Good day everyone, and welcome to the conference call fourth quarter 2022. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later you will have the opportunity to ask questions during the question and answer session. You may register to ask questions at any time by pressing the star and one on your touchtone phone. You may withdraw yourself from the queue by pressing the pound key. Please note this call may be recorded, and I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to CEO Raúl Revuelta. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody, thank you for joining us today. During 2022, I'm pleased to report that GAP hit previous records on all fronts, making this year the most significant and one in our trajectory. Total revenues were up by 57% compared to 2019, supported by continued passenger traffic growth and a strong commercial revenue increase. Throughout the year, we transported almost 57 million passengers, a 60.4% increase over 2019. With this figure, GAP was positioned as the largest airport operator in Mexico for the third consecutive year, representing approximately 31% of the total market. This performance was mainly driven by the growth at the Tijuana, Los Cabos, and Puerto Vallarta airports, which was outstanding. Likewise, in Guadalajara, we are finally seeing a return to 2019 levels.
In Jamaica, passengers traffic also showed strong signs of recovery compared to 2019. If you recall, passengers traffic numbers were deeply impacted by the COVID-related government imposed travel restrictions, which were very severe and delayed the recovery in that country. We continue to work closely with airlines seeking to secure additional routes and frequencies. Thus, during the first quarter, GAP added 12 new international routes and four domestic ones. On February 15, the airline Aeromar announced the suspension of operations for financial reasons and their difficulty in closing agreements to operate in the long term under viable conditions. Aeromar operated only in the airport of Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta, and Aguascalientes, without exclusive routes, representing 0.22% of total passengers traffic at our Mexican airports.
Moving on to the revenue performance, excluding IFRIC 12, during 2022, we reached revenue of MXN 22.5 billion. Aeronautical revenues increased by almost 65% versus 2019, driven mainly by passengers traffic growth as well as increase in maximum tariff as inflation. On the other hand, commercial revenue increased by almost 38% compared to 2019. This was due to the additional commercial spaces in Montego Bay, Los Cabos, and Guadalajara. In addition to the renegotiation of past due contracts under better conditions for GAP compared to the previous ones. Additionally, revenues from food and beverage and retail stores accounted for the most undergrowth. With respect to business lines operated directly by us, they increased by 35% due to the higher revenues for parking lots and convenience stores.
This was offset by weak advertising revenues, which were initially impacted at the beginning of the pandemic and have struggled to regain pre-COVID 2019 levels. In 2022, EBITDA was MXN 16.1 billion, which was the result of various factors, including an outstanding passengers traffic recovery, tariff increase, and higher commercial spending per passengers. This was partially offset by the higher cost of service, mainly related to the opening of the new terminal processor building in Tijuana, the new commercial spaces in Los Cabos Airport, as well as the new VIP lounges. Personnel expenses rose due to the increase of headcount, mainly related to the larger number of operations. The effect of inflation and minimum wage also impacted maintenance, janitorial, and security costs. Despite the challenge in 2022, we were able to successfully reach the highest EBITDA margin in the history of GAP.
Net comprehensive income increased by MXN 2.2 billion pesos compared to 2021, or 34%. This increase was below the net income increase of 52%. It was originated by the currency translation effect resulting from the valuation of Jamaican airports, eliminated in U.S. dollars due to the 6% appreciation of the peso. On the other hand, the effective tax rate increases from 23% in 2021 to 25% in 2022. It was derived mainly from the effect of high inflation over the net financial liability position, which increased the taxable income of 2022. On the balance sheet front, cash and cash equivalents reached MXN 12.4 billion pesos at the end of the year, and debt was a total of MXN 34.3 billion pesos.
According to this, we continued on our healthy leverage level at a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.4 x. Moving on to the CapEx. The construction of the second one will continue at the Guadalajara Airport, in addition to the construction of a new commercial mixed-use building. That includes a hotel with 180 rooms, corporate office, and commercial spaces. We expect that this building will be completed at the end of 2023. We look forward to sharing those updates with you in the future communications. In Tijuana, the construction of the first phase of the terminal processor building concluded, initiating operation in May of 2022. This new building completely renews the potential and success of this airport as it will achieve several objectives. For one, it will raise the airport capacity to welcome additional flights, routes, and frequencies.
