Good afternoon, and welcome to the Techcombank Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Presentation. Today, Jens Lottner, CEO, will begin with opening remarks, and Ethan Wynn, Head of Business Finance, standing in for our CFO, will share more details of the financial results and business updates, followed by a questions and answers session. Jens and Ethan will present in English, with live Vietnamese translation available via a separate link. As usual, there will be another call in Vietnamese tomorrow for retail investors. Today's presentation and Q&A will last around 90 minutes. With that, I'll turn it over to Jens to begin the presentation.
Good afternoon everyone, and to the Second Quarter 2025 Result Presentation. As we probably all know, these have been interesting times, and of course, this was a very interesting quarter for everyone to watch, given the tariff discussion and other developments. I think it's probably fair to say that as Techcombank, we managed very well during that second quarter. It was actually the highest quarterly profit we ever recorded in our history. When we look at the TOI numbers, they are a little bit down for the first half 2025 compared to the first half 2024. The main reason is, A, there was quite some NIM compression, which is owed to the competitive dynamics right now in the market.
The other one, also, as we said already during the first quarter presentation, we had very, very strong results, extraordinarily strong results in the first quarter of 2024, which were also due to trading income, which was not repeated this year. However, when we look at the PBT, we're very well on track to achieve our targets, and we're very much in track with the guidance we provided, as well as our long-term growth trajectory. Return on assets have come down a little bit, which is just owed to the fact, again, NIM, and we're coming down because of the competitive pressure in the market. CASA still stands very, very strong, and we improved that on multiple accounts on the retail side, SME, as well as on the corporate side, thanks to a lot of new offerings we introduced to the market.
NPLs are still amongst the lowest in the industry, gone up a little bit, mostly due to the spillover from the Credit Bureau. If we would just look at our kind of own organic NPLs, we would actually see that they are broadly stable. Therefore, also, our risk cost is very, very low compared to last year. Our loan loss provisioning is still actually relatively strong at 106%. CAR still very strong, came down a little bit, which is mostly owed to the fact that we expanded our book quite considerably in the first half. Year-to-date growth is around 10.6%, which, again, is very much in line with the expectations we had at the beginning of the year. Overall, I think very strong performance of the bank and in line with what we had guided.
I think I will now hand it over to Ethan to give you a little bit more detail about some of the numbers and the drivers behind it. Ethan.
Thank you, Jens. And good afternoon, everyone. First, let's start with the usual view of our macro environment. We started the second quarter with quite a lot of uncertainty around the impact of the US tariff on the economy of Vietnam. Despite the fact we still have a relatively strong set of economic data, as you can see, GDP growth for the second quarter reaching 8%, slightly accelerated compared to quarter one, thanks to strong FDI and export growth. Inflation stabilized at 3.3% and has been in this range for the past four quarters, which is a positive signal of price stability, which is supportive for the central bank to continue to run the low rates policy. FDI continued to be a strong point for the quarter with dispersed FDI at $6.8 billion, thanks to the capital expansions in manufacturing and some M&A deals.
And we expect this continues to be strong for the full year at $26 billion-$28 billion. Export growth rebounded strongly at 18% growth year on year, partially driven by the dynamic of the trade deals as some of the US suppliers might have front-loaded the orders in anticipation of the tariff hike. However, we expect the full-year export to continue to be strong at 14-16%, given the favorable outcome of the negotiation with the US. PMI contracted slightly to 48%, whereas FX rates continue to be under pressure. Overall, I would say we are optimistic about the macro environment as there are several factors supporting the economy in the second half, namely strong export growth, robust FDI, together with the government support for transformations and the supportive central bank in their risk policy. Moving now to the banking sector.
As I mentioned, the central bank continues to run an accommodative monetary policy to support the economic growth. They have been trying to keep the lending rates at a stable and supportive level since last year. As such, we have seen corporate debt growth for this year at 9.9% for the first half, which is one of the strongest levels for the first half since over the past six years. However, at the same time, as Jens mentioned, we also see a lot of cooperative in the lending on the markets, which is impacting the asset yields of the sector. On the funding side, credit growth is also relatively strong, 6.1%, but slightly lacking the credit growth.
On FX, although the dollar index has gone down by almost 10% year-to-date, the FX still continues on the uptrend, mainly due to the interest rate differential between the two currencies that have not been supportive for the dong. As such, the central bank has to step in to defend the currency, which has caused some of the tighter liquidity, as you can see, in the interbank market rates. For some of the short-term tenure, we see that the interbank rates are even higher than the customer deposit rates. We think that this condition might not be sustainable in the long run for some of the smaller banks, with a higher reliance on the interbank funding. Next, let's now look at our financial highlights for the quarter.
As Jens said, in this quarter, we achieved the highest second quarter in the history of the bank in terms of PBT, as we reached VND 7.9 trillion in total profit. We are on the right course to achieve the full-year guidance of VND 31.5 trillion. On the revenue side, however, TOI growth has been slightly lower than last year, driven by the NII and a little bit on NFI. On the NII side, the main contributor to that was due to the intense level of competitiveness in the lending markets, together with our flexible pricing policy, which is compressing the NIM a little bit. On the fee income side, we have some regulatory change, which is impacting our LCU pass business, together with some technical accounting change, which is impacting the card business.
Other than that, our core business in terms of fee income is still growing at a very good momentum. Therefore, the contributions of NFI to TOI still remain at a very stable level of 34%, which is very strong compared to our peers. Another key highlight was on the CASA ratio, as we achieved back to above 40% level, and other offerings for merchants. Overall, I would say that we are operating at a very high level of profitability and efficiency, with our cost-income ratio of 30%, return on assets of 2%, together with NPL and CAR ratio, among the best in the industry. This slide provides an overview of our P&L. As Jens mentioned, our revenue continues to be facing some headwinds with the competitive pressure in the markets.
