Good morning.
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Q3 results of WDP. I think I can say again, a perfect blend. Indeed, today, we create value with all our drivers, as we have foreseen in our plan. First of all, and of course, our earnings per share are fully in line, and we are on the right way to the 1.47 for the end of this year, which gives us a growth of 5%. And until today, we added EUR 600 million of value to our balance sheet, which let it grow up to EUR 4.7 billion, and still, we have a perfect balance sheet. Super strong, liquid, with investment potential. Thanks to our permanent matching principle of debt and equity with acquisitions, like Q3, two nice deals, one in equity, one in debt.
Based on that, we can grow further. Yes, totally we realized this year a very nice growth again, globally, EUR 600 million this year, of which EUR 100 million include in Q3. Of course, based on a very good and high qualitative portfolio with a high and stable occupancy rate of 98%. If we look then to our growth, our new investments, indeed, at the end of June, we were at EUR 500 million, and now this quarter, we could add another EUR 100 million, two nice deals, one in Belgium, one in France, one in debt, and one in equity. Of course, the third quarter is always a little bit less. There is a little bit less activity due to the summer holidays.
But it stays a very nice package, let's say, with all kinds of investments. It is really a blend of everything, showing that, yes, we can do in every market, in every segment, we can create value, and we can do things. And yes, of course, today, we still have new developments, but less than the last years, which is normal because there are less developments in the market. It's not that we do less developments, there are just less developments, due to the fact that we are still in a little bit uncertain economic times, and that people are, let's say, thinking twice before taking a big investment and a big decision with a big impact.
Yes, even when you want to move, you still can always stay six months, one year longer in an existing building, and if you need something extra, you can rent something temporarily and with your neighbor. That's normal for the moment in the cycle. It is time to buy. Yes, it is time to do acquisitions and to realize value and to create value with acquisitions. Typically, depending on the cycle and on the moment in the cycle, we can generate cash return and total return. By doing and adding what we always did. This brings us to Blend 2027. Indeed, creating value with all our drivers, and that's very important, and it's really as we had foreseen at the end of last year when we prepared this plan. It is really about multiple drivers in multiple markets.
That's WDP, and that's what we have always been and always done, looking where and how we can create value. And of course, this is built on the markets, and there we can say that indeed, we still see structural demand for logistics space and warehouses staying there, and there are sound market dynamics. But indeed, on the short term, we have some extra work. We are at the end of the cycle, and we see stocks bottoming out. So I would say, as normal, we need to go back to work like pre-COVID, and so we need to work extra. And yes, this year, let's say, we had some less-...
Retention, from normally 90%, it went down to 80%, because some people, mainly driven by consumer markets, had some less stock and were in the possibility to give it back. But let's say this is only 1% extra work or 100,000 square meters. And so this is for us, let's say, normal procedures, the normal things we need to do. And don't forget, we are deep in the markets, and that's always the reason why we want to be deep in the market and knowing what's going around. For example, we have a small site, neighboring, in the neighbor of Brussels, with a very nice mezzanine in. It was an e-commerce player who consolidated in another country and, let's say, who gave back this site.
But it was with a unique, let's say we had a unique selling proposition, a very nice building, good located, with a mezzanine inside. And yes, that takes some time. You need to find the right client, but then if you can find it, then it's a, a win-win-win for everybody. The former client don't have to demolish the mezzanine. The new one can start faster, directly using a, a mezzanine without having to invest in it. And for us, it gives us, it puts us in a better position to discuss about price. But for that, you need to be deep in the market, know your markets, and indeed work hard for it. So some work, but let's say for us, business as usual. And besides, and based on that structural demand, we still can continue to grow.
Like I mentioned, we could realize EUR 600 million of new investments at an average yield of 7%. And when demand for new developments are there, then we still have a very nice land bank with a nice potential to develop again. And besides the value creation externally, and we also have, of course, our fantastic portfolio where we can work on and which generates also value, well, by which we can create value. With still indexation of all our leases with around 3% and positive rent reversions for 15% for around 300,000 square meters. And even with the new indexations and the rent reversions, we are still 12% below market rent, so there is still a way to go for further value creation.