It will also really expand our ability to better serve international markets by complementing the great functionality of the cross-border bridge. Additionally, we are expecting to reopen our routes from China at the end of this year. In Los Cabos, we continue the expansion of the international terminal building that will add about 20,000 square meters. In Puerto Vallarta, we began the construction of the second terminal building oriented to the net zero energy concept. Now, according to our guidance for 2023, we expect sustainable passengers growth across our network of airports. This is based on our view of airline flights, frequency, and seats offerings. Despite the high passenger growth levels at the beginning of the year, we believe this will adjust throughout the year to yield and expect 6%- 8% increase compared to the last year.
This directly correlates with the increase in revenue in both aeronautical and non-aeronautical. Aeronautical revenues are expected to increase from 12%-14% due to passengers traffic increase and inflation, which have already been passed through since January. The non-aeronautical revenue are expected to grow from 13%-15%, considering passengers traffic growth, inflation, and the development of additional business lines, such as the opening of seven convenience stores and 1 additional VIP Lounge, as well as change in existing contracts. On the EBITDA margin side, we expect a 70% margin, ±1%. This is mainly due to the opening of new operational areas that will require more janitorial, security, and maintenance services, in addition to the recent minimum wage increase in Mexico, as well as the new changes in the labor law.
The CapEx we expect to deploy is MXN 10.2 billion. This is 75% related to CapEx committed and 25% related to commercial investments. Aside from the committed CapEx in Mexico for this year, which amount to MXN 4.5 billion, we are also taking into account the purchase of land for future expansion in Guadalajara. This will be for about MXN 1.2 billion, as well as around MXN 1 billion for CapEx that was deployed in 2022, but will be paid until 2023. We also include about MXN 1 billion in the investments in Jamaica. In Jamaica, CapEx has been limited as a result of our waiver agreement with the authorities until we complete our renegotiation of the capital development program. Some investment must be made and cannot wait any longer.
On the commercial side, this includes the last phase of the construction of a mixed-use building in Guadalajara, as well as expansion of the parking lots, and the opening of additional business lines that are operated directly by us. With this, I would like to thank for all of your attention. We are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please open the lines for questions.
Absolutely. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your touch-tone phone. You may withdraw your question at any time by pressing the pound key. Once again, to ask a question, please press star and one on your touch-tone phone. We'll take our first question from Guilherme Mendes with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Raúl , Saúl. Thank you for taking my questions. two questions actually. The first one's regarding the potential upgrade to Category 1 of the Mexican aviation industry. Just wanted to hear your thoughts on the potential time of it. The second question is regarding the Jamaica contract rebalance. What are the expectations, you know, also in terms of timing? Thank you.
Hi, Guilherme. This is Raul. In terms of the category, I will say that the federal government is still having the schedule for recovery of the category in the first half of the year. We really don't have additional information on that. At least what the authority is saying and is working in, that is the original schedule of May of this year for the recovery of the category. We don't have, I mean, further information on that. We are more. Our personal view is that this could happen more in the third to fourth quarter of the year. I mean, we need to have more information.
At least in our position, in our guidance, for instance, we are not considering, at least for the numbers that we release in our guidance, the recovery of the category.
Hi, Guilherme Mendes, this is Saúl. Regarding your second question, we are working with the Jamaican government in order to try to reach an agreement. We already sent a proposal, and they are in the process of reviewing with their advisors, and they are going to send to the cabinet a proposal. We will have another deep conversation together to this, and probably our best estimate is April, May to have a conclusion of the process.
Very clear. Thank you both. Maybe one quick follow-up on the, on the rebalance in Jamaica. Should we expect a reduction on CapEx or an increase on tariffs? What are likely the potential outcome of the rebalance? Thank you.
Well, it is a mix. We cannot release too much about this, but our target is to balance the cash flows of every concession from MBJ and from Kingston. It is a balance. Include price and include CapEx. CapEx and OpEx. It is a full review of the model.
Super clear. Thank you. Have a great day.
Right. Thank you.
