Good morning, and welcome everyone to our full year results announcement for FY 2024. I'm Mark Aue. This is my first results presentation as the CEO of Chorus, having taken over the role earlier this year. Alongside me is Katrina Smidt, as our acting CFO. I'd like to start with an overview of how we've delivered against our plans in FY 2024. Katrina will then pick up and cover the financials and then the guidance for FY 2025. After which, I'll come back and provide an update on our capital management review and the step changes we're making in our strategy to FY 2025 and beyond, to deliver better outcomes for the longer-term horizon. We're really pleased to be reporting another positive financial result, particularly given the challenging macroeconomic environment facing New Zealand businesses, and that demonstrates the resilience of our core fiber business.
FY 2024 has reflected our continued momentum to becoming an all-fiber business with an EBITDA result at the top end of our guidance range. Demand for fiber has grown to almost 71.5%, with average monthly data usage now higher than pandemic peaks, and an expectation that both will continue to grow in line with global fiber trends. Our 50 Mb plan has successfully carved out a market niche, but we've also seen more customers choosing one gigabit or higher plans. Copper connections continued to reduce by 83,000, with 60% of those within our Chorus Fibre zone, and this reflects our ongoing acceleration of copper withdrawal. In non-fiber areas, we've also seen migration to other technologies, but overall, we see this as a positive thematic for a future exit from all of copper.
Cost management has featured heavily in the year, enabling us to partly offset expected inflationary impacts and largely holding costs flat year over year. Our fiber RAB was NZD 5.9 billion at the end of 2023, and our regulatory expenditure allowances have just been confirmed for the next four years. While we're still going through the finer details of that decision, given they were released end of last week, the allowance, as we'd see, is generally workable within our business plan. And lastly, I'd recognize, in year, we've also had substantial change in our operating model and our leadership team. However, combined with greater regulatory certainty, we have clarity on our future aspirations, the strategy to deliver it, and the capital management framework to support that, and I'll talk to that more later.
Jumping through some of the headline numbers, revenue were up 3% to NZD 1.03 billion. EBITDA growth of 4% to NZD 728 million. Growth in both really belie some of the broader macro challenges, particularly in the property sector, that we were able to fortunately offset. Capital expenditure, though, was down 6% to NZD 427 million. And we've confirmed an unimputed final dividend of NZD 0.285, in line with our guidance of NZD 0.475 per share for the full year. At a sustainability level, electricity use was down a net 3% as we switched off legacy equipment, including another 730 copper broadband cabinets.
That reduction and higher renewable generation in the grid has helped us to achieve a 39% reduction in our Scope 1 and 2 emissions from our FY 2020 base year. Our fiber network now passes 1.5 million addresses, and uptake has grown to over 71% in the year. Another 29,000 addresses have been passed, while connecting over 50,000 more. Uptake in our UFB2 areas has grown strongly to 58%, while UFB1 areas are at 75%, with both continuing to grow. There are another 200,000 or so addresses, though, where fiber is installed but not currently active. They represent clear win-back opportunity to fiber versus the cost, timing, and investment return for new installations.
We're encouraged by the strong global demand for fiber, and New Zealand ranks well among broadband leaders, at 17th in the world by the Fibre to the Home Council Europe. Their September 2023 data places us just behind Sweden and Japan, but more importantly, it validates our pathway to an 80% fiber uptake through other precedents. Also, recent OECD data shows fiber connections almost doubling to more than 200 million between late 2019 and 2023, with cable and copper connections in material decline. Over the year, we've seen a mixed change in our base at the entry level and at the top end. First, we've seen strong uptake of Home Fibre Starter, providing optionality with cost of living pressures and as a defense to fixed wireless.
Yes, we've seen some trade-down from higher plans, but that's very manageable, and we've always maintained it's better to retain a fiber customer than lose them off-net. We'd also recognize over 50% of the connection growth has come from off-net, and we may not have won it without that product in market. At the top end, 1-gigabit connections continued to grow, with almost 40% of our net adds growth taking up higher value plans, and they're now at over 25% of our customer base. Finally, business plans were up by 7,000 lines, but in a very challenging market, where we've seen a lot of closures due to economic strains. Monthly data usage keeps growing, and it's back above the 600-gigabyte levels we last saw during pandemic peaks.
