Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantinos, your conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the NLB Group conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the second quarter 2024 and first half 2024 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Blaž Brodnjak, CEO, Mr. Andreas Burkhardt , CRO, and Mr. Archibald Kremser, CFO. Mr. Brodnjak, you may now proceed.
Thank you very much, and welcome, everyone. Good afternoon to the regular performance call. Let me first direct your attention to the disclaimer, regular disclaimer, and then move to actually what we believe has been another very strong quarter, delivering as per all dimensions of what we have been guiding for. What is especially encouraging is that we have been growing the business. So of course, there have been always questions about the sensitivity on, you know, upon the net interest income. But of course, we have been introducing various measures, among which one of the most important ones have been actual growth of business.
So in both retail and corporate, we've seen a very solid mid-single-digit growth in the first half of the year, and that's especially encouraging, because it is of course signaling the economic activity in the region, and on the other side the strength of the households of the region. At the same time, we have successfully issued a couple of notes, by that, of course, delivering as per the MREL requirements on one side and on the other side, strengthening the capital base as well, which is, of course, allowing for further growth, both in organic terms and in M&A terms.
We have in May communicated the new strategy, addressing the upcoming midterm period until the end of 2030, which was immediately more or less followed by some attempts, obviously, to grow the business also inorganically. So on top of a very strong first half through the organic growth, we have been in the midst of closing activities of acquisition of Summit Leasing. We expect to actually close the transaction in mid-September. I'm going to talk about this a bit later on in a bit more detail, and we published the voluntary takeover offer for the Addiko Group, which has been still pending, and acceptance period has been actually, of course, expiring in the middle of August. In this respect, we have also been following the guidance when it comes to the dividend payouts.
So we have, as at the general assembly in June, suggested to the general assembly, and AGM then also approved the payout of EUR 110 million, which is the first tranche, the first half of the expected payout for this year. And I mentioned before, we have been very close to actually obtaining all of the approvals. Just the ECB approval is missing for the Summit Leasing acquisition, which will of course, materially improve our position in leasing market in Slovenia, becoming the leading provider of leasing services in Slovenia, adding Croatia as a geography, and by that, actually four geographies, trying to, not trying, but actually, intensively building, the, the asset base in leasing services as well.
Main pillars of the new strategy have been, as mentioned, organic growth, which is, high single-digit organic growth, accompanied by some tactical M&A, addressing EUR 5-6 billion of assets. One of such attempts, immediate attempts, has been, of course, the pending offer for Addiko, on one side. On the other side, clear that clearly there will be other following in the upcoming years. In terms of numbers, we would want to double the business, exceeding EUR 50 billion, which we see as a critical mass for the standalone successful development of this business in the, in the midterm and long-term future.
We would like to actually increase the revenue base to exceed EUR 2 billion, and from this EUR 2 billion, ideally making also more than EUR 1 billion of net income, which would be more or less almost doubling as well from today's perspective, and by that, accreting a lot of value to our shareholders. Macro of the region has been quite favorable, so there are forecasts from various institutes regarding Slovenian growth, between 2.5%-3% this year, somehow 2-2.5% real growth next year, 2.5%-3%, depending on whom you, whom you ask, and for the region, very comparable numbers. So we've seen historical low rates of unemployment, basically full employment, which is speaking about strength of the households.
On the other hand, 2%-3% growth is also talking about pretty healthy cash flows of the corporates. There's been still a subdued demand for lending in terms of corporates, but we have been addressing this with high activity of our sales teams and, by that, also growing market shares across geographies in corporate lending as well. So overall, this is a promising environment for the upcoming midterm period that should cater for and facilitate for delivery of the strategy, and we are looking forward optimistically. By that, I would pass the word to Archibald to give you more details on actual numbers and developments.
All right. Welcome from my side. And again, it's a pleasure and an honor to present another strong quarter. You see the result is, I'd say firmly in line with what we expect, actually exceeding, and we'll come to that slightly. You see, revenues and pre-provision trends positive. Of course, we'll talk about NII and the fact that basically it has for now peaked, but here, the short comment is that we have deliberately invested a bit of tactical NII into NII stabilization. And I think most importantly, the highlight, I would say, is stronger than expected loan growth, which really shows through across the region, in particular in retail... And of course, it's part of a deliberate attempt to maintain and build market share.