In the meantime, we continue, of course, by rolling out our PV installations and our energy solutions further to our clients. We can do all this, like I said in the beginning, thanks to our balance sheet, with a lot of potential in it, so we can let our balance sheet work and put it at work. All of this comes together in our leading indicator, annualized rent, where you can see what we realized and what is still coming in. I can say we are on the right way to get our earnings per share target of 2027, with the existing portfolio and external growth. In the short term, of course, we can confirm our guidance and the outlook for 2024 and of course, the one for 2027.
As a conclusion, I can say that, based on three things, occupancy, there we are back to normal and ready to do what we have to do, and it's one of our core competencies, already more than 40 years. Yes, we can continue to grow. It's time to buy, and we can do it because we have the possibilities within our balance sheet. This is, in short, what we want to tell, and now, we are open for your questions, which will be organized by Alexander.
For the Q&A, please raise your virtual hands, and we'll address them one by one, or put the questions in the chat. We have the first question coming in from Rob Jones from Exane.
Great. Cheers, guys. Can you hear me okay?
Yeah.
Perfect. Thanks for the update. It was just one on. There was a couple of times in the release you talked about a slowdown in tenant demand, and obviously that, as you highlighted, affects two things: one, both tenant retention and obviously thinking about 2025 would be interesting in terms of feedback around that tenant retention expectation. And secondly, around development pipeline. You know, amongst my stock coverage, the worst performer so far today, and I wonder if it's linked to that point. So can you give any detail or color on quantifying how much of a slowdown you are seeing in terms of tenant demand? And why you think it's cyclical, and thus why you think it does pick up in future?
'Cause that's definitely what we are receiving in terms of investor feedback and concern regarding both yourselves and indeed, the wider European logistics sector. Thank you.
I think first, yes, we are, like I mentioned, we are at the end of the economic cycle, and we as a warehouse sector, we are late cyclical. In the beginning of the cycle, of a downward cycle, there is still too much stock and, let's say our clients sells less, so they have some surplus stocks. And the utilization degree of our warehouses, it went up to 100%, and now, by the end of the downturn, then let's say people are selling their overstock, and they are getting back to normal, and even of course, at the end of the cycle, a little bit lower.
Now, from an internal utilization degree of 120, you went down to 80, 75%, where, let's say, a normal usage is 90%. But of course, this has not a one-on-one impact on our occupancy rate, and there we are protected by our long-term contracts. Also the fact that, let's say, a client knows that, due to the general scarcity of new positions in the market, that they try to keep, let's say, their space as long as possible and try to find internal solution before they want to give it back. Because the risk is when they give it back, that they never can, let's say, take it again later on.
Very important is that in general, the occupancy rates are in the sector, in the whole sector, are very high. Here in Western Europe, you speak about, let's say a vacancy between 2-3% in the market. Even Romania is below 5%, and there are almost no new constructions and no, let's say, unleased or unlet projects coming onto the market. So for the whole market, let's say there we have a very good and normal market, or even a better than normal market, because there is almost nothing available. But yes, sometimes, like for example, and that's a typical Belgian example, Nike is selling not so good. Adidas is doing better, but in Belgium we have the warehouses of Nike.
Nike is selling less, so indeed, Nike has around three hundred thousand square meters by themselves. They own that by themselves, and then they have some flexible contracts beside of, let's say, around two hundred thousand square meters. And yes, now, by selling less and by having adapted their stock, they will give back some spaces where they can. But also, in general, we are protected by our, let's say, long-term contracts and the fact that, let's say in general, occupancy rate is at the same levels as our portfolio.