In June, average fiber usage was 623 GB, with 16% of our users consuming more than a terabyte a month. The global forecasts are for data use to keep growing as more activity moves online, and those growth rates could lift exponentially, in our view, with greater streaming, 4K content, and use of AI and cloud-based applications. And the chart on the right really shows why fiber is the preferred technology to cater for that demand. Traffic on our network grew to almost 8,000 PB in the year, the equivalent of 8 billion GB. As some context, you compare that to 10 years ago, annual usage was 400 PB. Despite that growth in year, we've reduced our net electricity by 3%, with fiber carrying 94% of the traffic.... In optimization, our primary focus has been on withdrawing copper.
Lines have reduced by 83,000 in the year, and we now have fewer than 160,000 copper lines remaining. Of those, 45,000 are in areas where fiber is available, and about 2/3 have already been sent withdrawal notices. We've emptied 1,250 cabinets, with roughly an 80% retention rate for broadband customers so far. And as you can see, the benefits of copper line reduction flowing through to our reactive fault spend. FY 2023 was inflated by extreme weather events, but we're now down to NZD 25 million in a year, and it's clear the large prize is exiting copper in non-UFB areas. There's not a lot of new news on revenue growth opportunities, given some of the broader challenges in the economy and a slowdown in the property development sector.
However, our fiber expansion for 10,000 premises is underway, and positively, we've already had 25% of the planned addresses register their interest for fiber. Demand for backhaul, smart locations, and edge sensor colocation have all increased. However, we'd acknowledge this is an area that hasn't had appropriate focus relative to market opportunity. We've been more focused on growing residential access and copper withdrawal. Our new operating model that we've talked to, provides a dedicated vertical for infrastructure that has the focus, resources, and investment to leverage what we know to be an amazing portfolio of fiber assets across New Zealand. There are natural adjacencies for us to scale into, and you can expect to see a reset in this space as economic conditions moderate. I'll now hand over to Katrina for more detail on our financial results.
Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As Mark mentioned, I'm the acting CFO, and I'm happy to present a strong financial result on behalf of the Chorus team. FY 2024 results reflect resilient fiber demand, growing uptake, and ARPU, as we move to becoming an all-fiber business. As Mark said, we've had a strong focus on cost management, enabling us to partly offset expected inflationary impacts and largely hold costs flat. If we turn to the slides, we report a 4% or NZD 28 million increase in EBITDA to NZD 700 million. This was at the top end of our guidance range. Revenue lifted by NZD 30 million as fiber connections and ARPU grew. Expenses were up NZD 2 million on a reported basis, with cost management and favorable weather mostly offsetting the impact of inflationary increases across multiple expense lines.
Depreciation and amortization increased because we've been accelerating depreciation on our copper assets. Depreciation on copper assets was NZD 90 million, up NZD 11 million from the prior year. Some of those assets will be fully depreciated by the end of FY 2025. Net interest expense was up NZD 22 million, with total debt up NZD 108 million. Our weighted effective interest rate on debt lifted from 5.4% to 5.77%. This was slightly down from the half, after some interest rate swaps came into effect. Income tax expense increased by NZD 24 million. This contained a one-off non-cash cost of NZD 15 million, due to the law change stability of tax depreciation on buildings. That meant we technically booked a NZD 9 million net loss for the year. Our revenues were up NZD 30 million from FY 2023 to over NZD 1 billion.
Fiber broadband revenues were up NZD 75 million, as fiber uptake grew by 53,000 connections, and ARPU increased to NZD 55.71. Fiber premium revenues were up NZD 2 million as we saw continued demand growth for dark fiber and our backhaul services. Although legacy enterprise connections are now shifting to alternative services as we shut down legacy platforms. Copper broadband and voice revenues were down by NZD 45 million and still primarily driven by withdrawal in fiber areas. Within the field services line, the decline of NZD 3 million was primarily driven by the slowdown in the property sector. Increased demand for colocation space helped lift infrastructure revenues by NZD 2 million. Value-added network services held flat at NZD 26 million. Other revenues of NZD 4 million reflect sales from our ongoing property optimization program.
Operating expenses were largely flat to FY 2023 on a reported basis, not allowing for the extreme weather events last year. That was better than our expectations at the start of the year, driven by improved cost management. Labor costs of NZD 80 million included NZD 2 million for operating model change costs, and we've continued to insource some roles for cost savings. Network maintenance costs were down NZD 7 million, although FY 2023 included NZD 3 million for extreme weather events. The general trend remains one of reducing fault volumes, partly offset by inflation and service company costs.
Other network costs were up NZD 2 million when you allow for extreme weather costs in 2023. Part of that uplift is our property and network optimization costs, which were NZD 4 million in the year. Electricity was up NZD 3 million due to higher spot prices, despite our reduced consumption by 3%.