In that context, while the bank is working on some business opportunities, we're trying to manage our OPEX and improve our trade quality, which have both contributed quite positively to the bottom-line result. As you can see, just again, noting that this is the highest second quarter in terms of PBT in the history of the bank. Also, if you look at the chart at the bottom, this is the long-term chart, which has smoothed out some of the volatility from seasonal and one-off factors. Techcombank still managed to achieve quite a phenomenal compounded growth rate of 90% since early 2018. Let's take a look at the performance of our wealth banking.
We started to introduce these slides in the previous quarter, and in the second quarter, the wealth banking achieved an impressive result of VND 4.1 trillion in revenue, which was up strongly 14% year-on-year, driven by a number of key businesses. Number one, on the investment distribution business, we achieved a robust growth of 100% year-on-year, thanks to our on-bond underwriting business. As we managed to capture 45% of the market share in the first half in terms of non-bank bonds, plus the very strong demand from the Wealth clients. Our insurance business also grew very strong, at 22% year-on-year and 30% versus quarter one. On our affluent banking side, the growth has been relatively modest, mainly due to the lower lending rates and compressing NIM.
However, if you look at the right-hand side, the number of affluent customers is still growing at a very fast pace at 73%, while the AUM is growing at 48% year-on-year, which is phenomenal. This will set it up for a very strong earning capability for the coming periods. Overall, I would say that the Wealth Bank will continue to be one of our key focus strategic plays, representing one-third of revenue. I think this continues to be a critical engine in our financial performance going forward. Looking now at the details of the balance sheets and the interest income, our interest earning assets grew by 20% year-on-year, mainly due to customer loans also growing at the same pace, 20% versus last year. In terms of the year-to-date, total loan books grew at 12% compared to the beginning of the year, slightly accelerated versus the previous quarter.
It is worth noting that we are cautiously growing our balance sheets in this competitive market, as we want to, and we're trying to balance between growth, profitability, and also diversification. On the funding side, our total funding grew by 14% year-on-year, mainly thanks to the customer deposit, which has a strong growth of 20% versus last year, whereas the balance in the interbank market declined 11%. This was the proactive response due to the differential between the rates in the interbank and the customer deposits in order to manage our cost of fund and also enhance the stability of our funding base. Asset yields rose slightly by ten basis points to 7%, thanks to the disbursement to some of the higher rates loans.
However, it was offset by the slight increase in the cost of fund to 3.5% due to the tighter liquidity, which caused the increase in some of the short-term tenure, one- to three-month deposit. Therefore, our NIM continued to be one of the main challenges, with our quarterly NIM stood at 3.8% and NIM on the last 12-month basis at 3.7%. I would say that even though the lending margin has been compressed a little bit, the overall target is on the total returns on risk-weighted assets. Therefore, we expect the fee income to grow faster to offset with some of the shortfall in the interest income. Looking now at the credit book in more detail, in terms of the quarterly expansions, I would say that the corporate and the retail side are quite balanced at 7% versus quarter one.
However, if you look at the year-on-year basis, the retail book has been growing at quite faster rates at 27% compared to the corporate book at 15%, also reflecting some success from our diversification strategy. In terms of tenure, our short-term loans have been growing slightly faster, which will allow us to reprice more quickly once the rates are picked up. Looking into more details in terms of the asset diversifications. On the corporate side, on the left-hand side, there are a few sectors that we managed to grow at quite a fast pace. Number one, constructions, growing at 40% year-on-year, materials 14%, and utilities 53% year-on-year, which are faster than our real estate books, which have been growing at 13% versus last year.
The total lending to the real estate sector currently accounts for 59% of the total corporate books, slightly down versus the previous quarter, showing the continuous effort of our diversification strategy. On the right-hand side, we look at the retail books, which have been growing at 27% strongly year-on-year. The margin lending business has achieved quite robust growth at 37%. Thanks to the risk that we flow into the equity markets. Plus, if you look at the others portion of the book, which are mainly our personal and installment loans, together with the lending to the SMEs and merchants, also achieved a phenomenal growth year-on-year of 76% year-on-year and 16% versus quarter one. This book, I would say, is carrying a higher margin, which will help us to support the asset yields in the long run. Looking now at some details on the real estate value chains.
In general, the market in the north and in Hanoi continue to be busy with a very strong supply and high absorption rates. Whereas, on the other hand, the market in Ho Chi Minh City continues to be relatively muted compared to the north, with the number of new high-rise supplies only less than 2,000 for the first half. In terms of the new disbursements, we reached almost VND 30 trillion for the second quarter, a robust result with some room for further improvement once the market in the south really recovers. Looking now at the deposit side. Our total deposits have grown strongly at 90% on a year-on-year basis, with our total CASA, including our total in balance, growing at 25%, faster than the growth of our term deposit, which was at 15%. Therefore, this has improved our CASA ratio to 41% for the quarter.
For the retail business, in particular, the CASA, including our total in balance, has been growing at a strong pace of 30% year-on-year, reflecting our success in the Auto Earning 2.0, together with the other merchant solutions. I would say that the Auto Earning solutions is now one of the best in class in the industry. We allow the customer to. Earn the high yield of up to 4.4% for some group of customers, while at the same time allowing them to have the true level of flexibility 24/7. This combination is very hard for the competitor to replicate. As such, the total number of customers using the product are now reaching 3.8 million, up 35% compared to the previous quarter. Looking at our NFI, the total fee income, as Jin mentioned, has been flattish year-on-year as we compare against a very strong performance of the second quarter last year.