And just to add that on your question on tenant demand and client retention, what we said, Rob, is for in the first releases, that it would drop from 90% to 80%. That's our expectation for 2025. And because we have a six-to-twelve-month notice period, so in advance, we know it, and this is what we expect based on that for 2025. So normally, each year, now, at this moment in the year, we know that we have to release for next year, 100,000 square meters, around 1%, and now it's 200,000 square meters, 1% additionally, that we need to rent for next year. And then, of course, you have the risk being temporary, some temporary vacancy, but very manageable. But we are working on that, doing the normal leasing work again.
But the opportunity is that you can increase your prices, of course, because it's under-rented, and then this is an easier discussion with a new tenant.
Yeah, and in general, and we can say that we are, let's say for, that we have good discussions with clients-
Mm-hmm.
On all the buildings that, let's say, are free or coming free. So we have very good discussions, and it is more about, is it the perfect place? Can I use the building? And we have, let's say, and not about pricing. It's not a price discussion, on the contrary, when people can use it, they want to pay for it. But, it is, let's say, back to normal, not more than that.
Okay, thank you. That was very extensive.
The next question is coming from, Wim Lewi from KBC Securities.
Yes. Hi, good morning, Joost and team. I hope you can hear me?
Yes.
Yeah.
Okay, perfect. Yes, I've got two questions. I'll ask them one by one. First question is on the investments, which you have announced of EUR 600 million, where two-thirds of those have been acquisitions, some of them high yielding, like in Romania, some lower yielding in Western Europe, like France, Germany, with reversion potential. That then basically adds up to the 7% expectation. Now, there is speculation, and I also see the share price go down. Maybe there is a link to some of the market rumors that you are in the market for the Auchan portfolio, which I think would be if that's around market values around-...
As big as all the acquisitions you have done so far, the risk there or the fear, I think, of the market is that it would be at low yields and then, pulling down the 7% outlook. Is there any comment you can give on that?
Well, of course, Wim, let's say we never can comment on rumors or, on, let's say, files that are for sale at the moment. Since indeed, you know that, you have to sign always NDAs, and of course, we have to follow those NDAs. We can say that indeed, like we mentioned before, that there are different files and that we see markets opening in France, less in Germany. There, the market is still closed, and but let's say we hope by the beginning of next year that, people, and that even there in Germany, we will go up to, let's say, point, the starting point or 0.5% yield. But let's say it's taking a while in Germany, and yes, in France, there are different possibilities.
But I can just, let's say, repeat what was in the article on Friday, some weeks ago, that was that indeed, Hines is trying to sell his original sale and rent back with Auchan, that it is about eight sites, that it is about, let's say, EUR 220 million, and that the yield is above 5.5%, and this is, let's say, what was written in that article. That article mentioned also us, that, let's say, it's up to them, but, let's say it is, that's what is in and, okay, and let's say it's, it is a possibility. It is one thing on the market.
So, and if we would be interested, let's say it is within our possibilities of the current balance sheet, but it is not, if you say that we are doing EUR 600 million, it's not EUR 600 million, and that, that article said it was EUR 220 million.
Okay. Clear, thanks. Would be great if all people stick to their NDAs, then would be a more efficient market. My second question is really on something that drew my attention. You mentioned that the 72% pre-let in the pipeline is a function of, among other things, but you mentioned specifically brownfields. Can you explain how that mechanism work, works, why brownfields have a negative impact on pre-lets?
Yeah, I know it's not really about the brownfield. First of all, I think it is important to say that all the projects who are, let's say, finalized, that they were fully and so, because. And it is more, let's say, due to specific reasons that sometimes we have to do, let's say, a speculative development. And, and that's one. One, it is, let's say, more small developments with multi-tenant possibilities close to the cities, like, for example, Prinsenhil and The Bay in Breda. That's really for urban logistics. Well, there, if you don't start that development, you will never let something. Really, people want to see the building. That's, let's say, about the spaces less than ten thousand square meter.
