys, why don't we take a couple of questions before we wrap up? We have about three minutes if anyone has.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Got one over there.

Speaker 3

Hi, Devin. I'd love if you can give an update on your focus on productive locations versus overall agent locations. Maybe if you could walk us through which regions are seeing the most impact from that change, or where are you targeting the most change there?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

It's a great question. Thank you. We have focused on agent and location productivity as the benchmark by which to judge our performance. So it's quite hard to manage a network where you have 20%-30% of it that's dormant. That's also, by the way, not a great customer experience when a customer walks into an agent that's not prepared, doesn't have cash, hasn't done a transaction recently. So we're really trying to get to having a consistent experience everywhere around the world. If there's a Western Union sign out front, you're gonna get a great Western Union experience. We've been very focused in places like Europe, like in Africa, certain parts of Asia, where we had large parts of the network that weren't as productive as we would like.

That has been less true in North America, or in Latin America, which had a more. Because of the cost of real estate and because of some other kind of historical things, our network was generally more productive in those locations. Our goal is to get to 100%. You know, we're now probably in the 90s in terms of agent productivity, and so every quarter, we work through another slug of agents that either are going to, you know, work with us to improve their productivity or they leave the network. And by the way, we now have standards for new agents, so for our sales teams, in order to get compensated, new agents have to meet productivity thresholds at three months, six months, and one year, and if they don't meet those, the salesperson doesn't get paid.

Speaker 4

Got one.

Moderator

Go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Just quickly on the retail business, you've done a good job stabilizing the business so far, but where are you in terms of the overall progress and moving toward those strategic goals? Do you have a lot more work? Are there a lot more things that you're gonna be able to do in order to give investors confidence that that business is gonna be stable going forward?

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

So as I said, I'm pleasantly surprised with the progress that we've made as fast as we've made. A large retail business is actually harder to influence and move. We made some pretty bold moves last year in terms of realigning and getting to more market competitiveness in some important geographies and some important corridors. That will pay dividends for some period of time, and, you know, there were a lot of questions in the fourth quarter about the gap between retail transactions, which had accelerated significantly, and retail revenue, which had not, right? And so that is a result of some of our investments and our actions to put ourselves in a better stead going forward. You'll start to see that delta between transactions and revenue now start to narrow, just like we've started to see in digital, which I think should give investors some confidence.

We still have work to do. As I said, we're at, like, 1 in 12 agent or customer service support per transaction. I'd like to get to 1 in 25. That would mean we've got better processes, better agents, better technology. You know, we continue to invest in our point of sale. I've got two or three more significant improvements that we're looking to make that'll allow us to, again, increase productivity, increase ease of use for our customers. And then we're investing a lot in what we call Omni-channel services, so being able to communicate with our retail customers, SMS, WhatsApp, in the app, in a much more seamless and holistic way, which will hopefully drive retention and again, allow us to drive promotions.

Today we have a very hard time driving customer-centric promotions, whether that's for loyalty rewards, whether that's for pricing discounts, whether that's for anything, because we don't have an easy way to communicate directly with our retail customers like we do our digital customers. So building these omni-channel interfaces that allow a retail customer to track a transfer, that allows a retail customer to register their receivers, to speed up a transaction, those also allow us to start to build a one-to-one relationship, which will drive that retail business in a very different way.

Moderator

Any other questions, guys? All right. Devin, thank you very much.

Devin McGranahan
CEO, Western Union

Thank you so much.

Moderator

Appreciate having you. Tom, Matt, thank you, guys.

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