We'll move next with Rodolfo Ramos with Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have a couple as well. The first one is on the cost side. You know, when we look at the cost of services that you report in the fourth quarter, I mean, it tends to be a heavier on the OpEx side. Just, if you can elaborate, you mentioned some of the pressures that you're facing in your initial comments overall. If you can expand a little bit more on what you're expecting for cost of services, especially as you open these new areas in 2023. The second one is, you know, on the dividend payment. If you can just take us a little bit through your thinking.
I mean, I know that this is going to be later disclosed, but just, how you think of the dividend, you know, especially considering the CapEx commitments that you have going on this year? And, if you can remind us what your, you know, what would be the lowest cash balance that you'd be comfortable with just to put that dividend in perspective and frame it. Thank you.
Thank you, Rodolfo. This is Raúl. I will begin with the part of the cost of service. For sure, in all the infrastructure, when we deploy additional square meters, we need to have some additional maintenance security costs, for instance. The case of Tijuana was our biggest new terminal that already opened that for sure impact the result. We also are having, during 2023, important increases on additional square meters for, in the case of Cabos and in the case of Guadalajara Airport also. For sure is always we need to think that the cost will arrive first, that the revenue, in some way, the all the maximization of the use of the infrastructure gonna happen as soon as we begin to have a bigger increase on the time of additional passengers.
I would say that the first impact, in some way, during the next couple of years, we're gonna see an increase on the economies of the scales in our terminals. Always when we are in the middle of this kind of I mean, big expansion plan, we're gonna have increasing costs in terms of the new square meters. The other part that will be really, I mean, important to follow in the, at least in this year, and we begin to see it on the past years, is what is related with the salaries cost. We have the review of a minimum wage that was an impact. Also, as you remember, 20 months ago, we have also the impact of the Outsourcing Reform Law.
We will see some other additional impacts for this 2023. That is, again, the review of the minimum wage, but also the review on the holidays that gonna have an impact related with the need of additional headcount for cover all that additional holidays that the employees will gonna have to take on from these years and looking forward.
Hi Rodolfo. This is Saúl. The labor law changes have been impacting all our costs in all lines. Additionally, the impact of inflation, not only in Mexico, but also in Jamaica.
We have a stress in the cost of services in general. It's important to consider that. Additionally, I will mention that regarding Montego Bay, we have the impact of the additional concession fee, that it is additional cost. If we look at the comps with 2021, we'll see an additional cost or additional increase in the concession fees that it comes from Jamaica. It's very significant. We had an increase of 54% in 2022. I think as Raul mentioned, the effects of labor law, but also the effects of the concession fees. Related to the dividend payment, Raul?
I mean, in a couple of days, we're gonna have release the number. As you know, as a company, we're gonna always make the best possible effort for FEMSA as big a yield that is possible in terms of what is fiscal, has an optimal use of the fiscal resources. I would say that GAP will continue the same, in the same line, but the exact number is gonna be released in a couple of weeks.
Thank you. Just a follow-up, if I may, on you mentioned that you had increased prices in January. What would you expect your maximum tariff compliance to be this year with that price increase?
I mean, for sure it depends on inflation. Also, we are having some additional pressure from a stronger peso. As you know, as you remember, all international TUA is related to U.S. dollar. In general terms, we are expecting to be around 98%, 97% to 80%, 98% of fulfillment on the tariff on this year. For sure it depends on inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Thank you. Done.
We'll take our next question from Alberto Valerio with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question, Saúl and Raúl, congrats for the year, amazing year in 2022. Just a follow-up on the costs. If you could detail a little bit more what you had in the other operating expense for the Mexican airports that you see increased on the year. Another point as well is on Montego Bay. We see a little bit.
Alberto.
Uh.
Sorry.
Yes.
Sorry, Alberto. It not sounds really good, your sound. If you could repeat the question, please.
Yes.
There is a lot of noise on the line.
Okay. It's better now?
Yes.
That's right.
Better. Better. Yeah, yeah.
Yes. On the other operating expenses for the Mexican airport operations, if you could give a little bit more color, besides the VIP Lounge and convenience stores that we have a little bit increased for the fourth quarter. If you could provide a little bit more color on this line, what drove the increase year-over-year. The second one is about Jamaica as well. I think you mentioned the fees that you increased in Jamaica in Montego Bay, and if there is something else that increased costs in Jamaica. Lastly, on the financial results, besides interest rates, there are other.