People need to see it, need to see that, and need to know when it is, it will be available. So, and there, we can say that Prinsenhil Phase 1 is now accomplished and fully let, and that indeed we are starting now Phase 2, which is, of course, not pre-let yet because we just started the building. The same in Kerkrade. So it is on one hand smaller buildings, most of the time, close to the cities, and on the other hand, on some brownfields, a part of the cleaning of the soil is indeed, let's say, putting concrete on the bad soil.
And then they say, "Look, we think that a warehouse is a good function on such a location." And then, as a final part of the cleaning of the soil, you need to put, let's say, a concrete on it, you need to put a warehouse on it. And then most of the time, like, for example, in Belgium, in Grimbergen, when you can buy or get an agreement with the authorities to get, in this example, it is a concession on that brownfield, then you need to promise that you will start up directly a development, because the development is part of the cleaning. And so sometimes then you have to, let's say, you have to start up on a speculative way in order to finalize the cleaning of the soil.
But as Jo said, all the developments that were delivered were fully let, and all the developments you see in the pipeline under construction that are not yet fully let only have a completion date as from 2026. There is sufficient time to lease up that space, and we are confident in that.
Okay, that's very useful. Thanks a lot.
Next question is coming from Callum from Colliers. Callum?... Then we'll go to the next question from Steven.
Hi, good morning, team, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. So first, what can we expect for like-for-like growth in 2025? Maybe you can break it down by assumption and indexation on CPI, but also the catch-up effect of rents that were kept in the high inflationary times. Expected impact of renewals to be caught in 2025, and maybe if you see a change in occupancy. That's the first.
Steven, when you look at our portfolio, the geographical mix, and when you look at inflation forecasts today for next year, then the inflation, the indexation part, should be around 2.2%. On the like-for-like impact, you know that we have a target of extracting over the time of the plan, EUR 1 per sq m over the entire portfolio on top of indexation, which translates into around 40 basis points per year, additionally, on top of indexation. We are on track to realize that, and I leave in the middle the occupancy rate because we always give guidance for the next year at the occasion of the full year results.
You know, we just mentioned the square meters we are working on for reletting, but you can also see that it's manageable, and we have a good track record in reletting, so you can take your own assumptions in there. I think you have all the building blocks.
Okay, very clear. Thank you. And my second question is, we've seen some below 5% yielding transactions in the Netherlands recently, but your fair values for the current portfolio has been flat in Q3. I would expect a small increase in fair value. I don't know how I should look at that. Maybe also some comments where you expect fair values for the existing portfolio to go in the next quarter, six months to go, too.
Yeah, we also see that clearly, and we've been seeing that also the first part of the year, that values have clearly bottomed out. And what you see now in our portfolio, that values for the existing portfolio have definitely bottomed out and are even conservative. The revaluations we had were linked to developments and also the acquisitions which had a good uplift or acquisitions in the last twelve months. And now it's probably also the cutoff point of starting to see some value increases in the existing portfolio, subject to the evolution of the rent cycle and more transactional evidence in the market, of course, but as you know, valuations are always a bit lagging as well. But we confirm that view you have.
Okay, clear. Thank you so much.
Callum, I'm going to give the floor again to you.
Morning. Can you hear me now?
Yeah.
Brilliant. Two quick questions on your Blend 2027 targets. On page 7, where you show the potential return slides. One trend we've seen in the U.S. this quarter is the decrease in reversionary potential due to market rent declining for the first time in a while. First question is, is this a concern for you at all, to get to Blend 2027 target? And then secondly, I think in your press release, you commented that customers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, which could delay future developments. I just wondered, how sensitive is that 2027 forecast to a scenario where, let's say, demand for new development gets pushed back another 6 to 12 months, and then, you know, are there any workarounds that you can do to offset that?
Yeah, I will, I will start. So on the 2027 target, and sensitivity to the ERV, Sam, that was your first question. No, there is no, no real sensitivity to that. We are confident that this will not have an impact, so we can be very clear on that. The second one on-
And even I would say on ERVs, we will have the possibility to let our rents grow up to ERVs, even when, let's say, within two, three years, there should be a normalization or even a stabilization of the ERVs. We can still continue to grow because, our legal systems are, different than the ones in the U.K., for example, and we can just attract the gap much longer. It takes much longer, it goes much-
But we can do it more easily through indexation, of course.