We actually increased market shares in most geographies, and are really very happy about what we see as Blaž mentioned. The macro backdrop really provides for good volume and revenue growth opportunities, both in NII and fee. Cost dynamic clearly shows a bit of lags from still high inflation environment we've seen last year. We've seen numbers on the previous slide come down already. So in that sense, that is an expected tail. And let's not forget this year, we, of course, have to start showing and accruing the so-called balance sheet tax in Slovenia, which hits the cost base ballpark, as we have indicated earlier, with around about short of EUR 30 million or around that number on an annualized basis, and we accrue this now on a quarterly basis.
So that's a bit of a burden on the cost side. And, you know, subject to your taste, you show it either as cost, which we technically have to, or as a tax burden, but technically it shows up in cost, just to remind you about that. Because clearly, cost dynamic is something, well, we watch on a fundamental level, but there's also some technicalities happening here. Otherwise, ROE 19%. On a normalized basis, we are scratching 30%, so these are just phenomenal results. Of course, we had also the particularity of releasing provisions. Andreas will talk about that in more detail. So cost of risk, for the time being, negative, and which for sure is a bit unusual, but we'll come to that.
But as I said, highlight clearly strong loan growth, and we as a bank, as a group, we tend to say, operate on all cylinders these days, in all businesses, all geographies, both on the rate revenue as well as on the fee revenue side. You have heard me comment a little bit on the peak in the margin, which I think is a fair and anticipated development. So we saw rates coming down, both in EU and or in the non-EU zone, but this is testament to positive macro development. So low inflation is for sure something we all desire.
And in that sense, of course, note that the operating margin has actually slightly gone up, so the strong revenue environment that I indicated before is still even boosting the overall business margin. So in that sense, we are really, I would say, proud and happy to look at these results. And as we said, we deliberately invest a little bit from our rate revenue highs into future stabilization of NII. So we have cumulatively booked some EUR 2 billion in balance sheet measures, both on balance and off balance, roughly 50/50 as hedge, and basically just extending duration on balance sheet. And this has in essence reduced NII sensitivity by something like 25% or so.
So that's a good, sensible investment, giving up a bit of short-term revenue to stabilize midterm results. And with anticipated ECB movements, that certainly should pay off. Loan dynamics, I mentioned, that's really the highlight, I would claim. Strong business, and you see 5% year to date in retail, 4% in corporate, so that's really stellar, and we are very proud and grateful actually for our business developing in that way. We have continued to, of course, work also on the business origination in extending more fixed and higher duration assets. And of course, that is all well in line with our strategy and should feed future revenue growth.
In that sense, on the deposit side, that is a flattish development, as you see, because what we gain in retail, we lost a bit in corporates. But in corporates, we deliberately don't take part of competitive, let's say, term deposits market. So in that sense, that's a development we can live with, given our, of course, very strong liquidity position. But for sure, increased focus and attention on the liability side of the balance sheet is more and more of a priority, and we are mindful of that and working on that, both in terms of offering service and convenient access to this product, as much as also competitive deals.
In that sense, our beta is still well below, I would say, most banks. We have, as predicted, entered double digits with a small, still upward trend, but everything absolutely in margin of anticipated development. So in that sense, all solid. I have mentioned that we have reduced NI sensitivity, so we come down something like EUR 20 million in absolute terms, which, of course, serves all the right purposes. Both regulators like to see lower NI-sensitive investors asking all the time about NI sensitivity. So to manage this number down a bit, I think was the right thing, also done in the right timing.
On non-interest income, I said very good positive developments across the board. In particular, we'd like to highlight the very strong asset inflows into Skladi, our fund management universe. And you see that this engine is really roaring. So that's fantastic to watch, and of course, we'll continue to work expanding also the product range here and making access to this product line more convenient for our customers. Further, of course, we are working very intensely to extend this franchise into two other key markets outside Slovenia, that is, Serbia and North Macedonia, of course. So in that sense, good developments. We talked about cost.
Q2 was a bit cost-heavier as well, with some one-off effects, one of which was variable payments in Slovenia, in particular, on individual contracts on the back of strong 2023 results, so the payout effect's now Q2. And in that sense, a bit above trend, I would say, cost growth. And again, be mindful, we show the balance sheet tax in the cost base. On capital, not much to report. Of course, we continue to run our fortress balance sheet with strong capital ratios. We have. As you know, we have basically solidified our position with capital instrument issued earlier in the year. That was the EUR 300 million benchmark and at very reasonable rates. So the capital markets franchise is solid.
