Good morning, everyone. Can someone please confirm if you can hear us right now?
We can hear you.
Yes, we can.
Okay. Apologies. Thank you. We had a small technical issue, so this is solved now. Joost?
Yes, I will restart my explanation as you did not hear it yet. I would say, let's dive directly into our results. I think, yes, we can say that we had a very strong Q1 with more than 150,000 sq m of new leases and more than EUR 300 million investments secured. Yes, is the answer on the question, is there still demand for logistics real estate? Even more important is the fact that we, as WDP, are able to capture that demand. That's one of our long-standing core competences. We signed 165,000 sq m of new leasing contracts in Q1 across all segments and countries in the existing portfolio, in the pipeline in execution, and new developments. Above that, we see a normalizing retention rate, which is reflected in the higher renewal rate year to date of already 80% versus 65% normally.
This shows early signs of recovery and reinforces our statement of the full year results. We are bottoming out and have reached an inflection point. Of course, today, we live in a very volatile geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, so making predictions remains difficult. It looks like during COVID, we are seeing an acceleration of existing trends, the continentalization, which reminds me of the Brexit with the unbundling of goods flows between the U.K. and continental Europe, with finally a limited impact on the need of warehouse space in continental Europe. All this is a unique opportunity for Europe. We have long-time outsourced our security to the U.S., our energy supply to Russia, and our production to China. Now it's time to insource it back within one of the biggest consumer markets in the world.
In the meantime, it's all about the importance of the global supply chain in the public and corporate agenda. If we look more into detail into our portfolio, we mainly see local European distribution activities instead of real transatlantic operations. Above the leasing activities, indeed, on top of that, we have secured more than EUR 300 million new deals, which makes that our pipeline of exclusive negotiations is almost fully colored in. All unique, complementary, profitable deals over the different regions and value drivers. It's all about Blend 27, multiple drivers in multiple markets. One example probably of the value and the power of WDP is indeed our last deal with KDL in Lokeren. It's not about leasing a space, not about a development. It's about offering total solutions.
There we could help KDL in their growing business, and we could offer them a total solution by offering our total package. Yes, we could rent a temporary space in order to make a new development possible for him in order to prepare it and to prepare his growth. In order to make it financially possible, we did a sale and leaseback of his existing space so that KDL can grow further with a total new combination of his existing fully automated high- bay and a new normal warehouse development. The combination enforces the total possibility to offer solutions by KDL. All of this helped by renting out an existing space.
In order to realize that, you need an existing portfolio, you need land to develop, and you need the capability to do sale and rent backs, and that all in existing clusters close to each other. That is the real difference and the real USP of us. Of course, this pipeline is fully funded and generates now a fully funded balance sheet neutral investment pipeline of EUR 800 million, more than 80% pre-let at an NOI yield of 6.7%. Execution and letting will be key in order to realize Blend 27. It is all in our own hands. We just have to do it. Now we are open for Q&A.
To all participants, please raise your virtual hand, and then we will address the questions one by one. The first question is coming from Callum. The floor is yours. Please unmute yourself.
Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just two. I appreciate the world is full of unknowns at the moment, but can you comment on any change in occupier sentiment that you've seen following, obviously, the Liberation Day tariffs, particularly as it relates to taking up incremental new space or pre-leasing? As a second question, do you foresee any noticeable impact to your business, whether it's the automotive sector or elsewhere, when tariffs go back online in July? Is there any ways that you're thinking you can mitigate this?
First, I can say that in each since Liberation Day, there has for the moment no difference. I think after Liberation Day, we were able to finalize our two new developments and the KDL deal. Up till now, we cannot say that anybody stopped negotiations or stopped, let's say, signing of a contract. Yes, you can say that in general with the new atmosphere, we have had one small, let's say, American company who said, "Look, I will think about it was an add-on on an existing site." They said, "Yeah, we need more time." That was even before Liberation Day. Until today, and looking also, let's say, forward on the running negotiations, we cannot say that we have seen really change in behavior of our clients.