Alberto.
Of the financial results that... Yes.
Alberto, I'm sorry to interrupt. It sounds very bad. Is barely understanding your questions. Can you please add your questions in the webcast, please? Write down your questions.
Yes, sure.
We will take you. Please. Sorry.
No problem. Thank you.
We'll take our next question from Antony Morokotter with GBM. Please go ahead.
Hello, guys. Congrats on your results, and thank you for taking my question. I just, I understand that you guys did a deployment of around MXN 2 billion for commercial projects during 2022. You expect to do something near that amount for 2023 also. Could you provide some detailed breakdown of that deployment? I mean, how much has been spent for the mixed-use facilities, how much for the parking and all of that? Thank you.
Hi, Antony. This is Saúl. Well, in 2022, we deployed around 1.5 billion MXN regarding commercial projects. For 2023, we are expecting to deploy around 2.5 billion MXN. You are correct. We are doing a huge investment in mixed-use building in Guadalajara. We are expanding the airport, the parking lot in the Guadalajara airport. We are doing a huge expansion in Los Cabos Airport in all the commercial areas. You will see the commercial revenue in 2024 with a better revenue for Cabos. We have been doing additional investments in commercial stores and VIP lounges.
In all our other medium-sized airport, we have been doing some investment in terms of parking lots in some commercial areas. What is important also to mention is that in Montego Bay, we did a huge expansion of the, all the commercial and retail area for this airport that is very relevant for 2022. For 2023, that we are planning to continue with the conclusion of the mixed-use building in Guadalajara, continue with expansion of Guadalajara Airport. Just to have in mind that currently we have 2,000 spaces in the parking lot in Guadalajara. At the end of 2023, we will have around 4,500 spaces in this parking lot. At the end of 2026, we will have around 10,000 spaces.
We are in the plan of expanding all the commercial areas, and you can see it in the commercial revenue that we are reporting. It's also important to mention that the payback of the commercial investment is around 5-7 years. We are trying to get at least the same return that we expect from the aeronautical revenues at least. We ask additional return in all the commercial projects. In general, all the investment that we are deploying related with the commercial revenues is having an additional return than the aeronautical revenues.
Just to, like, trying to break down the numbers a little bit, would it be possible to get a rough amount of how much has been spent for the parking spaces, how much for the hotel, and how much for the mixed-use facilities?
Yes. Well, in general numbers, in very, very general numbers, regarding the mixed-use building is around MXN 1 million. In the case of expansion of Paseo de Montejo in 2022, it was around $40 million because it was a huge, huge expansion. The other is the beginning of the expansion of the parking lots and the commercial stores and the VIP Lounge. For 2023, the main investment is to continue with and to finalize the mixed-use building, that will be around MXN 800 million to conclude this building, and also to continue with the expansion of the parking lot to finalize the 4,500 spaces of the parking lot in Guadalajara.
We are also doing, and finalizing the investment of the investment and the expansion of the Los Cabos commercial spaces. That will be around MXN 600 million.
Okay. I now understand that the mixed-use building has roughly 30,000 square meters, right? The one where you already deployed MXN 1 billion and are expecting to deploy an additional MXN 800 million.
It will be around 50,000 square meters. When you take into account the office building, the hotel building.
The commercial.
A commercial area in the middle of that will be at around 50,000 square meters for the complete project.
Okay. Perfect. Thanks a lot.
You're welcome.
We will move next with Pablo Monsivais with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have a quick question in terms of the traffic that you are forecasting for, I don't know, 2023, 2024 and 2025 for the medium term. How do you see your CapEx and your increased capacity being ready to serve that amount of passengers that most likely you didn't expect at the time you negotiated your MDP? Should we start forecasting higher CapEx for those years? I don't know. What is basically the balancing between additional capacity and additional traffic? Thank you.
Thank you, Pablo. This is Raúl, I would say, let me begin with which areas of the airport we need to increase capacity for the coming years. The first step I will talk about what is included on this master plan and what would be included on the coming master plan. In this master plan, we have the second runway of Guadalajara that will need to be open at the end of this year, 2023. We are beginning the construction of the new terminal building on Guadalajara Airport. That gonna be conclude on 2026. That's gonna be partially part of the new master plan. That is for the case of Guadalajara.