Looking at the compositions, firstly, I would say the investment banking activity continues to play a key role in our fee income business, generating VND 1.4 trillion of revenue, which was up strongly by 36% year-over-year, mainly due to the bond underwriting business, as I mentioned, in the wealth banking performance. On bank insurance, the new distribution agreements also yield some good momentum as we see an 11% up versus the second quarter and 80% up versus the first half of last year. This is quite an encouraging result. As Techcombank Live is being licensed by the Ministry of Finance, plus our increased stake in the general insurance company, I think Techcombank has been in a very strong position to expand our insurance business in the coming years.
On FX, our total income on FX also grew strongly at 65% versus last year, mainly thanks to the retail business from some of the tailored solutions on travel, studying overseas, and also relocations. On LC and cash settlement business, the decline year-on-year was mainly due to the regulatory change, as I mentioned, impacting the LCU pass business. Our core business on trade and cash shows a very good momentum over time. Similarly, on cards, as we mentioned in the previous quarter, there was a cutting change on the revenue recognition side, which explained for the declines year-on-year. However, our total card spending transaction volume, I would say, is still at the top bank in the markets. Overall, I would say this is a very strong quarter in terms of fee income, with accelerations in our number of the core business, like investment banking, bank insurance, and FX.
We are also very strong versus peer in this front. Looking now at the cost side, our total OPEX is slightly down year-on-year and slightly up compared to the first quarter, driven by staff costs as we made the annual adjustment to our salary base in quarter two. Our marketing expense also ramped up in the second quarter, which allowed us to achieve some of the breakthrough results in the branding activities. Therefore, we are ranked at number one in terms of brand equity index and number three in terms of NPS. We also deployed some investment into our physical network to achieve what we call fully purposed branches. Which is the first one in the country doing so, also showing our further commitment toward sustainability. Overall, I would say the cost management of the bank remained to be really strong, at core income ratio at 30%.
One of the highest levels in the industry. Turning now into asset quality. The credit costs can continue to decline to 0.6%. And 0.4% net recoveries, showing the higher quality of our asset base. In terms of NPL, though we see a slight increase of 1.2%-1.3% for this quarter, but as Jens mentioned, it was mainly due to a couple of specific CIC cases on the corporate side, with our organic NPL staying at 1% mark, which is relatively stable compared to the previous quarter. The NPL on the mortgage book also stabilized at 2.2%. And coverage ratio at 106%, which is also one of the strongest levels versus peers. This slide provides some additional information on the credit costs. As you can see on the left-hand side, our normal credit costs further declined compared to the second quarter, thanks to some of the positive results from the recoveries.
Our bucket two goes down compared to the previous quarter as the mortgage book stabilized and the NPL increased, as we mentioned, due to the CIC cases on the corporate side. Regarding capital and liquidity, our CAR went down slightly to 15%, but still at a very comfortable level. In terms of the funding positions, the majority of our funding mix is still coming from customer deposits of 77%. Therefore, our overall bank's risk profile remains relatively strong compared to peers. This slide, as usual, provides comparisons of Techcombank versus the industry. As you can see, we are better than the industry average in almost all key metrics. On the next slide, we are looking at the performance of the transaction banking. As you can see, our retail digital transaction volume continued to be up very strongly year-on-year at 28%.
This supports us to defend our number one positions in terms of transaction volume going through NAPAS, which also is a reflection of the high level of engagement with our customer. Also, on the chart on the right-hand side, we are looking at the percentage of customers using Techcombank as the main transaction bank within the first month after the onboard. We have seen a healthy trend up since 2023, currently at 32%, 31%, which also shows the increased level of engagement with our customer. Looking now at the forward-looking guidance. As you recall, in the previous quarter, Alex presented the two scenarios, the optimistic and the pessimistic case. However, with the recent developments in the U.S. trade deals, I am building a more favorable outcome for Vietnam. Together with the strong set of second quarter data, we believe that the worst-case scenario is no longer likely.
Therefore, we forecast the full-year GDP to be around 7.7%. To support this growth, there are a few key drivers. Number one, we expect exports to continue to be strong, driven by the resilient external demands from the key sectors where we are strong at. Secondly, we believe that FDI will still remain as a cornerstone with the support from governments on the growth agenda of the high-tech industry like AI and semiconductor, plus the infrastructure and logistics projects on airports, traffic routes, and industrial parks. Additionally, I believe that the country is also benefiting from the competitive energy price and labor costs in comparison to the neighboring country. To complement that, the increased public spending, plus the recovering real estate market, also helps boost the domestic consumption. With this optimistic outlook, we believe that the country is positioned for a sustained strong growth period that is coming.
We are ready and also excited to capture some of the opportunities that are coming. Let's look at the forward guidance for financials. CASA ratio is expected to further improve with the continuous efforts in Auto Earning 2.0 and our merchant offering. Fee income growth is also expected to accelerate further into the second half of the year with our core business like investment banking, bancassurance, and FX. On the lending side, however, we anticipate that the level of competition continues to be strong. Hence, our increased income and increased margins will remain under pressure, with our NIM probably hovering slightly below 4%, toward 3.7%-3.8%. Other areas are still in line with the previous guidance, and therefore, we are quite confident that our ability to deliver the full-year guidance of VND 31.5 trillion. Last but not least, let's take a look at the performance of our share price.