Concerning the automotive sector, indeed, and that's not new, even before Liberation Day and before the tariffs with the change towards more electrical-driven cars and the electrification of the automotive industry, that industry has difficulties, is in a changing process, and that's also not new. For us, there is, let's say, we have some clients who are subcontractors to the automotive sector, but that's a limited part of our portfolio, Mick, and let's say, for the rest, it's also a bigger part is spare parts and so on. There are difficulties in the automotive, and I would say more general in the industry, but also that did not went worse the last week. That's already from last year.
On the contrary, I would say that now that there is a new German government and with the new investment plans in infrastructure in Germany and the defense industry, that will help the industry globally. I think there is a call of urgency in Europe with the politicians that, let's say, we have to help and to safeguard our industry. Normally, all those plans would help industry to recover in Europe.
That's clear. Thank you.
Vivien, the floor is yours.
Yes. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Yeah. Perfect. Thanks for the presentation. Two questions on my side. First, I think that we had some positive on the retention rate, and I would say the letting is going quite well. I believe that in your guidance, you assume occupancy above 97%. Would you see it fair to say that there is upside potential to that, or is there any planned departure combined with the delay arrival for new tenants that we should take into account that might drive occupancy down? That's the first one, and I'll wait for the second one.
There is always upside potential, of course, until you have 100%. Let's say we have taken in general into account for all the leasings in the existing portfolio, in the pipeline in execution, and for our developments, let's say there we have taken a period of one and a half years or almost two years until 2027. We have taken for ourselves the time to pre-lease. Of course, if we can do faster and more, we will do. Today, like I mentioned, we have seen very nice activity, and we still see very nice activity in Q2. Let's say it's too early to say that we will, that we can do better. Of course, we are working very hard on that.
In Q2, we can, let's say, say almost for sure that we will go to the 97% occupancy due to the fact that the 100,000 sq m that we had seen coming free at Q3 will now really during Q2 become empty. Yes, we will go to the 97%. Indeed, as from there, there is always an upside.
It is fully as foreseen that the occupancy will make a bottom in Q2 at 97%, and we are working to recover that to the previous levels. We have given ourselves two years to do that to then have the impact by 2027 that is included in the business plan, blend 2027.
Clear. Thanks. The second one on investments. I mean, you have executed a lot of the EUR 400 million of the deals in exclusive negotiation that you had, only EUR 80 million remain, I think. Are you still looking into opportunities there, and what would be your criteria to pull the trigger? Given that your balance sheet, I mean, you are fully funded on your plan, but as you know, many large new investments will make it more complex. What would be the criteria for you to, I would say, to seize new opportunity outside of the one you have already in your pipeline?
Like I said, the biggest value now is in finalizing the EUR 800 million investment pipeline. Let's say there is still nice work to do on the letting side and on timely execution so that, let's say, all the investments and all the buildings are ready and let, let's say, the end of 2026. There we can really make the difference. We do not need any new investments. That is really the most important thing. Of course, if there are opportunities, we will look at it. The big advantage is that yes, we can do them, but we do not need them. Yes, there is still margin in our balance sheet to do further investments.
Clear. Thank you.
John, the next question is for you.
Hi. Yes. Good morning. Hope you can hear me well. Thank you for the presentation. Joost, you just mentioned also good activity and then gradual recovery in demand. Could you provide a bit more color on this? Are you seeing new letting discussions, or are these still discussions you had previously, but occupiers are now actually taking decisions?
Like I said, we see activity like in the existing portfolio. We said during the year, the full year results that it is more in the smaller sites in the existing portfolio because, like I said, there it's easier to jump. It's not on the negotiations we have. It is not a question of pricing. It is, am I ready to jump? Do I want to sign and, like I said, take a step of belief in the future and go forward? There we see more activity in the smaller units. Besides that, in the existing portfolio, in the development, in the pipeline, in the development, that's also where we see the same activities.
Indeed, besides that, for the bigger lettings, we have seen two bigger lettings in the development part where we have had the big one in Romania and the big one in the Netherlands. In the more defensive industries like food, we will always need food and will always eat, so it is in the food industry. In Romania, it was in the more consumer-driven area because their economic growth is double that in Western Europe. They still have a long way to go. There you see that, yes, there is still growth in consumer needs. There you see those bigger demands, and it is faster going into a new development since there was also nothing available that fits with their needs.