For the case of Guadalajara, talking about the new master plan, it will include to conclude the new terminal building of the airport, the second terminal building of the airport, and also will include some major maintenance of the first runway that it need. For the moment of the construction of the second runway, we have some, we need to do some deep maintenance on the first runway as soon as we begin the new master plan. Let me jump to Tijuana. In the current case of Tijuana, in this master plan we will conclude the last part of the new terminal building that's gonna be conclude. That is mainly the facilities for the baggage claiming on the international side. With that, we will conclude this master plan.
For the coming years, it's clear that the increase of passengers from Tijuana and the potential what we see in that terminal would make us deploy an important increase on capacity in terms of terminal building, for sure. Right now we are running the, the specific amount of additional square meters and additional gates that we will need for the coming years. I will say that, for sure, in the case of Tijuana, we will need to deploy an important increase on terms of capacities of our terminal building. Jumping to Los Cabos. In Los Cabos, on this master plan, we are concluding an important, an important expansion of the terminal two, that is the international terminal building for that airport. With that, I will say that we will conclude the increase of capacity of this master plan.
For sure, in the coming master plan, we will need to deploy a completely brand new terminal building for the domestic passenger. We are working on that project. In terms of capacity, we know that we need to add capacity for the domestic passengers in the case of Cabos. If we are lucky for the case of Puerto Vallarta, we will, on this master plan, we will conclude the new terminal building facility, terminal two in Puerto Vallarta, that will give us a lot of additional capacity for that airport. For the next master plan, we will have some general or deep reinforcement of the terminal one on Puerto Vallarta, but we'll not add additional capacity, it will be more a general reinforcement of the terminal building.
For the case of the rest of the airports, I will say that in this master plan that will conclude in 2024, we generally didn't add capacity for the rest of the airports in Mexico. The natural thing on the coming master plan is that the rest of the airport will add capacity in terms of terminal buildings. Saying that, what we could expect in terms of CapEx for the next master plan, will be in the same level of CapEx per passenger that we will have in the, I mean, in the last master plans. We will continue aligning the same ratio, the investment or CapEx per passenger.
I will say that is the best, the best way to understand how much money we are seeing on the next master plan. Also we are finalizing the couple of months, what gonna be our new master plan. We are running all the studies of capacity and forecastings. I will say that today we don't have completely clear what's gonna be the number or the rough number that we're gonna have on the negotiation with the authority. In general terms, talking about what we saw in terms of capacity, I already mentioned which are or which gonna be our biggest increases, or that will be our biggest increases on capacity on coming years.
I mean, in general terms, is what we are seeing for the master plan.
Perfect. Thank you.
Once again, it is star and one on your touchtone phone if you would like to join the queue. We will move next with Gabriel Himelfarb with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the call. Just a quick question. Basically we're seeing a strong increase in international traffic on Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta, and also in Tijuana and Guadalajara. Can you give us a bit of color of how much of what could be driven by Canadian traffic that is incorporating into international traffic? Thanks.
Thank you, Gabriel. This is Raúl. As you say, is, I mean, it's, there's a big increase on the capacity of Canadian traffic because as you remember, one year ago, in 2022, in some way we lose the winter season on Vallarta, Cabos, Montego Bay's airports mainly. This year we are seeing a full recovery of the capacity and offer of seats from the Canadian market. For sure that is helping us to have a much better increase of on passengers in those airports. What is also important to know is that in 2022 also, different U.S. carriers add capacity in Cabos, in Vallarta Airport.
In some way we saw that that could be a change in some way that we were not completely clear that gonna be sustainable in the time, because at that moment, if we remember 2022, we were talking that a lot of the capacity on the long haul from U.S. airlines was in some way were canceled and in some way diverted to other Mexican leisure destinations. One of the big questions that we have for this 2023 was, all that additional capacity will continue or not. The great news is that the answer is, for instance, for this winter season, from January to March, we are seeing that the number of seats of the U.S. carriers also are increasing.