On a year-to-date basis, our stock has gone up by almost 40% on a very high volume trading sessions, outperforming the index and our peers. I would say this is a reflection of the bullish view of investors on a few fronts. Number one is the strong quarter one result with the management's commitment to deliver the full-year guidance despite the volatility of the tariff. Secondly, it's probably the IPO of our securities company. Thirdly, probably the potential of our ecosystem plays. Last but not least, I would say Techcombank is positioned as the leading private bank in the area where the government has very strong support for the private sector to be a key growth engine for the economy. Therefore, there are a lot of advantages for us in the coming periods.
With that, I would like to conclude our financial presentation here and hand over to the operator for the Q&A session.
Thank you, Jens and Ethan. We'll now begin the Q&A session. Two weeks ago, we had a very successful Techcombank Investment Summit where over 700 domestic and international participants attended in Hanoi. As a result, we received many questions between the conclusion of that event and yesterday when our financial statements were released, in addition to the ones this morning and during management's presentation. As a result, we're going to group and merge similar questions as much as possible to make it easier for investors and analysts to follow along. The IR team will follow up after this AP for any questions that we are not able to cover today due to time constraints. To begin, the first question will be for Jens on tariffs.
What is your view of the 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, and what are the implications for Techcombank and the Vietnam economy given the developments between the April 1st announcement and the 90-day period that was recently up?
Thanks. I think that's a very good question. To a certain extent, I think the tariffs are still in flux, right? Yes, we have an announcement that all tariffs of import goods from the U.S. would be brought down to zero, and then exports to the U.S. would be 20% taxed, and there would be a 40% on transshipments. I think there are still probably further discussions going on, so we should assume that this is probably kind of rather the worst case. It could be well likely that these numbers are actually still going down, and maybe not on the transshipment, but on the regular side.
If that would be true, and again, we still need to see what's happening until the 1st of August, then that would actually leave Vietnam in a pretty good position because ultimately, it's about the relative positioning vis-à-vis some of the other countries who produce similar products for consumption in the U.S., be it in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia to have some of our ASEAN neighbors. Of course, there are also other areas like Mexico, Bangladesh, and whatever. Overall, in terms of relative terms, I think this is one of the lowest tariff regimes, which would mean that on a relative basis, it strengthens the position of Vietnam, which would be especially important for areas like footwear, electronics, wood furnitures, some of the key areas which make up around 70% of the total exports to the U.S. I think that's good.
I think it's also good for FDIs because if you're really having tariffs on transshipment, what it would mean is that probably even more production facilities would need to be onshore in order to increase the local content. That means actually more direct investments to deepen the value chain which is produced here in Vietnam, again, which should have a positive impact on the overall situation. Now, the problem is still it's a little bit unclear what really means transshipment. Transshipment can have a relatively broad definition, right? It can really be defined as. Kind of products with not enough local content, or it could really be areas which just mean they are landed. On a cave; they are not even unloaded, and then they are just basically rerouted from a Vietnamese harbor to somewhere else in the world.
Depending on that definition, of course, a different amount of goods would be falling under a 40% tariff regime. Again, right now, if we really take the real definition or the purest definition of transshipment, that actually is only a relatively small number. However, we should also be clear that overall, we are going into a world where, on average, probably tariffs for all the products going to the U.S. are roughly 20%, a number which has not been seen since 1910, right? Ever since, the number went down maybe 1% or 2%, now it is 18% up. There will be a real pressure on any products which will be consumed in the U.S. That means, I think, there will be some implications on the demand in the U.S.
As prices are going up, that, again, will have implications on the exporting countries to the U.S., of which Vietnam is one of the biggest. Again, I think it is all playing out, but as Ethan has said, we would still assume it is a 7.7% GDP growth for the country, which is mostly due to the fact that we went out of the conservative or worst-case scenario into a much more optimistic scenario, which means overall reflects actually our perspective. Now, what we are seeing is we will still be somewhat conservative. We will look from the risk management still into those which have a very strong exposure to the U.S. in one or the other way. I think we will also look for hedging solutions for our customers because I do not believe that FX volatility will be coming down.
I still think there is, as we have seen, quite some volatility in the markets. The Fed's policies regarding interest rates are still uncertain, and there are variations there. The overall demand development across the world is a little bit unclear. That will all have implications on exchange rates. Therefore, hedging interest rates and FX are probably very important elements for our customers. Again, that for us is a business opportunity. Overall, I think the outcome compared to three months ago is probably rather positive.
Thanks, Jens. Since you mentioned FX, I think that is a good segue into the next question for Ethan. Recently, there have been some volatility in the U.S. dollar-VND rates. How does that affect your view on interest rates and liquidity in the system for the remaining months? This goes to Ethan.
Y eah, sure. Thanks for the questions.
I think on FX, we have seen the rise in FX into this year, even though the DXY has gone down. I think there are several reasons. I think number one. The. Domestic demand for USD still remains strong from the importers. For overseas remittance and also for foreign debt payments remain strong. I think secondly, which I think also more fundamentally, is the interest rate differential between the two currencies still remains to be not so supportive for VND, as the US rate is continuing to be at the 4%-4.5% versus the Libor rate, which is around 3.5%-5%. For some period of time, the gap is even negative, which has rarely happened historically as USD rate has already been in the 2% range. Therefore, it is natural and also understandable to see the capital flow towards USD.
I think also thirdly, the fact that the Fed has been delaying on their rate cut decisions is also not helpful for Vietnam and also for emerging markets in general. Looking forward into the second half, I would say that I hope that the pressure to be eased into year-end. Number one, we expect that the Fed will need to cut rates once or twice this year and also more into the next year. As they are running a very high leverage on debt-to-GDP ratio, I think the high rate is also not very sustainable for them. Once that happens, we believe that the USD will be weakened and the tension will be less. Secondly, with the more favorable outcome from the trade negotiations, and if the FDI and export continue to be strong, that would help rebalance the USD on the supply side.
