Welcome to the Grupo Financario Galicia Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Release Conference Call. This call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to your host, to Pablo Fervida. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a short introduction, and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U. S.
Federal securities laws and subject to risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. According to private estimates, the Argentine economy recorded a 3% year over year contraction during the Q3 of this year from a 2.7% year over year decrease in the Q2. Therefore, the economy accumulates a 0.6% year over year fall during the 1st 9 months of this year, which compares to a 3.4% expansion in the same period of 2017. The primary deficit for the 1st 9 months of this year amounted to 1.3% of GDP, ARS181,000,000,000 overachieving the official target of 1.9%. It is worth highlighting that the government has decided to strengthen this year primary fiscal goal, which now stands at 2.7%.
The previous target was 3.2%, entailing a 1.1% reduction in terms of GDP compared to the 2017 result. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the National Consumer Price Index displayed a 14.1% increase during the Q3 of the year and accumulated a 39.5% rise in the 1st 10 months of this year, reaching an annual inflation of 45.9 percent in October. On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded the monetary base by ARS 206,000,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, reaching a 44% growth in the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the exchange rate averaged MXN 38.63 per dollar in September, a 45.1 percent depreciation against the average of June 2018. When compared to September 2017, the Argentine peso recorded 124 percent depreciation.
In September, the average rate on peso denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days was 41.9%, 11 percentage points above the average recorded last June. Private sector deposits in pesos amounted to ARS1728,000,000,000, increasing 6.9% during the quarter and 35.1% in the last 12 months. Transactional deposits in pesos rose 2.2% during the Q3, while peso denominated term deposits increased 12.9%. At the end of September, peso denominated loans to the private sector amounted to ARS 1578,000,000, recording a 2.7% increase in the quarter and a 36.5% increase during the last 12 months. Turning now to Grupo Finaciro Galicia.
Net income for the quarter amounted to ARS 4,200,000,000, 98% higher year over year. This was mainly due to profits from Banco Alicia for ARS 3,400,000,000 Intagitare Regionales for ARS 524,000,000 Inscoamericana Holdings, ARP 466,000,000 and in Galicia, administrado de Fundos for ARP 78,000,000. Going to Banco Alicia, which accounted for 81% of Grupo's results from equity investments, net income for the quarter increased 78% from the year ago quarter. Excluding the effect of the split up of Paragieta Regionales, net income increased 159% in the last 12 months. This was a result of a 73% higher net operating income, mainly due to 2 36% growth of the net income from financial instruments.
Net interest income for the quarter increased 76% as compared to the same period of 2017, mainly due to the 135% increase in interest on the portfolio of loans and financing to the private sector. Average inter earning assets grew ARS 110,000,000,000 or 70% year over year, and its yield increased 8 20 basis points, mainly due to an increase of 19.58 basis points in the interest rate on other interest earning assets and of 1729 basis points in the yield on government securities. Interest bearing liabilities grew ARS126 1,000,000,000 or 91% during the same period, and its cost increased 5 14 basis points, mainly as a result of a 15 17 basis point increase in the average interest rate on peso denominated term deposits and of 10.78 basis points on debt securities. Provision for loan losses for the quarter amounted to ARS 2,000,000,000, 2 66 percent higher than in the same quarter of the prior year, mainly due to those related to the individual's portfolio and to an increase of regulatory provisions on loans in normal situations as a consequence of the growth in volume. Personnel expenses increased 35% as compared to a year before, mainly due to salary increase agreements with the unions, and administrative expenses grew 51% due to increases of 3 26 percent in fees and compensation for service provided to the bank and of 96% in maintenance expenses.
The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 299,000,000,000 at the end of the quarter, up 87% in the last 12 months, and deposits reached ARS320,000,000,000, up 97% in a year. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 10.6%, 127 basis points higher than at the end of the year ago quarter. And the market share of deposits from the private sector was 11%, recording 162 basis points increase in the same period. As regards asset quality, the NPL ratio ended the quarter at 2.37%, recording a 55 basis point deterioration as compared with the 1.8 2% of the 2nd quarter of the 3rd quarter sorry, of the prior year. And the coverage of NPLs with allowances reached 103%, down from 120.5% from a year ago.