I think we can say that for Q2, we still see the same trends, and we have, let's say, the same kind of negotiations running across the border.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you. Just on your average cost of debt, I saw it went up by 40 basis points over the quarter. What has exactly changed there? Could you highlight that?
Yes, it's Mick here speaking. Last year, the cost of debt was 1.9 on average, and the underlying cost of debt has not increased on an organic basis. It's simply the effect of adding more investments funded through debt. That's the effect, the mechanic effect of adding a higher incremental borrowing rate. The mechanical effect and where it is right now, the 2.3 is where it should be for the remainder of the year, and it should stay below in the business plan when we execute below 2.5% until 2027.
Okay. Clear. Thank you.
Frederic, the next is for you.
Yes. Good morning. Sorry. Two on my side, mostly on the market. Just in the presentation and in the press release, you mentioned a 1.8% organic growth, which was driven by a combined effect of indexation and rental growth of 3%, but partly affected by temporary vacancy of 1.2%. If I'm not mistaken, you're considering 3% of organic growth by the end of this year. I'm just wondering with what you describe in terms of additional temporary vacancy in the portfolio in H1, is your outlook at risk with that regard?
No, Frederic, it's Mick speaking here. This is actually fully in tune with what we have guided for at the full year results because at the full year results, we said that the combined impact of indexation and rent reversion was 3.0% of the outlook for 2025. You could see that in the bridge with the earnings per share, it's still also here in the presentation that around half of that would be offset by a temporary increase in the vacancy rate. What we show now, what we show now is consistent with that guidance.
Okay. So you mean that organically from a like-for-like point of view, the guidance is actually not 3%, but more 1.5% for the full year?
Yeah. As you can see on the slides. Apart from occupancy impact, the organic growth is 3%. You have also a drop foreseen in the occupancy rate to a minimum of 97%, which will offset around half of that, which you can see in the bridge, in the EPS bridge.
That's clear. Another question.
That is a temporary impact, which we expect then to recover by 2027, of course. That is not lost.
Okay. Another question. I noticed that you did not give, so you mentioned that you signed 165,000 sq m of lease, but this time, you did not mention the uplift that you achieved on previous rents. Is it on purpose?
Yeah. I understand the question, but it was not relevant, that number, because it was in the 165,000 sq m is rental activity across the board. Not only in the existing portfolio, but also for new development projects and for development projects which were on course and still unlet. We can confirm that all these lettings have been done at the ERV. That is why we phrased it like that, that all these lettings have been done at the ERV and without any incentive for the record.
It were new leases, and then there is no higher leases. For example, for Breda, the Prinsenhil site, there I can say.
That's in the Prinsenhil site, in the development pipeline.
In the development pipeline, that more urban-driven redevelopment site of us, there two years ago, the first lettings were at EUR 70 per sq m, and now the last one is done at EUR 90 per sq m. Of course, it is a new one. It is not a higher rent. Indeed, there you see also the positive evolution of the rents.
Okay. On your existing portfolio, so on lease which were achieved on existing one, you don't have the figure?
Yeah. That's on average plus 10%.
Yeah. On average, it's 10%.
10%.
Okay.
What we guided for in Blend 27 is that we believe we can, and we target that we can capture above indexation EUR 1 per sq m across the entire portfolio within this plan, which should translate into around 40-50 basis points rent reversion on top of indexation throughout the four-year plan. We are performing consistent with that.
Okay. Maybe just quickly on the last one where you mentioned that you gave no incentive. I guess this could be more due to the fact that it was due to the new ones. I'm hearing that in Belgium, it's becoming now back to market practice to give actually a bigger incentive on some projects. Can you confirm?
No. Let's say there are no new or no more incentives than before. We have not discussed, let's say, sometimes for a new development, Frederic, as always, yeah, the client sometimes needs, let's say, three months or something like that to install and to organize his warehouse. That is normal, for example, for a new development, that you give them the capability to organize the warehouse, and then they can start paying rent as from the moment that they use it. That has always been the case, and that shall always be the case, but not more than those, let's say, some months. For the rest today, like I said, it's not a price or an incentive discussion because that's for me the same. It is really, do I sign, do I jump, or do I wait a little bit?