Once the Fed cut rate, I believe that the interbank rates in the domestic market will also come down a little bit. On the customer deposit rates and lending rates side, we anticipate that in the 6-12 month periods might slightly go up as the economy recovers further and also more demand for credits, but not by a lot, maybe around 20-30 basis points and probably below the pre-COVID-19 level.
Thanks. Next question is for Jens on real estate. How are housing prices evolving in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and what are the implications for mortgage lending and financial stability?
Thanks for the question. Of course, that is one of the key questions people right now are looking at.
I think it is fair to say housing prices are still on the rise, and they are on the rise in both markets. They are on the rise in Ho Chi Minh City, probably even more so than in Hanoi, which have seen a major increase over the last 12 months. Again, in Ho Chi Minh City, it is mostly because of supply, right? We only have, as Ethan has said, only 2,000 new units in the first half, which is much, much lower than what it used to be. There will probably be more units released in the second half, but again, it is still a far cry away from what the city can really absorb. In Hanoi, the fact that actually still the prices are going up despite the rally for the last 12 months actually just also shows there is still a lot of demand for housing.
Most of that actually happens right now in the luxury segment. As we have said two weeks ago at the summit, there is, of course, a major demand for affordable housing for much more units which are not as expensive as what we are currently seeing. For the next 10 years, I think that is still probably one of the most important markets and one of the most important asset classes Vietnamese are investing in. From a wealth management perspective, that clearly is an area. However, we also see that prices are already a little bit on the high side. If you look at the rental yields and you compare this to other Asian markets, we are probably right now much closer to cities like Singapore or Hong Kong than what you would have in Bangkok, for example.
That means that the prices already are very, very high, not just kind of on a pure comparison to the average income, but just also as an investment and class. Everything now comes from the appreciation. That, of course, is still driven by the fact that there are so limited asset classes in Vietnam where people can invest in. I think that because people are asking for financial stability, and as we will see more asset classes coming up and as more and more products become available, hopefully, that will also then take some of the funds and basically move them into other asset classes, which will reduce a little bit the pressure. Anyway, we still believe in, as I said, a very important asset class for wealth management. We are, as one of the major players, actually still very much involved in it, and we will create more solutions.
Again, we also need to find much more integrated solutions also for other products, not just mortgages, but even when it comes to asset management and when it comes to probably life insurance. Even if you think about how you might actually liquidate that house over time. Again, from our side, it is one of the most relevant asset classes, and we will continue to invest in that area and be relevant in that area.
Thanks. Next question is for Ethan. Could you provide us an update on the bond market in the first half and how it impacted Techcom Securities' performance?
Y eah, sure.
In the second quarter, we observed a very strong bond issuance volume at, I would say, more than, close to VND 200 trillion in the second quarter, which is making the first half of 2025 to be one of the best over the past two, three years. On a year-on-year basis, this volume is up 50% compared to the prior year, showing that the market has been in recovery mode. In terms of the sector, the banking sector continued to dominate at 70% of the total volume, with the remaining 30%. I think TCBS also plays a very strong role in that market as we capture 45% of the total market share of the non-bank volume. That definitely has positively contributed to the bottom-line result, with total revenue from the distributions and underwriting business reaching VND 1.5 trillion, which is almost 20% up year-on-year.
We believe that the bond market will continue to be warmer in the coming quarters with more demand for credit.
Thanks. The next question is for Jens. Today, Vingroup, Vinhomes, and Masan make up a large part of the existing corporate ecosystem of issuers for TCBS. In the next three to five years, does TCBS have plans to expand this set of customers and bring on other large customers?
Yeah, thanks for the question. Again, probably it's not for lack of our trying that we don't have more issuers. I think the logic will be that there must be more issuers going forward. We had discussed that at the summit two weeks ago, where we just put a couple of numbers out. The pure capital formation for the next five years for Vietnam needs to be $1.1 trillion.
Just the upgrading of the economic model, which means investments into new kinds of sectors and high-growth sectors, infrastructure investments to be more integrated into the global supply chain, and ESG investments for sustainability, this amount alone is around $400 billion over the next five years. The bank balance sheets cannot hold that, so it needs to be financed through capital markets, through other areas. Of course, you could do syndicated loans and other areas, but I think the capital markets will play a very, very important role. That means that companies who will invest in that area, who want to invest in that area, need to find different ways to access these pools of capital. The areas we're seeing are infrastructure, energy, basically electric and vehicles, and the retail area, as GDP growth will lead to much more domestic consumption. There is banking, digital finance, the industrial park.
All areas of the economy will see actually these kinds of investment needs. Therefore, we are out there, we're discussing with our large customers about their plans, what they are intending to do, and then also seeing how we can help them in ways not just bank funding, but as I said, also other products on the capital market side. To make it very short and clear, we need more capital market products. We need more bond issuances. It's really a question of how to make sure that we help our clients to identify the right instruments and then help them also access these capital markets over time.
Thanks. Another question for Jens. Could you explain what you meant at the Techcombank Investment Summit when you said that within the TCBS ecosystem, Masterise will develop critical physical assets and national infrastructure?
What kind of physical assets or what kind of infrastructure, as these terms are rather broad? Could you also—
sure. I'm sorry. Sure. Let me maybe explain a little bit more what I meant with that. As we said in that summit, we are a financial services company. We're a financial services group, so we are providing financing. At the same point in time, we're really taking it very seriously that we want to support Vietnam as a nation to really move forward and get to this new growth trajectory. Therefore, we might actually go and, within that ecosystem, work with other partners to, A, provide kind of digital infrastructure, especially when it comes to financial assets, to payments, to trading capital markets, etc.