And the ratios are, of course, continuing to be strong and substantially above any regulatory threshold, which gives us the, of course, desired capacity for both dividend payments and M&A, as we have mentioned. So on the funding side, again, nothing to add, just that we also, of course, had issued EUR 500 million on the senior preferred dimension. That is all in anticipation of, of course, the upcoming integration of Summit Leasing, which will eat into our surplus that we currently show. And just to reiterate, the capital markets franchise and footprint is now really well-established, and we run our liability now on fairly competitive terms, which is also shown by the secondary market performance of our outstanding new issuances. But I pass over to Andreas-
Thank you.
on asset quality.
Thank you. Welcome also from my side. As you heard already before from Archibald, growth in all segments of loans is very good. Here you see it a little bit more differentiated, and maybe, well, to stress consumer retail with the strongest growth, that's actually desired, so we are very happy about that. Of course, you know, on the midterm, you will see a little bit higher cost and risk from that, which, however, is far overcompensated by better margins, so that's good. And if you see the comparison on the geographies, obviously no surprises, no big developments, but overall, what you can see over time is that still the markets outside Slovenia are growing a little bit faster.
The portfolio, you're used to that now, is quite diversified, so no dramas. In the second quarter, we had quite some increases in construction industry. That's to a good extent project financing. It's actually rather granular, so it's quite some cases, mostly with rather short tenors. So here, you will see some fluctuation up and down, but actually also good development. On the staging, I mean, the most striking, one of the most easily visible is obviously retail. Here you see another, well, jump in stage two in this year. This is primarily improvement in methodology.
So, we are getting more granular, we are having better weighting scales, we are having more parameters, and what you see is that we are now simply approaching much closer to European averages, which to an extent is a normalization. On the other side, as I'm saying already since, I guess now two years, with higher inflation, which we had for a while, and higher interest rates, you of course see also a little bit pressure on the retail side. This is in relative numbers, negligible, but you see in stage three that now we are very slightly increasing, so EUR 5 million. That's obviously on the portfolio negligible, but you see it. On the other side, we are still improving stage three with corporates, slightly, but still.
You see a certain move now also in this year on stage two of corporate. These are in reality 3 bigger cases, 2 of them with some delays in the project, but not in loan repayments, so 0 delay. In one case, where with a little bit weaker client, we saw some changes in the management. So 3 cases, unrelated, nothing which will repeat, by our understanding in future quarters, and all of them with 0 delay. And by the way, because I missed to say that before in retail, from the stage two cases, 72% also have 0% delays, so that's really more on the methodological side, what we're working here.
If you see NPLs in volumes and in percentages, we increased now EUR 2 million in this year, EUR 2 million in absolute terms. So what I'm saying already since a while is we are now, of course, on absolute terms, netting out. We are growing, and nevertheless, we stay stable with NPLs. From these NPLs, still approximately a third have zero delays, and the ratio is 1.5%, so I think that's very good. And also, of course, the coverage ratios stay very, very solid. On geographies, we in the meanwhile also normalized Slovenia below 50%, below our overall share in the portfolio. I think that's also natural. That was quite different a few years ago, so here we also in the meanwhile normalized.
Cost of risk, Archibald mentioned before, what we did now, in the context of the IFRS 9 review, is that also here we improved methodology, and especially, we were also looking closely on overlays, and to which extent we still feel them to be necessary and not. And that actually, in the second quarter, triggered some EUR 22 million release of provisions. And that's why, overall, at the moment, we see negative cost of risk. The other portfolio development is very solid, nothing special. Also, what we have to say is that we see still from off balance sheet quite some releases, so EUR 10 million in the first half of the year. That's well above our expectations, honestly.
So overall, of course, this gives you a very good picture by half year and release of provisions. Since in the second half of the year, we don't see any dramas coming, and overall, the development is very solid and very stable. We also now revise the outlook, you will hear later on also from Blaž, to below 20 basis points cost of risk by end of year. With this, I'm handing over back to Blaž.
Thank you, Andreas. So I was talking at the beginning on closing activities of Summit Leasing, so we actually expect to finally close the transaction in the middle of September. Then we have already more or less defined the integration roadmap, which will be finished towards the, let's say, middle of second quarter of next year, and by that, operate the leasing business in Slovenia with one entity. As said, this is becoming now a significant pillar of the banking group, covering four geographies, potentially, of course, adding geographies in the upcoming years. We have clearly expressed ambitions to further grow the business, potentially also through buyouts of either portfolios, assets, individual assets, or obviously, further entities. So this has not ended.