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next one in line, can unmute himself?
Hi, guys. It's Paul from Barclays.
Hey, Paul.
Hey. Right. Four, but it should be relatively quick. I see that the yield on cost on the completed development was only 6%. Just wondering if there's any specifics in there, specific projects that were particularly low or why that's come in, obviously, below what you would probably guide to or target. Should we take them one by one?
Can we take them one by one?
Yeah.
Yeah. It's Mick speaking here. Yeah. You notice that very well. The overall investment pipeline is at 6.5%-7% on the high yield. It's true that the projects which were now completed, delivered, and transferred to the existing portfolio were at a bit lower yield, especially in the Benelux area. That was simply the result of projects that were commercially signed at the peak of the market, which have now come online, but which were also still funded at the old cost of capital, of course, with the pre-hedges we signed early 2022. That's the result of that.
Okay.
The yield was a little bit lower, but the margin was the same.
Yeah. Yeah. We're hearing that there's more portfolios that are coming to the market, particularly as some of the existing low cost of debt starts to be refinanced. Just wondered if you're seeing an increase in attractive opportunities. I think there's a large Brookfield portfolio out there at the moment. I just wondered if you give any color on that would be great.
Of course, we cannot say something about running tenders because if we look at it, we are, let's say, we have to sign an NDA. In general, I think, yes, there is, that's a public. The Brookfield one is a public name. That indeed, there is a tender running, and we will see where it ends. For the rest, I would say there is the normal activity and the normal kind of deals, but not more than that today. I would not say that there is more activity. For the moment, absolutely not due to the fact that there should be financing or refinancing problems. We are probably all waiting a little bit for that, but we don't see it yet. It's just the normal activities.
Okay. You mentioned a few times the leverage neutral investments. However, leverage does continue to tick up quarter on quarter. I think that's been for the last few quarters. Debt funding acquisitions and investments will see net debt to EBITDA increase. I don't think there's any way you can easily offset that if you're debt funding those investments. I just wondered on that debt neutral investment strategy, is that just on an LTV basis that you're looking at that, or do you see some offsetting factors, some payment in kind, some equity funding to ensure the net debt to EBITDA doesn't increase?
To fund the plan, to give you the big picture, the business plan, Blend 27, which from the perspective of December 31, 2024, with EUR 1 billion incremental investments still scheduled, that is capital structure neutral on LTV and on the net debt to EBITDA, with the EUR 1 billion put to be seen against EUR 600 million of auto financing through retained earnings and scrip dividend, which is EUR 200 million per year. Technically, yes, it is a bit more debt loaded in the beginning of the plan because now we had a very strong quarter in terms of investment, in terms of timing coming together. The cash flow will come online, on stream. Over the three-year horizon, the net debt to EBITDA will stay below eight times, and our LTV will trend downward again towards 40%. That is capital structure neutral.
Just on the net debt to EBITDA.
To add further on that, how we look at it is that our policy metrics, our overarching metric is a net debt to EBITDA of around eight times. A loan to value, which stays structurally, whatever happens across cycles, below 50%, which means in practice you operate between 35-45%. We have room on both metrics. For example, it would take us EUR 500 million debt funded acquisition, for example, to get towards the eight times. Yes, there is room, but important, it's also not needed for the growth plan because the biggest value, as you said, is execute and lease, which will give us a 15% cumulative EPS growth by 2027.
Okay. Just to confirm, it's neutral versus your policy as opposed to neutral versus the existing 7.2 net debt to EBITDA because I think it was below seven when you started. It's fairly saying versus our policy of eight, it's neutral, but leverage will increase.
Yeah. It's in between. It's in between because end 2027, through the execution of this plan, net debt to EBITDA will be below eight times, and LTV will be below 40. It's in the middle of that.
Yeah. Perfect. Sorry, just last one. I think reversions were reduced over the last few periods. Can we assume from that that market rental growth remains pretty much around 0% at the moment?