Other expenses were up because we increased our provision for doubtful debts and additional costs as we step into the new strategy and add support for long-term market research to help us identify new opportunities. Gross CapEx was down by NZD 27 million to NZD 427 million. So this reflects the end of the UFB rollout in FY 2023, fiber installations reducing after the peak of copper migration to fiber, and copper spend falling as we move to an all-fiber network. Within growth CapEx, NZD 205 million was sustaining CapEx, and NZD 222 million was the growth. Sustaining CapEx came in below our guidance range of NZD 220-NZD 240 million, because we released a NZD 9 million provision of network life cycles activity.
Several investment projects were also either rephased or not required during the year due to demand during the period. Net CapEx of NZD 372 million after third-party contributions reflects what we've invested in the business. After we've received NZD 55 million of third-party contributions in the year. Fiber installations and Layer 2 expenditure was NZD 182 million, with 87,000 installations completed. That was down from 92,000 installations last year. Other fiber and growth CapEx was down NZD 12 million. Within that total, new property development spend was down NZD 18 million. That line was also included NZD 4 million for the 10,000 premises network expansion that we announced in February. Fiber sustain was up NZD 6 million as more roadworks activity is attributed to fiber, and we had life cycle work on some older cable routes.
There was NZD 2 million of spend for network replacement following Cyclone Gabrielle. Customer acquisition costs were up NZD 9 million, with retailers using our incentive offers to grow connections and upgrade customers to higher speed plans. Copper spend was NZD 23 million, with NZD 12 million funded by third-party contributions. We released a NZD 6 million provision for network life cycle activity in the year. About NZD 1 million of that spend was for cyclone recovery work, and common CapEx was down slightly at NZD 60 million. We've provided this new CapEx reporting framework view based on your feedback. The RAB CapEx category aligns with our regulatory reporting categories to help make things simpler and more transparent. We also provide a split between sustaining and growth CapEx across the RAB and non-RAB categories.
We've included a historical view of this CapEx in this format in the appendices, and we can pick up any detailed questions offline. Net debt to EBITDA lifted slightly to 4.42x , with borrowings increasing by NZD 108 million across the year. We remain well below our S&P threshold of 5x . About 70% of our interest rate exposure is fixed for the next three years. Our next refinancing activity is due in mid-2025, when the first tranche of Crown financing of NZD 170 million comes due. We intend to be in market after the half-year results, and intend to refinance with a capital bond on a like-for-like basis. We've announced an unimputed final dividend of NZD 0.285 to be paid in October.
For FY 2025, guidance is NZD 0.575, and dividends will remain unimputed. EBITDA guidance is for NZD 700 million-NZD 720 million. We continue to see resilient demand for fiber, but there are two specific revenue headwinds that are outside our direct control. Firstly, our proposed price changes will be deferred by one quarter to January 2025, because we expect to be constrained by the 2024 MAR ceiling. Secondly, the reduction of some legacy network services that will roll off completely over the year. Excluding these headwinds, our underlying growth would be around 2%-4%. On OpEx, we have ongoing cost management initiatives, but we expect modest cost growth over the year. That reflects ongoing inflationary pressure from third parties and electricity spot prices. Other network costs also increase with the acceleration of our copper withdrawal program.
Gross CapEx guidance is NZD 400 million-NZD 440 million. Within that range, we expect the RAB and non-RAB proportions to be similar to FY 2024. RAB CapEx includes the remaining NZD 35 million to complete the rest of our 10,000 premises rollout, and we expect fiber installations to materially lower as we approach the end of our copper migration program. Within non-RAB CapEx, copper spend continues to decline. In sustaining CapEx, we're guiding to NZD 200 million-NZD 220 million, and this reflects a rephasing of some life cycle replacement programs to better align with future demand. I'll finish by noting that we're keeping a close eye on CapEx under our refreshed investment framework, and I will hand back to Mark.
Thanks, Katrina. Following the changes to our operating model at the start of 2024, I'm very focused on fast tracking Chorus's transition to a simpler, fiber-only digital infrastructure company. Now, regulatory clarity is essential for that, and in the last few months, we've had some crucial pieces of the puzzle now fall into place, and where we now have greater clarity over that future outlook. Our reporting in May showed our fiber RAB had grown to NZD 5.9 billion, with around NZD 105 million of wash up balances to the end of 2023. Last week, the Commission confirmed our CapEx and OpEx allowances for the next four years, and pleasingly, they were a marked improvement on the draft decision. We're still working through the detail, as I said earlier, but they are workable to shape our operations and investment, albeit with some tweaks.