In some cases, when the physical assets are actually not there or somebody is not developing it in the right amount, we're actually helping to work with companies to actually see if they can create that capability and start developing that infrastructure. What could that infrastructure be, right? It could be airports, right? If there's demand or necessity for building more airports to really get deeper integrated into the supply chain, that means not just, let's say, maybe an airport, but really kind of multimodal hubs where you have connectivity between different logistics companies, warehousing, etc. That is an area where we don't think so much is existing at this point in time, and we think we need actually more of that, especially also in the north, where we will have all that proximity also to China.
If FDIs are coming over to basically set up more production capacity here, do we have the infrastructure? Do we have the industrial parks and all of that to build that capacity and actually have this higher value added in the economy? If nobody is actually taking it up, there could be a company like Masterise really working on this and building that infrastructure, supporting that infrastructure. At the same point in time, we talked about affordable housing. A lot of the housing which we're having right now in this part of the world is actually at the high end because land banks are very restricted. The moment you go a little bit outside of the core area, travel times become very, very high, and it's very hard for people to just commute.
As infrastructure is built up, more highways, more railways, you will see that actually there will be new developments outside. Or in a further distance to the city center, where suddenly affordable housing and developments of larger and smart cities and suburban cities can actually come up. Now, if nobody is focusing on that, then I think Masterise, in its capability to develop these kinds of residential areas, they could take over some of the responsibility and basically develop economic projects, economically viable projects, to basically build that kind of infrastructure. I think it will be mostly around really logistics. It will be very much around still real estate. It will all need to make economic sense. If there are other companies who are better positioned and situated, we will also work with these companies.
If, let's say, they're not taking it up and Masterise is in a good position, then we will actually work there. In any case, it always needs to make economic sense for us. We will always look in terms of our risk appetite, return on risk-weighted assets, concentration risk, etc., to basically seeing, are we doing it or are we just a ranger of capital? We will decide from case to case how we want to engage with these partners.
Thanks, Jens. Following up on Masterise also. Masterise is known for high-end and luxury properties, but you mentioned that it will expand and provide affordable housing. The question is, will that dilute the brand value of Masterise, and will you still get the same type of ROA and attractive returns that Techcombank has traditionally seen in its lending business?
Of course, that's probably—the first one probably is something you would need to ask Masterise. To be very clear, there are enough examples in the world where you see that different real estate developers are basically having different brands. Just because you have a top-end brand, you might actually also have brands which are addressing a different customer segment, so the mass affluent. You have this in the Philippines and with Ayala Land, and you have PUKSA in Thailand. There are enough examples surrounding us where you have different branded concepts for different market segments. I think, will you probably need to launch a different brand? I think very much so. The question will be, is there credibility around the group of Masterise that they are able to launch branded properties for a certain subsegment? I think that is probably what we're looking at first and foremost.
When it comes to the financing, as I said, we will make our assessment. In my experience, and when we look into the numbers, yes, maybe interest rates might actually be the same on kind of the credit yields. Of course, if it's in a somewhat lower segment, NPLs might be a little bit higher. Usually, it's okay because it's getting mitigated against the collaterals. But it would still mean that probably your operating costs because of smaller units and all of that is higher. However, usually, the customer lifetime value is actually higher. The reason is that in a lot of the affluent segments, people are paying back relatively early, whereas in the lower, more affordable housing segments, the total duration of the loan is actually longer.
That means that all your acquisition costs and all of that are getting kind of amortized over a longer period of time, which brings actually up the return on risk-weighted assets. There are pros and cons, but when we looked at it, it's relatively clear that this is still a very, very attractive segment which will meet our RWA hurdles and our return on asset hurdles. However, we will see how quickly that will develop because, as I said, the land banks in very close vicinity of the big, big cities are very well exhausted. You need to go outside. If you need to go outside, you need to have the connectivity first. Then you build the kind of affordable housing areas, the suburban areas outside. First, we would need to see how that infrastructure develops. Then you will see that this one is coming up.
We look at it as part of the next five years, ten-year strategy. Again, I think it will be step by step. What is very clear from a secular trend perspective, it is a very, very attractive opportunity, and it's something we want to tap in, and I think we can actually tap in.
Thanks, Jens. Switching to digital payments, what is the bank's ambition and plan with regard to being part owner of the establishment of MobiFone Digital Payment?
I think probably that gets a little bit closer to the discussion we had on digital infrastructure. We believe if we really want to be a digital economy, digital payments, digital real-time payments are very, very important.
In order to really be very well connected and have this, I think you need to probably have a technology stack which is a little bit different than what is currently provided in this country. It would need actually from account-to-account payment services, from cross-border payments, from also anti-money laundering, and when it comes to security, etc., it probably would need a somewhat different technology stack and a different kind of services, value-added services on top of it, as well as data capabilities, AI capabilities. When we discussed with MobiFone, we basically thought that there is an opportunity in the market. We set up that company. There we are only an 11% shareholder and One Mount Group, where I said they could actually participate as kind of a conduit for the technology piece, for the digital infrastructure. They are actually holding a much larger piece.
The idea is really to create something together where we are giving the inputs from a user perspective, and then MobiFone and One Mount Group as technology companies will basically come in and provide that physical infrastructure to create the digital infrastructure to really create this account-to-account, pay-to-bank and payment, real-time payment infrastructure, also create a national billing hub for all billing services, etc., which would just lower the total cost of doing business in the country and providing additional service to all the financial intermediaries, but also create probably more security. As we have a much better understanding of the payment flows in that country, something I think the government is also very interested in.