As of September 30, 2018, the bank's consolidated convertible capital exceeded by ARS 19,700,000,000 or 67 percent, the ARS 29,000,000,000 minimum capital requirement. And the total regulatory capital ratio reached 14%, increasing 234 basis points from the same quarter of the previous year. The bank's liquid assets at the end of the quarter represented 76% of the bank's transactional deposits and 49% of its total deposits compared to 62% and 39% ratios from a year before, respectively. Going now to Tachita Regionales, which accounted for 9.5 percent of Grupo's results from equity investments. The net income decreased 20% year over year due to a 23% increase in net interest income and 26% increase in net fees, which were offset or more than offset by a 91% increase in provision for loan losses, up 17% in personnel expenses and up 78% in administrative expenses.
Net loans and other financing grew 43%, while the NPL ratio reached 7.17%, 5 basis points above the period of September 2017. And the coverage with provision for loan losses was 99.5%, down from 105% as of the end of the Q3 of the previous year. In summary, during the Q3 of this year, group of Inacio Malaysia subsidiaries had a strong operating results in a challenging macro environment, and its main asset, Banco Alicia, was able to gain market share of loans and deposits and to keep its asset quality, liquidity and profitability metrics at reasonable levels. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.
Thank you, We'll take our first question from Alonso Garcia with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning and thank you for taking my question. Could you please comment on the equity performance so far in the mid half of the year? Specifically, could you comment if the performance you have seen so far has been in line with your expectations or if it has been slightly worse or better? And finally, considering the equity performance, do you believe that in addition to constraints coming from the demand side and on higher liquidity requirements, we should expect or not a reduction in risk appetite from your side?
I mean, should a mortgage approach from Galicia have an original impact on credit growth in coming quarters? Thank you.
I'm sorry, Alonso. I cannot I have a very bad line with you. I understood the first part about NPLs. The second part was about what, sorry?
Yes. Thank you. And considering that outlook for NPLs in the coming quarters, if you believe that the bank is expect or should we expect the bank to take a more cautious approach regarding risk appetite that causes further pressure on credit growth in the coming quarters?
Okay. Thank you. Well, as you saw, asset quality has been deteriorating NPLs of the bank ended the Q3 at 2.37%. Cost of risk was 3.45%, something higher than what we were seeing in previous quarters. We are forecasting a 3.2 percent cost of risk for the Q4.
And so far, about 3.7% for the full next year because we are seeing that although GDP will begin to grow on a sequential basis beginning the Q2 of next year, the full year will not be bright in terms of growth. Having said this, we are, I would say, not changing that much our always conservative approach in terms of granting loans. Yes, you can see already that the weight on our loan book with guarantees has been increasing slightly. But we basically we are not changing the dramatic our approach.
Understood. Thank you very much.
We'll move on to our next question from Carla Gomez Lopez with HSBC. Caller, please go ahead.
Good morning. I have two questions. The first one is what your expectation is for growth next year in terms of inflation or sometimes of the loans? Second, if you could advance us a little bit about what you expect your inflation adjusted returns to be when you report in 2019 for the SEC? And finally, are you comfortable with the current capital position of the bank?
We see 10.1%. We know it's going to improve because the currency has appreciated. But at what level would you consider that the bank needs to perhaps it can raise more capital or grow
less? Thank you.
Okay. Hi, Carlos. In terms of the growth, we are seeing a flattish growth of loans in real terms. So if we are assuming an inflation of 25%, our expectation for next year of growth in our loan book is around the same percentage, so flat in real or 0 in real terms. That is basically in the environment of GDP contraction between 0.5% 1%.
There is a negative carryover from this year. Regarding inflation adjustments, there are still many regulatory decisions or regulation that must be changed from the Central Bank and from the local SEC. The last information I can tell you is that in notes to the financial statements of the Q4, we'll be informing the potential impact of this inflation adjustment. Of course, the inflation adjustment is directly proportional to the level of inflation. If next year inflation is 25%, the adjustment will be much less.
But still many not only regulations, but also technicalities in terms of ratios and other variables to calculate must be determined. Going to the 3rd part of your question, in terms of capital, the total capital ratio of the bank as of September was 14%. Going forward, with the capital creation we are having with our results plus some good surprises like the sale of Prisma, the potential sale of Prisma in the Q1 of the next year could have or strengthen even further our capital situation. So really, raising capital in the market is not in the medium term at all.
Okay. That's very clear. If I can follow-up on the inflation adjustment, have you decided whether you will use IFRS or U. S. Government installation or that is one of the things that is still pending?