In copper, the Commission's investigating whether copper should be deregulated outside fiber areas, with a decision expected end of calendar year 2025. Also helpfully, the Commission has just released a market study showing 97% of copper connections in non-fiber areas had coverage from a mobile or alternative wireless provider. That's before you get to satellite coverage that would likely take that to 100%. Considering copper network shutdowns already happening overseas, it's clear copper is well on the way to joining other outdated technologies. The thematics that we're seeing with regulatory review, that customers can access alternative technologies, and the fact that they're migrating themselves already, give us a positive outlook on being able to exit copper completely.
As part of evolving our future, we've undertaken a reset and developed an aspiration that provides the clarity and the specificity of what it is we want to become, and that is a simplified all-fiber business with 80% fiber uptake by 2030. This speaks to driving efficiency and operational excellence, a need to exit copper and transition to a fiber-only business. The 80 uptake is a connection story, and it anchors us. It's ambitious, but we believe it's achievable based on global benchmarks, and 2030 is time-bound, so we can work backwards on what it is we need to believe. This is a clear step change for the business. Now, we also need to plan over a longer term and define what it is we're trying to achieve and what success looks like. We've adopted a horizon model over 10 years with three distinct phases.
Horizon 1, our FY 2025 year, is about getting future fit for purpose, embedding the new operating model, and defining what are those seeds of change that we'll plant now to derive benefits in the future. Horizon 2, from FY 2026 to the end of FY 2029. That's about the acceleration, the benefits from our transition to an all-fiber business with growth, simplicity, and efficiency. For Horizon 3, from FY 2030 beyond, is our future state with one single technology, and that is fiber. Now, Chorus is evolving from the great network builder that it was to the great network operator, and our horizons create a distinct shift in strategy to be simpler, more focused, more competitive. An 80% fiber uptake anchors everything we do. We'll focus on penetration of fiber over ARPU and develop propositions to markets we currently don't serve.
This is about leveraging the core network that we already have. As I spoke to, the 200,000 premises where ONTs are already installed, but they're not connected. We also need to shift the conversation and raise the awareness of fiber's superiority as a broadband technology. Moving beyond the simple download speeds to the characteristics of fiber, that of quality, consistency, and reliability when compared to other wireless technologies. We need to evolve to a single technology, accelerating that copper withdrawal as rapidly as possible. We will continue to advocate for further fiber expansion, but only where those regulatory or government settings actually enable it. We need to drive efficiency and discipline, stopping the activity that doesn't deliver on our strategy, while embracing simplification and automation. We will look to right size our business as we transition to the future.
Finally, we need to leverage our assets and more effectively scale into opportunities and natural adjacencies and optimize our property portfolio, monetizing non-core assets. That could include high sites, exchanges, cabinets, poles, or copper cables, and that's a recognition of Chorus today as one of the largest property owners in the country. Now, as a follow-on from our strategy reset, we said in February we would review our capital management policy and provide an update of these results. Last week's final expenditure decision has given us clarity on the parameters. We need to be able to provide that update. We described our review as a bit of a warrant of fitness, a check that our current approach remains fit for purpose across at least the next regulatory period.
We've considered a number of inputs: our regulatory settings, our financial outlook, feedback from shareholders, a review of comparable companies, and broader macroeconomic factors. Other context has also fed into this review, including what is an optimal capital structure for a simpler infrastructure business. Appropriately returning free cash flow to shareholders for the substantial investment in fiber since 2011. A revised investment hurdles for our growth CapEx, and providing more clarity for shareholders on the future dividend path, with a focus on steady dividend growth. From the review, we've identified some key principles for our approach. First, we see ourselves operating as an essential regulated infrastructure asset. We now have the clarity for the upcoming regulatory period, and our capital allocation is underpinned by the free cash flow we see these assets now generating.
The step-up for dividends at NZD 0.575 has, in part, been driven by our solid FY 2024 results, confidence in our future operating cash flows, and a more efficient use of our balance sheet to invest in the business. A core pillar of our capital management framework is a sustainable, growing dividend that was paramount in all shareholder feedback, and our intention is to maintain that dividend growth, at least at the rate of inflation. We maintain the view that a rating of BB B is appropriate for Chorus as a digital infrastructure company. Based on the rating's downside driver of 5x , we remain of the view that 4.75x is an appropriate internal limit that allows sufficient buffer, and we are comfortable to work up to that level.