Thanks. The next question is for Ethan. TCBS's five-year plan ending this year, the securities firm had said that it planned to reach 5 million customers, each using five products, VND 5 trillion in profit, and $5 billion in capitalization. Could you update on which of these KPIs TCBS has achieved and which goals turned out to be more difficult than expected? Also comment on the core values that TCBS has created in the last five years.
Yeah, sure. Thanks for the questions. Firstly, in terms of the target for TCBS that I can share. I think number one, in terms of the product per active customer, I think we have achieved five products per active customer, given that's the number of products that we have been rolling out in the recent years.
Secondly, with the target of VND 5 trillion profit, I believe that is achievable within this year as we are currently at VND 3 trillion for the first half, which accounts for 53% of our full-year guidance. We are confident of this target. In terms of the number of customers of the target of 5 million, we are not there yet, but I believe that with the upcoming plans to develop the new customer segments and the products, we will achieve this goal soon. Lastly, on the $5 billion market cap, this is definitely still a goal that we are aiming at.
On the second part of the questions on the core value of TCBS, I would say that unlike a traditional local securities company, I think TCBS possesses some unique quality, which is the combination of very strong culture and governance on the bank side, together with the agile and modern way of working like a tech industry, which gives TCBS a very unique competitive advantage. Together with our focus on wealth solutions and also tech, TCBS has been the pioneer to roll out some of the differentiated and innovative wealth solutions for our customers over the past years.
Thanks. Next question is for Jens. Could you share the development strategy for TCBS in the next five years?
Sure. I think as we shared, right, what are the big changes right now? First one is we need to find a different way to mobilize. Funds through the capital markets.
I think we probably need to build up our IB advisory capacity over and above what we currently have. I think we're very good in the debt markets, but I think there will also be a massive need for equity advisory as funds need to be raised on the equity side in order to facilitate some of the debt financing. I think some of that is then a question of how exactly do you structure it. Is it just plain equity, plain debt, or are there more sophisticated instruments? IB advisory clearly is an area we need to expand. There's wealth. I think a lot of the wealth offerings which we have already in TCBS is probably one of the best product providers in this area. We just need much more of that, right?
I think as new asset classes are created from digital, but also as regulation maybe allows for some other asset classes, TCBS will just develop these products, offer them to our customers, and also provide the trading platform to avail these products. All of that they will do on what they have done in the past, just basically using technology, data, and creating very, very scalable platforms and services which will basically be allowing them to hyper-personalize products as well as advice because everything will be on the back of agents and agentic AI. That will basically scale up what we already have in the past. From that perspective, I think some of that is more of what we had, at least the winning formula.
I think really taking it to other product areas, to other investor types, and as and when this market really opens up and also the regulator allows probably more innovative products going forward.
As our credit will expand by 30% year over year. On a year-to-date, you recall in the presentations, our loans book increased by 12% on a year-to-date basis with some accelerations in the second quarter. With that, our risk-weighted asset will, and therefore, on the retail earnings side, has not been catching up yet, which needs some more time to build up. Therefore, our CAR ratio going down slightly by 30 basis points. However, even at 15%, CAR is still a very strong and comfortable level.
Forward-looking-wise, if we look at the, even if we pay the dividends of VND 1,000 per share, I would say that our CAR ratio is still comfortably above 14%, which is in the 14-15% forward guidance that we have provided.
Okay. Thanks. The next question is for Jens. When does the bank expect to pay cash dividends?
We announced at the AGM that we would pay cash dividends this year. It needs to be done within six months after the AGM approval. The latest would be around October. As usual, we are very, very much kind of considerate on all the different surrounding kind of restrictions. There is also an ESOP program which needs to be implemented, etc. We also need to look at are there any unforeseeable events coming. The latest is in October.
If we see very clearly that we want to do it earlier, we will probably do it earlier. As I said, October is the latest.
Okay. Thanks. Ethan, could you explain the slight uptick in the bank's NPL ratio in the second quarter? Were there any particular segments that contributed to this movement?
Yeah, sure. In terms of NPL going up this quarter, it was mainly driven by some of the specific cases on the corporate side due to CIC NPL as they have NPL with other banks. These clients have been facing with some adverse impact from the market volatility with the rising material price and FX fluctuations. We have been working with them to manage the exposure to a more manageable level. Overall, I do not think this is a systematic issue, just a couple of very specific cases.
Therefore, our organic NPL is still staying at a relatively stable level of 1%. On the credit cost side, we are still going down on a quarter-on-quarter basis to 0.6%. and 0.4% net recovery. Overall, I would say that the overall bank asset quality is still at a very satisfactory level.
Next question to Jens. We just have a couple more questions. How would investing in the life insurance impact the bank's consolidated financial position? Could you update us on the progress of the life insurance business?
Sure. I think in the short term, you would not see a huge impact on the consolidated position. The capital which we would invest actually would be consolidated. I think the expenses in the beginning are relatively low as we start building up the business. We looked into the financials in quite some detail. I think we can actually manage that pretty well.
It is completely within the range of the financial capacity of the bank. Now, in terms of where are we on the progress, we have gotten the approval from the Ministry of Finance. We actually right now have the license. We will probably inform in very due time about it. Now we are working on basically getting all the other approvals in place, especially when it comes to the product approval. We communicated that we actually want to be somewhere in market around quarter four, which is actually still true. We are working right now on setting up all the operations. We believe, as we had said beforehand, that this is actually a really critical element for our overall strategy. We believe that health is one of the most important concerns of people that they live.
Kind of the right life and hopefully a very long life, and that they are protecting themselves and their closest and dearest to their heart against any mishappenings. From that perspective, I think creating something which is really unique, which integrates, which uses all our capabilities which we have built when it comes to product innovation, technology, data, and really integrate an offering is probably something which could really make a difference in the market. Again, we are very much on track. Quarter four should be first kind of where we will test systems and all of that. That's probably when we will really start getting real market results and market feedback, and then we will scale from there.