However, at this point of time, of course, we are focusing on closing this specific and integrate this specific opportunity. This will, of course, bring immediate funding synergies once closed, because we will replace funding that is currently coming to Summit Leasing from, from other banking group. But of course, the cost synergies are more moderate and would come then later on throughout the process. In any case, by this, we will become the leader of leasing services in, in Slovenia, and as said, of course, would want to get to this position also in a couple of other markets, predominantly Serbia and North Macedonia, and of course, now also Croatia, which is a new market for us.
And by that, we be basically round up as the only and the first financial institution operations in the entire region of former Yugoslavia. This is leading, of course, then to another opportunity, which is the opportunity, potential, potential acquisition of Addiko Group. We have published the voluntary takeover offer, and it has been amidst of more or less progress. So we believe that this offer is a transparent, equally treating all shareholders, attractive offer, which allows efficient and favorable access to all shareholders. And by that, of course, this highly complementary asset would enable NLB to further strengthen its position in the existing home markets and adding clearly also, potentially, subject to regulatory approvals, banking business in Croatia.
by which we will become also universal distributor of financial services in Croatia as well, the largest country in the region as per the GDP currently. And potentially coming, becoming then, of course, the fourth pillar of NLB Group, besides core Slovenia, a large Serbia, potentially large Croatia, and then, of course, other countries of Southeastern Europe, contributing comparable size, let's say, in terms of the pillars of the group. We have high hopes that this, of course, will crystallize, yet it is far from certain. So it is, we all know, the complexities. We are aware of the complexities. We are not the only bidder. As said, I would just reiterate, this is the transparent, equally treating all shareholders, and we believe attractively priced offer.
Of course, we cordially invite all shareholders to tender their shares into this offer until the 16th of August. By saying that, I would move to the outlook. Archibald, Andreas already mentioned the improvement in the guidance of the cost of risk. So yes, it is end of July. We've seen very, very promising developments, of course, also now into July, which is somehow giving us confidence that we believe that the cost of risk towards the end of the year actually will not adversely develop in a sense that, of course, we would see what we have been guiding for. So in this respect, we believe that this should remain below 20 basis points.
We have already generated mid-single-digit growth of loan volume, which means that, of course, it would be now not really serious, still guiding for the mid-single-digit growth. So we expect that this will now be, of course, a high single-digit growth. And this is, of course, a very good news because this means that, yes, we are addressing net interest income sensitivity also by volume growth and rerouting, of course, the liquidity reserves and optimizing the balance sheet from the, you know, very low LTDs toward a bit higher LTDs. Engaging obviously in client business, which is consumer lending, which is leasing, which is carrying, of course, prices, nominal rates that are even north of what ECB rates are, i.e., we are by that obviously compensating for the loss of liquidity reserve placements and Euribor repricings, predominantly coming from the corporates, right?
And we have improved also the return on equity guidance from around 15% to higher than 15%. Of course, we also have to understand the normalized levels. We are still operating with quite some capital buffer, which is, of course, meant to address the M&A opportunities. And as I just was reporting, we have been in an advanced stage of eventual acquisition that would exactly address this level of available buffers, and by that, more or less optimize the capital structure on one side. On the other side, we would address this capital structure by, in case of, of course, this developing further eventual AT1 issuance, by which we want to retain capital strength and at the same time retain high payout of dividends.
Both is good news, we believe, for all stakeholders, so shareholders and regulators and of course, clients of the banking group. This is all we believe, good news, very good news. And, in terms of the strategy context, we have communicated these figures, so this is the North Star aspiration for the period until end of 2030. So we really would want to become and aspire to become a sizable business group for, of course, this part of the world, reaching, tapping EUR 50 billion of size in terms of total assets. But, furthermore, focusing on profitability, retaining pretty high return on assets generally overall, of course, on the go, also return on equity, and by that, sharing this success, with, you know, significant dividend payouts on the go.
We believe that this business, if we were able to deliver the strategy, would be of course worth multiple of what it is worth today. This not only through the capital gain in terms of market capitalization, but of course also throughout through significant cash payouts in form of dividends. It is being addressed by very solid organic developments as we are reporting them, but at the same time innovative thinking, you know, and entrepreneurial spirit in sense of how we can understand the payment opportunities, you know, eventual other ancillary services. We have been talking about eventual proprietary entries into life insurance, insurance business, which we have been doing very, very well in Slovenia.