Well, that is something that will be decided once we have all the information. On the 20 F, it could be IFRS or U. S. GAAP reconciliation as it was in the past many years ago. It's not only our decision, regulators, auditors and so on.
Okay. Thank you.
We do have a question from Emily Fletcher from BlackRock. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Hi. Thanks for taking the call. Would it be possible for you to talk us through in a little bit more detail what you have in the trading income line? So how it breaks down and help us to understand how it was you generated that line? It's obviously much higher than people were expecting and the extent to which the income you have there is recurring.
Yes. Hi, Emily. Net results from financial instruments includes basically the interest that we collect on government bonds, both Central Bank Paper and National Government Bonds. Also, the results from the forwards of effects we have to hedge our dollar position. And in the 3rd place, the results from corporate bonds.
To give you an idea of the way, the results from government bonds represent 55% of that. And forward results roughly 40%. So 5% are the private sector or corporate bonds. And within the government bonds results, that again represent 55% of that line, roughly 60% comes from the Central Bank and 40% from the rest of the government bonds, let this in pesos, in dollars and other different bonds. Actually, there are like 7 pages of detail in an annex to the financial statement of the different holdings of government paper.
Okay. I'm sorry, I haven't seen that, Alex. And just to help me understand why you would classify bonds, some of the income there versus classifying it as interest income, how is it split?
Yes. Most of the interest coming from Levacs, Leliqs and the rest of the bonds come under this line, net results from financial instruments. Within the interest income, The only result that comes from a bond is the one that is held at cost plus yield. That is both the 2020 that is used to fulfill reserve requirements. This is how the Central Bank tell us to account these things.
I agree that it's not very clear.
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. And in terms of the FX hedging that you have, can you tell us the size of the open position that you're running?
Well, in as of the end of September, it's in our press release, it was something like ARS 900,000,000 long through forward contracts. The spot position was like $40,000,000 short with forwards we go long. And this is not really a speculative situation. It's more an arbitrage of interest rates. We analyze the trading desk basically, analyze if it's better to pay these forward contracts, let's say, at the 40% implicit interest rate and having liquidity invested in Leliqs at 60 plus.
So it's not by definition and by internal policy, the position is to re hedge in dollars. So you have to or we have to look at the spot result of being short plus the results from these forward contracts. And net was something like ARS 400,000,000 positive for the quarter.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. We'll move on to Alonso Arumu with BTG.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for the call. A couple of questions, Pablo. Can you comment on operating expenses? How should we think about that given salary negotiations and the opening of branches for 2019?
And also similar question in terms of margins. I mean, how what evolution should we expect over the next couple of quarters given reserve requirements and the movement of rates in Argentina? Thank you.
Hi, Alonso. For administrative expenses, we saw in the last 12 months the opening of 34 branches, and that also meant roughly 300 more employees. Salaries have been just to speak about increasing in quantity. In terms of price of those employees, salaries have been increasing gradually. What the bank association and the union agreed at the beginning of the year was to have salaries matching inflation.
So there were different monthly increases of salaries. The last one was in October. That meant that the October salary was 40% higher than the last December salary. So if we consider, let's say, another additional 5% in November or December, the average increase in salaries would be something around 23%, 24%. So this has been increasing in different months, but not for the full year.
What happened also with the rest of administrative expenses is that roughly 15% of administrative expenses are in dollars. So the devaluation has a negative impact on that when we measure into pesos. That is basically fees to certain international consultants, the rating agencies, IT licenses, rentals of some of our branches. Going forward, for next year, we are not expecting to open branches, perhaps a couple, but nothing really material. So expenses must be in line or a couple of percentage points above inflation.
Great. And in terms of margins as well?
Yes. In margins, well, when we look at the financial margin, including the yield on our bonds, Levacs, Leliqs and so on, we saw a big increase in the quarter. We think it could be resilient for the Q1, perhaps some minor compression, but really not going back to the Q2 levels. And for the full next year, we are forecasting some expansion of margins, considering the intermediation with the private sector, the gap between our cost of funding and the lending rates. Of course, When we look at the yield on government bonds, it's hard to project.
But going forward, we think we can increase a little bit the margin. So having 0 real growth in loans will mean that the net interest income could be growing above inflation.
Okay, great. And this is assuming that reserve requirements stay where they are today? Yes. Great. Thank you.
It appears we have no further questions at this time.
Okay. Thank you, Corinne. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning.
Bye
bye. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.