Yeah
... because we have good indexation clauses, and that's always the biggest impact, the indexation mechanism. In continental Europe, you index 100% of your existing leases, and you renegotiate on the leases that come to a final end or when space is given back. So, that's some color on that. And then on the wait and see on the developments, yeah, there, we can do a combination, let's say, like Joost mentioned, of developments and acquisitions, like we have always done.
Development, acquisitions, redevelopments in our own portfolio, higher rents, and therefore, we made Blend, and by saying it is not, let's say, not only one product out of our GAM, it's not only developments, and it's not only the Netherlands, for example. No, it is really across the countries, across the sectors, and there we have the advantage of being flexible and being active, let's say, wherever we can, as a developer, as an investor, as a redeveloper, as a value creating with, let's say, doing things with our clients together, cross-border, so that's the big advantage that we have more than one driver.
We are, let's say, fully in line and very based on this and based on the EUR 600 million of profitable investments. We are really, let's say, very confident in our 2027 guidance.
Understood. Thank you.
The next question is coming from, Vivien from Degroof Petercam.
I hope you can hear me now.
Yeah.
Yeah, perfect. Hello, everyone, and thank you for the extensive explanations. I just had one first question. Coming back on the demand, could you share your view on when you expect, I would say, market trends to go as from now, I would say, with the end of the cycle? And what type of requirement will you have to do to capture the reversion in the portfolio?
Yeah-
Could you repeat the last part, please?
Yeah. The question was, what will the effort will be to capture the reversion in the portfolio? I think that you mentioned lengthy, I would say, process, but do you believe that you will be able to capture everything in terms of reversion if there is further softening of the demand?
The most important thing in capturing the reversion is timing and contracts. And we have, let's say, a lot of existing contracts that we have to fulfill, and we have to, let's say, not only to fulfill NDAs, but also to fulfill our rental contracts. And so that's indeed the most important thing there is that we have to wait for the right moment in at the contractual moment that we can renegotiate our leases. But like Mick said, in the meantime, we have indexation that helps also. And there by having a portfolio with 12% under-rented we can still, even after, let's say, 15% of inflation the last years, we can still say that we can structurally capture inflation, and that's on 100% of the portfolio.
We are under-rented, so we can capture structurally inflation, and then, for the rest, we can hike the rents. Or, let's say, when a client leaves the building or when he is at the end of the contract.
On your question related to the evolution of market rents, we've come from double digit to mid-single digits to now low single digits, and we think it will grow more like in line with inflation as from here. But there is still upward pressure. Note that in Europe the vacancy rates of the market are 2%-3%. When all the stock that is being built spec today would come to the market, would only have an impact of Alexander-
Less than one hundred basis points. So in the end, Vivian, the market remains very strong. And also just to add a general comment on the softening of demand, it is true that when you look at the five-year figures, that data is around 20%-30% lower than the five-year average. But if you take abstraction, or if you make abstraction from the COVID highs between 2020 and 2023, data is perfectly in line with historical levels.
Yeah, and indeed, in general, the market is still right and healthy. If you look, I take Belgium as an example, but it's for the whole market. Current rents are between 50-52. The market rents of existing buildings are now around 60 EUR, and for a new development, it's even 70 EUR. So there, there are still the different step ups, and so there, let's say, the potential of rent reversion is there and will stay there. It's not, for example, that you can now rent a new building at a lower price than for an existing building, which has been the case in our sector, and during some years, let's say 10 years ago. So there, the trends are structurally healthy within our sector, and that stays like it is.
Mm-hmm. Then I had a quick question on the competitive landscape with regard to acquisition in France. I think that more and more players are looking into non-organic acquisitions, and so I would say, putting pressure on price. I think that you mentioned that the portfolio was, that Auchan portfolio was maybe above 5.5%. I think that yield might continue to go down. And where do you see other opportunities? I would say France will start to, I would say, to be an acquisition around 5%. The other country that you see, I would say you mentioned Germany, but other element that we could consider of interest for you?