So there are a couple of strategic plays potentially at hand, and there are a couple of still unknown, uncharted eventual opportunities coming our way. So overall, organic, high single-digit growth should cater for, let's say, EUR 44 billion or EUR 45 billion, and the rest should come from the M&A in terms of assets. But as said, we would not be compromising on the quality of underwriting criteria and principles, and we were able to deliver this growth. Of course, following and sticking to these principles, profitability should be a part of, part of it as well. That much from our side, as a presentation. Thank you very much for listening, and now we are, of course, gladly responding to any questions or comments you might have. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Those participating via the webcast, you may type your question via the live feedback box below the presentation. For those participating in the questions and answer session, please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from the line of Nelly Simon with Citi. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. Thanks very much for the opportunity. I have two questions. My, my first one would be on fee income. So you had a very nice increase quarter-over-quarter, and I see it's driven by payments and cards. I'm just wondering, you know, what's really behind that and how sustainable that growth is? And my second question would just be, if you could, on the leasing, on the new leasing M&A, if you could, indicate whether the margin that you'll generate on those assets will be accretive or dilutive to group, Group NIM. Thank you.
So thanks for the question. On fee income, indeed, I actually should have mentioned, we have very successfully, let's say, revisited some of our arrangements with the providers we work. And this has shown quite visible upticks that indeed are sustainable. So we booked the uptick in Q2, accruing for all of H1, but H2 is gonna show pretty much a comparable number. So indeed, that was a structural improvement, and congrats to the colleagues that worked on that. The second question on, I think it was on further leasing M&A, if I understood the question.
Yes, on the new leasing acquisition, whether the NII that you'll give-
Uh, the, the-
The margin on that.
The Summit Leasing.
Summit Leasing
So Summit Leasing, of course, Summit Leasing, of course, as we call it technically a bit funding synergy, but of course it's nothing else than placing roughly close to EUR 1 billion in higher yield assets. And that in itself should, by the way, show up both in loan growth and in, to some extent, next year revenue growth. But for sure, this year in loan growth, you'd see a higher number than even what we just presented if we close and conclude and consolidate Summit Leasing this year. And that, of course, next year translates into at least on that balance sheet size, something in the ballpark of 100-200 basis points, at least, in incremental revenues, right?
To be fair, there is also a cost base that we absorb, so that is still a bit of piece of work. Blaž talked about the integration process, et cetera. There'll be some costs associated to restructuring, but this is all business as we understand it very well. We're very excited about welcoming Summit Leasing to our group, and we really look forward, hit the ground running, explore all the business and market opportunities that present themselves in traditional and also in non-traditional ways. We just today discussed at the board also opportunities in online distribution, et cetera.
So yes, leasing is a core part of our franchise, and, as you know, we also very successfully expand in Serbia and North Macedonia, and, of course, are very excited to have now also a footprint in Croatia. Plenty of opportunities in leasing. We always claim that EUR 2 billion is the ambition. Probably we'll revisit that ambition upwards in our next strategic outline.
And sorry, if I could just have one follow-up. Your, your outlook for 2025, those financial targets do not include Summit Leasing, is that right?
Twenty-five includes.
So that's fine.
Just 24,
On page 60, yeah.
25, of course, includes Summit Leasing. 24, frankly, the high single digit loan growth is not really accommodating for Summit Leasing, because technically we will in all likelihood start to consolidate with end of the year, and that is everything excluding Summit Leasing. If you include Summit Leasing, you run the numbers, but you know, it probably adds some EUR 600 million or EUR 800 million in leasing assets.
Instead of ECB balances.
Got it. Thank you. Thank you so much.
We are replacing ECB balances, obviously, with leasing assets, and these leasing assets have been carrying 5, 6, 7% nominal rates, right? So this is also one of the measures addressing NII sensitivity, because we are replacing something that should drop significantly with something that it will not drop to these levels.
So the loan balance will increase, but the assets won't grow?
Not necessarily much, but, you know, the structure, the structure will change, right?
The structure will change.
Yeah.
Yeah. Super. Thank you.
Thank you, Simon.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now move on to our webcast questions. The first webcast question comes from Antoon with Allianz, and I quote: "First question, two questions regarding the Addiko. In Republika Srpska, your current market share stands at 20%, while Addiko Bank holds 10%. If the acquisition of Addiko goes through, this would elevate your combined market share to nearly match that of the market leader, Nova Banka, both at roughly 30%. Given this significant increase, do you anticipate any demands from local regulators in Republika Srpska before the approval is granted? Also, if Addiko acquisition goes through, is there any point in continuing listing Addiko on Vienna Stock Exchange since NLB Group is already listed on two exchanges? Thank you.