Yes. In Q1, ERVs were stable. Also note that it is also more like a desktop review valuation. In the short term, ERVs are stable, and we expect them to grow in line with inflation for the foreseeable future. We can also capture them, and that is confirmed by our letting activity. Yeah. We are still, let's say, 10% under-rented. We still have some time to capture those higher rents. For every, let's say, building which becomes free, we can indeed relet them at the market values, which are at least 10% higher.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Jonathan, the next question is for you.
Hi. Yes. Just two questions. One, just to bounce back on this one, just to reconfirm because I'm not sure it was entirely clear. The letting that you've done on your existing portfolio, the 165,000, but the part for the existing, that was done at plus 10%. The quarter, that was done at the same pricing. Okay. That's good. I wanted to dig also a bit further into the different industries that you have in your portfolio. We've talked about auto on the one hand. We've talked about consumer-type industries in the EU. What is the behavior of the other industries right now in your portfolio? I'm thinking of 3PLs, perhaps in particular. Are they more takers of space? Are they more, would they more release space? What is the behaviors of the different industries that you have in the portfolio at this stage? Who's taking space? Who's releasing space?
The ones that are taking space that are active in food and food e-commerce and successful consumer brands, I would say. FMCG, but then there is more like, say, no net increase in FMCG. Yeah.
Okay.
It is more driven by, let's say, it is indeed driven by smaller transactions instead of real. There is no one sector or two sectors who are doing, let's say, much better or much worse. It is more that today people jump for smaller, let's say, for existing buildings in the smaller units. Indeed, for the bigger sites, it is food and consumer-driven.
It is also important to point out that almost two-thirds of the portfolio is really in very stable sectors like food, pharma, post-parcel, FMCG.
What about 3PLs? Because at some point, they had perhaps too much space, and they were releasing some or subletting some. Is that something that you're seeing at this stage as well?
I think they stay at the, I think the 3PLs, I would say they stay stable, and they get also stable utilization degrees. No further decrease in their utilization. I would stay stable on a little bit lower level, but stable and also looking forward. Yeah, who knows that we will see some tenders, some bigger tenders the coming months within the 3PL world.
Okay. Good. Subletting, is that something that is changing at the moment? Is there decreasing, increasing, depending on the, I mean, you're thinking pretty good.
No, not really. I would say there is no change. No, there is no change in that.
Thank you.
Next question from Pierre- Emmanuel.
Yes. Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to have quick follow-up questions on your life cycle, just to fully understand. Should we consider that you took a 10% reversionary potential or reversion to be your guidance 2025? And looking at the potential impact on your life cycle growth on the increasing vacancy rate, should we consider it would be 150 basis points negative or it could be higher than that?
Yeah. That's around that level of one in the guidance, around 150 basis points negative impact from occupancy in 2025, which we then can afterwards recover. In the four-year plan throughout 2027, we take at the end a recovery in the occupancy rate, of course, like we have mentioned. Apart from the changes in occupancy, the trend in there, we take the indexation CPI plus 40 basis points. The 40 basis points is then coming from renewing each year a number of contracts which are at their very end at plus 10%. That's the impact of 40 basis points above indexation because we cannot just each year reset upwardly all contracts that come to a break because there you can only do it at the very end of a contract, legally speaking.
Should we consider that it will be 40 basis points as well in 2025, or will it be more? Or would it be more?
Yeah. It's in the guidance. It's in the guidance. In the guidance.
Okay. It's 10% reversion.
That's 10% reversion on a part of the portfolio. Yeah.
Okay. Understood. In 2026, can you remind us how many rents you have to renegotiate in 2026? Do you have already received any potential departure, or is it too early?
People are now fully concentrating on 2025, and we are now, let's say, speaking and talking, let's say, the last part of 2025 and the year end. Let's say it's too early to say something yet about 2026. Now, let's say people are concentrating on 2025 and the year-end leases. And for 2026.
Okay. You did not receive any departure announcement so far?
No, not specific, not others than normal.
Okay. Maybe a final question, but it's more, let's say, an industry question on what is going on today. Do you have a view on inventories of your tenants today? If you have one, any idea on the changing inventories that is currently happening today due to the trade war? Is there any less containers arriving into Europe or not? Do you have any color on that or not at all?