We'll use the balance sheet to fund CapEx where it meets our investment hurdle rates. To be clear, any growth investment must deliver greater shareholder value than returning it to shareholders themselves. Turning to our capital management framework, our review essentially validated that existing framework. The one change to note is our dividend payout range. That is as a proportion of net operating cash flow after deducting sustaining CapEx. Greater clarity on cash flows now that we are through the UFB rollout and the peak of fiber installations, and the clarity on future fiber expansions, means that we can now update the payout range. We've increased this from the 60%-80% range, first indicated in 2022, to a new range of 70%-90% on average over time. This range better reflects our future cash flow expectations and efficient balance sheet management.
As a final recap, we've had a solid year and result, especially in light of broader macro market downsides, and again, we see that demonstrates the resilience of fiber. Both New Zealand and global trends back fiber as essential digital infrastructure, as high quality and differentiated connectivity, and we're seeing many examples of investment into fiber, both domestically and internationally. We now have greater certainty over our future outlook, and we've updated our capital management settings at least out to the end of PQP2 in 2028. These provide us the flexibility to invest, but equally deliver on our commitment to a sustainable growing dividend, and again, that is a simplified all fiber business with 80% uptake by 2030.
This year marks a step change in what has been a very successful story to date for Chorus, but now it's a transition to a more simplified future state with one superior technology, and that is fiber. Let's go to questions on the phone line, please, operator.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Arie Dekker with Jarden. Please go ahead.
Oh, good morning. Thanks both for a very good presentation. Just in terms of the price changes, and I accept, you know, obviously it's still a proposal at this point, from January 1st, 2025. Can you just talk a little bit about how you've sort of sized those price changes, with reference to, you know, the copper migration that you're still managing in terms of the switch off, you know, some of your objectives around fiber win back, and then also ultimately that goal for 80% fiber penetration?
Yeah, sure. Morning, Arie, always good to chat. Look, I mean, I think on the pricing, there's a couple of things. We take a broader view across the market, and equally across all the plans and where we see uptake. Obviously CPI inflation is used as a baseline reference. You know, what we've done previously where we've held pricing flat on some of those plans, and then over time, that may see an increase as well, particularly where we're seeing increasing demand. Obviously, as we're switching out of copper, there's the 45,000 or so that we identify in our own area, where they've largely been given withdrawal notices already. We see that as, you know, 80% retention onto our broadband network is still reasonable.
Look, I think on pricing, what I'd secondly say is, we see a broader willingness, not both domestically but also internationally, to pay for higher speed broadbands. But it's not just speed. I think increasingly it's becoming broader than that, and as I called out, you know, the quality, the reliability, the consistency that we see of fiber. So perhaps a third thing to just note as well, I did reference that we need to step into developing further propositions and products into market, perhaps for segments that we don't currently actually serve. And we've seen that step change with the Home Fibre Starter product as well over the past year.
Perhaps some of that's to do with the economy, as well, but you're certainly seeing a take up across other segments. And so we're bearing all of those things in mind relative to the pricing, Arie, but as you say, just a proposal at the moment, we've had the feedback.
Yeah, and yeah, so are you saying you have had the feedback, or what was the feedback in terms of the home starter in particular?
Oh, look, we're still in the consultation process at the moment. So again, it's just indicating more that that's in a proposal phase before we make any final determinations.
Just turning to the strategy, you know, which I think you've outlined pretty clearly there. I mean, key is, you know, a simplified business, you know, focused on fiber, and you've talked about right sizing and efficiency. I mean, at the moment, you know, you've been managing OpEx pretty flat, maybe a little bit more, a little bit of growth in the year ahead, but it can you just sort of talk to as, you know, as the business does simplify around copper retirement and the fiber uptake, I mean, is it your expectation that in the next couple of years, you know, and Horizon 2, that we'll see some reduction, stepwise downwards reduction in the OpEx space?
Yeah, look, I think absolutely. You know, we're accelerating copper as rapidly as we can, and look, I know we've spoken to acceleration of copper withdrawal previously. This is a step change for a 2030 date. We've set a deadline, but again, you know, we talked to the thematics actually being quite encouraging in order to get out of copper completely. So we're clearly gonna see that step down in copper costs. At the same time, as we've said previously, there is a cost to actually exiting as we decommission, but over that period in Horizon 2, out to 2030, absolutely expecting those costs to reduce. Secondly, you know, yes, we absolutely think from a simpler, more efficient organization, as digital infrastructure, so how does automation play a role?