Well, this is... These are very specific questions to something that is part of a strictly regulated formal process. So, you know, we can't speculate on what regulators would or would not do. Seemingly coming at par with other competitor signals that there should not be no problems, I guess, from regulators, but I, I can't speculate on that, clearly. So the other part of the question, I missed. What was?
The listing in the-
Ah, the listing. It's premature. It depends really on the outcome, you know? So we have offered 200% of shareholders. We will see where this ends up. There is, of course, a critical element of it, at least for us, and of course, the success of this offer, which is a success threshold of acceptance of 75% at least, right? Which means minimum 75% of voting rights need to be obtained. And this could be then 75% plus one share, or this could be, you know, 100%, and depending on the outcome, this would determine then what is the follow-up. We have had a good experience with minorities.
For example, in North Macedonia, we have a listed bank in North Macedonia with some 83% ownership, and 17% is listed, and there is a very nice coexistence. In the Commercial Bank case, where we successfully, of course, signed more than 90%, and then, of course, performed the squeeze out, we have then, of course, retreated from the stock exchange because this would be ineffective, just, you know, listing a couple of %. So it really is depending on the outcome of this offer.
The next webcast question is a follow-up question from Antoon with Allianz, and I quote: "I have a question regarding the issuance of MREL debt in countries outside of Slovenia. Who is expected to be the primary buyer of these bonds? Will they primarily primarily be absorbed by the NLB Slovenia or by high net-net worth individuals who are already client of the private banking department? Or will the MREL Bonds be offered through a public issuance on local stock exchanges? Thank you.
Well, that's a very very interesting question, whereby, of course, the regulatory purpose of MREL is pretty clear. So it is to be sold to qualified investors. So, you know, this is not to end up in the hands of, you know, private individuals in... as a basic principle of the, of the instrument. So it's going to be a combination of various possibilities. First is the intragroup lines, which we can always provide, right? The other is supranationals, which usually are participating in such issuances. There are some other institutional investors that have been investing in our, of course, notes, and might have interest to also invest in, on the subsidiary level. So it is difficult to say right now, you know, what would be the form and shape of each individual issuance of individual entities. It's going to be a combination of all.
Of course, to the possible extent, we want to keep these, these flows within the group. It is economically sensible and logical for whatever is acquired to be then actually sold in the market or, you know, obtained from the market, would follow the logical chain, you know. So supranationals are usual suspects, and then, of course, qualified international financial investors. And Archie, would you add anything?
No, just that, we will never compromise on our multiple entry point approach. Otherwise, it really depends a bit market to market. They are not at the same level of development. In some markets, we see a potential to do local issuance because there's an institutional investor base. In other markets, it's gonna be more relying on, let's say, IFIs, for example. But, indeed, it's a fair question and a fair challenge, because frankly, this instrument was conceptualized for Europe with a fairly well-developed capital market, and now applying the same to converging markets is gonna be more of a challenge. But we look forward to it, and we think we'll be well equipped.
And in some markets, it might even accelerate a bit of a, let's say, a capital market readiness, so in that sense, we wanna be part of that in a positive way and look forward to it.
That's a very important point Archie both raised, and that's the multiple point of entry. So in terms of MREL context, we want to keep our subs self-funded, right? So we will never expose the parent institute, you know, to the extent that this might jeopardize actually, the logic of this.
The next question comes from the line of Dodi Mladen with Erste Bank. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you for the call and opportunity. And congratulations on another strong quarter. I have two questions. So first one is, regarding the takeover of Addiko. I mean, I don't know if you can answer me, but, I must ask, is there any scenario in which you would drop your 75% condition at the last moment? I mean, depending on how many shares will be deposited on August 16, or you will stick firmly to that condition.
And the second question is, yesterday in the parliament here in Serbia, the third time governor said that there will be some during the fall, there will be implemented some limits on the interest rates now, besides mortgages, also on cash loans. I don't know if you have any details on this. If you have, please share. If not, then we will just wait and see what will happen. Thank you.
Okay, thank you, Mladen, for the questions. The success threshold of 75% is here to stay. We will not compromise on this condition because, of course, we want to effectively, of course, then engage in meaningfully integrate Addiko Group into the NLB Group, and this, of course, requires decisions such as of potential listing, delisting, such as of, of potential, of course, mergers, no mergers, such as of dual brands, no dual brands. And you have to have effective powers in your hands to actually execute this without-
Capital measures.