In some way that the great news for the leisure Mexican destination is that the capacity is doing great. The yields are doing great, and the load factors are doing great. In general terms, we think that the leisure destinations at Cabos or Vallarta are in a great moment for continuous their growth for in this year.
Okay. Thank you. Just an addition question. Do you think this capacity could now start to normalize by next year?
I mean, it's difficult to have all the view of what's gonna happen on next year. I will say that what is interesting that is happening in Cabo and in Vallarta is that today there's a really big amount of additional rooms, hotel rooms or key rooms under construction in those areas. I will say that, for instance, the case of Vallarta, a bit of 2024, the opening of the new complex of the Mayan, of Grupo Vidanta, the Cirque du Soleil complex in Vallarta will bring a really big amount of additional hotel rooms to the region. For sure, we are expecting that at least the market could react for that additional offer of rooms, bringing additional seats to the market.
In both airports, we are seeing that expansion of rooms, in Cabos and in Vallarta. We feel optimistic about the growth on the offer of seats on those markets for the coming years.
Okay, thank you very much.
Once again, it is star and one on your touchtone phone if you would like to join the queue, or if you are connected to the webcast, you may also ask questions on the webcast by using the chat feature. We'll pause our moment for other questions to queue.
Thank you. We have already received the question from Alberto Valerio from UBS, and he's asking: can you provide additional details on what drove the increase of the other operating expenses line?
Yes, Alberto, this is a very important point because in this line we include the cost related with the operation of our convenience stores, our VIP Lounge and FBO terminal. It's important to mention that it is increased because these business lines are increasing. It implies in rough numbers, MXN 100 million increase means that we have an around MXN 250 million of commercial revenues, additional commercial revenues over these business lines. Additionally, we have a little peak of Aeromar net accounts that we couldn't collect during 2022. We were expecting since 2022 the bankruptcy from Aeromar, we reserved the accounts from Aeromar.
It is the integration of this business line.
The other one it is: can you provide additional color on the operating expenses increase in MBJ? What were the main expenses increases beside the concession fee that you have already mentioned?
The cost of operating was almost in line that we expected. It had a increase based on inflation, around 8% U.S. inflation. What is more significant increase was the additional concession fee. If you recall, according to our concession model in MBJ has a clause that mentioned that in the moment that the real revenues is above of a certain trigger of revenue, we have to pay 45% of the excess of that trigger to the authority. That's why in the previous year, 2020, 2021, we had a credit.
Once we recovered the passenger traffic in 2022, we decreased that credit, and we had to make a provision of this additional concession fee that will be paid during 2023. It's basically the main increase.
Yeah. The other one it is: is there anything that impacted the financial expenses line besides higher interest on debt?
Well, no. The main effect obviously is the level of debt. As you know, as part of our strategy is to leverage 100% our CapEx, the commercial and committed CapEx. That's the main reason. Obviously, the interest rates that we have seen in the last year. That's the main effect.
Thank you. We have now two questions from Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. How do you expect for currently high 10-year bond yields to impact cost of capital for MDP purposes? Should this drive higher tariffs or else held constant?
For the case of this, it is important to remember that at the moment that we were negotiating the last master plan, it was in the market all the noise about the cancellation of the New Mexico City Airport. In that moment, the yields of the long-term debt of the Mexican government was really the same level of yields that we are seeing today. We really don't see any kind of, I would say, additional pressure for an increase of the level of yields that in some way could affect the discount rate for the next review. I will say in that moment, we have a really specific moment of a lot of noise related of the cancellation of the New Mexico City Airport, and in some way our...
The level of the different curves are mainly in the same, I would say, area. I really don't see that bigger increase in forward looking for the discount rate.
Okay. Thank you, Raúl. Also Bruno asked, "In the prior MTP cycles in general for GAP and other operators, the strong traffic led to higher CapEx levels, allowing for higher tariffs in real terms. Do you see any reason why this time the 2024 MTP tariffs could eventually fall?