Where does operational excellence overlay? We would expect that you will see efficiencies from that, and we've clearly said that initiatives that aren't supporting the delivery of our strategy, we're going to actively turn those off.
No, that's clear, but would it be fair to say that it's too early for you to provide a bit of a quantum of what the potential is on the existing cost base?
Yeah, look, I know you'd love that. I mean, you know, look, I think you can point to copper, though, you know, for a 2030 date, and you can see both from a CapEx perspective in the new format that we've provided, you know, that range is around NZD 20 million-NZD 25 million on CapEx. I think in OpEx, when you look at the fault management, we're down to NZD 25 million on copper. Yeah, some of that will transition into fiber as the uptake increases as well, but you're going to see a pretty significant reduction there also, likewise with property maintenance and with electricity.
You're probably in the same vicinity, even just calling out those few things, at around NZD 30 million plus of OpEx, another NZD 20 million plus on capital, so you know, potentially NZD 50 million upwards for a cash flow benefit.
Yeah, no, that's great. And then just in terms of the last part of this question, the new revenue streams and that, like, and you've said there, you're gonna be disciplined as well in terms of across the business if it's not core and that, is there any material sort of cost investment being made on new revenue streams at the moment, embedded within the cost base?
Not at the moment, Arie, I suppose that's a call-out for me. We know we're leaning into that to acknowledge that our focus has been on growing residential access and on accelerating that copper withdrawal. The operating model that we've put in place with a dedicated value stream for infrastructure, I think provides that dedicated resource, investment, and focus to actually grow into that space. We're not about to do things that are outside our core business or adjacent to it, but we still see significant opportunity. T-shirt sizing that we provided before is probably still relevant from a capital investment perspective, but I think the difference now is we've provided that focus and actually having dedicated resource to step into this.
I think I'd equally note, too, it's a bit of a step change in our mindset and approach, perhaps where you might think that we were a bit of an order taker rather than an order maker. Again, I think we have some amazing infrastructure assets, and we see an opportunity for us to step in more competitively, in that space. The final one to call out, too, is a recognition on property optimization, and I can't give specifics about that because we're exploring it now. What I'd say we'd recognize is, we are one of New Zealand's largest property owners. You know, we have hundreds of exchanges, over four hundred exchanges. We have thousands of cabinets. We have a couple of hundred thousand poles, as infrastructure, high sites.
As we accelerate that withdrawal from copper, those increasingly become passive assets, some of which we have ongoing costs to maintain. We think there is a clear opportunity for us to optimize that property portfolio, either as a cost avoidance or actually as a sale, where someone else as a third party recognize greater value in them.
Yeah. Oh, thank you. And then final question, you know, you referred to it in terms of the support of data, sort of, that should hopefully be an influence on your ability to fully withdraw from copper by FY 2030, and obviously the ComCom's done that work around the rural market. Can you just sort of give a bit of an outline of, you know, what your next steps are? I mean, obviously within your existing frameworks and then the LFCs, you're managing it pretty actively, but what the next, you know, key steps Chorus are gonna take to kind of progress, being able to withdraw from copper outside of the fiber areas?
Yeah, look, I think a few things. We continue to have conversations with government and with a number of ministers, and we have been saying for quite some time that copper is not the fit for purpose technology for the future. I think that's become clearly evident with the advent of satellite with Starlink, and increasingly customers, wherever they are now, maybe 15%-16% market share that we believe of customers, again, recognizing, I think and wanting high-speed broadband that's a lot more consistent than other technologies. So we're continuing those conversations around the thematics. Likewise with the commission, as I referred earlier, you know, the 97% that was highlighted in the recent report indicates, you know, copper is not needed there.
So we have to find a pragmatic solution to exit. No, as we have noted, look, a dollar spent in copper is certainly a dollar not spent somewhere else. And from a market perspective, when you've actively got customers migrating themselves through no form of withdrawal, I think the thematics are all increasingly positive. So we have asked for ideally a date that we can work back to, and subject to that, we've provided our own one as a 2023, 2030 view.
Yeah, sort of accept all that, but are you concerned about, I guess, on those options that do exist, you know, and the ComCom highlights this as well, you know, the pricing of some of those options is clearly a premium. You know, what do you sort of see as being the solution there? You know, is there any indication from the government in terms of what they might be willing to do in terms of some sort of rural subsidy to help in the move off copper?