I won't comment, like I said, on Auchan, because I don't know or... So but in general, we can say that, let's say, the market is now in France, between 5% and 7%. Five for real core, core products. There you are at 5%, and the developments, they are at 7%. I think, depending on how the market goes, there can be pressure on the seven, on the developments. But, let's say the five, the bottom is there, and for the moment, the bottom, let's say, is strong. And yes, then depending on the quality, core, core plus, the bigger the ticket, decentralized, centralized. Let's say you have a variety and a spectrum between 5% and 7% yield.
That's for France and for Germany, let's say, their people are now going up to the 5%. And I think you have seen-
... last week after Expo Real and, let's say, the opening of the markets in Germany, you have seen, for the first time, I think in two, three years, deals of 5% or between 5%-5.5%, the first deals, let's say, who starts with a five. So that's also a sign that hopefully, we can also find there a new starting point of 5%.
Thank you for the comments. That was it.
Frédéric, the floor is yours.
Can you hear me?
Yes. Yeah. Hello.
Oh, perfect. Hi, good morning. Just to come back on the slowdown of the market. So, of course, you describe a situation where the market is a bit slower than before, but we don't discuss yet potential bankruptcies in the sector. So I was just wondering: how do you assess this risk in your portfolio today, and has the situation worsened off over the last three, six months?
Frédéric, that situation has not changed, and we analyze our tenant base very regularly, and also note that in the growth of WDP's, the quality has improved very substantially, and also the risks have been spread and more diversified across sectors, across companies. Note that our single building risk is less than 2%, and all the top 10 tenants are spread over multiple buildings, even multiple countries, most of the time. When we make the assessment of our client base today, it has not changed from over the last couple of years with what we shared with you. Most of the tenants of our over EUR 400 million rent roll, the ones who have more than one million EUR rent, these are really big international companies.
Plus, when you look at then the weaker parts and, yeah, the weaker part is the companies which are financially more vulnerable in the SME segment and who are exposed to more cyclical sectors like industrial, automotive, wholesale, non-food retail. These are the ones that are a bit, that are cyclical, and so the SME segments companies within that segment, and that's around 5% of the portfolio. So that risk is very manageable. Today, we have a couple of them on watchlist, like we have all the time, but these are really in the smaller segment and more business as usual. And let's say, the tenant payment behavior hasn't changed and is very good, and the quality of the tenant base is also very good.
Note that also, we have good protection in place, six-to-twelve-month bank guarantee, corporate guarantees, and our good fallback of the quality of our warehouses, of course, and the fact that they are under-rented.
Okay. So, no, over the last three, four months. Maybe on requirements, I would add more view on are going, because is it a price and-
Fred, could you-
-coming on?
Sorry, Fréd, can you maybe repeat the question or put it in the chat because you're lagging a bit?
I'm sorry. Yeah, I am. I kind of have some technicality.
Yeah, maybe-
I will type the question on the chat.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Put it in the chat. Yeah.
Thank you.
In the meantime, we'll cover the first question from John. We'll come back on your question, Fréd.
Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me well?
Yes.
Yes.
Thank you for taking my question. I think you mentioned that clients are generally signing shorter leases. At the same time, you also say that occupancy is back to normal. Just to clarify, what is the average lease length that you are now signing on renewals?
The clients are not, John, signing shorter leases. No, that's not the case. Let's say that sometimes, let's say when existing client has a shorter contract, which was, let's say, in place before, then let's say, yeah, like for example, the case that I mentioned of Nike, that is, they have three, six, nine contracts, and they are now, let's say, Nike has probably, I would say, 10 contracts with certain parties, and they make that they have every year with a certain third-party logistics company, that they can, let's say, build up or bring down a little bit every year, and that they have a break every year, that they have not all their breaks at the same time.