I will say that it is important to remember that we are on the new maximum tariff cycle. The new negotiation, the maximum tariff, will begin with a really bigger amount of Workload Units, so passengers and cargo in the year base for the forecasting. A lot of some of our infrastructure or the leap of capacity already happened. I mean, we built the second runway on Guadalajara. We built some way the new terminal of Vallarta. The natural way to see what could happen with the tariff on the coming maximum on the next master plan will be something more aligned to some kind of decrease or neutral result on the tariff.
I mean, the most important thing is to know that the base of the calculus is the number of passengers, where you begin the running the forecasting. What we're gonna see in the coming years for all the airport groups is that the amount of passengers is much bigger than the one we had when we run in 2019 the forecasting for the maximum tariff. The correct view gonna be something little negative or around neutral for the result of tariff in real terms for the coming master plan.
Thank you, Raúl. We have a couple of questions from Pablo Villanueva from MetLife. He's asking, "Can you give us color regarding your guidance for EBITDA margin for 2023 and the midterm levels you expect?
Yes. Pablo, we released in our guidance 70% of EBITDA margin, more is 1%. We believe that historically the EBITDA margin of GAP is around 69%, 68%, 70%. Like this year in 2022, we have above of 71%. It was a great year. What do we expect is to have around 70%s. Historically it has been below that, in some way, we will have in the average of 70%s.
Thank you, Raúl. The second question from Pablo, it says that, "Can you give us some color on the impact that nearshoring is having in your operations and what do you expect in the midterm?
Yes. I mean, we think that we are just in the beginning of what the real potential that will bring for additional passengers to our airports with about the nearshoring. We are really optimistic that we could see some results, important results on the case of the area of maquilas, automotive areas that could be Guanajuato, Aguascalientes, and Jalisco, what is Guadalajara. We also are beginning to see a really positive impact or beginning of nearshoring impact on the case of Tijuana and Mexicali airports. Around the cities, we are seeing a lot of increasing of the warehouse factories, maquilas. At the moment, I could say that in Baja California we are seeing a really dynamic economy that in some way is moving related with the nearshoring.
In general terms, I would say that we are beginning to see some of the impact. It's not fully clear yet, but we are optimistic that on the coming years we will begin to see more of that impact. For instance, Nissan just has announced a really big amount of additional investments for the Aguascalientes factory, what is a great news for the Aguascalientes airport that is really related to business traffic, and it mainly comes from the automotive industry. I would say that we are at the beginning of what could be a great but gradual impact on the passengers related with the nearshoring.
Thank you, Raúl . Then we have the last one from the webcast that's from Robert Klein from Insight LLP. Could you please split out the CapEx in 2022 because it seems very high? Does the total amount change with the MDP, or how do you will receive a return on the extra CapEx? What is in the CapEx for 2023?
Hi, Robert. Well, the CapEx in 2022, as we mentioned, we deployed around MXN 8.4 billion. It was MXN 6.9 billion related with the mandatory CapEx in Mexico and Jamaica, and MXN 1.5 billion in commercial investments. Related with your question that is very high, we have to consider that the commitment with the authorities is that in 2017 numbers. The inflation related from 2017 up to 2022, it was around 45%. That's we have had a huge pressure in terms of inflation in all the investments, the mandatory investment, not only in Mexico but also in Jamaica.
In the other hand, all the commercial investment that we expect is to have a return, a higher return than the investment related to aeronautical revenues or mandatory investment. If we expect a return on extra CapEx? Yes, we expect a return on extra CapEx, and is a better return than established in the maximum tariffs. Connecting to your question that what is the CapEx for 2023? As we mentioned before, it's around MXN 10 billion. It's divided MXN 7.5 billion related with the mandatory CapEx, with the MDP, in Mexico and Jamaica. MXN 2.5 billion will be for commercial purposes.
We already explained about the mix use, the expansion of the parking lots, the expansion of the VIP lounges and the convenience stores. Also our second quarter we have a huge investment and expansion in commercial terms.
Thank you. This was the last question, in the webcast for operator.
We show no further questions over the phone. I would like to turn the call over to Raúl Revuelta for any closing remarks.
Thank you. Thank you very much for your attention. Before I conclude, I just want to mention that the GAP Day 2023 will be held on March 16 in the New York Stock Exchange. We hope that you can join us for morning of management presentation and more information on future projects and outlooks. Please contact our investor relations team for more information. Have a great day.
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