There hasn't been a discussion about subsidization. I think that where we're at the moment is a broader recognition, I think across all parties, that copper is a dying, outdated technology, and you're seeing other markets now completely get out of copper. I think European Council is looking at a review for copper to be fully withdrawn by 2030 as a date. So the thematics, again, are pointing to an exit from copper. You know, as we say openly, there's a substantial prize and benefit for us of just being able to exit from it. But what we need is some certainty, and whereas in fiber areas today, we have the copper withdrawal code that actually enables it. We need something similar for rural.
So thanks a lot for that.
Welcome. Thanks, Arie.
The next question comes from Brian Han with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Oh, a couple of questions on your guidance, if I may. You mentioned modest cost growth for FY 2025. Would you be able to define what modest means in relation to, say, inflation?
Sure. So look, modest cost growth across the year. There's a couple of things that we are seeing. We do expect to see we are working hard to sort of constrain the cost, and we have a cost management program in place. But we do see a lot of our cost lines are subject to inflation, like our ServCo costs, our labor costs, and rates, and also electricity. So we do see that we'll do our best to constrain that. The other area where I guess what is really driving that is we expect our other network costs to grow as we accelerate our copper withdrawal. So these are costs to exit cabinets, but also to exit exchanges as part of the property optimization.
So, while we expect some cost savings in that area to partially offset that, that's, that's predominantly where we see the growth coming from.
Brian, maybe just to touch on, because I think, you know, perhaps we all have a very subjective view of what we consider modest to be, but you can think low single digit growth.
Okay, great. And also, you guys mentioned expected reduction in legacy network services. Now, are you calling that out because you expect that reduction to be bigger than usual?
We are. So look, we've been monetizing some of our legacy platforms for quite some time, and we have been calling out that we're expecting some of those revenues to fall away. However, they have continued. With the accelerated copper withdrawal, we are calling out that there will be a bit of a step change in FY 2025, as some of those platforms shut down.
The distinction to that, Brian, is it's different than other legacy revenues that you sort of just expect to tail off over time. These are network service revenues with another partner that we've actually been extending and leveraging for some time, as plans have been put in place to actually roll off those. This is, as Katrina has noted, more of a headwind that's outside our direct control. It's going to happen over the course of this year. That's quite a distinct shift.
That's helpful. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Brian.
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. The next question comes from Phil Campbell with UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Morning, guys. Just a few quick ones from me. Just interested in the kind of medium term guidance for the sustaining CapEx. Obviously I saw it kind of, you know, the last result was gonna go up to NZD 220 million-NZD 240 million, and it's come back down to a NZD 200 million-NZD 220 million range for the next year. But is that just a kind of a timing issue on certain spend, and then medium term it would go back up to the NZD 220 million-NZD 240 million? So that's kind of the first question. Then the second one was just in terms of the kind of capital management policy, just whether or not kind of imputation gets taken into account in that decision?
Yeah. Hey, Phil. So look, on the first one, from a medium term, yeah, look, ballpark, I think you're spot on. What we've recognized is that range though, on the NZD 220 million-NZD 240 million that we'd provided previously, that was relevant at the time. Some of the things though, that we've stepped through the year, and looking at a real disciplined approach and timing of when that investment drops and the relative returns, some of those life cycle programs we've actually deferred out to future years rather than doing them now. And you could consider, for example, Hyperfibre being one of those, and that was actually part of the Commission's last result last week, sorry, that-...
You know, recognizing that deferral on Hyperfibre spend, where although we've augmented a lot of the network today and is ready for that future demand, that we're certain will still come, in actual fact, we've now deferred that out, and we're doing only reactive demand now for Hyperfibre, if you were to ask for it, for example, so that spend, though, as use cases evolve, as consumer demand evolves, as adoption of AI, et cetera, et cetera, we certainly see that that's only going one way and likely to be exponential, but it's just a rephasing on some of that life cycle that would come back over time. Second point on capital management policy.
Look, yes, you know, from a broad-based view on imputation, but, you know, as you know, we're a low cash tax paid, so that's more likely to be out over a medium term. But our broader capital management framework, we've looked out to at least the end of PQP2 , but also into the broader PQP3 as well. But obviously, as we approach that PQP3 period, you'd expect we're going to do a review. But that's, again, more of that warrant fitness check that, like we've done today.