Yeah. Second to last one is Techcombank has been announced that it will be included in the Vietnam Sustainability Index. Could you comment on the importance of this?
Yeah, I think that is actually something we have worked for quite some time now in order to be included. Again, we made this beforehand. We think sustainability is really important, and we really want to participate in that commitment which also the government has made to become neutral by 2050. All our efforts and also helping our customers to create green financing capabilities, being able to advise them. I think that's all very, very important for us. I think the VNSI is, or inclusion to the Vietnam Sustainability Index is probably just reflection of the external recognition of that commitment. We are now included together with 19 others to form this in VNSI 20.
Again, I think just, as I said, reflects a lot of the work we've done and the commitments we've made when it comes to green financing, but also our contribution when it comes to creating green bond frameworks, helping the capital markets to create the right legal frames to be open to these kinds of financing. Again, for us, it's a very important recognition and also an incentive to just continue to go down that path. As I said, it's not just that we think we need to tick a box. I think it's really deep in our commitment that if we want to create and get Vietnam on a completely different growth trajectory, it needs to be done in a sustainable manner.
The last question. Jens , what benefit does Techcombank receive from accepting to develop the national crypto trading platform? Other than collecting fee income, are there plans to mobilize or leverage this source of funding? Lastly, how will this platform entice traders to move from the foreign ones into the domestic one?
That's a very good question. First, let's talk about this crypto and crypto trading platform. I mean, trading is just one piece of the whole chain, right? I mean, it comes from basically. When it comes to tokenization of assets, then you need to trade them, then you need to provide custodial services, then you get off-ramp and on-ramp in terms of currencies. There are a lot of different areas where we intend to participate and assuming our financial models actually give the right answers, and we can really make money in these areas. Therefore, the pure exchange is one.
We believe, especially when it comes to the mobilization of funding and tokenization of real-world assets, it is probably one of the key areas. As I said, if we need to find financing for all these infrastructure projects and all of that, digital assets might actually be a good answer. We know that around $120 billion are probably in cryptocurrencies overseas, and being able to bring that home and finding a home here is probably important. Now, why would people basically come and put the money here and not overseas? I think, to be fair, there is still right now even a lot of work done in order to put a little bit more light on some of the gray areas. I think we have seen people who have invested where exchanges were basically, and they went bust, and people lost a lot of their money.
Therefore, I think there is the question, are you trusting and who are you trusting in these exchanges? Are you trusting someone who is closely regulated and where you know the parties who are organizing it? What is the kind of backing behind it and all of this? Therefore, I think in general, I believe that banks or trusted financial intermediaries will play a larger role in it, especially right now as we see more regulation coming up for stablecoins, etc. I think we are intending to compete with such big names, assuming we get a license, because there is still a license-granting process in it.
We will really try to provide exactly the same services and the same security protocols, etc., like what you would get overseas, but with the confirmation that this is basically done with entities and in a regulatory regime you can probably understand much, much better than where currencies or some of these assets are traded as of today. Again, from our perspective, it is a very important asset class. We know that Vietnamese like this asset class. I think we want to provide it as an important element in terms of wealth formation and wealth accumulation. We just believe it is a good opportunity, and we want to participate in it. Again, more than just the platform. The trading platform is just one small piece of the overall puzzle.
Sorry, Jens. There is one more question where a lot of people are asking. The bank only needs to, with the strong PBT in the first half, the bank only needs to have two quarters of relatively flat VND 8 trillion per quarter to achieve the full-year guidance of VND 31.5 trillion. What's holding you back from having the traditional back half increase? And how do you see the balance of upside opportunities versus downside risk for the rest of the year?
Good question. I think to a certain extent, you should. Those who are joining for more than one quarter and with us now for a longer period of time, you know that our kind of approach is we are pretty fact-based, and we rather prefer to basically make predictions in terms of what we can see and control, and then being maybe too optimistic, and then usually numbers are coming in a little bit higher.
Here, the real point is, I think we are seeing at this point in time quite some tendency in the market on the NIM side, which are very different than what we had expected. I think Ethan also alluded to it when he said that we probably, in the beginning of the year, we said interest or NIM should be above 4%. Now we are basically saying probably it's below the 4% mark and slightly. The reason is, again, that there is so much competition out there and also direction-setting by the government and actions by some market participants, which give us a little bit of a pause to say, how are we able to get acceptable growth at the right margins?
And again, we are not.
We probably could really drive up kind of the interest income, but we would probably do so by just really book a lot of assets at much lower NIM, which would mean that probably our return on assets and some of our efficiency ratios would be coming down. We're not quite sure if that is the best use of capital, and that's really what shareholders want. We're observing it very closely. Ultimately, what we need to weigh off is additional growth on the balance sheet side with the price which we can earn for these assets. Therefore, I think the NIM side is still somewhat under pressure. We need to see where we are on the fee income. There are actually what we have. There's still the bond market. There is stock market. There's things we can do on the insurance side, etc.
Again, I think VND 8 trillion is not a small number. As we said, it's actually the highest quarter PBT we ever had at VND 7.9 trillion. You can rest assured we're trying our very best. Right now, being completely going overboard and saying this will all be going up and increased, I think we're seeing some market dynamics which, as I said, give us a little bit of a pause.
Thank you. This concludes the second quarter 2025 financial results presentation. The presentation and replay link will be posted on the IR section of the website soon. Please contact the IR team for any additional questions. We look forward to speaking to you again in three months.