Like we are, let's say, when we hedge our position, we also have, let's say, different ending points. That is what Nike do, and Nike is doing, too, but there is not any sign or any client who is really... There is no trend of shorter contracts, absolutely not, and our average duration is still five, six years.
Then, yeah, basically 10 years for end users and 3, 6, 9s, typically, for 3PLs and 5, 10 for in the Netherlands and also-
And globally-
... Yeah, on average, first break five years. But, yeah, you should also take into consideration the historical lease renewal rate of 90%.
Yeah.
And the until end date, it's 7 years, so it's a very long duration and a very strong. It's the client retention rate and loyalty. So the reason that they stay in the building, even after the contract ends, and it depends just on the type of tenants, like Alex said. End users sign for 10 years or more. You can also see that in the pipeline, the average lease length of leases in the pipe for the development projects is 10 years or more. And the logistics service providers, they always sign shorter contracts, 3, 6, 9, or 5 plus 5. And then your part of your question, which was also why do you mention occupancy is back to normal?
We, we wanted to highlight that the work of managing the occupancy is back to normal. What you had during the COVID years was really exceptional because then always in a big portfolio, you have some movement of tenants, tenants going out, tenants coming in, but the rent just continued. There was even no frictional vacancy related to tenant movement, and in every normal situation, you need to foresee three, six, nine months of changing the tenants, et cetera. We just, it just continued, and now we have to do the normal leasing work again, like pre-COVID, working on the letting, doing the normal stuff, and which is a core competency of WDP and its teams.
Very clear. And just on the 80% renewal rate that you mentioned for 2025, at the same time, you're also capturing 15% reversion. So do you expect this renewal rate to improve over the cycle, or will this remain at this level as you're pushing rents here?
Yeah, that will probably move back as the cycle changes positively again. Then people will hold on to their space, of course, because do not forget, when they need to lease it back, then it will be substantially higher price.
Substantially higher price, and don't forget, let's say when people don't need, and they want they don't want to move, they don't want to, let's say, go out of a building and come in a building because that asks a lot of CapEx, and gives operational KPI problems or risks. Let's say people, if they can, they just want to stay and to continue, it's asking money, time, and adaptations to the operations. So it is not, let's say, pleasant or funny to give back something or to re-rent it again. There's always giving, let's say, a lot of stress to our clients. So it's not that they like it.
Okay, that's very fair and helpful. Thank you.
I'm just gonna cover the question from Frédéric in the chat. So, the question that he was having is on tenancy requirements and the discussions that we're having. He's asking whether it's a problem of price, and accordingly, do we see more and more that we have to give more rental incentives? Is there any incremental change, or is the amount of investment currently too sizable in the current context for the tenants to make a decision? So by discussing with tenants, would you expect that the current easing of the monetary policy will have any positive effects for their decision-making?
Well, first of all, we can say, and like we said in the presentation, it's about do I need it? And it's not about pricing, it's not about pricing discussion. It is about, is this the right building on the right location? And then let's say, most of the time there is only one possibility. There are no multiple possibilities for a certain building. So it's not. It is a question about, do I need the building and not about pricing. So there are not more incentives. And the second part is-
Is the investment too big for them to make right now?
No, that's for new developments, not for existing. Let's say, that's for most of the time, and when you are thinking about a consolidation or a new entering a new market, or then, and when you want to enter a new market, and you need a new warehouse, or you want to consolidate, that's, let's say, always an important moment in a company. And that is asking a lot of investments in people, in, let's say, in the organization. And then when there are uncertain economic times, you always can wait a little bit, and then people are indeed waiting a little bit until they see more clear into the future.
And of course, with rates coming down, this can help them to decide also, when, let's say, their working capital comes down, yeah, then it is more easy to speak about more stock or stocks to go into a new market, for example. But this will take some time. Like the negative effect of rate hikes is lagging, also the positive effect of rates coming down takes a time, and we think that, let's say, that will take another twelve months before you will really feel the new rate environment.