Great. Then the other one was just, you might not be able to answer this question, but just on terms of S&P and the way that they rate Chorus, 'cause I think at the moment it's a regulated corporate. You know, would there be, you know, in your kind of thinking, do you think there's a chance that S&P could go and rate you as a regulated utility? And what would kind of be required for them to be able to do that?
Yeah, so couple of things. Firstly, you know, as I said earlier, we see a BB B rating as appropriate. Secondly, I'd say we're not actively having conversations with S&P. But more broadly, what we would recognize is there have been previous discussions in an S&P view, that if they were to see that consistency and from a regulatory perspective and sustainable earnings, and then equally the resilience to wireless substitution, then they might take a different view as a broader regulated entity and rating change.
Great. Awesome. Would you expect any timing on when they might look at doing that, or be another twelve months away?
No, look, I couldn't speculate and you know, you're seeing the rollout of the 5G networks to date. You know, pleasingly, we'd look at it from a fixed wireless perspective, albeit as you would well know, there's not a lot of information that comes out now with only one provider really reporting it. You know, if you look at IDC and you look at the results from last week with Spark, it's pretty flat, and you're not seeing a significant uplift there. Look, I think you know, back to your S&P question, I think there's probably a broader consideration over a more medium term.
Great. Awesome. Thanks, Mark.
Thanks, Phil.
Your next question comes from Aaron Ibbotson with Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Good morning, and thanks for the presentation. I just have a little, sort of, off-piste question here. Just on average data usage that you're seeing, if you could provide some more color, Mark, with your experience as well, you know? So, you know, we talk about that it's a given that, you know, data usage is gonna continue to grow, sort of, quote, unquote, "exponentially." But, you know, if you look over the last four or five years, it clearly has slowed down quite a lot, and we're looking at some sort of mid-single digit type growth at the moment, which, if you think about, you know, long-term technology, clearly something that wireless can keep up with.
So, I'm just keen to hear your thoughts on what's gonna drive increased data usage, if anything, and, you know, if you're seeing any sort of sub-trends within your overall trends. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Aaron, and good morning. You know, as we've noted, we're back above pandemic peaks. That's not a surprise to us. Perhaps we might have seen it tick up a little. We would have expected to see it tick up a little bit faster, but I think it's actually starting to rise now. In the July month end, we're up again. We've gone into the 630 s, I can say, and we've now got 17% of our base using more than a terabyte. So you know, we're seeing that customer usage in general increase.
What I think will happen, though, and it's, you know, it's my personal view, but it's backed also by a lot of the global trends that you would see, is that growth will continue to grow and potentially exponentially grow with the adoption of AI and cloud-based apps in particular. But I think for us, too, that adoption more of 4K content and more as more streaming goes online, I think we're just going to see that generally increase. We've said before that going to 4K content alone would literally double. You know, you'd be at 1. 2 TB if you had all streaming come online. I'm sorry, all TV comes online, you're at 2.5 TB . You look at other markets around the world, they are growing at that pace.
I think the interesting thing for us, that we take comfort in, is that kind of expansion requires a high-quality, differentiated connectivity network. That's fiber. And yes, given I've been around the industry for a long while, and on the other side, for mobile, it's not something that you'd see the wireless networks actually coping from a capacity and/or a congestion perspective. So I would look as a reference point to T-Mobile in the U.S., who had pushed really hard on a fixed wireless basis into 5G, particularly as customers are rolling off cable. They are now actively acquiring fiber companies or fiber assets, partnerships, because they've openly recognized that they have concerns about some of the future constraints on capacity and congestion.
So again, we feel very, very well placed to take advantage of that future demand, and we feel it's going to grow exponentially over time, with probably a couple of step changes.
Thank you. Sure.
Thanks, Aaron.
There are no further questions at this time, and I'll hand back to Mark for closing remarks.
Thank you. Thanks, everyone. Look, it's, again, as a recap, it's been a really solid FY 2024 year. There's been a lot of change in the business. There's been a lot of change in the macro market externally, but we recognize FY 2025 going forward as a real step change in our strategy. We've now got the clarity around our aspiration and what we think we wanna be in that future, and what does success look like. We've got the clarity around a ten-year horizon model with three distinct phases, and we're stepping into that actively. You can expect to see a more agile, simpler, more efficient, and more competitive Chorus.
We think the changes that we've made earlier in the year to our operating model, now aligned with our strategy, aligned with the regulatory clarity, and aligned with our capital management framework, are setting us up really well to take advantage of both trends that we see today, but equally as they evolve in the future. Thanks very much for attending. We'll look forward to speaking with you all soon.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.