Uh, sorry?
Capital measures.
Capital measures, for example. You know, you need 75% power at the AGM simply to, you know, be actually agile enough and actually run the business safely enough, also in regulatory context, you know, predictably enough. So this is not to be compromised. 75% success threshold is here to stay, and it will not be dropped in the last second. Regarding the measures in Serbia, we've seen, of course, various restrictions in last years. So it was first the fees, then it was the housing rates, right? Now, potentially consumer rates. We are simply closely monitoring and respecting this, and of course, this has more or less material effect on, on our financials. We understand these measures, of course, as measures that go in favor strictly of clients of the banks.
So we've seen some other measures that we're trying to benefit more—to benefit the budgets of the countries, which is a bit of different logic, right? Introducing taxes, you know, or interpreting certain products differently. In this case, what National Bank of Serbia is doing, and above all, congratulations to Ms. Tabaković for the third mandate. And from the bottom of our hearts, we believe she's running excellently the monetary policy of Serbia throughout the last years. So this, we will simply sit and wait, what's going to happen and how this is going to impact. We would believe that it would not be too material of an impact, but let's see.
Thank you very much. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Joseph Robert, with PKO BP Securities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for taking my question. Excuse me, if this was already discussed during the call, I couldn't fully participate. It's about the processes that you have changed regarding the identification of stage two exposures. Namely, is the result of this revision more concentrated in other localities than Slovenia or is it more or less evenly spread throughout the geographies where you operate? And also, which types of loans have been affected mostly by these developments? Thank you.
I mean, first of all, what we are doing, we are introducing a wider rating scale. That means we differentiate more detail between clients. This has many advantages, but of course it also differentiates more or earlier in when you see a stage two. Then we have included additional criteria. Just to give you one example, if you see gambling habits, that's an early warning sign. And on geographies, well, I mean, the rating scales, that's primarily a topic for subsidiaries. The additional early warning signals well is basically distributed throughout the group. So I would say overall, relatively equally spread improvements, but that also means you know you shouldn't see now another spike in a short period.
And one indication for that is also, as I said, that simply this is now coming much closer to European averages. So what we simply see is that obviously now the way how we are looking on staging of retail clients is more comparable. And that should help us, of course, in the mid run, even more to limit NPLs, because the earlier we recognize a stage two, the earlier we will intervene and eventually also change some parameters. So on the mid run, that should help us actually to even better manage risks.
Of course, on the short run, you simply see this spike in stage two, but what you can also see is that it's not spiking then in stage three, which is logically given, given what I explained.
It is actually us consciously working more, more on soft collection and earlier restructuring as well. So it is enabling us actually to move, to move earlier and more relevantly. But yes, as Andreas says, there is no, you know, historical evidence that, you know, stage three and actual defaults, you know, would be a problem for this banking group. It is, rather, actually guiding us towards us being even more conservative and proactive in understanding our portfolios, which have so far not caused significant damage. But of course, since we are moving more aggressively, in brackets, intensively focusing on consumer lending, we want to be, of course, much more conscious about when and how to intervene, if needed.
Clear. Are you also gonna expand this rating system to cover, for example, SMEs, which stands sort of in between the retail and the proper corporate segment later in the year, for example?
I'm not sure that I copied your question.
Are you gonna apply the same process that yielded those increases in stage two retail exposures to SME, small and medium enterprises as well?
No, actually, in the corporate area, we have this wider rating scale, so you will not see a comparable move on the corporate side, no.
All right. Clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
Welcome.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone or type your question in the box.... The next question is a webcast question from our participant, Antoon from Allianz, and I quote, "Regarding your securities portfolio, can you disclose the primary countries whose government securities you are mostly invested in? Additionally, with 60% of your securities portfolio currently classified as held to maturity, do you anticipate this percentage to increase in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Thank you for the question. It's, we talk, and, and that's well disclosed in, in our detailed, accounts. So we talk basically European Union, talk a bit, a little bit of US, and of course, we talk to some extent home sovereigns. So this, this has come down over the last, I would say two, three years. But of course, the region is, something we care about and want to remain invested in, or to believe in the credit quality. But what you see as below investment grade is, in essence, our own home region. On the HTM, I think, we have, I'd say, well-defined process and policy. So things where, we, we, we take longer duration is typically in HTM.