Then another question is coming from Jonathan from Goldman. Go ahead.
... Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to expand on the new supply. I think you alluded to it earlier, saying that you expected 100 basis points impact from spec supply. So can you please expand just on what you're seeing in terms of new supply, that risk that you see further, and what you see from essentially people adding new projects or essentially new supply slowing down? Thank you.
Yeah, maybe just in general to comment, Jonathan, on the different markets. So when you look to the Benelux, the Netherlands and France, there you see that vacancy rates currently spot are at 2.5%-4.5%, 4.5% in France, and 2.5%-3% Benelux and in the Netherlands. And when you look at the current supply that's coming on the market, there you see that on average, 80% is pre-let. So if you would take into consideration the 20%, which is currently built on a speculative basis, and there is no net incremental demand anymore, that would have an impact of anywhere between 50-100 basis points on the existing vacancy rates.
Looking forward, there is no clear indication that supply will significantly increase over time.
Yeah. Pipelines are shrinking as well?
No, pipelines are. Let's say the development pipelines at risk, speculative, are really coming down very fast, and there is, let's say, so that's, let's say, the big advantage of our sector is that you don't have to decide five years ago about building a new development. We are still. Okay, it is not within 12 months anymore. It has taken 12-24 months, but we still, in our sector, we and our colleagues can still go forward or stop very fast. It's not like in the office or in a commercial center. Yeah, when you decide about a big office development or about a new commercial shopping center, yeah, that takes years, and even when the cycle turns, you cannot change your plans. But we can.
We, as a sector, let's say, we can change our plans very fast and adapt easily to the market evolutions. That has always been the case, let's say, as far as I have been in the sector, already for twenty-five years. This has always been the case. We can adapt very fast, which makes that our occupancy rate. Look at our occupancy rate over the years. We are at, on average, 98%. Even there, we have had cycles during the last twenty-five years. We have always had a very stable occupancy rate through the cycles.
Maybe, Jonathan, also just to add the 70 or the 50-100 basis points, supply in perspective, this amounts to 2-4 months of data on an annual basis in the markets.
Okay, and so the current level, if you look at the overall, not just the percentage on that, and how much of that is as a percentage of the market?
Sorry?
I was just trying to quantify the existing supply coming to market, whether that's large or not. I mean, obviously, you said 80% is pre-let, which we appreciate, that we see the risk is very limited on that. There's not a lot of spec, but is that a lot of space coming in, or is that a limited amount of space? It's just what I want-
That's limited. So that's basically the 50-100 basis points comment that I made, is based on the total supply in these markets respectively. So-
For sure, but if that's only 20%, that is spec, right? It means that there's still a fair amount of supply coming through, no?
Yeah, yeah. So.
If you look at the open-
That question, sorry. So when you look differently at the total supply, taking into account the pre-let and the spec-
Yeah
... there you typically have around 2.5%-3% that's currently under development. So that will be added to the total supply on the market.
How is that comparing versus historic levels?
It's in line. It's even, it's actually coming down a bit. And that's something that you see, is that the current cost of capital, construction costs and permitting, and scarcity of land is currently also restricting new developments.
All right, thank you.
There are no further questions, so I will hand over the floor to Joost for final comments. But just a final comment from Gert De Mesure . So maybe to summarize, end of the cycle, market is less buoyant, but after all, little figures, little or no impact on WDP figures? Question mark.
Yeah, indeed, so I think, thank you, Gert, so you made my conclusion, so indeed, I can think we are very comfortable. Yes, we are, let's say, structurally. The long term stays positive. We are at the end of the cycle, so we are, and then which means that we have to work as usual within our core competencies, but we are very confident for the short term and the long term, and indeed, occupancy, let's say, we work on it, but back to usual. We can grow further. It is time to buy, and we have, let's say, a very good balance sheet in order to realize all this.
Thank you, and let's say, we still have almost two and a half months to work further to all those very nice projects. Thank you all, and see you soon.