I think that's too difficult for us to have really to ask to the merchants and the DSVs of this world, the container shippers. Yes, we have, like you have read in the press, that some people changed some stock from Europe to the States or vice versa, but that are, let's say, temporary movements in order to look and to see if they can, let's say, mitigate some temporarily, but that's no structural elements. That's difficult for us to give a real view on that. Therefore, you need to be with the shipping liners.
Also, not a phenomenon in our portfolio because our portfolio is really there to supply the European economy and consumer.
Okay. Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.
We have a final question coming from Bruno.
Yes. Good morning, Joost and Mick. Happy to hear that you are on track with Blend 2027. I was wondering about Sweden and Germany, on which I have nothing read in the press release. In 2022, you made a cooperation with Catena for Sweden, and you took over your development partners in Germany. I have the impression that they are not generating a lot of projects. Is this also your appreciation? What do you expect from those countries, and which will probably be your actions to improve their contribution to the result of WDP in the next years?
For Sweden, it's very easy, Bruno. There you have to wait until the first quarter result of Catena next week, which they will publish next week. I cannot say anything about the Swedish market for the moment since I am, we are in a closed period, and we have, let's say, to wait for their results. Germany, yeah, let's say, we are building further. We did less than initially foreseen, but like mentioned already sometimes before, that's due to aggressive pricing. Indeed, let's say, the Germans did not accept the new market reality with the higher cost, with the higher cash cost of capital since 2022. They still try to sell below 5% yield.
There we always said that we want to do something extra if needed in the new countries, but we do not go below our target of 5%. Germany, we wait, and we see until, let's say, the moment is there that we can do good deals. Last year, do not forget, we did a very nice deal with Fiege in North Rhine-Westphalia. We are spotting the market in order to do new deals and to grow further in Germany after we did, let's say, major steps in France. On Catena, I can say that they are performing very well. They have grown very hard last year. They invested, I think, by head more than EUR 500 million also. They invested in new deals. They are doing very good business. You can read the news next week.
Okay. Thank you.
Nadir, a final call, and then we have to conclude for people to join the Cofinimmo call.
Yes. Hello. Good morning. Nadir from UBS. Just a quick question. I'm looking at page four of your press release. I see you see indexation of EUR 6 million in 2025 and then EUR 19 million between 2026 and 2027. Are you therefore seeing an increase in inflation in your base macro case going into coming two years, or is that just because the rent roll has increased between the two years? Thank you.
No, no. That's simply the contractual indexation, which is foreseen based on the inflation assumption of 2%. That's the effect of that.
The 2% has not changed going from 2025 to 2026 to 2027, given the current macro situation. You are still assuming a flat 2%.
Yeah. To be honest, we give you the assumption on which it is based, but I think we can all say that it changes every day. We will have to look what it gives. We can only say that we are fully CPI-linked in our contracts.
Very clear. Thank you.
That, sir, concludes our Q&A session. Joost, any final remarks?
Yes. I think indeed we can say as a concluding remark, I can just repeat our forward-looking strategic pitch since the beginning of the year. I think we are well on track to create a unique EUR 10 billion plus logistics real estate developer and investor in Western Europe with an add-on in Romania, which is good for you, the investors' community, the big safe and liquid play in Western Europe, but also good and important for our clients because we can offer more and more cross-border and better integrated solutions for them. We can realize this not only by growing, but with profitable growth, with a foreseen 15% growth in EPS up to 2027. Today, there stays an interesting entrance point at 7% earnings yield. All of this is only possible thanks to the structural long-term good fundamentals of the logistics real estate sector.
Yes, there is a limited cyclicality in our business, which we can handle, as you can see and as we showed in this Q1 report. The recent weeks have shown really the importance of the worldwide supply chain infrastructure. Everybody speaks about it. Supply chain is key and future-proof within the continentalization. Thank you all for listening to us, and I would say good luck with our colleagues of Cofinimmo at 11:00 A.M.
Bye-bye.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Bye-bye. There is no conf call, by the way.
Thank you. Bye.