Our securities, where we take shorter term duration, is typically in fair value, and that follows a pretty, you know, logical conception, and in that sense, I see this ratio to remain rather stable.
Next question is a follow-up question from Antoon with Allianz, and I quote: "Regarding Mobil Leasing in Croatia, do you plan to rename it after the acquisition is complete? What are your plans for its organic growth? In which direction do you want it to grow? Thank you.
We like the name. Mobil Leasing is a very universal name, and in short term, we don't intend to change it. It's simply a good name, and we will open it up. So, you know, so far it has been more or less focusing on Mercedes vehicles, and we will simply open it up to become a universal provider of leasing services and, in future, mobility services. So we have high hopes for this business to become, of course, one of the meaningful businesses in Croatian market. We understand it is a competitive market, but we also see ourselves with our, you know, adjacent regional presence, the one that can accompany Slovenian, Bosnian, Serbian, and other businesses also with their subsidiaries in Croatia as well. So we believe we can leverage this business significantly.
I wouldn't now operate with concrete numbers, but of course, multiplying it in multiple terms, it should be the normal level of ambition.
The next question is a webcast question from Nikolai with Morgan Stanley, and I quote: "Do you have an idea about the timeline for the AT1 issuance? Thank you.
Well, it's July, autumn.
Well, um-
It is coming.
We have indicated that we are open-minded. AT1, as you know, is of course a higher risk instrument. Capital markets have been very perceptive to our name, so I really appreciate also the trust of all our investors in our fixed income space. We have done a lot of work in expanding that investor base. So we are confident that if we were to access the market, it'll be perceptive and indeed it's of course a bit of a function of what happens on the M&A on one side. On the other side, we'd like AT1 as a capital markets instrument in Slovenia to be not disadvantaged as it currently is. So with withholding tax there is a positive development in this direction, so we hope that takes place.
I think it would be important for the Slovene banking space and further development of Slovene capital markets. So we would very much appreciate that the withholding tax restrictions or costs that are currently in place are falling, 'cause that would indeed substantially increase our incentives to tap the market here.
It is obviously a subject of us, how of us progressing with Addiko, because if there is, of course, not successful outcome, there is absolutely no fantasy in issuing AT1 at this point.
The next question is a webcast question from Jovan Sikimic with RBI, and I quote, "Why you have not upgraded the revenue outlook after notably lifting loan growth outlook for both 2024 and 2025, having in mind reduced NII sensitivity? Thank you.
Well, we have just barely overshot EUR 600 million, and we say we will have more than EUR 1.2 billion, right? So it is, in principle, somehow halfway consistent. You have pressures on one side, and you try to offset these pressures on the other. So, you know, we say more than the EUR 1.2 billion.
I-
It's no, no. Should we, should we do more?
We'd like to beat consensus, so, as you know us as rather conservative forecaster or outlook publisher, we'd like to keep it that way. I mean, it doesn't... because there are indeed tensions in the system, right? ECB rate functions can go faster or slower. We don't know for sure.
When they do, they do it immediately.
Yes. So in this sense, you've seen the Fed has put on pause. So if rates stay higher for longer, of course, so-
... Revenues will. You've seen the sensitivities, revenue will follow. But for now, we stay rather conservative also in that projection.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.
Thank you very much for hanging in there and listening to us, and above all, trusting our journey. After communicating the strategy, we have immediately undergone the first steps of actually proving that we are living it already, both in terms of organic evolution and in terms of clearly also M&A ambitions. We have published concrete transactions, potentially crystallizing, so we are again cordially inviting all shareholders of Addiko Group to consider tendering their shares into our offer. We believe it's fully transparent, equally treating everyone, and it's, of course, also lucrative and a favorable exit situation. We believe there is also a bright future for the Addiko Group within the NLB Group. We believe we can test ex-some experimental, you know, potential dual branding approaches and some other stuff, which is also giving future to the talents of Addiko Group.
We have really realized that there is a significant value, not only in the business itself, but above all, in talents of this business, and that's why we believe our offer is also attractive for more or less all major stakeholders, including regulators, who would, by that, get, of course, the predictable, stable, strong outcome of, you know, how this group could evolve further. Otherwise, we're looking forward really to the upcoming 5-6 years, within which we believe we would double this business, and we would, of course, also come very close or exceed EUR 1 billion of annual profits. Which would, of course, at the end of the day, also show its value in your pockets, being investors.
Thank you very much, again, for your trust so far, and already in advance for the one in the future. Take care, and all success.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.